Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

The voting ends on Super Thursday but – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 6 in General
The voting ends on Super Thursday but – politicalbetting.com

Keir and Present Danger.Starmer can survive losing Hartlepool, after all Corbyn, despite winning the argument, lost Bishop Auckland, Blyth Valley, Darlington, NW Durham, Redcar, Sedgefield, & Stockton South.I don't think Starmer can survive losing Hartlepool and Batley & Spen

Read the full story here

«13

Comments

  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,119
    First like LAB in Hartlepool? :lol:
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 16,964
    edited May 6
    I really don't want to be first again!

    Edit: Phew!
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,630
    Counting tonight

    Colchester
    Derby
    Dudley
    Gateshead
    Harlow
    Knowsley
    Newcastle
    Northumberland
    Nuneaton & Bedworth
    Oldham
    Redditch
    Rochdale
    Rochford
    Southend
    South Tyneside
    Stevenage
    Stockport
    Sunderland
    Thurrock

    Doncaster Mayor
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,214
    First results from Newcastle around 23:30
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,119
    Agreed if LAB subsequently lose Batley & Spen then Starmer is up the road.

    Who next for LAB leader??
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,214
    Oh and sprinting with ballot boxes has been banned due to covid. FFS.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,201
    Do I stay up on a 2% chance that the Tories haven't won Hartlepool?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219
    FPT - Aberjeffrey said: "I’ve been reading this site from afar for years, but this is my first post. Hello all! I’ll try to remain courteous"

    Greeting, Aberjeffrey.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219

    I really don't want to be first again!

    Edit: Phew!

    And you got your wish!
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 14,755
    I'm currently enjoying another beer :)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,147
    @SkyNews
    Political editor @BethRigby says Conservative party sources in Westminster have been playing down their chances of winning in Hartlepool, but says Tory sources on the ground have told her that they believe the Conservatives have won the seat.


    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1390414898920923139
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219
    Perhaps I missed it, but any exit polling released from anywhere?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    Sky News incredibly sympathetic to the French fishermen cause.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 8,380

    Agreed if LAB subsequently lose Batley & Spen then Starmer is up the road.

    Who next for LAB leader??

    They won’t lose Batley & Spen.

    The problem with Hartlepool is that it’s as Brexity as it gets. Not that it’s not a severe blow to Labour, mind.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219
    edited May 6
    Andrea! Good to see you here, a true PB legend!

    EDIT - top of link features pic of young woman sprinting with ballot box.

    Or maybe just fast-walking?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,167
    What do we want? Results. When do we want them? Now.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 4,440
    edited May 6

    Perhaps I missed it, but any exit polling released from anywhere?

    Not that I've seen. The nation is in suspense ; people are anxious and angry at the delay.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 12,486
    So Baroness Chapman insists her boss imposes Dr Paul on Pools.

    Is it too late to retract her ennoblement?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,119

    Perhaps I missed it, but any exit polling released from anywhere?

    I don't think there are any exit polls on any of this. Not even on Welsh and Scottish assemblies.

    Generally we only have exit polls on GEs.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,353
    DavidL said:

    What do we want? Results. When do we want them? Now.

    Is it true we will have to wait til SUNDAY for the Scottish results? Why??

    Cray cray
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,630
    edited May 6

    Agreed if LAB subsequently lose Batley & Spen then Starmer is up the road.

    Who next for LAB leader??

    They won’t lose Batley & Spen.

    I suppose that if Labour would lose Batley and Spen, they wouldn't win the West Yorkshire mayoralty either meaning that there wouldn't be a B&S by-election.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 95,999
    edited May 6
    Same price as Leave at 22.30 on the 23rd of June 2016.

    About the time Farage conceded.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 14,755

    Same price as Leave at 22.30 on the 23rd of June 2016.

    About the time Farage conceded.
    I'm not betting but fairly sure Labour was 10 to 1 to win Peterborough even around 1AM
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,398
    Well, I'm not staying up. I know we've been starved of elections for nearly 18 months but there's not that much coming in until 4-5am and I have work tomorrow. By far the most important elections for the UK are in Scotland and we won't know about those until well into Friday.

    So, I'll sign off for the night.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547

    Same price as Leave at 22.30 on the 23rd of June 2016.

    About the time Farage conceded.
    Happy memories. I don’t mean the result - I mean that amazing spreadsheet on here that made us all a killing.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 60,265
    When do we get the Scottish results? Is it tomorrow or later?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 16,895

    Perhaps I missed it, but any exit polling released from anywhere?

    Nope. And not many results till the early hours - but should be just early evening where you are!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 95,999

    When do we get the Scottish results? Is it tomorrow or later?

    Final results Saturday.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,201

    Oh and sprinting with ballot boxes has been banned due to covid. FFS.

