Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, all heading into big new waves. Indonesia reporting 1,200 dead today. Feck
Meanwhile the Guardian reports that the real death toll in India is 4 MILLION - ie ten times the official death toll, which confirms the most appalling estimates, which were sometimes dismissed as scare-mongering
If India alone has actually suffered 4 million dead so far, then what is the true global total? 15 million? 20 million? And how high might it go?
Covid is already one of the worst pandemics in all human history
The Telegraph says up to 5 million.
The UK's death toll would be 2.6 million if it was the same population as India.
Yes, it's about twice as high as the UK pro-rata. But of course we have an older population the other way too.
It's what an overwhelmed NHS would have looked like here with collapse, I guess. An extra 150k dead or so. Probably pushing 300k overall.
Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, all heading into big new waves. Indonesia reporting 1,200 dead today. Feck
Meanwhile the Guardian reports that the real death toll in India is 4 MILLION - ie ten times the official death toll, which confirms the most appalling estimates, which were sometimes dismissed as scare-mongering
If India alone has actually suffered 4 million dead so far, then what is the true global total? 15 million? 20 million? And how high might it go?
Covid is already one of the worst pandemics in all human history
The Telegraph says up to 5 million.
Bloody hell
I recall reading the claim, weeks back, that the Indian death toll was understated "ten to fifteen times" judging by the amount of cremations taking place compared with normality
Something in me rebelled against this, and pigeon holed it as "alarmism"
Now it seems it is true. Grim
I wonder if we will ever know the true death toll in China. It beggars belief that 1.4 billion Indians can suffer 5 million dead, with more to come, and neighbouring China, with a similarly vast population, has just.... 4,600 dead?
A thousand times fewer. Really? How?
It’s the great mystery of our age how covid didn’t ravage every corner of China, given the millions of people that travelled from or passed through Wuhan the week before their Chinese New Year lockdown.
No one serious seems to want to talk about it because it raises quite uncomfortable possibilities. Better to just ignore it.
Tish tish. They're just REALLY good at stapling people inside houses. Don't worry yourself about this. Next question
Re; the Lib Dem poll boost, stories like this one aren't helping the government with that support, and Starmer is beginning to be identified by some as a Blair-like figure who's quiet on civil liberties, in the hope of triangulating.
Journalists could face prison sentences of up to 14 years for stories that embarrass the Government under plans to reform the Official Secrets Act
Leaked secrets that embarrass the government: Matt Hancock; expenses; the PM's a shopping trolley.
Does the phrase, "have no defence in law" actually mean anything any more after that Xtinction Rebellion case? The judge told the jury the defendants had no defence in law, and they acquitted them anyway?
Sure, but that's always been the case, when juries have been swayed by a particular argument from a defendant, right back to the 17th century - and you might throw in the conflict between John Wilkes and the law into the mix too.
It is a very important protection against tyrannical laws that juries can acquit in such circumstances, effectively declaring the law wrong.
Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, all heading into big new waves. Indonesia reporting 1,200 dead today. Feck
Meanwhile the Guardian reports that the real death toll in India is 4 MILLION - ie ten times the official death toll, which confirms the most appalling estimates, which were sometimes dismissed as scare-mongering
If India alone has actually suffered 4 million dead so far, then what is the true global total? 15 million? 20 million? And how high might it go?
Covid is already one of the worst pandemics in all human history
The Telegraph says up to 5 million.
The UK's death toll would be 2.6 million if it was the same population as India.
Yes, it's about twice as high as the UK pro-rata. But of course we have an older population the other way too.
It's what an overwhelmed NHS would have looked like here with collapse, I guess. An extra 150k dead or so. Probably pushing 300k overall.
3% of 1.4 billion is 42 million. And I don't think 42 million Indians have died of Covid. Maybe 4.2million.
I think you're confused. He's just saying that if the UK population were 1.4 billion then on a pro-rata basis then 2.6m would have died (as opposed to 150k). Indicating that suggestions of 4 million Indian dead aren't actually as large as they sound.
If India has truly suffered 5 million dead, with more to come - relentlessly, it comes - then it looks like Covid will probably kill 25-30 million humans in its first two or three years, maybe a lot more
That makes it likely the third worst pandemic in history, in sheer numbers, behind only the Flu of 1918 and the Black Death
We are, unfortunately, living through interesting times
Yes but in 1918 they had just come off millions of dead in WW1 too and the Black Death was the same time as the Hundred Years War
It is indeed reassuring to know that the Black Death was, in fact, statistically worse than what we are experiencing now
If India has truly suffered 5 million dead, with more to come - relentlessly, it comes - then it looks like Covid will probably kill 25-30 million humans in its first two or three years, maybe a lot more
That makes it likely the third worst pandemic in history, in sheer numbers, behind only the Flu of 1918 and the Black Death
We are, unfortunately, living through interesting times
Yes but in 1918 they had just come off millions of dead in WW1 too and the Black Death was the same time as the Hundred Years War
YOu were saying it was the same time as the Wars of the Roses. That sounds interesting. Please expand.
These are vulnerable, desperate, human beings fleeing violence and persecution.
We need to agree with France a means of processing and approving their requests in France, not bloody Rwanda, and bringing them to the UK to start their new life.
Will be interesting to see how long the Malan experiment is persisted with. Statistical abberation of a solid county pro who had an amazing run for 15 matches and is now reverting to his real level. Nowhere near good enough to go as slow as he does and assume he can catch up.
Given how useless labour are and their poll numbers continue to show progress against the sleazy, racist, Tories what sort of lead will labour have in 12 months time.
The Tories are slumping due to one rule for the plebs, one rule for the rest, and the debacle over not condemning the people booing the footy players who took the knee.
These are vulnerable, desperate, human beings fleeing violence and persecution.
We need to agree with France a means of processing and approving their requests in France, not bloody Rwanda, and bringing them to the UK to start their new life.
I'd say they are about 75%+ economic migrants who've got the money to pay the smugglers and have been schooled in how to game the asylum system through WhatsApp.
The ones you describe are stuck in camps adjacent to their countries of origin.
Given how useless labour are and their poll numbers continue to show progress against the sleazy, racist, Tories what sort of lead will labour have in 12 months time.
The Tories are slumping due to one rule for the plebs, one rule for the rest, and the debacle over not condemning the people booing the footy players who took the knee.
Even now with Survation the Tories are still doing 2% better than Cameron did in 2015 and Labour 5% worse than Corbyn did in 2017, so yes it is encouraging for Starmer but I would not get too excited
Re; the Lib Dem poll boost, stories like this one aren't helping the government with that support, and Starmer is beginning to be identified by some as a Blair-like figure who's quiet on civil liberties, in the hope of triangulating.
Journalists could face prison sentences of up to 14 years for stories that embarrass the Government under plans to reform the Official Secrets Act
Leaked secrets that embarrass the government: Matt Hancock; expenses; the PM's a shopping trolley.
Does the phrase, "have no defence in law" actually mean anything any more after that Xtinction Rebellion case? The judge told the jury the defendants had no defence in law, and they acquitted them anyway?
Sure, but that's always been the case, when juries have been swayed by a particular argument from a defendant, right back to the 17th century - and you might throw in the conflict between John Wilkes and the law into the mix too.
It is a very important protection against tyrannical laws that juries can acquit in such circumstances, effectively declaring the law wrong.
But if you as a defendant ever need to tell a jury that it has got that right you'll need to sack your barrister first, because no barrister will tell them.
If India has truly suffered 5 million dead, with more to come - relentlessly, it comes - then it looks like Covid will probably kill 25-30 million humans in its first two or three years, maybe a lot more
That makes it likely the third worst pandemic in history, in sheer numbers, behind only the Flu of 1918 and the Black Death
We are, unfortunately, living through interesting times
Yes but in 1918 they had just come off millions of dead in WW1 too and the Black Death was the same time as the Hundred Years War
It is indeed reassuring to know that the Black Death was, in fact, statistically worse than what we are experiencing now
Will be interesting to see how long the Malan experiment is persisted with. Statistical abberation of a solid county pro who had an amazing run for 15 matches and is now reverting to his real level. Nowhere near good enough to go as slow as he does and assume he can catch up.
