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The King of the North succeeding Starmer? More like The King of Wishful Thinking – politicalbetting.
The King of the North succeeding Starmer? More like The King of Wishful Thinking – politicalbetting.com
Andy Burnham: Labour’s red wall seats would have been safer under me https://t.co/ngiQCOsOVQ
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The Tories in comparison, despite having plenty of weak ministers (if we are being generous), they do have a number of possible replacements for Boris that would be an instant step up and play better to the more diverse population / lazy stereotype of Tories being racist e.g. Javid or Dishy Rishi.
Even somebody like Hunt is far from done and dusted, a steady eddie candidate, that is superior to anything Labour have.
The Tories had the same problem where they were tarred with being likely to cut public services, try to privatize the NHS and a party who put up with racists and homophobes. It took a particular leader to start to turn this around and then an extremely favourable situation before they got the chance to prove this wrong.
Labour managed it in 1997 with Blair, convincing the public they weren't the party of the hard left / strike like they were French. At the moment, they don't have anybody with the skills of Blair.
* so-called as the news keep saying. I don’t remember them saying that when it was the Kent variant.
We have brilliant vaccines. It's time to trust them.
'in my lifetime there’s been only one politician who has been politically bullet proof when it comes to the NHS'
I notice that TSE is tease minus a couple of vowels.
Bet of the year
I’m shocked that David Miliband’s “charity” is exploiting its workers.
Labour are fecked with either of them.
Although that actually strengthens your point. I can’t think of any leader of a major party who wasn’t a Westminster representative. Of course, you have the SNP at Holyrood. And Dafydd Iwan was leader of Plaid Cymru when a member of Gwynedd County Council.
But in Labour’s case, it specifically states in their rule book that the leader must be a member of the House of Commons.
Burnham is not only a non-starter, he’s turned up at the wrong racecourse.
Impressive from Dan!
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9582499/Fury-Archbishop-Canterbury-turns-chaplain-reported-terror-unit.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9582545/Imam-brands-Muslim-MPs-backed-teacher-centre-Prophet-Muhammad-cartoon-row-coconuts.html
Do I really need to spell that out? Or could you maybe look up his biography yourself?
Anas Sarwar is Labour leader in Scotland, I doubt that concerns over Labour’s issues with racism have died simply because he is leader.
A military man ticks certain boxes which matter to the red wall voters (see Dan Hodges' piece).
And the squaddie-officer divide doesn't really come into play when you're talking about paras or marines.
Labour is not offering solutions to any of the issues or concerns voters have, that is their biggest problem. Voters are not dismissive of Labour because of Israel v Palestine, or because Starmer took the knee one time, but because they appear to be incompetent and out of ideas.
- He is seen as having provided opposition to the current government where the current leadership are perceived to have been poor in this area.
- Burnham is seen as defining himself in relation to the current government in a much more clearer way than Starmer has currently.
It’s not really about some kind of golden age.
And symbols can be very important in political leadership in sending messages about wider changes.
Cameron came from almost nowhere in a very short period, as I recall. The betting challenge is spotting Labour’s Cameron.
There isn’t any younger candidate in Labour who has that kind of buzz about them AFAICS.
Jarvis is also not in Parliament but is a mayor. Does Sheffield merge the role with PCC too? I don’t know. He has flirted with a leadership bid in the past but never made it to the starting post. Like Burnham he lacks a particularly notable big political achievement.
The weaknesses they both have are of being yet more London Labour MPs and both being lifelong political careerists. Really Labour needs someone with a 'real' background (i.e. who has worked at something significant outside the overlapping worlds of politics, journalism, PR, lobbying and pressure groups). But then even the Tories current and previous two leaders all fail that test
Andy Burnham does not fix that.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barnsley_Central_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
For others it only serves to underline their nervous embarrassment at their country, and in others still their outright hostility to it. Labour have moved from the third (Corbyn) to the second (Starmer) but have some way to go get to the first (Blair, Wilson). It sounds glib but if you want to understand the rot at the electability of the modern Labour Party, you need look no further than Emily Thornberry’s 2014 tweets about flags.
