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The slavish devotion of Republicans to one person is damaging to the country – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,158
edited July 2021 in General
The slavish devotion of Republicans to one person is damaging to the country – politicalbetting.com

Republican Voters Largely Want to Move On From Jan. 6. The Rest of the Country Doesn’t https://t.co/e4QUrmyxNU via @eyokley pic.twitter.com/pGMOaScMIL

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,464
    First, like Kamala in 2024.....
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,112
    2nd.
  • Whereas in recent weeks Mike Smithson has made some of the greatest political betting tips I've ever seen, this ranks as the worst.

    Trump will not win the Presidency next time and I doubt he will win the GOP nomination. When that glittering White House prize looms once more on the horizon the knives will come out for Trump. The Republicans are only staving off the inevitable blood bath. The longer they leave that task, the more certain it is that the Dems will win in 2024.
  • Back home, Boris Johnson has hitherto been a lucky general. He may be about to ride the same luck with England at the Euros.

    England looked pretty good last night but they've still not played a decent side. That might not happen until the final. If it's England v Italy then on neutral territory you'd back the Italians. On home turf? Well, they may do it. Johnson will saunter in and make it look like another triumph for St George.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,569
    Happy 4th July, Americans!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615
    FTPT:

    As someone not interested in football, or tennis, it should be said that broadcast TV atm is rather pants. Especially the BBC. Both BBC 1 and 2 bleeping well broadcasting Wimbledon for most of the day (except today, obv). It's enough to make me skip the licence fee ... ;)

    Thank goodness for YouTube and DVDs.

    But well done to England. I know the team's success matters a lot to people, and it's good to see so many of my countrymen (exc. many Welsh and Scottish) happy.

    As an aside, my son is in the situation where he doesn't watch footie, but 'knows' it is something he should be interested in. Before the championship he asked if he could watch the matches.
    "Who are you supporting?" I asked.
    "Well, England," he said.
    "Ah, good."
    "And Turkey, because mum is Turkish. And Holland, because my teacher's from there. And Scotland, because you love it. And Wales, because a friend's Welsh."

    Since then, he hasn't asked to watch a single match ...

    It was the 2002 World Cup that got Fox Jr, then 7 years old into Football. I wasn't particularly bothered, but promised to take him to a proper match, and got cheap tickets for Leicester vs Gillingham. We both got hooked, and have been season ticket holders since. It is a great bit of father son bonding.

    And if you don't like sport, Olympics coming soon too, though broadcast hours awkward here.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    edited July 2021
    I watched the first 30 mins of the footy with my teenage son who then went off to watch something else and I also switched over.

    Tell it not in Gath but I find England's style of play dull to watch.

    Emma Raducanu on the other hand was fantastic yesterday. A thrilling game, but then I guess you need to like tennis.

    I had the chance last night of a pair of Centre or No.1 court tickets for Monday at £140 a piece but I turned them down. Possibly mad of me but I enjoyed my time there last week at £30 a piece and that will do me.

    There's also the small matter of the England v India test series coming up, which should be fantastic.

    To be honest, anything that knocks covid off the front pages is okay if it doesn't involve tragedy. Yesterday was the first time in over a year that Sky News had nothing about covid on their front. Bravo for that I say. The thing is no longer a mass killer, thanks to the vaccines, and it needs to be dealt with as such.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    1st dose: 85.7%
    2nd dose: 63.4%

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    edited July 2021
    Also slightly regretting not seeing through my hunch of a week ago to bet on Kane to win the Golden Boot ... It was always only a matter of time with him. He's stellar.
  • Anyway, I popped back on here to say that our vaccination rate is a bit dismal at the moment. We are in danger of taking our eye off the ball.

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,569

    Anyway, I popped back on here to say that our vaccination rate is a bit dismal at the moment. We are in danger of taking our eye off the ball.

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

    Take up among the young seems to be lower than in the other groups. They’ll change their minds, when the rules change on quarantine after travel abroad.

    Vaccinated = test and release.
    Not vaccinated = 10 days’ quarantine.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,112
    Foxy said:

    Looking at the Labour announcement on their website*, there doesn't seem to be much to it. I suppose things like this are the normal work of an Opposition - make an announcement where you promise to do something good, which involves criticising the government for not managing to make it happen, or for actively making the situation worse. Make lots of these announcements to gain attention - so necessarily there can't be too much concrete in each one.

    The one thing that is in it is:
    "Passing a law requiring public bodies to report on how much they are buying from British businesses including SMEs."

    I guess an issue here is how complicated this could get, bearing in mind how complicated in can be for rules of origin in trade deals.

    * https://labour.org.uk/press/labour-will-make-buy-and-sell-more-in-britain/

    What counts as a British business? e.g. Is Morrisons still a British business when it is taken over by the American private equity company? Their HQ will be in the UK, is that enough? Or, as in the case of Morrisons, they also own a lot of UK based food production facilities.
    AstraZeneca too - are they too Swedish to count as British?

    If I provide consultancy services do I count as 100% British, or because I work on a laptop manufactured abroad, running software developed abroad, does that mean I have non-British inputs, so I can only claim to be 80% British? That's the same as for, say, a British loo roll company important wood pulp, say.
    Rachel Reeves: Labour will be on the side of British businesses

    "Sets out proposals to insert clauses into government contracts that would "help give more public contracts to British businesses", and to require public bodies to report how much they are buying from UK firms; "

    New Labour gave loads of contracts to the UK firm Capita.....I guess she doesn't quite mean that though?

    "Pledges government support for businesses seeking to set up factories in the UK in order to "reshore" or "near-shore" production "so that their supply chains are less complicated and shorter" "

    Sounds a bit Trumpian....Red meat for the red wall...but not really realistic in the 21st Century globalized economy, unless they are going to have a trade war with China?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/07/03/rachel-reeves-labour-will-side-british-businesses/
    I think it an astute policy. Brexit could be Free Trade or it could be protectionism. That is potentially clear red water that is popular in Labour target seats. I am not so convinced about "Free Trade" as many. It worked for us in the 19th century, at a time when we were economically and militarily dominant in the world. That isn't the 21st Century position though.

    1 - I don't think it was "Free Trade" in Victorian times. Wasn't it "Empire Free Trade", which was code for protecting markets such as India for ourselves?

    Perhaps @david_herdson can enlighten us?

    2 - That Reeves policy may well fall foul of the UK-EU FTA, unless it is more subtle. Get Lord Mandelbrot on it.

    France and Spain have already formally complained to teacher, when we haven't actually done anything other than ask a question.

    https://www.fr24news.com/a/2021/06/brexit-live-spain-france-file-formal-complaint-over-british-products-eu-rules-broken-politics.html
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,112
    i'm not very keen on the mood music from Sajid.

    We want to be very unlocked, but the "most unlocked in the world' stuff will not be helpful. Talk quietly ffs.
  • Sajid Javid's arrival seems to have coincided with a policy shift. It makes me think that Matt Hancock and his coterie of white coats held huge sway over Gov't policy. Javid and Sunak appear now to have shifted the weight towards 'learning to live with it' which is, frankly, brilliant news. The link between cases and deaths has been broken by the vaccines and we need to roll up our sleeves and get on with life. Banish fear. Live.

    It does also show how incredibly weak Boris Johnson is. He gets pushed and pulled around, almost certainly in large part because he's lazy and doesn't have a grasp of the facts. I don't think he's as bright as he seems to think he is.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,350
    edited July 2021
    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    Looking at the Labour announcement on their website*, there doesn't seem to be much to it. I suppose things like this are the normal work of an Opposition - make an announcement where you promise to do something good, which involves criticising the government for not managing to make it happen, or for actively making the situation worse. Make lots of these announcements to gain attention - so necessarily there can't be too much concrete in each one.

    The one thing that is in it is:
    "Passing a law requiring public bodies to report on how much they are buying from British businesses including SMEs."

    I guess an issue here is how complicated this could get, bearing in mind how complicated in can be for rules of origin in trade deals.

    * https://labour.org.uk/press/labour-will-make-buy-and-sell-more-in-britain/

    What counts as a British business? e.g. Is Morrisons still a British business when it is taken over by the American private equity company? Their HQ will be in the UK, is that enough? Or, as in the case of Morrisons, they also own a lot of UK based food production facilities.
    AstraZeneca too - are they too Swedish to count as British?

