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Like Brian Rose, Laurence Fox seems like a clear lay for London Mayor – politicalbetting.com

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    HYUFD said:
    Some Scots waking up to the fact the fact that the real nasty party is, and always has been, the SNP.
    SNP -> Con swing 3% on list, 4% on Constituency in the past 6 weeks.

    SNP -> Lab swing 3.5% on list, 4% on Constituency in the past 6 weeks.
    Excellent, should give enough time in the next 10 weeks to put on another 5% swing!
  • malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    ClippP said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 46% (-3)
    No: 47% (+3)

    Excl. undecideds:
    Yes: 49% (-4)
    No: 51% (+4)

    via @Panelbase
    , 03 - 05 Mar
    Chgs. w/ Jan 2021

    This pol and the other one yesterday offer a great opportunity for Unionist parties to fight effectively agsinst the SNP. However, I doubt whether either the LDs or Labour have it in them to play their part of the bargain and vote Tory where they are the challengers. In failing they could well bring the Union down.
    Works both ways of course, in many places.
    That is my point - the Tories have shown willing at both party and voter level. Not so the other two.
    Of course. You have misunderstood the situation. We have it on the authority of HY no less, that the top priority for Conservatives is to defeat the SNP. It follows that Conservatives will vote for Lib Dem or Labour candidates if they have a good chance of defeating an SNP candidate.

    On the other hand, most normal Labour and Lib Dem voters strongly dislike the Tories, and even more so under the leadership of the present shower. There is nothing I want to see as much as Conservative candidates defeated. I could even be persuaded to consider voting SNP (were the conditions right), so much do I detest and despise the present government.
    Golly. How thick are you? Bye bye Union.
    Unionist tactical voting is pointless
    https://twitter.com/bnhw_/status/1367864926954524681?s=20

    That is really stretching it , if the Tories great hopes are based on these two insignificant wards in Lanarkshire , where we saw a swing to SNP in reality.
    On today's Panelbase poll there is a 0.25% swing from SNP to Scottish Conservative on the constituency vote since 2016
    Much less than MOE then , that will surely make all the difference
    SNP seats like Edinburgh Pentlands, Perthshire South and Kinrossshire and Aberdeen South and North Kincardine had an SNP vote under 40% in 2016 and would fall with that swing and even the smallest Labour and LD tactical voting for the Conservatives
    Just for you HYFUD, given the numbers quoted are unweighted, here are the real numbers that will surely be confirmed soon. I wonder why they released unweighted numbers, very odd indeed.

    47% Yes
    42% No
    (Inc DK)

    53% Yes
    47% No
    (Excl DK)
    Whiffy.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1368521997957922817?s=21
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1368521999191056387?s=21

    Old faithful.

    https://twitter.com/hyufd1/status/1368522446106734592?s=21
    Irrespective of the poll you like and the one you do not, it is clear this last week has been a PR disaster for Sturgeon and the mood music is changing

    There is a lot more to come on this between now and May and the drip drip of incompetence and stitch ups are going to have a toll on both her and independence
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    kle4 said:

    Anyway politics off the agenda for the media today as they go way over the top with the Sussex's interview

    Really who cares?

    People always ask that but it sells papers and gets enough attention that media feel they need to do it. The answer is lots of people.

    I wont bother to watch, but after such build up there better be something juicy out of it.
    I won't be watching it either but I feel sorry for them.

    The way they're being treated is like people who leave a cult getting shunned and ostracised by their own family.
    They are the ones behaving appallingly. I just hope they stay in America, period. They are a busted flush on the UK.

    Marrying an American never works.. there is history...
    Confirmation bias does an awful lot of work here: those who are already republican or unsympathetic to the royal family are inclined to take Harry and Meghan's side, and vice-versa.

    I've seen enough evidence to be fairly certain that (a) Meghan found it hard and wasn't prepared for the constraints and criticism that come with being a royal (b) she behaved with an exceptional sense of entitlement and treated many of her staff like a Hollywood diva, and her side doesn't deny that allegations of complaints exist (c) HMQ tried her best to find a solution that squared the circle, although she couldn't let them have their cake and eat it as that's not what being an active royal means or can mean (d) Harry has been torn and conflicted throughout but has sided with her as he genuinely loves her and much of the above played into his pre-existing fears and anxieties.

    It seems to be they should have taken the middle ground solution, respecting Harry's difficult position, his friends and family in the UK, the impact on the wider institution, the need to give Meghan the flexibility and profile she wanted, and the Royals should have done their best to close down nasty snides and attacks from parts of the media at the same time, but it all fell apart and they seem to have gone nuclear instead.

    Personally? I think Meghan has far more of her Dad in her than she'd care to admit.
    Indeed you can take the boy out of the estate..
    A rather unpleasant take on this whole business.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Anyway politics off the agenda for the media today as they go way over the top with the Sussex's interview

    Really who cares?

    Hell hath no fury, like the Daily Mail scorned.

    It will make the Daily Mail as mad as hell. For that I would like to give the happy couple credit.
    My wife tells me today's Mail on Sunday has twelve (yes 12) pages on this stuff

    They have lost all reason and sense and join the Express as a non serious gossip rag

    Also I understand they have to publish a front page apology but no sign today
    Today is the day that you stand on the shore and you sense that the earth is trembling underfoot.

    And you go back to your house & you lock and shutter it & you evacuate your family to the best emergency safe space you can find.

    Because the tsunami is coming.

    Monday morning, we will all be full fathom five deep in Merkle-mania.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,017

    HYUFD said:

    New Panelbase poll has further bad news for Sturgeon with the SNP down 5% on the Scottish Parliament constituency vote and down 4% on the list vote and virtually unchanged on the 46.5% and 41% it got in 2016. Both the Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Labour are up 3% each and the Greens are also down.

    If true that means the SNP risks no majority at all in May

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1368372868569042945?s=20
    https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/1368477645034389507?s=20

    And polling could be even worse as more is revealed

    I do not expect Sturgeon is having a very happy weekend looking at the Scottish newspapers and polls
    They are welcome but I'm not sure the polls are bad enough yet for SNP + Greens to lose their majority.

    The future of the Union could really hinge on the maths of that.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    edited March 2021

    Scott_xP said:
    Hilarious, absolutely hilarious.

    I'm sure the minimum wage earning cashier will be heartbroken at the nurse earning much more than they earn getting a less than expected pay rise.

    Especially in a year that many of the cashiers customers far from getting a pay rise have had substantial pay cuts or lost their job altogether.

    What a laugh that is!
    Tories versus those who fought COVID in the trenches, And the NHS what won the war.

    Starmer can’t believe his luck.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,017
    Quincel said:

    I had a look at the Twitter accounts of the more right-wing candidates who are trying to stand for Mayor. Fox is way out in front on followers.

    Laurence Fox 265,000 on Twitter, The Reclaim Party 44,100
    Shaun Bailey 76,600, Conservatives 511,600
    David Kurten, 62,800, Heritage Party 5262
    Brian Rose 19,700, @brianrose4mayor 1460, @LondonRealTV 166,000
    Peter Gammons 807, UKIP 202,500, @UKIPLondon 404
    Charlie Mullins 260

    Reform UK are on 220,100 follows as a party and have indicated they will stand a candidate, but haven't picked someone yet.

    I think all of them are lays on the current betting! Were there a bet possible on Fox vs. Rose vs. Kurten vs. Gammons, that might be interesting.

    Ah, but what are their TikTok numbers like?
    "What's up, TikTok?"
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    edited March 2021

    https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1368524322533441538

    I await the Sun's outrage about this, of course they will treat a Labour MP and Tory MP with balance

    Linkedin Premium is even more expensive than free engraving.

    But MPs made a rod for their own back with this ludicrous expenses system. They should just change it to a fixed allowance like London weighting which they can spend on whatever they like, and have employment and IT handled by central authorities.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    edited March 2021
    Daily Mail in a right old froth of Merkle/Markle arseholery today (yeah, I know, plus ca change).

    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1368518270484160513?s=21
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880

    Dura_Ace said:


    Where is all the new extra money going ?

    Mainly acknowledging reality and filling the £13 billion shortfall in already committed programs. There's a bit left over for a token effort in space and cyber.
    This seems to happen every 5 years.

    And then a new massive black hole emerges.

    We won't have anything left in 20 years.
    The MoD keeps doing massive vanity projects (Carriers, Vanguard/Trident) that hollow out every other capability.

    They are about to do it again with Tempest. The F-35B buy is going to be cut from 138 to 48 to (partially) pay for it.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,459
    dixiedean said:

    On topic. Just how many right of centre self publicists, grifters and chancers does London have?
    And are any of them not running for Mayor?

    Dominic Cummings isn't (as far as I know).
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287

    Anyway politics off the agenda for the media today as they go way over the top with the Sussex's interview

    Really who cares?

    Hell hath no fury, like the Daily Mail scorned.

    It will make the Daily Mail as mad as hell. For that I would like to give the happy couple credit.
    My wife tells me today's Mail on Sunday has twelve (yes 12) pages on this stuff

    They have lost all reason and sense and join the Express as a non serious gossip rag

    Also I understand they have to publish a front page apology but no sign today
    Today is the day that you stand on the shore and you sense that the earth is trembling underfoot.

    And you go back to your house & you lock and shutter it & you evacuate your family to the best emergency safe space you can find.

    Because the tsunami is coming.

    Monday morning, we will all be full fathom five deep in Merkle-mania.
    No "we" will not. Its easy to avoid it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited March 2021

    HYUFD said:

    New Panelbase poll has further bad news for Sturgeon with the SNP down 5% on the Scottish Parliament constituency vote and down 4% on the list vote and virtually unchanged on the 46.5% and 41% it got in 2016. Both the Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Labour are up 3% each and the Greens are also down.

