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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB 2014 Prediction Competition
It’s going to be a busy year ahead – the Euros, Scotland, and the world’s four biggest democracies all voting. Who’ll win the UK Euro-Elections, and will Scotland be on the road to independence by the end of the year? Will the coalition still be in place at Christmas? It’s time to dust off your crystal ball and make your competition predictions for 2014.
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As is traditional neither JackW or my ARSE will enter PB competitions so as to allow others to bask in the glow of modest attainment.
JackW's ARSE - Never Knowingly Undersold.
So is it going to be chicken UKIP JackW?
I was hugely disappointed to see your game didn't include the recently announced elections in North Korea. I believe including these would add a level of knife-edge tension and unpredictability which would challenge even the most insightful of PBers.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/08/north-korea-march-date-election-mps
A clear picture of Christmas quarter Retail Sales is beginning to emerge. J. Sainsbury plc has reported this morning and the story is of modest growth exceeding market expectations.
With John Lewis (Waitrose) doing well at the top end and Aldi/Lidl capturing significant increased share at the bottom, investors were waiting to see how the large mid market supermarkets performed. A sigh of relief can be heard in the City this morning.
The key points and CEO summary:
• Total sales for third quarter up 2.5 per cent (2.7 per cent excluding fuel)
• Like-for-like sales for third quarter flat (0.2 per cent excluding fuel)
Justin King, Chief Executive, said: "This quarter has been characterised by a very tough sales environment throughout October and November, with customers saving up in order to treat their families over the Christmas period. However, we saw strong sales in the key period over Christmas, helping record numbers of customers to Live Well for Less. Like-for-like sales excluding fuel of 0.2 per cent, coupled with a strong contribution from new space, led to our best Christmas ever.
All safe and sound stuff underpinning external forecasts for a better than expected UK Q4 GDP growth.
I've no need to burnish the reputation of either JackW or my ARSE by partaking of PB's august competitions. Let others enjoy the limelight a little.
Indeed as PB's reigning TOTY - Tipster of the Year, since 2008, I can only conclude that your clear infatuation with my ARSE is borne of the little green eyed monster that festers within your manly breast.
Relieve yourself man of these unworthy thoughts and come and worship at the altar of the greatest political predictor since the evolution of mankind. You know it makes sense.
JackW's ARSE - Never Knowingly Undersold Since the Dawn Of Time
Further .... may I also indicate to the PB masses that you referring to moi as "UKIP JackW" should of course not insinuate that I have any digit(al) relationship with Nigel Farage.
One soon learns to pull your finger out of such political accommodations.
The picture emerging is not one of excessive consumption though. Growth is positive but generally below the rates of CPI. And household cash flows are indicating that expenditure has not been driven by borrowing or even that much by reduced savings.
The Bank of England published their quarterly Bank Liabilities Survey yesterday (reporting on bank deposits and funding sources). This showed that household bank deposits remained stable through the last quarter of the year with deposits from firms increasing significantly.
This shows that the UK population have behaved in a prudent and measured way this Christmas.
Incidentally, the most welcome news from the BoE's Bank Liabilities Survey was the rapid improvement in Bank Capital over 2013 Q4:
Lenders reported that their total level of capital had continued to increase significantly in Q4. The balance of profits, losses, deductions and charges in the United Kingdom had continued to make a significant positive direct contribution to the change in total capital levels in Q4. Lenders expected a further significant rise in their total level of capital in 2014 Q1.
Dry stuff I realise but enough to send the share prices of the Lloyds and RBoS Banking shares rocketing.
George Osborne, contemplating proceeds from his imminent sale of the next tranche of Lloyds shares, was last seen doing a hop, skip and jump up Whitehall chanting "lovely, bubbly, jubbly".
It really is that good.
labour-uncut.co.uk/2014/01/06/the-milibelievers-are-destroying-labours-chances-for-victory-in-2015/#more-17658
I did however come across this
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avery_Co.
and wondered given your penchant for tractor stats if you are somehow connected ?
I've not been so traumatised since I was tagged on ConHome as a "Senior Conservative Commentator" !!!!!
I fear to report that there is no connection between myself and The Avery Company, Mr. Brooke.
Much to the disappointment of half the population, my engine, unlike that of the Avery Tractors, is top-mounted.
Huzzah for this competition!
