Re Wythenshawe, I'd expect a major Lib Dem collapse there, all Lib Dem activity in that part of the world is focussed upon holding Manchester Withington in 2015.
Indeed, in 2010/11 the Lib Dems were really active but since their first council election hammering they have gone silent. Wipe out for them here.
I can't say I feel much of a UKIP vibe round the area. Maybe on a very low turnout they might do well.
UKIP have done poorly in council elections and by-elections in the North-West and Manchester. Lost their deposit in Manchester Central just two weeks before coming second in Middlesbrough.
UKIP have done poorly in council elections and by-elections in the North-West and Manchester. Lost their deposit in Manchester Central just two weeks before coming second in Middlesbrough.
Manchester Central isn't fertile territory for UKIP.
Hell, I was one of the mere 754 who voted Tory in that by-election.
"Figure 1 shows December precipitation, using the Met Office data. For the country as a whole, last month was only the 20th wettest since 1910, certainly nothing out of the ordinary."
My condolences to Paul Goggins' family. As a Manchester lad I can say that he really was one of the good ones - he ran a children's home, led on church social action projects, was never as tribal as his party. You didn't have to be a Labourite to have immense respect for him.
I've just had a look at the constituency map; I know most of it as I grew up in the constituency next door.
Wythenshawe and Baguley is core Labour. Substantial housing estate with areas working well and others falling behind. But an established community; I'd expect the recent elections and bye-elections in Manchester to give an indication of how UKIP will do. I don't know the Sale end of the ward as well, but from my limited knowledge of Sale I'd expect the Tories to do well here, and for the Tories here not to be as UKIP-friendly as those in southern, rural areas. The LD stronghold of Heald Green is just outside the ward - good for Cheadle but not for this bye-election and hard to see areas of strength for the party here.
So I would lay UKIP at anything like the odds that rsc1000 is buying them, and a safe Labour hold. If UKIP can't win seats off Labour when the previous MP was jailed for fraud, why would they win the seat when the previous MP was well-regarded?
If anyone thinks we now have better banking regulation than before, read the evidence of the current Head of Supervision at the FCA about how Flowers was chosen to head up the Co-op.
Tyrie's Committee is doing great work. Let's hope someone senior at the Treasury is listening.
My condolences to Paul Goggins' family. As a Manchester lad I can say that he really was one of the good ones - he ran a children's home, led on church social action projects, was never as tribal as his party. You didn't have to be a Labourite to have immense respect for him.
I've just had a look at the constituency map; I know most of it as I grew up in the constituency next door.
Wythenshawe and Baguley is core Labour. Substantial housing estate with areas working well and others falling behind. But an established community; I'd expect the recent elections and bye-elections in Manchester to give an indication of how UKIP will do. I don't know the Sale end of the ward as well, but from my limited knowledge of Sale I'd expect the Tories to do well here, and for the Tories here not to be as UKIP-friendly as those in southern, rural areas. The LD stronghold of Heald Green is just outside the ward - good for Cheadle but not for this bye-election and hard to see areas of strength for the party here.
So I would lay UKIP at anything like the odds that rsc1000 is buying them, and a safe Labour hold. If UKIP can't win seats off Labour when the previous MP was jailed for fraud, why would they win the seat when the previous MP was well-regarded?
Not wanting to disagree particularly, but couldn't you say that given he was well-regarded, then there is likely to be a higher than normal personal vote which will be distributed elsewhere?
Did they remind him that he could be an England cricket team player :P ?
I suppose its good luck (or maybe bad luck?) to be caught in mid jump by a international wicketkeeper. (even if he is English!) .Did Matt Prior say 'HOWZAT'?
A winter World Cup? Blimey. That'll kick off a few lawsuits I guess.
It's still 8 years away - how many contracts will run that far yet, whether individual or commercial?
Frankly, it's the only sensible option, having awarded the thing there to start with. Whether Qatar should have won is a different question but in theory, all countries should have the right to bid and - ability to deliver permitting - to win. Climate is something that can be worked around.
A winter World Cup? Blimey. That'll kick off a few lawsuits I guess.
It's still 8 years away - how many contracts will run that far yet, whether individual or commercial?
