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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » You’ve got to drop to 89 on LAB’s target list to find a seat that Tories are betting favourites to retain
How I miss the commons seats spread betting markets. This is the first election for two decades where this form of betting has not operated. Here the number of seats the parties will get are traded like stocks and shares and the more you are right the more money you make.
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A political blog of some repute awaits ....
(I'm of the mind that had he stayed put in Scotland he would've faced an invasion once troops had been gathered, but at least a defensive one. He fell between two stools as they say).
I'm grateful for what I think is a compliment, albeit I don't know what a colocutor is.
The newspapers - while circulation continue to decline they are still read by a lot of people (and more so older people who are more likely to vote). Labour has made enemies of the press, particularly the Murdoch press. If there is any dirt on senior Labour figures expect this to come out during the campaign. To see the enduring power of the press, look at what they did the LDs after the Cleggasm.
Campaign finance - It's looking like Labour will cave into the Unions over finance reforms. Despite this Labour may have less money to fight the election due to the GMB etc cutting funding. Conversely all the talk of taxing bankers' bonuses should aid to the Tories fundraising drive.
Last time I ws on the Tory who won This time I'm on the LDs at 6/1 - which I think is a great price. It's now 2/1
Beware.
There are London Labour activists at UKPR who openly say they have almost no chance of winning Battersea.
But your point on betting Conservative at constituency level and Labour at overall level is sound.
As for your further comments re the '45, they sound very sensible. Hmm, London was plainly very worried about its northern ex-frontier if they were splurging good money on the first purpose built barracks in Britain at Berwick-upon-Tweed a decade or so AFTER the 1707 Union. They are still open to the public BTW under English Heritage - part of the astonishing military complex to be seen in, on and around that very underestimated town (even if the North British Railway rammed the East Coast line straight through the centre of the castle, with a curious result
http://openplaques.org/plaques/10798 - but that is getting out of temporal sequence!)
Much would depend on Chris Skidmore's performance as a MP, but he did win in 2010 with a 9.4% swing against Labour.
They support corportism, the alliance of big government and big business.
Now Farage can certainly be critcised on the free market issue but he sounds like he sympathises with the problems the average person faces.
Cameron, Clegg and Miliband though sound like they're on the side of the powerful who are ripping off and ordering about the average person - business power for Cameron, EU power for Clegg and statist power for Miliband.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDRiT1FSRTF2bjVYRThSTnRaNzFXMlE#gid=0
Broxtowe for some chance reason has taken up the second spot.
Eleven more to go for the "JackW Dozen". I'm looking to add two constituencies per month through April and the final three in May.
Broadly I'd like 2 in Wales, 3 in Scotland and 8 in England.
Neither xenophobia nor protectionism form part of UKIPs agenda. The idea is that we trade with the wider world rather than being trapped within a protectionist bloc that suffocates our free trade whilst allowing other countries within the bloc to dominate European trade by fixing the rules to prevent real competition.
We can always tell when the Tories start to get desperate when they throw around the old BNP-lite accusations.
Looking back http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/08/22/history-suggests-the-tories-will-see-their-share-of-the-vote-decline-in-2015-2/
than that Stark!
PS And how does fixing the guaranteed price for energy in the Nuclear Power contracts fit in your "free market deceptions" narrative? Tories in glass houses (especially ones that have suffered arson attacks from Clegg) really shouldn't throw stones.....
'Sounds like' being the operative words.
I doubt that privately educated, wealthy commodities trader Nigel feels the pain of 'ordinary' people, just like the other party leaders and politicians.
This government knows fck all about small business - the new pensions legislation is just the most recent example of piling on more costs and regulations.
As to 'large business' that's the most obsequious case of forelock tugging I've seen in years.
These days I would tend to advocate aspiring towards the "perfect market" as a better aspiration to have. Unlike the free market that doesn't either conveniently overlook government's perpetual intervention in markets or actually exclude their intervention.
Since I live in Surbiton, I am not in any position to comment. However, I will say Davey is safe and Labour will still probably double their votes.
It`s interesting to see in how many seats the Tories just scraped through last time.
But as the CammyCleggyMilly alternatives clearly don't give a toss about the 'ordinary person' Farage is shooting at an open goal.
And when Farage does his 'bloke in a pub' routine it looks genuine - contrast with the obvious condescending fakeness of the photostunts of CammyCleggyMilly.
He's certainly a great actor - all part of being a politician.
Isaid "I give up!" Because you were being so fussy, and said I'd leave you to decide the terms ... And now you've got worse!
You're not Mr Logic from viz are you?
Assuming there are three leader debates as there was last time, one on sky, one on the Beeb and one on itv, I'd like £100@9/4 thatFarage is one of the leaders debating on one of them...
just have it if you want or notif you don't, this isn't difficult!
If you're a millionaire frontbencher who has converted to warmism then it's easy to say a few hundred quid a year more to save the world is a bargain. But if you're a sceptic (or undecided) and are finding things a bit difficult an extra couple of hundred pounds on energy bills is very significant.
EdM and Cameron appear tortured by theirs.
The lack of self awareness amongst the closed minds is staggering
13 seats if swing <1%
17 seats if swing, >1% and <2%
17 seats if swing >2% and
11 seats if swing > 3% and <4%
10 seats if swing > 4% and < 4.66%
-----------------------
5 seats if swing > 4.66% and < 5%.
The 68th Labour target seat is High Peak, 55th from the Tories.
Finchley and Golders Green-90,Redcar-92,Redditch-102,Portsmouth North-114.
Labour might do well in the Reading seats due to high ethnic minority population.
Labour will do badly in the Kent marginals.
So, you're up for free trade, and free movement of people?