As with the last one, though, I'll need to google and guess about the foreign leader questions.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/10557236/Stop-buying-new-appliances-and-cars-and-repair-them-instead-Government-adviser-says.html
I struggled with "tube manipulation" and "deep drawn components" yesterday and now you are pushing my comprehension to its fullest extent.
I won the Eastleigh by election contest by applying Jacks ARSE to my own estimate of turnout.
I shall attempt the above after a bit of research on Brazilians!
Happy punting Miss Minx, but betting against the ARSE requires more horsepower than in your Rootes.
Anyway, I have posted off my answers for the competition. I still think UKIP will easily come top in the euro-elections.
That is more than welcome before 9:00 am!
Once again it seems the unelected and unaccountable peers, who cretinous Clegg wanted to axe, will be about to block a bonkers policy from the Commoners:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25648019
"Courts could impose these on anyone engaging - or threatening to engage - in "conduct capable of causing nuisance or annoyance to any person"."
Making it illegal to be annoying?! Surely it's not the first day of April?
This is absolutely bloody nuts.
ASBOs are bloody stupid anyway (criminalising those who aren't actually breaking any laws), but this is a whole new level of insanity.
However, he's going a bit far on this. For one thing, the network of repair-people are not out there - the days when firms had people travelling around to fix things are long gone. Now it's more a case of sending the faulty item back, and getting a new one returned.
Secondly, the cost of spares and labour can easily exceed the cost of a new appliance. Our 8-year old LCD TV is developing bands on the top-third of the screen when left on for more than five hours - thankfully a rare occurrence. I've investigated, but they quoted more than the cost of a new TV for the LCD panel alone. In other words, they cannot be bothered, or the spares aren't available.
Answer: we'll leave it until it gets annoying and buy a new one.
Says the man who has a builder in (*) fitting a new washer-dryer this very morning ...
(*) A very nice Peruvian man who has a science PhD. Blooming immigrants, coming here and fitting kitchens ...
"(*) A very nice Peruvian man who has a science PhD. Blooming immigrants, coming here and fitting kitchens ..."
Paddington Bear Kitchens ??
http://www.libdemvoice.org/lib-dem-deputy-leadership-runners-and-riders-whos-your-choice-37550.html
I saw Lorelei Burt attacking the Tories a couple of days ago, haven't seen anything else. Can one of our resident LDs tell us more?
So much for the bubble merchants including some lately and currently in this parish.
"The main reason I moved overseas to teach was down to the current government. The whole academy debacle and mess that Gove has been allowed to make of the education system and devalue teachers has caused so many good teachers to leave the country. I would never consider returning to teach in the UK unless massive changes were to occur."
Back Thomas Schaaf at Paddy Power 11/4 (3.75)
Lay stake off at Betfair (2.9)
(West Brom next manager)
Paddy price is gone, 3.5 at Sky Bet available. (2.8 to lay now)
The trouble is there are too many indices, all based on different criteria and all varying in their findings by a large extent. This leads to conflicting signals being published almost weekly in the press.
The Hometrack index, not the most visible of those published, did at least carry some interesting commentary on what is happening:
Demand for housing grew by 25% in the last year while the supply of homes for sale rose by just 6%, fuelling concerns of a housing shortage.
Director of Research, Richard Donnell, said: "Demand grew at the fastest rate for three years while the supply of homes for sale grew at the lowest level recorded over the 12 year history of the survey
And the solution to this temporary problem doesn't lie with a short term boost in house building. New houses traditionally only account for around 8% of all sales. What is holding back the market is the reluctance of people who purchased at the height of the noughties boom to sell at a paper loss. So there needs to be another 5-10% increase in prices to get prices to pre-crisis nominal levels before the volume of properties placed on the market can match demand from purchasers.
This is why a 10% house price increase in 2014 is being predicted by many commentators and is seen by industry experts as necessary. The problem though is the volatility of house pricing and the ease with which rising confidence can create unjustified velocity. A short term correction followed by a return to increases close to inflation is what is needed, but may be difficult to achieve.
Presumably the ever rising number of Academy or Free School teachers are pretty happy with the state of things. These schools are wildly popular with parents. As are the few remaining Grammar Schools. Why? Failing old guard in retreat and more effective, efficient replacements advance.
So here's a question: If teaching has been captured entirely by its producers and has been delivering poorly and getting worse for a long time, what is the sensible policy approach? More of the same? More shiny new white boards?
Gove is a shitstirrer, an ideologue, an evangelist and has 'something of the night' about him. Good!
