For men however, the pub is the focal point of social interaction and until pubs open, many of us remain remote and cut off from our friends. You see, we tend not to meet for coffee, or go clothes shopping together. We do not do Pilates in the park or hook up when we take the kids to the duck pond. We don’t Zoom for chats.
Instead, you can find us bonding in the nooks and crannies of Britain’s pubs, or standing at bars, clutching pints, talking rubbish. These are our rituals, enshrined in us by our fathers and their fathers before them.
I'd like to say I was amazed that this was not the focal point of press questions at Boris's press conference yesterday (since everything depends on that) but, sadly, I'm not.
Press questions are structured that way to prevent a focal point. Half a dozen correspondents have one slot each, with no follow-ups. We might have fared better under the old lobby system. It turns out the Prime Minister has no great interest in holding the Prime Minister to account.
The bitterness and bile from a few presumably Labour supporters on here is remarkable.
I think we all acknowledge that there have been some big mistakes in the way the UK handled this pandemic early on. But that we’re now one of the most successful countries on the planet with our vaccine rollout.
Will lefties never be happy with British success?
Two of the most vociferous naysayers are former Tories. Scott and Alastair Meeks. My bitterness and bile is as a former Labourite. I think it's fair to say my bitterness and bile has been addressed to Corbyn, Drakeford and Johnson's Government in equal measure. Corbyn and Drakeford criticisms seem fine on here, but don't mess with Boris.
Vaccine rollout on the Government's watch has been excellent, they are entitled, as the incumbent, to take credit for what goes well on their watch. Johnson's message yesterday was statesmanlike, even if the delivery was less so. There are many issues during the pandemic that haven't gone well. Government supporters appear ill prepared to accept any Governmental responsibility for this.
Anyway, I promised RobD I was gone, so with that I'm dust.
Scott, yes, but AM isn't a former Tory - he's a liberal technocratic centrist; a floating voter.
In that case I can only apologise unreservedly to @AlastairMeeks for the defamation.
The very, very fastest you could speed it up is 3 weeks. As you need 2 weeks to detect if there is a rise in cases and a week to plan the unlock.
But even that is breakneck fast as you might not be able to detect the rise in hospital admittance in two weeks.
I think the final step of June 21st is the one that is most likely to change, it could go either way too. If we don't see any massive rise in hospitalisations from the May unlock and the vaccine programme has reached a stage where all over 18s have been given at least one dose then I could see the June date being brought forwards by a couple of weeks.
Yes, the final step is the most cautious and the one that is much more possible to speed up. And, of course, the first step (all school back simultaneously) is the least cautious and most likely to cause delay.
That said, I see SAGE advise: "Relaxation of a significant number of restrictions over three months starting from the beginning of April could lead to hospital occupancy higher than the January peak whereas relaxation over nine months would result in a much smaller peak." That does sound as though the 3-month opening may be too fast.
I think that is just SAGE demonstrating their absurd approach to life rooted in extreme safetism.
The reality is that the *speed* of opening up makes no difference to the number of cases in the medium term. What matters is the total *extent* of opening up, and the size of the vaccinated population.
Obviously whilst the vaccine program is still rolling out, there may be some need for restrictions, but I don't know which alternative universe SAGE are in if they think the rollout will take 9 months more.
We will eventually end up in a "steady state" with most adults vaccinated, and no restrictions. This will lead to a certain level of cases, with which we will have to live.
Once we've vaccinated everyone, what on earth are SAGE planning on waiting for?
Covid is not like the flu.
But it might be that we will have to live with as many people dying of Covid as die of the flu each year. 28% of flu deaths are of those below 65yrs old.
No one wants any of these diseases and if you or your family get one, or, god forbid, die of one it is a tragedy. But we have to live around them.
In many ways novel influenzas are actually worse cf 1918-20.
Won't most of us have either been affected or have a parent or grandparent affected by a flu variety ? The reason this one is so bad, although not a 1918-20 flu disaster is the lack of ANY sort of inherited immunity.
As I don't hesitate to remind people I am an employment lawyer, not a scientist, but in my gentleman amateur status, while I don't know all the ins and outs but yes - there may be something in that. Kids who get this asymptomatically will probably not have to worry about getting Covid as a serious disease in the future (although they will be reinfected) as their immune systems will remember enough about it to fight it off. 10-12 years back they did some studies on nonagenarians who had survived Spanish Flu and found T-Cell responses to H1N1 90 years later.
There is some scientific speculation that the "Russian Flu" of 1890 was caused by a coronavirus but people on here who know far more than me say a flu strain remains most likely - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889–1890_pandemic#Coronavirus
I`m confused by Hancock`s answer this morning to a question posed by Nick Robinson.
Robinson asked when people could travel within the UK to see parents and grandparents again. Hancock said from 17 May. This is wrong I`m sure.
The current bubble arrangements allow for such visits already - and outside of bubbles the "Stay at home" message is dropped on 29 March and replaced with "minimise travel" .
So I don`t understand Hancock`s response. What`s the relevance of 17 May in this respect?
Most families won't qualify under the below "bubble" arrangements currently:
Who can make a support bubble Not everybody can form a support bubble. However, on 2 December the rules changed to widen eligibility for forming one.
You can form a support bubble with another household of any size if:
you live by yourself – even if carers visit you to provide support you are the only adult in your household who does not need continuous care as a result of a disability your household includes a child who is under the age of one or was under that age on 2 December 2020 your household includes a child with a disability who requires continuous care and is under the age of 5, or was under that age on 2 December 2020 you are aged 16 or 17 living with others of the same age and without any adults you are a single adult living with one or more children who are under the age of 18 or were under that age on 12 June 2020 You should not form a support bubble with a household that is part of another support bubble.
I think the bubble arrangements are likely either deliberately or accidentally misunderstood fairly widely though.
Ok, so you can bubble with a single grandparent living alone but not if both grandparents are living together.
But even outside of bubbles you can travel from 29 March UK wide.
I think Hancock must have been referring to non-bubble overnight stays - in which case 17 May would be correct. I think.
The reality is, if you meet up outside in a garden, that some of your group are going to go inside once or twice to visit the look for a wee. And, if it's really cold, they might slip inside the conservatory with a cardigan on for a spot of laptray lunch, with the windows open.
The Government I'm sure know this, and they just don't want prolonged or overnight stays, huddling under rugs on the sofa all evening, and people generally taking the piss.
I was intrigued that “saunas” will be allowed to open from mid May. A good chunk of policy makers are presumably pretty familiar with what really happens in there and still feel it’s less risky to open them than allow pubs to have unrestricted opening.
Is that saunas over 55C for more than 10 minutes ? That is one version of the Corona deactivation temperature.
Which Turkish baths do not meet. So don't go to the wrong type.
I read a sobering article that there have been serious pandemics roughly every three or four years over the last two decades (SARS, MERS, Swine Flu, Zika, Ebola - we have of course been living with AIDS for 40 years now) so the warning signs were there even before this kicked off..
It's not going to change while we have an obsession with eating partially charred bits of chopped up animal.
Indeed. Until we learn to cook them thoroughly, there will always be risks.
Have a good morning.
You can have my rare steak when you can prise it from my cold, dead hands.
There’s a really interesting post about variant panic and variant biology by Robert buried in the midnight oil. Might be worth a thread or at least a repost @rcs1000 ?
I`m confused by Hancock`s answer this morning to a question posed by Nick Robinson.
Robinson asked when people could travel within the UK to see parents and grandparents again. Hancock said from 17 May. This is wrong I`m sure.
The current bubble arrangements allow for such visits already - and outside of bubbles the "Stay at home" message is dropped on 29 March and replaced with "minimise travel" .
So I don`t understand Hancock`s response. What`s the relevance of 17 May in this respect?
Most families won't qualify under the below "bubble" arrangements currently:
Who can make a support bubble Not everybody can form a support bubble. However, on 2 December the rules changed to widen eligibility for forming one.
You can form a support bubble with another household of any size if:
you live by yourself – even if carers visit you to provide support you are the only adult in your household who does not need continuous care as a result of a disability your household includes a child who is under the age of one or was under that age on 2 December 2020 your household includes a child with a disability who requires continuous care and is under the age of 5, or was under that age on 2 December 2020 you are aged 16 or 17 living with others of the same age and without any adults you are a single adult living with one or more children who are under the age of 18 or were under that age on 12 June 2020 You should not form a support bubble with a household that is part of another support bubble.
I think the bubble arrangements are likely either deliberately or accidentally misunderstood fairly widely though.
Ok, so you can bubble with a single grandparent living alone but not if both grandparents are living together.
But even outside of bubbles you can travel from 29 March UK wide.
I think Hancock must have been referring to non-bubble overnight stays - in which case 17 May would be correct. I think.
The reality is, if you meet up outside in a garden, that some of your group are going to go inside once or twice to visit the look for a wee. And, if it's really cold, they might slip inside the conservatory with a cardigan on for a spot of laptray lunch, with the windows open.
The Government I'm sure know this, and they just don't want prolonged or overnight stays, huddling under rugs on the sofa all evening, and people generally taking the piss.
I was intrigued that “saunas” will be allowed to open from mid May. A good chunk of policy makers are presumably pretty familiar with what really happens in there and still feel it’s less risky to open them than allow pubs to have unrestricted opening.
Is that saunas over 55C for more than 10 minutes ? That is one version of the Corona deactivation temperature.
Which Turkish baths do not meet. So don't go to the wrong type.
That's steam room not a sauna I think. Saunas involve dry heat
I`m confused by Hancock`s answer this morning to a question posed by Nick Robinson.
Robinson asked when people could travel within the UK to see parents and grandparents again. Hancock said from 17 May. This is wrong I`m sure.
The current bubble arrangements allow for such visits already - and outside of bubbles the "Stay at home" message is dropped on 29 March and replaced with "minimise travel" .
So I don`t understand Hancock`s response. What`s the relevance of 17 May in this respect?
Most families won't qualify under the below "bubble" arrangements currently:
Who can make a support bubble Not everybody can form a support bubble. However, on 2 December the rules changed to widen eligibility for forming one.
You can form a support bubble with another household of any size if:
you live by yourself – even if carers visit you to provide support you are the only adult in your household who does not need continuous care as a result of a disability your household includes a child who is under the age of one or was under that age on 2 December 2020 your household includes a child with a disability who requires continuous care and is under the age of 5, or was under that age on 2 December 2020 you are aged 16 or 17 living with others of the same age and without any adults you are a single adult living with one or more children who are under the age of 18 or were under that age on 12 June 2020 You should not form a support bubble with a household that is part of another support bubble.
I think the bubble arrangements are likely either deliberately or accidentally misunderstood fairly widely though.
My parents completely misunderstand the bubble arrangements! They live together, as do I with my wife. My sister lives with her husband. My two nephews also have families. I went over 10 days ago (both now jabbed, as am I) and broke the law by stopping in for a chat. I mentioned this, to which my mother said 'but your in our bubble'... (That bubble also seems to include all the other relatives above...)
They have done their bit during the pandemic, but they certainly haven't kept to this latest one in any way, shape or form...
The very, very fastest you could speed it up is 3 weeks. As you need 2 weeks to detect if there is a rise in cases and a week to plan the unlock.
But even that is breakneck fast as you might not be able to detect the rise in hospital admittance in two weeks.
A rise in hospital admittance from what to what though.
A rise from 100 per day to 200 per day is nothing if there are millions of people vaccinated in the previous two weeks and to be so in the upcoming weeks.
I`m confused by Hancock`s answer this morning to a question posed by Nick Robinson.
Robinson asked when people could travel within the UK to see parents and grandparents again. Hancock said from 17 May. This is wrong I`m sure.
The current bubble arrangements allow for such visits already - and outside of bubbles the "Stay at home" message is dropped on 29 March and replaced with "minimise travel" .
So I don`t understand Hancock`s response. What`s the relevance of 17 May in this respect?
Most families won't qualify under the below "bubble" arrangements currently:
Who can make a support bubble Not everybody can form a support bubble. However, on 2 December the rules changed to widen eligibility for forming one.
You can form a support bubble with another household of any size if:
you live by yourself – even if carers visit you to provide support you are the only adult in your household who does not need continuous care as a result of a disability your household includes a child who is under the age of one or was under that age on 2 December 2020 your household includes a child with a disability who requires continuous care and is under the age of 5, or was under that age on 2 December 2020 you are aged 16 or 17 living with others of the same age and without any adults you are a single adult living with one or more children who are under the age of 18 or were under that age on 12 June 2020 You should not form a support bubble with a household that is part of another support bubble.
I think the bubble arrangements are likely either deliberately or accidentally misunderstood fairly widely though.
Ok, so you can bubble with a single grandparent living alone but not if both grandparents are living together.
But even outside of bubbles you can travel from 29 March UK wide.
I think Hancock must have been referring to non-bubble overnight stays - in which case 17 May would be correct. I think.
The reality is, if you meet up outside in a garden, that some of your group are going to go inside once or twice to visit the look for a wee. And, if it's really cold, they might slip inside the conservatory with a cardigan on for a spot of laptray lunch, with the windows open.
