Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

May 5th – the 16th anniversary of the last time Labour won a general election – politicalbetting.com

24567

Comments

  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,219
    Foxy said:

    TimT said:

    Ref discussion on previous thread about poverty in WVA, I looked at the Zillow site for real estate in Princeton WVA, and Welch WVA, both in McDowell County. Houses available for under $50k. Not necessarily anything you'd want to live in ...

    On Rightmove there are terraced houses starting at £5000 in Hartlepool.
    Auctions with a starting price of £5000, from memory. Not the same thing...
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946
    Chameleon said:

    Tories about to win WMids and Hartlepool/Teesides by larger amounts than Labour are going to win London by.

    I simply can't reconcile national polling with local polling, unless the Tory SE support has evaporated.

    I go round, and round, and the only way I can reconcile national with the mayoral and Hartlepool polls is that Labour are winning loads of voters over in already Labour seats. And also in seats that are safe Tory seats. Consolidating LD voters in SE, perhaps.

  • Options
    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328

    TimT said:

    Ref discussion on previous thread about poverty in WVA, I looked at the Zillow site for real estate in Princeton WVA, and Welch WVA, both in McDowell County. Houses available for under $50k. Not necessarily anything you'd want to live in ...

    You might be surprised. Princeton is (as I recall) pretty nice (nicer than Welch anyway). Up in the mountains close to the VA line.

    Nearby Bluefield (WV & VA) used to be famous back in the day, for an ice cream parlor that gave out free ice cream when the summertime temperature broke 90F or thereabouts. Was really advertising the fact that, in the dog days of summer, Bluefield had some of the cooler weather in the general area.
    No, clearly some nice bits of Princeton (Jewel of the South, no less), but I was referring to the $50k houses as not being something you'd want

    Princeton WV is only about 90 minutes from Roanoke, too.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,590
    Speaking of Trots, we have one on the Seattle City Council, Ksharma Sawant who is a member of Socialist Alternative, an offshoot of Militant.

    Interesting, the local press, politicos & pundits persist in branding her (in a good way) as a Socialist. When she is overtly a Communist of the Trotskyist persuasion.

    This is because a) calling someone a Commie is considered McCarthyism, even when they affirm they are a Commie; and b) modern journalists, etc are too pig-ignorant to have ever heard of Leon Trotsky.
  • Options
    MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,447

    Damn writing a new topic just as I make a big post on the previous thread!

    Re-post.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/04/internal-polling-suggests-labour-heading-for-defeat-in-hartlepool-byelection?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    ___________________________________
    The mood among some Labour figures in Hartlepool was “pretty desperate”, sources said. Internal data from six weeks of campaigning shows that just over 40% of previous party supporters have said they will vote for the party again this week. The figure is what is known as a “promise rate” – who people say they will vote for – and is based on the canvassing of more than 10,000 people in the town, most of whom have recently voted Labour.

    We haven’t got the small donors that Corbyn brought and haven’t got the big donors that [Tony] Blair had. We’re trapped between the two worlds.”
    -------------------------------

    So the Labour leadership from the right of the party got rid of the people that supplied the bulk of the votes, the money and the canvassing power. They did all this in exchange for some head rubs from the media who will support the Conservatives anyway and some head rubs from loyal Conservative voters who will support the Conservatives anyway.

    Either, they are completely electorally incompetent.

    Or

    They are happy for Labour to fail as long as Labour fails whilst being led by a centrist.

    If anyone who used to say the leader needs to go so the government actually have some opposition for the good of the country they would say so now unless it was just a different kind of cynical excuse for Conservatives to replace Corbyn with an easier opponent.

    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1389661841949855748

    But...but... Tony said we'd be 20 points ahead, we just had to insult and kick out most of the people who actually vote for us and then everyone who doesn't vote for us would see how amazing Labour are and vote for us.

    Failing to realise the left are some of the only sympathetic idiots stupid enough to give Labour their vote.

    @kle4 NP for earlier, I sometimes like to use f you as a term of endearment so I assumed we were becoming friends, so in that spirit f you too ;)

    As with most on the Labour left the 80 seat Tory majority on Corbyn's watch passed you by. You will wake up on Friday and note with interest that Johnson has an 82 seat majority and an 84 seat majority after Batley and Spen, and you will extrapolate from that how well Corbyn actually did in 2019.

    Get rid of Starmer, we need Long-Bailey or Burgon to fly McCluskey's red flag, that'll do the trick. Good luck with that.
    For me Starmer's decision to enervate the base of the party is the problem. You can have all the Ambassadors' Circle meetings you want but the rich bastards aren't the ones with clipboards at polling stations.

    The expulsion of Corbyn was definitely a political mistake, as I predicted at the time, but Starmer is stuck with a very delicate political balancing-act. He urgently needs new advisors to flesh out the Wilsonian idea.
    I hope there will be some genuinely new ideas. I just worry the path of least resistance is a return to soft centralism.
  • Options
    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Floater said:

    I am sure LAB can win a GE in the next 16 years.

    Not under Starmer though. and I can't see under who else in the current PLP.

    I don't think Starmer can *win* an election.
    However a Conservative leader could *lose* an election against Starmer.

    There's a difference I think.
    I don't think you can win in 2024. But LAB can/will win in 2029. No party has won six elections in a row.

    Starmer can get LAB back into a 1992 position particularly if LAB come back in Scotland, which can happen if we have an independence referendum which Sturgeon loses and then people turn against SNP.
    Bear in mind that I am not "Labour". I'm not a member anymore and to be honest I was only ever a member to ensure RLB did not get elected leader.

    I have voted Lib Dems in more elections than I have Labour.
    So you made sure Starmer was in position but have no intention of voting for him?

    Are you a centrist are some kind of far left accelerationist? or maybe a Tory?

    I mean lumbering Labour with a completely unelectable leader seems like madness from anything but a left wing accelerationist or right wing pro Tory point of view?!
    You were more than happy with the previous unelectable leader - Starmer isn't great, but much better than the odious Corbyn.
    Sorry did you read the extracts from the article?!

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/04/internal-polling-suggests-labour-heading-for-defeat-in-hartlepool-byelection

    ----------------------------------
    Exclusive: Party’s own figures show only 40% of previous supporters pledge to back its candidate this time
    ------------------------------------

    This is 40% of people previously voting Labour!!

    You are either going to have to start calling Corbyn an electoral savant or invent a new word for being even more unelectable than unelectable because Corbyn and Starmer do not belong in the same category in terms of electability.

    Corbyn is so much more electable than him it is actually funny.

    No surprise it is a bunch of Tories leaping to Starmer's defence here. Saw a quote on twitter earlier something about the Conservatives going easy on Starmer so Labour don't get rid of him.

    In fairness if Labour had a good leader and the Conservatives had one like Starmer I'd probably try and help prop him up as well, certainly wouldn't attack him as strongly as Conservatives did Corbyn, you'd reserve that for electoral threats.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,590
    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    Ref discussion on previous thread about poverty in WVA, I looked at the Zillow site for real estate in Princeton WVA, and Welch WVA, both in McDowell County. Houses available for under $50k. Not necessarily anything you'd want to live in ...

    You might be surprised. Princeton is (as I recall) pretty nice (nicer than Welch anyway). Up in the mountains close to the VA line.

    Nearby Bluefield (WV & VA) used to be famous back in the day, for an ice cream parlor that gave out free ice cream when the summertime temperature broke 90F or thereabouts. Was really advertising the fact that, in the dog days of summer, Bluefield had some of the cooler weather in the general area.
    No, clearly some nice bits of Princeton (Jewel of the South, no less), but I was referring to the $50k houses as not being something you'd want

    Princeton WV is only about 90 minutes from Roanoke, too.
    And within commuting distance of Liberty University in Lynchburg.

    Even closer to Radford University, Radford VA which is a wee bit more liberal artsy than LU (to put it mildly) but no competition on the basketball court.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited May 2021
    Chameleon said:

    Tories about to win WMids and Hartlepool/Teesides by larger amounts than Labour are going to win London by.

    I simply can't reconcile national polling with local polling, unless the Tory SE support has evaporated.

    Yougov today has Khan beating Bailey 59% to 41%, a bigger margin than the 54% to 37% Street leads Byrne by

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1389657497405960193?s=20

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1389490199168749570?s=20
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,292
    Quite a good Owen jones video about Hartlepool. Like john Harris but not as acute or poignant, but longer and more analytical

    https://twitter.com/aaronbastani/status/1389709708848779265?s=21

    He has some unnerving tics and grimaces

    The takeaway is: Labour need a new identity. Striking policies. SOMETHING
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,986
    edited May 2021
    Chameleon said:

    Tories about to win WMids and Hartlepool/Teesides by larger amounts than Labour are going to win London by.

    I simply can't reconcile national polling with local polling, unless the Tory SE support has evaporated.

    Seems to be the question of the day. Plenty have had a stab. None too convincingly.
    I will point out. Labour polling better in the North than the Midlands. But very poorly in NE.
    May be gaining in the unpolled NW and Yorkshire?
    Speculation only. But to add to the mix of theories.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,590
    TimT, have you ever visited (or been a guest, say at a conference) at White Sulphur Springs Hotel in WSS, WV? Certainly NOT poverty stricken!

    Classic old resort, southern style. If you do visit (for example, like I did to look around and have lunch) then check out the secret bunker installed during the Cold War as an alternative White House or something like that.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,225
    Mortimer said:

    Chameleon said:

    Tories about to win WMids and Hartlepool/Teesides by larger amounts than Labour are going to win London by.

    I simply can't reconcile national polling with local polling, unless the Tory SE support has evaporated.

    I go round, and round, and the only way I can reconcile national with the mayoral and Hartlepool polls is that Labour are winning loads of voters over in already Labour seats. And also in seats that are safe Tory seats. Consolidating LD voters in SE, perhaps.

    Inefficient Labour voting spread and inefficient Labour turnout?
  • Options
    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    edited May 2021
    Leon said:

    Quite a good Owen jones video about Hartlepool. Like john Harris but not as acute or poignant, but longer and more analytical

    https://twitter.com/aaronbastani/status/1389709708848779265?s=21

    He has some unnerving tics and grimaces

    The takeaway is: Labour need a new identity. Striking policies. SOMETHING

    I don't think that'll work - if their policies or identity are popular, the Conservatives will probably just steal them.

    The Tories need to screw up disastrously and unmistakably, probably on the economy. Many didn't think much of their management of the Chinese virus last year, but people cut them some slack because it was so unusual and there was no evidence that Labour would have done differently. And over Brexit, well, even if that is a disaster, people voted for it. So I think it needs to be the economy, like in the early 90s.

    The other possibility is losing Scotland, but again, people may well just shrug, or ask if Labour would have done any better.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,292
    Bit of a narrative changer

    Holyrood Voting Intention:

    Constituency:
    SNP: 42% (-3)
    CON: 25% (+2)
    LAB: 22% (-1)
    LDM: 8% (+1)

    List:
    SNP: 34% (-2)
    CON: 23% (+1)
    LAB: 19% (=)
    GRN: 9% (-1)
    LDM: 6% (+1)

    My Seat Projection:

    SNP 58
    CON 30
    LAB 26
    GRN 10
    LDM 5

    SNP 7 short of a majority
    Indy Majority of 7


    https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1389720781467394048?s=21
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,590
    Here in WA State (the Good Washington as we like to say) Governor Jay Inslee announced to day that, contrary to expectation, NO counties are going back to "Stage Two" due to the 4th wave of COVID.

    It had been widely predicted that King County (Seattle & its eastern/southern suburbs) would be regressing. But the Gov said that state epidemiologists had determined that the latest wave of crud had plateaued last weekend.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,225

    I am sure LAB can win a GE in the next 16 years.

    Not under Starmer though. and I can't see under who else in the current PLP.

    I don't think Starmer can *win* an election.
    However a Conservative leader could *lose* an election against Starmer.

    There's a difference I think.
    I don't think you can win in 2024. But LAB can/will win in 2029. No party has won six elections in a row.

    Starmer can get LAB back into a 1992 position particularly if LAB come back in Scotland, which can happen if we have an independence referendum which Sturgeon loses and then people turn against SNP.
    Bear in mind that I am not "Labour". I'm not a member anymore and to be honest I was only ever a member to ensure RLB did not get elected leader.

    I have voted Lib Dems in more elections than I have Labour.
    So you made sure Starmer was in position but have no intention of voting for him?

    Are you a centrist are some kind of far left accelerationist? or maybe a Tory?

    I mean lumbering Labour with a completely unelectable leader seems like madness from anything but a left wing accelerationist or right wing pro Tory point of view?!
    If we are not Corbynites, are we not Tories? I thought we were.
    The people we called Trots called us Tories, isn't that mean....

    I am sorry if your feelings were hurt, as the saying goes, if you ain't big enough to take it then don't dish it out... I mean something like that anyway.

