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An LD Chesham & Amersham share of 40%+ would shake Tory complacency – politicalbetting.com

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  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    New US-UK Atlantic charter announced in the last hour, presumably for tomorrow's papers.

    Mainly motherhood and apple pie stuff but note the stuff on keeping "scientific and technological edge" and "health defences" - very contain China-ish:

    https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1403089015251812355?s=20
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    Foxy said:

    I think the LDs will do well in C and A but not win.

    LDs are bumping along with our core vote, and about as much again that is willing to vote tactically if given a chance. It has been like that for most of my life apart from 1997-2015 when we had about 50 seats. I don't think that we will see that again for a while, but I wouldn't expect to go down much either in the popular vote. Boundaries may do for some MPs.

    Normal politics isn't happening at the moment, but will return, and few things are as perennial as an LD bar chart.

    If the boundaries do end up being redrawn as per the current proposals, then I wouldn't give much for Tim Farron's chances - and he's the very last Lib Dem MP surviving anywhere between Oxford and Edinburgh. How sad.
    I think he is also the last surviving LD MP form the coalition time, But I might be wrong.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    edited June 2021

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The LDs second rate performance in the local elections around those parts suggests that an upset isn't in the offing, but quite honestly who knows in this day and age?

    Ultimately, the LDs need (as they've always done) some issue that "the big two" don't care about, or it's something they both agree on.

    Back in 2005, that was the Iraq war. It could have been Europe (if the LDs had gone the David Penhaligon route) in the mid-2010s.

    Right now, it's *maybe* being a bit more aggressive at easing lockdowns. But they really don't have that "thing" that resonates.

    For the record, I think that's the Greens problem in the UK too. If Labour and the Conservatives were all in favour of heavy industry and cars and coal, then they'd clearly be well positioned. But the Conservative government has pretty impeccable Green credentials, so the Greens need to be so extreme, they're practically Extinction Rebellion, and while that works in Brighton and Bristol, it's not clear where else it resonates.

    Of course, maybe that thing is Europe and the EU. Maybe their role is to say "wouldn't it be great it if we were closer to and nicer to those nice Europeans".

    Or maybe their role right now is to argue for fiscal restraint, and to warn against big government causing inflation. There's probably a niche there.
    The Greens have a better brand and a better identity. It is an easier sell, all round

    "What did you vote?!

    "Oh I voted Green, OF COURSE" = you really care about animals, flowers, the planet, big things, being nice to small things, saving nature, windmills, villages, kittens, probably the EU, and you dislike massive nuclear power stations, war, dying swans tangled in plastic, massive factories belching smoke. It's a statement of who you are and it's positive


    If you answer

    "Oh I voted Lib Dems" you will get puzzled looks. You can't say "of course" because no one knows why anyone would vote Lib Dem. Who is their leader? What are their policies?

    The Greens will supersede them
    Well, I would vote for almost any political party over the Greens, because they are just like BLM. Only, you're actually voting for them and trying to give them power.

    You're voting for a party explicitly trying to put back progress.

    In Germany - by contrast - you're voting for a centrist party that is a lot more sensible than the SPD or Linke.

    The LibDems succeeded by having local power and then leveraging that for parliamentary success. And people saw their local council was boringly run by the LibDems and it was OK.

    I think that's a hard route for the Greens.

    I can see the LDs and the Greens cancelling each other out for the Middle Class, not Lab or Con, vote. But I struggle to see a route to power that does not include local government success for the Greens. And I struggle to see them as successful local custodians.
    My hunch is that the Greens will moderate - like the Greens in Germany -as they get an actual whiff of real power. This is what generally happens to parties, after all

    And replacing the Lib Dems is not that hard, given the great power in the Green brand, worldwide

    And they should become the party of Rejoin, of course (if they're not already?)

    I can see that getting 10-20% of the vote in the UK, this decade. Maybe more
    Not sure you guys know a lot of Green activists, as I do. I totally agree that they are seen as the reasonable non-Tory vote. But the activists are not very interested in power - much like the Tory hardliners, they are deeply into culture war, with wokeness a subtext to general alternative lifestyle. I like the ones I know, but they're not really trying to replace anyone, just win some local elections and speak up for a green world. That's why, even though they totally agreed with Corbynism, they weren't interested in joining Labour or even forming a pact with them, since Labour is full of earnest types with zero counter-culture interest. Corbyn and McDonnell are far more similar in temperament to Starmer or indeed Theresa May than they are to a typical green activist.
    Then they need to be overtaken by a genius Hitler-type character. As Hitler did to the NSDAP, turning them into the much more electorally successful Nazis, and casting off "the nutters" so I will do to the Greens

    Sorry, someone should do this to the Greens. Not me. Soz. Easy mistake to make
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080

    Squeeze on Pfizer vaccine supplies casts further doubt on 21 June reopening

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/squeeze-pfizer-vaccine-supplies-doubt-21-june-reopening-1046212

    Get on the phone to sid and get that warehouse full of AZN jabs moving product.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    edited June 2021
    Foxy said:

    Incidentally, I think the new constituency of Oadby, Wigston and Blaby looks a realistic LD target.

    The boundaries won’t happen. Most likely that, along with scores of others, will go through near infinite iterations and end up entirely unrecognisable from what was originally proposed. Oadby will end up being a salient of Nottingham South. Wigston a pene-exclave of Birmingham Ladywood.

    I have no evidence of this, other than experience of the way this shit tends to play out.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,876
    Leon said:

    I have voted Green, twice

    What makes me think they are destined for success is that I voted for them positively. Whereas my votes for the Lib Dems have been tactical (I don't really approve of them, but they are better than Labour), and my other non-Tory votes have been protest (UKIP for the EP) or a joke (Count Binface, Lozza Fox, etc etc)

    Whereas the odd occasion I have voted Green it is when I am outraged at the despoliation of the planet. When I think about microplastics, or litter, or the pollution of our sacred rivers, or disposable nappies, or diesel fumes, or whales choked by plastic bags - I get this primal anger and I think Fuck it: GREEN, SAVE THE WORLD

    I am sure millions feel the same daily. in the UK. Even the apolitical. This is a mighty human emotion and if the Greens learn to truly harness it - like windfarms harvesting the gale! - they will do very well indeed

    But drop the ultra-Wokeness, PLEASE

    Aren't you with your globe trotting heavily responsible for that despoliation of the planet? Asking for a friend
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited June 2021

    Foxy said:

    Incidentally, I think the new constituency of Oadby, Wigston and Blaby looks a realistic LD target.

    The boundaries won’t happen. Most likely that, along with scores of others, will go through near infinite iterations and end up entirely unrecognisable from what was originally proposed. Oadby will end up being a salient of Nottingham South. Wigston a pene-exclave of Birmingham Ladywood.

    I have no evidence of this, other than experience of the way this shit tends to play out.
    But hasn't Parliament already approved the new boundaries, albeit with a bit of wiggle room BEFORE they were recommended. Different from past situations?

    EDIT - AIUI the commission(s) may make revisions (and likely will make some) but NOT the Commons?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,030

    Squeeze on Pfizer vaccine supplies casts further doubt on 21 June reopening

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/squeeze-pfizer-vaccine-supplies-doubt-21-june-reopening-1046212

    Government plans Up the Junction?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,202
    BigRich said:

    Foxy said:

    I think the LDs will do well in C and A but not win.

    LDs are bumping along with our core vote, and about as much again that is willing to vote tactically if given a chance. It has been like that for most of my life apart from 1997-2015 when we had about 50 seats. I don't think that we will see that again for a while, but I wouldn't expect to go down much either in the popular vote. Boundaries may do for some MPs.

    Normal politics isn't happening at the moment, but will return, and few things are as perennial as an LD bar chart.

    If the boundaries do end up being redrawn as per the current proposals, then I wouldn't give much for Tim Farron's chances - and he's the very last Lib Dem MP surviving anywhere between Oxford and Edinburgh. How sad.
    I think he is also the last surviving LD MP form the coalition time, But I might be wrong.
    Ummm: Ed Davey was in the Cabinet during the coalition :smile:

    Alistair Carmichael has been continually in Parliament since the coalition.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,202

    Squeeze on Pfizer vaccine supplies casts further doubt on 21 June reopening

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/squeeze-pfizer-vaccine-supplies-doubt-21-june-reopening-1046212

    How long before some EU gloating?
    I think they're so far behind, that they're probably not going to want to draw attention to vaccines. That being said... they were right to get a big Pfizer order in in March, and we didn't bother because we expected Novavax to arrive.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Leon said:

    Thinking about this - Greens being invaded by Wokeness - it occurs to me that the coming decade might be highly prosperous for the right wing in the UK (and maybe the USA, if they can find a decent candidate)

    The Left is consuming itself in anger with this insane Woke Shit. See the Trans wars in Scotland.

    Most people are bemused and dismayed, or outright horrified - the more they learn. Yet the Left is oblivious to the danger, they hurtle on to ever greater craziness, they can't help it, they are in the throes of a mad religious frenzy: Savanorola stands in the piazza, burning the heretics, and the lunatic moaning gets louder

    In contrast, the Tories (and Republicans?) will seem like the only sane option. Another decade of power beckons

    As long as the tories can get rid of the woke stuff, things may be ok. The tory woke problem is centred around Carrie Symonds, so it isn't going to be easy for them.

    Less sure about the republicans, to be honest. They aren't winning the popular vote and seem to have descended in to madness.



  • Interesting - analyst @Mij_Europe thinks there’s an almost 1 in 3 chance of a trade war between UK and EU

    And this *could* involve tariffs, restricting access to single market for fish exports and even interruptions to Jersey or GB electricity supply


    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1403051246576193550

    Not a hope in hell. Germany owns them and won’t see its economy crash.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,030

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The LDs second rate performance in the local elections around those parts suggests that an upset isn't in the offing, but quite honestly who knows in this day and age?

    Ultimately, the LDs need (as they've always done) some issue that "the big two" don't care about, or it's something they both agree on.

    Back in 2005, that was the Iraq war. It could have been Europe (if the LDs had gone the David Penhaligon route) in the mid-2010s.

    Right now, it's *maybe* being a bit more aggressive at easing lockdowns. But they really don't have that "thing" that resonates.

    For the record, I think that's the Greens problem in the UK too. If Labour and the Conservatives were all in favour of heavy industry and cars and coal, then they'd clearly be well positioned. But the Conservative government has pretty impeccable Green credentials, so the Greens need to be so extreme, they're practically Extinction Rebellion, and while that works in Brighton and Bristol, it's not clear where else it resonates.

    Of course, maybe that thing is Europe and the EU. Maybe their role is to say "wouldn't it be great it if we were closer to and nicer to those nice Europeans".

    Or maybe their role right now is to argue for fiscal restraint, and to warn against big government causing inflation. There's probably a niche there.
    The Greens have a better brand and a better identity. It is an easier sell, all round

    "What did you vote?!

