A President without precedent: Which record will Biden break in 2024? – politicalbetting.com
A President without precedent: Which record will Biden break in 2024? – politicalbetting.com
No President in the post-war era has not sought re-election*. No President as old as Joe Biden has ever been elected (by a margin of several years). In 2024 one of these records will be broken, and there’s value in betting on which.
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The broadcaster said it was unable to air several shows on Sunday, including Weekend Today.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-56554641
https://twitter.com/CaptJoo2023/status/1376371469060599808
https://twitter.com/CaptJoo2023/status/1376380991460229120
Here’s what she looked like from underneath, before she moved:
https://twitter.com/fruys/status/1376087274719485952
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1376401530597871618?s=20
Good news on the tanker front.
F1: I think the biggest surprise for me is how good AlphaTauri are. Didn't show up in the results, but they're going to give McLaren and Ferrari some serious competition. Impressive debut by Tsunoda.
The Federation of Small Businesses (FSB), a lobby group, said 35 of the 132 exporters it surveyed had temporarily suspended trade with the EU or stopped it permanently. One in 10 of the exporters surveyed said they were also considering giving up trade with EU customers.
Some smaller business have been badly affected by the overnight change in trade rules on 31 December, with new paperwork and a rush to secure delivery space causing widespread delays and extra costs. UK exports to the EU fell by 41% in January, according to government figures.
The Haas already looks awful and it's not being developed. I feel sympathy for Schumacher. Hope he can get a better car quickly, and Mazepin sods off.
And I had a phone call yesterday afternoon booking men in for a second vaccination on Friday.
We need to factor in that people are living longer now. 150 years ago the life expectancy in the US was half (40) what it is now (80). Even since Richard Nixon was President, life expectancy has risen another 10 years. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1040079/life-expectancy-united-states-all-time/
Joe Biden may occasionally sound mentally wayward but at 78 he looks extremely physically fit - fitter than Trump was.
Or, let's put this another way, would anyone seriously doubt that the Queen at 80 should have stood down on health grounds?
Biden also has a 69 year old wife who looks very fit. I think it's a factor to include.
All in all I think Biden will stand again, thus stopping a Democrat internal war.
Once you’ve done that, you’d really need to have an extreme personal circumstance to walk away. I therefore think he’ll run. How the world will look and feel after everyone’s absorbed this info who knows.
The pictures tell a different story. She’s still definitely grounded on the bank at the bow - but with engine running, lots of tugs and a high tide, they might finally get her off the bank tonight. Good luck to them!
https://twitter.com/CaptJoo2023/status/1376414006924214274
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/545178-bidens-plan-for-reelection-freezes-democratic-field
The reports of his mental decline are, IMO, greatly exaggerated.
That could change, but I think he’s more likely than not to be in shape to run again.
I just don’t think it’s credible to have him run again.
I think this is all a load of ageist fuss about nothing. Biden seems on good form and going strong.
Whether he lasts through the whole of his second term though is a slightly different matter. The brilliant move would be to stand again, win and then step aside after two years. The mechanisms for that are less assured in the US than the UK but it's possible.
Either way at the moment I think this is just punters rummaging around in the bottom of the barrel. I agree with Pip Moss. Biden will stand again. No reason for him not to.
It is not credible for the President, who has substantial executive duties and will have to attend a huge number of foreign events, to do that.
Well, I guess we shall have to wait and see but I agree with PipMoss and I think betting against Biden standing again for a second term is throwing away money.
I think, although others may disagree, that my mind is no worse than it was, but I do find myself taking note of my body and, at least sometimes, thinking a bit more carefully about what I'm doing or saying.
My hearing isn't as good now, though, nor is my ability to balance. I find myself grabbing support more often. And I really must sell my bicycle. The thought that I might ride it again worries my wife.
Because this has become our familiar state of mind, known as hyper-arousal, we seek out and search for Breaking News (Sky News are particularly culpable) even if that is the febrile excitement of whether an oil tanker has shifted a couple of metres.
Punters need to be careful about this. There's a tendency to think that hyper-arousal is normal so that when we do return to actual forms of normality we are ever expecting the unusual to occur.
I'd urge people to remember this when betting. It may well be that after all the excitement and horror, ordinary plain bets: bets which for example side with the status quo, will prove the real winners.
* 3 because that is when he would need to be committed to running again.
But should the republicans look like sorting their shit out, then I think Biden looks like a one term president.
While his situation may change rapidly at some point the truth is it will take a lot more than this stuff to make him unviable as a candidate. All this was true in 2020, and he ran and won that time.
Those Chinese teeth aren’t the most reliable
The Tories - formerly the party of business - don't understand how business works. "Can't just just trade with x" is a stupid question. If trade with x was preferable or more profitable or even viable compared to trade with the EU they would already be doing so. Just because the Tories have torpedoed these company's ability to have an export trade with their biggest market doesn't miraculously remove the massive barriers to trade with the rest of the world.
Its not impossible that he will prove resilient enough to run again and I take the point in your header about the ego of those elected to such office believing that they are the only person who can do it. I just think that there will almost inevitably be some health crisis at some point and that will make those around him, including his ambitious wife, think, enough.