    If the reaction to enthusiastic young people joining Labour is to label them all trots because it suits your political purposes then acting hurt when you get called Tories in response is not only completely hypocritical but beyond the sensitivity levels any grown adult should display.
    A fair point, except don't you favour the manifesto set out in the Works of Leon Trotsky? I have never promoted Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations narrative.
    I have never read the works of Leon Trotsky, I actually know far more of Adam Smith's wealth of nations text(s)

    But at a guess nationalised broadband isn't mentioned?

    I haven't ever personally promoted by own manifesto but I liked parts of the Labour one... not sure it really counts as favouring the manifesto set out in the works of Leon Trotsky but maybe those lazy so and so's at head office merely did some copy paste move and there was the Labour manifesto.

    I am extremely interested in Trotsky's approach of first respecting the Brexit referendum and then proposing a second referendum, an interesting couple of chapters no doubt.
    Your final paragraph is where Trotsky and myself parted ways. Turns out on your analysis suggests Trotsky was more pragmatic and astute than me over Brexit.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited May 2021
    SNP collapse in new Comres Holyrood poll as the Scottish Conservatives surge to 25% just a day before polling day.

    Constituency

    SNP 42%
    Scons 25%
    Slab 22%
    LDs 8%

    List

    SNP 34%
    SCons 22%
    Slab 19%
    Greens 9%
    LDs 6%
    Alba 2%
    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1389720135544590337?s=20
  • Options
    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328

    TimT, have you ever visited (or been a guest, say at a conference) at White Sulphur Springs Hotel in WSS, WV? Certainly NOT poverty stricken!

    Classic old resort, southern style. If you do visit (for example, like I did to look around and have lunch) then check out the secret bunker installed during the Cold War as an alternative White House or something like that.

    No, but been to Greenbrier and the big hotel in Asheville (now the Omni?). I presume similar?
  • Options
    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    Ref discussion on previous thread about poverty in WVA, I looked at the Zillow site for real estate in Princeton WVA, and Welch WVA, both in McDowell County. Houses available for under $50k. Not necessarily anything you'd want to live in ...

    You might be surprised. Princeton is (as I recall) pretty nice (nicer than Welch anyway). Up in the mountains close to the VA line.

    Nearby Bluefield (WV & VA) used to be famous back in the day, for an ice cream parlor that gave out free ice cream when the summertime temperature broke 90F or thereabouts. Was really advertising the fact that, in the dog days of summer, Bluefield had some of the cooler weather in the general area.
    No, clearly some nice bits of Princeton (Jewel of the South, no less), but I was referring to the $50k houses as not being something you'd want

    Princeton WV is only about 90 minutes from Roanoke, too.
    And within commuting distance of Liberty University in Lynchburg.

    Even closer to Radford University, Radford VA which is a wee bit more liberal artsy than LU (to put it mildly) but no competition on the basketball court.
    To be clear, I quite like Appalachia, at least the natural beauty.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,292
    Scots don’t want Indy. Maybe this explains Sturgeon’s odd remarks tonight. Late polling?


    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿New #indyref2 VI for @TheScotsman

    No 50 (+1)
    Yes 42 (-)
    Undecided 8 (-)

    Excl. undecided
    No 54 (-)
    Yes 46 (-)

    30 April - 4 May

    (chg from 23-27 April)
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,590
    TimT said:

    TimT, have you ever visited (or been a guest, say at a conference) at White Sulphur Springs Hotel in WSS, WV? Certainly NOT poverty stricken!

    Classic old resort, southern style. If you do visit (for example, like I did to look around and have lunch) then check out the secret bunker installed during the Cold War as an alternative White House or something like that.

    No, but been to Greenbrier and the big hotel in Asheville (now the Omni?). I presume similar?
    The Greenbriar is the one I mean:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Greenbrier

    "The Bunker

    In the late 1950s, the U.S. government approached The Greenbrier for assistance in creating a secret emergency relocation center to house Congress in the aftermath of a nuclear holocaust. The classified, underground facility, named "Project Greek Island" was built at the same time as the West Virginia Wing, an above-ground addition to the hotel, from 1959 to 1962.

    Although for 30 years the bunker was kept stocked with supplies, it was never used as an emergency location, even during the Cuban Missile Crisis. The existence of the bunker was not acknowledged by the government; Ted Gup of The Washington Post reported it in a 1992 story. Immediately after publication of the Post story, the government decommissioned the bunker. The facility has since been renovated. It is used as a data storage facility by CSX IP for the private sector. It is featured as an attraction in which visitors can tour the now declassified facilities, known as The Bunker."
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,986
    edited May 2021
    HYUFD said:

    SNP collapse in new Comres Holyrood poll as the Scottish Conservatives surge to 25% just a day before polling day.

    Constituency

    SNP 42%
    Scons 25%
    Slab 22%
    LDs 8%

    List

    SNP 34%
    SCons 22%
    Slab 19%
    Greens 9%
    LDs 6%
    Alba 2%
    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1389720135544590337?s=20

    These polls are madness. No herding that's for sure. A very good thing, as we are getting contradictory information. Take your choice.
    Not long till all is revealed.
    Drip, drip slow over several days.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,590
    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    Ref discussion on previous thread about poverty in WVA, I looked at the Zillow site for real estate in Princeton WVA, and Welch WVA, both in McDowell County. Houses available for under $50k. Not necessarily anything you'd want to live in ...

    You might be surprised. Princeton is (as I recall) pretty nice (nicer than Welch anyway). Up in the mountains close to the VA line.

    Nearby Bluefield (WV & VA) used to be famous back in the day, for an ice cream parlor that gave out free ice cream when the summertime temperature broke 90F or thereabouts. Was really advertising the fact that, in the dog days of summer, Bluefield had some of the cooler weather in the general area.
    No, clearly some nice bits of Princeton (Jewel of the South, no less), but I was referring to the $50k houses as not being something you'd want

    Princeton WV is only about 90 minutes from Roanoke, too.
    And within commuting distance of Liberty University in Lynchburg.

    Even closer to Radford University, Radford VA which is a wee bit more liberal artsy than LU (to put it mildly) but no competition on the basketball court.
    To be clear, I quite like Appalachia, at least the natural beauty.
    No fear, I know that about you. You're alright - for a flatlander!
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,344



    Sorry did you read the extracts from the article?!

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/04/internal-polling-suggests-labour-heading-for-defeat-in-hartlepool-byelection

    ----------------------------------
    Exclusive: Party’s own figures show only 40% of previous supporters pledge to back its candidate this time
    ------------------------------------

    This is 40% of people previously voting Labour!!

    You are either going to have to start calling Corbyn an electoral savant or invent a new word for being even more unelectable than unelectable because Corbyn and Starmer do not belong in the same category in terms of electability.

    Corbyn is so much more electable than him it is actually funny.

    No surprise it is a bunch of Tories leaping to Starmer's defence here. Saw a quote on twitter earlier something about the Conservatives going easy on Starmer so Labour don't get rid of him.

    In fairness if Labour had a good leader and the Conservatives had one like Starmer I'd probably try and help prop him up as well, certainly wouldn't attack him as strongly as Conservatives did Corbyn, you'd reserve that for electoral threats.

    I think the position is that Corbyn genuinely enthused lots of people, especially in 2017, but for whatever reason (we can debate that separately) eventually in 2019 made a majority determined not to elect him. Starmer doesn't so far enthuse most people, but also doesn't alienate many. So he gets quite good polling, but he doesn't really mobilise people to rush out and vote, in the same way that I quite like pizza (ideally with pineapple) but never eat it in practice.

    Harold Wilson observed that Labour is best led from the left, by which I think he meant the starting position needs to be on the left to get the sense of purpose and enthusiasm, and one can then compromise as necessary. I still like Corbyn personally and he did part 1 excellently, but he's not a man for compromise.

    Starmer's view is that you have to first dispel the solid antipathy of people who became determined not to vote Labour before you can usefully get to the enthusing part - especially during the pandemic when people are only half-listening anyway. That may be right, but it requires a good deal of patience among Labour supporters, and acceptance of some poor results. We shall see.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,292
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    SNP collapse in new Comres Holyrood poll as the Scottish Conservatives surge to 25% just a day before polling day.

    Constituency

    SNP 42%
    Scons 25%
    Slab 22%
    LDs 8%

    List

    SNP 34%
    SCons 22%
    Slab 19%
    Greens 9%
    LDs 6%
    Alba 2%
    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1389720135544590337?s=20

    These polls are madness. No herding that's for sure. A very good thing, as we are getting contradictory information. Take your choice.
    Not long till all is revealed.
    Drip, drip slow over several days.
    Let’s hope this one comes true. It’s ideal (within the bounds of likelihood) for unionists. Sturgeon will be humbled. She might not even call for indyref2. It will be easily batted away anyhow. Nonetheless, with this result, she staggers on, damaged. Salmond might just sneak in as the 1 Alba MP, to torment her. The Tories look good and they Oppose

    The Nats descend into vitriolic feuding

    Boris is a lucky general. This would be outrageous luck
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,081
    HYUFD said:

    SNP collapse in new Comres Holyrood poll as the Scottish Conservatives surge to 25% just a day before polling day.

    Constituency

    SNP 42%
    Scons 25%
    Slab 22%
    LDs 8%

    List

    SNP 34%
    SCons 22%
    Slab 19%
    Greens 9%
    LDs 6%
    Alba 2%
    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1389720135544590337?s=20

    "Surge to 25%" :D
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,081
    So ComRes reckons SNP 42% in the Constituency vote. YouGov reckons SNP 52% in the Constituency vote. Crazy.
  • Options
    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,197
    Leon said:

    Scots don’t want Indy. Maybe this explains Sturgeon’s odd remarks tonight. Late polling?


    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿New #indyref2 VI for @TheScotsman

    No 50 (+1)
    Yes 42 (-)
    Undecided 8 (-)

    Excl. undecided
    No 54 (-)
    Yes 46 (-)

    30 April - 4 May

    (chg from 23-27 April)

    This aligns with what I said earlier. Maybe SNP meltdown just like CON in GE 2017. Perhaps Sarwar new FM supported by all other parties?
  • Options
    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1389712418792693767

    It is interesting to watch how the Tories learn from Corbyn, whilst calling him a witch whereas the Labour right so filled with superstition and terror they actively run around burning anything that could even potentially be termed to look Corbyn lest they be cursed by demons.

    Although to clarify I am not saying that people who believe in witches and demon curses are as deluded as the Labour right, just using them to make a point.

  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,292
    edited May 2021
    No: 55
    Yes: 45

    Yougov/Times

    SNP maj 7...

    These are not great for Sturgeon. No way she calls indyvote with those stats

    https://twitter.com/hoski67/status/1389706029206802435?s=21
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    SNP collapse in new Comres Holyrood poll as the Scottish Conservatives surge to 25% just a day before polling day.

    Constituency

    SNP 42%
    Scons 25%
    Slab 22%
    LDs 8%

    List

    SNP 34%
    SCons 22%
    Slab 19%
    Greens 9%
    LDs 6%
    Alba 2%
    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1389720135544590337?s=20

    These polls are madness. No herding that's for sure. A very good thing, as we are getting contradictory information. Take your choice.
    Not long till all is revealed.
    Drip, drip slow over several days.
    I have a feeling (okay, I'm 99% sure that it's heart not head), that SNP are likely to underperform due to apathy, like they did in 2016.

    The SNP are going to be the Govt after the election no matter what, and their big pledge (SIndly) isn't desired in the short term by most. No much incentive to go vote for most SNP voters.

    https://twitter.com/DeanMThomson/status/1389266150375165955

    The thread above is one showing that the same voter apathy that made the SNP underperform by 5% in 2016 is still there, and slightly larger, so the Comres poll 'feels' a bit more in line with what I expect to happen. From a Unionist PoV, if the SNP lose net 1 seat that's a good result.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,685

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1389712418792693767

    It is interesting to watch how the Tories learn from Corbyn, whilst calling him a witch whereas the Labour right so filled with superstition and terror they actively run around burning anything that could even potentially be termed to look Corbyn lest they be cursed by demons.

    Although to clarify I am not saying that people who believe in witches and demon curses are as deluded as the Labour right, just using them to make a point.

    I'm not a Labour supporter at the moment (although I have voted for them in the past), but even I'm getting a bit worried about the level of bitterness between the different wings of the party on display on sites like this.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,685
    HYUFD said:

    Chameleon said:

    Tories about to win WMids and Hartlepool/Teesides by larger amounts than Labour are going to win London by.

    I simply can't reconcile national polling with local polling, unless the Tory SE support has evaporated.

    Yougov today has Khan beating Bailey 59% to 41%, a bigger margin than the 54% to 37% Street leads Byrne by

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1389657497405960193?s=20

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1389490199168749570?s=20
    Anything over 40% would be a decent result for Bailey.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,590
    As I recall, Stalin enjoyed making jokes about Madame Kollontai's love life, in particular her passion for a much younger sailor.

