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It is even questionable whether we will ever be able to celebrate “Freedom Day” – politicalbetting.c

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited July 19 in General
imageIt is even questionable whether we will ever be able to celebrate “Freedom Day” – politicalbetting.com

The big plan was that today would be dominated by Johnson’s big speech to the nation with all the Churchillian undertones to celebrate how the country had got through the COVID crisis and now, thanks to the vaccination success, we could look forward to a new future. Even the name Freedom Day fits in with the wartime references.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • FishingFishing Posts: 2,668
    I think this is somewhat pessimistic. Cases may be near their previous peaks but hospitalizations and deaths are at a tiny fraction of what they were, and this wave has peaked in some early hotspots.

    Time to have faith in the excellent vaccines and adaptable technologies get back to enjoying life.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 38,885
    edited July 19
    Fishing said:

    I think this is somewhat pessimistic. Cases may be near their previous peaks but hospitalizations and deaths are at a tiny fraction of what they were, and this wave has peaked in some early hotspots.

    Time to have faith in the excellent vaccines and adaptable technologies get back to enjoying life.

    There's no doubt that Delta has put a little fear into all of us.

    But it's equally true that the world has put in place extraordinary capabilities to create new vaccines on a never-before known scale.

    And sure, we will probably need to tweak our various vaccines to heighten our immune responses to new variants. But that's OK. Let's not forget that in about 15 months, we got locked down, developed a number of vaccines, and have got almost four billion doses into peoples' arms - with more than a billion doses being injected in the last month alone.

    It's going to be OK.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 12,415
    "Are we free on Freedom Day?
    Liberalism was always going to be useless in a pandemic
    By Ed West"

    https://unherd.com/2021/07/are-we-free-on-freedom-day/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 38,885
    Andy_JS said:

    "Are we free on Freedom Day?
    Liberalism was always going to be useless in a pandemic
    By Ed West"

    https://unherd.com/2021/07/are-we-free-on-freedom-day/

    While that's an interesting article, it has literally nothing to do with liberalism. I'm not sure it every mentions it outside of the headline
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,810
    Fishing said:

    I think this is somewhat pessimistic. Cases may be near their previous peaks but hospitalizations and deaths are at a tiny fraction of what they were, and this wave has peaked in some early hotspots.

    Time to have faith in the excellent vaccines and adaptable technologies get back to enjoying life.

    If only therapeutics had progressed as fast as vaccines... :(
  • FishingFishing Posts: 2,668
    edited July 19
    BigRich said:

    from Midnight, we will have less restrictions that Sweden.

    https://www.visitstockholm.com/travel-info/coronavirus-covid-19-information-visitors

    Taking of which, Sweden now seems to be the only EU member not having a 3rd wave, (cases staying at 200-250 a day)

    Perhaps, that's just luck and it will start to rise next week, or maybe that's because lots of young people including under 18s had it asymptomatically in the earlier wayvs and therefor have a level of antibody/T Cell immunity, which in conjunction with the Vaccines in the Old and middle-aged.

    Anybody else with 17 months hindsight wish we had taken the Swedish approach?

    Given that they have had about 25 times as many excess deaths per head as Denmark, not really. And infinitely more than Norway, which had no excess deaths at all

    Complacency, incompetence and sacrificing vulnerable members of society seem to be the hallmarks of the Swedish approach. See the hairraising inquiry last November into their care homes disaster.

    (Not that we were any better on care homes, of course).
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    Mike is right, a phrase that needs to be repeated for the benefit of occasional scoffers on here.

    I think covid is likely to run as a global pandemic for 3 or 4 years.

    The UK could have been in a pole position but our vaccination rate has slowed, we were incredibly slack about vaccinating university age students, and we're not vaccinating under 18's at all.

  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    Fishing said:

    I think this is somewhat pessimistic. Cases may be near their previous peaks but hospitalizations and deaths are at a tiny fraction of what they were, and this wave has peaked in some early hotspots.

    Time to have faith in the excellent vaccines and adaptable technologies get back to enjoying life.

    If we vaccinate under 18's ...

    Otherwise that's 14 million reasons why the virus can carry on spreading.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    Stuart's post about Sweden is excellent. Thank you for it. A really interesting read.

    I think I shocked some friends early on, about a year ago, by suggesting that we should vaccinate our children and young first not the elderly. The latter can shut up shop and isolate whereas we needed the young straight back out there, studying in schools, colleges and universities, working the economy, socialising, travelling. It was a theory and I decided not to push it.

    Sweden's attitude is refreshing.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 38,885
    Fishing said:

    BigRich said:

    from Midnight, we will have less restrictions that Sweden.

    https://www.visitstockholm.com/travel-info/coronavirus-covid-19-information-visitors

    Taking of which, Sweden now seems to be the only EU member not having a 3rd wave, (cases staying at 200-250 a day)

    Perhaps, that's just luck and it will start to rise next week, or maybe that's because lots of young people including under 18s had it asymptomatically in the earlier wayvs and therefor have a level of antibody/T Cell immunity, which in conjunction with the Vaccines in the Old and middle-aged.

    Anybody else with 17 months hindsight wish we had taken the Swedish approach?

    Given that they have had about 25 times as many excess deaths per head as Denmark, not really. And infinitely more than Norway, which had no excess deaths at all

    Complacency, incompetence and sacrificing vulnerable members of society seem to be the hallmarks of the Swedish approach. See the hairraising inquiry last November into their care homes disaster.

    (Not that we were any better on care homes, of course).
    There is a wonderful modelling technique called linear regression.

    You take a whole bunch of variables: mask mandates, population density, travel restrictions, proportion of intergenerational households, etc.

    You then have numbers for - say - 40 countries for Covid.

    Now, the datasets are *small* for Covid (there aren't that many countries), and there is a massive bit that is hard to measure, which is the level of seeding at the start of the pandmic.

    Nevertheless, you then try and work out the equations that fit the data best, using different weightings for each variable, and equations of the equation y = ax + c.

    Sweden, Denmark and Norway all have fairly similar demographics, and similar cities which (luckily) eschew really dense urban high-rise.

    Anyway... the point is that in Sweden, the view is not that they've done remarkably well.
  • d_dd_d Posts: 5
    the severe constraints that COVID will continue to impose on us.

    I am sorry to inform you, but these constraints are imposed on us not by the virus itself, but by the greedy ones and panicking idiots as well.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,183
    edited July 19
    rcs1000 said:

    Fishing said:

    I think this is somewhat pessimistic. Cases may be near their previous peaks but hospitalizations and deaths are at a tiny fraction of what they were, and this wave has peaked in some early hotspots.

    Time to have faith in the excellent vaccines and adaptable technologies get back to enjoying life.

    There's no doubt that Delta has put a little fear into all of us.

    But it's equally true that the world has put in place extraordinary capabilities to create new vaccines on a never-before known scale.

    And sure, we will probably need to tweak our various vaccines to heighten our immune responses to new variants. But that's OK. Let's not forget that in about 15 months, we got locked down, developed a number of vaccines, and have got almost four billion doses into peoples' arms - with more than a billion doses being injected in the last month alone.

    It's going to be OK.
    Fine, so that's sorted then.
    Now about this thing called "(man made) climate change".
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    On Sunday, experts warned that it may be difficult to reach herd immunity in Britain if children are not vaccinated. Nearly one in five people in the UK are under 16 and, despite everyone being offered a vaccine, around 12 per cent of adults have not had a first jab.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/18/children-could-yet-get-covid-vaccines-experts-warn-threat-herd/

    Our failure to vaccinate under 18's will sink us
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 8,895

    On Sunday, experts warned that it may be difficult to reach herd immunity in Britain if children are not vaccinated. Nearly one in five people in the UK are under 16 and, despite everyone being offered a vaccine, around 12 per cent of adults have not had a first jab.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/18/children-could-yet-get-covid-vaccines-experts-warn-threat-herd/

    Our failure to vaccinate under 18's will sink us

    There have been conflicting reports about vaccinating schoolchildren. According to Robert Jenrick, JCVI will make its recommendations this week. The Telegraph reported JCVI will not advise vaccinating schoolchildren. (Fwiw, imo it might be easier to wait till they return to school in September.)
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    edited July 19
    Meanwhile, Leon tried to claim that the Wembley violence was caused by people trying to prevent others who shouldn't be in the stadium. Or some such Ministry of Truth spin.