Frankly, it's the only sensible option, having awarded the thing there to start with. Whether Qatar should have won is a different question but in theory, all countries should have the right to bid and - ability to deliver permitting - to win. Climate is something that can be worked around.
Quite a lot, especially the American TV contracts have been signed for both 2018 and 2022
That said, I've had a small bet on West Ham on beating Man City, 18/1 with Coral.
So if West Ham win 6-0 that's a couple of new pairs of shoes presumably? (And could be closer than everyone thinks - West Ham have to seriously go at this given Sam's comments about the FA Cup, and City are likely to field a relatively junior team. Still think City to win by the odd goal though)
That said, I've had a small bet on West Ham on beating Man City, 18/1 with Coral.
So if West Ham win 6-0 that's a couple of new pairs of shoes presumably? (And could be closer than everyone thinks - West Ham have to seriously go at this given Sam's comments about the FA Cup, and City are likely to field a relatively junior team. Still think City to win by the odd goal though)
The Trafford BC by election in Broadheath ward on January 16th should give some clues as to the Wythensawe/Sale East by election . Normally a pretty safe Conservative seat it went Labour in 2012 although it had stayed Conservative in 2011 . FWIW , I can see Wythensawe as an easy Labour hold , UKIP may come second but will be nowhere close to winning .
re exports to Italy, even if they were to do very poorly, I wouldn't worry about them having too much effect. We export surprisingly little to Italy - it ranks well below (for example) Germany, the Netherlands, Ireland, Belgium, the US, and France. The rapid economic growth in Ireland (probably running at an - admittedly unsustainable - annualised rate of 4% in 4Q) is of far more important to the exports of the UK than Italy.
Robert, thanks for your comments downthread which I read with interest. I was not directly concerned with exports to Italy which I agree are small but more the indirect consequences of further disruption in the EZ as a whole.
I would agree that France is the greater concern simply because it is on the wrong path and things are getting worse rather than better but the fundamental problem with the EZ is that we need inflation and a surge in demand in Germany to offset the deflationary forces elsewhere whilst countries try to devalue internally and the Germans are simply not up for it. This means that if one of the major players such as France or Italy run into problems continental wide deflation with a consequential collapse in demand is a real risk.
The proportion of our exports going to the EU has been falling and will, I think, continue to fall but we cannot escape a significant impact from this. Together with an ever more dodgy banking system in China I think this is still top of the external risks we face.
It all depends on France...
If M Hollande follows Mitterand in being a socialist who sees the error of his ways, and veers right, then I think the Eurozone will have a good few years ahead of it. But if he does not (and he shows no signs of any sense whatsoever)... then it could be very nasty indeed.
The number that scares me is 56%.
That's the proportion of French GDP made up by government spending. It's a truly horrendous number. While Ireland, Spain, etc., etc., etc., have cut spending in both absolute terms, and as a percentage of GDP, France has stuck its fingers in its ears and said "la la la I can't hear you..." Austerity has not come to France, and the size of the fiscal adjustment required there is huge.
That said: I have been banging on about progress in the periphery - and in Ireland, Spain (and to a lesser extent Portugal) - things are definitely improving. I wouldn't be surprised to see unemployment fall 3% in Ireland this year, and more than 5% in Spain. Ireland's debt-to-GDP could actually begin falling this year, something truly unimaginable at the height of the sovereign debt crisis three years ago.
A winter World Cup? Blimey. That'll kick off a few lawsuits I guess.
It's still 8 years away - how many contracts will run that far yet, whether individual or commercial?
Frankly, it's the only sensible option, having awarded the thing there to start with. Whether Qatar should have won is a different question but in theory, all countries should have the right to bid and - ability to deliver permitting - to win. Climate is something that can be worked around.
You're right. The bidding process must be open to all and northern hemisphere ovens need to have express timing flexibility in the bid process. But the bid was not based on a flexible date. The various national FAs will be livid as it will screw their seasons / winter breaks. The losing bidders will feel cheated. Australia is already gearing up a legal challenge. What a mess.
That said, I've had a small bet on West Ham on beating Man City, 18/1 with Coral.
