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The voting ends on Super Thursday but – politicalbetting.com

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  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    sarissa said:

    kle4 said:

    @BritainElects

    ICYMI: our final Scottish parliament forecast - as polls close:

    SNP: 62 MSPs (-1)
    CON: 27 (-4)
    LAB: 24 (-)
    GRN: 11 (+5)
    LDEM: 5 (-)

    Chgs. w/ 2016
    65 seats needed for a majority

    Best that could be hoped for I suppose. I'd take it.
    The Scottish Parliament vote for another referendum comes about five minutes after that result. That's when the fun and games really gets started, of course. What happens when Johnson tells them, ever so politely, to fuck off?

    One thing's certain: this won't be resolved through the courts. The constitution is a reserved competence. The courts can't force the House of Commons to vote to grant a Section 30 order because the Scottish Parliament wants one, any more than they could force it to vote to abolish the monarchy or declare war on Botswana because that's what MSPs wanted.

    If Scotland's independence movement can't persuade the UK Parliament to change tack then they have only two options: to put up with it and wait for a more conciliatory Parliament to be elected, or attempt a revolution.
    In the absence of any Alba MSPs, any referendum bill will be postponed until

    a) Recovery from the pandemic is fairly evident;

    b) A Citizens’ Assembly has deliberated and reported on the future direction/ societal aims and ambitions of an independent Scotland and a successor to the ‘Scotland’s Future’ white paper is drawn up to reflect this (from the SNP manifesto).
    Why wasn't (B) done already prior to the election?

    A bit like space launches, the reality is that electorally there's a very narrow window where its possible to have a referendum. Leave it too long and its getting too close to the General Election to be viable. After the General Election, its then too close to the next Holyrood election to be viable too.

    Stall too long and its not not possible. 2022 to first half of 2023 is the only realistic window of opportunity - after that the next window of opportunity is about 2027 or 2028.
    How many months were there between the 2014 Independence referendum and the 2015 GE?
    That was cutting it as fine as was viable, plus it was at a time of the Fixed Term Parliament Act which won't exist by the time we reach 2023. Even if you expand it to autumn 2023, that doesn't extend the window of opportunity very far.

    Past autumn 2023 politics will be too dominated by the 2024 General (if we haven't had a 2023 one), after that it will be the 2025 Holyrood Election coming up and the window has been missed to have a referendum.
    Holyrood elections are on a five-year schedule now - so 2026 for the next Holyrood election. Easy enough to have a referendum between GE and Holyrood election given the Brexit referendum itself came in between two GEs one the year before and one after.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    sarissa said:

    kle4 said:

    @BritainElects

    ICYMI: our final Scottish parliament forecast - as polls close:

    SNP: 62 MSPs (-1)
    CON: 27 (-4)
    LAB: 24 (-)
    GRN: 11 (+5)
    LDEM: 5 (-)

    Chgs. w/ 2016
    65 seats needed for a majority

    Best that could be hoped for I suppose. I'd take it.
    The Scottish Parliament vote for another referendum comes about five minutes after that result. That's when the fun and games really gets started, of course. What happens when Johnson tells them, ever so politely, to fuck off?

    One thing's certain: this won't be resolved through the courts. The constitution is a reserved competence. The courts can't force the House of Commons to vote to grant a Section 30 order because the Scottish Parliament wants one, any more than they could force it to vote to abolish the monarchy or declare war on Botswana because that's what MSPs wanted.

    If Scotland's independence movement can't persuade the UK Parliament to change tack then they have only two options: to put up with it and wait for a more conciliatory Parliament to be elected, or attempt a revolution.
    In the absence of any Alba MSPs, any referendum bill will be postponed until

    a) Recovery from the pandemic is fairly evident;

    b) A Citizens’ Assembly has deliberated and reported on the future direction/ societal aims and ambitions of an independent Scotland and a successor to the ‘Scotland’s Future’ white paper is drawn up to reflect this (from the SNP manifesto).
    Why wasn't (B) done already prior to the election?

    A bit like space launches, the reality is that electorally there's a very narrow window where its possible to have a referendum. Leave it too long and its getting too close to the General Election to be viable. After the General Election, its then too close to the next Holyrood election to be viable too.

    Stall too long and its not not possible. 2022 to first half of 2023 is the only realistic window of opportunity - after that the next window of opportunity is about 2027 or 2028.
    How many months were there between the 2014 Independence referendum and the 2015 GE?
    That was cutting it as fine as was viable, plus it was at a time of the Fixed Term Parliament Act which won't exist by the time we reach 2023. Even if you expand it to autumn 2023, that doesn't extend the window of opportunity very far.

    Past autumn 2023 politics will be too dominated by the 2024 General (if we haven't had a 2023 one), after that it will be the 2025 Holyrood Election coming up and the window has been missed to have a referendum.
    I suspect the Fixed Term Parliament Act will continue, but will be ignored. When governments want elections, oppositions grant them.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Tory = UKIP

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,227

    Northumberland
    Cowpen ward

    Margaret Catherine RICHARDSON (Lab) 398 votes
    Adam Christopher PARSONS (Con) 378
    Barry William ELLIOTT (Ind) 70

    Labour hold

    2017 result
    Susan Davey Lab 414 53.8%
    Brian Erskine UKIP 180 23.4%
    Samantha Liddle C 134 17.4%
    Alisdair Gibbs-Barton LD 42 5.5%

    First & still the best! (Andrea, not Cowpen)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    BigRich said:

    Northumberland
    Cowpen ward

    Margaret Catherine RICHARDSON (Lab) 398 votes
    Adam Christopher PARSONS (Con) 378
    Barry William ELLIOTT (Ind) 70

