These elections remind us that leader ratings and supplementaries are a better predictor of electora
These elections remind us that leader ratings and supplementaries are a better predictor of electoral outcomes than voting intention – politicalbetting.com
How well or badly do you think the following are doing at their jobs? (% of adults in Wales) MARK DRAKEFORD57% well / 34% badly BORIS JOHNSON39% well / 54% badlyhttps://t.co/QkWuB7oO4D pic.twitter.com/b8GkaRDTGH
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Also given both Drakeford and Sturgeon were well rated, why did only the former significantly outperform the polls?
So a 10% tory lead. YouGov were right then.
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1391028419245268994?s=20
And as below, YouGov were spot on. The tories won with a projected national 10% lead (Railings & Thrasher).
That is, the epic struggle / soap opera of current Queen Fish vs former King Fish.
The Official Monster Raving Loony Party.
And based on his smashing electoral performance, in the face of an entrenched Labour machine AND a rising Tory tide, the right & proper person to lead OMRLP into the future is obvious:
Count Binface.
Beyond receiving (I think) the highest total vote every recorded for a (official) Loony, Binface shares a key attribute with the late great Screaming Lord Sutch - nobility!
Ain't that a federal offense? Assume it rarely happens, at least with pharma.
Is that true? And if so, why not?
The only question now is can Labour do anything about it before the next GE?
"Those seats last fought in 2016 could prove to be horrible for Labour, where they actually finished one point ahead of the Tories on 31%, Tories on 30%, LibDems 15%, UKIP 12%. Looking at projections for these seats - where they won 1326 Councillors to the Tories' 842 - may be where the gloom in Labour's internal machine is coming from."
Who’s that alternative candidate?
I think he stays until the next election, which will probably be spring 2024 despite the FTPA repeal being in the Queen’s Speech next week. The PM will want voters to see the result of infrastructure investment and an economy on the rise, which may not be the case in 2023 - against a 2019 GDP baseline anyway, it’s easy to get 6% ‘growth’ this year when we lost 9% last year!
Sounds like a sure fire way to give the anti-vaxxers a shot in the arm....
Still, not a great look for the Olympic games if it turns out the Japanese vaccine supply comes from a plant that couldn't get its vaccines approved due to contamination.
...
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/newe.12228
Labour emerged from the December 2019 general election badly battered and bruised. In the wake of a contest whose principal purpose was to bring an end to the seemingly endless debate about how Brexit should be settled, it found itself with fewer MPs than at any time since 1935. It is little wonder that the party is debating how it can improve its fortunes now that Brexit has been resolved.
The search for an answer is, however, less straightforward than many in the party seem to appreciate. Although a dominant narrative as to the way forward seems to have emerged, there is an alternative perspective that raises questions about the viability of this approach.
The explanation is that voters didn’t feel like giving governments a kicking when said governments were in the middle of potentially saving their lives through the vaccination programme.
Good morning, everyone.
Cheers to Mr. Away, for his Count Binface tips.
If anything sums up the state of Scottish politics it is today’s result in Dundee West. A city hit hard by the country’s drug crisis, re-electing a man sacked from government for failing to tackle the drugs crisis, with an increased majority. Just depressing.
https://twitter.com/kevwodonnell/status/1390714475972603917?s=20
..nearly two‐thirds (64 per cent) of Labour's support in 2017 in pro‐Leave seats that elected a Labour MP came from those who had voted Remain. In short, any success in winning back red wall seats will be heavily reliant on retaining the support of Remain voters in these seats
And three bottles of promising-looking red wine as presents.
On topic, I think that, while Mr B2 is generally speaking correct, Labour hasn't broken back through with the clear message that it had in, say, 1945 and 1997. And, TBH, the rather brutal dropping of Angela Rayner isn't going to heal wounds.
Perhaps he has someone specific in mind for the job? But even then, he’s sacked her in a brutal, public way, when had he simply wanted a new face he could have eased her out of the way more sensitively.
The only sense I can make of it is that, in his despair, Starmer has been watching Kinnock and Blair speeches to Labour conferences on loop, and leapt up suddenly determined to start his own civil war with the Left.