    "Oh I voted Green, OF COURSE" = you really care about animals, flowers, the planet, big things, being nice to small things, saving nature, windmills, villages, kittens, probably the EU, and you dislike massive nuclear power stations, war, dying swans tangled in plastic, massive factories belching smoke. It's a statement of who you are and it's positive


    If you answer

    "Oh I voted Lib Dems" you will get puzzled looks. You can't say "of course" because no one knows why anyone would vote Lib Dem. Who is their leader? What are their policies?

    The Greens will supersede them
    Well, I would vote for almost any political party over the Greens, because they are just like BLM. Only, you're actually voting for them and trying to give them power.

    You're voting for a party explicitly trying to put back progress.

    In Germany - by contrast - you're voting for a centrist party that is a lot more sensible than the SPD or Linke.

    The LibDems succeeded by having local power and then leveraging that for parliamentary success. And people saw their local council was boringly run by the LibDems and it was OK.

    I think that's a hard route for the Greens.

    I can see the LDs and the Greens cancelling each other out for the Middle Class, not Lab or Con, vote. But I struggle to see a route to power that does not include local government success for the Greens. And I struggle to see them as successful local custodians.
    My hunch is that the Greens will moderate - like the Greens in Germany -as they get an actual whiff of real power. This is what generally happens to parties, after all

    And replacing the Lib Dems is not that hard, given the great power in the Green brand, worldwide

    And they should become the party of Rejoin, of course (if they're not already?)

    I can see that getting 10-20% of the vote in the UK, this decade. Maybe more
    Not sure you guys know a lot of Green activists, as I do. I totally agree that they are seen as the reasonable non-Tory vote. But the activists are not very interested in power - much like the Tory hardliners, they are deeply into culture war, with wokeness a subtext to general alternative lifestyle. I like the ones I know, but they're not really trying to replace anyone, just win some local elections and speak up for a green world. That's why, even though they totally agreed with Corbynism, they weren't interested in joining Labour or even forming a pact with them, since Labour is full of earnest types with zero counter-culture interest. Corbyn and McDonnell are far more similar in temperament to Starmer or indeed Theresa May than they are to a typical green activist.
    It sounds like the Greens you know are a feckless bunch who will achieve nothing.

    A few sharp dressed eco-authoritarians telling it how it is is what is needed to shake things up.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    I have voted Green, twice

    What makes me think they are destined for success is that I voted for them positively. Whereas my votes for the Lib Dems have been tactical (I don't really approve of them, but they are better than Labour), and my other non-Tory votes have been protest (UKIP for the EP) or a joke (Count Binface, Lozza Fox, etc etc)

    Whereas the odd occasion I have voted Green it is when I am outraged at the despoliation of the planet. When I think about microplastics, or litter, or the pollution of our sacred rivers, or disposable nappies, or diesel fumes, or whales choked by plastic bags - I get this primal anger and I think Fuck it: GREEN, SAVE THE WORLD

    I am sure millions feel the same daily. in the UK. Even the apolitical. This is a mighty human emotion and if the Greens learn to truly harness it - like windfarms harvesting the gale! - they will do very well indeed

    But drop the ultra-Wokeness, PLEASE

    Aren't you with your globe trotting heavily responsible for that despoliation of the planet? Asking for a friend

    yes, probably

    I justify it by saying I evangelise the state of nature to the world, but it is a bit feeble.

    We are all guilty hypocrites when it comes to Green Issues. And this is part of my point. Any human with a conscience feels guilty at what we have done to Planet Earth, and guilt is a super-powerful human emotion. I believe guilt explains cave art and human sacrifice, it has certainly powered much religion (where is Christianity without the guilt of sin?) and now it fuels Wokeness (the guilt of race, tho they can fuck off with that).

    If the Greens successfully plug into the electoral mains supply of guilt va-va-voom
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Squeeze on Pfizer vaccine supplies casts further doubt on 21 June reopening

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/squeeze-pfizer-vaccine-supplies-doubt-21-june-reopening-1046212

    Get on the phone to sid and get that warehouse full of AZN jabs moving product.
    Too late, the Government's decided not to offer it to the under 40s.

    Once the middle-aged have had their second jabs then I imagine they'll start donating the entire output of the AZ plants to Covax. This will ensure that it takes well into the Autumn to get the under 40s (including, after a deliberately lengthy spell of handwringing, secondary school kids) double-vaxxed, by which juncture the booster jabs, bad weather, flu season and various other excuses can be deployed to keep masks and social distancing and the rest of the bullshit going until the middle of next year - whilst SAGE works on the necessary arguments and accompanying catastrophist models to enforce them forever.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Foxy said:

    Incidentally, I think the new constituency of Oadby, Wigston and Blaby looks a realistic LD target.

    The boundaries won’t happen. Most likely that, along with scores of others, will go through near infinite iterations and end up entirely unrecognisable from what was originally proposed. Oadby will end up being a salient of Nottingham South. Wigston a pene-exclave of Birmingham Ladywood.

    I have no evidence of this, other than experience of the way this shit tends to play out.
    But hasn't Parliament already approved the new boundaries, albeit with a bit of wiggle room BEFORE they were recommended. Different from past situations?

    EDIT - AIUI the commission(s) may make revisions (and likely will make some) but NOT the Commons?
    Sure. But expect a dog’s breakfast if indeed there is any form of meal at all. Blaby will end up as a remote, slightly posher, satellite of Glasgow Hillhead.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,612
    rcs1000 said:

    Squeeze on Pfizer vaccine supplies casts further doubt on 21 June reopening

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/squeeze-pfizer-vaccine-supplies-doubt-21-june-reopening-1046212

    How long before some EU gloating?
    I think they're so far behind, that they're probably not going to want to draw attention to vaccines. That being said... they were right to get a big Pfizer order in in March, and we didn't bother because we expected Novavax to arrive.
    Is there any update on Novavax and Valneva ?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,725

    Interesting - analyst @Mij_Europe thinks there’s an almost 1 in 3 chance of a trade war between UK and EU

    And this *could* involve tariffs, restricting access to single market for fish exports and even interruptions to Jersey or GB electricity supply


    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1403051246576193550

    Not a hope in hell. Germany owns them and won’t see its economy crash.
    Well , there is a 2 in 3 chance it won't happen accord in to the article.. faites vos jeux!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080
    edited June 2021

    Squeeze on Pfizer vaccine supplies casts further doubt on 21 June reopening

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/squeeze-pfizer-vaccine-supplies-doubt-21-june-reopening-1046212

    Get on the phone to sid and get that warehouse full of AZN jabs moving product.
    Too late, the Government's decided not to offer it to the under 40s.

    Once the middle-aged have had their second jabs then I imagine they'll start donating the entire output of the AZ plants to Covax. This will ensure that it takes well into the Autumn to get the under 40s (including, after a deliberately lengthy spell of handwringing, secondary school kids) double-vaxxed, by which juncture the booster jabs, bad weather, flu season and various other excuses can be deployed to keep masks and social distancing and the rest of the bullshit going until the middle of next year - whilst SAGE works on the necessary arguments and accompanying catastrophist models to enforce them forever.
    Government need to be bold. Offer AZN to anybody who wants it, come tomorrow, we will give out 10k at such and such location.

    They will be queuing round the block.

    The risk assessment has now changed with Indian covid.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    One on topic thought:

    Will the Green vote go up or down?

    The obvious answer is down as the LD will consolidate the vote with there bar graphs, 'showing an only the LD can win here!!'

    But will it work on the greens, here in this by-election, most green votes did not expect there candidate to win last time, but voted green anyway, fresh of there relative success in May, perhaps they can grow there vote even while the LD try to squeeze, or maybe not.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    rcs1000 said:

    Squeeze on Pfizer vaccine supplies casts further doubt on 21 June reopening

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/squeeze-pfizer-vaccine-supplies-doubt-21-june-reopening-1046212

    How long before some EU gloating?
    I think they're so far behind, that they're probably not going to want to draw attention to vaccines. That being said... they were right to get a big Pfizer order in in March, and we didn't bother because we expected Novavax to arrive.
    Any idea in which decade that might finally happen?

    Oh well, it's academic: it won't be soon enough to be of any conceivable bloody use to us, no doubt.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Anyone think Macron has got a bit rattled by that poll in France allegedly showing that Johnson was surprisingly popular there?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Been a while since Mrs May has been on the front page of the Telegraph:

    Friday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “May: Global Britain is closed for business”

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1403097176855691266?s=20
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Squeeze on Pfizer vaccine supplies casts further doubt on 21 June reopening

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/squeeze-pfizer-vaccine-supplies-doubt-21-june-reopening-1046212

    Get on the phone to sid and get that warehouse full of AZN jabs moving product.
    Too late, the Government's decided not to offer it to the under 40s.

    Once the middle-aged have had their second jabs then I imagine they'll start donating the entire output of the AZ plants to Covax. This will ensure that it takes well into the Autumn to get the under 40s (including, after a deliberately lengthy spell of handwringing, secondary school kids) double-vaxxed, by which juncture the booster jabs, bad weather, flu season and various other excuses can be deployed to keep masks and social distancing and the rest of the bullshit going until the middle of next year - whilst SAGE works on the necessary arguments and accompanying catastrophist models to enforce them forever.
    Government need to be bold. Offer AZN to anybody who wants it, come tomorrow, we will give out 10k at such and such location.

    They will be queuing round the block.
    1. They're "following the science" so they daren't
    2. They don't want to anyway. Drawing this thing out gives them additional excuses never to cut the chains
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080

    Been a while since Mrs May has been on the front page of the Telegraph:

    Friday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “May: Global Britain is closed for business”

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1403097176855691266?s=20

    She really is very bitter isn't she.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,876
    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    I have voted Green, twice

    What makes me think they are destined for success is that I voted for them positively. Whereas my votes for the Lib Dems have been tactical (I don't really approve of them, but they are better than Labour), and my other non-Tory votes have been protest (UKIP for the EP) or a joke (Count Binface, Lozza Fox, etc etc)

    Whereas the odd occasion I have voted Green it is when I am outraged at the despoliation of the planet. When I think about microplastics, or litter, or the pollution of our sacred rivers, or disposable nappies, or diesel fumes, or whales choked by plastic bags - I get this primal anger and I think Fuck it: GREEN, SAVE THE WORLD

    I am sure millions feel the same daily. in the UK. Even the apolitical. This is a mighty human emotion and if the Greens learn to truly harness it - like windfarms harvesting the gale! - they will do very well indeed

    But drop the ultra-Wokeness, PLEASE

    Aren't you with your globe trotting heavily responsible for that despoliation of the planet? Asking for a friend

    yes, probably

    I justify it by saying I evangelise the state of nature to the world, but it is a bit feeble.

    We are all guilty hypocrites when it comes to Green Issues. And this is part of my point. Any human with a conscience feels guilty at what we have done to Planet Earth, and guilt is a super-powerful human emotion. I believe guilt explains cave art and human sacrifice, it has certainly powered much religion (where is Christianity without the guilt of sin?) and now it fuels Wokeness (the guilt of race, tho they can fuck off with that).

