Could Batley change Starmer’s fortunes? – politicalbetting.com
Like all party leaders after a much publicised by-election victory Keir Starmer sped up to constituency for the now customary photo event with the winning candidate and assorted party workers.
For what it’s worth, I’m not sure the Tories will be too upset here. An extra 2 majority is neither here nor there, whereas shoring up an opponent with known strengths and more importantly known weaknesses has a value in itself. Expecting a sense of relief in Tory planning circles that the plans to deploy “that picture” of taking the knee are still relevant come the next election.
Two observations. First, if Keir Starmer had to speed up to Batley then he expected Labour to lose. He should already have been there.
Second, he needs to resist the ultras who want him to declare war on the left of the party, and concentrate on attacking the government. PMQs was a good start.
I agree. This result could well put wind in Sir Keir's Labour Party's sails.
I have said already I don't think it was an impressive result for Labour - their third record low vote share in a constituency in a row, that is pretty bad, and probably only saved by Hancocks faux pas revealed at the weekend... but so what?! The confidence gained from winning, even if it is misguided, is a tangible thing, especially when your confidence has been sapped of late
I suspect Starmer would have been safe even if they'd lost B&S. I was thinking more in terms of his general performance as LotO, which so far has been worse than IDS.
Two observations. First, if Keir Starmer had to speed up to Batley then he expected Labour to lose. He should already have been there.
Second, he needs to resist the ultras who want him to declare war on the left of the party, and concentrate on attacking the government. PMQs was a good start.
He had done sessions canvassing before the vote, hadn't he?
Scotland's Sir Andrew Murray really is struggling today.
He has the support of the PM
People can have more than one national identity yadda yadda yadda.
Sounds a lot like citizens of nowhere talk.
FWIW depending on my mood, I switch between being a Yorkshireman, Englishman, Brit, European (especially around Ryder Cup time), and rootless cosmopolitan/global metropolitan elite.
Right now I'm simultaneously cheering for Yorkshire against Lancashire, Britain's Sir Andrew Murray, and getting psyched for England's match tomorrow.
Scotland's Sir Andrew Murray really is struggling today.
He has the support of the PM
People can have more than one national identity yadda yadda yadda.
I don't see the point of that photo. It will annoy Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish. It is not particularly respectful: there must be countries where treading on the flag will significantly shorten your life expectancy. No-one believes Boris is a lifelong football fan but everyone takes it for granted that he supports England. So what's the point?
Keir Starmer could do very well indeed if the Tories keep blowing up their polling lead by being incompetent and corrupt
I think SKS is a poor campaigner and speaker, but would be a good PM. In particular I think he would manage a coalition or C and S much better than the alternatives.
I think this by election result probably asks as many or more questions of Starmer and his leadership as it answers. How important was the unique back story of his candidate? Would he be more vulnerable to a Gallowslam (or maybe in future, Corbynite) broadside without the sympathy that must have been garnered for poor Kim? Can he hold a safe seat without a huge scandal for the most prominent senior cabinet member of the past year? Can one of his more anonymous candidates beat a tory who makes a visible effort?
Off topic, and in my garden.. my wall of peas is going pretty well.. I hope I don't give anybody pea-ness envy
Scotland's Sir Andrew Murray really is struggling today.
He has the support of the PM
People can have more than one national identity yadda yadda yadda.
I don't see the point of that photo. It will annoy Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish. It is not particularly respectful: there must be countries where treading on the flag will significantly shorten your life expectancy. No-one believes Boris is a lifelong football fan but everyone takes it for granted that he supports England. So what's the point?
It won't happen, but he'd love for someone to say something they shouldn't. Then it's a masterstroke.
I don't see the point of that photo. It will annoy Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish. It is not particularly respectful: there must be countries where treading on the flag will significantly shorten your life expectancy. No-one believes Boris is a lifelong football fan but everyone takes it for granted that he supports England. So what's the point?
Keir Starmer could do very well indeed if the Tories keep blowing up their polling lead by being incompetent and corrupt
I think SKS is a poor campaigner and speaker, but would be a good PM. In particular I think he would manage a coalition or C and S much better than the alternatives.
So the polar opposite of the current incumbent of No 10, who has been brilliant at campaigning and a poor PM.