    If I provide consultancy services do I count as 100% British, or because I work on a laptop manufactured abroad, running software developed abroad, does that mean I have non-British inputs, so I can only claim to be 80% British? That's the same as for, say, a British loo roll company important wood pulp, say.
    Rachel Reeves: Labour will be on the side of British businesses

    "Sets out proposals to insert clauses into government contracts that would "help give more public contracts to British businesses", and to require public bodies to report how much they are buying from UK firms; "

    New Labour gave loads of contracts to the UK firm Capita.....I guess she doesn't quite mean that though?

    "Pledges government support for businesses seeking to set up factories in the UK in order to "reshore" or "near-shore" production "so that their supply chains are less complicated and shorter" "

    Sounds a bit Trumpian....Red meat for the red wall...but not really realistic in the 21st Century globalized economy, unless they are going to have a trade war with China?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/07/03/rachel-reeves-labour-will-side-british-businesses/
    I think it an astute policy. Brexit could be Free Trade or it could be protectionism. That is potentially clear red water that is popular in Labour target seats. I am not so convinced about "Free Trade" as many. It worked for us in the 19th century, at a time when we were economically and militarily dominant in the world. That isn't the 21st Century position though.

    1 - I don't think it was "Free Trade" in Victorian times. Wasn't it "Empire Free Trade", which was code for protecting markets such as India for ourselves?

    Perhaps @david_herdson can enlighten us?

    2 - That Reeves policy may well fall foul of the UK-EU FTA, unless it is more subtle. Get Lord Mandelbrot on it.

    France and Spain have already formally complained to teacher, when we haven't actually done anything other than ask a question.

    https://www.fr24news.com/a/2021/06/brexit-live-spain-france-file-formal-complaint-over-british-products-eu-rules-broken-politics.html
    Free Trade was official British policy from 1846 to 1932. That is, tariffs on imports would be levied as a short term measure for income only, not to protect industry or agriculture.

    Empire Free Trade was a campaign by Beaverbrook from 1930-31 to abandon it in favour of tariffs, remitted for the ‘white empire’ e.g. his native Canada. (This plan had originally been proposed by Joseph Chamberlain and his Tariff Reform League from 1903). It also had a lot to do with his attempts to overthrow Baldwin, and nearly succeeded.

    More confusingly, from 1880 to 1895 the ‘Fair Trade League’ based in Sheffield had argued for protective tariffs to prevent the dumping of cheap, often government backed, foreign imports that were crippling Sheffield’s industries.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,569

    Sajid Javid's arrival seems to have coincided with a policy shift. It makes me think that Matt Hancock and his coterie of white coats held huge sway over Gov't policy. Javid and Sunak appear now to have shifted the weight towards 'learning to live with it' which is, frankly, brilliant news. The link between cases and deaths has been broken by the vaccines and we need to roll up our sleeves and get on with life. Banish fear. Live.

    It does also show how incredibly weak Boris Johnson is. He gets pushed and pulled around, almost certainly in large part because he's lazy and doesn't have a grasp of the facts. I don't think he's as bright as he seems to think he is.

    It shows the power of “groupthink” within an organisation, where during the course of the pandemic everyone in government has been thinking pretty much the same way, led by the scientists.

    It’s taken an outsider to come in, see that we no longer need to “protect the NHS” because the vaccines are working, which means the pandemic is over and the restrictions can be lifted.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,297
    edited July 2021
    The end of Free Trade was retrograde; an attempt to protect uncompetitive industries from the broader world market.

    No surprises the backwards of Birmingham were behind it, as opposed to the modernists of Manchester.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,775
    Good morning, everyone.

    Fantastic result yesterday, and I think the whole country can get behind Norris' astoundingly good qualifying performance.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,846
    Foxy said:

    FTPT:

    As someone not interested in football, or tennis, it should be said that broadcast TV atm is rather pants. Especially the BBC. Both BBC 1 and 2 bleeping well broadcasting Wimbledon for most of the day (except today, obv). It's enough to make me skip the licence fee ... ;)

    Thank goodness for YouTube and DVDs.

    But well done to England. I know the team's success matters a lot to people, and it's good to see so many of my countrymen (exc. many Welsh and Scottish) happy.

    As an aside, my son is in the situation where he doesn't watch footie, but 'knows' it is something he should be interested in. Before the championship he asked if he could watch the matches.
    "Who are you supporting?" I asked.
    "Well, England," he said.
    "Ah, good."
    "And Turkey, because mum is Turkish. And Holland, because my teacher's from there. And Scotland, because you love it. And Wales, because a friend's Welsh."

    Since then, he hasn't asked to watch a single match ...

    It was the 2002 World Cup that got Fox Jr, then 7 years old into Football. I wasn't particularly bothered, but promised to take him to a proper match, and got cheap tickets for Leicester vs Gillingham. We both got hooked, and have been season ticket holders since. It is a great bit of father son bonding.

    And if you don't like sport, Olympics coming soon too, though broadcast hours awkward here.
    Now England is in the semi-final, increased peer pressure at school may influence hitherto uninterested boys. In any case, it might be part of parental duty to watch it alongside even quite young children simply so they can say in later years that they saw England win Euro 2020. Obviously, if England lose, then watching the match will be unimportant.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,350

    The end of Free Trade was retrograde; an attempt to protect uncompetitive industries from the broader world market.

    No surprises the backwards of Birmingham were behind it, as opposed to the modernists of Manchester.

    Except the very end of Free Trade, as opposed to the limited Commonwealth Preference Scheme of Chamberlain, was under Attlee in 1946 when very substantial protective tariffs were brought in to support industry.

    With the fervent backing of *checks notes* Liverpool and Manchester.

    Tribalism had as much to do with this as principle.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,569

    Good morning, everyone.

    Fantastic result yesterday, and I think the whole country can get behind Norris' astoundingly good qualifying performance.

    The stewards had a busy afternoon too. After a lot of deliberations, including summonses for Sainz and Bottas, a three place penalty for Vettel means he starts 11th, and George Russell starts 8th in the Williams.

    https://www.fia.com/sites/default/files/decision-document/2021 Austrian Grand Prix - Provisional Starting Grid.pdf
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,775
    Mr. Sandpit, yeah, saw that. I think it's slightly rough that Vettel gets a penalty but the drivers who jumped him on the outlap then slowed down in the place they specifically weren't meant to get no penalty.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,883
    OT. Anyone know a SIMPLE devise to clean up a Mac?

    Much appreciated
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,775
    Betting Post

    F1: possibly the race this year when I've had least idea what to back. Went for the victory margin exceeding 11s at 2.2 based on what happened last time.

    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2021/07/austria-pre-race-2021.html
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,414
    Good morning everybody.

    I'd endorse Dr Foxy's comments about football and father-son bonding. Younger Son wanted to go and watch Southend (yes, really!) when he was about 9, but we lived 10 miles away. So I took him and that ended up with a couple of season tickets for two or three years until he got to secondary school and could go on his own.
    Now, when he's around or we're with him, we still go to matches, although no longer Southend.
    Never had quite the same 'both do' with Elder Son.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,883

    Roger said:

    OT. Anyone know a SIMPLE devise to clean up a Mac?

    Much appreciated

    Soap and water. You been flashing again?
    I guess from your reply that you're as useless with these things as I am.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,569
    Roger said:

    OT. Anyone know a SIMPLE devise to clean up a Mac?

    Much appreciated

    Here’s some advise, using built-in tools
    https://www.cnet.com/how-to/slow-macbook-air-or-pro-heres-how-to-speed-up-your-mac-5-ways/

    If you want to use a third-party cleanup tool, CCleaner is okay.

    Whatever you do, don’t touch a piece of software called MacKeeper. It’s very heavily advertised, but malware that serves adverts.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,569

    Betting Post

    F1: possibly the race this year when I've had least idea what to back. Went for the victory margin exceeding 11s at 2.2 based on what happened last time.

    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2021/07/austria-pre-race-2021.html

    Interesting bet. Unless the Mercedes cars can clear Norris and Perez quickly, I can see Verstappen running in into the distance here. It will be a two stop race though, as they’re using the softer tyres, so should be less boring than last week.