    I'd have hired Usain Bolt in a hazmat suit.

    For the shitz n gigglez.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,353

    Same price as Leave at 22.30 on the 23rd of June 2016.

    About the time Farage conceded.
    Happy memories. I don’t mean the result - I mean that amazing spreadsheet on here that made us all a killing.
    Confession: I fell asleep at about 11pm in a drunken stupor on Brexit Vote night, with the result in the balance but Remain still definitely expected to win.... I woke at 4am to find about 30,000 messages on my phone, emails, etc, with friends shrieking WAKE UP WAKE UP Leave has won!

    An extraordinary moment
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,167
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    What do we want? Results. When do we want them? Now.

    Is it true we will have to wait til SUNDAY for the Scottish results? Why??

    Cray cray
    Most will be Saturday. I think some of the border seats may be Sunday though which presumably means we won't get the list seats for at least that region until then either. Its just not good enough.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 60,265

    When do we get the Scottish results? Is it tomorrow or later?

    Final results Saturday.
    Farcical to take so long.

    Is that just because they have to be unBritish in everything in Scotland so won't start counting tonight?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,119

    When do we get the Scottish results? Is it tomorrow or later?

    Some tomorrow. Some Sat. And 2023 for the IndyRef
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219
    Hartlepool Mail - Hartlepool by-election LIVE blog through the night

    https://www.hartlepoolmail.co.uk/news/people/hartlepool-by-election-live-blog-through-the-night-3227566
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 12,486

    When do we get the Scottish results? Is it tomorrow or later?

    Half the seats count tomorrow. Half on Saturday, And once they have all declared Monsieur D'Hont gets on with counting the list results.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 1,914

    When do we get the Scottish results? Is it tomorrow or later?

    Most constituency counting tomorrow, the list counting Saturday, as I understand it. Don't really think "cos Covid" is a proper rationale for it though.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,022
    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    The last time a Conservative was elected in Hartlepool Cliff Richard was No.1 with "Living Doll", Ben-Hur was in the cinema, Winston Churchill was alive, England had not yet won a World Cup & Tony Blair was 6. Ignore the hot takes playing it down. If it happens, it's a big deal"

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1390404962665091074
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    Leon said:

    Same price as Leave at 22.30 on the 23rd of June 2016.

    About the time Farage conceded.
    Happy memories. I don’t mean the result - I mean that amazing spreadsheet on here that made us all a killing.
    Confession: I fell asleep at about 11pm in a drunken stupor on Brexit Vote night, with the result in the balance but Remain still definitely expected to win.... I woke at 4am to find about 30,000 messages on my phone, emails, etc, with friends shrieking WAKE UP WAKE UP Leave has won!

    An extraordinary moment
    There are those moments, aren’t there, when you know history just happened? The county council elections in Worcestershire or Suffolk will probably never be that.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,201
    "Despite William Hill’s verdict, a Tory source said it was “looking tough in Hartlepool” as “Labour have flooded the area with activists”.

    Conservative staff had been encouraged to use spare time on Thursday evening to make calls for the candidate Jill Mortimer.

    The source said there was a “mixed picture in elections across the country” and suggested Labour had “done really well on their expectation management”.
  • guybrushguybrush Posts: 207
    edited May 6
    Coming in late on the wokism discussion on the previous thread. I don't think the issue is being exaggerated.

    I'm in the same industry as Casino, and moved over from a public sector client organisation to a large corporate. I was looking forward to less of the BS. Well, turns out my new place is OBSESSED with the wokeness, and pursues it with a ruthless efficiency and that puts my old employer to shame. It's cascaded down through performance objectives, so anyone looking to progress has to stay on message.

    I think some of this is cynically wanting to be seen as thought leaders, to be in a good position to pick up public sector contracts. But as activists get put in to senior roles, and the general ideology becomes endemic do wonder how things will end up.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219

    Perhaps I missed it, but any exit polling released from anywhere?

    Nope. And not many results till the early hours - but should be just early evening where you are!
    Are you at (or going to be at) your local count, Nick?

    Hopefully NOT pestering the Tory women for a wee smooch? Best to let them come to you!
  • TazTaz Posts: 1,629
    Expectation management. I think they will hold,Durham based on what someone said on here and a Tory candidate told me on Facebook. The High number of independent candidates is helping labour.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 42,964

    Well, I'm not staying up. I know we've been starved of elections for nearly 18 months but there's not that much coming in until 4-5am and I have work tomorrow. By far the most important elections for the UK are in Scotland and we won't know about those until well into Friday.

    So, I'll sign off for the night.