We desperately needed him to lose his wicket 2 overs before he did. Not good enough. Really don't understand this number one ranking nonsense.
Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, all heading into big new waves. Indonesia reporting 1,200 dead today. Feck
Meanwhile the Guardian reports that the real death toll in India is 4 MILLION - ie ten times the official death toll, which confirms the most appalling estimates, which were sometimes dismissed as scare-mongering
If India alone has actually suffered 4 million dead so far, then what is the true global total? 15 million? 20 million? And how high might it go?
Covid is already one of the worst pandemics in all human history
The Telegraph says up to 5 million.
The UK's death toll would be 2.6 million if it was the same population as India.
Yes, it's about twice as high as the UK pro-rata. But of course we have an older population the other way too.
It's what an overwhelmed NHS would have looked like here with collapse, I guess. An extra 150k dead or so. Probably pushing 300k overall.
3% of 1.4 billion is 42 million. And I don't think 42 million Indians have died of Covid. Maybe 4.2million.
I think you're confused. He's just saying that if the UK population were 1.4 billion then on a pro-rata basis then 2.6m would have died (as opposed to 150k). Indicating that suggestions of 4 million Indian dead aren't actually as large as they sound.
Re; the Lib Dem poll boost, stories like this one aren't helping the government with that support, and Starmer is beginning to be identified by some as a Blair-like figure who's quiet on civil liberties, in the hope of triangulating.
Journalists could face prison sentences of up to 14 years for stories that embarrass the Government under plans to reform the Official Secrets Act
Leaked secrets that embarrass the government: Matt Hancock; expenses; the PM's a shopping trolley.
Does the phrase, "have no defence in law" actually mean anything any more after that Xtinction Rebellion case? The judge told the jury the defendants had no defence in law, and they acquitted them anyway?
Sure, but that's always been the case, when juries have been swayed by a particular argument from a defendant, right back to the 17th century - and you might throw in the conflict between John Wilkes and the law into the mix too.
It is a very important protection against tyrannical laws that juries can acquit in such circumstances, effectively declaring the law wrong.
But if you as a defendant ever need to tell a jury that it has got that right you'll need to sack your barrister first, because no barrister will tell them.
5 million Indians dead means about 0.4% of their population has died of Covid - so far
I remember early assessments of the Rona which reckoned it had a CFR of 0.5-1%. and that we would all get it eventually
If Rona sweeps the world as it has India that means 40 million dead, worldwide - 0.5% of 8 billion- which now looks pretty plausible: tho it might well be a lot fewer if we can get the vaccine out fast
Re; the Lib Dem poll boost, stories like this one aren't helping the government with that support, and Starmer is beginning to be identified by some as a Blair-like figure who's quiet on civil liberties, in the hope of triangulating.
Journalists could face prison sentences of up to 14 years for stories that embarrass the Government under plans to reform the Official Secrets Act
Leaked secrets that embarrass the government: Matt Hancock; expenses; the PM's a shopping trolley.
Does the phrase, "have no defence in law" actually mean anything any more after that Xtinction Rebellion case? The judge told the jury the defendants had no defence in law, and they acquitted them anyway?
Sure, but that's always been the case, when juries have been swayed by a particular argument from a defendant, right back to the 17th century - and you might throw in the conflict between John Wilkes and the law into the mix too.
It is a very important protection against tyrannical laws that juries can acquit in such circumstances, effectively declaring the law wrong.
But if you as a defendant ever need to tell a jury that it has got that right you'll need to sack your barrister first, because no barrister will tell them.
I don't think that some of those famous early court cases had defending lawyers anyway, never mind barristers.
Will be interesting to see how long the Malan experiment is persisted with. Statistical abberation of a solid county pro who had an amazing run for 15 matches and is now reverting to his real level. Nowhere near good enough to go as slow as he does and assume he can catch up.
We desperately needed him to lose his wicket 2 overs before he did. Not good enough. Really don't understand this number one ranking nonsense.
I keep checking the score and, without having any pictures, it looks like we're winning easily?
If India has truly suffered 5 million dead, with more to come - relentlessly, it comes - then it looks like Covid will probably kill 25-30 million humans in its first two or three years, maybe a lot more
That makes it likely the third worst pandemic in history, in sheer numbers, behind only the Flu of 1918 and the Black Death
We are, unfortunately, living through interesting times
Yes but in 1918 they had just come off millions of dead in WW1 too and the Black Death was the same time as the Hundred Years War
It is indeed reassuring to know that the Black Death was, in fact, statistically worse than what we are experiencing now
Black Death led to such overwhelming mortality that even now, you can visit home counties villages and surmise why that field and that field next to the old church were never built on. In some cases the village lies a couple of miles from the ancient church, as the inhabitants scrambled to move away from the pits. And this is largely from the less severe 17th century plague, not the almost completely devastating plague of the 14th century. I often sit in my very old house and wonder what I’d hear if the walls could talk.
If India has truly suffered 5 million dead, with more to come - relentlessly, it comes - then it looks like Covid will probably kill 25-30 million humans in its first two or three years, maybe a lot more
That makes it likely the third worst pandemic in history, in sheer numbers, behind only the Flu of 1918 and the Black Death
We are, unfortunately, living through interesting times
Yes but in 1918 they had just come off millions of dead in WW1 too and the Black Death was the same time as the Hundred Years War
YOu were saying it was the same time as the Wars of the Roses. That sounds interesting. Please expand.
Correction, I should have said the Battle of Neville's Cross when the English forces of Lord Neville thrashed the Scottish forces of King David IInd
Will be interesting to see how long the Malan experiment is persisted with. Statistical abberation of a solid county pro who had an amazing run for 15 matches and is now reverting to his real level. Nowhere near good enough to go as slow as he does and assume he can catch up.
We desperately needed him to lose his wicket 2 overs before he did. Not good enough. Really don't understand this number one ranking nonsense.
I keep checking the score and, without having any pictures, it looks like we're winning easily?
Nope. Its tight because Malan's scoring rate was pathetic and he chewed up a lot of deliveries.
Will be interesting to see how long the Malan experiment is persisted with. Statistical abberation of a solid county pro who had an amazing run for 15 matches and is now reverting to his real level. Nowhere near good enough to go as slow as he does and assume he can catch up.
We desperately needed him to lose his wicket 2 overs before he did. Not good enough. Really don't understand this number one ranking nonsense.
I keep checking the score and, without having any pictures, it looks like we're winning easily?
Will be interesting to see how long the Malan experiment is persisted with. Statistical abberation of a solid county pro who had an amazing run for 15 matches and is now reverting to his real level. Nowhere near good enough to go as slow as he does and assume he can catch up.
We desperately needed him to lose his wicket 2 overs before he did. Not good enough. Really don't understand this number one ranking nonsense.
I keep checking the score and, without having any pictures, it looks like we're winning easily?
Nope. Its tight because Malan's scoring rate was pathetic and he chewed up a lot of deliveries.
Either they have rebuilt the Maginot line in reverse, and done it so well they can keep out microbes, or the Germans are seriously under-testing... or something else?
Or there are no English people travelling to Germany (remember they have (/had?) a quarantine in place. So the pace of spread is currently very slow. Whether it will rapidly pick up via Spain and France in a few weeks...
But the Brits and Germans have been mixing freely in Spain for weeks (I witnessed it in Majorca)
The German numbers do not make sense
Perhaps prudent if you avoid commenting on Germans?