    Labour hold

    2017 result
    Susan Davey Lab 414 53.8%
    Brian Erskine UKIP 180 23.4%
    Samantha Liddle C 134 17.4%
    Alisdair Gibbs-Barton LD 42 5.5%

    Lab 53% -> 47% so the vote held up fairly well.
    That's what i was thinking, but, (and this might be wrong) being a seat with a UKIP candidate last time and no equivalent this time, its all gone to Con and then a bit, in seats where there was no UKIP last time perhaps the Lab vote will be down more? possible?
    Worth noting that this just one single council result! I'd be slightly cautious of drawing too many conclusions.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,227
    rcs1000 said:

    BigRich said:

    Northumberland
    Cowpen ward

    Margaret Catherine RICHARDSON (Lab) 398 votes
    Adam Christopher PARSONS (Con) 378
    Barry William ELLIOTT (Ind) 70

    Labour hold

    2017 result
    Susan Davey Lab 414 53.8%
    Brian Erskine UKIP 180 23.4%
    Samantha Liddle C 134 17.4%
    Alisdair Gibbs-Barton LD 42 5.5%

    Lab 53% -> 47% so the vote held up fairly well.
    That's what i was thinking, but, (and this might be wrong) being a seat with a UKIP candidate last time and no equivalent this time, its all gone to Con and then a bit, in seats where there was no UKIP last time perhaps the Lab vote will be down more? possible?
    Worth noting that this just one single council result! I'd be slightly cautious of drawing too many conclusions.
    Don't be a killjoy!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Well we've had the first Blyth seat and it was a Lab hold!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,600
    rcs1000 said:

    Australia's international borders may not fully reopen until the middle or second half of 2022, trade minister says - Reuters

    I suspect lots of places won't fully open until they're 80+% vaccinated.

    And places like Australia, New Zealand, etc., are also (and even before the EU's meddling) back of the vaccine purchasing queue.
    Why is this? NZ has hardly vaccinated anyone, still, even now, I noticed this week. Why not? Have they dithered endlessly or fussed over the price? It seems they are storing up trouble as they can’t keep their borders closed forever.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    edited May 2021

    From the vote-2012 forums and the wonderful Jamie, this is his summary and prediction for Cowpen, which is pretty bang-on.

    Cowpen
    The ward covers northern Blyth. This is another solidly working class ward and includes the Bates coal mine which closed a relatively late 1986. This has long been a safe Labour ward and they easily held even in 2008. The ward actually got more marginal in 2013 when UKIP held Labour to a 11% majority, and they still got a credible 23% in 2017 (Labour got a majority of the vote). Interestingly, the Conservatives easily gained the town council seat in January 2020, but I suspect this was a combination of the general election landslide aftermath and the quirkiness of by-elections. Certainly, its hard to reconcile the Conservatives being well ahead in a ward like this when they ‘only’ won Blyth Valley constituency by 2% (which was basically what they won the constituency by in the 2017 local elections where Labour easily won this ward). Therefore, expect a Labour hold but the Conservatives could get a substantial swing their way.


    Suggests the North East is pretty much as is from GE 2019, or thereabouts, which makes sense.

    The ward is pronounced Coopen. The Tories have eaten the UKIP vote whole.
    A handful of wards in Blyth now vulnerable to similar results.
    Not much of a Kipper presence elsewhere in Northumberland last time.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    Chameleon said:

    https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1390433701754966023

    Talks of increase turnout in Scotland, good for the Nats I think.

    Fwiw my partner officiated at Hyndland polling station which is Glasgow Kelvin. They reckoned over 70% of the roll voted which would be massive if it were extrapolated nationally.
    I've seen tweets saying the increased turnout is good for SLab, SCon and SNP, so..
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    Jonathan said:

    Tory = UKIP

    Yes, it's not a surprise that former UKIP voters will vote for this government. What is a surprise, or at least mildly disappointing, is that mainstream Tories who agreed with Cameron's characterisation of UKIP are willing to find reasons to be taken along for the ride - but that is partly down to FPTP, of course.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    sarissa said:

    kle4 said:

    @BritainElects

    ICYMI: our final Scottish parliament forecast - as polls close:

    SNP: 62 MSPs (-1)
    CON: 27 (-4)
    LAB: 24 (-)
    GRN: 11 (+5)
    LDEM: 5 (-)

    Chgs. w/ 2016
    65 seats needed for a majority

    Best that could be hoped for I suppose. I'd take it.
    The Scottish Parliament vote for another referendum comes about five minutes after that result. That's when the fun and games really gets started, of course. What happens when Johnson tells them, ever so politely, to fuck off?

    One thing's certain: this won't be resolved through the courts. The constitution is a reserved competence. The courts can't force the House of Commons to vote to grant a Section 30 order because the Scottish Parliament wants one, any more than they could force it to vote to abolish the monarchy or declare war on Botswana because that's what MSPs wanted.

    If Scotland's independence movement can't persuade the UK Parliament to change tack then they have only two options: to put up with it and wait for a more conciliatory Parliament to be elected, or attempt a revolution.
    In the absence of any Alba MSPs, any referendum bill will be postponed until

    a) Recovery from the pandemic is fairly evident;

    b) A Citizens’ Assembly has deliberated and reported on the future direction/ societal aims and ambitions of an independent Scotland and a successor to the ‘Scotland’s Future’ white paper is drawn up to reflect this (from the SNP manifesto).
    Why wasn't (B) done already prior to the election?

    A bit like space launches, the reality is that electorally there's a very narrow window where its possible to have a referendum. Leave it too long and its getting too close to the General Election to be viable. After the General Election, its then too close to the next Holyrood election to be viable too.

    Stall too long and its not not possible. 2022 to first half of 2023 is the only realistic window of opportunity - after that the next window of opportunity is about 2027 or 2028.
    How many months were there between the 2014 Independence referendum and the 2015 GE?
    That was cutting it as fine as was viable, plus it was at a time of the Fixed Term Parliament Act which won't exist by the time we reach 2023. Even if you expand it to autumn 2023, that doesn't extend the window of opportunity very far.