The Government I'm sure know this, and they just don't want prolonged or overnight stays, huddling under rugs on the sofa all evening, and people generally taking the piss.
So, you're saying it's ok to take a piss as long as you don't take the piss?
The very, very fastest you could speed it up is 3 weeks. As you need 2 weeks to detect if there is a rise in cases and a week to plan the unlock.
But even that is breakneck fast as you might not be able to detect the rise in hospital admittance in two weeks.
I think the final step of June 21st is the one that is most likely to change, it could go either way too. If we don't see any massive rise in hospitalisations from the May unlock and the vaccine programme has reached a stage where all over 18s have been given at least one dose then I could see the June date being brought forwards by a couple of weeks.
Yes, the final step is the most cautious and the one that is much more possible to speed up. And, of course, the first step (all school back simultaneously) is the least cautious and most likely to cause delay.
It is also a question of how fast the vaccination program goes.
One question that would have been useful would have been - "What are the targets for vaccination at each step?"
To get every single adult in the country vaccinated by June 21st would take 308K per day (first jabs only). That ignores the requirement for second jabs - that would be additional to the 308K
I`m confused by Hancock`s answer this morning to a question posed by Nick Robinson.
Robinson asked when people could travel within the UK to see parents and grandparents again. Hancock said from 17 May. This is wrong I`m sure.
The current bubble arrangements allow for such visits already - and outside of bubbles the "Stay at home" message is dropped on 29 March and replaced with "minimise travel" .
So I don`t understand Hancock`s response. What`s the relevance of 17 May in this respect?
Most families won't qualify under the below "bubble" arrangements currently:
Who can make a support bubble Not everybody can form a support bubble. However, on 2 December the rules changed to widen eligibility for forming one.
You can form a support bubble with another household of any size if:
you live by yourself – even if carers visit you to provide support you are the only adult in your household who does not need continuous care as a result of a disability your household includes a child who is under the age of one or was under that age on 2 December 2020 your household includes a child with a disability who requires continuous care and is under the age of 5, or was under that age on 2 December 2020 you are aged 16 or 17 living with others of the same age and without any adults you are a single adult living with one or more children who are under the age of 18 or were under that age on 12 June 2020 You should not form a support bubble with a household that is part of another support bubble.
I think the bubble arrangements are likely either deliberately or accidentally misunderstood fairly widely though.
Ok, so you can bubble with a single grandparent living alone but not if both grandparents are living together.
But even outside of bubbles you can travel from 29 March UK wide.
I think Hancock must have been referring to non-bubble overnight stays - in which case 17 May would be correct. I think.
The reality is, if you meet up outside in a garden, that some of your group are going to go inside once or twice to visit the look for a wee. And, if it's really cold, they might slip inside the conservatory with a cardigan on for a spot of laptray lunch, with the windows open.
The Government I'm sure know this, and they just don't want prolonged or overnight stays, huddling under rugs on the sofa all evening, and people generally taking the piss.
So, you're saying it's ok to take a piss as long as you don't take the piss?
Have you considered a career in Government Slogan Writing?
The bitterness and bile from a few presumably Labour supporters on here is remarkable.
I think we all acknowledge that there have been some big mistakes in the way the UK handled this pandemic early on. But that we’re now one of the most successful countries on the planet with our vaccine rollout.
Will lefties never be happy with British success?
ON the 28 day measure 120,756 people have died of Covid 33,517 of them died in January. That's over a quarter of the deaths of a year long pandemic in a single month. Last month.
That's not big mistakes in the way the UK handled this pandemic early on. That's an utter disgraceful fuckup and dereliction of duty right now.
Or a new mutation making the disease harder to contain, and only identified thanks to a world class effort and capacity in genetic sequencing. Germany have had over 50,000 deaths since October. I presume that is also 'an utter disgraceful fuckup and dereliction of duty right now'?
The bitterness and bile from a few presumably Labour supporters on here is remarkable.
I think we all acknowledge that there have been some big mistakes in the way the UK handled this pandemic early on. But that we’re now one of the most successful countries on the planet with our vaccine rollout.
Will lefties never be happy with British success?
ON the 28 day measure 120,756 people have died of Covid 33,517 of them died in January. That's over a quarter of the deaths of a year long pandemic in a single month. Last month.
That's not big mistakes in the way the UK handled this pandemic early on. That's an utter disgraceful fuckup and dereliction of duty right now.
It is early on from the evolution of Cockney Covid. That wasn't known to exist or what its consequences would be in October.
Prior to Cockney Covid evolving the UK (all 4 nations) were trending below the EU average. It then skyrocketed after Cockney Covid evolved - that is new and early on for that, it didn't exist before then.
When the facts change, that can change what happens.
On Starmer and farming, I cannot see him winning in truly rural areas, but it may well work in liminal areas. Remember that he comes from one such area himself, donkey sanctuary and all.
I think the flaw though is that there is little agricultural employment in such areas, and a lot of that is migrant labour, so fishing for votes in a very small pond.
He needs to think more Worcester Woman, the issues in rural areas and smaller urban areas are not just about farming.
This is bang on.
I live in Dorset. There simply isn't the level of rural employment that there used to be; or rather, not in the farming industry.
The same on the island.
And as for fishing, the Tories are very lucky there are so few of them, having shafted them utterly by delivering a Brexit that worsened their situation compared to being within the EU.
The very, very fastest you could speed it up is 3 weeks. As you need 2 weeks to detect if there is a rise in cases and a week to plan the unlock.
But even that is breakneck fast as you might not be able to detect the rise in hospital admittance in two weeks.
I think the final step of June 21st is the one that is most likely to change, it could go either way too. If we don't see any massive rise in hospitalisations from the May unlock and the vaccine programme has reached a stage where all over 18s have been given at least one dose then I could see the June date being brought forwards by a couple of weeks.
Yes, the final step is the most cautious and the one that is much more possible to speed up. And, of course, the first step (all school back simultaneously) is the least cautious and most likely to cause delay.
It is also a question of how fast the vaccination program goes.
One question that would have been useful would have been - "What are the targets for vaccination at each step?"
To get every single adult in the country vaccinated by June 21st would take 308K per day (first jabs only). That ignores the requirement for second jabs - that would be additional to the 308K
For both jabs for everyone, 761K per day.
Given it takes 21 days for vaccine to take effect, what would be the target to get first jabs to every adult (or 16+ if 16-17 are eligible for it) by 31 May? As then 31 May + 21 days = 21 June of course.
That said, I see SAGE advise: "Relaxation of a significant number of restrictions over three months starting from the beginning of April could lead to hospital occupancy higher than the January peak whereas relaxation over nine months would result in a much smaller peak." That does sound as though the 3-month opening may be too fast.
I think that is just SAGE demonstrating their absurd approach to life rooted in extreme safetism.
The reality is that the *speed* of opening up makes no difference to the number of cases in the medium term. What matters is the total *extent* of opening up, and the size of the vaccinated population.
Obviously whilst the vaccine program is still rolling out, there may be some need for restrictions, but I don't know which alternative universe SAGE are in if they think the rollout will take 9 months more.
We will eventually end up in a "steady state" with most adults vaccinated, and no restrictions. This will lead to a certain level of cases, with which we will have to live.
Once we've vaccinated everyone, what on earth are SAGE planning on waiting for?
Covid is not like the flu.
But it might be that we will have to live with as many people dying of Covid as die of the flu each year. 28% of flu deaths are of those below 65yrs old.
No one wants any of these diseases and if you or your family get one, or, god forbid, die of one it is a tragedy. But we have to live around them.
I think it's also important to remember that COVID and influenza will be competing for the same host bodies every winter so it's not a case of simply adding COVID deaths on as a lump sum annual figure of say 30k extra deaths per year. That 30k per year dying of COVID would have been susceptible to dying of the flu or other diseases.
As I said last night, I was quite reassured when Whitty said that we can't have a situation where we treat COVID deaths differently to any other death. Once we're in a place where COVID patients won't overwhelm the NHS we're going to have to learn to live with it by getting a booster shot once a year in September/October and then living as we normally would.
I would argue we are currently treating covid deaths as different to other deaths. Every year over half a million of us brits shuffles off the mortal coil. To get a sense of perspective it might help if daily total deaths were also given, not just covid. Or maybe stop obsessing over minutiae as we are at the moment.
I`m confused by Hancock`s answer this morning to a question posed by Nick Robinson.
Robinson asked when people could travel within the UK to see parents and grandparents again. Hancock said from 17 May. This is wrong I`m sure.
The current bubble arrangements allow for such visits already - and outside of bubbles the "Stay at home" message is dropped on 29 March and replaced with "minimise travel" .
So I don`t understand Hancock`s response. What`s the relevance of 17 May in this respect?
Most families won't qualify under the below "bubble" arrangements currently:
Who can make a support bubble Not everybody can form a support bubble. However, on 2 December the rules changed to widen eligibility for forming one.
You can form a support bubble with another household of any size if:
you live by yourself – even if carers visit you to provide support you are the only adult in your household who does not need continuous care as a result of a disability your household includes a child who is under the age of one or was under that age on 2 December 2020 your household includes a child with a disability who requires continuous care and is under the age of 5, or was under that age on 2 December 2020 you are aged 16 or 17 living with others of the same age and without any adults you are a single adult living with one or more children who are under the age of 18 or were under that age on 12 June 2020 You should not form a support bubble with a household that is part of another support bubble.
I think the bubble arrangements are likely either deliberately or accidentally misunderstood fairly widely though.
My parents completely misunderstand the bubble arrangements! They live together, as do I with my wife. My sister lives with her husband. My two nephews also have families. I went over 10 days ago (both now jabbed, as am I) and broke the law by stopping in for a chat. I mentioned this, to which my mother said 'but your in our bubble'... (That bubble also seems to include all the other relatives above...)
They have done their bit during the pandemic, but they certainly haven't kept to this latest one in any way, shape or form...
For many, "bubble" seems to include anyone that they know, who obviously aren't infected and who are hence excluded from restrictions that sensibly apply only to plague carriers who by definition are strangers.
The very, very fastest you could speed it up is 3 weeks. As you need 2 weeks to detect if there is a rise in cases and a week to plan the unlock.
But even that is breakneck fast as you might not be able to detect the rise in hospital admittance in two weeks.
I think the final step of June 21st is the one that is most likely to change, it could go either way too. If we don't see any massive rise in hospitalisations from the May unlock and the vaccine programme has reached a stage where all over 18s have been given at least one dose then I could see the June date being brought forwards by a couple of weeks.
Yes, the final step is the most cautious and the one that is much more possible to speed up. And, of course, the first step (all school back simultaneously) is the least cautious and most likely to cause delay.
It is also a question of how fast the vaccination program goes.
One question that would have been useful would have been - "What are the targets for vaccination at each step?"
To get every single adult in the country vaccinated by June 21st would take 308K per day (first jabs only). That ignores the requirement for second jabs - that would be additional to the 308K
For both jabs for everyone, 761K per day.
Given it takes 21 days for vaccine to take effect, what would be the target to get first jabs to every adult (or 16+ if 16-17 are eligible for it) by 31 May? As then 31 May + 21 days = 21 June of course.
375K for first jab 926K for complete
The later number suggests a reason for the Daily Hate story about wanting/planning for 1M per day, a little while back.
The very, very fastest you could speed it up is 3 weeks. As you need 2 weeks to detect if there is a rise in cases and a week to plan the unlock.
But even that is breakneck fast as you might not be able to detect the rise in hospital admittance in two weeks.
A rise in hospital admittance from what to what though.
A rise from 100 per day to 200 per day is nothing if there are millions of people vaccinated in the previous two weeks and to be so in the upcoming weeks.
Precisely.
If hospitalisations drop to near-zero there's no way its going to stick to five weeks, nor should it. And even sticking to five weeks would make it nigh on impossible to distringuish trends from noise if numbers are near-zero.
This is a case of under promising and over delivering. A timeline is set out, people will scream bloody murder if its delayed - but will be very happy to see it sped up. So be conservative now and speed up when its undeniably safe to do so later on.
I`m confused by Hancock`s answer this morning to a question posed by Nick Robinson.
Robinson asked when people could travel within the UK to see parents and grandparents again. Hancock said from 17 May. This is wrong I`m sure.
The current bubble arrangements allow for such visits already - and outside of bubbles the "Stay at home" message is dropped on 29 March and replaced with "minimise travel" .
So I don`t understand Hancock`s response. What`s the relevance of 17 May in this respect?
Most families won't qualify under the below "bubble" arrangements currently:
Who can make a support bubble Not everybody can form a support bubble. However, on 2 December the rules changed to widen eligibility for forming one.
You can form a support bubble with another household of any size if:
you live by yourself – even if carers visit you to provide support you are the only adult in your household who does not need continuous care as a result of a disability your household includes a child who is under the age of one or was under that age on 2 December 2020 your household includes a child with a disability who requires continuous care and is under the age of 5, or was under that age on 2 December 2020 you are aged 16 or 17 living with others of the same age and without any adults you are a single adult living with one or more children who are under the age of 18 or were under that age on 12 June 2020 You should not form a support bubble with a household that is part of another support bubble.
