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Remember the May 2017 locals when TMay was totally dominant and conquering all before her – politica

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  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,250

    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Good for him - some sane voices remain.
    And yet to listen to the Brexiteers on here the EU/EMA are in charge and are dictating to all their stupidity. Which is true - except that it ISN'T. Member states are free to do as they see fit, which is why we have the contrasting polar opposites of Belgium jabbing away and Italy arresting the vaccine for witchcraft.

    Have we reached the stage yet where Brexiteer ultras are arguing that the EU should be MORE centralised and integrated?
    Does all this straw man nonsense make those foolish enough to oppose us leaving the EU feel a bit better about themselves? Apologies if I have missed it but I have not seen anyone on here say that this is all the fault of the EMA or that it should be. But carry on, I know its a bit embarrassing right now.
    You wilfully miss the point. The EMA provides advice to the member states national health agencies who then make the national decision. There is no big bad EU dictating to members to stop using the Oxford jag - members are free to make their own decisions as they are.

    That "the EU" keeps getting the blame is what is funny - it isn't the EU dictating to Italy to impound vials or Ireland to say "careful now" on national TV or Belgium to say "we're continuing with our vaccination programme".
    No one is saying that it is. No one.
    You are literally foaming on about how we no longer have to listen to the opinions of Germany and France. When it comes to healthcare provision in a pandemic NOBODY need listen to them including neighbouring Belgium and Italy. You keep mentioning the EMA - what about it? The EMA didn't prevent us from creating the VTF, didn't prevent the Italians finding satan in glass vials, didn't prevent the Belgians scratching their heads and continuing to vaccinate.

    The EU is not the Big Bad. It is not dictating to members. If Germany wants to be stupid thats up to Germany. But it isn't directing the Italians to be insane.

    No you're not entirely right.

    The EU haven't made this decision but they have laid the groundwork for it by like an arsonist undermining the Astrazeneca vaccine months ago - and then their obsession they encourage of "unity" and "solidarity" between members such that when Germany acts France may not be obliged technically to follow but they feel compelled to.

    The EU started this months ago when they went to war with Astrazeneca in a very public and silly manner. They may not be the ones acting today but others are following in their footsteps, actions have consequences.
    Hmmm, the EU demanded MORE doses in a very public and silly manner.
    Yes claiming falsely that Astrazeneca were engaged in dodgy behaviour, breaking contracts, not following the rules.

    You don't see how people here the EU falsely claiming that "Astrazeneca are dodgy and not following the rules" and make a connection from that to thinking they're unsafe?
    Just repeating an evidence-free assertion (with made-up "quotes"), that so far as I can tell is just based on your own prejudice rather than any knowledge or understanding isn't going to convince me.

    So based on my own experience in Germany:
    I think that the EU trying everything to get AZ to deliver more doses did not affect people's confidence in the vaccine.
    Also, the fact that AZ is a UK-headquartered multinational is not a negative factor in people's confidence, nor is the involvement of Oxford University. If anything, the reverse.
    Another view:

    https://twitter.com/phil_ipp_fritz/status/1371793208947175431?s=20
    Well that alternative conspiracy theory - that it's the other pharma companies trying to trash AZ - at least has the benefit that it almost makes logical sense from the point of view of "who benefits?"

    Still seems like a load of bollocks to me.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour's going to have to campaign on nurses' pay. It's the only slight weak spot I can think of for the Tories that might resonate tbh.

    And cronyism
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,610
    edited March 2021
    Hartlepool had the second highest Tory + Brexit Party percentage share in a seat that wasn't won by the Tories. Barnsley East was slightly higher.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,233
    This is interesting as closer to a like-for-like replacement for gas boilers than heat pumps.

    I think I'd definitely prefer a heat pump in a new build, but this looks like a more credible option for a lot of existing properties.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/16/first-microwave-powered-home-boiler-could-help-cut-emissions
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,115
    felix said:

    Brom said:

    It's an election which all parties need to go for. No soft pedals. A must win for Starmer I'm sure, if he loses, then the knives will be out.

    (I expect a labour hold).
    If the Tories use Ben Houchen bigly on the campaign trail they've got a huge chance.

    Labour should pick Peter Mandelson as their candidate for the lols
    Naah. Pick Laura Pillock. She can go 3 for 3 in safe Labour seats lost to the Tories.
    Oh my word - I'd not thought of that possibility - she really could tip it over to the blue side!
    Labour thinks it can never have too many thick gob-shites....
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour's going to have to campaign on nurses' pay. It's the only slight weak spot I can think of for the Tories that might resonate tbh.

    All that money from taxpayers funnelled to Tory donors and friends is something the focus groups keep on picking up.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,534

    On Starmer's assertion that 'over 50% of victims of violent crime are women', I think it is unlikely that he has made it up; he's not stupid.

    The more likely explanation is that he's using data from the England and Wales Crime Survey (used to be the British Crime Survey). This survey focuses on victims of crime, on the basis that reported crime statistics are, by their very nature, unreliable; most crimes are not, in fact, reported. Most criminologists take much more notice of the Crime Survey than they do of reported crime statistics. So a crime survey will pick up, for example, a much higher incidence of (unreported) domestic violence and sexual assaults against women.

    If I'm right, it would have been helpful if Starmer had explained that in his tweet.

    The trouble is whenever I hear that something is more than x, I immediately assume it is only just more than x. (E,g. more the 78% of Swindon's games end in defeat for the reds - it'll be 79%). It's journalese, where you can never say the same thing twice.
    One of the genders is going to be over 50% and one under 50%. This is getting discussed as if there is some sort of merit in it being one or the other. What is certain, since the figures can't be easily massaged, is that over 60% of homicide victims are male. (Should I start to think that this is a scandal only to be sorted by increasing the female %?. The discussion is madness.)

  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,445

    Artist said:

    Question is why 26% of people in Hartlepool voted for the Brexit Party in a pretty close seat when the Tories basically stood on implementing Brexit. May be pro-Brexit, never Tory types. UKIP being squeezed benefitted Labour more there in 2017.

    BXP kyboshed a Tory landslide across the North East. Having chatted to their team in Stockton their main motivation was because they had to keep pressure on the Tories to deliver proper Brexit.

    They can run in Pools but with respect to whatever they are called this week it won't remotely connect with people. "You want reform?" they'll say, "thats why we're voting Tory".
    Astonishing to think things could have actually been worse for Labour in the NE.
    Good local info on the Hartlepool CLP. Thanks. Amazing that a seat that in recent memory was occupied by Peter Mandelson is now a hard-left redoubt.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Good for him - some sane voices remain.
    And yet to listen to the Brexiteers on here the EU/EMA are in charge and are dictating to all their stupidity. Which is true - except that it ISN'T. Member states are free to do as they see fit, which is why we have the contrasting polar opposites of Belgium jabbing away and Italy arresting the vaccine for witchcraft.

    Have we reached the stage yet where Brexiteer ultras are arguing that the EU should be MORE centralised and integrated?
    Does all this straw man nonsense make those foolish enough to oppose us leaving the EU feel a bit better about themselves? Apologies if I have missed it but I have not seen anyone on here say that this is all the fault of the EMA or that it should be. But carry on, I know its a bit embarrassing right now.
    You wilfully miss the point. The EMA provides advice to the member states national health agencies who then make the national decision. There is no big bad EU dictating to members to stop using the Oxford jag - members are free to make their own decisions as they are.

