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Could Johnson be planning to sack Sunak? – politicalbetting.com

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  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,113
    edited August 2021
    Charles said:

    Fishing said:

    I am in California at the moment, and was talking to a well-connected friend in Sacramento about the likelihood of a recall of the Governor, Newsom. I have to say this wasn't on my radar at all, but it certainly sounds like there could be a fascinating race to succeed him. Apparently there are likely to be dozens of candidates, so the next Governor may well win with 15% of the vote. California is a heavily Democratic state, but even the Republicans there might be able to manage that, if they can unite around one charismatic figure a la Arnie.

    Just for clarity, California is around 60/40 Democrat/GOP. Democratic dominance is partly down to disorganisation on the part of the Republicans and the Democrats changing the electoral rules to entrench partisan advantage
    It's even a little more than that - registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by 46% to 24% - almost 2:1. It's actually even worse for the Republicans than that because independents lean Democrat, and because ideological divides are stark, meaning the number of votes up for grabs is relatively small.

    https://www.ppic.org/publication/california-voter-and-party-profiles/

  • Fishing said:

    Charles said:

    Fishing said:

    I am in California at the moment, and was talking to a well-connected friend in Sacramento about the likelihood of a recall of the Governor, Newsom. I have to say this wasn't on my radar at all, but it certainly sounds like there could be a fascinating race to succeed him. Apparently there are likely to be dozens of candidates, so the next Governor may well win with 15% of the vote. California is a heavily Democratic state, but even the Republicans there might be able to manage that, if they can unite around one charismatic figure a la Arnie.

    Just for clarity, California is around 60/40 Democrat/GOP. Democratic dominance is partly down to disorganisation on the part of the Republicans and the Democrats changing the electoral rules to entrench partisan advantage
    It's even a little more than that - registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by 46% to 24% - almost 2:1. It's actually even worse for the Republicans than that because independents lean Democrat, and because ideological divides are stark, meaning the number of votes up for grabs is relatively small.

    https://www.ppic.org/publication/california-voter-and-party-profiles/

    Which shows the value of a star, charismatic candidate, like Arnie, or Reagan or our own dear Boris.
  • Jason Kenny wins gold by half the track. 21 in all.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,024

    Jason Kenny wins gold by half the track. 21 in all.

    With one more potential boxing gold to come. Stupendous Games for Great Britain
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,058
    Just bet on Jason Kenny at 5 on Betfair for SPOTY
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 11,448
    edited August 2021

    Just bet on Jason Kenny at 5 on Betfair for SPOTY

    Seven golds. It is a definite possibility. He is (almost) bound to be nominated but on the night, he might lose much of the cycling bloc vote to the young BMX bikers and Matt Walls who we've almost forgotten about from the first week. Still, 5s (4/1) is a good position.
  • No medal for Laura Kenny. Sixth.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,384
    Surely Jason and Laura Kenny must both get nominated.

    Both won one gold + one silver.

    Jason now most successful GB Olympian ever and Laura now most successful GB female Olympian ever.

    Obvious problem will be split vote.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,384
    Cavendish will also split Cycling vote if nominated - likely but not certain.
  • Just bet on Jason Kenny at 5 on Betfair for SPOTY

    Seven golds. It is a definite possibility. He is (almost) bound to be nominated but on the night, he might lose much of the cycling bloc vote to the young BMX bikers and Matt Walls who we've almost forgotten about from the first week. Still, 5s (4/1) is a good position.
    Lol. Actually I was thinking of Tom Pidcock! I guess that proves my point.

    So Olympic golds in cycling for Tom Pidcock, Matt Walls, Charlotte Worthington, Beth Shriever, both Kennys and the others from the team golds! Add Mark Cavendish from the TdF and the cycling vote could be hopelessly split depending who is nominated.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,384
    One standalone gold will only get you nominated if some exceptional reason.

    To be sure, you will have to have at least one gold, combined with other medals at this or previous games.

    I count six just about certain Olympic nominees:

    J Kenny
    L Kenny
    Daley
    Whitlock
    Peaty
    Scott
  • New thread.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    It's the story of so many British Governments - the breakdown in relations between Numbers 10 and 11.

    There are two types of Chancellor - the ambitious and the technocratic. The former has men like Osborne, Brown, Heath, Callaghan, Jenkins, Healey and Sunak among others, men who expect to be if not the next Prime Minister of leader of their party then to be a very strong contender for that post.

    On the other, you have the "money men" such as Barber, Lawson, Darling and to an extent Lamont. They have reached the top of the political tree and want to be left to do their job competently and with the minimum interference from next door.

    Yet, it makes no difference - the relationship breaks down as trust or confidence is lost.

    In this respect, the decline of the Johnson-Sunak relationship is of no great surprise.

    The second part of it is this - Johnson is safe as Conservative leader until both the following conditions are met - a) he looks like a loser and b) someone else looks like a winner.

    No party removes a leader until or unless there is a better alternative in terms of electability (or ensuring backbenches in marginal seats keep their jobs).

    Heath was never Chancellor.
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