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The odds here on Boris staying till 2024 should be longer – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited July 28 in General
imageThe odds here on Boris staying till 2024 should be longer – politicalbetting.com

One of the big political betting features of the past couple of months is how much the betting markets over-stated Tory chances of retaining Chesham & Amersham and taking Batley & Spen. For long periods with the former there was a lot of money going the Tories as a 95% chance and even on the eve of the election you could have got 10/1 or better with Betfair on the LDs.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,907
    test
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,713
    Test
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,696
    I think that Boris has a greater chance than 55% of being the leader (and PM) going into the next election.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,696
    Cases by specimen date

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,696
    edited July 28
    Cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,696
    England PCR positivity

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 96,536
    I would have been first but for the vanilla SNAFU.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 96,536
    On topic, I'll say it again, Boris Johnson's finances means being PM is very bad for him in the short term.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,741
    Do we know the constituencies with the least educated electorates?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,696
    UK case summary

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,696
    UK hospitals

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,696
    UK deaths

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  • MattWMattW Posts: 9,983
    12th (it says here)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    Late crashing into the new thread like the British rowers....
  • MattWMattW Posts: 9,983
    FPT:
    felix said:

    I find the BBC headline on Biles rather weird...Why 'superhuman' Simone Biles could change attitudes

    Isn't the whole issue being that she isn't superhuman, she isn't a robot that can perform perfectly 100 times out of 100 regardless of everything else.

    TOPPING said:

    AlistairM said:

    AlistairM said:

    maaarsh said:

    AlistairM said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AlistairM said:

    Dressage should really not be at the Olympics. It is not a sport. Even though we seem to be quite good at it.

    Genuine question though. *Why are there separate mens and womens events for it? Does being one gender give a significant advantage? What about the horse's gender? Does a male rider have to compete on a male horse and female riders on female horses? If not, why not?

    To my eye it looks like the horse does all the hard work and the rider just sits there. It is like figure skating for horses. **Might as well give Olympic medals for choreography. That would at least be honest.

    It is even worse than having all the umpteen different swim medals for swimming with different strokes. Should just be freestyle. ***Otherwise why aren't there skipping, hopping and running backwards competitions on the track?

    * There aren't
    ** The choreography is scored in the individual competition.
    *** Walking is included in the program of events.
    * Good
    ** Should give the performance medals to the horses then
    *** Walking shouldn't be an event
    Pace Stephen fry, walking is like a competition to see who can whisper the loudest... Had the swimming debate yesterday with the wife. I think it could be restricted to who can go the fastest (which would be freestyle). Always thought it a bit unfair how many medals swimmers can amass. Also think that the distances are odd too. 100 m athletics is very different to 200, 400, 800 and 1500. Are the equivalent in swimming so different? I’d argue not.
    Makes me smile to see the BBC get so excited about the sprinting ability of Adam Peaty - of course as a breaststroke specialist he's one of the slowest swimmers at the Olympics with even alsorans in the other events quicker.
    Adam Peaty I believe has some freak genetic double-jointedness which makes him naturally pre-disposed to being great at breast stroke. He clearly won the genetic lottery when it comes to all the characteristics needed to be good at that specific stroke.

    To give you an idea of how good he is as a result, Adrian Moorhouse set a WR for 100m breaststoke in 1990 of 1:01.49. Peaty's WR is now 56.88. That is 5 seconds, or 7.5% faster. If they had been in the same race when setting their WRs, Moorhouse would have been 7.5m behind Peaty.

    The 100m freestyle WR is 46.91 (interestingly set way back in 2009) and so breaststroke is nowhere close to that. Peaty's breaststroke would be competitive with the Peter Fick in freestyle. Peter Fick set the freestyle WR in 1934, 1935 and 1936!

    I do think there should be different distances in swimming. I just don't think there should be all the different strokes, just freestyle. Don't get me started on the medleys! That would be like getting a track competitor to cover 400m - 100m hopping, 100m skipping, 100m running backwards and 100m normal running. Frankly ridiculous.
    Triathlon? Any -athlon?
    The "thlons" mostly (modern pentathlon aside) are all genuine sporting endeavours using higher, faster or further. Now if the triathlon started introducing different events where they had to swim butterfly and ride a unicycle then I think I might lose it.
    Triathlon isn't a test of cycling ability. The good swimmer/runners can just ride behind a domestique or a rival.
    I think I disagree with that. Although of the three disciplines, I'd argue swimming requires much more technique to go fast than running and cycling.

    I love triathlon; could never do one though, unless the swimming section was the three metre sink. Which I'd win.

    Once.
    Some perv came up with a way to watch women cycling and running in swim suits. That's triathlon.
    If I were attracted to blokes, I would be glued to the Men's "synchro". Bleedin' heck all those abs and whatnot and teeny tiny trunks.

    Ooh-er.
    Speaking as one who is I prefer more clothes and more imagination..
    OK. Here you go:

    https://www.espn.co.uk/olympics/summer/2012/story/_/id/8133052/athletes-spill-details-dirty-secrets-olympic-village-espn-magazine
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,696
    Case rate changes

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,696
    Age related data

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  • MattWMattW Posts: 9,983
    Roger said:

    Do we know the constituencies with the least educated electorates?

