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Looking forward to tomorrow’s locals from Michael Thrasher – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    gealbhan said:

    Brom said:

    I had a feeling, and mentioned as much, that the dip we apparently witnessed was a temporary tumbleweed reaction to the sleaze onslaught.

    Such temporary highs and lows do occur.

    We know for example that there can be conference bounces of a similar amount to the sleaze drop: 4 or 5%.

    What really counts is whether it sticks. Everything we are hearing on the ground seems to concur with a Cons poll lead of generous proportions. 9% would not be surprising.
    Correct. The 1 point lead polls are most likely bunkum. Usually you get a feel about where we stand and looking at polls in general, constituency polling and the public response it really doesn’t feel neck and neck.

    Brom said:

    I had a feeling, and mentioned as much, that the dip we apparently witnessed was a temporary tumbleweed reaction to the sleaze onslaught.

    Such temporary highs and lows do occur.

    We know for example that there can be conference bounces of a similar amount to the sleaze drop: 4 or 5%.

    What really counts is whether it sticks. Everything we are hearing on the ground seems to concur with a Cons poll lead of generous proportions. 9% would not be surprising.
    Correct. The 1 point lead polls are most likely bunkum. Usually you get a feel about where we stand and looking at polls in general, constituency polling and the public response it really doesn’t feel neck and neck.

    That’s funny. Because it does with me. 🧐

    Labour no longer “feel” rubbish and controversial as much as Boris and his government does. It does feel closer than some of the very big poll margins.

    Closer than the big ones, if pushed Id say the 6 point average is about right. But I’m confident the Tories are on 40 points upwards but I can’t see Starmer on similar. Of course if Labour are it bodes very well for them because I think they have plenty of room for improvement.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    edited May 2021

    gealbhan said:

    Brom said:

    I had a feeling, and mentioned as much, that the dip we apparently witnessed was a temporary tumbleweed reaction to the sleaze onslaught.

    Such temporary highs and lows do occur.

    We know for example that there can be conference bounces of a similar amount to the sleaze drop: 4 or 5%.

    What really counts is whether it sticks. Everything we are hearing on the ground seems to concur with a Cons poll lead of generous proportions. 9% would not be surprising.
    Correct. The 1 point lead polls are most likely bunkum. Usually you get a feel about where we stand and looking at polls in general, constituency polling and the public response it really doesn’t feel neck and neck.

    Brom said:

    I had a feeling, and mentioned as much, that the dip we apparently witnessed was a temporary tumbleweed reaction to the sleaze onslaught.

    Such temporary highs and lows do occur.

    We know for example that there can be conference bounces of a similar amount to the sleaze drop: 4 or 5%.

    What really counts is whether it sticks. Everything we are hearing on the ground seems to concur with a Cons poll lead of generous proportions. 9% would not be surprising.
    Correct. The 1 point lead polls are most likely bunkum. Usually you get a feel about where we stand and looking at polls in general, constituency polling and the public response it really doesn’t feel neck and neck.

    That’s funny. Because it does with me. 🧐

    Labour no longer “feel” rubbish and controversial as much as Boris and his government does. It does feel closer than some of the very big poll margins.
    48 million are entitled to vote tomorrow and the verdict will be in by the weekend

    Not too long to wait
    Yes. 🙂. We will have a reasonably clear picture Friday evening if results are out of kilter with much polling. Weekend papers and politics shows will then pick the bones out of it to educate us not just what, but why, which could then set the political narrative.

    One interesting aside is children are allowed to vote in Wales this time, it will be interesting if any other party but Green get a look in with them.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,031
    Brexiteers telling the French to tone down their rhetoric...

    Latest guidance is Dominic Raab has spoken to his French counterpart to demand Paris tone down their rhetoric.

    Trade Minister Greg Hands was also speaking to ministers on the other side of the Channel in a bid to calm growing tension.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1390034418992025600

    Beyond parody
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,756

    Now the top story on BBC

    BBC News - UK sends Royal Navy to patrol Jersey port amid fishing row
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57003069

    This is a deliberately engineered argument to reinforce Brexit voters to remember a) Boris got us out and b) that the perfidious French are the enemy....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,239
    Scott_xP said:

    Brexiteers telling the French to tone down their rhetoric...