As for New Labour simply being a Tory government with a red rose logo, I’m no fan of New Labour but even I wouldn’t go just far. One of the reasons why Labour were elected in 1997 was because the main issue shifted from the economy - where Labour had moved rightward - to public services, where Labour were perceived as being a party that would invest in public services where the Tories hadn’t. Labour were also seen as a much more socially liberal party in comparison to the Tories at that time.
Andy Burnham at least appears to have some idea of what Labour in the 2020s ought to be. Many of Labour’s establishment figures are lacking in that regard, and that has been seen across the last decade or so.
The speech changed everything.
It was a triumph.
https://www.newstatesman.com/uk-politics/2010/02/david-cameron-speech-leadership
Here it is:
https://www.conservativehome.com/video/2015/12/watch-cameron-the-2005-conference-speech-that-turned-the-leadership-election-around.html
https://order-order.com/people/dan-jarvis/
Though I guess some might argue it’s not all that different to being in government.
Is there anyone in Labour who is currently being so tipped? I haven’t seen any names put forward in that way.
It was perfectly legit for him to choose to leave the House of Commons during the Corbyn Years. But it does have an air of moving to Switzerland for the duration of World War Two. To be launching squibs against Starmer from his current perch really isn't on.
I'm not sure the current Labour Party is leadable by anyone.
Its problems really began when Brown went off-message.
Cameron wasn't being widely tipped at all. I know this for a fact.
Even in 2005 he was trailing in the race until that moment when he wowed the party faithful.
Cameron was shadow education secretary, a minor role, and he was a shadow in more than one meaning of the word. There are plenty of similar shadows in the Labour party.
It's always this way. The great leaders of the future seize the moment. It happened with Tony Blair who was NOT about to become leader until John Smith tragically dropped dead from a heart attack.
That's not true. He is an MP. He also has a lot of the right credentials.
However, I think you are quite correct to point out his lack of a particularly notable big political achievement, although I'd rather have someone with real life experience than a career politician. He has plenty, not only in his military career but in his personal life.
There's another aspect with Jarvis. A few years back he was being tipped, including by a friend of mine from his constituency. However, he had other priorities in his family life and wanted to back away. His wife died from bowel cancer and he wanted to concentrate on bringing up his children.
I think he's a good man. Possibly too good to be a party leader.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1367974/MP-Dan-Jarvis-Widowed-father-juggling-politics-bringing-2-children.html
The key is less fetishistic, to show real pride in the peoples and land of Britain and a viable vision of the future. There is plenty to be proud of in Britain's radical tradition, and of social reform. Burnham shows how it can be done, but I see him as kingmaker* rather than king.
*probably queenmaker in reality. I think if Starmer steps down, and under Labour rules a coup is very difficult, it will be Rayner or Nandy. Not because they are female or northern, but because they are the best candidates.
I wouldn’t really say Labour’s differences with the Tories on social issues was just ‘feel good stuff’ given that the Tories had a real problem being seen as the party of social conservatives out of touch with the modern world for a good while.
Labour’s issues began when Blair decided to invade Iraq. His competence and legacy went from being defined by domestic issues, to a contentious foreign policy issue.
Brown’s mistakes came into play from 2005/2006 with the whole 10p tax rate scandal.
Rachel Reeves has flat, droning, nasal tones, ergo...
Even if you think your boss is a bit of a duffer.
Especially if you think your boss is a bit of a duffer.
But perhaps more difficult to fix is the modern Labour tradition or being all a bit embarrassed by the idea of nation states and in particular, of Britain’s complex history. It is made worse because the core media mouthpieces of the centre left amplify this tendency, which will make it quite difficult for a Blair figure to emerge from obscurity and reach the top.