This is consistent with the slowish increase of the last couple of weeks. Probably the increase is a bit higher, bit with everyone on holiday there's a bit less testing. Why delta is slower to take off in Germany I don't know, but I wouldn't say the German numbers do not make sense.
Worldometer
I am very happy to be corrected as this is genuinely mystifying me
Actually, digging deeper it looks like Worldometer is confused: it says "633" German cases in the main table, but in the footnotes it records "1,626 new cases"
Germany doesn't have a single daily update. It has multiple updates every day.
Actually Worldometer has always been complete rubbish on case numbers, hospital numbers, test numbers from the very start so I don't know why anyone would waste any time looking at them.
Official German numbers are updated every morning here:
These are vulnerable, desperate, human beings fleeing violence and persecution.
We need to agree with France a means of processing and approving their requests in France, not bloody Rwanda, and bringing them to the UK to start their new life.
Or how about france grants them asylum and they can start a new life
If India has truly suffered 5 million dead, with more to come - relentlessly, it comes - then it looks like Covid will probably kill 25-30 million humans in its first two or three years, maybe a lot more
That makes it likely the third worst pandemic in history, in sheer numbers, behind only the Flu of 1918 and the Black Death
We are, unfortunately, living through interesting times
Yes but in 1918 they had just come off millions of dead in WW1 too and the Black Death was the same time as the Hundred Years War
It is indeed reassuring to know that the Black Death was, in fact, statistically worse than what we are experiencing now
Black Death led to such overwhelming mortality that even now, you can visit home counties villages and surmise why that field and that field next to the old church were never built on. In some cases the village lies a couple of miles from the ancient church, as the inhabitants scrambled to move away from the pits. And this is largely from the less severe 17th century plague, not the almost completely devastating plague of the 14th century. I often sit in my very old house and wonder what I’d hear if the walls could talk.
The Great Plague of 1665-66 was shortly after the English civil war of course
These are vulnerable, desperate, human beings fleeing violence and persecution.
We need to agree with France a means of processing and approving their requests in France, not bloody Rwanda, and bringing them to the UK to start their new life.
Or how about france grants them asylum and they can start a new life
Will be interesting to see how long the Malan experiment is persisted with. Statistical abberation of a solid county pro who had an amazing run for 15 matches and is now reverting to his real level. Nowhere near good enough to go as slow as he does and assume he can catch up.
We desperately needed him to lose his wicket 2 overs before he did. Not good enough. Really don't understand this number one ranking nonsense.
I keep checking the score and, without having any pictures, it looks like we're winning easily?
All over never in doubt.......
2 balls to spare. Many thanks to Roy who was the only one who really got going and a better effort by Morgan. Moeem is a lovely guy but cannot bat that high. Livingstone at 4 looks a no brainer.
Either they have rebuilt the Maginot line in reverse, and done it so well they can keep out microbes, or the Germans are seriously under-testing... or something else?
Or there are no English people travelling to Germany (remember they have (/had?) a quarantine in place. So the pace of spread is currently very slow. Whether it will rapidly pick up via Spain and France in a few weeks...
But the Brits and Germans have been mixing freely in Spain for weeks (I witnessed it in Majorca)
The German numbers do not make sense
Perhaps prudent if you avoid commenting on Germans?
This is consistent with the slowish increase of the last couple of weeks. Probably the increase is a bit higher, bit with everyone on holiday there's a bit less testing. Why delta is slower to take off in Germany I don't know, but I wouldn't say the German numbers do not make sense.
Worldometer
I am very happy to be corrected as this is genuinely mystifying me
Actually, digging deeper it looks like Worldometer is confused: it says "633" German cases in the main table, but in the footnotes it records "1,626 new cases"
Germany doesn't have a single daily update. It has multiple updates every day.
Actually Worldometer has always been complete rubbish on case numbers, hospital numbers, test numbers from the very start so I don't know why anyone would waste any time looking at them.
Official German numbers are updated every morning here:
Because, flawed or not, it's a single page source that allows people to quickly see a summary of what is happening in lots of countries. Clearly if you have a particular interest in tracking a single country you would always go to their own resources.
These are vulnerable, desperate, human beings fleeing violence and persecution.
We need to agree with France a means of processing and approving their requests in France, not bloody Rwanda, and bringing them to the UK to start their new life.
Or how about france grants them asylum and they can start a new life
The idea of asylum is to improve their life.
If home life was so precarious then even france is an improvement.
These UK-French spats/disagreements are like groundhog day. Ultimately they always end up asking for the same things (UK ask French to control their border, French ask the UK to pay for it) and end in the same outcome.
It's the classic 'improve intelligence sharing' and other similar phrases too. No doubt the last time they agreed to improve it too, and they were probably saying it was going well previously.
Will be interesting to see how long the Malan experiment is persisted with. Statistical abberation of a solid county pro who had an amazing run for 15 matches and is now reverting to his real level. Nowhere near good enough to go as slow as he does and assume he can catch up.
We desperately needed him to lose his wicket 2 overs before he did. Not good enough. Really don't understand this number one ranking nonsense.
I keep checking the score and, without having any pictures, it looks like we're winning easily?
All over never in doubt.......
2 balls to spare. Many thanks to Roy who was the only one who really got going and a better effort by Morgan. Moeem is a lovely guy hut cannot bat that high. Livingstone at 4 looks a no brainer.
Really tough pitch. Spin def the option on it too.
Either they have rebuilt the Maginot line in reverse, and done it so well they can keep out microbes, or the Germans are seriously under-testing... or something else?
Or there are no English people travelling to Germany (remember they have (/had?) a quarantine in place. So the pace of spread is currently very slow. Whether it will rapidly pick up via Spain and France in a few weeks...
But the Brits and Germans have been mixing freely in Spain for weeks (I witnessed it in Majorca)
The German numbers do not make sense
Perhaps prudent if you avoid commenting on Germans?
This is consistent with the slowish increase of the last couple of weeks. Probably the increase is a bit higher, bit with everyone on holiday there's a bit less testing. Why delta is slower to take off in Germany I don't know, but I wouldn't say the German numbers do not make sense.
Worldometer
I am very happy to be corrected as this is genuinely mystifying me
Actually, digging deeper it looks like Worldometer is confused: it says "633" German cases in the main table, but in the footnotes it records "1,626 new cases"
Germany doesn't have a single daily update. It has multiple updates every day.
Actually Worldometer has always been complete rubbish on case numbers, hospital numbers, test numbers from the very start so I don't know why anyone would waste any time looking at them.
Official German numbers are updated every morning here:
Because, flawed or not, it's a single page source that allows people to quickly see a summary of what is happening in lots of countries. Clearly if you have a particular interest in tracking a single country you would always go to their own resources.
Yes, it has the best UI. That one page which gives you everything
If it is so awful, it is surprising no one has simply usurped it with a superior model
If India has truly suffered 5 million dead, with more to come - relentlessly, it comes - then it looks like Covid will probably kill 25-30 million humans in its first two or three years, maybe a lot more
That makes it likely the third worst pandemic in history, in sheer numbers, behind only the Flu of 1918 and the Black Death
We are, unfortunately, living through interesting times
Yes but in 1918 they had just come off millions of dead in WW1 too and the Black Death was the same time as the Hundred Years War
It is indeed reassuring to know that the Black Death was, in fact, statistically worse than what we are experiencing now
Black Death led to such overwhelming mortality that even now, you can visit home counties villages and surmise why that field and that field next to the old church were never built on. In some cases the village lies a couple of miles from the ancient church, as the inhabitants scrambled to move away from the pits. And this is largely from the less severe 17th century plague, not the almost completely devastating plague of the 14th century. I often sit in my very old house and wonder what I’d hear if the walls could talk.
The Great Plague of 1665-66 was shortly after the English civil war of course
Or the War of the Three Kingdoms as the less Anglo-centric Britons call them.
Either they have rebuilt the Maginot line in reverse, and done it so well they can keep out microbes, or the Germans are seriously under-testing... or something else?