I think the bubble arrangements are likely either deliberately or accidentally misunderstood fairly widely though.
My parents completely misunderstand the bubble arrangements! They live together, as do I with my wife. My sister lives with her husband. My two nephews also have families. I went over 10 days ago (both now jabbed, as am I) and broke the law by stopping in for a chat. I mentioned this, to which my mother said 'but your in our bubble'... (That bubble also seems to include all the other relatives above...)
They have done their bit during the pandemic, but they certainly haven't kept to this latest one in any way, shape or form...
Mothers and mothers in law seem to have special dispensation re Bubbles. Frankly, given the pleasure that my father takes in the opportunities of lockdown - no family visits, no unexpected doorbell rings, no need to spend money in restaurants, I'm not massively surprised....
The very, very fastest you could speed it up is 3 weeks. As you need 2 weeks to detect if there is a rise in cases and a week to plan the unlock.
But even that is breakneck fast as you might not be able to detect the rise in hospital admittance in two weeks.
I think the final step of June 21st is the one that is most likely to change, it could go either way too. If we don't see any massive rise in hospitalisations from the May unlock and the vaccine programme has reached a stage where all over 18s have been given at least one dose then I could see the June date being brought forwards by a couple of weeks.
Yes, the final step is the most cautious and the one that is much more possible to speed up. And, of course, the first step (all school back simultaneously) is the least cautious and most likely to cause delay.
It is also a question of how fast the vaccination program goes.
One question that would have been useful would have been - "What are the targets for vaccination at each step?"
To get every single adult in the country vaccinated by June 21st would take 308K per day (first jabs only). That ignores the requirement for second jabs - that would be additional to the 308K
For both jabs for everyone, 761K per day.
Given it takes 21 days for vaccine to take effect, what would be the target to get first jabs to every adult (or 16+ if 16-17 are eligible for it) by 31 May? As then 31 May + 21 days = 21 June of course.
The very, very fastest you could speed it up is 3 weeks. As you need 2 weeks to detect if there is a rise in cases and a week to plan the unlock.
But even that is breakneck fast as you might not be able to detect the rise in hospital admittance in two weeks.
I think the final step of June 21st is the one that is most likely to change, it could go either way too. If we don't see any massive rise in hospitalisations from the May unlock and the vaccine programme has reached a stage where all over 18s have been given at least one dose then I could see the June date being brought forwards by a couple of weeks.
Yes, the final step is the most cautious and the one that is much more possible to speed up. And, of course, the first step (all school back simultaneously) is the least cautious and most likely to cause delay.
It is also a question of how fast the vaccination program goes.
One question that would have been useful would have been - "What are the targets for vaccination at each step?"
To get every single adult in the country vaccinated by June 21st would take 308K per day (first jabs only). That ignores the requirement for second jabs - that would be additional to the 308K
For both jabs for everyone, 761K per day.
Given it takes 21 days for vaccine to take effect, what would be the target to get first jabs to every adult (or 16+ if 16-17 are eligible for it) by 31 May? As then 31 May + 21 days = 21 June of course.
375K for first jab 926K for complete
The later number suggests a reason for the Daily Hate story about wanting/planning for 1M per day, a little while back.
But since 12 weeks gives best protection with AZN it makes no sense to do it complete by then does it? That would require first round completed 12 weeks before 31 May which seems impossible.
Getting the first to everyone makes good sense. I'm eager to just have my first +21 days, the second is meh can wait until its appropriate to do it.
Had a bit of a back and forth over vaccine passports this morning with a few colleagues over our Zoom coffee. Basically everyone is in favour of them, but that's not a surprise given that we're all 10/10 on the likely to get vaccinated scale.
Points to consider:
1. Rapid testing will increase the cost of doing business for industries that are already almost bankrupt, or if the cost is passed onto the punter then it adds £4-6 to the cost of a cinema ticket or theatre ticket. 2. People who have done COVID tests (myself included) will all say how awful they are and tbh, I'm in the camp that would just live without going to the cinema if doing a rapid test I have to pay for is the only way to get in, I'll stick with Netflix and buy a bigger TV. This was a fairly common view too. 3. For certain venues such as nightclubs they'd need to have a huge holding area where people could wait for 20 mins while their lateral flow test came back with a result, that takes up floor space and reduces drinking time for potential customers. 4. We're going to have vaccine passports for international travel anyway so it's not as if a completely new system will need to be made for it. 5. Ideally a system should operate with both options. Either you have a vaccine passport or you take a rapid test. The feeling was that as soon as those people have to do a rapid test they will go and download the app and live with it because the swabs are just awful.
This is an opportunity for the government IMO, they should make the domestic vaccine passport an option to all indoor businesses as I think it would really help build confidence among the public for indoor socialising without distancing or group size limits. I personally think it's the difference between cinemas and theatres going bankrupt and not.
The very, very fastest you could speed it up is 3 weeks. As you need 2 weeks to detect if there is a rise in cases and a week to plan the unlock.
But even that is breakneck fast as you might not be able to detect the rise in hospital admittance in two weeks.
I can't see it being speeded up.
There's no way.
The only way they can 'speed it up' is by using certain one-offs as 'test events'. There's provision in the package for that.
Indeed, that is what I now expect will happen to the England vs Scotland match in Euro 2021 on Friday 18 June. It will be deemed a test event for full reopening (which, awkwardly, is only three days hence).
The very, very fastest you could speed it up is 3 weeks. As you need 2 weeks to detect if there is a rise in cases and a week to plan the unlock.
But even that is breakneck fast as you might not be able to detect the rise in hospital admittance in two weeks.
I think the final step of June 21st is the one that is most likely to change, it could go either way too. If we don't see any massive rise in hospitalisations from the May unlock and the vaccine programme has reached a stage where all over 18s have been given at least one dose then I could see the June date being brought forwards by a couple of weeks.
Yes, the final step is the most cautious and the one that is much more possible to speed up. And, of course, the first step (all school back simultaneously) is the least cautious and most likely to cause delay.
It is also a question of how fast the vaccination program goes.
One question that would have been useful would have been - "What are the targets for vaccination at each step?"
To get every single adult in the country vaccinated by June 21st would take 308K per day (first jabs only). That ignores the requirement for second jabs - that would be additional to the 308K
For both jabs for everyone, 761K per day.
Given it takes 21 days for vaccine to take effect, what would be the target to get first jabs to every adult (or 16+ if 16-17 are eligible for it) by 31 May? As then 31 May + 21 days = 21 June of course.
375K for first jab 926K for complete
The later number suggests a reason for the Daily Hate story about wanting/planning for 1M per day, a little while back.
Morning all. Sunny day in North London. Sunny mood with the end of the domestic pandemic in sight. My July minibreak in Whitstable looks GO GO GO. Might add another one somewhere a little more exotic such as Torquay. More prosaically, a haircut is just round the corner, so is a round of golf, so is a few pints in a beer garden. All this on the assumption I get my vaccine. Until then, I consider myself grounded.
The roadmap looks ok to me. In particular allowing ample time between relaxations to check the impact on cases and hospitalizations. I agree with the big bang on schools, all back on the 8th March. That's a risk worth taking. Also the overall "one nation" approach to emerging from lockdown, no messing around with localism or tiers, all of that was way too "busy" and divisive.
Overall, my sense is they are going a bit too slowly, which is the place to be. The extremes have been dismissed. A semi-permanent twilight world of "government by scientists" in which we chase zero covid was never a realistic prospect but it's good to see it ruled out. Sorry Devi Sridhar. You've been great but I'm not with you here. Likewise, the notion of normality by Easter. I think that might have been possible but they're right not to chance it. Another spike in the hospitals and we go into reverse? Doesn't bear thinking about. So, sorry Desmond Swayne and sundry Tory backbenchers too. You haven't been great and this was no exception.
Had a bit of a back and forth over vaccine passports this morning with a few colleagues over our Zoom coffee. Basically everyone is in favour of them, but that's not a surprise given that we're all 10/10 on the likely to get vaccinated scale.
Points to consider:
1. Rapid testing will increase the cost of doing business for industries that are already almost bankrupt, or if the cost is passed onto the punter then it adds £4-6 to the cost of a cinema ticket or theatre ticket. 2. People who have done COVID tests (myself included) will all say how awful they are and tbh, I'm in the camp that would just live without going to the cinema if doing a rapid test I have to pay for is the only way to get in, I'll stick with Netflix and buy a bigger TV. This was a fairly common view too. 3. For certain venues such as nightclubs they'd need to have a huge holding area where people could wait for 20 mins while their lateral flow test came back with a result, that takes up floor space and reduces drinking time for potential customers. 4. We're going to have vaccine passports for international travel anyway so it's not as if a completely new system will need to be made for it. 5. Ideally a system should operate with both options. Either you have a vaccine passport or you take a rapid test. The feeling was that as soon as those people have to do a rapid test they will go and download the app and live with it because the swabs are just awful.
This is an opportunity for the government IMO, they should make the domestic vaccine passport an option to all indoor businesses as I think it would really help build confidence among the public for indoor socialising without distancing or group size limits. I personally think it's the difference between cinemas and theatres going bankrupt and not.
The timing issue is the one that gets me though. Surely you can't have 'passports' until everyones able to get a vaccine - and by the time everyone is the restrictions are already likely to be lifted aren't they?
I suppose if vaccinations are sped up so everyone can get a vaccine before 21 June then there'd be no reason not to do passports starting from 21 June unlocking.
I read a sobering article that there have been serious pandemics roughly every three or four years over the last two decades (SARS, MERS, Swine Flu, Zika, Ebola - we have of course been living with AIDS for 40 years now) so the warning signs were there even before this kicked off..
It's not going to change while we have an obsession with eating partially charred bits of chopped up animal.
If you mean that in the sense that it would 'change' because the next pandemic would sweep through the enfeebled vegetarian masses and kill everyone off immediately, you're probably right.
The bitterness and bile from a few presumably Labour supporters on here is remarkable.
I think we all acknowledge that there have been some big mistakes in the way the UK handled this pandemic early on. But that we’re now one of the most successful countries on the planet with our vaccine rollout.
Will lefties never be happy with British success?
ON the 28 day measure 120,756 people have died of Covid 33,517 of them died in January. That's over a quarter of the deaths of a year long pandemic in a single month. Last month.
That's not big mistakes in the way the UK handled this pandemic early on. That's an utter disgraceful fuckup and dereliction of duty right now.
It is early on from the evolution of Cockney Covid. That wasn't known to exist or what its consequences would be in October.
Prior to Cockney Covid evolving the UK (all 4 nations) were trending below the EU average. It then skyrocketed after Cockney Covid evolved - that is new and early on for that, it didn't exist before then.
When the facts change, that can change what happens.
You mean like having schools go back for a day before ordering a lockdown?
Deaths per week doubled twice in September
Deaths per week doubled twice again in October.
October is *checks notes* 3 months before January.
The very, very fastest you could speed it up is 3 weeks. As you need 2 weeks to detect if there is a rise in cases and a week to plan the unlock.
But even that is breakneck fast as you might not be able to detect the rise in hospital admittance in two weeks.
I think the final step of June 21st is the one that is most likely to change, it could go either way too. If we don't see any massive rise in hospitalisations from the May unlock and the vaccine programme has reached a stage where all over 18s have been given at least one dose then I could see the June date being brought forwards by a couple of weeks.
Yes, the final step is the most cautious and the one that is much more possible to speed up. And, of course, the first step (all school back simultaneously) is the least cautious and most likely to cause delay.
It is also a question of how fast the vaccination program goes.
One question that would have been useful would have been - "What are the targets for vaccination at each step?"
To get every single adult in the country vaccinated by June 21st would take 308K per day (first jabs only). That ignores the requirement for second jabs - that would be additional to the 308K
For both jabs for everyone, 761K per day.
Given it takes 21 days for vaccine to take effect, what would be the target to get first jabs to every adult (or 16+ if 16-17 are eligible for it) by 31 May? As then 31 May + 21 days = 21 June of course.
375K for first jab 926K for complete
The later number suggests a reason for the Daily Hate story about wanting/planning for 1M per day, a little while back.
926,000 - what's your workings for that ?
ONS 2019 - 54,098,971 over 16s
Current state of play First dose: 17,723,840 Second dose: 624,325
so
First remaining : 36,375,131 Second remaining: 53,474,646
The bitterness and bile from a few presumably Labour supporters on here is remarkable.
I think we all acknowledge that there have been some big mistakes in the way the UK handled this pandemic early on. But that we’re now one of the most successful countries on the planet with our vaccine rollout.
Will lefties never be happy with British success?
ON the 28 day measure 120,756 people have died of Covid 33,517 of them died in January. That's over a quarter of the deaths of a year long pandemic in a single month. Last month.
That's not big mistakes in the way the UK handled this pandemic early on. That's an utter disgraceful fuckup and dereliction of duty right now.
It is early on from the evolution of Cockney Covid. That wasn't known to exist or what its consequences would be in October.
Prior to Cockney Covid evolving the UK (all 4 nations) were trending below the EU average. It then skyrocketed after Cockney Covid evolved - that is new and early on for that, it didn't exist before then.
