Speaking of HMS Victory, yours truly just remembered, that I have a large, beautifully framed, VERY nice color print of "The Last Voyage of 'Victory' 1922" by Robert Dunthorne and Son, handing in my hall. Dedicated to Lord Beatty, Admiral of the Fleet, etc, etc.
That is, the 4' x 6' feet foyer to my humble apartment. Got it at local thrift shop here in Seattle.
When I bought my first flat, off the estate of an elderly female Czech refugee it came with all the contents, including crockery and the pictures on the wall. One was an original photo of the German High Seas Fleet on the day they surrendered at Scapa Flow, and scuppered the next day.
Slightly odd for an old Czech Lady, I thought. My brother kept it.
Maybe she liked seeing the German navy going blub-blub-blub?
She came to England in 1938, so a love of Germany unlikely, but the Fleet was at anchor in the picture. Czechia not a country known for its naval prowress either!
One possibility (purely speculative without any evidence) is that she had some family connection with the German Navy, that she (maybe) was NOT ethnic Czech but a German who fled to Czechoslovakia (temporarily) after 1933. Plenty of folks did just that.
My main issue with voting Tory this Thursday in the locals is that the literature is soaking wet: all climate change, "building back better", "bridging the gap", NHS signalling, and vacuous crap like that.
Nothing about tax or business or economics or strategic infrastructure or war with France or anything solid like that.
It's boring my mammary glands off and pushing precisely zero buttons for me.
So what you'd like is for the Tories to pledge to raise taxes in order to build back better defence infrastructure in preparation for war with France?
Probably need a bit more cash for the NHS as well, for the war casualties.
I would be happy for any party to express concerns about the government deficit, low interest rates and high house price inflation.
Financial sanity has never been so unfashionable.
I sometimes forget that you and I share at least one thing in common.
Quite so.
While it is quite common for one party to be spendthrift, at the moment all of them are promising to spend like drunken sailors. Every single one of them.
Of course they are. Because all the evidence is that spending like drunken sailors makes you popular.
And it is, until shortly after the money runs out.
Well yes.
We've been in this great world where you could spend without inflation.
That great quarter century period (1995 to 2020) is coming to an end. Inflation will return, and it will absolutely kill some people. If you have lots of floating rate debt, especially if combined with fixed incomings (if you're a landlord, basically), then you will get absolutely killed.
Some people who overlevered themselves, are also going to get massacred.
Fiscal rectitude will - eventually - return. But it's going to be a wild ride.
@Steven_Swinford "Boris Johnson is send has sent two Royal Navy offshore patrol vessels to Jersey amid concerns over the threat of a blockade by French fishermen
The PM and Jersey Chief Minister have agreed the move as a 'precautionary measure'"
I had a feeling, and mentioned as much, that the dip we apparently witnessed was a temporary tumbleweed reaction to the sleaze onslaught.
Such temporary highs and lows do occur.
We know for example that there can be conference bounces of a similar amount to the sleaze drop: 4 or 5%.
What really counts is whether it sticks. Everything we are hearing on the ground seems to concur with a Cons poll lead of generous proportions. 9% would not be surprising.
Still no recent exceptions in the polls to them clustering around Tory 42 Lab 36, and consistent with no other figure (Tory range 39-45, last one outside the range was in January; Lab range 32-39 (two outside the range since January, one above, one below)
It looked as if it may have been shifting a bit closer, but unless this one is an outlier it looks like it isn't.
@Steven_Swinford "Boris Johnson is send has sent two Royal Navy offshore patrol vessels to Jersey amid concerns over the threat of a blockade by French fishermen
The PM and Jersey Chief Minister have agreed the move as a 'precautionary measure'"
Oh well if that makes tomorrow's front pages that should add another few % for the tories. Nothing like our PM standing up against those horrible Froggies and all that.
My main issue with voting Tory this Thursday in the locals is that the literature is soaking wet: all climate change, "building back better", "bridging the gap", NHS signalling, and vacuous crap like that.
Nothing about tax or business or economics or strategic infrastructure or war with France or anything solid like that.
It's boring my mammary glands off and pushing precisely zero buttons for me.
So what you'd like is for the Tories to pledge to raise taxes in order to build back better defence infrastructure in preparation for war with France?
Probably need a bit more cash for the NHS as well, for the war casualties.
I would be happy for any party to express concerns about the government deficit, low interest rates and high house price inflation.
Financial sanity has never been so unfashionable.
I sometimes forget that you and I share at least one thing in common.
Quite so.
While it is quite common for one party to be spendthrift, at the moment all of them are promising to spend like drunken sailors. Every single one of them.
Of course they are. Because all the evidence is that spending like drunken sailors makes you popular.
And it is, until shortly after the money runs out.
The Tory Party under Boris is a card-carrying advocate of Modern Monetary Theory - aka spend money you don’t have for ever more safe in the knowledge that nothing bad will ever happen to you. They could be right: I mean, I thought MMT was madness, but in the post-pandemic world, where health is the only hard currency, who knows? If it works, it’s very hard to see a way back for Labour.
My main issue with voting Tory this Thursday in the locals is that the literature is soaking wet: all climate change, "building back better", "bridging the gap", NHS signalling, and vacuous crap like that.
Nothing about tax or business or economics or strategic infrastructure or war with France or anything solid like that.
It's boring my mammary glands off and pushing precisely zero buttons for me.
So what you'd like is for the Tories to pledge to raise taxes in order to build back better defence infrastructure in preparation for war with France?
Probably need a bit more cash for the NHS as well, for the war casualties.
I would be happy for any party to express concerns about the government deficit, low interest rates and high house price inflation.
Financial sanity has never been so unfashionable.
I sometimes forget that you and I share at least one thing in common.
Quite so.
While it is quite common for one party to be spendthrift, at the moment all of them are promising to spend like drunken sailors. Every single one of them.
Of course they are. Because all the evidence is that spending like drunken sailors makes you popular.
And it is, until shortly after the money runs out.
The Tory Party under Boris is a card-carrying advocate of Modern Monetary Theory - aka spend money you don’t have for ever more safe in the knowledge that nothing bad will ever happen to you. They could be right: I mean, I thought MMT was madness, but in the post-pandemic world, where health is the only hard currency, who knows? If it works, it’s very hard to see a way back for Labour.
Except it's not. Rishi set out plans to get the budget back to balance in the last Budget.
My main issue with voting Tory this Thursday in the locals is that the literature is soaking wet: all climate change, "building back better", "bridging the gap", NHS signalling, and vacuous crap like that.
Nothing about tax or business or economics or strategic infrastructure or war with France or anything solid like that.
It's boring my mammary glands off and pushing precisely zero buttons for me.
Honestly, I think we need someone like General Franco or Vladimir Putin ruling this country.
My main issue with voting Tory this Thursday in the locals is that the literature is soaking wet: all climate change, "building back better", "bridging the gap", NHS signalling, and vacuous crap like that.
Nothing about tax or business or economics or strategic infrastructure or war with France or anything solid like that.
It's boring my mammary glands off and pushing precisely zero buttons for me.
To be fair, when a few of us quizzed the rationale behind the extent of Sunak's largesse (no giggling in the cheap seats, please) last summer, we were told it was no problem because the Conservatives would just keep on borrowing (one of those films without Sid James or Kenneth Williams, I suspect).
When it was then asked how this debt would be serviced and who would pay for it in the longer term, we were patronisingly told not to worry our little heads about such trivialities during a global pandemic.
The question then becomes which of the two high-spending social democrat parties we should support.
Very serious point here. Labour seem to have no idea that the Tories have become old Labour in spending. northern priorities, not very interested in critical race theory but live and let live and all that, suspicious of Europe, not joining wars, NHS is our religion and all that, self reliance but don't actually let the poor starve. The only reason they aren't pro NUM and industrial unions is that they don't matter, and the ex miners all vote Tory
Labour are campaigning as if the Tories are a right wing party, and are confusing being a bit posh with grinding the faces of the poor.
The old Pidcock tendency of 'Tory vermin' and 'Never kissed a Tory' feel not only vote destroying in huge measure - Labour can't get support by hating the people it needs to switch (2.5 million roughly) - it feels quaintly old fashioned. Like the motto 'Kill the Bill' in the current round of leftish demos. Oh; they think it's clever and funny to make a post modern play on words about legislation and slaying coppers. How very 1970s. But at least they don't matter, they are only the fringe of loonies around the Labour left.