Labour are in danger of becoming an irrelevance, no matter who their leader is
They need to break away from the Corbyn wing entirely, and move away from the woke agenda
The Mail on Sunday has a poll that is stark for the labour party and explains just why Boris is so far ahead at present
The Greens are a real threat to Labour and the Lib Dems and if they are being frank and honest, then they have no answer to this crisis unless they can coalesce around a more acceptable and popular policy platform in conjunction with the greens, (minus the XR factor), otherwise conservative governments are likely here to stay for a very long time
There were a number of articles on Cameron from 2002 onwards in the Times and Telegraph suggesting he had what it would take. There was frequent mention of him by other MPs on TV and radio, usually bracketed with Osborne, Johnson and Gove. There was a documentary on Michael Howard in 2004 that mentioned him as a long term leadership contender. Gossip in the PCP suggested he and Gove might be realistic leadership contenders for a 2009 leadership election should Labour have won again.
So if you didn’t know this it was because you weren’t paying attention.
As it happens, he bobbed up much more quickly than expected, partly through his own gambling instincts, partly through that speech and partly because David Davis turned in such a dismal performance. But that doesn’t mean he emerged from nowhere.
Similarly, Blair was tipped as a potential leader from the mid-1980s onwards, although he was thought to be behind Brown in the Buggins Turn stakes.
And I say again, I don’t see or hear the same commentary about any current Labour MP.
The political genius of Cameron and Osborne and indeed Blair and Brown is that they were able to overcome similar disadvantages after long periods in opposition but this is rare. Burnham has cabinet experience albeit this is something of a mixed blessing. More significantly, he has current executive experience as Mayor of Greater Manchester. I don't see anyone else in the Labour party offering this range of experience from which he has presumably learned.
His problem is that this is all happening just a bit too quick for him. He needs SKS to hang on another couple of years so that he can do at least a reasonable stint as a second time Mayor and then find a seat. It is looking increasingly likely that the void at the top of the Labour party will have been filled by someone else by then.
As for Reeves, lets see if she can make more impact that Dodds did. They are both smart and good with numbers but that is not enough in politics. Reeves needs to start by being noticed, a trick Dodds did not manage.
I got my second zeneca, no side effects at all this time. I have a swathe of acquaintances receiving their first Pfizer in recent and coming days, somewhere along the way supply of Pfizer has really come on stream. Steady as she goes and in a few weeks this drama about Indian Covid will be forgotten, as we tend towards about 90% of adults with antibodies.
Lib Dem brand still tarnished. UK greens a less professional and attractive proposition than for example their German counterparts. There is a gaping space for someone to fill. It might be a future Labour leader. But it might not.
What be fascinating if someone who really knew what they were doing politically got hold of the Green Party and had a clause 4 moment with the wilder XR crowd.
And was David Lammy something under Brown?
Thin crop, to be fair.
Rayner[sp] has made a silly mistake.
Either support your boss (publicly, at least) or mount a leadership challenge. All she's done is undermine without removing Starmer, increasing division within her own party.
He carries the same Brexit baggage as Starmer but I think is a far more capable communicator and parliamentary performer. He could be Labour’s Howard figure with ease I’d have thought. Steady the ship, stop the bleed, promote new blood and set it up for a Labour government in 2028.
If Angela Raynor is the answer then the wrong question is being asked. Sure, she has personality and ideas. But she’s not going to be elected as PM and it will be back to square 1 after the next election.
I think the likelihood now is that the next Labour leadership election takes place after SKS has lost the next election. Burnham could easily present himself as a candidate for e.g., the Leigh constituency in 2024 and be in Parliament as an MP for the next leadership election, resigning the Mayoralty.
Burnham can be at the racecourse in time.
Is there going to be a leadership election before 2024?
Labour are loyal to their leaders. But, it is also in the interests of the successor that SKS owns the coming defeat. And after the defeat, it will be easier.
First, the next leader needs to be facing someone other than Johnson, and I suspect Johnson will now go after GE 2004. Problems build up for PMs and gradually their popularity is chipped away. Johnson will go when he has become seriously unpopular.
Second, the Labour party will be easier to manage after another defeat. It is the defeats that enabled Blair to take control and impose his will. Whilst Labour does not need another Blair, they do need to buckle down under the vision of a single leader.
So, from the POV of the successor, I think you don't want to take over right now. You let SKS do some of the grunt work, and you really hope he doesn't lose too badly in GE 2024.