When the facts change, that can change what happens.
You mean like having schools go back for a day before ordering a lockdown?
Deaths per week doubled twice in September
Deaths per week doubled twice again in October.
October is *checks notes* 3 months before January.
Yes and Tiers and a lockdown were introduced before January. Cases were going down in Tier 3 regions before January.
Cockney Covid changed all that. It wasn't known about in September or October.
The bitterness and bile from a few presumably Labour supporters on here is remarkable.
I think we all acknowledge that there have been some big mistakes in the way the UK handled this pandemic early on. But that we’re now one of the most successful countries on the planet with our vaccine rollout.
Will lefties never be happy with British success?
ON the 28 day measure 120,756 people have died of Covid 33,517 of them died in January. That's over a quarter of the deaths of a year long pandemic in a single month. Last month.
That's not big mistakes in the way the UK handled this pandemic early on. That's an utter disgraceful fuckup and dereliction of duty right now.
Or a new mutation making the disease harder to contain, and only identified thanks to a world class effort and capacity in genetic sequencing. Germany have had over 50,000 deaths since October. I presume that is also 'an utter disgraceful fuckup and dereliction of duty right now'?
Had a bit of a back and forth over vaccine passports this morning with a few colleagues over our Zoom coffee. Basically everyone is in favour of them, but that's not a surprise given that we're all 10/10 on the likely to get vaccinated scale.
Points to consider:
1. Rapid testing will increase the cost of doing business for industries that are already almost bankrupt, or if the cost is passed onto the punter then it adds £4-6 to the cost of a cinema ticket or theatre ticket. 2. People who have done COVID tests (myself included) will all say how awful they are and tbh, I'm in the camp that would just live without going to the cinema if doing a rapid test I have to pay for is the only way to get in, I'll stick with Netflix and buy a bigger TV. This was a fairly common view too. 3. For certain venues such as nightclubs they'd need to have a huge holding area where people could wait for 20 mins while their lateral flow test came back with a result, that takes up floor space and reduces drinking time for potential customers. 4. We're going to have vaccine passports for international travel anyway so it's not as if a completely new system will need to be made for it. 5. Ideally a system should operate with both options. Either you have a vaccine passport or you take a rapid test. The feeling was that as soon as those people have to do a rapid test they will go and download the app and live with it because the swabs are just awful.
This is an opportunity for the government IMO, they should make the domestic vaccine passport an option to all indoor businesses as I think it would really help build confidence among the public for indoor socialising without distancing or group size limits. I personally think it's the difference between cinemas and theatres going bankrupt and not.
The timing issue is the one that gets me though. Surely you can't have 'passports' until everyones able to get a vaccine - and by the time everyone is the restrictions are already likely to be lifted aren't they?
I suppose if vaccinations are sped up so everyone can get a vaccine before 21 June then there'd be no reason not to do passports starting from 21 June unlocking.
Well, 3 weeks after that to allow the vaccines a chance...
Had a bit of a back and forth over vaccine passports this morning with a few colleagues over our Zoom coffee. Basically everyone is in favour of them, but that's not a surprise given that we're all 10/10 on the likely to get vaccinated scale.
Points to consider:
1. Rapid testing will increase the cost of doing business for industries that are already almost bankrupt, or if the cost is passed onto the punter then it adds £4-6 to the cost of a cinema ticket or theatre ticket. 2. People who have done COVID tests (myself included) will all say how awful they are and tbh, I'm in the camp that would just live without going to the cinema if doing a rapid test I have to pay for is the only way to get in, I'll stick with Netflix and buy a bigger TV. This was a fairly common view too. 3. For certain venues such as nightclubs they'd need to have a huge holding area where people could wait for 20 mins while their lateral flow test came back with a result, that takes up floor space and reduces drinking time for potential customers. 4. We're going to have vaccine passports for international travel anyway so it's not as if a completely new system will need to be made for it. 5. Ideally a system should operate with both options. Either you have a vaccine passport or you take a rapid test. The feeling was that as soon as those people have to do a rapid test they will go and download the app and live with it because the swabs are just awful.
This is an opportunity for the government IMO, they should make the domestic vaccine passport an option to all indoor businesses as I think it would really help build confidence among the public for indoor socialising without distancing or group size limits. I personally think it's the difference between cinemas and theatres going bankrupt and not.
The timing issue is the one that gets me though. Surely you can't have 'passports' until everyones able to get a vaccine - and by the time everyone is the restrictions are already likely to be lifted aren't they?
I suppose if vaccinations are sped up so everyone can get a vaccine before 21 June then there'd be no reason not to do passports starting from 21 June unlocking.
Yes, I actually think that's part of the thinking for the June unlock date being so far away. It gives the government a lot of time and a lot of vaccine supply to get everyone their first jab and ~90% reduction in hospitalisations from COVID for the whole adult population and 99% for the top 9 groups who will all have had their second doses by then.
We should be in a position where people can simply queue up for their first vaccine dose by June 21st so those who have previously refused are able to then go and get one realising that it's a choice between paying for a rapid test to go to the pub or getting a free vaccine and a free passport app.
The bitterness and bile from a few presumably Labour supporters on here is remarkable.
I think we all acknowledge that there have been some big mistakes in the way the UK handled this pandemic early on. But that we’re now one of the most successful countries on the planet with our vaccine rollout.
Will lefties never be happy with British success?
ON the 28 day measure 120,756 people have died of Covid 33,517 of them died in January. That's over a quarter of the deaths of a year long pandemic in a single month. Last month.
That's not big mistakes in the way the UK handled this pandemic early on. That's an utter disgraceful fuckup and dereliction of duty right now.
Or a new mutation making the disease harder to contain, and only identified thanks to a world class effort and capacity in genetic sequencing. Germany have had over 50,000 deaths since October. I presume that is also 'an utter disgraceful fuckup and dereliction of duty right now'?
Had a bit of a back and forth over vaccine passports this morning with a few colleagues over our Zoom coffee. Basically everyone is in favour of them, but that's not a surprise given that we're all 10/10 on the likely to get vaccinated scale.
Points to consider:
1. Rapid testing will increase the cost of doing business for industries that are already almost bankrupt, or if the cost is passed onto the punter then it adds £4-6 to the cost of a cinema ticket or theatre ticket. 2. People who have done COVID tests (myself included) will all say how awful they are and tbh, I'm in the camp that would just live without going to the cinema if doing a rapid test I have to pay for is the only way to get in, I'll stick with Netflix and buy a bigger TV. This was a fairly common view too. 3. For certain venues such as nightclubs they'd need to have a huge holding area where people could wait for 20 mins while their lateral flow test came back with a result, that takes up floor space and reduces drinking time for potential customers. 4. We're going to have vaccine passports for international travel anyway so it's not as if a completely new system will need to be made for it. 5. Ideally a system should operate with both options. Either you have a vaccine passport or you take a rapid test. The feeling was that as soon as those people have to do a rapid test they will go and download the app and live with it because the swabs are just awful.
This is an opportunity for the government IMO, they should make the domestic vaccine passport an option to all indoor businesses as I think it would really help build confidence among the public for indoor socialising without distancing or group size limits. I personally think it's the difference between cinemas and theatres going bankrupt and not.
The timing issue is the one that gets me though. Surely you can't have 'passports' until everyones able to get a vaccine - and by the time everyone is the restrictions are already likely to be lifted aren't they?
I suppose if vaccinations are sped up so everyone can get a vaccine before 21 June then there'd be no reason not to do passports starting from 21 June unlocking.
Yes, I actually think that's part of the thinking for the June unlock date being so far away. It gives the government a lot of time and a lot of vaccine supply to get everyone their first jab and ~90% reduction in hospitalisations from COVID for the whole adult population and 99% for the top 9 groups who will all have had their second doses by then.
We should be in a position where people can simply queue up for their first vaccine dose by June 21st so those who have previously refused are able to then go and get one realising that it's a choice between paying for a rapid test to go to the pub or getting a free vaccine and a free passport app.
Sounds like a good plan.
Better than the crazy idea some wanted of allowing vaccinated oldies to be free while the young would be imprisoned at home. So long as everyone's got an equal opportunity its entirely reasonable. 👍
Morning all. Sunny day in North London. Sunny mood with the end of the domestic pandemic in sight. My July minibreak in Whitstable looks GO GO GO. Might add another one somewhere a little more exotic such as Torquay. More prosaically, a haircut is just round the corner, so is a round of golf, so is a few pints in a beer garden. All this on the assumption I get my vaccine. Until then, I consider myself grounded.
The roadmap looks ok to me. In particular allowing ample time between relaxations to check the impact on cases and hospitalizations. I agree with the big bang on schools, all back on the 8th March. That's a risk worth taking. Also the overall "one nation" approach to emerging from lockdown, no messing around with localism or tiers, all of that was way too "busy" and divisive.
Overall, my sense is they are going a bit too slowly, which is the place to be. The extremes have been dismissed. A semi-permanent twilight world of "government by scientists" in which we chase zero covid was never a realistic prospect but it's good to see it ruled out. Sorry Devi Sridhar. You've been great but I'm not with you here. Likewise, the notion of normality by Easter. I think that might have been possible but they're right not to chance it. Another spike in the hospitals and we go into reverse? Doesn't bear thinking about. So, sorry Desmond Swayne and sundry Tory backbenchers too. You haven't been great and this was no exception.
Hope you enjoy Whitstable. You might want to imagine a teenage Mr Seal drinking cheap cider with his friends on the beach near The Neptune before Whiststable got posh. Then again you might not. A squat I used to go to parties at in Middle Wall recently sold for £650,000.
On Starmer and farming, I cannot see him winning in truly rural areas, but it may well work in liminal areas. Remember that he comes from one such area himself, donkey sanctuary and all.
I think the flaw though is that there is little agricultural employment in such areas, and a lot of that is migrant labour, so fishing for votes in a very small pond.
He needs to think more Worcester Woman, the issues in rural areas and smaller urban areas are not just about farming.
This is bang on.
I live in Dorset. There simply isn't the level of rural employment that there used to be; or rather, not in the farming industry.
The same on the island.
And as for fishing, the Tories are very lucky there are so few of them, having shafted them utterly by delivering a Brexit that worsened their situation compared to being within the EU.
As was clearly pointed out on BBCTV2 last night. The disappointment was cruel.
The very, very fastest you could speed it up is 3 weeks. As you need 2 weeks to detect if there is a rise in cases and a week to plan the unlock.
But even that is breakneck fast as you might not be able to detect the rise in hospital admittance in two weeks.
I think the final step of June 21st is the one that is most likely to change, it could go either way too. If we don't see any massive rise in hospitalisations from the May unlock and the vaccine programme has reached a stage where all over 18s have been given at least one dose then I could see the June date being brought forwards by a couple of weeks.
Yes, the final step is the most cautious and the one that is much more possible to speed up. And, of course, the first step (all school back simultaneously) is the least cautious and most likely to cause delay.
It is also a question of how fast the vaccination program goes.
One question that would have been useful would have been - "What are the targets for vaccination at each step?"
To get every single adult in the country vaccinated by June 21st would take 308K per day (first jabs only). That ignores the requirement for second jabs - that would be additional to the 308K
For both jabs for everyone, 761K per day.
Given it takes 21 days for vaccine to take effect, what would be the target to get first jabs to every adult (or 16+ if 16-17 are eligible for it) by 31 May? As then 31 May + 21 days = 21 June of course.
375K for first jab 926K for complete
The later number suggests a reason for the Daily Hate story about wanting/planning for 1M per day, a little while back.
926,000 - what's your workings for that ?
ONS 2019 - 54,098,971 over 16s
Current state of play First dose: 17,723,840 Second dose: 624,325
so
First remaining : 36,375,131 Second remaining: 53,474,646
End of May - 97 days 21st June - 118 days
First remaining is likely lower, uptake won't be 100%. Call it 50 million - I think in reality it will be a little lower. & 17.1 million + the next 15 days total need to be done as second jabs before the end of May
So we have 50m - 17.7m first jabs = 32.3 million and 17.1 million second jabs + 15 days worth of first jabs (350k say) ~= 55 million jabs in 98 days =~ 560k/day.
All adults by 31st May (First jab) does actually look more doable than I'd first thought...
The bitterness and bile from a few presumably Labour supporters on here is remarkable.
I think we all acknowledge that there have been some big mistakes in the way the UK handled this pandemic early on. But that we’re now one of the most successful countries on the planet with our vaccine rollout.
Will lefties never be happy with British success?
ON the 28 day measure 120,756 people have died of Covid 33,517 of them died in January. That's over a quarter of the deaths of a year long pandemic in a single month. Last month.
That's not big mistakes in the way the UK handled this pandemic early on. That's an utter disgraceful fuckup and dereliction of duty right now.
Or a new mutation making the disease harder to contain, and only identified thanks to a world class effort and capacity in genetic sequencing. Germany have had over 50,000 deaths since October. I presume that is also 'an utter disgraceful fuckup and dereliction of duty right now'?
The very, very fastest you could speed it up is 3 weeks. As you need 2 weeks to detect if there is a rise in cases and a week to plan the unlock.