My main issue with voting Tory this Thursday in the locals is that the literature is soaking wet: all climate change, "building back better", "bridging the gap", NHS signalling, and vacuous crap like that.
Nothing about tax or business or economics or strategic infrastructure or war with France or anything solid like that.
It's boring my mammary glands off and pushing precisely zero buttons for me.
So what you'd like is for the Tories to pledge to raise taxes in order to build back better defence infrastructure in preparation for war with France?
Probably need a bit more cash for the NHS as well, for the war casualties.
I would be happy for any party to express concerns about the government deficit, low interest rates and high house price inflation.
Financial sanity has never been so unfashionable.
I sometimes forget that you and I share at least one thing in common.
Quite so.
While it is quite common for one party to be spendthrift, at the moment all of them are promising to spend like drunken sailors. Every single one of them.
Of course they are. Because all the evidence is that spending like drunken sailors makes you popular.
And it is, until shortly after the money runs out.
The Tory Party under Boris is a card-carrying advocate of Modern Monetary Theory - aka spend money you don’t have for ever more safe in the knowledge that nothing bad will ever happen to you. They could be right: I mean, I thought MMT was madness, but in the post-pandemic world, where health is the only hard currency, who knows? If it works, it’s very hard to see a way back for Labour.
Except it's not. Rishi set out plans to get the budget back to balance in the last Budget.
Not quite. Rishi is quoted to the 1922 talking about having to “appear” as though there’s a difference to Labour, or “what are we for”. Let’s be honest, even George Osborne and Hammond never managed to balance the budget in 9 years. They just pretended that they were trying to.
My main issue with voting Tory this Thursday in the locals is that the literature is soaking wet: all climate change, "building back better", "bridging the gap", NHS signalling, and vacuous crap like that.
Nothing about tax or business or economics or strategic infrastructure or war with France or anything solid like that.
It's boring my mammary glands off and pushing precisely zero buttons for me.
To be fair, when a few of us quizzed the rationale behind the extent of Sunak's largesse (no giggling in the cheap seats, please) last summer, we were told it was no problem because the Conservatives would just keep on borrowing (one of those films without Sid James or Kenneth Williams, I suspect).
When it was then asked how this debt would be serviced and who would pay for it in the longer term, we were patronisingly told not to worry our little heads about such trivialities during a global pandemic.
The question then becomes which of the two high-spending social democrat parties we should support.
Very serious point here. Labour seem to have no idea that the Tories have become old Labour in spending. northern priorities, not very interested in critical race theory but live and let live and all that, suspicious of Europe, not joining wars, NHS is our religion and all that, self reliance but don't actually let the poor starve. The only reason they aren't pro NUM and industrial unions is that they don't matter, and the ex miners all vote Tory
Labour are campaigning as if the Tories are a right wing party, and are confusing being a bit posh with grinding the faces of the poor.
The old Pidcock tendency of 'Tory vermin' and 'Never kissed a Tory' feel not only vote destroying in huge measure - Labour can't get support by hating the people it needs to switch (2.5 million roughly) - it feels quaintly old fashioned. Like the motto 'Kill the Bill' in the current round of leftish demos. Oh; they think it's clever and funny to make a post modern play on words about legislation and slaying coppers. How very 1970s. But at least they don't matter, they are only the fringe of loonies around the Labour left.
You've hit the nail on the head, but not in the way you think.
If the Tories have become old Labour in spending, northern priorities, not very interested in critical race theory but live and let live and all that, suspicious of Europe, not joining wars, NHS is our religion and all that, self reliance but don't actually let the poor starve, etc, then you risk losing their heartlands. Will the home counties vote for the "Labour of old" in the long term just because it's branded "the Conservative Party"?
@Steven_Swinford "Boris Johnson is send has sent two Royal Navy offshore patrol vessels to Jersey amid concerns over the threat of a blockade by French fishermen
The PM and Jersey Chief Minister have agreed the move as a 'precautionary measure'"
Hopefully the French boats have glass bottoms so they can see the last French fleet that tried to subdue Jersey. Might give them pause.
@algarkirk you'll also notice that Labour is currently in the hands of the Metropolitan Lib-demmy elite rather than the old Pidcock tendency, and I think it will continue in that direction.
I don't think the Lib Dems can survive at the end of the current realignment, to be honest.
Generally the GE polls are steady but lots of variation within the margin for error - very little evidence of movement.
Scottish polls are generally giving the same story: Independence supporters will win on seats; unionists v independence: too close to call on vote share; Vote if there were Ref2: too close to call. It's mostly pretty consistent.
Talking of Tory literature in the red wall here the literature is interesting. We have two candidates. One of whom is a councillor here. The literature only mentions him and it is all very local about what he has done to help spruce the area up, some of the initiatives he has delivered or helped deliver or are being delivered and potholes. No reference to Boris or the national party at all. I think he has a good chance of getting back in too along with the independent candidate.
I should add, I'd vote Andy Street or Ben Houchen so hard I'd put a hole in my ballot paper. Because, you know, they actually do stuff - and they're good on regeneration, civic pride and tax.
I think Hampshire County Council is a wet as a fish's wet bits - you're basically voting for a bunch of Clarkites, Soubry's and Amber Rudd's - and Roy Perry's long imperial reign has much to do with that.
HCC could do worse than being turned out wholesale for the LDs for one term. Just so they dry out and get some sense put back in them.
Houchen. The bloke who took an airport into the public sector. Just like the Labour government in Wales.
The only difference is that Teesside Airport doesn't have any flights.
My main issue with voting Tory this Thursday in the locals is that the literature is soaking wet: all climate change, "building back better", "bridging the gap", NHS signalling, and vacuous crap like that.
Nothing about tax or business or economics or strategic infrastructure or war with France or anything solid like that.
It's boring my mammary glands off and pushing precisely zero buttons for me.
To be fair, when a few of us quizzed the rationale behind the extent of Sunak's largesse (no giggling in the cheap seats, please) last summer, we were told it was no problem because the Conservatives would just keep on borrowing (one of those films without Sid James or Kenneth Williams, I suspect).
When it was then asked how this debt would be serviced and who would pay for it in the longer term, we were patronisingly told not to worry our little heads about such trivialities during a global pandemic.
The question then becomes which of the two high-spending social democrat parties we should support.
Very serious point here. Labour seem to have no idea that the Tories have become old Labour in spending. northern priorities, not very interested in critical race theory but live and let live and all that, suspicious of Europe, not joining wars, NHS is our religion and all that, self reliance but don't actually let the poor starve. The only reason they aren't pro NUM and industrial unions is that they don't matter, and the ex miners all vote Tory
Labour are campaigning as if the Tories are a right wing party, and are confusing being a bit posh with grinding the faces of the poor.
The old Pidcock tendency of 'Tory vermin' and 'Never kissed a Tory' feel not only vote destroying in huge measure - Labour can't get support by hating the people it needs to switch (2.5 million roughly) - it feels quaintly old fashioned. Like the motto 'Kill the Bill' in the current round of leftish demos. Oh; they think it's clever and funny to make a post modern play on words about legislation and slaying coppers. How very 1970s. But at least they don't matter, they are only the fringe of loonies around the Labour left.
You've hit the nail on the head, but not in the way you think.
If the Tories have become old Labour in spending, northern priorities, not very interested in critical race theory but live and let live and all that, suspicious of Europe, not joining wars, NHS is our religion and all that, self reliance but don't actually let the poor starve, etc, then you risk losing their heartlands. Will the home counties vote for the "Labour of old" in the long term just because it's branded "the Conservative Party"?
Is this Jersey stuff just needless posturing from the French
It all needs to be seen through the prism of a short man with a fetish for older women trying to prove how hard he is to retain power. People have called him a French Trump. In a lot of ways his psyche is like a French Putin. Just how low can France go with their presidents?
My main issue with voting Tory this Thursday in the locals is that the literature is soaking wet: all climate change, "building back better", "bridging the gap", NHS signalling, and vacuous crap like that.
Nothing about tax or business or economics or strategic infrastructure or war with France or anything solid like that.
