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Tories forever? – politicalbetting.com

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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,604
    The Covid deaths seem to be flattening off at about the same level as the summer, between the two peaks. Are we seeing about the minimum we can get "with Covid"? I assume there is still a sizeable number of very poorly people with cancer, heart condition, pneumonia who happen to have had Covid too.
  • Hullo.

    I don't think it's enough to change leader. No one else is going to do any better. They need to get to grips with the ideological point Mr Herdson makes. Labour are are out of touch with people.

    Here's Labour solution. Abandon the union. Campaign full bore on Scottish and English independence, which might be for England & Wales. Go big on English nationalism. Keep everything else that matters to soft left voters but kick the union into oblivion.

    It ticks every box of where voters are at and then multiplies it ten-fold. It undoes the tories who are tied to the union in their very name. And I reckon a LOT of English people would be very very tempted to vote for it. Say goodbye to the Scots.

    I mean who really believes in the union? It's a weird idea. Out of step with the modern world and out of step with Brexit.

    How many English people stand up when singing the national anthem and think to themselves, 'God I'm so glad for the Scots' ?

    That would be the logical conclusion of Blue Labour..
    Exactly! And that's what Labour needs to do.

    They don't need Scotland. Look at Mr Herdson's chart showing 191 Labour seats. 1 of those was Scottish.

    What they DO need is to win back the Red Wall. They need to get some nationalism into their bones and blood. Everyone assumes this means Britishness. I'm suggesting it means Englishness. After all the Scots are pro-Remain anti-Brexit. They are not the core Labour needs back.

    They need English Labour voters back. Boot out the union and get the St George's flag into the emblem. Like the tories did with that oak tree.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    The Covid deaths seem to be flattening off at about the same level as the summer, between the two peaks. Are we seeing about the minimum we can get "with Covid"? I assume there is still a sizeable number of very poorly people with cancer, heart condition, pneumonia who happen to have had Covid too.

    Err, we are curre tly about three times higher than the September minimum.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,560
    edited April 2021
    Alistair said:

    The Covid deaths seem to be flattening off at about the same level as the summer, between the two peaks. Are we seeing about the minimum we can get "with Covid"? I assume there is still a sizeable number of very poorly people with cancer, heart condition, pneumonia who happen to have had Covid too.

    Err, we are curre tly about three times higher than the September minimum.
    In September, schools had been shut for six months.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,154

    Off topic, I went on my local steam railway with my family today. I saw probably 180-200 people on the two trains in service.

    At the end, I saw two middle-aged men - one sitting on the bench and one coming out of the Gents - wearing EU face masks. They both looked unfriendly and rather grumpy. They were also alone.

    A couple of years ago this would have angered me, and I'd have even felt threatened by it and driven to sneer at them. But, today, they just cut rather sad and tragic figures fighting a lost anachronistic battle.

    So, I just ignored them and walked on by. I was surprisingly unbothered by it; I just felt sorry for them.

    If they were wearing face masks how did you tell they were grumpy?

    Were you projecting?
    Greetings from sunny Devon.

    @Casino_Royale does not relate what the two gentlemen thought of the bowler hatted man in Union Jack knickerbockers and a “Never Kissed a Trot” T-shirt passing them.
    Welcome! Any luck with the floating restaurant in the Exe estuary?
    Sadly the River Exe Cafe does not open until later this month.

    We’ve arrived at the very beginning of the season and some places are still closed.
    We were shooed out of A La Ronde this morning, too.

    No matter, we’ve had a great time walking along the cliff tops and migrating between beach, pool and hot tub.

    The West Country is always better than I remember it.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,572

    Hullo.

    I don't think it's enough to change leader. No one else is going to do any better. They need to get to grips with the ideological point Mr Herdson makes. Labour are are out of touch with people.

    Here's Labour solution. Abandon the union. Campaign full bore on Scottish and English independence, which might be for England & Wales. Go big on English nationalism. Keep everything else that matters to soft left voters but kick the union into oblivion.

    It ticks every box of where voters are at and then multiplies it ten-fold. It undoes the tories who are tied to the union in their very name. And I reckon a LOT of English people would be very very tempted to vote for it. Say goodbye to the Scots.

    I mean who really believes in the union? It's a weird idea. Out of step with the modern world and out of step with Brexit.

    How many English people stand up when singing the national anthem and think to themselves, 'God I'm so glad for the Scots' ?

    That would be the logical conclusion of Blue Labour..
    Exactly! And that's what Labour needs to do.

    They don't need Scotland. Look at Mr Herdson's chart showing 191 Labour seats. 1 of those was Scottish.

    What they DO need is to win back the Red Wall. They need to get some nationalism into their bones and blood. Everyone assumes this means Britishness. I'm suggesting it means Englishness. After all the Scots are pro-Remain anti-Brexit. They are not the core Labour needs back.

    They need English Labour voters back. Boot out the union and get the St George's flag into the emblem. Like the tories did with that oak tree.
    Labour gets most of its votes from the middle class which would desert a nationalist Labour.

