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Johnson-Starmer approval ratings – the great regional divide – politicalbetting.com
Johnson-Starmer approval ratings – the great regional divide – politicalbetting.com
The above chart has been prepared from the latest Opinium poll which came out for the Observer this evening. Rather than look at the voting numbers which show the Tories with an overall 9% lead what I am focusing on here is how the approval ratings for the two men match up region by region.
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Also, that biggest gap, against PM, is in Wales NOT London.
Does this mean that Boris (if I may be some familiar) will NOT get a vac bump in Welsh Senad elections, contrary to views oft expressed on PB?
And Starmer's ratings in Scotland don't amount to a hill of beans.
SKYE BOAT SONG
Harold Boulton
Speed, bonnie boat, like a bird on the wing
Onward! the sailors cry
Carry the lad that's born to be king
Over the sea to Skye
Loud the winds howl, loud the waves roar
Thunderclaps rend the air
Baffled, our foes stand by the shore
Follow they will not dare
Many's the lad, fought on that day
Well the claymore did wield
When the night came, silently lay
Dead on Culloden's field
Though the waves leap, soft shall ye sleep
Ocean's a royal bed
Rocked in the deep, Flora will keep
Watch by your weary head
Speed, bonnie boat, like a bird on the wing
Onward! the sailors cry
Carry the lad that's born to be king
Over the sea to Skye
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBSqQPP4aVM
Maybe I should apply for permission to write a header! 👍
Most of the Midlands has affordable housing whereas most of the South doesn't.
he came from Greece he had a thirst for knowledge
he studied wafare at a Naval College
That's where I
Caught his eye
he told me that his dad was exiled
I said, in that case I'll have gin and dubonet
he said fine
And then in thirty seconds time he said
I wanna live like royal people
I wanna do whatever royal people do
Wanna sleep with royal people
I wanna sleep with royal people
Like you
Oh what else could I do...
'When I was a 26-year-old ******* I found myself seated next to Prince Philip at a special lunch honouring the 50th anniversary of *************. He was brilliant company, chatty and flirtatious. I told him it was the second time we'd met, because he'd invested me with my gold Duke of Edinburgh's Award at Buckingham Palace 7 years before. "Nonsense," he twinkled. "I'd have remembered YOU." Terribly unPC, and something of a monster in many of his views, but a man with real charm.'
He must have been quite a dude, if he won her over, despite her politics
Starmer plays a long game by all accounts.
But I have not written off GE24 for Labour. Majority, no chance, but hung parliament and enough seats for Starmer PM, very possible.
Let's see how things look a year from now. If it's still a big Con lead then, I will revise my thinking.
Remember they have been in office ever since devolution and have run the NHS and education into the ground and the Valleys are in as much poverty as ever
However, I expect a Plaid Labour coalition is the most likely result
But he's nearly 60. Say he loses in 2023 (could be 2024), then the next election may be 2027 (but that would likely indicate another defeat), by which time he would be 65. Admittedly that's very young by US standards!
I just don't see him doing what Kinnock did who was 50 in 1992.
They won't advance anywhere else, save where demos are moving in their favour - like Brighton.
😊😊😊
I suppose if the GE returns a knife edge hung parliament with a highly unstable Con minority government he might stay in the expectation of another election in short order.
I think he'll fail - because the Tories have moved to the economic centre *and* captured the cultural zeitgeist, leaving Labour nowhere to go -that will mean a Miliband Mark II result.
Which means he'll then be replaced with a Corbyn Mark II in incredulous response by the Roter Frontkämpferbund.
Rinse and repeat.
Young posh graduate women en-masse under the age of 40 are good news for Labour, wherever they cluster.
God knows how I'd date these days if I was still on the scene. I suspect I simply wouldn't get laid.
It shifts very quickly.
My own view is that polls are being taken far too seriously in the current climate. Party politics has been in abeyance for over a year - people are simply not interested - and the polls count for very little.
OTOH if Labour surprise and hold it this will be a positive for their GE24 prospects. It will be a sign that the Con ownership of the WWC Leave political identity is already starting to fray.
https://twitter.com/euobs/status/1380386247466684417
The blocker for many WWC English in Labour strongholds in the past was that, whilst they were very patriotic, they didn't think the Tories were on their side and their economics too self-serving and southern.
Labour has shot itself in both feet on the former and the Tories fixed the latter. I don't see any reason why even more Red Wall seats can't fall to them.
Labour need to fundamentally change to win.
“Approval of the government’s handling of the pandemic overall is net positive for the first time since last May. 44% approve and 36% disapprove. Driving this is approval for handling of the vaccine rollout which remains incredibly strong with 72% approving 8% disapproving, even among Labour voters (71%) and SNP voters (57%).”
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1380958765701160960
Still not heard a convincing reason why, other that it was the most Brexity region.
Really.
The next few years might make people start asking that question again.
Of course, no guarantee that that would necessarily work to Labour's advantage.
> Philip was married to the successor of William & Mary & Anne & Hanoverians who deposed the Stuarts, both he & the missus were/are also Stuart descendants IIRC.
Both Bonnie Prince Charlie & Salty Prince Philip spent lots of time sailing around, the latter more than the former. Charles (the royal one) was (briefly) the toast of Edinburgh, while Philip was the Duke of Edinburgh.
And Phil went to Gordonstoun. Thus product (admittedly a rarefied one) of the Scottish educational system - a claim that Charlie sadly could not boast.
