Fuxake Matt, they're not going to shag you whatever the level of crawling. (poss exception made if you can convincingly impersonate a 15 year old Californian girl).
I'm done with this whole naff idea of "national claps" for ANYONE. It's pure CRINGE. I want to forget we ever did it. I want to go back to not knowing my neighbours and not caring if they die. I want to go back to being a surely, selfish Londoner watching my house appreciate in value, and fuck everyone else, as I guzzle champagne in the Groucho Club
NO MORE CLAPPING
I hadn’t realised that anyone did the clap out of anything other than extreme boredom or in drunken irony.
It's come to something where "only" ninety corpses in a day is considered a measure of great progress, but nonetheless that's where we are. Double rather than treble figures on this measure, for the first time in months I'd imagine.
That's also a 40% reduction week-on-week, after a similar reduction the previous week as well. If that rate of progress can be maintained then the equivalent value by mid-April should be down into single figures.
Still a very straight line.....
And if the hospital numbers also keep trending down in a constant fashion then I make it we'll be down to about 2,000 Covid patients (and only 250 left on ventilators) in the whole of the UK by the time we get to Step 2 of the unlocking plan.
If that's the case, deaths are running somewhere around 100 per week and falling, and the vaccination scheme is well into the fortysomethings by that point, then the Government may struggle to justify taking five whole weeks until step 3, and another five weeks after that until restrictions are substantially ended. But that would be a nice problem for both them and us to have.
Fuxake Matt, they're not going to shag you whatever the level of crawling. (poss exception made if you can convincingly impersonate a 15 year old Californian girl).
I'm done with this whole naff idea of "national claps" for ANYONE. It's pure CRINGE. I want to forget we ever did it. I want to go back to not knowing my neighbours and not caring if they die. I want to go back to being a surely, selfish Londoner watching my house appreciate in value, and fuck everyone else, as I guzzle champagne in the Groucho Club
NO MORE CLAPPING
I hadn’t realised that anyone did the clap out of anything other than extreme boredom or in drunken irony.
I did it a total of twice. The first was oddly moving, the second was boring and faintly cringe-worthy, I never did it again after that, and never will
It's come to something where "only" ninety corpses in a day is considered a measure of great progress, but nonetheless that's where we are. Double rather than treble figures on this measure, for the first time in months I'd imagine.
That's also a 40% reduction week-on-week, after a similar reduction the previous week as well. If that rate of progress can be maintained then the equivalent value by mid-April should be down into single figures.
If we are really going to live with Covid mortality being “like flu” then double figures is what we’re going to have to get used to.
I think what we really need is in September or October for the government to move all COVID reporting to the standard weekly ONS releases for death certificates and junk the daily releases. We need to normalise COVID as endemic and ultimately undefeatable just like the flu. Daily reporting of statistics marks it out as separate from everything else and it shouldn't be.
I think that’s an excellent idea and one that might just happen. At the moment it suits the Government to present data like this, when it suits the Government to get everyone spending money again then the data will be presented differently.
It's come to something where "only" ninety corpses in a day is considered a measure of great progress, but nonetheless that's where we are. Double rather than treble figures on this measure, for the first time in months I'd imagine.
That's also a 40% reduction week-on-week, after a similar reduction the previous week as well. If that rate of progress can be maintained then the equivalent value by mid-April should be down into single figures.
Remember , however, that 1500 people die every day in the UK in an average year (more in winter). So "90 corpses" should be seen in that context. It's not a huge number. 6%
I know, I'm merely saying that the fact that ninety Covid deaths may be regarded as something actually to be welcomed, relative to the tsunami of bodies we had only a few weeks ago, is rather sad.
However, it does look like the release of the little Plague spreaders tomorrow is the final major obstacle left to go. If that doesn't cause everything to go to crap then, hallelujah, I think we're almost done with this thing. We're not completely safe from the dreaded super-variants, but where mutations have been appearing so far they all seem to be shifting the disease in the same direction, so hopefully the fact that the evil Kent Plague has already descended upon us and now predominates will mean that there are no more nasty surprises.
Good thread here on R and the school reopening in September-
Incidentally, on the last thread somebody asked if Gavin Williamson's place at the bottom of the cabinet satisfaction rankings was about right.
The answer is of course no, as he shouldn't be in the cabinet.
But I am rapidly coming to the conclusion that it's not the minister - because even some very able ministers, the likes of Gove, Balls, Clarke and Gauke, have crashed and burned at education over the last thirty years. Clearly something is appallingly, horribly wrong with the department itself.
So the realistic solution is the Hacker solution - abolish the DfE.
Fuxake Matt, they're not going to shag you whatever the level of crawling. (poss exception made if you can convincingly impersonate a 15 year old Californian girl).
The desire for Ed Balls -- who I don't remember as being very good, remember the sacking of Sharon Shoesmith in the HoC -- is the same mistake as the appointment of SKS in the first place.
Labour need a fresh & young team (preferably with more women) not an old team of stale, male has-beens.
There are plenty of fresh voices in Labour. If they want to replace Dodds, Rachel Reeves would be a better choice than Ed Balls.
I couldn't stand Balls when he was around, whereas Ed M was just meh. Both have seemed better since, but are probably not the answer.
Fuxake Matt, they're not going to shag you whatever the level of crawling. (poss exception made if you can convincingly impersonate a 15 year old Californian girl).
I'm done with this whole naff idea of "national claps" for ANYONE. It's pure CRINGE. I want to forget we ever did it. I want to go back to not knowing my neighbours and not caring if they die. I want to go back to being a surely, selfish Londoner watching my house appreciate in value, and fuck everyone else, as I guzzle champagne in the Groucho Club
NO MORE CLAPPING
People seemed relatively into it at the time, which is fine, but it's hard to keep it as 'special' if people are going to suggest it for any old thing, and it just seems forced.
It's come to something where "only" ninety corpses in a day is considered a measure of great progress, but nonetheless that's where we are. Double rather than treble figures on this measure, for the first time in months I'd imagine.
That's also a 40% reduction week-on-week, after a similar reduction the previous week as well. If that rate of progress can be maintained then the equivalent value by mid-April should be down into single figures.
Remember , however, that 1500 people die every day in the UK in an average year (more in winter). So "90 corpses" should be seen in that context. It's not a huge number. 6%
I know, I'm merely saying that the fact that ninety Covid deaths may be regarded as something actually to be welcomed, relative to the tsunami of bodies we had only a few weeks ago, is rather sad.
However, it does look like the release of the little Plague spreaders tomorrow is the final major obstacle left to go. If that doesn't cause everything to go to crap then, hallelujah, I think we're almost done with this thing. We're not completely safe from the dreaded super-variants, but where mutations have been appearing so far they all seem to be shifting the disease in the same direction, so hopefully the fact that the evil Kent Plague has already descended upon us and now predominates will mean that there are no more nasty surprises.
Good thread here on R and the school reopening in September-
Unless LFTs are completely useless, it will cause a rise in cases. But that's different from a rise in the 'R' rate (horrible bloody cliche, like social distancing).
Fuxake Matt, they're not going to shag you whatever the level of crawling. (poss exception made if you can convincingly impersonate a 15 year old Californian girl).
I'm done with this whole naff idea of "national claps" for ANYONE. It's pure CRINGE. I want to forget we ever did it. I want to go back to not knowing my neighbours and not caring if they die. I want to go back to being a surely, selfish Londoner watching my house appreciate in value, and fuck everyone else, as I guzzle champagne in the Groucho Club
NO MORE CLAPPING
I hadn’t realised that anyone did the clap out of anything other than extreme boredom or in drunken irony.
I did it a total of twice. The first was oddly moving, the second was boring and faintly cringe-worthy, I never did it again after that, and never will
I did it almost every time originally, and with the Captain Tom one. Didn't do it to make a point or anything, did it and would do it again purely because the kids love doing it.
Quite frankly them staying at home makes everyone a bit stir crazy at times and stepping outside and clapping and seeing the neighbours was something they absolutely loved. If they grow up and remember the clap as a happy moment rather than being stuck at home then I'll be pleased with that. 👍
It's come to something where "only" ninety corpses in a day is considered a measure of great progress, but nonetheless that's where we are. Double rather than treble figures on this measure, for the first time in months I'd imagine.
That's also a 40% reduction week-on-week, after a similar reduction the previous week as well. If that rate of progress can be maintained then the equivalent value by mid-April should be down into single figures.
Remember , however, that 1500 people die every day in the UK in an average year (more in winter). So "90 corpses" should be seen in that context. It's not a huge number. 6%
No excess death now in the UK is the context that BR seems to be lacking
Given the absence of deaths from flu is it now possible we are below normal mortality?
IF we are it is nothing to gloat aboui, because the backlog of undiagnosed cancers and untreated heart problems - and all the rest - will elevate it again. The scars of this terrible year will linger for a decade, in multiple ways
If people learn lessons about diet, exercise and general health and fitness that will be good.
Though I doubt that most of the people who most need to will do so.
It's come to something where "only" ninety corpses in a day is considered a measure of great progress, but nonetheless that's where we are. Double rather than treble figures on this measure, for the first time in months I'd imagine.
That's also a 40% reduction week-on-week, after a similar reduction the previous week as well. If that rate of progress can be maintained then the equivalent value by mid-April should be down into single figures.
Remember , however, that 1500 people die every day in the UK in an average year (more in winter). So "90 corpses" should be seen in that context. It's not a huge number. 6%
I know, I'm merely saying that the fact that ninety Covid deaths may be regarded as something actually to be welcomed, relative to the tsunami of bodies we had only a few weeks ago, is rather sad.
However, it does look like the release of the little Plague spreaders tomorrow is the final major obstacle left to go. If that doesn't cause everything to go to crap then, hallelujah, I think we're almost done with this thing. We're not completely safe from the dreaded super-variants, but where mutations have been appearing so far they all seem to be shifting the disease in the same direction, so hopefully the fact that the evil Kent Plague has already descended upon us and now predominates will mean that there are no more nasty surprises.
Just about everyone with a statistical possibility of dying has now been vaccinated. What are you worried about happening?
That's not true. Some in Group 6 are still waiting, while group 7 is only getting booked in now. 8 and 9 still to come too. Plus it takes 3 weeks for the vaccine to become active.
We're getting close to that point but we're not there yet.
It’s not true that it takes 3 weeks to get a good level of efficacy against hospitalisation. Someone posted the data yesterday.
Wave 1 saw only 500 deaths under 60 with no known pre existing conditions, or about 1% of the total. As for vaccine progress, Max’s data yesterday indicated a very high level of vaccines in arms for at least the over 64s. Nationally there’s an average 20% vaccine penetration in the 16-64 group too. The unwinding from lockdown is proving needlessly and painfully cautious and is in large part only supported by people who have no financial downside from lockdown.
It's come to something where "only" ninety corpses in a day is considered a measure of great progress, but nonetheless that's where we are. Double rather than treble figures on this measure, for the first time in months I'd imagine.
That's also a 40% reduction week-on-week, after a similar reduction the previous week as well. If that rate of progress can be maintained then the equivalent value by mid-April should be down into single figures.
Remember , however, that 1500 people die every day in the UK in an average year (more in winter). So "90 corpses" should be seen in that context. It's not a huge number. 6%
I know, I'm merely saying that the fact that ninety Covid deaths may be regarded as something actually to be welcomed, relative to the tsunami of bodies we had only a few weeks ago, is rather sad.