    Past autumn 2023 politics will be too dominated by the 2024 General (if we haven't had a 2023 one), after that it will be the 2025 Holyrood Election coming up and the window has been missed to have a referendum.
    Holyrood elections are on a five-year schedule now - so 2026 for the next Holyrood election. Easy enough to have a referendum between GE and Holyrood election given the Brexit referendum itself came in between two GEs one the year before and one after.
    Are Holyrood Elections technically on a five year schedule now?

    I thought they were still supposedly on a four-year schedule, but kept getting extended by a year so as not to clash with the next scheduled General (remembering that in 2016 the next scheduled General was 2020).

    Since the next scheduled General is now 2024, there can't be a clash with 2025. So it should remain 2025 and not be extended to 2026 now.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    edited May 2021

    Jonathan said:

    Tory = UKIP

    Yes, it's not a surprise that former UKIP voters will vote for this government. What is a surprise, or at least mildly disappointing, is that mainstream Tories who agreed with Cameron's characterisation of UKIP are willing to find reasons to be taken along for the ride - but that is partly down to FPTP, of course.
    Remember "mainstream Tories" didn't really exist in places like Blyth
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,232
    Andy_JS said:

    Australia's international borders may not fully reopen until the middle or second half of 2022, trade minister says - Reuters

    How much of their economy is based on tourism?
    A lot. Also they have a massive education/foreign student sector, which will be decimated by this
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,227

    Chameleon said:

    https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1390433701754966023

    Talks of increase turnout in Scotland, good for the Nats I think.

    Fwiw my partner officiated at Hyndland polling station which is Glasgow Kelvin. They reckoned over 70% of the roll voted which would be massive if it were extrapolated nationally.
    I've seen tweets saying the increased turnout is good for SLab, SCon and SNP, so..
    That's a leafier, more middle class area? If so, then likely a bit above overall turnout?
  • I think it is slowly dawning on voters that Materialism is a mistake.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    rcs1000 said:

    Australia's international borders may not fully reopen until the middle or second half of 2022, trade minister says - Reuters

    I suspect lots of places won't fully open until they're 80+% vaccinated.

    And places like Australia, New Zealand, etc., are also (and even before the EU's meddling) back of the vaccine purchasing queue.
    Why is this? NZ has hardly vaccinated anyone, still, even now, I noticed this week. Why not? Have they dithered endlessly or fussed over the price? It seems they are storing up trouble as they can’t keep their borders closed forever.
    They didn't feel the need to aggressively purchase vaccines, because their economies weren't locked down.

    That said, I know Moderna is going to be selling 3-400 million doses of their vaccine on the open market in the second half of this year, so I'd guess rich countries like Aus/NZ might move quickly to purchase them.

    In which case, you could see Aus open up sooner.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    Chameleon said:

    https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1390433701754966023

    Talks of increase turnout in Scotland, good for the Nats I think.

    Fwiw my partner officiated at Hyndland polling station which is Glasgow Kelvin. They reckoned over 70% of the roll voted which would be massive if it were extrapolated nationally.
    I've seen tweets saying the increased turnout is good for SLab, SCon and SNP, so..
    Often seems that an increased turnout favours nobody - it's just a sign that the election is more important for everyone, and both sides attract more voters.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited May 2021

    rcs1000 said:

    Australia's international borders may not fully reopen until the middle or second half of 2022, trade minister says - Reuters

    I suspect lots of places won't fully open until they're 80+% vaccinated.

    And places like Australia, New Zealand, etc., are also (and even before the EU's meddling) back of the vaccine purchasing queue.
    Why is this? NZ has hardly vaccinated anyone, still, even now, I noticed this week. Why not? Have they dithered endlessly or fussed over the price? It seems they are storing up trouble as they can’t keep their borders closed forever.
    Yes, slow to buy. I think they had ordered a 100k doses reasonably early, which they received and deployed to front line staff at places like airports, but that is really their lot for another 6 months.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489

    rcs1000 said:

    Australia's international borders may not fully reopen until the middle or second half of 2022, trade minister says - Reuters

    I suspect lots of places won't fully open until they're 80+% vaccinated.

    And places like Australia, New Zealand, etc., are also (and even before the EU's meddling) back of the vaccine purchasing queue.
    Why is this? NZ has hardly vaccinated anyone, still, even now, I noticed this week. Why not? Have they dithered endlessly or fussed over the price? It seems they are storing up trouble as they can’t keep their borders closed forever.
    One thing NZ are doing is using the limited supply they do have to vaccinate those people who might bring the virus in the NZ, by Brother In Law who is a pilot for AIR NZ have had his as has his family.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279

    Well we've had the first Blyth seat and it was a Lab hold!
    Lab hold, 17% swing to the Tories.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Australia's international borders may not fully reopen until the middle or second half of 2022, trade minister says - Reuters

    I suspect lots of places won't fully open until they're 80+% vaccinated.

    And places like Australia, New Zealand, etc., are also (and even before the EU's meddling) back of the vaccine purchasing queue.
    Why is this? NZ has hardly vaccinated anyone, still, even now, I noticed this week. Why not? Have they dithered endlessly or fussed over the price? It seems they are storing up trouble as they can’t keep their borders closed forever.
    They didn't feel the need to aggressively purchase vaccines, because their economies weren't locked down.

    That said, I know Moderna is going to be selling 3-400 million doses of their vaccine on the open market in the second half of this year, so I'd guess rich countries like Aus/NZ might move quickly to purchase them.