    If true that means the SNP risks no majority at all in May

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1368372868569042945?s=20
    https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/1368477645034389507?s=20

    And polling could be even worse as more is revealed

    I do not expect Sturgeon is having a very happy weekend looking at the Scottish newspapers and polls
    They are welcome but I'm not sure the polls are bad enough yet for SNP + Greens to lose their majority.

    The future of the Union could really hinge on the maths of that.
    Boris will refuse a legal indyref2 regardless and Union matters are reserved to Westminster, if the SNP lose seats and fail to even win a majority just means they cannot credibly hold an illegal referendum either and instead Sturgeon will face a revolt from Salmond loyalists
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Daily Mail in a right old froth of arseholery today (yeah, I know, plus ca change).

    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1368518270484160513?s=21

    She's hidden her marxism well.
  • The big strategic error - IMHO and I'm a Labour guy so take it with your chosen amount of salt - was that the Tories really bigged up the NHS with the clapping and Johnson's personal thanks to them, etc. and that's why people see them differently to other workers.

    They made the bed, now they have to get into it.
  • HYUFD said:
    Some Scots waking up to the fact the fact that the real nasty party is, and always has been, the SNP.
    It is open door opportunity time for the other parties, thats for sure. The challenge for the other parties is that if they are campaigning on "the SNP are corrupt, vote for us", its a bit back to basics.

    This is especially an issue for the Tories. Davidson's imminent chicken run to the Lords makes it hard to attack on democracy grounds. As for attacking on corruption or competence grounds, again difficult to do considering the Westminster government's shenanigans.

    I can see turnout - lack of it - being the real change vs 2016.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    For all those of you who regularly complain that London gets a disproportionate amount of resources over the rest of the country: want to take a crack at explaining the paucity of Mayoral candidates we get? This is the absolute most horrendous list I can imagine, and (other than Johnson (twice), and the few months we had to dream about Rory the ex-Tory) there's never been a candidate standing I could anything other than depressed about.

    Sadiq Khan is genuinely the best candidate on the list by miles, and I hate absolutely everything he stands for. For the first time in my life, I have no clue who to vote for.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    HYUFD said:
    Some Scots waking up to the fact the fact that the real nasty party is, and always has been, the SNP.
    Usual crap from you, back under your rock for another week or two please.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    edited March 2021
    Endillion said:

    For all those of you who regularly complain that London gets a disproportionate amount of resources over the rest of the country: want to take a crack at explaining the paucity of Mayoral candidates we get? This is the absolute most horrendous list I can imagine, and (other than Johnson (twice), and the few months we had to dream about Rory the ex-Tory) there's never been a candidate standing I could anything other than depressed about.

    Sadiq Khan is genuinely the best candidate on the list by miles, and I hate absolutely everything he stands for. For the first time in my life, I have no clue who to vote for.

    I am actually fairly sympathetic to some of what Fox has to say. But he's far too bad at actually saying it for me to even consider supporting him - any germ of a point he might have tends to get lost via the obnoxious ways he tends to express it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    Endillion said:



    Sadiq Khan is genuinely the best candidate on the list by miles, and I hate absolutely everything he stands for. For the first time in my life, I have no clue who to vote for.

    Haven't you rather answered your own question? You may not like that answer.

  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited March 2021
    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    For all those of you who regularly complain that London gets a disproportionate amount of resources over the rest of the country: want to take a crack at explaining the paucity of Mayoral candidates we get? This is the absolute most horrendous list I can imagine, and (other than Johnson (twice), and the few months we had to dream about Rory the ex-Tory) there's never been a candidate standing I could anything other than depressed about.

    Sadiq Khan is genuinely the best candidate on the list by miles, and I hate absolutely everything he stands for. For the first time in my life, I have no clue who to vote for.

    I am actually fairly sympathetic to some of what Fox has to say. But he's far too bad at actually saying it for me to even consider supporting him - any germ of a point he might have tends to get lost via the obnoxious ways he tends to express it.
    This is a problem across the political spectrum at the moment - not least because our social media ecosystems encourage polarisation for clicks, but also on account of longer and deeper-rooted reasons too, I think.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    The big strategic error - IMHO and I'm a Labour guy so take it with your chosen amount of salt - was that the Tories really bigged up the NHS with the clapping and Johnson's personal thanks to them, etc. and that's why people see them differently to other workers.

    They made the bed, now they have to get into it.

    I don't think that would have made much of a difference to be honest. Pay rises for nurses would always have been popular, and given the mood and people's usual attitude to the NHS Johnson could hardly do otherwise even if he wanted to (and there's no reason to think the thanks were not sincere).

    If it is not a plan to at least concede to a rise that is managable, then it was a pretty lowball offer, but as an issue a conflict was probably unavoidable.
    Endillion said:

    For all those of you who regularly complain that London gets a disproportionate amount of resources over the rest of the country: want to take a crack at explaining the paucity of Mayoral candidates we get? This is the absolute most horrendous list I can imagine, and (other than Johnson (twice), and the few months we had to dream about Rory the ex-Tory) there's never been a candidate standing I could anything other than depressed about.

    Sadiq Khan is genuinely the best candidate on the list by miles, and I hate absolutely everything he stands for. For the first time in my life, I have no clue who to vote for.

    If one person looks like they will very easily, credible candidates are both hard to find for the top opposition (though as a non-Londoner I don't know what about Bailey is so bad, but people seem to be agreed he is), and yet also will pop up as attention grabbing also rans, as there's no one for those bad candidates to rally behind.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Endillion said:

    For all those of you who regularly complain that London gets a disproportionate amount of resources over the rest of the country: want to take a crack at explaining the paucity of Mayoral candidates we get? This is the absolute most horrendous list I can imagine, and (other than Johnson (twice), and the few months we had to dream about Rory the ex-Tory) there's never been a candidate standing I could anything other than depressed about.

    Sadiq Khan is genuinely the best candidate on the list by miles, and I hate absolutely everything he stands for. For the first time in my life, I have no clue who to vote for.

    Given 55% of Londoners did not even vote in the last Mayoral and Assembly election even if you actively vote or spoil your ballot you will be more involved than most Londoners
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,002
    edited March 2021

    HYUFD said:
    Some Scots waking up to the fact the fact that the real nasty party is, and always has been, the SNP.
    It is open door opportunity time for the other parties, thats for sure. The challenge for the other parties is that if they are campaigning on "the SNP are corrupt, vote for us", its a bit back to basics.

    This is especially an issue for the Tories. Davidson's imminent chicken run to the Lords makes it hard to attack on democracy grounds. As for attacking on corruption or competence grounds, again difficult to do considering the Westminster government's shenanigans.

    I can see turnout - lack of it - being the real change vs 2016.
    Douglas Ross will lead the Holyrood campaign to be fair, but from a cast iron large majority in little over a week a poll this morning gives the SNP a majority of 1 and it should be also noted from the polling the Greens are losing a few points

    Last week has opened the door to a different result in Holyrood than anyone thought before
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    ClippP said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 46% (-3)
    No: 47% (+3)

    Excl. undecideds:
    Yes: 49% (-4)
    No: 51% (+4)

    via @Panelbase
    , 03 - 05 Mar
    Chgs. w/ Jan 2021

    This pol and the other one yesterday offer a great opportunity for Unionist parties to fight effectively agsinst the SNP. However, I doubt whether either the LDs or Labour have it in them to play their part of the bargain and vote Tory where they are the challengers. In failing they could well bring the Union down.
    Works both ways of course, in many places.
    That is my point - the Tories have shown willing at both party and voter level. Not so the other two.
    Of course. You have misunderstood the situation. We have it on the authority of HY no less, that the top priority for Conservatives is to defeat the SNP. It follows that Conservatives will vote for Lib Dem or Labour candidates if they have a good chance of defeating an SNP candidate.

    On the other hand, most normal Labour and Lib Dem voters strongly dislike the Tories, and even more so under the leadership of the present shower. There is nothing I want to see as much as Conservative candidates defeated. I could even be persuaded to consider voting SNP (were the conditions right), so much do I detest and despise the present government.
    Golly. How thick are you? Bye bye Union.
    Unionist tactical voting is pointless
    https://twitter.com/bnhw_/status/1367864926954524681?s=20

    That is really stretching it , if the Tories great hopes are based on these two insignificant wards in Lanarkshire , where we saw a swing to SNP in reality.
    On today's Panelbase poll there is a 0.25% swing from SNP to Scottish Conservative on the constituency vote since 2016
    Much less than MOE then , that will surely make all the difference
    SNP seats like Edinburgh Pentlands, Perthshire South and Kinrossshire and Aberdeen South and North Kincardine had an SNP vote under 40% in 2016 and would fall with that swing and even the smallest Labour and LD tactical voting for the Conservatives
    Just for you HYFUD, given the numbers quoted are unweighted, here are the real numbers that will surely be confirmed soon. I wonder why they released unweighted numbers, very odd indeed.

    47% Yes
    42% No
    (Inc DK)

    53% Yes
    47% No
    (Excl DK)
    POLLS are NOT real numbers .
    I know that , I was merely pointing out to the deluded HYFUD that he was spouting his usual fake numbers.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695

    Anyway politics off the agenda for the media today as they go way over the top with the Sussex's interview

    Really who cares?

    Hell hath no fury, like the Daily Mail scorned.

    It will make the Daily Mail as mad as hell. For that I would like to give the happy couple credit.
    My wife tells me today's Mail on Sunday has twelve (yes 12) pages on this stuff

    They have lost all reason and sense and join the Express as a non serious gossip rag

    Also I understand they have to publish a front page apology but no sign today
    I think they're appealing the court ruling?

    And I mean the media coverage today is a bit excessive but it's not every day the Queens grandson and granddaughter-in-law sits down with Oprah to throw the Royal Family under the bus... Media coverage/scrutiny was bound to intense...