    Here are 10 mugshots of the thugs, some of whom punched a child and kicked a young Asian man with the words, 'take that you Paki scum'.

    Or maybe it was all altered reality by Russian bots?

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/15620501/cops-ten-people-wanted-wembley-euros-final/

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pressure-grows-on-fa-over-chaos-at-wembley-as-more-breaches-are-uncovered-kk68z5xh2
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    edited July 19

    On Sunday, experts warned that it may be difficult to reach herd immunity in Britain if children are not vaccinated. Nearly one in five people in the UK are under 16 and, despite everyone being offered a vaccine, around 12 per cent of adults have not had a first jab.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/18/children-could-yet-get-covid-vaccines-experts-warn-threat-herd/

    Our failure to vaccinate under 18's will sink us

    There have been conflicting reports about vaccinating schoolchildren. According to Robert Jenrick, JCVI will make its recommendations this week. The Telegraph reported JCVI will not advise vaccinating schoolchildren. (Fwiw, imo it might be easier to wait till they return to school in September.)
    The US and Israel are way ahead on vaccinating under-18's and there are no reports of issues. Indeed, the US is now moving on to 8-11 year olds.

    We are lagging way behind on this. And we should be getting them immune BEFORE they all return together in September to create the perfect petri dish.

    Honestly, the stupidity of this Government beggars belief.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 54,426

    On Sunday, experts warned that it may be difficult to reach herd immunity in Britain if children are not vaccinated. Nearly one in five people in the UK are under 16 and, despite everyone being offered a vaccine, around 12 per cent of adults have not had a first jab.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/18/children-could-yet-get-covid-vaccines-experts-warn-threat-herd/

    Our failure to vaccinate under 18's will sink us

    There have been conflicting reports about vaccinating schoolchildren. According to Robert Jenrick, JCVI will make its recommendations this week. The Telegraph reported JCVI will not advise vaccinating schoolchildren. (Fwiw, imo it might be easier to wait till they return to school in September.)
    The US and Israel are way ahead on vaccinating under-18's and there are no reports of issues. Indeed, the US is now moving on to 8-11 year olds.

    We are lagging way behind on this. And we should be getting them immune BEFORE they all return together in September to create the perfect petri dish.

    Honestly, the stupidity of this Government beggars belief.
    The recommendation is made by the JCVI, isn’t it?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 8,895

    Meanwhile, Leon tried to claim that the Wembley violence was caused by people trying to prevent others who shouldn't be in the stadium. Or some such Ministry of Truth spin.

    Here are 10 mugshots of the thugs, some of whom punched a child and kicked a young Asian man with the words, 'take that you Paki scum'.

    Or maybe it was all altered reality by Russian bots?

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/15620501/cops-ten-people-wanted-wembley-euros-final/

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pressure-grows-on-fa-over-chaos-at-wembley-as-more-breaches-are-uncovered-kk68z5xh2

    I do not see any conflict between those reports and what @Leon wrote about one particular video, whether or not he was right about it showing a clash between ticket-holders and unticketed invaders.

    And the Sun says nothing about whether those mugshots include the people who were involved in that incident or those you mention.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 8,895

    On Sunday, experts warned that it may be difficult to reach herd immunity in Britain if children are not vaccinated. Nearly one in five people in the UK are under 16 and, despite everyone being offered a vaccine, around 12 per cent of adults have not had a first jab.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/18/children-could-yet-get-covid-vaccines-experts-warn-threat-herd/

    Our failure to vaccinate under 18's will sink us

    There have been conflicting reports about vaccinating schoolchildren. According to Robert Jenrick, JCVI will make its recommendations this week. The Telegraph reported JCVI will not advise vaccinating schoolchildren. (Fwiw, imo it might be easier to wait till they return to school in September.)
    The US and Israel are way ahead on vaccinating under-18's and there are no reports of issues. Indeed, the US is now moving on to 8-11 year olds.

    We are lagging way behind on this. And we should be getting them immune BEFORE they all return together in September to create the perfect petri dish.

    Honestly, the stupidity of this Government beggars belief.
    It will be more efficient to vaccinate schoolchildren at school. We are more likely to approach full compliance that way. I'd like to have seen this done last term but it wasn't, so September will be the next opportunity. BCG and HPV vaccinations are already given at school, so there is nothing new there.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 28,079
    edited July 19
    I know one skiving butterball who'll be ecstatic to be spending 'Freedom Day' in a grace and favour mansion with large estate and swimming pool, waited on hand and foot and his lazy fecker inclinations legitimised & indulged.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 40,502

    “Churchillian undertones”

    This man is a total fraud. Churchill wouldn’t have tolerated a buffoon like him for five minutes.

    He tolerated one (Duff Cooper) for nearly thirty years.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 23,276
    edited July 19
    Good morning one and all. O/t, bas something gone wrong with the BBC site, does anyone know. Seems to be flickering. Tried both on my Mac and on my iPhone!

    Fortunately the Guardian is OK, so I can get the mornings news!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 40,502

    I know one skiving butterball who'll be ecstatic to be spending 'Freedom Day' in a grace and favour mansion with large estate and swimming pool, waited on hand and foot and his lazy fecker inclinations legitimised & indulged.

    I thought he was talking to the police about that missing money this morning?

    If so, surely they’ll be at the cop shop not the poolside?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 8,895

    Good morning one and all. O/t, bas something gone wrong with the BBC site, does anyone know. Seems to be flickering. Tried both on my Mac and on my iPhone!

    Fortunately the Guardian is OK, so I can get the mornings news!

    Looks OK to me. Try clearing your browser cache.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 23,276

    Good morning one and all. O/t, bas something gone wrong with the BBC site, does anyone know. Seems to be flickering. Tried both on my Mac and on my iPhone!

    Fortunately the Guardian is OK, so I can get the mornings news!

    Looks OK to me. Try clearing your browser cache.
    Seems OK now; odd that it was on two devices, though. Although of course, the same wi-fi.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 38,885

    On Sunday, experts warned that it may be difficult to reach herd immunity in Britain if children are not vaccinated. Nearly one in five people in the UK are under 16 and, despite everyone being offered a vaccine, around 12 per cent of adults have not had a first jab.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/18/children-could-yet-get-covid-vaccines-experts-warn-threat-herd/

    Our failure to vaccinate under 18's will sink us

    There have been conflicting reports about vaccinating schoolchildren. According to Robert Jenrick, JCVI will make its recommendations this week. The Telegraph reported JCVI will not advise vaccinating schoolchildren. (Fwiw, imo it might be easier to wait till they return to school in September.)
    The US and Israel are way ahead on vaccinating under-18's and there are no reports of issues. Indeed, the US is now moving on to 8-11 year olds.

    We are lagging way behind on this. And we should be getting them immune BEFORE they all return together in September to create the perfect petri dish.

    Honestly, the stupidity of this Government beggars belief.
    That's not quite true yet... 8-11 year olds are expected to be approved in September, once they have decided on the optimum dosing quantities and strategies.

    I expect that my 11 year old will be jabbed early in September, which will make international travel a whole bunch easier. (I also expect to get a Delta booster in the Autumn.)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 38,440
    The data for healthcare is laggy and about a week behind at the moment but by 13th July some 480,507 had been admitted to hospital because of Covid in the UK. I find that quite a staggering number and we continue to admit people at the rate of 740 a day. This is of course massively down on previous peaks, notably January, but the government has to watch these numbers carefully. The consequences for all other medical procedures must be truly dire.