    In which case, you could see Aus open up sooner.
    I hope all those extra nodes on the SkyNet doesn't overload it, as I am now hooked into it....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Australia's international borders may not fully reopen until the middle or second half of 2022, trade minister says - Reuters

    How much of their economy is based on tourism?
    A lot. Also they have a massive education/foreign student sector, which will be decimated by this
    Actually tourism has gone down quite considerably in recent decades as a percentage of Aussie GDP.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    edited May 2021
    Sky News correspondent: optimistic to expect the result in the next few hours.

    Could be as late as 7am.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,227
    dixiedean said:

    From the vote-2012 forums and the wonderful Jamie, this is his summary and prediction for Cowpen, which is pretty bang-on.

    Cowpen
    The ward covers northern Blyth. This is another solidly working class ward and includes the Bates coal mine which closed a relatively late 1986. This has long been a safe Labour ward and they easily held even in 2008. The ward actually got more marginal in 2013 when UKIP held Labour to a 11% majority, and they still got a credible 23% in 2017 (Labour got a majority of the vote). Interestingly, the Conservatives easily gained the town council seat in January 2020, but I suspect this was a combination of the general election landslide aftermath and the quirkiness of by-elections. Certainly, its hard to reconcile the Conservatives being well ahead in a ward like this when they ‘only’ won Blyth Valley constituency by 2% (which was basically what they won the constituency by in the 2017 local elections where Labour easily won this ward). Therefore, expect a Labour hold but the Conservatives could get a substantial swing their way.


    Suggests the North East is pretty much as is from GE 2019, or thereabouts, which makes sense.

    The ward is pronounced Coopen. The Tories have eaten the UKIP vote whole.
    Reckon that Cowpen was named because it was location where cattle (perhaps lifted from north of the border) were penned up?

    Battle of Cowpens (1781) in South Carolina was NOT a good day for the Brits.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    Tory = UKIP

    Yes, it's not a surprise that former UKIP voters will vote for this government. What is a surprise, or at least mildly disappointing, is that mainstream Tories who agreed with Cameron's characterisation of UKIP are willing to find reasons to be taken along for the ride - but that is partly down to FPTP, of course.
    I do wonder if in their quieter, reflective moments whether Tories are truly happy that their grand old party has become so close to an organisation they recently despised.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    Sky person saying that people on the counting floor in Hartlepool are saYing that Labour are getting slaughtered.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    "Jill is going to walk it" - Sky quoting Tory sources, Tories not really going for expectations management right now.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Australia's international borders may not fully reopen until the middle or second half of 2022, trade minister says - Reuters

    I suspect lots of places won't fully open until they're 80+% vaccinated.

    And places like Australia, New Zealand, etc., are also (and even before the EU's meddling) back of the vaccine purchasing queue.
    Why is this? NZ has hardly vaccinated anyone, still, even now, I noticed this week. Why not? Have they dithered endlessly or fussed over the price? It seems they are storing up trouble as they can’t keep their borders closed forever.
    They didn't feel the need to aggressively purchase vaccines, because their economies weren't locked down.

    That said, I know Moderna is going to be selling 3-400 million doses of their vaccine on the open market in the second half of this year, so I'd guess rich countries like Aus/NZ might move quickly to purchase them.

    In which case, you could see Aus open up sooner.
    I hope all those extra nodes on the SkyNet doesn't overload it, as I am now hooked into it....
    Us Moderna victims recipients need to stick together. We're so much better than those Pfizer losers.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    sarissa said:

    kle4 said:

    @BritainElects

    ICYMI: our final Scottish parliament forecast - as polls close:

    SNP: 62 MSPs (-1)
    CON: 27 (-4)
    LAB: 24 (-)
    GRN: 11 (+5)
    LDEM: 5 (-)

    Chgs. w/ 2016
    65 seats needed for a majority

    Best that could be hoped for I suppose. I'd take it.
    The Scottish Parliament vote for another referendum comes about five minutes after that result. That's when the fun and games really gets started, of course. What happens when Johnson tells them, ever so politely, to fuck off?

    One thing's certain: this won't be resolved through the courts. The constitution is a reserved competence. The courts can't force the House of Commons to vote to grant a Section 30 order because the Scottish Parliament wants one, any more than they could force it to vote to abolish the monarchy or declare war on Botswana because that's what MSPs wanted.

    If Scotland's independence movement can't persuade the UK Parliament to change tack then they have only two options: to put up with it and wait for a more conciliatory Parliament to be elected, or attempt a revolution.
    In the absence of any Alba MSPs, any referendum bill will be postponed until

    a) Recovery from the pandemic is fairly evident;

    b) A Citizens’ Assembly has deliberated and reported on the future direction/ societal aims and ambitions of an independent Scotland and a successor to the ‘Scotland’s Future’ white paper is drawn up to reflect this (from the SNP manifesto).
    Why wasn't (B) done already prior to the election?

    A bit like space launches, the reality is that electorally there's a very narrow window where its possible to have a referendum. Leave it too long and its getting too close to the General Election to be viable. After the General Election, its then too close to the next Holyrood election to be viable too.

    Stall too long and its not not possible. 2022 to first half of 2023 is the only realistic window of opportunity - after that the next window of opportunity is about 2027 or 2028.
    How many months were there between the 2014 Independence referendum and the 2015 GE?
    That was cutting it as fine as was viable, plus it was at a time of the Fixed Term Parliament Act which won't exist by the time we reach 2023. Even if you expand it to autumn 2023, that doesn't extend the window of opportunity very far.

    Past autumn 2023 politics will be too dominated by the 2024 General (if we haven't had a 2023 one), after that it will be the 2025 Holyrood Election coming up and the window has been missed to have a referendum.
    Holyrood elections are on a five-year schedule now - so 2026 for the next Holyrood election. Easy enough to have a referendum between GE and Holyrood election given the Brexit referendum itself came in between two GEs one the year before and one after.
    Are Holyrood Elections technically on a five year schedule now?