However, it does look like the release of the little Plague spreaders tomorrow is the final major obstacle left to go. If that doesn't cause everything to go to crap then, hallelujah, I think we're almost done with this thing. We're not completely safe from the dreaded super-variants, but where mutations have been appearing so far they all seem to be shifting the disease in the same direction, so hopefully the fact that the evil Kent Plague has already descended upon us and now predominates will mean that there are no more nasty surprises.
Good thread here on R and the school reopening in September-
It also implies there might be something explosive in the Oprah stuff
Yes, very odd thing to do. Either there's a big claim, or it's a massive tactical mistake as even if she says nothing about it, that she is making such an address is a clear diversionary tactic.
Fuxake Matt, they're not going to shag you whatever the level of crawling. (poss exception made if you can convincingly impersonate a 15 year old Californian girl).
I'm done with this whole naff idea of "national claps" for ANYONE. It's pure CRINGE. I want to forget we ever did it. I want to go back to not knowing my neighbours and not caring if they die. I want to go back to being a surely, selfish Londoner watching my house appreciate in value, and fuck everyone else, as I guzzle champagne in the Groucho Club
NO MORE CLAPPING
I hadn’t realised that anyone did the clap out of anything other than extreme boredom or in drunken irony.
I did it a total of twice. The first was oddly moving, the second was boring and faintly cringe-worthy, I never did it again after that, and never will
I did it almost every time originally, and with the Captain Tom one. Didn't do it to make a point or anything, did it and would do it again purely because the kids love doing it.
Quite frankly them staying at home makes everyone a bit stir crazy at times and stepping outside and clapping and seeing the neighbours was something they absolutely loved. If they grow up and remember the clap as a happy moment rather than being stuck at home then I'll be pleased with that. 👍
I REALLY went off it when I heard about some friends who missed a clap, because of a mild family emergency, and then they got angry or insinuating texts from neighbours. "Where were you today?" "Why weren't you clapping?" "Don't you care??".
It's come to something where "only" ninety corpses in a day is considered a measure of great progress, but nonetheless that's where we are. Double rather than treble figures on this measure, for the first time in months I'd imagine.
That's also a 40% reduction week-on-week, after a similar reduction the previous week as well. If that rate of progress can be maintained then the equivalent value by mid-April should be down into single figures.
Remember , however, that 1500 people die every day in the UK in an average year (more in winter). So "90 corpses" should be seen in that context. It's not a huge number. 6%
I know, I'm merely saying that the fact that ninety Covid deaths may be regarded as something actually to be welcomed, relative to the tsunami of bodies we had only a few weeks ago, is rather sad.
However, it does look like the release of the little Plague spreaders tomorrow is the final major obstacle left to go. If that doesn't cause everything to go to crap then, hallelujah, I think we're almost done with this thing. We're not completely safe from the dreaded super-variants, but where mutations have been appearing so far they all seem to be shifting the disease in the same direction, so hopefully the fact that the evil Kent Plague has already descended upon us and now predominates will mean that there are no more nasty surprises.
Just about everyone with a statistical possibility of dying has now been vaccinated. What are you worried about happening?
That's not true. Some in Group 6 are still waiting, while group 7 is only getting booked in now. 8 and 9 still to come too. Plus it takes 3 weeks for the vaccine to become active.
We're getting close to that point but we're not there yet.
It’s not true that it takes 3 weeks to get a good level of efficacy against hospitalisation. Someone posted the data yesterday.
Wave 1 saw only 500 deaths under 60 with no known pre existing conditions, or about 1% of the total. As for vaccine progress, Max’s data yesterday indicated a very high level of vaccines in arms for at least the over 64s. Nationally there’s an average 20% vaccine penetration in the 16-64 group too. The unwinding from lockdown is proving needlessly and painfully cautious and is in large part only supported by people who have no financial downside from lockdown.
You say "no known pre existing conditions" but when "pre existing conditions" includes things like diabetes, asthma, heart conditions and other issues that can be survived with for another fifty years if you're young then what point are you trying to make?
Group 6 is the under 65s with pre-existing conditions and they've not all been vaccinated yet, though many have.
Should we say if a 20 year old diabetic dies that their death shouldn't be counted as meaningful because they have a pre-existing condition?
I think the unwinding is unnecessarily cautious and should be escalated. Three weeks after Group 9 is done I'd lift restrictions.
But lets not pretend everyone at risk has been vaccinated yet, that's just not true.
It's come to something where "only" ninety corpses in a day is considered a measure of great progress, but nonetheless that's where we are. Double rather than treble figures on this measure, for the first time in months I'd imagine.
That's also a 40% reduction week-on-week, after a similar reduction the previous week as well. If that rate of progress can be maintained then the equivalent value by mid-April should be down into single figures.
Remember , however, that 1500 people die every day in the UK in an average year (more in winter). So "90 corpses" should be seen in that context. It's not a huge number. 6%
I know, I'm merely saying that the fact that ninety Covid deaths may be regarded as something actually to be welcomed, relative to the tsunami of bodies we had only a few weeks ago, is rather sad.
However, it does look like the release of the little Plague spreaders tomorrow is the final major obstacle left to go. If that doesn't cause everything to go to crap then, hallelujah, I think we're almost done with this thing. We're not completely safe from the dreaded super-variants, but where mutations have been appearing so far they all seem to be shifting the disease in the same direction, so hopefully the fact that the evil Kent Plague has already descended upon us and now predominates will mean that there are no more nasty surprises.
Good thread here on R and the school reopening in September-
It also implies there might be something explosive in the Oprah stuff
It’s Commonwealth Day, in lieu of the usual services. I think it’s been planned for a while.
Can't recall such an address before, and if it has indeed been planned it has not been well publicised.
It is, of course, highly possible that Harry and Meghan (or their PR team) knew this speech was coming, and timed their interview broadcast accordingly. To amplify its apparent impact
Fuxake Matt, they're not going to shag you whatever the level of crawling. (poss exception made if you can convincingly impersonate a 15 year old Californian girl).
I'm done with this whole naff idea of "national claps" for ANYONE. It's pure CRINGE. I want to forget we ever did it. I want to go back to not knowing my neighbours and not caring if they die. I want to go back to being a surely, selfish Londoner watching my house appreciate in value, and fuck everyone else, as I guzzle champagne in the Groucho Club
NO MORE CLAPPING
I hadn’t realised that anyone did the clap out of anything other than extreme boredom or in drunken irony.
I sense it was for some a way of connecting with others. Like when prisoners bang things against the bars of their cells.
Fuxake Matt, they're not going to shag you whatever the level of crawling. (poss exception made if you can convincingly impersonate a 15 year old Californian girl).
I'm done with this whole naff idea of "national claps" for ANYONE. It's pure CRINGE. I want to forget we ever did it. I want to go back to not knowing my neighbours and not caring if they die. I want to go back to being a surely, selfish Londoner watching my house appreciate in value, and fuck everyone else, as I guzzle champagne in the Groucho Club
NO MORE CLAPPING
I hadn’t realised that anyone did the clap out of anything other than extreme boredom or in drunken irony.
I did it a total of twice. The first was oddly moving, the second was boring and faintly cringe-worthy, I never did it again after that, and never will
I did it almost every time originally, and with the Captain Tom one. Didn't do it to make a point or anything, did it and would do it again purely because the kids love doing it.
Quite frankly them staying at home makes everyone a bit stir crazy at times and stepping outside and clapping and seeing the neighbours was something they absolutely loved. If they grow up and remember the clap as a happy moment rather than being stuck at home then I'll be pleased with that. 👍
I REALLY went off it when I heard about some friends who missed a clap, because of a mild family emergency, and then they got angry or insinuating texts from neighbours. "Where were you today?" "Why weren't you clapping?" "Don't you care??".
Emotional fascism. Enough, now
Sounds like your friends neighbours are dickheads.
We never had any of that in our neighbourhood.
The only thing noteworthy was that the first couple of claps my retired next door neighbour was absent for because she was hospitalised with the virus. So we would ask neighbours who knew her better about her condition. Thankfully she made a full recovery so her presence at the next clap was celebrated and made it even more special.
There was no judging of people who weren't present.
It's come to something where "only" ninety corpses in a day is considered a measure of great progress, but nonetheless that's where we are. Double rather than treble figures on this measure, for the first time in months I'd imagine.
That's also a 40% reduction week-on-week, after a similar reduction the previous week as well. If that rate of progress can be maintained then the equivalent value by mid-April should be down into single figures.
Remember , however, that 1500 people die every day in the UK in an average year (more in winter). So "90 corpses" should be seen in that context. It's not a huge number. 6%
I know, I'm merely saying that the fact that ninety Covid deaths may be regarded as something actually to be welcomed, relative to the tsunami of bodies we had only a few weeks ago, is rather sad.
However, it does look like the release of the little Plague spreaders tomorrow is the final major obstacle left to go. If that doesn't cause everything to go to crap then, hallelujah, I think we're almost done with this thing. We're not completely safe from the dreaded super-variants, but where mutations have been appearing so far they all seem to be shifting the disease in the same direction, so hopefully the fact that the evil Kent Plague has already descended upon us and now predominates will mean that there are no more nasty surprises.
Good thread here on R and the school reopening in September-
Unless LFTs are completely useless, it will cause a rise in cases. But that's different from a rise in the 'R' rate (horrible bloody cliche, like social distancing).
Please check my figures
There were 5,215,283 12-18 year olds in the UK in 2019.
Test 2x a week = 10,430,566
Divide by 7, to give an additional daily number of 1,490,081
The seven day average on testing is bouncing around a lot. I think the spike in numbers is pre-return-testing. Both my children have had a pre return to school test already.....
But, if it was 600k+ before, we are looking at 2m+ tests per day, average.
The desire for Ed Balls -- who I don't remember as being very good, remember the sacking of Sharon Shoesmith in the HoC -- is the same mistake as the appointment of SKS in the first place.
Labour need a fresh & young team (preferably with more women) not an old team of stale, male has-beens.
There are plenty of fresh voices in Labour. If they want to replace Dodds, Rachel Reeves would be a better choice than Ed Balls.
I couldn't stand Balls when he was around, whereas Ed M was just meh. Both have seemed better since, but are probably not the answer.
Few people could stand Ed Balls when he was around.
In the following five years he's done a bit of baking and dancing and joined the list of 'great lost prime ministers'.
Apparently he was also lauded for travelling around the Mid West asking why people had voted for Trump.
If he'd shown the same interest in the people of Morley and Outwood as he did for those in Michigan and Iowa his political career might not have come to such an abrupt end.
On the header, it may be worth noting that Batley and Spen was Jo Cox's seat before her untimely murder. I won quite a lot of money at the 2017 GE betting on Labour, at evens, to hold it; Brabin won very comfortably. Labour may still have a bit of a residual sympathy vote there.
On Ed Balls, it seems like only yesterday (though it may be around 10 years ago) that Tories were viewing him as the devil incarnate. How times change. Before we know, it, they'll be recommending that us Labourites bring back McDonnell and Corbyn. But thanks for the advice. (I like Ed Balls, as it happens).
More anecdotals, I've a close family member who has had dealings with William's professional staff via work. My impression is the staff in question isn't the type to throw out these sort of allegations lightly. Ok, Meghan probably isn't the only primadonna member of the Royal family, but the reality of the situation contrasts hugely with the image the Sussex's are trying to project (and the reality of William/Kate - by all accounts unflashy and hard working).
