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The case for Labour making an electoral pact – politicalbetting.com

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  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 20,649
    edited May 16
    dixiedean said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I've just spent the past hour arguing about Israel and Palestine with some old muslim friends on Facebook. They are far closer to out-and-out supporting Hamas than I think they care to admit. I find it very worrying.

    Why are you surprised?

    Look at NI - the relatively moderate parties were pushed to the margins by the hard men on both sides. And the voters supported them. It was Sinn Fein and the DUP who gained power - not the poor old SDLP or the official Unionists. The same is happening in Israel and in the Occupied Territories.
    Every bugger cleaves to the fringes to protect them from the "other".
    There is a reason Netanyahu and Hamas remain in power.
    In NI it was in part caused by the British government, which rewarded the hard men eventually but did not reward the more moderate voices at an earlier stage when this might have made a difference. So voters turned to the tough guys.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 62,378
    dixiedean said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I've just spent the past hour arguing about Israel and Palestine with some old muslim friends on Facebook. They are far closer to out-and-out supporting Hamas than I think they care to admit. I find it very worrying.

    Why are you surprised?

    Look at NI - the relatively moderate parties were pushed to the margins by the hard men on both sides. And the voters supported them. It was Sinn Fein and the DUP who gained power - not the poor old SDLP or the official Unionists. The same is happening in Israel and in the Occupied Territories.
    Every bugger cleaves to the fringes to protect them from the "other".
    There is a reason Netanyahu and Hamas remain in power.
    And Sturgeon.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,712

    Floater said:

    Jonathan said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic. Out with Daughter tonight - her view and that of colleagues in hospitality in the area is that the promised lifting of restrictions in June will not happen. She fears this - obviously. Another lockdown will shut her business and many like hers for good. It is simply not viable to keep opening under restrictions then being shut again a few weeks later.

    But what she and others expect are continuing restrictions and that stage 5 or whatever it is will not happen. They are in despair about it because trading under current restrictions is impossible really - it's a slow death.

    The only good news is that her 30 year old chef has been called for his 1st vaccine dose tomorrow. So there is clearly a lot of ramping up of the vaccination effort happening. It is the only way out. And, anecdotally, the group felt a lot of resentment of anti-vaxxers & those travelling or not getting the vaccine making things worse for everyone else.

    It’s good that they are ramping up vaccines, but the mind boggles what they were waiting for.
    Have they been waiting? I’m known on PB as being a hard-to-please vaccine hawk, yet even I’ve been surprised on the upside by how many we have done in the last few weeks. We have wiped out lots of second dose debt and are now in a position to blitz the young.
    There has been no evidence through out this process anybody is waiting around or any real wastage....its organized chaos where generally everybody uses up all they get as fast as possible.
    It is an outstanding national success story.

    I'm a soppy old git but when I took my wife for her second jab yesterday I personally thanked every member of the team I saw.

    I can be critical of the NHS at times, and this last lockdown has impacted one of my son's treatments directly - but hats off to them over this.
    I am not a massively emotional type, but I certainly felt quite a special emotional feeling when I got jabbed....but thar might be because I am now plugged into SkyNet and they are controlling what they want me to think and feel.
    Actually it's the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation that has got it's chip now firmly imbedded within you.

    Thus any (unusual) cognitive dissonance you are currently experiencing, are the lawyers fighting over the divorce. FYI, turns out there was NO pre-nup. AND the Great State of WA is a community property state. Hence, she's entitled to 50% of . . . you do the math . . .
    Melinda wasn't impressed with the chip being embedded, that's why they're getting a divorce.

    I know its true, because I just made that up.
    Published accounts (in WSJ & etc) say it was because of the Sainted Bill hanging out with Jeffrey Epstein.

    My theory is that Melinda has her soon-to-be-ex by the short & curlies. Including documentation, some of which federal prosecutors dealing with La Maxwell and others in Epstein's Secret Island circle (such as at least one Prince of the Blood) would LOVE to get their mitts on.

    So don't expect too much push-back from Mr. Gates. Unless he wants to be neutered in court AND in the media. Just too bad he's not more like his old man, a truly good man AND a gentleman.
    The nytimes is going with this story pretty hard
    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/16/business/bill-melinda-gates-divorce-epstein.html?smid=url-share
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,401
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Carnyx said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Had a fun day today looking up some ancestry stuff with my Dad.

    He's always thought that his paternal grandparents were Irish, and had moved to England from there. Dad was quite keen on getting an Irish passport if we could prove it.

