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Scotland’s election – how the pollsters did – politicalbetting.com
Scotland’s election – how the pollsters did – politicalbetting.com
One of the great things about completing elections is that we can examine the final result against what the pollsters were recording. Above is the Wikipedia table of the final polls for the constituency section.
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They consistently overestimated Alba, when we Scotch experts rightly said Alba were going to struggle.
Yeah, they persistently had Alba to poll 6%
Regarding Burnham. No borough voting information as previously. However, there is turnout data.
Largest in Trafford, Stockport and Bury. (5 out of 7 Tory MP's).
Lowest in Salford, Manchester and Wigan. (9 out of 10 Labour MP's).
Conclusion. He wins votes from folk who don't usually vote for his Party.
Another mayor used to do the same.
I think Labour only won five in England, Durham, Merseyside, West Midlands (odd), Northumbria and South Yorkshire.
Every other one is Tory, including a massive majority for Donna Jones in Hampshire - who got north of 68% on transfers - rendering my spoilt ballot laughable.
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1391868399706386433?s=21
Idea is to get someone from one side who is reasonably acceptable to the other. Ideally from the side that is more committed to its position.
For Labour, think the key divide is Leave versus Remain, not Left versus Right.
One difference between Ireland pre-WWI and Canada post-WW1, is the absence of lost leader brought down because he was on the wrong side of the divide. In Parnell's case he created the divide; in Laurier's case it was conscription. Either way, they were both dead & out of the frame - directly - when the split was resolved.
In Labour's case, there is no great martyr. Just a boatload of recrimination and a crew of lesser lights.
https://twitter.com/GerryHassan/status/1391821463724990464?s=20
And in any case do we want to open that door given its one of the reasons used as to why Scotland should separate from the UK, in that some remainer areas should have been allowed to stay in the EU?
As an example of where that has gone wrong I see your Parnell and Laurier and raise you one Theresa May MP. Elected leader as a Remainer who was deemed acceptable to the Leavers, her Premiership was an unmitigated disaster with absolutely no redeeming features whatsoever.
Instead when she was replaced with a Leaver in Boris who vanquished his opponents and then chucked the defeated rabble still opposed to the policy out of the party, the party went on to achieve what May had failed to do and on to a landslide majority.
Sometimes to succeed you need to unite. But sometimes the only way to do so is to crush your enemies, to see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentations of their women.
"Novavax has pushed back its timeline and will apply for authorisation of its vaccine in the UK, US and Europe in the third quarter of the year as the company struggles to quickly collate the data required for submission.
“It’s just a long process,” Stanley Erck, chief executive of Novavax, told the Financial Times. “Our guidance had been that we’d get the project done by the second quarter and I’m now saying … we can’t get it all done by the end of June so it’s going to slip into the third quarter unfortunately.” "
Probably means Noravax won't end up being a significant part of our vaccine mix? A shame, but increasing first doses should be easier in the second half of June in any case once the first wave of second vaccinations has been completed.
I can see the Orks and Shet wanting to go indy-indy. Become vegan tax havens like Man or the Channel Isles but greener
Basically, the SNP is Glasgow and Dundee and odd bits of the Hebrides
It was a resounding success in Ireland after all.
These areas were kingdoms in their own right, like Scotland. Strathclyde, the Orkneys, Deira, Bernicia, Fife....
Deira is entirely in England now while I'm being a PB pedant.
@ExeterCouncil
PCC Election Result - HERNANDEZ, ALISON SELINA (The Conservative Party Candidate) is duly elected as Police and Crime Commissioner for the Devon & Cornwall Police area.
https://bit.ly/3f9sxzB"
https://twitter.com/ExeterCouncil/status/1391872615082516483
My hometown was bombed when I was a kid, seven decades after partition. There was frequent fighting throughout all that period, off and on again. That was a civil war.
I'm a Neoclassical kinda guy.
EDIT: @dixiedean beat me to it!
The expat English Saganistas will rise up and brandishing their zimmer frames & empty bottles of English sparkling wine, run the dreadful Natz out of their douce wee towns.
Or possibly not if Antiques Road Trip is on the telly.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-57052502
edit: or more Delacroix really
https://twitter.com/bijans/status/1391880497547075589
CEO friend demands I post a more accurate version of what he said “you can’t be a bunch of knuckleheads for 32 years and be brilliant in the 33rd year”
Not being very good will haunt him much, much more.
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1391849379280023552
(I see I am not alone in this thought.)
https://twitter.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/1391868944093433856?s=20
As far as consolations go in the event of Sindy it sounds lovely, but realistically and practically it sounds like a no goer and an even bigger tinder box. You have to go back a long long way to the borders being significantly different, and despite what the Wessex regionalists might say ancient kingdoms don't means squat.
1942-1944 Northern Campaign
1956-1962 Border Campaign
Not at the level of a civil war (but then, neither were the Troubles by most definitions of "civil war"), but it's a bit of a misconception to think that all was sweetness and light in Northern Ireland prior to the late '60s.
That's the reality, even if you find it photogenic.
Kier Starmer telling on obvious truth, truthfully ('this table is brown') sounds less truthful and more evasive than Boris or Andy telling you the dog ate their homework. Not his fault, really. He's relatively inexperienced as a politican.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQu_NLRvULM
A man appearing confident in his skin whether you agree with him or not.
Yes, he could be a new kind of Labour leader, and win
And the substantive point is fine - we can integrate fares and connectivity in public transport in GM better. And it's slow to get from Middleton to Media City.