As Charles mentioned a few days ago, Harry strikes me a a bit of a lost soul who has never really dealt with the loss of his mother and was probably most at home in the Army, where he couldn't stay put due to circumstances beyond his control. Enter Meghan, and in the space of a few years there's a kid on the scene, Harry is physically, financially isolated and estranged from his family - especially his brother. I'm very concerned for him.
In life we tend to play out the psychodramas of our childhood.
It is the oldest story in psychology, the oedipus one. In Meghan Harry has found a substitute for his mum and he will not let that go, he will do anything for her, because keeping her safe eases the psychological wound the poor chap still carries from being a child and unable to protect his mother. Hence "Meghan gets what she wants." Of course she does. She's his mother, only now he's a grown man with enormous wealth and power and he can protect her in a way he never could protect his mum as a child.
So in my opinion this story has little to do with racism or even "the institution" that the monarchy is. It is just childhood trauma being played out, unfortunately, on the front pages, due to the fame of the individuals involved. And we should cut them all some slack.
Harry would do well to read Larkin's "this be the verse"... for that reason I feel nothing but sympathy for him (and Meghan - they are clearly deeply wounded individuals). But at the same time he should take his money and lead a peaceful, quiet life away from the spotlight, rather than weaponising it against his geriatric gran and using the very media he professes to hate to attack his own family. He has chosen a very self-destructive path and I feel nothing but sadness for the whole family.
Good analysis.
This, 100%.
I wouldn't forgive them wanting to tap out of the whole Royal soap opera, and live a quiet life away from it all, but I'm less inclined to give either of them slack. They're in the late 30's, are in a incredibly privileged positions, and whatever crap they had to deal with in their childhood not withstanding - their actions in using the press to avenge their perceived wronging (presumably creating considerable stress to HMQ) seem incredibly petit.
Harry at least didn't choose to be born into the situation. However Meghan opted into the whole thing, and the general arrogance and grandiosity she is exhibiting is breathtaking.
Incidentally, on the last thread somebody asked if Gavin Williamson's place at the bottom of the cabinet satisfaction rankings was about right.
The answer is of course no, as he shouldn't be in the cabinet.
But I am rapidly coming to the conclusion that it's not the minister - because even some very able ministers, the likes of Gove, Balls, Clarke and Gauke, have crashed and burned at education over the last thirty years. Clearly something is appallingly, horribly wrong with the department itself.
So the realistic solution is the Hacker solution - abolish the DfE.
It's come to something where "only" ninety corpses in a day is considered a measure of great progress, but nonetheless that's where we are. Double rather than treble figures on this measure, for the first time in months I'd imagine.
That's also a 40% reduction week-on-week, after a similar reduction the previous week as well. If that rate of progress can be maintained then the equivalent value by mid-April should be down into single figures.
Remember , however, that 1500 people die every day in the UK in an average year (more in winter). So "90 corpses" should be seen in that context. It's not a huge number. 6%
I know, I'm merely saying that the fact that ninety Covid deaths may be regarded as something actually to be welcomed, relative to the tsunami of bodies we had only a few weeks ago, is rather sad.
However, it does look like the release of the little Plague spreaders tomorrow is the final major obstacle left to go. If that doesn't cause everything to go to crap then, hallelujah, I think we're almost done with this thing. We're not completely safe from the dreaded super-variants, but where mutations have been appearing so far they all seem to be shifting the disease in the same direction, so hopefully the fact that the evil Kent Plague has already descended upon us and now predominates will mean that there are no more nasty surprises.
Just about everyone with a statistical possibility of dying has now been vaccinated. What are you worried about happening?
That's not true. Some in Group 6 are still waiting, while group 7 is only getting booked in now. 8 and 9 still to come too. Plus it takes 3 weeks for the vaccine to become active.
We're getting close to that point but we're not there yet.
It’s not true that it takes 3 weeks to get a good level of efficacy against hospitalisation. Someone posted the data yesterday.
Wave 1 saw only 500 deaths under 60 with no known pre existing conditions, or about 1% of the total. As for vaccine progress, Max’s data yesterday indicated a very high level of vaccines in arms for at least the over 64s. Nationally there’s an average 20% vaccine penetration in the 16-64 group too. The unwinding from lockdown is proving needlessly and painfully cautious and is in large part only supported by people who have no financial downside from lockdown.
You say "no known pre existing conditions" but when "pre existing conditions" includes things like diabetes, asthma, heart conditions and other issues that can be survived with for another fifty years if you're young then what point are you trying to make?
Group 6 is the under 65s with pre-existing conditions and they've not all been vaccinated yet, though many have.
Should we say if a 20 year old diabetic dies that their death shouldn't be counted as meaningful because they have a pre-existing condition?
I think the unwinding is unnecessarily cautious and should be escalated. Three weeks after Group 9 is done I'd lift restrictions.
But lets not pretend everyone at risk has been vaccinated yet, that's just not true.
What % of the applicable population do you get if you add up nhs and social care workers under 64? Probably about 3 million people out of more than 40 million people. And we know take up in social care sector hasn’t exactly been stellar.
The rest of that 20% figure are largely going to be under 64s on the (greatly expanded) vulnerable list. The back of it is broken for sure, the weird precautions they’re putting in place for schools this week are a bit obscene really.
It also implies there might be something explosive in the Oprah stuff
It’s Commonwealth Day, in lieu of the usual services. I think it’s been planned for a while.
Can't recall such an address before, and if it has indeed been planned it has not been well publicised.
It is, of course, highly possible that Harry and Meghan (or their PR team) knew this speech was coming, and timed their interview broadcast accordingly. To amplify its apparent impact
What a tragic mess
The Sussex's have form for this type of thing, apparently
It's come to something where "only" ninety corpses in a day is considered a measure of great progress, but nonetheless that's where we are. Double rather than treble figures on this measure, for the first time in months I'd imagine.
That's also a 40% reduction week-on-week, after a similar reduction the previous week as well. If that rate of progress can be maintained then the equivalent value by mid-April should be down into single figures.
Remember , however, that 1500 people die every day in the UK in an average year (more in winter). So "90 corpses" should be seen in that context. It's not a huge number. 6%
I know, I'm merely saying that the fact that ninety Covid deaths may be regarded as something actually to be welcomed, relative to the tsunami of bodies we had only a few weeks ago, is rather sad.
However, it does look like the release of the little Plague spreaders tomorrow is the final major obstacle left to go. If that doesn't cause everything to go to crap then, hallelujah, I think we're almost done with this thing. We're not completely safe from the dreaded super-variants, but where mutations have been appearing so far they all seem to be shifting the disease in the same direction, so hopefully the fact that the evil Kent Plague has already descended upon us and now predominates will mean that there are no more nasty surprises.
Good thread here on R and the school reopening in September-
I think at the moment it's foolish to analyse the data at all, simply because it's incomplete and will be incomplete probably for some years. What we've got at the moment are agenda pushers seeing what they want to see - in all directions. So we have the Woolhouse/Young/Contrarian tendency saying there's no risk, and the Chicken Licken/SeanT/Byronic/LadyG/Eadric tendency saying we'll all die if we leave the house without wearing spacesuits. We don't know which is right, although on balance it is suggestive that surges follow schools going back and particularly that the rates of infection in schools - which should in theory be much lower for demographic reasons - closely mirror those in the wider community.
So Johnson saying he would be driven by 'data not dates' was again lying, of course.
It's come to something where "only" ninety corpses in a day is considered a measure of great progress, but nonetheless that's where we are. Double rather than treble figures on this measure, for the first time in months I'd imagine.
That's also a 40% reduction week-on-week, after a similar reduction the previous week as well. If that rate of progress can be maintained then the equivalent value by mid-April should be down into single figures.
Remember , however, that 1500 people die every day in the UK in an average year (more in winter). So "90 corpses" should be seen in that context. It's not a huge number. 6%
I know, I'm merely saying that the fact that ninety Covid deaths may be regarded as something actually to be welcomed, relative to the tsunami of bodies we had only a few weeks ago, is rather sad.
However, it does look like the release of the little Plague spreaders tomorrow is the final major obstacle left to go. If that doesn't cause everything to go to crap then, hallelujah, I think we're almost done with this thing. We're not completely safe from the dreaded super-variants, but where mutations have been appearing so far they all seem to be shifting the disease in the same direction, so hopefully the fact that the evil Kent Plague has already descended upon us and now predominates will mean that there are no more nasty surprises.
Just about everyone with a statistical possibility of dying has now been vaccinated. What are you worried about happening?
That's not true. Some in Group 6 are still waiting, while group 7 is only getting booked in now. 8 and 9 still to come too. Plus it takes 3 weeks for the vaccine to become active.
We're getting close to that point but we're not there yet.
It’s not true that it takes 3 weeks to get a good level of efficacy against hospitalisation. Someone posted the data yesterday.
Wave 1 saw only 500 deaths under 60 with no known pre existing conditions, or about 1% of the total. As for vaccine progress, Max’s data yesterday indicated a very high level of vaccines in arms for at least the over 64s. Nationally there’s an average 20% vaccine penetration in the 16-64 group too. The unwinding from lockdown is proving needlessly and painfully cautious and is in large part only supported by people who have no financial downside from lockdown.
You say "no known pre existing conditions" but when "pre existing conditions" includes things like diabetes, asthma, heart conditions and other issues that can be survived with for another fifty years if you're young then what point are you trying to make?
Group 6 is the under 65s with pre-existing conditions and they've not all been vaccinated yet, though many have.
Should we say if a 20 year old diabetic dies that their death shouldn't be counted as meaningful because they have a pre-existing condition?
I think the unwinding is unnecessarily cautious and should be escalated. Three weeks after Group 9 is done I'd lift restrictions.
But lets not pretend everyone at risk has been vaccinated yet, that's just not true.
Clinically Extremely Vulnerable Cohort Vaccinated % who have had at least 1 dose Total 88.3% East Of England 90.1% London 78.6% Midlands 89.0% North East And Yorkshire 89.8% North West 88.0% South East 91.1% South West 92.5%
That's the state of play at the 28th of Feb, by the way
Incidentally, on the last thread somebody asked if Gavin Williamson's place at the bottom of the cabinet satisfaction rankings was about right.
The answer is of course no, as he shouldn't be in the cabinet.
But I am rapidly coming to the conclusion that it's not the minister - because even some very able ministers, the likes of Gove, Balls, Clarke and Gauke, have crashed and burned at education over the last thirty years. Clearly something is appallingly, horribly wrong with the department itself.
So the realistic solution is the Hacker solution - abolish the DfE.
Re; a post below, the elements of racism and sexism are mainly from the british tabloid press, in the context of its long record of bullying in all sorts of ways, and distorting national debate, rather than from the royal family much themselves, I would say. Ofcourse you won't read this in Britain, as the press themselves set the terms of debate and are now doing it with their new-found adoration for "models of dignity" William and Kate.
The US press, for its own part, is busy setting up a counter-narrative about how Meghan was the feminine, modern breath of fresh air that racist, repressed old colonial master Britain rejected. This is roughly Andie McDowell's character in Four Weddings and a Funeral, which coincidentally was written by a Briton with the US market in mind, so Americans are long familiar with the template.
It's come to something where "only" ninety corpses in a day is considered a measure of great progress, but nonetheless that's where we are. Double rather than treble figures on this measure, for the first time in months I'd imagine.