    If the Greens successfully plug into the electoral mains supply of guilt va-va-voom
    I don't feel guilty particularly, I dont drive, I don't go on many foreign holidays 2 in the last 20 years. I don't consume much, I don't buy lots of tat I don't need. Most of those who become green evangelicals seem to be people like you that have done all those things and now they have done them want to feel virtue for themselves by lecturing the rest of us about how we shouldn't do them. People who actually won't be affected that much because they are insulated by wealth if the green agenda comes in
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,202

    rcs1000 said:

    Squeeze on Pfizer vaccine supplies casts further doubt on 21 June reopening

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/squeeze-pfizer-vaccine-supplies-doubt-21-june-reopening-1046212

    How long before some EU gloating?
    I think they're so far behind, that they're probably not going to want to draw attention to vaccines. That being said... they were right to get a big Pfizer order in in March, and we didn't bother because we expected Novavax to arrive.
    Is there any update on Novavax and Valneva ?
    The problem with Novavax is that the vaccine is fantastic, but the company has no experience building massive vaccine mass production facilities and dealing with a complex supply chain. My gut is that neither Valneva or Novavax will arrive in meaningful quantities until after the pandemic is already over.

    The same is true for the EU and CureVac: they'll have 200 million doses arriving after they've vaccinated everyone.

    It is, however, probably good news for the rest of the world, as these doses can be sold to them.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    Squeeze on Pfizer vaccine supplies casts further doubt on 21 June reopening

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/squeeze-pfizer-vaccine-supplies-doubt-21-june-reopening-1046212

    Get on the phone to sid and get that warehouse full of AZN jabs moving product.
    Too late, the Government's decided not to offer it to the under 40s.

    Once the middle-aged have had their second jabs then I imagine they'll start donating the entire output of the AZ plants to Covax. This will ensure that it takes well into the Autumn to get the under 40s (including, after a deliberately lengthy spell of handwringing, secondary school kids) double-vaxxed, by which juncture the booster jabs, bad weather, flu season and various other excuses can be deployed to keep masks and social distancing and the rest of the bullshit going until the middle of next year - whilst SAGE works on the necessary arguments and accompanying catastrophist models to enforce them forever.
    Government need to be bold. Offer AZN to anybody who wants it, come tomorrow, we will give out 10k at such and such location.

    They will be queuing round the block.

    The risk assessment has now changed with Indian covid.
    Agreed, though I don't know how many AZ shots there are ready, it does seem a better idea to vaccinate the group that has the biggest number of cases and fasted rise, now, rather than bringing the waiting time for a second jab down for 45 year olds.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Thinking about this - Greens being invaded by Wokeness - it occurs to me that the coming decade might be highly prosperous for the right wing in the UK (and maybe the USA, if they can find a decent candidate)

    The Left is consuming itself in anger with this insane Woke Shit. See the Trans wars in Scotland.

    Most people are bemused and dismayed, or outright horrified - the more they learn. Yet the Left is oblivious to the danger, they hurtle on to ever greater craziness, they can't help it, they are in the throes of a mad religious frenzy: Savanorola stands in the piazza, burning the heretics, and the lunatic moaning gets louder

    In contrast, the Tories (and Republicans?) will seem like the only sane option. Another decade of power beckons

    As long as the tories can get rid of the woke stuff, things may be ok. The tory woke problem is centred around Carrie Symonds, so it isn't going to be easy for them.

    Less sure about the republicans, to be honest. They aren't winning the popular vote and seem to have descended in to madness.



    That's the vegan diet, cold homes and no more exotic foreign holidays stuff.

    No-one wants that shit, and the Tories are onto a loser if they think they'll vote for it.

    Tech, tech and more tech. Only way out.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    alex_ said:

    Anyone think Macron has got a bit rattled by that poll in France allegedly showing that Johnson was surprisingly popular there?

    No. Because Boris Johnson is NOT gonna run for President of France, at least not THIS decade.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080
    The.government were bold when previously faced with rising cases and restricted supply, moving to the much criticized 12 week gap. They need to be bold again, fire up the Quattro full of AZN.....
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,612
    edited June 2021

    Been a while since Mrs May has been on the front page of the Telegraph:

    Friday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “May: Global Britain is closed for business”

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1403097176855691266?s=20

    She really is very bitter isn't she.
    So bitter she can't see she's insulting everyone in the private sector who is currently working.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Been a while since Mrs May has been on the front page of the Telegraph:

    Friday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “May: Global Britain is closed for business”

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1403097176855691266?s=20

    She really is very bitter isn't she.
    No. She has constituents who work (or not) at Heathrow.

    Do you think the government's travel policy is beyond reproach?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487

    Been a while since Mrs May has been on the front page of the Telegraph:

    Friday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “May: Global Britain is closed for business”

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1403097176855691266?s=20

    She really is very bitter isn't she.
    Not really? I mean, well, yeah maybe a little bit bitter but just a drop in the ocean next to Ted Heath.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,202
    BigRich said:

    One on topic thought:

    Will the Green vote go up or down?

    The obvious answer is down as the LD will consolidate the vote with there bar graphs, 'showing an only the LD can win here!!'

    But will it work on the greens, here in this by-election, most green votes did not expect there candidate to win last time, but voted green anyway, fresh of there relative success in May, perhaps they can grow there vote even while the LD try to squeeze, or maybe not.

    That's an excellent question.

    My gut is that the Green vote will be squeezed in C&A, because that's what usually happens at by-elections.

    But the Greens really should be throwing everything at this. If they want to supplant the LDs, they need to start outpolling them in things like byelections.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080
    BigRich said:

    Squeeze on Pfizer vaccine supplies casts further doubt on 21 June reopening

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/squeeze-pfizer-vaccine-supplies-doubt-21-june-reopening-1046212

    Get on the phone to sid and get that warehouse full of AZN jabs moving product.
    Too late, the Government's decided not to offer it to the under 40s.

    Once the middle-aged have had their second jabs then I imagine they'll start donating the entire output of the AZ plants to Covax. This will ensure that it takes well into the Autumn to get the under 40s (including, after a deliberately lengthy spell of handwringing, secondary school kids) double-vaxxed, by which juncture the booster jabs, bad weather, flu season and various other excuses can be deployed to keep masks and social distancing and the rest of the bullshit going until the middle of next year - whilst SAGE works on the necessary arguments and accompanying catastrophist models to enforce them forever.
    Government need to be bold. Offer AZN to anybody who wants it, come tomorrow, we will give out 10k at such and such location.

    They will be queuing round the block.

    The risk assessment has now changed with Indian covid.
    Agreed, though I don't know how many AZ shots there are ready, it does seem a better idea to vaccinate the group that has the biggest number of cases and fasted rise, now, rather than bringing the waiting time for a second jab down for 45 year olds.
    5m doses are sitting in a warehouse.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,202

    BigRich said:

    Squeeze on Pfizer vaccine supplies casts further doubt on 21 June reopening

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/squeeze-pfizer-vaccine-supplies-doubt-21-june-reopening-1046212

    Get on the phone to sid and get that warehouse full of AZN jabs moving product.
    Too late, the Government's decided not to offer it to the under 40s.

    Once the middle-aged have had their second jabs then I imagine they'll start donating the entire output of the AZ plants to Covax. This will ensure that it takes well into the Autumn to get the under 40s (including, after a deliberately lengthy spell of handwringing, secondary school kids) double-vaxxed, by which juncture the booster jabs, bad weather, flu season and various other excuses can be deployed to keep masks and social distancing and the rest of the bullshit going until the middle of next year - whilst SAGE works on the necessary arguments and accompanying catastrophist models to enforce them forever.
    Government need to be bold. Offer AZN to anybody who wants it, come tomorrow, we will give out 10k at such and such location.

    They will be queuing round the block.

    The risk assessment has now changed with Indian covid.
    Agreed, though I don't know how many AZ shots there are ready, it does seem a better idea to vaccinate the group that has the biggest number of cases and fasted rise, now, rather than bringing the waiting time for a second jab down for 45 year olds.
    5m doses are sitting in a warehouse.
    I believe it's nearly 6m now, as more doses are delivered by AZ every day.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,202

    alex_ said:

    Anyone think Macron has got a bit rattled by that poll in France allegedly showing that Johnson was surprisingly popular there?

    No. Because Boris Johnson is NOT gonna run for President of France, at least not THIS decade.
    Is there any issue with Boris having both jobs simultaneously?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080
    rcs1000 said:

    BigRich said:

    Squeeze on Pfizer vaccine supplies casts further doubt on 21 June reopening

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/squeeze-pfizer-vaccine-supplies-doubt-21-june-reopening-1046212

    Get on the phone to sid and get that warehouse full of AZN jabs moving product.
    Too late, the Government's decided not to offer it to the under 40s.

    Once the middle-aged have had their second jabs then I imagine they'll start donating the entire output of the AZ plants to Covax. This will ensure that it takes well into the Autumn to get the under 40s (including, after a deliberately lengthy spell of handwringing, secondary school kids) double-vaxxed, by which juncture the booster jabs, bad weather, flu season and various other excuses can be deployed to keep masks and social distancing and the rest of the bullshit going until the middle of next year - whilst SAGE works on the necessary arguments and accompanying catastrophist models to enforce them forever.
    Government need to be bold. Offer AZN to anybody who wants it, come tomorrow, we will give out 10k at such and such location.

    They will be queuing round the block.

    The risk assessment has now changed with Indian covid.
    Agreed, though I don't know how many AZ shots there are ready, it does seem a better idea to vaccinate the group that has the biggest number of cases and fasted rise, now, rather than bringing the waiting time for a second jab down for 45 year olds.
    5m doses are sitting in a warehouse.
    I believe it's nearly 6m now, as more doses are delivered by AZ every day.
    Bear a thought for Colin who is in charge of storage....he must be pulling his hair out trying to find room to store it all...i have this vision of just as they find some more space, now stuffing them in the fridge in the canteen, another lorry appears...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,375

    Been a while since Mrs May has been on the front page of the Telegraph:

    Friday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “May: Global Britain is closed for business”

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1403097176855691266?s=20

    She really is very bitter isn't she.
    She has a fair point.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Squeeze on Pfizer vaccine supplies casts further doubt on 21 June reopening

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/squeeze-pfizer-vaccine-supplies-doubt-21-june-reopening-1046212

    How long before some EU gloating?
    I think they're so far behind, that they're probably not going to want to draw attention to vaccines. That being said... they were right to get a big Pfizer order in in March, and we didn't bother because we expected Novavax to arrive.
    Is there any update on Novavax and Valneva ?
    The problem with Novavax is that the vaccine is fantastic, but the company has no experience building massive vaccine mass production facilities and dealing with a complex supply chain. My gut is that neither Valneva or Novavax will arrive in meaningful quantities until after the pandemic is already over.