    Likewise. I might get up early am to check in if I am struggling to sleep as has been the case for last couple of weeks.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 8,380
    @BritainElects

    ICYMI: our final Scottish parliament forecast - as polls close:

    SNP: 62 MSPs (-1)
    CON: 27 (-4)
    LAB: 24 (-)
    GRN: 11 (+5)
    LDEM: 5 (-)

    Chgs. w/ 2016
    65 seats needed for a majority
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    Isn’t it a bit foolish of him to concede the idea that the leadership is a problem?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 67,843

    @BritainElects

    ICYMI: our final Scottish parliament forecast - as polls close:

    SNP: 62 MSPs (-1)
    CON: 27 (-4)
    LAB: 24 (-)
    GRN: 11 (+5)
    LDEM: 5 (-)

    Chgs. w/ 2016
    65 seats needed for a majority

    Best that could be hoped for I suppose. I'd take it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013

    When do we get the Scottish results? Is it tomorrow or later?

    Final results Saturday.
    Farcical to take so long.

    Is that just because they have to be unBritish in everything in Scotland so won't start counting tonight?
    Good night all. My forecast is a good night for the Tories in tonight's results, but much less good when Scotland comes in. There and Wales is where the interest is.

    My £30 at evens on the Tories in Hartlepool looks safe. Let's hope Binface triumphs over the minnows.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,167

    @BritainElects

    ICYMI: our final Scottish parliament forecast - as polls close:

    SNP: 62 MSPs (-1)
    CON: 27 (-4)
    LAB: 24 (-)
    GRN: 11 (+5)
    LDEM: 5 (-)

    Chgs. w/ 2016
    65 seats needed for a majority

    I will not believe that those little green shits will do that well. Hell, I'd vote SNP first.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 23,883
    For me the biggest question is will the SNP get an outright solo majority. That's the tie of the round. I have no bets on it because I can't superforecast Scottish politics.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 67,843
    DavidL said:

    @BritainElects

    ICYMI: our final Scottish parliament forecast - as polls close:

    SNP: 62 MSPs (-1)
    CON: 27 (-4)
    LAB: 24 (-)
    GRN: 11 (+5)
    LDEM: 5 (-)

    Chgs. w/ 2016
    65 seats needed for a majority

    I will not believe that those little green shits will do that well. Hell, I'd vote SNP first.
    Yes, but surely it's those already voting SNP first (or at least in constituency) who will be voting for them!
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219

    "Despite William Hill’s verdict, a Tory source said it was “looking tough in Hartlepool” as “Labour have flooded the area with activists”.

    Conservative staff had been encouraged to use spare time on Thursday evening to make calls for the candidate Jill Mortimer.

    The source said there was a “mixed picture in elections across the country” and suggested Labour had “done really well on their expectation management”.
    Re: poor-mouthing, timing is everything (or close to it).

    IF a few hours BEFORE polls close, then is part of GOTV = Get Out the Vote. That is, telling lazy supporters to get their fingers out and go vote! OR risk snatching defeat from the hands of victory.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 4,440

    @BritainElects

    ICYMI: our final Scottish parliament forecast - as polls close:

    SNP: 62 MSPs (-1)
    CON: 27 (-4)
    LAB: 24 (-)
    GRN: 11 (+5)
    LDEM: 5 (-)

    Chgs. w/ 2016
    65 seats needed for a majority

    Great Green showing there.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013

    @BritainElects

    ICYMI: our final Scottish parliament forecast - as polls close:

    SNP: 62 MSPs (-1)
    CON: 27 (-4)
    LAB: 24 (-)
    GRN: 11 (+5)
    LDEM: 5 (-)

    Chgs. w/ 2016
    65 seats needed for a majority

    No Alba...?

    A swing to Independence nonetheless.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,353
    Jonathan said:

    No dirt, but some comments as a Labour member.

    The Labour Party appears to be irrevocably, terminally split.
    Starmer is actually doing a good job holding things together, things are far worse than they appear.
    Keeping the lights on is taking all Starmers energy.

    I believe Starmer made a political mistake personally getting involved with the corruption story. He should have delegated the attack and risen above it. Party splits make that tricky.

    The story was toxic for Labour as it was an old fashioned Westminster centric story and the electorate are not best pleased with Westminster post Brexit. He tarnished himself.

    This one was always going to be hard due to vaccines. Starmer might have found a cause outside of Westminster, looking ahead and made it the centre. The end of furlough, NHS 1% pay rise or tax rises. Anything that came from the insights into the electorate.

    I fear Starmer may not yet be a political animal with antennae tuned to the electorate. He is set up right now as a perfect reforming Labour Home Secretary, but not yet the street fighter leader Labour needs to claw back.

    The coming storm will test him and see if he can make the leap.