    I had hoped that the current wave would have burned itself out by now. It clearly hasn't. The decision to remove restrictions today is a finely balanced weighing of risks. I think the overall picture still favours unlocking but its certainly not anything to celebrate. It involves recognition that both our hospitals and our mortuaries will be somewhat busy for a long time yet.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 3,936
    edited July 19
    ydoethur said:

    “Churchillian undertones”

    This man is a total fraud. Churchill wouldn’t have tolerated a buffoon like him for five minutes.

    He tolerated one (Duff Cooper) for nearly thirty years.
    The visceral loathing of Boris is blinding people from reality. I feel sure Boris doesn't mind. Playing g the man rather than the ball ends in failure. Ask the Ref.....
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 3,936

    Good morning one and all. O/t, bas something gone wrong with the BBC site, does anyone know. Seems to be flickering. Tried both on my Mac and on my iPhone!

    Fortunately the Guardian is OK, so I can get the mornings news!

    Looks OK to me. Try clearing your browser cache.
    Seems OK now; odd that it was on two devices, though. Although of course, the same wi-fi.
    I fear you have made a serious error if you think you can get "The News" from the Guardian. It's a spiteful left wing rag in the same way the Mail is a spiteful right wing rag. If you want news... Read The Times and ignore all the other news channels, particularly the BBC who has lost its reputation for truth and accuracy.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 34,764
    21 C at 0700, another record. Since I had a dog, at least. Before then I’d still be in bed.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 49,939
    Perspective:

    NEW: probably the most important Covid chart I’ve made

    As Delta goes global, it’s a tale of two pandemics, as the heavily-vaccinated Western world talks of reopening while deaths across Africa and Asia soar to record highs




    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1416805508724502533?s=20
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 938

    Good morning one and all. O/t, bas something gone wrong with the BBC site, does anyone know. Seems to be flickering. Tried both on my Mac and on my iPhone!

    Fortunately the Guardian is OK, so I can get the mornings news!

    Looks OK to me. Try clearing your browser cache.
    Seems OK now; odd that it was on two devices, though. Although of course, the same wi-fi.
    I fear you have made a serious error if you think you can get "The News" from the Guardian. It's a spiteful left wing rag in the same way the Mail is a spiteful right wing rag. If you want news... Read The Times and ignore all the other news channels, particularly the BBC who has lost its reputation for truth and accuracy.
    when was the last time the BBC was untruthful?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 40,502
    IanB2 said:

    That we are not having to bear some ludicrous speech from that twat in Downing Street is the only consolation from today’s fiasco.

    Another reason to love the Saj.

    A man of principle who stood up to that twat Cummings.

    A man who has now skilfully spared us speechifying from Johnson,

    Saj for PM I say.

    Have a good morning.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,147
    So Freedom Day.

    To mark the occasion, I’m supposed to be going to the office for a day this week to say hello. But I dunno… I know I will be seated around anti vaxxers. And there’s been cases on the floor every week the last month from the small number of people there.

    I am a little averse to in case I get pinged and need to isolate for what would be the (losing count now) fifth time in the last 18 months? Don’t have the app but presume big employers play by the rules and feed their data to T&T.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 49,939
    And the UK in more detail - cases over time:



    https://twitter.com/john_cope/status/1416850870453538819?s=20
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 3,388

    On Sunday, experts warned that it may be difficult to reach herd immunity in Britain if children are not vaccinated. Nearly one in five people in the UK are under 16 and, despite everyone being offered a vaccine, around 12 per cent of adults have not had a first jab.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/18/children-could-yet-get-covid-vaccines-experts-warn-threat-herd/

    Our failure to vaccinate under 18's will sink us

    There have been conflicting reports about vaccinating schoolchildren. According to Robert Jenrick, JCVI will make its recommendations this week. The Telegraph reported JCVI will not advise vaccinating schoolchildren. (Fwiw, imo it might be easier to wait till they return to school in September.)
    Though it's totally out of character for The Sunday Telegraph, or any other paper, to reveal something they would like to be true as hard fact. Especially if they hope that their revelation will make the fact, so to speak.

    (The bigger question might be the one about- if we do want to vaccinate teens, how and when do we get the 10 million or so doses of mRNA vaccine needed?)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 23,276

    Good morning one and all. O/t, bas something gone wrong with the BBC site, does anyone know. Seems to be flickering. Tried both on my Mac and on my iPhone!

    Fortunately the Guardian is OK, so I can get the mornings news!

    Looks OK to me. Try clearing your browser cache.
    Seems OK now; odd that it was on two devices, though. Although of course, the same wi-fi.
    I fear you have made a serious error if you think you can get "The News" from the Guardian. It's a spiteful left wing rag in the same way the Mail is a spiteful right wing rag. If you want news... Read The Times and ignore all the other news channels, particularly the BBC who has lost its reputation for truth and accuracy.
    Bait the hook and a fish will come.......
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 23,276
    edited July 19
    IanB2 said:

    21 C at 0700, another record. Since I had a dog, at least. Before then I’d still be in bed.


    'Only' 18.8 here; shall I have to turn the heating back on?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 25,169
    moonshine said:

    So Freedom Day.

    To mark the occasion, I’m supposed to be going to the office for a day this week to say hello. But I dunno… I know I will be seated around anti vaxxers. And there’s been cases on the floor every week the last month from the small number of people there.

    I am a little averse to in case I get pinged and need to isolate for what would be the (losing count now) fifth time in the last 18 months? Don’t have the app but presume big employers play by the rules and feed their data to T&T.

    T and T phone positive cases and take a history of contacts, then phone them. At least they did back in November, when Mrs Foxy had it. The App is anonymous, so it would be your Co-workers who grassed you up.

    Not much difference for me, same rules as we have grown to know and love remain re social distancing, masks etc in the hospital settings. I hope that Matron has put someone with the hide of a rhino on the door today to deal with the covidiots that refuse to comply with hospital rules.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 8,895
    edited July 19

    ydoethur said:

    “Churchillian undertones”

    This man is a total fraud. Churchill wouldn’t have tolerated a buffoon like him for five minutes.

    He tolerated one (Duff Cooper) for nearly thirty years.
    The visceral loathing of Boris is blinding people from reality. I feel sure Boris doesn't mind. Playing g the man rather than the ball ends in failure. Ask the Ref.....
    Is there visceral loathing of Boris? There are rational objections to the Prime Minister's disregard for truth, disregard for convention, disregard for the law. Some, including Conservatives, will object to his politics. Others, again including Conservatives, will have reservations about his apparently chaotic style.

    But since Boris does keep winning elections, it is hard to see there are widespread visceral or reflexive horrors.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 23,276
    Apropos of the BBC, why, I wonder, are they making such a big thing of the new game, the Hundred, which appears to be a) based on cricket and b) solely for TV?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 38,885
    DavidL said:

    The data for healthcare is laggy and about a week behind at the moment but by 13th July some 480,507 had been admitted to hospital because of Covid in the UK. I find that quite a staggering number and we continue to admit people at the rate of 740 a day. This is of course massively down on previous peaks, notably January, but the government has to watch these numbers carefully. The consequences for all other medical procedures must be truly dire.

    I had hoped that the current wave would have burned itself out by now. It clearly hasn't. The decision to remove restrictions today is a finely balanced weighing of risks. I think the overall picture still favours unlocking but its certainly not anything to celebrate. It involves recognition that both our hospitals and our mortuaries will be somewhat busy for a long time yet.