    What value are you apportioning to a 21C degree?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,696
    Age related data scaled to 100K

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 68,915
    edited July 28
    If Boris is petty about such things, then he'll want to fight at least 2 elections since Cameron came top in two, albeit only a slim majority in one.

    Remarkable how hard it's been historically to be PM for 5+ years, though we seem to be in a period of long stretches in office for parties.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 24,394

    I think that Boris has a greater chance than 55% of being the leader (and PM) going into the next election.

    So do I. I'd make it 80%.

    But that's not quite this bet because the GE could be 2023 and he might lose and thus be gone by 2024.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 68,915

    I would have been first but for the vanilla SNAFU.

    You'll always be first in our hearts.

    After the royal bloodline.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 638

    Case rate changes

    image
    image

    That bounce back up in case rate changes is slightly worrying. Have we just seen the football peak work through, and now we're getting the "opening up" rise? I hope not.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 8,759
    Roger said:

    Do we know the constituencies with the least educated electorates?

    Would be vastly labour voting areas.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,696
    kinabalu said:

    I think that Boris has a greater chance than 55% of being the leader (and PM) going into the next election.

    So do I. I'd make it 80%.

    But that's not quite this bet because the GE could be 2023 and he might lose and thus be gone by 2024.
    I would still stay higher than 55% he makes it to the next election and wins.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 2,356
    England hospital data looks a lot like a flat line on admissions for the last 7 days, rather promising and a bit sooner than expected.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    I see "reckless" has become the new "confusing" when responding to changes in policy over COVID.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,696
    maaarsh said:

    England hospital data looks a lot like a flat line on admissions for the last 7 days, rather promising and a bit sooner than expected.

    There may or may not be something there - the fall in cases has been going on long enough to start something, though.

    image
    image
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,071
    mwadams said:

    Case rate changes

    image
    image

    That bounce back up in case rate changes is slightly worrying. Have we just seen the football peak work through, and now we're getting the "opening up" rise? I hope not.
    FTPT
    Alistair said:

    Update on Alistair's half baked theory

    The England only figure is: 24367
    Extrapolating the May 1st to June 14th Exponential best fit to today would give you: 25733

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,696
    mwadams said:

    Case rate changes

    image
    image

    That bounce back up in case rate changes is slightly worrying. Have we just seen the football peak work through, and now we're getting the "opening up" rise? I hope not.
    That is a slowing down in the rate of fall. For a single day.

    The longer term graph shows that this data is very variable day to day. Even though it is comparing 7 averages.

    image
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 1,454
    Are we still testing as many?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 638

    mwadams said:

    Case rate changes

    image
    image

    That bounce back up in case rate changes is slightly worrying. Have we just seen the football peak work through, and now we're getting the "opening up" rise? I hope not.
    That is a slowing down in the rate of fall. For a single day.

    The longer term graph shows that this data is very variable day to day. Even though it is comparing 7 averages.

    image
    Ah - that is a much more useful chart.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 1,454

    Roger said:

    Do we know the constituencies with the least educated electorates?

    Would be vastly labour voting areas.
    more likely red wall areas
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,696

    Are we still testing as many?

    Testing is down less (-14.4% WoW) than cases (-36.1%)

    This is what we have seen in previous reductions in cases, the fall in cases leads the fall in testing.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 96,536
    Such good news, the deaf are so often ignored.

    A deaf woman who complained about a lack of sign language in Covid briefings has successfully sued the Cabinet Office.

    Katie Rowley, from Leeds, took the Government to the High Court, arguing that it had breached obligations to make the Downing Street broadcasts accessible to deaf people under equality legislation.

    Ms Rowley, 36, who was pregnant during the pandemic, said the stress she suffered from being unable to access crucial information about the virus had impacted her pregnancy and well-being.

    The actor and writer is now set to be awarded compensation after a judge agreed that the lack of British Sign Language (BSL) interpreters amounted to discrimination against her.

    Ms Rowley's legal win could pave the way for hundreds of the 73,000 BSL users in England to win similar claims for damages. Chris Fry, her solicitor, is representing 350 others who argue they were affected.

    Mr Justice Fordham, who handed down the ruling on Wednesday, said damages would be assessed by a judge in a county court at a later date.

    Mr Fry said: "Ensuring that information is provided in an accessible format can rarely be more important than in the midst of a pandemic.

    "This case has brought deaf people together in the most remarkable way to challenge the Government to do better, and to fulfil what we say are its obligations under the Equality Act. It's about time that the deaf community is 'levelled up' by this Government."

    Amanda Casson-Webb, of the Royal Association for Deaf people (RAD), said: "We want to see deaf BSL users fully involved and included in every aspect of life. Deaf people should be able to access information independently and on a par with the rest of society.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/28/deaf-woman-wins-compensation-fight-against-government-lack-sign/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,226
    rcs1000 said:

    Test

    Smithsons getting a bit testy...
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 2,356
    https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1420408482000510979

    Confirmation that all of the high case level local authorities are in significant decline, and there are no local authorities in significant growth.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 24,394

    kinabalu said:

    I think that Boris has a greater chance than 55% of being the leader (and PM) going into the next election.

    So do I. I'd make it 80%.

