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Analysing the market on Biden serving a full term – politicalbetting.com
Analysing the market on Biden serving a full term – politicalbetting.com
In recent wweks Joe Biden’s struggles up the stairs of Air Force One attracted much comment from his opponents and critics. It is a bit of an awkward watch, for some reason it reminded me of Ed Miliband’s inability to eat a bacon sandwich.
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Thread was launched into a void to begin with.
(Although it should be noted that the bystanders were at least as important in thwarting that as his bodyguards were.)
https://edition.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/europe/01/11/georgia.grenade/index.html
https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1382733889840484357
Plenty has been written about why there was no inflation post 2008 in goods and services, despite the huge increase in the money supply.
The most compelling explanation I’ve seen is that the highly globalised state of the major economies meant imported deflation kept headline inflation down. All the while, asset price inflation was pretty rampant. Mark Blythe has shown that in the last 20 years most of the real wealth gains have accrued to a tiny fraction of percent of the global population, with a smidgen to the masses in the emerging world. Joe Public in the West have largely had flatlined real incomes.
Monetarists will look at today’s less globalised world, a potential Cold War with China, more tightly restricted immigration etc... and conclude we’re headed finally for the headline inflation dragon to roar once again, as their models predict. If and when it doesn’t, they’ll no doubt have smart explanations after the event as to why it didn’t. Spoiler alert: it was the unfolding energy revolution that will be seen to have kept prices low.
"It is frankly insane that Bangladesh and Pakistan are on the UK travel red list countries but India is not. "
pure politics presumably with pm visit coming.
Honest.
It has:
Conservatives 43
Labour 29
Other parties not listed, but apparently Lib Dems and Greens are beneficiaries of 5 point Labour drop.
Lab 29 (-5)
LD 8 (+2)
Greens 8 (+2)
Reform 3 (nc)
Tories 43%
Lab 29%
LDs 8%
Greens 8%
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1382970427769810946?s=20
So again, Secret Service guards not a lot of use there.
It is out of control and the Indian authorities have failed to prevent hundreds of thousands of Hindu devotees gathering at the Ganges River flouting existing social distancing rules
It is the bane of my existence.
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1382970427769810946?s=19
If we're ok it'll be a matter of blind luck. If we're not, it'll be because of an obvious and repeated policy failing by the Government.
I’m still expecting some sort of two households rule bullshit this Christmas and they’ll expect us to be thankful for it compared with last year.
He then infected a bunch of antivaxxers who worked at a care home.
But I agree, the government have been and still are making far too many avoidable errors. And that’s basically because they have shockingly poor judgement.
On topic, I think the odds on Biden not completing his first term ought to be a great deal longer (though he might choose not to run again). As TSE suggests, much better bets are available on next President, or Democratic nominee.
8% green feels like a lot but it’s an issue more care about every year and it’s in the context of the Lib Dem’s still be well behind their historic totals.
If you grey out the most recent two weeks of death figures as lagged, and then compare the infections to deaths that should have occurred from them, you get this:
The deaths still look a bit flattened in comparison to the cases, at least to my eye, but nowhere near the mystifying level of flatness that you see if you don't do that.
It looks to me as though cases rose about 20-25% in that box and deaths may have climbed a few percent, but that's hard to make out - but well within normal fluctuations based on the randomish distribution of deaths and ages.
I can believe Labour are struggling but not that they’re behind in London. Sampling error.
They're not.
They're just going with what they feel.
Which is globalist sociopathy as regarding international travel and authoritarian sociopathy in regards to domestic restrictions.
https://www.vice.com/en/article/jg8ekk/runaway-nazi-golden-dawn-christos-pappas-greece
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/x3uculd6mi/TheTimes_Voting_Intention_Track_210414_W.pdf
@ElectionMapsUK
Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 43% (+2)
LAB: 29% (-5)
GRN: 8% (+2)
LDM: 8% (+2)
RFM: 3% (=)
Via @YouGov
, 12-13 Apr.
Changes w/ 7-8 Apr.
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/x3uculd6mi/TheTimes_Voting_Intention_Track_210414_W.pdf
And I'm not planning another lockdown...
