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The odds here on Boris staying till 2024 should be longer – politicalbetting.com
The odds here on Boris staying till 2024 should be longer – politicalbetting.com
One of the big political betting features of the past couple of months is how much the betting markets over-stated Tory chances of retaining Chesham & Amersham and taking Batley & Spen. For long periods with the former there was a lot of money going the Tories as a 95% chance and even on the eve of the election you could have got 10/1 or better with Betfair on the LDs.
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https://www.espn.co.uk/olympics/summer/2012/story/_/id/8133052/athletes-spill-details-dirty-secrets-olympic-village-espn-magazine
Remarkable how hard it's been historically to be PM for 5+ years, though we seem to be in a period of long stretches in office for parties.
But that's not quite this bet because the GE could be 2023 and he might lose and thus be gone by 2024.
After the royal bloodline.
The longer term graph shows that this data is very variable day to day. Even though it is comparing 7 averages.
This is what we have seen in previous reductions in cases, the fall in cases leads the fall in testing.
A deaf woman who complained about a lack of sign language in Covid briefings has successfully sued the Cabinet Office.
Katie Rowley, from Leeds, took the Government to the High Court, arguing that it had breached obligations to make the Downing Street broadcasts accessible to deaf people under equality legislation.
Ms Rowley, 36, who was pregnant during the pandemic, said the stress she suffered from being unable to access crucial information about the virus had impacted her pregnancy and well-being.
The actor and writer is now set to be awarded compensation after a judge agreed that the lack of British Sign Language (BSL) interpreters amounted to discrimination against her.
Ms Rowley's legal win could pave the way for hundreds of the 73,000 BSL users in England to win similar claims for damages. Chris Fry, her solicitor, is representing 350 others who argue they were affected.
Mr Justice Fordham, who handed down the ruling on Wednesday, said damages would be assessed by a judge in a county court at a later date.
Mr Fry said: "Ensuring that information is provided in an accessible format can rarely be more important than in the midst of a pandemic.
"This case has brought deaf people together in the most remarkable way to challenge the Government to do better, and to fulfil what we say are its obligations under the Equality Act. It's about time that the deaf community is 'levelled up' by this Government."
Amanda Casson-Webb, of the Royal Association for Deaf people (RAD), said: "We want to see deaf BSL users fully involved and included in every aspect of life. Deaf people should be able to access information independently and on a par with the rest of society.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/28/deaf-woman-wins-compensation-fight-against-government-lack-sign/
Confirmation that all of the high case level local authorities are in significant decline, and there are no local authorities in significant growth.
80% he leads into the GE.
If he does, 66% he comes out of it still as PM. So a composite 4/5 x 2/3 = 8/15.
Pretty much bang on the 55% in fact.
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-07-28/innova-pasaca-covid-17-antigen-test-british-uk-government
The Innova scandal ought to be fatal.
(Some of this FPT)
Witness also the vaccines.
(This, BTW, is sarcasm.)
https://www.politico.eu/article/how-astrazeneca-threw-away-its-shot/
...Ritchie is also upset. He believes AstraZeneca was used as a “scapegoat” at a time when the EU was struggling to ramp up vaccinations. Macron calling the vaccine quasi-ineffective will "stick forever," he adds. And he calls the EU’s lawsuit against the drugmaker "morally untenable" given that the company is producing the most vaccines for the globe.
But there's still the hardest pill for Ritchie to swallow: What do all these setbacks mean for his life-long goal of making vaccines affordable and accessible around the world?
"The thing that terrifies me more than anything else is that the one vaccine that's not-for-profit is the one that has been dumped on over and over and over again," he said. He points out that no other drugmaker offered to produce at such a low cost — even Pfizer got the U.S. government to offset its costs to supply COVAX.
He made clear he doesn't represent AstraZeneca or make decisions for the company, but if he did, "I would not sign up for a deal like this ever again."
“Who is going to sign up to do nonprofit supply ever again?" he asked...
So Keir will make Britain the best place to work - unless you work for @UKLabour He has made 90 staff redundant. But is also recruiting workers on insecure temporary contracts with worse employment conditions #FutureOfWork
https://twitter.com/HackneyAbbott/status/1420290283732930560?s=20
How long before it is outlawed and changes football totally
Is it corruption, do you think, or just incompetence?
at the Lighthouse Lab in Glasgow yesterday celebrating the collaboration between people, institutions and businesses across the whole of the UK to defeat COVID-19.
https://twitter.com/cabinetofficeuk/status/1420413296990117889?s=20
Still, the whole idea of a sign-language interpreted opera is quite spectacularly bonkers, given that virtually the entire audience relies on the surtitles, and that if you're so deaf that you are relying on sign-language, you're not going to be getting much out of the opera in the first place.