    The same is true for the EU and CureVac: they'll have 200 million doses arriving after they've vaccinated everyone.

    It is, however, probably good news for the rest of the world, as these doses can be sold to them.
    To be fair, Valneva was always scheduled not to put in an appearance until the back end of the year anyway. It's Novavax that's been the real disappointment. The investment that has been to Britain what Sanofi-GSK was to France. A dud. Although that, of course, is why Kate Bingham placed bets on so many horses in the first place.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Foxy said:

    Incidentally, I think the new constituency of Oadby, Wigston and Blaby looks a realistic LD target.

    The boundaries won’t happen. Most likely that, along with scores of others, will go through near infinite iterations and end up entirely unrecognisable from what was originally proposed. Oadby will end up being a salient of Nottingham South. Wigston a pene-exclave of Birmingham Ladywood.

    I have no evidence of this, other than experience of the way this shit tends to play out.
    But hasn't Parliament already approved the new boundaries, albeit with a bit of wiggle room BEFORE they were recommended. Different from past situations?

    EDIT - AIUI the commission(s) may make revisions (and likely will make some) but NOT the Commons?
    Sure. But expect a dog’s breakfast if indeed there is any form of meal at all. Blaby will end up as a remote, slightly posher, satellite of Glasgow Hillhead.
    Perhaps, IF someone makes a reasoned submission to the commission to that effect. Which of course (in this example) will NOT happen.

    Commission will NOT make changes to their recommendations just for funsies. And for every suggestion to change something in a major way, likely to be push back from those who would be ill-affected by direct OR indirect consequences of revisions.

    Which is my logic for thinking that changes to recommended boundaries will be pretty minimal.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,708

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The LDs second rate performance in the local elections around those parts suggests that an upset isn't in the offing, but quite honestly who knows in this day and age?

    Ultimately, the LDs need (as they've always done) some issue that "the big two" don't care about, or it's something they both agree on.

    Back in 2005, that was the Iraq war. It could have been Europe (if the LDs had gone the David Penhaligon route) in the mid-2010s.

    Right now, it's *maybe* being a bit more aggressive at easing lockdowns. But they really don't have that "thing" that resonates.

    For the record, I think that's the Greens problem in the UK too. If Labour and the Conservatives were all in favour of heavy industry and cars and coal, then they'd clearly be well positioned. But the Conservative government has pretty impeccable Green credentials, so the Greens need to be so extreme, they're practically Extinction Rebellion, and while that works in Brighton and Bristol, it's not clear where else it resonates.

    Of course, maybe that thing is Europe and the EU. Maybe their role is to say "wouldn't it be great it if we were closer to and nicer to those nice Europeans".

    Or maybe their role right now is to argue for fiscal restraint, and to warn against big government causing inflation. There's probably a niche there.
    The Greens have a better brand and a better identity. It is an easier sell, all round

    "What did you vote?!

    "Oh I voted Green, OF COURSE" = you really care about animals, flowers, the planet, big things, being nice to small things, saving nature, windmills, villages, kittens, probably the EU, and you dislike massive nuclear power stations, war, dying swans tangled in plastic, massive factories belching smoke. It's a statement of who you are and it's positive


    If you answer

    "Oh I voted Lib Dems" you will get puzzled looks. You can't say "of course" because no one knows why anyone would vote Lib Dem. Who is their leader? What are their policies?

    The Greens will supersede them
    Well, I would vote for almost any political party over the Greens, because they are just like BLM. Only, you're actually voting for them and trying to give them power.

    You're voting for a party explicitly trying to put back progress.

    In Germany - by contrast - you're voting for a centrist party that is a lot more sensible than the SPD or Linke.

    The LibDems succeeded by having local power and then leveraging that for parliamentary success. And people saw their local council was boringly run by the LibDems and it was OK.

    I think that's a hard route for the Greens.

    I can see the LDs and the Greens cancelling each other out for the Middle Class, not Lab or Con, vote. But I struggle to see a route to power that does not include local government success for the Greens. And I struggle to see them as successful local custodians.
    My hunch is that the Greens will moderate - like the Greens in Germany -as they get an actual whiff of real power. This is what generally happens to parties, after all

    And replacing the Lib Dems is not that hard, given the great power in the Green brand, worldwide

    And they should become the party of Rejoin, of course (if they're not already?)

    I can see that getting 10-20% of the vote in the UK, this decade. Maybe more
    Not sure you guys know a lot of Green activists, as I do. I totally agree that they are seen as the reasonable non-Tory vote. But the activists are not very interested in power - much like the Tory hardliners, they are deeply into culture war, with wokeness a subtext to general alternative lifestyle. I like the ones I know, but they're not really trying to replace anyone, just win some local elections and speak up for a green world. That's why, even though they totally agreed with Corbynism, they weren't interested in joining Labour or even forming a pact with them, since Labour is full of earnest types with zero counter-culture interest. Corbyn and McDonnell are far more similar in temperament to Starmer or indeed Theresa May than they are to a typical green activist.
    Yes, I agree. Many will vote tactically, but the counter-culture of Green activists is not one that is that bothered by FPTP national politics. There is a light green counter culture element to the LDs too, more interested in promoting policies and issues.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,098
    alex_ said:

    Anyone think Macron has got a bit rattled by that poll in France allegedly showing that Johnson was surprisingly popular there?

    The poll showed Boris was popular with Les Republicains voters and voters for Le Pen's party but he was unpopular with Socialists and voters for Macron's En Marche party so not really that surprising and largely along party lines and enthusiasm for the EU or not
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    Been a while since Mrs May has been on the front page of the Telegraph:

    Friday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “May: Global Britain is closed for business”

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1403097176855691266?s=20

    I cant open the link, what is she winging about?

    does she what more lockdown or less? or is it something else?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    I have voted Green, twice

    What makes me think they are destined for success is that I voted for them positively. Whereas my votes for the Lib Dems have been tactical (I don't really approve of them, but they are better than Labour), and my other non-Tory votes have been protest (UKIP for the EP) or a joke (Count Binface, Lozza Fox, etc etc)

    Whereas the odd occasion I have voted Green it is when I am outraged at the despoliation of the planet. When I think about microplastics, or litter, or the pollution of our sacred rivers, or disposable nappies, or diesel fumes, or whales choked by plastic bags - I get this primal anger and I think Fuck it: GREEN, SAVE THE WORLD

    I am sure millions feel the same daily. in the UK. Even the apolitical. This is a mighty human emotion and if the Greens learn to truly harness it - like windfarms harvesting the gale! - they will do very well indeed

    But drop the ultra-Wokeness, PLEASE

    Aren't you with your globe trotting heavily responsible for that despoliation of the planet? Asking for a friend

    yes, probably

    I justify it by saying I evangelise the state of nature to the world, but it is a bit feeble.

    We are all guilty hypocrites when it comes to Green Issues. And this is part of my point. Any human with a conscience feels guilty at what we have done to Planet Earth, and guilt is a super-powerful human emotion. I believe guilt explains cave art and human sacrifice, it has certainly powered much religion (where is Christianity without the guilt of sin?) and now it fuels Wokeness (the guilt of race, tho they can fuck off with that).

    If the Greens successfully plug into the electoral mains supply of guilt va-va-voom
    I don't feel guilty particularly, I dont drive, I don't go on many foreign holidays 2 in the last 20 years. I don't consume much, I don't buy lots of tat I don't need. Most of those who become green evangelicals seem to be people like you that have done all those things and now they have done them want to feel virtue for themselves by lecturing the rest of us about how we shouldn't do them. People who actually won't be affected that much because they are insulated by wealth if the green agenda comes in
    Point of order: I never lecture

    I am many bad things: a womanizer, a boozer, a layabout, an (ex) druggie, a PB-er, a white man, a heterosexual, a Tory voter, a friend of terrible criminals, but I am not a sanctimonious hypocrite. Can't stand em
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,585
    edited June 2021
    BigRich said:

    One on topic thought:

    Will the Green vote go up or down?

    The obvious answer is down as the LD will consolidate the vote with there bar graphs, 'showing an only the LD can win here!!'

    But will it work on the greens, here in this by-election, most green votes did not expect there candidate to win last time, but voted green anyway, fresh of there relative success in May, perhaps they can grow there vote even while the LD try to squeeze, or maybe not.

    Probably down, due to tactical voting for the LDs.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,725
    alex_ said:

    Anyone think Macron has got a bit rattled by that poll in France allegedly showing that Johnson was surprisingly popular there?

    Well someone slapped his face.. I guess that would bother him...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,202

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Squeeze on Pfizer vaccine supplies casts further doubt on 21 June reopening

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/squeeze-pfizer-vaccine-supplies-doubt-21-june-reopening-1046212

    How long before some EU gloating?
    I think they're so far behind, that they're probably not going to want to draw attention to vaccines. That being said... they were right to get a big Pfizer order in in March, and we didn't bother because we expected Novavax to arrive.
    Is there any update on Novavax and Valneva ?
    The problem with Novavax is that the vaccine is fantastic, but the company has no experience building massive vaccine mass production facilities and dealing with a complex supply chain. My gut is that neither Valneva or Novavax will arrive in meaningful quantities until after the pandemic is already over.

    The same is true for the EU and CureVac: they'll have 200 million doses arriving after they've vaccinated everyone.

    It is, however, probably good news for the rest of the world, as these doses can be sold to them.
    To be fair, Valneva was always scheduled not to put in an appearance until the back end of the year anyway. It's Novavax that's been the real disappointment. The investment that has been to Britain what Sanofi-GSK was to France. A dud. Although that, of course, is why Kate Bingham placed bets on so many horses in the first place.
    Yes, and she was right to do so - especially as mRNA technology was so unproven.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080
    edited June 2021
    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    I have voted Green, twice

    What makes me think they are destined for success is that I voted for them positively. Whereas my votes for the Lib Dems have been tactical (I don't really approve of them, but they are better than Labour), and my other non-Tory votes have been protest (UKIP for the EP) or a joke (Count Binface, Lozza Fox, etc etc)

    Whereas the odd occasion I have voted Green it is when I am outraged at the despoliation of the planet. When I think about microplastics, or litter, or the pollution of our sacred rivers, or disposable nappies, or diesel fumes, or whales choked by plastic bags - I get this primal anger and I think Fuck it: GREEN, SAVE THE WORLD

    I am sure millions feel the same daily. in the UK. Even the apolitical. This is a mighty human emotion and if the Greens learn to truly harness it - like windfarms harvesting the gale! - they will do very well indeed

    But drop the ultra-Wokeness, PLEASE

    Aren't you with your globe trotting heavily responsible for that despoliation of the planet? Asking for a friend

    yes, probably

    I justify it by saying I evangelise the state of nature to the world, but it is a bit feeble.