But even that is breakneck fast as you might not be able to detect the rise in hospital admittance in two weeks.
I can't see it being speeded up.
There's no way.
The only way they can 'speed it up' is by using certain one-offs as 'test events'. There's provision in the package for that.
Indeed, that is what I now expect will happen to the England vs Scotland match in Euro 2021 on Friday 18 June. It will be deemed a test event for full reopening (which, awkwardly, is only three days hence).
They could speed it up by speeding it up, reducing the gap or by combining steps. Reading between the lines, it looks like schools is the big leap in the dark, with as Professor Whitty put it, the Easter holidays as a natural firebreak. Assuming there are no unwelcome developments there, the government will have more freedom to act, though this might take the form of, say, bringing home Euro 2021 and similar pre-announcements.
I'd like to say I was amazed that this was not the focal point of press questions at Boris's press conference yesterday (since everything depends on that) but, sadly, I'm not.
Press questions are structured that way to prevent a focal point. Half a dozen correspondents have one slot each, with no follow-ups. We might have fared better under the old lobby system. It turns out the Prime Minister has no great interest in holding the Prime Minister to account.
The only technique ever devised for holding people to account involves knowing your stuff, research and the power to question one on one the people you wish to hold to account, without a set time limit. Spend a few minutes watching Andrew Neil (almost the only top practitioner in this field of journalism I can think of) or a decent barrister and it all becomes obvious.
PMs and governments generally avoid any such occasions, and when they can't avoid them set careful terms of engagement and practice for ages with legal help.
Little speeches dressed up as useless questions (Pippa Crerar, Robert Peston, Laura K) are dead easy. Ditto 6 questions the LOTO gets. That's why they allow it.
Had a bit of a back and forth over vaccine passports this morning with a few colleagues over our Zoom coffee. Basically everyone is in favour of them, but that's not a surprise given that we're all 10/10 on the likely to get vaccinated scale.
Points to consider:
1. Rapid testing will increase the cost of doing business for industries that are already almost bankrupt, or if the cost is passed onto the punter then it adds £4-6 to the cost of a cinema ticket or theatre ticket. 2. People who have done COVID tests (myself included) will all say how awful they are and tbh, I'm in the camp that would just live without going to the cinema if doing a rapid test I have to pay for is the only way to get in, I'll stick with Netflix and buy a bigger TV. This was a fairly common view too. 3. For certain venues such as nightclubs they'd need to have a huge holding area where people could wait for 20 mins while their lateral flow test came back with a result, that takes up floor space and reduces drinking time for potential customers. 4. We're going to have vaccine passports for international travel anyway so it's not as if a completely new system will need to be made for it. 5. Ideally a system should operate with both options. Either you have a vaccine passport or you take a rapid test. The feeling was that as soon as those people have to do a rapid test they will go and download the app and live with it because the swabs are just awful.
This is an opportunity for the government IMO, they should make the domestic vaccine passport an option to all indoor businesses as I think it would really help build confidence among the public for indoor socialising without distancing or group size limits. I personally think it's the difference between cinemas and theatres going bankrupt and not.
A point I made before.
Is 4 not what the standard Biometric Elements of passports are almost designed for?
Standard, and already in use by more than half of all countries, including all the big population ones.
Does anyone know whether extra information can be added?
I read a sobering article that there have been serious pandemics roughly every three or four years over the last two decades (SARS, MERS, Swine Flu, Zika, Ebola - we have of course been living with AIDS for 40 years now) so the warning signs were there even before this kicked off..
It's not going to change while we have an obsession with eating partially charred bits of chopped up animal.
If you mean that in the sense that it would 'change' because the next pandemic would sweep through the enfeebled vegetarian masses and kill everyone off immediately, you're probably right.
The FDA says people most at risk from foodborne illness — children, the elderly, pregnant women and anyone with a weakened immune system — should avoid eating raw sprouts of any kind, including alfalfa, clover, radish and mung bean sprouts. ... Avoid musty-smelling, dark or slimy-looking sprouts.18 Jan 2013
Had a bit of a back and forth over vaccine passports this morning with a few colleagues over our Zoom coffee. Basically everyone is in favour of them, but that's not a surprise given that we're all 10/10 on the likely to get vaccinated scale.
Points to consider:
1. Rapid testing will increase the cost of doing business for industries that are already almost bankrupt, or if the cost is passed onto the punter then it adds £4-6 to the cost of a cinema ticket or theatre ticket. 2. People who have done COVID tests (myself included) will all say how awful they are and tbh, I'm in the camp that would just live without going to the cinema if doing a rapid test I have to pay for is the only way to get in, I'll stick with Netflix and buy a bigger TV. This was a fairly common view too. 3. For certain venues such as nightclubs they'd need to have a huge holding area where people could wait for 20 mins while their lateral flow test came back with a result, that takes up floor space and reduces drinking time for potential customers. 4. We're going to have vaccine passports for international travel anyway so it's not as if a completely new system will need to be made for it. 5. Ideally a system should operate with both options. Either you have a vaccine passport or you take a rapid test. The feeling was that as soon as those people have to do a rapid test they will go and download the app and live with it because the swabs are just awful.
This is an opportunity for the government IMO, they should make the domestic vaccine passport an option to all indoor businesses as I think it would really help build confidence among the public for indoor socialising without distancing or group size limits. I personally think it's the difference between cinemas and theatres going bankrupt and not.
A point I made before.
Is 4 not what the standard Biometric Elements of passports are almost designed for?
Standard, and already in use by more than half of all countries, including all the big population ones.
Does anyone know whether extra information can be added?
That surely means new passports for everyone though? An app is free.
Morning all. Sunny day in North London. Sunny mood with the end of the domestic pandemic in sight. My July minibreak in Whitstable looks GO GO GO. Might add another one somewhere a little more exotic such as Torquay. More prosaically, a haircut is just round the corner, so is a round of golf, so is a few pints in a beer garden. All this on the assumption I get my vaccine. Until then, I consider myself grounded.
The roadmap looks ok to me. In particular allowing ample time between relaxations to check the impact on cases and hospitalizations. I agree with the big bang on schools, all back on the 8th March. That's a risk worth taking. Also the overall "one nation" approach to emerging from lockdown, no messing around with localism or tiers, all of that was way too "busy" and divisive.
Overall, my sense is they are going a bit too slowly, which is the place to be. The extremes have been dismissed. A semi-permanent twilight world of "government by scientists" in which we chase zero covid was never a realistic prospect but it's good to see it ruled out. Sorry Devi Sridhar. You've been great but I'm not with you here. Likewise, the notion of normality by Easter. I think that might have been possible but they're right not to chance it. Another spike in the hospitals and we go into reverse? Doesn't bear thinking about. So, sorry Desmond Swayne and sundry Tory backbenchers too. You haven't been great and this was no exception.
Hope you enjoy Whitstable. You might want to imagine a teenage Mr Seal drinking cheap cider with his friends on the beach near The Neptune before Whiststable got posh. Then again you might not. A squat I used to go to parties at in Middle Wall recently sold for £650,000.
I will! Is it posh? I didn't know that. We're hopefully combining with a day at the Open - at Sandwich this year.
The bitterness and bile from a few presumably Labour supporters on here is remarkable.
I think we all acknowledge that there have been some big mistakes in the way the UK handled this pandemic early on. But that we’re now one of the most successful countries on the planet with our vaccine rollout.
Will lefties never be happy with British success?
ON the 28 day measure 120,756 people have died of Covid 33,517 of them died in January. That's over a quarter of the deaths of a year long pandemic in a single month. Last month.
That's not big mistakes in the way the UK handled this pandemic early on. That's an utter disgraceful fuckup and dereliction of duty right now.
Or a new mutation making the disease harder to contain, and only identified thanks to a world class effort and capacity in genetic sequencing. Germany have had over 50,000 deaths since October. I presume that is also 'an utter disgraceful fuckup and dereliction of duty right now'?
Look, a squirrel.
Look, someone pwned....
Fuck off you fucking partisan moron.
You're the partisan one trying to pointscore deaths for Cockney Covid which didn't even exist when decisions were made before. 🙄
Had a bit of a back and forth over vaccine passports this morning with a few colleagues over our Zoom coffee. Basically everyone is in favour of them, but that's not a surprise given that we're all 10/10 on the likely to get vaccinated scale.
Points to consider:
1. Rapid testing will increase the cost of doing business for industries that are already almost bankrupt, or if the cost is passed onto the punter then it adds £4-6 to the cost of a cinema ticket or theatre ticket. 2. People who have done COVID tests (myself included) will all say how awful they are and tbh, I'm in the camp that would just live without going to the cinema if doing a rapid test I have to pay for is the only way to get in, I'll stick with Netflix and buy a bigger TV. This was a fairly common view too. 3. For certain venues such as nightclubs they'd need to have a huge holding area where people could wait for 20 mins while their lateral flow test came back with a result, that takes up floor space and reduces drinking time for potential customers. 4. We're going to have vaccine passports for international travel anyway so it's not as if a completely new system will need to be made for it. 5. Ideally a system should operate with both options. Either you have a vaccine passport or you take a rapid test. The feeling was that as soon as those people have to do a rapid test they will go and download the app and live with it because the swabs are just awful.
This is an opportunity for the government IMO, they should make the domestic vaccine passport an option to all indoor businesses as I think it would really help build confidence among the public for indoor socialising without distancing or group size limits. I personally think it's the difference between cinemas and theatres going bankrupt and not.
A point I made before.
Is 4 not what the standard Biometric Elements of passports are almost designed for?
Standard, and already in use by more than half of all countries, including all the big population ones.
Does anyone know whether extra information can be added?
That surely means new passports for everyone though? An app is free.
Much better too. If I'm going out I'm taking my phone with me, my passport is kept in a drawer at home and I'd rather not have to take it out every time I go out.
The bitterness and bile from a few presumably Labour supporters on here is remarkable.
I think we all acknowledge that there have been some big mistakes in the way the UK handled this pandemic early on. But that we’re now one of the most successful countries on the planet with our vaccine rollout.
Will lefties never be happy with British success?
ON the 28 day measure 120,756 people have died of Covid 33,517 of them died in January. That's over a quarter of the deaths of a year long pandemic in a single month. Last month.
That's not big mistakes in the way the UK handled this pandemic early on. That's an utter disgraceful fuckup and dereliction of duty right now.
Or a new mutation making the disease harder to contain, and only identified thanks to a world class effort and capacity in genetic sequencing. Germany have had over 50,000 deaths since October. I presume that is also 'an utter disgraceful fuckup and dereliction of duty right now'?
Look, a squirrel.
Look, someone pwned....
Fuck off you fucking partisan moron.
Some don't take it well when it is pointed out what a tosser you are being. Case in point.
Now fuck off yourself, you dim twat. The 20W bulb of dim idiots.
On a zoom call this morning with my public sector colleagues - people seem surprisingly delighted with yesterday's announcement, and also relieved that the timetable is as cautious as it is. I was in a minority of one suggesting we should be released rather more quickly.
I may not like it, but I have to admit that yesterday's announcement probably judged what the country wanted pretty well.
The bitterness and bile from a few presumably Labour supporters on here is remarkable.
I think we all acknowledge that there have been some big mistakes in the way the UK handled this pandemic early on. But that we’re now one of the most successful countries on the planet with our vaccine rollout.
Will lefties never be happy with British success?
ON the 28 day measure 120,756 people have died of Covid 33,517 of them died in January. That's over a quarter of the deaths of a year long pandemic in a single month. Last month.
That's not big mistakes in the way the UK handled this pandemic early on. That's an utter disgraceful fuckup and dereliction of duty right now.
It is early on from the evolution of Cockney Covid. That wasn't known to exist or what its consequences would be in October.
Prior to Cockney Covid evolving the UK (all 4 nations) were trending below the EU average. It then skyrocketed after Cockney Covid evolved - that is new and early on for that, it didn't exist before then.
When the facts change, that can change what happens.
Why do you persist in calling it Cockney Covid? The variant has its provenance in Kent, not east London.
Had a bit of a back and forth over vaccine passports this morning with a few colleagues over our Zoom coffee. Basically everyone is in favour of them, but that's not a surprise given that we're all 10/10 on the likely to get vaccinated scale.
Points to consider:
1. Rapid testing will increase the cost of doing business for industries that are already almost bankrupt, or if the cost is passed onto the punter then it adds £4-6 to the cost of a cinema ticket or theatre ticket. 2. People who have done COVID tests (myself included) will all say how awful they are and tbh, I'm in the camp that would just live without going to the cinema if doing a rapid test I have to pay for is the only way to get in, I'll stick with Netflix and buy a bigger TV. This was a fairly common view too. 3. For certain venues such as nightclubs they'd need to have a huge holding area where people could wait for 20 mins while their lateral flow test came back with a result, that takes up floor space and reduces drinking time for potential customers. 4. We're going to have vaccine passports for international travel anyway so it's not as if a completely new system will need to be made for it. 5. Ideally a system should operate with both options. Either you have a vaccine passport or you take a rapid test. The feeling was that as soon as those people have to do a rapid test they will go and download the app and live with it because the swabs are just awful.