    But that's not quite this bet because the GE could be 2023 and he might lose and thus be gone by 2024.
    I would still stay higher than 55% he makes it to the next election and wins.
    For me -
    80% he leads into the GE.
    If he does, 66% he comes out of it still as PM. So a composite 4/5 x 2/3 = 8/15.
    Pretty much bang on the 55% in fact.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 855
    I think this will hit Johnson and his incompetent Conservative government, just as soon as the media pick up on it properly.

    https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-07-28/innova-pasaca-covid-17-antigen-test-british-uk-government

    The Innova scandal ought to be fatal.
    (Some of this FPT)
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 2,356

    mwadams said:

    Case rate changes

    image
    image

    That bounce back up in case rate changes is slightly worrying. Have we just seen the football peak work through, and now we're getting the "opening up" rise? I hope not.
    That is a slowing down in the rate of fall. For a single day.

    The longer term graph shows that this data is very variable day to day. Even though it is comparing 7 averages.

    image
    Nice confirmation that the decline we're seeing this time is steeper than the end of the last wave - was a quite helpful post here the other day noting that makes a lot of sense given delta's higher R which makes the population immunity margin between significant growth and significant decline much narrower.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,245

    On topic, I'll say it again, Boris Johnson's finances means being PM is very bad for him in the short term.

    Surely he can just securitise his future earnings?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 25,813
    ClippP said:

    I think this will hit Johnson and his incompetent Conservative government, just as soon as the media pick up on it properly.

    https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-07-28/innova-pasaca-covid-17-antigen-test-british-uk-government

    The Innova scandal ought to be fatal.
    (Some of this FPT)

    Yes, because we should have done tests and due diligence for a couple of years before ordering initial samples for a wider phase-II trial. Then, in 2025, we should have ordered a few million tests.

    Witness also the vaccines.

    (This, BTW, is sarcasm.)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,066
    ClippP said:

    I think this will hit Johnson and his incompetent Conservative government, just as soon as the media pick up on it properly.

    https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-07-28/innova-pasaca-covid-17-antigen-test-british-uk-government

    The Innova scandal ought to be fatal.
    (Some of this FPT)

    So you keep saying. No-one else does.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 96,536
    Charles said:

    On topic, I'll say it again, Boris Johnson's finances means being PM is very bad for him in the short term.

    Surely he can just securitise his future earnings?
    Apparently he can't on ethical grounds, and given his body shape, there's no guarantee those future earnings will be realised.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 24,394
    Charles said:

    On topic, I'll say it again, Boris Johnson's finances means being PM is very bad for him in the short term.

    Surely he can just securitise his future earnings?
    Yep, issue a Boris Bond. Not that it'd get into my portfolio. No junk for me.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,489
    If I had to pick an institution it is less wise to instigate a culture war with than a victorious England football team in the middle of a major tournament, it would probably be the RNLI.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    edited July 28

    If I had to pick an institution it is less wise to instigate a culture war with than a victorious England football team in the middle of a major tournament, it would probably be the RNLI.

    victorious England football team ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,956

    ClippP said:

    I think this will hit Johnson and his incompetent Conservative government, just as soon as the media pick up on it properly.

    https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-07-28/innova-pasaca-covid-17-antigen-test-british-uk-government

    The Innova scandal ought to be fatal.
    (Some of this FPT)

    Yes, because we should have done tests and due diligence for a couple of years before ordering initial samples for a wider phase-II trial. Then, in 2025, we should have ordered a few million tests.

    Witness also the vaccines.

    (This, BTW, is sarcasm.)
    The government announced this month that new studies show the Innova test is effective at detecting the Delta variant.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    edited July 28
    What about a Boris Crypto Coin or an NFT.....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,489

    If I had to pick an institution it is less wise to instigate a culture war with than a victorious England football team in the middle of a major tournament, it would probably be the RNLI.

    victorious England football team ?
    It was when they were poking it.....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 96,536

    What about a Boris Crypto Coin or an NFT.....

    Both would be 'courageous' the latter especially so as the regulators in this country are close to classing NFTs as a money laundering exercise.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,489
    "A nest of singing birds...."

    So Keir will make Britain the best place to work - unless you work for @UKLabour He has made 90 staff redundant. But is also recruiting workers on insecure temporary contracts with worse employment conditions #FutureOfWork

    https://twitter.com/HackneyAbbott/status/1420290283732930560?s=20
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    edited July 28

    What about a Boris Crypto Coin or an NFT.....

    Both would be 'courageous' the latter especially so as the regulators in this country are close to classing NFTs as a money laundering exercise.
    The level of scamming going on in this space is just breath taking, rug pulls, pump and dumps, etc etc etc, all the stuff that is totally illegal in the regular financial markets. And we aren't taking somebody ripping people off for £10k.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,244
    edited July 28

    Such good news, the deaf are so often ignored.

    A deaf woman who complained about a lack of sign language in Covid briefings has successfully sued the Cabinet Office.

    Katie Rowley, from Leeds, took the Government to the High Court, arguing that it had breached obligations to make the Downing Street broadcasts accessible to deaf people under equality legislation.

    Ms Rowley, 36, who was pregnant during the pandemic, said the stress she suffered from being unable to access crucial information about the virus had impacted her pregnancy and well-being.