    Uncle Joe (the Man of Steel, not the Demented Vegetable) appointed Kollontai as Soviet Ambassador to Sweden. Where she played a key role in ending the (first) Russo-Finnish War in early 1940.

    Speaking of Trots, we have one on the Seattle City Council, Ksharma Sawant who is a member of Socialist Alternative, an offshoot of Militant.

    Interesting, the local press, politicos & pundits persist in branding her (in a good way) as a Socialist. When she is overtly a Communist of the Trotskyist persuasion.

    This is because a) calling someone a Commie is considered McCarthyism, even when they affirm they are a Commie; and b) modern journalists, etc are too pig-ignorant to have ever heard of Leon Trotsky.

    Idle anecdote to round out the evening: my grandfather knew Trotsky. My granddad was a thoroughly apolitical civil lawyer in Moscow during the revolution; an affable man, he got on with everyone (and very much fancied Alexandra Kollantai, "the most fascinating woman I ever met" - not sure how my grandmother felt about that) but steered clear of joining any factions. When two policemen came round to arrest him for interrogation, he persuaded them to spend the night at his home drinking vodka and playing cards, so they all arrived at the interrogators next morning in jovial mood with his captors confirming he was a good fellow; after perfunctory questioning he was released.

    The family could see that Tsarism was rotten so they weren't against the revolution, but the narrowing of tolerated opinion (you gradually had to be for the government, being amiably neutral wasn't enough) made them migrate in the mid-20s, first to Gdansk and then mostly to Britain. My grandfather decided the future was far away from Europe and its wars, so learned Spanish and moved to Mexico. He was then irritated to find Trotsky turning up and renewing the acquaintance (not many Russians in Mexico at the time, I expect) - the whole point was to get aware from European politics, so he politely declined Trotsky's attempts to socialise. (Perhaps just as well for his good health, in view of subsequent events.)

    The family was supposed to follow him once he'd got a job, but war then intervened and stopped all civilian traffic, and by the time the war ended his wife was settled in London and the separation became permanent (hence, in due course, me).
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,292

    Speaking of Trots, we have one on the Seattle City Council, Ksharma Sawant who is a member of Socialist Alternative, an offshoot of Militant.

    Interesting, the local press, politicos & pundits persist in branding her (in a good way) as a Socialist. When she is overtly a Communist of the Trotskyist persuasion.

    This is because a) calling someone a Commie is considered McCarthyism, even when they affirm they are a Commie; and b) modern journalists, etc are too pig-ignorant to have ever heard of Leon Trotsky.

    Idle anecdote to round out the evening: my grandfather knew Trotsky. My granddad was a thoroughly apolitical civil lawyer in Moscow during the revolution; an affable man, he got on with everyone (and very much fancied Alexandra Kollantai, "the most fascinating woman I ever met" - not sure how my grandmother felt about that) but steered clear of joining any factions. When two policemen came round to arrest him for interrogation, he persuaded them to spend the night at his home drinking vodka and playing cards, so they all arrived at the interrogators next morning in jovial mood with his captors confirming he was a good fellow; after perfunctory questioning he was released.

    The family could see that Tsarism was rotten so they weren't against the revolution, but the narrowing of tolerated opinion (you gradually had to be for the government, being amiably neutral wasn't enough) made them migrate in the mid-20s, first to Gdansk and then mostly to Britain. My grandfather decided the future was far away from Europe and its wars, so learned Spanish and moved to Mexico. He was then irritated to find Trotsky turning up and renewing the acquaintance (not many Russians in Mexico at the time, I expect) - the whole point was to get aware from European politics, so he politely declined Trotsky's attempts to socialise. (Perhaps just as well for his good health, in view of subsequent events.)

    The family was supposed to follow him once he'd got a job, but war then intervened and stopped all civilian traffic, and by the time the war ended his wife was settled in London and the separation became permanent (hence, in due course, me).
    Fascinating life story. Does that make you Russian-Jewish?!
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,590
    Leon said:

    Speaking of Trots, we have one on the Seattle City Council, Ksharma Sawant who is a member of Socialist Alternative, an offshoot of Militant.

    Interesting, the local press, politicos & pundits persist in branding her (in a good way) as a Socialist. When she is overtly a Communist of the Trotskyist persuasion.

    This is because a) calling someone a Commie is considered McCarthyism, even when they affirm they are a Commie; and b) modern journalists, etc are too pig-ignorant to have ever heard of Leon Trotsky.

    Idle anecdote to round out the evening: my grandfather knew Trotsky. My granddad was a thoroughly apolitical civil lawyer in Moscow during the revolution; an affable man, he got on with everyone (and very much fancied Alexandra Kollantai, "the most fascinating woman I ever met" - not sure how my grandmother felt about that) but steered clear of joining any factions. When two policemen came round to arrest him for interrogation, he persuaded them to spend the night at his home drinking vodka and playing cards, so they all arrived at the interrogators next morning in jovial mood with his captors confirming he was a good fellow; after perfunctory questioning he was released.

    The family could see that Tsarism was rotten so they weren't against the revolution, but the narrowing of tolerated opinion (you gradually had to be for the government, being amiably neutral wasn't enough) made them migrate in the mid-20s, first to Gdansk and then mostly to Britain. My grandfather decided the future was far away from Europe and its wars, so learned Spanish and moved to Mexico. He was then irritated to find Trotsky turning up and renewing the acquaintance (not many Russians in Mexico at the time, I expect) - the whole point was to get aware from European politics, so he politely declined Trotsky's attempts to socialise. (Perhaps just as well for his good health, in view of subsequent events.)

    The family was supposed to follow him once he'd got a job, but war then intervened and stopped all civilian traffic, and by the time the war ended his wife was settled in London and the separation became permanent (hence, in due course, me).
    Fascinating life story. Does that make you Russian-Jewish?!
    And/or Mexican-English?
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,429
    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    First

    To Kill A Mockingbird: cancelled

    Sorry


    'To Kill a Mockingbird,' Other Books Banned From California Schools Over Racism Concerns


    https://www.newsweek.com/kill-mockingbird-other-books-banned-california-schools-over-racism-concerns-1547241
    Ironically, that happened under President Trump.

    Re the recommended cessation of advanced maths classes for gifted students, am I right in thinking we have never had these sorts of classes in Britain, at least not in state schools?
    I don't know what you are referring to exactly, but my school did 'A' level maths in lower 6th, and Advanced Maths in the upper 6th. Is that the same thing?
    I don't think so. I get the impression, and it is only an impression, these are special advanced classes for gifted children, whereas you describe our standard A-level courses. Even if it turns out the actual content is much the same, it is the concept of going above and beyond the standard syllabus that we do not have in (most) schools here.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,685
    edited May 2021
    The 2005 election feels more like 8 years ago to me than 16. Not sure why that is.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,292

    Leon said:

    Speaking of Trots, we have one on the Seattle City Council, Ksharma Sawant who is a member of Socialist Alternative, an offshoot of Militant.

    Interesting, the local press, politicos & pundits persist in branding her (in a good way) as a Socialist. When she is overtly a Communist of the Trotskyist persuasion.

    This is because a) calling someone a Commie is considered McCarthyism, even when they affirm they are a Commie; and b) modern journalists, etc are too pig-ignorant to have ever heard of Leon Trotsky.

    Idle anecdote to round out the evening: my grandfather knew Trotsky. My granddad was a thoroughly apolitical civil lawyer in Moscow during the revolution; an affable man, he got on with everyone (and very much fancied Alexandra Kollantai, "the most fascinating woman I ever met" - not sure how my grandmother felt about that) but steered clear of joining any factions. When two policemen came round to arrest him for interrogation, he persuaded them to spend the night at his home drinking vodka and playing cards, so they all arrived at the interrogators next morning in jovial mood with his captors confirming he was a good fellow; after perfunctory questioning he was released.

    The family could see that Tsarism was rotten so they weren't against the revolution, but the narrowing of tolerated opinion (you gradually had to be for the government, being amiably neutral wasn't enough) made them migrate in the mid-20s, first to Gdansk and then mostly to Britain. My grandfather decided the future was far away from Europe and its wars, so learned Spanish and moved to Mexico. He was then irritated to find Trotsky turning up and renewing the acquaintance (not many Russians in Mexico at the time, I expect) - the whole point was to get aware from European politics, so he politely declined Trotsky's attempts to socialise. (Perhaps just as well for his good health, in view of subsequent events.)

    The family was supposed to follow him once he'd got a job, but war then intervened and stopped all civilian traffic, and by the time the war ended his wife was settled in London and the separation became permanent (hence, in due course, me).
    Fascinating life story. Does that make you Russian-Jewish?!
    And/or Mexican-English?
    I vaguely recall NPXMP speaking of ‘Jewish ancestry’. Possibly wrong but this would fit

    The woman Alexandra K is remarkable. Never heard of her before

    Wiki:

    [edit]
    Alexandra Kollontai died in Moscow on 9 March 1952, less than a month from her 80th birthday. She was the only member of the Bolsheviks' Central Committee that had led the October Revolution who managed to live into the 1950s, other than Stalin himself and his devoted supporter Matvei Muranov.[k]
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,292

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    First

    To Kill A Mockingbird: cancelled

    Sorry


    'To Kill a Mockingbird,' Other Books Banned From California Schools Over Racism Concerns


    https://www.newsweek.com/kill-mockingbird-other-books-banned-california-schools-over-racism-concerns-1547241
    Ironically, that happened under President Trump.

    Re the recommended cessation of advanced maths classes for gifted students, am I right in thinking we have never had these sorts of classes in Britain, at least not in state schools?
    I don't know what you are referring to exactly, but my school did 'A' level maths in lower 6th, and Advanced Maths in the upper 6th. Is that the same thing?
    I don't think so. I get the impression, and it is only an impression, these are special advanced classes for gifted children, whereas you describe our standard A-level courses. Even if it turns out the actual content is much the same, it is the concept of going above and beyond the standard syllabus that we do not have in (most) schools here.
    My younger daughter in Sydney, Oz, has just been selected for a ‘gifted children’ programme Down Under. She’s 14 and tells me with furious articulacy that she wants to pursue a life in ‘investigative science’

    *proud father*
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079
    Talking of Trotsky, this photo of him came up on Twitter recently. He’s fishing wearing a Cartier watch.

    image
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,590
    "Trotsky knew my grandfather / Grandfather knew Trotsky"
  • Options
    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,710
    If you had told a Labour party member in November 1974, that between now and fifty years hence there would be 12 general elections [1] and Labour would only win three of them by installing a leader who could charitably be described as centrist [2], they'd have laughed.

    [1] Including the May 2024 election, which I'm guessing at, but I think Labour will lose.
    [2] I might describe Blair as centre-right, but that might be a touch harsh.
  • Options
    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,710

    If Keir gets 260 seats in GE 2024 will LAB let him have another go in 2029???

    Yes. If they let Kinnock have another go after 1987 (after gaining about 40 seats) they'll let Starmer have another go (if he wants to) in 2028/29.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,344
    edited May 2021

    As I recall, Stalin enjoyed making jokes about Madame Kollontai's love life, in particular her passion for a much younger sailor.

    Uncle Joe (the Man of Steel, not the Demented Vegetable) appointed Kollontai as Soviet Ambassador to Sweden. Where she played a key role in ending the (first) Russo-Finnish War in early 1940.

    Yes, Kollontai was an interesting character with a 21st century view of sex (why not sleep with people if it gives you both pleasure?), and one of the vivid characters who flourished in the early revolution and were gradually crushed by thr grim greyness of Stalin. Lenin liked her and it's thought arranged for her to get the Stockholm job to keep he safe - she was too keen on fearlessly expressing her opinions.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,590

    As I recall, Stalin enjoyed making jokes about Madame Kollontai's love life, in particular her passion for a much younger sailor.

    Uncle Joe (the Man of Steel, not the Demented Vegetable) appointed Kollontai as Soviet Ambassador to Sweden. Where she played a key role in ending the (first) Russo-Finnish War in early 1940.

    Yes, Kollontai was an interesting character with a 21st century view of sex (why not sleep with people if it gives you both pleasure?), and one of the vivid characters who flourished in the early revolution and were gradually crushed by thr grim greyness of Stalin. Lenin liked her and it's thought arranged for her to get the Stockholm job to keep he safe - she was too keen on fearlessly expressing her opinions.
    She was the It Girl of the Russian Revolution. Likely what preserved her into a most unusually ripe old age for an Old Bolshevik.

    Story re: 1940 is that Madame Kollontai was approached by a leading Finnish Communist, who like 99% or so of her comrades was loyal to Finland vs the USSR during the Russian-Finnish War, but not during the Continuation War following Barbarossa, when Finnish Army crossed the old Soviet border into Karelia.