It's boring my mammary glands off and pushing precisely zero buttons for me.
To be fair, when a few of us quizzed the rationale behind the extent of Sunak's largesse (no giggling in the cheap seats, please) last summer, we were told it was no problem because the Conservatives would just keep on borrowing (one of those films without Sid James or Kenneth Williams, I suspect).
When it was then asked how this debt would be serviced and who would pay for it in the longer term, we were patronisingly told not to worry our little heads about such trivialities during a global pandemic.
The question then becomes which of the two high-spending social democrat parties we should support.
Very serious point here. Labour seem to have no idea that the Tories have become old Labour in spending. northern priorities, not very interested in critical race theory but live and let live and all that, suspicious of Europe, not joining wars, NHS is our religion and all that, self reliance but don't actually let the poor starve. The only reason they aren't pro NUM and industrial unions is that they don't matter, and the ex miners all vote Tory
Labour are campaigning as if the Tories are a right wing party, and are confusing being a bit posh with grinding the faces of the poor.
The old Pidcock tendency of 'Tory vermin' and 'Never kissed a Tory' feel not only vote destroying in huge measure - Labour can't get support by hating the people it needs to switch (2.5 million roughly) - it feels quaintly old fashioned. Like the motto 'Kill the Bill' in the current round of leftish demos. Oh; they think it's clever and funny to make a post modern play on words about legislation and slaying coppers. How very 1970s. But at least they don't matter, they are only the fringe of loonies around the Labour left.
Yes, that is a large part of the problem. The other is that "red wall" towns are rapidly ageing, and simultaneously losing their young. This Hartlepool chart will need to be updated with the new census data, as age is such a determinate of voting it is going to get tougher still for Labour:
My main issue with voting Tory this Thursday in the locals is that the literature is soaking wet: all climate change, "building back better", "bridging the gap", NHS signalling, and vacuous crap like that.
Nothing about tax or business or economics or strategic infrastructure or war with France or anything solid like that.
It's boring my mammary glands off and pushing precisely zero buttons for me.
So what you'd like is for the Tories to pledge to raise taxes in order to build back better defence infrastructure in preparation for war with France?
Probably need a bit more cash for the NHS as well, for the war casualties.
I would be happy for any party to express concerns about the government deficit, low interest rates and high house price inflation.
Financial sanity has never been so unfashionable.
I sometimes forget that you and I share at least one thing in common.
Quite so.
While it is quite common for one party to be spendthrift, at the moment all of them are promising to spend like drunken sailors. Every single one of them.
Of course they are. Because all the evidence is that spending like drunken sailors makes you popular.
And it is, until shortly after the money runs out.
The Tory Party under Boris is a card-carrying advocate of Modern Monetary Theory - aka spend money you don’t have for ever more safe in the knowledge that nothing bad will ever happen to you. They could be right: I mean, I thought MMT was madness, but in the post-pandemic world, where health is the only hard currency, who knows? If it works, it’s very hard to see a way back for Labour.
Except it's not. Rishi set out plans to get the budget back to balance in the last Budget.
Not quite. Rishi is quoted to the 1922 talking about having to “appear” as though there’s a difference to Labour, or “what are we for”. Let’s be honest, even George Osborne and Hammond never managed to balance the budget in 9 years. They just pretended that they were trying to.
Except they did. Debt to GDP was falling going into this crisis. A deficit over £100bn was effectively eliminated in 9 years, without tanking the economy or going into a spiral as many other nations with a similar deficit did.
My main issue with voting Tory this Thursday in the locals is that the literature is soaking wet: all climate change, "building back better", "bridging the gap", NHS signalling, and vacuous crap like that.
Nothing about tax or business or economics or strategic infrastructure or war with France or anything solid like that.
It's boring my mammary glands off and pushing precisely zero buttons for me.
To be fair, when a few of us quizzed the rationale behind the extent of Sunak's largesse (no giggling in the cheap seats, please) last summer, we were told it was no problem because the Conservatives would just keep on borrowing (one of those films without Sid James or Kenneth Williams, I suspect).
When it was then asked how this debt would be serviced and who would pay for it in the longer term, we were patronisingly told not to worry our little heads about such trivialities during a global pandemic.
The question then becomes which of the two high-spending social democrat parties we should support.
Very serious point here. Labour seem to have no idea that the Tories have become old Labour in spending. northern priorities, not very interested in critical race theory but live and let live and all that, suspicious of Europe, not joining wars, NHS is our religion and all that, self reliance but don't actually let the poor starve. The only reason they aren't pro NUM and industrial unions is that they don't matter, and the ex miners all vote Tory
Labour are campaigning as if the Tories are a right wing party, and are confusing being a bit posh with grinding the faces of the poor.
The old Pidcock tendency of 'Tory vermin' and 'Never kissed a Tory' feel not only vote destroying in huge measure - Labour can't get support by hating the people it needs to switch (2.5 million roughly) - it feels quaintly old fashioned. Like the motto 'Kill the Bill' in the current round of leftish demos. Oh; they think it's clever and funny to make a post modern play on words about legislation and slaying coppers. How very 1970s. But at least they don't matter, they are only the fringe of loonies around the Labour left.
You've hit the nail on the head, but not in the way you think.
If the Tories have become old Labour in spending, northern priorities, not very interested in critical race theory but live and let live and all that, suspicious of Europe, not joining wars, NHS is our religion and all that, self reliance but don't actually let the poor starve, etc, then you risk losing their heartlands. Will the home counties vote for the "Labour of old" in the long term just because it's branded "the Conservative Party"?
Is this Jersey stuff just needless posturing from the French
It all needs to be seen through the prism of a short man with a fetish for older women trying to prove how hard he is to retain power. People have called him a French Trump. In a lot of ways his psyche is like a French Putin. Just how low can France go with their presidents?
Le Pen put out a video today as a tribute to Napoleon where she talks approvingly about how Napoleon's France contained Hamburg, Barcelona, Rome and Amsterdam.
Labour's route to power is the Joe Biden strategy, it is obvious.
Also, I am not predicting any results for tomorrow, I don't want egg on my face
The "Joe Biden" strategy doesn't work in the UK because of vote distribution and more than 2 parties. Even if there was enough votes, which is marginal, the Labour vote is now completely inefficient.
Is this Jersey stuff just needless posturing from the French
It all needs to be seen through the prism of a short man with a fetish for older women trying to prove how hard he is to retain power. People have called him a French Trump. In a lot of ways his psyche is like a French Putin. Just how low can France go with their presidents?
A short man who couldn't grow a beard so married one instead.
My main issue with voting Tory this Thursday in the locals is that the literature is soaking wet: all climate change, "building back better", "bridging the gap", NHS signalling, and vacuous crap like that.
Nothing about tax or business or economics or strategic infrastructure or war with France or anything solid like that.
It's boring my mammary glands off and pushing precisely zero buttons for me.
Honestly, I think we need someone like General Franco or Vladimir Putin ruling this country.
My main issue with voting Tory this Thursday in the locals is that the literature is soaking wet: all climate change, "building back better", "bridging the gap", NHS signalling, and vacuous crap like that.
Nothing about tax or business or economics or strategic infrastructure or war with France or anything solid like that.
It's boring my mammary glands off and pushing precisely zero buttons for me.
So what you'd like is for the Tories to pledge to raise taxes in order to build back better defence infrastructure in preparation for war with France?
Probably need a bit more cash for the NHS as well, for the war casualties.
I would be happy for any party to express concerns about the government deficit, low interest rates and high house price inflation.
Financial sanity has never been so unfashionable.
I sometimes forget that you and I share at least one thing in common.
Quite so.
While it is quite common for one party to be spendthrift, at the moment all of them are promising to spend like drunken sailors. Every single one of them.
Of course they are. Because all the evidence is that spending like drunken sailors makes you popular.
And it is, until shortly after the money runs out.
The Tory Party under Boris is a card-carrying advocate of Modern Monetary Theory - aka spend money you don’t have for ever more safe in the knowledge that nothing bad will ever happen to you. They could be right: I mean, I thought MMT was madness, but in the post-pandemic world, where health is the only hard currency, who knows? If it works, it’s very hard to see a way back for Labour.