    The actor and writer is now set to be awarded compensation after a judge agreed that the lack of British Sign Language (BSL) interpreters amounted to discrimination against her.

    Ms Rowley's legal win could pave the way for hundreds of the 73,000 BSL users in England to win similar claims for damages. Chris Fry, her solicitor, is representing 350 others who argue they were affected.

    Mr Justice Fordham, who handed down the ruling on Wednesday, said damages would be assessed by a judge in a county court at a later date.

    Mr Fry said: "Ensuring that information is provided in an accessible format can rarely be more important than in the midst of a pandemic.

    "This case has brought deaf people together in the most remarkable way to challenge the Government to do better, and to fulfil what we say are its obligations under the Equality Act. It's about time that the deaf community is 'levelled up' by this Government."

    Amanda Casson-Webb, of the Royal Association for Deaf people (RAD), said: "We want to see deaf BSL users fully involved and included in every aspect of life. Deaf people should be able to access information independently and on a par with the rest of society.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/28/deaf-woman-wins-compensation-fight-against-government-lack-sign/

    Oh God, are we going to be subjected to those dreadfully distracting sign-language interpreters for everything now? It makes any presentation completely unwatchable, and does absolutely nothing whatsoever for the vast, vast majority of hard-of-hearing or deaf people who don't understand sign language. Optional sub-titles, or a written transcript, are far more useful.
    I once went to a production of Don Giovanni at Covent Garden which (unknown to me at time of booking) was for the hearing impaired and had a sign language woman by the side of the stage. During the champagne aria he walked over and sang directly to her. To the audience's wild approval.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 44,967
    Guidance from the FA re heading in football commences in the 21/22 season

    How long before it is outlawed and changes football totally
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 96,536

    What about a Boris Crypto Coin or an NFT.....

    Both would be 'courageous' the latter especially so as the regulators in this country are close to classing NFTs as a money laundering exercise.
    The level of scamming going on in this space is just breath taking. And we aren't taking somebody ripping people off for £10k.
    I received a briefing from our friends from over the pond, would you be astonished to learn those in the drug trade are buying and selling NFTs in prodigious amounts via their front companies?
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 216

    What about a Boris Crypto Coin or an NFT.....

    Will PB comments ever end up as NFTs? Could be a bit of a money spinner for Mike?
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 855

    ClippP said:

    I think this will hit Johnson and his incompetent Conservative government, just as soon as the media pick up on it properly.

    https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-07-28/innova-pasaca-covid-17-antigen-test-british-uk-government

    The Innova scandal ought to be fatal.
    (Some of this FPT)

    So you keep saying. No-one else does.
    Did you read the story behind the link, M Navabi?

    Is it corruption, do you think, or just incompetence?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,087

    If I had to pick an institution it is less wise to instigate a culture war with than a victorious England football team in the middle of a major tournament, it would probably be the RNLI.

    Just caught up with this heckling business. Presumably Boris/Priti have failed to condemn it.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,489
    "Working together, stronger together, building back better" @michaelgove
    at the Lighthouse Lab in Glasgow yesterday celebrating the collaboration between people, institutions and businesses across the whole of the UK to defeat COVID-19.


    https://twitter.com/cabinetofficeuk/status/1420413296990117889?s=20
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,066
    TOPPING said:


    I once went to a production of Don Giovanni at Covent Garden which (unknown to me at time of booking) was for the hearing impaired and had a sign language woman by the side of the stage and duing the champagne aria he walked over and sang directly to her. To the audience's wild approval.

    That sounds clever of him, and in character!

    Still, the whole idea of a sign-language interpreted opera is quite spectacularly bonkers, given that virtually the entire audience relies on the surtitles, and that if you're so deaf that you are relying on sign-language, you're not going to be getting much out of the opera in the first place.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 8,569

    If I had to pick an institution it is less wise to instigate a culture war with than a victorious England football team in the middle of a major tournament, it would probably be the RNLI.

    Prolly right. Can't think why, though, they have far too much money, a rep for incompetence and a clientele pretty much exclusively of middle class walkers (autocorrect but I'll leave it) who could reasonably be expected to have s&r insurance.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 14,947
    OK, it's happened again.

    This morning my wife found £20 in our back garden. This time, just to be different, it was an RBS note.

    That's £60 in the past week!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,244

    TOPPING said:


    I once went to a production of Don Giovanni at Covent Garden which (unknown to me at time of booking) was for the hearing impaired and had a sign language woman by the side of the stage and duing the champagne aria he walked over and sang directly to her. To the audience's wild approval.

    That sounds clever of him, and in character!

    Still, the whole idea of a sign-language interpreted opera is quite spectacularly bonkers, given that virtually the entire audience relies on the surtitles, and that if you're so deaf that you are relying on sign-language, you're not going to be getting much out of the opera in the first place.
    You would have thought but I suppose there are different levels of deafness.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 8,569

    OK, it's happened again.

    This morning my wife found £20 in our back garden. This time, just to be different, it was an RBS note.

    That's £60 in the past week!

    OK, it's happened again.

    This morning my wife found £20 in our back garden. This time, just to be different, it was an RBS note.

    That's £60 in the past week!

    Does your neighbour on the upwind side conduct a niche retail business, mainly after dark?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,244

    OK, it's happened again.