    This approach led to a series of back-channel discussions culminating in formal talks and an end to the war. The Finns were at the breaking point, and Stalin was looking for a way out.

    Comment by one Soviet general on the peace settlement, which included cession of about 10% of Finnish territory to Russia (which still has it): "We got enough land to bury our dead".
  • Options
    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited May 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1389712418792693767

    It is interesting to watch how the Tories learn from Corbyn, whilst calling him a witch whereas the Labour right so filled with superstition and terror they actively run around burning anything that could even potentially be termed to look Corbyn lest they be cursed by demons.

    Although to clarify I am not saying that people who believe in witches and demon curses are as deluded as the Labour right, just using them to make a point.

    I'm not a Labour supporter at the moment (although I have voted for them in the past), but even I'm getting a bit worried about the level of bitterness between the different wings of the party on display on sites like this.
    New parties are obviously suicide and splitting is obviously suicide but I've been coming around to the idea it might be less suicidal than staying together.

    Trouble is I don't see how they agree on who gets the name, even trying to split would end in impossible to solve arguments.

    Before anyone mentions the centrists getting the name, obviously not, Labour was setup as a left wing party.

    Edit: Fascinating back story btw!
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    HYUFD said:

    SNP collapse in new Comres Holyrood poll as the Scottish Conservatives surge to 25% just a day before polling day.

    Constituency

    SNP 42%
    Scons 25%
    Slab 22%
    LDs 8%

    List

    SNP 34%
    SCons 22%
    Slab 19%
    Greens 9%
    LDs 6%
    Alba 2%
    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1389720135544590337?s=20

    Thursday would be a good day for that SNP honeymoon to finally start coming to an end....
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,289
    Con just matched at 1.08 for Hartlepool.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,289
    HYUFD said:

    SNP collapse in new Comres Holyrood poll as the Scottish Conservatives surge to 25% just a day before polling day.

    Constituency

    SNP 42%
    Scons 25%
    Slab 22%
    LDs 8%

    List

    SNP 34%
    SCons 22%
    Slab 19%
    Greens 9%
    LDs 6%
    Alba 2%
    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1389720135544590337?s=20

    List:

    Con + Lab + LD = 47%

    SNP + Green + Alba = 45%

    So could there even be a chance of no majority for a Ref?

    And if assume 2% for Alba gets no seats then it would be 47 - 43.

    OK, overall result won't precisely match list percentages but must surely be an outside chance?
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190

    So ComRes reckons SNP 42% in the Constituency vote. YouGov reckons SNP 52% in the Constituency vote. Crazy.

    Not crazy, healthy. Pollsters herding is a bad thing.

    Which is closest to the truth...
  • Options
    swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    fascinating polling....
    shy tories in Scotland? I still think Hartlepool may be a little closer than polls predict...a gut feeling but a sweeping win for Conservatives in NE doesnt feel right
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,685

    So ComRes reckons SNP 42% in the Constituency vote. YouGov reckons SNP 52% in the Constituency vote. Crazy.

    Probably means they're on 47%. You always get outliers.
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    Ref discussion on previous thread about poverty in WVA, I looked at the Zillow site for real estate in Princeton WVA, and Welch WVA, both in McDowell County. Houses available for under $50k. Not necessarily anything you'd want to live in ...

    You might be surprised. Princeton is (as I recall) pretty nice (nicer than Welch anyway). Up in the mountains close to the VA line.

    Nearby Bluefield (WV & VA) used to be famous back in the day, for an ice cream parlor that gave out free ice cream when the summertime temperature broke 90F or thereabouts. Was really advertising the fact that, in the dog days of summer, Bluefield had some of the cooler weather in the general area.
    No, clearly some nice bits of Princeton (Jewel of the South, no less), but I was referring to the $50k houses as not being something you'd want

    Princeton WV is only about 90 minutes from Roanoke, too.
    And within commuting distance of Liberty University in Lynchburg.

    Even closer to Radford University, Radford VA which is a wee bit more liberal artsy than LU (to put it mildly) but no competition on the basketball court.
    To be clear, I quite like Appalachia, at least the natural beauty.
    Here in Scotland, gap years before heading off to Uni are not a thing. But when our middle lad and his best friend finished their Uni degrees they then decided to do just that before they settled down to finding a future real job. They then immediately set off to the US to walk the Appalachian Trail, they started in Georgia and completed it in five and half months meeting many new friends along the way. They quickly joined up with two American lads who like them had just finished Uni and built such a solid friendship that they have been over to visit us in Scotland.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,590
    CBC - Couple accused of sneaking into Beaver Creek [Yukon], getting COVID-19 vaccines have 1st court date

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/beaver-creek-vaccine-court-case-1.6013749

    A Vancouver couple accused of flouting Yukon's COVID-19 rules and travelling to Beaver Creek to get doses of the Moderna vaccine meant for locals had their first court date on Tuesday.

    Rodney and Ekaterina Baker were scheduled to make a first appearance on four charges under Yukon's Civil Emergency Measures Act (CEMA) in Whitehorse. . . .

    The couple, who are facing a charge each of failing to adhere to an entry declaration form and failing to self-isolate, did not appear in court in person. A lawyer appeared via phone on their behalf. . . .

    The Bakers are accused of flying to Yukon in January and ignoring the mandatory 14-day self-isolation period for anyone arriving from outside the territory. Instead, they allegedly chartered a plane to Beaver Creek, where they posed as workers from a local motel in order to take advantage of a vaccine clinic intended for area residents.

    Beaver Creek is a community of about 100 people located roughly 450 kilometres northwest of Whitehorse near the Alaska border and is home to the White River First Nation.

    Officials stopped and charged the Bakers at the Whitehorse airport, as they were about to leave the territory, after vaccine clinic staff raised suspicions about the couple's actual identities.

    Rod Baker, at the time, was the president and CEO of the Great Canadian Gaming Corporation while Ekaterina Baker is an actress. Rod Baker resigned from his position shortly after the alleged incident.

    The incident prompted sharp condemnation from across the country and led to Yukon changing its proof-of-residency requirements at its vaccine clinics.

    The Bakers, if convicted, face a maximum penalty of a $575 fine per charge ($2,300 total), six months in jail or both.

    First Nation continues calls for jail time

    White River First Nation has been calling for a harsher punishment for the couple since the incident came to light.

    In a written statement issued on Sunday in anticipation of the court date, the First Nation said the Bakers' alleged "callous and irresponsible behaviour" put elders and other vulnerable community members at risk and showed a "clear lack of respect for other people's safety, other than their own."

    "The courts cannot let the fact that time has passed, and more people are vaccinated now, to cloud the seriousness of their offence to our community," Chief Bessie Chasse said in the news release.

    "Issuing a fine to the Bakers, who are wealthy, without additional punishment, would have little meaning or effect... WRFN believes that a fine alone would not send a sufficient message to others who may choose to behave in this fashion." . . .

    Comment - Personally hope these scumbags do get jail time.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,590
    fitalass said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    Ref discussion on previous thread about poverty in WVA, I looked at the Zillow site for real estate in Princeton WVA, and Welch WVA, both in McDowell County. Houses available for under $50k. Not necessarily anything you'd want to live in ...

    You might be surprised. Princeton is (as I recall) pretty nice (nicer than Welch anyway). Up in the mountains close to the VA line.

    Nearby Bluefield (WV & VA) used to be famous back in the day, for an ice cream parlor that gave out free ice cream when the summertime temperature broke 90F or thereabouts. Was really advertising the fact that, in the dog days of summer, Bluefield had some of the cooler weather in the general area.
    No, clearly some nice bits of Princeton (Jewel of the South, no less), but I was referring to the $50k houses as not being something you'd want

    Princeton WV is only about 90 minutes from Roanoke, too.
    And within commuting distance of Liberty University in Lynchburg.

    Even closer to Radford University, Radford VA which is a wee bit more liberal artsy than LU (to put it mildly) but no competition on the basketball court.
    To be clear, I quite like Appalachia, at least the natural beauty.
    Here in Scotland, gap years before heading off to Uni are not a thing. But when our middle lad and his best friend finished their Uni degrees they then decided to do just that before they settled down to finding a future real job. They then immediately set off to the US to walk the Appalachian Trail, they started in Georgia and completed it in five and half months meeting many new friends along the way. They quickly joined up with two American lads who like them had just finished Uni and built such a solid friendship that they have been over to visit us in Scotland.
    Hello, Fitalass! Long time no see on PB, good to read your comment.
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279

    fitalass said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    Ref discussion on previous thread about poverty in WVA, I looked at the Zillow site for real estate in Princeton WVA, and Welch WVA, both in McDowell County. Houses available for under $50k. Not necessarily anything you'd want to live in ...

    You might be surprised. Princeton is (as I recall) pretty nice (nicer than Welch anyway). Up in the mountains close to the VA line.

    Nearby Bluefield (WV & VA) used to be famous back in the day, for an ice cream parlor that gave out free ice cream when the summertime temperature broke 90F or thereabouts. Was really advertising the fact that, in the dog days of summer, Bluefield had some of the cooler weather in the general area.
    No, clearly some nice bits of Princeton (Jewel of the South, no less), but I was referring to the $50k houses as not being something you'd want

    Princeton WV is only about 90 minutes from Roanoke, too.
    And within commuting distance of Liberty University in Lynchburg.

    Even closer to Radford University, Radford VA which is a wee bit more liberal artsy than LU (to put it mildly) but no competition on the basketball court.
    To be clear, I quite like Appalachia, at least the natural beauty.
    Here in Scotland, gap years before heading off to Uni are not a thing. But when our middle lad and his best friend finished their Uni degrees they then decided to do just that before they settled down to finding a future real job. They then immediately set off to the US to walk the Appalachian Trail, they started in Georgia and completed it in five and half months meeting many new friends along the way. They quickly joined up with two American lads who like them had just finished Uni and built such a solid friendship that they have been over to visit us in Scotland.
    Hello, Fitalass! Long time no see on PB, good to read your comment.
    Good to see you too, I am back because I am following the Scottish Holyrood election closely.
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    Ref discussion on previous thread about poverty in WVA, I looked at the Zillow site for real estate in Princeton WVA, and Welch WVA, both in McDowell County. Houses available for under $50k. Not necessarily anything you'd want to live in ...

    You might be surprised. Princeton is (as I recall) pretty nice (nicer than Welch anyway). Up in the mountains close to the VA line.

    Nearby Bluefield (WV & VA) used to be famous back in the day, for an ice cream parlor that gave out free ice cream when the summertime temperature broke 90F or thereabouts. Was really advertising the fact that, in the dog days of summer, Bluefield had some of the cooler weather in the general area.
    No, clearly some nice bits of Princeton (Jewel of the South, no less), but I was referring to the $50k houses as not being something you'd want

    Princeton WV is only about 90 minutes from Roanoke, too.
    And within commuting distance of Liberty University in Lynchburg.

    Even closer to Radford University, Radford VA which is a wee bit more liberal artsy than LU (to put it mildly) but no competition on the basketball court.
    To be clear, I quite like Appalachia, at least the natural beauty.
    Here in Scotland, gap years before heading off to Uni are not a thing. But when our middle lad and his best friend finished their Uni degrees they then decided to do just that before they settled down to finding a future real job. They then immediately set off to the US to walk the Appalachian Trail, they started in Georgia and completed it in five and half months meeting many new friends along the way. They quickly joined up with two American lads who like them had just finished Uni and built such a solid friendship that they have been over to visit us in Scotland.
    Hello, Fitalass! Long time no see on PB, good to read your comment.
    Good to see you too, I am back because I am following the Scottish Holyrood election closely.
    After the Times YouGov and the Scotsmans Savanta ComRes last night which shows a real disparity in the polling, we are still waiting for the P&J/Dundee Courier Survation poll and an Ipsos More on the eve of the election.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,590
    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    Ref discussion on previous thread about poverty in WVA, I looked at the Zillow site for real estate in Princeton WVA, and Welch WVA, both in McDowell County. Houses available for under $50k. Not necessarily anything you'd want to live in ...

    You might be surprised. Princeton is (as I recall) pretty nice (nicer than Welch anyway). Up in the mountains close to the VA line.

    Nearby Bluefield (WV & VA) used to be famous back in the day, for an ice cream parlor that gave out free ice cream when the summertime temperature broke 90F or thereabouts. Was really advertising the fact that, in the dog days of summer, Bluefield had some of the cooler weather in the general area.
    No, clearly some nice bits of Princeton (Jewel of the South, no less), but I was referring to the $50k houses as not being something you'd want

    Princeton WV is only about 90 minutes from Roanoke, too.
    And within commuting distance of Liberty University in Lynchburg.

