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The voting ends on Super Thursday but – politicalbetting.com
The voting ends on Super Thursday but – politicalbetting.com
Keir and Present Danger.Starmer can survive losing Hartlepool, after all Corbyn, despite winning the argument, lost Bishop Auckland, Blyth Valley, Darlington, NW Durham, Redcar, Sedgefield, & Stockton South.I don't think Starmer can survive losing Hartlepool and Batley & Spen
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Edit: Phew!
Colchester
Derby
Dudley
Gateshead
Harlow
Knowsley
Newcastle
Northumberland
Nuneaton & Bedworth
Oldham
Redditch
Rochdale
Rochford
Southend
South Tyneside
Stevenage
Stockport
Sunderland
Thurrock
Doncaster Mayor
Who next for LAB leader??
Greeting, Aberjeffrey.
It's all over
Political editor @BethRigby says Conservative party sources in Westminster have been playing down their chances of winning in Hartlepool, but says Tory sources on the ground have told her that they believe the Conservatives have won the seat.
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1390414898920923139
https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/local-elections-2021-live-results-20532389
The problem with Hartlepool is that it’s as Brexity as it gets. Not that it’s not a severe blow to Labour, mind.
EDIT - top of link features pic of young woman sprinting with ballot box.
Or maybe just fast-walking?
We election geeks deserve our time!
Is it too late to retract her ennoblement?
Generally we only have exit polls on GEs.
Cray cray
I suppose that if Labour would lose Batley and Spen, they wouldn't win the West Yorkshire mayoralty either meaning that there wouldn't be a B&S by-election.
About the time Farage conceded.
So, I'll sign off for the night.
For the shitz n gigglez.
An extraordinary moment
Is that just because they have to be unBritish in everything in Scotland so won't start counting tonight?
Here comes Yvette!
https://www.hartlepoolmail.co.uk/news/people/hartlepool-by-election-live-blog-through-the-night-3227566
The Labour Party appears to be irrevocably, terminally split.
Starmer is actually doing a good job holding things together, things are far worse than they appear.
Keeping the lights on is taking all Starmers energy.
I believe Starmer made a political mistake personally getting involved with the corruption story. He should have delegated the attack and risen above it. Party splits make that tricky.
The story was toxic for Labour as it was an old fashioned Westminster centric story and the electorate are not best pleased with Westminster post Brexit. He tarnished himself.
This one was always going to be hard due to vaccines. Starmer might have found a cause outside of Westminster, looking ahead and made it the centre. The end of furlough, NHS 1% pay rise or tax rises. Anything that came from the insights into the electorate.
I fear Starmer may not yet be a political animal with antennae tuned to the electorate. He is set up right now as a perfect reforming Labour Home Secretary, but not yet the street fighter leader Labour needs to claw back.
The coming storm will test him and see if he can make the leap.
@GoodwinMJ
The last time a Conservative was elected in Hartlepool Cliff Richard was No.1 with "Living Doll", Ben-Hur was in the cinema, Winston Churchill was alive, England had not yet won a World Cup & Tony Blair was 6. Ignore the hot takes playing it down. If it happens, it's a big deal"
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1390404962665091074
Conservative staff had been encouraged to use spare time on Thursday evening to make calls for the candidate Jill Mortimer.
The source said there was a “mixed picture in elections across the country” and suggested Labour had “done really well on their expectation management”.
I'm in the same industry as Casino, and moved over from a public sector client organisation to a large corporate. I was looking forward to less of the BS. Well, turns out my new place is OBSESSED with the wokeness, and pursues it with a ruthless efficiency and that puts my old employer to shame. It's cascaded down through performance objectives, so anyone looking to progress has to stay on message.
I think some of this is cynically wanting to be seen as thought leaders, to be in a good position to pick up public sector contracts. But as activists get put in to senior roles, and the general ideology becomes endemic do wonder how things will end up.
Hopefully NOT pestering the Tory women for a wee smooch? Best to let them come to you!
ICYMI: our final Scottish parliament forecast - as polls close:
SNP: 62 MSPs (-1)
CON: 27 (-4)
LAB: 24 (-)
GRN: 11 (+5)
LDEM: 5 (-)
Chgs. w/ 2016
65 seats needed for a majority
My £30 at evens on the Tories in Hartlepool looks safe. Let's hope Binface triumphs over the minnows.
IF a few hours BEFORE polls close, then is part of GOTV = Get Out the Vote. That is, telling lazy supporters to get their fingers out and go vote! OR risk snatching defeat from the hands of victory.