    This morning my wife found £20 in our back garden. This time, just to be different, it was an RBS note.

    That's £60 in the past week!

    Do you live at No.2 Hyde Park?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 96,536
    LOL at Red Bull.

    Red Bull believe a one-race ban for Lewis Hamilton is appropriate punishment for his collision with Max Verstappen at Silverstone and that is what they will push for when they meet race stewards in Hungary tomorrow [Thursday].

    The championship rivals made contact on the first lap of the British Grand Prix 11 days ago, which sent Verstappen hurtling across the gravel at 180mph and into a tyre wall. Hamilton was handed a ten-second penalty for being “predominantly” at fault but went on to win the race.

    Red Bull have exercised their right to review the incident because they do not think the penalty handed to Hamilton was sufficient, particularly given that Verstappen ended up in hospital for “precautionary checks”, while the seven-times world champion still managed to win his home race.

    FIA stewards have called Red Bull and Mercedes to a hearing, which will be conducted over video, at the Hungaroring tomorrow before this weekend’s race, the last ahead of the summer break.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/red-bull-to-demand-one-race-ban-for-lewis-hamilton-over-max-verstappen-crash-dbnv3b362

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,122

    OK, it's happened again.

    This morning my wife found £20 in our back garden. This time, just to be different, it was an RBS note.

    That's £60 in the past week!

    Gordo must live round the corner.

    I actually found a fantastic horde of notes whilst out walking- huge values in total. It was literally monopoly money, but actually I was equally pleased as if it had been real.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 216
    edited July 28

    LOL at Red Bull.

    Red Bull believe a one-race ban for Lewis Hamilton is appropriate punishment for his collision with Max Verstappen at Silverstone and that is what they will push for when they meet race stewards in Hungary tomorrow [Thursday].

    The championship rivals made contact on the first lap of the British Grand Prix 11 days ago, which sent Verstappen hurtling across the gravel at 180mph and into a tyre wall. Hamilton was handed a ten-second penalty for being “predominantly” at fault but went on to win the race.

    Red Bull have exercised their right to review the incident because they do not think the penalty handed to Hamilton was sufficient, particularly given that Verstappen ended up in hospital for “precautionary checks”, while the seven-times world champion still managed to win his home race.

    FIA stewards have called Red Bull and Mercedes to a hearing, which will be conducted over video, at the Hungaroring tomorrow before this weekend’s race, the last ahead of the summer break.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/red-bull-to-demand-one-race-ban-for-lewis-hamilton-over-max-verstappen-crash-dbnv3b362

    Unfortunately (for me at least) - I've lost access to a TV. I heard that Verstappen was hospitalised?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 29,568

    OK, it's happened again.

    This morning my wife found £20 in our back garden. This time, just to be different, it was an RBS note.

    That's £60 in the past week!

    It's all beginning to sound a bit Tales of the Unexpected.
    They didn't tend to end well.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,245

    Such good news, the deaf are so often ignored.

    A deaf woman who complained about a lack of sign language in Covid briefings has successfully sued the Cabinet Office.

    Katie Rowley, from Leeds, took the Government to the High Court, arguing that it had breached obligations to make the Downing Street broadcasts accessible to deaf people under equality legislation.

    Ms Rowley, 36, who was pregnant during the pandemic, said the stress she suffered from being unable to access crucial information about the virus had impacted her pregnancy and well-being.

    The actor and writer is now set to be awarded compensation after a judge agreed that the lack of British Sign Language (BSL) interpreters amounted to discrimination against her.

    Ms Rowley's legal win could pave the way for hundreds of the 73,000 BSL users in England to win similar claims for damages. Chris Fry, her solicitor, is representing 350 others who argue they were affected.

    Mr Justice Fordham, who handed down the ruling on Wednesday, said damages would be assessed by a judge in a county court at a later date.

    Mr Fry said: "Ensuring that information is provided in an accessible format can rarely be more important than in the midst of a pandemic.

    "This case has brought deaf people together in the most remarkable way to challenge the Government to do better, and to fulfil what we say are its obligations under the Equality Act. It's about time that the deaf community is 'levelled up' by this Government."

    Amanda Casson-Webb, of the Royal Association for Deaf people (RAD), said: "We want to see deaf BSL users fully involved and included in every aspect of life. Deaf people should be able to access information independently and on a par with the rest of society.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/28/deaf-woman-wins-compensation-fight-against-government-lack-sign/

    Why is compensation an appropriate remedy for the injury caused?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 43,597
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    34m
    The job of the RNLI is to rescue people in danger at sea. It isn’t to ask them their migration status, then make a decision on whether to rescue them or not. This isn’t a difficult one.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,124
    edited July 28
    kinabalu said:

    I think that Boris has a greater chance than 55% of being the leader (and PM) going into the next election.

    So do I. I'd make it 80%.

    But that's not quite this bet because the GE could be 2023 and he might lose and thus be gone by 2024.
    These things could dispose of Boris as leader before 2024:

    He might choose to leave because he chooses to
    He might be toppled by the party anyway
    He might lose (or not win) a 2023 (even 2022) election and leave
    Ditto and be toppled
    Act of God/medical
    Black swan/non Boris proof scandal/a Labour leader so outstanding that Boris clearly can't beat her/him (call it a Red Swan, and about as likely)

    A bet that he leaves 2024 or later is a bet that he will do 5 years (almost) minimum, which is a long time, and a bet that he will probably win a probable pre 2024 election.