    Maybe a small hedge of betting on a safety car?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,775
    Mr. Sandpit, odds don't align, alas, as it's 1.6 or so for a safety car.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,846
    edited July 2021
    Euro 2020 Betfair prices and their implied probabilities:-
    1  England  2.66  37.6%
    2 Italy 3.4 29.4%
    3 Spain 4 25.0%
    4 Denmark 11.5 8.7%
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,569

    Mr. Sandpit, odds don't align, alas, as it's 1.6 or so for a safety car.

    That price makes no sense - unless the weather forecast has changed.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,414

    Euro 2020 Betfair prices and their implied probabilities:-


    1 England 2.66 37.6%
    2 Italy 3.4 29.4%
    3 Spain 4 25.0%
    4 Denmark 11.5 8.7%
    Betting with the heart or the head?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,542
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    OT. Anyone know a SIMPLE devise to clean up a Mac?

    Much appreciated

    Soap and water. You been flashing again?
    I guess from your reply that you're as useless with these things as I am.
    I tried the Mac. Didn't get on with it....
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,883
    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    OT. Anyone know a SIMPLE devise to clean up a Mac?

    Much appreciated

    Here’s some advise, using built-in tools
    https://www.cnet.com/how-to/slow-macbook-air-or-pro-heres-how-to-speed-up-your-mac-5-ways/

    If you want to use a third-party cleanup tool, CCleaner is okay.

    Whatever you do, don’t touch a piece of software called MacKeeper. It’s very heavily advertised, but malware that serves adverts.
    Many thanks! Particularly for the Mackeeper advice which seemed like the simplest solution.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,414
    Roger said:

    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    OT. Anyone know a SIMPLE devise to clean up a Mac?

    Much appreciated

    Here’s some advise, using built-in tools
    https://www.cnet.com/how-to/slow-macbook-air-or-pro-heres-how-to-speed-up-your-mac-5-ways/

    If you want to use a third-party cleanup tool, CCleaner is okay.

    Whatever you do, don’t touch a piece of software called MacKeeper. It’s very heavily advertised, but malware that serves adverts.
    Many thanks! Particularly for the Mackeeper advice which seemed like the simplest solution.
    Thanks from me, too. Agree about Mackeeper.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,775
    Mr. Sandpit, many safety cars this year may be distorting the price.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Sandpit said:

    Happy 4th July, Americans!

    Contrary of them, since tomorrow will be July 5th
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,846

    Euro 2020 Betfair prices and their implied probabilities:-


    1 England 2.66 37.6%
    2 Italy 3.4 29.4%
    3 Spain 4 25.0%
    4 Denmark 11.5 8.7%
    Betting with the heart or the head?
    Both. The prices are probably correct, or at least broadly consistent with the semi-final match odds. I'm not convinced that "patriotic punters" set the price as much as they used to in pre-Betfair days. At the start of the tournament, England were 6/1 joint second-favourites with Italy (France were favourites) and Denmark were 20/1.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,173

    Good morning, everyone.

    Fantastic result yesterday, and I think the whole country can get behind Norris' astoundingly good qualifying performance.

    Had a dinner last night with someone made redundant by McLaren last year. He wishes them all the worst luck in the world.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,775
    Mr. 86, yikes.

    The team's undoubtedly made a great performance comeback, though.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001

    Euro 2020 Betfair prices and their implied probabilities:-

    1  England  2.66  37.6%
    2 Italy 3.4 29.4%
    3 Spain 4 25.0%
    4 Denmark 11.5 8.7%
    There’s a 100.7% chance that one of these four will win?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,846

    Euro 2020 Betfair prices and their implied probabilities:-

    1  England  2.66  37.6%
    2 Italy 3.4 29.4%
    3 Spain 4 25.0%
    4 Denmark 11.5 8.7%
    There’s a 100.7% chance that one of these four will win?
    Yes, there is a small overround because I'm showing the probability implied by the team prices, not a calculated probability based on semi-final prices or some sort of performance ratings, and not normalised to 100 per cent. The reason for showing the implied probability at all is that one PBer said it was easier to understand that way.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,569
    edited July 2021
    tlg86 said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Fantastic result yesterday, and I think the whole country can get behind Norris' astoundingly good qualifying performance.

    Had a dinner last night with someone made redundant by McLaren last year. He wishes them all the worst luck in the world.
    Many F1 teams have had to reduce their head count - because of a budget cap that’s been bought in this year, and because they only got half the usual prize money last year thanks to the pandemic. McLaren also lost a lot of the road car team during the pandemic, as people stopped buying mid-level sports cars too.

    I think Williams are hiring, they have new shareholders willing to invest.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652

    Good morning everybody.

    I'd endorse Dr Foxy's comments about football and father-son bonding. Younger Son wanted to go and watch Southend (yes, really!) when he was about 9, but we lived 10 miles away. So I took him and that ended up with a couple of season tickets for two or three years until he got to secondary school and could go on his own.
    Now, when he's around or we're with him, we still go to matches, although no longer Southend.
    Never had quite the same 'both do' with Elder Son.

    The worst thig my Dad ever did to me was make me a Spurs fan. It's been the biggest source of misery in my life. And now I have done it to my own kids and the first grandson.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,414
    On the football, why/how have England managed to have so many home games? And there were grumbles yesterday about 'not enough' England fans being able to get to Rome; how many Danes (other than VIP's) will be able to be at Wembley?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,024
    Sandpit said:

    Happy 4th July, Americans!

    Don't forget when celebrating this weekend:
    It's the 100th anniversary of this iconic party.
    https://twitter.com/ScottWesterfeld/status/1410979860701384707
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652

    Back home, Boris Johnson has hitherto been a lucky general. He may be about to ride the same luck with England at the Euros.

    England looked pretty good last night but they've still not played a decent side. That might not happen until the final. If it's England v Italy then on neutral territory you'd back the Italians. On home turf? Well, they may do it. Johnson will saunter in and make it look like another triumph for St George.

    I am not so sure. A few weeks ago, Johnson, Patel and various other Tory politicians were very happy to endorse the booing of England players because they thought it would play well in the country. They better hope that if the England team is victorious that is not brought up a fair bit - and is not mentioned at any Downing Street reception.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,414

    Good morning everybody.

    I'd endorse Dr Foxy's comments about football and father-son bonding. Younger Son wanted to go and watch Southend (yes, really!) when he was about 9, but we lived 10 miles away. So I took him and that ended up with a couple of season tickets for two or three years until he got to secondary school and could go on his own.
    Now, when he's around or we're with him, we still go to matches, although no longer Southend.
    Never had quite the same 'both do' with Elder Son.

    The worst thig my Dad ever did to me was make me a Spurs fan. It's been the biggest source of misery in my life. And now I have done it to my own kids and the first grandson.

    A few years after our Southend trips Younger Son went to work in the City and started to support Chelsea. That was 40 years ago and he still goes when he can, taking his daughters. He convinced his eldest British nephew to follow Chelsea, too.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,414

    Back home, Boris Johnson has hitherto been a lucky general. He may be about to ride the same luck with England at the Euros.

    England looked pretty good last night but they've still not played a decent side. That might not happen until the final. If it's England v Italy then on neutral territory you'd back the Italians. On home turf? Well, they may do it. Johnson will saunter in and make it look like another triumph for St George.

    I am not so sure. A few weeks ago, Johnson, Patel and various other Tory politicians were very happy to endorse the booing of England players because they thought it would play well in the country. They better hope that if the England team is victorious that is not brought up a fair bit - and is not mentioned at any Downing Street reception.
    There a few posts coming up on my Facebook page referring to the fact that half the squad are of immigrant stock. All positive; reminding readers that we need immigrants in all sorts of walks of life.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,309

    Euro 2020 Betfair prices and their implied probabilities:-

    1  England  2.66  37.6%
    2 Italy 3.4 29.4%
    3 Spain 4 25.0%
    4 Denmark 11.5 8.7%
    Wishful thinking , by deluded people who have obviously not been watching the football.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,399
    FPT - I tried to recommend Clarkson's Farm to a couple we were renting our self-catering place from last week in Devon. They'd moved down from Oxfordshire 5 years ago. She was an ex primary school teacher and he an ex estate agent.