    I thought they were still supposedly on a four-year schedule, but kept getting extended by a year so as not to clash with the next scheduled General (remembering that in 2016 the next scheduled General was 2020).

    Since the next scheduled General is now 2024, there can't be a clash with 2025. So it should remain 2025 and not be extended to 2026 now.
    Yes. At first they simply deferred the election, but they later passed another act which changed the four-year terms to five.

    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/asp/2020/12/section/1/enacted
  • noisywinternoisywinter Posts: 249
    Chameleon said:

    Sky person saying that people on the counting floor in Hartlepool are saYing that Labour are getting slaughtered.

    I lol'd

    Arf
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,232

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Australia's international borders may not fully reopen until the middle or second half of 2022, trade minister says - Reuters

    How much of their economy is based on tourism?
    A lot. Also they have a massive education/foreign student sector, which will be decimated by this
    Actually tourism has gone down quite considerably in recent decades as a percentage of Aussie GDP.
    You're right, my bad, in 2019 it was 3.1% of Aussie GDP, which I find surprisingly low (I'd have had it 5-7%)

    Education is 2%

    So they might be fine with a long global quarantine
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    First result.

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390438316990943233

    Cowpen (Northumberland) council result:

    Lab: 47.0% (-6.7)
    Con: 44.7% (+27.3)
    Ind: 8.3% (+8.3)

    No UKIP (-23.4) as prev.

    Lab HOLD
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662

    dixiedean said:

    From the vote-2012 forums and the wonderful Jamie, this is his summary and prediction for Cowpen, which is pretty bang-on.

    Cowpen
    The ward covers northern Blyth. This is another solidly working class ward and includes the Bates coal mine which closed a relatively late 1986. This has long been a safe Labour ward and they easily held even in 2008. The ward actually got more marginal in 2013 when UKIP held Labour to a 11% majority, and they still got a credible 23% in 2017 (Labour got a majority of the vote). Interestingly, the Conservatives easily gained the town council seat in January 2020, but I suspect this was a combination of the general election landslide aftermath and the quirkiness of by-elections. Certainly, its hard to reconcile the Conservatives being well ahead in a ward like this when they ‘only’ won Blyth Valley constituency by 2% (which was basically what they won the constituency by in the 2017 local elections where Labour easily won this ward). Therefore, expect a Labour hold but the Conservatives could get a substantial swing their way.


    Suggests the North East is pretty much as is from GE 2019, or thereabouts, which makes sense.

    The ward is pronounced Coopen. The Tories have eaten the UKIP vote whole.
    Reckon that Cowpen was named because it was location where cattle (perhaps lifted from north of the border) were penned up?

    Battle of Cowpens (1781) in South Carolina was NOT a good day for the Brits.
    Have they got herd immunity yet?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Lib Dems gain Hendon from Labour on Sunderland Council
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited May 2021

    sarissa said:

    kle4 said:

    @BritainElects

    ICYMI: our final Scottish parliament forecast - as polls close:

    SNP: 62 MSPs (-1)
    CON: 27 (-4)
    LAB: 24 (-)
    GRN: 11 (+5)
    LDEM: 5 (-)

    Chgs. w/ 2016
    65 seats needed for a majority

    Best that could be hoped for I suppose. I'd take it.
    The Scottish Parliament vote for another referendum comes about five minutes after that result. That's when the fun and games really gets started, of course. What happens when Johnson tells them, ever so politely, to fuck off?

    One thing's certain: this won't be resolved through the courts. The constitution is a reserved competence. The courts can't force the House of Commons to vote to grant a Section 30 order because the Scottish Parliament wants one, any more than they could force it to vote to abolish the monarchy or declare war on Botswana because that's what MSPs wanted.

    If Scotland's independence movement can't persuade the UK Parliament to change tack then they have only two options: to put up with it and wait for a more conciliatory Parliament to be elected, or attempt a revolution.
    In the absence of any Alba MSPs, any referendum bill will be postponed until

    a) Recovery from the pandemic is fairly evident;

    b) A Citizens’ Assembly has deliberated and reported on the future direction/ societal aims and ambitions of an independent Scotland and a successor to the ‘Scotland’s Future’ white paper is drawn up to reflect this (from the SNP manifesto).
    Why wasn't (B) done already prior to the election?

    A bit like space launches, the reality is that electorally there's a very narrow window where its possible to have a referendum. Leave it too long and its getting too close to the General Election to be viable. After the General Election, its then too close to the next Holyrood election to be viable too.

    Stall too long and its not not possible. 2022 to first half of 2023 is the only realistic window of opportunity - after that the next window of opportunity is about 2027 or 2028.
    How many months were there between the 2014 Independence referendum and the 2015 GE?
    That was cutting it as fine as was viable, plus it was at a time of the Fixed Term Parliament Act which won't exist by the time we reach 2023. Even if you expand it to autumn 2023, that doesn't extend the window of opportunity very far.

    Past autumn 2023 politics will be too dominated by the 2024 General (if we haven't had a 2023 one), after that it will be the 2025 Holyrood Election coming up and the window has been missed to have a referendum.
    Holyrood elections are on a five-year schedule now - so 2026 for the next Holyrood election. Easy enough to have a referendum between GE and Holyrood election given the Brexit referendum itself came in between two GEs one the year before and one after.
    Are Holyrood Elections technically on a five year schedule now?

    I thought they were still supposedly on a four-year schedule, but kept getting extended by a year so as not to clash with the next scheduled General (remembering that in 2016 the next scheduled General was 2020).

    Since the next scheduled General is now 2024, there can't be a clash with 2025. So it should remain 2025 and not be extended to 2026 now.
    Yes. At first they simply deferred the election, but they later passed another act which changed the four-year terms to five.