    Although I think he will in fact be Tory leader in 2024 having won an election in 2022/3 I agree that the probabilities are in truth against it. Mike Smithson is (as always) right. In this case I favour the possibility over the probability. Favourites don't always win. Boris should be 38-40% not 55%.


  • MattWMattW Posts: 9,983

    TOPPING said:


    I once went to a production of Don Giovanni at Covent Garden which (unknown to me at time of booking) was for the hearing impaired and had a sign language woman by the side of the stage and duing the champagne aria he walked over and sang directly to her. To the audience's wild approval.

    That sounds clever of him, and in character!

    Still, the whole idea of a sign-language interpreted opera is quite spectacularly bonkers, given that virtually the entire audience relies on the surtitles, and that if you're so deaf that you are relying on sign-language, you're not going to be getting much out of the opera in the first place.
    I think that's a matter for the deaf person to judge.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,066
    edited July 28
    ClippP said:

    ClippP said:

    I think this will hit Johnson and his incompetent Conservative government, just as soon as the media pick up on it properly.

    https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-07-28/innova-pasaca-covid-17-antigen-test-british-uk-government

    The Innova scandal ought to be fatal.
    (Some of this FPT)

    So you keep saying. No-one else does.
    Did you read the story behind the link, M Navabi?

    Is it corruption, do you think, or just incompetence?
    Neither. It's a useful test, approved by the MHRA. Are you accusing them of being corrupt?

    In practice it's worked quite well. Of course it doesn't find all cases (although it does better on the most contagious ones), and of course it would be better if the tests were administered by a trained healthcare worker, if we had any spare and available in every home, but so what? This is about risk reduction, not risk elimination. Simplicity and convenience are major virtues. Not letting the best be the enemy of the good should be the watchword in a global pandemic.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,245

    Charles said:

    On topic, I'll say it again, Boris Johnson's finances means being PM is very bad for him in the short term.

    Surely he can just securitise his future earnings?
    Apparently he can't on ethical grounds, and given his body shape, there's no guarantee those future earnings will be realised.
    No investment is without risk

    But I would have thought that lending him £500k at 8% pa interest to be repaid as a first charge on post PM earnings would be a reasonable investment
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 8,569
    Charles said:

    Such good news, the deaf are so often ignored.

    A deaf woman who complained about a lack of sign language in Covid briefings has successfully sued the Cabinet Office.

    Katie Rowley, from Leeds, took the Government to the High Court, arguing that it had breached obligations to make the Downing Street broadcasts accessible to deaf people under equality legislation.

    Ms Rowley, 36, who was pregnant during the pandemic, said the stress she suffered from being unable to access crucial information about the virus had impacted her pregnancy and well-being.

    The actor and writer is now set to be awarded compensation after a judge agreed that the lack of British Sign Language (BSL) interpreters amounted to discrimination against her.

    Ms Rowley's legal win could pave the way for hundreds of the 73,000 BSL users in England to win similar claims for damages. Chris Fry, her solicitor, is representing 350 others who argue they were affected.

    Mr Justice Fordham, who handed down the ruling on Wednesday, said damages would be assessed by a judge in a county court at a later date.

    Mr Fry said: "Ensuring that information is provided in an accessible format can rarely be more important than in the midst of a pandemic.

    "This case has brought deaf people together in the most remarkable way to challenge the Government to do better, and to fulfil what we say are its obligations under the Equality Act. It's about time that the deaf community is 'levelled up' by this Government."

    Amanda Casson-Webb, of the Royal Association for Deaf people (RAD), said: "We want to see deaf BSL users fully involved and included in every aspect of life. Deaf people should be able to access information independently and on a par with the rest of society.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/28/deaf-woman-wins-compensation-fight-against-government-lack-sign/

    Why is compensation an appropriate remedy for the injury caused?
    What alternative did you have in mind? Send her some backdated transcripts? Money is the law's preferred remedy, for all sorts of reasons.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,696

    ClippP said:

    ClippP said:

    I think this will hit Johnson and his incompetent Conservative government, just as soon as the media pick up on it properly.

    https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-07-28/innova-pasaca-covid-17-antigen-test-british-uk-government

    The Innova scandal ought to be fatal.
    (Some of this FPT)

    So you keep saying. No-one else does.
    Did you read the story behind the link, M Navabi?

    Is it corruption, do you think, or just incompetence?
    Neither. It's a useful test, approved by the MHRA. Are you accusing them of being corrupt?

    In practice it's worked quite well. Of course it doesn't find all cases (although it does better on the most contagious ones), and of course it would be better if the tests were administered by a trained healthcare worker, if we had any spare, but so what? This is about risk reduction, not risk elimination. Simplicity and convenience are major virtues. Not letting the best be the enemy of the good should be the watchword in a global pandemic.
    The FDA has made some rather strange, and not data driven, decisions in the last coupe of years.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 11,469
    edited July 28
    Charles said:

    Such good news, the deaf are so often ignored.

    A deaf woman who complained about a lack of sign language in Covid briefings has successfully sued the Cabinet Office.

