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Biden doing 18% better in approval terms than Trump was getting at the start of his presidency – pol

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Comments

  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Restaurants might be closed, but we are swapping food cooked by neighbours. One of them left us a world-class fish curry last week. We have responded by dropping them off a duck and sausage cassoulet with a chocolate and orange mousse (Raymond Blanc's mother's recipe....).

    We are coping.

    I think this posting might be Peak pb.com. :)
  • What a shit Sir Andrew Murray and his brother are.

    Judy Murray has revealed that she had a £4,500 non-surgical facelift after her sons, the tennis champions, teased her about having “turkey neck”.

    The 61-year-old tennis coach said that years training outside and watching her sons compete in the sun had left her skin wrinkly.

    “My kids, Jamie and Andy, started to call me turkey neck a few years ago in a loving and jokey way,” she said in a talk released by her cosmetic doctor. “That may have had something to do with me thinking I really should do something about this if I can.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/judy-murray-facelift-andy-fp5pm5vb2?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1613409425
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,054
    DougSeal said:

    Lennon said:

    MaxPB said:

    The R in London has completely dropped off, I think we're at just over 0.6 so I think we need to start looking into whether herd immunity has been reached in some boroughs.

    How would you propose testing that hypothesis? (Which I think is potentially valid - but if so will likely be through a combination of Vaccine, Antibodies from previous COVID infection, T-Cell from previous COVID, and T-Cell from previous related infection - so non straightforward to test for)

    Also - it might be the case that herd immunity has been reached *with the current lockdown rules in place* - ie that herd immunity has been reached amongst hospital workers, bus drivers etc. but that the general populace is still more vulnerable.
    I agree with all of that. It is a very difficult hypothesis to test. However, globally, if we assume in the aggregate the rate of human contact is similar throughout the world, then I cannot fathom an explanation as to the current downward slope of the below graph unless the virus is running out of people to infect, or at least cause symptoms in. It's been doing this for over a month now - tomorrow or the day after the seven day average will be half what it was at the peak on 13 January.


    People were calling "herd immunity" last June, as I recall.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    Foxy said:

    DougSeal said:

    Lennon said:

    MaxPB said:

    The R in London has completely dropped off, I think we're at just over 0.6 so I think we need to start looking into whether herd immunity has been reached in some boroughs.

    How would you propose testing that hypothesis? (Which I think is potentially valid - but if so will likely be through a combination of Vaccine, Antibodies from previous COVID infection, T-Cell from previous COVID, and T-Cell from previous related infection - so non straightforward to test for)

    Also - it might be the case that herd immunity has been reached *with the current lockdown rules in place* - ie that herd immunity has been reached amongst hospital workers, bus drivers etc. but that the general populace is still more vulnerable.
    I agree with all of that. It is a very difficult hypothesis to test. However, globally, if we assume in the aggregate the rate of human contact is similar throughout the world, then I cannot fathom an explanation as to the current downward slope of the below graph unless the virus is running out of people to infect, or at least cause symptoms in. It's been doing this for over a month now - tomorrow or the day after the seven day average will be half what it was at the peak on 13 January.


    People were calling "herd immunity" last June, as I recall.
    They were wrong. And those claiming it now may be wrong. But the fact of the longest and sharpest global decline incases since the beginning of the pandemic is one that needs an explanation and it is not an unreasonable hypothesis.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629

    Stocky said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Chatting to my MP today, he is very clear about one thing: there can be no more lockdowns after these end. If that requires a little more caution on the dates we exit the current one, so be it.

    He's a very stupid MP then, and almost certainly trumpeting his own greatness.

    There will be as many lockdowns as it needs. I suspect though that there will be no more lockdowns, but he's right in the idea that we run this lockdown as long as is needed.
    Except that some new political parties will pledge never to have lockdowns again, whatever ills befall the British people.

    Perhaps that will be popular. Or not. We do not yet know.
    I can't see such a thing. The idea of basing a party on it is absurd.
    Reform and Reclaim will both campaign on No lockdown tickets in the spring. Reform have Great Barrington as a policy.

    Oh God. That may do more harm than good.
    I think this site, along with the media and the government enormously underestimates the suffering that lockdown has caused.

    I also think the site underestimates the extent to which traditional supporters of the main parties have seen their representatives in a new light. Labour calling for ever tighter restrictions and job destroying measures on their young voters. Conservatives spending like Corbynites and acting like authoritarian socialists.