    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/asp/2020/12/section/1/enacted
    Later? Unless I'm misreading that, it was only passed in 2020 . . . so after the 2019 General Election and they've done that knowing full well the election should have been 2025 otherwise!

    A great philosopher once wrote
    Naughty, naughty, very naughty
    Ha ha ha ha ha
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    ""NewcastleCityCouncil
    @NewcastleCC
    Replying to
    @elizabeth_tyghe

    Hi. Counting has been delayed due to a large number of postal votes being handed into polling stations late in the day. Do bear with us - Our counters are working hard and we'll announce the first results just as soon as we are able. Thanks.""

    https://twitter.com/NewcastleCC/status/1390441187077672961
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,227
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Australia's international borders may not fully reopen until the middle or second half of 2022, trade minister says - Reuters

    I suspect lots of places won't fully open until they're 80+% vaccinated.

    And places like Australia, New Zealand, etc., are also (and even before the EU's meddling) back of the vaccine purchasing queue.
    Why is this? NZ has hardly vaccinated anyone, still, even now, I noticed this week. Why not? Have they dithered endlessly or fussed over the price? It seems they are storing up trouble as they can’t keep their borders closed forever.
    They didn't feel the need to aggressively purchase vaccines, because their economies weren't locked down.

    That said, I know Moderna is going to be selling 3-400 million doses of their vaccine on the open market in the second half of this year, so I'd guess rich countries like Aus/NZ might move quickly to purchase them.

    In which case, you could see Aus open up sooner.
    I hope all those extra nodes on the SkyNet doesn't overload it, as I am now hooked into it....
    Us Moderna victims recipients need to stick together. We're so much better than those Pfizer losers.
    Have you been to Dodger Stadium yet? Friend of mine & his wife attended Mariners game in Seattle yesterday, sat in the section reserved for the Jabbed.

    Was an historic no-hitter . . . for the Baltimore Orioles.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,569

    dixiedean said:

    From the vote-2012 forums and the wonderful Jamie, this is his summary and prediction for Cowpen, which is pretty bang-on.

    Cowpen
    The ward covers northern Blyth. This is another solidly working class ward and includes the Bates coal mine which closed a relatively late 1986. This has long been a safe Labour ward and they easily held even in 2008. The ward actually got more marginal in 2013 when UKIP held Labour to a 11% majority, and they still got a credible 23% in 2017 (Labour got a majority of the vote). Interestingly, the Conservatives easily gained the town council seat in January 2020, but I suspect this was a combination of the general election landslide aftermath and the quirkiness of by-elections. Certainly, its hard to reconcile the Conservatives being well ahead in a ward like this when they ‘only’ won Blyth Valley constituency by 2% (which was basically what they won the constituency by in the 2017 local elections where Labour easily won this ward). Therefore, expect a Labour hold but the Conservatives could get a substantial swing their way.


    Suggests the North East is pretty much as is from GE 2019, or thereabouts, which makes sense.

    The ward is pronounced Coopen. The Tories have eaten the UKIP vote whole.
    Reckon that Cowpen was named because it was location where cattle (perhaps lifted from north of the border) were penned up?

    Battle of Cowpens (1781) in South Carolina was NOT a good day for the Brits.
    The Battles of Bull Run weren’t great for the Union.
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 178

    Lib Dems gain Hendon from Labour on Sunderland Council

    Where are you getting these results from, please?
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662

    "Jill is going to walk it" - Sky quoting Tory sources, Tories not really going for expectations management right now.

    What's the point of managing expectations after people have voted?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    edited May 2021

    Chameleon said:

    https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1390433701754966023

    Talks of increase turnout in Scotland, good for the Nats I think.

    Fwiw my partner officiated at Hyndland polling station which is Glasgow Kelvin. They reckoned over 70% of the roll voted which would be massive if it were extrapolated nationally.
    I've seen tweets saying the increased turnout is good for SLab, SCon and SNP, so..
    That's a leafier, more middle class area? If so, then likely a bit above overall turnout?
    Yep, University area also. A scene of George Galloway triumphs a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away..
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,227
    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    From the vote-2012 forums and the wonderful Jamie, this is his summary and prediction for Cowpen, which is pretty bang-on.

    Cowpen
    The ward covers northern Blyth. This is another solidly working class ward and includes the Bates coal mine which closed a relatively late 1986. This has long been a safe Labour ward and they easily held even in 2008. The ward actually got more marginal in 2013 when UKIP held Labour to a 11% majority, and they still got a credible 23% in 2017 (Labour got a majority of the vote). Interestingly, the Conservatives easily gained the town council seat in January 2020, but I suspect this was a combination of the general election landslide aftermath and the quirkiness of by-elections. Certainly, its hard to reconcile the Conservatives being well ahead in a ward like this when they ‘only’ won Blyth Valley constituency by 2% (which was basically what they won the constituency by in the 2017 local elections where Labour easily won this ward). Therefore, expect a Labour hold but the Conservatives could get a substantial swing their way.


    Suggests the North East is pretty much as is from GE 2019, or thereabouts, which makes sense.

    The ward is pronounced Coopen. The Tories have eaten the UKIP vote whole.
    Reckon that Cowpen was named because it was location where cattle (perhaps lifted from north of the border) were penned up?

    Battle of Cowpens (1781) in South Carolina was NOT a good day for the Brits.
    The Battles of Bull Run weren’t great for the Union.
    What you might call a wake-up call!
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    Told by Lab source people on ground in Sunderland say it's looking "very bad". Labour 13 seat majority. Third of seats being re-elected & Lab defending 24 of 28 of those seats. My source says its hard to tell but their "guess" is "some kind of Tory/UKIP coalition in Sunderland"

    Jeez.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    Nunu3 said:

    Lib Dems gain Hendon from Labour on Sunderland Council

    Where are you getting these results from, please?