    Katie Rowley, from Leeds, took the Government to the High Court, arguing that it had breached obligations to make the Downing Street broadcasts accessible to deaf people under equality legislation.

    Ms Rowley, 36, who was pregnant during the pandemic, said the stress she suffered from being unable to access crucial information about the virus had impacted her pregnancy and well-being.

    The actor and writer is now set to be awarded compensation after a judge agreed that the lack of British Sign Language (BSL) interpreters amounted to discrimination against her.

    Ms Rowley's legal win could pave the way for hundreds of the 73,000 BSL users in England to win similar claims for damages. Chris Fry, her solicitor, is representing 350 others who argue they were affected.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/28/deaf-woman-wins-compensation-fight-against-government-lack-sign/

    Why is compensation an appropriate remedy for the injury caused?
    TSE left out this part:

    "The two briefings found to be in breach of the Equality Act were on Sep 21 and Oct 12, in which there were no sign language interpreters either in person or superimposed by broadcasters. The other briefings on the virus, totalling more than 170, were not found to have unlawfully breached the Act."

    The Government's argument, so far as reported, was that the applicant could access signed versions via the BBC News Channel or other broadcasters, or online. Therefore it basically admitted these two instances and I think it is weird that it is being framed as a big defeat(?)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,696

    What about a Boris Crypto Coin or an NFT.....

    Both would be 'courageous' the latter especially so as the regulators in this country are close to classing NFTs as a money laundering exercise.
    The level of scamming going on in this space is just breath taking. And we aren't taking somebody ripping people off for £10k.
    I received a briefing from our friends from over the pond, would you be astonished to learn those in the drug trade are buying and selling NFTs in prodigious amounts via their front companies?
    https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0130121/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 68,915

    OK, it's happened again.

    This morning my wife found £20 in our back garden. This time, just to be different, it was an RBS note.

    That's £60 in the past week!

    I feel like this needs reporting to someone, but I have no idea who.

    I bet it'd make the local papers, with a picture of you pointing at the garden with a baffled look on your face.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,066


    The FDA has made some rather strange, and not data driven, decisions in the last coupe of years.

    I think that they, like some of the EU regulators, are still a bit stuck in the mindset appropriate to the approval process in normal circumstances. Or perhaps it's a matter of their remit.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 96,536
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    On topic, I'll say it again, Boris Johnson's finances means being PM is very bad for him in the short term.

    Surely he can just securitise his future earnings?
    Apparently he can't on ethical grounds, and given his body shape, there's no guarantee those future earnings will be realised.
    No investment is without risk

    But I would have thought that lending him £500k at 8% pa interest to be repaid as a first charge on post PM earnings would be a reasonable investment
    I suspiciously cough in a way that could be heard as 'Trump and Deutsche Bank say hello.'
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 30,984

    LOL at Red Bull.

    Red Bull believe a one-race ban for Lewis Hamilton is appropriate punishment for his collision with Max Verstappen at Silverstone and that is what they will push for when they meet race stewards in Hungary tomorrow [Thursday].

    The championship rivals made contact on the first lap of the British Grand Prix 11 days ago, which sent Verstappen hurtling across the gravel at 180mph and into a tyre wall. Hamilton was handed a ten-second penalty for being “predominantly” at fault but went on to win the race.

    Red Bull have exercised their right to review the incident because they do not think the penalty handed to Hamilton was sufficient, particularly given that Verstappen ended up in hospital for “precautionary checks”, while the seven-times world champion still managed to win his home race.

    FIA stewards have called Red Bull and Mercedes to a hearing, which will be conducted over video, at the Hungaroring tomorrow before this weekend’s race, the last ahead of the summer break.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/red-bull-to-demand-one-race-ban-for-lewis-hamilton-over-max-verstappen-crash-dbnv3b362

    Just move on.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 30,984
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    On topic, I'll say it again, Boris Johnson's finances means being PM is very bad for him in the short term.

    Surely he can just securitise his future earnings?
    Apparently he can't on ethical grounds, and given his body shape, there's no guarantee those future earnings will be realised.
    No investment is without risk

    But I would have thought that lending him £500k at 8% pa interest to be repaid as a first charge on post PM earnings would be a reasonable investment
    Make it a PIK and I'd probably do it just to see Boris go bankrupt.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,124
    IshmaelZ said:

    If I had to pick an institution it is less wise to instigate a culture war with than a victorious England football team in the middle of a major tournament, it would probably be the RNLI.

    Prolly right. Can't think why, though, they have far too much money, a rep for incompetence and a clientele pretty much exclusively of middle class walkers (autocorrect but I'll leave it) who could reasonably be expected to have s&r insurance.
    The RNLI, along with Guide Dogs for the Blind, all animal welfare charities, Salvation Army, Cancer Research and Hospices are collectively an important branch of English religion.

    Taking them on these days would be like (in the old days) taking on (as Macmillan said) The Brigade of Guards, the Roman Catholic Church and the National Union of Mineworkers.

    The fact that Macmillan's famous words now require an extensive historical footnote shows how times change.



  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 29,568
    There's been an intervention.




  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 96,536
    MaxPB said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    On topic, I'll say it again, Boris Johnson's finances means being PM is very bad for him in the short term.