So if West Ham win 6-0 that's a couple of new pairs of shoes presumably? (And could be closer than everyone thinks - West Ham have to seriously go at this given Sam's comments about the FA Cup, and City are likely to field a relatively junior team. Still think City to win by the odd goal though)
No, the first bet is on Man City's home goals.
Ahh... sorry, misread that as 'goals' rather than 'home goals'. Same applies to West Ham winning 7-6 then, but clearly you are getting into the realm of fantasy. (Some would say you are already there when talking about West Ham winning...)
Possibly, I think he may not have the options, due to injuries and suspension, plus, I don't think he wants to follow the precedent of Birmingham or Wigan.
Staying in the Premier League is what it is all about.
Possibly, I think he may not have the options, due to injuries and suspension, plus, I don't think he wants to follow the precedent of Birmingham or Wigan.
Staying in the Premier League is what it is all about.
I find that a pity . What is the point of a football team if it never wants to win a trophy?. The League Cup and FA Cup are realistic trophies for any premier league side wheras the title is only realistic for 6 teams at most
That said, I've had a small bet on West Ham on beating Man City, 18/1 with Coral.
So if West Ham win 6-0 that's a couple of new pairs of shoes presumably? (And could be closer than everyone thinks - West Ham have to seriously go at this given Sam's comments about the FA Cup, and City are likely to field a relatively junior team. Still think City to win by the odd goal though)
No, the first bet is on Man City's home goals.
Ahh... sorry, misread that as 'goals' rather than 'home goals'. Same applies to West Ham winning 7-6 then, but clearly you are getting into the realm of fantasy. (Some would say you are already there when talking about West Ham winning...)
I'm someone who has bet on West Ham being relegated this season.
Not saying its not going to happen, but 7/1 aren't good odds
I know, sometimes you have to take what is available, if West Ham can concede 5 to Nottingham Forest, then away at Man City, you have to worry for them.
My condolences to Paul Goggins' family. As a Manchester lad I can say that he really was one of the good ones - he ran a children's home, led on church social action projects, was never as tribal as his party. You didn't have to be a Labourite to have immense respect for him.
I've just had a look at the constituency map; I know most of it as I grew up in the constituency next door.
Wythenshawe and Baguley is core Labour. Substantial housing estate with areas working well and others falling behind. But an established community; I'd expect the recent elections and bye-elections in Manchester to give an indication of how UKIP will do. I don't know the Sale end of the ward as well, but from my limited knowledge of Sale I'd expect the Tories to do well here, and for the Tories here not to be as UKIP-friendly as those in southern, rural areas. The LD stronghold of Heald Green is just outside the ward - good for Cheadle but not for this bye-election and hard to see areas of strength for the party here.
So I would lay UKIP at anything like the odds that rsc1000 is buying them, and a safe Labour hold. If UKIP can't win seats off Labour when the previous MP was jailed for fraud, why would they win the seat when the previous MP was well-regarded?
Not wanting to disagree particularly, but couldn't you say that given he was well-regarded, then there is likely to be a higher than normal personal vote which will be distributed elsewhere?
No idea about this constituency, but am really surprised that @rcs_1000 wants to take 6/4 (please not 3/2!!) about UKIP... Ill lay 2/1 if you like Robert?
That said, I seem to think that a well regarded MP dying means less people will vote for the incumbent party... I mean voters aren't going to be more likely to vote for the replacement than he guy they liked who passed away are they?!
Possibly, I think he may not have the options, due to injuries and suspension, plus, I don't think he wants to follow the precedent of Birmingham or Wigan.
Staying in the Premier League is what it is all about.
I find that a pity . What is the point of a football team if it never wants to win a trophy?. The League Cup and FA Cup are realistic trophies for any premier league side wheras the title is only realistic for 6 teams at most
Unfortunately all the revenue is staying in the Premier League, add in the even higher deals for the Champions League, then it is inevitable.
A winter World Cup? Blimey. That'll kick off a few lawsuits I guess.
It's still 8 years away - how many contracts will run that far yet, whether individual or commercial?
Frankly, it's the only sensible option, having awarded the thing there to start with. Whether Qatar should have won is a different question but in theory, all countries should have the right to bid and - ability to deliver permitting - to win. Climate is something that can be worked around.