Mr. Away, you're quite right. The Government is being completely inept, and it's staggering we haven't heard about this deranged law until they've actually reached the Lords.
One of the comments in the article suggested the timing was to cover the removal of 'insulting' terms being illegal under some recently passed law.
Mind you, maybe the law could be applied here. Can we all arrest each other for being annoying in public?
Your house is 534 feet above sea level.
He's an interesting bloke. His wife works as a scientist in Cambridge, whilst he gave up working in biology to be an odd-job man/builder. The reason is that he finds more satisfaction - and money - from completing jobs in a day or a few weeks, than he did from his science work, where results would not come for years.
He says he's got a few weeks' work just rebuilding fences that have blown down in this wind. One guy's had 30 metres come down ...
"Some signals are also emerging to suggest the weather may undergo a change to colder weather types early next month."
Have the Express run their "we're all going to freeze in our beds" story yet?
Rich Danes Face Benefit Cuts as Universal Welfare Abandoned
Denmark’s richest citizens are finding themselves cut off from some welfare benefits as Scandinavia’s weakest nation reviews state-paid services once considered a universal right.
“We’ll see a welfare state that is gradually optimized to work under the conditions of globalization and global competition,” Danish Finance Minister Bjarne Corydon said yesterday in an interview in Copenhagen. “We continually alter priorities and financing to optimize the model."
Some Kinnockite soft shoe shuffling going on in that last line on priorities and models.
Full article here: http://bloom.bg/1bQh9i3
Great time to be a roofer. Terrible time to be an insurance company.
To add to the great body of PB anecdote my experience is much like yours. My dishwasher packed it in in October. The repair guy said it was probably some small element in the heater. The manufacturer however only sells the replacement part in a whole unit assembly.
To buy the replacement and fit cost almost as much as a new dishwasher. No surprise we bought a new one. Manufacturers just don't want to support out of production spares.
I also was interested in how the Prof would reconcile the environmental benefits of an upgraded stock versus keeping the old one going. New cars ( or boilers for that matter ) are more "green" in terms of emissions and energy use, so why does it make environmental sense to keep the old ones going ?
And then there's the economic arguments......
"Sexual violence in gang neighbourhoods is 'like that in war zones' ... Warning came following shocking Children's Commissioner report"
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2513653/Sexual-violence-gang-neighbourhoods-like-war-zones-girls-young-11-groomed-raped.html
Perhaps people will trust Labour to cut benefits only as far as necessary - the Tories may be suspected of cutting them further than that to further their own political agenda. BTW, does anyone have any data on the ethnicity of (a) working-age claimants and (b) pensioners by comparison with the population as a whole? If the figures are anything close to what I imagine them to be, they might explain a great deal.
Globalization, as well as making universal welfare unaffordable, is the biggest driver of racism since the age of imperial conquests.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/5363077/hell-has-actually-frozen-over.html
Excellent.
The problem is that there is no economic incentive to make things easy to repair. The consumer these days has little trust that an item is built to last, and so will rarely pay more on that basis.
"Who's the new german gaffer who makes like a sex machine for all the fans?
SCHAAF
Damn right........"
Far too much caution from the Met Office. The cold is likely to arrive much earlier.
it looks like Owen Paterson has become trapped in a jam of his own making. Belgian presumably :-)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2535563/Why-dont-YOU-buy-British-minister-Farmers-accuse-Government-hypocrisy-plea-shoppers-buy-foreign-food.html
"Temperatures are likely to be colder than recently in most areas with an increasing risk of frost, ice and fog."
So my interpretation is that they expect it to become colder in the near future, but that there's also a chance of it becoming what you might call properly cold early next month.
They still stock belts, filters and items like that for Dysons, washing machines, driers and things, plus they do warranty work for more technical repairs such as new control boards, but that's about it. Pretty much everything else will get replaced and binned. Even high end gadgets don't get repaired, unless it's a cracked screen on an i gadget or smartphone, as its just not cost effective in labour and cost of spares.
For those that are interested, last year ended up very slightly warmer than the average, after the first half of the year caused some excitement by being consistently colder than average.
"Latest figures show Italy's unemployment rate rose to 12.7pc in November, a new record high. Youth unemployment, at a staggering 41.6pc, is also at its highest ever."
Anyone who thinks the EZ crisis has gone away is kidding themselves. I really don't know how a society can sustain youth unemployment at those levels.