    Britain elects twiter
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Nunu3 said:

    Lib Dems gain Hendon from Labour on Sunderland Council

    Where are you getting these results from, please?
    https://twitter.com/TyneWearElects/status/1390442762860994572
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Australia's international borders may not fully reopen until the middle or second half of 2022, trade minister says - Reuters

    How much of their economy is based on tourism?
    A lot. Also they have a massive education/foreign student sector, which will be decimated by this
    Actually tourism has gone down quite considerably in recent decades as a percentage of Aussie GDP.
    You're right, my bad, in 2019 it was 3.1% of Aussie GDP, which I find surprisingly low (I'd have had it 5-7%)

    Education is 2%

    So they might be fine with a long global quarantine
    Almost a quarter of Australian GDP is Gross Capital Formation, which is about 50% more than us.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TudorRose said:

    "Jill is going to walk it" - Sky quoting Tory sources, Tories not really going for expectations management right now.

    What's the point of managing expectations after people have voted?
    If it goes the wrong way then you can say "we never expected to win, this isn't a big deal" if you've done your expectations management right. If you get it wrong, then you can be humiliated.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,227

    Chameleon said:

    https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1390433701754966023

    Talks of increase turnout in Scotland, good for the Nats I think.

    Fwiw my partner officiated at Hyndland polling station which is Glasgow Kelvin. They reckoned over 70% of the roll voted which would be massive if it were extrapolated nationally.
    I've seen tweets saying the increased turnout is good for SLab, SCon and SNP, so..
    That's a leafier, more middle class area? If so, then likely a bit above overall turnout?
    Yep, University area also. A scene of George Galloway triumphs a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away..
    So maybe rather average turnout wise? Middle class up, but students down.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    "@e_casalicchio

    Lab sources on the ground here in Hartlepool also reckon the Tories have "well over" 50% of the vote share."

    https://twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1390442085799575554
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,702

    Lib Dems gain Hendon from Labour on Sunderland Council

    That can’t be a surprise given the new statesman article earlier in the week which discussed Lib Dem making gains in Sunderland prior to this.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957

    NEW THREAD

  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390444498040274944

    Kitty Brewster (Northumberland) council result:

    Con: 51.1% (+21.2)
    Lab: 43.3% (-1.8)
    LDem: 5.6% (-1.7)

    No UKIP (-17.7) as prev.

    Con GAIN from Lab

    Con eating the UKIP vote whole and then some.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    sarissa said:

    kle4 said:

    @BritainElects

    ICYMI: our final Scottish parliament forecast - as polls close:

    SNP: 62 MSPs (-1)
    CON: 27 (-4)
    LAB: 24 (-)
    GRN: 11 (+5)
    LDEM: 5 (-)

    Chgs. w/ 2016
    65 seats needed for a majority

    Best that could be hoped for I suppose. I'd take it.
    The Scottish Parliament vote for another referendum comes about five minutes after that result. That's when the fun and games really gets started, of course. What happens when Johnson tells them, ever so politely, to fuck off?

    One thing's certain: this won't be resolved through the courts. The constitution is a reserved competence. The courts can't force the House of Commons to vote to grant a Section 30 order because the Scottish Parliament wants one, any more than they could force it to vote to abolish the monarchy or declare war on Botswana because that's what MSPs wanted.

    If Scotland's independence movement can't persuade the UK Parliament to change tack then they have only two options: to put up with it and wait for a more conciliatory Parliament to be elected, or attempt a revolution.
    In the absence of any Alba MSPs, any referendum bill will be postponed until

    a) Recovery from the pandemic is fairly evident;

    b) A Citizens’ Assembly has deliberated and reported on the future direction/ societal aims and ambitions of an independent Scotland and a successor to the ‘Scotland’s Future’ white paper is drawn up to reflect this (from the SNP manifesto).
    Why wasn't (B) done already prior to the election?

    A bit like space launches, the reality is that electorally there's a very narrow window where its possible to have a referendum. Leave it too long and its getting too close to the General Election to be viable. After the General Election, its then too close to the next Holyrood election to be viable too.

    Stall too long and its not not possible. 2022 to first half of 2023 is the only realistic window of opportunity - after that the next window of opportunity is about 2027 or 2028.
    How many months were there between the 2014 Independence referendum and the 2015 GE?
    That was cutting it as fine as was viable, plus it was at a time of the Fixed Term Parliament Act which won't exist by the time we reach 2023. Even if you expand it to autumn 2023, that doesn't extend the window of opportunity very far.

    Past autumn 2023 politics will be too dominated by the 2024 General (if we haven't had a 2023 one), after that it will be the 2025 Holyrood Election coming up and the window has been missed to have a referendum.
    Holyrood elections are on a five-year schedule now - so 2026 for the next Holyrood election. Easy enough to have a referendum between GE and Holyrood election given the Brexit referendum itself came in between two GEs one the year before and one after.
    Are Holyrood Elections technically on a five year schedule now?

    I thought they were still supposedly on a four-year schedule, but kept getting extended by a year so as not to clash with the next scheduled General (remembering that in 2016 the next scheduled General was 2020).

    Since the next scheduled General is now 2024, there can't be a clash with 2025. So it should remain 2025 and not be extended to 2026 now.
    Yes. At first they simply deferred the election, but they later passed another act which changed the four-year terms to five.

    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/asp/2020/12/section/1/enacted
    Later? Unless I'm misreading that, it was only passed in 2020 . . . so after the 2019 General Election and they've done that knowing full well the election should have been 2025 otherwise!

    A great philosopher once wrote
    Naughty, naughty, very naughty
    Ha ha ha ha ha
    Yes, "later", because they passed an Act in 2016 to defer the 2020 election to 2021 (after already deferring what should have been an election in 2015 to 2016), and then, later, in 2020, passed that Act to put five-year terms as a new standard.