    Which makes the decision to do the interview quite odd given H&M are always going on about how they want to be private in their mansion in LA! ;)
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited March 2021
    kle4 said:

    Daily Mail in a right old froth of arseholery today (yeah, I know, plus ca change).

    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1368518270484160513?s=21

    She's hidden her marxism well.
    "They hide the training of marxist internationalism". This reminds me very much of their piece on Ralph Miliband, and by nudge-wink implication Ed Miliband, although this time without the antisemitic subtext as part of the whole sparkling package too.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    Omnium said:

    I think those numbers are quite right too.

    Would anyone object to Williamson being bottom? ydoethur?
    Wow, Bozo's doing well there isn't he? !!
    I can’t remember a time it was so obvious a minister was going to be sacked in the reshuffle as it is with Williamson. He must be a complete lame duck when he meets people.
    He might hang on. He's so bad at the moment that you know he can only improve. Ditching him now would probably end forever any aspirations he has, and if Boris lets him continue then he'll owe him pretty much undying loyalty. Given he was chief whip he's clearly going to have some influence.

    So I think he's likely to go, but not certain.
    'Given he was chief whip he's clearly going to have some influence. '
    Or ability to blackmail?

    Given our PM's ability to wriggle out of sticky situations he must have something pretty big on him!
    Well yes. I had that somewhat in mind too.

    Who knows when we'll get a reshuffle anyway - if I was Boris I simply wouldn't have one. I don't think they're ever really a good thing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    ClippP said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 46% (-3)
    No: 47% (+3)

    Excl. undecideds:
    Yes: 49% (-4)
    No: 51% (+4)

    via @Panelbase
    , 03 - 05 Mar
    Chgs. w/ Jan 2021

    This pol and the other one yesterday offer a great opportunity for Unionist parties to fight effectively agsinst the SNP. However, I doubt whether either the LDs or Labour have it in them to play their part of the bargain and vote Tory where they are the challengers. In failing they could well bring the Union down.
    Works both ways of course, in many places.
    That is my point - the Tories have shown willing at both party and voter level. Not so the other two.
    Of course. You have misunderstood the situation. We have it on the authority of HY no less, that the top priority for Conservatives is to defeat the SNP. It follows that Conservatives will vote for Lib Dem or Labour candidates if they have a good chance of defeating an SNP candidate.

    On the other hand, most normal Labour and Lib Dem voters strongly dislike the Tories, and even more so under the leadership of the present shower. There is nothing I want to see as much as Conservative candidates defeated. I could even be persuaded to consider voting SNP (were the conditions right), so much do I detest and despise the present government.
    Golly. How thick are you? Bye bye Union.
    Unionist tactical voting is pointless
    https://twitter.com/bnhw_/status/1367864926954524681?s=20

    That is really stretching it , if the Tories great hopes are based on these two insignificant wards in Lanarkshire , where we saw a swing to SNP in reality.
    On today's Panelbase poll there is a 0.25% swing from SNP to Scottish Conservative on the constituency vote since 2016
    Much less than MOE then , that will surely make all the difference
    SNP seats like Edinburgh Pentlands, Perthshire South and Kinrossshire and Aberdeen South and North Kincardine had an SNP vote under 40% in 2016 and would fall with that swing and even the smallest Labour and LD tactical voting for the Conservatives
    Just for you HYFUD, given the numbers quoted are unweighted, here are the real numbers that will surely be confirmed soon. I wonder why they released unweighted numbers, very odd indeed.

    47% Yes
    42% No
    (Inc DK)

    53% Yes
    47% No
    (Excl DK)
    POLLS are NOT real numbers .
    I know that , I was merely pointing out to the deluded HYFUD that he was spouting his usual fake numbers.
    Nothing fake about them, all the polls show a swing to No today and the Holyrood poll shows a swing against the SNP and Greens
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    ClippP said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 46% (-3)
    No: 47% (+3)

    Excl. undecideds:
    Yes: 49% (-4)
    No: 51% (+4)

    via @Panelbase
    , 03 - 05 Mar
    Chgs. w/ Jan 2021

    This pol and the other one yesterday offer a great opportunity for Unionist parties to fight effectively agsinst the SNP. However, I doubt whether either the LDs or Labour have it in them to play their part of the bargain and vote Tory where they are the challengers. In failing they could well bring the Union down.
    Works both ways of course, in many places.
    That is my point - the Tories have shown willing at both party and voter level. Not so the other two.
    Of course. You have misunderstood the situation. We have it on the authority of HY no less, that the top priority for Conservatives is to defeat the SNP. It follows that Conservatives will vote for Lib Dem or Labour candidates if they have a good chance of defeating an SNP candidate.

    On the other hand, most normal Labour and Lib Dem voters strongly dislike the Tories, and even more so under the leadership of the present shower. There is nothing I want to see as much as Conservative candidates defeated. I could even be persuaded to consider voting SNP (were the conditions right), so much do I detest and despise the present government.
    Golly. How thick are you? Bye bye Union.
    Unionist tactical voting is pointless
    https://twitter.com/bnhw_/status/1367864926954524681?s=20

    That is really stretching it , if the Tories great hopes are based on these two insignificant wards in Lanarkshire , where we saw a swing to SNP in reality.
    On today's Panelbase poll there is a 0.25% swing from SNP to Scottish Conservative on the constituency vote since 2016
    Much less than MOE then , that will surely make all the difference
    SNP seats like Edinburgh Pentlands, Perthshire South and Kinrossshire and Aberdeen South and North Kincardine had an SNP vote under 40% in 2016 and would fall with that swing and even the smallest Labour and LD tactical voting for the Conservatives
    Just for you HYFUD, given the numbers quoted are unweighted, here are the real numbers that will surely be confirmed soon. I wonder why they released unweighted numbers, very odd indeed.

    47% Yes
    42% No
    (Inc DK)

    53% Yes
    47% No
    (Excl DK)
    Whiffy.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1368521997957922817?s=21
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1368521999191056387?s=21

    Old faithful.

    https://twitter.com/hyufd1/status/1368522446106734592?s=21
    Irrespective of the poll you like and the one you do not, it is clear this last week has been a PR disaster for Sturgeon and the mood music is changing

    There is a lot more to come on this between now and May and the drip drip of incompetence and stitch ups are going to have a toll on both her and independence
    People should note SNP is not same as INDEPENDENCE
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    dixiedean said:

    Endillion said:



    Sadiq Khan is genuinely the best candidate on the list by miles, and I hate absolutely everything he stands for. For the first time in my life, I have no clue who to vote for.

    Haven't you rather answered your own question? You may not like that answer.

    He'd clearly make the best Mayor, in terms of how convincing he'd be at making statements, managing his office and fielding questions from the press and public. I'd just rather someone useless who's trying to do things I agree with/don't care about, than someone marginally competent (but basically only good at self-promotion) doing things I disagree with.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    https://twitter.com/spectator/status/1368527953374642176

    Terrible idea. Kids don't learn more by being at school longer, just as people don't get more work done by being at work longer

    Any evidence for that?

    After school clubs and activities work well for those that do it.

    I don't think there's anything magical about the current length of the school day.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    Endillion said:

    dixiedean said:

    Endillion said:



    Sadiq Khan is genuinely the best candidate on the list by miles, and I hate absolutely everything he stands for. For the first time in my life, I have no clue who to vote for.

    Haven't you rather answered your own question? You may not like that answer.

    He'd clearly make the best Mayor, in terms of how convincing he'd be at making statements, managing his office and fielding questions from the press and public. I'd just rather someone useless who's trying to do things I agree with/don't care about, than someone marginally competent (but basically only good at self-promotion) doing things I disagree with.
    Fair enough. If I were you then (and you aren't, and have no need to take any notice of me of course), I would vote for the candidate I agreed with and transfer to the best candidate.
    That's what I'd do.
  • https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1368526829506662400

    What would the head of Ofsted know? We've had enough of experts
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    kle4 said:

    Daily Mail in a right old froth of arseholery today (yeah, I know, plus ca change).

    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1368518270484160513?s=21

    She's hidden her marxism well.
    It’s hysterically poor understanding what Marxism is. The author of this is so laughably uneducated on what they are commenting on. 😂

    The Marxists are literally Young Hegelians. They were so bought in the mindset of Nation States from the liberal revolution of 1848 that their revolution was never going to get past bud and blossom to fruit.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    ClippP said:

    felix said:

    ClippP said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 46% (-3)
    No: 47% (+3)

    Excl. undecideds:
    Yes: 49% (-4)
    No: 51% (+4)

    via @Panelbase
    , 03 - 05 Mar
    Chgs. w/ Jan 2021

    This pol and the other one yesterday offer a great opportunity for Unionist parties to fight effectively agsinst the SNP. However, I doubt whether either the LDs or Labour have it in them to play their part of the bargain and vote Tory where they are the challengers. In failing they could well bring the Union down.
    Works both ways of course, in many places.
    That is my point - the Tories have shown willing at both party and voter level. Not so the other two.
    Of course. You have misunderstood the situation. We have it on the authority of HY no less, that the top priority for Conservatives is to defeat the SNP. It follows that Conservatives will vote for Lib Dem or Labour candidates if they have a good chance of defeating an SNP candidate.

    On the other hand, most normal Labour and Lib Dem voters strongly dislike the Tories, and even more so under the leadership of the present shower. There is nothing I want to see as much as Conservative candidates defeated. I could even be persuaded to consider voting SNP (were the conditions right), so much do I detest and despise the present government.
    Golly. How thick are you? Bye bye Union.
    If you are so set on the Union, your answer should surely be to stand down Conservative candidates everywhere.
    Wow - the answer is you are really, really thick.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835

    https://twitter.com/spectator/status/1368527953374642176

    Terrible idea. Kids don't learn more by being at school longer, just as people don't get more work done by being at work longer

    Any evidence for that?

    After school clubs and activities work well for those that do it.