Except it's not. Rishi set out plans to get the budget back to balance in the last Budget.
Not quite. Rishi is quoted to the 1922 talking about having to “appear” as though there’s a difference to Labour, or “what are we for”. Let’s be honest, even George Osborne and Hammond never managed to balance the budget in 9 years. They just pretended that they were trying to.
Except they did. Debt to GDP was falling going into this crisis. A deficit over £100bn was effectively eliminated in 9 years, without tanking the economy or going into a spiral as many other nations with a similar deficit did.
You choose your measures carefully. There remained a deficit at the end of the most spectacular boom run of anyone alive’s life. I don’t think Rishi has any intention whatsoever of running a balanced budget. If you don’t like it, there might be a candidate for you at the next Tory hustings. I doubt it though. It’s a policy for the economic history books, though may come back in fashion some time in the future once the alternative is tested to destruction.
I would like a patriotic Scot to explain to me what benefit there would be in holding another referendum just 7 years after the last very divisive referendum when all the polls indicate that Scotland is split down the middle and whilst we are attempting to recover from a health and economic disaster.
As a committed Unionist the case is very clear - the referendum in 2014 was fought, in part, on a falsehood, that only by voting No would Scotland remain in the EU.
There is therefore an understandable bitterness that the 2016 referendum has resulted in Scotland leaving the EU. Another referendum would be a chance to settle the question of whether that was sufficient for voters to choose Independence or renew the mandate for the Union in the new circumstances created by Brexit.
I don't think the English living in England get the fundamental self-determination question. Scotland has been dragged out of something it voted to not be dragged out of, it has caused economic damage and the government is saying tough. Whats then worse is that the government is saying that it has the legal right to do whatever it likes in and to Scotland and that the Scottish people have no ability to do anything about it.
The union - in the sense of being a union of equals and not an annexation like NI and Wales are - is dead. That is why there must be another referendum. Everything has changed since 2014. Literally everything.
I would prefer a new constitutional settlement to create a federation that is fit for the future. But as we aren't going to get that Scotland and NI and potentially Wales are going to get a divorce.
So there must be another referendum even if there isn't a clear majority who want one? Scots are being oppressed whether they realise it or not.
If people elect a majority of MSPs on a manifesto of independence that is the literal definition of wanting one. We have a representative democracy not one based on opinion polls or even national vote tallies in elections - all that counts is who gets elected.
If I vote SNP or Green or Alba tomorrow I vote for an independence referendum. It is explicit in their manifestos. I won't vote for them, but more of their MSPs will get elected than those opposed to independence. It is - to retread the Brexit line - the will of the people.
It is a reserved power. The UK government has every right to say you had a referendum just seven years ago. By your logic every time there is a majority for independent parties they should be allowed to hold another referendum. Leaving the EU may represent a substantial change but I still don't see the case for another referendum unless there is overwhelming support for it. It doesn't appear that there is.
Yes every time there's a majority for a party, that party gets to implement its manifesto. That's called democracy.
If the Scottish voters don't want that manifesto, they can elect a different party instead.
There is a way to tell if there is a "case for another referendum" or not, and that is whether those pledging one win a majority at an election or not.
So they are allowed "one referendum" per parliament? Or can they have one every two years? Every month?
What are the rules? There aren't any. Your pulling it your ass.
The power to approve referendums is reserved to Westminster for a reason, no state can withstand the constitutional and economic chaos of endless referendums threatening to break up the country - and plunging everyone - not just Scotland - into deep recession and a decade of bitter arguments.
It is commonly accepted that grave constitutional matters - and it doesn't get bigger than shattering the UK - should be addressed by very rare referendums. We had two EU votes in forty-odd years.
The rules are that elected governments decide what they're going to do, which they put to the voters at elections. If a government chooses to have two referenda in a Parliament I wouldn't support that if they didn't have that in their manifesto, but if they're the elected government that's their choice. If the voters don't like it, they should elect a different government.
As for "commonly accepted" it should be rare - by whom?
As for the example of having only two referenda on the EU in forty-odd years, many would argue (including me) that in hindsight that was a terrible, terrible mistake. Had we followed the Irish path of having a referendum every step of the way - on the Single European Act, Maastricht Treaty, Nice, Lisbon etc - then things might have gone better than letting it all boil until an explosive vote to terminate the union instead.
Yes, we should have had referendums at earlier stages of our EU membership, thus avoiding the eruption of Brexit
Yes, 40 years is too long to wait for a 2nd referendum, a generation is about right (as Nicola said) = 15-20 years
Quebec waited 15 years for its 2nd vote
Roll on Sindyref2 in about 2030?
I actually think that's roughly when it will happen. 2030
That's up to the Scottish voters. If the Scottish voters don't want a referendum they have the choice not to elect a government pledging one, it isn't difficult.
The Quebecois had another one when they elected a government pledging one.
The issue is you are saying that the only reason for voting SNP is you want a referendum. There could be good reasons for think they would be a better Scottish government than the alternatives and voting for them on that basis.
That is why in democracies parties put up manifestos. You don't get to vote for a party but say "I don't give them a mandate for this section of the manifesto". You either swallow it all, or you don't.
If voters are vehemently against a section of the manifesto they either vote for a different party, or swallow their pride.
I opposed David Cameron wanting to reduce net immigration to the tens of thousands, but I had to accept it was government policy since they won the election and I voted for the party.
Sure but equally you don’t get to argue it’s a decisive argument why we should ignore the law of the land.
Indeed, the law of the land is that we hold elections and that is how we resolve our differences. I respect that, because the alternative is that we resolve our differences with bullets or worse.
There's an election tomorrow. Lets see what results we get.
Sure. And Westminster can take that into account in deciding whether to issue a section 30 notice or not
Is this Jersey stuff just needless posturing from the French
It all needs to be seen through the prism of a short man with a fetish for older women trying to prove how hard he is to retain power. People have called him a French Trump. In a lot of ways his psyche is like a French Putin. Just how low can France go with their presidents?
A short man who couldn't grow a beard so married one instead.
All that is left for Manny is to ride a pony topless. He has become a joke. Will be fascinating to see what happens if he squeaks into the run off.
My current opinion, which I have articulated before, and which is shared by a few on here, is that Labour cannot win an election as the land currently lies. Even with a different leader. They have to wait until the Conservative Party and 'Brexit' stop being all things to all people and they start pissing people off, be it their new northern strongholds or their traditional rural seats.
It will happen eventually and Labour itself may not benefit, a new party might.
Generally the GE polls are steady but lots of variation within the margin for error - very little evidence of movement.
Scottish polls are generally giving the same story: Independence supporters will win on seats; unionists v independence: too close to call on vote share; Vote if there were Ref2: too close to call. It's mostly pretty consistent.
I had a feeling, and mentioned as much, that the dip we apparently witnessed was a temporary tumbleweed reaction to the sleaze onslaught.
Such temporary highs and lows do occur.
We know for example that there can be conference bounces of a similar amount to the sleaze drop: 4 or 5%.
What really counts is whether it sticks. Everything we are hearing on the ground seems to concur with a Cons poll lead of generous proportions. 9% would not be surprising.
Correct. The 1 point lead polls are most likely bunkum. Usually you get a feel about where we stand and looking at polls in general, constituency polling and the public response it really doesn’t feel neck and neck.
My main issue with voting Tory this Thursday in the locals is that the literature is soaking wet: all climate change, "building back better", "bridging the gap", NHS signalling, and vacuous crap like that.
Nothing about tax or business or economics or strategic infrastructure or war with France or anything solid like that.
It's boring my mammary glands off and pushing precisely zero buttons for me.
So what you'd like is for the Tories to pledge to raise taxes in order to build back better defence infrastructure in preparation for war with France?
Probably need a bit more cash for the NHS as well, for the war casualties.
I would be happy for any party to express concerns about the government deficit, low interest rates and high house price inflation.
Financial sanity has never been so unfashionable.
I sometimes forget that you and I share at least one thing in common.
Quite so.
While it is quite common for one party to be spendthrift, at the moment all of them are promising to spend like drunken sailors. Every single one of them.
Of course they are. Because all the evidence is that spending like drunken sailors makes you popular.
And it is, until shortly after the money runs out.