    We are all guilty hypocrites when it comes to Green Issues. And this is part of my point. Any human with a conscience feels guilty at what we have done to Planet Earth, and guilt is a super-powerful human emotion. I believe guilt explains cave art and human sacrifice, it has certainly powered much religion (where is Christianity without the guilt of sin?) and now it fuels Wokeness (the guilt of race, tho they can fuck off with that).

    If the Greens successfully plug into the electoral mains supply of guilt va-va-voom
    I don't feel guilty particularly, I dont drive, I don't go on many foreign holidays 2 in the last 20 years. I don't consume much, I don't buy lots of tat I don't need. Most of those who become green evangelicals seem to be people like you that have done all those things and now they have done them want to feel virtue for themselves by lecturing the rest of us about how we shouldn't do them. People who actually won't be affected that much because they are insulated by wealth if the green agenda comes in
    Point of order: I never lecture

    I am many bad things: a womanizer, a boozer, a layabout, an (ex) druggie, a PB-er, a white man, a heterosexual, a Tory voter, a friend of terrible criminals, but I am not a sanctimonious hypocrite. Can't stand em
    Will you be putting all that on your "race card"....the new thing after your preferred pronouns at the bottom of emails.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    alex_ said:

    Anyone think Macron has got a bit rattled by that poll in France allegedly showing that Johnson was surprisingly popular there?

    No. Because Boris Johnson is NOT gonna run for President of France, at least not THIS decade.
    Not because he might take his job. But because one of Macron’s big pitches is more Europe, more Europe, more Europe - but if large numbers of French are responding by expressing their liking of the current big EU antagonist/bogeyman then the message clearly isn’t getting through. And doubling down is rarely a sound political strategy.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    rcs1000 said:

    BigRich said:

    Squeeze on Pfizer vaccine supplies casts further doubt on 21 June reopening

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/squeeze-pfizer-vaccine-supplies-doubt-21-june-reopening-1046212

    Get on the phone to sid and get that warehouse full of AZN jabs moving product.
    Too late, the Government's decided not to offer it to the under 40s.

    Once the middle-aged have had their second jabs then I imagine they'll start donating the entire output of the AZ plants to Covax. This will ensure that it takes well into the Autumn to get the under 40s (including, after a deliberately lengthy spell of handwringing, secondary school kids) double-vaxxed, by which juncture the booster jabs, bad weather, flu season and various other excuses can be deployed to keep masks and social distancing and the rest of the bullshit going until the middle of next year - whilst SAGE works on the necessary arguments and accompanying catastrophist models to enforce them forever.
    Government need to be bold. Offer AZN to anybody who wants it, come tomorrow, we will give out 10k at such and such location.

    They will be queuing round the block.

    The risk assessment has now changed with Indian covid.
    Agreed, though I don't know how many AZ shots there are ready, it does seem a better idea to vaccinate the group that has the biggest number of cases and fasted rise, now, rather than bringing the waiting time for a second jab down for 45 year olds.
    5m doses are sitting in a warehouse.
    I believe it's nearly 6m now, as more doses are delivered by AZ every day.
    nearly 6 Million Vaccine shots waiting in storage, while we have a third way and are even considering delaying the end of Lockdown. I am angary, very angary!!
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,876
    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Anyone think Macron has got a bit rattled by that poll in France allegedly showing that Johnson was surprisingly popular there?

    The poll showed Boris was popular with Les Republicains voters and voters for Le Pen's party but he was unpopular with Socialists and voters for Macron's En Marche party so not really that surprising and largely along party lines and enthusiasm for the EU or not
    The reason the lib dems will never recover is simple, for most they were nothing more than a protest vote....a none of the above vote. When they got into power in 2010 people realised that they were no longer a none of the above vote and they dropped a fair few who will vote someone else again. Don't underestimate the number who feel virtuous about shrugging at the government of the day and saying "I didn't vote for them".
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    alex_ said:

    Anyone think Macron has got a bit rattled by that poll in France allegedly showing that Johnson was surprisingly popular there?

    Well someone slapped his face.. I guess that would bother him...
    4 months in prison. I reckon he wanted the revival of the guillotine...
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,876
    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    I have voted Green, twice

    What makes me think they are destined for success is that I voted for them positively. Whereas my votes for the Lib Dems have been tactical (I don't really approve of them, but they are better than Labour), and my other non-Tory votes have been protest (UKIP for the EP) or a joke (Count Binface, Lozza Fox, etc etc)

    Whereas the odd occasion I have voted Green it is when I am outraged at the despoliation of the planet. When I think about microplastics, or litter, or the pollution of our sacred rivers, or disposable nappies, or diesel fumes, or whales choked by plastic bags - I get this primal anger and I think Fuck it: GREEN, SAVE THE WORLD

    I am sure millions feel the same daily. in the UK. Even the apolitical. This is a mighty human emotion and if the Greens learn to truly harness it - like windfarms harvesting the gale! - they will do very well indeed

    But drop the ultra-Wokeness, PLEASE

    Aren't you with your globe trotting heavily responsible for that despoliation of the planet? Asking for a friend

    yes, probably

    I justify it by saying I evangelise the state of nature to the world, but it is a bit feeble.

    We are all guilty hypocrites when it comes to Green Issues. And this is part of my point. Any human with a conscience feels guilty at what we have done to Planet Earth, and guilt is a super-powerful human emotion. I believe guilt explains cave art and human sacrifice, it has certainly powered much religion (where is Christianity without the guilt of sin?) and now it fuels Wokeness (the guilt of race, tho they can fuck off with that).

    If the Greens successfully plug into the electoral mains supply of guilt va-va-voom
    I don't feel guilty particularly, I dont drive, I don't go on many foreign holidays 2 in the last 20 years. I don't consume much, I don't buy lots of tat I don't need. Most of those who become green evangelicals seem to be people like you that have done all those things and now they have done them want to feel virtue for themselves by lecturing the rest of us about how we shouldn't do them. People who actually won't be affected that much because they are insulated by wealth if the green agenda comes in
    Point of order: I never lecture

    I am many bad things: a womanizer, a boozer, a layabout, an (ex) druggie, a PB-er, a white man, a heterosexual, a Tory voter, a friend of terrible criminals, but I am not a sanctimonious hypocrite. Can't stand em
    Well that is a point of view and we all have our own, you may not think so doesn't mean others don't think otherwise
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,612

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Squeeze on Pfizer vaccine supplies casts further doubt on 21 June reopening

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/squeeze-pfizer-vaccine-supplies-doubt-21-june-reopening-1046212

    How long before some EU gloating?
    I think they're so far behind, that they're probably not going to want to draw attention to vaccines. That being said... they were right to get a big Pfizer order in in March, and we didn't bother because we expected Novavax to arrive.
    Is there any update on Novavax and Valneva ?
    The problem with Novavax is that the vaccine is fantastic, but the company has no experience building massive vaccine mass production facilities and dealing with a complex supply chain. My gut is that neither Valneva or Novavax will arrive in meaningful quantities until after the pandemic is already over.

    The same is true for the EU and CureVac: they'll have 200 million doses arriving after they've vaccinated everyone.

    It is, however, probably good news for the rest of the world, as these doses can be sold to them.
    To be fair, Valneva was always scheduled not to put in an appearance until the back end of the year anyway. It's Novavax that's been the real disappointment. The investment that has been to Britain what Sanofi-GSK was to France. A dud. Although that, of course, is why Kate Bingham placed bets on so many horses in the first place.
    Valneva seems to be progressing still:

    https://valneva.com/press-release/valneva-completes-phase-3-trial-recruitment-for-its-inactivated-covid-19-vaccine-candidate/

    But I don't know how long the trial needs and/or when production begins.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080
    edited June 2021
    Paul Hunter, professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, thinks R of Indian variant isn't 6, no he thinks its 8...

    Bruce Forysth....higher, lower, higher, lower.... nice to see you...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2021
    Yesterday I posted Paddy Powers undercover seat bet prices, which I’d seem on oddschecker… the Tories looked too low (329.5) & the LDs too high (40.5) but the prices don’t seem to exist on their website

    I thought they maybe left up from the last GE, but someone on here said they’d been having £20s on them for a while… any idea? Anyone else got on them?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The LDs second rate performance in the local elections around those parts suggests that an upset isn't in the offing, but quite honestly who knows in this day and age?

    Ultimately, the LDs need (as they've always done) some issue that "the big two" don't care about, or it's something they both agree on.

    Back in 2005, that was the Iraq war. It could have been Europe (if the LDs had gone the David Penhaligon route) in the mid-2010s.

    Right now, it's *maybe* being a bit more aggressive at easing lockdowns. But they really don't have that "thing" that resonates.

    For the record, I think that's the Greens problem in the UK too. If Labour and the Conservatives were all in favour of heavy industry and cars and coal, then they'd clearly be well positioned. But the Conservative government has pretty impeccable Green credentials, so the Greens need to be so extreme, they're practically Extinction Rebellion, and while that works in Brighton and Bristol, it's not clear where else it resonates.

    Of course, maybe that thing is Europe and the EU. Maybe their role is to say "wouldn't it be great it if we were closer to and nicer to those nice Europeans".

    Or maybe their role right now is to argue for fiscal restraint, and to warn against big government causing inflation. There's probably a niche there.
    The Greens have a better brand and a better identity. It is an easier sell, all round

    "What did you vote?!

    "Oh I voted Green, OF COURSE" = you really care about animals, flowers, the planet, big things, being nice to small things, saving nature, windmills, villages, kittens, probably the EU, and you dislike massive nuclear power stations, war, dying swans tangled in plastic, massive factories belching smoke. It's a statement of who you are and it's positive


    If you answer

    "Oh I voted Lib Dems" you will get puzzled looks. You can't say "of course" because no one knows why anyone would vote Lib Dem. Who is their leader? What are their policies?

    The Greens will supersede them
    Well, I would vote for almost any political party over the Greens, because they are just like BLM. Only, you're actually voting for them and trying to give them power.

    You're voting for a party explicitly trying to put back progress.

    In Germany - by contrast - you're voting for a centrist party that is a lot more sensible than the SPD or Linke.

    The LibDems succeeded by having local power and then leveraging that for parliamentary success. And people saw their local council was boringly run by the LibDems and it was OK.

    I think that's a hard route for the Greens.

    I can see the LDs and the Greens cancelling each other out for the Middle Class, not Lab or Con, vote. But I struggle to see a route to power that does not include local government success for the Greens. And I struggle to see them as successful local custodians.
    My hunch is that the Greens will moderate - like the Greens in Germany -as they get an actual whiff of real power. This is what generally happens to parties, after all

    And replacing the Lib Dems is not that hard, given the great power in the Green brand, worldwide

    And they should become the party of Rejoin, of course (if they're not already?)