    That's spot on.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 38,885

    Perspective:

    NEW: probably the most important Covid chart I’ve made

    As Delta goes global, it’s a tale of two pandemics, as the heavily-vaccinated Western world talks of reopening while deaths across Africa and Asia soar to record highs




    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1416805508724502533?s=20

    Great chart.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 38,885

    Good morning one and all. O/t, bas something gone wrong with the BBC site, does anyone know. Seems to be flickering. Tried both on my Mac and on my iPhone!

    Fortunately the Guardian is OK, so I can get the mornings news!

    Looks OK to me. Try clearing your browser cache.
    Seems OK now; odd that it was on two devices, though. Although of course, the same wi-fi.
    I fear you have made a serious error if you think you can get "The News" from the Guardian. It's a spiteful left wing rag in the same way the Mail is a spiteful right wing rag. If you want news... Read The Times and ignore all the other news channels, particularly the BBC who has lost its reputation for truth and accuracy.
    when was the last time the BBC was untruthful?
    "That Jimmy Saville is exactly the right kind of guy to run a kids show..."
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 11,744
    Morning all! School friend of mine very excited by the reopening of clubs. Lots from him on Twitter about finally getting back into G-A-Y, then the obligatory party scenes at midnight as they reopened. Can't help worrying for him and all the rest of them. And then woke up this morning with text from my 20 year old saying that he also has tested positive.

    As for the planned "aren't I marvellous" Boris-fest, I just scratch my head. Despite the early rapid successes of the vax programme we're no longer way ahead of the pack. All the metrics are going the wrong way, and "its only deaths and hospitalisations that matter" are above where they were last time we added more restrictions.

    There is no point arguing about whys and wherefores - we've done it now. The people cheering this one because "there's no risk" or "my liberty comes above your life" need not post "who could have foreseen this" when we reimpose restrictions again.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 10,449

    Perspective:

    NEW: probably the most important Covid chart I’ve made

    As Delta goes global, it’s a tale of two pandemics, as the heavily-vaccinated Western world talks of reopening while deaths across Africa and Asia soar to record highs




    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1416805508724502533?s=20

    Comparisons with countries with vastly different testing and death records is fairly pointless without great nuance but anyway those graphs show that the worst of the pandemic was still in the older, more inter connected western countries.

    And seriously, who labels a chart with Jul 1 and Jul 15, when they are from different years!
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,147
    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    So Freedom Day.

    To mark the occasion, I’m supposed to be going to the office for a day this week to say hello. But I dunno… I know I will be seated around anti vaxxers. And there’s been cases on the floor every week the last month from the small number of people there.

    I am a little averse to in case I get pinged and need to isolate for what would be the (losing count now) fifth time in the last 18 months? Don’t have the app but presume big employers play by the rules and feed their data to T&T.

    T and T phone positive cases and take a history of contacts, then phone them. At least they did back in November, when Mrs Foxy had it. The App is anonymous, so it would be your Co-workers who grassed you up.

    Not much difference for me, same rules as we have grown to know and love remain re social distancing, masks etc in the hospital settings. I hope that Matron has put someone with the hide of a rhino on the door today to deal with the covidiots that refuse to comply with hospital rules.
    It wasn’t so long ago was it when we had the MRSA hospital outbreaks and people were wistful of the days when matron ensured everything was kept spotlessly clean.

    With modern understanding of pathogens and superior technology, you would think we could be at the point where ventilation and/or air filtration in hospitals could be so good in hospitals that they’d be the safest place to be during a pandemic. I mean it doesn’t need to be silicon chip factory level everywhere necessarily but the principle should be the same. And minimise the need to touch surfaces in public areas too (auto doors and taps, voice lifts etc…).

    We’ve got a window of unknown length to sort this stuff out before we get the Big One. A virus that doesn’t age discriminate, is as infectious as delta, which mutates easily and has a slightly higher IFR than covid. We’re damn lucky sars-cov2 is not particularly mutable and has such a low IFR in populations younger than 60.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 25,169

    ydoethur said:

    “Churchillian undertones”

    This man is a total fraud. Churchill wouldn’t have tolerated a buffoon like him for five minutes.

    He tolerated one (Duff Cooper) for nearly thirty years.
    The visceral loathing of Boris is blinding people from reality. I feel sure Boris doesn't mind. Playing g the man rather than the ball ends in failure. Ask the Ref.....
    Is there visceral loathing of Boris? There are rational objections to the Prime Minister's disregard for truth, disregard for convention, disregard for the law. Some, including Conservatives, will object to his politics. Others, again including Conservatives, will have reservations about his apparently chaotic style.

    But since Boris does keep winning elections, it is hard to see there are widespread visceral or reflexive horrors.
    Mrs Foxy certainly loathes Johnson viscerally, makes my dislike of the oaf seem quite mild. I fear for the telly when his gunning face pops up in another piece of fancy dress. At least we are spared that for the next 10 days while he lies low in his mansion.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 10,449

    On Sunday, experts warned that it may be difficult to reach herd immunity in Britain if children are not vaccinated. Nearly one in five people in the UK are under 16 and, despite everyone being offered a vaccine, around 12 per cent of adults have not had a first jab.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/18/children-could-yet-get-covid-vaccines-experts-warn-threat-herd/

    Our failure to vaccinate under 18's will sink us

    There have been conflicting reports about vaccinating schoolchildren. According to Robert Jenrick, JCVI will make its recommendations this week. The Telegraph reported JCVI will not advise vaccinating schoolchildren. (Fwiw, imo it might be easier to wait till they return to school in September.)
    Zahawi was quite clear on this on Sky earlier. Recommend to vaccinate small groups of kids (at risk, live with someone at risk, approaching 18 mentioned). Not recommending for or against vaccinating other groups yet, but seeking further data, particularly from US and Israel.

    Will probably be reported in the media as advising against, but that does not seem to be the case, it is wait and see for now.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 58,366

    On Sunday, experts warned that it may be difficult to reach herd immunity in Britain if children are not vaccinated. Nearly one in five people in the UK are under 16 and, despite everyone being offered a vaccine, around 12 per cent of adults have not had a first jab.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/18/children-could-yet-get-covid-vaccines-experts-warn-threat-herd/

    Our failure to vaccinate under 18's will sink us

    There have been conflicting reports about vaccinating schoolchildren. According to Robert Jenrick, JCVI will make its recommendations this week. The Telegraph reported JCVI will not advise vaccinating schoolchildren. (Fwiw, imo it might be easier to wait till they return to school in September.)
    The US and Israel are way ahead on vaccinating under-18's and there are no reports of issues. Indeed, the US is now moving on to 8-11 year olds.

    We are lagging way behind on this. And we should be getting them immune BEFORE they all return together in September to create the perfect petri dish.

    Honestly, the stupidity of this Government beggars belief.
    Even ignoring the fact its the JCVI not the Government making the recommendation, there is not much in independent data on the bizarre notion that the UK is lagging.

    image
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,035

    On Sunday, experts warned that it may be difficult to reach herd immunity in Britain if children are not vaccinated. Nearly one in five people in the UK are under 16 and, despite everyone being offered a vaccine, around 12 per cent of adults have not had a first jab.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/18/children-could-yet-get-covid-vaccines-experts-warn-threat-herd/

    Our failure to vaccinate under 18's will sink us

    There have been conflicting reports about vaccinating schoolchildren. According to Robert Jenrick, JCVI will make its recommendations this week. The Telegraph reported JCVI will not advise vaccinating schoolchildren. (Fwiw, imo it might be easier to wait till they return to school in September.)
    Zahawi was quite clear on this on Sky earlier. Recommend to vaccinate small groups of kids (at risk, live with someone at risk, approaching 18 mentioned). Not recommending for or against vaccinating other groups yet, but seeking further data, particularly from US and Israel.

    Will probably be reported in the media as advising against, but that does not seem to be the case, it is wait and see for now.
    The antivax Telegraph is the worst tbh
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 41,949
    IanB2 said:

    That we are not having to bear some ludicrous speech from that twat in Downing Street is the only consolation from today’s fiasco.

