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Brian Rose, the surprise second favourite for the London Mayoralty, is now out to 32 on Betfair – po
Brian Rose, the surprise second favourite for the London Mayoralty, is now out to 32 on Betfair – politicalbetting.com
In previous years when there has been a London mayoral election it has been a major political betting event. That has been much less so this year because the incumbent, Sadiq Khan, looks totally dominant and all the polling has him clearly ahead.
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-56139243
https://twitter.com/ariehkovler/status/1363171631703687171
https://twitter.com/gabrielmilland/status/1363109869071532034
https://twitter.com/gabrielmilland/status/1363155364489920512
Gaussian said:
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Cases were falling fastest a couple of weeks ago and have now slowed down a bit. That slowdown would normally feed through into hospitalisations and deaths in a week or three as well, although this time the vaccines kicking in should mean that they'll keep falling more than cases.
Mind you, if cases start rising, as they're threatening to do in Scotland, that could easily cancel out the vaccine effect.
On a 7 day moving average I make R:
cases 0.81
admissions 0.78
in hospital 0.79
ventilators 0.84
deaths 0.72
At least R is significantly lower than 1 in all metrics.
I think the most important metric is hospital admissions.
Cases might include very slight symptoms or none at all.
In the first wave, peak admissions was 7th April at 3,115
Lowest was 25th August at 95! Everyone relaxed
In the second wave peak admissions was 12th January at 4,204. At bursting point.
It is now 1,545 and halving every 20 days (R= 0.78)
so if this continues:
12th March 772
1st April 366
21st April 183
11th May 90 - relax again
Boom!
Then my bank (Lloyds) restricted my transfers to Betfair to £25 a day to protect me!
Overall I have laid Rose £1,400 to win £250. It's the nearest to free money I have ever come across.
And, one would imagine, if it's true of Pfizer, it will be true of Moderna, and to a lesser extent AZ and Novavax too.
For the purposes of modelling, a person who has been vaccinated twice is not going to be spreading CV19, and that means we can be extremely confident that R is going to start heading down pretty sharp-ish.
Excellent news all round.
Although how you square his panic stricken posts with his countrywide touring every time the government requires us to stay at home, is another matter.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1363158586793336840?s=20
Maybe more pertinently though, the absolute number of serious cases and deaths in the vaccine arm will be extremely small given those percentages, which means their confidence intervals probably overlap quite a bit.
I'm comparing the 7 day moving average with that of 7 days ago. UK data
Gotta get the value.
Tories will be sitting at home rather than voting. Or if we are lucky, in the pub! 👍
My relative on ventilation is not doing well. The ICU consultant has had a serious talk with his wife.
The doctor has said that he is no longer suitable for ECMO, even though relatively young (40) and fit, because he has been on ventilation for over a week. His (the patient's) wife, who is a nurse, looked this up and can't see it in the ECMO guidelines, and was wondering where it comes from. She's understandably in a bit of a state and is casting around for information.
Do you happen to know what the reason is for not allowing people who have been on ventilation for a week to go on ECMO? I know it's not your area but wondered if you happened to have local info.
We're not under any illusions about his chances though (as you've mentioned) if hope were lost they wouldn't continue treatment. It's his wife and kids I feel for the most.
--AS
He is clearly trying to position himself as the main candidate of the populist right to take on Mayor Khan rather than the more mainstream Shaun Bailey
I wonder when England will kick in?
Are they trying to take out all our players?
Well done. I am only half the man that you are.
EU students are being put on a level footing with Rest of the World students and why shouldn't they be?
Presumably unis if they're struggling to get students can drop the Rest of the World price if they want to be but why should they discriminate against Africans or Asians over Europeans?
It really needs privatising to sink or swim because it's just becoming embarrassingly poor now.
I did find it interesting though that, according to Wikipedia, regarding “It’s A Sin”:
The show's subject matter of HIV and AIDS was difficult to sell to broadcasters. BBC One and ITV declined to develop the series and Channel 4 only took it on after their commissioning editor of drama, Lee Mason fought for it.
If they were wanting to ensure they kept subscribers it would be much better than it is.
Mind you when you go even further down the age range it's YouTube that is TV.
Make the Licence Fee a voluntary subscription and there'd be no reason to have a bee in the bonnet, can just unsubscribe instead.
They are so lucky to have the licence fee that has shielded them from this reality. The BBC continues to live in an unreality bubble.
So does that mean Shaun Bailey will come a poor second, or is there a candidate who can hoover up an anti-Sadiq vote?