That's also a 40% reduction week-on-week, after a similar reduction the previous week as well. If that rate of progress can be maintained then the equivalent value by mid-April should be down into single figures.
Remember , however, that 1500 people die every day in the UK in an average year (more in winter). So "90 corpses" should be seen in that context. It's not a huge number. 6%
I know, I'm merely saying that the fact that ninety Covid deaths may be regarded as something actually to be welcomed, relative to the tsunami of bodies we had only a few weeks ago, is rather sad.
However, it does look like the release of the little Plague spreaders tomorrow is the final major obstacle left to go. If that doesn't cause everything to go to crap then, hallelujah, I think we're almost done with this thing. We're not completely safe from the dreaded super-variants, but where mutations have been appearing so far they all seem to be shifting the disease in the same direction, so hopefully the fact that the evil Kent Plague has already descended upon us and now predominates will mean that there are no more nasty surprises.
Good thread here on R and the school reopening in September-
Unless LFTs are completely useless, it will cause a rise in cases. But that's different from a rise in the 'R' rate (horrible bloody cliche, like social distancing).
Please check my figures
There were 5,215,283 12-18 year olds in the UK in 2019.
Test 2x a week = 10,430,566
Divide by 7, to give an additional daily number of 1,490,081
The seven day average on testing is bouncing around a lot. I think the spike in numbers is pre-return-testing. Both my children have had a pre return to school test already.....
But, if it was 600k+ before, we are looking at 2m+ tests per day, average.
I'm not disputing your figures. I'm pointing out the logical hole in the Twitter case.
How useful these extra 1.4million average tests are is another question, of course.
But remember, it won't be averaged after this start. Those tests will be taken on Mondays and Wednesdays. So expect surges reported on Tuesdays and Thursdays.
"It is with a heavy heart and a profound sense of loss that I have to announce the passing of His Royal Highness, Prince William, the Duke of Edinburgh"
Incidentally, on the last thread somebody asked if Gavin Williamson's place at the bottom of the cabinet satisfaction rankings was about right.
The answer is of course no, as he shouldn't be in the cabinet.
But I am rapidly coming to the conclusion that it's not the minister - because even some very able ministers, the likes of Gove, Balls, Clarke and Gauke, have crashed and burned at education over the last thirty years. Clearly something is appallingly, horribly wrong with the department itself.
So the realistic solution is the Hacker solution - abolish the DfE.
Was David Gauke ever an Education Minister?
Nope.
I was just testing to see if anyone spotted my deliberate mistake over Damian Hinds, honest *innocent face*
It's come to something where "only" ninety corpses in a day is considered a measure of great progress, but nonetheless that's where we are. Double rather than treble figures on this measure, for the first time in months I'd imagine.
That's also a 40% reduction week-on-week, after a similar reduction the previous week as well. If that rate of progress can be maintained then the equivalent value by mid-April should be down into single figures.
Remember , however, that 1500 people die every day in the UK in an average year (more in winter). So "90 corpses" should be seen in that context. It's not a huge number. 6%
I know, I'm merely saying that the fact that ninety Covid deaths may be regarded as something actually to be welcomed, relative to the tsunami of bodies we had only a few weeks ago, is rather sad.
However, it does look like the release of the little Plague spreaders tomorrow is the final major obstacle left to go. If that doesn't cause everything to go to crap then, hallelujah, I think we're almost done with this thing. We're not completely safe from the dreaded super-variants, but where mutations have been appearing so far they all seem to be shifting the disease in the same direction, so hopefully the fact that the evil Kent Plague has already descended upon us and now predominates will mean that there are no more nasty surprises.
Good thread here on R and the school reopening in September-
I think at the moment it's foolish to analyse the data at all, simply because it's incomplete and will be incomplete probably for some years. What we've got at the moment are agenda pushers seeing what they want to see - in all directions. So we have the Woolhouse/Young/Contrarian tendency saying there's no risk, and the Chicken Licken/SeanT/Byronic/LadyG/Eadric tendency saying we'll all die if we leave the house without wearing spacesuits. We don't know which is right, although on balance it is suggestive that surges follow schools going back and particularly that the rates of infection in schools - which should in theory be much lower for demographic reasons - closely mirror those in the wider community.
So Johnson saying he would be driven by 'data not dates' was again lying, of course.
I don't know who these other dudes are, except I vaguely remember SeanT as exceptionally witty and kind, but point of order: this is really NOT my perspective.
I am on the Hurry Up side of the argument. If these vaccines continue to work as well as they are, and we don't suffer any more variants, then I reckon the government should speed up our deconfinement. Indeed, I think HMG will actually do this, (if all goes well) because
1, the economic, social and political pressure to do that will be intense, we can't afford a single day of unecessary lockdown, and
2, people will start unlockdowning themselves, anyway. I can already see it happening, more people on the street, more shoppers, more crowds, more people having quiet drinks with friends in front yards and gardens. I hope to join them: I get my jab on Friday, and 3 weeks after that I will start living as normally as possible. I'm done with this. A whole year. End it
It's come to something where "only" ninety corpses in a day is considered a measure of great progress, but nonetheless that's where we are. Double rather than treble figures on this measure, for the first time in months I'd imagine.
That's also a 40% reduction week-on-week, after a similar reduction the previous week as well. If that rate of progress can be maintained then the equivalent value by mid-April should be down into single figures.
Remember , however, that 1500 people die every day in the UK in an average year (more in winter). So "90 corpses" should be seen in that context. It's not a huge number. 6%
I know, I'm merely saying that the fact that ninety Covid deaths may be regarded as something actually to be welcomed, relative to the tsunami of bodies we had only a few weeks ago, is rather sad.
However, it does look like the release of the little Plague spreaders tomorrow is the final major obstacle left to go. If that doesn't cause everything to go to crap then, hallelujah, I think we're almost done with this thing. We're not completely safe from the dreaded super-variants, but where mutations have been appearing so far they all seem to be shifting the disease in the same direction, so hopefully the fact that the evil Kent Plague has already descended upon us and now predominates will mean that there are no more nasty surprises.
Just about everyone with a statistical possibility of dying has now been vaccinated. What are you worried about happening?
That's not true. Some in Group 6 are still waiting, while group 7 is only getting booked in now. 8 and 9 still to come too. Plus it takes 3 weeks for the vaccine to become active.
We're getting close to that point but we're not there yet.
It’s not true that it takes 3 weeks to get a good level of efficacy against hospitalisation. Someone posted the data yesterday.
Wave 1 saw only 500 deaths under 60 with no known pre existing conditions, or about 1% of the total. As for vaccine progress, Max’s data yesterday indicated a very high level of vaccines in arms for at least the over 64s. Nationally there’s an average 20% vaccine penetration in the 16-64 group too. The unwinding from lockdown is proving needlessly and painfully cautious and is in large part only supported by people who have no financial downside from lockdown.
You say "no known pre existing conditions" but when "pre existing conditions" includes things like diabetes, asthma, heart conditions and other issues that can be survived with for another fifty years if you're young then what point are you trying to make?
Group 6 is the under 65s with pre-existing conditions and they've not all been vaccinated yet, though many have.
Should we say if a 20 year old diabetic dies that their death shouldn't be counted as meaningful because they have a pre-existing condition?
I think the unwinding is unnecessarily cautious and should be escalated. Three weeks after Group 9 is done I'd lift restrictions.
But lets not pretend everyone at risk has been vaccinated yet, that's just not true.
What % of the applicable population do you get if you add up nhs and social care workers under 64? Probably about 3 million people out of more than 40 million people. And we know take up in social care sector hasn’t exactly been stellar.
The rest of that 20% figure are largely going to be under 64s on the (greatly expanded) vulnerable list. The back of it is broken for sure, the weird precautions they’re putting in place for schools this week are a bit obscene really.
Actually take up in the care sector has been fairly stellar. It hasn't been universally stellar and hence people talk up the groups that haven't taken it up but overall the take up has been pretty high.
Yes the back of it has been broken. But there's still people to be vaccinated. Saying the back of it has been broken is true enough without going with untruths like everyone vulnerable has been vaccinated.
Garbage like "without pre-existing conditions" is meaningless once you realise that a "pre-existing condition" doesn't mean you've got stage 4 cancer and only a month left to live. Between about a quarter and a third of all adults have a "pre-existing condition". Children are born with "pre-existing conditions".
Organiser of NHS pay protest in city centre facing £10,000 fine
The protest was dispersed peacefully but Greater Manchester Police say organiser Karen Reissmann, 61, will still be handed the maximum Fixed Penalty Notice
It's come to something where "only" ninety corpses in a day is considered a measure of great progress, but nonetheless that's where we are. Double rather than treble figures on this measure, for the first time in months I'd imagine.
That's also a 40% reduction week-on-week, after a similar reduction the previous week as well. If that rate of progress can be maintained then the equivalent value by mid-April should be down into single figures.
Remember , however, that 1500 people die every day in the UK in an average year (more in winter). So "90 corpses" should be seen in that context. It's not a huge number. 6%
I know, I'm merely saying that the fact that ninety Covid deaths may be regarded as something actually to be welcomed, relative to the tsunami of bodies we had only a few weeks ago, is rather sad.
However, it does look like the release of the little Plague spreaders tomorrow is the final major obstacle left to go. If that doesn't cause everything to go to crap then, hallelujah, I think we're almost done with this thing. We're not completely safe from the dreaded super-variants, but where mutations have been appearing so far they all seem to be shifting the disease in the same direction, so hopefully the fact that the evil Kent Plague has already descended upon us and now predominates will mean that there are no more nasty surprises.
Just about everyone with a statistical possibility of dying has now been vaccinated. What are you worried about happening?
That's not true. Some in Group 6 are still waiting, while group 7 is only getting booked in now. 8 and 9 still to come too. Plus it takes 3 weeks for the vaccine to become active.
We're getting close to that point but we're not there yet.
It’s not true that it takes 3 weeks to get a good level of efficacy against hospitalisation. Someone posted the data yesterday.
Wave 1 saw only 500 deaths under 60 with no known pre existing conditions, or about 1% of the total. As for vaccine progress, Max’s data yesterday indicated a very high level of vaccines in arms for at least the over 64s. Nationally there’s an average 20% vaccine penetration in the 16-64 group too. The unwinding from lockdown is proving needlessly and painfully cautious and is in large part only supported by people who have no financial downside from lockdown.
You say "no known pre existing conditions" but when "pre existing conditions" includes things like diabetes, asthma, heart conditions and other issues that can be survived with for another fifty years if you're young then what point are you trying to make?
Group 6 is the under 65s with pre-existing conditions and they've not all been vaccinated yet, though many have.
Should we say if a 20 year old diabetic dies that their death shouldn't be counted as meaningful because they have a pre-existing condition?
I think the unwinding is unnecessarily cautious and should be escalated. Three weeks after Group 9 is done I'd lift restrictions.
But lets not pretend everyone at risk has been vaccinated yet, that's just not true.
Clinically Extremely Vulnerable Cohort Vaccinated % who have had at least 1 dose Total 88.3% East Of England 90.1% London 78.6% Midlands 89.0% North East And Yorkshire 89.8% North West 88.0% South East 91.1% South West 92.5%
That's the state of play at the 28th of Feb, by the way
Extremely vulnerable is Group 4.
Group 6 is the vulnerable, not the extremely vulnerable.
It's come to something where "only" ninety corpses in a day is considered a measure of great progress, but nonetheless that's where we are. Double rather than treble figures on this measure, for the first time in months I'd imagine.