    That "the EU" keeps getting the blame is what is funny - it isn't the EU dictating to Italy to impound vials or Ireland to say "careful now" on national TV or Belgium to say "we're continuing with our vaccination programme".
    No one is saying that it is. No one.
    You are literally foaming on about how we no longer have to listen to the opinions of Germany and France. When it comes to healthcare provision in a pandemic NOBODY need listen to them including neighbouring Belgium and Italy. You keep mentioning the EMA - what about it? The EMA didn't prevent us from creating the VTF, didn't prevent the Italians finding satan in glass vials, didn't prevent the Belgians scratching their heads and continuing to vaccinate.

    The EU is not the Big Bad. It is not dictating to members. If Germany wants to be stupid thats up to Germany. But it isn't directing the Italians to be insane.

    No you're not entirely right.

    The EU haven't made this decision but they have laid the groundwork for it by like an arsonist undermining the Astrazeneca vaccine months ago - and then their obsession they encourage of "unity" and "solidarity" between members such that when Germany acts France may not be obliged technically to follow but they feel compelled to.

    The EU started this months ago when they went to war with Astrazeneca in a very public and silly manner. They may not be the ones acting today but others are following in their footsteps, actions have consequences.
    Hmmm, the EU demanded MORE doses in a very public and silly manner.
    Yes claiming falsely that Astrazeneca were engaged in dodgy behaviour, breaking contracts, not following the rules.

    You don't see how people here the EU falsely claiming that "Astrazeneca are dodgy and not following the rules" and make a connection from that to thinking they're unsafe?
    Just repeating an evidence-free assertion (with made-up "quotes"), that so far as I can tell is just based on your own prejudice rather than any knowledge or understanding isn't going to convince me.

    So based on my own experience in Germany:
    I think that the EU trying everything to get AZ to deliver more doses did not affect people's confidence in the vaccine.
    Also, the fact that AZ is a UK-headquartered multinational is not a negative factor in people's confidence, nor is the involvement of Oxford University. If anything, the reverse.
    Another view:

    https://twitter.com/phil_ipp_fritz/status/1371793208947175431?s=20
    Well that alternative conspiracy theory - that it's the other pharma companies trying to trash AZ - at least has the benefit that it almost makes logical sense from the point of view of "who benefits?"

    Still seems like a load of bollocks to me.
    Something is going on. Why else is there no reaction to similar cases of blood clots with the other vaccines?
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    Could Starmer be the first LOTO to lose two by elections to the government in the same year?

    What is the other one? Brabin?
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,610
    RobD said:

    Don't worry, he's been deleting a lot of his pro-EU tweets in the last hour or so.
    "Views on the European Union

    While Stockton-on-Tees voted to leave the European Union, Williams was in favour of Britain remaining in the European Union, having stated that "no form of Brexit is better than the deal we already have as members of the European Union", and broke the Labour Party whip on six occasions to support a public vote on the UK's exit from the EU."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Williams_(Labour_politician)
  • Options
    Christ, I've been on PB a long time, I remember the 2004 Hartlepool by election that was I think the third by election PB covered.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,983
    edited March 2021
    Hartlepool looks like a clear Tory gain to me. Rochdale's analysis is spot on, the centre-left regional HQ in Newcastle will try to run the campaign from there, against daily opposition from the Teesside hard-left nutters.
  • Options
    felix said:

    Could Starmer be the first LOTO to lose two by elections to the government in the same year?

    What is the other one? Brabin?
    Yes, but we'll have to wait until the start of May for official confirmation.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079

    This is interesting as closer to a like-for-like replacement for gas boilers than heat pumps.

    I think I'd definitely prefer a heat pump in a new build, but this looks like a more credible option for a lot of existing properties.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/16/first-microwave-powered-home-boiler-could-help-cut-emissions

    Hmm. It doesn't look great to me. 96% sounds "efficient" but a heat pump properly installed and configured in a well insulated property will give you 4-5 times the output in heat than the input in electricity.

    There's probably a very good reason this hasn't been brought to market before.
  • Options
    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    RobD said:

    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Good for him - some sane voices remain.
    And yet to listen to the Brexiteers on here the EU/EMA are in charge and are dictating to all their stupidity. Which is true - except that it ISN'T. Member states are free to do as they see fit, which is why we have the contrasting polar opposites of Belgium jabbing away and Italy arresting the vaccine for witchcraft.

    Have we reached the stage yet where Brexiteer ultras are arguing that the EU should be MORE centralised and integrated?
    Does all this straw man nonsense make those foolish enough to oppose us leaving the EU feel a bit better about themselves? Apologies if I have missed it but I have not seen anyone on here say that this is all the fault of the EMA or that it should be. But carry on, I know its a bit embarrassing right now.
    You wilfully miss the point. The EMA provides advice to the member states national health agencies who then make the national decision. There is no big bad EU dictating to members to stop using the Oxford jag - members are free to make their own decisions as they are.

    That "the EU" keeps getting the blame is what is funny - it isn't the EU dictating to Italy to impound vials or Ireland to say "careful now" on national TV or Belgium to say "we're continuing with our vaccination programme".
    No one is saying that it is. No one.
    You are literally foaming on about how we no longer have to listen to the opinions of Germany and France. When it comes to healthcare provision in a pandemic NOBODY need listen to them including neighbouring Belgium and Italy. You keep mentioning the EMA - what about it? The EMA didn't prevent us from creating the VTF, didn't prevent the Italians finding satan in glass vials, didn't prevent the Belgians scratching their heads and continuing to vaccinate.

    The EU is not the Big Bad. It is not dictating to members. If Germany wants to be stupid thats up to Germany. But it isn't directing the Italians to be insane.

    No you're not entirely right.

    The EU haven't made this decision but they have laid the groundwork for it by like an arsonist undermining the Astrazeneca vaccine months ago - and then their obsession they encourage of "unity" and "solidarity" between members such that when Germany acts France may not be obliged technically to follow but they feel compelled to.

    The EU started this months ago when they went to war with Astrazeneca in a very public and silly manner. They may not be the ones acting today but others are following in their footsteps, actions have consequences.
    Hmmm, the EU demanded MORE doses in a very public and silly manner.
    Yes claiming falsely that Astrazeneca were engaged in dodgy behaviour, breaking contracts, not following the rules.

    You don't see how people here the EU falsely claiming that "Astrazeneca are dodgy and not following the rules" and make a connection from that to thinking they're unsafe?
    Just repeating an evidence-free assertion (with made-up "quotes"), that so far as I can tell is just based on your own prejudice rather than any knowledge or understanding isn't going to convince me.

    So based on my own experience in Germany:
    I think that the EU trying everything to get AZ to deliver more doses did not affect people's confidence in the vaccine.
    Also, the fact that AZ is a UK-headquartered multinational is not a negative factor in people's confidence, nor is the involvement of Oxford University. If anything, the reverse.
    Another view:

    https://twitter.com/phil_ipp_fritz/status/1371793208947175431?s=20
    Well that alternative conspiracy theory - that it's the other pharma companies trying to trash AZ - at least has the benefit that it almost makes logical sense from the point of view of "who benefits?"

    Still seems like a load of bollocks to me.
    Something is going on. Why else is there no reaction to similar cases of blood clots with the other vaccines?
    2 products with identical efficacy profiles and safety profiles, but the one which costs 1/9th of the price of the other is getting constantly attacked.

    Given their keeness to go after big tech for market manipulation, I'm surprised the EU competititon commission hasn't got involved.
  • Options
    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Pulpstar said:

    Labour's going to have to campaign on nurses' pay. It's the only slight weak spot I can think of for the Tories that might resonate tbh.