    As soon as I got the word "Clarkson" out of my mouth she said 'oh' and looked uncomfortably at the ground, and he grunted and said he was a 'wanker'. That told me so much about them and their politics.

    His name is still a swear word amongst bien-pensant Guardianista circles, and they really struggle to get past it.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,309

    Euro 2020 Betfair prices and their implied probabilities:-


    1 England 2.66 37.6%
    2 Italy 3.4 29.4%
    3 Spain 4 25.0%
    4 Denmark 11.5 8.7%
    Betting with the heart or the head?
    Heart for sure, no way should England be anywhere near favourites, Spain and Italy look miles better teams and England will do well to beat Denmark, absolutely deluded.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,775
    King Cole, not a fan of that line of reasoning. Applying that rationale, one could look at foreign-born terrorists and prisoners and claim we need less immigration.

    The needs of the nation should dictate immigration policy, and people should accept those who come will be a mix of the excellent, the appalling, and, mostly, the ok.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,309

    FPT - I tried to recommend Clarkson's Farm to a couple we were renting our self-catering place from last week in Devon. They'd moved down from Oxfordshire 5 years ago. She was an ex primary school teacher and he an ex estate agent.

    As soon as I got the word "Clarkson" out of my mouth she said 'oh' and looked uncomfortably at the ground, and he grunted and said he was a 'wanker'. That told me so much about them and their politics.

    His name is still a swear word amongst bien-pensant Guardianista circles, and they really struggle to get past it.

    His a wanker though, only gammons like him.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,846
    On-topic re Trump for 2024 (Betfair: 3.8 for GOP nominee; 9.6 for President).

    First, note that the nominee/candidate price is bigger with bookmakers, though stakes might be limited. Ladbrokes has 3/1 with the possibility of a boost. Oddschecker has Hills offering 7/2. (To win outright, 7/1 is the general offer so Betfair is best.)

    2024 is a long way off, and the price is not so compelling that I want to spend time thinking about it, and checking videos of likely challengers (whose prices are long, if only we could identify which one). In terms of politics, 7/2 against Trump being GOP candidate may be a good bet, but that is without evaluating rivals, age (Trump is 75; Biden 78) or legal action (the Trump Organisation's CFO was arrested on tax fraud charges, though paradoxically that might be good news for Trump because it shows he has resisted attempts to turn him into a prosecution witness).
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,173
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Fantastic result yesterday, and I think the whole country can get behind Norris' astoundingly good qualifying performance.

    Had a dinner last night with someone made redundant by McLaren last year. He wishes them all the worst luck in the world.
    Many F1 teams have had to reduce their head count - because of a budget cap that’s been bought in this year, and because they only got half the usual prize money last year thanks to the pandemic. McLaren also lost a lot of the road car team during the pandemic, as people stopped buying mid-level sports cars too.

    I think Williams are hiring, they have new shareholders willing to invest.
    My friend’s dad worked there 32 years. Contributing to eight (?) world titles in that time. It was utterly vindictive and has nothing to do with finances.

    That said, from what I can tell, Zac Brown is [redacted]. If McLaren exists in a few years time I will be very surprised.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,399

    Euro 2020 Betfair prices and their implied probabilities:-


    1 England 2.66 37.6%
    2 Italy 3.4 29.4%
    3 Spain 4 25.0%
    4 Denmark 11.5 8.7%
    Betting with the heart or the head?
    I'm still laying England, although I now think there's a good chance I'll lose.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,846
    malcolmg said:

    Euro 2020 Betfair prices and their implied probabilities:-

    1  England  2.66  37.6%
    2 Italy 3.4 29.4%
    3 Spain 4 25.0%
    4 Denmark 11.5 8.7%
    Wishful thinking , by deluded people who have obviously not been watching the football.
    Wishful thinking by people who can see that England has the easier semi-final, and still has not conceded a goal in Euro 2020.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    malcolmg said:

    FPT - I tried to recommend Clarkson's Farm to a couple we were renting our self-catering place from last week in Devon. They'd moved down from Oxfordshire 5 years ago. She was an ex primary school teacher and he an ex estate agent.

    As soon as I got the word "Clarkson" out of my mouth she said 'oh' and looked uncomfortably at the ground, and he grunted and said he was a 'wanker'. That told me so much about them and their politics.

    His name is still a swear word amongst bien-pensant Guardianista circles, and they really struggle to get past it.

    His a wanker though, only gammons like him.
    Doesn't like 911s. Total arsehole and Pound Shop Harry Metcalfe. (From whom JC cribbed the farm idea.)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,399

    Back home, Boris Johnson has hitherto been a lucky general. He may be about to ride the same luck with England at the Euros.

    England looked pretty good last night but they've still not played a decent side. That might not happen until the final. If it's England v Italy then on neutral territory you'd back the Italians. On home turf? Well, they may do it. Johnson will saunter in and make it look like another triumph for St George.

    I am not so sure. A few weeks ago, Johnson, Patel and various other Tory politicians were very happy to endorse the booing of England players because they thought it would play well in the country. They better hope that if the England team is victorious that is not brought up a fair bit - and is not mentioned at any Downing Street reception.
    One of the biggest risks of an England victory is that it turbocharges the knee and BLM, and further accentuates divisions, rather than people recognising that a truce was basically called over it and the FA have quietly agreed an exit strategy for next season.

    It won't be the Conservatives who try to exploit it for those ends - the usual suspects will find it simply irresistible - so when they do I'll look forward to hearing your condemnation of them trying to start an unnecessary culture war.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,569
    Dura_Ace said:

    malcolmg said:

    FPT - I tried to recommend Clarkson's Farm to a couple we were renting our self-catering place from last week in Devon. They'd moved down from Oxfordshire 5 years ago. She was an ex primary school teacher and he an ex estate agent.

    As soon as I got the word "Clarkson" out of my mouth she said 'oh' and looked uncomfortably at the ground, and he grunted and said he was a 'wanker'. That told me so much about them and their politics.

    His name is still a swear word amongst bien-pensant Guardianista circles, and they really struggle to get past it.

    His a wanker though, only gammons like him.
    Doesn't like 911s. Total arsehole and Pound Shop Harry Metcalfe. (From whom JC cribbed the farm idea.)
    Harry’s Farm is brilliant. He was a farmer before he was a car journalist.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    malcolmg said:

    Euro 2020 Betfair prices and their implied probabilities:-


    1 England 2.66 37.6%
    2 Italy 3.4 29.4%
    3 Spain 4 25.0%
    4 Denmark 11.5 8.7%
    Betting with the heart or the head?
    Heart for sure, no way should England be anywhere near favourites, Spain and Italy look miles better teams and England will do well to beat Denmark, absolutely deluded.

    If England and Denmark play to their full potential, England will win because we have better players. Spain and Italy are a step up, especially defensively (we look very vulnerable on the right while Pickford lacks the judgment and grace under pressure a top keeper requires), but they would be playing us away from home. Either should start as favourites in my book, but not by much.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,775
    Mr. 86, I'm quite surprised to hear that, but, then, I have no idea about the non-F1 side of things. Company going under/being taken over, do you think?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,414
    edited July 2021
    malcolmg said:

    FPT - I tried to recommend Clarkson's Farm to a couple we were renting our self-catering place from last week in Devon. They'd moved down from Oxfordshire 5 years ago. She was an ex primary school teacher and he an ex estate agent.

    As soon as I got the word "Clarkson" out of my mouth she said 'oh' and looked uncomfortably at the ground, and he grunted and said he was a 'wanker'. That told me so much about them and their politics.

    His name is still a swear word amongst bien-pensant Guardianista circles, and they really struggle to get past it.

    His a wanker though, only gammons like him.
    Well, I'm a Guardian reader and I've some admiration for him. Got where he has without the help of University contacts, even though his Dad had an incredibly lucky break.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652

    Back home, Boris Johnson has hitherto been a lucky general. He may be about to ride the same luck with England at the Euros.

    England looked pretty good last night but they've still not played a decent side. That might not happen until the final. If it's England v Italy then on neutral territory you'd back the Italians. On home turf? Well, they may do it. Johnson will saunter in and make it look like another triumph for St George.