A swing to Independence nonetheless.
THIS is a very good analysis of Labour problems by Brexiteer Guardian Economics editor Larry Elliot
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/05/labour-remainers-brexit-uk-eu-leavers
As he says, Labour will not prosper until they accept and embrace Brexit. This is going to be very hard for them - so many are Remoaners - but it is necessary. Like the Tories and gay marriage, like Blair and Clause 4, it is a symbolic step that needs to be taken to detoxify the brand. Once they do this - embrace Brexit - it will all become so much easier, and - I believe - many trad voters will return to them
Is Starmer able to do this? I doubt it. He wanted a 2nd ref. But he could pave the way for a man or woman that WILL do this
I am going to drink myself into a stupor on Sunday if the reign of the fantastically inept Oxfordshire Conservatives is finally halted.
The Conservatives are not in any danger of losing Worcestershire. Which is a shame, because everything I know about them suggests that the Worcestershire party is beyond inept, verging on actively malicious. A bunch of 70-something Thatcherite holdouts of the sort that even Oxfordshire got rid of 20 years ago - if any of you remember the revolting Keith Mitchell, former council leader of Oxfordshire, then Worcestershire is a council full of them.
Anyway I’m sure a coach load of the Owen Jones types running around Hartlepool Telling people to get out and vote labour is going to work.
Special occasion? Or normal routine?
On Election night 2001, fell asleep in my (grossly overpriced) Windsor B&B, mid broadcast. Not from drunkeness, but from tiredness. AND extreme boredom.
In the CC elections my choice was:
A Labour bod who would have difficulty sitting the right way on a toilet (that is a reflection of him personally rather than the party he was poorly representing)
A Green bod who thinks we should ban hydrocarbon based products AND animal derived products - so feck knows what he thinks we should be wearing.
A Tory mouthpiece who likes to vote for stuff and then blame others for making him do it. If you are in favour of large scale housebuilding then have the courage of your convictions to admit it rather than saying it was all the fault of some big boys who ran away.
So I spoiled my paper. Politely though. It is not the fault of the person counting that the choices are so poor so I don't see the need to be offensive.
On the PCC I voted for the Reform Party first choice and the Lincolnshire Independents second. They won't win but even if they did they couldn't do a worse job than the rest of them and it keeps it fun.
I have said it so many times before on here but we really are poorly served by our politicians at almost every level of politics.
Sunderland returning officer Pat Melia has just promised to send home anyone who isn't following social distancing rules tonight. "We've done this for a year - please do it properly tonight"
Plus - First results from Blyth could be soon
Starmer is suffering because his volte-face looks easy and glib. He segues from a 2nd refrendum to shagging the Brexit flag? - and we are all meant to believe him. We don't.
Labour need a leader who REALLY believes that Brexit can be an opportunity. Probably one that voted for it. Certainly not a leader that campaigned to cancel and ignore the Leave vote via a 2nd vote
Does Labour want to fight to retain its constitutional role as one of two parties capable of forming a government under FPTP and accept the need to be a broad representative church? Or does it want to prioritise ideological purity and become a left wing minor party / pressure group.
Once it has figured that out it can deal with Brexit.
I miss massively boring elections
@danhollandnews
Talk is that it will be a nervous night [in Newcastle] for Labour (as it will elsewhere in the region!)
Seats in the outer west will be worth keeping an eye on - Labour only won Lemington and Denton+Westerhope by around 100 votes last time out.
https://twitter.com/danhollandnews/status/1390424378882527235
One thing's certain: this won't be resolved through the courts. The constitution is a reserved competence. The courts can't force the House of Commons to vote to grant a Section 30 order because the Scottish Parliament wants one, any more than they could force it to vote to abolish the monarchy or declare war on Botswana because that's what MSPs wanted.
If Scotland's independence movement can't persuade the UK Parliament to change tack then they have only two options: to put up with it and wait for a more conciliatory Parliament to be elected, or attempt a revolution.
It's just good value.
If you don't like it, leave. Same rule for all.
https://twitter.com/David_Jamieson7/status/1390418790899462149?s=20
https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/local-elections-2021-live-results-20532389
There's also this one
https://www.hartlepoolmail.co.uk/news/people/hartlepool-by-election-live-blog-through-the-night-3227566
My tally was that Leave had won 54/46 in Luton, suggesting we would just fall short nationally, when the actual result was 57/43. It was only when I switched my car radio on that I discovered we had won.