    Latest guidance is Dominic Raab has spoken to his French counterpart to demand Paris tone down their rhetoric.

    Trade Minister Greg Hands was also speaking to ministers on the other side of the Channel in a bid to calm growing tension.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1390034418992025600

    Beyond parody

    Nonsense - absolutely correct course of action
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    gealbhan said:

    Brom said:

    I had a feeling, and mentioned as much, that the dip we apparently witnessed was a temporary tumbleweed reaction to the sleaze onslaught.

    Such temporary highs and lows do occur.

    We know for example that there can be conference bounces of a similar amount to the sleaze drop: 4 or 5%.

    What really counts is whether it sticks. Everything we are hearing on the ground seems to concur with a Cons poll lead of generous proportions. 9% would not be surprising.
    Correct. The 1 point lead polls are most likely bunkum. Usually you get a feel about where we stand and looking at polls in general, constituency polling and the public response it really doesn’t feel neck and neck.

    Brom said:

    I had a feeling, and mentioned as much, that the dip we apparently witnessed was a temporary tumbleweed reaction to the sleaze onslaught.

    Such temporary highs and lows do occur.

    We know for example that there can be conference bounces of a similar amount to the sleaze drop: 4 or 5%.

    What really counts is whether it sticks. Everything we are hearing on the ground seems to concur with a Cons poll lead of generous proportions. 9% would not be surprising.
    Correct. The 1 point lead polls are most likely bunkum. Usually you get a feel about where we stand and looking at polls in general, constituency polling and the public response it really doesn’t feel neck and neck.

    That’s funny. Because it does with me. 🧐

    Labour no longer “feel” rubbish and controversial as much as Boris and his government does. It does feel closer than some of the very big poll margins.
    For what it's worth, Labour phone canvassing down here in Surrey has been the best for years, entirely in a seat we didn't even contest 4 years ago (due to an abortive deal with the LDs). So maybe some of that peculiar mismatch between national polling and local polling is explained by a Labour surge in the south. Which won't win us a Parliamentary seat here, but will help if replicated in several nearby marginals.
    Could well be part of the "Londoners moving out of London" trend.

    It will be ironic if a Labour voting London and the South East ends up paying the taxes to support public services in a Tory voting Midlands and North!
  • CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421
    Floater said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    "Boris Johnson is send has sent two Royal Navy offshore patrol vessels to Jersey amid concerns over the threat of a blockade by French fishermen

    The PM and Jersey Chief Minister have agreed the move as a 'precautionary measure'"

    Things like this can escalate very quickly. What happens if France retaliates and an incident happens?
    So let me see if I read you clearly.

    France issues threats

    We take steps just in case

    Any escalation from then on is our fault?

    France has acted out ever since Brexit - this is more of the same I am afraid
    I wasnt applying blame to us, but that there is a risk of an outcome that neither side want.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,031

    Nonsense - absolutely correct course of action

    Beyond parody...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,962
    Scott_xP said:

    Brexiteers telling the French to tone down their rhetoric...

    Latest guidance is Dominic Raab has spoken to his French counterpart to demand Paris tone down their rhetoric.

    Trade Minister Greg Hands was also speaking to ministers on the other side of the Channel in a bid to calm growing tension.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1390034418992025600

    Beyond parody

    Na, I'm pretty sure they started it.

    ;)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,264
    Scott_xP said:

    Brexiteers telling the French to tone down their rhetoric...

    Latest guidance is Dominic Raab has spoken to his French counterpart to demand Paris tone down their rhetoric.

    Trade Minister Greg Hands was also speaking to ministers on the other side of the Channel in a bid to calm growing tension.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1390034418992025600

    Beyond parody

    Why, is it quasi effective?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,543

    I had a feeling, and mentioned as much, that the dip we apparently witnessed was a temporary tumbleweed reaction to the sleaze onslaught.

    Such temporary highs and lows do occur.

    We know for example that there can be conference bounces of a similar amount to the sleaze drop: 4 or 5%.