This is an opportunity for the government IMO, they should make the domestic vaccine passport an option to all indoor businesses as I think it would really help build confidence among the public for indoor socialising without distancing or group size limits. I personally think it's the difference between cinemas and theatres going bankrupt and not.
A point I made before.
Is 4 not what the standard Biometric Elements of passports are almost designed for?
Standard, and already in use by more than half of all countries, including all the big population ones.
Does anyone know whether extra information can be added?
That surely means new passports for everyone though? An app is free.
I don't know enough to say. Some information is stored on computers of course, which you are checked against in real-time.
eg if you are fleeing from justice they stop you without you having a new passport with your nefarious activities listed on it.
On a zoom call this morning with my public sector colleagues - people seem surprisingly delighted with yesterday's announcement, and also relieved that the timetable is as cautious as it is. I was in a minority of one suggesting we should be released rather more quickly.
I may not like it, but I have to admit that yesterday's announcement probably judged what the country wanted pretty well.
Good point. The thing to remember too is that the public are the consumers too.
If people think the lifting of lockdown is hasty and should be slowed down then many will be scared and staying at home still despite the lockdown lifting.
If people think the lifting was cautious and safe then it should be easier to get consumers going out and spending.
Morning all. Sunny day in North London. Sunny mood with the end of the domestic pandemic in sight. My July minibreak in Whitstable looks GO GO GO. Might add another one somewhere a little more exotic such as Torquay. More prosaically, a haircut is just round the corner, so is a round of golf, so is a few pints in a beer garden. All this on the assumption I get my vaccine. Until then, I consider myself grounded.
The roadmap looks ok to me. In particular allowing ample time between relaxations to check the impact on cases and hospitalizations. I agree with the big bang on schools, all back on the 8th March. That's a risk worth taking. Also the overall "one nation" approach to emerging from lockdown, no messing around with localism or tiers, all of that was way too "busy" and divisive.
Overall, my sense is they are going a bit too slowly, which is the place to be. The extremes have been dismissed. A semi-permanent twilight world of "government by scientists" in which we chase zero covid was never a realistic prospect but it's good to see it ruled out. Sorry Devi Sridhar. You've been great but I'm not with you here. Likewise, the notion of normality by Easter. I think that might have been possible but they're right not to chance it. Another spike in the hospitals and we go into reverse? Doesn't bear thinking about. So, sorry Desmond Swayne and sundry Tory backbenchers too. You haven't been great and this was no exception.
Hope you enjoy Whitstable. You might want to imagine a teenage Mr Seal drinking cheap cider with his friends on the beach near The Neptune before Whiststable got posh. Then again you might not. A squat I used to go to parties at in Middle Wall recently sold for £650,000.
I will! Is it posh? I didn't know that. We're hopefully combining with a day at the Open - at Sandwich this year.
When you pay for the oysters you will think it posh .
The bitterness and bile from a few presumably Labour supporters on here is remarkable.
I think we all acknowledge that there have been some big mistakes in the way the UK handled this pandemic early on. But that we’re now one of the most successful countries on the planet with our vaccine rollout.
Will lefties never be happy with British success?
ON the 28 day measure 120,756 people have died of Covid 33,517 of them died in January. That's over a quarter of the deaths of a year long pandemic in a single month. Last month.
That's not big mistakes in the way the UK handled this pandemic early on. That's an utter disgraceful fuckup and dereliction of duty right now.
It is early on from the evolution of Cockney Covid. That wasn't known to exist or what its consequences would be in October.
Prior to Cockney Covid evolving the UK (all 4 nations) were trending below the EU average. It then skyrocketed after Cockney Covid evolved - that is new and early on for that, it didn't exist before then.
When the facts change, that can change what happens.
Why do you persist in calling it Cockney Covid? The variant has its provenance in Kent, not east London.
Because its a lighthearted nickname on a serious subject and everyone knows what it means.
The bitterness and bile from a few presumably Labour supporters on here is remarkable.
I think we all acknowledge that there have been some big mistakes in the way the UK handled this pandemic early on. But that we’re now one of the most successful countries on the planet with our vaccine rollout.
Will lefties never be happy with British success?
ON the 28 day measure 120,756 people have died of Covid 33,517 of them died in January. That's over a quarter of the deaths of a year long pandemic in a single month. Last month.
That's not big mistakes in the way the UK handled this pandemic early on. That's an utter disgraceful fuckup and dereliction of duty right now.
It is early on from the evolution of Cockney Covid. That wasn't known to exist or what its consequences would be in October.
Prior to Cockney Covid evolving the UK (all 4 nations) were trending below the EU average. It then skyrocketed after Cockney Covid evolved - that is new and early on for that, it didn't exist before then.
When the facts change, that can change what happens.
Why do you persist in calling it Cockney Covid? The variant has its provenance in Kent, not east London.
Because its a lighthearted nickname on a serious subject and everyone knows what it means.
Not really. It's akin to calling a variant that emerged in Manchester, 'Scouse Covid'. It's a complete nonsense.
The bitterness and bile from a few presumably Labour supporters on here is remarkable.
I think we all acknowledge that there have been some big mistakes in the way the UK handled this pandemic early on. But that we’re now one of the most successful countries on the planet with our vaccine rollout.
Will lefties never be happy with British success?
ON the 28 day measure 120,756 people have died of Covid 33,517 of them died in January. That's over a quarter of the deaths of a year long pandemic in a single month. Last month.
That's not big mistakes in the way the UK handled this pandemic early on. That's an utter disgraceful fuckup and dereliction of duty right now.
It is early on from the evolution of Cockney Covid. That wasn't known to exist or what its consequences would be in October.
Prior to Cockney Covid evolving the UK (all 4 nations) were trending below the EU average. It then skyrocketed after Cockney Covid evolved - that is new and early on for that, it didn't exist before then.
When the facts change, that can change what happens.
Why do you persist in calling it Cockney Covid? The variant has its provenance in Kent, not east London.
Because its a lighthearted nickname on a serious subject and everyone knows what it means.
Not really. It's akin to calling a variant that emerged in Manchester, 'Scouse Covid'. It's a complete nonsense.
Fair enough, I've seen many others here using that term too but I'll stop then.
Morning all. Sunny day in North London. Sunny mood with the end of the domestic pandemic in sight. My July minibreak in Whitstable looks GO GO GO. Might add another one somewhere a little more exotic such as Torquay. More prosaically, a haircut is just round the corner, so is a round of golf, so is a few pints in a beer garden. All this on the assumption I get my vaccine. Until then, I consider myself grounded.
The roadmap looks ok to me. In particular allowing ample time between relaxations to check the impact on cases and hospitalizations. I agree with the big bang on schools, all back on the 8th March. That's a risk worth taking. Also the overall "one nation" approach to emerging from lockdown, no messing around with localism or tiers, all of that was way too "busy" and divisive.
Overall, my sense is they are going a bit too slowly, which is the place to be. The extremes have been dismissed. A semi-permanent twilight world of "government by scientists" in which we chase zero covid was never a realistic prospect but it's good to see it ruled out. Sorry Devi Sridhar. You've been great but I'm not with you here. Likewise, the notion of normality by Easter. I think that might have been possible but they're right not to chance it. Another spike in the hospitals and we go into reverse? Doesn't bear thinking about. So, sorry Desmond Swayne and sundry Tory backbenchers too. You haven't been great and this was no exception.
Hope you enjoy Whitstable. You might want to imagine a teenage Mr Seal drinking cheap cider with his friends on the beach near The Neptune before Whiststable got posh. Then again you might not. A squat I used to go to parties at in Middle Wall recently sold for £650,000.
I will! Is it posh? I didn't know that. We're hopefully combining with a day at the Open - at Sandwich this year.
Not so much "posh" as "Islington-on-Sea". It got "discovered" in the 90s by your everyday Metropolitan Liberal Elites and is now a very left-liberal enclave. It, along with the 2 Universities in Canterbury, is a major reason that Rosie Duffield is MP for Canterbury - Whitstable is in the contituency. Herne Bay, right next door, is very different, your stereotypical UKIP supporting estuary town, but is in North Thanet for Parliamentary purposes otherwise Duffield wouldn't get a look-in.
When I was a teenager in the late 80s/early 90s Whitstable was extemely run down, the Oyster Beds polluted out of existence and no other industries. There is even today an independent Off-Licence called "The Offy" opposite Wheelers Oyster Bar and the Duke of Cumberland on the High Street which was, back then, a Threshers. Buying cheap cider there and sitting on the beach was about all there was to do. Although there were some great gigs at the Umbrella.
Morning all. Sunny day in North London. Sunny mood with the end of the domestic pandemic in sight. My July minibreak in Whitstable looks GO GO GO. Might add another one somewhere a little more exotic such as Torquay. More prosaically, a haircut is just round the corner, so is a round of golf, so is a few pints in a beer garden. All this on the assumption I get my vaccine. Until then, I consider myself grounded.
The roadmap looks ok to me. In particular allowing ample time between relaxations to check the impact on cases and hospitalizations. I agree with the big bang on schools, all back on the 8th March. That's a risk worth taking. Also the overall "one nation" approach to emerging from lockdown, no messing around with localism or tiers, all of that was way too "busy" and divisive.
Overall, my sense is they are going a bit too slowly, which is the place to be. The extremes have been dismissed. A semi-permanent twilight world of "government by scientists" in which we chase zero covid was never a realistic prospect but it's good to see it ruled out. Sorry Devi Sridhar. You've been great but I'm not with you here. Likewise, the notion of normality by Easter. I think that might have been possible but they're right not to chance it. Another spike in the hospitals and we go into reverse? Doesn't bear thinking about. So, sorry Desmond Swayne and sundry Tory backbenchers too. You haven't been great and this was no exception.
Hope you enjoy Whitstable. You might want to imagine a teenage Mr Seal drinking cheap cider with his friends on the beach near The Neptune before Whiststable got posh. Then again you might not. A squat I used to go to parties at in Middle Wall recently sold for £650,000.
I will! Is it posh? I didn't know that. We're hopefully combining with a day at the Open - at Sandwich this year.
Not so much "posh" as "Islington-on-Sea". It got "discovered" in the 90s by your everyday Metropolitan Liberal Elites and is now a very left-liberal enclave. It, along with the 2 Universities in Canterbury, is a major reason that Rosie Duffield is MP for Canterbury - Whitstable is in the contituency. Herne Bay, right next door, is very different, your stereotypical UKIP supporting estuary town, but is in North Thanet for Parliamentary purposes otherwise Duffield wouldn't get a look-in.
When I was a teenager in the late 80s/early 90s Whitstable was extemely run down, the Oyster Beds polluted out of existence and no other industries. There is even today an independent Off-Licence called "The Offy" opposite Wheelers Oyster Bar and the Duke of Cumberland on the High Street which was, back then, a Threshers. Buying cheap cider there and sitting on the beach was about all there was to do. Although there were some great gigs at the Umbrella.
Ah ok. So not to put too fine a point on it, and setting aside "authenticity" concerns, the place has got loads better then. Something similar has happened to another Kent coastal town, Margate, I gather.
Morning all. Sunny day in North London. Sunny mood with the end of the domestic pandemic in sight. My July minibreak in Whitstable looks GO GO GO. Might add another one somewhere a little more exotic such as Torquay. More prosaically, a haircut is just round the corner, so is a round of golf, so is a few pints in a beer garden. All this on the assumption I get my vaccine. Until then, I consider myself grounded.
The roadmap looks ok to me. In particular allowing ample time between relaxations to check the impact on cases and hospitalizations. I agree with the big bang on schools, all back on the 8th March. That's a risk worth taking. Also the overall "one nation" approach to emerging from lockdown, no messing around with localism or tiers, all of that was way too "busy" and divisive.
Overall, my sense is they are going a bit too slowly, which is the place to be. The extremes have been dismissed. A semi-permanent twilight world of "government by scientists" in which we chase zero covid was never a realistic prospect but it's good to see it ruled out. Sorry Devi Sridhar. You've been great but I'm not with you here. Likewise, the notion of normality by Easter. I think that might have been possible but they're right not to chance it. Another spike in the hospitals and we go into reverse? Doesn't bear thinking about. So, sorry Desmond Swayne and sundry Tory backbenchers too. You haven't been great and this was no exception.
Hope you enjoy Whitstable. You might want to imagine a teenage Mr Seal drinking cheap cider with his friends on the beach near The Neptune before Whiststable got posh. Then again you might not. A squat I used to go to parties at in Middle Wall recently sold for £650,000.
I will! Is it posh? I didn't know that. We're hopefully combining with a day at the Open - at Sandwich this year.
When you pay for the oysters you will think it posh .
I came back with octopusses last time.
Oysters are definitely on the agenda. I can eat them by the bucketload.
On Starmer and farming, I cannot see him winning in truly rural areas, but it may well work in liminal areas. Remember that he comes from one such area himself, donkey sanctuary and all.
I think the flaw though is that there is little agricultural employment in such areas, and a lot of that is migrant labour, so fishing for votes in a very small pond.
He needs to think more Worcester Woman, the issues in rural areas and smaller urban areas are not just about farming.