It is, I think, generally accepted that if that happened, the LibDems would be likely to switch, rather than struggle on in partnership with a defeated Tory party (in the same way, TBF, that it would have been hard for them to form a coalition with a defeated Labour party in 2010).
2%, 16 months from next Thursday.
Tick, tock...
It's still over a year until the electorate decide whether or not to let you back on the expenses gravy train.
Private education and wealth aren't a problem if you show you can understand public feeling. The problem Miliband, Clegg and Cameron have is that they don't know anything other than the Westminster bubble.
Combine that with their wealth, education etc and you've got the recipe for the public to consider them out of touch
But as you regard gravitas as so important perhaps you can tell us if Cameron showed any gravitas at the Mandela tribute ?
Or for that matter in a dozen fake photostunts ?
It was also long. Very, very long.
When it comes to other things, Cameron's shown some class. Look at the way he handled the Hillsborough inquiry findings, or the apology for Bloody Sunday.
John Redwood's blog - The past had its battles too
1979 saw the end of a Labour Gov't who had mucked up the economy. The swing from Lab to Cons was 5.2%.
2010 saw the end of a Labour Gov't who had mucked up the economy. The swing from Lab to Cons was 5%
1983 saw the swing trend continue, this despite the Cons having dipped after 1979 and Mrs T brought in her cuts. By the time of the 1983 election the swing from Lab to Cons was 4%, enough to give a landslide.
If in 2015 the Cons continue the same swing of 4% as in 1983 they will have a landslide.
There are some significant parallels, including an unelectable left-wing leader who opposes cuts. Perhaps the biggest difference is the share of the LibDems in 2010, the very thing which prevented the Cons majority. Mr Smithson is, in one sense, right to point to their importance. But as they fade in 2015 it would be a big mistake to over-estimate how much they now matter. Cameron has also failed to have a Falklands war to boost his ratings. However, those points aside the underlying trend is there.
Only a fool would describe the potential of a Conservative outright win as 'wishful thinking'.
In 2005, the left is "unsplit", with the Liberal Democrats down to a 'rump' 10% or so. The right, on the other hand, is split between UKIP and the Conservatives
But other than that, your analogy is spot on.
As for the right, they most certainly were NOT united until the Falklands War. Thatcher was massively disliked by the right and the left, and the rumblings of discontent against her, sometimes borne of misogyny, rumbled on until the fissures nearly ruptured the whole party.
And I think telling other people to ride a bike so that the roads are empty for those with chauffer driven limos was rather more politically damaging.
You are a genuine libertarian. And with the exception of my belief in open borders, you and I share most of our political beliefs.
The party that best suited your policies in 2010 was UKIP. I don't believe that is true in 2015. I believe that UKIP will increasingly walk the populist line advocated by some, and which you have consistently opposed. At some point you will need to choose between being a BOO Conservative (of whom there are many), or a liberal UKIPper (of whom there are increasingly few).
Funny that! I mean it's funny, and to the other parties a bit scary, that UKIP/Farage is today, 4th January 2014, the main talking point on this thread (and many, many, others) on PB.
A year ago, the very name UKIP would have brought smiles and sniggers from the vast majority of posters, here.
How times have changed!
After all, we had the Godfrey Bloom hilarity, perhaps the funniest moment of the political year.
I merely pointed out that Cameron lacks it as well.
I will agree that Cameron has a certain style when apologising.
Apologising for mistakes by others that is, he doesn't show the same interest in apologising for his own cockups.
And he has an unfortunate tendancy to obsequious grovelling to people he is insecure about. Hence embarrasments from 'junior partner in 1940' to the attempt to bomb Syria.
Three years into the 1979 government the Conservatives received a 40% vote at the local election. At the next general election they reached 42%.
Three years into the 2010 government the Conservatives received a 26% vote at the local elections. At the next general election they reached ...
So hands up all those who think that the Tories will lead Labour by 15 points in May 2015?
Nice to see some 'gravitas' on the thread.........
Well you're not going to change the characteristics that have made the Tories so beloved of the whole nation when they are so integral to their public image now are you?
I'm amazed that anybody would want to be a politician. They're criticised for not being one of us, and they're criticised when they do behave like the rest of us (even to the extent of being slated by idiots for crying at a funeral).
The serious issue is, as I mentioned, the status of the third party, or fourth if you think UKIP will continue to hold up under scrutiny. In 1979 they only polled 13%, in 2010 23%.
Do I think an outright Conservative win is possible? Yes. Might they continue a 4% swing from Labour? Absolutely.
http://tinyurl.com/owre5fv
As far as I know though at least Nige hasn't left any of his kids in the pub......
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=miliband+pint+beer&espv=210&es_sm=93&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=8EzIUtL0JomO7AbepoG4CQ&ved=0CAkQ_AUoAQ&biw=1680&bih=924
Are you taking bets on this Conservative landslide ?
Heath was, Macmillan, Eden, Attlee, Churchill all were. Chamberlain wasn't.
I think a lot of it is just the amount of scrutiny they're under now, they're worried about saying anything that could be twisted negatively or into a gaffe. So they stay obsessively on script, and that's never human.
Alongside that, of course plenty of politicians of the past were thought out of touch.
I'm not sure Farage has that touch. But then again, neither do the other leaders.
Sadly, I'm not sure that they make very good politicians, at least at the top level.
RAF Museum states he had tried to join up, but was directed into the Civil Service, became Director of Economics and Statistics at the Ministry of Fuel and Power 1943–44.
http://www.nationalcoldwarexhibition.org/the-cold-war/biographies/harold-wilson/
http://tinyurl.com/pn7f8u8
Frankly to labour the point seems rather puritanical really.