    Even closer to Radford University, Radford VA which is a wee bit more liberal artsy than LU (to put it mildly) but no competition on the basketball court.
    To be clear, I quite like Appalachia, at least the natural beauty.
    Here in Scotland, gap years before heading off to Uni are not a thing. But when our middle lad and his best friend finished their Uni degrees they then decided to do just that before they settled down to finding a future real job. They then immediately set off to the US to walk the Appalachian Trail, they started in Georgia and completed it in five and half months meeting many new friends along the way. They quickly joined up with two American lads who like them had just finished Uni and built such a solid friendship that they have been over to visit us in Scotland.
    Hello, Fitalass! Long time no see on PB, good to read your comment.
    Good to see you too, I am back because I am following the Scottish Holyrood election closely.
    After the Times YouGov and the Scotsmans Savanta ComRes last night which shows a real disparity in the polling, we are still waiting for the P&J/Dundee Courier Survation poll and an Ipsos More on the eve of the election.
    Personally will wait for the Real McCoy. But then I am NOT a gambler, least not with (my) money!
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,685
    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    Ref discussion on previous thread about poverty in WVA, I looked at the Zillow site for real estate in Princeton WVA, and Welch WVA, both in McDowell County. Houses available for under $50k. Not necessarily anything you'd want to live in ...

    You might be surprised. Princeton is (as I recall) pretty nice (nicer than Welch anyway). Up in the mountains close to the VA line.

    Nearby Bluefield (WV & VA) used to be famous back in the day, for an ice cream parlor that gave out free ice cream when the summertime temperature broke 90F or thereabouts. Was really advertising the fact that, in the dog days of summer, Bluefield had some of the cooler weather in the general area.
    No, clearly some nice bits of Princeton (Jewel of the South, no less), but I was referring to the $50k houses as not being something you'd want

    Princeton WV is only about 90 minutes from Roanoke, too.
    And within commuting distance of Liberty University in Lynchburg.

    Even closer to Radford University, Radford VA which is a wee bit more liberal artsy than LU (to put it mildly) but no competition on the basketball court.
    To be clear, I quite like Appalachia, at least the natural beauty.
    Here in Scotland, gap years before heading off to Uni are not a thing. But when our middle lad and his best friend finished their Uni degrees they then decided to do just that before they settled down to finding a future real job. They then immediately set off to the US to walk the Appalachian Trail, they started in Georgia and completed it in five and half months meeting many new friends along the way. They quickly joined up with two American lads who like them had just finished Uni and built such a solid friendship that they have been over to visit us in Scotland.
    Hello, Fitalass! Long time no see on PB, good to read your comment.
    Good to see you too, I am back because I am following the Scottish Holyrood election closely.
    After the Times YouGov and the Scotsmans Savanta ComRes last night which shows a real disparity in the polling, we are still waiting for the P&J/Dundee Courier Survation poll and an Ipsos More on the eve of the election.
    Hi Fitalass.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,639
    Brief thread on vaccines vs variants (vaccines are winning):

    [Some] people keep pointing to rising cases in places like Chile and Canada as evidence that the vaccines aren’t working.

    That’s completely contradicted by the data coming out of those countries

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1389617547935420423
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    Andy_JS said:

    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    Ref discussion on previous thread about poverty in WVA, I looked at the Zillow site for real estate in Princeton WVA, and Welch WVA, both in McDowell County. Houses available for under $50k. Not necessarily anything you'd want to live in ...

    You might be surprised. Princeton is (as I recall) pretty nice (nicer than Welch anyway). Up in the mountains close to the VA line.

    Nearby Bluefield (WV & VA) used to be famous back in the day, for an ice cream parlor that gave out free ice cream when the summertime temperature broke 90F or thereabouts. Was really advertising the fact that, in the dog days of summer, Bluefield had some of the cooler weather in the general area.
    No, clearly some nice bits of Princeton (Jewel of the South, no less), but I was referring to the $50k houses as not being something you'd want

    Princeton WV is only about 90 minutes from Roanoke, too.
    And within commuting distance of Liberty University in Lynchburg.

    Even closer to Radford University, Radford VA which is a wee bit more liberal artsy than LU (to put it mildly) but no competition on the basketball court.
    To be clear, I quite like Appalachia, at least the natural beauty.
    Here in Scotland, gap years before heading off to Uni are not a thing. But when our middle lad and his best friend finished their Uni degrees they then decided to do just that before they settled down to finding a future real job. They then immediately set off to the US to walk the Appalachian Trail, they started in Georgia and completed it in five and half months meeting many new friends along the way. They quickly joined up with two American lads who like them had just finished Uni and built such a solid friendship that they have been over to visit us in Scotland.
    Hello, Fitalass! Long time no see on PB, good to read your comment.
    Good to see you too, I am back because I am following the Scottish Holyrood election closely.
    After the Times YouGov and the Scotsmans Savanta ComRes last night which shows a real disparity in the polling, we are still waiting for the P&J/Dundee Courier Survation poll and an Ipsos More on the eve of the election.
    Hi Fitalass.
    Hi Andy, the big outstanding question, is MalcolmG still in fine fiesty fettle despite the Scottish polls?
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,359

    If Keir gets 260 seats in GE 2024 will LAB let him have another go in 2029???

    Yes. If they let Kinnock have another go after 1987 (after gaining about 40 seats) they'll let Starmer have another go (if he wants to) in 2028/29.
    Labour is useless at getting rid of failed leaders..they actually vote losers in ... eg...they even voted in the loons Brown and Corbyn.. Labour need a new "messiah" but there isn't one.
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,359
    Andy_JS said:

    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    Ref discussion on previous thread about poverty in WVA, I looked at the Zillow site for real estate in Princeton WVA, and Welch WVA, both in McDowell County. Houses available for under $50k. Not necessarily anything you'd want to live in ...

    You might be surprised. Princeton is (as I recall) pretty nice (nicer than Welch anyway). Up in the mountains close to the VA line.

    Nearby Bluefield (WV & VA) used to be famous back in the day, for an ice cream parlor that gave out free ice cream when the summertime temperature broke 90F or thereabouts. Was really advertising the fact that, in the dog days of summer, Bluefield had some of the cooler weather in the general area.
    No, clearly some nice bits of Princeton (Jewel of the South, no less), but I was referring to the $50k houses as not being something you'd want

    Princeton WV is only about 90 minutes from Roanoke, too.
    And within commuting distance of Liberty University in Lynchburg.

    Even closer to Radford University, Radford VA which is a wee bit more liberal artsy than LU (to put it mildly) but no competition on the basketball court.
    To be clear, I quite like Appalachia, at least the natural beauty.
    Here in Scotland, gap years before heading off to Uni are not a thing. But when our middle lad and his best friend finished their Uni degrees they then decided to do just that before they settled down to finding a future real job. They then immediately set off to the US to walk the Appalachian Trail, they started in Georgia and completed it in five and half months meeting many new friends along the way. They quickly joined up with two American lads who like them had just finished Uni and built such a solid friendship that they have been over to visit us in Scotland.
    Hello, Fitalass! Long time no see on PB, good to read your comment.
    Good to see you too, I am back because I am following the Scottish Holyrood election closely.
    After the Times YouGov and the Scotsmans Savanta ComRes last night which shows a real disparity in the polling, we are still waiting for the P&J/Dundee Courier Survation poll and an Ipsos More on the eve of the election.
    Hi Fitalass.
    Ditto welcome back.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    fitalass said:

    Andy_JS said:

    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    Ref discussion on previous thread about poverty in WVA, I looked at the Zillow site for real estate in Princeton WVA, and Welch WVA, both in McDowell County. Houses available for under $50k. Not necessarily anything you'd want to live in ...

    You might be surprised. Princeton is (as I recall) pretty nice (nicer than Welch anyway). Up in the mountains close to the VA line.

    Nearby Bluefield (WV & VA) used to be famous back in the day, for an ice cream parlor that gave out free ice cream when the summertime temperature broke 90F or thereabouts. Was really advertising the fact that, in the dog days of summer, Bluefield had some of the cooler weather in the general area.
    No, clearly some nice bits of Princeton (Jewel of the South, no less), but I was referring to the $50k houses as not being something you'd want

    Princeton WV is only about 90 minutes from Roanoke, too.
    And within commuting distance of Liberty University in Lynchburg.

    Even closer to Radford University, Radford VA which is a wee bit more liberal artsy than LU (to put it mildly) but no competition on the basketball court.
    To be clear, I quite like Appalachia, at least the natural beauty.
    Here in Scotland, gap years before heading off to Uni are not a thing. But when our middle lad and his best friend finished their Uni degrees they then decided to do just that before they settled down to finding a future real job. They then immediately set off to the US to walk the Appalachian Trail, they started in Georgia and completed it in five and half months meeting many new friends along the way. They quickly joined up with two American lads who like them had just finished Uni and built such a solid friendship that they have been over to visit us in Scotland.
    Hello, Fitalass! Long time no see on PB, good to read your comment.
    Good to see you too, I am back because I am following the Scottish Holyrood election closely.
    After the Times YouGov and the Scotsmans Savanta ComRes last night which shows a real disparity in the polling, we are still waiting for the P&J/Dundee Courier Survation poll and an Ipsos More on the eve of the election.
    Hi Fitalass.
    Hi Andy, the big outstanding question, is MalcolmG still in fine fiesty fettle despite the Scottish polls?
    He's bearing up with lashings of turnip wine!
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,311
    fitalass said:

    Andy_JS said:

    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    Ref discussion on previous thread about poverty in WVA, I looked at the Zillow site for real estate in Princeton WVA, and Welch WVA, both in McDowell County. Houses available for under $50k. Not necessarily anything you'd want to live in ...

    You might be surprised. Princeton is (as I recall) pretty nice (nicer than Welch anyway). Up in the mountains close to the VA line.

    Nearby Bluefield (WV & VA) used to be famous back in the day, for an ice cream parlor that gave out free ice cream when the summertime temperature broke 90F or thereabouts. Was really advertising the fact that, in the dog days of summer, Bluefield had some of the cooler weather in the general area.
    No, clearly some nice bits of Princeton (Jewel of the South, no less), but I was referring to the $50k houses as not being something you'd want

    Princeton WV is only about 90 minutes from Roanoke, too.
    And within commuting distance of Liberty University in Lynchburg.

    Even closer to Radford University, Radford VA which is a wee bit more liberal artsy than LU (to put it mildly) but no competition on the basketball court.
    To be clear, I quite like Appalachia, at least the natural beauty.
    Here in Scotland, gap years before heading off to Uni are not a thing. But when our middle lad and his best friend finished their Uni degrees they then decided to do just that before they settled down to finding a future real job. They then immediately set off to the US to walk the Appalachian Trail, they started in Georgia and completed it in five and half months meeting many new friends along the way. They quickly joined up with two American lads who like them had just finished Uni and built such a solid friendship that they have been over to visit us in Scotland.
    Hello, Fitalass! Long time no see on PB, good to read your comment.
    Good to see you too, I am back because I am following the Scottish Holyrood election closely.
    After the Times YouGov and the Scotsmans Savanta ComRes last night which shows a real disparity in the polling, we are still waiting for the P&J/Dundee Courier Survation poll and an Ipsos More on the eve of the election.
    Hi Fitalass.
    Hi Andy, the big outstanding question, is MalcolmG still in fine fiesty fettle despite the Scottish polls?
    Malcolm is an Alba supporter and seems ever more disillusioned with the current leadership of the SNP. I don't think that he is alone and I suspect that the wide discrepancies in the polling reflect this ambiguity on the part of many who want independence but have lost all faith in Nicola. How many will grit their teeth and vote for her anyway and how many will not be inclined to bother? The outcome of the Scottish election may well turn on the answer to that question.
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279

    Andy_JS said:

    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    Ref discussion on previous thread about poverty in WVA, I looked at the Zillow site for real estate in Princeton WVA, and Welch WVA, both in McDowell County. Houses available for under $50k. Not necessarily anything you'd want to live in ...

    You might be surprised. Princeton is (as I recall) pretty nice (nicer than Welch anyway). Up in the mountains close to the VA line.

    Nearby Bluefield (WV & VA) used to be famous back in the day, for an ice cream parlor that gave out free ice cream when the summertime temperature broke 90F or thereabouts. Was really advertising the fact that, in the dog days of summer, Bluefield had some of the cooler weather in the general area.
    No, clearly some nice bits of Princeton (Jewel of the South, no less), but I was referring to the $50k houses as not being something you'd want

    Princeton WV is only about 90 minutes from Roanoke, too.
    And within commuting distance of Liberty University in Lynchburg.