    Surely he can just securitise his future earnings?
    Apparently he can't on ethical grounds, and given his body shape, there's no guarantee those future earnings will be realised.
    No investment is without risk

    But I would have thought that lending him £500k at 8% pa interest to be repaid as a first charge on post PM earnings would be a reasonable investment
    Make it a PIK and I'd probably do it just to see Boris go bankrupt.
    Which reminds me, what happened to the CCJ registered against Boris Johnson?

    His team said it would be shortly overturned but I've not seen or heard anything.

    That might impact his creditworthiness.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,122

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    On topic, I'll say it again, Boris Johnson's finances means being PM is very bad for him in the short term.

    Surely he can just securitise his future earnings?
    Apparently he can't on ethical grounds, and given his body shape, there's no guarantee those future earnings will be realised.
    No investment is without risk

    But I would have thought that lending him £500k at 8% pa interest to be repaid as a first charge on post PM earnings would be a reasonable investment
    I suspiciously cough in a way that could be heard as 'Trump and Deutsche Bank say hello.'
    Does anyone know the story with Deutsche Bank?
    They were super-conservative for many years, and then became super aggressive. I presume they just funded it from their long-standing assets. So far as I know though they employed the worst people at the highest salaries. And basically went bust, having not achieved anything.
    I'd be interested if anyone knows more or can correct any mistakes above.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 68,915
    MaxPB said:

    LOL at Red Bull.

    Red Bull believe a one-race ban for Lewis Hamilton is appropriate punishment for his collision with Max Verstappen at Silverstone and that is what they will push for when they meet race stewards in Hungary tomorrow [Thursday].

    The championship rivals made contact on the first lap of the British Grand Prix 11 days ago, which sent Verstappen hurtling across the gravel at 180mph and into a tyre wall. Hamilton was handed a ten-second penalty for being “predominantly” at fault but went on to win the race.

    Red Bull have exercised their right to review the incident because they do not think the penalty handed to Hamilton was sufficient, particularly given that Verstappen ended up in hospital for “precautionary checks”, while the seven-times world champion still managed to win his home race.

    FIA stewards have called Red Bull and Mercedes to a hearing, which will be conducted over video, at the Hungaroring tomorrow before this weekend’s race, the last ahead of the summer break.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/red-bull-to-demand-one-race-ban-for-lewis-hamilton-over-max-verstappen-crash-dbnv3b362

    Just move on.
    People play the rules in F1, but it seems like they are wasting energy and focus on this.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,087
    algarkirk said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    If I had to pick an institution it is less wise to instigate a culture war with than a victorious England football team in the middle of a major tournament, it would probably be the RNLI.

    Prolly right. Can't think why, though, they have far too much money, a rep for incompetence and a clientele pretty much exclusively of middle class walkers (autocorrect but I'll leave it) who could reasonably be expected to have s&r insurance.
    The RNLI, along with Guide Dogs for the Blind, all animal welfare charities, Salvation Army, Cancer Research and Hospices are collectively an important branch of English religion.

    Taking them on these days would be like (in the old days) taking on (as Macmillan said) The Brigade of Guards, the Roman Catholic Church and the National Union of Mineworkers.

    The fact that Macmillan's famous words now require an extensive historical footnote shows how times change.



    Wow. I know you're going for the muscular no-one-but-me-dare-say-it look but cancer charities and hospices?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 96,536
    Crikey.

    Trafford General: Lightning strike sets hospital roof on fire

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-58002628
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 24,394

    Guidance from the FA re heading in football commences in the 21/22 season

    How long before it is outlawed and changes football totally

    It'd be interesting - wouldn't it? - to rework the entire history of football to show how it would have been without headers.

    Eg the recent Euro quarter final would have been England 1 Ukraine 0. So we'd still have got through to the semis.

    But that's just one example. I bet there would be some big changes to the record books. Wouldn't surprise me if it means Arsenal get more PL titles.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,532
    edited July 28
    kinabalu said:

    Guidance from the FA re heading in football commences in the 21/22 season

    How long before it is outlawed and changes football totally

    It'd be interesting - wouldn't it? - to rework the entire history of football to show how it would have been without headers.

    Eg the recent Euro quarter final would have been England 1 Ukraine 0. So we'd still have got through to the semis.

    But that's just one example. I bet there would be some big changes to the record books. Wouldn't surprise me if it means Arsenal get more PL titles.
    Would expect the average height of a pro footballer would drop to 5'7 ish within a decade if they actually outlaw headers. Limiting them in training is obviously very different.

    Seems like a good business opportunity for one of those virtual reality headset type things to develop a heading training program that doesnt involve actual heading.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 14,550

    If I had to pick an institution it is less wise to instigate a culture war with than a victorious England football team in the middle of a major tournament, it would probably be the RNLI.

    Who said that please? Interested to know.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,087

    There's been an intervention.




    The likes of Farage and Grimes need to say that the RNLI should be blocked from rescuing immigrants because their preferred option is for the immigrants to drown. If they don't say that then it's moral cowardice on their part.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,122

    Crikey.

    Trafford General: Lightning strike sets hospital roof on fire

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-58002628

    Impressive from the Fire Brigade that they seem to be there and deployed whilst its a small fire.

    ('Brigade' - weird!)
This discussion has been closed.