Or there are no English people travelling to Germany (remember they have (/had?) a quarantine in place. So the pace of spread is currently very slow. Whether it will rapidly pick up via Spain and France in a few weeks...
But the Brits and Germans have been mixing freely in Spain for weeks (I witnessed it in Majorca)
The German numbers do not make sense
Perhaps prudent if you avoid commenting on Germans?
This is consistent with the slowish increase of the last couple of weeks. Probably the increase is a bit higher, bit with everyone on holiday there's a bit less testing. Why delta is slower to take off in Germany I don't know, but I wouldn't say the German numbers do not make sense.
Worldometer
I am very happy to be corrected as this is genuinely mystifying me
Actually, digging deeper it looks like Worldometer is confused: it says "633" German cases in the main table, but in the footnotes it records "1,626 new cases"
Germany doesn't have a single daily update. It has multiple updates every day.
Actually Worldometer has always been complete rubbish on case numbers, hospital numbers, test numbers from the very start so I don't know why anyone would waste any time looking at them.
Official German numbers are updated every morning here:
Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, all heading into big new waves. Indonesia reporting 1,200 dead today. Feck
Meanwhile the Guardian reports that the real death toll in India is 4 MILLION - ie ten times the official death toll, which confirms the most appalling estimates, which were sometimes dismissed as scare-mongering
If India alone has actually suffered 4 million dead so far, then what is the true global total? 15 million? 20 million? And how high might it go?
Covid is already one of the worst pandemics in all human history
The Telegraph says up to 5 million.
Bloody hell
I recall reading the claim, weeks back, that the Indian death toll was understated "ten to fifteen times" judging by the amount of cremations taking place compared with normality
Something in me rebelled against this, and pigeon holed it as "alarmism"
Now it seems it is true. Grim
I wonder if we will ever know the true death toll in China. It beggars belief that 1.4 billion Indians can suffer 5 million dead, with more to come, and neighbouring China, with a similarly vast population, has just.... 4,600 dead?
A thousand times fewer. Really? How?
It’s the great mystery of our age how covid didn’t ravage every corner of China, given the millions of people that travelled from or passed through Wuhan the week before their Chinese New Year lockdown.
No one serious seems to want to talk about it because it raises quite uncomfortable possibilities. Better to just ignore it.
"Careless talk costs lives". Think morale considerations. All warfare has a psychological side, but biological warfare has a built-in factor of "our enemy can and does strike us - and HARD - before we know what's hit us". That's a tiny bit bad for morale in two ways: 1) "we get killed", and 2) "our enemy is super-nasty". The second part of that worked wonders for the Mongols. So the commanders keep shtum.
All hypothetical, of course.
I hadn't realised the Chinese lockdown happened at New Year. That must have amplified the "Year of the Metal Rat" connotations. The last time that came round, millions in China died in a famine.
These are vulnerable, desperate, human beings fleeing violence and persecution.
We need to agree with France a means of processing and approving their requests in France, not bloody Rwanda, and bringing them to the UK to start their new life.
Or how about france grants them asylum and they can start a new life
The idea of asylum is to improve their life.
If home life was so precarious then even france is an improvement.
If India has truly suffered 5 million dead, with more to come - relentlessly, it comes - then it looks like Covid will probably kill 25-30 million humans in its first two or three years, maybe a lot more
That makes it likely the third worst pandemic in history, in sheer numbers, behind only the Flu of 1918 and the Black Death
We are, unfortunately, living through interesting times
Yes but in 1918 they had just come off millions of dead in WW1 too and the Black Death was the same time as the Hundred Years War
It is indeed reassuring to know that the Black Death was, in fact, statistically worse than what we are experiencing now
Black Death led to such overwhelming mortality that even now, you can visit home counties villages and surmise why that field and that field next to the old church were never built on. In some cases the village lies a couple of miles from the ancient church, as the inhabitants scrambled to move away from the pits. And this is largely from the less severe 17th century plague, not the almost completely devastating plague of the 14th century. I often sit in my very old house and wonder what I’d hear if the walls could talk.
The Great Plague of 1665-66 was shortly after the English civil war of course
Or the War of the Three Kingdoms as the less Anglo-centric Britons call them.
I predict that in time it takes me to write this post the rejoinder will be that there were a number of English civil wars listed within the overall label of the War of the Three Kindgoms such that it is still true.
In fairness I imagine for a long time English Civil War probably was the main label given to it by many.
These are vulnerable, desperate, human beings fleeing violence and persecution.
We need to agree with France a means of processing and approving their requests in France, not bloody Rwanda, and bringing them to the UK to start their new life.
Or how about france grants them asylum and they can start a new life
If they wish to come here for whatever reason. Family, diaspora already here, unaccompanied child, we should let them. I can’t see why we wouldn’t
Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, all heading into big new waves. Indonesia reporting 1,200 dead today. Feck
Meanwhile the Guardian reports that the real death toll in India is 4 MILLION - ie ten times the official death toll, which confirms the most appalling estimates, which were sometimes dismissed as scare-mongering
If India alone has actually suffered 4 million dead so far, then what is the true global total? 15 million? 20 million? And how high might it go?
Covid is already one of the worst pandemics in all human history
The Telegraph says up to 5 million.
Bloody hell
I recall reading the claim, weeks back, that the Indian death toll was understated "ten to fifteen times" judging by the amount of cremations taking place compared with normality
Something in me rebelled against this, and pigeon holed it as "alarmism"
Now it seems it is true. Grim
I wonder if we will ever know the true death toll in China. It beggars belief that 1.4 billion Indians can suffer 5 million dead, with more to come, and neighbouring China, with a similarly vast population, has just.... 4,600 dead?
A thousand times fewer. Really? How?
It’s the great mystery of our age how covid didn’t ravage every corner of China, given the millions of people that travelled from or passed through Wuhan the week before their Chinese New Year lockdown.
No one serious seems to want to talk about it because it raises quite uncomfortable possibilities. Better to just ignore it.
Tish tish. They're just REALLY good at stapling people inside houses. Don't worry yourself about this. Next question
You see the thing is, this is what they did in Wuhan after the horse had long since bolted. But I haven’t heard of them doing it anywhere else. It’s hard to comprehend the sheer mass of humanity that moves in Chinese golden week unless you’ve seen it.
Now sure we can look at these stats and note the implausibility of them. But it is very interesting how we never saw visible signs of stress anywhere else outside of Wuhan itself. The Communist Party in inland China is not known for its competence.
There is something decidedly odd about this story that does not hang together. My personal pet theory is that sarscov2 ravaged through most of east Asia in 2019 under the radar but perhaps with a less severe strain. And this had the effect of taking out the vulnerable before we even realised there was a pandemic, and allowed the build up of background immunity without anyone realising. Take a look at the 2019 mortality stats in Japan and Singapore, two countries with high rates of travel from China and reliable stats. You’ll see why I lean this way. Also note the evidence of infections in Europe as early as October 2019.
Doubtless someone will have the evidence to prove why this is wrong. Fair enough if so. But what is the answer then?
These are vulnerable, desperate, human beings fleeing violence and persecution.
We need to agree with France a means of processing and approving their requests in France, not bloody Rwanda, and bringing them to the UK to start their new life.
Or how about france grants them asylum and they can start a new life
If they wish to come here for whatever reason. Family, diaspora already here, unaccompanied child, we should let them. I can’t see why we wouldn’t
How many syrian refugees were there...7 million or so? Are you seriously arguing we should take them all if they want to come? And the next year another 5 million from some other war torn shit hole? How many is your limit. Because this is exactly what you are arguing for with your "If people want to come we should let them" and fuck the rest of us as our services get overwhelmed and our standard of living drops
If India has truly suffered 5 million dead, with more to come - relentlessly, it comes - then it looks like Covid will probably kill 25-30 million humans in its first two or three years, maybe a lot more
That makes it likely the third worst pandemic in history, in sheer numbers, behind only the Flu of 1918 and the Black Death
We are, unfortunately, living through interesting times
Yes but in 1918 they had just come off millions of dead in WW1 too and the Black Death was the same time as the Hundred Years War
It is indeed reassuring to know that the Black Death was, in fact, statistically worse than what we are experiencing now
Black Death would be like 6-7 million dead.