That's also a 40% reduction week-on-week, after a similar reduction the previous week as well. If that rate of progress can be maintained then the equivalent value by mid-April should be down into single figures.
Remember , however, that 1500 people die every day in the UK in an average year (more in winter). So "90 corpses" should be seen in that context. It's not a huge number. 6%
I know, I'm merely saying that the fact that ninety Covid deaths may be regarded as something actually to be welcomed, relative to the tsunami of bodies we had only a few weeks ago, is rather sad.
However, it does look like the release of the little Plague spreaders tomorrow is the final major obstacle left to go. If that doesn't cause everything to go to crap then, hallelujah, I think we're almost done with this thing. We're not completely safe from the dreaded super-variants, but where mutations have been appearing so far they all seem to be shifting the disease in the same direction, so hopefully the fact that the evil Kent Plague has already descended upon us and now predominates will mean that there are no more nasty surprises.
Good thread here on R and the school reopening in September-
I think at the moment it's foolish to analyse the data at all, simply because it's incomplete and will be incomplete probably for some years. What we've got at the moment are agenda pushers seeing what they want to see - in all directions. So we have the Woolhouse/Young/Contrarian tendency saying there's no risk, and the Chicken Licken/SeanT/Byronic/LadyG/Eadric tendency saying we'll all die if we leave the house without wearing spacesuits. We don't know which is right, although on balance it is suggestive that surges follow schools going back and particularly that the rates of infection in schools - which should in theory be much lower for demographic reasons - closely mirror those in the wider community.
So Johnson saying he would be driven by 'data not dates' was again lying, of course.
2, people will start unlockdowning themselves, anyway. I can already see it happening, more people on the street, more shoppers, more crowds, more people having quiet drinks with friends in front yards and gardens. I hope to join them: I get my jab on Friday, and 3 weeks after that I will start living as normally as possible. I'm done with this. A whole year. End it
It's come to something where "only" ninety corpses in a day is considered a measure of great progress, but nonetheless that's where we are. Double rather than treble figures on this measure, for the first time in months I'd imagine.
That's also a 40% reduction week-on-week, after a similar reduction the previous week as well. If that rate of progress can be maintained then the equivalent value by mid-April should be down into single figures.
Remember , however, that 1500 people die every day in the UK in an average year (more in winter). So "90 corpses" should be seen in that context. It's not a huge number. 6%
I know, I'm merely saying that the fact that ninety Covid deaths may be regarded as something actually to be welcomed, relative to the tsunami of bodies we had only a few weeks ago, is rather sad.
However, it does look like the release of the little Plague spreaders tomorrow is the final major obstacle left to go. If that doesn't cause everything to go to crap then, hallelujah, I think we're almost done with this thing. We're not completely safe from the dreaded super-variants, but where mutations have been appearing so far they all seem to be shifting the disease in the same direction, so hopefully the fact that the evil Kent Plague has already descended upon us and now predominates will mean that there are no more nasty surprises.
Good thread here on R and the school reopening in September-
I think at the moment it's foolish to analyse the data at all, simply because it's incomplete and will be incomplete probably for some years. What we've got at the moment are agenda pushers seeing what they want to see - in all directions. So we have the Woolhouse/Young/Contrarian tendency saying there's no risk, and the Chicken Licken/SeanT/Byronic/LadyG/Eadric tendency saying we'll all die if we leave the house without wearing spacesuits. We don't know which is right, although on balance it is suggestive that surges follow schools going back and particularly that the rates of infection in schools - which should in theory be much lower for demographic reasons - closely mirror those in the wider community.
So Johnson saying he would be driven by 'data not dates' was again lying, of course.
I don't know who these other dudes are, except I vaguely remember SeanT as exceptionally witty and kind, but point of order: this is really NOT my perspective.
I am on the Hurry Up side of the argument. If these vaccines continue to work as well as they are, and we don't suffer any more variants, then I reckon the government should speed up our deconfinement. Indeed, I think HMG will actually do this, (if all goes well) because
1, the economic, social and political pressure to do that will be intense, we can't afford a single day of unecessary lockdown, and
2, people will start unlockdowning themselves, anyway. I can already see it happening, more people on the street, more shoppers, more crowds, more people having quiet drinks with friends in front yards and gardens. I hope to join them: I get my jab on Friday, and 3 weeks after that I will start living as normally as possible. I'm done with this. A whole year. End it
It's interesting you thought I was talking about you, given I can't see anywhere in that post I mentioned you at all.
Unless of course you're Contrarian using another browser...
Edit - I think that if schools go back for three weeks with rising infection numbers and no major spike in hospitalisations then there is every chance we will be unlocked by the end of April. But it would be foolish of the government to say that. Much better to keep expectations low.
There's a tiny hint of Spring in the sun today. It's still cold like winter, but my large south facing windows don't know that. Warmth everywhere
We are nearly through this enormous pile of shite
Greater Spotted Woodpeckers are drumming, with distant replies across the valley. Still no singing Chiffchaff yet, which is the real starting pistol for spring. Maybe this week.....
Austerity through the backdoor is the Tory strategy, they are going to sneak through cuts whilst keeping the existing cuts in place, which have destroyed the very fabric of our society and plunged people into poverty.
I wonder how much of that is due to a lack of options? As difficult as it has been for many on the front line, they still have a job.
If anyone asks me how much anyone should be paid, my answer will always be "whatever it takes to get the desired quantity and quality of staff."
There is also the issues that ~£35k a year average nurse salary is double Portugal, significantly more than Spain, before you even consider further afield. And is higher than Germany (although big variations and all sorts of other factors).
I believe Portugal has been particularly hard hit by medical staff leaving for the rest of Europe.
Now that isn't to say 1% is enough, but it isn't simple as I will leave Brexit Britain for massively better pay, as the really big payers isn't trivial to move to in the way it was to go from some countries in Europe to UK.
It's come to something where "only" ninety corpses in a day is considered a measure of great progress, but nonetheless that's where we are. Double rather than treble figures on this measure, for the first time in months I'd imagine.
That's also a 40% reduction week-on-week, after a similar reduction the previous week as well. If that rate of progress can be maintained then the equivalent value by mid-April should be down into single figures.
Remember , however, that 1500 people die every day in the UK in an average year (more in winter). So "90 corpses" should be seen in that context. It's not a huge number. 6%
I know, I'm merely saying that the fact that ninety Covid deaths may be regarded as something actually to be welcomed, relative to the tsunami of bodies we had only a few weeks ago, is rather sad.
However, it does look like the release of the little Plague spreaders tomorrow is the final major obstacle left to go. If that doesn't cause everything to go to crap then, hallelujah, I think we're almost done with this thing. We're not completely safe from the dreaded super-variants, but where mutations have been appearing so far they all seem to be shifting the disease in the same direction, so hopefully the fact that the evil Kent Plague has already descended upon us and now predominates will mean that there are no more nasty surprises.
Good thread here on R and the school reopening in September-
I think at the moment it's foolish to analyse the data at all, simply because it's incomplete and will be incomplete probably for some years. What we've got at the moment are agenda pushers seeing what they want to see - in all directions. So we have the Woolhouse/Young/Contrarian tendency saying there's no risk, and the Chicken Licken/SeanT/Byronic/LadyG/Eadric tendency saying we'll all die if we leave the house without wearing spacesuits. We don't know which is right, although on balance it is suggestive that surges follow schools going back and particularly that the rates of infection in schools - which should in theory be much lower for demographic reasons - closely mirror those in the wider community.
So Johnson saying he would be driven by 'data not dates' was again lying, of course.
I don't know who these other dudes are, except I vaguely remember SeanT as exceptionally witty and kind, but point of order: this is really NOT my perspective.
I am on the Hurry Up side of the argument. If these vaccines continue to work as well as they are, and we don't suffer any more variants, then I reckon the government should speed up our deconfinement. Indeed, I think HMG will actually do this, (if all goes well) because
1, the economic, social and political pressure to do that will be intense, we can't afford a single day of unecessary lockdown, and
2, people will start unlockdowning themselves, anyway. I can already see it happening, more people on the street, more shoppers, more crowds, more people having quiet drinks with friends in front yards and gardens. I hope to join them: I get my jab on Friday, and 3 weeks after that I will start living as normally as possible. I'm done with this. A whole year. End it
It's interesting you thought I was talking about you, given I can't see anywhere in that post I mentioned you at all.
Unless of course you're Contrarian using another browser...
"Licken/SeanT/Byronic/LadyG/Eadric"
Others have alleged at least one of these is me. I can't remember which
It's come to something where "only" ninety corpses in a day is considered a measure of great progress, but nonetheless that's where we are. Double rather than treble figures on this measure, for the first time in months I'd imagine.
That's also a 40% reduction week-on-week, after a similar reduction the previous week as well. If that rate of progress can be maintained then the equivalent value by mid-April should be down into single figures.
Remember , however, that 1500 people die every day in the UK in an average year (more in winter). So "90 corpses" should be seen in that context. It's not a huge number. 6%
I know, I'm merely saying that the fact that ninety Covid deaths may be regarded as something actually to be welcomed, relative to the tsunami of bodies we had only a few weeks ago, is rather sad.
However, it does look like the release of the little Plague spreaders tomorrow is the final major obstacle left to go. If that doesn't cause everything to go to crap then, hallelujah, I think we're almost done with this thing. We're not completely safe from the dreaded super-variants, but where mutations have been appearing so far they all seem to be shifting the disease in the same direction, so hopefully the fact that the evil Kent Plague has already descended upon us and now predominates will mean that there are no more nasty surprises.
Good thread here on R and the school reopening in September-
I think at the moment it's foolish to analyse the data at all, simply because it's incomplete and will be incomplete probably for some years. What we've got at the moment are agenda pushers seeing what they want to see - in all directions. So we have the Woolhouse/Young/Contrarian tendency saying there's no risk, and the Chicken Licken/SeanT/Byronic/LadyG/Eadric tendency saying we'll all die if we leave the house without wearing spacesuits. We don't know which is right, although on balance it is suggestive that surges follow schools going back and particularly that the rates of infection in schools - which should in theory be much lower for demographic reasons - closely mirror those in the wider community.
So Johnson saying he would be driven by 'data not dates' was again lying, of course.
I don't know who these other dudes are, except I vaguely remember SeanT as exceptionally witty and kind, but point of order: this is really NOT my perspective.
I am on the Hurry Up side of the argument. If these vaccines continue to work as well as they are, and we don't suffer any more variants, then I reckon the government should speed up our deconfinement. Indeed, I think HMG will actually do this, (if all goes well) because
1, the economic, social and political pressure to do that will be intense, we can't afford a single day of unecessary lockdown, and
2, people will start unlockdowning themselves, anyway. I can already see it happening, more people on the street, more shoppers, more crowds, more people having quiet drinks with friends in front yards and gardens. I hope to join them: I get my jab on Friday, and 3 weeks after that I will start living as normally as possible. I'm done with this. A whole year. End it
It's interesting you thought I was talking about you, given I can't see anywhere in that post I mentioned you at all.
Unless of course you're Contrarian using another browser...
"Licken/SeanT/Byronic/LadyG/Eadric"
Others have alleged at least one of these is me. I can't remember which
Nobody has ever accused you of being Chicken Licken.
It's come to something where "only" ninety corpses in a day is considered a measure of great progress, but nonetheless that's where we are. Double rather than treble figures on this measure, for the first time in months I'd imagine.