    I am not so sure. A few weeks ago, Johnson, Patel and various other Tory politicians were very happy to endorse the booing of England players because they thought it would play well in the country. They better hope that if the England team is victorious that is not brought up a fair bit - and is not mentioned at any Downing Street reception.
    One of the biggest risks of an England victory is that it turbocharges the knee and BLM, and further accentuates divisions, rather than people recognising that a truce was basically called over it and the FA have quietly agreed an exit strategy for next season.

    It won't be the Conservatives who try to exploit it for those ends - the usual suspects will find it simply irresistible - so when they do I'll look forward to hearing your condemnation of them trying to start an unnecessary culture war.

    Ha, ha - Johnson and Patel decided there were votes in a culture war against the England team. People will remember that as they now seek to climb on board the bandwagon. I doubt it will hurt them very much but it will probably mean they don't reap the feelgood dividends that unequivocal support from the start may have done.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,569
    edited July 2021
    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Fantastic result yesterday, and I think the whole country can get behind Norris' astoundingly good qualifying performance.

    Had a dinner last night with someone made redundant by McLaren last year. He wishes them all the worst luck in the world.
    Many F1 teams have had to reduce their head count - because of a budget cap that’s been bought in this year, and because they only got half the usual prize money last year thanks to the pandemic. McLaren also lost a lot of the road car team during the pandemic, as people stopped buying mid-level sports cars too.

    I think Williams are hiring, they have new shareholders willing to invest.
    My friend’s dad worked there 32 years. Contributing to eight (?) world titles in that time. It was utterly vindictive and has nothing to do with finances.

    That said, from what I can tell, Zac Brown is [redacted]. If McLaren exists in a few years time I will be very surprised.
    That’s not good. Sounds like they got rid of one physcopath in Ron Dennis, and replaced him with another.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,399
    malcolmg said:

    FPT - I tried to recommend Clarkson's Farm to a couple we were renting our self-catering place from last week in Devon. They'd moved down from Oxfordshire 5 years ago. She was an ex primary school teacher and he an ex estate agent.

    As soon as I got the word "Clarkson" out of my mouth she said 'oh' and looked uncomfortably at the ground, and he grunted and said he was a 'wanker'. That told me so much about them and their politics.

    His name is still a swear word amongst bien-pensant Guardianista circles, and they really struggle to get past it.

    His a wanker though, only gammons like him.
    He's someone certain type of people love to hate, but they also can't resist watching his programmes - which is why he gets such high viewing figures.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,024
    Top trolling by the Russians.

    https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210703-russian-law-takes-fizz-out-of-french-champagne-supplies
    … Moet Hennessy's Russia office warned local partners it was suspending supplies after Russian lawmakers adopted legislation stipulating that the word "champagne" can only be applied to wine produced in Russia, while the world-famous tipple from France's Champagne region should be called "sparkling wine"...
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,211

    Been a while since I posted any moths for your delight, but I thought you might like this Lunar Hornet Moth, an astounding example of mimicry by one utterly harmless critter of another feared one, here the Hornet.

    (It and two others came to a pheromone lure, which in itself was one of the more bizarre (but as it turned out, welcome) Christmas presents I have ever received!)




    @MarqueeMark

    Nice one. What were you trying to lure, a clearwing?

    Where you you get the pheromone lures from? What is the best time of day to put them out and where - hang on a tree I guess?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    On topic, I disagree. I think Trump will be the nominee because why wouldn't he be? Jan 6th is irrelevant; he'll just say it was BLM/antifa or a deep state false flag.

    I also think he'll beat Kamala even though she has a single name brand which is generally considered a great strength for a politician. Biden looks like he's nearly dead now so I'd be surprised if he still around in 2024.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,569

    Back home, Boris Johnson has hitherto been a lucky general. He may be about to ride the same luck with England at the Euros.

    England looked pretty good last night but they've still not played a decent side. That might not happen until the final. If it's England v Italy then on neutral territory you'd back the Italians. On home turf? Well, they may do it. Johnson will saunter in and make it look like another triumph for St George.

    I am not so sure. A few weeks ago, Johnson, Patel and various other Tory politicians were very happy to endorse the booing of England players because they thought it would play well in the country. They better hope that if the England team is victorious that is not brought up a fair bit - and is not mentioned at any Downing Street reception.
    There a few posts coming up on my Facebook page referring to the fact that half the squad are of immigrant stock. All positive; reminding readers that we need immigrants in all sorts of walks of life.
    I'm slightly worried because the flip-side of that argument is that these players are somehow not properly British. I hope we do not follow the American route of hyphenated nationalities, of Irish-English, Jamaican-English and so on.
    How’s about we concentrate more on the content of people’s character, than the colour of their skin?

    The current trend is very worrying. “Anti-racism” appears to be just racism, treating people differently according to how they look.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,399

    Back home, Boris Johnson has hitherto been a lucky general. He may be about to ride the same luck with England at the Euros.

    England looked pretty good last night but they've still not played a decent side. That might not happen until the final. If it's England v Italy then on neutral territory you'd back the Italians. On home turf? Well, they may do it. Johnson will saunter in and make it look like another triumph for St George.

    I am not so sure. A few weeks ago, Johnson, Patel and various other Tory politicians were very happy to endorse the booing of England players because they thought it would play well in the country. They better hope that if the England team is victorious that is not brought up a fair bit - and is not mentioned at any Downing Street reception.
    One of the biggest risks of an England victory is that it turbocharges the knee and BLM, and further accentuates divisions, rather than people recognising that a truce was basically called over it and the FA have quietly agreed an exit strategy for next season.

    It won't be the Conservatives who try to exploit it for those ends - the usual suspects will find it simply irresistible - so when they do I'll look forward to hearing your condemnation of them trying to start an unnecessary culture war.

    Ha, ha - Johnson and Patel decided there were votes in a culture war against the England team. People will remember that as they now seek to climb on board the bandwagon. I doubt it will hurt them very much but it will probably mean they don't reap the feelgood dividends that unequivocal support from the start may have done.

    They were reflecting the fact that almost half of football fans and a bigger proportion in the country didn't like The Knee, that it was likely to divide rather than unite people and it was unnecessary. In the end, the fans and the country decided to call a truce (despite not liking it then and still not liking it now) because backing the team unequivocally is more important - everyone wants a win; no-one wants any distractions.

    As usual, those objecting to a "culture war" are really objecting to anyone putting up resistance to their prosecution of it.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,173
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Fantastic result yesterday, and I think the whole country can get behind Norris' astoundingly good qualifying performance.

    Had a dinner last night with someone made redundant by McLaren last year. He wishes them all the worst luck in the world.
    Many F1 teams have had to reduce their head count - because of a budget cap that’s been bought in this year, and because they only got half the usual prize money last year thanks to the pandemic. McLaren also lost a lot of the road car team during the pandemic, as people stopped buying mid-level sports cars too.

    I think Williams are hiring, they have new shareholders willing to invest.
    My friend’s dad worked there 32 years. Contributing to eight (?) world titles in that time. It was utterly vindictive and has nothing to do with finances.

    That said, from what I can tell, Zac Brown is [redacted]. If McLaren exists in a few years time I will be very surprised.
    That’s not good. Sounds like they got rid of one physcopath in Ron Dennis, and replaced him with another.
    Ron built a world class racing team that won titles. Zac is a vulture.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,977
    Dura_Ace said:

    On topic, I disagree. I think Trump will be the nominee because why wouldn't he be? Jan 6th is irrelevant; he'll just say it was BLM/antifa or a deep state false flag.

    I also think he'll beat Kamala even though she has a single name brand which is generally considered a great strength for a politician. Biden looks like he's nearly dead now so I'd be surprised if he still around in 2024.

    Because he might be bankrupt, or in jail.

    One of Trump’s tricks is to basically openly confess to crimes…it Jedi mind-tricks his followers into believing that it can’t possibly be illegal if he’s talking about it in public. He did it with collusion, obstruction, extortion…seems to work for him https://twitter.com/andrewfeinberg/status/1411493248502317056

    New tonight: Donald Trump lashed out at Manhattan prosecutors for indicting his company at his rally in Sarasota.