Sooner or later another crisis in the EZ involving Italy, France or both is going to disrupt our export trade once again. It will take some of the shine off our growth when it does.
Also, we'll have to start redesigning new houses, just to fit the bloody things in the lounge! The traditional TV position between the chimney breast and the front wall of the house is just too small to accommodate them now!
Mr. Me, you're quite right regarding furniture and the like.
I'm actually surprised that it's taken so long - globalisation was, after all, announced by Jimmy Carter during his presidency.
Perhaps people will trust Labour to cut benefits only as far as necessary - the Tories may be suspected of cutting them further than that to further their own political agenda. BTW, does anyone have any data on the ethnicity of (a) working-age claimants and (b) pensioners by comparison with the population as a whole? If the figures are anything close to what I imagine them to be, they might explain a great deal.
Globalization, as well as making universal welfare unaffordable, is the biggest driver of racism since the age of imperial conquests.
It is all a matter of optimal balance, IA.
Osborne, following Gurria at the OECD, opted for a fiscal consolidation plan with a ratio of tax rises to spending cuts of 20:80. This was at the top end of the splits adopted by other developed countries with similar deficit/debt problems to the UK.
Osborne then imposed the tax rises immediately, mainly through his VAT rise and applied the spending cuts gradually. More accurately he extended his tax cutting plans from an initial five year period to a full two terms, meaning that by the General Election we will be less than half way towards the levels of cuts needed to 'balance the budget'.
Osborne's gradualist approach to spending cuts has been clever both politically and economically. On the economics front, he has been able to optimise growth and thereby lessen the future burden and impact of spending cuts.
Politically he has done enough to prove the credibility of his economic plan without having to apply excessively unpopular austerity. In 2015, the job will be half done and there will be a clear and relatively easy path to its completion.
In this context, your claim that people will trust Labour to cut benefits only as far as necessary is questionable. It is Osborne who has mitigated the impact of cuts by re-phasing his plan from a five year to a ten year term. And both Labour and the Conservatives have to start from the same point in 2015. The planned cuts deferred will still have to be applied if the budget is to balance.
What Labour can do is to challenge Osborne's ratio of 20% tax rises to 80% spending cuts. This would be quite acceptable economically given that almost all other countries have opted for a higher proportion for tax increases.
But what Osborne has done is to associate his G7 leading rates of growth with the Plan A he originally adopted. Any proposal by Labour to increase taxes from 2015 onward would be seen (probably correctly from an economic view) as undermining growth.
St. George is not only a saint but a very clever poker player too.
On the subject of globalism being racist this is stretching my areas of competence beyond the bounds of credulity. You would need to explain further before I could attempt a useful reply.
Even then, most hardware repairs would be a case of replacing one module with another, if that.
Software was different. Once an on-air software upgrade bricked thousands of people's boxes. The only way it could be fixed was to send vans around. They'd pick a unit up, giving the consumer a repaired on, reflash the box with new software in the back of the van, and then give the next consumer that one.
You did not get 'your' unit back, but the one belonging to the previous person. AIUI they could do that because, in the contract, the boxes belonged to the company.
The testing department did *much* more work on software upgrades after that ...
Its only really Apple who like to make you pay for proprietary peripherals.
Labour MP Paul Goggins has died in a Salford hospital a week after he collapsed - @MENnewsdesk http://bit.ly/1a7vmaU
That's sad...
Spot on. Herself bought a new kettle yesterday, there was nothing wrong with the old one - providing you wrapped a cloth around your hand when pouring boiling water - which wasn't more than twenty years old. She bought a new toaster last year too; to replace one we had been given as a wedding present and which worked perfectly as long as you liked either underdone or burnt toast. In thirty-odd years of marriage we have also replaced the washing machine twice and the fridge three times. Sheer reckless consumerism I call it, and damaging to the economy to boot.
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Paul Goggins 17,987 44.1 -8.0
Conservative Janet Clowes 10,412 25.6 +3.3
Liberal Democrat Martin Eakins 9,107 22.3 +0.9
BNP Bernard Todd 1,572 3.9 N/A
UKIP Christopher Cassidy 1,405 3.4 +0.4
TUSC Lynn Worthington 268 0.7 +0.7
Majority 7,575 18.6
Turnout 40,751 54.3 +3.1
Labour hold Swing 5.9
Were they done by Roger, I wonder, or does our leading Adman only do condoms, bras and German motor vehicles?
I think we should be told.