Quite a lot, especially the American TV contracts have been signed for both 2018 and 2022
Well, certainly money for the lawyers, one way or another. I'd still reckon it as odds-on to be a winter tournament though.
For the American markets, the matches are on at largely unappealing times anyway: games starting in Qatar at midday would be on at midnight-3am (main four timezones), while 8pm kick-offs will be 8am-11am in the States. There shouldn't be any direct clashes with the big American sports even if the seasons overlap.
Possibly, I think he may not have the options, due to injuries and suspension, plus, I don't think he wants to follow the precedent of Birmingham or Wigan.
Staying in the Premier League is what it is all about.
I find that a pity . What is the point of a football team if it never wants to win a trophy?. The League Cup and FA Cup are realistic trophies for any premier league side wheras the title is only realistic for 6 teams at most
Unfortunately all the revenue is staying in the Premier League, add in the even higher deals for the Champions League, then it is inevitable.
yes but Champions league football is also unrealistic for most of the premiership sides as well . What si the point of say West Ham (or indeed following West Ham) when they spurn the only chance of winning a trophy (or indeed qualifying for Europe through winning that trophy)
I think that is a stunning bet and I shall be putting the full £2.43 that William Hill let me on that bet...
You are wasting your money. I don't get any sense of this area being fertile UKIP territory and the former LDs in this constituency are public sector workers who will be heading to Labour.
The Grim Reaper will have to get his skates on for that one to happen, if the Tories suffer a loss in the last six months of the parliament they can follow Gordon Brown's example and leave the seat open.
Not saying its not going to happen, but 7/1 aren't good odds
where you get 10/1 for the maths?
I have a program that works out the likelihood of a team or a player scoring "x" amount of goals per match and given that the market expects City to score 3.1 goals tonight, (using the average of Sportining Index and Spreadex's quotes) then City to score 6 or more is 9.2%
Spreadex are also close to arbing Betfair on the high side of City which means backing City to do well with them is the worst place in town
Not saying its not going to happen, but 7/1 aren't good odds
where you get 10/1 for the maths?
I have a program that works out the likelihood of a team or a player scoring "x" amount of goals per match and given that the market expects City to score 3.1 goals tonight, (using the average of Sportining Index and Spreadex's quotes) then City to score 6 or more is 9.2%
Spreadex are also close to arbing Betfair on the high side of City which means backing City to do well with them is the worst place in town
The Grim Reaper will have to get his skates on for that one to happen, if the Tories suffer a loss in the last six months of the parliament they can follow Gordon Brown's example and leave the seat open.
Doesn't need the grim reaper, there's a Tory MP on awaiting trial, who is in a safe seat that I can see UKIP taking were there to be a by-election and has a history of humiliating the Tories in a by-election.
Not saying its not going to happen, but 7/1 aren't good odds
where you get 10/1 for the maths?
I have a program that works out the likelihood of a team or a player scoring "x" amount of goals per match and given that the market expects City to score 3.1 goals tonight, (using the average of Sportining Index and Spreadex's quotes) then City to score 6 or more is 9.2%
Spreadex are also close to arbing Betfair on the high side of City which means backing City to do well with them is the worst place in town
I am right in thinking you did/do work for a betting company, and did odds on football?
Not saying its not going to happen, but 7/1 aren't good odds
where you get 10/1 for the maths?
I have a program that works out the likelihood of a team or a player scoring "x" amount of goals per match and given that the market expects City to score 3.1 goals tonight, (using the average of Sportining Index and Spreadex's quotes) then City to score 6 or more is 9.2%
Spreadex are also close to arbing Betfair on the high side of City which means backing City to do well with them is the worst place in town
I am right in thinking you did/do work for a betting company, and did odds on football?
Not wanting to disagree particularly, but couldn't you say that given he was well-regarded, then there is likely to be a higher than normal personal vote which will be distributed elsewhere?
No idea about this constituency, but am really surprised that @rcs_1000 wants to take 6/4 (please not 3/2!!) about UKIP... Ill lay 2/1 if you like Robert?