    Indeed. But it's a big consolation. Think of the mutated metaphors that have been spared death this morning.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 34,764
    edited July 19
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    The data for healthcare is laggy and about a week behind at the moment but by 13th July some 480,507 had been admitted to hospital because of Covid in the UK. I find that quite a staggering number and we continue to admit people at the rate of 740 a day. This is of course massively down on previous peaks, notably January, but the government has to watch these numbers carefully. The consequences for all other medical procedures must be truly dire.

    I had hoped that the current wave would have burned itself out by now. It clearly hasn't. The decision to remove restrictions today is a finely balanced weighing of risks. I think the overall picture still favours unlocking but its certainly not anything to celebrate. It involves recognition that both our hospitals and our mortuaries will be somewhat busy for a long time yet.

    That's spot on.
    Current hospitalisation numbers would be more useful than some historical cumulative?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 3,936
    IanB2 said:

    That we are not having to bear some ludicrous speech from that twat in Downing Street is the only consolation from today’s fiasco.

    A typical ludicrous comment with the preempt of the attack on Boris before anything else...
  • TazTaz Posts: 1,090
    rcs1000 said:

    Good morning one and all. O/t, bas something gone wrong with the BBC site, does anyone know. Seems to be flickering. Tried both on my Mac and on my iPhone!

    Fortunately the Guardian is OK, so I can get the mornings news!

    Looks OK to me. Try clearing your browser cache.
    Seems OK now; odd that it was on two devices, though. Although of course, the same wi-fi.
    I fear you have made a serious error if you think you can get "The News" from the Guardian. It's a spiteful left wing rag in the same way the Mail is a spiteful right wing rag. If you want news... Read The Times and ignore all the other news channels, particularly the BBC who has lost its reputation for truth and accuracy.
    when was the last time the BBC was untruthful?
    "That Jimmy Saville is exactly the right kind of guy to run a kids show..."
    Now then, now then
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 3,936

    Apropos of the BBC, why, I wonder, are they making such a big thing of the new game, the Hundred, which appears to be a) based on cricket and b) solely for TV?

    ???
    Because they are broadcasting it....???
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 11,744

    IanB2 said:

    That we are not having to bear some ludicrous speech from that twat in Downing Street is the only consolation from today’s fiasco.

    A typical ludicrous comment with the preempt of the attack on Boris before anything else...
    I take it that you are a big supporter of his claim that at no time yesterday did he go onto the dodge lockdown trial?
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    edited July 19

    IanB2 said:

    That we are not having to bear some ludicrous speech from that twat in Downing Street is the only consolation from today’s fiasco.

    A typical ludicrous comment with the preempt of the attack on Boris before anything else...
    So you'd actually like to hear Boris Johnson give one of his blustering buffoonery talks on this day with everything else falling apart around him?

    Wow. Not even the Daily Telegraph agrees with you. They are with IanB2 and most everyone else in the country on that.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/07/18/eight-decades-churchills-v-victory-boris-johnsons-freedom-rhetoric/

  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 3,936

    IanB2 said:

    That we are not having to bear some ludicrous speech from that twat in Downing Street is the only consolation from today’s fiasco.

    A typical ludicrous comment with the preempt of the attack on Boris before anything else...
    I take it that you are a big supporter of his claim that at no time yesterday did he go onto the dodge lockdown trial?
    No he obviously lied.. that's fair enough.. what I don't like is the preamble....
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 20,495
    edited July 19
    PEople were asking about how to get the vaccination data per region. It's actually on the Gov Dashboard but it is slightly hidden.

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations?areaType=ltla&areaName=Aberdeen City

    You need to select a local authority area and then at the bottom of the page you'll get a table which shows you vax numbers per local authority for the whole UK.

    Top 10 by 1st vax percentage are all Scottish

    East Dunbartonshire 96.8
    Argyll and Bute 95
    East Renfrewshire 94.9
    Scottish Borders 93.9
    South Lanarkshire 93.8
    East Lothian 93.6
    Dumfries and Galloway 93.4
    South Ayrshire 93.3
    Clackmannanshire 93.3
    Shetland Islands 93.3
    Bottom 10 are all London

    Lambeth 60.8
    Islington 60.4
    Haringey 59.9
    Hackney and City of London 59.3
    Brent 58.9
    Camden 58.8
    Hammersmith and Fulham 57.2
    Newham 56.5
    Kensington and Chelsea 56.4
    Westminster 55.5
    Almost certainly numerator/denominator issues going onther.


  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 3,936
    rcs1000 said:

    Good morning one and all. O/t, bas something gone wrong with the BBC site, does anyone know. Seems to be flickering. Tried both on my Mac and on my iPhone!

    Fortunately the Guardian is OK, so I can get the mornings news!

    Looks OK to me. Try clearing your browser cache.
    Seems OK now; odd that it was on two devices, though. Although of course, the same wi-fi.
    I fear you have made a serious error if you think you can get "The News" from the Guardian. It's a spiteful left wing rag in the same way the Mail is a spiteful right wing rag. If you want news... Read The Times and ignore all the other news channels, particularly the BBC who has lost its reputation for truth and accuracy.
    when was the last time the BBC was untruthful?
    "That Jimmy Saville is exactly the right kind of guy to run a kids show..."
    These things take time to come to.light.. Martin Bashir...
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760

    On Sunday, experts warned that it may be difficult to reach herd immunity in Britain if children are not vaccinated. Nearly one in five people in the UK are under 16 and, despite everyone being offered a vaccine, around 12 per cent of adults have not had a first jab.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/18/children-could-yet-get-covid-vaccines-experts-warn-threat-herd/

    Our failure to vaccinate under 18's will sink us

    There have been conflicting reports about vaccinating schoolchildren. According to Robert Jenrick, JCVI will make its recommendations this week. The Telegraph reported JCVI will not advise vaccinating schoolchildren. (Fwiw, imo it might be easier to wait till they return to school in September.)
    Zahawi was quite clear
    The Government is not quite clear about anything.

    Leaving aside the fact that Zahawi gives different messages by the day, Government ministers are constantly contradicting one another. Often on the same day, even in the same programme.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 11,744

    IanB2 said:

    That we are not having to bear some ludicrous speech from that twat in Downing Street is the only consolation from today’s fiasco.

    A typical ludicrous comment with the preempt of the attack on Boris before anything else...
    I take it that you are a big supporter of his claim that at no time yesterday did he go onto the dodge lockdown trial?
    No he obviously lied.. that's fair enough.. what I don't like is the preamble....
    So you recognise that he is a liar. That he thinks you are stupid enough to believe what he says. And yet attack people who point out that he is a lying twat.

    You like being lied to? Because he's on your side...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 18,926
    Children must be a fair way to herd immunity all by themselves. Whether we vaccinate them is probably neither here nor there.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 58,366

    BigRich said:

    What advantages have we actually gained? Are we any more free or open than elsewhere in Europe? It doesn't seem like it

    Yes we are. We're the most open nation in Europe.
    Citation
    How about all the people crying havoc about Boris removing all legal restrictions, something no other nation in Europe has done?
    rcs1000 said:

    What advantages have we actually gained? Are we any more free or open than elsewhere in Europe? It doesn't seem like it

    Yes we are. We're the most open nation in Europe.
    I don't think that's true - I think Denmark is more open than the UK.
    Debateable as it stands, but 100% definitely not the case as of midnight.

    In Denmark you can't enter a gym, or attend any organised indoor sport events without a Corona Passport. In the UK you've been able to attend a gym without a Covid passport.

    In Denmark you need a Corona Passport to enter restraurants, cafes and bars. You don't in the UK. In Denmark all restaraunts, cafes and bars much close no later than 2am.

    In Denmark for massages, haircuts and tattoos etc you must present a Covid Passport. You don't in the UK.