    What really counts is whether it sticks. Everything we are hearing on the ground seems to concur with a Cons poll lead of generous proportions. 9% would not be surprising.
    I kind of agree - I think a lot of people were genuinerly shocked by a tide of sleaze reports a couple of weeks ago, butit's faded into the background for now, and a Tory recovery would be a natural consequence. That said, I think it's left its mark - people will be less willing to give the Tories the benefit of the doubt when more stories surface - these things accumulate over time.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,264
    Tweaked Moderna vaccine ‘neutralises Covid variants in trials’
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Is this Jersey stuff just needless posturing from the French

    One suspects that Macron is trying to give Boris a wee boost on Scots/Welsh/local election eve. Subtle, but he IS a Frenchman, n'est-ce pas?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    My thanks to Prime Minister @BorisJohnson for his support and reassurances during our discussion this evening. We will continue to work closely with the UK Government in order to resolve the current challenges diplomatically and avoid any unnecessary escalation

    https://twitter.com/Ian_Gorst/status/1390021130338058240?s=20
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,476
    I wonder what the ghost of Jim Hacker is making of tonight’s events?

    ‘It doesn’t have to be the Russians. It could be the Fr...the frigging Chinese.’
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,962
    edited May 2021

    Is this Jersey stuff just needless posturing from the French

    One suspects that Macron is trying to give Boris a wee boost on Scots/Welsh/local election eve. Subtle, but he IS a Frenchman, n'est-ce pas?
    He'll be a shoo-in for a GCMG for services to CCHQ when he retires.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Just wanted to thank the poster who hi - lighted the latest Joe Rogan podcast - very interesting.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,239
    Scott_xP said:

    Nonsense - absolutely correct course of action

    Beyond parody...
    You are so sad
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,613

    My current opinion, which I have articulated before, and which is shared by a few on here, is that Labour cannot win an election as the land currently lies. Even with a different leader. They have to wait until the Conservative Party and 'Brexit' stop being all things to all people and they start pissing people off, be it their new northern strongholds or their traditional rural seats.

    It will happen eventually and Labour itself may not benefit, a new party might.

    LAB back in it 2029. No chance 2024. by 2029 everyone will be bored with CON. no-one has won 6 GEs in a row.
    The worry for Lab has to be the Cons' ability to reinvite themselves. Arguably we have had 4 Con governments rather than one:

    Coalition - 5 years
    Cameron only - 1 year
    May - 3 years
    Boris - 2 years

    The fact that May came in and sacked most of Cammo's ministers, and then Boris came in and sacked most of May's ministers has kept it fresh.
    Yes. So the question is where it goes next, after Johnson. A tack back to the centre, or a step further out to the far reaches?

    This is where the purge of anti-no-deal MPs by Johnson could have further long-term consequences.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I see Biden is backing patent repeal for Covid vaccines for the developing world.

    An astonishingly bold step.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,264

    I had a feeling, and mentioned as much, that the dip we apparently witnessed was a temporary tumbleweed reaction to the sleaze onslaught.

    Such temporary highs and lows do occur.

    We know for example that there can be conference bounces of a similar amount to the sleaze drop: 4 or 5%.

    What really counts is whether it sticks. Everything we are hearing on the ground seems to concur with a Cons poll lead of generous proportions. 9% would not be surprising.
    I kind of agree - I think a lot of people were genuinerly shocked by a tide of sleaze reports a couple of weeks ago, butit's faded into the background for now, and a Tory recovery would be a natural consequence. That said, I think it's left its mark - people will be less willing to give the Tories the benefit of the doubt when more stories surface - these things accumulate over time.
    It may also be because issues of who paid for somebodies cushions when 10,000s of people per day are dying horrific deaths in India rather focuses the mind on what is really important at the moment and the fact we are all getting vaccinated here.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Now the top story on BBC

    BBC News - UK sends Royal Navy to patrol Jersey port amid fishing row
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57003069

    This is a deliberately engineered argument to reinforce Brexit voters to remember a) Boris got us out and b) that the perfidious French are the enemy....
    CCHQ controls Norman & Breton fishermen?

    Impressive!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,696

    My current opinion, which I have articulated before, and which is shared by a few on here, is that Labour cannot win an election as the land currently lies. Even with a different leader. They have to wait until the Conservative Party and 'Brexit' stop being all things to all people and they start pissing people off, be it their new northern strongholds or their traditional rural seats.

