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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft’s mega poll has UKIP on 16pc – the highest hi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft’s mega poll has UKIP on 16pc – the highest his surveys have ever recorded
The latest Lord Ashcroft mega poll has just been published as part of a study on how the Tories could win at GE2015. The poll was carried out online amongst a sample of 8,053 more than a month ago.
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Online polling tends to boost UKIP I seem to recall.
Stuart Jacobite Coalition 58%
Saxon Alliance 12%
Norman (Tebbit) Independence Party 11%
Whig Smithsonians 9%
Plantagenet Popular Front 6%
Godwinson Natural Law Party 2%
Pictish National Party 1%
Hanovarian-Saxe Coburg Gotha Alliance 1%
Sample Size 37million undertaken AD 1050-1910
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7744
YouGov are an online pollster, and they produce relatively low numbers for UKIP.
Labour's vote share is remarkably consistent across all polls - whether online or phone.
Labour up ten, the Coalition Parties down twenty-one from 2010. That tells you pretty much all you need to know.
Which explains this
@thetimes: Miliband’s warning over “low-skilled migrant workers” http://t.co/zX9Ir9unYK
Word cloud on Ed Miliband from @LordAshcroft's Project Blueprint polling: weak, useless, idiot, trying and Wallace
pic.twitter.com/NfC8WgptAI
While Cameron word cloud contains out of touch, competent, posh, smug, toff, arrogant and Prime Minister
pic.twitter.com/1OiSH99FYP
Robinson said that senior figures in the BBC had believed that having an open, uncensored debate about immigration would “unleash some terrible side of the British public”.
“They feared having a conversation about immigration, they feared the consequence,” he said in an interview with The Sunday Times this weekend.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/National/article1359525.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2014_01_04
EDIT: To clarify, if that multiple were repeated now they'd literally win all the votes available in 2014. Either they are going to overperform current polls in the Euros or some of the people who in May-June 2009 said they would vote UKIP in the Euros but not in a General are now willing to vote for both, at least when they answer polls now.
OK _again_ FPT re. Gove and our hosts quite amusing response to him and anyway I'm off to bed but I mean really.
Gove comes across as geeky, super, absolutely non-PM material more's the pity of our telegenic times and absolutely sharp as a pin and bright as a button.
That's why he unnerves people like Mike Smithson and less smart lefters.
He is thoughtful, has the courage of his convictions and doesn't mind you knowing that he is smart in contradistinction to others who pretend they are man of the people fools and are actually bright (but of course not as bright as they like to think they are).
I haven't followed his Great War pronouncements but I think it safe to say that you will find every flavour of populist, academic, left, right, Chlesea, Moltke to Joan Littlewood interpretation of it out there. So why single anyone out for their own view and criticise it beats me.
Well done Gove as giving strength and depth to the Conservative Party.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/01/project-blueprint-phase-4-the-proceeds-of-growth/
`And dissatisfied though many of them are with Cameron, most prefer him to the alternative.`
If ever there was damning with faint praise...
UKIP on 16% now is a meaningless stat. Not that we're short of them here.
UKIP @ GE2015 is of course the meaningful stat and that will be safely <5-6%.
"my research looking at the state of this voting coalition, shows it is far from impossible for the Tories to win outright. But to do so they will need the votes of everyone who supported them last time, plus practically everyone who is even prepared to think about doing so next time."
Precisely what would he define as 'close to impossible'?!
But to do so they will need the votes of everyone who supported them last time, plus practically everyone who is even prepared to think about doing so next time."
He already said that more than a third of those that voted Tory in 2010 say they will not now, so he needs all them to return home plus anyone who is even prepared to think about it?
Nooooooo!!!
Well that is exactly what Gove did. I am a huge fan of him as education secretary but his comments on WW1 and particularly on our negative views of Hague and the Generals as being the result of left wing indoctrination are just plain stupid, ill informed and wrong.
As I said yesterday one of Hague's greatest critics was Alan Clark. I cannot think of a politician or historian who could be considered further from 'left wing' than Clark and yet it was his book 'The Donkey's' which has done more than almost any other work to inform the late 20th century view of WW1 military leadership.
Gove should stick to education where he is doing an excellent job.
You're a liar
Nick Clegg told Michael Gove he was out of control at Whitehall function
Education Secretary's allies accused the Deputy Prime Minister of 'lying'
Follows a series of run-ins between the pair in the run-up to 2015 election
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2533833/Cabinet-war-Nick-Clegg-tells-Michael-Gove-Youre-control-Education-Secretary-replies-Youre-liar.html
Lab 35 (nc)
Con 31 (+2)
UKIP 16 (-1)
LD 11 (nc)
Changes since the survation poll in October
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2533869/Now-voters-turn-against-EU-record-numbers-floodgates-open-Romanian-Bulgarian-migrants.html
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2533869/Now-voters-turn-against-EU-record-numbers-floodgates-open-Romanian-Bulgarian-migrants.html#ixzz2pTPoS8fP
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
Lab no change
Con minus 1
UKIP plus 1
LDs plus 1
Edit: IIRC not a strict comparison, as the Nov poll was weighted to a specific EP2014 turnout question
While David Cameron's net approval rating is steady at -15%, Ed Miliband's has dropped by 5% to -27%.
Some 31% of likely voters think 2014 will be better for their family and themselves than 2013 was, while 26% say it will be worse and 40% say it will be about the same. 39% say they are generally optimistic about 2014, while 27% are generally pessimistic.