    In Denmark you can't enter a museum, amusement park, cinema, venues, zoos, stadiums or other sport venues without a corona passport. You can in the UK.

    In Denmark all discos and nightclubs are closed, they will be open tonight in the UK.

    In Denmark its illegal to have indoor events and activities of more than 250 people, all such restrictions are being abolished in the UK.

    In Denmark a face mask is legally required on public transport. Its not in the UK from tomorrow.

    https://en.coronasmitte.dk/rules-and-regulations
    from Midnight, we will have less restrictions that Sweden.

    https://www.visitstockholm.com/travel-info/coronavirus-covid-19-information-visitors

    Taking of which, Sweden now seems to be the only EU member not having a 3rd wave, (cases staying at 200-250 a day)

    Perhaps, that's just luck and it will start to rise next week, or maybe that's because lots of young people including under 18s had it asymptomatically in the earlier wayvs and therefor have a level of antibody/T Cell immunity, which in conjunction with the Vaccines in the Old and middle-aged.

    Anybody else with 17 months hindsight wish we had taken the Swedish approach?
    In order to understand “the Swedish approach” you have to understand a bit about Swedish culture. England could never have adopted the Swedish approach, because England (and most of RoW) lacks lots of unusual characteristics of Swedish society.

    The first and most important thing that you must learn about Sweden is the heavy bias towards the young. Swedes have a disregard for the upper middle aged and elderly that most other cultures would find utterly shocking. The elderly are *not* regarded as a reservoir of wisdom, automatically deserving respect, even veneration, as in most world cultures. It is not that Swedes dislike older people, it is just that we don’t see them as a group deserving special status. This underlies *everything* about Swedish society, and is probably the reason most foreigners find it difficult to get a grasp on us. They realise we are different, perhaps even odd, but they can’t quite put their finger on it.

    Allied to this phenomenon, children and young adults are very highly valued and resources are heavily invested in their welfare and wellbeing.

    Further, “the family”, while important, is not the be all and end all of societal structure. And levels of faith are very low by international standards (Scotland and Sweden were the first two countries to consistently measure atheists/agnostics to be in a majority).

    Then we have other odd Swedish characteristics, like a strong distrust of melodrama, suspicion of eccentrics and contrarians, a near-unanimous trust in teamwork as a problem solving technique, and remarkable gender equality (feminism is not a characteristic of the left in Sweden; women, and most men, throughout all social groups and all income levels are fundamentalist feminists in a way astonishing to most other cultures). Huge trust in technology, very low population density, small households in low density housing, many single households, very high minimum housing standards, low levels of corruption, a willingness to pay high taxes, high trust in politicians and public bodies, a sane media, etc etc etc

    Combine this with an extraordinarily decentralised civil service and political structure, and you might begin to understand our Covid19 response.

    We didn’t panic. We acted as a team. We protected the long-term interests of our children and young adults.

    It’s not rocket science.

    For people interested in the topic, I can recommend this article, which includes a fascinating diagram of world cultures: look how Sweden is way up to the top right (very low resolution and hard to read: better resolution images are available):

    ‘Sweden, the extreme country’

    https://www.iffs.se/en/news/sweden-the-extreme-country/
    That's an interesting map.

    Interesting to note that GB is on that map considered closest to . . . Australia and New Zealand. Funny that!
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,700
    Perhaps the approach to schools in summer has been woefully misguided. Suppose rather than having operated a policy for the last 3 months of mass testing and mass isolation they had done neither...

    Huge numbers might have had it, there would have been little disruption to schooling, and the debate about vaccination might have been largely academic...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 49,939
    Peter Murrell is under growing pressure from within the SNP to step aside until a police investigation into the party’s independence fund concludes.
    It comes after a dozen more fraud complaints were revealed yesterday.


    https://twitter.com/Mike_Blackley/status/1417012077835788288?s=20
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 11,744

    IanB2 said:

    That we are not having to bear some ludicrous speech from that twat in Downing Street is the only consolation from today’s fiasco.

    A typical ludicrous comment with the preempt of the attack on Boris before anything else...
    I take it that you are a big supporter of his claim that at no time yesterday did he go onto the dodge lockdown trial?
    No he obviously lied.. that's fair enough.. what I don't like is the preamble....
    With apologies for quoting the same comment twice.

    This here is why the government are still comfortably ahead in the polls. "Stop attacking Boris" says the commentator in response to Boris lying. So you check if the commentator thinks Boris is telling the truth. "no, he obviously lied".

    But you still support him. We have ended up with a polity where people support a Prime Minister who lies to their face because he thinks they are stupid - despite knowing that he is lying to them because he thinks they are stupid.

    Eugh, you lot attack Boris before anything else! You are so biased!
    Erm, we're pointing out that he is lying and treating people like fools.
    Yeah he does that. But he's winding you lot up so thats ok

    I don't get the mentality of people who dislike people calling the PM Liar because he is a liar, yet recognise that he is lying to them.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 58,366
    alex_ said:

    Perhaps the approach to schools in summer has been woefully misguided. Suppose rather than having operated a policy for the last 3 months of mass testing and mass isolation they had done neither...

    Huge numbers might have had it, there would have been little disruption to schooling, and the debate about vaccination might have been largely academic...

    3 months ago vaccinations weren't complete in the rest of society though. So as the virus swept through kids more, it would have been passed on to vulnerable adults who aren't fully jabbed more.

    That's not the case anymore. Now it is academic and the solution to the pingdemic is to stop pinging people and by the time kids return in September its going to be a case of do not disrupt schools.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 3,638
    There was a discussion a few days ago about how many hospitals the NHS in England should have to accommodate the covid patients (and then a "x patients per hospital" calculation)

    UK-wide, it was shown that there were 1200+ NHS hospitals, which made the numbers look small. However, over 500 of those were cottage hospitals (usually without critical care facilities and certainly should not be used for covid patients outside of utter crisis), 55 were psychiatric hospitals, and an unknown proportion of the several hundred private hospitals turned out to be under the NHS umbrella as well.

    Add to that the issue that the acute care hospitals tend to be considerably larger than the cottage hospitals, so a proportionate decrease would be inaccurate on the over-pessimistic side.

    I did find a number of hospital beds in England: 134,000.

    Of these, the proportion not available (cottage hospital, psychiatric, private, etc) is unknown but it gave me a prior to use when I cam across a quote from an NHS bod last night that 84,000 acute hospital beds in England was the maximum (ie: that looked pretty much right).

    So that gives context.

    In the first peak, in England, we peaked at just under 19,000 beds. A touch under one in four acute beds occupied by covid patients, and this hugely stressed the health service (given that operates at high loading normally, then that's understandable). Especially as they weren't evenly distributed (some regions were far higher loaded than others)

    In the second peak, in England, we peaked at just over 34,000 beds. That was 40% of ALL acute beds in England, and that's really bad. Given that the case fatality rate increased during that peak, arguably, the health service was clearly past the point of being overwhelmed (thinking of the uneven distribution, some regions must have run well into majority covid levels)

    As of the 16th of July, we were at 3,367. That's just over 4%. We know that it's unevenly distributed again, and we know that we cannot sustain anywhere near the earlier levels, but on the flip side, it's currently only 4%.
    We also know that whilst epidemics deal in doublings, there will only be a certain number of doublings before we reach saturation of the virus (running out of hosts).

    The question is how many doublings we do have left. One, and we're fine. Two and we're starting to feel a bit ropey. Three and we're in trouble.

    But I do think that the 84,000 number is the important one. And what fraction of that number we are at and that we could theoretically reach before we go tilt.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 14,593

    We have ended up with a polity where people support a Prime Minister who lies to their face because he thinks they are stupid - despite knowing that he is lying to them because he thinks they are stupid.

    I asked felix about this yesterday.

    He thinks it's funny.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 58,366
    Scott_xP said:

    Today we are free from Covid in the same way Brexit gave us Sovereignty...