Presumably QC could identify and clear non-contaminated batches.
The number of ballot papers rejected on first preference votes was as follows:-
(a) Unmarked 18,071
(b) Uncertain 8,672
(c) Voting for too many 87,214
(d) Writing identifying voter 167
(e) Want of official mark 77
Total 114,201
The number of ballot papers rejected on second preference votes was as follows:-
(a) Uncertain 965
(b) Voting for too many 7,037
Total 8,002
In particular, those voters who expressed no first preference or who voted for too many candidates were very likely confused by the ballot paper. That is 112,232 voters.
In addition, it was acceptable and logical for supporters of Sadiq Khan and Shaun Bailey in particular to cast only a first preference vote. This was done by 319,978 voters. However, it is arguable that the 265,343 voters who cast the same first and second preference votes misunderstood either the process or the ballot paper.
Ultimately I think Labour needs to choose between going after its old voters and effectively take for granted its current core vote or going after remainers in places like Woking. Personally I think the first of those is the way to go.
https://twitter.com/maxwalden_/status/1391275043166973956?s=20
You actually have to vote twice across two different "column A"s. My quick reaction is that the biggest columns on the page are A and B.
How are these things designed / regulated? Is this another Electoral Commission fail, or is it designed by the Authority "Elections Department"?
Betting Post
F1: this week's money-burning exercise is 2.1 on there being 17.5 classified finishers. That's happened both in two-thirds of recent races* and two-thirds of 2021 races.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2021/05/spain-pre-race-2021.html
Edited extra bit: *in Spain.
I think his opponents did underestimate the Drake, & I myself thought he would lose some seats. To match Rhodri at his peak is a great achievement.
However, the Drake has two enormous pieces of luck.
1. The Welsh Tory leader 'RT' is abysmal, and the standard of the Welsh Tories in the Senedd is low (even by the prostrate, stomach on the floor standard in the Senedd).
2. Plaid Cymru is riven with factionalism. In all the three PC target seats from 2016 (Llanelli, Blaenau Gwent, Cardiff West), the Plaid Cymru hierarchy has quarrelled with the local party. In fact, McEvoy and Copner (the candidates who came close in Cardiff West and BG in 2016) are no longer even in Plaid Cymru. You should nurse your target seats, not argue with them.
Like Sturgeon, the Drake also benefits from a split opposition -- eg Wrecsam would have fallen if the opposition had not been so neatly divided.
So, I am not sure that there are wider lessons for Labour from the good performance in Wales.
As in all Senedd elections, the party that really won is the Didn't Vote Party. Turnout was again lower than 50 per cent.
I showed him the London mayoral ballot and he said he thought that it was rigged!
I think AV would be better and clearly the deposit needs to go up substantially in London.
I think that the 'deal' with India, where people can go either way for two years might blow up in the Government's face; there are a lot more jobs here that young Indians would be willing to do than the other way around.
The First Minister faces two obstacles to a fresh vote: Boris Johnson and the Scottish people’s own caution.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2021/05/nicola-sturgeon-wants-second-scottish-referendum-will-she-get-one
There was a steady movement in the polling throughout the Spring towards Labour.
That was -- at least in part -- the vaccine rollout. After a slow start, the Drake the took the lead in the Vaccine Four Nations contest.
Of course pretty much everyone and their aunty know who Salmond is..
The UK is now self-evidently 4 nations. The topic of the day is the all-dominance of the Tories but that is in England and only in England. Wales has just handed Labour as much power and as many seats as it's ever had. Scotland has just given the SNP its biggest ever vote and elected a comfortable majority of independence MSPs.
And then we have NornIron where it's casting away from being an integral part of the UK has seen the downfall of Come on Arlene and a resumption of rioting.
None of the other home nations are going to agree with Boris Johnson blustering away that we are all one happy United Kingdom under him with a massive Tory mandate. That is only true in England.
It's time for Boris to step up and seize the opportunity. If he recognises that his power only exists in England and that the other nations have different ideas, he can remake the UK fit for the future and be a legend. Or, he can thump the conference table as he does the dispatch box, demand fealty and be the loser who breaks up the UK.
https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1391279496280563713?s=20
Welsh Conservatives celebrated its best ever Senedd election, winning 16 seats, a gain of 6.