    I don't think there's anything magical about the current length of the school day.
    The subject of length of lessons, breaks, and school day length has oceans of research.
    How come Williamson knows better?
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    ClippP said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 46% (-3)
    No: 47% (+3)

    Excl. undecideds:
    Yes: 49% (-4)
    No: 51% (+4)

    via @Panelbase
    , 03 - 05 Mar
    Chgs. w/ Jan 2021

    This pol and the other one yesterday offer a great opportunity for Unionist parties to fight effectively agsinst the SNP. However, I doubt whether either the LDs or Labour have it in them to play their part of the bargain and vote Tory where they are the challengers. In failing they could well bring the Union down.
    Works both ways of course, in many places.
    That is my point - the Tories have shown willing at both party and voter level. Not so the other two.
    Of course. You have misunderstood the situation. We have it on the authority of HY no less, that the top priority for Conservatives is to defeat the SNP. It follows that Conservatives will vote for Lib Dem or Labour candidates if they have a good chance of defeating an SNP candidate.

    On the other hand, most normal Labour and Lib Dem voters strongly dislike the Tories, and even more so under the leadership of the present shower. There is nothing I want to see as much as Conservative candidates defeated. I could even be persuaded to consider voting SNP (were the conditions right), so much do I detest and despise the present government.
    Golly. How thick are you? Bye bye Union.
    Unionist tactical voting is pointless
    https://twitter.com/bnhw_/status/1367864926954524681?s=20

    That is really stretching it , if the Tories great hopes are based on these two insignificant wards in Lanarkshire , where we saw a swing to SNP in reality.
    On today's Panelbase poll there is a 0.25% swing from SNP to Scottish Conservative on the constituency vote since 2016
    Much less than MOE then , that will surely make all the difference
    SNP seats like Edinburgh Pentlands, Perthshire South and Kinrossshire and Aberdeen South and North Kincardine had an SNP vote under 40% in 2016 and would fall with that swing and even the smallest Labour and LD tactical voting for the Conservatives
    Just for you HYFUD, given the numbers quoted are unweighted, here are the real numbers that will surely be confirmed soon. I wonder why they released unweighted numbers, very odd indeed.

    47% Yes
    42% No
    (Inc DK)

    53% Yes
    47% No
    (Excl DK)
    Whiffy.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1368521997957922817?s=21
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1368521999191056387?s=21

    Old faithful.

    https://twitter.com/hyufd1/status/1368522446106734592?s=21
    Irrespective of the poll you like and the one you do not, it is clear this last week has been a PR disaster for Sturgeon and the mood music is changing

    There is a lot more to come on this between now and May and the drip drip of incompetence and stitch ups are going to have a toll on both her and independence
    People should note SNP is not same as INDEPENDENCE
    I’m glad someone had said that.

    Why should the concept of Independence fluctuate so much based on the fortunes of SNP managing devolution well/badly? Fluctuate on a leader of SNP who has lost trust? It shouldn’t. Behind the polling it probably isn’t. When it comes down to campaign and vote on independence, it will boil down to pros and cons of the independence question for sure.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:
    Some Scots waking up to the fact the fact that the real nasty party is, and always has been, the SNP.
    Usual crap from you, back under your rock for another week or two please.
    Stop Press! A Nat uses the word please!! Well done, keep going to the lessons, perhaps you might even learn to be a decent human being. Your next challenge will be to stop being a hate filled purveyor of false history, and avoid starting sentences in your head with "I don't really hate the English but.."

    I guess it doesn't worry you at all that Nicola apologised to the women that who were “failed” by the botched probe? What does this mean? Either she is lying and we believe the women were lying conspirators or that Salmond was lying about them all lying? I guess it also doesn't bother you about the nationalist trolls and Charlie Kennedy?

    Nasty party indeed! Nationalism is a poisonous creed, and the Scottish version is one of the most hate filled. Many of your posts prove this. Go on, your little angry man, Little Scotlander response will no doubt prove me right.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    kle4 said:

    Anyway politics off the agenda for the media today as they go way over the top with the Sussex's interview

    Really who cares?

    People always ask that but it sells papers and gets enough attention that media feel they need to do it. The answer is lots of people.

    I wont bother to watch, but after such build up there better be something juicy out of it.
    I won't be watching it either but I feel sorry for them.

    The way they're being treated is like people who leave a cult getting shunned and ostracised by their own family.
    They are the ones behaving appallingly. I just hope they stay in America, period. They are a busted flush on the UK.

    Marrying an American never works.. there is history...
    Confirmation bias does an awful lot of work here: those who are already republican or unsympathetic to the royal family are inclined to take Harry and Meghan's side, and vice-versa.

    I've seen enough evidence to be fairly certain that (a) Meghan found it hard and wasn't prepared for the constraints and criticism that come with being a royal (b) she behaved with an exceptional sense of entitlement and treated many of her staff like a Hollywood diva, and her side doesn't deny that allegations of complaints exist (c) HMQ tried her best to find a solution that squared the circle, although she couldn't let them have their cake and eat it as that's not what being an active royal means or can mean (d) Harry has been torn and conflicted throughout but has sided with her as he genuinely loves her and much of the above played into his pre-existing fears and anxieties.

    It seems to be they should have taken the middle ground solution, respecting Harry's difficult position, his friends and family in the UK, the impact on the wider institution, the need to give Meghan the flexibility and profile she wanted, and the Royals should have done their best to close down nasty snides and attacks from parts of the media at the same time, but it all fell apart and they seem to have gone nuclear instead.

    Personally? I think Meghan has far more of her Dad in her than she'd care to admit.
    In a way I feel most sorry for Harry as he's had to change most, from a fairly unremarkable member of the Royals to a campaigner against the media bombarding his wife. I think he deserves a lot of credit.

    As for Meghan, I like her (and didn't like Diana, who seemed to want a cult of herself, though it's hard to assess fairly) but in any case I think the Palace staff are remarkably ill-advised to make it into a briefing contest with the media. If they merely said "The Sussexes are now pursuing their own course and we wish them every success" the story would die away quickly. It takes two to have a feud.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    https://twitter.com/spectator/status/1368527953374642176

    Terrible idea. Kids don't learn more by being at school longer, just as people don't get more work done by being at work longer

    They do if they're doing extra work during the extra time.

    Do you know anything about the real world ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,965
    edited March 2021
    Surprised the Mail haven't run with this story.

    Buckingham Palace to investigate claims that Meghan bullied Prince Andrew into having sex with teenage girls.

    https://newsthump.com/2021/03/04/buckingham-palace-to-investigate-claims-that-meghan-bullied-prince-andrew-into-having-sex-with-teenage-girls/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    gealbhan said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    ClippP said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 46% (-3)
    No: 47% (+3)

    Excl. undecideds:
    Yes: 49% (-4)
    No: 51% (+4)

    via @Panelbase
    , 03 - 05 Mar
    Chgs. w/ Jan 2021

    This pol and the other one yesterday offer a great opportunity for Unionist parties to fight effectively agsinst the SNP. However, I doubt whether either the LDs or Labour have it in them to play their part of the bargain and vote Tory where they are the challengers. In failing they could well bring the Union down.
    Works both ways of course, in many places.
    That is my point - the Tories have shown willing at both party and voter level. Not so the other two.
    Of course. You have misunderstood the situation. We have it on the authority of HY no less, that the top priority for Conservatives is to defeat the SNP. It follows that Conservatives will vote for Lib Dem or Labour candidates if they have a good chance of defeating an SNP candidate.

    On the other hand, most normal Labour and Lib Dem voters strongly dislike the Tories, and even more so under the leadership of the present shower. There is nothing I want to see as much as Conservative candidates defeated. I could even be persuaded to consider voting SNP (were the conditions right), so much do I detest and despise the present government.
    Golly. How thick are you? Bye bye Union.
    Unionist tactical voting is pointless
    https://twitter.com/bnhw_/status/1367864926954524681?s=20

    That is really stretching it , if the Tories great hopes are based on these two insignificant wards in Lanarkshire , where we saw a swing to SNP in reality.
    On today's Panelbase poll there is a 0.25% swing from SNP to Scottish Conservative on the constituency vote since 2016
    Much less than MOE then , that will surely make all the difference
    SNP seats like Edinburgh Pentlands, Perthshire South and Kinrossshire and Aberdeen South and North Kincardine had an SNP vote under 40% in 2016 and would fall with that swing and even the smallest Labour and LD tactical voting for the Conservatives
    Just for you HYFUD, given the numbers quoted are unweighted, here are the real numbers that will surely be confirmed soon. I wonder why they released unweighted numbers, very odd indeed.

    47% Yes
    42% No
    (Inc DK)

    53% Yes
    47% No
    (Excl DK)
    Whiffy.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1368521997957922817?s=21
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1368521999191056387?s=21

    Old faithful.

    https://twitter.com/hyufd1/status/1368522446106734592?s=21
    Irrespective of the poll you like and the one you do not, it is clear this last week has been a PR disaster for Sturgeon and the mood music is changing

    There is a lot more to come on this between now and May and the drip drip of incompetence and stitch ups are going to have a toll on both her and independence
    People should note SNP is not same as INDEPENDENCE
    I’m glad someone had said that.

    Why should the concept of Independence fluctuate so much based on the fortunes of SNP managing devolution well/badly? Fluctuate on a leader of SNP who has lost trust? It shouldn’t. Behind the polling it probably isn’t. When it comes down to campaign and vote on independence, it will boil down to pros and cons of the independence question for sure.
    Without an SNP majority there will be no indyref2 anyway, even one without Westminster consent
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2021

    https://twitter.com/spectator/status/1368527953374642176

    Terrible idea. Kids don't learn more by being at school longer, just as people don't get more work done by being at work longer

    Actually KIPP programme in the US showed it has, they have longer days, shorter holidays, has produced fantastic results for underprivileged kids, who I believe are ~90% from minority background.