    Commendably honest

    THIS is a very good analysis of Labour problems by Brexiteer Guardian Economics editor Larry Elliot


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/05/labour-remainers-brexit-uk-eu-leavers

    As he says, Labour will not prosper until they accept and embrace Brexit. This is going to be very hard for them - so many are Remoaners - but it is necessary. Like the Tories and gay marriage, like Blair and Clause 4, it is a symbolic step that needs to be taken to detoxify the brand. Once they do this - embrace Brexit - it will all become so much easier, and - I believe - many trad voters will return to them

    Is Starmer able to do this? I doubt it. He wanted a 2nd ref. But he could pave the way for a man or woman that WILL do this

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,503
    edited May 6

    There are those moments, aren’t there, when you know history just happened? The county council elections in Worcestershire or Suffolk will probably never be that.

    If you live in Worcestershire or Suffolk, why not?

    I am going to drink myself into a stupor on Sunday if the reign of the fantastically inept Oxfordshire Conservatives is finally halted.

    The Conservatives are not in any danger of losing Worcestershire. Which is a shame, because everything I know about them suggests that the Worcestershire party is beyond inept, verging on actively malicious. A bunch of 70-something Thatcherite holdouts of the sort that even Oxfordshire got rid of 20 years ago - if any of you remember the revolting Keith Mitchell, former council leader of Oxfordshire, then Worcestershire is a council full of them.
  • TazTaz Posts: 1,629

    "Despite William Hill’s verdict, a Tory source said it was “looking tough in Hartlepool” as “Labour have flooded the area with activists”.

    Conservative staff had been encouraged to use spare time on Thursday evening to make calls for the candidate Jill Mortimer.

    The source said there was a “mixed picture in elections across the country” and suggested Labour had “done really well on their expectation management”.
    Many of the full time activists are being got rid of tomorrow by labour.

    Anyway I’m sure a coach load of the Owen Jones types running around Hartlepool Telling people to get out and vote labour is going to work.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 1,267
    edited May 6
    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    The last time a Conservative was elected in Hartlepool Cliff Richard was No.1 with "Living Doll", Ben-Hur was in the cinema, Winston Churchill was alive, England had not yet won a World Cup & Tony Blair was 6. Ignore the hot takes playing it down. If it happens, it's a big deal"

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1390404962665091074

    The last time a Conservative Minister resigned for lying to the House was Profumo in 1963, so what..
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 8,380
    Foxy said:

    @BritainElects

    ICYMI: our final Scottish parliament forecast - as polls close:

    SNP: 62 MSPs (-1)
    CON: 27 (-4)
    LAB: 24 (-)
    GRN: 11 (+5)
    LDEM: 5 (-)

    Chgs. w/ 2016
    65 seats needed for a majority

    No Alba...?

    A swing to Independence nonetheless.
    Only because of the vagaries of the electoral system.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,201
    Each Hartlepool ballot box from 57 polling stations contains four separate ballot papers that have to be sorted before the Parliamentary by-election can be counted. Gonna be a long night....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,201
    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    No dirt, but some comments as a Labour member.

    The Labour Party appears to be irrevocably, terminally split.
    Starmer is actually doing a good job holding things together, things are far worse than they appear.
    Keeping the lights on is taking all Starmers energy.

    I believe Starmer made a political mistake personally getting involved with the corruption story. He should have delegated the attack and risen above it. Party splits make that tricky.

    The story was toxic for Labour as it was an old fashioned Westminster centric story and the electorate are not best pleased with Westminster post Brexit. He tarnished himself.

    This one was always going to be hard due to vaccines. Starmer might have found a cause outside of Westminster, looking ahead and made it the centre. The end of furlough, NHS 1% pay rise or tax rises. Anything that came from the insights into the electorate.

    I fear Starmer may not yet be a political animal with antennae tuned to the electorate. He is set up right now as a perfect reforming Labour Home Secretary, but not yet the street fighter leader Labour needs to claw back.

    The coming storm will test him and see if he can make the leap.

    Commendably honest

    THIS is a very good analysis of Labour problems by Brexiteer Guardian Economics editor Larry Elliot


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/05/labour-remainers-brexit-uk-eu-leavers

    As he says, Labour will not prosper until they accept and embrace Brexit. This is going to be very hard for them - so many are Remoaners - but it is necessary. Like the Tories and gay marriage, like Blair and Clause 4, it is a symbolic step that needs to be taken to detoxify the brand. Once they do this - embrace Brexit - it will all become so much easier, and - I believe - many trad voters will return to them

    Is Starmer able to do this? I doubt it. He wanted a 2nd ref. But he could pave the way for a man or woman that WILL do this

    I said exactly this on here several days ago. But Brexit-hate is seared on Labour's collective soul.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    Jonathan said:

    No dirt, but some comments as a Labour member.

    The Labour Party appears to be irrevocably, terminally split.
    Starmer is actually doing a good job holding things together, things are far worse than they appear.
    Keeping the lights on is taking all Starmers energy.