    But he also appeared to acknowledge the tax schemes while questioning whether the alleged violations were in fact crimes.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-rally-sarasota/2021/07/03/6965b6b2-dc71-11eb-ae62-2d07d7df83bd_story.html
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652

    Back home, Boris Johnson has hitherto been a lucky general. He may be about to ride the same luck with England at the Euros.

    England looked pretty good last night but they've still not played a decent side. That might not happen until the final. If it's England v Italy then on neutral territory you'd back the Italians. On home turf? Well, they may do it. Johnson will saunter in and make it look like another triumph for St George.

    I am not so sure. A few weeks ago, Johnson, Patel and various other Tory politicians were very happy to endorse the booing of England players because they thought it would play well in the country. They better hope that if the England team is victorious that is not brought up a fair bit - and is not mentioned at any Downing Street reception.
    There a few posts coming up on my Facebook page referring to the fact that half the squad are of immigrant stock. All positive; reminding readers that we need immigrants in all sorts of walks of life.
    I'm slightly worried because the flip-side of that argument is that these players are somehow not properly British. I hope we do not follow the American route of hyphenated nationalities, of Irish-English, Jamaican-English and so on.

    I genuinely don't understand why that is the flipside of the argument. Why should it be?

  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,639
    edited July 2021

    FPT - I tried to recommend Clarkson's Farm to a couple we were renting our self-catering place from last week in Devon. They'd moved down from Oxfordshire 5 years ago. She was an ex primary school teacher and he an ex estate agent.

    As soon as I got the word "Clarkson" out of my mouth she said 'oh' and looked uncomfortably at the ground, and he grunted and said he was a 'wanker'. That told me so much about them and their politics.

    His name is still a swear word amongst bien-pensant Guardianista circles, and they really struggle to get past it.

    Didn’t Clarkson vote Remain? Don’t think he’s a fan of Brexit. I’m a Guardian-reading Remainer. Been watching Top Gear since the William Woollard days, I think Jezza is a sound bloke beneath the irascible Gammony character he’s constructed for himself. Not a fan of the farming thing though, watched the first one the other week not been tempted back.

    Edit: Not that you mention Brexit, but the picture you painted conjures up a mental image of bitter Remainers!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,846
    edited July 2021
    Nigelb said:

    Top trolling by the Russians.

    https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210703-russian-law-takes-fizz-out-of-french-champagne-supplies
    … Moet Hennessy's Russia office warned local partners it was suspending supplies after Russian lawmakers adopted legislation stipulating that the word "champagne" can only be applied to wine produced in Russia, while the world-famous tipple from France's Champagne region should be called "sparkling wine"...

    Watching Neighbours (blimey, it must be getting on for 40 years ago now) I was always amused to hear Australians using the term "French champagne".
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,309

    malcolmg said:

    Euro 2020 Betfair prices and their implied probabilities:-

    1  England  2.66  37.6%
    2 Italy 3.4 29.4%
    3 Spain 4 25.0%
    4 Denmark 11.5 8.7%
    Wishful thinking , by deluded people who have obviously not been watching the football.
    Wishful thinking by people who can see that England has the easier semi-final, and still has not conceded a goal in Euro 2020.
    Hmmm, may be the easier one but far from easy. They have yet to meet a decent team and have played at home almost every game. Not a chance that they will manage to match Spain or Italy.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Scott_xP said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    On topic, I disagree. I think Trump will be the nominee because why wouldn't he be? Jan 6th is irrelevant; he'll just say it was BLM/antifa or a deep state false flag.

    I also think he'll beat Kamala even though she has a single name brand which is generally considered a great strength for a politician. Biden looks like he's nearly dead now so I'd be surprised if he still around in 2024.

    Because he might be bankrupt, or in jail.

    One of Trump’s tricks is to basically openly confess to crimes…it Jedi mind-tricks his followers into believing that it can’t possibly be illegal if he’s talking about it in public. He did it with collusion, obstruction, extortion…seems to work for him https://twitter.com/andrewfeinberg/status/1411493248502317056

    New tonight: Donald Trump lashed out at Manhattan prosecutors for indicting his company at his rally in Sarasota.

    But he also appeared to acknowledge the tax schemes while questioning whether the alleged violations were in fact crimes.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-rally-sarasota/2021/07/03/6965b6b2-dc71-11eb-ae62-2d07d7df83bd_story.html
    There's not enough time - 29 months until the Iowa caucus. Any legal difficulties can be strung out until he's back in the Whitehouse.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,977
    malcolmg said:

    They have yet to meet a decent team

    Apart from Scotland, obviously, who are at a minimum 4 goals better than Ukraine...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,977
    Dura_Ace said:

    Any legal difficulties can be strung out until he's back in the Whitehouse.

    They could when he was President. Not sure how he delays it now.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,309
    Scott_xP said:

    malcolmg said:

    They have yet to meet a decent team

    Apart from Scotland, obviously, who are at a minimum 4 goals better than Ukraine...
    There is not a team on the planet who Scotland are 4 goals better than unfortunately.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652

    Back home, Boris Johnson has hitherto been a lucky general. He may be about to ride the same luck with England at the Euros.

    England looked pretty good last night but they've still not played a decent side. That might not happen until the final. If it's England v Italy then on neutral territory you'd back the Italians. On home turf? Well, they may do it. Johnson will saunter in and make it look like another triumph for St George.

    I am not so sure. A few weeks ago, Johnson, Patel and various other Tory politicians were very happy to endorse the booing of England players because they thought it would play well in the country. They better hope that if the England team is victorious that is not brought up a fair bit - and is not mentioned at any Downing Street reception.
    One of the biggest risks of an England victory is that it turbocharges the knee and BLM, and further accentuates divisions, rather than people recognising that a truce was basically called over it and the FA have quietly agreed an exit strategy for next season.

    It won't be the Conservatives who try to exploit it for those ends - the usual suspects will find it simply irresistible - so when they do I'll look forward to hearing your condemnation of them trying to start an unnecessary culture war.

    Ha, ha - Johnson and Patel decided there were votes in a culture war against the England team. People will remember that as they now seek to climb on board the bandwagon. I doubt it will hurt them very much but it will probably mean they don't reap the feelgood dividends that unequivocal support from the start may have done.

    They were reflecting the fact that almost half of football fans and a bigger proportion in the country didn't like The Knee, that it was likely to divide rather than unite people and it was unnecessary. In the end, the fans and the country decided to call a truce (despite not liking it then and still not liking it now) because backing the team unequivocally is more important - everyone wants a win; no-one wants any distractions.

    As usual, those objecting to a "culture war" are really objecting to anyone putting up resistance to their prosecution of it.

    As usual, those who object to what the England players have made clear is a simple act of anti-racist solidarity decide that it is a declaration of war against them.

    Not liking the knee is not the same as actively booing those who take the knee. It is very different. Like you, Johnson and Patel failed to make the distinction, so now look even more opportunistic as they jump on the England bandwagon than would otherwise have been the case.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677



    Didn’t Clarkson vote Remain?

    Yes, although I've never seen a full episode of TG or the Amazon thing (only fragments on flights or YT) so he may have recanted.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,846

    malcolmg said:

    Euro 2020 Betfair prices and their implied probabilities:-


    1 England 2.66 37.6%
    2 Italy 3.4 29.4%
    3 Spain 4 25.0%
    4 Denmark 11.5 8.7%
    Betting with the heart or the head?
    Heart for sure, no way should England be anywhere near favourites, Spain and Italy look miles better teams and England will do well to beat Denmark, absolutely deluded.

    If England and Denmark play to their full potential, England will win because we have better players. Spain and Italy are a step up, especially defensively (we look very vulnerable on the right while Pickford lacks the judgment and grace under pressure a top keeper requires), but they would be playing us away from home. Either should start as favourites in my book, but not by much.

    Yes, it is important to note that England are favourites because we have the easier semi-final. If you look at the combined probabilities per semi-final, then we see the Italy/Spain semi-final (29.4 + 25 = 54.4%) is rated more highly than England/Denmark.