The trick is going to be twofold; 1 Let SKS do what he does well- be in charge and do the stuff in Parliament, where he's actually pretty good. 2 Get those around him to do a lot more of the campaigning; the mental image I have is Starmer as Kenneth Horne surrounded by a swarm of Kenneth Williamses and Hugh Paddicks. It's the job of Rayner, Nandy, Burnham and the rest of them to make their boss look good, because then they get to be in government. That's not really happening yet.
To continue the Round the Horne metaphor, if they do this, Labour should be able to look forward to an enormous Poll...
... unless the Home Office has had Vladimir deported for not sorting out his post-Brexit paperwork.
Keir Starmer could do very well indeed if the Tories keep blowing up their polling lead by being incompetent and corrupt
I think SKS is a poor campaigner and speaker, but would be a good PM. In particular I think he would manage a coalition or C and S much better than the alternatives.
A very fair assessment of SKS, with which I agree.
I've been thinking that if the Tory leader was performing as badly as SKS, they'd change leader.
But I wonder if part of the equation is that whereas the Tories used to fear the Lib Dems replacing them when they were in opposition, Labour don't have quite the same worries. Okay, it happened in Scotland, but in England and Wales Labour look set in stone in their core areas.
B&S may have kept Starmer in his job but it shouldn't hide the problems.
Corbyn 2017 looks pretty impressive in that list. Labour need to recapture that energy.
For all the bad things about the Corbyn leadership it did show, at least for a while, that Labour cared about unfairness in society.
And they were brave. They set the agenda for a long time during the 2017 election. Now, it's obviously difficult for the opposition to do that in the current circumstances, but Labour need to try to get ahead rather than simply moaning about the government. Ed Miliband managed it for a bit too.
I've been thinking that if the Tory leader was performing as badly as SKS, they'd change leader.
But I wonder if part of the equation is that whereas the Tories used to fear the Lib Dems replacing them when they were in opposition, Labour don't have quite the same worries. Okay, it happened in Scotland, but in England and Wales Labour look set in stone in their core areas.
It has to be remembered how hard it is for Labour to change leader.
Keir Starmer could do very well indeed if the Tories keep blowing up their polling lead by being incompetent and corrupt
I think SKS is a poor campaigner and speaker, but would be a good PM. In particular I think he would manage a coalition or C and S much better than the alternatives.
So the polar opposite of the current incumbent of No 10, who has been brilliant at campaigning and a poor PM.
The trick is going to be twofold; 1 Let SKS do what he does well- be in charge and do the stuff in Parliament, where he's actually pretty good. 2 Get those around him to do a lot more of the campaigning; the mental image I have is Starmer as Kenneth Horne surrounded by a swarm of Kenneth Williamses and Hugh Paddicks. It's the job of Rayner, Nandy, Burnham and the rest of them to make their boss look good, because then they get to be in government. That's not really happening yet.
To continue the Round the Horne metaphor, if they do this, Labour should be able to look forward to an enormous Poll...
... unless the Home Office has had Vladimir deported for not sorting out his post-Brexit paperwork.
I agree. This result could well put wind in Sir Keir's Labour Party's sails.
I have said already I don't think it was an impressive result for Labour - their third record low vote share in a constituency in a row, that is pretty bad, and probably only saved by Hancocks faux pas revealed at the weekend... but so what?! The confidence gained from winning, even if it is misguided, is a tangible thing, especially when your confidence has been sapped of late
I find it frustrating when people believe things to be true that I judge to be self-evidently false, but it's an important lesson that what people believe to be true is as important as what is actually true.
B&S may have kept Starmer in his job but it shouldn't hide the problems.
And your point?
That every by Election Sir Keir's Labour has contested they have done worse in terms of vote share then Jezza's Labour did in his bad GE
Or worse than Labour have ever done in their history in those seats, to put it another way
Well that's just flat out wrong.
Airdrie & Shotts saw Labour's share of the vote go up by 6.5%
Oh sorry, I thought there had only been the three recent ones in England.
They are the three worst vote shares for Labour in their history aren't they? Can you check?
Galloway stole about 20% of the vote!
I don't think that's reasonable. Would someone who voted for a party whose raison d'etre was anti-Labour have voted for the Labour party had he not stood? Most likely they'd have either just not voted or voted for some other fringe candidate.
My view is that at least some of the Heavy Woollen vote went to Galloway.
B&S may have kept Starmer in his job but it shouldn't hide the problems.
And your point?
The point was made in the comment.
Your reaction suggests you are uneasy about it.