That's also a 40% reduction week-on-week, after a similar reduction the previous week as well. If that rate of progress can be maintained then the equivalent value by mid-April should be down into single figures.
Remember , however, that 1500 people die every day in the UK in an average year (more in winter). So "90 corpses" should be seen in that context. It's not a huge number. 6%
I know, I'm merely saying that the fact that ninety Covid deaths may be regarded as something actually to be welcomed, relative to the tsunami of bodies we had only a few weeks ago, is rather sad.
However, it does look like the release of the little Plague spreaders tomorrow is the final major obstacle left to go. If that doesn't cause everything to go to crap then, hallelujah, I think we're almost done with this thing. We're not completely safe from the dreaded super-variants, but where mutations have been appearing so far they all seem to be shifting the disease in the same direction, so hopefully the fact that the evil Kent Plague has already descended upon us and now predominates will mean that there are no more nasty surprises.
Good thread here on R and the school reopening in September-
Unless LFTs are completely useless, it will cause a rise in cases. But that's different from a rise in the 'R' rate (horrible bloody cliche, like social distancing).
Please check my figures
There were 5,215,283 12-18 year olds in the UK in 2019.
Test 2x a week = 10,430,566
Divide by 7, to give an additional daily number of 1,490,081
The seven day average on testing is bouncing around a lot. I think the spike in numbers is pre-return-testing. Both my children have had a pre return to school test already.....
But, if it was 600k+ before, we are looking at 2m+ tests per day, average.
I'm not disputing your figures. I'm pointing out the logical hole in the Twitter case.
How useful these extra 1.4million average tests are is another question, of course.
But remember, it won't be averaged after this start. Those tests will be taken on Mondays and Wednesdays. So expect surges reported on Tuesdays and Thursdays.
Oh yes, I agree about surges and I assume that anything on Twitter is bollocks until proven otherwise.
The maths of whether somewhat less accurate testing on a mass scale is vital, useful or useless is interesting. My personal guesstimate is on the plus side of useful. If nothing else, the effective screen program will find a lot of unreported COVID in some groups, I think.
The "jump in cases" should keep the Daily Fail happy.....
Day after vaccine. Feeling distinctly ropey. Guess the good news is it is doing something to my immune system.
Almost everyone I know who has had the AZ jab has experienced some unpleasant side effects - generally like a mild one/two day flu. Only one did not, and she is a recovering cancer patient (so it was quite unexpected)
I'm not greatly looking forward to this downer, but who cares, Give me freedom
It's come to something where "only" ninety corpses in a day is considered a measure of great progress, but nonetheless that's where we are. Double rather than treble figures on this measure, for the first time in months I'd imagine.
That's also a 40% reduction week-on-week, after a similar reduction the previous week as well. If that rate of progress can be maintained then the equivalent value by mid-April should be down into single figures.
Remember , however, that 1500 people die every day in the UK in an average year (more in winter). So "90 corpses" should be seen in that context. It's not a huge number. 6%
I know, I'm merely saying that the fact that ninety Covid deaths may be regarded as something actually to be welcomed, relative to the tsunami of bodies we had only a few weeks ago, is rather sad.
However, it does look like the release of the little Plague spreaders tomorrow is the final major obstacle left to go. If that doesn't cause everything to go to crap then, hallelujah, I think we're almost done with this thing. We're not completely safe from the dreaded super-variants, but where mutations have been appearing so far they all seem to be shifting the disease in the same direction, so hopefully the fact that the evil Kent Plague has already descended upon us and now predominates will mean that there are no more nasty surprises.
Good thread here on R and the school reopening in September-
Unless LFTs are completely useless, it will cause a rise in cases. But that's different from a rise in the 'R' rate (horrible bloody cliche, like social distancing).
Please check my figures
There were 5,215,283 12-18 year olds in the UK in 2019.
Test 2x a week = 10,430,566
Divide by 7, to give an additional daily number of 1,490,081
The seven day average on testing is bouncing around a lot. I think the spike in numbers is pre-return-testing. Both my children have had a pre return to school test already.....
But, if it was 600k+ before, we are looking at 2m+ tests per day, average.
I'm not disputing your figures. I'm pointing out the logical hole in the Twitter case.
How useful these extra 1.4million average tests are is another question, of course.
But remember, it won't be averaged after this start. Those tests will be taken on Mondays and Wednesdays. So expect surges reported on Tuesdays and Thursdays.
Oh yes, I agree about surges and I assume that anything on Twitter is bollocks until proven otherwise.
The maths of whether somewhat less accurate testing on a mass scale is vital, useful or useless is interesting. My personal guesstimate is on the plus side of useful. If nothing else, the effective screen program will find a lot of unreported COVID in some groups, I think.
The "jump in cases" should keep the Daily Fail happy.....
If more previously unreported cases are found then could that reduce rather than increase R?
Austerity through the backdoor is the Tory strategy, they are going to sneak through cuts whilst keeping the existing cuts in place, which have destroyed the very fabric of our society and plunged people into poverty.
How much of that is cuts to COVID testing though? It's an annual £40bn budget that gets added to NHS spending.
It's come to something where "only" ninety corpses in a day is considered a measure of great progress, but nonetheless that's where we are. Double rather than treble figures on this measure, for the first time in months I'd imagine.
That's also a 40% reduction week-on-week, after a similar reduction the previous week as well. If that rate of progress can be maintained then the equivalent value by mid-April should be down into single figures.
Remember , however, that 1500 people die every day in the UK in an average year (more in winter). So "90 corpses" should be seen in that context. It's not a huge number. 6%
I know, I'm merely saying that the fact that ninety Covid deaths may be regarded as something actually to be welcomed, relative to the tsunami of bodies we had only a few weeks ago, is rather sad.
However, it does look like the release of the little Plague spreaders tomorrow is the final major obstacle left to go. If that doesn't cause everything to go to crap then, hallelujah, I think we're almost done with this thing. We're not completely safe from the dreaded super-variants, but where mutations have been appearing so far they all seem to be shifting the disease in the same direction, so hopefully the fact that the evil Kent Plague has already descended upon us and now predominates will mean that there are no more nasty surprises.
Good thread here on R and the school reopening in September-
I think at the moment it's foolish to analyse the data at all, simply because it's incomplete and will be incomplete probably for some years. What we've got at the moment are agenda pushers seeing what they want to see - in all directions. So we have the Woolhouse/Young/Contrarian tendency saying there's no risk, and the Chicken Licken/SeanT/Byronic/LadyG/Eadric tendency saying we'll all die if we leave the house without wearing spacesuits. We don't know which is right, although on balance it is suggestive that surges follow schools going back and particularly that the rates of infection in schools - which should in theory be much lower for demographic reasons - closely mirror those in the wider community.
So Johnson saying he would be driven by 'data not dates' was again lying, of course.
It does look as if school children are the highest prevalence population at the moment:
It's come to something where "only" ninety corpses in a day is considered a measure of great progress, but nonetheless that's where we are. Double rather than treble figures on this measure, for the first time in months I'd imagine.
That's also a 40% reduction week-on-week, after a similar reduction the previous week as well. If that rate of progress can be maintained then the equivalent value by mid-April should be down into single figures.
Remember , however, that 1500 people die every day in the UK in an average year (more in winter). So "90 corpses" should be seen in that context. It's not a huge number. 6%
I know, I'm merely saying that the fact that ninety Covid deaths may be regarded as something actually to be welcomed, relative to the tsunami of bodies we had only a few weeks ago, is rather sad.
However, it does look like the release of the little Plague spreaders tomorrow is the final major obstacle left to go. If that doesn't cause everything to go to crap then, hallelujah, I think we're almost done with this thing. We're not completely safe from the dreaded super-variants, but where mutations have been appearing so far they all seem to be shifting the disease in the same direction, so hopefully the fact that the evil Kent Plague has already descended upon us and now predominates will mean that there are no more nasty surprises.
Just about everyone with a statistical possibility of dying has now been vaccinated. What are you worried about happening?
That's not true. Some in Group 6 are still waiting, while group 7 is only getting booked in now. 8 and 9 still to come too. Plus it takes 3 weeks for the vaccine to become active.
We're getting close to that point but we're not there yet.
It’s not true that it takes 3 weeks to get a good level of efficacy against hospitalisation. Someone posted the data yesterday.
Wave 1 saw only 500 deaths under 60 with no known pre existing conditions, or about 1% of the total. As for vaccine progress, Max’s data yesterday indicated a very high level of vaccines in arms for at least the over 64s. Nationally there’s an average 20% vaccine penetration in the 16-64 group too. The unwinding from lockdown is proving needlessly and painfully cautious and is in large part only supported by people who have no financial downside from lockdown.
You say "no known pre existing conditions" but when "pre existing conditions" includes things like diabetes, asthma, heart conditions and other issues that can be survived with for another fifty years if you're young then what point are you trying to make?
Group 6 is the under 65s with pre-existing conditions and they've not all been vaccinated yet, though many have.
Should we say if a 20 year old diabetic dies that their death shouldn't be counted as meaningful because they have a pre-existing condition?
I think the unwinding is unnecessarily cautious and should be escalated. Three weeks after Group 9 is done I'd lift restrictions.
But lets not pretend everyone at risk has been vaccinated yet, that's just not true.
Clinically Extremely Vulnerable Cohort Vaccinated % who have had at least 1 dose Total 88.3% East Of England 90.1% London 78.6% Midlands 89.0% North East And Yorkshire 89.8% North West 88.0% South East 91.1% South West 92.5%
That's the state of play at the 28th of Feb, by the way
That’s Group 4, not Group 6. It’s also worth noting that even Group 6 does not come close to including everyone with a condition as per the NHS definitions (a lot of asthmatics and most of those with mental health issues aren’t in Group 6)
Austerity through the backdoor is the Tory strategy, they are going to sneak through cuts whilst keeping the existing cuts in place, which have destroyed the very fabric of our society and plunged people into poverty.
How much of that is cuts to COVID testing though? It's an annual £40bn budget that gets added to NHS spending.
“Health spending to return to trajectory that was planned before massive emergency spending increases to cope with a once in 100 year pandemic” is not exactly the story of the century.
Mr. Leon, my dad had no side-effects. My mother and her friend both felt very tired (all Oxford/AstraZeneca).
It seems to be totally random. I can't see any pattern to who feels ropey and who doesn't, or who feels mildly tired and who feels wretched for days (rare but it happens)
It's come to something where "only" ninety corpses in a day is considered a measure of great progress, but nonetheless that's where we are. Double rather than treble figures on this measure, for the first time in months I'd imagine.
That's also a 40% reduction week-on-week, after a similar reduction the previous week as well. If that rate of progress can be maintained then the equivalent value by mid-April should be down into single figures.
Remember , however, that 1500 people die every day in the UK in an average year (more in winter). So "90 corpses" should be seen in that context. It's not a huge number. 6%
I know, I'm merely saying that the fact that ninety Covid deaths may be regarded as something actually to be welcomed, relative to the tsunami of bodies we had only a few weeks ago, is rather sad.
However, it does look like the release of the little Plague spreaders tomorrow is the final major obstacle left to go. If that doesn't cause everything to go to crap then, hallelujah, I think we're almost done with this thing. We're not completely safe from the dreaded super-variants, but where mutations have been appearing so far they all seem to be shifting the disease in the same direction, so hopefully the fact that the evil Kent Plague has already descended upon us and now predominates will mean that there are no more nasty surprises.