    All that money from taxpayers funnelled to Tory donors and friends is something the focus groups keep on picking up.
    Maybe they'll pick up on all the money being funnelled to Tory constituencies too. After the Budget, Labour, in their infinite, er, wisdom, thought that that would be a not-at-all-counterproductive line of attack...
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,965
    Meanwhile.
    The return of God.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/56411997
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,280
    dixiedean said:
    Who needs a vaccine when you have Zlatan?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    This is interesting as closer to a like-for-like replacement for gas boilers than heat pumps.

    I think I'd definitely prefer a heat pump in a new build, but this looks like a more credible option for a lot of existing properties.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/16/first-microwave-powered-home-boiler-could-help-cut-emissions

    Hmm. It doesn't look great to me. 96% sounds "efficient" but a heat pump properly installed and configured in a well insulated property will give you 4-5 times the output in heat than the input in electricity.

    There's probably a very good reason this hasn't been brought to market before.
    They've broken the laws of thermodynamics? They can't do that!
  • Options
    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    Also amusing given the initial explanation for EU failures on vaccine procurement was a focus on cost, that they're now burning bridges with the vastly cheaper option, and filling up on the Pfizer profiteering effort.

    So they're going to be much slower AND much more expensive than us.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    RobD said:

    This is interesting as closer to a like-for-like replacement for gas boilers than heat pumps.

    I think I'd definitely prefer a heat pump in a new build, but this looks like a more credible option for a lot of existing properties.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/16/first-microwave-powered-home-boiler-could-help-cut-emissions

    Hmm. It doesn't look great to me. 96% sounds "efficient" but a heat pump properly installed and configured in a well insulated property will give you 4-5 times the output in heat than the input in electricity.

    There's probably a very good reason this hasn't been brought to market before.
    They've broken the laws of thermodynamics? They can't do that!
    Well a heat pump takes the latent heat in the air or the ground and puts it into your house. Like a fridge takes the heat out of your sausages and dumps it into your kitchen.

    All this "microwave" boiler is doing is heating up water using direct electricity.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    RobD said:

    This is interesting as closer to a like-for-like replacement for gas boilers than heat pumps.

    I think I'd definitely prefer a heat pump in a new build, but this looks like a more credible option for a lot of existing properties.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/16/first-microwave-powered-home-boiler-could-help-cut-emissions

    Hmm. It doesn't look great to me. 96% sounds "efficient" but a heat pump properly installed and configured in a well insulated property will give you 4-5 times the output in heat than the input in electricity.

    There's probably a very good reason this hasn't been brought to market before.
    They've broken the laws of thermodynamics? They can't do that!
    Well a heat pump takes the latent heat in the air or the ground and puts it into your house. Like a fridge takes the heat out of your sausages and dumps it into your kitchen.

    All this "microwave" boiler is doing is heating up water using direct electricity.
    Hm, can't the heat pump be powered by electricity? Where's the gas coming into it?
  • Options
    LennonLennon Posts: 1,733
    algarkirk said:

    On Starmer's assertion that 'over 50% of victims of violent crime are women', I think it is unlikely that he has made it up; he's not stupid.

    The more likely explanation is that he's using data from the England and Wales Crime Survey (used to be the British Crime Survey). This survey focuses on victims of crime, on the basis that reported crime statistics are, by their very nature, unreliable; most crimes are not, in fact, reported. Most criminologists take much more notice of the Crime Survey than they do of reported crime statistics. So a crime survey will pick up, for example, a much higher incidence of (unreported) domestic violence and sexual assaults against women.

    If I'm right, it would have been helpful if Starmer had explained that in his tweet.

    The trouble is whenever I hear that something is more than x, I immediately assume it is only just more than x. (E,g. more the 78% of Swindon's games end in defeat for the reds - it'll be 79%). It's journalese, where you can never say the same thing twice.
    One of the genders is going to be over 50% and one under 50%. This is getting discussed as if there is some sort of merit in it being one or the other. What is certain, since the figures can't be easily massaged, is that over 60% of homicide victims are male. (Should I start to think that this is a scandal only to be sorted by increasing the female %?. The discussion is madness.)

    Careful - you'll have a load of complaints that you're being gender binary with comments like that. ;)
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    The Labour candidate doesn't have to be explicitly pro-Brexit. They just have to not be militantly pro-Remain. A non-political candidate is therefore much more desirable.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,659

    TimT said:

    "Central theme is not trade or military, but science and technology". Duh! Science and technology drive both military and economic/trade.
    I'd prefer to read the report myself really rather than all these journalist "hot takes".
    https://www.scribd.com/document/498974238/Integrated-Review#download
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    This is interesting as closer to a like-for-like replacement for gas boilers than heat pumps.

    I think I'd definitely prefer a heat pump in a new build, but this looks like a more credible option for a lot of existing properties.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/16/first-microwave-powered-home-boiler-could-help-cut-emissions

    Hmm. It doesn't look great to me. 96% sounds "efficient" but a heat pump properly installed and configured in a well insulated property will give you 4-5 times the output in heat than the input in electricity.

    There's probably a very good reason this hasn't been brought to market before.
    They've broken the laws of thermodynamics? They can't do that!
    Well a heat pump takes the latent heat in the air or the ground and puts it into your house. Like a fridge takes the heat out of your sausages and dumps it into your kitchen.

    All this "microwave" boiler is doing is heating up water using direct electricity.
    Hm, can't the heat pump be powered by electricity? Where's the gas coming into it?
    What do you mean? A heat pump is powered by electricity. But setup correctly, you'll get more than 4 times the heat out than electricity in because it's not using electricity to heat water directly, it's using the electricity to take the latent heat out of the air or the ground.

    Direct electrical heating can never be more than 100% efficient but a heat pump can be.
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    DougSeal said:
    Unfortunately, positive tests (not cases) will probably rise today or tomorrow (thanks to a huge acceleration in testing), and that will be used by the Zero Covid psychopaths as evidence to delay the roadmap. You're going to be able to set your watch by them.
    Well, let's wait and see. It's now been a week since the schools went back and the case rate seems to be staying flat.

    In other news (and apologies if this was covered earlier,) the overall UK total for registered deaths for the first week of March has now been published and is back within the normal range for the time of year. Hopefully this means that we're now well into the tail end of the last wave of Covid-19 as well as the last lockdown.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    This is interesting as closer to a like-for-like replacement for gas boilers than heat pumps.

    I think I'd definitely prefer a heat pump in a new build, but this looks like a more credible option for a lot of existing properties.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/16/first-microwave-powered-home-boiler-could-help-cut-emissions

    Hmm. It doesn't look great to me. 96% sounds "efficient" but a heat pump properly installed and configured in a well insulated property will give you 4-5 times the output in heat than the input in electricity.

    There's probably a very good reason this hasn't been brought to market before.
    They've broken the laws of thermodynamics? They can't do that!
    Well a heat pump takes the latent heat in the air or the ground and puts it into your house. Like a fridge takes the heat out of your sausages and dumps it into your kitchen.

    All this "microwave" boiler is doing is heating up water using direct electricity.
    Hm, can't the heat pump be powered by electricity? Where's the gas coming into it?
    What do you mean? A heat pump is powered by electricity. But setup correctly, you'll get more than 4 times the heat out than electricity in because it's not using electricity to heat water directly, it's using the electricity to take the latent heat out of the air or the ground.

    Direct electrical heating can never be more than 100% efficient but a heat pump can be.
    Oh, the article was mentioning that these are drop-in replacements for gas boilers, rather than alternatives to this other technology.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    Nigelb said:

    .

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Cyclefree said:

    From @noneoftheabove on one of the previous threads:-

    "Historians looking back at our society in a 100 years time will be entirely baffled why our solution to everything is "more laws, implemented quickly without much discussion or thought" at the same time as we want to cut costs in policing, prisons and the court system. How does anyone ever expect this combination will work?"