Finally, given his longevity & proclivity highly possible that HRH PP DoE may also have had some lass named Flora keeping watch over HIS weary head . . .
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1380991064450945032?s=19
Union 27%
Green 22%
SPD 15%
AFD 11%
FDP 9%
Left 9%
Others 7%
https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
It's taken a generation to get over that.
Well that would really take a crystal ball.
But I have not written off GE24 for Labour. Majority, no chance, but hung parliament and enough seats for Starmer PM, very possible.
Let's see how things look a year from now. If it's still a big Con lead then, I will revise my thinking.
Labour need to do well in Hartlepool to have any chance. As for running again if he loses, remember it was said a Labour lost last time due to Brexit and Corbyn. Both have gone now. So Starmer should be doing much better if you believe those were the only reasons Labour lost heavily last time.
I expect a Con win in Hartlepool. They are rightly favourites for that seat in this new post Brexit politics and with Brexit looking a good decision because of vaccines. So I won't be plunged into gloom from the Labour viewpoint if that duly happens.
OTOH if Labour surprise and hold it this will be a positive for their GE24 prospects. It will be a sign that the Con ownership of the WWC Leave political identity is already starting to fray.
LAB will win in Hartlepool. Just. If LAB lose in Hartlepool it will be a worse result for them than Bermondsey 1983. Remember after Bermondsey they didn't win a GE for 14 more years.
You're applying the old rules to this new politics. Brexit has changed everything. Hartlepool right now is a stretch for Labour. The Cons are clear odds on favourites in the betting and I think that's right. I got on them a while ago at evens and I expect to collect. If I don't, I'll have the consolation of feeling more bullish about Labour for GE24. On the other hand, even tonight's polls would actually point to an increased Labour majority there. The betting has probably been influenced by a dodgy poll of 302 voters.
I stand to be corrected but as far as I can see from the tables we have a total sub set of 102
With 32%/44% Boris (-12) and 32%/30% Starmer (+2)
Forgive me but is this a bases to suggest Labour will outperform all the recent polls and locals
"The Tories have fixed the latter". Well. They claim to have. I remain to be convinced.
So far I have seen a plethora of fine words, a tiny amount of window dressing and a boatload of liberally sprayed pandemic cash.
Nonetheless, this is 33 years ago, say, when the D of E would have been 66? And my strident leftwing republican Remainer crypto-Corbynite friend was..... 26
And he was still charmingly flirtatious?
Go, dude! Ave atque vale, this hero amongst men. Cancel Masterchef, AGAIN, and put on more endless shows about him; until the end of the year, at least
If I said that the Yorkshire Ripper killed women, then does that mean that he killed some women, or all women?
If I said that Jimmy Saville abused children, then does that mean he abused some children, or all children?
If I said that John Worboys attacked women, then does that mean he attacked some women, or all women?
If I said that Jeremy Corbyn hurt Jews, then does that mean he hurt some Jews, or all Jews?
There is no need to use the word some, it is inherent in the usage of language. Only someone used to classing together by race, religion as one would read that sentence and take it to mean all - you are betraying your own racism in doing so. If someone wants to use the word all they can do so, or use some other equivalent word like "community".
But, of course, the UK is not America.
OR would it be more likely to end up as a CDU/CSU-Green coaltion?
You ARE blunt which is appreciated.
You and I travel different paths.
“This has been the genius of Blairism, to be miles to the Left of Jeremy Corbyn, but to persuade gullible media types that they are actually conservative.
So when film emerged last week of Sir Keir saying he 'often used to propose the abolition of the Monarchy', the main response (if there was any at all) was that it was a long time ago.
So what? Has he really changed his mind, or just his image? In fact, the only way to find out what such people think is often to check what they said before the spin doctors cleaned up their pasts for them.
Last week it also emerged that Sir Keir's party had been seeking advice from the hidden persuaders of marketing, who told them to 'make use' of the flag, veterans and dressing smartly, to win back the trust of working-class voters. “
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-9231889/PETER-HITCHENS-Sir-Keir-Starmers-view-monarchy-really-changed.html
I'm sorry. Anything he has to say after that can be disregarded.
The Tories have weaponised this brilliantly. With the significant assistance of J Corbyn Esq. What a calamity he was
At some point it will become an issue, having an Opposition fundamentally crippled on the issue of "whether they actually like the country, or the people, they seek to govern" but for now it is hilarious
What Labour needs is a leader who seems happily at ease with Britishness, not just tolerant of it, or "respectful". Blair did that, superbly, by inventing Cool Britannia. He embodied it. He was a Brit, and he enioyed being British, but he did it in a new and interesting way
Starmer salutes the flag and looks stiff and earnest. It helps, but it is not enough, I fear - unless Boris and the Tories implode
Labour. Where is your Blair?
Why? Because SDP does NOT appear to be, at this juncture in time, a truly party of government. Very much like Labour in UK and social democratic parties across Europe.
PLUS in a Green-Red-Gold coalition the three-party competition and ideological whipsawing would tend to diminish actual Green impact on government policy & strategy, despite being largest coaliton partner (based on above numbers).
On other hand, while there is clearly some Mutti-fatigue plus CDU corruption scandals (key reasons for drop in center-right support) there is also considerable desire for what Warren Harding famously called normalcy. And that is CDU/CSU.
What the Greens can contribute in this scenario, is some sense of purpose and change. And while they would be in theory the junior partner, they actually have considerable leverage, esp. in two-party scenario. IF they drive a hard bargain.