The Conservatives came second, pushing Plaid Cymru into third place.
Expressing your own dislike of Johnson is fine but don't project it onto spurious nonsense on behalf of the rest of the Welsh electorate.
Ta.
The SNP this time fell short, gaining only 1 seat, and more Scottish people voted for unionist parties than independence.
Another example of a poster projecting their own wishful thinking on behalf of the electorate and failing to read what has actually happened.
The SNP failed in their objective to win an outright majority. The Sunday Telegraph today is right: the pressure on Scottish independence is now off. There won't be one.
This was a triumphant election for the union. Welsh Labour, an avowedly unionist party, won with the Welsh Conservatives, an avowedly unionist party, second. Plaid were a poor third.
Unionism won across the whole UK by a clear and convincing majority.
And why use A and B to describe the first and second preference boxes?
Depending whether you include the voters who made the same first and second choices, the error rate was somewhere between 4 and 14 per cent.
Munificent is a synonym for 'princely' and we all know Drakeford is the true Prince of Wales.
In 2021 the SNP gained 2.386m votes
In 2011 the SNP gained 1.779m votes
I think I am projecting my ability to count...
After Thatcherism and Corbynism, welcome to Houchenism, the doctrine of Tees Valley mayor, Ben Houchen, and endorsed by a whopping 73% of Teesside voters. This 34-year-old northern loyalist is the Tory party’s contemporary version of Michael Heseltine, the lone standard bearer at Thatcher’s zenith of a willingness to intervene “at breakfast, lunch and supper”. Houchen is today’s Tory carrying the Heseltine torch, intervening to reinvent Teesside with the massive backing of his electorate. And a generation later, this Heseltine de nos jours has the backing, not the loathing, of the prime minister. It will not have escaped Boris Johnson’s notice, a self-described Brexity Hezza, that Houchen’s intervention is working big time, economically and politically.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/08/houchenism-the-brand-of-can-do-tory-threatening-the-left-and-right-old-guard
I’m thinking this one will have the top three run away into the distance, but be the usual bunfight behind them for the minor points positions. Last year was a two-stop race, but it was hotter in August.
Perez in the RB is quickly suffering from Albon’s problem last season, that he’s not close enough to Max to stop the Dutchman getting played by two Mercs on the race strategy.
In Wales, Labour have been very comfortable with Welsh national Identity and the politics that go with it. The red dragon has always been part of the left in Wales. It’s obvious.
Whereas in Scotland the union-independence debate has complicated the issue and split Labour front Scottish identity and the Saltire. In England the previous shenanigans of the far right coupled with Brexit have seriously distanced the left for this sort of politics. On,y when Labour coupled itself with the local identity ( Manchester) did it succeed.
I am sorry that those on here who hate Johnson didn't get the results they wanted but please try to step back and have a little objectivity. You will continue to make mistakes and call the wrong results if you are myopic. Successful Psephology and political betting means bracketing one's own desires and seeing a thing for what it actually is, not what one wishes were the case.
In the words of Marcus Aurelius, “This thing, what is it in itself, in its own constitution? What is its substance and material?”
Lord knows, I never rated Starmer, but I did not think he would be this bad this quickly.
At times Perez seems to have the pace. I think the problem's psychological, which doesn't speak well of Red Bull that it keeps happening (and that two good drivers, Vettel and Ricciardo, chose to leave).
Are the people saying "no total vote majority, no mandate for Independence" also taking their logic and saying "no total vote majority for Brexit, we stay in the EU"?
No? Shame...
The electoral results are clear. If a minority of voters get to give a clear electoral mandate to the Tories to get Brexit done, that same electoral mandate is there for Scottish Independence. Unless (a) the posters think a different set of rules apply to Scotland which is the exact point the SNP are making to pick up their record votes tally or (b) you're just screaming hypocrites.
I'm guessing it is a Jeremy Thorpe effect, guilty or not guilty it is a very poor narrative to lead and campaign from.