    I have been making this point on here for years now. The reaction of many of those who comment (and most don't care) is to say that this is special pleading by lawyers. Well, it bloody well isn't. It's pointing out the bleeding obvious. If you won't pay for a decent justice system to implement your laws, passing new laws is a total waste of time.

    Some day someone in government might realise this. I am not holding my breath.

    But that costs money while a set of new laws is very cheap and looks like you've done something.

    As I've pointed numerous times recently the new laws make front page news and people think - nice. The implementation is completely irrelevant unless you are unlucky enough to be a victim of crime.

    Sadly most people aren't victims of crime so don't know anything beyond the nice headlines.
    Some years ago now I used to represent the Crown in sentence appeals. When I started it was taking over a year for appeals to be heard from summary cases where the sentence was less than 12 months. This caused a series of problems.

    Firstly, the connection between the offence and the punishment, already often tenuous given the long trial period became virtually non existent. Secondly, almost everyone (except the more serious solemn cases where the sentence ran to a number of years) was on bail. This caused a plethora of problems from absconding, being overtaken by subsequent offending, a reluctance on the part of the court to send someone back to prison for a relatively short period of time, especially if he had got a job, etc etc.

    Some resources went into the process which was also improved by a sift which weeded out the more hopeless appeals. The result was a substantial reduction in the time taken by the appeal, less bail and far, far fewer appeals. It was win, win, win. I fear with Covid some of that gain will have been lost.

    What I also found in my days as a fiscal prosecuting in the Sheriff court (quite a brief period some time ago now) is that there was a clear correlation between the speed with which things could be brought to trial and the conviction rate. I don't have statistics for that but the correlation was strong. People who knew each other could still ID of course although all too often they had made up. Those who didn't know the accused were entirely understandably somewhat hesitant.

    Fast justice is better justice, cheaper justice and more effective justice. Resourcing our courts to process the Himalayan mountain range of cases now pending is far more important than anything else that could be done for the criminal justice system. My guess is that a lot of the more trivial stuff will just never make it to trial.
    It would be good imo if we could view the CJS as infrastructure rather than overhead. Because it is, really. It's what keeps the show on the road. Unfortunately, just as health often seems to reduce to "more nurses", for law & order it's "more bobbies on the beat". I suppose the reason is that there's precious few votes in anything else.
    I think that's wrong.
    It would probably take an entire 5 year term to see results that the public actually noticed (so there's little chance of any serious reform under the current lot), but investment in a working criminal justice system, and properly resourcing (for example) fraud investigation and prosecution would in time prove more popular than the current cynical mess.
    Well perhaps Labour will pick this up as a campaign issue. Their leader certainly has the background for it. I saw the other day that only 3% of rapes reported lead to a charge. Most people, regardless of political affiliation, will surely be shocked by that and think it a sign of something amiss.
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,304
    I'm not convinced. Brexit clearly won't delivery any land of milk and honey, and no one is now pretending that it will. For that reason most the emotion has gone out of the issue. A few obsessives aside, the Leave/Remain split is now looking increasingly like a mere academic position. Political careers will no longer fall or rise over it.
  • Options
    So remember when I said there's no way the banks are going anywhere near NFTs and cryptocurrencies....

    The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has started criminal proceedings against NatWest over allegedly failing to comply with money laundering rules.

    The City watchdog claims "increasingly large cash deposits" were made into a UK account, alleging around £365m was paid in, including £264m in cash.

    It alleges that NatWest's systems and controls failed to adequately monitor and scrutinise this activity.

    NatWest said it had been co-operating with the FCA.

    In a statement, NatWest said it "takes extremely seriously its responsibility to seek to prevent money laundering by third parties and accordingly has made significant, multi-year investments in its financial crime systems and controls".

    No individuals are being charged as part of the proceedings.

    The FCA said the case marked the first criminal prosecution under the money laundering regulations and the first against a bank.

    The allegations date back to between 2011 and 2016.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56412393
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    This is interesting as closer to a like-for-like replacement for gas boilers than heat pumps.

    I think I'd definitely prefer a heat pump in a new build, but this looks like a more credible option for a lot of existing properties.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/16/first-microwave-powered-home-boiler-could-help-cut-emissions

    Hmm. It doesn't look great to me. 96% sounds "efficient" but a heat pump properly installed and configured in a well insulated property will give you 4-5 times the output in heat than the input in electricity.

    There's probably a very good reason this hasn't been brought to market before.
    They've broken the laws of thermodynamics? They can't do that!
    Well a heat pump takes the latent heat in the air or the ground and puts it into your house. Like a fridge takes the heat out of your sausages and dumps it into your kitchen.

    All this "microwave" boiler is doing is heating up water using direct electricity.
    Hm, can't the heat pump be powered by electricity? Where's the gas coming into it?
    What do you mean? A heat pump is powered by electricity. But setup correctly, you'll get more than 4 times the heat out than electricity in because it's not using electricity to heat water directly, it's using the electricity to take the latent heat out of the air or the ground.

    Direct electrical heating can never be more than 100% efficient but a heat pump can be.
    Oh, the article was mentioning that these are drop-in replacements for gas boilers, rather than alternatives to this other technology.
    Oh I see. Yes, the article is correct on that — a heat pump will usually require underfloor heating or new radiators to run effectively. This is a drop-in replacement, but I question whether this is actually going to save money compared to gas. There's a reason why people like gas central heating systems rather than direct electrical systems such as storage heaters — heating using direct electricity is expensive.

    Save emissions? Sure. If the electricity is being generated using clean methods. Save money? Doubtful.
  • Options
    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,244

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    This is interesting as closer to a like-for-like replacement for gas boilers than heat pumps.

    I think I'd definitely prefer a heat pump in a new build, but this looks like a more credible option for a lot of existing properties.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/16/first-microwave-powered-home-boiler-could-help-cut-emissions

    Hmm. It doesn't look great to me. 96% sounds "efficient" but a heat pump properly installed and configured in a well insulated property will give you 4-5 times the output in heat than the input in electricity.

    There's probably a very good reason this hasn't been brought to market before.
    They've broken the laws of thermodynamics? They can't do that!
    Well a heat pump takes the latent heat in the air or the ground and puts it into your house. Like a fridge takes the heat out of your sausages and dumps it into your kitchen.

    All this "microwave" boiler is doing is heating up water using direct electricity.
    Hm, can't the heat pump be powered by electricity? Where's the gas coming into it?
    What do you mean? A heat pump is powered by electricity. But setup correctly, you'll get more than 4 times the heat out than electricity in because it's not using electricity to heat water directly, it's using the electricity to take the latent heat out of the air or the ground.

    Direct electrical heating can never be more than 100% efficient but a heat pump can be.
    There's a very large block of properties in the UK that are not particular energy efficient and cannot be made to be, meaning heat transfer tech is probably a non-starter. And another group again that are not even on mains gas, so can't be realistically retrograded to a hydrogen boiler. It's a pickle to be sure. I suspect it will be solved using biofuels.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,115
    Any chance the former MP will stand as an independent?
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,735

    I'm not convinced. Brexit clearly won't delivery any land of milk and honey, and no one is now pretending that it will. For that reason most the emotion has gone out of the issue. A few obsessives aside, the Leave/Remain split is now looking increasingly like a mere academic position. Political careers will no longer fall or rise over it.
    The Tories will still be campaigning on leaving the EU in 2029, let alone 2021.
  • Options
    The PM really is doing Corbyn's work.

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1371807527780880389
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    moonshine said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    This is interesting as closer to a like-for-like replacement for gas boilers than heat pumps.