    Even closer to Radford University, Radford VA which is a wee bit more liberal artsy than LU (to put it mildly) but no competition on the basketball court.
    To be clear, I quite like Appalachia, at least the natural beauty.
    Here in Scotland, gap years before heading off to Uni are not a thing. But when our middle lad and his best friend finished their Uni degrees they then decided to do just that before they settled down to finding a future real job. They then immediately set off to the US to walk the Appalachian Trail, they started in Georgia and completed it in five and half months meeting many new friends along the way. They quickly joined up with two American lads who like them had just finished Uni and built such a solid friendship that they have been over to visit us in Scotland.
    Hello, Fitalass! Long time no see on PB, good to read your comment.
    Good to see you too, I am back because I am following the Scottish Holyrood election closely.
    After the Times YouGov and the Scotsmans Savanta ComRes last night which shows a real disparity in the polling, we are still waiting for the P&J/Dundee Courier Survation poll and an Ipsos More on the eve of the election.
    Hi Fitalass.
    Ditto welcome back.
    Hi Squareroot2, good to see some familiar posters on PB.
  • Options
    swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    DavidL said:

    fitalass said:

    Andy_JS said:

    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    Ref discussion on previous thread about poverty in WVA, I looked at the Zillow site for real estate in Princeton WVA, and Welch WVA, both in McDowell County. Houses available for under $50k. Not necessarily anything you'd want to live in ...

    You might be surprised. Princeton is (as I recall) pretty nice (nicer than Welch anyway). Up in the mountains close to the VA line.

    Nearby Bluefield (WV & VA) used to be famous back in the day, for an ice cream parlor that gave out free ice cream when the summertime temperature broke 90F or thereabouts. Was really advertising the fact that, in the dog days of summer, Bluefield had some of the cooler weather in the general area.
    No, clearly some nice bits of Princeton (Jewel of the South, no less), but I was referring to the $50k houses as not being something you'd want

    Princeton WV is only about 90 minutes from Roanoke, too.
    And within commuting distance of Liberty University in Lynchburg.

    Even closer to Radford University, Radford VA which is a wee bit more liberal artsy than LU (to put it mildly) but no competition on the basketball court.
    To be clear, I quite like Appalachia, at least the natural beauty.
    Here in Scotland, gap years before heading off to Uni are not a thing. But when our middle lad and his best friend finished their Uni degrees they then decided to do just that before they settled down to finding a future real job. They then immediately set off to the US to walk the Appalachian Trail, they started in Georgia and completed it in five and half months meeting many new friends along the way. They quickly joined up with two American lads who like them had just finished Uni and built such a solid friendship that they have been over to visit us in Scotland.
    Hello, Fitalass! Long time no see on PB, good to read your comment.
    Good to see you too, I am back because I am following the Scottish Holyrood election closely.
    After the Times YouGov and the Scotsmans Savanta ComRes last night which shows a real disparity in the polling, we are still waiting for the P&J/Dundee Courier Survation poll and an Ipsos More on the eve of the election.
    Hi Fitalass.
    Hi Andy, the big outstanding question, is MalcolmG still in fine fiesty fettle despite the Scottish polls?
    Malcolm is an Alba supporter and seems ever more disillusioned with the current leadership of the SNP. I don't think that he is alone and I suspect that the wide discrepancies in the polling reflect this ambiguity on the part of many who want independence but have lost all faith in Nicola. How many will grit their teeth and vote for her anyway and how many will not be inclined to bother? The outcome of the Scottish election may well turn on the answer to that question.
    Alba is interesting - what do our Scottish friends feel the medium term aim of Alba is.... will it be around in 12 -24 months time as a repository for unhappy SNP voters or is it just a personal vehicle for Mr A Salmond esq. A genuine question... and one that may be answered by Saturday if they have a bad night.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    If Keir gets 260 seats in GE 2024 will LAB let him have another go in 2029???

    Yes. If they let Kinnock have another go after 1987 (after gaining about 40 seats) they'll let Starmer have another go (if he wants to) in 2028/29.
    Labour is useless at getting rid of failed leaders..they actually vote losers in ... eg...they even voted in the loons Brown and Corbyn.. Labour need a new "messiah" but there isn't one.
    Labour would have let IDS lose two elections.....
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,311

    DavidL said:

    fitalass said:

    Andy_JS said:

    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    Ref discussion on previous thread about poverty in WVA, I looked at the Zillow site for real estate in Princeton WVA, and Welch WVA, both in McDowell County. Houses available for under $50k. Not necessarily anything you'd want to live in ...

    You might be surprised. Princeton is (as I recall) pretty nice (nicer than Welch anyway). Up in the mountains close to the VA line.

    Nearby Bluefield (WV & VA) used to be famous back in the day, for an ice cream parlor that gave out free ice cream when the summertime temperature broke 90F or thereabouts. Was really advertising the fact that, in the dog days of summer, Bluefield had some of the cooler weather in the general area.
    No, clearly some nice bits of Princeton (Jewel of the South, no less), but I was referring to the $50k houses as not being something you'd want

    Princeton WV is only about 90 minutes from Roanoke, too.
    And within commuting distance of Liberty University in Lynchburg.

    Even closer to Radford University, Radford VA which is a wee bit more liberal artsy than LU (to put it mildly) but no competition on the basketball court.
    To be clear, I quite like Appalachia, at least the natural beauty.
    Here in Scotland, gap years before heading off to Uni are not a thing. But when our middle lad and his best friend finished their Uni degrees they then decided to do just that before they settled down to finding a future real job. They then immediately set off to the US to walk the Appalachian Trail, they started in Georgia and completed it in five and half months meeting many new friends along the way. They quickly joined up with two American lads who like them had just finished Uni and built such a solid friendship that they have been over to visit us in Scotland.
    Hello, Fitalass! Long time no see on PB, good to read your comment.
    Good to see you too, I am back because I am following the Scottish Holyrood election closely.
    After the Times YouGov and the Scotsmans Savanta ComRes last night which shows a real disparity in the polling, we are still waiting for the P&J/Dundee Courier Survation poll and an Ipsos More on the eve of the election.
    Hi Fitalass.
    Hi Andy, the big outstanding question, is MalcolmG still in fine fiesty fettle despite the Scottish polls?
    Malcolm is an Alba supporter and seems ever more disillusioned with the current leadership of the SNP. I don't think that he is alone and I suspect that the wide discrepancies in the polling reflect this ambiguity on the part of many who want independence but have lost all faith in Nicola. How many will grit their teeth and vote for her anyway and how many will not be inclined to bother? The outcome of the Scottish election may well turn on the answer to that question.
    Alba is interesting - what do our Scottish friends feel the medium term aim of Alba is.... will it be around in 12 -24 months time as a repository for unhappy SNP voters or is it just a personal vehicle for Mr A Salmond esq. A genuine question... and one that may be answered by Saturday if they have a bad night.
    I have been very surprised by how little impact that they have had but unity of purpose has been the SNP secret weapon over the last 20 years with people willing to bury any list of differences for the greater good and that discipline has discouraged support for Alba. Everything turns on how they do tomorrow. If they get no MSPs they will probably cease to exist. If they get 4-5 they may well hold the balance of power in the Scottish Parliament and will be major players on the stage.

    My guess, FWIW, is that they will end up in a bit of no mans land between those two with a couple of MSPs but little say in how the Parliament operates. Whether that is enough to keep them going remains to be seen.
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,359
    edited May 2021
    fitalass said:

    Andy_JS said:

    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    Ref discussion on previous thread about poverty in WVA, I looked at the Zillow site for real estate in Princeton WVA, and Welch WVA, both in McDowell County. Houses available for under $50k. Not necessarily anything you'd want to live in ...

    You might be surprised. Princeton is (as I recall) pretty nice (nicer than Welch anyway). Up in the mountains close to the VA line.

    Nearby Bluefield (WV & VA) used to be famous back in the day, for an ice cream parlor that gave out free ice cream when the summertime temperature broke 90F or thereabouts. Was really advertising the fact that, in the dog days of summer, Bluefield had some of the cooler weather in the general area.
    No, clearly some nice bits of Princeton (Jewel of the South, no less), but I was referring to the $50k houses as not being something you'd want

    Princeton WV is only about 90 minutes from Roanoke, too.
    And within commuting distance of Liberty University in Lynchburg.

    Even closer to Radford University, Radford VA which is a wee bit more liberal artsy than LU (to put it mildly) but no competition on the basketball court.
    To be clear, I quite like Appalachia, at least the natural beauty.
    Here in Scotland, gap years before heading off to Uni are not a thing. But when our middle lad and his best friend finished their Uni degrees they then decided to do just that before they settled down to finding a future real job. They then immediately set off to the US to walk the Appalachian Trail, they started in Georgia and completed it in five and half months meeting many new friends along the way. They quickly joined up with two American lads who like them had just finished Uni and built such a solid friendship that they have been over to visit us in Scotland.
    Hello, Fitalass! Long time no see on PB, good to read your comment.
    Good to see you too, I am back because I am following the Scottish Holyrood election closely.
    After the Times YouGov and the Scotsmans Savanta ComRes last night which shows a real disparity in the polling, we are still waiting for the P&J/Dundee Courier Survation poll and an Ipsos More on the eve of the election.
    Hi Fitalass.
    Ditto welcome back.
    Hi Squareroot2, good to see some familiar posters on PB.
    I disappeared or barely posted for some considerable while as I got really disillusioned with politics but I find the left's loathing and with no real plan as to ousting Boris bar arguing about wallpaper fascinating. The left is irrelevant and impotent.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Chameleon said:

    Tories about to win WMids and Hartlepool/Teesides by larger amounts than Labour are going to win London by.

    I simply can't reconcile national polling with local polling, unless the Tory SE support has evaporated.

    Do they names parties in the local polls?

    I can see Boris as next PM / Tories is embarrassing to say “yes” to last week but “Andy Street” or “Ben H” might be ok
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,003
    Good morning everyone. Bright and sunny here this morning.

    A pleasure to see old acquaintances return.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,296

    If Keir gets 260 seats in GE 2024 will LAB let him have another go in 2029???

    Yes. If they let Kinnock have another go after 1987 (after gaining about 40 seats) they'll let Starmer have another go (if he wants to) in 2028/29.
    Labour is useless at getting rid of failed leaders..they actually vote losers in ... eg...they even voted in the loons Brown and Corbyn.. Labour need a new "messiah" but there isn't one.
    Labour would have let IDS lose two elections.....
    The issue with Corbyn was not that there was no move to get rid of him but that Labour’s rules meant it failed. If he had been a Tory, he would have been dismissed by that VONC the PLP held (which Corbyn lost by a far wider margin than Duncan Smith lost his) and somebody sane and not a racist could have been elected. In fact, it’s unlikely Corbyn’s overt racism would have cut through had he been removed in 2016. He’d have been a comic footnote, quickly forgotten.

    And Labour would likely have conceded an overall majority to May in probably 2019, albeit she would have been less likely to stand on a hard right platform, but been much better placed to win next time.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,296

    Good morning everyone. Bright and sunny here this morning.

    A pleasure to see old acquaintances return.

    The sun, or the posters?
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,359
    DavidL said:

    fitalass said:

    Andy_JS said:

    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    Ref discussion on previous thread about poverty in WVA, I looked at the Zillow site for real estate in Princeton WVA, and Welch WVA, both in McDowell County. Houses available for under $50k. Not necessarily anything you'd want to live in ...

    You might be surprised. Princeton is (as I recall) pretty nice (nicer than Welch anyway). Up in the mountains close to the VA line.

    Nearby Bluefield (WV & VA) used to be famous back in the day, for an ice cream parlor that gave out free ice cream when the summertime temperature broke 90F or thereabouts. Was really advertising the fact that, in the dog days of summer, Bluefield had some of the cooler weather in the general area.
    No, clearly some nice bits of Princeton (Jewel of the South, no less), but I was referring to the $50k houses as not being something you'd want

    Princeton WV is only about 90 minutes from Roanoke, too.
    And within commuting distance of Liberty University in Lynchburg.

    Even closer to Radford University, Radford VA which is a wee bit more liberal artsy than LU (to put it mildly) but no competition on the basketball court.
    To be clear, I quite like Appalachia, at least the natural beauty.
    Here in Scotland, gap years before heading off to Uni are not a thing. But when our middle lad and his best friend finished their Uni degrees they then decided to do just that before they settled down to finding a future real job. They then immediately set off to the US to walk the Appalachian Trail, they started in Georgia and completed it in five and half months meeting many new friends along the way. They quickly joined up with two American lads who like them had just finished Uni and built such a solid friendship that they have been over to visit us in Scotland.
    Hello, Fitalass! Long time no see on PB, good to read your comment.
    Good to see you too, I am back because I am following the Scottish Holyrood election closely.
    After the Times YouGov and the Scotsmans Savanta ComRes last night which shows a real disparity in the polling, we are still waiting for the P&J/Dundee Courier Survation poll and an Ipsos More on the eve of the election.
    Hi Fitalass.
    Ditto welcome back.
    Hi Squareroot2, good to see some familiar posters on PB.
    I disappeared or barely posted for some considerable while as I got really disillusioned with politics but I find the left's loathing and with no real plan as to ousting Boris bar arguing about wallpaper fascinating. The left is irrelevant and impotent.
    I don't always agree with Rentoul's take but the observation quoted in the thread header that Labour want to continue campaigning against the nasty Tory party that they know they can beat rather than seeking to address the one they are facing now is a real hammer and nail point.