Good thread here on R and the school reopening in September-
I think at the moment it's foolish to analyse the data at all, simply because it's incomplete and will be incomplete probably for some years. What we've got at the moment are agenda pushers seeing what they want to see - in all directions. So we have the Woolhouse/Young/Contrarian tendency saying there's no risk, and the Chicken Licken/SeanT/Byronic/LadyG/Eadric tendency saying we'll all die if we leave the house without wearing spacesuits. We don't know which is right, although on balance it is suggestive that surges follow schools going back and particularly that the rates of infection in schools - which should in theory be much lower for demographic reasons - closely mirror those in the wider community.
So Johnson saying he would be driven by 'data not dates' was again lying, of course.
I don't know who these other dudes are, except I vaguely remember SeanT as exceptionally witty and kind, but point of order: this is really NOT my perspective.
I am on the Hurry Up side of the argument. If these vaccines continue to work as well as they are, and we don't suffer any more variants, then I reckon the government should speed up our deconfinement. Indeed, I think HMG will actually do this, (if all goes well) because
1, the economic, social and political pressure to do that will be intense, we can't afford a single day of unecessary lockdown, and
2, people will start unlockdowning themselves, anyway. I can already see it happening, more people on the street, more shoppers, more crowds, more people having quiet drinks with friends in front yards and gardens. I hope to join them: I get my jab on Friday, and 3 weeks after that I will start living as normally as possible. I'm done with this. A whole year. End it
It's interesting you thought I was talking about you, given I can't see anywhere in that post I mentioned you at all.
Unless of course you're Contrarian using another browser...
"Licken/SeanT/Byronic/LadyG/Eadric"
Others have alleged at least one of these is me. I can't remember which
Nobody has ever accused you of being Chicken Licken.
Day after vaccine. Feeling distinctly ropey. Guess the good news is it is doing something to my immune system.
Almost everyone I know who has had the AZ jab has experienced some unpleasant side effects - generally like a mild one/two day flu. Only one did not, and she is a recovering cancer patient (so it was quite unexpected)
I'm not greatly looking forward to this downer, but who cares, Give me freedom
One amusing anecdote I heard is from someone who works in a care home for dementia residents. She said all the staff were moaning for days afterwards about their side effects, but by hours after injection the residents were back to normal and very few residents had any noticeable side effects.
The residents dementia basically meant they forgot they were injected so it wasn't playing in their heads and few complaints.
Day after vaccine. Feeling distinctly ropey. Guess the good news is it is doing something to my immune system.
Almost everyone I know who has had the AZ jab has experienced some unpleasant side effects - generally like a mild one/two day flu. Only one did not, and she is a recovering cancer patient (so it was quite unexpected)
I'm not greatly looking forward to this downer, but who cares, Give me freedom
One amusing anecdote I heard is from someone who works in a care home for dementia residents. She said all the staff were moaning for days afterwards about their side effects, but by hours after injection the residents were back to normal and very few residents had any noticeable side effects.
The residents dementia basically meant they forgot they were injected so it wasn't playing in their heads and few complaints.
Older people have less vigorous immune systems, hence less reaction. People who have had covid (as many care workers would have) also tend to get more reaction.
Day after vaccine. Feeling distinctly ropey. Guess the good news is it is doing something to my immune system.
Almost everyone I know who has had the AZ jab has experienced some unpleasant side effects - generally like a mild one/two day flu. Only one did not, and she is a recovering cancer patient (so it was quite unexpected)
I'm not greatly looking forward to this downer, but who cares, Give me freedom
One amusing anecdote I heard is from someone who works in a care home for dementia residents. She said all the staff were moaning for days afterwards about their side effects, but by hours after injection the residents were back to normal and very few residents had any noticeable side effects.
The residents dementia basically meant they forgot they were injected so it wasn't playing in their heads and few complaints.
Fake news. It’s because it impacts the immune systems of younger people differently to the old, as per trial data. And subsequent to the rollout, because it impacts you more severely if you’ve had the virus or not. They’re doing a great job of keeping the often quite awful unpleasantness of the Azn side effects to the young out the media. Well done I suppose. I know of big MNCs that are now advising their staff to preemptively clear their diaries for 48 hrs after an Azn dose. Hasn’t made the news of course but it’s happening.
It's come to something where "only" ninety corpses in a day is considered a measure of great progress, but nonetheless that's where we are. Double rather than treble figures on this measure, for the first time in months I'd imagine.
That's also a 40% reduction week-on-week, after a similar reduction the previous week as well. If that rate of progress can be maintained then the equivalent value by mid-April should be down into single figures.
Remember , however, that 1500 people die every day in the UK in an average year (more in winter). So "90 corpses" should be seen in that context. It's not a huge number. 6%
I know, I'm merely saying that the fact that ninety Covid deaths may be regarded as something actually to be welcomed, relative to the tsunami of bodies we had only a few weeks ago, is rather sad.
However, it does look like the release of the little Plague spreaders tomorrow is the final major obstacle left to go. If that doesn't cause everything to go to crap then, hallelujah, I think we're almost done with this thing. We're not completely safe from the dreaded super-variants, but where mutations have been appearing so far they all seem to be shifting the disease in the same direction, so hopefully the fact that the evil Kent Plague has already descended upon us and now predominates will mean that there are no more nasty surprises.
Good thread here on R and the school reopening in September-
I think at the moment it's foolish to analyse the data at all, simply because it's incomplete and will be incomplete probably for some years. What we've got at the moment are agenda pushers seeing what they want to see - in all directions. So we have the Woolhouse/Young/Contrarian tendency saying there's no risk, and the Chicken Licken/SeanT/Byronic/LadyG/Eadric tendency saying we'll all die if we leave the house without wearing spacesuits. We don't know which is right, although on balance it is suggestive that surges follow schools going back and particularly that the rates of infection in schools - which should in theory be much lower for demographic reasons - closely mirror those in the wider community.
So Johnson saying he would be driven by 'data not dates' was again lying, of course.
It does look as if school children are the highest prevalence population at the moment:
Day after vaccine. Feeling distinctly ropey. Guess the good news is it is doing something to my immune system.
Almost everyone I know who has had the AZ jab has experienced some unpleasant side effects - generally like a mild one/two day flu. Only one did not, and she is a recovering cancer patient (so it was quite unexpected)
I'm not greatly looking forward to this downer, but who cares, Give me freedom
One amusing anecdote I heard is from someone who works in a care home for dementia residents. She said all the staff were moaning for days afterwards about their side effects, but by hours after injection the residents were back to normal and very few residents had any noticeable side effects.
The residents dementia basically meant they forgot they were injected so it wasn't playing in their heads and few complaints.
Residents are older so fewer side effects due to less severe immune reaction...
Day after vaccine. Feeling distinctly ropey. Guess the good news is it is doing something to my immune system.
Almost everyone I know who has had the AZ jab has experienced some unpleasant side effects - generally like a mild one/two day flu. Only one did not, and she is a recovering cancer patient (so it was quite unexpected)
I'm not greatly looking forward to this downer, but who cares, Give me freedom
One amusing anecdote I heard is from someone who works in a care home for dementia residents. She said all the staff were moaning for days afterwards about their side effects, but by hours after injection the residents were back to normal and very few residents had any noticeable side effects.
The residents dementia basically meant they forgot they were injected so it wasn't playing in their heads and few complaints.
Residents are older so fewer side effects due to less severe immune reaction...
F1: if you have a free bet or don't mind a tiny wager, I quite like a special. Yes, I was surprised too.
Mercedes are 51, 61 with boost, to take every race win in 2021 (sprint races do not count).
Regulation changes are around the corner which will divert resources to that, and they've been dominant for a long time. It's unlikely, but not that unlikely.
Last year four races were won by others. Two of these were down to chaotic silliness, and two were Verstappen.
Anyway, if you want to spend a pound or two, this is, I think, of some value. But don't whack down a lot.
It's come to something where "only" ninety corpses in a day is considered a measure of great progress, but nonetheless that's where we are. Double rather than treble figures on this measure, for the first time in months I'd imagine.
That's also a 40% reduction week-on-week, after a similar reduction the previous week as well. If that rate of progress can be maintained then the equivalent value by mid-April should be down into single figures.
Remember , however, that 1500 people die every day in the UK in an average year (more in winter). So "90 corpses" should be seen in that context. It's not a huge number. 6%
I know, I'm merely saying that the fact that ninety Covid deaths may be regarded as something actually to be welcomed, relative to the tsunami of bodies we had only a few weeks ago, is rather sad.
However, it does look like the release of the little Plague spreaders tomorrow is the final major obstacle left to go. If that doesn't cause everything to go to crap then, hallelujah, I think we're almost done with this thing. We're not completely safe from the dreaded super-variants, but where mutations have been appearing so far they all seem to be shifting the disease in the same direction, so hopefully the fact that the evil Kent Plague has already descended upon us and now predominates will mean that there are no more nasty surprises.
Good thread here on R and the school reopening in September-
I think at the moment it's foolish to analyse the data at all, simply because it's incomplete and will be incomplete probably for some years. What we've got at the moment are agenda pushers seeing what they want to see - in all directions. So we have the Woolhouse/Young/Contrarian tendency saying there's no risk, and the Chicken Licken/SeanT/Byronic/LadyG/Eadric tendency saying we'll all die if we leave the house without wearing spacesuits. We don't know which is right, although on balance it is suggestive that surges follow schools going back and particularly that the rates of infection in schools - which should in theory be much lower for demographic reasons - closely mirror those in the wider community.
So Johnson saying he would be driven by 'data not dates' was again lying, of course.
It does look as if school children are the highest prevalence population at the moment:
Which is hardly surprising given how many of them have still been in school while the rest of us were locked down.
If they hadn't been, that would have been good evidence that schools do not spread it.
There are hints in the Israeli data that schools do raise R. Their schools have been opening since early Feb and R is slightly increasing, as is the case load. This may be schools? Or it could be the Orthodox Jews who are allegedly refusing to socially isolate/take the vax. Or a mix of the two, probably
However Israeli deaths and hospitalisations are all, still, decreasing, which is way more important than cases
Mr. Leon, I read a suggestion it was related to whether or not someone had had COVID unknowingly. Could make sense.
But a couple of days of feeling very tired is a minor thing for the protection offered.
Husband was quite ill for a couple of days after his jab. I am assuming I'll probably go the same way when my turn finally comes (hopefully within the next few weeks.)
We were both rather unwell around Christmas 2019 (I was good for nothing for the better part of a fortnight,) and have always harboured a suspicion that Covid was already in circulation then and we may have had it. But we'll never know, I suppose.
Day after vaccine. Feeling distinctly ropey. Guess the good news is it is doing something to my immune system.
Almost everyone I know who has had the AZ jab has experienced some unpleasant side effects - generally like a mild one/two day flu. Only one did not, and she is a recovering cancer patient (so it was quite unexpected)
I'm not greatly looking forward to this downer, but who cares, Give me freedom
It's not too bad. I'll take a day or so of this over living in France and being locked down until March 2022!
F1: if you have a free bet or don't mind a tiny wager, I quite like a special. Yes, I was surprised too.
Mercedes are 51, 61 with boost, to take every race win in 2021 (sprint races do not count).
Regulation changes are around the corner which will divert resources to that, and they've been dominant for a long time. It's unlikely, but not that unlikely.