In the UK.
?? It would be far more than that. At a rough estimate it killed a third of the population in England.
Fun facts: 1) the theory that it was spread by rats and in particular by rat fleas dates back only to the 1890s; 2) it may not be true.
Either they have rebuilt the Maginot line in reverse, and done it so well they can keep out microbes, or the Germans are seriously under-testing... or something else?
Or there are no English people travelling to Germany (remember they have (/had?) a quarantine in place. So the pace of spread is currently very slow. Whether it will rapidly pick up via Spain and France in a few weeks...
But the Brits and Germans have been mixing freely in Spain for weeks (I witnessed it in Majorca)
The German numbers do not make sense
Perhaps prudent if you avoid commenting on Germans?
This is consistent with the slowish increase of the last couple of weeks. Probably the increase is a bit higher, bit with everyone on holiday there's a bit less testing. Why delta is slower to take off in Germany I don't know, but I wouldn't say the German numbers do not make sense.
Worldometer
I am very happy to be corrected as this is genuinely mystifying me
Actually, digging deeper it looks like Worldometer is confused: it says "633" German cases in the main table, but in the footnotes it records "1,626 new cases"
Germany doesn't have a single daily update. It has multiple updates every day.
Actually Worldometer has always been complete rubbish on case numbers, hospital numbers, test numbers from the very start so I don't know why anyone would waste any time looking at them.
Official German numbers are updated every morning here:
Because, flawed or not, it's a single page source that allows people to quickly see a summary of what is happening in lots of countries. Clearly if you have a particular interest in tracking a single country you would always go to their own resources.
Yes, it has the best UI. That one page which gives you everything
If it is so awful, it is surprising no one has simply usurped it with a superior model
A bit like using a map of Chicago to navigate NYC, because its the only map you have and its pretty. If it's useless, it's useless, no matter how pretty or convenient, nor the absence of a better alternative.
Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, all heading into big new waves. Indonesia reporting 1,200 dead today. Feck
Meanwhile the Guardian reports that the real death toll in India is 4 MILLION - ie ten times the official death toll, which confirms the most appalling estimates, which were sometimes dismissed as scare-mongering
If India alone has actually suffered 4 million dead so far, then what is the true global total? 15 million? 20 million? And how high might it go?
Covid is already one of the worst pandemics in all human history
The Telegraph says up to 5 million.
Bloody hell
I recall reading the claim, weeks back, that the Indian death toll was understated "ten to fifteen times" judging by the amount of cremations taking place compared with normality
Something in me rebelled against this, and pigeon holed it as "alarmism"
Now it seems it is true. Grim
I wonder if we will ever know the true death toll in China. It beggars belief that 1.4 billion Indians can suffer 5 million dead, with more to come, and neighbouring China, with a similarly vast population, has just.... 4,600 dead?
A thousand times fewer. Really? How?
It’s the great mystery of our age how covid didn’t ravage every corner of China, given the millions of people that travelled from or passed through Wuhan the week before their Chinese New Year lockdown.
No one serious seems to want to talk about it because it raises quite uncomfortable possibilities. Better to just ignore it.
Tish tish. They're just REALLY good at stapling people inside houses. Don't worry yourself about this. Next question
You see the thing is, this is what they did in Wuhan after the horse had long since bolted. But I haven’t heard of them doing it anywhere else. It’s hard to comprehend the sheer mass of humanity that moves in Chinese golden week unless you’ve seen it.
Now sure we can look at these stats and note the implausibility of them. But it is very interesting how we never saw visible signs of stress anywhere else outside of Wuhan itself. The Communist Party in inland China is not known for its competence.
There is something decidedly odd about this story that does not hang together. My personal pet theory is that sarscov2 ravaged through most of east Asia in 2019 under the radar but perhaps with a less severe strain. And this had the effect of taking out the vulnerable before we even realised there was a pandemic, and allowed the build up of background immunity without anyone realising. Take a look at the 2019 mortality stats in Japan and Singapore, two countries with high rates of travel from China and reliable stats. You’ll see why I lean this way. Also note the evidence of infections in Europe as early as October 2019.
Doubtless someone will have the evidence to prove why this is wrong. Fair enough if so. But what is the answer then?
I don't think it's really credible that there was such a pandemic regardless of whether it was a relatively harmful strain without somebody knowing about it. It's only 10 years since Swine Flu is estimated to have infected 1/3 planet whilst killing almost nobody, and we know all about that.
But there is a lot about the apparent low prevalence in East Asia that doesn't make much sense. Perhaps it really does all come down to shutting the borders and restricting travel...
If India has truly suffered 5 million dead, with more to come - relentlessly, it comes - then it looks like Covid will probably kill 25-30 million humans in its first two or three years, maybe a lot more
That makes it likely the third worst pandemic in history, in sheer numbers, behind only the Flu of 1918 and the Black Death
We are, unfortunately, living through interesting times
Yes but in 1918 they had just come off millions of dead in WW1 too and the Black Death was the same time as the Hundred Years War
It is indeed reassuring to know that the Black Death was, in fact, statistically worse than what we are experiencing now
Black Death would be like 6-7 million dead.
In the UK.
?? It would be far more than that. At a rough estimate it killed a third of the population in England.
Yes, figures are not certain but the first wave was a third to half of everyone dead. So 20 to 30 million dead. Although we do now have hospitals, and have moved on from cutting people to bleed them to make them better.
If India has truly suffered 5 million dead, with more to come - relentlessly, it comes - then it looks like Covid will probably kill 25-30 million humans in its first two or three years, maybe a lot more
That makes it likely the third worst pandemic in history, in sheer numbers, behind only the Flu of 1918 and the Black Death
We are, unfortunately, living through interesting times
Yes but in 1918 they had just come off millions of dead in WW1 too and the Black Death was the same time as the Hundred Years War
It is indeed reassuring to know that the Black Death was, in fact, statistically worse than what we are experiencing now
Black Death led to such overwhelming mortality that even now, you can visit home counties villages and surmise why that field and that field next to the old church were never built on. In some cases the village lies a couple of miles from the ancient church, as the inhabitants scrambled to move away from the pits. And this is largely from the less severe 17th century plague, not the almost completely devastating plague of the 14th century. I often sit in my very old house and wonder what I’d hear if the walls could talk.
The Great Plague of 1665-66 was shortly after the English civil war of course
Or the War of the Three Kingdoms as the less Anglo-centric Britons call them.
The war was primarily the King and then his son v the English Parliament and Cromwell.
The Scots changed sides, first supporting Parliament against King Charles 1st, then Prince Charles v Cromwell.
Ireland was primarily Catholics ultimately supportive of the King against Protestant settlers Cromwell ultimately invaded to support
If India has truly suffered 5 million dead, with more to come - relentlessly, it comes - then it looks like Covid will probably kill 25-30 million humans in its first two or three years, maybe a lot more
That makes it likely the third worst pandemic in history, in sheer numbers, behind only the Flu of 1918 and the Black Death
We are, unfortunately, living through interesting times
Yes but in 1918 they had just come off millions of dead in WW1 too and the Black Death was the same time as the Hundred Years War
It is indeed reassuring to know that the Black Death was, in fact, statistically worse than what we are experiencing now
Black Death would be like 6-7 million dead.
In the UK.
?? It would be far more than that. At a rough estimate it killed a third of the population in England.
Fun facts: 1) the theory that it was spread by rats and in particular by rat fleas dates back only to the 1890s; 2) it may not be true.