    I believe Starmer made a political mistake personally getting involved with the corruption story. He should have delegated the attack and risen above it. Party splits make that tricky.

    The story was toxic for Labour as it was an old fashioned Westminster centric story and the electorate are not best pleased with Westminster post Brexit. He tarnished himself.

    This one was always going to be hard due to vaccines. Starmer might have found a cause outside of Westminster, looking ahead and made it the centre. The end of furlough, NHS 1% pay rise or tax rises. Anything that came from the insights into the electorate.

    I fear Starmer may not yet be a political animal with antennae tuned to the electorate. He is set up right now as a perfect reforming Labour Home Secretary, but not yet the street fighter leader Labour needs to claw back.

    The coming storm will test him and see if he can make the leap.

    The John Lewis stunt was incredibly tin earred. In normal times, no problem, 10,000+ people a day dying in India and there he is dicking around doing bants for the twitter.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    The last time a Conservative was elected in Hartlepool Cliff Richard was No.1 with "Living Doll", Ben-Hur was in the cinema, Winston Churchill was alive, England had not yet won a World Cup & Tony Blair was 6. Ignore the hot takes playing it down. If it happens, it's a big deal"

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1390404962665091074

    The last time a Conservative Minister resigned for lying to the House was Profumo in 1963, so what..
    Isn’t it more the case that he resigned for not lying well enough, rather than for lying...?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219
    edited May 6
    Leon said:

    Same price as Leave at 22.30 on the 23rd of June 2016.

    About the time Farage conceded.
    Happy memories. I don’t mean the result - I mean that amazing spreadsheet on here that made us all a killing.
    Confession: I fell asleep at about 11pm in a drunken stupor on Brexit Vote night, with the result in the balance but Remain still definitely expected to win.... I woke at 4am to find about 30,000 messages on my phone, emails, etc, with friends shrieking WAKE UP WAKE UP Leave has won!

    An extraordinary moment
    "I fell asleep at about 11pm in a drunken stupor on Brexit Vote night"

    Special occasion? Or normal routine?

    On Election night 2001, fell asleep in my (grossly overpriced) Windsor B&B, mid broadcast. Not from drunkeness, but from tiredness. AND extreme boredom.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 1,267

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    The last time a Conservative was elected in Hartlepool Cliff Richard was No.1 with "Living Doll", Ben-Hur was in the cinema, Winston Churchill was alive, England had not yet won a World Cup & Tony Blair was 6. Ignore the hot takes playing it down. If it happens, it's a big deal"

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1390404962665091074

    The last time a Conservative Minister resigned for lying to the House was Profumo in 1963, so what..
    Isn’t it more the case that he resigned for not lying well enough, rather than for lying...?
    :wink:
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923

    When do we get the Scottish results? Is it tomorrow or later?

    Final results Saturday.
    Farcical to take so long.

    Is that just because they have to be unBritish in everything in Scotland so won't start counting tonight?
    Blame Labour for that system. It was specifically designed to be extremely British.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219
    Cbronicle live - Returning officer in Sunderland threatens to send people home
    Sunderland returning officer Pat Melia has just promised to send home anyone who isn't following social distancing rules tonight. "We've done this for a year - please do it properly tonight"

    Plus - First results from Blyth could be soon
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,353

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    No dirt, but some comments as a Labour member.

    The Labour Party appears to be irrevocably, terminally split.
    Starmer is actually doing a good job holding things together, things are far worse than they appear.
    Keeping the lights on is taking all Starmers energy.

    I believe Starmer made a political mistake personally getting involved with the corruption story. He should have delegated the attack and risen above it. Party splits make that tricky.

    The story was toxic for Labour as it was an old fashioned Westminster centric story and the electorate are not best pleased with Westminster post Brexit. He tarnished himself.

    This one was always going to be hard due to vaccines. Starmer might have found a cause outside of Westminster, looking ahead and made it the centre. The end of furlough, NHS 1% pay rise or tax rises. Anything that came from the insights into the electorate.

    I fear Starmer may not yet be a political animal with antennae tuned to the electorate. He is set up right now as a perfect reforming Labour Home Secretary, but not yet the street fighter leader Labour needs to claw back.

    The coming storm will test him and see if he can make the leap.

    Commendably honest

    THIS is a very good analysis of Labour problems by Brexiteer Guardian Economics editor Larry Elliot


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/05/labour-remainers-brexit-uk-eu-leavers

    As he says, Labour will not prosper until they accept and embrace Brexit. This is going to be very hard for them - so many are Remoaners - but it is necessary. Like the Tories and gay marriage, like Blair and Clause 4, it is a symbolic step that needs to be taken to detoxify the brand. Once they do this - embrace Brexit - it will all become so much easier, and - I believe - many trad voters will return to them

    Is Starmer able to do this? I doubt it. He wanted a 2nd ref. But he could pave the way for a man or woman that WILL do this

    I said exactly this on here several days ago. But Brexit-hate is seared on Labour's collective soul.
    So it will be hard. But that's the point, voters don't take a crucial change of opinion seriously, unless it comes at a clear emotional price. Like dumping Clause 4.