    I can see that getting 10-20% of the vote in the UK, this decade. Maybe more
    Not sure you guys know a lot of Green activists, as I do. I totally agree that they are seen as the reasonable non-Tory vote. But the activists are not very interested in power - much like the Tory hardliners, they are deeply into culture war, with wokeness a subtext to general alternative lifestyle. I like the ones I know, but they're not really trying to replace anyone, just win some local elections and speak up for a green world. That's why, even though they totally agreed with Corbynism, they weren't interested in joining Labour or even forming a pact with them, since Labour is full of earnest types with zero counter-culture interest. Corbyn and McDonnell are far more similar in temperament to Starmer or indeed Theresa May than they are to a typical green activist.
    Yes, I agree. Many will vote tactically, but the counter-culture of Green activists is not one that is that bothered by FPTP national politics. There is a light green counter culture element to the LDs too, more interested in promoting policies and issues.
    Counter-culture?

    Their counter-culture is now The Culture so to be counter-culture today they'd need to be arguing for extremist nonsense like treating people as individuals as they come, accepting the realities of natural biology, conserving our heritage, and weird "out there" stuff like that.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    BigRich said:

    Been a while since Mrs May has been on the front page of the Telegraph:

    Friday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “May: Global Britain is closed for business”

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1403097176855691266?s=20

    I cant open the link, what is she winging about?

    does she what more lockdown or less? or is it something else?
    Her constituency has lots of LHR workers:


  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    I always thought ‘biopic’ rhymed with ‘myopic’ but heard it pronounced ‘bye-oh-pic’ yesterday. Which is correct?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,612
    Sean_F said:

    Been a while since Mrs May has been on the front page of the Telegraph:

    Friday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “May: Global Britain is closed for business”

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1403097176855691266?s=20

    She really is very bitter isn't she.
    She has a fair point.
    She doesn't.

    She's just cheerleading for Heathrow.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,708

    Been a while since Mrs May has been on the front page of the Telegraph:

    Friday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “May: Global Britain is closed for business”

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1403097176855691266?s=20

    She really is very bitter isn't she.
    Certainly so, but there is room for a fiscally tight pro business faction within the Tories, opposed to the spendthrift levelling up agenda, with a levelling down effect in many trad Tory areas.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,585
    My latest prediction for Chesham & Amersham would be something like:

    Con 45%
    LD 40%
    Lab 5%
    Greens 5%
    Reform 5%
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,821
    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    I have voted Green, twice

    What makes me think they are destined for success is that I voted for them positively. Whereas my votes for the Lib Dems have been tactical (I don't really approve of them, but they are better than Labour), and my other non-Tory votes have been protest (UKIP for the EP) or a joke (Count Binface, Lozza Fox, etc etc)

    Whereas the odd occasion I have voted Green it is when I am outraged at the despoliation of the planet. When I think about microplastics, or litter, or the pollution of our sacred rivers, or disposable nappies, or diesel fumes, or whales choked by plastic bags - I get this primal anger and I think Fuck it: GREEN, SAVE THE WORLD

    I am sure millions feel the same daily. in the UK. Even the apolitical. This is a mighty human emotion and if the Greens learn to truly harness it - like windfarms harvesting the gale! - they will do very well indeed

    But drop the ultra-Wokeness, PLEASE

    Aren't you with your globe trotting heavily responsible for that despoliation of the planet? Asking for a friend
    Going back to Leon's point, there should be excellent positive reasons to vote Lib Dem. I rather like Liberal Democracy (in the Francis Fukuyama sense) and consider it humanity's best hope. And over the past year we've seen how under threat it is from both external (Chinese, Russian, Middle Eastern) and internal (lockdown, woke, Islamic) forces; and how indifferent the main parties appear to be about this. Trouble is, the Lib Dems seem pretty indifferent too, preferring to focus their energies on Brexit and transsexuals.
    A Lib Dem party which believed confidently in Liberal Democracy would be an attractive proposition.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,237

    Squeeze on Pfizer vaccine supplies casts further doubt on 21 June reopening

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/squeeze-pfizer-vaccine-supplies-doubt-21-june-reopening-1046212

    Get on the phone to sid and get that warehouse full of AZN jabs moving product.
    Too late, the Government's decided not to offer it to the under 40s.

    Once the middle-aged have had their second jabs then I imagine they'll start donating the entire output of the AZ plants to Covax. This will ensure that it takes well into the Autumn to get the under 40s (including, after a deliberately lengthy spell of handwringing, secondary school kids) double-vaxxed, by which juncture the booster jabs, bad weather, flu season and various other excuses can be deployed to keep masks and social distancing and the rest of the bullshit going until the middle of next year - whilst SAGE works on the necessary arguments and accompanying catastrophist models to enforce them forever.
    Government need to be bold. Offer AZN to anybody who wants it, come tomorrow, we will give out 10k at such and such location.

    They will be queuing round the block.
    1. They're "following the science" so they daren't
    2. They don't want to anyway. Drawing this thing out gives them additional excuses never to cut the chains
    And it muddies the story of "we did a brilliant job on jabs". Which the government won't want to do if it can help it.

    (If the UK really does have more AZN than it knows what to do with, then it should damn well find someone else who can use it. Even if it is the equivalent of donating spare wrapping paper to the charity shop- the right thing to do without really being generous.

    The trouble with the "Just give it out" thing, aside from the government being incapable of organising it, is that the risk-benefit thing for jabbing Da Yoot is tricky anyway. We're not really vaccinating youngsters to protect them, but to protect the community by breaking chains of transmission. So we have to be supercareful about the risks we expose vaccinands to.

    And as for Eurogloating, I don't see it, apart from nutters. I'm probably as minimal as it gets on the UK lead on this site, and people saying that "Europe are where we were in March" are flat out wrong. But I don't see the EU finishing vaccination (whatever "finishing" means) before the UK. If I had to guess, I'd say 4 weeks behind at the end. Because they have buckets of Pfizer right now, and we have cupfuls.

    But the UK will probably get back to minimal restrictions about the same time as some neighbouring countries. And that's BoJo's other problem. Because if A N Other Euronation unlocks fully before us and gets away with it, that will put some cats among some pigeons, without social distancing...)
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,876

    BigRich said:

    Been a while since Mrs May has been on the front page of the Telegraph:

    Friday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “May: Global Britain is closed for business”

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1403097176855691266?s=20

    I cant open the link, what is she winging about?

    does she what more lockdown or less? or is it something else?
    Her constituency has lots of LHR workers:


    Cookie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    I have voted Green, twice

    What makes me think they are destined for success is that I voted for them positively. Whereas my votes for the Lib Dems have been tactical (I don't really approve of them, but they are better than Labour), and my other non-Tory votes have been protest (UKIP for the EP) or a joke (Count Binface, Lozza Fox, etc etc)

    Whereas the odd occasion I have voted Green it is when I am outraged at the despoliation of the planet. When I think about microplastics, or litter, or the pollution of our sacred rivers, or disposable nappies, or diesel fumes, or whales choked by plastic bags - I get this primal anger and I think Fuck it: GREEN, SAVE THE WORLD

    I am sure millions feel the same daily. in the UK. Even the apolitical. This is a mighty human emotion and if the Greens learn to truly harness it - like windfarms harvesting the gale! - they will do very well indeed

    But drop the ultra-Wokeness, PLEASE

    Aren't you with your globe trotting heavily responsible for that despoliation of the planet? Asking for a friend
    Going back to Leon's point, there should be excellent positive reasons to vote Lib Dem. I rather like Liberal Democracy (in the Francis Fukuyama sense) and consider it humanity's best hope. And over the past year we've seen how under threat it is from both external (Chinese, Russian, Middle Eastern) and internal (lockdown, woke, Islamic) forces; and how indifferent the main parties appear to be about this. Trouble is, the Lib Dems seem pretty indifferent too, preferring to focus their energies on Brexit and transsexuals.
    A Lib Dem party which believed confidently in Liberal Democracy would be an attractive proposition.
    I agree however the lib dems in my life time have neither been liberal or democratic. I have voted labour. I would never consider voting lib dem as they are liars and charlatans
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487

    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    I have voted Green, twice

    What makes me think they are destined for success is that I voted for them positively. Whereas my votes for the Lib Dems have been tactical (I don't really approve of them, but they are better than Labour), and my other non-Tory votes have been protest (UKIP for the EP) or a joke (Count Binface, Lozza Fox, etc etc)

    Whereas the odd occasion I have voted Green it is when I am outraged at the despoliation of the planet. When I think about microplastics, or litter, or the pollution of our sacred rivers, or disposable nappies, or diesel fumes, or whales choked by plastic bags - I get this primal anger and I think Fuck it: GREEN, SAVE THE WORLD

    I am sure millions feel the same daily. in the UK. Even the apolitical. This is a mighty human emotion and if the Greens learn to truly harness it - like windfarms harvesting the gale! - they will do very well indeed

    But drop the ultra-Wokeness, PLEASE

    Aren't you with your globe trotting heavily responsible for that despoliation of the planet? Asking for a friend

    yes, probably

    I justify it by saying I evangelise the state of nature to the world, but it is a bit feeble.

    We are all guilty hypocrites when it comes to Green Issues. And this is part of my point. Any human with a conscience feels guilty at what we have done to Planet Earth, and guilt is a super-powerful human emotion. I believe guilt explains cave art and human sacrifice, it has certainly powered much religion (where is Christianity without the guilt of sin?) and now it fuels Wokeness (the guilt of race, tho they can fuck off with that).

    If the Greens successfully plug into the electoral mains supply of guilt va-va-voom
    I don't feel guilty particularly, I dont drive, I don't go on many foreign holidays 2 in the last 20 years. I don't consume much, I don't buy lots of tat I don't need. Most of those who become green evangelicals seem to be people like you that have done all those things and now they have done them want to feel virtue for themselves by lecturing the rest of us about how we shouldn't do them. People who actually won't be affected that much because they are insulated by wealth if the green agenda comes in
    Point of order: I never lecture

    I am many bad things: a womanizer, a boozer, a layabout, an (ex) druggie, a PB-er, a white man, a heterosexual, a Tory voter, a friend of terrible criminals, but I am not a sanctimonious hypocrite. Can't stand em
    Will you be putting all that on your "race card"....the new thing after your preferred pronouns at the bottom of emails.
    You joke, but - unchecked - we could all be putting our self-declared racial identity on our email signatures together with our pronouns in 5 years time.

    And people (including on here) would have laughed at the pronoun stuff 7-8 years ago. "Never gonna happen!" ,."Loon." Etc.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Anyone think Macron has got a bit rattled by that poll in France allegedly showing that Johnson was surprisingly popular there?

    The poll showed Boris was popular with Les Republicains voters and voters for Le Pen's party but he was unpopular with Socialists and voters for Macron's En Marche party so not really that surprising and largely along party lines and enthusiasm for the EU or not
    The reason the lib dems will never recover is simple, for most they were nothing more than a protest vote....a none of the above vote. When they got into power in 2010 people realised that they were no longer a none of the above vote and they dropped a fair few who will vote someone else again. Don't underestimate the number who feel virtuous about shrugging at the government of the day and saying "I didn't vote for them".
    Its a pity in a way, I quite like a lot of what they stand for, pro Gay marage, pro Pot legalisation, pro a Land value Tax, and a general openness to the would particularly pro trade, pro science, pro rational thinking. not big tax, state, big trade unions or big corporations.