Either they have rebuilt the Maginot line in reverse, and done it so well they can keep out microbes, or the Germans are seriously under-testing... or something else?
Or there are no English people travelling to Germany (remember they have (/had?) a quarantine in place. So the pace of spread is currently very slow. Whether it will rapidly pick up via Spain and France in a few weeks...
But the Brits and Germans have been mixing freely in Spain for weeks (I witnessed it in Majorca)
The German numbers do not make sense
Perhaps prudent if you avoid commenting on Germans?
This is consistent with the slowish increase of the last couple of weeks. Probably the increase is a bit higher, bit with everyone on holiday there's a bit less testing. Why delta is slower to take off in Germany I don't know, but I wouldn't say the German numbers do not make sense.
Worldometer
I am very happy to be corrected as this is genuinely mystifying me
Actually, digging deeper it looks like Worldometer is confused: it says "633" German cases in the main table, but in the footnotes it records "1,626 new cases"
Germany doesn't have a single daily update. It has multiple updates every day.
Actually Worldometer has always been complete rubbish on case numbers, hospital numbers, test numbers from the very start so I don't know why anyone would waste any time looking at them.
Official German numbers are updated every morning here:
Because, flawed or not, it's a single page source that allows people to quickly see a summary of what is happening in lots of countries. Clearly if you have a particular interest in tracking a single country you would always go to their own resources.
Yes, it has the best UI. That one page which gives you everything
If it is so awful, it is surprising no one has simply usurped it with a superior model
A bit like using a map of Chicago to navigate NYC, because its the only map you have and its pretty. If it's useless, it's useless, not matter how pretty or convenient.
As others have said it is far from useless. Flawed, yes - but they are all flawed.
Which would still see a hung parliament on the UK Survation numbers and PM Starmer propped up by the SNP and LDs, the SDLP, PC, Alliance and Greens despite another Tory majority in England.
The DUP would not support the Tories again unless they removed the Irish Sea border
I am now able to report from the Covid Freedom Day Front Line AKA the gastropubs of Highgate
Verdict: a disappointing lack of jubilation, or, indeed, Freedom. You weren't allowed to order at the bar, you had to check in at the door, the staff were mostly wearing masks, it was table service only
Almost nothing has changed
Indeed I've just been out shopping in Camden and if anything there seem to be MORE masks, people look even more nervous. for the first time ever I saw someone wearing the full Covid monty: mask, visor and disposable blue nitrile gloves WHILE WALKING DOWN THE STREET
Have we terrified humanity - or at least the British part of it - into some ridiculous, unnecessary dystopia?
Maybe you could do another report from a working-class area to see if there any differences. Basildon or Harlow for example.
Camden - down by the Tube - really isn't posh in any sense. It is all of humankind, rich, poor, middling, homeless, trustafarian, Muslim, atheist, Goth, emo, Gen X Gen Z Gen Lambda, 50-something flint knappers buying laksa ingredients
This is a big reason I am attached to it, I like the grittiness and the melee (tho I am glad I live at the slightly posher end, we are all human)
So Camden is probably quite representative - at least of London as a whole (and Highgate felt very similar). Dunno about the UK
I used to agree about Camden. Then the Monarch closed down, just the latest "gritty" late night bar to close and be replaced with yet another wanky cocktail bar. It's become as sterile as the places it used to mock. Sadly there aren't many places left in London that capture the essence of what the city used to be, maybe the Queen's Crescent area of Kentish Town and a few bits of Archway still have some of the magic but London is over.
On bad days I agree with you. I wonder if London can recover from Covid (and everything else)
But then you get a sunny day and the parks fill up and the beer gardens sing and there is, still, a distinct and glorious energy, perhaps made bubblier by the toughness of the times. And it is a very contemporary London energy, not like Paris or NYC or LA
When I am not fretting about all the closed restaurants and bars (and they are worrying) I've also noticed that London literally seems younger, after Covid. The average age on the street and in the shops is down about 5 years. The kidz have taken over. I can see why - the old have fled or are hiding, the middle aged are working from home - and hiding - it will be fascinating to see where it goes from here.
Is London Rome in 440AD? Or Paris in 1944?
I think part of the issue is that the next generation coming up is so much more sterile than mine was. I was talking to a guy selling us some mandy pre-lockdown and he said that his walk ups are predominantly over 30 and he struggles to get under 30s to buy any kind of party drugs because they're all too concerned with health and other such inanities. I expect after COVID it will just get worse.
Who in the next generation is going to do a line of charlie and become a complete c*** to their mates and everyone around them? Those experiences just won't happen now but it's part of growing up and the next generation is just completely missing out because they've become conditioned by social media and influencers that being anything than 100% straight up will be a disaster.
Even outside of that stuff I just think London is becoming a shadow of it's former self and I say that as someone who has just spent a 7 figure number buying a house here.
Some truth in that
The Boris-hating waitress in my Highgate pub said she hated Boris because "my Mum does". I put it to her that she should be rebellious, at her age, not just following her Mum's opinions and she looked utterly bewildered at this concept and she said "oh, No, my Mum would kill me"
The under 30s are a notably conformative and censorious bunch, especially by the standards of my generation, which was outrageously misbehaved. And still is, at times. Ahem
But then, my cohort had it so much easier. Student GRANTS, cheaper property, lad magazines, sex everywhere, exciting new drugs, a permissive society, no apocalyptic worries about climate change and all that, and, maybe most importantly, no social media to cancel us (and Jeez, we would have been cancelled a thousand times a year for some of the shit we did)
So I also have sympathies for the young. They are forced to be dull, it's not their choice. But they ARE rather dull
And now I am definitely walking. A bientot
Yeah I definitely get that their dullness is partly because of the situation they're in wrt the future being so much more difficult for them than even my generation who are now all finally getting on the property ladder (at least my friends are).
I was in the final yea own way and as I said, very good looking.
Very good looking people are frequently boring, for obvious reasons. Also, she may be getting creepy older guy vibes off you and looking at her phone to make you go away!
She's very interesting once she's put her phone away. On the latter I can only give you a virtual eyeroll, but would do it in person if I could.
Why is misbehavitories?
Am I misunderstanding or are you saying you were so drunk you got in your car and drove it straight through a vineyard? Call me a stodgy young person but driving while that drunk, if I haven't misunderstood, is not at all funny.
Kids today
To explain what happened, for various reasons - some quite startling, but too elaborate to detail - I was five hours late for the appointed wine tasting.
By the time I got to this Spanish finca it was tapas hour and everyone was actually guzzling the wine not just tasting. It was really great wine, and food, and everyone was jolly and then I realised, Fuck, I am completely drunk, how do I get my car and bags and self to my hotel over the hill, I can't drive I'm sozzled
But the friendly Spanish hosts said Oh don't worry it's a short little drive you can't hurt anyone, it's one minute
I stumbled out into the sweet warm evening, and looked around, quite confused, as there was no obvious "one minute shortcut" to my hotel
But there was a sort of "parting" in the vineyards. So I decided that must be it and I made a bee line for that in my car, and by the time vines were snapping underneath me it was too late so I bravely soldiered on, drove over a hedge, pushed through a few olive groves and approached my hotel across the garden
Then I immediately fell asleep
Next day I felt quite sheepish. And left early. After scraping the grapes off the car
I was waiting for a stinging email but when it arrived it said We had a very nice time, hope you did - and did not mention me driving through their vineyard at night. Either they did not notice, or they did notice and they are incredibly polite, or they get people doing this all the time? But if that's the case they should build a road, frankly
Perhaps they rely on the tourists to keep the shortcut through the vineyard reasonably well trampled...