    I think I'd definitely prefer a heat pump in a new build, but this looks like a more credible option for a lot of existing properties.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/16/first-microwave-powered-home-boiler-could-help-cut-emissions

    Hmm. It doesn't look great to me. 96% sounds "efficient" but a heat pump properly installed and configured in a well insulated property will give you 4-5 times the output in heat than the input in electricity.

    There's probably a very good reason this hasn't been brought to market before.
    They've broken the laws of thermodynamics? They can't do that!
    Well a heat pump takes the latent heat in the air or the ground and puts it into your house. Like a fridge takes the heat out of your sausages and dumps it into your kitchen.

    All this "microwave" boiler is doing is heating up water using direct electricity.
    Hm, can't the heat pump be powered by electricity? Where's the gas coming into it?
    What do you mean? A heat pump is powered by electricity. But setup correctly, you'll get more than 4 times the heat out than electricity in because it's not using electricity to heat water directly, it's using the electricity to take the latent heat out of the air or the ground.

    Direct electrical heating can never be more than 100% efficient but a heat pump can be.
    There's a very large block of properties in the UK that are not particular energy efficient and cannot be made to be, meaning heat transfer tech is probably a non-starter. And another group again that are not even on mains gas, so can't be realistically retrograded to a hydrogen boiler. It's a pickle to be sure. I suspect it will be solved using biofuels.
    100% agree. However the product here seems to be marketed towards new builds, who should have no problem being energy efficient enough. To me it sounds like a "loop hole" for house builders to pretend they're being green but they're not.
  • Options
    Did the PM also give an explanation for why we're going to increase our nuclear stocks?

    I fear Johnson is about to recreate the mistake of Mrs Thatcher, spending sooo much money on our nuclear deterrent and cutting our conventional forces to the bone.
  • Options
    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561

    Pulpstar said:

    Labour's going to have to campaign on nurses' pay. It's the only slight weak spot I can think of for the Tories that might resonate tbh.

    All that money from taxpayers funnelled to Tory donors and friends is something the focus groups keep on picking up.
    Maybe they'll pick up on all the money being funnelled to Tory constituencies too. After the Budget, Labour, in their infinite, er, wisdom, thought that that would be a not-at-all-counterproductive line of attack...
    Well it may not be if they're hoping to win those constituencies back next time.

    It's also a bit rich given how much Gordon Brown took from Conservative areas to give to Labour ones during his time.
  • Options
    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,244

    I'm not convinced. Brexit clearly won't delivery any land of milk and honey, and no one is now pretending that it will. For that reason most the emotion has gone out of the issue. A few obsessives aside, the Leave/Remain split is now looking increasingly like a mere academic position. Political careers will no longer fall or rise over it.
    The Tories will still be campaigning on leaving the EU in 2029, let alone 2021.
    It will be easy to target certain groups of voters / certain seats with direct marketing reminding everyone that Kier/Keir Starmer was Arch Cardinal of Remoanerism. Anyone else will be able to move past the issue.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    "More nukes less troops".

    At least @HYUFD can be happy. Nukes are more effective willy-waving props.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,426
    edited March 2021
    Fishing said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Labour's going to have to campaign on nurses' pay. It's the only slight weak spot I can think of for the Tories that might resonate tbh.

    All that money from taxpayers funnelled to Tory donors and friends is something the focus groups keep on picking up.
    Maybe they'll pick up on all the money being funnelled to Tory constituencies too. After the Budget, Labour, in their infinite, er, wisdom, thought that that would be a not-at-all-counterproductive line of attack...
    Well it may not be if they're hoping to win those constituencies back next time.

    It's also a bit rich given how much Gordon Brown took from Conservative areas to give to Labour ones during his time.
    Gordon Brown is not the role model any Prime Minister, let alone a Conservative Prime Minister, should emulate.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,926
    Middlesbrough looks to be the last true Labour stronghold in that part of the Northeast.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,280
    To be honest if 10k troops were replaced by 2k drones we would probably have a more effective army going forward.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    edited March 2021
    Pulpstar said:

    Middlesbrough looks to be the last true Labour stronghold in that part of the Northeast.

    Well it's effectively the only "city" on Teesside and it also has a university.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190

    "More nukes less troops".

    At least @HYUFD can be happy. Nukes are more effective willy-waving props.
    Far easier just to press a button.
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,304
    Is signing up to the Euro Army still an option? Might be a way of guaranteeing capacity safe from Boris's scissors.
  • Options
    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Ah, but it's the location of the troops that matters. Field Marshal HYUFD tells me that, by complete coincidence, all 10,000 will be cut from Scotland, just in time for the inv... er, nothing, nothing at all...
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,735

    So remember when I said there's no way the banks are going anywhere near NFTs and cryptocurrencies....

    The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has started criminal proceedings against NatWest over allegedly failing to comply with money laundering rules.

    The City watchdog claims "increasingly large cash deposits" were made into a UK account, alleging around £365m was paid in, including £264m in cash.

    It alleges that NatWest's systems and controls failed to adequately monitor and scrutinise this activity.

    NatWest said it had been co-operating with the FCA.

    In a statement, NatWest said it "takes extremely seriously its responsibility to seek to prevent money laundering by third parties and accordingly has made significant, multi-year investments in its financial crime systems and controls".

    No individuals are being charged as part of the proceedings.

    The FCA said the case marked the first criminal prosecution under the money laundering regulations and the first against a bank.

    The allegations date back to between 2011 and 2016.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56412393

    Isnt it entirely expected that a money service business would deposit increasingly large cash deposits? Are only failing business with declining turnover going to be allowed bank accounts?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,216
    Floater said:

    A crisis threatens to engulf Angela Merkel’s government over her decision to suspend use of the AstraZeneca vaccine along with 15 other EU countries, which the Italian medicines regulator admitted was a “political decision”. ...

    Amazing watching this from the outside

    AEP in Telegraph:

    "I argued last December that Europe’s vaccine travails — already implicit then — amounted to a black swan event for the EU project and risked morphing into a dangerous political crisis. But I never expected to see a collective lurch into scientific obscurantism. "
  • Options

    So remember when I said there's no way the banks are going anywhere near NFTs and cryptocurrencies....

    The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has started criminal proceedings against NatWest over allegedly failing to comply with money laundering rules.

    The City watchdog claims "increasingly large cash deposits" were made into a UK account, alleging around £365m was paid in, including £264m in cash.

    It alleges that NatWest's systems and controls failed to adequately monitor and scrutinise this activity.

    NatWest said it had been co-operating with the FCA.

    In a statement, NatWest said it "takes extremely seriously its responsibility to seek to prevent money laundering by third parties and accordingly has made significant, multi-year investments in its financial crime systems and controls".

    No individuals are being charged as part of the proceedings.

    The FCA said the case marked the first criminal prosecution under the money laundering regulations and the first against a bank.

    The allegations date back to between 2011 and 2016.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56412393

    Isnt it entirely expected that a money service business would deposit increasingly large cash deposits? Are only failing business with declining turnover going to be allowed bank accounts?
    No, so long as there is a robust audit trail in place, such as via card payment systems, and take CHAPS/BACS/FP/Cheques you'll get a bank account.
  • Options
    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    edited March 2021
    Ladbrokes odds for Hartlepool:
    Tories 4/7
    Labour 6/4
    Reform 33/1
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    Nigelb said:

    On Starmer's assertion that 'over 50% of victims of violent crime are women', I think it is unlikely that he has made it up; he's not stupid.

