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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Ashcroft poll finds that the LDs have lost nearly three
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Ashcroft poll finds that the LDs have lost nearly three quarters of the public sector workers who voted for them in 2010
One of the great things about having a large overall sample, as Lord Ashcroft generally does, is that the sub-samples are based on numbers that give more confidence in the findings. This is why Lord Ashcroft polls in this way.
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I see there is a ComRes poll out tonight.
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul 12m
Record high in optimism about the economy: ComRes poll for ITV News tonight pic.twitter.com/ZVd7BKjMPj
To avoid allegations of being too draconian, they should limit it to the fraction of the workforce on less than, say, £80k/year.
Do you or would trust to see the country through the current economic situation?
Y
N
DN
Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne
26%
53%
21%
Prime Minister, David Cameron
32%
50%
18%
Deputy Prime Minister, Nick Clegg
15%
66%
19%
Leader of the Opposition, Ed Miliband
22%
58%
20%
Shadow Chancellor, Ed Balls
17%
60%
23%
Leader of the UK Independence Party, Nigel Farage
15%
61%
24%
So Nigel Farage is even less trusted than Ed Balls. Incredible.
The British people are wise not to put their trust in any politicians but the gap in the level of distrust between Balls and Osborne is growing ever wider.
"The average public sector worker benefits from a 6.1% pay ‘premium’, meaning that they can earn as much as £1,400 a year more than someone in the private sector, taking into account age, gender, full time and part time work, region, qualifications and length of employment. This represents almost a 20% and 8% rise respectively in the premium compared to the same quarters of 2007 and 2010."
http://www.policyexchange.org.uk/publications/category/item/public-and-private-sector-pay-2013-update
The Tea Party are the reason Republicans control the HoR.
Over time, as those made redundant find work elsewhere and differential recruitment rates change the workforce balance between the public and private sectors, the shift might have a political impact.
These numbers show no faith in any of the options. Singling out Mr Farage is silly.
By 2015 there should be approximately 1m fewer public sector workers and nearly 3 m more private sector workers. There will also be several hundred thousand fewer working in the third sector paid for by the government.
I agree with David Herdson that there is no immediate cross over in these figures and many who have been bought out of their public sector berths at very considerable expense may still feel bitter but this country is changing in ways that I am not entirely sure the pollsters pick up.
The change is from the previous poll of 17th December, so a major shift in under a month.
The two Eds have really mistimed the cost of living "crisis" attack. As every month passes the public will see more recovery than crisis.
Still Osborne has to continue to deliver growth through the year and that is not yet a given.
Edit. Replying to the rest of your post, I think the finances of the country are worse than people think. I don't think things will hold together for 5 years of Balls throwing money at everything.
There is not a direct equivalent but those worried that they or their partner might lose their job are down 2% and those not worried are up 10%, again in a single month. People are clearly becoming much more confident (although it is noteworthy that the net confidence figures are still quite low) both for the country and themselves.
The last time one Democrat won election when another Democrat retired as president was before the Civil War, I think? (Though Gore got close)
So although I may no longer work there, public sector-bashing and cries of "we need to strip out all the bloat" aren't likely to win my vote - quite the opposite. (FWIW I found the public sector and the private sector roughly as efficient as each other; roughly speaking, my public sector job wasted more time on meetings, while my private sector jobs have wasted more time swinging between the latest half-baked ideas of management.)
What they do think, with some justification, is that the Tories loathe them.
A lot of public sector workers could be natural Tory voters. They are "small c" conservatives with a sense of civic duty, fair play and respect for authority.
The Tories decided to alienate these voters when they swallowed the mantra that the public sector is always bad, always the enemy.
PBers know I'm a long standing critic of the police.
Want to see another one in action?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/10555381/Abusive-policeman-threatens-to-make-photographers-day-a-living-hell.html
http://www.wiltsglosstandard.co.uk/news/10917210.Police_commisioner_Martin_Surl_questions_investigation_into_complaint_by_photographer_who_says_he_was_threatened_and_abused_by_policeman/
The Tories vaguely try and reign in spending a little bit, which for their clients means that they "must loathe them" or something. After 13 years of having money thrown at them it must have been a bit of a shock so is understandable to an extent.