    It will happen eventually and Labour itself may not benefit, a new party might.

    LAB back in it 2029. No chance 2024. by 2029 everyone will be bored with CON. no-one has won 6 GEs in a row.
    The worry for Lab has to be the Cons' ability to reinvite themselves. Arguably we have had 4 Con governments rather than one:

    Coalition - 5 years
    Cameron only - 1 year
    May - 3 years
    Boris - 2 years

    The fact that May came in and sacked most of Cammo's ministers, and then Boris came in and sacked most of May's ministers has kept it fresh.

    The wholesale destruction of one part of the Coalition in 2015 WAS a drastic change of Government.

    Cameron losing the Referendum and walking away from power in 2016 WAS a drastic change of Government.

    May losing an election and having to buy off the DUP to stay in Downing Street in 2017 WAS a drastic change of Government.

    May to Boris - and the termination of the Remainer cabal - in 2019 WAS a drastic change of Government.

    8 years off Boris would seem like an extraordinary period of solidity by recent standards.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    Brom said:

    gealbhan said:

    Brom said:

    I had a feeling, and mentioned as much, that the dip we apparently witnessed was a temporary tumbleweed reaction to the sleaze onslaught.

    Such temporary highs and lows do occur.

    We know for example that there can be conference bounces of a similar amount to the sleaze drop: 4 or 5%.

    What really counts is whether it sticks. Everything we are hearing on the ground seems to concur with a Cons poll lead of generous proportions. 9% would not be surprising.
    Correct. The 1 point lead polls are most likely bunkum. Usually you get a feel about where we stand and looking at polls in general, constituency polling and the public response it really doesn’t feel neck and neck.

    Brom said:

    I had a feeling, and mentioned as much, that the dip we apparently witnessed was a temporary tumbleweed reaction to the sleaze onslaught.

    Such temporary highs and lows do occur.

    We know for example that there can be conference bounces of a similar amount to the sleaze drop: 4 or 5%.

    What really counts is whether it sticks. Everything we are hearing on the ground seems to concur with a Cons poll lead of generous proportions. 9% would not be surprising.
    Correct. The 1 point lead polls are most likely bunkum. Usually you get a feel about where we stand and looking at polls in general, constituency polling and the public response it really doesn’t feel neck and neck.

    That’s funny. Because it does with me. 🧐

    Labour no longer “feel” rubbish and controversial as much as Boris and his government does. It does feel closer than some of the very big poll margins.

    Closer than the big ones, if pushed Id say the 6 point average is about right. But I’m confident the Tories are on 40 points upwards but I can’t see Starmer on similar. Of course if Labour are it bodes very well for them because I think they have plenty of room for improvement.
    I totally agree, it’s less about the gap than vote shares. As you say 40 and 36 would be spun as Labour starting the road back. And spun as good result for Boris as government. It could be one of those where both Tory and Labour are winners.

    But it’s first set of votes for a while without ‘labour being toxic as part of the equation. Because they don’t feel like that anymore?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,179
    edited May 2021

    gealbhan said:

    Brom said:

    I had a feeling, and mentioned as much, that the dip we apparently witnessed was a temporary tumbleweed reaction to the sleaze onslaught.

    Such temporary highs and lows do occur.

    We know for example that there can be conference bounces of a similar amount to the sleaze drop: 4 or 5%.

    What really counts is whether it sticks. Everything we are hearing on the ground seems to concur with a Cons poll lead of generous proportions. 9% would not be surprising.
    Correct. The 1 point lead polls are most likely bunkum. Usually you get a feel about where we stand and looking at polls in general, constituency polling and the public response it really doesn’t feel neck and neck.

    Brom said:

    I had a feeling, and mentioned as much, that the dip we apparently witnessed was a temporary tumbleweed reaction to the sleaze onslaught.

    Such temporary highs and lows do occur.

    We know for example that there can be conference bounces of a similar amount to the sleaze drop: 4 or 5%.

    What really counts is whether it sticks. Everything we are hearing on the ground seems to concur with a Cons poll lead of generous proportions. 9% would not be surprising.
    Correct. The 1 point lead polls are most likely bunkum. Usually you get a feel about where we stand and looking at polls in general, constituency polling and the public response it really doesn’t feel neck and neck.