    He knew his Nan's name, Philomena, but not his grandfather's who had died before Dad was born.

    I managed to find the record of his grandfather John's will, which listed his address and the amount he'd left to Philomena.

    Then found out that John was born in the same English town as my Dad (but his father was probably from Ireland), and Philomena (nee MacDonald - not coincidentally the name that my Dad's Dad used when he changed his name and ran away to start a new family in Birmingham when my Dad was 11) was from Scotland.

    So I'm feeling a bit less Irish and a bit more Scottish than I was when I woke up!

    And quite a long way from an EU passport..

    Genealogy is always fun.
    It really is, though I'd guess a bit more formal and official in the world of old banking families than those of Irish pig farmers?!

    Dad's also sent me a 'history' of his maternal grandmother's family that was typed out by one of her brothers back in 1984, to the best of his memory - and just before he died in Jan 85.

    There's some funny and interesting stuff in his memories of his family, and a couple of tales of men in the military with local press clippings from WW2.

    But the main theme seems to be that all the men were essentially drunks who died early from drinking.

    While I sit here sipping a rather nice Australian Shiraz, I wonder if there might be some sort of warning there..
    One of my cousins has researched my Dad’s family back to the 1540s… I’ve been more interested in my Mum’s side as a result.

    I only learnt a couple of weeks ago, for example, that in the 1900s/1910s (different) family members were the head of Sinn Fein and the head of the Irish/Ulster Unionists*

    * Edward Carson & Edward Martyn
    I'd thought it might be interesting to see if Dad's family had left Ireland around the Irish Civil War time as Dad thought, as we could have found them in the historic Irish census records.

    I haven't yet looked into my Mum's Dad's family, but I believe that he was descended from Orangemen. And quite proud of it..
    One of the problems of genealogy is indeed the ICW - the destruction of the Four Courts. Lots of family records were lost then ...
    I have the original land deeds for the family farm in Ireland from the 1780's. That is when Ireland was still a separate state, before the Act of Union. Quite a rarity - one of my projects is to find out more about the family history before then. We know in general terms that the family name goes back to,the 11th century or thereabouts bit I'd like to find out a bit more of the detail.
    So recent blow-ins, were they? (Just joking!) What county?:
    County Limerick - Kilmallock. It has one of the oldest Norman arches in the country - Blossom Gate. My parents are buried in the nearby cemetery in Tankardstown. I believe that there has been a cemetery there since the 15th century.
    There once was a lassie from old Tankardstown
    Whose thirst for strong for drink gained reknown
    She'd drink up two barrels of gin
    Then in a vat of brandy would swim
    But 'twas good whiskey she most loved to chug down!
  • JohnWheatleyJohnWheatley Posts: 140
    The evidence around here is that in the absence of a Labour candidate, their vote is quite content to switch to the Liberal Democrats, but in the absence of a LD candidate, their vote splits nearly 50/50 betwween Labour and Tory.
  • JohnWheatleyJohnWheatley Posts: 140
    An under commented on point about the role of leadership in a political party is the impact of a leader on the opposition's strategy.

    Blair was able to win for the third time partly because he forced the Tories to the right - 'clear blue water' if you remember. Corbyn of course was quite the reverse - he had a wholly beneficial effect on his opposition. But Johnson too is Blair-esque in the impact he has on the opposition. Labour are in a mess of their own making, but partly of Johnson's making too.
  • CurbedLarryCurbedLarry Posts: 1
    Have always seen Starmer as a transitional leader and given Labour is incredibly unlikely to win the next election (next spring?) he should be more radical and start forming a pact.

    The Tories can continue to stack the cards in their favour and enjoy incredible luck but after ruling for 20-25 years the country will be sick of them. Their home-owning baby boomer support will start dying out in significant numbers from 2030 onwards.

    Also what happens when Brexit fails to deliver any benefit to those Northern seats?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,230

    Have always seen Starmer as a transitional leader and given Labour is incredibly unlikely to win the next election (next spring?) he should be more radical and start forming a pact.

    The Tories can continue to stack the cards in their favour and enjoy incredible luck but after ruling for 20-25 years the country will be sick of them. Their home-owning baby boomer support will start dying out in significant numbers from 2030 onwards.

    Also what happens when Brexit fails to deliver any benefit to those Northern seats?

    Welcome.

    Get yourself over to the other thread as things have moved over there.

    :smile:
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