But if you know your GM transport, there's a few questions. What's Market Street tram stop got to do with it? The video shows the bus at Piccadilly Gardens bus station, then a brief complaint about the buses not dropping you where the trams are, then him getting on a tram at Piccadilly Gardens tram stop (for that is where the trams to Media City go from). WHICH IS RIGHT NEXT TO PICCADILLY GARDENS BUS STATION. It couldn't be any closer.
And orbital links 'like other cities have' - well, London to some extent, but what other cities? And why would an orbital link work any better? Media City isn't far enough out to be on any orbital link.
It's a well put together video making some good points, with lashings of layered on authenticity - but is it necessarily any more 'honest' than anything Boris puts out? Maybe it doesn't matter. Maybe we prefer the carefully crafted stories of good politicians to actual dull truth.
You should try it.
https://twitter.com/ShivAroor/status/1391819833860247552
Armani suits, eyeliner, and platitudes.
His moaning is reasonable. Why is it double or more the price to use public transport outside London? Why, if it is so wonderful, was TFL never privatised?
It is a pertinent question to which I have never heard an answer.
Ranting about food banks, wallpaper and Palestine having proved not to be a vote winner.
In 2015, Seattle embarked on a bold new experiment.
What if instead of the richest donors having an outsized political influence, Seattle residents of all backgrounds and incomes had the same opportunity to donate to political campaigns?
That was the vision behind Seattle’s Democracy Vouchers, now in their third election cycle. This year, Democracy Vouchers are for the first time being used in the city’s mayoral race.
Seattle is the first city in the country to implement a voucher program. Through the program, residents are given four, $25 vouchers to allocate to the candidates of their choice.
In the first election cycle to use vouchers in 2017, nearly 21,000 people donated through the voucher program, more than twice the number that made a cash contribution to a political candidate, according to a report by the University of Washington.
In the 2019 election cycle, participation dramatically increased, with more than 38,000 people using the program, including more than 80% first-time voucher users, a Georgetown University report showed.
Even with the advances, however, only fewer than 7% of eligible residents used vouchers in 2019. . . .
While the Georgetown report showed that voucher users were more representative of the electorate than cash donors who gave more than $25, the largest gains in voucher use came from white, older, higher-income residents who regularly voted.
The role of independent expenditures also complicates the picture. In the 2019 election, for example, unrestricted money spent on Seattle elections more than doubled, led by contributions by Amazon. Yet even with the colossal money dump, the candidates bankrolled by business largely lost.
Currently, all but one of the seven leading mayoral candidates are people of color, and two are Native American. More candidates could be announced in the coming days and weeks, but the diversity of the current pool is remarkable.
In addition to the racial diversity of the mayoral candidate pool, the wealth and income diversity is significant as well. As The Seattle Times reported late last month, of the candidates who were in the race at the time of publication, net worth ranged from $0 to $15 million. Unlike in 2019 — when both final candidates were multimillionaires — this year, through the voucher program, a candidate with one of the highest fundraising totals is also the one with $0 personal net worth.
Bridge scene was the only good bit. Even though it (like the rest) was dumb as hell.
Reptilicus (1961) - Langebro
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KxMLrq9CIqo
Further edit to the above - despite a slow bus and a slow tram, you'd be unlucky to take an hour and a quarter to get from Middleton to Media City at 7.15am. Google maps (whose public transport journey planner is better than most) reckons about an hour.
The point of the story is still valid. But there's a bit of craft to the storytelling.
We'll enable more state aid, to allow us to target people and areas left behind.
But, of course, over time, the clammering for it gets louder, the reasons for giving it get stretched, and it becomes a politician's plaything. National "champions" are encouraged, because jobs depend on them.
And we'll end up with a new generation of British Leylands.
And then we'll need another leader with the courage to change things.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57055340
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/10/queens-speech-photo-id-future-elections-social-care
Boris, Patel & Co must have had a seance to summon the spirit of Henry Addington, 1st Viscount Sidmouth. The most reactionary Home Secretaries & Prime Ministers in the history of the Tory Party. Which is saying a LOT.
Though we should NOT give either Boris OR Secret POTUS any new ideas!
The Churchill Project
@WinstonCProject
"Boris Johnson’s voter ID plans ‘illiberal solution for non-existent problem’, says senior Tory."
"David Davis urges Govt to abandon 'Pointless Proposals'."
"The "Unnecessary" and "Pointless" proposals should be abandoned by the Govt.""
https://twitter.com/WinstonCProject/status/1391724638309396482
An issue that matters to and affects millions - social care - where we were told the PM already had a worked up solution, has been shamelessly parked, yet again.
Meanwhile an issue that matters to next to no-one, where there is no proven problem of any scale to solve, goes into the Queen’s Speech. Despite independent experts advising that the proposal is misguided and damaging. Despite the government’s own trials having failed, by any objective assessment, to demonstrate any benefit while having the effect of turning hundreds away and denying them their rightful vote.
The requirement that anyone without a passport or driving license must apply to their local council, in advance, for a special voting ID card, or have their vote taken away, is straight out of the US Republican playbook.
Britons will have to show photo ID to vote in future general elections, ministers are poised to confirm this week, as a means of tackling fraud which critics claim could deter poorer and ethnic minority voters from taking part in democracy.
The problem is not that it "could deter poorer and ethnic minority voters" but that it could disenfranchise them because they do not already have passports or driving licences. Deterrence, which suggests the Guardian thinks these voters have something to hide, does not come into it.
The PP in Spain has suddenly taken a lead in the opinion polls.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Spanish_general_election#Voting_intention_estimates
Complaining about this is woke.
And I suspect is being introduced for the same reason - to bring in ID cards by stealth.
Which is (a) a sign of cowardly this government is that it doesn’t have the fortitude to admit it and (b) will mean that all the safeguards we would need against our very corrupt and ineffectual civil service misusing them will not be put in place.