    That’s funny. Because it does with me. 🧐

    Labour no longer “feel” rubbish and controversial as much as Boris and his government does. It does feel closer than some of the very big poll margins.
    For what it's worth, Labour phone canvassing down here in Surrey has been the best for years, entirely in a seat we didn't even contest 4 years ago (due to an abortive deal with the LDs). So maybe some of that peculiar mismatch between national polling and local polling is explained by a Labour surge in the south. Which won't win us a Parliamentary seat here, but will help if replicated in several nearby marginals.
    Could well be part of the "Londoners moving out of London" trend.

    It will be ironic if a Labour voting London and the South East ends up paying the taxes to support public services in a Tory voting Midlands and North!

    gealbhan said:

    Brom said:

    I had a feeling, and mentioned as much, that the dip we apparently witnessed was a temporary tumbleweed reaction to the sleaze onslaught.

    Such temporary highs and lows do occur.

    We know for example that there can be conference bounces of a similar amount to the sleaze drop: 4 or 5%.

    What really counts is whether it sticks. Everything we are hearing on the ground seems to concur with a Cons poll lead of generous proportions. 9% would not be surprising.
    Correct. The 1 point lead polls are most likely bunkum. Usually you get a feel about where we stand and looking at polls in general, constituency polling and the public response it really doesn’t feel neck and neck.

    Brom said:

    I had a feeling, and mentioned as much, that the dip we apparently witnessed was a temporary tumbleweed reaction to the sleaze onslaught.

    Such temporary highs and lows do occur.

    We know for example that there can be conference bounces of a similar amount to the sleaze drop: 4 or 5%.

    What really counts is whether it sticks. Everything we are hearing on the ground seems to concur with a Cons poll lead of generous proportions. 9% would not be surprising.
    Correct. The 1 point lead polls are most likely bunkum. Usually you get a feel about where we stand and looking at polls in general, constituency polling and the public response it really doesn’t feel neck and neck.

    That’s funny. Because it does with me. 🧐

    Labour no longer “feel” rubbish and controversial as much as Boris and his government does. It does feel closer than some of the very big poll margins.
    For what it's worth, Labour phone canvassing down here in Surrey has been the best for years, entirely in a seat we didn't even contest 4 years ago (due to an abortive deal with the LDs). So maybe some of that peculiar mismatch between national polling and local polling is explained by a Labour surge in the south. Which won't win us a Parliamentary seat here, but will help if replicated in several nearby marginals.
    Could well be part of the "Londoners moving out of London" trend.

    It will be ironic if a Labour voting London and the South East ends up paying the taxes to support public services in a Tory voting Midlands and North!

    Another reason we may be going down a US road. New York and San Francisco pay for Mississipi, who largely hate them. Even more people in the South are now going to benefit from Biden's infrastructure projects, because many of the coastal Americans who voted for BIden, who Fox told the heartland are their enemy, actually want them to.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,264
    I see Harvard have said only fully vaccinated individuals can become students on campus. Wonder if we will see it here?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,755
    Scott_xP said:

    Nonsense - absolutely correct course of action

    Beyond parody...
    “Hmm, the Cognitive dissonance force is strong with this one”
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,476
    Alistair said:

    I see Biden is backing patent repeal for Covid vaccines for the developing world.

    An astonishingly bold step.

    Pharma won’t like that. They’ll be worried in case he applies it to the USA.

    So it’s clearly a very good idea.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Alistair said:

    I see Biden is backing patent repeal for Covid vaccines for the developing world.

    An astonishingly bold step.

    I'm sure he'll be thrilled when China is giving away Pfizer/BionTech vaccines...
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Re: the Estonian submarine EMS Lembit, isn't it touching that they decided to give Lembit Öpik ex-MP such a moving tribute?

    No doubt in furtherance of Estonian-Welsh amity.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    Now the top story on BBC

    BBC News - UK sends Royal Navy to patrol Jersey port amid fishing row
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57003069

    This is a deliberately engineered argument to reinforce Brexit voters to remember a) Boris got us out and b) that the perfidious French are the enemy....
    It just reminds voters that the endless antagonism that was doing their heads in does not go away with Brexit, just gets more ugly, dangerous, and multiplies the things that’s going to be squabbled over in coming years.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    NEW THREAD
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    Scott_xP said:

    Brexiteers telling the French to tone down their rhetoric...