On particular issues, 69% say the cost of living will get worse in 2014, and 43% say the NHS will get worse.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/04/labour-lead-conservative-ukip-poll?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
Re Nick Robinson admitting BBC bias on immigration, I think he - and all other BBC presenters and editors - should tell us when they first realised they were censoring and misrepresenting public opinion. We need a mass nostra culpa to help start to clear the air. What about Dimbleby, Paxman, Naughtie - what have they got to say? And while we're at it, are there any other concerns they're currently keeping quiet about? Coming out after the event, when the damage is already done, doesn't make everything alright.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2533869/Now-voters-turn-against-EU-record-numbers-floodgates-open-Romanian-Bulgarian-migrants.html
I'm afraid I'm off to bed now, leaving this comment like a wuss. My apologies.
Tory 29%
Labour 22%
S Nats 28%
Oh, and not one Welsh respondent said they would vote Lib Dem.
Before anyone says ignore subsections with very small samples....yes I know.
" I'm basing my views on those expressed by most of the UKIP supporters on this board. When another_richard talks of stopping "the 1%" from buying at Chinese wage rates, and selling at Western prices and paying Monaco tax rates, he doesn't sound very libertarian. "
A few mistakes:
1) I'm not a UKIP supporter - though I'm likely to vote for them in 2015 on the basis that they're not LibLabCon
2) I didn't say that the 1% should be stopped from buying at Chinese wage rates etc I said that UKIP should use that as a slogan to attract voters disgruntled with the present system
3) Libertarianism should be for everyone not just those with the wealth and power to manipulate the system to their advantage while the rest suffer from ever increasing regulations and restrictions
David Cameron's EU referendum bill 'unlikely' to become law
David Cameron is facing embarrassment over Europe as peers warn that his attempt to pass a referendum law faces failure
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10547669/David-Camerons-EU-referendum-bill-unlikely-to-become-law.html
In which case it will be another victory for the 'Mother Of All Bureaucracies'......
No amount of incumbency will save Lib Dem seats if they poll 8% at the general election.
I bloody hope so.These polling crossover goalposts are killing my back as I have been moving them on behalf of the PB Hodges every three or four months.
I think the there is a bigger question libertarians generally must answer which is "whose liberty is more important?". Many of the issues which are often cited as being libertarian actually put different groups of voters at odds with each other (just as the concepts of equality and discrimination and fairness do). As such its a bit of a red herring because in every case compromises in terms of libertarian puritanism have to made. That is unavoidable if a libertarian party has any real aspirations to become a government at any level.
CON 31
LAB 35
LD 11
UKIP 16
Hung parliament discussions so far have not involved much talk of what the SN will do. They could matter.
LAB 27 (+14)
UKIP 21 (+8)
CON 15 (-11)
LD 3 (-8)
GRN 1 (-1)
BNP 0 (-2)
SNP 2 (-)
PC 1 (-)
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/01/04/britain-version-tea-party-rocks-political-system-across-pond/
UK T Party...Farage as Sarah Pailin.
Will the test be over by the time I read the rest of this thread?
could also be tempted to stand for the House of Commons if “the right by-election” comes up later this year.
Can we all pay Chinese wage rates (and follow Chinese regulations) or choose to pay Monaco tax rates ?
Clearly not but those who can - and the more wealth and power an individual has the greater their ability to work the system to their advantage - are inadvertedly joining in the 'oppression' of those who can't.
Of course this happens at various levels - the multinational business 'oppressing' the small national business has its equivalent in the EU worker 'oppressing' the non-EU worker.
Ultimately there are very few true libertarians. Instead people want governments off their backs but also want governments to protect their own interests. And the people with most influence with governments are the rich and powerful.
Don't worry I've been accused of being supporters of all the parties at some time or other. Personally I think UKIP is wrong to oppose gay marriage but I don't think its evershifting policies are important for its rising support.
All it should do is act as a hoover for the economically disgruntled, a group which is only going to grow.
As I said I think there are very few true libertarians and most people who want 'libertariansim' merely support fewer restrictions on themselves.
UKIP should I suggest call for less restrictions on 'us' and more restrictions on 'them'. The 'us' and 'them' being dependent upon the target audience. Though more restrictions on 'them' should be cast under the guise of 'fairness'.
Apologies for the meandering reply but its getting late and I'm too tired to think clearly.
I think 9% is at the high end though. Some Westminster VIs have them down near that level. It'll be interesting to see if they beat the Greens, who should be looking at this as a real opportunity. From memory they've been around 3% in ICM monthly polls.
Urgent message from Tory HQ to all their MP's "Whatever happens....don't die".
VOTERS know what David Cameron should make his new year resolution. They want him to ban new immigrants from claiming benefits during their first two years in Britain.
VOTERS could have to show their passport or driving licence to prove their identity at polling stations, under a recommendation by the government’s elections watchdog.
The Electoral Commission’s proposal follows evidence that an increasing number of people are being impersonated at polling stations and their votes being stolen. The change would lead to people who failed to produce ID — including anyone whose passport was being renewed — being denied a vote.
85% of Tories and 83% of Labour voters (and 73% of UKIP, but only 69% of LibDems) are sure how they'll vote at the GE.
The churn and the level of uncertainty are both very small and basically opinion seems fairly settled - which is what the other polls have been telling us some months, and also what canvassers are finding on the ground. Perhaps we should believe them?
Edit - Which is what they do in Norn Iron
And what a damn stupid argument about "denial" if you don't have one particular thing. The list of acceptable IDs will be long and flexible enough for even local Labour party workers to find a way around.
As I said a few months ago I am sorry to have to admit that I believe that UKIP's position on Gay marriage has boosted their appeal. I am sorry both because of what this says about the attitudes of a significant portion of the UK electorate towards Gays and also because I think it is an unsustainable position for UKIP to adopt philosophically.