Did Galloway stand in any of the other elections pre-2021?
What of it ?
Galloway feeds off dissatisfaction.
If the dissatisfaction wasn't there then he wouldn't get votes.
So why was there dissatisfaction among traditional Labour voters ?
If there was so much dissatisfaction, why didn't the Tories win?
Because they've made plenty of mistakes themselves and government's don't tend to gain seats from the opposition especially seats which are trending away from them.
But that doesn't hide the problems Labour has even if some people want to be in denial of them.
Starmer has been Labour leader for 15 months. Repeat, 15 months. During an extraordinary period dominated by Brexit as a starter and Covid as the main course. It's hilarious that so many (mainly Tories on here, but also some on the rabid left out there) have decided already that he's really boring, has no chance and should be replaced forthwith. Even the Tories would give a new leader longer than 15 months, especially under these circumstances.
Starmer has 1-2 years to make headway. His priority will be to develop a coherent, reasonably radical policy platform - it will get a hearing once the pandemic's over. If he doesn't at least draw level in the polls by 2022/23, he'll probably go of his own accord. There won't be a challenge (certainly not a serious one) until then at the earliest.
Keir Starmer could do very well indeed if the Tories keep blowing up their polling lead by being incompetent and corrupt
I think SKS is a poor campaigner and speaker, but would be a good PM. In particular I think he would manage a coalition or C and S much better than the alternatives.
There is this insideous myth that dull, weak campaigners must be good at the governing bit. In reality life isn't that fair and people who are crap at one part of the job are normally crap at the rest. Starmer would be more likely to be the next May or Brown than otherwise, given the chance.
With a bit of luck they won't have to play either.
Because England will go out weakly to the Ukraine on penalties? And we can then all talk about how we could have won it if not for stinking penalities again?
B&S may have kept Starmer in his job but it shouldn't hide the problems.
And your point?
That every by Election Sir Keir's Labour has contested they have done worse in terms of vote share then Jezza's Labour did in his bad GE
Or worse than Labour have ever done in their history in those seats, to put it another way
Well that's just flat out wrong.
Airdrie & Shotts saw Labour's share of the vote go up by 6.5%
Oh sorry, I thought there had only been the three recent ones in England.
They are the three worst vote shares for Labour in their history aren't they? Can you check?
Galloway stole about 20% of the vote!
I don't think that's reasonable. Would someone who voted for a party whose raison d'etre was anti-Labour have voted for the Labour party had he not stood? Most likely they'd have either just not voted or voted for some other fringe candidate.
My view is that at least some of the Heavy Woollen vote went to Galloway.
I reckon a lot of them didn't vote. But of those who did I'd be surprised if Galloway didn't win amongst them.
Starmer has been Labour leader for 15 months. Repeat, 15 months. During an extraordinary period dominated by Brexit as a starter and Covid as the main course. It's hilarious that so many (mainly Tories on here, but also some on the rabid left out there) have decided already that he's really boring, has no chance and should be replaced forthwith. Even the Tories would give a new leader longer than 15 months, especially under these circumstances.
Starmer has 1-2 years to make headway. His priority will be to develop a coherent, reasonably radical policy platform - it will get a hearing once the pandemic's over. If he doesn't at least draw level in the polls by 2022/23, he'll probably go of his own accord. There won't be a challenge (certainly not a serious one) until then at the earliest.
Getting a proper campaign and ground game, starting with a decent candidate. That seems to have been begun.
With a bit of luck they won't have to play either.
Because England will go out weakly to the Ukraine on penalties? And we can then all talk about how we could have won it if not for stinking penalities again?
Fairly confident that England will beat Ukraine, but I think people are underestimating Denmark, their likely semi-final opponents.
With a bit of luck they won't have to play either.
Because England will go out weakly to the Ukraine on penalties? And we can then all talk about how we could have won it if not for stinking penalities again?
Fairly confident that England will beat Ukraine, but I think people are underestimating Denmark, their likely semi-final opponents.
Comments
Said gonads may well have save Sir Keir's career.
🛳 Private donors to be called on to put wind in the sails of royal yacht project
🛳 Ex-Saga boss Lance Batchelor hired by HMG to lead national flagship project
🛳 Flagship could be hired out to companies to cover costs
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/07/02/private-donors-called-put-wind-sails-royal-yacht-project/
Second, he needs to resist the ultras who want him to declare war on the left of the party, and concentrate on attacking the government. PMQs was a good start.