    The more likely explanation is that he's using data from the England and Wales Crime Survey (used to be the British Crime Survey). This survey focuses on victims of crime, on the basis that reported crime statistics are, by their very nature, unreliable; most crimes are not, in fact, reported. Most criminologists take much more notice of the Crime Survey than they do of reported crime statistics. So a crime survey will pick up, for example, a much higher incidence of (unreported) domestic violence and sexual assaults against women.

    If I'm right, it would have been helpful if Starmer had explained that in his tweet.

    I think that must be right.
    I think it's estimated, for example, that only 10% of rapes are reported.
    If 10% are reported and 3% of them lead to a charge that is ... well it's a tiny tiny proportion that are punished. It makes the statement "rape is effectively legalized" not the most outrageous ever uttered. Not that I have any easy answers to the problem. There's little point charging if you think you have no real chance in court.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,735

    So remember when I said there's no way the banks are going anywhere near NFTs and cryptocurrencies....

    The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has started criminal proceedings against NatWest over allegedly failing to comply with money laundering rules.

    The City watchdog claims "increasingly large cash deposits" were made into a UK account, alleging around £365m was paid in, including £264m in cash.

    It alleges that NatWest's systems and controls failed to adequately monitor and scrutinise this activity.

    NatWest said it had been co-operating with the FCA.

    In a statement, NatWest said it "takes extremely seriously its responsibility to seek to prevent money laundering by third parties and accordingly has made significant, multi-year investments in its financial crime systems and controls".

    No individuals are being charged as part of the proceedings.

    The FCA said the case marked the first criminal prosecution under the money laundering regulations and the first against a bank.

    The allegations date back to between 2011 and 2016.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56412393

    Isnt it entirely expected that a money service business would deposit increasingly large cash deposits? Are only failing business with declining turnover going to be allowed bank accounts?
    No, so long as there is a robust audit trail in place, such as via card payment systems, and take CHAPS/BACS/FP/Cheques you'll get a bank account.
    But (according to BBC) they are a money changing business! When they take peoples cash in, they need somewhere to put it, such as a bank.
  • Options
    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,010
    tlg86 said:

    "More nukes less troops".

    At least @HYUFD can be happy. Nukes are more effective willy-waving props.
    Far easier just to press a button.
    To deploy HYUFD's willy?
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,081
    Is SKS going to have to do the whole macho 'we're just as big ****s as you' over the extra nukes?
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,610
    If Farage hadn't just stood down from politics this might have been a prime opportunity for him to finally get into parliament.
  • Options
    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    No special insight into Hartlepool but I would say:
    -brexit largely irrelevant for most, I can't see the tories getting much benefit from it, likewise Labour won't be making a big deal about it even if their candidate was a remainer. Its done, even the BXP/Reform party would be campaigning on lockdown rather than brexit
    - voters will know this isn't going to be about who's prime minister, even if you prefer Boris to Keir there's no risk of that happening here
    - no reason for reform not to stand. Nothing at stake if they cause the tories to lose a seat (although it's just as possible that they are also splitting labour's vote here)
    - tories doing better on covid with the vaccine rollout but I'm not sure how well that would translate to by-election support. They've improved their polling but it's not the same 'rally round the leader' effect from last March.
    - for an opposition to lose a seat in a by election is rare. Voters generally prefer kicking the government. Corbyn managed it by being spectacularly toxic to his party. Starmer is dull but not toxic.

    I would expect a Labour hold, probably at similar margins to the 2019 election.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    Is SKS going to have to do the whole macho 'we're just as big ****s as you' over the extra nukes?

    Nah - he'll just wave the Union Jack at them.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,280
    Floater said:

    A crisis threatens to engulf Angela Merkel’s government over her decision to suspend use of the AstraZeneca vaccine along with 15 other EU countries, which the Italian medicines regulator admitted was a “political decision”. ...

    Amazing watching this from the outside

    I fear Merkle has made the same mistake as Thatcher and hung on a bit too long. This is scathing: https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/fall-from-grace-merkel-s-conservatives-mired-in-scandal-and-incompetence-a-b3b33c92-9855-4a92-9e3f-f1f6667de531
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,432
    edited March 2021

    moonshine said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    This is interesting as closer to a like-for-like replacement for gas boilers than heat pumps.

    I think I'd definitely prefer a heat pump in a new build, but this looks like a more credible option for a lot of existing properties.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/16/first-microwave-powered-home-boiler-could-help-cut-emissions

    Hmm. It doesn't look great to me. 96% sounds "efficient" but a heat pump properly installed and configured in a well insulated property will give you 4-5 times the output in heat than the input in electricity.

    There's probably a very good reason this hasn't been brought to market before.
    They've broken the laws of thermodynamics? They can't do that!
    Well a heat pump takes the latent heat in the air or the ground and puts it into your house. Like a fridge takes the heat out of your sausages and dumps it into your kitchen.

    All this "microwave" boiler is doing is heating up water using direct electricity.
    Hm, can't the heat pump be powered by electricity? Where's the gas coming into it?
    What do you mean? A heat pump is powered by electricity. But setup correctly, you'll get more than 4 times the heat out than electricity in because it's not using electricity to heat water directly, it's using the electricity to take the latent heat out of the air or the ground.

    Direct electrical heating can never be more than 100% efficient but a heat pump can be.
    There's a very large block of properties in the UK that are not particular energy efficient and cannot be made to be, meaning heat transfer tech is probably a non-starter. And another group again that are not even on mains gas, so can't be realistically retrograded to a hydrogen boiler. It's a pickle to be sure. I suspect it will be solved using biofuels.
    100% agree. However the product here seems to be marketed towards new builds, who should have no problem being energy efficient enough. To me it sounds like a "loop hole" for house builders to pretend they're being green but they're not.
    This intrigued me too. 96% sounds great on the face of it, but electric heating is extremely efficient anyway - efficiency losses in electrical appliances are mostly in the form of heat, if it's heat you want, you can do it very efficiently. I'd be interested to see figures for a more traditional heating element boiler.

    So, what's the microwave angle. All I can see is that you can maybe do it more quickly/cheaply. Properly directed microwaves could dump a lot of energy in water very quickly, likely quicker (or with a less complex heat exchanger) than conductive/convective systems used with a traditional heating element. For a combi-style electric boiler, that's key.

    I do also wonder whether this makes sense overall though. For retrofitting, sure, but in new builds wouldn't we be looking (if not a heat pump, where as you say you can get efficiency way over 100% and for a new-build where you've got diggers on site and nothing of value to dig up it seems the obvious thing) at simply having electric heaters/electric underfloor and electric heating at the tap/shower rather than a central boiler and all the pipework that implies?

    Edit: Of course, retrofitting will be most of the market for the foreseeable future, so if this is a better retrofit then it makes a lot of sense.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,185

    DougSeal said:
    Unfortunately, positive tests (not cases) will probably rise today or tomorrow (thanks to a huge acceleration in testing), and that will be used by the Zero Covid psychopaths as evidence to delay the roadmap. You're going to be able to set your watch by them.
    I don't really agree with you - we've been doing 1.5 million tests for a while now (at least a week). Yes we have had an apparent levelling off of the decrease in cases, but what new testing is going to be reported today?
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Andy_JS said:

    If Farage hadn't just stood down from politics this might have been a prime opportunity for him to finally get into parliament.

    More like for his eighth(?) defeat.

    I think Labour will hold Hartlepool. Extremely low turnout, with most of the 2019 BXP vote simply staying at home, but there's no harm for the Tories in throwing the kitchen sink at it. All the pressure's on Starmer here.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Please join me in a slow handclap for those political "leaders" in mainland Europe who are doing their utmost to turn a bad situation into something far worse
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,610

    The Labour candidate doesn't have to be explicitly pro-Brexit. They just have to not be militantly pro-Remain. A non-political candidate is therefore much more desirable.