He's already waited longer than any other President in modern times to have a press conference. It was not a stellar performance. He is effectively being hidden already. One interesting counterfactual is whether the Covid restrictions on his campaign helped him as much as they clearly hindered his opponent. He may have really struggled with a conventional campaign.
That we are having less difficulties importing is thanks to the government giving up on trying to police the border. It was bloody awful trying to bring samples in at the start of the year, but as soon as they said that all checks were being kicked into the long grass things immediately eased up. The EU have no need to defer because unlike us they were ready for Brexit, hence the one way problems.
The best case scenario now for the UK is that we actually build customs facilities and train officers and have a functioning computer system so that we can do to the EU what they have done to us (at our request). That this will shag our imports of things we need doesn't batter to the zealots, the forriners have to PAY.
The last Director of National Intelligence has just said that not only do they have many more combined video/radar/eye witness incidents akin to USS Nimitz, but satellite imagery as well. Of objects “breaking the sound barrier without causing a sonic boom”. Or Rubio this week: “well we have these things flying over military installations and military exercises. We know they’re not ours, they’re not registered with the FAA and in many cases they’re exhibiting technology the likes of which we’ve never seen before.... it’s very simple. There are things flying over national security assets, we don’t know who they are, we have to find out”.
I am reminded of last year when Sean was correctly taking the piss out of people for debating pay schemes in care homes or whatever it was, as the coronavirus was quietly doing its thing under the surface.
I’ve refrained from saying anything about this so far on Mike’s behalf, given how little UK media coverage there has been I can only assume a D Notice is in place. Now both the guardian and Sunday times are printing it, it’s fair game.
It’s the biggest story of human history. And it’s fascinating how few people seem to have noticed it’s happening.
For most of my business life I have been frustrated by councils and governments telling me how I should run my business when they haven't a clue and have never done it.
https://ideas.ted.com/why-do-so-many-incompetent-men-become-leaders-and-what-can-we-do-about-it/#:~:text=Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic is the chief talent scientist at,and an associate at Harvard's Entrepreneurial Finance Lab.
Get a tricycle, and keep sleeping upstairs. Once you stop being active, it can all go very quickly indeed.
Happened to mum.
More likely, he'll want to be the kingmaker pulling the strings and favouring his preferred candidates in the contest. An invidious position for any such people, given how capricious and potentially unhelpful he can be. I'd say the likelihood of Trump's continuing meddling will be a point in the Dems' favour.
Picking the persistence of extended government powers from yesterday: Very true, and of course there was much more compulsory isolation etc.
I am satisfied if there are short sunset clauses and as little extension as possible. I might even be persuadable of an ID card (yes, I know).
My comment here is about the unlikelihood of powers being withdrawn in the EU. The foundational ethos is "Ever Closer Union", and the establishment mean it.
I do not see them giving competencies back, but the centre is a dog's' dinner. So either bloat followed by eventual fracture as it turns into an elephant balancing on a toadstool, or necessary and painful reform.
Which way will it go?
But your question is quite irrelevant to the main point. Some of the most senior figures in the US are going on the record to say there are physics-defying craft interfering with US military assets.
On topic surely the better bet is election winner than democratic nominee. Hard to see which Republicans beat him, whereas several Democratic candidates including Harris could get beat.
The bet I like the most for WH24 is laying Donald Trump. America has been there, done that. It was emotional for everyone. It was crazy in every sense of the word. It's not the sort of thing you do twice.
The stock market may be inflated beyond "normal reality" but for a sustained crash doesn't something have to be better value? Not sure what that is, unless it is simply cash and a guaranteed loss each year, and that doesn't sound like something todays generations will accept.
What did LadyG call it? Normalcy bias.
The current chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee and the last Director of National Intelligence have in the last week told you in unambiguous terms: that US military assets are being interfered with by craft showing technology not only far beyond that of the US capability but beyond their comprehension.
They have not proffered an explanation but you can draw your own.
I'm reminded of that bit in I'm Alan Partridge when he says: "We discuss issues. Europe, conspiracy theories, what happens if you just eat crisps."
"I don't know if there are aliens. I don't know if they visited here. I'm not, you know, when you talk about that stuff, everyone gets, you know, stigmatized about it," Rubio told TMZ. "My thing is very simple, we don't know what that stuff is that's flying over the top of our installations. Let's find out."
If there are aliens, surely they can avoid detection by US Military?
Not even as if it is a slow news day.
Must be a Thursday. I never could get the hang of Thursdays
I wonder if Prince Andrew has his own.
https://twitter.com/mhairihunter/status/1376431350111215617?s=21
Likely scenarios:
There are aliens and they have not found us.
There are aliens and they have found us but do not get involved as we are irrelevant to them.
There are no aliens.
Unlikely scenarios:
There are aliens and they have kept quiet up to now, but will suddenly cause mass interference with the planet in the next 4 years.
The difference this time is that Congress has the bit between its teeth and will likely demand to know why the Executive is so confident that China or Russia isn’t flying over US nuclear bases with impunity.