    They aren't necessarily sitting in a classroom doing traditional lessons for longer, rather giving them a wider range of experiences and knowledge. They use the extra time to target extra help based on which areas kids are struggling and giving them access to sports / music / other activities they probably wouldn't get otherwise.

    It is based off academic research that has shown the longer holidays disadvantage already disadvantaged kids further.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,162
    GIN1138 said:

    Anyway politics off the agenda for the media today as they go way over the top with the Sussex's interview

    Really who cares?

    Hell hath no fury, like the Daily Mail scorned.

    It will make the Daily Mail as mad as hell. For that I would like to give the happy couple credit.
    My wife tells me today's Mail on Sunday has twelve (yes 12) pages on this stuff

    They have lost all reason and sense and join the Express as a non serious gossip rag

    Also I understand they have to publish a front page apology but no sign today
    I think they're appealing the court ruling?

    And I mean the media coverage today is a bit excessive but it's not every day the Queens grandson and granddaughter-in-law sits down with Oprah to throw the Royal Family under the bus... Media coverage/scrutiny was bound to intense...

    Which makes the decision to do the interview quite odd given H&M are always going on about how they want to be private in their mansion in LA! ;)
    Yes they should just sit back and let the ghouls of Buckingham Pally hurl turds at them. Turn the other cheek.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,342

    HYUFD said:

    New Panelbase poll has further bad news for Sturgeon with the SNP down 5% on the Scottish Parliament constituency vote and down 4% on the list vote and virtually unchanged on the 46.5% and 41% it got in 2016. Both the Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Labour are up 3% each and the Greens are also down.

    If true that means the SNP risks no majority at all in May

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1368372868569042945?s=20
    https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/1368477645034389507?s=20

    And polling could be even worse as more is revealed

    I do not expect Sturgeon is having a very happy weekend looking at the Scottish newspapers and polls
    They are welcome but I'm not sure the polls are bad enough yet for SNP + Greens to lose their majority.

    The future of the Union could really hinge on the maths of that.
    It's just possible now that Boris could be the lucky general again, and get a result in Scotland which allows him at the very least to say 'No clear mandate for a referendum' until after the next General Election - which is a bridge to cross as and when. That would be enough for now.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    Surprised the Mail haven't run with this story.

    Buckingham Palace to investigate claims that Meghan bullied Prince Andrew into having sex with teenage girls.

    https://newsthump.com/2021/03/04/buckingham-palace-to-investigate-claims-that-meghan-bullied-prince-andrew-into-having-sex-with-teenage-girls/

    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1368534318063230979
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    Yes. Time for the Tories to wake up from their wet dream. 🙂

    I think you will find the government won’t get any lasting credit for beating COVID, politicians are held in too low esteem for this to happen - like a reverse of the last financial crash, was it the banks responsibility (who should have been more risk adverse and diligent with customers deposits) or the the Labour Government? Extremely easy to stitch up politicians on watch for making calls and fail to give them credit because they are held in low esteem.

    Which brings us neatly to what destroys this Tory government. One thing that is true, and not arguable really, austerity 2.0 doesn’t run the same course as the first, 2.0 picks up where 1.0 left off. From the start everyone knows, when it comes to pain under a Tory government we won’t all be in it together.

    They have to do it, but no amount of leafleting or swish presentation will avoid blame for doing it.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    Thank you for lightening up my day.

    I had no idea UKIP was putting up a candidate called Peter Gammons. And his Twitter handle is @Gammons4London.

    Is this really true, or is it the funniest spoof in history?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited March 2021

    Surprised the Mail haven't run with this story.

    Buckingham Palace to investigate claims that Meghan bullied Prince Andrew into having sex with teenage girls.

    https://newsthump.com/2021/03/04/buckingham-palace-to-investigate-claims-that-meghan-bullied-prince-andrew-into-having-sex-with-teenage-girls/

    Anyone who thinks Meghan is the issue here is so bent out of shape that they don't realise how pathetic it looks to outsiders. Everything that is wrong with the Royals and their sycophants.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695

    Surprised the Mail haven't run with this story.

    Buckingham Palace to investigate claims that Meghan bullied Prince Andrew into having sex with teenage girls.

    https://newsthump.com/2021/03/04/buckingham-palace-to-investigate-claims-that-meghan-bullied-prince-andrew-into-having-sex-with-teenage-girls/

    LOL!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Surprised the Mail haven't run with this story.

    Buckingham Palace to investigate claims that Meghan bullied Prince Andrew into having sex with teenage girls.

    https://newsthump.com/2021/03/04/buckingham-palace-to-investigate-claims-that-meghan-bullied-prince-andrew-into-having-sex-with-teenage-girls/

    Anyone who thinks Meghan is the issue here is so bent out of shape that they don't realise how pathetic it looks to outsiders. Everything that is wrong with the Royals and their sycophants.
    Andrew is deeply unpopular with an approval rating of -73% but Meghan is not far off with a rating of -26%
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/entertainment/articles-reports/2020/10/28/royal-popularity-harry-and-meghan-drop
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    Surprised the Mail haven't run with this story.

    Buckingham Palace to investigate claims that Meghan bullied Prince Andrew into having sex with teenage girls.

    https://newsthump.com/2021/03/04/buckingham-palace-to-investigate-claims-that-meghan-bullied-prince-andrew-into-having-sex-with-teenage-girls/

    Anyone who thinks Meghan is the issue here is so bent out of shape that they don't realise how pathetic it looks to outsiders. Everything that is wrong with the Royals and their sycophants.
    Andrew is deeply unpopular with an approval rating of -73% but Meghan is not far off with a rating of -26%
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/entertainment/articles-reports/2020/10/28/royal-popularity-harry-and-meghan-drop
    So what?
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    HYUFD said:

    gealbhan said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    ClippP said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 46% (-3)
    No: 47% (+3)

    Excl. undecideds:
    Yes: 49% (-4)
    No: 51% (+4)

    via @Panelbase
    , 03 - 05 Mar
    Chgs. w/ Jan 2021

    This pol and the other one yesterday offer a great opportunity for Unionist parties to fight effectively agsinst the SNP. However, I doubt whether either the LDs or Labour have it in them to play their part of the bargain and vote Tory where they are the challengers. In failing they could well bring the Union down.
    Works both ways of course, in many places.
    That is my point - the Tories have shown willing at both party and voter level. Not so the other two.
    Of course. You have misunderstood the situation. We have it on the authority of HY no less, that the top priority for Conservatives is to defeat the SNP. It follows that Conservatives will vote for Lib Dem or Labour candidates if they have a good chance of defeating an SNP candidate.

    On the other hand, most normal Labour and Lib Dem voters strongly dislike the Tories, and even more so under the leadership of the present shower. There is nothing I want to see as much as Conservative candidates defeated. I could even be persuaded to consider voting SNP (were the conditions right), so much do I detest and despise the present government.
    Golly. How thick are you? Bye bye Union.
    Unionist tactical voting is pointless
    https://twitter.com/bnhw_/status/1367864926954524681?s=20

    That is really stretching it , if the Tories great hopes are based on these two insignificant wards in Lanarkshire , where we saw a swing to SNP in reality.
    On today's Panelbase poll there is a 0.25% swing from SNP to Scottish Conservative on the constituency vote since 2016
    Much less than MOE then , that will surely make all the difference
    SNP seats like Edinburgh Pentlands, Perthshire South and Kinrossshire and Aberdeen South and North Kincardine had an SNP vote under 40% in 2016 and would fall with that swing and even the smallest Labour and LD tactical voting for the Conservatives
    Just for you HYFUD, given the numbers quoted are unweighted, here are the real numbers that will surely be confirmed soon. I wonder why they released unweighted numbers, very odd indeed.

    47% Yes
    42% No
    (Inc DK)

    53% Yes
    47% No
    (Excl DK)
    Whiffy.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1368521997957922817?s=21
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1368521999191056387?s=21

    Old faithful.

    https://twitter.com/hyufd1/status/1368522446106734592?s=21
    Irrespective of the poll you like and the one you do not, it is clear this last week has been a PR disaster for Sturgeon and the mood music is changing

    There is a lot more to come on this between now and May and the drip drip of incompetence and stitch ups are going to have a toll on both her and independence
    People should note SNP is not same as INDEPENDENCE
    I’m glad someone had said that.

    Why should the concept of Independence fluctuate so much based on the fortunes of SNP managing devolution well/badly? Fluctuate on a leader of SNP who has lost trust? It shouldn’t. Behind the polling it probably isn’t. When it comes down to campaign and vote on independence, it will boil down to pros and cons of the independence question for sure.
    Without an SNP majority there will be no indyref2 anyway, even one without Westminster consent
    Yes. I concede that.

    But you concede as soon as one does happen, it’s voted on the pros and con’s of the question, any playing of the SNP party or leadership not the ball would if anything be counter productive?
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    Surprised the Mail haven't run with this story.

    Buckingham Palace to investigate claims that Meghan bullied Prince Andrew into having sex with teenage girls.

    https://newsthump.com/2021/03/04/buckingham-palace-to-investigate-claims-that-meghan-bullied-prince-andrew-into-having-sex-with-teenage-girls/

    Anyone who thinks Meghan is the issue here is so bent out of shape that they don't realise how pathetic it looks to outsiders. Everything that is wrong with the Royals and their sycophants.
    Why do you always take the wrong side in every debate and argument?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2021
    Why Summer Vacations Should Be Shorter

    A large body of evidence suggests that the 12-week hiatus can have a lasting negative impact on kids’ educational outcomes. “The Summer Slide” results in several lost months of reading and math skills, particularly among children who come from lower-income households. Children from affluent families experience similar declines in their math skills, though some research indicates that, thanks to their parents’ emphasis on summer reading, such students may actually make slight gains in their language-arts skills during the summer months. In other words, the 12-week vacation may exacerbate income-based inequality in school achievement.