The Tory Party under Boris is a card-carrying advocate of Modern Monetary Theory - aka spend money you don’t have for ever more safe in the knowledge that nothing bad will ever happen to you. They could be right: I mean, I thought MMT was madness, but in the post-pandemic world, where health is the only hard currency, who knows? If it works, it’s very hard to see a way back for Labour.
Except it's not. Rishi set out plans to get the budget back to balance in the last Budget.
Not quite. Rishi is quoted to the 1922 talking about having to “appear” as though there’s a difference to Labour, or “what are we for”. Let’s be honest, even George Osborne and Hammond never managed to balance the budget in 9 years. They just pretended that they were trying to.
Indeed. The Tory Party under Boris borrows money at a rate that would make former Labour chancellors’ eyes water. That’s fair enough: as I say MMT is the new normal and possibly nothing bad will come of it, at least while the Tories remain in power. Funny old world.
My current opinion, which I have articulated before, and which is shared by a few on here, is that Labour cannot win an election as the land currently lies. Even with a different leader. They have to wait until the Conservative Party and 'Brexit' stop being all things to all people and they start pissing people off, be it their new northern strongholds or their traditional rural seats.
It will happen eventually and Labour itself may not benefit, a new party might.
My current opinion, which I have articulated before, and which is shared by a few on here, is that Labour cannot win an election as the land currently lies. Even with a different leader. They have to wait until the Conservative Party and 'Brexit' stop being all things to all people and they start pissing people off, be it their new northern strongholds or their traditional rural seats.
It will happen eventually and Labour itself may not benefit, a new party might.
LAB back in it 2029. No chance 2024. by 2029 everyone will be bored with CON. no-one has won 6 GEs in a row.
My main issue with voting Tory this Thursday in the locals is that the literature is soaking wet: all climate change, "building back better", "bridging the gap", NHS signalling, and vacuous crap like that.
Nothing about tax or business or economics or strategic infrastructure or war with France or anything solid like that.
It's boring my mammary glands off and pushing precisely zero buttons for me.
So what you'd like is for the Tories to pledge to raise taxes in order to build back better defence infrastructure in preparation for war with France?
Probably need a bit more cash for the NHS as well, for the war casualties.
I would be happy for any party to express concerns about the government deficit, low interest rates and high house price inflation.
Financial sanity has never been so unfashionable.
I sometimes forget that you and I share at least one thing in common.
Quite so.
While it is quite common for one party to be spendthrift, at the moment all of them are promising to spend like drunken sailors. Every single one of them.
Of course they are. Because all the evidence is that spending like drunken sailors makes you popular.
And it is, until shortly after the money runs out.
The Tory Party under Boris is a card-carrying advocate of Modern Monetary Theory - aka spend money you don’t have for ever more safe in the knowledge that nothing bad will ever happen to you. They could be right: I mean, I thought MMT was madness, but in the post-pandemic world, where health is the only hard currency, who knows? If it works, it’s very hard to see a way back for Labour.
Except it's not. Rishi set out plans to get the budget back to balance in the last Budget.
Not quite. Rishi is quoted to the 1922 talking about having to “appear” as though there’s a difference to Labour, or “what are we for”. Let’s be honest, even George Osborne and Hammond never managed to balance the budget in 9 years. They just pretended that they were trying to.
Indeed. The Tory Party under Boris borrows money at a rate that would make former Labour chancellors’ eyes water. That’s fair enough: as I say MMT is the new normal and possibly nothing bad will come of it, at least while the Tories remain in power. Funny old world.
My main issue with voting Tory this Thursday in the locals is that the literature is soaking wet: all climate change, "building back better", "bridging the gap", NHS signalling, and vacuous crap like that.
Nothing about tax or business or economics or strategic infrastructure or war with France or anything solid like that.
It's boring my mammary glands off and pushing precisely zero buttons for me.
To be fair, when a few of us quizzed the rationale behind the extent of Sunak's largesse (no giggling in the cheap seats, please) last summer, we were told it was no problem because the Conservatives would just keep on borrowing (one of those films without Sid James or Kenneth Williams, I suspect).
When it was then asked how this debt would be serviced and who would pay for it in the longer term, we were patronisingly told not to worry our little heads about such trivialities during a global pandemic.
The question then becomes which of the two high-spending social democrat parties we should support.
Very serious point here. Labour seem to have no idea that the Tories have become old Labour in spending. northern priorities, not very interested in critical race theory but live and let live and all that, suspicious of Europe, not joining wars, NHS is our religion and all that, self reliance but don't actually let the poor starve. The only reason they aren't pro NUM and industrial unions is that they don't matter, and the ex miners all vote Tory
Labour are campaigning as if the Tories are a right wing party, and are confusing being a bit posh with grinding the faces of the poor.
The old Pidcock tendency of 'Tory vermin' and 'Never kissed a Tory' feel not only vote destroying in huge measure - Labour can't get support by hating the people it needs to switch (2.5 million roughly) - it feels quaintly old fashioned. Like the motto 'Kill the Bill' in the current round of leftish demos. Oh; they think it's clever and funny to make a post modern play on words about legislation and slaying coppers. How very 1970s. But at least they don't matter, they are only the fringe of loonies around the Labour left.
You've hit the nail on the head, but not in the way you think.
If the Tories have become old Labour in spending, northern priorities, not very interested in critical race theory but live and let live and all that, suspicious of Europe, not joining wars, NHS is our religion and all that, self reliance but don't actually let the poor starve, etc, then you risk losing their heartlands. Will the home counties vote for the "Labour of old" in the long term just because it's branded "the Conservative Party"?
It's a delicate balance.
Indeed. Some buggers will have to pay eventually. If every billion spent on Teesside comes from the pockets of the Home Counties (and where else?) you can't expect the low tax voters down South to dutifully carry on being blue for long. Can you?
My main issue with voting Tory this Thursday in the locals is that the literature is soaking wet: all climate change, "building back better", "bridging the gap", NHS signalling, and vacuous crap like that.
Nothing about tax or business or economics or strategic infrastructure or war with France or anything solid like that.
It's boring my mammary glands off and pushing precisely zero buttons for me.
So what you'd like is for the Tories to pledge to raise taxes in order to build back better defence infrastructure in preparation for war with France?
Probably need a bit more cash for the NHS as well, for the war casualties.
I would be happy for any party to express concerns about the government deficit, low interest rates and high house price inflation.
Financial sanity has never been so unfashionable.
I sometimes forget that you and I share at least one thing in common.
Quite so.
While it is quite common for one party to be spendthrift, at the moment all of them are promising to spend like drunken sailors. Every single one of them.
Of course they are. Because all the evidence is that spending like drunken sailors makes you popular.
And it is, until shortly after the money runs out.
Well yes.
We've been in this great world where you could spend without inflation.
That great quarter century period (1995 to 2020) is coming to an end. Inflation will return, and it will absolutely kill some people. If you have lots of floating rate debt, especially if combined with fixed incomings (if you're a landlord, basically), then you will get absolutely killed.
Some people who overlevered themselves, are also going to get massacred.
Fiscal rectitude will - eventually - return. But it's going to be a wild ride.
I’ve positioned myself with real assets, fixed rate long-term debt and leveraged exposure to long-duration illiquid equities.
My main issue with voting Tory this Thursday in the locals is that the literature is soaking wet: all climate change, "building back better", "bridging the gap", NHS signalling, and vacuous crap like that.
Nothing about tax or business or economics or strategic infrastructure or war with France or anything solid like that.
It's boring my mammary glands off and pushing precisely zero buttons for me.
So what you'd like is for the Tories to pledge to raise taxes in order to build back better defence infrastructure in preparation for war with France?
Probably need a bit more cash for the NHS as well, for the war casualties.
I would be happy for any party to express concerns about the government deficit, low interest rates and high house price inflation.
Financial sanity has never been so unfashionable.
I sometimes forget that you and I share at least one thing in common.
Quite so.
While it is quite common for one party to be spendthrift, at the moment all of them are promising to spend like drunken sailors. Every single one of them.
Of course they are. Because all the evidence is that spending like drunken sailors makes you popular.
And it is, until shortly after the money runs out.
