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Are we missing the obvious in Batley & Spen – Hancock and a narrowing of the poll gap? – politicalbe
Are we missing the obvious in Batley & Spen – Hancock and a narrowing of the poll gap? – politicalbetting.com
In all the analysis of today’s Batley and Spen by-election there has hardly been any mention of the national political picture and a clear narrowing of the Tory poll lead particularly since that Sun front page with the picture of then HealthSec Hancock with an aide.
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As detailed at the end of the last thread, I think Labour will win. I'm on at lesser odds than are now available but I probably won't be pressing up, though nor will I be cashing out.
It's a risky one though, unlike C&A which felt like one of those golden tips that seemed right: thank you again, Mike: your tip paid for my day at Wimbledon yesterday among many other things!
Peak Boris was May 25th. There is a discernible and definite shift now.
The one thing which might lift the Conservatives back is if England win Euro 2020 in front of a full house at Wembley. Otherwise the tide has turned.
Mike referred to three opinions polls AND three of his all-important leader ratings. All six measurements show Johnson is sliding from peak.
You may not like it. You may think it will fizzle out. But don't try and claim it isn't evidential.
Denmark seem to have 'fire on the belly'; don't think they should be written off. One wonders too, how much longer Murray can keep going.
Weatherwise it appears to be a better morning; July has brought some summer sun.
A few decent days and then a rapid descent second half of the weekend back to Atlantic weather. It may then settle down end of next week.
It's all very well going big on Staycations but UK summer weather can be horrible.
I commented yesterday that Starmer had a good PMQs and Boris's mumbling was embarrassing
However, I doubt the voters of B & S tune into PMQs, but I do think the divisive, nasty and down right ugly campaign fought by Galloway may see voters rallying to Kim Leadbeater and I expect Labour to hold the seat, probably with a reduced majority
However, returning to Boris and his inability to sack wayward colleagues and to make unpopular decisions I believe this is being noticed by conservative mps
Last Friday, at the height of Boris and Hancock's prevarications I text my local conservative mp (who is also a personal friend) and he was unequivocal in wanting Hancock gone and confirmed he had made his views known to the whips office in no uncertain terms
When news broke of Hancock's resignation I text the news to him and his one word response says it all 'fantastic'
There were 80 or more conservative mps who also demanded to the whips that Hancock resigned and Hancock found no support in the cabinet
Boris seems to have lost his mojo, (whether he has long covid is another matter) and is making unnecessary missteps and I would not be surprised if this was not being noticed across the party and with several replacements waiting in the wings, I would hope the party addresses the issue sooner rather than later
Remember, the conservatives know how to win and have a system for changing their leaders
What the Tories need is a generation of nice people. Good, honest, competent, straightforward, pleasant folk with no “side”. When one looks at the coming generation of young Tories one sees the exact opposite. Tory sleaze is going to be around for at least a half century to come.
Those people have, it seems to me, vanished.
That might be one reason why they’ve vanished.
Nissan confirm they are to build a 1 billion pound car battery factory in Sunderland
My Murray comment was simply that after numerous operations he's sometimes, particularly after a long match, looking as though his body is saying 'enough'.
A lot of folk are going to be in a foul mood come September… just as the economic shit hits the fan.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
'The government is contributing to the cost of the expansion, but a precise figure has not been disclosed.'
Ion other words, a massive handout. Some might call it a bribe.
Will we ever see the like of Mao again? Perhaps the only leading Communist with a worldwide following. Xi is trying the same cult, but without the same anti-establishment and anti-colonial following.
People like @Big_G_NorthWales will vote for a donkey with a blue rosette, and in Scotland will vote SNP until independence. Only after that will Scottish politics return to competitive parties.
And how many labour supporters voted labour with Corbyn
And I would not vote for any of the donkeys leading the lib dems
Better for the investment to be done here than sent to Brussels and invested in another country.
Has anyone factored in the euphoria of the Country having turned over the Germans...
One party states are not good, whether SNP in Holyrood, Labour in Cardiff, DUP in Stormont or Tory in Westminster. They all generate sleaze when hegemonic.
Tories can't pull faces at Matt Hancock without applying the same rules to Patel and Johnson and the others. Without being massive hypocrites.
That is very different from me wanting to become a member of or support the SNP. I hope that independent Scotland would retain its general level of civilisation and decency which has been lost south of the wall, but there are other parties who can deliver that.
It’s almost like we have a business department and a trade department, out selling the UK as a great place to do business.
His move away from both the ceasefire on internal corruption purges and the customary succession approach do make me wonder how long he'll be there and how he'll be removed. I'm sure he'll be fine for at least a few years to a decade, but if the succession mechanism isn't replaced then potential rivals may be looking at a way of achieving it without his consent.
Its not about "the ministerial code", its about Hancock enforcing laws on the rest of us that he then broke.
My parents are the same, no way would my mother have voted for a serial adulterer who abandons his his children in the past. The personality cult of Johnson blinds to all faults.
No local knowledge, just gut feeling.
But if you are worried about state aid look at bpifrance
Nissan and EVs at the moment are the brand whose batteries and motors get harvested for classic cars to be converted. They aren't a brand even on the radar for most new converts to electric as their technology is over a decade old.
Hopefully the new factory allows them to develop a battery which they can fit alongside new motors into something like a Qashqai as they'd sell loads. They can't keep peddling the Leaf which may as well have flintstone-style square wheels its so out of date.
How much is Britain providing? £0.5 bn?
If the U.K. government have put up, let’s just say £350m as a round number, to both create many jobs and secure the site for the coming decades, then it’s money well spent.
(Yes, this can go too far, as we see in the US with companies not creating jobs and getting disproportionate tax breaks).
On the third day he brought in an original copy of Mao’s little red book in Chinese…
Discuss.
https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1410311779268370437?s=21
Additionally, I'm not sure that the announcement of a jobs boost in Sunderland will have any impact on voters in West Yorkshire.
He has done nothing that other ministers including himself previously and his boss and the Home Secretary have done. None of them resigned. None of them had calls from you or your MP friend to resign.
Its called hypocrisy. Double standards.
(AIUI, there is a minimum distance turbines can be placed near each other before turbulence reduces the power generated in the downstream turbines. The larger the turbine, the greater the distance. Some older windfarms suffered badly from this, as the individual turbines were placed too close.)
‘It would be irresponsible to say’
Kwasi Kwarteng
- #r4today
No it wouldn’t. It would be honest. (Answer seems to be £100m)
https://twitter.com/paul__johnson/status/1410497318768594944
The fact he was a self-obsessed prick later doesn't change that.