Hell, yeah.
Especially if it works for other politicians of the late 2010s.
Brooks Newmark, who resigned in sexts scandal, lobbied him on behalf of Chinese supplier
He got "urgent" help and had contract signed in days
W @GeorgeGreenwood @Direthoughts
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0ed3468a-b5aa-11eb-a803-dd7acc9bc346?shareToken=d1c8fcc1c13ec77442ac22c16b1decb8
https://twitter.com/Aiannucci/status/1393835557969661955
https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/1393271922595667971
I haven’t watched his recent career but he became a bit of a media darling when he refused to lockdown unless he got more compensation for his area.
Perhaps standing up for his area. But IIRC he didn’t get any more money than other areas and more people died as a result of his actions.
Is he objectively that good?
https://twitter.com/albannach87/status/1393702351798738945?s=21
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/boris-johnson-india-travel-b1848100.html https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1393836884770574336/photo/1
I searched google for "David Cameron" from 1/1/2002 to 1/1/2004 and found an article he wrote in the Guardian about Macedonia and an Oxford Mail story about local MP visiting a school. (Also, don't think he was the 18yo student David Cameron who set fire to his friend dressed as a mummy in toilet paper https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/student-set-fire-paper-mummy-2491691 )
Extending my search to 2004 there was this from August
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/columnists/article-314340/Love-Tory-Conservatives-golden-girl-married-man.html
Which is a story about his stepfather-in-law having an affair with his boss's political secretary who happens to be his son's godmather. Usual political incest stuff.
Says of Cameron "In her role as political adviser, one figure Miss Whetstone has helped promote is David Cameron, 37, the Conservative MP for Witney in Oxfordshire and a happily married father-of-two (with whom she is not involved romantically).
Eton-educated Cameron, who is in charge of policy co-ordination for the party, is the stepson-in-law of Viscount Astor, 52, a former government whip and Opposition spokesman in the House of Lords." No potential future leader stuff.
Somewhat amusingly followed by this about Boris
"Three weeks before publication of his first novel, Seventy Two Virgins, preening Spectator editor and Tory MP Boris Johnson has uncharacteristically come over all modest.
For I hear that at the last minute he has cut from the book, which is heavily autobiographical - the hero is a bicycle-riding MP - a number of sex scenes and details of an affair.
Why could this be? According to publishing sources, twice married Boris was concerned that readers might take the louche behaviour in the novel too literally."
Did manage to find a July 2004 Standard article that's along the lines you're talking about..
https://www.standard.co.uk/hp/front/could-public-school-toff-be-future-leader-6959153.html
"Virtually unknown outside the Westminster village, MPs such as David Cameron and George Osborne are hailed by their friends as the answer to New Labour's dominance"
Again rather amusingly followed by a Boris take..
"Mr Johnson goes down a storm at Tory conference fringes, but his Dulux dog fringe is the main image the public have of him. His appearances on Have I Got News For You have obscured his political talents.
Labour MPs are delighted at the idea that he could ever be a contender for leader. "It would be a dream come true if Boris became Tory leader. The man is a joke," one minister said recently."
But nothing else, and I've been through all 13 pages of hits on google for the 3 years..
Am I looking in the wrong place?
We should be looking for someone who is already open to working with other parties. Which probably knocks Streeting out as too tribal. I might put a few quid on Stella.
Lord Lister apologised last night, said he should have recused himself from the key meeting
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/35bfe9ee-b5ad-11eb-8f2a-87b6de480dfc?shareToken=a3db448562248d1917ff27132fbd86dd
And the only one they made any progress on (Brexit) is so badly fucked up the guy who did it says it can't continue
We don’t know who the “senior ally” of @BorisJohnson quoted by @Telegraph is. We can guess. @DavidGHFrost well knows that if the Northern Ireland Protocol is “dead in the water”, so is the “oven-ready” Brexit. Either that or the Good Friday Agreement. /1.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/05/15/northern-ireland-protocol-dead-water-senior-ally-boris-johnson/
Everyone knows that London is one country and the south east quite another (look at polling figures, which are startling). The north is the same.