This is bang on.
I live in Dorset. There simply isn't the level of rural employment that there used to be; or rather, not in the farming industry.
The same on the island.
And as for fishing, the Tories are very lucky there are so few of them, having shafted them utterly by delivering a Brexit that worsened their situation compared to being within the EU.
As was clearly pointed out on BBCTV2 last night. The disappointment was cruel.
Morning all. Sunny day in North London. Sunny mood with the end of the domestic pandemic in sight. My July minibreak in Whitstable looks GO GO GO. Might add another one somewhere a little more exotic such as Torquay. More prosaically, a haircut is just round the corner, so is a round of golf, so is a few pints in a beer garden. All this on the assumption I get my vaccine. Until then, I consider myself grounded.
The roadmap looks ok to me. In particular allowing ample time between relaxations to check the impact on cases and hospitalizations. I agree with the big bang on schools, all back on the 8th March. That's a risk worth taking. Also the overall "one nation" approach to emerging from lockdown, no messing around with localism or tiers, all of that was way too "busy" and divisive.
Overall, my sense is they are going a bit too slowly, which is the place to be. The extremes have been dismissed. A semi-permanent twilight world of "government by scientists" in which we chase zero covid was never a realistic prospect but it's good to see it ruled out. Sorry Devi Sridhar. You've been great but I'm not with you here. Likewise, the notion of normality by Easter. I think that might have been possible but they're right not to chance it. Another spike in the hospitals and we go into reverse? Doesn't bear thinking about. So, sorry Desmond Swayne and sundry Tory backbenchers too. You haven't been great and this was no exception.
Hope you enjoy Whitstable. You might want to imagine a teenage Mr Seal drinking cheap cider with his friends on the beach near The Neptune before Whiststable got posh. Then again you might not. A squat I used to go to parties at in Middle Wall recently sold for £650,000.
I will! Is it posh? I didn't know that. We're hopefully combining with a day at the Open - at Sandwich this year.
Not so much "posh" as "Islington-on-Sea". It got "discovered" in the 90s by your everyday Metropolitan Liberal Elites and is now a very left-liberal enclave. It, along with the 2 Universities in Canterbury, is a major reason that Rosie Duffield is MP for Canterbury - Whitstable is in the contituency. Herne Bay, right next door, is very different, your stereotypical UKIP supporting estuary town, but is in North Thanet for Parliamentary purposes otherwise Duffield wouldn't get a look-in.
When I was a teenager in the late 80s/early 90s Whitstable was extemely run down, the Oyster Beds polluted out of existence and no other industries. There is even today an independent Off-Licence called "The Offy" opposite Wheelers Oyster Bar and the Duke of Cumberland on the High Street which was, back then, a Threshers. Buying cheap cider there and sitting on the beach was about all there was to do. Although there were some great gigs at the Umbrella.
Ah ok. So not to put too fine a point on it, and setting aside "authenticity" concerns, the place has got loads better then. Something similar has happened to another Kent coastal town, Margate, I gather.
More or less. But there are some semi-serious disputes between the old-timers and the "DFLs" (Down From Londons) even today. It's loads nicer than Margate. If there is even semi nice wether when pub gardens reopen, and assuming it survives (I think it will) the Old Neptune will coin it in. It has practically the whole beach to itself.
The bitterness and bile from a few presumably Labour supporters on here is remarkable.
I think we all acknowledge that there have been some big mistakes in the way the UK handled this pandemic early on. But that we’re now one of the most successful countries on the planet with our vaccine rollout.
Will lefties never be happy with British success?
ON the 28 day measure 120,756 people have died of Covid 33,517 of them died in January. That's over a quarter of the deaths of a year long pandemic in a single month. Last month.
That's not big mistakes in the way the UK handled this pandemic early on. That's an utter disgraceful fuckup and dereliction of duty right now.
Or a new mutation making the disease harder to contain, and only identified thanks to a world class effort and capacity in genetic sequencing. Germany have had over 50,000 deaths since October. I presume that is also 'an utter disgraceful fuckup and dereliction of duty right now'?
Look, a squirrel.
Look, someone pwned....
Fuck off you fucking partisan moron.
Some don't take it well when it is pointed out what a tosser you are being. Case in point.
Now fuck off yourself, you dim twat. The 20W bulb of dim idiots.
I don't think many here have noticed that you are exactly the brightest bulb in the chandelier.
Morning all. Sunny day in North London. Sunny mood with the end of the domestic pandemic in sight. My July minibreak in Whitstable looks GO GO GO. Might add another one somewhere a little more exotic such as Torquay. More prosaically, a haircut is just round the corner, so is a round of golf, so is a few pints in a beer garden. All this on the assumption I get my vaccine. Until then, I consider myself grounded.
The roadmap looks ok to me. In particular allowing ample time between relaxations to check the impact on cases and hospitalizations. I agree with the big bang on schools, all back on the 8th March. That's a risk worth taking. Also the overall "one nation" approach to emerging from lockdown, no messing around with localism or tiers, all of that was way too "busy" and divisive.
Overall, my sense is they are going a bit too slowly, which is the place to be. The extremes have been dismissed. A semi-permanent twilight world of "government by scientists" in which we chase zero covid was never a realistic prospect but it's good to see it ruled out. Sorry Devi Sridhar. You've been great but I'm not with you here. Likewise, the notion of normality by Easter. I think that might have been possible but they're right not to chance it. Another spike in the hospitals and we go into reverse? Doesn't bear thinking about. So, sorry Desmond Swayne and sundry Tory backbenchers too. You haven't been great and this was no exception.
Hope you enjoy Whitstable. You might want to imagine a teenage Mr Seal drinking cheap cider with his friends on the beach near The Neptune before Whiststable got posh. Then again you might not. A squat I used to go to parties at in Middle Wall recently sold for £650,000.
I will! Is it posh? I didn't know that. We're hopefully combining with a day at the Open - at Sandwich this year.
Not so much "posh" as "Islington-on-Sea". It got "discovered" in the 90s by your everyday Metropolitan Liberal Elites and is now a very left-liberal enclave. It, along with the 2 Universities in Canterbury, is a major reason that Rosie Duffield is MP for Canterbury - Whitstable is in the contituency. Herne Bay, right next door, is very different, your stereotypical UKIP supporting estuary town, but is in North Thanet for Parliamentary purposes otherwise Duffield wouldn't get a look-in.
When I was a teenager in the late 80s/early 90s Whitstable was extemely run down, the Oyster Beds polluted out of existence and no other industries. There is even today an independent Off-Licence called "The Offy" opposite Wheelers Oyster Bar and the Duke of Cumberland on the High Street which was, back then, a Threshers. Buying cheap cider there and sitting on the beach was about all there was to do. Although there were some great gigs at the Umbrella.
Ah ok. So not to put too fine a point on it, and setting aside "authenticity" concerns, the place has got loads better then. Something similar has happened to another Kent coastal town, Margate, I gather.
More or less. But there are some semi-serious disputes between the old-timers and the "DFLs" (Down From Londons) even today. It's loads nicer than Margate. If there is even semi nice wether when pub gardens reopen, and assuming it survives (I think it will) the Old Neptune will coin it in. It has practically the whole beach to itself.
Old Neptune. Right. Bookmarked. And I see what you mean re the upgrade. Just checked house prices. Golly. Similar to Surrey home counties.
Morning all. Sunny day in North London. Sunny mood with the end of the domestic pandemic in sight. My July minibreak in Whitstable looks GO GO GO. Might add another one somewhere a little more exotic such as Torquay. More prosaically, a haircut is just round the corner, so is a round of golf, so is a few pints in a beer garden. All this on the assumption I get my vaccine. Until then, I consider myself grounded.
The roadmap looks ok to me. In particular allowing ample time between relaxations to check the impact on cases and hospitalizations. I agree with the big bang on schools, all back on the 8th March. That's a risk worth taking. Also the overall "one nation" approach to emerging from lockdown, no messing around with localism or tiers, all of that was way too "busy" and divisive.
Overall, my sense is they are going a bit too slowly, which is the place to be. The extremes have been dismissed. A semi-permanent twilight world of "government by scientists" in which we chase zero covid was never a realistic prospect but it's good to see it ruled out. Sorry Devi Sridhar. You've been great but I'm not with you here. Likewise, the notion of normality by Easter. I think that might have been possible but they're right not to chance it. Another spike in the hospitals and we go into reverse? Doesn't bear thinking about. So, sorry Desmond Swayne and sundry Tory backbenchers too. You haven't been great and this was no exception.
Hope you enjoy Whitstable. You might want to imagine a teenage Mr Seal drinking cheap cider with his friends on the beach near The Neptune before Whiststable got posh. Then again you might not. A squat I used to go to parties at in Middle Wall recently sold for £650,000.
I will! Is it posh? I didn't know that. We're hopefully combining with a day at the Open - at Sandwich this year.
Not so much "posh" as "Islington-on-Sea". It got "discovered" in the 90s by your everyday Metropolitan Liberal Elites and is now a very left-liberal enclave. It, along with the 2 Universities in Canterbury, is a major reason that Rosie Duffield is MP for Canterbury - Whitstable is in the contituency. Herne Bay, right next door, is very different, your stereotypical UKIP supporting estuary town, but is in North Thanet for Parliamentary purposes otherwise Duffield wouldn't get a look-in.
When I was a teenager in the late 80s/early 90s Whitstable was extemely run down, the Oyster Beds polluted out of existence and no other industries. There is even today an independent Off-Licence called "The Offy" opposite Wheelers Oyster Bar and the Duke of Cumberland on the High Street which was, back then, a Threshers. Buying cheap cider there and sitting on the beach was about all there was to do. Although there were some great gigs at the Umbrella.
Ah ok. So not to put too fine a point on it, and setting aside "authenticity" concerns, the place has got loads better then. Something similar has happened to another Kent coastal town, Margate, I gather.
More or less. But there are some semi-serious disputes between the old-timers and the "DFLs" (Down From Londons) even today. It's loads nicer than Margate. If there is even semi nice wether when pub gardens reopen, and assuming it survives (I think it will) the Old Neptune will coin it in. It has practically the whole beach to itself.
Old Neptune. Right. Bookmarked. And I see what you mean re the upgrade. Just checked house prices. Golly. Similar to Surrey home counties.
My parents have a beach hut that they consider themselves extremely lucky to have.
Aren't we the only country in the world where "official" Covid deaths are greater than excess deaths? I have heard plenty of anecdotes where Covid was put as the cause of death when it wasn't really (i.e. dying "with" and not "of").
It is quite a contrast with other countries where they are trying to hide their excess deaths figure.
The bitterness and bile from a few presumably Labour supporters on here is remarkable.
I think we all acknowledge that there have been some big mistakes in the way the UK handled this pandemic early on. But that we’re now one of the most successful countries on the planet with our vaccine rollout.
Will lefties never be happy with British success?
ON the 28 day measure 120,756 people have died of Covid 33,517 of them died in January. That's over a quarter of the deaths of a year long pandemic in a single month. Last month.
That's not big mistakes in the way the UK handled this pandemic early on. That's an utter disgraceful fuckup and dereliction of duty right now.
Or a new mutation making the disease harder to contain, and only identified thanks to a world class effort and capacity in genetic sequencing. Germany have had over 50,000 deaths since October. I presume that is also 'an utter disgraceful fuckup and dereliction of duty right now'?
Look, a squirrel.
Look, someone pwned....
Fuck off you fucking partisan moron.
Some don't take it well when it is pointed out what a tosser you are being. Case in point.
Now fuck off yourself, you dim twat. The 20W bulb of dim idiots.
20W bulbs are really pretty bright nowadays.
Now, can you both calm down and have a virtual hug or something?
Aren't we the only country in the world where "official" Covid deaths are greater than excess deaths? I have heard plenty of anecdotes where Covid was put as the cause of death when it wasn't really (i.e. dying "with" and not "of").
It is quite a contrast with other countries where they are trying to hide their excess deaths figure.
Interesting bit of "excess death nationalism" I must say. I think most western data is pretty accurate. Excess deaths will need to be considered properly in considerable hindsight to be properly compared, though I am not expecting ours (including the devolved nations) to be very good at all . Chinese data is, predictably, a very large pack of lies.
For men however, the pub is the focal point of social interaction and until pubs open, many of us remain remote and cut off from our friends. You see, we tend not to meet for coffee, or go clothes shopping together. We do not do Pilates in the park or hook up when we take the kids to the duck pond. We don’t Zoom for chats.
Instead, you can find us bonding in the nooks and crannies of Britain’s pubs, or standing at bars, clutching pints, talking rubbish. These are our rituals, enshrined in us by our fathers and their fathers before them.
Aren't we the only country in the world where "official" Covid deaths are greater than excess deaths? I have heard plenty of anecdotes where Covid was put as the cause of death when it wasn't really (i.e. dying "with" and not "of").
It is quite a contrast with other countries where they are trying to hide their excess deaths figure.
Interesting bit of "excess death nationalism" I must say. I think most western data is pretty accurate. Excess deaths will need to be considered properly in considerable hindsight to be properly compared, though I am not expecting ours (including the devolved nations) to be very good at all . Chinese data is, predictably, a very large pack of lies.