Put the BBC on for a football game and forget about it and afterwards there'll be a red screen with text saying to change channels.
This sort of stuff shouldn't have happened since the 20th century ended. Farcical.
The likes of Netflix, Disney+, Amazon Prime Video, Apple TV+ and more are spending a huge amount of money on programming that the BBC will struggle to match, because they sell their programming globally, and can reach huge audiences. The BBC's entire budget is about £5 billion a year. YouTube, with essentially no original programming, took in nearly $7 billion in Q4 alone. The BBC is not a big fish in a small pond when you look at media globally.
The Pfizer news is no surprise at all. From the very beginning, Pfizer have said that the meximum efficacy of their vaccine is achieved seven days after the second vaccination which should be 21 days after the first. It takes four weeks from the initial vaccination to achieve the very high levels of protection suggested.
It may well be "newer vaccines" achieve similar results more quickly - progress can be rapid - and perhaps it won't be long before high levels of immunity are achieved within a week of a single vaccination - let's hope.
I have always argued we should have followed the initial Pfizer recommendation and applied the second vaccination 21 days after the first but the Government took a different option based on the JCVI evidence at New Year. It doesn't much matter now to be honest.
Getting the second doses moving now, whether Pfizer or Oxford AZ, is vital to ensuring we can emerge from the current restrictions in a better and stronger position.
At the same time, we need to see evidence first doses are being applied through the population as consistently as possible and that some areas aren't being left behind for whatever reason while others are well through groups 1-7 for example.
But most/all of the criticism on here comes from price-of-everything-value-of-nothing lib-baiters.
This is what I see happening.
27 Feb, 18.20 hrs, Wales win the Triple Crown.
Drakeford grabs the populist moment. He says, in a voice cracking with emotion, "Some things are way more important than life and death. I am opening the pubs for 24 hours to celebrate beating England. Let's get drinking."
27 Feb, 23.00 hrs.
A "tired and emotional" Drakeford is pictured brawling with a photographer, after being sick under the statue of Aneurin Bevin in Queen Street. Drakeford hails a cab in the company of two young people he refers to as "My Little Welsh Easter Bunnies".
28 Feb, 10.00 hrs.
Grace & Sheena tell of their Three-in-a-Bed Romp with Drakeford at the Cardiff Radisson. "He hits the spot", says Grace from Splott, "He's hard all the time. He really is the up-and-coming man in Welsh politics", says Sheena from Rhiwbena.
28 Feb, 16.00 hrs.
Drakeford announces that he is changing his name to Big_M_Cymru, which is more in keeping with his soaring popularity. @Big_G_North_Wales leaves the Tory Party. "Finally, I have found the two-fisted He-Man politician of my dreams", Big_G confesses.
20 March, 22.00 hrs, Wales win the Grand Slam.
The air is full of singing, led by Big_M. The pubs are full of drinking, led by Big_M. The Tory leader Andrew RT Davies resigns, he realises the position is now absolutely hopeless.
6 May, 24.00 hrs.
Big_M sweeps the Senedd elections. His book on "How my Penis wins a Grand Slam every time" is top of the best sellers'.
7 May, 9.00 hrs.
SKS asks Big_M for help in changing his image from a miserable old git to a sexy socialist. "People find me boring' says Sir Keir sadly.
I wonder if they invited Rebecca Loos? They’d be swine to have done so although I reckon she’d be chicken
Put another way, it should have been first to make It’s a Sin, but it should sell the rights to make Call the Midwife and Casualty to somebody else.
The fact is in all polls Rose is getting nothing and part of me wonders whether his candidacy is an attempt to play the exchanges and the betting market.
He is present on various social media platforms but there's no sign of this getting any traction. The polls have consistently had Khan just below 50%, Bailey just below 30% and both Porritt and Berry around 10% with the fragments including 2% for Peter Gammons.
It's possible Khan will take us on the first ballot but even if Bailey pushed him to a second ballot it looks as though Khan would get 63-64%. The polls have been remarkably consistent since last August.
Don't watch it often though, as I said normally if I have it on its because England were playing ont he Beeb and I haven't bothered switching over afterwards.
Yet its music endures.
Brilliant opening!
London is suffering, profoundly, and Khan cowers away: virtually mute and certainly inert. Labour would be insane to elect him as leader, a man even more boring than Starmer.
Besides, the next Labour leader will SURELY be a woman
So, why choose for your illustrative example an MA in History of Art?
For some people, History of Art is the way out of the ghetto. But, not very many.
A more moneyed & highly affluent bunch of students it would probably be hard to find.