    Starmer is suffering because his volte-face looks easy and glib. He segues from a 2nd refrendum to shagging the Brexit flag? - and we are all meant to believe him. We don't.

    Labour need a leader who REALLY believes that Brexit can be an opportunity. Probably one that voted for it. Certainly not a leader that campaigned to cancel and ignore the Leave vote via a 2nd vote
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,105
    A little late but : BONG! :D
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 600
    Hasn’t Sunderland declared yet?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,424
    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    No dirt, but some comments as a Labour member.

    The Labour Party appears to be irrevocably, terminally split.
    Starmer is actually doing a good job holding things together, things are far worse than they appear.
    Keeping the lights on is taking all Starmers energy.

    I believe Starmer made a political mistake personally getting involved with the corruption story. He should have delegated the attack and risen above it. Party splits make that tricky.

    The story was toxic for Labour as it was an old fashioned Westminster centric story and the electorate are not best pleased with Westminster post Brexit. He tarnished himself.

    This one was always going to be hard due to vaccines. Starmer might have found a cause outside of Westminster, looking ahead and made it the centre. The end of furlough, NHS 1% pay rise or tax rises. Anything that came from the insights into the electorate.

    I fear Starmer may not yet be a political animal with antennae tuned to the electorate. He is set up right now as a perfect reforming Labour Home Secretary, but not yet the street fighter leader Labour needs to claw back.

    The coming storm will test him and see if he can make the leap.

    Commendably honest

    THIS is a very good analysis of Labour problems by Brexiteer Guardian Economics editor Larry Elliot


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/05/labour-remainers-brexit-uk-eu-leavers

    As he says, Labour will not prosper until they accept and embrace Brexit. This is going to be very hard for them - so many are Remoaners - but it is necessary. Like the Tories and gay marriage, like Blair and Clause 4, it is a symbolic step that needs to be taken to detoxify the brand. Once they do this - embrace Brexit - it will all become so much easier, and - I believe - many trad voters will return to them

    Is Starmer able to do this? I doubt it. He wanted a 2nd ref. But he could pave the way for a man or woman that WILL do this

    Labour has a choice to make before that.

    Does Labour want to fight to retain its constitutional role as one of two parties capable of forming a government under FPTP and accept the need to be a broad representative church? Or does it want to prioritise ideological purity and become a left wing minor party / pressure group.

    Once it has figured that out it can deal with Brexit.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 3,434

    Cbronicle live - Returning officer in Sunderland threatens to send people home
    Sunderland returning officer Pat Melia has just promised to send home anyone who isn't following social distancing rules tonight. "We've done this for a year - please do it properly tonight"

    Plus - First results from Blyth could be soon

    Maybe people realising social distancing is not needed?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,353

    Leon said:

    Same price as Leave at 22.30 on the 23rd of June 2016.

    About the time Farage conceded.
    Happy memories. I don’t mean the result - I mean that amazing spreadsheet on here that made us all a killing.
    Confession: I fell asleep at about 11pm in a drunken stupor on Brexit Vote night, with the result in the balance but Remain still definitely expected to win.... I woke at 4am to find about 30,000 messages on my phone, emails, etc, with friends shrieking WAKE UP WAKE UP Leave has won!

    An extraordinary moment
    "I fell asleep at about 11pm in a drunken stupor on Brexit Vote night"

    Special occasion? Or normal routine?

    On Election night 2001, fell asleep in my (grossly overpriced) Windsor B&B, mid broadcast. Not from drunkeness, but from tiredness. AND extreme boredom.
    Well, it was a tremendously boring election. As was 2005

    I miss massively boring elections
  • noisywinternoisywinter Posts: 246
    £653k matched on Betfair in Hartlepool...seems very high is that normal for a by election?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 67,843

    Cbronicle live - Returning officer in Sunderland threatens to send people home
    Sunderland returning officer Pat Melia has just promised to send home anyone who isn't following social distancing rules tonight. "We've done this for a year - please do it properly tonight"

    Plus - First results from Blyth could be soon

    Maybe people realising social distancing is not needed?
    At this point probably not, but the council running the count will be required to have such measures, so if people want the count to proceed without disruption they'll have to grin and bear it.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,214
    Daniel Holland
    @danhollandnews
    Talk is that it will be a nervous night [in Newcastle] for Labour (as it will elsewhere in the region!)

    Seats in the outer west will be worth keeping an eye on - Labour only won Lemington and Denton+Westerhope by around 100 votes last time out.

    https://twitter.com/danhollandnews/status/1390424378882527235
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547

    Well I went to vote today but it was out of a sense of duty rather than any enthusiasm.