    We saw very much the same thing in Scotland when they continued to campaign against such a fantastical Tory party and neglected to engage with the SNP who proceeded to pretty much wipe them off the face of the earth with barely a shot in anger in reply.

    The difference between the Tory party of s28 and the Tory party that passed the Gay Marriage Act is plain for all to see except those who don't want to see it. That minority is not very good at persuading others though, no matter how hard they try to create some equivalence.
    There is too much hatred for Labour too see clearly and too much infighting. Unless Boris is brought down by a scandal, I forsee him winning again but being ousted like Blair was in time for 2029 GE.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,579
    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    TimT said:

    Ref discussion on previous thread about poverty in WVA, I looked at the Zillow site for real estate in Princeton WVA, and Welch WVA, both in McDowell County. Houses available for under $50k. Not necessarily anything you'd want to live in ...

    On Rightmove there are terraced houses starting at £5000 in Hartlepool.
    Auctions with a starting price of £5000, from memory. Not the same thing...
    @Foxy can you post a link on this. The lowest prices seem to be more like 50k for the lower end liveable 2 bed terraced.

    This is the only 5k I can find, which is a come and get me auction EPC F small terrace, which looks as though it needs a full refurb, which will be several 10s of K.

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/79826145#/
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,296

    DavidL said:

    fitalass said:

    Andy_JS said:

    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    Ref discussion on previous thread about poverty in WVA, I looked at the Zillow site for real estate in Princeton WVA, and Welch WVA, both in McDowell County. Houses available for under $50k. Not necessarily anything you'd want to live in ...

    You might be surprised. Princeton is (as I recall) pretty nice (nicer than Welch anyway). Up in the mountains close to the VA line.

    Nearby Bluefield (WV & VA) used to be famous back in the day, for an ice cream parlor that gave out free ice cream when the summertime temperature broke 90F or thereabouts. Was really advertising the fact that, in the dog days of summer, Bluefield had some of the cooler weather in the general area.
    No, clearly some nice bits of Princeton (Jewel of the South, no less), but I was referring to the $50k houses as not being something you'd want

    Princeton WV is only about 90 minutes from Roanoke, too.
    And within commuting distance of Liberty University in Lynchburg.

    Even closer to Radford University, Radford VA which is a wee bit more liberal artsy than LU (to put it mildly) but no competition on the basketball court.
    To be clear, I quite like Appalachia, at least the natural beauty.
    Here in Scotland, gap years before heading off to Uni are not a thing. But when our middle lad and his best friend finished their Uni degrees they then decided to do just that before they settled down to finding a future real job. They then immediately set off to the US to walk the Appalachian Trail, they started in Georgia and completed it in five and half months meeting many new friends along the way. They quickly joined up with two American lads who like them had just finished Uni and built such a solid friendship that they have been over to visit us in Scotland.
    Hello, Fitalass! Long time no see on PB, good to read your comment.
    Good to see you too, I am back because I am following the Scottish Holyrood election closely.
    After the Times YouGov and the Scotsmans Savanta ComRes last night which shows a real disparity in the polling, we are still waiting for the P&J/Dundee Courier Survation poll and an Ipsos More on the eve of the election.
    Hi Fitalass.
    Ditto welcome back.
    Hi Squareroot2, good to see some familiar posters on PB.
    I disappeared or barely posted for some considerable while as I got really disillusioned with politics but I find the left's loathing and with no real plan as to ousting Boris bar arguing about wallpaper fascinating. The left is irrelevant and impotent.
    I don't always agree with Rentoul's take but the observation quoted in the thread header that Labour want to continue campaigning against the nasty Tory party that they know they can beat rather than seeking to address the one they are facing now is a real hammer and nail point.

    We saw very much the same thing in Scotland when they continued to campaign against such a fantastical Tory party and neglected to engage with the SNP who proceeded to pretty much wipe them off the face of the earth with barely a shot in anger in reply.

    The difference between the Tory party of s28 and the Tory party that passed the Gay Marriage Act is plain for all to see except those who don't want to see it. That minority is not very good at persuading others though, no matter how hard they try to create some equivalence.
    There is too much hatred for Labour too see clearly and too much infighting. Unless Boris is brought down by a scandal, I forsee him winning again but being ousted like Blair was in time for 2029 GE.
    ‘Our problem was Labour campaigned not on Socialism but on fear - fear of unemployment, of war, of food shortages. Next time, we must make sure we fight them not on fear, but on Socialism. Then we can win.’

    Who said that and when?
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,003
    ydoethur said:

    Good morning everyone. Bright and sunny here this morning.

    A pleasure to see old acquaintances return.

    The sun, or the posters?
    The posters, ydoethur. The sun's a frequent visitor to these parts.

    That's the celestial body not the Murdoch title, of course!
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    ydoethur said:

    If Keir gets 260 seats in GE 2024 will LAB let him have another go in 2029???

    Yes. If they let Kinnock have another go after 1987 (after gaining about 40 seats) they'll let Starmer have another go (if he wants to) in 2028/29.
    Labour is useless at getting rid of failed leaders..they actually vote losers in ... eg...they even voted in the loons Brown and Corbyn.. Labour need a new "messiah" but there isn't one.
    Labour would have let IDS lose two elections.....
    The issue with Corbyn was not that there was no move to get rid of him but that Labour’s rules meant it failed. If he had been a Tory, he would have been dismissed by that VONC the PLP held (which Corbyn lost by a far wider margin than Duncan Smith lost his) and somebody sane and not a racist could have been elected. In fact, it’s unlikely Corbyn’s overt racism would have cut through had he been removed in 2016. He’d have been a comic footnote, quickly forgotten.

    And Labour would likely have conceded an overall majority to May in probably 2019, albeit she would have been less likely to stand on a hard right platform, but been much better placed to win next time.
    On the other hand, she would STILL be trying to get her Brexit Bill through....
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,429
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    fitalass said:

    Andy_JS said:

    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    Ref discussion on previous thread about poverty in WVA, I looked at the Zillow site for real estate in Princeton WVA, and Welch WVA, both in McDowell County. Houses available for under $50k. Not necessarily anything you'd want to live in ...

    You might be surprised. Princeton is (as I recall) pretty nice (nicer than Welch anyway). Up in the mountains close to the VA line.

    Nearby Bluefield (WV & VA) used to be famous back in the day, for an ice cream parlor that gave out free ice cream when the summertime temperature broke 90F or thereabouts. Was really advertising the fact that, in the dog days of summer, Bluefield had some of the cooler weather in the general area.
    No, clearly some nice bits of Princeton (Jewel of the South, no less), but I was referring to the $50k houses as not being something you'd want

    Princeton WV is only about 90 minutes from Roanoke, too.
    And within commuting distance of Liberty University in Lynchburg.

    Even closer to Radford University, Radford VA which is a wee bit more liberal artsy than LU (to put it mildly) but no competition on the basketball court.
    To be clear, I quite like Appalachia, at least the natural beauty.
    Here in Scotland, gap years before heading off to Uni are not a thing. But when our middle lad and his best friend finished their Uni degrees they then decided to do just that before they settled down to finding a future real job. They then immediately set off to the US to walk the Appalachian Trail, they started in Georgia and completed it in five and half months meeting many new friends along the way. They quickly joined up with two American lads who like them had just finished Uni and built such a solid friendship that they have been over to visit us in Scotland.
    Hello, Fitalass! Long time no see on PB, good to read your comment.
    Good to see you too, I am back because I am following the Scottish Holyrood election closely.
    After the Times YouGov and the Scotsmans Savanta ComRes last night which shows a real disparity in the polling, we are still waiting for the P&J/Dundee Courier Survation poll and an Ipsos More on the eve of the election.
    Hi Fitalass.
    Ditto welcome back.
    Hi Squareroot2, good to see some familiar posters on PB.
    I disappeared or barely posted for some considerable while as I got really disillusioned with politics but I find the left's loathing and with no real plan as to ousting Boris bar arguing about wallpaper fascinating. The left is irrelevant and impotent.
    I don't always agree with Rentoul's take but the observation quoted in the thread header that Labour want to continue campaigning against the nasty Tory party that they know they can beat rather than seeking to address the one they are facing now is a real hammer and nail point.

    We saw very much the same thing in Scotland when they continued to campaign against such a fantastical Tory party and neglected to engage with the SNP who proceeded to pretty much wipe them off the face of the earth with barely a shot in anger in reply.

    The difference between the Tory party of s28 and the Tory party that passed the Gay Marriage Act is plain for all to see except those who don't want to see it. That minority is not very good at persuading others though, no matter how hard they try to create some equivalence.
    There is too much hatred for Labour too see clearly and too much infighting. Unless Boris is brought down by a scandal, I forsee him winning again but being ousted like Blair was in time for 2029 GE.
    ‘Our problem was Labour campaigned not on Socialism but on fear - fear of unemployment, of war, of food shortages. Next time, we must make sure we fight them not on fear, but on Socialism. Then we can win.’

    Who said that and when?
    Given the number of mentions he has had already, Trotsky?
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,579
    Thank-you for the piece.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,193
    Nigelb said:

    Brief thread on vaccines vs variants (vaccines are winning):

    [Some] people keep pointing to rising cases in places like Chile and Canada as evidence that the vaccines aren’t working.

    That’s completely contradicted by the data coming out of those countries

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1389617547935420423

    Interesting thread, especially on Chile. Less informed commentary was saying the problems in Chile and Uruguay is down to them using Sinovac rather than AZ or Moderna.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,316
    edited May 2021
    I will no doubt repeat this point when @TheJezziah gets on but as regards Jezza's electability. During the Lab leadership contest my local Lab MP asked me, as a then Tory activist, who I would want as Lab leader.

    I said Jezza.

    She was quite mocking and dismissive (she was a Jezza fan). But I was right and so were the £3-ers.

    Whatever the relative vote shares, Jezza lead the Labour Party to it's worst defeat in eons and delivered an 80-seat Cons majority. Job done.

    As for SKS' electability, we shall see.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,290
    The link for getting free government Lateral Flow tests:

    https://www.gov.uk/order-coronavirus-rapid-lateral-flow-tests
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503

    Speaking of Trots, we have one on the Seattle City Council, Ksharma Sawant who is a member of Socialist Alternative, an offshoot of Militant.

    Interesting, the local press, politicos & pundits persist in branding her (in a good way) as a Socialist. When she is overtly a Communist of the Trotskyist persuasion.

    This is because a) calling someone a Commie is considered McCarthyism, even when they affirm they are a Commie; and b) modern journalists, etc are too pig-ignorant to have ever heard of Leon Trotsky.

    Idle anecdote to round out the evening: my grandfather knew Trotsky. My granddad was a thoroughly apolitical civil lawyer in Moscow during the revolution; an affable man, he got on with everyone (and very much fancied Alexandra Kollantai, "the most fascinating woman I ever met" - not sure how my grandmother felt about that) but steered clear of joining any factions. When two policemen came round to arrest him for interrogation, he persuaded them to spend the night at his home drinking vodka and playing cards, so they all arrived at the interrogators next morning in jovial mood with his captors confirming he was a good fellow; after perfunctory questioning he was released.

    The family could see that Tsarism was rotten so they weren't against the revolution, but the narrowing of tolerated opinion (you gradually had to be for the government, being amiably neutral wasn't enough) made them migrate in the mid-20s, first to Gdansk and then mostly to Britain. My grandfather decided the future was far away from Europe and its wars, so learned Spanish and moved to Mexico. He was then irritated to find Trotsky turning up and renewing the acquaintance (not many Russians in Mexico at the time, I expect) - the whole point was to get aware from European politics, so he politely declined Trotsky's attempts to socialise. (Perhaps just as well for his good health, in view of subsequent events.)

    The family was supposed to follow him once he'd got a job, but war then intervened and stopped all civilian traffic, and by the time the war ended his wife was settled in London and the separation became permanent (hence, in due course, me).
    What a great story.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,579
    Is @CarlottaVance around this morning?

    I'm interest in fishing in Jersey following this Junior French Minister deciding to provide a mini-me Vladimir performance. I assume that is just normal posturing.

    The value of electricity to Jersey alone is somewhere north of £100m a year to France, so I really don't think they will.

    Perhaps it is time that Jersey went into solar and tidal a touch more heavily :-)

    But I'm interested why Channel Islands have not declared a 200 mile Exclusive Economic Zone, or whether it for some strange historical reason not possible?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,296

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    fitalass said:

    Andy_JS said:

    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    Ref discussion on previous thread about poverty in WVA, I looked at the Zillow site for real estate in Princeton WVA, and Welch WVA, both in McDowell County. Houses available for under $50k. Not necessarily anything you'd want to live in ...