I have said already I don't think it was an impressive result for Labour - their third record low vote share in a constituency in a row, that is pretty bad, and probably only saved by Hancocks faux pas revealed at the weekend... but so what?! The confidence gained from winning, even if it is misguided, is a tangible thing, especially when your confidence has been sapped of late
1983 38.0%
1987 41.1%
1992 43.1%
1997 49.4%
2001 49.9%
2005 45.8%
2010 41.5%
2015 43.2%
2017 55.5%
2019 42.7%
2021 35.3%
B&S may have kept Starmer in his job but it shouldn't hide the problems.
Romulan Lukaku!
FWIW depending on my mood, I switch between being a Yorkshireman, Englishman, Brit, European (especially around Ryder Cup time), and rootless cosmopolitan/global metropolitan elite.
Right now I'm simultaneously cheering for Yorkshire against Lancashire, Britain's Sir Andrew Murray, and getting psyched for England's match tomorrow.
Is it military? Of course, or we couldn't build it here.
But anyone can hire it? Ummm, yes...
All I have to do
Is mark my 'X' by you
And then I'm not so blue
When you're close to me
I can feel your conceit
I can hear you briefing
'gainst Sir Keir
Wouldn't you agree
Baby, you and me
Got a groovy kind of Gove
Are Switzerland England in disguise?
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/my-husband-s-gay-affair-with-gove
The husband in question is Dominic Cummings.
Or worse than Labour have ever done in their history in those seats, to put it another way
Off topic, and in my garden.. my wall of peas is going pretty well.. I hope I don't give anybody pea-ness envy
Labour would have trounced the Tories.
Airdrie & Shotts saw Labour's share of the vote go up by 6.5%
Italy are not parking the bus, they are making a statement.
They are the three worst vote shares for Labour in their history aren't they? Can you check?
Belgium are bigger chokers than South Africa in the cricket.
Your reaction suggests you are uneasy about it.
The trick is going to be twofold;
1 Let SKS do what he does well- be in charge and do the stuff in Parliament, where he's actually pretty good.
2 Get those around him to do a lot more of the campaigning; the mental image I have is Starmer as Kenneth Horne surrounded by a swarm of Kenneth Williamses and Hugh Paddicks. It's the job of Rayner, Nandy, Burnham and the rest of them to make their boss look good, because then they get to be in government. That's not really happening yet.
To continue the Round the Horne metaphor, if they do this, Labour should be able to look forward to an enormous Poll...
... unless the Home Office has had Vladimir deported for not sorting out his post-Brexit paperwork.
But I wonder if part of the equation is that whereas the Tories used to fear the Lib Dems replacing them when they were in opposition, Labour don't have quite the same worries. Okay, it happened in Scotland, but in England and Wales Labour look set in stone in their core areas.
For all his faults Corbyn knew how to campaign. It turned with his speech at Tranmere Rovers, where the chant began.
/switchesoffTSE
Which is why not gaining B&S is good for them and more importantly the country.
Galloway feeds off dissatisfaction.
If the dissatisfaction wasn't there then he wouldn't get votes.
So why was there dissatisfaction among traditional Labour voters ?
Competence is cheaper but requires hard work and attention to detail.
My view is that at least some of the Heavy Woollen vote went to Galloway.
** EXCLUSIVE in tomorrow’s Daily Telegraph **
Ministers promise to consider carefully pardon for ‘metric martyrs’ who defied the European Union two decades ago
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/02/ministers-inch-closer-pardon-metric-martyrs-defied-eu/
But that doesn't hide the problems Labour has even if some people want to be in denial of them.
Starmer has 1-2 years to make headway. His priority will be to develop a coherent, reasonably radical policy platform - it will get a hearing once the pandemic's over. If he doesn't at least draw level in the polls by 2022/23, he'll probably go of his own accord. There won't be a challenge (certainly not a serious one) until then at the earliest.
There, I’ve said it!
What do you expect from an ex Chelsea/Everton/Manchester United player?
Because no political party owns its voters.
What they have is an opportunity and a responsibility to attract voters..
And if they are unable to do so by not having the right policies or the right people they have nobody to blame but themselves.
That seems to have been begun.
Pardoning is so rare that it was a real statement when they used it for that guy at Fishmonger’s hall.
This would just be a silly gesture.