But what they said is true, the UK is the only country where excess deaths is lower than the covid death toll.
On Starmer and farming, I cannot see him winning in truly rural areas, but it may well work in liminal areas. Remember that he comes from one such area himself, donkey sanctuary and all.
I think the flaw though is that there is little agricultural employment in such areas, and a lot of that is migrant labour, so fishing for votes in a very small pond.
He needs to think more Worcester Woman, the issues in rural areas and smaller urban areas are not just about farming.
This is bang on.
I live in Dorset. There simply isn't the level of rural employment that there used to be; or rather, not in the farming industry.
The same on the island.
And as for fishing, the Tories are very lucky there are so few of them, having shafted them utterly by delivering a Brexit that worsened their situation compared to being within the EU.
As was clearly pointed out on BBCTV2 last night. The disappointment was cruel.
Brexit always was about gulling the most gullible
That Fishing - supposedly a priority - has been shafted says much about the likely impact on sectors that were not a priority. But of course in truth there was just the one priority driving the Thin Deal. The personal political interests of one Boris Johnson. This will become clear to many as time passes and the fog clears. The question is, will that 'many' be of sufficient number to give him and the Cons the heave ho at the next election?
The bitterness and bile from a few presumably Labour supporters on here is remarkable.
I think we all acknowledge that there have been some big mistakes in the way the UK handled this pandemic early on. But that we’re now one of the most successful countries on the planet with our vaccine rollout.
Will lefties never be happy with British success?
ON the 28 day measure 120,756 people have died of Covid 33,517 of them died in January. That's over a quarter of the deaths of a year long pandemic in a single month. Last month.
That's not big mistakes in the way the UK handled this pandemic early on. That's an utter disgraceful fuckup and dereliction of duty right now.
Or a new mutation making the disease harder to contain, and only identified thanks to a world class effort and capacity in genetic sequencing. Germany have had over 50,000 deaths since October. I presume that is also 'an utter disgraceful fuckup and dereliction of duty right now'?
Look, a squirrel.
Any comment about other countries? Or is it just the UK (or even the English) government (as health is devolved) that has got this so wrong?
The bitterness and bile from a few presumably Labour supporters on here is remarkable.
I think we all acknowledge that there have been some big mistakes in the way the UK handled this pandemic early on. But that we’re now one of the most successful countries on the planet with our vaccine rollout.
Will lefties never be happy with British success?
ON the 28 day measure 120,756 people have died of Covid 33,517 of them died in January. That's over a quarter of the deaths of a year long pandemic in a single month. Last month.
That's not big mistakes in the way the UK handled this pandemic early on. That's an utter disgraceful fuckup and dereliction of duty right now.
Or a new mutation making the disease harder to contain, and only identified thanks to a world class effort and capacity in genetic sequencing. Germany have had over 50,000 deaths since October. I presume that is also 'an utter disgraceful fuckup and dereliction of duty right now'?
Look, a squirrel.
Look, someone pwned....
Fuck off you fucking partisan moron.
Bit harsh for 10 in the morning... People are allowed different views surely? We have not done well in handling this pandemic, but we are not alone in this.
On Starmer and farming, I cannot see him winning in truly rural areas, but it may well work in liminal areas. Remember that he comes from one such area himself, donkey sanctuary and all.
I think the flaw though is that there is little agricultural employment in such areas, and a lot of that is migrant labour, so fishing for votes in a very small pond.
He needs to think more Worcester Woman, the issues in rural areas and smaller urban areas are not just about farming.
This is bang on.
I live in Dorset. There simply isn't the level of rural employment that there used to be; or rather, not in the farming industry.
The same on the island.
And as for fishing, the Tories are very lucky there are so few of them, having shafted them utterly by delivering a Brexit that worsened their situation compared to being within the EU.
As was clearly pointed out on BBCTV2 last night. The disappointment was cruel.
Brexit always was about gulling the most gullible
That Fishing - supposedly a priority - has been shafted says much about the likely impact on sectors that were not a priority. But of course in truth there was just the one priority driving the Thin Deal. The personal political interests of one Boris Johnson. This will become clear to many as time passes and the fog clears. The question is, will that 'many' be of sufficient number to give him and the Cons the heave ho at the next election?
I am not sure it will. I won't vote Conservative again until he is gone as leader (leader?!!!), even though I am not at all keen on the idea of a Labour government. My conscience will not let me indirectly vote for someone that is so fundamentally dishonest and unsuited to high office, but I am not sure the majority of people care any more for who is PM than I do about the latest goings on with Harry and Megan or Kim and Kanye.
The very, very fastest you could speed it up is 3 weeks. As you need 2 weeks to detect if there is a rise in cases and a week to plan the unlock.
But even that is breakneck fast as you might not be able to detect the rise in hospital admittance in two weeks.
Agreed on the 3 weeks. No need to wait for hospitalisation data when cases are ok, as hospitalisations per case are only going to get better thanks to the vaccine effect ramping up. When cases are rising, however, and hospitalisations aren't seriously low already, you have to delay the next step.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather us unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Aren't we the only country in the world where "official" Covid deaths are greater than excess deaths? I have heard plenty of anecdotes where Covid was put as the cause of death when it wasn't really (i.e. dying "with" and not "of").
It is quite a contrast with other countries where they are trying to hide their excess deaths figure.
One would assume that excess deaths could well be lower than covid deaths, as the lockdown would affect other non-covid death routes.
Influenza (and any other virus with a lower R than SARS-CoV-2, such as rotavirus or norovirus) would cause far fewer deaths than normal. Road accidents will be well down, as well as workplace accidents likely to be significantly down. Causes of increased deaths from lockdown (such as delayed cancer diagnoses) will be largely (albeit not exclusively) lagged by months or even years.
I'd be totally unsurprised if covid deaths came out as higher than excess deaths everywhere - when they are finally counted properly and reliably.
Comments
This time I really am gone.
There is some scientific speculation that the "Russian Flu" of 1890 was caused by a coronavirus but people on here who know far more than me say a flu strain remains most likely - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889–1890_pandemic#Coronavirus
They have done their bit during the pandemic, but they certainly haven't kept to this latest one in any way, shape or form...
A rise from 100 per day to 200 per day is nothing if there are millions of people vaccinated in the previous two weeks and to be so in the upcoming weeks.
https://twitter.com/sarahzhang/status/1363956932768333831?s=20
One question that would have been useful would have been - "What are the targets for vaccination at each step?"
To get every single adult in the country vaccinated by June 21st would take 308K per day (first jabs only). That ignores the requirement for second jabs - that would be additional to the 308K
For both jabs for everyone, 761K per day.
Prior to Cockney Covid evolving the UK (all 4 nations) were trending below the EU average. It then skyrocketed after Cockney Covid evolved - that is new and early on for that, it didn't exist before then.
When the facts change, that can change what happens.
And as for fishing, the Tories are very lucky there are so few of them, having shafted them utterly by delivering a Brexit that worsened their situation compared to being within the EU.
926K for complete
The later number suggests a reason for the Daily Hate story about wanting/planning for 1M per day, a little while back.
If hospitalisations drop to near-zero there's no way its going to stick to five weeks, nor should it. And even sticking to five weeks would make it nigh on impossible to distringuish trends from noise if numbers are near-zero.
This is a case of under promising and over delivering. A timeline is set out, people will scream bloody murder if its delayed - but will be very happy to see it sped up. So be conservative now and speed up when its undeniably safe to do so later on.
Getting the first to everyone makes good sense. I'm eager to just have my first +21 days, the second is meh can wait until its appropriate to do it.
Points to consider:
1. Rapid testing will increase the cost of doing business for industries that are already almost bankrupt, or if the cost is passed onto the punter then it adds £4-6 to the cost of a cinema ticket or theatre ticket.
2. People who have done COVID tests (myself included) will all say how awful they are and tbh, I'm in the camp that would just live without going to the cinema if doing a rapid test I have to pay for is the only way to get in, I'll stick with Netflix and buy a bigger TV. This was a fairly common view too.
3. For certain venues such as nightclubs they'd need to have a huge holding area where people could wait for 20 mins while their lateral flow test came back with a result, that takes up floor space and reduces drinking time for potential customers.
4. We're going to have vaccine passports for international travel anyway so it's not as if a completely new system will need to be made for it.
5. Ideally a system should operate with both options. Either you have a vaccine passport or you take a rapid test. The feeling was that as soon as those people have to do a rapid test they will go and download the app and live with it because the swabs are just awful.
This is an opportunity for the government IMO, they should make the domestic vaccine passport an option to all indoor businesses as I think it would really help build confidence among the public for indoor socialising without distancing or group size limits. I personally think it's the difference between cinemas and theatres going bankrupt and not.
Indeed, that is what I now expect will happen to the England vs Scotland match in Euro 2021 on Friday 18 June. It will be deemed a test event for full reopening (which, awkwardly, is only three days hence).
The roadmap looks ok to me. In particular allowing ample time between relaxations to check the impact on cases and hospitalizations. I agree with the big bang on schools, all back on the 8th March. That's a risk worth taking. Also the overall "one nation" approach to emerging from lockdown, no messing around with localism or tiers, all of that was way too "busy" and divisive.
Overall, my sense is they are going a bit too slowly, which is the place to be. The extremes have been dismissed. A semi-permanent twilight world of "government by scientists" in which we chase zero covid was never a realistic prospect but it's good to see it ruled out. Sorry Devi Sridhar. You've been great but I'm not with you here. Likewise, the notion of normality by Easter. I think that might have been possible but they're right not to chance it. Another spike in the hospitals and we go into reverse? Doesn't bear thinking about. So, sorry Desmond Swayne and sundry Tory backbenchers too. You haven't been great and this was no exception.
I suppose if vaccinations are sped up so everyone can get a vaccine before 21 June then there'd be no reason not to do passports starting from 21 June unlocking.
In Gaelic with English subtitles!
Deaths per week doubled twice in September
Deaths per week doubled twice again in October.
October is *checks notes* 3 months before January.
Current state of play
First dose: 17,723,840
Second dose: 624,325
so
First remaining : 36,375,131
Second remaining: 53,474,646
End of May - 97 days
21st June - 118 days
Cockney Covid changed all that. It wasn't known about in September or October.
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/22/politics/supreme-court-trump-taxes-vance/index.html
We should be in a position where people can simply queue up for their first vaccine dose by June 21st so those who have previously refused are able to then go and get one realising that it's a choice between paying for a rapid test to go to the pub or getting a free vaccine and a free passport app.
Better than the crazy idea some wanted of allowing vaccinated oldies to be free while the young would be imprisoned at home. So long as everyone's got an equal opportunity its entirely reasonable. 👍
&
17.1 million + the next 15 days total need to be done as second jabs before the end of May
So we have 50m - 17.7m first jabs = 32.3 million and 17.1 million second jabs + 15 days worth of first jabs (350k say) ~= 55 million jabs in 98 days =~ 560k/day.
All adults by 31st May (First jab) does actually look more doable than I'd first thought...
PMs and governments generally avoid any such occasions, and when they can't avoid them set careful terms of engagement and practice for ages with legal help.
Little speeches dressed up as useless questions (Pippa Crerar, Robert Peston, Laura K) are dead easy. Ditto 6 questions the LOTO gets. That's why they allow it.
Is 4 not what the standard Biometric Elements of passports are almost designed for?
Standard, and already in use by more than half of all countries, including all the big population ones.
Does anyone know whether extra information can be added?
Is it posh? I didn't know that.
We're hopefully combining with a day at the Open - at Sandwich this year.
Now fuck off yourself, you dim twat. The 20W bulb of dim idiots.
I may not like it, but I have to admit that yesterday's announcement probably judged what the country wanted pretty well.
eg if you are fleeing from justice they stop you without you having a new passport with your nefarious activities listed on it.
If people think the lifting of lockdown is hasty and should be slowed down then many will be scared and staying at home still despite the lockdown lifting.
If people think the lifting was cautious and safe then it should be easier to get consumers going out and spending.
I came back with octopusses last time.
When I was a teenager in the late 80s/early 90s Whitstable was extemely run down, the Oyster Beds polluted out of existence and no other industries. There is even today an independent Off-Licence called "The Offy" opposite Wheelers Oyster Bar and the Duke of Cumberland on the High Street which was, back then, a Threshers. Buying cheap cider there and sitting on the beach was about all there was to do. Although there were some great gigs at the Umbrella.
It is quite a contrast with other countries where they are trying to hide their excess deaths figure.
Now, can you both calm down and have a virtual hug or something?
https://www.politico.eu/coronavirus-in-europe/
Very few beer gardens are going to open because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Influenza (and any other virus with a lower R than SARS-CoV-2, such as rotavirus or norovirus) would cause far fewer deaths than normal.
Road accidents will be well down, as well as workplace accidents likely to be significantly down.
Causes of increased deaths from lockdown (such as delayed cancer diagnoses) will be largely (albeit not exclusively) lagged by months or even years.
I'd be totally unsurprised if covid deaths came out as higher than excess deaths everywhere - when they are finally counted properly and reliably.