I think you and I discussed on here that Salmond was highly rated in this year's polls by Scottish Conservatives, people who would never vote for him, that support was mainly due to him causing difficulties for the Sturgeon/The SNP/Scottish independence.
However it is also the Tory position and indeed the Lib Dem one. The three parties differ on what they see as "better".
-54 Johnson. -60 Salmond.
The point I am making is that the relationship to the vote is not simple.
As long as there is a compact to have one whip in Westminster, they will be able to win more seats by saying different things to the different electorates.
Populations grow and turnouts vary so the Trump 'I won more votes' argument is a poor one.
I am more and more convinced that Labour is suffering from the same identity crisis that has hit centre-left parties all over the democratic world since the deindustrialisation and the collapse of Communism. However, that was masked to a large extent in the 90s and 00s for Labour by the political genius of Tony Blair and the Conservative mistakes that he ruthlessly exploited.
From that, it follows that Labour's best strategy is to find another political genius, and wait for the Conservatives to screw up. Not a very satisfying one, and maybe very long-term, but maybe more effective than targeting whatever micro-sliver of the electoral is fashionable that week.
THat's certainly one definition of tactical voting! And there was quite a bit on both sides, especially if one includes the difference between constituency and list votes.
This is not the first time. There were 500k rejected ballots across Mayoral and Assembly elections in 2004.
Source:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2004/jun/12/uk.london1
And there were 142k rejected ballots in the 2007 Holyrood Elections.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/6637387.stm
Anyone know what steps were taken after the other times?
It seems that in London the lesson of 2004 was not learnt. Unless there was a huge "spoil your vote" campaign.
How many votes were rejected in Scotland this time, and have lessons been learnt there from 2007?
In 2019 Brexit was not settled. The Tories campaigned on Get Brexit Done. They won a majority of 80 despite a majority of votes being cast for parties who wanted to stop Brexit
In 2021 the union is not settled. The SNP and Greens campaigned for independence and won a majority of 8 despite a majority of votes being cast for unionist parties.
The same principle either applies to both of it is not a principle at all. The Tories clearly won the 2019 election. The pro-indy parties clearly won the 2021 election. The people who support "seats count not votes" argue the reverse north of the border. I am just enquiring as to if they are English supremacists or hypocrites.
"And a similar story with the regional list vote as well
Lab 38% / 26%"
It was 38% / 36%.....
So, your second argument. That seats count and not votes. There is an 8 seat majority for independence. You say seats won count and not votes cast. Great - 72 seats is a majority for independence in a parliament of 129.
So there is a mandate according to your own argument made to try and claim there is no mandate
You and I do not want an Independence referendum. I personally campaigned for candidates to stop it. We lost, they won. Here in the NE region we lost a LibDem MSP - pro union - for a Green MSP - pro independence.
I have the basic principle that democratic mandates always apply whether you like the result or not. What is your principle?
Early Blair -- with his boyish good looks, his nous, his ability to project warmth and compassion, his powerful communication skills, his intelligence & his articulacy -- was just a political magician. We'll never see his like again ...
Of course, he went mad.
Interesting thesis by Ailbhe Rea -
"But the result is even better news for the First Minister than is immediately apparent. Thanks to Alba, some of Sturgeon’s most vocal critics are no longer SNP members, and have not been admitted to the Scottish parliament. That not only applies to Alex Salmond himself, but [...] The same applies for a number of Sturgeon’s greatest critics: they are no longer members of the SNP and won’t be readmitted.
If Alex Salmond had set out to give his rival and former mentee a way to purge the members of her party who cause her the most trouble, he couldn’t have designed it better."
Whats the point of the Labour Party.. woke gets a mention.....
My point stands then that if the Tories could find someone charismatic it could be a significant long term boost.
Agreed it's taken for granted, but if that is going to bite them I dont think it will for awhile.
We seem to be on the hunt for differences rather than similarities these days, and of course if you go searching for it you will find it where none was before. Tell people they are different and they come to believe it - even Scotland and England are not as far apart on most issues as each suggests.
A split party, failures on running Scotland and a better organised opposition will start to wear her down.