    Latest guidance is Dominic Raab has spoken to his French counterpart to demand Paris tone down their rhetoric.

    Trade Minister Greg Hands was also speaking to ministers on the other side of the Channel in a bid to calm growing tension.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1390034418992025600

    Beyond parody

    We’re not the ones threatening blockages or power outages though..
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,031
    Bashing foreigners for being annoying & insensitive to your needs is a) usually popular & b) usually a waste of time & money because a) is true for them too. Avoiding the trap of it being a smart political move is usually beneficial, but we chose not to live in that world

    https://twitter.com/hopisen/status/1390037733100425221
  • CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421

    My current opinion, which I have articulated before, and which is shared by a few on here, is that Labour cannot win an election as the land currently lies. Even with a different leader. They have to wait until the Conservative Party and 'Brexit' stop being all things to all people and they start pissing people off, be it their new northern strongholds or their traditional rural seats.

    It will happen eventually and Labour itself may not benefit, a new party might.

    LAB back in it 2029. No chance 2024. by 2029 everyone will be bored with CON. no-one has won 6 GEs in a row.
    The worry for Lab has to be the Cons' ability to reinvite themselves. Arguably we have had 4 Con governments rather than one:

    Coalition - 5 years
    Cameron only - 1 year
    May - 3 years
    Boris - 2 years

    The fact that May came in and sacked most of Cammo's ministers, and then Boris came in and sacked most of May's ministers has kept it fresh.
    It shows the astonishing depth of talent in the Conservative parliamentary party (no laughing at the back, i'm serious). Not only at cabinet level (with the odd exception), theres a lot of talent at the junior minister level.

    The labour parliamentary party front team is embarrassing. There hasnt been a good front team since the GE loss of 2010. This took a nosedive even further in 2015 with Corbyn.

    Now with Starmer, is there a single member of the shadow cabinet that could do the job better than the actual cabinet member they are opposing? And it gets even worse, drop down out of the shadow cabinet for the next generation.
    I'm not sure if it's because of positive discrimination, or just bad luck. But strip out a few of the mid level performers of Labour's time in office like Cooper and Benn who are happy to earn pennies chairing select committees, and you are left with a caucus of mediocrity and obscure identity led fanaticism.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,081

    <<Could well be part of the "Londoners moving out of London" trend.

    It will be ironic if a Labour voting London and the South East ends up paying the taxes to support public services in a Tory voting Midlands and North!>>

    It would be ironic, except that the Conservatives are taxing and spending almost as enthusiastically as Starmer would. There is no low-tax small-state alternative for economic liberals in this country at the moment.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,765

    NEW THREAD

  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,179
    edited May 2021
    Fishing said:

    <<Could well be part of the "Londoners moving out of London" trend.

    It will be ironic if a Labour voting London and the South East ends up paying the taxes to support public services in a Tory voting Midlands and North!>>

    It would be ironic, except that the Conservatives are taxing and spending almost as enthusiastically as Starmer would. There is no low-tax small-state alternative for economic liberals in this country at the moment.
    This is partly because we're still coming out of a global pandemic, in a situation where that may be unwise, and partly also because borrowing costs are historically low.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047

    Now the top story on BBC

    BBC News - UK sends Royal Navy to patrol Jersey port amid fishing row
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57003069

    What about an Aircraft Carrier or two for a sense of proportion.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,727
    AlistairM said:

    I can't imagine we as a country would ever threaten to cut off power supplies over fish. The French show again what they are truly like.

    They're terrified of Le Pen. So no gesture is too ridiculous
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,913

    Now the top story on BBC

    BBC News - UK sends Royal Navy to patrol Jersey port amid fishing row
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57003069

    Whatever the whys and wherefores both of Brexit and the absurd constitutional position of the Bailiwick of Jersey, I don't see that the navy has any other choice than to deploy. Its defence is our responsibility.
  • BournvilleBournville Posts: 309
    I think we are entering a new period of Conservative Party dominance.