    Cleft stick

    2017 was Labour's last time ever getting 40% in a GE
  • NEW THREAD

  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    Hullo.

    I don't think it's enough to change leader. No one else is going to do any better. They need to get to grips with the ideological point Mr Herdson makes. Labour are are out of touch with people.

    Here's Labour solution. Abandon the union. Campaign full bore on Scottish and English independence, which might be for England & Wales. Go big on English nationalism. Keep everything else that matters to soft left voters but kick the union into oblivion.

    It ticks every box of where voters are at and then multiplies it ten-fold. It undoes the tories who are tied to the union in their very name. And I reckon a LOT of English people would be very very tempted to vote for it. Say goodbye to the Scots.

    I mean who really believes in the union? It's a weird idea. Out of step with the modern world and out of step with Brexit.

    How many English people stand up when singing the national anthem and think to themselves, 'God I'm so glad for the Scots' ?

    Welcome. I don't agree. Where labour is out of step is the culture war. Most people just don't think that gender is much more than Male / Female. Obviously there are some medical issues. But gender as a concept, and discussion might work as a thesis, but not in the real world. I cannot for the life of me see why Labour insist on tying their cause to it JK Rowling who is a classic story of struggling single mum made good and who has generously funded the party over the years is now a pariah, and I don't know how they tell a story about themselves where that is good.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,058

    Off topic, I went on my local steam railway with my family today. I saw probably 180-200 people on the two trains in service.

    At the end, I saw two middle-aged men - one sitting on the bench and one coming out of the Gents - wearing EU face masks. They both looked unfriendly and rather grumpy. They were also alone.

    A couple of years ago this would have angered me, and I'd have even felt threatened by it and driven to sneer at them. But, today, they just cut rather sad and tragic figures fighting a lost anachronistic battle.

    So, I just ignored them and walked on by. I was surprisingly unbothered by it; I just felt sorry for them.

    This has long been my view when I see people still going on about Brexit or the EU. I pity them. They haven't realised they they haven't just lost the battle but the war and the following peace as well.

    You would have thought the events of the last 6 months would have finally made them realise that but apparently not.

    I assume they will remain, like poor old Ted Heath, dissatisfied and resentful for the rest of their days.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,140
    Governments lose elections, oppositions don't win them.

    And while I'd make the Conservatives 60-65% likely to win (i.e. outright majority) the next election it is far from certain.

    For all the focus on Labour, the reality is that it is the government's record that will be on trial. Sensible oppositions "never interrupt their opponents when they're making a mistake".

    The hardest thing for the government to navigate in the next three years is going to be housing. If they get it right, lots of new people will be property owners and will have positive equity in their homes.

    If they get it wrong, then either house prices are materially lower (and lots of previously Conservative voters are angry) or the age of first home purchase continues to rise, resulting in ever more disenfranchised voters.

    Right now, we care about Covid and Brexit (where, after a rocky start, the government has done a good, perhaps excellent, job). But that will be old news in three years time.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,042

    Off topic, I went on my local steam railway with my family today. I saw probably 180-200 people on the two trains in service.

    At the end, I saw two middle-aged men - one sitting on the bench and one coming out of the Gents - wearing EU face masks. They both looked unfriendly and rather grumpy. They were also alone.

    A couple of years ago this would have angered me, and I'd have even felt threatened by it and driven to sneer at them. But, today, they just cut rather sad and tragic figures fighting a lost anachronistic battle.

    So, I just ignored them and walked on by. I was surprisingly unbothered by it; I just felt sorry for them.

    If they were wearing face masks how did you tell they were grumpy?

    Were you projecting?
    The eyes and demeanour.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,172

    Hullo.

    I don't think it's enough to change leader. No one else is going to do any better. They need to get to grips with the ideological point Mr Herdson makes. Labour are are out of touch with people.

    Here's Labour solution. Abandon the union. Campaign full bore on Scottish and English independence, which might be for England & Wales. Go big on English nationalism. Keep everything else that matters to soft left voters but kick the union into oblivion.

    It ticks every box of where voters are at and then multiplies it ten-fold. It undoes the tories who are tied to the union in their very name. And I reckon a LOT of English people would be very very tempted to vote for it. Say goodbye to the Scots.

    I mean who really believes in the union? It's a weird idea. Out of step with the modern world and out of step with Brexit.

    How many English people stand up when singing the national anthem and think to themselves, 'God I'm so glad for the Scots' ?

    That would be the logical conclusion of Blue Labour..
    Exactly! And that's what Labour needs to do.

    They don't need Scotland. Look at Mr Herdson's chart showing 191 Labour seats. 1 of those was Scottish.

    What they DO need is to win back the Red Wall. They need to get some nationalism into their bones and blood. Everyone assumes this means Britishness. I'm suggesting it means Englishness. After all the Scots are pro-Remain anti-Brexit. They are not the core Labour needs back.

    They need English Labour voters back. Boot out the union and get the St George's flag into the emblem. Like the tories did with that oak tree.
    I think that might win the Wall back and lose everywhere else.

    Certainly I'd be a goner.
This discussion has been closed.