That said, I seem to think that a well regarded MP dying means less people will vote for the incumbent party... I mean voters aren't going to be more likely to vote for the replacement than he guy they liked who passed away are they?!
You can argue it that way but I don't agree. A local candidate, particularly one who worked with Paul Goggins, would surely transfer some of the goodwill and respect, and even an import would say they wanted to continue his work. Would you rather be the Labour candidate here or in Rotherham?
Wythenshawe East and Sale: My first by-election! (I live in Priory Ward in Sale). Unfortunately, I don't think it's going to be interestingly close - Labour are easily far enough ahead not to have to worry about this during a non-Labour government. Regarding Mark Senior's comment earlier: Broadheath contains a lot (for Trafford) of council housing and was never the safest of Conservative seats, so we can't draw too much of a conclusion from that; having said that, of Sale East's three seats, only Brooklands can really be considered safely in the Conservative column. I'd expect UKIP to come second, but not by enough to worry Labour.
Not saying its not going to happen, but 7/1 aren't good odds
where you get 10/1 for the maths?
I have a program that works out the likelihood of a team or a player scoring "x" amount of goals per match and given that the market expects City to score 3.1 goals tonight, (using the average of Sportining Index and Spreadex's quotes) then City to score 6 or more is 9.2%
Spreadex are also close to arbing Betfair on the high side of City which means backing City to do well with them is the worst place in town
I am right in thinking you did/do work for a betting company, and did odds on football?
Yes I worked as a football trader in spread betting and work for myself doing that now, so was only trying to help. Probably shouldn't have stuck my nose in as when it cops I will look an idiot, but just thought Id check the maths.... old habits and all that
Not wanting to disagree particularly, but couldn't you say that given he was well-regarded, then there is likely to be a higher than normal personal vote which will be distributed elsewhere?
No idea about this constituency, but am really surprised that @rcs_1000 wants to take 6/4 (please not 3/2!!) about UKIP... Ill lay 2/1 if you like Robert?
That said, I seem to think that a well regarded MP dying means less people will vote for the incumbent party... I mean voters aren't going to be more likely to vote for the replacement than he guy they liked who passed away are they?!
You can argue it that way but I don't agree. A local candidate, particularly one who worked with Paul Goggins, would surely transfer some of the goodwill and respect, and even an import would say they wanted to continue his work. Would you rather be the Labour candidate here or in Rotherham?
I think that is a stunning bet and I shall be putting the full £2.43 that William Hill let me on that bet...
You are wasting your money. I don't get any sense of this area being fertile UKIP territory and the former LDs in this constituency are public sector workers who will be heading to Labour.
Dunno. Turnouts have been quite low (50-odd percent) over the past few elections so there's possibly a significant number of "a plague on all your house" votes to be harvested. The Labour share of the vote has dropped quite significantly since 1997, too.
Cost of living crisis? What cost of living crisis?
More good news on retail inflation.
Shop prices in the UK dropped by the most since the final month of 2006 in December, falling by 0.8 per cent year-on-year, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC).
That marked an acceleration from the 0.3% drop seen the month before and the eighth consecutive month of falling shop prices.
Food inflation slowed to 1.7% from 2.3% in November, while non-food prices moved lower at a 2.3% clip, having decreased by 2% in November.
But then again... this will be... West Ham's reserves...
Yeah I guess if you think the Spread is wrong then the derivatives will be wrong...
Traders like to tease people into buying goals/ backing lots of goals in first legs as they are notoriously cagey... A great bet is under 1.5 and 0-0 multiples in play off first legs for instance
That said, City do seem to be rewriting the record books at the Etihad...
I don't think WHU will play as weak a team like they did at Forest.. my Dad used to be WHU academy coach and some of the players on Sunday were in his team!
Not saying its not going to happen, but 7/1 aren't good odds
where you get 10/1 for the maths?
I have a program that works out the likelihood of a team or a player scoring "x" amount of goals per match and given that the market expects City to score 3.1 goals tonight, (using the average of Sportining Index and Spreadex's quotes) then City to score 6 or more is 9.2%
Spreadex are also close to arbing Betfair on the high side of City which means backing City to do well with them is the worst place in town
I am right in thinking you did/do work for a betting company, and did odds on football?