    1 England 2.66 37.6%
    2 Italy 3.4 29.4%
    3 Spain 4 25.0%
    4 Denmark 11.5 8.7%
  • Foxy said:

    FTPT:

    As someone not interested in football, or tennis, it should be said that broadcast TV atm is rather pants. Especially the BBC. Both BBC 1 and 2 bleeping well broadcasting Wimbledon for most of the day (except today, obv). It's enough to make me skip the licence fee ... ;)

    Thank goodness for YouTube and DVDs.

    But well done to England. I know the team's success matters a lot to people, and it's good to see so many of my countrymen (exc. many Welsh and Scottish) happy.

    As an aside, my son is in the situation where he doesn't watch footie, but 'knows' it is something he should be interested in. Before the championship he asked if he could watch the matches.
    "Who are you supporting?" I asked.
    "Well, England," he said.
    "Ah, good."
    "And Turkey, because mum is Turkish. And Holland, because my teacher's from there. And Scotland, because you love it. And Wales, because a friend's Welsh."

    Since then, he hasn't asked to watch a single match ...

    It was the 2002 World Cup that got Fox Jr, then 7 years old into Football. I wasn't particularly bothered, but promised to take him to a proper match, and got cheap tickets for Leicester vs Gillingham. We both got hooked, and have been season ticket holders since. It is a great bit of father son bonding.

    And if you don't like sport, Olympics coming soon too, though broadcast hours awkward here.
    Now England is in the semi-final, increased peer pressure at school may influence hitherto uninterested boys. In any case, it might be part of parental duty to watch it alongside even quite young children simply so they can say in later years that they saw England win Euro 2020. Obviously, if England lose, then watching the match will be unimportant.
    As I mentioned, my teenage son became bored 30 minutes into the game and went off to do something else.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Scott_xP said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Any legal difficulties can be strung out until he's back in the Whitehouse.

    They could when he was President. Not sure how he delays it now.
    How long do you think it would take them to get an indictment, a conviction and exhaust all appeals in NY? The sum total of my legal knowledge of these matters is from watching Billions but my guess is a very long time.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,399

    FPT - I tried to recommend Clarkson's Farm to a couple we were renting our self-catering place from last week in Devon. They'd moved down from Oxfordshire 5 years ago. She was an ex primary school teacher and he an ex estate agent.

    As soon as I got the word "Clarkson" out of my mouth she said 'oh' and looked uncomfortably at the ground, and he grunted and said he was a 'wanker'. That told me so much about them and their politics.

    His name is still a swear word amongst bien-pensant Guardianista circles, and they really struggle to get past it.

    Didn’t Clarkson vote Remain? Don’t think he’s a fan of Brexit. I’m a Guardian-reading Remainer. Been watching Top Gear since the William Woollard days, I think Jezza is a sound bloke beneath the irascible Gammony character he’s constructed for himself. Not a fan of the farming thing though, watched the first one the other week not been tempted back.

    Edit: Not that you mention Brexit, but the picture you painted conjures up a mental image of bitter Remainers!
    He did tell me he voted Remain! I didn't raise it - my father did (who goes straight in there with the big stuff, rather embarrassingly) and that flushed it out, although he did say he hated the EU's bureaucracy as well.

    I said to him to give it a try anyway as it shows a different side of Clarkson and the spotlight it shines onto the economics of farming is genuinely interesting.

    FWIW, I think Jezza's politics are genuinely similar to Cameron/Osborne - he's a liberal establishment Tory.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,206

    Sajid Javid's arrival seems to have coincided with a policy shift. It makes me think that Matt Hancock and his coterie of white coats held huge sway over Gov't policy. Javid and Sunak appear now to have shifted the weight towards 'learning to live with it' which is, frankly, brilliant news. The link between cases and deaths has been broken by the vaccines and we need to roll up our sleeves and get on with life. Banish fear. Live.

    It does also show how incredibly weak Boris Johnson is. He gets pushed and pulled around, almost certainly in large part because he's lazy and doesn't have a grasp of the facts. I don't think he's as bright as he seems to think he is.

    I've wondered if the opposite is true. If Boris had had enough of Hancock's loony lockdownism, but didn't want to have open war with the zero covidians by sacking him to change policy, what could be better than pushing him out over a scandal, and installing a less insane health secretary. It wouldn't shock me if Boris's people were behind that video ending up in the public domain, to give Boris some cover to bin him.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,173

    malcolmg said:

    Euro 2020 Betfair prices and their implied probabilities:-


    1 England 2.66 37.6%
    2 Italy 3.4 29.4%
    3 Spain 4 25.0%
    4 Denmark 11.5 8.7%
    Betting with the heart or the head?
    Heart for sure, no way should England be anywhere near favourites, Spain and Italy look miles better teams and England will do well to beat Denmark, absolutely deluded.

    If England and Denmark play to their full potential, England will win because we have better players. Spain and Italy are a step up, especially defensively (we look very vulnerable on the right while Pickford lacks the judgment and grace under pressure a top keeper requires), but they would be playing us away from home. Either should start as favourites in my book, but not by much.

    Yes, it is important to note that England are favourites because we have the easier semi-final. If you look at the combined probabilities per semi-final, then we see the Italy/Spain semi-final (29.4 + 25 = 54.4%) is rated more highly than England/Denmark.

    1 England 2.66 37.6%
    2 Italy 3.4 29.4%
    3 Spain 4 25.0%
    4 Denmark 11.5 8.7%
    If England win on Wednesday, then I think they start as favourites, certainly against Spain.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,977
    Dura_Ace said:

    How long do you think it would take them to get an indictment, a conviction and exhaust all appeals in NY? The sum total of my legal knowledge of these matters is from watching Billions but my guess is a very long time.

    You might be right, but in Billions Axe doesn't typically convene a rally of supporters and say "yes, I did it"
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,399

    Back home, Boris Johnson has hitherto been a lucky general. He may be about to ride the same luck with England at the Euros.

    England looked pretty good last night but they've still not played a decent side. That might not happen until the final. If it's England v Italy then on neutral territory you'd back the Italians. On home turf? Well, they may do it. Johnson will saunter in and make it look like another triumph for St George.

    I am not so sure. A few weeks ago, Johnson, Patel and various other Tory politicians were very happy to endorse the booing of England players because they thought it would play well in the country. They better hope that if the England team is victorious that is not brought up a fair bit - and is not mentioned at any Downing Street reception.
    One of the biggest risks of an England victory is that it turbocharges the knee and BLM, and further accentuates divisions, rather than people recognising that a truce was basically called over it and the FA have quietly agreed an exit strategy for next season.

    It won't be the Conservatives who try to exploit it for those ends - the usual suspects will find it simply irresistible - so when they do I'll look forward to hearing your condemnation of them trying to start an unnecessary culture war.

    Ha, ha - Johnson and Patel decided there were votes in a culture war against the England team. People will remember that as they now seek to climb on board the bandwagon. I doubt it will hurt them very much but it will probably mean they don't reap the feelgood dividends that unequivocal support from the start may have done.

    They were reflecting the fact that almost half of football fans and a bigger proportion in the country didn't like The Knee, that it was likely to divide rather than unite people and it was unnecessary. In the end, the fans and the country decided to call a truce (despite not liking it then and still not liking it now) because backing the team unequivocally is more important - everyone wants a win; no-one wants any distractions.

    As usual, those objecting to a "culture war" are really objecting to anyone putting up resistance to their prosecution of it.

    As usual, those who object to what the England players have made clear is a simple act of anti-racist solidarity decide that it is a declaration of war against them.

    Not liking the knee is not the same as actively booing those who take the knee. It is very different. Like you, Johnson and Patel failed to make the distinction, so now look even more opportunistic as they jump on the England bandwagon than would otherwise have been the case.
    If you'd spent more time on here (rather than Twitter, where you now reside) you'll know I repeatedly said I don't approve of booing.

    I look forward to you withdrawing your remark.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,767
    Neither Spqin nor Italy have been wholly and consistently convincing either. Almost no-one ever is.
    And yes, England have been playing largely at home, but that will be the case from here on in. Though their best performance was the one in which they weren't.