    The research on the academic benefits of an extended school year is mixed and inconclusive, in part because so few schools use a longer calendar; according to the nonprofit National Center on Time and Learning, only 170 schools nationwide, most of them charters, use extended calendars. Charter schools such as those run by the Knowledge Is Power Program, or KIPP, often attribute some of their academic successes to their calendar, which at KIPP runs from 7:30 a.m. to 5 p.m. daily with extra schooling in the summer and on some Saturdays. KIPP students spend 600 more hours a year in school than children who attend traditional schools....

    A longer school year does not necessarily require traditional classroom programming. In June and July, schools could, say, provide in-depth music, art, and athletic classes with just an hour or two spent on academics. Instruction could be provided by volunteers, parents, or other members of the community. Schools could supplement their budgets with contributions from localities and parents. Attendance could be voluntary to provide flexibility for different family needs. These programs might even create income for a school district, if they attracted tuition-paying children from nearby communities.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2015/09/the-case-for-a-shorter-summer/403531/

    ------------

    KIPP schools provide a safe, structured, and nurturing environment with minimal distractions and more time for both academics and extracurriculars, so our students love school and maximize their learning.

    To gain this extra time, KIPP schools feature a longer school day (typically from 7:30am until 4:00pm), as well as summer school. This extra time allows KIPP schools to offer a strong academic program along with art, music and other extracurriculars as part of the school day.

    https://www.kipp.org/faq/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited March 2021
    19,531 welsh doses today
    11,640 1st
    7,891 2nd
    Points to 360k UK wide.
    Welsh-UK correlation is down to 0.477 though, so might be higher or lower.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:


    Where is all the new extra money going ?

    Mainly acknowledging reality and filling the £13 billion shortfall in already committed programs. There's a bit left over for a token effort in space and cyber.
    This seems to happen every 5 years.

    And then a new massive black hole emerges.

    We won't have anything left in 20 years.
    The MoD keeps doing massive vanity projects (Carriers, Vanguard/Trident) that hollow out every other capability.

    They are about to do it again with Tempest. The F-35B buy is going to be cut from 138 to 48 to (partially) pay for it.
    I saw one of those new aircraft carriers sail by in the fog last week, so hopefully they have at least manage to stop it leaking.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Lol - hands up who wants to pay another 16 billion in tax to give them the 12.5% rise they want?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,869
    malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    ClippP said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 46% (-3)
    No: 47% (+3)

    Excl. undecideds:
    Yes: 49% (-4)
    No: 51% (+4)

    via @Panelbase
    , 03 - 05 Mar
    Chgs. w/ Jan 2021

    This pol and the other one yesterday offer a great opportunity for Unionist parties to fight effectively agsinst the SNP. However, I doubt whether either the LDs or Labour have it in them to play their part of the bargain and vote Tory where they are the challengers. In failing they could well bring the Union down.
    Works both ways of course, in many places.
    That is my point - the Tories have shown willing at both party and voter level. Not so the other two.
    Of course. You have misunderstood the situation. We have it on the authority of HY no less, that the top priority for Conservatives is to defeat the SNP. It follows that Conservatives will vote for Lib Dem or Labour candidates if they have a good chance of defeating an SNP candidate.

    On the other hand, most normal Labour and Lib Dem voters strongly dislike the Tories, and even more so under the leadership of the present shower. There is nothing I want to see as much as Conservative candidates defeated. I could even be persuaded to consider voting SNP (were the conditions right), so much do I detest and despise the present government.
    Golly. How thick are you? Bye bye Union.
    Unionist tactical voting is pointless
    https://twitter.com/bnhw_/status/1367864926954524681?s=20

    That is really stretching it , if the Tories great hopes are based on these two insignificant wards in Lanarkshire , where we saw a swing to SNP in reality.



    Brie can be a problem. We have to make do with Perl Wen in these parts.

    "...make do ..." 😡😡🤬

    Perl Wen is absolutely delicious -- much, much nicer than Brie.

    It is sold at an enormous premium in fancy delicatessens in the East of England.

    Also, I'm very happy to shout out for Perl Las and Cenarth Brie. And Caws Cerwyn.

    There is absolutely no need to eat anything other than Welsh cheese.
    A lot of very delicious artisan cheeses made here in Scotland too. St Andrew's cheddar, Connage Aged Gouda, Elrick Goats cheese. Omnomnom.
    Mature Dunlop.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    gealbhan said:


    Yes. Time for the Tories to wake up from their wet dream. 🙂

    I think you will find the government won’t get any lasting credit for beating COVID, politicians are held in too low esteem for this to happen - like a reverse of the last financial crash, was it the banks responsibility (who should have been more risk adverse and diligent with customers deposits) or the the Labour Government? Extremely easy to stitch up politicians on watch for making calls and fail to give them credit because they are held in low esteem.

    Which brings us neatly to what destroys this Tory government. One thing that is true, and not arguable really, austerity 2.0 doesn’t run the same course as the first, 2.0 picks up where 1.0 left off. From the start everyone knows, when it comes to pain under a Tory government we won’t all be in it together.

    They have to do it, but no amount of leafleting or swish presentation will avoid blame for doing it.

    It could have been worse - they could have taken your advice and given our vaccines away to the EU for the sake of Christianity, or something.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    gealbhan said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    ClippP said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 46% (-3)
    No: 47% (+3)

    Excl. undecideds:
    Yes: 49% (-4)
    No: 51% (+4)

    via @Panelbase
    , 03 - 05 Mar
    Chgs. w/ Jan 2021

    This pol and the other one yesterday offer a great opportunity for Unionist parties to fight effectively agsinst the SNP. However, I doubt whether either the LDs or Labour have it in them to play their part of the bargain and vote Tory where they are the challengers. In failing they could well bring the Union down.
    Works both ways of course, in many places.
    That is my point - the Tories have shown willing at both party and voter level. Not so the other two.
    Of course. You have misunderstood the situation. We have it on the authority of HY no less, that the top priority for Conservatives is to defeat the SNP. It follows that Conservatives will vote for Lib Dem or Labour candidates if they have a good chance of defeating an SNP candidate.

    On the other hand, most normal Labour and Lib Dem voters strongly dislike the Tories, and even more so under the leadership of the present shower. There is nothing I want to see as much as Conservative candidates defeated. I could even be persuaded to consider voting SNP (were the conditions right), so much do I detest and despise the present government.
    Golly. How thick are you? Bye bye Union.
    Unionist tactical voting is pointless
    https://twitter.com/bnhw_/status/1367864926954524681?s=20

    That is really stretching it , if the Tories great hopes are based on these two insignificant wards in Lanarkshire , where we saw a swing to SNP in reality.
    On today's Panelbase poll there is a 0.25% swing from SNP to Scottish Conservative on the constituency vote since 2016
    Much less than MOE then , that will surely make all the difference
    SNP seats like Edinburgh Pentlands, Perthshire South and Kinrossshire and Aberdeen South and North Kincardine had an SNP vote under 40% in 2016 and would fall with that swing and even the smallest Labour and LD tactical voting for the Conservatives
    Just for you HYFUD, given the numbers quoted are unweighted, here are the real numbers that will surely be confirmed soon. I wonder why they released unweighted numbers, very odd indeed.

    47% Yes
    42% No
    (Inc DK)

    53% Yes
    47% No
    (Excl DK)
    Whiffy.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1368521997957922817?s=21
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1368521999191056387?s=21

    Old faithful.

    https://twitter.com/hyufd1/status/1368522446106734592?s=21
    Irrespective of the poll you like and the one you do not, it is clear this last week has been a PR disaster for Sturgeon and the mood music is changing

    There is a lot more to come on this between now and May and the drip drip of incompetence and stitch ups are going to have a toll on both her and independence
    People should note SNP is not same as INDEPENDENCE
    I’m glad someone had said that.

    Why should the concept of Independence fluctuate so much based on the fortunes of SNP managing devolution well/badly? Fluctuate on a leader of SNP who has lost trust? It shouldn’t. Behind the polling it probably isn’t. When it comes down to campaign and vote on independence, it will boil down to pros and cons of the independence question for sure.
    People are irrational. Some claim to have voted for Brexit because they didn't like Cameron's government.

    We cannot on the one hand have some people claim Boris Johnson as PM makes Sindy more likely where another PM would not, as many do, and also that what happens in terms of SNP leadership and thus the party's personal fortunes is irrelevant.

    Now, I don't think the impact will be major, and it may not be sustained since, as noted, the core arguments for and against are the same regardless. But individuals leading specific parties and how well those parties do does have at least some impact.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    Bojo to cabinet “we will lose this one, obviously, but we have to fight anyway. Go back to your constituency’s and prepare for defeat.”
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    Siri, can you me something more needle dicked than flying a small plane over Scotland's two largest cities with a banner saying "Resign Sturgeon" hanging off its arse?

    https://twitter.com/JimSpenceDundee/status/1368533306082533379?s=20
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    Endillion said:

    dixiedean said:

    Endillion said:



    Sadiq Khan is genuinely the best candidate on the list by miles, and I hate absolutely everything he stands for. For the first time in my life, I have no clue who to vote for.

    Haven't you rather answered your own question? You may not like that answer.

    He'd clearly make the best Mayor, in terms of how convincing he'd be at making statements, managing his office and fielding questions from the press and public. I'd just rather someone useless who's trying to do things I agree with/don't care about, than someone marginally competent (but basically only good at self-promotion) doing things I disagree with.
    Porritt is intelligent and capable, if light on age and experience.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    ClippP said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 46% (-3)
    No: 47% (+3)

    Excl. undecideds:
    Yes: 49% (-4)
    No: 51% (+4)

    via @Panelbase
    , 03 - 05 Mar
    Chgs. w/ Jan 2021

    This pol and the other one yesterday offer a great opportunity for Unionist parties to fight effectively agsinst the SNP. However, I doubt whether either the LDs or Labour have it in them to play their part of the bargain and vote Tory where they are the challengers. In failing they could well bring the Union down.
    Works both ways of course, in many places.
    That is my point - the Tories have shown willing at both party and voter level. Not so the other two.
    Of course. You have misunderstood the situation. We have it on the authority of HY no less, that the top priority for Conservatives is to defeat the SNP. It follows that Conservatives will vote for Lib Dem or Labour candidates if they have a good chance of defeating an SNP candidate.