The Tory Party under Boris is a card-carrying advocate of Modern Monetary Theory - aka spend money you don’t have for ever more safe in the knowledge that nothing bad will ever happen to you. They could be right: I mean, I thought MMT was madness, but in the post-pandemic world, where health is the only hard currency, who knows? If it works, it’s very hard to see a way back for Labour.
Except it's not. Rishi set out plans to get the budget back to balance in the last Budget.
Not quite. Rishi is quoted to the 1922 talking about having to “appear” as though there’s a difference to Labour, or “what are we for”. Let’s be honest, even George Osborne and Hammond never managed to balance the budget in 9 years. They just pretended that they were trying to.
Indeed. The Tory Party under Boris borrows money at a rate that would make former Labour chancellors’ eyes water. That’s fair enough: as I say MMT is the new normal and possibly nothing bad will come of it, at least while the Tories remain in power. Funny old world.
The difficulty is that Labour us not a party that can win by pointing out that the Magic Money Tree is bare.
I had a feeling, and mentioned as much, that the dip we apparently witnessed was a temporary tumbleweed reaction to the sleaze onslaught.
Such temporary highs and lows do occur.
We know for example that there can be conference bounces of a similar amount to the sleaze drop: 4 or 5%.
What really counts is whether it sticks. Everything we are hearing on the ground seems to concur with a Cons poll lead of generous proportions. 9% would not be surprising.
Correct. The 1 point lead polls are most likely bunkum. Usually you get a feel about where we stand and looking at polls in general, constituency polling and the public response it really doesn’t feel neck and neck.
I had a feeling, and mentioned as much, that the dip we apparently witnessed was a temporary tumbleweed reaction to the sleaze onslaught.
Such temporary highs and lows do occur.
We know for example that there can be conference bounces of a similar amount to the sleaze drop: 4 or 5%.
What really counts is whether it sticks. Everything we are hearing on the ground seems to concur with a Cons poll lead of generous proportions. 9% would not be surprising.
Correct. The 1 point lead polls are most likely bunkum. Usually you get a feel about where we stand and looking at polls in general, constituency polling and the public response it really doesn’t feel neck and neck.
That’s funny. Because it does with me. 🧐
Labour no longer “feel” rubbish and controversial as much as Boris and his government does. It does feel closer than some of the very big poll margins.
My current opinion, which I have articulated before, and which is shared by a few on here, is that Labour cannot win an election as the land currently lies. Even with a different leader. They have to wait until the Conservative Party and 'Brexit' stop being all things to all people and they start pissing people off, be it their new northern strongholds or their traditional rural seats.
It will happen eventually and Labour itself may not benefit, a new party might.
Labour really is two or,three parties now.
Yes, you're right, but so is the Conservative Party — it's old Labour and the traditional Conservative Party. Tension will ultimately arise there as well.
@Steven_Swinford "Boris Johnson is send has sent two Royal Navy offshore patrol vessels to Jersey amid concerns over the threat of a blockade by French fishermen
The PM and Jersey Chief Minister have agreed the move as a 'precautionary measure'"
Things like this can escalate very quickly. What happens if France retaliates and an incident happens?
How are England going to fit Foden, Mount, Kane, Rashford, Sterling, Sancho and Grelish into the same team this summer?
Whichever way Southgate goes, I bet England still end up failing to make use of all thst talent.
The best team doesn't always require the best players, but it does require players that get the best out of each other.
Trying to shoehorn in star players with incompatible styles is part of the reason England falls flat so often.
We are blessed that in Foden, Mount and Grealish we now have 3 attacking players we didn’t really have 18 months ago who can arguably beat a man in a way Gerrard, Lampard and Rooney weren’t capable of. Unusual for England to have a stronger attack than defence so hopefully it forces Southgate into playing positively.
My main issue with voting Tory this Thursday in the locals is that the literature is soaking wet: all climate change, "building back better", "bridging the gap", NHS signalling, and vacuous crap like that.
Nothing about tax or business or economics or strategic infrastructure or war with France or anything solid like that.
It's boring my mammary glands off and pushing precisely zero buttons for me.
So what you'd like is for the Tories to pledge to raise taxes in order to build back better defence infrastructure in preparation for war with France?
Probably need a bit more cash for the NHS as well, for the war casualties.
I would be happy for any party to express concerns about the government deficit, low interest rates and high house price inflation.
Financial sanity has never been so unfashionable.
I sometimes forget that you and I share at least one thing in common.
Quite so.
While it is quite common for one party to be spendthrift, at the moment all of them are promising to spend like drunken sailors. Every single one of them.
Of course they are. Because all the evidence is that spending like drunken sailors makes you popular.
And it is, until shortly after the money runs out.
The Tory Party under Boris is a card-carrying advocate of Modern Monetary Theory - aka spend money you don’t have for ever more safe in the knowledge that nothing bad will ever happen to you. They could be right: I mean, I thought MMT was madness, but in the post-pandemic world, where health is the only hard currency, who knows? If it works, it’s very hard to see a way back for Labour.
Except it's not. Rishi set out plans to get the budget back to balance in the last Budget.
Not quite. Rishi is quoted to the 1922 talking about having to “appear” as though there’s a difference to Labour, or “what are we for”. Let’s be honest, even George Osborne and Hammond never managed to balance the budget in 9 years. They just pretended that they were trying to.
Indeed. The Tory Party under Boris borrows money at a rate that would make former Labour chancellors’ eyes water. That’s fair enough: as I say MMT is the new normal and possibly nothing bad will come of it, at least while the Tories remain in power. Funny old world.
The difficulty is that Labour us not a party that can win by pointing out that the Magic Money Tree is bare.
Modern Monetary Theory and yes, that’s my whole point.
I had a feeling, and mentioned as much, that the dip we apparently witnessed was a temporary tumbleweed reaction to the sleaze onslaught.
Such temporary highs and lows do occur.
We know for example that there can be conference bounces of a similar amount to the sleaze drop: 4 or 5%.
What really counts is whether it sticks. Everything we are hearing on the ground seems to concur with a Cons poll lead of generous proportions. 9% would not be surprising.
Correct. The 1 point lead polls are most likely bunkum. Usually you get a feel about where we stand and looking at polls in general, constituency polling and the public response it really doesn’t feel neck and neck.
I had a feeling, and mentioned as much, that the dip we apparently witnessed was a temporary tumbleweed reaction to the sleaze onslaught.
Such temporary highs and lows do occur.
We know for example that there can be conference bounces of a similar amount to the sleaze drop: 4 or 5%.
What really counts is whether it sticks. Everything we are hearing on the ground seems to concur with a Cons poll lead of generous proportions. 9% would not be surprising.
Correct. The 1 point lead polls are most likely bunkum. Usually you get a feel about where we stand and looking at polls in general, constituency polling and the public response it really doesn’t feel neck and neck.
That’s funny. Because it does with me. 🧐
Labour no longer “feel” rubbish and controversial as much as Boris and his government does. It does feel closer than some of the very big poll margins.
48 million are entitled to vote tomorrow and the verdict will be in by the weekend
How are England going to fit Foden, Mount, Kane, Rashford, Sterling, Sancho and Grelish into the same team this summer?
Whichever way Southgate goes, I bet England still end up failing to make use of all that talent.
The first three should start and play 90, depending on formation can squeeze in one of the others. Ideally would be Sancho/Grealish but both have had injuries so will probably be Sterling/Rashford.
My current opinion, which I have articulated before, and which is shared by a few on here, is that Labour cannot win an election as the land currently lies. Even with a different leader. They have to wait until the Conservative Party and 'Brexit' stop being all things to all people and they start pissing people off, be it their new northern strongholds or their traditional rural seats.
It will happen eventually and Labour itself may not benefit, a new party might.
LAB back in it 2029. No chance 2024. by 2029 everyone will be bored with CON. no-one has won 6 GEs in a row.
The worry for Lab has to be the Cons' ability to reinvite themselves. Arguably we have had 4 Con governments rather than one:
Coalition - 5 years Cameron only - 1 year May - 3 years Boris - 2 years
The fact that May came in and sacked most of Cammo's ministers, and then Boris came in and sacked most of May's ministers has kept it fresh.
I had a feeling, and mentioned as much, that the dip we apparently witnessed was a temporary tumbleweed reaction to the sleaze onslaught.
Such temporary highs and lows do occur.