    True. Which means Labour will probably select Paul Williams.
  • Options
    I tipped Sir Keir at 5/1 earlier on this month, he's now 3/1

    https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1371808046792511493
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Betting Post

    F1: Ladbrokes has changed the each way aspect of Bahrain to be fifth the odds top 3 rather than third the odds top 2.

    Backed Perez at 8 on that basis (8.5 with boost).
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987
    Re Hartlepool, is anyone betting on the LibDems...

    ... To save their deposit?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Selebian said:

    moonshine said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    This is interesting as closer to a like-for-like replacement for gas boilers than heat pumps.

    I think I'd definitely prefer a heat pump in a new build, but this looks like a more credible option for a lot of existing properties.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/16/first-microwave-powered-home-boiler-could-help-cut-emissions

    Hmm. It doesn't look great to me. 96% sounds "efficient" but a heat pump properly installed and configured in a well insulated property will give you 4-5 times the output in heat than the input in electricity.

    There's probably a very good reason this hasn't been brought to market before.
    They've broken the laws of thermodynamics? They can't do that!
    Well a heat pump takes the latent heat in the air or the ground and puts it into your house. Like a fridge takes the heat out of your sausages and dumps it into your kitchen.

    All this "microwave" boiler is doing is heating up water using direct electricity.
    Hm, can't the heat pump be powered by electricity? Where's the gas coming into it?
    What do you mean? A heat pump is powered by electricity. But setup correctly, you'll get more than 4 times the heat out than electricity in because it's not using electricity to heat water directly, it's using the electricity to take the latent heat out of the air or the ground.

    Direct electrical heating can never be more than 100% efficient but a heat pump can be.
    There's a very large block of properties in the UK that are not particular energy efficient and cannot be made to be, meaning heat transfer tech is probably a non-starter. And another group again that are not even on mains gas, so can't be realistically retrograded to a hydrogen boiler. It's a pickle to be sure. I suspect it will be solved using biofuels.
    100% agree. However the product here seems to be marketed towards new builds, who should have no problem being energy efficient enough. To me it sounds like a "loop hole" for house builders to pretend they're being green but they're not.
    This intrigued me too. 96% sounds great on the face of it, but electric heating is extremely efficient anyway - efficiency losses in electrical appliances are mostly in the form of heat, if it's heat you want, you can do it very efficiently. I'd be interested to see figures for a more traditional heating element boiler.

    So, what's the microwave angle. All I can see is that you can maybe do it more quickly/cheaply. Properly directed microwaves could dump a lot of energy in water very quickly, likely quicker (or with a less complex heat exchanger) than conductive/convective systems used with a traditional heating element. For a combi-style electric boiler, that's key.

    I do also wonder whether this makes sense overall though. For retrofitting, sure, but in new builds wouldn't we be looking (if not a heat pump, where as you say you can get efficiency way over 100% and for a new-build where you've got diggers on site and nothing of value to dig up it seems the obvious thing) at simply having electric heaters/electric underfloor and electric heating at the tap/shower rather than a central boiler and all the pipework that implies?

    Edit: Of course, retrofitting will be most of the market for the foreseeable future, so if this is a better retrofit then it makes a lot of sense.
    Cost, heat pumps are >£10k, this is aiming to be the same price as a conventional gas boiler system at between £3-4k.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Will Galloway or Piers Corbyn stand and cause problems?
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    Paul is a genuinely lovely man, a dedicated GP, a successful NHS manager and for a couple of years a brilliant MP. Co-writing the core campaign for his 2017 shock win was one of the best things I've ever done in politics.

    However, he would lose and likely lose badly. His "tell it like it is" views on Europe vs a town that gave 10k votes to Richard Tice? Naah. Also, being the candidate in pools tells voters he isn't interested in the PCC election and almost certainly hands it to the Tory candidate. I can imagine that someone in Labour North has whispered "Dr Paul Williams" at Patrick Maguire, but that isn't remotely the same as him as the likeliest to "win selection".

    Given the time constraint I wonder if there will be a selection process at all? And who will the Tories run? Stefan Houghton is a councillor in Stockton, perhaps Ben Houchen wants to be like Dan Jarvis and serve as MP and Metro mayor simultaneously.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,659
    BBC WATO reporting calls in NI over AZ given the republic’s stance - but no cancellations and strong demand (indeed requested from the republic).
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    eekeek Posts: 24,979
    edited March 2021

    Andy_JS said:

    If Farage hadn't just stood down from politics this might have been a prime opportunity for him to finally get into parliament.

    More like for his eighth(?) defeat.

    I think Labour will hold Hartlepool. Extremely low turnout, with most of the 2019 BXP vote simply staying at home, but there's no harm for the Tories in throwing the kitchen sink at it. All the pressure's on Starmer here.
    If it's on May 6th - then it's a complete set of elections in Hartlepool with Borough (delayed from 2016), Mayoral, Police Commissioner (again delayed) and a Parliamentary Byelection.

    Expect a decent size rather than a low turnout.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987
    DougSeal said:
    That's a good chart, both for showing the scale of how bad things were, and also how much they've improved.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Floater said:
    Comedy Dave is going to have to work overtime spinning the EU governments out of this one.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987
    rcs1000 said:

    DougSeal said:
    That's a good chart, both for showing the scale of how bad things were, and also how much they've improved.
    And how close we are to being back to normal.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,659
    BBCR4 US expert “Dr Doom” Prof Michael Osterhome points out that if they vaccinated 1,000,000 over 50s in a single day, 700 of them would die that day mainly from heart attacks. Also makes point that B.117 is about to take off in the USA.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Oh ffs, Archer just dropped a sitter.
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,432
    edited March 2021
    MaxPB said:

    Selebian said:

    moonshine said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    This is interesting as closer to a like-for-like replacement for gas boilers than heat pumps.

    I think I'd definitely prefer a heat pump in a new build, but this looks like a more credible option for a lot of existing properties.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/16/first-microwave-powered-home-boiler-could-help-cut-emissions

    Hmm. It doesn't look great to me. 96% sounds "efficient" but a heat pump properly installed and configured in a well insulated property will give you 4-5 times the output in heat than the input in electricity.

    There's probably a very good reason this hasn't been brought to market before.
    They've broken the laws of thermodynamics? They can't do that!
    Well a heat pump takes the latent heat in the air or the ground and puts it into your house. Like a fridge takes the heat out of your sausages and dumps it into your kitchen.

    All this "microwave" boiler is doing is heating up water using direct electricity.
    Hm, can't the heat pump be powered by electricity? Where's the gas coming into it?
    What do you mean? A heat pump is powered by electricity. But setup correctly, you'll get more than 4 times the heat out than electricity in because it's not using electricity to heat water directly, it's using the electricity to take the latent heat out of the air or the ground.

    Direct electrical heating can never be more than 100% efficient but a heat pump can be.
    There's a very large block of properties in the UK that are not particular energy efficient and cannot be made to be, meaning heat transfer tech is probably a non-starter. And another group again that are not even on mains gas, so can't be realistically retrograded to a hydrogen boiler. It's a pickle to be sure. I suspect it will be solved using biofuels.
    100% agree. However the product here seems to be marketed towards new builds, who should have no problem being energy efficient enough. To me it sounds like a "loop hole" for house builders to pretend they're being green but they're not.
    This intrigued me too. 96% sounds great on the face of it, but electric heating is extremely efficient anyway - efficiency losses in electrical appliances are mostly in the form of heat, if it's heat you want, you can do it very efficiently. I'd be interested to see figures for a more traditional heating element boiler.