    A good parallel to draw is with Japan. Japan is what we would probably a 'flawed' democracy, but this didn't happen by accident. To oversimplify, Japan's political culture sees politicians as bureaucrats and managers rather than ideologues or statesmen, elections as performance reviews rather than a genuine consideration of future pledges, and a small degree of 'corruption'/'collaboration between state and private sector' as a necessary evil. The dominance of the Liberal Democrats in Japan therefore becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. Their politicians are seen as effective bureaucrats and managers - because they're already managing the bureaucracy. Their politicians can claim to have performed well in the role in election campaigns - because they're the only ones given a chance to perform. Their politicians can successfully normalise close relations between business and government - because they're the ones in power and they determine what 'normal' is. If you're competent, ambitious and want a political career in Japan, you join the Liberal Democrats, because that's the only way to get ahead.

    Returning to the UK, I think we have moved away from the post-1945 'retail politics' model, where elections were fought on the grounds of the manifesto commitments of the main parties. The Conservatives have grasped that the electorate has Japanified. They're not pitching themselves as ideological anymore, they're saying they are effective: that they get things DONE.

    A lot of commentators misunderstand the slogan 'get Brexit done' from 2019. It's not necessarily saying 'get BREXIT done', it's saying 'get Brexit DONE'. Johnson knows that he can get away with being seen as corrupt by people who will never vote for him, as long as the people who might believe he is effective and can deliver results. He also knows he doesn't have to actually deliver those results himself, he just needs to lead the team that does. The electorate doesn't want politicians who give pretty speeches any more, they want politicians who can stand behind a lectern and explain what their Government has achieved in five hundred words or less. The Conservatives are also beginning to attract people who might have done well in other parties in the past, but now see the Conservatives as the only realistic way to achieve their ambitions. To give one example, Andy Street would probably have been a great fit for Blair's Labour Party, but instead he's running as a *Conservative* in the *West Midlands* and *winning*.

    And Labour - bereft of talent, bereft of the opportunity for their candidates to demostrate to the electorate that they are effective managers (outside of a few urban strongholds) don't have the chance to compete. As time goes on, the problems will get worse. Labour won't be able to attract candidates like Street, who win in Conservative strongholds, or prove they can be trusted in higher office, for a while.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,347
    Oh no, Chelsea are in the Champions League final. Nobody wants to see that.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Alistair said:

    I see Biden is backing patent repeal for Covid vaccines for the developing world.

    An astonishingly bold step.

    Not really - done decades ago for ARVs
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,994
    dr_spyn said:

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    rpjs said:

    rpjs said:

    Leon said:

    Wait, there could be WAR WITH FRANCE

    "French fishers threaten to blockade Jersey ports as row escalates"



    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/may/05/jersey-french-threat-cut-electricity-post-brexit-licences-boats

    Calling Rear-Adm HYUFD to get HMS Epping Forest out of dry-dock!
    HMS Victory could be pressed back into service, with a bit of refurbishment. A Johnson administration speciality IIRC.
    HMS Victory never left service. She is still under commission and is the flagship of the First Sea Lord.
    If HMS Victory ever left service it would just be moved from Portsmouth to Chatham (where it was originally built).
    Used to see the USS Missouri docked at Bremerton Navy Yard whenever I had occasion to take the ferry there from Seattle.

    Until Honolulu stole it from us, that is.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Missouri_(BB-63)
    I keep on meaning to go and see - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huáscar_(ironclad)

    The amount of history in that one ship....

    First ship attacked with a torpedo in anger (it missed), incidentally.
    Ooh. Looks interesting.

    The Aurora in St Petersburg is another rare surviving pre dreadnought ship.
    Last protected cruiser, isn't it.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_battleship_Mikasa

    would also be interesting

    https://www.bonhams.com/auctions/10753/lot/74/

    Old Paks definitely impressed the Japanese
    Greek cruiser Georgios Averof is another pre-1914 warship which can be visited.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_cruiser_Georgios_Averof

    I was impressed by Estonia's Seaplane Harbour Museum which includes EML Lembit, a minelaying submarine built in Barrow.
    Although this one is a bit more basic

This discussion has been closed.