We know for example that there can be conference bounces of a similar amount to the sleaze drop: 4 or 5%.
What really counts is whether it sticks. Everything we are hearing on the ground seems to concur with a Cons poll lead of generous proportions. 9% would not be surprising.
Correct. The 1 point lead polls are most likely bunkum. Usually you get a feel about where we stand and looking at polls in general, constituency polling and the public response it really doesn’t feel neck and neck.
I had a feeling, and mentioned as much, that the dip we apparently witnessed was a temporary tumbleweed reaction to the sleaze onslaught.
Such temporary highs and lows do occur.
We know for example that there can be conference bounces of a similar amount to the sleaze drop: 4 or 5%.
What really counts is whether it sticks. Everything we are hearing on the ground seems to concur with a Cons poll lead of generous proportions. 9% would not be surprising.
Correct. The 1 point lead polls are most likely bunkum. Usually you get a feel about where we stand and looking at polls in general, constituency polling and the public response it really doesn’t feel neck and neck.
That’s funny. Because it does with me. 🧐
Labour no longer “feel” rubbish and controversial as much as Boris and his government does. It does feel closer than some of the very big poll margins.
48 million are entitled to vote tomorrow and the verdict will be in by the weekend
I had a feeling, and mentioned as much, that the dip we apparently witnessed was a temporary tumbleweed reaction to the sleaze onslaught.
Such temporary highs and lows do occur.
We know for example that there can be conference bounces of a similar amount to the sleaze drop: 4 or 5%.
What really counts is whether it sticks. Everything we are hearing on the ground seems to concur with a Cons poll lead of generous proportions. 9% would not be surprising.
Correct. The 1 point lead polls are most likely bunkum. Usually you get a feel about where we stand and looking at polls in general, constituency polling and the public response it really doesn’t feel neck and neck.
I had a feeling, and mentioned as much, that the dip we apparently witnessed was a temporary tumbleweed reaction to the sleaze onslaught.
Such temporary highs and lows do occur.
We know for example that there can be conference bounces of a similar amount to the sleaze drop: 4 or 5%.
What really counts is whether it sticks. Everything we are hearing on the ground seems to concur with a Cons poll lead of generous proportions. 9% would not be surprising.
Correct. The 1 point lead polls are most likely bunkum. Usually you get a feel about where we stand and looking at polls in general, constituency polling and the public response it really doesn’t feel neck and neck.
That’s funny. Because it does with me. 🧐
Labour no longer “feel” rubbish and controversial as much as Boris and his government does. It does feel closer than some of the very big poll margins.
I am willing to opine on this matter and settle the argument some time on Friday night. Would that be useful?
@Steven_Swinford "Boris Johnson is send has sent two Royal Navy offshore patrol vessels to Jersey amid concerns over the threat of a blockade by French fishermen
The PM and Jersey Chief Minister have agreed the move as a 'precautionary measure'"
Things like this can escalate very quickly. What happens if France retaliates and an incident happens?
So let me see if I read you clearly.
France issues threats
We take steps just in case
Any escalation from then on is our fault?
France has acted out ever since Brexit - this is more of the same I am afraid
@Steven_Swinford "Boris Johnson is send has sent two Royal Navy offshore patrol vessels to Jersey amid concerns over the threat of a blockade by French fishermen
The PM and Jersey Chief Minister have agreed the move as a 'precautionary measure'"
Things like this can escalate very quickly. What happens if France retaliates and an incident happens?
I had a feeling, and mentioned as much, that the dip we apparently witnessed was a temporary tumbleweed reaction to the sleaze onslaught.
Such temporary highs and lows do occur.
We know for example that there can be conference bounces of a similar amount to the sleaze drop: 4 or 5%.
What really counts is whether it sticks. Everything we are hearing on the ground seems to concur with a Cons poll lead of generous proportions. 9% would not be surprising.
Correct. The 1 point lead polls are most likely bunkum. Usually you get a feel about where we stand and looking at polls in general, constituency polling and the public response it really doesn’t feel neck and neck.
I had a feeling, and mentioned as much, that the dip we apparently witnessed was a temporary tumbleweed reaction to the sleaze onslaught.
Such temporary highs and lows do occur.
We know for example that there can be conference bounces of a similar amount to the sleaze drop: 4 or 5%.
What really counts is whether it sticks. Everything we are hearing on the ground seems to concur with a Cons poll lead of generous proportions. 9% would not be surprising.
Correct. The 1 point lead polls are most likely bunkum. Usually you get a feel about where we stand and looking at polls in general, constituency polling and the public response it really doesn’t feel neck and neck.
That’s funny. Because it does with me. 🧐
Labour no longer “feel” rubbish and controversial as much as Boris and his government does. It does feel closer than some of the very big poll margins.
48 million are entitled to vote tomorrow and the verdict will be in by the weekend
Not too long to wait
I feel turnout is going to be pathetic.
All CON voters staying at home. LAB doing much better than expected. Everyone loves Keir. And Drakeford.
I had a feeling, and mentioned as much, that the dip we apparently witnessed was a temporary tumbleweed reaction to the sleaze onslaught.
Such temporary highs and lows do occur.
We know for example that there can be conference bounces of a similar amount to the sleaze drop: 4 or 5%.
What really counts is whether it sticks. Everything we are hearing on the ground seems to concur with a Cons poll lead of generous proportions. 9% would not be surprising.
Correct. The 1 point lead polls are most likely bunkum. Usually you get a feel about where we stand and looking at polls in general, constituency polling and the public response it really doesn’t feel neck and neck.
I had a feeling, and mentioned as much, that the dip we apparently witnessed was a temporary tumbleweed reaction to the sleaze onslaught.
Such temporary highs and lows do occur.
We know for example that there can be conference bounces of a similar amount to the sleaze drop: 4 or 5%.
What really counts is whether it sticks. Everything we are hearing on the ground seems to concur with a Cons poll lead of generous proportions. 9% would not be surprising.
Correct. The 1 point lead polls are most likely bunkum. Usually you get a feel about where we stand and looking at polls in general, constituency polling and the public response it really doesn’t feel neck and neck.
That’s funny. Because it does with me. 🧐
Labour no longer “feel” rubbish and controversial as much as Boris and his government does. It does feel closer than some of the very big poll margins.
48 million are entitled to vote tomorrow and the verdict will be in by the weekend
Not too long to wait
I feel turnout is going to be pathetic.
I am sure you are right apart from Scotland and Wales and Harlepool
I had a feeling, and mentioned as much, that the dip we apparently witnessed was a temporary tumbleweed reaction to the sleaze onslaught.
Such temporary highs and lows do occur.
We know for example that there can be conference bounces of a similar amount to the sleaze drop: 4 or 5%.
What really counts is whether it sticks. Everything we are hearing on the ground seems to concur with a Cons poll lead of generous proportions. 9% would not be surprising.
Correct. The 1 point lead polls are most likely bunkum. Usually you get a feel about where we stand and looking at polls in general, constituency polling and the public response it really doesn’t feel neck and neck.
I had a feeling, and mentioned as much, that the dip we apparently witnessed was a temporary tumbleweed reaction to the sleaze onslaught.
Such temporary highs and lows do occur.
We know for example that there can be conference bounces of a similar amount to the sleaze drop: 4 or 5%.
What really counts is whether it sticks. Everything we are hearing on the ground seems to concur with a Cons poll lead of generous proportions. 9% would not be surprising.
Correct. The 1 point lead polls are most likely bunkum. Usually you get a feel about where we stand and looking at polls in general, constituency polling and the public response it really doesn’t feel neck and neck.
That’s funny. Because it does with me. 🧐
Labour no longer “feel” rubbish and controversial as much as Boris and his government does. It does feel closer than some of the very big poll margins.
48 million are entitled to vote tomorrow and the verdict will be in by the weekend
Not too long to wait
I feel turnout is going to be pathetic.
It will be in this household. We only have Thames Valley PCC and I couldn't care less.
I had a feeling, and mentioned as much, that the dip we apparently witnessed was a temporary tumbleweed reaction to the sleaze onslaught.
Such temporary highs and lows do occur.
We know for example that there can be conference bounces of a similar amount to the sleaze drop: 4 or 5%.