    So its going great but you'll be scrapping Twitter for years for quotes of the usual suspects whinging?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 14,593
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 49,939
    On Good Morning Scotland today speaking about the reckless endangerment of public by our government. Policies heaped in exceptionalism, ideology, false narratives, and pseudoscience. Herd immunity through infection rather than vaccination

    https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1417017393004650496?s=20

    The Scottish Government? That would be a first!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 25,169

    There was a discussion a few days ago about how many hospitals the NHS in England should have to accommodate the covid patients (and then a "x patients per hospital" calculation)

    UK-wide, it was shown that there were 1200+ NHS hospitals, which made the numbers look small. However, over 500 of those were cottage hospitals (usually without critical care facilities and certainly should not be used for covid patients outside of utter crisis), 55 were psychiatric hospitals, and an unknown proportion of the several hundred private hospitals turned out to be under the NHS umbrella as well.

    Add to that the issue that the acute care hospitals tend to be considerably larger than the cottage hospitals, so a proportionate decrease would be inaccurate on the over-pessimistic side.

    I did find a number of hospital beds in England: 134,000.

    Of these, the proportion not available (cottage hospital, psychiatric, private, etc) is unknown but it gave me a prior to use when I cam across a quote from an NHS bod last night that 84,000 acute hospital beds in England was the maximum (ie: that looked pretty much right).

    So that gives context.

    In the first peak, in England, we peaked at just under 19,000 beds. A touch under one in four acute beds occupied by covid patients, and this hugely stressed the health service (given that operates at high loading normally, then that's understandable). Especially as they weren't evenly distributed (some regions were far higher loaded than others)

    In the second peak, in England, we peaked at just over 34,000 beds. That was 40% of ALL acute beds in England, and that's really bad. Given that the case fatality rate increased during that peak, arguably, the health service was clearly past the point of being overwhelmed (thinking of the uneven distribution, some regions must have run well into majority covid levels)

    As of the 16th of July, we were at 3,367. That's just over 4%. We know that it's unevenly distributed again, and we know that we cannot sustain anywhere near the earlier levels, but on the flip side, it's currently only 4%.
    We also know that whilst epidemics deal in doublings, there will only be a certain number of doublings before we reach saturation of the virus (running out of hosts).

    The question is how many doublings we do have left. One, and we're fine. Two and we're starting to feel a bit ropey. Three and we're in trouble.

    But I do think that the 84,000 number is the important one. And what fraction of that number we are at and that we could theoretically reach before we go tilt.

    That sounds a little bit low. A lot depends on how you label Acute beds. My Trust lists 1850 excluding maternity, and had 499 covid patients at the Feb peak Inc 83 on ICU. That pretty much stopped elective activity as surgical and theatre staff were redeployed.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 49,939
    Published in mid-July in The Lancet, a Hong Kong study found that people inoculated with the mRNA Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine had 10 times the amount of antibodies compared to those who received the Sinovac vaccine

    https://twitter.com/maxwalden_/status/1417018754609803265?s=20
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,700

    Apropos of the BBC, why, I wonder, are they making such a big thing of the new game, the Hundred, which appears to be a) based on cricket and b) solely for TV?

    ???
    Because they are broadcasting it....???
    Leaving aside all the other numerous flaws and nonsensical marketing puff claims about how “exciting” The Hundred is going to be, I think one of its major flaws is contained within one of its core features. Ie. The need to fit within a predetermined time frame.

    Predetermined time frames, not just for games overall, but segments within games, and therefore with limited opportunity for teams to take time to think at key points of games will result in formulaic predetermined strategies with little scope for variation and innovative thinking during the course of games.

    They tried this sort of thing originally with 2020 when it was originally seen as just a bit of fun not to be taken seriously. Now the game has moved on (and I accept that part of this is due to the desire to maximise advertising opportunities), it is not unusual for games to take an hour longer than they did originally. Captains need time to think, to debate, to tweak fields - basically to change tactics and strategies as games progress.And that in itself generates excitement and interest from spectators.

    The Hundred has actually built in loads of spurious complexity, but not given the teams the time to work out how to respond to it.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 49,939
    Discourse about today’s lifting has generally all been about masks

    Probably because it’s a “seen” thing, but to me it seems to be missing the point.

    We’ve had 6 weeks of exponential growth with masks mandates, so I think it’s optimistic to think keep them will stop that growth


    https://twitter.com/ThatRyanChap/status/1417019185876586498?s=20
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 66,703

    “Churchillian undertones”

    This man is a total fraud. Churchill wouldn’t have tolerated a buffoon like him for five minutes.

    That Johnson persistently attempts to associate himself with Churchill is a strong indication that the man is not quite right in the head. There’s a screw loose in there. It will not end well.

    Crafty though. He does it brazenly such that even being dismissed it means his name is included in a sentence alongside that of Churchill, meaning people will think of the two together.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 54,426

    Discourse about today’s lifting has generally all been about masks

    Probably because it’s a “seen” thing, but to me it seems to be missing the point.

    We’ve had 6 weeks of exponential growth with masks mandates, so I think it’s optimistic to think keep them will stop that growth


    https://twitter.com/ThatRyanChap/status/1417019185876586498?s=20

    The question is how much will dropping the requirement increase growth. I don’t think anyone is claiming masks alone will stop it.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 5,364

    Good morning one and all. O/t, bas something gone wrong with the BBC site, does anyone know. Seems to be flickering. Tried both on my Mac and on my iPhone!

    Fortunately the Guardian is OK, so I can get the mornings news!

    Looks OK to me. Try clearing your browser cache.
    Seems OK now; odd that it was on two devices, though. Although of course, the same wi-fi.
    I fear you have made a serious error if you think you can get "The News" from the Guardian. It's a spiteful left wing rag in the same way the Mail is a spiteful right wing rag. If you want news... Read The Times and ignore all the other news channels, particularly the BBC who has lost its reputation for truth and accuracy.
    Like you are going to get anything approximating the truth from a rag that has Murdoch's grubby fingerprints all over it.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    tlg86 said:

    Children must be a fair way to herd immunity all by themselves. Whether we vaccinate them is probably neither here nor there.

    Don't think that stacks up with the data. It's proven that under 25's are now the major source of spreading the virus.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 1,960

    Discourse about today’s lifting has generally all been about masks

    Probably because it’s a “seen” thing, but to me it seems to be missing the point.

    We’ve had 6 weeks of exponential growth with masks mandates, so I think it’s optimistic to think keep them will stop that growth


    https://twitter.com/ThatRyanChap/status/1417019185876586498?s=20

    People are finally realising!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 54,426

    tlg86 said:

    Children must be a fair way to herd immunity all by themselves. Whether we vaccinate them is probably neither here nor there.

    Don't think that stacks up with the data. It's proven that under 25's are now the major source of spreading the virus.
    That’s quite a large age group, quite a large fraction of which are eligible.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 3,936

    IanB2 said:

    That we are not having to bear some ludicrous speech from that twat in Downing Street is the only consolation from today’s fiasco.

    A typical ludicrous comment with the preempt of the attack on Boris before anything else...
    I take it that you are a big supporter of his claim that at no time yesterday did he go onto the dodge lockdown trial?
    No he obviously lied.. that's fair enough.. what I don't like is the preamble....
    So you recognise that he is a liar. That he thinks you are stupid enough to believe what he says. And yet attack people who point out that he is a lying twat.

    You like being lied to? Because he's on your side...
    You are deliberately missing the point. It's the comments that start with eg the lying fat fornicating fucker... that I saw yesterday.. it adds nothing to the conversation and its just venting of the spleen . I understand people don't like Boris. I don't like him either so don't tell me I am a fan because I am not.