Yes I worked as a football trader in spread betting and work for myself doing that now, so was only trying to help. Probably shouldn't have stuck my nose in as when it cops I will look an idiot, but just thought Id check the maths.... old habits and all that
Please contribute more, your thoughts are very welcome.
As someone who bets regularly on football, it was only thanks to you I've just discovered poisson distribution applies to total goals
Wythenshawe East and Sale: My first by-election! (I live in Priory Ward in Sale). Unfortunately, I don't think it's going to be interestingly close - Labour are easily far enough ahead not to have to worry about this during a non-Labour government. Regarding Mark Senior's comment earlier: Broadheath contains a lot (for Trafford) of council housing and was never the safest of Conservative seats, so we can't draw too much of a conclusion from that; having said that, of Sale East's three seats, only Brooklands can really be considered safely in the Conservative column. I'd expect UKIP to come second, but not by enough to worry Labour.
Welcome Cookie , hope you will be able to give us some local input as the by election progresses . Re Btoadheath , following the boundary changes in 2004 , the Conservatives had won the ward very comfortably until 2011 when it became marginal and 2012 when Labour gained the ward .
re exports to Italy, even if they were to do very poorly, I wouldn't worry about them having too much effect. We export surprisingly little to Italy - it ranks well below (for example) Germany, the Netherlands, Ireland, Belgium, the US, and France. The rapid economic growth in Ireland (probably running at an - admittedly unsustainable - annualised rate of 4% in 4Q) is of far more important to the exports of the UK than Italy.
Robert,
The proportion of our exports going to the EU has been falling and will, I think, continue to fall but we cannot escape a significant impact from this. Together with an ever more dodgy banking system in China I think this is still top of the external risks we face.
It all depends on France...
If M Hollande follows Mitterand in being a socialist who sees the error of his ways, and veers right, then I think the Eurozone will have a good few years ahead of it. But if he does not (and he shows no signs of any sense whatsoever)... then it could be very nasty indeed.
The number that scares me is 56%.
That's the proportion of French GDP made up by government spending. It's a truly horrendous number. While Ireland, Spain, etc., etc., etc., have cut spending in both absolute terms, and as a percentage of GDP, France has stuck its fingers in its ears and said "la la la I can't hear you..." Austerity has not come to France, and the size of the fiscal adjustment required there is huge.
That said: I have been banging on about progress in the periphery - and in Ireland, Spain (and to a lesser extent Portugal) - things are definitely improving. I wouldn't be surprised to see unemployment fall 3% in Ireland this year, and more than 5% in Spain. Ireland's debt-to-GDP could actually begin falling this year, something truly unimaginable at the height of the sovereign debt crisis three years ago.
So, I am cautiously optimistic.
Hmmm
The window of opportunity for Hollande to get his act together is shrinking - 2 years tops - and then he finds himself in to a Presidential election. If he doesn't make changes soon he leaves no time for any benefits to come through and will get hammered at the polls. I suspect that as per its history France will have to explode first before it recasts itself.
The Grim Reaper will have to get his skates on for that one to happen, if the Tories suffer a loss in the last six months of the parliament they can follow Gordon Brown's example and leave the seat open.
Doesn't need the grim reaper, there's a Tory MP on awaiting trial, who is in a safe seat that I can see UKIP taking were there to be a by-election and has a history of humiliating the Tories in a by-election.
The Grim Reaper will have to get his skates on for that one to happen, if the Tories suffer a loss in the last six months of the parliament they can follow Gordon Brown's example and leave the seat open.
Doesn't need the grim reaper, there's a Tory MP on awaiting trial, who is in a safe seat that I can see UKIP taking were there to be a by-election and has a history of humiliating the Tories in a by-election.
Ah, see your point.
I'd like to stress I'm not prejudging him, he could be found innocent, and decided, eff this, I don't need any of this, and decides to quit as an MP.
The Grim Reaper will have to get his skates on for that one to happen, if the Tories suffer a loss in the last six months of the parliament they can follow Gordon Brown's example and leave the seat open.
Doesn't need the grim reaper, there's a Tory MP on awaiting trial, who is in a safe seat that I can see UKIP taking were there to be a by-election and has a history of humiliating the Tories in a by-election.