Interestingly, when I first told this story, quite recently (this only happened a few weeks back) I told it just as a peculiar anecdote, a Whoah What Happened There thing
But it got a big laugh, and I realised people found it funny
Which is kinda my point: we find bad behaviour amusing. Why? One key thing is that you have to get away with it. If a story of roguish idiocy ends with you being carted off to jail, then no one laughs. But if you escape any repercussions, that can be funny
It's like movies and dramas that glorify criminals - you want to see them get away with it, sticking it to The Man
eg I bet Dick Turpin was in reality a foul-mouthed, violent hoodlum, but we love his story because he evades capture and gets away with it (at first)
To bring this back to politics, this is surely part of Boris' debatable "charm". He drives across the vineyard of normal behaviour, and reverses into the olive grove of public opinion. Some find this amusing and ilkeable. Not all, by any means, but enough to sustain his popularity and polling
Lmao.
Johnson incessantly tries to invite us to compare himself to Churchill, despite even many of his supporters being able to see that he isn’t even in the same league.
So now you’re inviting us to compare yourself with Johnson….
TBF when I compare my brother and I to my dad we were seriously dull. He’s a banker… I’m a banker.
By the age of 30 my dad had, among other things:
- borrowed a piano from the ritz for an impromptu party in the middle of Piccadilly - Walked from Casablanca to Cairo - Hitched a lift on the back of a motor scooter driven by a Roman Catholic priest - Tried to hitch a lift on the president of Algeria’s yacht - Been arrested and thrown into an Algerian prison - Mistook the Earl of Pembroke for his gardener - Poured pink bubble bath in a fountain at a staid “black and white” themed party - Bought and run a mine in Canada - Etc etc
82% of over-65s support a tax increase that is only paid by under-65s, in order to provide more funding to over 65s?
Well blow me down with a feather!
There is no greater love than this: that a person would rob his grandchildren for the sake of himself.
The grandchildren will still inherit the house ultimately if no dementia tax
So the grandchildren should be facing even more taxes while struggling to raise a deposit to pay for their own home, or to pay to put food on the table for their own children, in the hopes that in a few decades their own parents die and can have an inheritance? 🤔
You're perverted if you think that's right.
Grandparents and parents can help with a deposit too and of course the NI the young and middle aged pay will fund the social care many of them will get when they get to old age.
I am a Tory and a conservative and not a liberal like you as I believe in family and preserving assets in the family
You believe in robbing the working in order to preserve assets for those who could pay for their own care but would rather not.
If punishing people who work in order to protect the wealth of the elite is your version of "conservativism" then I want nothing to do with it.
I believe in preserving capital from excess tax as a Tory yes not just income, I am not a liberal like you who favours taxing capital over income and nor am I a socialist who favours heavily taxing both.
Plus NI was set up originally to partly fund healthcare anyway.
As you are a liberal not a conservative you are quite welcome to go to the LDs, would not bother me at all if you did
I never said tax capital, did I? People paying for their own requirements with their own capital isn't a tax.
Besides what I said is I think it is unacceptable to have a tax that is levied on some people's income but not others, that is then used to bribe the voters who don't pay the tax on their incomes. If you want to see this tax raised to bribe voters then make sure the bribed voters have to pay for the tax themselves.
Remove the age-related exemption to NI so NI is paid in full by over 65s and see if they still want to see NI raised. If they do, fair enough, increase it to 13% and charge 13% on pension etc income too just like work-related incomes pay. If they don't, then levying the tax on the workers is not OK to provide more benefits to pensioners.
It is a tax, it is forcing your family to sell the family home on your death and give the proceeds of sale to the government to fund the care you received in your own home.
In any case it is not pensioners who would benefit from inheriting their family home, it is their middle aged children and ultimately their grandchildren over time, so it is right they should pay most of the NI therefore for their parents social care
Lol. Toryism is apparently having the state pay for your social care. “Tax” my arse.
Its having the state pay for your social care in order to protect his inheritance.
Toryism has always been about protecting your inheritance and family estates in large part, it was the Tories of course who were originally the party of the landed gentry, the Whigs then Liberals the party of the merchant class and then the Labour Party until recently the party of the working class (now the party of the public sector and the youngest voters)
Since when was it a case of taxing others in order to protect your inheritance. That is a novel and disreputable idea.
If the Tories go for that, then they deserve to lose. We don't tax millions in order to fund a few people's inheritance.
I agree. It seems immoral to tax the income of those working over those that inherent through luck.
Before anyone starts jumping up at down with poll results.. let's not forget that a lot of people are on holiday.. holiday polls =fish and chip wrapping
If its sustained in Sept,that's different matter altogether.
Re; the Lib Dem poll boost, stories like this one aren't helping the government with that support, and Starmer is beginning to be identified by some as a Blair-like figure who's quiet on civil liberties, in the hope of triangulating.
Journalists could face prison sentences of up to 14 years for stories that embarrass the Government under plans to reform the Official Secrets Act
Leaked secrets that embarrass the government: Matt Hancock; expenses; the PM's a shopping trolley.
Does the phrase, "have no defence in law" actually mean anything any more after that Xtinction Rebellion case? The judge told the jury the defendants had no defence in law, and they acquitted them anyway?
Jury can acquit even if the defendant is obviously guilty. It’s called jury nullification.
If the judge had told me the defendants had no defence in law and I was on the jury, I wouldn't agree to a not guilty verdict tbh. Well not for xtinction rebellion. The public 12 have been a right bunch of yoghurt knitters
If you don't think they should be acquitted, it's your call. You're on the jury.
Jury nullification is the single greatest power the public has.
If India has truly suffered 5 million dead, with more to come - relentlessly, it comes - then it looks like Covid will probably kill 25-30 million humans in its first two or three years, maybe a lot more
That makes it likely the third worst pandemic in history, in sheer numbers, behind only the Flu of 1918 and the Black Death
We are, unfortunately, living through interesting times
Yes but in 1918 they had just come off millions of dead in WW1 too and the Black Death was the same time as the Hundred Years War
It is indeed reassuring to know that the Black Death was, in fact, statistically worse than what we are experiencing now
82% of over-65s support a tax increase that is only paid by under-65s, in order to provide more funding to over 65s?
Well blow me down with a feather!
There is no greater love than this: that a person would rob his grandchildren for the sake of himself.
The grandchildren will still inherit the house ultimately if no dementia tax
So the grandchildren should be facing even more taxes while struggling to raise a deposit to pay for their own home, or to pay to put food on the table for their own children, in the hopes that in a few decades their own parents die and can have an inheritance? 🤔
You're perverted if you think that's right.
Grandparents and parents can help with a deposit too and of course the NI the young and middle aged pay will fund the social care many of them will get when they get to old age.
I am a Tory and a conservative and not a liberal like you as I believe in family and preserving assets in the family
You believe in robbing the working in order to preserve assets for those who could pay for their own care but would rather not.
If punishing people who work in order to protect the wealth of the elite is your version of "conservativism" then I want nothing to do with it.
I believe in preserving capital from excess tax as a Tory yes not just income, I am not a liberal like you who favours taxing capital over income and nor am I a socialist who favours heavily taxing both.
Plus NI was set up originally to partly fund healthcare anyway.
As you are a liberal not a conservative you are quite welcome to go to the LDs, would not bother me at all if you did
I never said tax capital, did I? People paying for their own requirements with their own capital isn't a tax.
Besides what I said is I think it is unacceptable to have a tax that is levied on some people's income but not others, that is then used to bribe the voters who don't pay the tax on their incomes. If you want to see this tax raised to bribe voters then make sure the bribed voters have to pay for the tax themselves.
Remove the age-related exemption to NI so NI is paid in full by over 65s and see if they still want to see NI raised. If they do, fair enough, increase it to 13% and charge 13% on pension etc income too just like work-related incomes pay. If they don't, then levying the tax on the workers is not OK to provide more benefits to pensioners.
It is a tax, it is forcing your family to sell the family home on your death and give the proceeds of sale to the government to fund the care you received in your own home.