    Fixed-Term Parliaments Act should have been for four year terms, and then there'd have been no pretext for the change in Holyrood terms.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    More from Northumberland


    ISABELLA
    Anna Watson (LAB) - 482
    Alice May Levy (CON) - 340
    LAB HOLD

    2017
    Gordon Webb Lab 515 63.9%
    John Moore UKIP 130 16.1%
    Stephen Mallam C 120 14.9%
    Sandra Stanger LD 41 5.1%

    Croft
    Kath Nisbet (LAB) - 556
    Martin Tulip (CON) - 293
    Mark Peart (REF) - 49
    Paul Edward Taylor (IND) - 28
    LAB HOLD

    2017
    Kath Nisbet Lab 514 59.6%
    Scott Lee C 164 19.0%
    Robert Erskine UKIP 122 14.1%
    Peter Stanger LD 63 7.3%

    KITTY BREWSTER
    Wojciech Franciszek Ploszaj (CON) - 698
    Warren Taylor (LAB) - 591
    Sandra Stanger (LD) - 77
    CON GAIN

    2017
    Grant Davey Lab 511 45.1%
    Ian Levy C 339 29.9%
    Peter Watson UKIP 201 17.7%
    Walter Rickerby LD 83 7.3%
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Sunderland- Hendon

    Simon John AYRE (Conservative Party) 377
    Helmut IZAKS (Green Party) 110
    Martin MOORE (UKIP) 75
    Dale Michael MORDEY (Labour and Co-operative Party) 849
    Ciaran Joseph MORRISSEY (Liberal Democrat) 1029

    LD gain.
    LD polled 6% in 2019
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080
    edited May 2021

    rcs1000 said:

    Australia's international borders may not fully reopen until the middle or second half of 2022, trade minister says - Reuters

    I suspect lots of places won't fully open until they're 80+% vaccinated.

    And places like Australia, New Zealand, etc., are also (and even before the EU's meddling) back of the vaccine purchasing queue.
    Why is this? NZ has hardly vaccinated anyone, still, even now, I noticed this week. Why not? Have they dithered endlessly or fussed over the price? It seems they are storing up trouble as they can’t keep their borders closed forever.
    Yes, slow to buy. I think they had ordered a 100k doses reasonably early, which they received and deployed to front line staff at places like airports, but that is really their lot for another 6 months.
    If they are going to let travellers from the UK, and especially the EU, in, then they will need to vaccinate PDQ.

    Otherwise they are a vulnerable population who can be infected by an undetected carrier. In the EU case levels on average are running at levels that the UK went below in mid-January (last time I checked). And the EuCo are still demanding open borders within Shengen.

    Europeans and American Indians...

    I'd say NZ won't be opening to tourism until they are all done.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    No dirt, but some comments as a Labour member.

    The Labour Party appears to be irrevocably, terminally split.
    Starmer is actually doing a good job holding things together, things are far worse than they appear.
    Keeping the lights on is taking all Starmers energy.

    I believe Starmer made a political mistake personally getting involved with the corruption story. He should have delegated the attack and risen above it. Party splits make that tricky.

    The story was toxic for Labour as it was an old fashioned Westminster centric story and the electorate are not best pleased with Westminster post Brexit. He tarnished himself.

    This one was always going to be hard due to vaccines. Starmer might have found a cause outside of Westminster, looking ahead and made it the centre. The end of furlough, NHS 1% pay rise or tax rises. Anything that came from the insights into the electorate.

    I fear Starmer may not yet be a political animal with antennae tuned to the electorate. He is set up right now as a perfect reforming Labour Home Secretary, but not yet the street fighter leader Labour needs to claw back.

    The coming storm will test him and see if he can make the leap.

    Commendably honest

    THIS is a very good analysis of Labour problems by Brexiteer Guardian Economics editor Larry Elliot


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/05/labour-remainers-brexit-uk-eu-leavers

    As he says, Labour will not prosper until they accept and embrace Brexit. This is going to be very hard for them - so many are Remoaners - but it is necessary. Like the Tories and gay marriage, like Blair and Clause 4, it is a symbolic step that needs to be taken to detoxify the brand. Once they do this - embrace Brexit - it will all become so much easier, and - I believe - many trad voters will return to them

    Is Starmer able to do this? I doubt it. He wanted a 2nd ref. But he could pave the way for a man or woman that WILL do this

    That should be the main requirement for the next leader. Explain in a way that doesn't alienate either side why we have to move on.

    It should be easy
    Structural strength of NHS vaccine rollout nothing to do with Tories, but the chaos at the outbreak of Covid was strongly contributed by underfunding our NHS
    Life chances of a generation of young people hindered by Covid? Education recovery fund for primaries for additional resource. Secondaries to support key skills in English and maths, and support for shift to Jan to Jan calendar for University tuition to enable application based on actual grades, and development of higher education skills training via online learning - i.e. how to use library, etc to assist acclimatisation for students.
    - jobs funds for new green economy
    - support for bus provision - important outside London.
    - other tangible (i.e. not woke positioning crap) policies
    All these mean that we have to accept the reality that we have left the EU and there is no clear majority to rejoin, and the time and energy needed for that is required for the priorities above.

    I'm not a member but if someone was saying the above i'd hear them out. What I don't have time for is race or gender theory. It is niche, should inform our politicians, but not be part of mainstream debate
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080

    Australia's international borders may not fully reopen until the middle or second half of 2022, trade minister says - Reuters

    Sensible.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080
    Have we had this one?

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1390461467992932353
    Another Conservative gain in Northumberland- this time in the ward of the Labour group leader on the council, by a single vote.


    Ouch.
This discussion has been closed.