    You might be surprised. Princeton is (as I recall) pretty nice (nicer than Welch anyway). Up in the mountains close to the VA line.

    Nearby Bluefield (WV & VA) used to be famous back in the day, for an ice cream parlor that gave out free ice cream when the summertime temperature broke 90F or thereabouts. Was really advertising the fact that, in the dog days of summer, Bluefield had some of the cooler weather in the general area.
    No, clearly some nice bits of Princeton (Jewel of the South, no less), but I was referring to the $50k houses as not being something you'd want

    Princeton WV is only about 90 minutes from Roanoke, too.
    And within commuting distance of Liberty University in Lynchburg.

    Even closer to Radford University, Radford VA which is a wee bit more liberal artsy than LU (to put it mildly) but no competition on the basketball court.
    To be clear, I quite like Appalachia, at least the natural beauty.
    Here in Scotland, gap years before heading off to Uni are not a thing. But when our middle lad and his best friend finished their Uni degrees they then decided to do just that before they settled down to finding a future real job. They then immediately set off to the US to walk the Appalachian Trail, they started in Georgia and completed it in five and half months meeting many new friends along the way. They quickly joined up with two American lads who like them had just finished Uni and built such a solid friendship that they have been over to visit us in Scotland.
    Hello, Fitalass! Long time no see on PB, good to read your comment.
    Good to see you too, I am back because I am following the Scottish Holyrood election closely.
    After the Times YouGov and the Scotsmans Savanta ComRes last night which shows a real disparity in the polling, we are still waiting for the P&J/Dundee Courier Survation poll and an Ipsos More on the eve of the election.
    Hi Fitalass.
    Ditto welcome back.
    Hi Squareroot2, good to see some familiar posters on PB.
    I disappeared or barely posted for some considerable while as I got really disillusioned with politics but I find the left's loathing and with no real plan as to ousting Boris bar arguing about wallpaper fascinating. The left is irrelevant and impotent.
    I don't always agree with Rentoul's take but the observation quoted in the thread header that Labour want to continue campaigning against the nasty Tory party that they know they can beat rather than seeking to address the one they are facing now is a real hammer and nail point.

    We saw very much the same thing in Scotland when they continued to campaign against such a fantastical Tory party and neglected to engage with the SNP who proceeded to pretty much wipe them off the face of the earth with barely a shot in anger in reply.

    The difference between the Tory party of s28 and the Tory party that passed the Gay Marriage Act is plain for all to see except those who don't want to see it. That minority is not very good at persuading others though, no matter how hard they try to create some equivalence.
    There is too much hatred for Labour too see clearly and too much infighting. Unless Boris is brought down by a scandal, I forsee him winning again but being ousted like Blair was in time for 2029 GE.
    ‘Our problem was Labour campaigned not on Socialism but on fear - fear of unemployment, of war, of food shortages. Next time, we must make sure we fight them not on fear, but on Socialism. Then we can win.’

    Who said that and when?
    Given the number of mentions he has had already, Trotsky?
    I think the person who said it would have found that quite funny.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,429
    edited May 2021

    ydoethur said:

    If Keir gets 260 seats in GE 2024 will LAB let him have another go in 2029???

    Yes. If they let Kinnock have another go after 1987 (after gaining about 40 seats) they'll let Starmer have another go (if he wants to) in 2028/29.
    Labour is useless at getting rid of failed leaders..they actually vote losers in ... eg...they even voted in the loons Brown and Corbyn.. Labour need a new "messiah" but there isn't one.
    Labour would have let IDS lose two elections.....
    The issue with Corbyn was not that there was no move to get rid of him but that Labour’s rules meant it failed. If he had been a Tory, he would have been dismissed by that VONC the PLP held (which Corbyn lost by a far wider margin than Duncan Smith lost his) and somebody sane and not a racist could have been elected. In fact, it’s unlikely Corbyn’s overt racism would have cut through had he been removed in 2016. He’d have been a comic footnote, quickly forgotten.

    And Labour would likely have conceded an overall majority to May in probably 2019, albeit she would have been less likely to stand on a hard right platform, but been much better placed to win next time.
    On the other hand, she would STILL be trying to get her Brexit Bill through....
    Theresa May, and the 1922 banging the desks for her after the Conservative majority went missing in 2017, is surely some sort of counter-argument against the clear-minded ruthlessness of Conservative MPs. As is their having elected her in the first place, along with losers like Hague, IDS and Howard. And since IDS's Conservatives scored well at the Locals and Howard was a no-show at the general election, they'd probably have done better to stick with IDS.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited May 2021
    Having mostly stayed out of the Holyrood betting I am minded to back No-SNP majority given the Comres. It means the polling spread is 42-52% for the SNP on the list. That puts the polling midpoint at exactly the level where the SNP would just miss out on smashing it on the Constituencies which they need to do to get a majority.

    Only the GOLD STANDARD Ipsos Mori having a constituency vote of over 50% would stay my hand.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    TOPPING said:

    I will no doubt repeat this point when @TheJezziah gets on but as regards Jezza's electability. During the Lab leadership contest my local Lab MP asked me, as a then Tory activist, who I would want as Lab leader.

    I said Jezza.

    She was quite mocking and dismissive (she was a Jezza fan). But I was right and so were the £3-ers.

    Whatever the relative vote shares, Jezza lead the Labour Party to it's worst defeat in eons and delivered an 80-seat Cons majority. Job done.

    As for SKS' electability, we shall see.

    Letting your enemy choose your leader was always a bold plan! It would be like Labour lumbering the Tories with John Redwood.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,290
    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    Ref discussion on previous thread about poverty in WVA, I looked at the Zillow site for real estate in Princeton WVA, and Welch WVA, both in McDowell County. Houses available for under $50k. Not necessarily anything you'd want to live in ...

    You might be surprised. Princeton is (as I recall) pretty nice (nicer than Welch anyway). Up in the mountains close to the VA line.

    Nearby Bluefield (WV & VA) used to be famous back in the day, for an ice cream parlor that gave out free ice cream when the summertime temperature broke 90F or thereabouts. Was really advertising the fact that, in the dog days of summer, Bluefield had some of the cooler weather in the general area.
    No, clearly some nice bits of Princeton (Jewel of the South, no less), but I was referring to the $50k houses as not being something you'd want

    Princeton WV is only about 90 minutes from Roanoke, too.
    And within commuting distance of Liberty University in Lynchburg.

    Even closer to Radford University, Radford VA which is a wee bit more liberal artsy than LU (to put it mildly) but no competition on the basketball court.
    To be clear, I quite like Appalachia, at least the natural beauty.
    Asheville’s a great place to visit, and stay, and at odds with the wider image of North Carolina. Some good walking in the surrounding area. Lynchburg is an interesting place that has clearly gone through deindustrialization and mostly survived. And I had a very good lunch in Roanoke; they were wise to change the name from Big Lick.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,316

    TOPPING said:

    I will no doubt repeat this point when @TheJezziah gets on but as regards Jezza's electability. During the Lab leadership contest my local Lab MP asked me, as a then Tory activist, who I would want as Lab leader.

    I said Jezza.

    She was quite mocking and dismissive (she was a Jezza fan). But I was right and so were the £3-ers.

    Whatever the relative vote shares, Jezza lead the Labour Party to it's worst defeat in eons and delivered an 80-seat Cons majority. Job done.

    As for SKS' electability, we shall see.

    Letting your enemy choose your leader was always a bold plan! It would be like Labour lumbering the Tories with John Redwood.
    According to @TheJezziah the enemy also chose SKS.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    ydoethur said:

    If Keir gets 260 seats in GE 2024 will LAB let him have another go in 2029???

    Yes. If they let Kinnock have another go after 1987 (after gaining about 40 seats) they'll let Starmer have another go (if he wants to) in 2028/29.
    Labour is useless at getting rid of failed leaders..they actually vote losers in ... eg...they even voted in the loons Brown and Corbyn.. Labour need a new "messiah" but there isn't one.
    Labour would have let IDS lose two elections.....
    The issue with Corbyn was not that there was no move to get rid of him but that Labour’s rules meant it failed. If he had been a Tory, he would have been dismissed by that VONC the PLP held (which Corbyn lost by a far wider margin than Duncan Smith lost his) and somebody sane and not a racist could have been elected. In fact, it’s unlikely Corbyn’s overt racism would have cut through had he been removed in 2016. He’d have been a comic footnote, quickly forgotten.

    And Labour would likely have conceded an overall majority to May in probably 2019, albeit she would have been less likely to stand on a hard right platform, but been much better placed to win next time.
    On the other hand, she would STILL be trying to get her Brexit Bill through....
    Theresa May, and the 1922 banging the desks for her after the Conservative majority went missing in 2017, is surely some sort of counter-argument against the clear-minded ruthlessness of Conservative MPs. As is their having elected her in the first place, along with losers like Hague, IDS and Howard. And since IDS's Conservatives scored well at the Locals and Howard was a no-show at the general election, they'd probably have done better to stick with IDS.
    The benchmark on Howard is that the had 33 gains in 2005. No way would IDS have beaten that tally. He was only 2.8% behind Blair in the popular vote - but 157 seats behind. Labour were very much flattered by perhaps the most efficient vote in history?
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,997

    We did To Kill A Mockingbird in school for GCSE. Is it just the use of the N word? What other objections are there?

    It's not as good as it is made out to be?

    And yes, I have read it. And the sequel.
    Film was brilliant also.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,290



    Sorry did you read the extracts from the article?!

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/04/internal-polling-suggests-labour-heading-for-defeat-in-hartlepool-byelection

    ----------------------------------
    Exclusive: Party’s own figures show only 40% of previous supporters pledge to back its candidate this time
    ------------------------------------

    This is 40% of people previously voting Labour!!

    You are either going to have to start calling Corbyn an electoral savant or invent a new word for being even more unelectable than unelectable because Corbyn and Starmer do not belong in the same category in terms of electability.

    Corbyn is so much more electable than him it is actually funny.

    No surprise it is a bunch of Tories leaping to Starmer's defence here. Saw a quote on twitter earlier something about the Conservatives going easy on Starmer so Labour don't get rid of him.

    In fairness if Labour had a good leader and the Conservatives had one like Starmer I'd probably try and help prop him up as well, certainly wouldn't attack him as strongly as Conservatives did Corbyn, you'd reserve that for electoral threats.

    I think the position is that Corbyn genuinely enthused lots of people, especially in 2017, but for whatever reason (we can debate that separately) eventually in 2019 made a majority determined not to elect him. Starmer doesn't so far enthuse most people, but also doesn't alienate many. So he gets quite good polling, but he doesn't really mobilise people to rush out and vote, in the same way that I quite like pizza (ideally with pineapple) but never eat it in practice.

    Harold Wilson observed that Labour is best led from the left, by which I think he meant the starting position needs to be on the left to get the sense of purpose and enthusiasm, and one can then compromise as necessary. I still like Corbyn personally and he did part 1 excellently, but he's not a man for compromise.

    Starmer's view is that you have to first dispel the solid antipathy of people who became determined not to vote Labour before you can usefully get to the enthusing part - especially during the pandemic when people are only half-listening anyway. That may be right, but it requires a good deal of patience among Labour supporters, and acceptance of some poor results. We shall see.
    Having people quite liking Labour but never voting for it in practice would appear to be aiming to go where the LibDems used to be?
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,316
    edited May 2021
    IanB2 said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    Ref discussion on previous thread about poverty in WVA, I looked at the Zillow site for real estate in Princeton WVA, and Welch WVA, both in McDowell County. Houses available for under $50k. Not necessarily anything you'd want to live in ...

    You might be surprised. Princeton is (as I recall) pretty nice (nicer than Welch anyway). Up in the mountains close to the VA line.

    Nearby Bluefield (WV & VA) used to be famous back in the day, for an ice cream parlor that gave out free ice cream when the summertime temperature broke 90F or thereabouts. Was really advertising the fact that, in the dog days of summer, Bluefield had some of the cooler weather in the general area.
    No, clearly some nice bits of Princeton (Jewel of the South, no less), but I was referring to the $50k houses as not being something you'd want

    Princeton WV is only about 90 minutes from Roanoke, too.
    And within commuting distance of Liberty University in Lynchburg.

    Even closer to Radford University, Radford VA which is a wee bit more liberal artsy than LU (to put it mildly) but no competition on the basketball court.
    To be clear, I quite like Appalachia, at least the natural beauty.
    Asheville’s a great place to visit, and stay, and at odds with the wider image of North Carolina. Some good walking in the surrounding area. Lynchburg is an interesting place that has clearly gone through deindustrialization and mostly survived. And I had a very good lunch in Roanoke; they were wise to change the name from Big Lick.
    If you drive from north to south in Kentucky you go from the immaculate white picket fences of the stud farms in and around Lexington to the grinding poverty of people selling their socks on their porches near Cumberland Gap.
This discussion has been closed.