In any case it is not pensioners who would benefit from inheriting their family home, it is their middle aged children and ultimately their grandchildren over time, so it is right they should pay most of the NI therefore for their parents social care
Lol. Toryism is apparently having the state pay for your social care. “Tax” my arse.
Its having the state pay for your social care in order to protect his inheritance.
Toryism has always been about protecting your inheritance and family estates in large part, it was the Tories of course who were originally the party of the landed gentry, the Whigs then Liberals the party of the merchant class and then the Labour Party until recently the party of the working class (now the party of the public sector and the youngest voters)
Since when was it a case of taxing others in order to protect your inheritance. That is a novel and disreputable idea.
If the Tories go for that, then they deserve to lose. We don't tax millions in order to fund a few people's inheritance.
I agree. It seems immoral to tax the income of those working over those that inherent through luck.
So said Theresa May in 2017 with her social care proposals and as we all recall the voters rewarded her with a landslide
If India has truly suffered 5 million dead, with more to come - relentlessly, it comes - then it looks like Covid will probably kill 25-30 million humans in its first two or three years, maybe a lot more
That makes it likely the third worst pandemic in history, in sheer numbers, behind only the Flu of 1918 and the Black Death
We are, unfortunately, living through interesting times
Yes but in 1918 they had just come off millions of dead in WW1 too and the Black Death was the same time as the Hundred Years War
It is indeed reassuring to know that the Black Death was, in fact, statistically worse than what we are experiencing now
Black Death would be like 6-7 million dead.
In the UK.
?? It would be far more than that. At a rough estimate it killed a third of the population in England.
Fun facts: 1) the theory that it was spread by rats and in particular by rat fleas dates back only to the 1890s; 2) it may not be true.
I vaguely remember a documentary that argued it wasn’t rats because grain stores weren’t raised off the ground… there were no rats in the Uk…
If India has truly suffered 5 million dead, with more to come - relentlessly, it comes - then it looks like Covid will probably kill 25-30 million humans in its first two or three years, maybe a lot more
That makes it likely the third worst pandemic in history, in sheer numbers, behind only the Flu of 1918 and the Black Death
We are, unfortunately, living through interesting times
Yes but in 1918 they had just come off millions of dead in WW1 too and the Black Death was the same time as the Hundred Years War
It is indeed reassuring to know that the Black Death was, in fact, statistically worse than what we are experiencing now
Black Death would be like 6-7 million dead.
In the UK.
?? It would be far more than that. At a rough estimate it killed a third of the population in England.
Fun facts: 1) the theory that it was spread by rats and in particular by rat fleas dates back only to the 1890s; 2) it may not be true.
I vaguely remember a documentary that argued it wasn’t rats because grain stores weren’t raised off the ground… there were no rats in the Uk…
But I thought it was well known it was pneumonic
But that's bollocks. Devon is richly furnished with antique granite mushrooms about 2 foot high, now very expensive garden ornaments, which were originally what you stood your wooden granary on because the rats couldn't climb over the head of the mushroom to get at the grain.
Re; the Lib Dem poll boost, stories like this one aren't helping the government with that support, and Starmer is beginning to be identified by some as a Blair-like figure who's quiet on civil liberties, in the hope of triangulating.
Journalists could face prison sentences of up to 14 years for stories that embarrass the Government under plans to reform the Official Secrets Act
Leaked secrets that embarrass the government: Matt Hancock; expenses; the PM's a shopping trolley.
Does the phrase, "have no defence in law" actually mean anything any more after that Xtinction Rebellion case? The judge told the jury the defendants had no defence in law, and they acquitted them anyway?
Jury can acquit even if the defendant is obviously guilty. It’s called jury nullification.
If the judge had told me the defendants had no defence in law and I was on the jury, I wouldn't agree to a not guilty verdict tbh. Well not for xtinction rebellion. The public 12 have been a right bunch of yoghurt knitters
If you don't think they should be acquitted, it's your call. You're on the jury.
Juries' power to do this provides a valuable protection against oppressive prosecutions eg Clive Ponting.
Edited: I see that @Foxy made the same point and even more elegantly than me!
Comments
I have Pulpstar on my list as a "credible source", and I'm lazy.
EDIT: ah, out by factor of ten both sides. So our "number" is about 240k dead.
Don't control Covid and double that.
We need to agree with France a means of processing and approving their requests in France, not bloody Rwanda, and bringing them to the UK to start their new life.
The Tories are slumping due to one rule for the plebs, one rule for the rest, and the debacle over not condemning the people booing the footy players who took the knee.
The ones you describe are stuck in camps adjacent to their countries of origin.
In the UK.
Yes, I am an idiot. That makes perfect sense.
I remember early assessments of the Rona which reckoned it had a CFR of 0.5-1%. and that we would all get it eventually
If Rona sweeps the world as it has India that means 40 million dead, worldwide - 0.5% of 8 billion- which now looks pretty plausible: tho it might well be a lot fewer if we can get the vaccine out fast
Sad, really.
Maybe this should be called PasdeCalaisgeld.
Official German numbers are updated every morning here:
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Fallzahlen.html
Scotnat 47.7%
Scotcon 23%
Scotlab 19.6%
Scotlib 6%
Scotgreen 2.1%
Scotreform 0.4%
If it is so awful, it is surprising no one has simply usurped it with a superior model
Worldometers simply aggregates the data from national sites like this for the whole world. Hence the big undercounts for India and China.
All hypothetical, of course.
I hadn't realised the Chinese lockdown happened at New Year. That must have amplified the "Year of the Metal Rat" connotations. The last time that came round, millions in China died in a famine.
In fairness I imagine for a long time English Civil War probably was the main label given to it by many.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1090007/china-confirmed-and-suspected-wuhan-coronavirus-cases-region/
Now sure we can look at these stats and note the implausibility of them. But it is very interesting how we never saw visible signs of stress anywhere else outside of Wuhan itself. The Communist Party in inland China is not known for its competence.
There is something decidedly odd about this story that does not hang together. My personal pet theory is that sarscov2 ravaged through most of east Asia in 2019 under the radar but perhaps with a less severe strain. And this had the effect of taking out the vulnerable before we even realised there was a pandemic, and allowed the build up of background immunity without anyone realising. Take a look at the 2019 mortality stats in Japan and Singapore, two countries with high rates of travel from China and reliable stats. You’ll see why I lean this way. Also note the evidence of infections in Europe as early as October 2019.
Doubtless someone will have the evidence to prove why this is wrong. Fair enough if so. But what is the answer then?
(With reference to HYUFD'S post)
Fun facts: 1) the theory that it was spread by rats and in particular by rat fleas dates back only to the 1890s; 2) it may not be true.
But there is a lot about the apparent low prevalence in East Asia that doesn't make much sense. Perhaps it really does all come down to shutting the borders and restricting travel...
The Scots changed sides, first supporting Parliament against King Charles 1st, then Prince Charles v Cromwell.
Ireland was primarily Catholics ultimately supportive of the King against Protestant settlers Cromwell ultimately invaded to support
In modern Britain, it would be treated.
The DUP would not support the Tories again unless they removed the Irish Sea border
By the age of 30 my dad had, among other things:
- borrowed a piano from the ritz for an impromptu party in the middle of Piccadilly
- Walked from Casablanca to Cairo
- Hitched a lift on the back of a motor scooter driven by a Roman Catholic priest
- Tried to hitch a lift on the president of Algeria’s yacht
- Been arrested and thrown into an Algerian prison
- Mistook the Earl of Pembroke for his gardener
- Poured pink bubble bath in a fountain at a staid “black and white” themed party
- Bought and run a mine in Canada
- Etc etc
If its sustained in Sept,that's different matter altogether.
That and rioting.
But I thought it was well known it was pneumonic
Edited: I see that @Foxy made the same point and even more elegantly than me!