    However I could not vote for them in the near tern because of their EU position. others I think will find it hard to support them because of the coalition with the Tory's, and now the young idealists are moor likely to be attracted to the greens.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,612

    Paul Hunter, professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, thinks R of Indian variant isn't 6, no he thinks its 8...

    Bruce Forysth....higher, lower, higher, lower.... nice to see you...

    If it was then millions would be dying in India.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080
    edited June 2021

    Squeeze on Pfizer vaccine supplies casts further doubt on 21 June reopening

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/squeeze-pfizer-vaccine-supplies-doubt-21-june-reopening-1046212

    Get on the phone to sid and get that warehouse full of AZN jabs moving product.
    Too late, the Government's decided not to offer it to the under 40s.

    Once the middle-aged have had their second jabs then I imagine they'll start donating the entire output of the AZ plants to Covax. This will ensure that it takes well into the Autumn to get the under 40s (including, after a deliberately lengthy spell of handwringing, secondary school kids) double-vaxxed, by which juncture the booster jabs, bad weather, flu season and various other excuses can be deployed to keep masks and social distancing and the rest of the bullshit going until the middle of next year - whilst SAGE works on the necessary arguments and accompanying catastrophist models to enforce them forever.
    Government need to be bold. Offer AZN to anybody who wants it, come tomorrow, we will give out 10k at such and such location.

    They will be queuing round the block.
    1. They're "following the science" so they daren't
    2. They don't want to anyway. Drawing this thing out gives them additional excuses never to cut the chains
    And it muddies the story of "we did a brilliant job on jabs". Which the government won't want to do if it can help it.

    (If the UK really does have more AZN than it knows what to do with, then it should damn well find someone else who can use it. Even if it is the equivalent of donating spare wrapping paper to the charity shop- the right thing to do without really being generous.

    The trouble with the "Just give it out" thing, aside from the government being incapable of organising it, is that the risk-benefit thing for jabbing Da Yoot is tricky anyway. We're not really vaccinating youngsters to protect them, but to protect the community by breaking chains of transmission. So we have to be supercareful about the risks we expose vaccinands to.

    And as for Eurogloating, I don't see it, apart from nutters. I'm probably as minimal as it gets on the UK lead on this site, and people saying that "Europe are where we were in March" are flat out wrong. But I don't see the EU finishing vaccination (whatever "finishing" means) before the UK. If I had to guess, I'd say 4 weeks behind at the end. Because they have buckets of Pfizer right now, and we have cupfuls.

    But the UK will probably get back to minimal restrictions about the same time as some neighbouring countries. And that's BoJo's other problem. Because if A N Other Euronation unlocks fully before us and gets away with it, that will put some cats among some pigeons, without social distancing...)
    "The trouble with the "Just give it out" thing, aside from the government being incapable of organising it..."

    That's nonsense, they have shown they can do exactly that. Distribution and logistics have been excellent. And most recently shown exactly this in action with places like Bolton and also where they did days at Twickenham....they got through huge numbers.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    Andy_JS said:

    My latest prediction for Chesham & Amersham would be something like:

    Con 45%
    LD 40%
    Lab 5%
    Greens 5%
    Reform 5%

    On that basis they'd be a good value loser.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,876
    BigRich said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Anyone think Macron has got a bit rattled by that poll in France allegedly showing that Johnson was surprisingly popular there?

    The poll showed Boris was popular with Les Republicains voters and voters for Le Pen's party but he was unpopular with Socialists and voters for Macron's En Marche party so not really that surprising and largely along party lines and enthusiasm for the EU or not
    The reason the lib dems will never recover is simple, for most they were nothing more than a protest vote....a none of the above vote. When they got into power in 2010 people realised that they were no longer a none of the above vote and they dropped a fair few who will vote someone else again. Don't underestimate the number who feel virtuous about shrugging at the government of the day and saying "I didn't vote for them".
    Its a pity in a way, I quite like a lot of what they stand for, pro Gay marage, pro Pot legalisation, pro a Land value Tax, and a general openness to the would particularly pro trade, pro science, pro rational thinking. not big tax, state, big trade unions or big corporations.

    However I could not vote for them in the near tern because of their EU position. others I think will find it hard to support them because of the coalition with the Tory's, and now the young idealists are moor likely to be attracted to the greens.
    They only claim to be pro those things till they decide they aren't. I don't believe a word that comes out of their mouth frankly
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080
    edited June 2021

    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    I have voted Green, twice

    What makes me think they are destined for success is that I voted for them positively. Whereas my votes for the Lib Dems have been tactical (I don't really approve of them, but they are better than Labour), and my other non-Tory votes have been protest (UKIP for the EP) or a joke (Count Binface, Lozza Fox, etc etc)

    Whereas the odd occasion I have voted Green it is when I am outraged at the despoliation of the planet. When I think about microplastics, or litter, or the pollution of our sacred rivers, or disposable nappies, or diesel fumes, or whales choked by plastic bags - I get this primal anger and I think Fuck it: GREEN, SAVE THE WORLD

    I am sure millions feel the same daily. in the UK. Even the apolitical. This is a mighty human emotion and if the Greens learn to truly harness it - like windfarms harvesting the gale! - they will do very well indeed

    But drop the ultra-Wokeness, PLEASE

    Aren't you with your globe trotting heavily responsible for that despoliation of the planet? Asking for a friend

    yes, probably

    I justify it by saying I evangelise the state of nature to the world, but it is a bit feeble.

    We are all guilty hypocrites when it comes to Green Issues. And this is part of my point. Any human with a conscience feels guilty at what we have done to Planet Earth, and guilt is a super-powerful human emotion. I believe guilt explains cave art and human sacrifice, it has certainly powered much religion (where is Christianity without the guilt of sin?) and now it fuels Wokeness (the guilt of race, tho they can fuck off with that).

    If the Greens successfully plug into the electoral mains supply of guilt va-va-voom
    I don't feel guilty particularly, I dont drive, I don't go on many foreign holidays 2 in the last 20 years. I don't consume much, I don't buy lots of tat I don't need. Most of those who become green evangelicals seem to be people like you that have done all those things and now they have done them want to feel virtue for themselves by lecturing the rest of us about how we shouldn't do them. People who actually won't be affected that much because they are insulated by wealth if the green agenda comes in
    Point of order: I never lecture

    I am many bad things: a womanizer, a boozer, a layabout, an (ex) druggie, a PB-er, a white man, a heterosexual, a Tory voter, a friend of terrible criminals, but I am not a sanctimonious hypocrite. Can't stand em
    Will you be putting all that on your "race card"....the new thing after your preferred pronouns at the bottom of emails.
    You joke, but - unchecked - we could all be putting our self-declared racial identity on our email signatures together with our pronouns in 5 years time.

    And people (including on here) would have laughed at the pronoun stuff 7-8 years ago. "Never gonna happen!" ,."Loon." Etc.
    I am sort of joking, but also pointing out the story that the outgoing head of National Geographic did exactly this.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Andy_JS said:

    My latest prediction for Chesham & Amersham would be something like:

    Con 45%
    LD 40%
    Lab 5%
    Greens 5%
    Reform 5%

    I cant see reform getting 5% there, perhaps reform, Region-EU Liberty Alliance and Breakthrough, between them.

    Otherwise, that sounds about right, would be fun if Green beet labour in to forth!!
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Squeeze on Pfizer vaccine supplies casts further doubt on 21 June reopening

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/squeeze-pfizer-vaccine-supplies-doubt-21-june-reopening-1046212

    How long before some EU gloating?
    I think they're so far behind, that they're probably not going to want to draw attention to vaccines. That being said... they were right to get a big Pfizer order in in March, and we didn't bother because we expected Novavax to arrive.
    Is there any update on Novavax and Valneva ?
    The problem with Novavax is that the vaccine is fantastic, but the company has no experience building massive vaccine mass production facilities and dealing with a complex supply chain. My gut is that neither Valneva or Novavax will arrive in meaningful quantities until after the pandemic is already over.

    The same is true for the EU and CureVac: they'll have 200 million doses arriving after they've vaccinated everyone.

    It is, however, probably good news for the rest of the world, as these doses can be sold to them.
    To be fair, Valneva was always scheduled not to put in an appearance until the back end of the year anyway. It's Novavax that's been the real disappointment. The investment that has been to Britain what Sanofi-GSK was to France. A dud. Although that, of course, is why Kate Bingham placed bets on so many horses in the first place.
    Valneva seems to be progressing still:

    https://valneva.com/press-release/valneva-completes-phase-3-trial-recruitment-for-its-inactivated-covid-19-vaccine-candidate/

    But I don't know how long the trial needs and/or when production begins.
    It's academic from the point of view of domestic need, at least until the Autumn 2022 joint flu-Covid immunisation campaign. I'd imagine that, if boosters end up being deployed this year, they'll most likely be more AZ supplemented with some Pfizer/Moderna. By the time the other alternatives are finally ready we'll be loading them onto planes and sending them straight off to Africa.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,612

    Squeeze on Pfizer vaccine supplies casts further doubt on 21 June reopening

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/squeeze-pfizer-vaccine-supplies-doubt-21-june-reopening-1046212

    Get on the phone to sid and get that warehouse full of AZN jabs moving product.
    Too late, the Government's decided not to offer it to the under 40s.

    Once the middle-aged have had their second jabs then I imagine they'll start donating the entire output of the AZ plants to Covax. This will ensure that it takes well into the Autumn to get the under 40s (including, after a deliberately lengthy spell of handwringing, secondary school kids) double-vaxxed, by which juncture the booster jabs, bad weather, flu season and various other excuses can be deployed to keep masks and social distancing and the rest of the bullshit going until the middle of next year - whilst SAGE works on the necessary arguments and accompanying catastrophist models to enforce them forever.
    Government need to be bold. Offer AZN to anybody who wants it, come tomorrow, we will give out 10k at such and such location.

    They will be queuing round the block.
    1. They're "following the science" so they daren't
    2. They don't want to anyway. Drawing this thing out gives them additional excuses never to cut the chains
    And it muddies the story of "we did a brilliant job on jabs". Which the government won't want to do if it can help it.

    (If the UK really does have more AZN than it knows what to do with, then it should damn well find someone else who can use it. Even if it is the equivalent of donating spare wrapping paper to the charity shop- the right thing to do without really being generous.

    The trouble with the "Just give it out" thing, aside from the government being incapable of organising it, is that the risk-benefit thing for jabbing Da Yoot is tricky anyway. We're not really vaccinating youngsters to protect them, but to protect the community by breaking chains of transmission. So we have to be supercareful about the risks we expose vaccinands to.