This morning my wife found £20 in our back garden. This time, just to be different, it was an RBS note.
That's £60 in the past week!
https://www.yachtsinternational.com/yachtlife/drowning-doesnt-look-like-drowning
Red Bull believe a one-race ban for Lewis Hamilton is appropriate punishment for his collision with Max Verstappen at Silverstone and that is what they will push for when they meet race stewards in Hungary tomorrow [Thursday].
The championship rivals made contact on the first lap of the British Grand Prix 11 days ago, which sent Verstappen hurtling across the gravel at 180mph and into a tyre wall. Hamilton was handed a ten-second penalty for being “predominantly” at fault but went on to win the race.
Red Bull have exercised their right to review the incident because they do not think the penalty handed to Hamilton was sufficient, particularly given that Verstappen ended up in hospital for “precautionary checks”, while the seven-times world champion still managed to win his home race.
FIA stewards have called Red Bull and Mercedes to a hearing, which will be conducted over video, at the Hungaroring tomorrow before this weekend’s race, the last ahead of the summer break.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/red-bull-to-demand-one-race-ban-for-lewis-hamilton-over-max-verstappen-crash-dbnv3b362
I actually found a fantastic horde of notes whilst out walking- huge values in total. It was literally monopoly money, but actually I was equally pleased as if it had been real.
They didn't tend to end well.
@DPJHodges
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The job of the RNLI is to rescue people in danger at sea. It isn’t to ask them their migration status, then make a decision on whether to rescue them or not. This isn’t a difficult one.
He might choose to leave because he chooses to
He might be toppled by the party anyway
He might lose (or not win) a 2023 (even 2022) election and leave
Ditto and be toppled
Act of God/medical
Black swan/non Boris proof scandal/a Labour leader so outstanding that Boris clearly can't beat her/him (call it a Red Swan, and about as likely)
A bet that he leaves 2024 or later is a bet that he will do 5 years (almost) minimum, which is a long time, and a bet that he will probably win a probable pre 2024 election.
Although I think he will in fact be Tory leader in 2024 having won an election in 2022/3 I agree that the probabilities are in truth against it. Mike Smithson is (as always) right. In this case I favour the possibility over the probability. Favourites don't always win. Boris should be 38-40% not 55%.
In practice it's worked quite well. Of course it doesn't find all cases (although it does better on the most contagious ones), and of course it would be better if the tests were administered by a trained healthcare worker, if we had any spare and available in every home, but so what? This is about risk reduction, not risk elimination. Simplicity and convenience are major virtues. Not letting the best be the enemy of the good should be the watchword in a global pandemic.
But I would have thought that lending him £500k at 8% pa interest to be repaid as a first charge on post PM earnings would be a reasonable investment
"The two briefings found to be in breach of the Equality Act were on Sep 21 and Oct 12, in which there were no sign language interpreters either in person or superimposed by broadcasters. The other briefings on the virus, totalling more than 170, were not found to have unlawfully breached the Act."
The Government's argument, so far as reported, was that the applicant could access signed versions via the BBC News Channel or other broadcasters, or online. Therefore it basically admitted these two instances and I think it is weird that it is being framed as a big defeat(?)
I bet it'd make the local papers, with a picture of you pointing at the garden with a baffled look on your face.
Taking them on these days would be like (in the old days) taking on (as Macmillan said) The Brigade of Guards, the Roman Catholic Church and the National Union of Mineworkers.
The fact that Macmillan's famous words now require an extensive historical footnote shows how times change.
His team said it would be shortly overturned but I've not seen or heard anything.
That might impact his creditworthiness.
They were super-conservative for many years, and then became super aggressive. I presume they just funded it from their long-standing assets. So far as I know though they employed the worst people at the highest salaries. And basically went bust, having not achieved anything.
I'd be interested if anyone knows more or can correct any mistakes above.
Trafford General: Lightning strike sets hospital roof on fire
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-58002628
Eg the recent Euro quarter final would have been England 1 Ukraine 0. So we'd still have got through to the semis.
But that's just one example. I bet there would be some big changes to the record books. Wouldn't surprise me if it means Arsenal get more PL titles.
Seems like a good business opportunity for one of those virtual reality headset type things to develop a heading training program that doesnt involve actual heading.
('Brigade' - weird!)