    On the other hand, most normal Labour and Lib Dem voters strongly dislike the Tories, and even more so under the leadership of the present shower. There is nothing I want to see as much as Conservative candidates defeated. I could even be persuaded to consider voting SNP (were the conditions right), so much do I detest and despise the present government.
    Golly. How thick are you? Bye bye Union.
    Unionist tactical voting is pointless
    https://twitter.com/bnhw_/status/1367864926954524681?s=20

    That is really stretching it , if the Tories great hopes are based on these two insignificant wards in Lanarkshire , where we saw a swing to SNP in reality.
    Look, when I've been thirsting in the desert I'd grasp at any provision of water, even if it was in a toilet bowl!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    gealbhan said:

    Surprised the Mail haven't run with this story.

    Buckingham Palace to investigate claims that Meghan bullied Prince Andrew into having sex with teenage girls.

    https://newsthump.com/2021/03/04/buckingham-palace-to-investigate-claims-that-meghan-bullied-prince-andrew-into-having-sex-with-teenage-girls/

    Anyone who thinks Meghan is the issue here is so bent out of shape that they don't realise how pathetic it looks to outsiders. Everything that is wrong with the Royals and their sycophants.
    Why do you always take the wrong side in every debate and argument?
    Oh gee my sincere apologies for not hating that uppity black succubus. She should have known her place and fucked off never to be heard from again.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,869

    I had a look at the Twitter accounts of the more right-wing candidates who are trying to stand for Mayor. Fox is way out in front on followers.

    Laurence Fox 265,000 on Twitter, The Reclaim Party 44,100
    Shaun Bailey 76,600, Conservatives 511,600
    David Kurten, 62,800, Heritage Party 5262
    Brian Rose 19,700, @brianrose4mayor 1460, @LondonRealTV 166,000
    Peter Gammons 807, UKIP 202,500, @UKIPLondon 404
    Charlie Mullins 260

    Reform UK are on 220,100 follows as a party and have indicated they will stand a candidate, but haven't picked someone yet.

    I think all of them are lays on the current betting! Were there a bet possible on Fox vs. Rose vs. Kurten vs. Gammons, that might be interesting.

    Can you imagine the sort of government we would get if only twatters were able to vote?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Siri, can you me something more needle dicked than flying a small plane over Scotland's two largest cities with a banner saying "Resign Sturgeon" hanging off its arse?

    https://twitter.com/JimSpenceDundee/status/1368533306082533379?s=20

    Lol. It's going to be so amazing to watch Scotland bottle it again.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    Surprised the Mail haven't run with this story.

    Buckingham Palace to investigate claims that Meghan bullied Prince Andrew into having sex with teenage girls.

    https://newsthump.com/2021/03/04/buckingham-palace-to-investigate-claims-that-meghan-bullied-prince-andrew-into-having-sex-with-teenage-girls/

    Anyone who thinks Meghan is the issue here is so bent out of shape that they don't realise how pathetic it looks to outsiders. Everything that is wrong with the Royals and their sycophants.
    Andrew is deeply unpopular with an approval rating of -73% but Meghan is not far off with a rating of -26%
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/entertainment/articles-reports/2020/10/28/royal-popularity-harry-and-meghan-drop
    A 47% gap is not far off?

    Crikey, I mean the Monster Raving Loonies nearly won the 2019 general election as they only finished just 43%. behind the Tories.
    It isn't far off when you consider the Queen is on +71%, William on +65%, Charles on +24% and even Camilla is now on +1%
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    New Panelbase poll has further bad news for Sturgeon with the SNP down 5% on the Scottish Parliament constituency vote and down 4% on the list vote and virtually unchanged on the 46.5% and 41% it got in 2016. Both the Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Labour are up 3% each and the Greens are also down.

    If true that means the SNP risks no majority at all in May

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1368372868569042945?s=20
    https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/1368477645034389507?s=20

    And polling could be even worse as more is revealed

    I do not expect Sturgeon is having a very happy weekend looking at the Scottish newspapers and polls
    They are welcome but I'm not sure the polls are bad enough yet for SNP + Greens to lose their majority.

    The future of the Union could really hinge on the maths of that.
    It's just possible now that Boris could be the lucky general again, and get a result in Scotland which allows him at the very least to say 'No clear mandate for a referendum' until after the next General Election - which is a bridge to cross as and when. That would be enough for now.

    Schumer is apparently not moving forward on Puerto Rican statehood despite their referendum as it was not clear enough support (yes I know it is also more complicated than that), so easy to see Boris going for that.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    Lol - hands up who wants to pay another 16 billion in tax to give them the 12.5% rise they want?
    Cheque books out would be better.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    gealbhan said:


    Yes. Time for the Tories to wake up from their wet dream. 🙂

    I think you will find the government won’t get any lasting credit for beating COVID, politicians are held in too low esteem for this to happen - like a reverse of the last financial crash, was it the banks responsibility (who should have been more risk adverse and diligent with customers deposits) or the the Labour Government? Extremely easy to stitch up politicians on watch for making calls and fail to give them credit because they are held in low esteem.

    Which brings us neatly to what destroys this Tory government. One thing that is true, and not arguable really, austerity 2.0 doesn’t run the same course as the first, 2.0 picks up where 1.0 left off. From the start everyone knows, when it comes to pain under a Tory government we won’t all be in it together.

    They have to do it, but no amount of leafleting or swish presentation will avoid blame for doing it.

    Rishi’s “being honest with people” budget was stunningly dishonest in hiding the yawning financial gap inder a load of optimistic assumptions and even more optimistic (from the government’s view) hidden future budget cuts, whilst ducking all the big questions of future taxation and funding for health, education and social care.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2021
    In France, there's no escape from Covid vaccine sceptics. What would Pasteur think?

    While Britons have been giving their right and left arms for a Covid-19 vaccine, here in still-sceptical France, people are actually turning it down. And not just the Anglo-Swedish AstraZeneca jab, though it hasn’t helped that after being given such an unjustified bad press, this is the one being delivered to GPs.

    Disinformation, distrust and rumours that are downright bonkers have turned what should have been a fairly routine operation into an organisational nightmare. Doctors like mine who have been allocated just 10 doses of AstraZeneca a week – all of which have to be administered in a 48-hour time frame – are spending valuable time and energy trying to drum up just 10 willing patients.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/07/in-france-theres-no-escape-from-covid-vaccine-sceptics-what-would-pasteur-think
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287
    MaxPB said:

    Siri, can you me something more needle dicked than flying a small plane over Scotland's two largest cities with a banner saying "Resign Sturgeon" hanging off its arse?

    https://twitter.com/JimSpenceDundee/status/1368533306082533379?s=20

    Lol. It's going to be so amazing to watch Scotland bottle it again.
    Like the football team ...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    MaxPB said:

    Siri, can you me something more needle dicked than flying a small plane over Scotland's two largest cities with a banner saying "Resign Sturgeon" hanging off its arse?

    https://twitter.com/JimSpenceDundee/status/1368533306082533379?s=20

    Lol. It's going to be so amazing to watch Scotland bottle it again.
    Haven't you got the memo, BJ is not going to allow Scotland the chance to bottle it again, aka BJ bottling it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081

    HYUFD said:

    Surprised the Mail haven't run with this story.

    Buckingham Palace to investigate claims that Meghan bullied Prince Andrew into having sex with teenage girls.

    https://newsthump.com/2021/03/04/buckingham-palace-to-investigate-claims-that-meghan-bullied-prince-andrew-into-having-sex-with-teenage-girls/

    Anyone who thinks Meghan is the issue here is so bent out of shape that they don't realise how pathetic it looks to outsiders. Everything that is wrong with the Royals and their sycophants.
    Andrew is deeply unpopular with an approval rating of -73% but Meghan is not far off with a rating of -26%
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/entertainment/articles-reports/2020/10/28/royal-popularity-harry-and-meghan-drop
    A 47% gap is not far off?

    Crikey, I mean the Monster Raving Loonies nearly won the 2019 general election as they only finished just 43%. behind the Tories.
    Sometimes in HY’s post a difference of just a per cent or two is highly significant. His analysis depends mostly on his predetermined conclusion and only tangentially on the numbers!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,017
    Little snippet from the Sunday Times for those who think Meghan was just a victim:


  • isamisam Posts: 40,730

    I had a look at the Twitter accounts of the more right-wing candidates who are trying to stand for Mayor. Fox is way out in front on followers.

    Laurence Fox 265,000 on Twitter, The Reclaim Party 44,100
    Shaun Bailey 76,600, Conservatives 511,600
    David Kurten, 62,800, Heritage Party 5262
    Brian Rose 19,700, @brianrose4mayor 1460, @LondonRealTV 166,000
    Peter Gammons 807, UKIP 202,500, @UKIPLondon 404
    Charlie Mullins 260

    Reform UK are on 220,100 follows as a party and have indicated they will stand a candidate, but haven't picked someone yet.

    I think all of them are lays on the current betting! Were there a bet possible on Fox vs. Rose vs. Kurten vs. Gammons, that might be interesting.