    So, what's the microwave angle. All I can see is that you can maybe do it more quickly/cheaply. Properly directed microwaves could dump a lot of energy in water very quickly, likely quicker (or with a less complex heat exchanger) than conductive/convective systems used with a traditional heating element. For a combi-style electric boiler, that's key.

    I do also wonder whether this makes sense overall though. For retrofitting, sure, but in new builds wouldn't we be looking (if not a heat pump, where as you say you can get efficiency way over 100% and for a new-build where you've got diggers on site and nothing of value to dig up it seems the obvious thing) at simply having electric heaters/electric underfloor and electric heating at the tap/shower rather than a central boiler and all the pipework that implies?

    Edit: Of course, retrofitting will be most of the market for the foreseeable future, so if this is a better retrofit then it makes a lot of sense.
    Cost, heat pumps are >£10k, this is aiming to be the same price as a conventional gas boiler system at between £3-4k.
    Yep, I meant why microwave versus a traditional heating element (as a retrofit gas-replacement boiler). Efficiency can't be that much better, but maybe the ability to transfer energy to the water is much more rapid for a given complexity of design - heat exchangers are quite expensive.

    If you look at the energy/energy cost savings over installation lifetime for heat pump versus any electric boiler, surely there's a compelling case for installation in new builds? Not retrofitting, sure, where you have to destroy the client's garden (or add ugly boxes for air source) and likely re-do all the radiators to enlarge (as heat pump will likely output water at lower heat)

    PS: Who quotes £3-4k for a boiler, as in the article? We had ours done a couple of years ago (3 bed semi, decent boiler - Vaillant combi - for well under £2k including labour)
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,377
    DavidL said:

    Floater said:

    A crisis threatens to engulf Angela Merkel’s government over her decision to suspend use of the AstraZeneca vaccine along with 15 other EU countries, which the Italian medicines regulator admitted was a “political decision”. ...

    Amazing watching this from the outside

    I fear Merkle has made the same mistake as Thatcher and hung on a bit too long. This is scathing: https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/fall-from-grace-merkel-s-conservatives-mired-in-scandal-and-incompetence-a-b3b33c92-9855-4a92-9e3f-f1f6667de531
    I think it may be more cultural issue - see the nuclear power decision. Precautionary principle taken completely out of context and taken to mean "is there is the slightest *fear* of a problem"
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187

    I tipped Sir Keir at 5/1 earlier on this month, he's now 3/1

    https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1371808046792511493

    I think he's safe myself. Wonder why no Betfair exchange on this though?
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Artist said:

    Ladbrokes odds for Hartlepool:
    Tories 4/7
    Labour 6/4
    Reform 33/1

    I think Labour are too long. Maybe this idea they will pick the wrong candidate is affecting things. Ladbrokes only let me have a tenner on, but I took it. DYOR
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    There really are some stupid stories doing the rounds. Paul was endlessly and openly both pro-EU and pro-2nd referendum. The idea that deleting a few tweets would erase this basic reality is absurd.
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    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,886
    edited March 2021
    MaxPB said:

    Selebian said:

    moonshine said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    This is interesting as closer to a like-for-like replacement for gas boilers than heat pumps.

    I think I'd definitely prefer a heat pump in a new build, but this looks like a more credible option for a lot of existing properties.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/16/first-microwave-powered-home-boiler-could-help-cut-emissions

    Hmm. It doesn't look great to me. 96% sounds "efficient" but a heat pump properly installed and configured in a well insulated property will give you 4-5 times the output in heat than the input in electricity.

    There's probably a very good reason this hasn't been brought to market before.
    They've broken the laws of thermodynamics? They can't do that!
    Well a heat pump takes the latent heat in the air or the ground and puts it into your house. Like a fridge takes the heat out of your sausages and dumps it into your kitchen.

    All this "microwave" boiler is doing is heating up water using direct electricity.
    Hm, can't the heat pump be powered by electricity? Where's the gas coming into it?
    What do you mean? A heat pump is powered by electricity. But setup correctly, you'll get more than 4 times the heat out than electricity in because it's not using electricity to heat water directly, it's using the electricity to take the latent heat out of the air or the ground.

    Direct electrical heating can never be more than 100% efficient but a heat pump can be.
    There's a very large block of properties in the UK that are not particular energy efficient and cannot be made to be, meaning heat transfer tech is probably a non-starter. And another group again that are not even on mains gas, so can't be realistically retrograded to a hydrogen boiler. It's a pickle to be sure. I suspect it will be solved using biofuels.
    100% agree. However the product here seems to be marketed towards new builds, who should have no problem being energy efficient enough. To me it sounds like a "loop hole" for house builders to pretend they're being green but they're not.
    This intrigued me too. 96% sounds great on the face of it, but electric heating is extremely efficient anyway - efficiency losses in electrical appliances are mostly in the form of heat, if it's heat you want, you can do it very efficiently. I'd be interested to see figures for a more traditional heating element boiler.

    So, what's the microwave angle. All I can see is that you can maybe do it more quickly/cheaply. Properly directed microwaves could dump a lot of energy in water very quickly, likely quicker (or with a less complex heat exchanger) than conductive/convective systems used with a traditional heating element. For a combi-style electric boiler, that's key.

    I do also wonder whether this makes sense overall though. For retrofitting, sure, but in new builds wouldn't we be looking (if not a heat pump, where as you say you can get efficiency way over 100% and for a new-build where you've got diggers on site and nothing of value to dig up it seems the obvious thing) at simply having electric heaters/electric underfloor and electric heating at the tap/shower rather than a central boiler and all the pipework that implies?

    Edit: Of course, retrofitting will be most of the market for the foreseeable future, so if this is a better retrofit then it makes a lot of sense.
    Cost, heat pumps are >£10k, this is aiming to be the same price as a conventional gas boiler system at between £3-4k.
    Why so expensive? The ground works or the technology? Heat pumps aren't exactly cutting edge.

    In this case, I'm not sure what microwaving the water instead of using a coil gives you - other than added complexity.

    If you are going to use direct electrical heating you are far betting using individual thermostatic radiators in any case.
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited March 2021
    DougSeal said:
    The same chap from the BBC posted about this earlier in the morning. Total deaths are 3% above the medium-term trend, which effectively means that the death rate is normal for this time of year (with 5% either side of the trend line being deemed normal, given the tendency for some routine variability to be present in the mortality statistics.)

    What's also interesting about that graph though is that mortality from non-Covid causes has been running below the medium-term average since about October, and continues to do so even as the sum of Covid and non-Covid deaths combined returns to normal levels. Presumably the result of some combination of the absence of flu, Covid victims who would otherwise have been carried off by something else anyway, and Covid victims from last Spring who didn't survive to be killed off by something else this Winter?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,329
    My council tax bill has just landed. It's eye-watering. HCC and EHDC are actually alright (at just 2% rises) but it's all the other jockeys.

    And the PCC has whacked up the police precept by 7.1% for Hampshire because he felt there was a "compelling operational case". He's not standing for re-election.

    Pillock. The phallus I will draw on my ballot paper grows ever larger and more detailed.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,926
    edited March 2021

    BBCR4 US expert “Dr Doom” Prof Michael Osterhome points out that if they vaccinated 1,000,000 over 50s in a single day, 700 of them would die that day mainly from heart attacks. Also makes point that B.117 is about to take off in the USA.

    Are you sure it wouldn't be 70 ?
    700 implies a remaining lifespan of a bit under 4 years for over 50s.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Artist said:

    Ladbrokes odds for Hartlepool:
    Tories 4/7
    Labour 6/4
    Reform 33/1

    Labour value there. They should be the other way around.
This discussion has been closed.