Ah, see your point.
I'd like to stress I'm not prejudging him, he could be found innocent, and decided, eff this, I don't need any of this, and decides to quit as an MP.
Could all the UKIP supporters get their money on their candidate nice and early in this by-election? I'd like to get some good odds backing Labour.
I am trying to lay them at 2/1! We don't all bet with our heart!
I would like to point out that:
(a) Labour are not exactly covering themselves in glory right now (b) The poll in the Mirror demonstrated that there are quite a lot of 'left wing' votes that are willing to go UKIP (c) A Romanian was seen near Manchester and (d) There is a real desire out there to give the traditional ruling classes a kick in the teerh
The 7/2 on a UKIP by-election win this year looks the best bet around. Ribble Valley, this seat, and I'm sure there will be at least one or deaths this year.
Could all the UKIP supporters get their money on their candidate nice and early in this by-election? I'd like to get some good odds backing Labour.
I am trying to lay them at 2/1! We don't all bet with our heart!
I would like to point out that:
(a) Labour are not exactly covering themselves in glory right now (b) The poll in the Mirror demonstrated that there are quite a lot of 'left wing' votes that are willing to go UKIP (c) A Romanian was seen near Manchester and (d) There is a real desire out there to give the traditional ruling classes a kick in the teerh
The 7/2 on a UKIP by-election win this year looks the best bet around. Ribble Valley, this seat, and I'm sure there will be at least one or deaths this year.
What happened when the Roma came to Levenshulme?
They were disgusted by the filth, the smell, the general mess and lack of manners, and said it wasn't like this back in Romania
Comments
Indeed, in 2010/11 the Lib Dems were really active but since their first council election hammering they have gone silent. Wipe out for them here.
I can't say I feel much of a UKIP vibe round the area. Maybe on a very low turnout they might do well.
I would guess Labour on over 50%.
Clueless.
Hell, I was one of the mere 754 who voted Tory in that by-election.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/07/is-englands-bad-weather-a-sign-of-climate-change/
"Figure 1 shows December precipitation, using the Met Office data. For the country as a whole, last month was only the 20th wettest since 1910, certainly nothing out of the ordinary."
I've just had a look at the constituency map; I know most of it as I grew up in the constituency next door.
Wythenshawe and Baguley is core Labour. Substantial housing estate with areas working well and others falling behind. But an established community; I'd expect the recent elections and bye-elections in Manchester to give an indication of how UKIP will do. I don't know the Sale end of the ward as well, but from my limited knowledge of Sale I'd expect the Tories to do well here, and for the Tories here not to be as UKIP-friendly as those in southern, rural areas. The LD stronghold of Heald Green is just outside the ward - good for Cheadle but not for this bye-election and hard to see areas of strength for the party here.
So I would lay UKIP at anything like the odds that rsc1000 is buying them, and a safe Labour hold. If UKIP can't win seats off Labour when the previous MP was jailed for fraud, why would they win the seat when the previous MP was well-regarded?
If you have a spreadex account, take advantage of their 7/1 odds on there being 6 home goals or more in tonight's Man City vs West Ham match.
The way City have been playing at home, and the way West Ham have been playing generally, it could be a massacre.
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-cup/man-city-v-west-ham/total-home-goals
Tyrie's Committee is doing great work. Let's hope someone senior at the Treasury is listening.
Frankly, it's the only sensible option, having awarded the thing there to start with. Whether Qatar should have won is a different question but in theory, all countries should have the right to bid and - ability to deliver permitting - to win. Climate is something that can be worked around.
http://thebiglead.com/2013/09/17/could-fox-prevent-fifa-from-moving-2022-world-cup-in-qatar-to-winter/
If M Hollande follows Mitterand in being a socialist who sees the error of his ways, and veers right, then I think the Eurozone will have a good few years ahead of it. But if he does not (and he shows no signs of any sense whatsoever)... then it could be very nasty indeed.
The number that scares me is 56%.