    Farage should 100% stand as the Reform Candidate. He won't win but I'd be interested to see the % he got. London was 40% Leave after all, he might nick second and would rattle Khan. He is much more "one of the lads than" Laurence Fox, who comes across as a typical smart arse, luvvie Remainer in his manner
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,087
    IanB2 said:

    gealbhan said:


    Yes. Time for the Tories to wake up from their wet dream. 🙂

    I think you will find the government won’t get any lasting credit for beating COVID, politicians are held in too low esteem for this to happen - like a reverse of the last financial crash, was it the banks responsibility (who should have been more risk adverse and diligent with customers deposits) or the the Labour Government? Extremely easy to stitch up politicians on watch for making calls and fail to give them credit because they are held in low esteem.

    Which brings us neatly to what destroys this Tory government. One thing that is true, and not arguable really, austerity 2.0 doesn’t run the same course as the first, 2.0 picks up where 1.0 left off. From the start everyone knows, when it comes to pain under a Tory government we won’t all be in it together.

    They have to do it, but no amount of leafleting or swish presentation will avoid blame for doing it.

    Rishi’s “being honest with people” budget was stunningly dishonest in hiding the yawning financial gap inder a load of optimistic assumptions and even more optimistic (from the government’s view) hidden future budget cuts, whilst ducking all the big questions of future taxation and funding for health, education and social care.
    It's like that Yes, Prime Minister episode. If you're changing everything, play Bach or Elgar. If you're changing nothing, play Stravinsky. The less honest you are, the more you have to go on about being honest.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748

    kle4 said:

    Daily Mail in a right old froth of arseholery today (yeah, I know, plus ca change).

    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1368518270484160513?s=21

    She's hidden her marxism well.
    "They hide the training of marxist internationalism". This reminds me very much of their piece on Ralph Miliband, and by nudge-wink implication Ed Miliband, although this time without the antisemitic subtext as part of the whole sparkling package too.
    From Churchill writing in the 20s to current dumbos going on about cultural Marxism, the subtext of antisemitism is never far away from Karl Marx is under your bed takes.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Surprised the Mail haven't run with this story.

    Buckingham Palace to investigate claims that Meghan bullied Prince Andrew into having sex with teenage girls.

    https://newsthump.com/2021/03/04/buckingham-palace-to-investigate-claims-that-meghan-bullied-prince-andrew-into-having-sex-with-teenage-girls/

    Anyone who thinks Meghan is the issue here is so bent out of shape that they don't realise how pathetic it looks to outsiders. Everything that is wrong with the Royals and their sycophants.
    Andrew is deeply unpopular with an approval rating of -73% but Meghan is not far off with a rating of -26%
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/entertainment/articles-reports/2020/10/28/royal-popularity-harry-and-meghan-drop
    A 47% gap is not far off?

    Crikey, I mean the Monster Raving Loonies nearly won the 2019 general election as they only finished just 43%. behind the Tories.
    It isn't far off when you consider the Queen is on +71%, William on +65%, Charles on +24% and even Camilla is now on +1%
    Charles will be very pleased to hear that he’s not far off being as popular as the Queen, I’m sure.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,017

    Surprised the Mail haven't run with this story.

    Buckingham Palace to investigate claims that Meghan bullied Prince Andrew into having sex with teenage girls.

    https://newsthump.com/2021/03/04/buckingham-palace-to-investigate-claims-that-meghan-bullied-prince-andrew-into-having-sex-with-teenage-girls/

    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1368534318063230979
    That must have been when Harry hit rock bottom.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2021

    Surprised the Mail haven't run with this story.

    Buckingham Palace to investigate claims that Meghan bullied Prince Andrew into having sex with teenage girls.

    https://newsthump.com/2021/03/04/buckingham-palace-to-investigate-claims-that-meghan-bullied-prince-andrew-into-having-sex-with-teenage-girls/

    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1368534318063230979
    That must have been when Harry hit rock bottom.
    They already down another avenue....

    Why the roots of the EU’s vaccine catastrophe lie in Merkel’s shadowy past in Communist East Germany

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9334329/MARY-ELLEN-SYNON-EUs-vaccine-catastrophe-lie-Merkels-shadowy-past-Communist-East-Germany.html
  • isamisam Posts: 40,730

    Little snippet from the Sunday Times for those who think Meghan was just a victim:


    I posted it last night - my Girlfriend's ex next door neighbour knows a lot of staff at Buck House, and he more or less told her the content of that article about two and a half years ago. She told me at the time but I forgot
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    IanB2 said:

    gealbhan said:


    Yes. Time for the Tories to wake up from their wet dream. 🙂

    I think you will find the government won’t get any lasting credit for beating COVID, politicians are held in too low esteem for this to happen - like a reverse of the last financial crash, was it the banks responsibility (who should have been more risk adverse and diligent with customers deposits) or the the Labour Government? Extremely easy to stitch up politicians on watch for making calls and fail to give them credit because they are held in low esteem.

    Which brings us neatly to what destroys this Tory government. One thing that is true, and not arguable really, austerity 2.0 doesn’t run the same course as the first, 2.0 picks up where 1.0 left off. From the start everyone knows, when it comes to pain under a Tory government we won’t all be in it together.

    They have to do it, but no amount of leafleting or swish presentation will avoid blame for doing it.

    Rishi’s “being honest with people” budget was stunningly dishonest in hiding the yawning financial gap inder a load of optimistic assumptions and even more optimistic (from the government’s view) hidden future budget cuts, whilst ducking all the big questions of future taxation and funding for health, education and social care.
    Perhaps you would prefer if he'd been more honest and given the NHS a pay freeze ?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    Chris said:

    Thank you for lightening up my day.

    I had no idea UKIP was putting up a candidate called Peter Gammons. And his Twitter handle is @Gammons4London.

    Is this really true, or is it the funniest spoof in history?

    Well they did briefly have a Dick Braine as leader. Maybe they're a Dadaist collective?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:
    How many votes was he elected leader by?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,869

    HYUFD said:
    Some Scots waking up to the fact the fact that the real nasty party is, and always has been, the SNP.
    It is open door opportunity time for the other parties, thats for sure. The challenge for the other parties is that if they are campaigning on "the SNP are corrupt, vote for us", its a bit back to basics.

    This is especially an issue for the Tories. Davidson's imminent chicken run to the Lords makes it hard to attack on democracy grounds. As for attacking on corruption or competence grounds, again difficult to do considering the Westminster government's shenanigans.

    I can see turnout - lack of it - being the real change vs 2016.
    Douglas Ross will lead the Holyrood campaign to be fair, but from a cast iron large majority in little over a week a poll this morning gives the SNP a majority of 1 and it should be also noted from the polling the Greens are losing a few points

    Last week has opened the door to a different result in Holyrood than anyone thought before
    If the drop in the Greens support is genuine, does that mean a reduction in the desire for independence or a reaction building against wokeness?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited March 2021

    IanB2 said:

    gealbhan said:


    Yes. Time for the Tories to wake up from their wet dream. 🙂

    I think you will find the government won’t get any lasting credit for beating COVID, politicians are held in too low esteem for this to happen - like a reverse of the last financial crash, was it the banks responsibility (who should have been more risk adverse and diligent with customers deposits) or the the Labour Government? Extremely easy to stitch up politicians on watch for making calls and fail to give them credit because they are held in low esteem.

    Which brings us neatly to what destroys this Tory government. One thing that is true, and not arguable really, austerity 2.0 doesn’t run the same course as the first, 2.0 picks up where 1.0 left off. From the start everyone knows, when it comes to pain under a Tory government we won’t all be in it together.

    They have to do it, but no amount of leafleting or swish presentation will avoid blame for doing it.

    Rishi’s “being honest with people” budget was stunningly dishonest in hiding the yawning financial gap inder a load of optimistic assumptions and even more optimistic (from the government’s view) hidden future budget cuts, whilst ducking all the big questions of future taxation and funding for health, education and social care.
    It's like that Yes, Prime Minister episode. If you're changing everything, play Bach or Elgar. If you're changing nothing, play Stravinsky. The less honest you are, the more you have to go on about being honest.
    The public saw right through it though, by rating it the fairest Budget in over a decade. That showed Rishi what they thought of his honesty, all right! :wink:
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,084
    edited March 2021

    kle4 said:

    Daily Mail in a right old froth of arseholery today (yeah, I know, plus ca change).

    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1368518270484160513?s=21

    She's hidden her marxism well.
    "They hide the training of marxist internationalism". This reminds me very much of their piece on Ralph Miliband, and by nudge-wink implication Ed Miliband, although this time without the antisemitic subtext as part of the whole sparkling package too.
    Very Daily Mail, isn't it? Wrong conclusions built on a leaning tower of mainly false assumptions, wound up to be as sensationalist / sh*tstirring as possible, garnished with a pile of falsehoods, and an occasional nugget of factual truth to try and disarm the reader.

    Suspect that Merkel's dad's ability to travel East / West was because he was a Lutheran Clergyman who had come from the West in the 1950s. Interesting family, however - grandparent was a Senator in Free Danzig (ie Gdansk).

    To my eye, far from swallowing Marxist whatever, her experience in E. Germany seems to have significantly inured her against it. For which we can be grateful.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081

    I had a look at the Twitter accounts of the more right-wing candidates who are trying to stand for Mayor. Fox is way out in front on followers.

    Laurence Fox 265,000 on Twitter, The Reclaim Party 44,100
    Shaun Bailey 76,600, Conservatives 511,600
    David Kurten, 62,800, Heritage Party 5262
    Brian Rose 19,700, @brianrose4mayor 1460, @LondonRealTV 166,000
    Peter Gammons 807, UKIP 202,500, @UKIPLondon 404
    Charlie Mullins 260

    Reform UK are on 220,100 follows as a party and have indicated they will stand a candidate, but haven't picked someone yet.

    I think all of them are lays on the current betting! Were there a bet possible on Fox vs. Rose vs. Kurten vs. Gammons, that might be interesting.

    Can you imagine the sort of government we would get if only twatters were able to vote?
    It’s news that they are banned?
This discussion has been closed.