Last year four races were won by others. Two of these were down to chaotic silliness, and two were Verstappen.
Anyway, if you want to spend a pound or two, this is, I think, of some value. But don't whack down a lot.
Edited extra bit: Ladbrokes, of course.
Really can't see it but at those odds it's worth a £2 or so (probably max £5 anyway given it's ladbrokes)
Also there are downforce regulation changes this year - so it's not as clear cut as it may look
and we also saw that once Mercedes won everything they stopped caring a bit.
Comments
As if @DavidL would leave out an apostrophe.
If that's the case, deaths are running somewhere around 100 per week and falling, and the vaccination scheme is well into the fortysomethings by that point, then the Government may struggle to justify taking five whole weeks until step 3, and another five weeks after that until restrictions are substantially ended. But that would be a nice problem for both them and us to have.
https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1368533585687363585
The answer is of course no, as he shouldn't be in the cabinet.
But I am rapidly coming to the conclusion that it's not the minister - because even some very able ministers, the likes of Gove, Balls, Clarke and Gauke, have crashed and burned at education over the last thirty years. Clearly something is appallingly, horribly wrong with the department itself.
So the realistic solution is the Hacker solution - abolish the DfE.
https://twitter.com/MENnewsdesk/status/1368525578618421248?s=20
It also implies there might be something explosive in the Oprah stuff
(Provided that I get to be at least a baron and ideally an earl.)
New admissions
04/02 1,907
04/03 596
Patients in hospital
06/02 23,042
06/03 8,021
Patients on ventilators
06/02 3,099
06/03 1,326
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
https://twitter.com/rupert_pearse/status/1368119816712839169
enlightening and sobering
My son was living with a nurse during the first wave, the fear they had was very real.
My tuppence worth, frontline NHS staff deserve more than a 1% increase
Quite frankly them staying at home makes everyone a bit stir crazy at times and stepping outside and clapping and seeing the neighbours was something they absolutely loved. If they grow up and remember the clap as a happy moment rather than being stuck at home then I'll be pleased with that. 👍
Though I doubt that most of the people who most need to will do so.
Wave 1 saw only 500 deaths under 60 with no known pre existing conditions, or about 1% of the total. As for vaccine progress, Max’s data yesterday indicated a very high level of vaccines in arms for at least the over 64s. Nationally there’s an average 20% vaccine penetration in the 16-64 group too. The unwinding from lockdown is proving needlessly and painfully cautious and is in large part only supported by people who have no financial downside from lockdown.
Emotional fascism. Enough, now
Group 6 is the under 65s with pre-existing conditions and they've not all been vaccinated yet, though many have.
Should we say if a 20 year old diabetic dies that their death shouldn't be counted as meaningful because they have a pre-existing condition?
I think the unwinding is unnecessarily cautious and should be escalated. Three weeks after Group 9 is done I'd lift restrictions.
But lets not pretend everyone at risk has been vaccinated yet, that's just not true.
https://twitter.com/DoveFirebrand/status/1368569192010506245
What a tragic mess
We never had any of that in our neighbourhood.
The only thing noteworthy was that the first couple of claps my retired next door neighbour was absent for because she was hospitalised with the virus. So we would ask neighbours who knew her better about her condition. Thankfully she made a full recovery so her presence at the next clap was celebrated and made it even more special.
There was no judging of people who weren't present.
https://www.westminster-abbey.org/abbey-news/a-celebration-for-commonwealth-day
There were 5,215,283 12-18 year olds in the UK in 2019.
Test 2x a week = 10,430,566
Divide by 7, to give an additional daily number of 1,490,081
The seven day average on testing is bouncing around a lot. I think the spike in numbers is pre-return-testing. Both my children have had a pre return to school test already.....
But, if it was 600k+ before, we are looking at 2m+ tests per day, average.
In the following five years he's done a bit of baking and dancing and joined the list of 'great lost prime ministers'.
Apparently he was also lauded for travelling around the Mid West asking why people had voted for Trump.
If he'd shown the same interest in the people of Morley and Outwood as he did for those in Michigan and Iowa his political career might not have come to such an abrupt end.
On Ed Balls, it seems like only yesterday (though it may be around 10 years ago) that Tories were viewing him as the devil incarnate. How times change. Before we know, it, they'll be recommending that us Labourites bring back McDonnell and Corbyn. But thanks for the advice. (I like Ed Balls, as it happens).
I wouldn't forgive them wanting to tap out of the whole Royal soap opera, and live a quiet life away from it all, but I'm less inclined to give either of them slack. They're in the late 30's, are in a incredibly privileged positions, and whatever crap they had to deal with in their childhood not withstanding - their actions in using the press to avenge their perceived wronging (presumably creating considerable stress to HMQ) seem incredibly petit.
Harry at least didn't choose to be born into the situation. However Meghan opted into the whole thing, and the general arrogance and grandiosity she is exhibiting is breathtaking.
CON would have no chance in the Batley & Spen by election - LAB nailed on
Yes excellent idea - for LAB - to bring Ed Balls back!
The rest of that 20% figure are largely going to be under 64s on the (greatly expanded) vulnerable list. The back of it is broken for sure, the weird precautions they’re putting in place for schools this week are a bit obscene really.
https://Twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1368580317326508032
So Johnson saying he would be driven by 'data not dates' was again lying, of course.
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Clinically Extremely Vulnerable Cohort Vaccinated % who have had at least 1 dose
Total 88.3%
East Of England 90.1%
London 78.6%
Midlands 89.0%
North East And Yorkshire 89.8%
North West 88.0%
South East 91.1%
South West 92.5%
That's the state of play at the 28th of Feb, by the way
But of course you’re right that Group 6s are still waiting like yours truly.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/record-numbers-of-doctors-and-nurses-working-in-the-nhs
I wonder how much of that is due to a lack of options? As difficult as it has been for many on the front line, they still have a job.
If anyone asks me how much anyone should be paid, my answer will always be "whatever it takes to get the desired quantity and quality of staff."
The US press, for its own part, is busy setting up a counter-narrative about how Meghan was the feminine, modern breath of fresh air that racist, repressed old colonial master Britain rejected. This is roughly Andie McDowell's character in Four Weddings and a Funeral, which coincidentally was written by a Briton with the US market in mind, so Americans are long familiar with the template.
How useful these extra 1.4million average tests are is another question, of course.
But remember, it won't be averaged after this start. Those tests will be taken on Mondays and Wednesdays. So expect surges reported on Tuesdays and Thursdays.
I read somewhere (here most likely) that he wasn't even a Labour member currently? (May have misread/misinterpreted)
"It is with a heavy heart and a profound sense of loss that I have to announce the passing of His Royal Highness, Prince William, the Duke of Edinburgh"
I am on the Hurry Up side of the argument. If these vaccines continue to work as well as they are, and we don't suffer any more variants, then I reckon the government should speed up our deconfinement. Indeed, I think HMG will actually do this, (if all goes well) because
1, the economic, social and political pressure to do that will be intense, we can't afford a single day of unecessary lockdown, and
2, people will start unlockdowning themselves, anyway. I can already see it happening, more people on the street, more shoppers, more crowds, more people having quiet drinks with friends in front yards and gardens. I hope to join them: I get my jab on Friday, and 3 weeks after that I will start living as normally as possible. I'm done with this. A whole year. End it
Yes the back of it has been broken. But there's still people to be vaccinated. Saying the back of it has been broken is true enough without going with untruths like everyone vulnerable has been vaccinated.
Garbage like "without pre-existing conditions" is meaningless once you realise that a "pre-existing condition" doesn't mean you've got stage 4 cancer and only a month left to live. Between about a quarter and a third of all adults have a "pre-existing condition". Children are born with "pre-existing conditions".
The protest was dispersed peacefully but Greater Manchester Police say organiser Karen Reissmann, 61, will still be handed the maximum Fixed Penalty Notice
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/nhs-pay-protest-fine-manchester-19984620#source=breaking-news
Group 6 is the vulnerable, not the extremely vulnerable.
https://www.westminster-abbey.org/abbey-news/a-celebration-for-commonwealth-day
Unless of course you're Contrarian using another browser...
Edit - I think that if schools go back for three weeks with rising infection numbers and no major spike in hospitalisations then there is every chance we will be unlocked by the end of April. But it would be foolish of the government to say that. Much better to keep expectations low.
Austerity through the backdoor is the Tory strategy, they are going to sneak through cuts whilst keeping the existing cuts in place, which have destroyed the very fabric of our society and plunged people into poverty.
I believe Portugal has been particularly hard hit by medical staff leaving for the rest of Europe.
Now that isn't to say 1% is enough, but it isn't simple as I will leave Brexit Britain for massively better pay, as the really big payers isn't trivial to move to in the way it was to go from some countries in Europe to UK.
Others have alleged at least one of these is me. I can't remember which
The maths of whether somewhat less accurate testing on a mass scale is vital, useful or useless is interesting. My personal guesstimate is on the plus side of useful. If nothing else, the effective screen program will find a lot of unreported COVID in some groups, I think.
The "jump in cases" should keep the Daily Fail happy.....
I'm not greatly looking forward to this downer, but who cares, Give me freedom
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1367448762025672704?s=19
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/queen-set-give-message-nation-19886802
Normally the BBC broadcasts a Church Service. Here is the 2020 one. This is replacing:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000g74q/a-celebration-for-commonwealth-day-2020
There will be no acknowledgement of the other.
It’s also worth noting that even Group 6 does not come close to including everyone with a condition as per the NHS definitions (a lot of asthmatics and most of those with mental health issues aren’t in Group 6)
https://twitter.com/C_Sommerfeldt/status/1368305136267886602
Odd.
The residents dementia basically meant they forgot they were injected so it wasn't playing in their heads and few complaints.
But a couple of days of feeling very tired is a minor thing for the protection offered.
Anyway, soz boz apolibobs
That said, it is far better than covid.
If they hadn't been, that would have been good evidence that schools do not spread it.
OPENAI DISCOVERS ARTIFICIAL NEURON ONLY EVER SEEN IN THE HUMAN BRAIN
https://openai.com/blog/multimodal-neurons/
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/artificial-intelligence-openai-elon-musk-ai-neuron-b1813106.html
Danke
Betting PostF1: if you have a free bet or don't mind a tiny wager, I quite like a special. Yes, I was surprised too.
Mercedes are 51, 61 with boost, to take every race win in 2021 (sprint races do not count).
Regulation changes are around the corner which will divert resources to that, and they've been dominant for a long time. It's unlikely, but not that unlikely.
Last year four races were won by others. Two of these were down to chaotic silliness, and two were Verstappen.
Anyway, if you want to spend a pound or two, this is, I think, of some value. But don't whack down a lot.
Edited extra bit: Ladbrokes, of course.
However Israeli deaths and hospitalisations are all, still, decreasing, which is way more important than cases
We were both rather unwell around Christmas 2019 (I was good for nothing for the better part of a fortnight,) and have always harboured a suspicion that Covid was already in circulation then and we may have had it. But we'll never know, I suppose.
Also there are downforce regulation changes this year - so it's not as clear cut as it may look
and we also saw that once Mercedes won everything they stopped caring a bit.
https://twitter.com/FishGirls23/status/1368577845166018565
just for Prince Andrews expression.
I think the ongoing probable dominance coupled with major teams wanting to be the top dogs under the new regulations should provide value.
Likely to be a value loser, but then, so was backing Perez in Sakhir.
Edited extra bit: anyway, I must be off.