Edit: Oh and as for "especially after enduring pay restraint and efficiency drives while Brown was still Chancellor." excuse me while I die laughing.
Enough to overturn the democrats' inbuilt black/hispanic/blue collar coalition? I very much doubt it.
Probably uses the term 'civilians' to describe those not in the police.
I earn 28 grand a year, had a 2% payrise in around 5 years, but had significant increases in pension. I suppose my tax has been monkied around with to my benefit, but we lost child tax credits, so I'm probably about where I was in take home pay before the pay freeze, maybe a bit less in real terms.
Chris Gayle is phenomenal... The rest of the Windies team are mediocre at best. In T20 terms they are pretty much the definition of a One-Man Team.
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I cant have that at all... Dwayne Bravo, Darren Sammy, Kieron Pollard, Andre Russell and Sunil Narine are all top quality t20 players
Demographics may be trending the Democrats' way but I'm far from convinced that there's an in-built majority for either party at the moment.
It is clear the Police Sergeant has exceeded his authority and acted in an improper manner, but the photographer was taking pictures of a fatal accident involving an 86 year old woman.
We don't know what the first request from the policeman was nor the initial response from the photographer.
One best left to an independent inquiry to judge on the basis of the full facts rather than trial by media.
Whatever you might say about the Republicans, they are not complacent, and that may make the difference in 2016.
Is there much data on how the :Lib-Lab switchers, and public sector workers, are distributed among the various types of marginal?
This is a genuine question, not a smartarse attempt to catch you out: I remember reading somewhere that a high proportion of firemen have second jobs and one of the sources of friction re overtime and scheduling arrangements was the impact it might have on these second jobs. Is that right? Do you? Is your fireman income your only income?
...and thanks for keeping us all safe BTW - much appreciated...
I realise times are tough and political perceptions will be influenced by current conditions, but we really need evidence here to sort out myth from facts.
Gove is driving teachers mad and the NHS reorganisation is wasting huge amounts of time and money in the health service.
The Republicans are likely to take back the Senate in November (given the nature of the seats that are being contested). They could certainly win in 2016 with the right candidate.
More than ever I have a growing feeling we none of us will have a true idea of the final result until around 1am on the Friday morning after the GE. It feels more and more like 1992 every day.
I have never, and this is genuinely true, known of any of my colleagues to let their second job get in the way. On my watch, we have 12, of them, I know of 4 who have regular second jobs (electrician, builder, wedding photographer, diving instructor).
As for overtime and scheduling, that's down to our employer, and they certainly wouldn't take other jobs into account!
Shouldn't you be adopting the motto of your organisation, "Be Prepared!".
Neither the Gove educational reforms nor the Lansley NHS reorganisation, to the best of my knowledge, had the aims of "annoying public sector workers" although I accept that teachers and medics may be annoyed by them.
What I am looking for is evidence that the Conservatives had an intent to annoy public sector workers, which was after all your original allegation.
His slagging off of an entire profession is costing the Tories dear. Tom Montgomerie has been right to raise his conerns. It's not just those in the state sector who are furious at his constant denigration of them but private sector ones as well. They are a big voting blog and many will use their votes on May 7 2015 to get rid of Gove.
There are about 900-1000 teachers in each constituency.
I don't know what the actual truth of the situation is, but that's not an healthy attitude. If the party as a whole is that complacent about the popularity of Obamacare, they're not likely to do a good job of defending it against Republican attacks, whether or not those attacks are fact based, and that will cost them votes.
And how many parents? Is Gove driving them mad?
And if the subject matter was unsettling, I don't recall the police being appointed the arbiters of decency or taste.
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200809/cmhansrd/cm090401/halltext/90401h0005.htm
I was coming at this much more from the position of decency and taste.