    Still, I think the probabilities look a little out: I'd say in the semis England have a 66% chance of beating Denmark and Italy have a 60% chance of beating Spain. I'd put Eng Spa at 50/50, Eng Ita at 40/60, Den Spa at 67/33 and Den Ita at 30/70.
    Which suggests to me that Denmark is very much the value bet.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,173
    edited July 2021

    Back home, Boris Johnson has hitherto been a lucky general. He may be about to ride the same luck with England at the Euros.

    England looked pretty good last night but they've still not played a decent side. That might not happen until the final. If it's England v Italy then on neutral territory you'd back the Italians. On home turf? Well, they may do it. Johnson will saunter in and make it look like another triumph for St George.

    I am not so sure. A few weeks ago, Johnson, Patel and various other Tory politicians were very happy to endorse the booing of England players because they thought it would play well in the country. They better hope that if the England team is victorious that is not brought up a fair bit - and is not mentioned at any Downing Street reception.
    One of the biggest risks of an England victory is that it turbocharges the knee and BLM, and further accentuates divisions, rather than people recognising that a truce was basically called over it and the FA have quietly agreed an exit strategy for next season.

    It won't be the Conservatives who try to exploit it for those ends - the usual suspects will find it simply irresistible - so when they do I'll look forward to hearing your condemnation of them trying to start an unnecessary culture war.

    Ha, ha - Johnson and Patel decided there were votes in a culture war against the England team. People will remember that as they now seek to climb on board the bandwagon. I doubt it will hurt them very much but it will probably mean they don't reap the feelgood dividends that unequivocal support from the start may have done.

    They were reflecting the fact that almost half of football fans and a bigger proportion in the country didn't like The Knee, that it was likely to divide rather than unite people and it was unnecessary. In the end, the fans and the country decided to call a truce (despite not liking it then and still not liking it now) because backing the team unequivocally is more important - everyone wants a win; no-one wants any distractions.

    As usual, those objecting to a "culture war" are really objecting to anyone putting up resistance to their prosecution of it.

    As usual, those who object to what the England players have made clear is a simple act of anti-racist solidarity decide that it is a declaration of war against them.

    Not liking the knee is not the same as actively booing those who take the knee. It is very different. Like you, Johnson and Patel failed to make the distinction, so now look even more opportunistic as they jump on the England bandwagon than would otherwise have been the case.
    I don’t know if I’ll boo or not - I’m too polite, really. But if I do it’ll be because I don’t want the game I love to be infected with politics.

    I thought it was ridiculous that Titi got into trouble for dedicating a goal to the birth of a child. But nearly 20 years on, I can see why there was a zero tolerance to this sort of thing.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/2251338.stm
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895

    I watched the first 30 mins of the footy with my teenage son who then went off to watch something else and I also switched over.

    Tell it not in Gath but I find England's style of play dull to watch.

    Emma Raducanu on the other hand was fantastic yesterday. A thrilling game, but then I guess you need to like tennis.

    I had the chance last night of a pair of Centre or No.1 court tickets for Monday at £140 a piece but I turned them down. Possibly mad of me but I enjoyed my time there last week at £30 a piece and that will do me.

    There's also the small matter of the England v India test series coming up, which should be fantastic.

    To be honest, anything that knocks covid off the front pages is okay if it doesn't involve tragedy. Yesterday was the first time in over a year that Sky News had nothing about covid on their front. Bravo for that I say. The thing is no longer a mass killer, thanks to the vaccines, and it needs to be dealt with as such.

    Sport? Today is the Austrian Grand Prix followed by Indycar at Mid Ohio.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652

    Back home, Boris Johnson has hitherto been a lucky general. He may be about to ride the same luck with England at the Euros.

    England looked pretty good last night but they've still not played a decent side. That might not happen until the final. If it's England v Italy then on neutral territory you'd back the Italians. On home turf? Well, they may do it. Johnson will saunter in and make it look like another triumph for St George.

    I am not so sure. A few weeks ago, Johnson, Patel and various other Tory politicians were very happy to endorse the booing of England players because they thought it would play well in the country. They better hope that if the England team is victorious that is not brought up a fair bit - and is not mentioned at any Downing Street reception.
    One of the biggest risks of an England victory is that it turbocharges the knee and BLM, and further accentuates divisions, rather than people recognising that a truce was basically called over it and the FA have quietly agreed an exit strategy for next season.

    It won't be the Conservatives who try to exploit it for those ends - the usual suspects will find it simply irresistible - so when they do I'll look forward to hearing your condemnation of them trying to start an unnecessary culture war.

    Ha, ha - Johnson and Patel decided there were votes in a culture war against the England team. People will remember that as they now seek to climb on board the bandwagon. I doubt it will hurt them very much but it will probably mean they don't reap the feelgood dividends that unequivocal support from the start may have done.

    They were reflecting the fact that almost half of football fans and a bigger proportion in the country didn't like The Knee, that it was likely to divide rather than unite people and it was unnecessary. In the end, the fans and the country decided to call a truce (despite not liking it then and still not liking it now) because backing the team unequivocally is more important - everyone wants a win; no-one wants any distractions.

    As usual, those objecting to a "culture war" are really objecting to anyone putting up resistance to their prosecution of it.

    As usual, those who object to what the England players have made clear is a simple act of anti-racist solidarity decide that it is a declaration of war against them.

    Not liking the knee is not the same as actively booing those who take the knee. It is very different. Like you, Johnson and Patel failed to make the distinction, so now look even more opportunistic as they jump on the England bandwagon than would otherwise have been the case.
    If you'd spent more time on here (rather than Twitter, where you now reside) you'll know I repeatedly said I don't approve of booing.

    I look forward to you withdrawing your remark.

    Happy to withdraw. Johnson and Patel should have said the same. But they didn't because they thought there may be political opportunities.

  • tlg86 said:

    Back home, Boris Johnson has hitherto been a lucky general. He may be about to ride the same luck with England at the Euros.

    England looked pretty good last night but they've still not played a decent side. That might not happen until the final. If it's England v Italy then on neutral territory you'd back the Italians. On home turf? Well, they may do it. Johnson will saunter in and make it look like another triumph for St George.

    I am not so sure. A few weeks ago, Johnson, Patel and various other Tory politicians were very happy to endorse the booing of England players because they thought it would play well in the country. They better hope that if the England team is victorious that is not brought up a fair bit - and is not mentioned at any Downing Street reception.
    One of the biggest risks of an England victory is that it turbocharges the knee and BLM, and further accentuates divisions, rather than people recognising that a truce was basically called over it and the FA have quietly agreed an exit strategy for next season.

    It won't be the Conservatives who try to exploit it for those ends - the usual suspects will find it simply irresistible - so when they do I'll look forward to hearing your condemnation of them trying to start an unnecessary culture war.

    Ha, ha - Johnson and Patel decided there were votes in a culture war against the England team. People will remember that as they now seek to climb on board the bandwagon. I doubt it will hurt them very much but it will probably mean they don't reap the feelgood dividends that unequivocal support from the start may have done.

    They were reflecting the fact that almost half of football fans and a bigger proportion in the country didn't like The Knee, that it was likely to divide rather than unite people and it was unnecessary. In the end, the fans and the country decided to call a truce (despite not liking it then and still not liking it now) because backing the team unequivocally is more important - everyone wants a win; no-one wants any distractions.

    As usual, those objecting to a "culture war" are really objecting to anyone putting up resistance to their prosecution of it.

    As usual, those who object to what the England players have made clear is a simple act of anti-racist solidarity decide that it is a declaration of war against them.

    Not liking the knee is not the same as actively booing those who take the knee. It is very different. Like you, Johnson and Patel failed to make the distinction, so now look even more opportunistic as they jump on the England bandwagon than would otherwise have been the case.
    I don’t know if I’ll boo or not - I’m too polite, really. But if I do it’ll be because I don’t want the game I live to be infected with politics.

    I thought it was ridiculous that Titi got into trouble for dedicating a goal to the birth of a child. But nearly 20 years on, I can see why there was a zero tolerance to this sort of thing.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/2251338.stm
    Given the vile racism and tribalism deeply embedded in football, including in Britain, then I get why they want to do this.

    However, I don't particularly enjoy the gesture politics of football authorities either and the constant one minute silences for this or that person who has pegged out is beyond tiresome.

    But booing this? That's moronic.
This discussion has been closed.