    In the CC elections my choice was:

    A Labour bod who would have difficulty sitting the right way on a toilet (that is a reflection of him personally rather than the party he was poorly representing)

    A Green bod who thinks we should ban hydrocarbon based products AND animal derived products - so feck knows what he thinks we should be wearing.

    A Tory mouthpiece who likes to vote for stuff and then blame others for making him do it. If you are in favour of large scale housebuilding then have the courage of your convictions to admit it rather than saying it was all the fault of some big boys who ran away.

    So I spoiled my paper. Politely though. It is not the fault of the person counting that the choices are so poor so I don't see the need to be offensive.

    On the PCC I voted for the Reform Party first choice and the Lincolnshire Independents second. They won't win but even if they did they couldn't do a worse job than the rest of them and it keeps it fun.

    I have said it so many times before on here but we really are poorly served by our politicians at almost every level of politics.

    It’s always fun to see other people’s logic for how they voted. In our parish council elections I spent a lot of of time working out which “independent” candidate wasn’t a local Tory Party stooge and part of the local clique. Happily, on the day, they were marked up as LibDem (controversial, I know, at parish level) which made it easy to vote for them.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,353
    Is there a good website that updates results in real time?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    kle4 said:

    @BritainElects

    ICYMI: our final Scottish parliament forecast - as polls close:

    SNP: 62 MSPs (-1)
    CON: 27 (-4)
    LAB: 24 (-)
    GRN: 11 (+5)
    LDEM: 5 (-)

    Chgs. w/ 2016
    65 seats needed for a majority

    Best that could be hoped for I suppose. I'd take it.
    The Scottish Parliament vote for another referendum comes about five minutes after that result. That's when the fun and games really gets started, of course. What happens when Johnson tells them, ever so politely, to fuck off?

    One thing's certain: this won't be resolved through the courts. The constitution is a reserved competence. The courts can't force the House of Commons to vote to grant a Section 30 order because the Scottish Parliament wants one, any more than they could force it to vote to abolish the monarchy or declare war on Botswana because that's what MSPs wanted.

    If Scotland's independence movement can't persuade the UK Parliament to change tack then they have only two options: to put up with it and wait for a more conciliatory Parliament to be elected, or attempt a revolution.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 30,757
    Just backed Lab at 23s (bf). Backed them earlier at 13s.

    It's just good value.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219

    Cbronicle live - Returning officer in Sunderland threatens to send people home
    Sunderland returning officer Pat Melia has just promised to send home anyone who isn't following social distancing rules tonight. "We've done this for a year - please do it properly tonight"

    Plus - First results from Blyth could be soon

    Maybe people realising social distancing is not needed?
    Rules are rules, most especially in election counting centers. I've been there - have you?

    If you don't like it, leave. Same rule for all.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 30,757
    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    No dirt, but some comments as a Labour member.

    The Labour Party appears to be irrevocably, terminally split.
    Starmer is actually doing a good job holding things together, things are far worse than they appear.
    Keeping the lights on is taking all Starmers energy.

    I believe Starmer made a political mistake personally getting involved with the corruption story. He should have delegated the attack and risen above it. Party splits make that tricky.

    The story was toxic for Labour as it was an old fashioned Westminster centric story and the electorate are not best pleased with Westminster post Brexit. He tarnished himself.

    This one was always going to be hard due to vaccines. Starmer might have found a cause outside of Westminster, looking ahead and made it the centre. The end of furlough, NHS 1% pay rise or tax rises. Anything that came from the insights into the electorate.

    I fear Starmer may not yet be a political animal with antennae tuned to the electorate. He is set up right now as a perfect reforming Labour Home Secretary, but not yet the street fighter leader Labour needs to claw back.

    The coming storm will test him and see if he can make the leap.

    Commendably honest

    THIS is a very good analysis of Labour problems by Brexiteer Guardian Economics editor Larry Elliot


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/05/labour-remainers-brexit-uk-eu-leavers

    As he says, Labour will not prosper until they accept and embrace Brexit. This is going to be very hard for them - so many are Remoaners - but it is necessary. Like the Tories and gay marriage, like Blair and Clause 4, it is a symbolic step that needs to be taken to detoxify the brand. Once they do this - embrace Brexit - it will all become so much easier, and - I believe - many trad voters will return to them

    Is Starmer able to do this? I doubt it. He wanted a 2nd ref. But he could pave the way for a man or woman that WILL do this

    Labour has a choice to make before that.

    Does Labour want to fight to retain its constitutional role as one of two parties capable of forming a government under FPTP and accept the need to be a broad representative church? Or does it want to prioritise ideological purity and become a left wing minor party / pressure group.