A remarkably high number. Perhaps Michael Gove cannot add up.
If it's an issue, let Parliament debate and change the law. It's not up to PC Plod.
Labour activist @JasminAmelia has tweeted that she wants every producer of Channel 4 dead. If that was a UKIP activist...
Its amazing how these surveys always seem to concentrate on the producer of the service, and not the consumer.
I can't remember a poll on whether parents have seen changes in their kids' education since 2010.
What do parents who send their kids to academies think of them? likewise, free schools.
We need to see the evidence of Gove's "attacks on teachers" and "slagging off of an entire profession".
Some direct quotes might help advance the argument beyond partisan prejudice.
It is one thing to disagree both with a policy and its impact on teachers and quite another to conclude that it is a pre-meditated attempt to attack and demean.
Something like that.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100253217/how-much-would-you-pay-to-reduce-immigration/
Amazing that Labour and their supporters justify working class people being unemployed or on lower wages by corporations getting bigger profits
If they don't understand why people might not love Obamacare like they do, they're not likely to be mentally well prepared to defend it.
So in a situation where somebody has died suddenly in a accident , the photographer (who is taking photos od something very personal )is whinging because some policeman said something nasty to him? Not only that the policeman is being hauled over the coals for it?
Have I got this straight? When did we become so precious in this country?
A messy and inadequate solution to the problem.
Not "I'll make your life a living hell".
I'm a fan of the police unlike TSE, but this incident does them no favours.
What are the respective besetting sins of people in the two sectors? I suggest, in the private: greed and in the public: anger. (A desire to cure illness or to educate children can be seen as a rationalisation of anger at disease or ignorance.)
If I wanted to argue for the slimming down of the public sector I would focus on the selfishness of managers who seek to control others whilst not actually paying them themselves. But then, I think the desire to control another human being, in whatever circumstances, is pretty much Satanic.
Why have we become so self centred and childish?
http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/News/Lucy-Frazer-faces-uncertain-future-as-South-East-Cambridgeshire-Conservative-candidate-amid-claim-miscount-meant-Heidi-Allen-was-real-winner-of-primary-20140107060500.htm
The valid votes in the final round were 132. I don't know how many members the Con Association has but 132 voters don't seem to suggest a high interest among the general public (assuming Con members have the standard turnout)
The cameraman should ask himself "Would I be happy having my mum/dad/son/daughter filmed in such a situation?"
They probably wouldn't.
The police need the most incredible and amazing patience in their job. Every time I watch a demo I emotionally feel like I'm on the police's side. If this one is losing it over a photographer how about when he is actually in a 'pressure' situation ?
What I am looking for is direct evidence that Gove (or for that matter any official member of the government) is deliberately seeking to denigrate workers in the public sector.
Do you have any quotes you can share with us?
http://www.insidetheenvironmentagency.co.uk/
Hardly following any guidelines is it ?
Every day I also give thanks for the amazing work being done by the teachers who are starting the new school year this week.
I am fortunate as Education Secretary because we have the best generation of teachers ever in our classrooms - including the very best generation ever of young teachers - those who have entered our classrooms over the last few years.
Whenever I can, I give thanks for their work - not just privately, but on any public platform I’m given. Including this one.
This government is determined to do all it can to support the teaching profession.
Because there can never have been a more important time to be a teacher.
Teachers hold in their hands the success of our country and the wellbeing of its citizens; they are the key to helping every child in this country to realise their full potential.
Teachers are the most important fighters in the battle to make opportunity more equal.
Teachers are the critical guardians of the intellectual life of the nation.
Teachers give children the tools by which they can become authors of their own life story and builders of a better world.
It is teachers, not poets, who are the unacknowledged legislators of mankind.
http://www.policyexchange.org.uk/modevents/item/michael-gove-keynote-speech-on-the-importance-of-teaching
We live in a world where journalism is becoming democratised. Learn to live with it because I am damn sure that the policeman in question would not have approached a bbc camera crew in that frame of mind and would more likely have given them an interview