That's the proportion of French GDP made up by government spending. It's a truly horrendous number. While Ireland, Spain, etc., etc., etc., have cut spending in both absolute terms, and as a percentage of GDP, France has stuck its fingers in its ears and said "la la la I can't hear you..." Austerity has not come to France, and the size of the fiscal adjustment required there is huge.
That said: I have been banging on about progress in the periphery - and in Ireland, Spain (and to a lesser extent Portugal) - things are definitely improving. I wouldn't be surprised to see unemployment fall 3% in Ireland this year, and more than 5% in Spain. Ireland's debt-to-GDP could actually begin falling this year, something truly unimaginable at the height of the sovereign debt crisis three years ago.
So, I am cautiously optimistic.
It left Cam with a few scripted briefings that didn't match the tone though. He struggled a bit to adapt but otherwise took the bye.
Staying in the Premier League is what it is all about.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ian_Davidson_(British_politician)
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/ukip-to-win-a-by-election-before-the-next-general-election
Not saying its not going to happen, but 7/1 aren't good odds
That said, I seem to think that a well regarded MP dying means less people will vote for the incumbent party... I mean voters aren't going to be more likely to vote for the replacement than he guy they liked who passed away are they?!
In Europe we are seeing the diametric opposite economy wise of what posters such as BenM were endlessly predicting 18 months ago.
For the American markets, the matches are on at largely unappealing times anyway: games starting in Qatar at midday would be on at midnight-3am (main four timezones), while 8pm kick-offs will be 8am-11am in the States. There shouldn't be any direct clashes with the big American sports even if the seasons overlap.
You are wasting your money. I don't get any sense of this area being fertile UKIP territory and the former LDs in this constituency are public sector workers who will be heading to Labour.
Spreadex are also close to arbing Betfair on the high side of City which means backing City to do well with them is the worst place in town
Labour 57%
Tory 22%
LD 6.75%
UKIP 6.25%
Green 6.2%
TUSC 0.9%
Public sector largesse does not.
POISSON(6,3.78,FALSE) = 9.25%
But then again... this will be... West Ham's reserves...
Public sector largesse does not.
You only had to hit this site 18 months ago to hear the opposite argued, time and again, in all its glory.
One can but dream. Imagine the the panic, the terror that a UKIP upset would cause. And not just to Labour!
Here not Rotherham!
More good news on retail inflation.
Shop prices in the UK dropped by the most since the final month of 2006 in December, falling by 0.8 per cent year-on-year, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC).
That marked an acceleration from the 0.3% drop seen the month before and the eighth consecutive month of falling shop prices.
Food inflation slowed to 1.7% from 2.3% in November, while non-food prices moved lower at a 2.3% clip, having decreased by 2% in November.
Traders like to tease people into buying goals/ backing lots of goals in first legs as they are notoriously cagey... A great bet is under 1.5 and 0-0 multiples in play off first legs for instance
That said, City do seem to be rewriting the record books at the Etihad...
I don't think WHU will play as weak a team like they did at Forest.. my Dad used to be WHU academy coach and some of the players on Sunday were in his team!
As someone who bets regularly on football, it was only thanks to you I've just discovered poisson distribution applies to total goals
I think you will find that Ed Miliband already has a seat.
The window of opportunity for Hollande to get his act together is shrinking - 2 years tops - and then he finds himself in to a Presidential election. If he doesn't make changes soon he leaves no time for any benefits to come through and will get hammered at the polls. I suspect that as per its history France will have to explode first before it recasts itself.
Must be one to lay...
Messi being injured recently could have warped perceptions ?
I hope Scoresandscorers tip for him will come in
(a) Labour are not exactly covering themselves in glory right now
(b) The poll in the Mirror demonstrated that there are quite a lot of 'left wing' votes that are willing to go UKIP
(c) A Romanian was seen near Manchester
and
(d) There is a real desire out there to give the traditional ruling classes a kick in the teerh
The 7/2 on a UKIP by-election win this year looks the best bet around. Ribble Valley, this seat, and I'm sure there will be at least one or deaths this year.
From 1.6 to 2.4 in an hour
They were disgusted by the filth, the smell, the general mess and lack of manners, and said it wasn't like this back in Romania
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25559645
Only surprise is that it wasn't one of their teammates. (Hope that isn't too bad taste).