What really counts is whether it sticks. Everything we are hearing on the ground seems to concur with a Cons poll lead of generous proportions. 9% would not be surprising.
Correct. The 1 point lead polls are most likely bunkum. Usually you get a feel about where we stand and looking at polls in general, constituency polling and the public response it really doesn’t feel neck and neck.
I had a feeling, and mentioned as much, that the dip we apparently witnessed was a temporary tumbleweed reaction to the sleaze onslaught.
Such temporary highs and lows do occur.
We know for example that there can be conference bounces of a similar amount to the sleaze drop: 4 or 5%.
What really counts is whether it sticks. Everything we are hearing on the ground seems to concur with a Cons poll lead of generous proportions. 9% would not be surprising.
Correct. The 1 point lead polls are most likely bunkum. Usually you get a feel about where we stand and looking at polls in general, constituency polling and the public response it really doesn’t feel neck and neck.
That’s funny. Because it does with me. 🧐
Labour no longer “feel” rubbish and controversial as much as Boris and his government does. It does feel closer than some of the very big poll margins.
48 million are entitled to vote tomorrow and the verdict will be in by the weekend
I had a feeling, and mentioned as much, that the dip we apparently witnessed was a temporary tumbleweed reaction to the sleaze onslaught.
Such temporary highs and lows do occur.
We know for example that there can be conference bounces of a similar amount to the sleaze drop: 4 or 5%.
What really counts is whether it sticks. Everything we are hearing on the ground seems to concur with a Cons poll lead of generous proportions. 9% would not be surprising.
Correct. The 1 point lead polls are most likely bunkum. Usually you get a feel about where we stand and looking at polls in general, constituency polling and the public response it really doesn’t feel neck and neck.
I had a feeling, and mentioned as much, that the dip we apparently witnessed was a temporary tumbleweed reaction to the sleaze onslaught.
Such temporary highs and lows do occur.
We know for example that there can be conference bounces of a similar amount to the sleaze drop: 4 or 5%.
What really counts is whether it sticks. Everything we are hearing on the ground seems to concur with a Cons poll lead of generous proportions. 9% would not be surprising.
Correct. The 1 point lead polls are most likely bunkum. Usually you get a feel about where we stand and looking at polls in general, constituency polling and the public response it really doesn’t feel neck and neck.
That’s funny. Because it does with me. 🧐
Labour no longer “feel” rubbish and controversial as much as Boris and his government does. It does feel closer than some of the very big poll margins.
For what it's worth, Labour phone canvassing down here in Surrey has been the best for years, entirely in a seat we didn't even contest 4 years ago (due to an abortive deal with the LDs). So maybe some of that peculiar mismatch between national polling and local polling is explained by a Labour surge in the south. Which won't win us a Parliamentary seat here, but will help if replicated in several nearby marginals.
Few things are quite so smug as a Scotch sense of moral superiority but when it comes wrapped in a saltire it takes on an extra special level of unbearableness.
And like other nationalisms it is, in the end, founded upon a keen sense of victimhood. Scotland must be protected because Scotland never receives its due, never enjoys a fair crack of the whip, can never be expected to thrive in whatever circumstances pertain at any given time. The neighbours to the south must take some of the responsibility for that, but the real villains are those Scots who fail to recognise there is even a problem
Comments
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1390016916115296256?s=19
In less positive news, I see that Waitrose have introduced a £5 delivery charge. Labourites being hit, yet again.
We've been in this great world where you could spend without inflation.
That great quarter century period (1995 to 2020) is coming to an end. Inflation will return, and it will absolutely kill some people. If you have lots of floating rate debt, especially if combined with fixed incomings (if you're a landlord, basically), then you will get absolutely killed.
Some people who overlevered themselves, are also going to get massacred.
Fiscal rectitude will - eventually - return. But it's going to be a wild ride.
"Boris Johnson is send has sent two Royal Navy offshore patrol vessels to Jersey amid concerns over the threat of a blockade by French fishermen
The PM and Jersey Chief Minister have agreed the move as a 'precautionary measure'"
Such temporary highs and lows do occur.
We know for example that there can be conference bounces of a similar amount to the sleaze drop: 4 or 5%.
What really counts is whether it sticks. Everything we are hearing on the ground seems to concur with a Cons poll lead of generous proportions. 9% would not be surprising.
It looked as if it may have been shifting a bit closer, but unless this one is an outlier it looks like it isn't.
(I'm being facetious)
Without either visible and strong leadership, or some kind of cause celebre, it's hard to see them moving much.
Labour are campaigning as if the Tories are a right wing party, and are confusing being a bit posh with grinding the faces of the poor.
The old Pidcock tendency of 'Tory vermin' and 'Never kissed a Tory' feel not only vote destroying in huge measure - Labour can't get support by hating the people it needs to switch (2.5 million roughly) - it feels quaintly old fashioned. Like the motto 'Kill the Bill' in the current round of leftish demos. Oh; they think it's clever and funny to make a post modern play on words about legislation and slaying coppers. How very 1970s. But at least they don't matter, they are only the fringe of loonies around the Labour left.
Other fun fact, Sunak and Barber both replaced Chancellors who never delivered a budget.
https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1390016696539357187?s=20
If the Tories have become old Labour in spending, northern priorities, not very interested in critical race theory but live and let live and all that, suspicious of Europe, not joining wars, NHS is our religion and all that, self reliance but don't actually let the poor starve, etc, then you risk losing their heartlands. Will the home counties vote for the "Labour of old" in the long term just because it's branded "the Conservative Party"?
It's a delicate balance.
I don't think the Lib Dems can survive at the end of the current realignment, to be honest.
Scottish polls are generally giving the same story: Independence supporters will win on seats; unionists v independence: too close to call on vote share; Vote if there were Ref2: too close to call. It's mostly pretty consistent.
The good news: Alba is toast.
The only difference is that Teesside Airport doesn't have any flights.
https://twitter.com/centrefortowns/status/1377711948473712640?s=19
With more detailed comment in this blogpost:
https://jonn.substack.com/p/its-the-demographics-stupid
Also, I am not predicting any results for tomorrow, I don't want egg on my face
https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1389886639963574273
Not really applicable here.
It will happen eventually and Labour itself may not benefit, a new party might.
Whichever way Southgate goes, I bet England still end up failing to make use of all that talent.
My prediction is
SNP 61
Greens 5
Alba 2
Tories 28
Labour 27
Lib Dems 5
Independent 1
Probably complete rubbish!
And on the eve of polling
http://news.sky.com/story/uk-to-send-two-royal-navy-boats-to-jersey-after-france-threatens-blockade-of-island-port-12297840
Bloody Tory government
Trying to shoehorn in star players with incompatible styles is part of the reason England falls flat so often.
Wouldn't get that from LAB or LD.
70 French fishing boats are planning to blockade St Helier's main harbour early tomorrow morning (6 May).
https://www.itv.com/news/channel/2021-05-05/french-fishermen-to-blockade-st-heliers-harbour-over-licensing-row
Can you?
Labour no longer “feel” rubbish and controversial as much as Boris and his government does. It does feel closer than some of the very big poll margins.
Not too long to wait
https://twitter.com/dennis_welch/status/1390014544890658819?s=19
Looking forward to the outcome of this being reported in PB by people who totally don't believe it but are just telling us what people are thinking.
Coalition - 5 years
Cameron only - 1 year
May - 3 years
Boris - 2 years
The fact that May came in and sacked most of Cammo's ministers, and then Boris came in and sacked most of May's ministers has kept it fresh.
France issues threats
We take steps just in case
Any escalation from then on is our fault?
France has acted out ever since Brexit - this is more of the same I am afraid
Few things are quite so smug as a Scotch sense of moral superiority but when it comes wrapped in a saltire it takes on an extra special level of unbearableness.
And like other nationalisms it is, in the end, founded upon a keen sense of victimhood. Scotland must be protected because Scotland never receives its due, never enjoys a fair crack of the whip, can never be expected to thrive in whatever circumstances pertain at any given time. The neighbours to the south must take some of the responsibility for that, but the real villains are those Scots who fail to recognise there is even a problem
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/scottish-nationalism-is-no-better-than-any-other-kind
BBC News - UK sends Royal Navy to patrol Jersey port amid fishing row
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57003069