    Once it has figured that out it can deal with Brexit.
    Great set of posts on Lab, Jonathan.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 30,757
    Leon said:

    Is there a good website that updates results in real time?

    You're just Mr Party Time aren't you.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    No dirt, but some comments as a Labour member.

    The Labour Party appears to be irrevocably, terminally split.
    Starmer is actually doing a good job holding things together, things are far worse than they appear.
    Keeping the lights on is taking all Starmers energy.

    I believe Starmer made a political mistake personally getting involved with the corruption story. He should have delegated the attack and risen above it. Party splits make that tricky.

    The story was toxic for Labour as it was an old fashioned Westminster centric story and the electorate are not best pleased with Westminster post Brexit. He tarnished himself.

    This one was always going to be hard due to vaccines. Starmer might have found a cause outside of Westminster, looking ahead and made it the centre. The end of furlough, NHS 1% pay rise or tax rises. Anything that came from the insights into the electorate.

    I fear Starmer may not yet be a political animal with antennae tuned to the electorate. He is set up right now as a perfect reforming Labour Home Secretary, but not yet the street fighter leader Labour needs to claw back.

    The coming storm will test him and see if he can make the leap.

    Commendably honest

    THIS is a very good analysis of Labour problems by Brexiteer Guardian Economics editor Larry Elliot


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/05/labour-remainers-brexit-uk-eu-leavers

    As he says, Labour will not prosper until they accept and embrace Brexit. This is going to be very hard for them - so many are Remoaners - but it is necessary. Like the Tories and gay marriage, like Blair and Clause 4, it is a symbolic step that needs to be taken to detoxify the brand. Once they do this - embrace Brexit - it will all become so much easier, and - I believe - many trad voters will return to them

    Is Starmer able to do this? I doubt it. He wanted a 2nd ref. But he could pave the way for a man or woman that WILL do this

    Labour has a choice to make before that.

    Does Labour want to fight to retain its constitutional role as one of two parties capable of forming a government under FPTP and accept the need to be a broad representative church? Or does it want to prioritise ideological purity and become a left wing minor party / pressure group.

    Once it has figured that out it can deal with Brexit.
    They need to get off the twitter machine.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,353
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Is there a good website that updates results in real time?

    You're just Mr Party Time aren't you.
    It is faintly tragic. But I have adjusted to my new persona. it's important to accept yourself
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 16,895

    Perhaps I missed it, but any exit polling released from anywhere?

    Nope. And not many results till the early hours - but should be just early evening where you are!
    Are you at (or going to be at) your local count, Nick?

    Hopefully NOT pestering the Tory women for a wee smooch? Best to let them come to you!
    Yes, I will. Not staying up for Masopool, as I need to be there by 10 or so. And socially distanced smooching would be challenging. Hell, a supporter shook my hand when I was telling earlier - the first time anyone has done that for 18 months. I hesitated fractionally before taking it, but with luck he didn't notice.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 3,434

    Cbronicle live - Returning officer in Sunderland threatens to send people home
    Sunderland returning officer Pat Melia has just promised to send home anyone who isn't following social distancing rules tonight. "We've done this for a year - please do it properly tonight"

    Plus - First results from Blyth could be soon

    Maybe people realising social distancing is not needed?
    Rules are rules, most especially in election counting centers. I've been there - have you?

    If you don't like it, leave. Same rule for all.
    yes nights like this made for self important bossy types
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 37,868
    Leon said:

    Is there a good website that updates results in real time?

    What results? :lol:
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 29,957
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Same price as Leave at 22.30 on the 23rd of June 2016.

    About the time Farage conceded.
    Happy memories. I don’t mean the result - I mean that amazing spreadsheet on here that made us all a killing.
    Confession: I fell asleep at about 11pm in a drunken stupor on Brexit Vote night, with the result in the balance but Remain still definitely expected to win.... I woke at 4am to find about 30,000 messages on my phone, emails, etc, with friends shrieking WAKE UP WAKE UP Leave has won!

    An extraordinary moment
    "I fell asleep at about 11pm in a drunken stupor on Brexit Vote night"

    Special occasion? Or normal routine?

    On Election night 2001, fell asleep in my (grossly overpriced) Windsor B&B, mid broadcast. Not from drunkeness, but from tiredness. AND extreme boredom.
    Well, it was a tremendously boring election. As was 2005

    I miss massively boring elections
    I was a Brexit counting agent in Luton in 2016, and at 4 pm, when I left exhausted, with the Luton resuit still to declare, I did not know who had won nationally. There was a total ban on mobile phones and tablets, so I had no idea what the national picture was.

    My tally was that Leave had won 54/46 in Luton, suggesting we would just fall short nationally, when the actual result was 57/43. It was only when I switched my car radio on that I discovered we had won.
This discussion has been closed.