    Your frustration is borne out of the fact that the Tories have a massive majority and that the opposition is useless and toothless. With people like Angela Rayner in the top echelon, and Labour fighting itself for the soul of the party , the future isn't bright. . Nor is it orange...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 14,593
    Vaccines min @nadhimzahawi on isolation u-turn: “The PM y’day talked about considering it and then very quickly realised the right thing to do is to self-isolate, as it sends a very powerful message to everybody."

    Without hint of irony, adds: “Nobody’s taking anybody for fools”.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1417021937428140033
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 58,366

    Discourse about today’s lifting has generally all been about masks

    Probably because it’s a “seen” thing, but to me it seems to be missing the point.

    We’ve had 6 weeks of exponential growth with masks mandates, so I think it’s optimistic to think keep them will stop that growth


    https://twitter.com/ThatRyanChap/status/1417019185876586498?s=20

    People are finally realising!
    Masks made sense when we didn't have anything better, like vaccines or available FFP3 masks etc.

    They make absolutely no sense whatsoever now.

    I will not be wearing mine in shops anymore and am very glad that its gone.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 49,939
    They couldn't even be bothered to get a picture on the Tube - looks like the NY Subway to me:



    https://twitter.com/beisgovuk/status/1417016791579176966?s=20
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 3,936

    IanB2 said:

    That we are not having to bear some ludicrous speech from that twat in Downing Street is the only consolation from today’s fiasco.

    A typical ludicrous comment with the preempt of the attack on Boris before anything else...
    I take it that you are a big supporter of his claim that at no time yesterday did he go onto the dodge lockdown trial?
    No he obviously lied.. that's fair enough.. what I don't like is the preamble....
    With apologies for quoting the same comment twice.

    This here is why the government are still comfortably ahead in the polls. "Stop attacking Boris" says the commentator in response to Boris lying. So you check if the commentator thinks Boris is telling the truth. "no, he obviously lied".

    But you still support him. We have ended up with a polity where people support a Prime Minister who lies to their face because he thinks they are stupid - despite knowing that he is lying to them because he thinks they are stupid.

    Eugh, you lot attack Boris before anything else! You are so biased!
    Erm, we're pointing out that he is lying and treating people like fools.
    Yeah he does that. But he's winding you lot up so thats ok

    I don't get the mentality of people who dislike people calling the PM Liar because he is a liar, yet recognise that he is lying to them.
    You don't get it period. Noone got anywhere by attacking Blair and he was a consumate liar.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 29,568
    edited July 19

    On Sunday, experts warned that it may be difficult to reach herd immunity in Britain if children are not vaccinated. Nearly one in five people in the UK are under 16 and, despite everyone being offered a vaccine, around 12 per cent of adults have not had a first jab.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/18/children-could-yet-get-covid-vaccines-experts-warn-threat-herd/

    Our failure to vaccinate under 18's will sink us

    There have been conflicting reports about vaccinating schoolchildren. According to Robert Jenrick, JCVI will make its recommendations this week. The Telegraph reported JCVI will not advise vaccinating schoolchildren. (Fwiw, imo it might be easier to wait till they return to school in September.)
    Though it's totally out of character for The Sunday Telegraph, or any other paper, to reveal something they would like to be true as hard fact. Especially if they hope that their revelation will make the fact, so to speak.

    (The bigger question might be the one about- if we do want to vaccinate teens, how and when do we get the 10 million or so doses of mRNA vaccine needed?)
    Again, we've got 60m doses of Pfizer which has commenced deliveries. You seem to be stuck with this impression that we didn't make a second order, but we did.

    It's also becoming clear that the 50+ booster programme is going to be predominantly AZ.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 1,879

    BigRich said:

    What advantages have we actually gained? Are we any more free or open than elsewhere in Europe? It doesn't seem like it

    Yes we are. We're the most open nation in Europe.
    Citation
    How about all the people crying havoc about Boris removing all legal restrictions, something no other nation in Europe has done?
    rcs1000 said:

    What advantages have we actually gained? Are we any more free or open than elsewhere in Europe? It doesn't seem like it

    Yes we are. We're the most open nation in Europe.
    I don't think that's true - I think Denmark is more open than the UK.
    Debateable as it stands, but 100% definitely not the case as of midnight.

    In Denmark you can't enter a gym, or attend any organised indoor sport events without a Corona Passport. In the UK you've been able to attend a gym without a Covid passport.

    In Denmark you need a Corona Passport to enter restraurants, cafes and bars. You don't in the UK. In Denmark all restaraunts, cafes and bars much close no later than 2am.

    In Denmark for massages, haircuts and tattoos etc you must present a Covid Passport. You don't in the UK.

    In Denmark you can't enter a museum, amusement park, cinema, venues, zoos, stadiums or other sport venues without a corona passport. You can in the UK.

    In Denmark all discos and nightclubs are closed, they will be open tonight in the UK.

    In Denmark its illegal to have indoor events and activities of more than 250 people, all such restrictions are being abolished in the UK.

    In Denmark a face mask is legally required on public transport. Its not in the UK from tomorrow.

    https://en.coronasmitte.dk/rules-and-regulations
    from Midnight, we will have less restrictions that Sweden.

    https://www.visitstockholm.com/travel-info/coronavirus-covid-19-information-visitors

    Taking of which, Sweden now seems to be the only EU member not having a 3rd wave, (cases staying at 200-250 a day)

    Perhaps, that's just luck and it will start to rise next week, or maybe that's because lots of young people including under 18s had it asymptomatically in the earlier wayvs and therefor have a level of antibody/T Cell immunity, which in conjunction with the Vaccines in the Old and middle-aged.

    Anybody else with 17 months hindsight wish we had taken the Swedish approach?
    In order to understand “the Swedish approach” you have to understand a bit about Swedish culture. England could never have adopted the Swedish approach, because England (and most of RoW) lacks lots of unusual characteristics of Swedish society.

    The first and most important thing that you must learn about Sweden is the heavy bias towards the young. Swedes have a disregard for the upper middle aged and elderly that most other cultures would find utterly shocking. The elderly are *not* regarded as a reservoir of wisdom, automatically deserving respect, even veneration, as in most world cultures. It is not that Swedes dislike older people, it is just that we don’t see them as a group deserving special status. This underlies *everything* about Swedish society, and is probably the reason most foreigners find it difficult to get a grasp on us. They realise we are different, perhaps even odd, but they can’t quite put their finger on it.

    Allied to this phenomenon, children and young adults are very highly valued and resources are heavily invested in their welfare and wellbeing.

    Further, “the family”, while important, is not the be all and end all of societal structure. And levels of faith are very low by international standards (Scotland and Sweden were the first two countries to consistently measure atheists/agnostics to be in a majority).

    Then we have other odd Swedish characteristics, like a strong distrust of melodrama, suspicion of eccentrics and contrarians, a near-unanimous trust in teamwork as a problem solving technique, and remarkable gender equality (feminism is not a characteristic of the left in Sweden; women, and most men, throughout all social groups and all income levels are fundamentalist feminists in a way astonishing to most other cultures). Huge trust in technology, very low population density, small households in low density housing, many single households, very high minimum housing standards, low levels of corruption, a willingness to pay high taxes, high trust in politicians and public bodies, a sane media, etc etc etc

    Combine this with an extraordinarily decentralised civil service and political structure, and you might begin to understand our Covid19 response.

    We didn’t panic. We acted as a team. We protected the long-term interests of our children and young adults.

    It’s not rocket science.

    For people interested in the topic, I can recommend this article, which includes a fascinating diagram of world cultures: look how Sweden is way up to the top right (very low resolution and hard to read: better resolution images are available):

    ‘Sweden, the extreme country’

    https://www.iffs.se/en/news/sweden-the-extreme-country/
    That's an interesting map.

    Interesting to note that GB is on that map considered closest to . . . Australia and New Zealand. Funny that!
    Hate to beak it to you Philip, but that's not actually a map. We're still anchored just off the coast of France :tongue:
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