    And as for Eurogloating, I don't see it, apart from nutters. I'm probably as minimal as it gets on the UK lead on this site, and people saying that "Europe are where we were in March" are flat out wrong. But I don't see the EU finishing vaccination (whatever "finishing" means) before the UK. If I had to guess, I'd say 4 weeks behind at the end. Because they have buckets of Pfizer right now, and we have cupfuls.

    But the UK will probably get back to minimal restrictions about the same time as some neighbouring countries. And that's BoJo's other problem. Because if A N Other Euronation unlocks fully before us and gets away with it, that will put some cats among some pigeons, without social distancing...)
    The unknown issue is how much vaccine take-up there will be per country.

    The UK is going to be very high and probably higher than it would have been without Indian variant.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,531



    Counter-culture?

    Their counter-culture is now The Culture so to be counter-culture today they'd need to be arguing for extremist nonsense like treating people as individuals as they come, accepting the realities of natural biology, conserving our heritage, and weird "out there" stuff like that.

    No, you're thinking of the so-called woke stuff that Leon always goes on about. Green counter-culture is wearing recycled clothes, veganism, not having a car, soft drugs, that sort of thing.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,030
    rcs1000 said:

    alex_ said:

    Anyone think Macron has got a bit rattled by that poll in France allegedly showing that Johnson was surprisingly popular there?

    No. Because Boris Johnson is NOT gonna run for President of France, at least not THIS decade.
    Is there any issue with Boris having both jobs simultaneously?
    As a born-again left-footer, perhaps Bozo has his eye on becoming the next Pope?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,725
    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    Anyone think Macron has got a bit rattled by that poll in France allegedly showing that Johnson was surprisingly popular there?

    Well someone slapped his face.. I guess that would bother him...
    4 months in prison. I reckon he wanted the revival of the guillotine...
    I learned a new verb to.my French vocabulary looking up" to slap"... its gifler
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,876



    Counter-culture?

    Their counter-culture is now The Culture so to be counter-culture today they'd need to be arguing for extremist nonsense like treating people as individuals as they come, accepting the realities of natural biology, conserving our heritage, and weird "out there" stuff like that.

    No, you're thinking of the so-called woke stuff that Leon always goes on about. Green counter-culture is wearing recycled clothes, veganism, not having a car, soft drugs, that sort of thing.
    Thats not counter culture its called being unemployed and you cant afford those things
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,202
    Andy_JS said:

    My latest prediction for Chesham & Amersham would be something like:

    Con 45%
    LD 40%
    Lab 5%
    Greens 5%
    Reform 5%

    I think that's probably right, I might say more like 47-40 for the Con - LD spread, but something in that range.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,689
    The special relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom is stronger than ever. Thank you for hosting me today, Prime Minister Johnson.

    https://twitter.com/potus/status/1403098141352763393

    image
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080
    edited June 2021
    John Campbell reporting uptake among ethnic minorities of 2nd dose is significantly lower. Bad news given even if the figures from PHE are on the low side, we know really important to get 2nd dose against Indian variant.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,202
    BigRich said:

    Been a while since Mrs May has been on the front page of the Telegraph:

    Friday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “May: Global Britain is closed for business”

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1403097176855691266?s=20

    I cant open the link, what is she winging about?

    does she what more lockdown or less? or is it something else?
    She's complaining (and she's not wrong) that the guidance and rules on foreign travel are complex and unclear.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    UK to donate 100m spare doses of vaccine over the next year.

    Only 5m by the end of September - but another 25m in 2021, the remaining ones in 2022.

    Doses will come from the unused supply ordered by Britain last year.


    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1403103578429038592?s=20
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,202
    isam said:

    Yesterday I posted Paddy Powers undercover seat bet prices, which I’d seem on oddschecker… the Tories looked too low (329.5) & the LDs too high (40.5) but the prices don’t seem to exist on their website

    I thought they maybe left up from the last GE, but someone on here said they’d been having £20s on them for a while… any idea? Anyone else got on them?

    40.5 for LDs is ridiculous. I don't believe it is genuine at all. The market is going to be at +/- 12.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,585
    Just got back from a massive Covid-19 experiment at Edgbaston cricket ground. 18,000 people squashed together with hardly any social distancing or mask wearing. It'll be interesting to see the results.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,706

    The special relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom is stronger than ever. Thank you for hosting me today, Prime Minister Johnson.

    https://twitter.com/potus/status/1403098141352763393

    image

    "Now go. Walk into the sea, and never look back"
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,725

    Paul Hunter, professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, thinks R of Indian variant isn't 6, no he thinks its 8...

    Bruce Forysth....higher, lower, higher, lower.... nice to see you...

    If it was then millions would be dying in India.
    We don't know the true scale of death. We do know lots of bodies are floating down the Ganges...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080
    Andy_JS said:

    Just got back from a massive Covid-19 experiment at Edgbaston cricket ground. 18,000 people squashed together with hardly any social distancing or mask wearing. It'll be interesting to see the results.

    It was very noticeable on the telly the lack of masks.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,876

    The special relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom is stronger than ever. Thank you for hosting me today, Prime Minister Johnson.

    https://twitter.com/potus/status/1403098141352763393

    image

    "Now go. Walk into the sea, and never look back"
    I was waiting for the next photo where patels crack deportation squad zoom in on ribs and deport Biden for being a bit foreign
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,612
    rcs1000 said:

    BigRich said:

    Been a while since Mrs May has been on the front page of the Telegraph:

    Friday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “May: Global Britain is closed for business”

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1403097176855691266?s=20

    I cant open the link, what is she winging about?

    does she what more lockdown or less? or is it something else?
    She's complaining (and she's not wrong) that the guidance and rules on foreign travel are complex and unclear.
    When people ask for clarity what they're really after is to be told a clear Yes.

    Tell them a clear No and suddenly they don't want clarity but exceptions and possibilities and turn-a-blind-eye vagueness.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    The special relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom is stronger than ever. Thank you for hosting me today, Prime Minister Johnson.

    https://twitter.com/potus/status/1403098141352763393

    image

    "special relationship"?

    So will Telegraph & etc attack Uncle Joe for dissing BoJo in this outrageous manner? After it was reported the PM disliked the term, as making the UK seem "needy and weak"?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080

    Paul Hunter, professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, thinks R of Indian variant isn't 6, no he thinks its 8...

    Bruce Forysth....higher, lower, higher, lower.... nice to see you...

    If it was then millions would be dying in India.
    We don't know the true scale of death. We do know lots of bodies are floating down the Ganges...
    The round the clock burning of bodies is also a bit of a clue that the real number will be very large.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,201
    Andy_JS said:

    Just got back from a massive Covid-19 experiment at Edgbaston cricket ground. 18,000 people squashed together with hardly any social distancing or mask wearing. It'll be interesting to see the results.

    Were you in the Hollies ?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,237

    Squeeze on Pfizer vaccine supplies casts further doubt on 21 June reopening

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/squeeze-pfizer-vaccine-supplies-doubt-21-june-reopening-1046212

    Get on the phone to sid and get that warehouse full of AZN jabs moving product.
    Too late, the Government's decided not to offer it to the under 40s.

    Once the middle-aged have had their second jabs then I imagine they'll start donating the entire output of the AZ plants to Covax. This will ensure that it takes well into the Autumn to get the under 40s (including, after a deliberately lengthy spell of handwringing, secondary school kids) double-vaxxed, by which juncture the booster jabs, bad weather, flu season and various other excuses can be deployed to keep masks and social distancing and the rest of the bullshit going until the middle of next year - whilst SAGE works on the necessary arguments and accompanying catastrophist models to enforce them forever.
    Government need to be bold. Offer AZN to anybody who wants it, come tomorrow, we will give out 10k at such and such location.

    They will be queuing round the block.
    1. They're "following the science" so they daren't
    2. They don't want to anyway. Drawing this thing out gives them additional excuses never to cut the chains
    And it muddies the story of "we did a brilliant job on jabs". Which the government won't want to do if it can help it.

    (If the UK really does have more AZN than it knows what to do with, then it should damn well find someone else who can use it. Even if it is the equivalent of donating spare wrapping paper to the charity shop- the right thing to do without really being generous.

    The trouble with the "Just give it out" thing, aside from the government being incapable of organising it, is that the risk-benefit thing for jabbing Da Yoot is tricky anyway. We're not really vaccinating youngsters to protect them, but to protect the community by breaking chains of transmission. So we have to be supercareful about the risks we expose vaccinands to.

    And as for Eurogloating, I don't see it, apart from nutters. I'm probably as minimal as it gets on the UK lead on this site, and people saying that "Europe are where we were in March" are flat out wrong. But I don't see the EU finishing vaccination (whatever "finishing" means) before the UK. If I had to guess, I'd say 4 weeks behind at the end. Because they have buckets of Pfizer right now, and we have cupfuls.

    But the UK will probably get back to minimal restrictions about the same time as some neighbouring countries. And that's BoJo's other problem. Because if A N Other Euronation unlocks fully before us and gets away with it, that will put some cats among some pigeons, without social distancing...)
    "The trouble with the "Just give it out" thing, aside from the government being incapable of organising it..."

    That's nonsense, they have shown they can do exactly that. Distribution and logistics have been excellent. And most recently shown exactly this in action with places like Bolton and also where they did days at Twickenham....they got through huge numbers.
    The UK has had a system. And it's worked very well. As long as you go down the age range correctly. It's a very good queue, but it's a queue.

    I go on about France, but they've had some really good initiatives. For a while now, they have had a lastminute-style booking. Any slots available the night before are just opened to anyone. More recently, their age limit has gone down to 18. This guy has taken the French government data and done an amazing job of making it user-friendly and matching up jabs to people;

    https://www.archyde.com/guillaume-rozier-the-creator-of-vitemadose-receives-the-national-order-of-merit/

    Ironically, it's the kind of thing Cummings was dreaming of, without the psychopathology or eugenics.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    BigRich said:

    Been a while since Mrs May has been on the front page of the Telegraph:

    Friday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “May: Global Britain is closed for business”

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1403097176855691266?s=20

    I cant open the link, what is she winging about?

    does she what more lockdown or less? or is it something else?
    Her constituency has lots of LHR workers:


    I dont beleve I am saying this, but she is right, we sould oppen traval to the would.

    we have 7,000 ish cases a day of the Delta variant, what does a handful more matter. the vaccine has meant that is will not kill or even hospitalise many, and this is hearting both our freedoms and our economy.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,821



    Counter-culture?

    Their counter-culture is now The Culture so to be counter-culture today they'd need to be arguing for extremist nonsense like treating people as individuals as they come, accepting the realities of natural biology, conserving our heritage, and weird "out there" stuff like that.

    No, you're thinking of the so-called woke stuff that Leon always goes on about. Green counter-culture is wearing recycled clothes, veganism, not having a car, soft drugs, that sort of thing.
    You sure? Caroline Lucas for one seems keen never to be knowingly outwoked.
This discussion has been closed.