Consequences will be a longer tail of deaths plus increases of numbers with long covid.
But I don't deny it's very worrying, especially if, as seems likely, they are catching a much lower % of infections than we were.
To take an example the massive increase in test and trace capacity over the last year gives us the surge capacity to do door to door testing if required over extended areas. The world leading genomic analysis of cases means we are almost certainly better at finding variants than anyone else. These tools in our kit bag do have to be taken into account when assessing the risk.
I doubt many people are even aware of the May elections yet
Those letters will be damaging to Tory prospects in Wales.
Given how bad you say Mark Drakeford is surely it must worry you that Boris Johnson trails Drakeford in Wales?
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1375110941994541056
Labour needs special interest enclaves to win a huge number of seats. These have little in common with each other, nor do they form an ideological or connected whole.
Ask the question: Which party best comprehends the idea that genuine aspiration and ambition in huge swathes of Britain would include becoming a white van man with one employee? White van man believes that Boris gets them. Their jury is out about SKS.
And I have no doubt the conservatives have private polling indicating that Boris vaccine success is recognised in Wales
Indeed, I do not know of a Welsh poster on here who would back your comments
H/T - David Herdson.
I went back and read David Paton's weekly updates on Sweden through December. Reading those, you'd never have realised that they had their big second wave growing and cresting at the time and through December, their per capita death rate exceeded ours.
1) Wore a mask
2) Locked down a city
3) Cancelled sporting events
4) Knew the root of the problem was a bat.
https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/ shows how Swedeish deathas have updated over time (as well as projecting what final figures will look like
Late Nov, December, January was clown shoes for timely reporting - some of the data in those "14 day" bands arrived over a month later. Unless they are about to dump a whole bunch extra deaths they seem to have got death reporting down to 14-18 days to completion now.
Starmer quite quickly needs to find a balancing figure to Claire Ainsley, and then someone overseeing both of them to thrash out commonalities, which is quite possible at it was in the 1960s. Wilson's Labour extended from working-class patriotism to the Beatles.
I am coping with this but it was a disappointment.
The Tories are clearly worried about their man in Wales, Andrew RT Davies. If you think Drakeford is bad, Davies is 10x worse. Totally useless.
Having said all that, it is a concern for me that if this poll is anywhere near right, Tories are going to do far better than they deserve in May in Wales.
BUT if the outlier is 14 points head, the truth could easily be 11, less easily 8, and unlikely to be less than that.
However, I think it's beyond doubt that the Tories are significantly ahead, vaccines are going well and the economy is reopening. They have not been "incompetent" for quite a long time, in fact I have forgotten when the last real incompetent moment has come out from them.
And so far Labour, they need to dump Dodds immediately and replace her with Reeves. Starmer needs to continue reforming Labour for the better and into an opposition that the country can respect. That takes time - but he is doing that slowly.
As I've said before, if his achievement is Kinnock-style/Smith-style preparation for a future win then so be it. That's sometimes the game you have to play.
I stand by the idea Starmer was still the best candidate and nobody else would be doing better.
Also, a curious outcome of this poll.
On another matter, I've just taken a look at the guest list for the Duke's funeral and I'm pleased to see there’s a place for Prince Richard, the Duke of Gloucester. In all the hubbub around the Royals, especially in recent times, it’s easily forgotten that there are individuals like this, like Prince Richard the Duke of Gloucester, who just go calmly about their business, doing what they do, with no fuss, no ego, no special uniform, never troubling the tabloids or the rolling news. I’d actually never even heard of this chap, that’s how quietly effective he’s been in whatever role he has in the grand scheme of things.
Perhaps its another thing that has swollen to be too big to get rid of and the government are happy to provide it with new variants to work with.
It should be noted that my granddaughter was the top student at her school in last year and she is expecting high A level passes this year
However, because part of the area she lives in is deemed in poverty, and because her school is such a low achieving school, she already has no problems in gaining access to the University of her choice
I agree with you about RT Davies but labour needs to understand it does not have a God given right to be in office in Wales