    These insights may count one day. Or they may not. We don;t know yet.
    Lockdown is very popular for the following reasons:

    1. Widespread public fear of the virus on the one hand; on the other, the idea that if we stick it out for just a bit longer then the vaccines will finish the thing off and we can go back to normal
    2. Large numbers of working age people are yet to suffer because they're being paid most of their salary to do nothing via the furlough scheme
    3. Large numbers of old people (the key Tory demographic) spend most of their lives sat in front of the TV or shuffling to and from the supermarket, so they barely notice the difference anyway
    4. Much of the population are sanctimonious curtain-twitchers for whom moaning about the bad behaviour of others makes them feel really good

    Moreover, a large fraction of the people who are absolutely sick of it nonetheless regard it as a necessary evil, and/or something that they can do nothing about anyway.

    I don't think somehow that we're on the cusp of a revolution here.
    You missed 5)

    5) a lot of the country can't afford to drink in pubs or eat in restaurants or go on holidays foreign or otherwise so a life of staying at home watching tv occasionally going to the supermarket so they barely notice the difference anyway
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    More holiday questions.

    Of course.

    Millions of people want to escape this and go on holiday.

    The prior question was about support for people with mental health problems. Having clarity about holidays one way or another, and asking about when and if is a part of the normalisation of our lives and a coping mechanism for people who are suffering.

    Does it mean they are demanding holidays? Only JHB and Tobes. The rest are just willing for it all to be "ok" and these questions are part of it.

    Not everyone is as sanguine, wise, or has all the stats at their fingertips plus an informed view of the viral epidemiology.
    Where do they want to go, Israel?
    They are just scared, depressed, nervous, anxious. But for sure smartarse comments will help I'm sure.
    I'm genuinely curious where they are hoping to go? Perhaps a dose of realism is in order.
    Rob they want it all to be ok later in the year. Will it be? Who knows. But that is what people, in all their illogical, ignorant, misinformed glory want.

    And hence the press are articulating this.

    Both the questions and the answers are part of the coping mechanism.
    The journalist was asking about holidays in weeks, not months. They should simply get a grip and stop asking.
    I know we're all on PB but you do understand how human beings work, don't you?

    Not all as clever as you, obvs, but the lumpen proletariat are a funny lot.
    I honestly don't see how anyone, lumpen or not, benefits from false hope. There's plenty of good news coming in by the day, but foreign holidays are obviously going to be impractical for a while and there's no point in pretending otherwise.
    It's not false hope. It's a process. First, it means it is in the public domain and, as @Anabobazina points out, ensures that the government - and scientists - are aware that millions of people want them, somehow, to work towards getting them to be able to go on holiday as soon as possible.

    Secondly, by articulating it it is then out in the open. So "When can I go on holiday?" is met with "Not yet." that addresses directly peoples' concerns and helps them reconcile themselves with the situation.
    Well, God knows the country is in need of some collective reassurance and counselling during this thing. In the past, my concern was that that kind of pressure could lead to too quick a loosening for the sake of some easy popularity, but it looks as if the government have learned that lesson this time around.
    Except that this approach contradicts the government's own narrative.

    Look at our wonderful vaccines!

    Careful they may NOT protect you! that's why we still need lockdown!!

    No it doesn't. Why do you keep peddling something you don't understand?

    1. The vaccines don't protect EVERYBODY, although they do protect most people.
    2. Not everyone is vaccinated.
    3. Time is needed after vaccination to build immunity.

    Which part of this don't you understand?
    Contrarian understands all of that. What he is saying is despite the government presenting the vaccines as a silver bullet reasons will always be found for more lockdowns because the public/gov opponents/the media/the killjoys have a taste for it.

    I think Contrarian over-eggs it rather and I don`t accept that the government is addicted to authoritarian measures.
    Either it is a silver bullet or it isn't

    If it is we no longer need lockdowns and we can indeed set a timetable for exit.

    If vaccination isn't a silver bullet then why are they trumpeting it like it is?

    The only answer is surely that the government's strategy is containment.

    Get through today, get to tomorrow.
    Shouldn't the timetable be set by events?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    Pagan2 said:

    Stocky said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Chatting to my MP today, he is very clear about one thing: there can be no more lockdowns after these end. If that requires a little more caution on the dates we exit the current one, so be it.

    He's a very stupid MP then, and almost certainly trumpeting his own greatness.

    There will be as many lockdowns as it needs. I suspect though that there will be no more lockdowns, but he's right in the idea that we run this lockdown as long as is needed.
    Except that some new political parties will pledge never to have lockdowns again, whatever ills befall the British people.

    Perhaps that will be popular. Or not. We do not yet know.
    I can't see such a thing. The idea of basing a party on it is absurd.
    Reform and Reclaim will both campaign on No lockdown tickets in the spring. Reform have Great Barrington as a policy.

    Oh God. That may do more harm than good.
    I think this site, along with the media and the government enormously underestimates the suffering that lockdown has caused.

    I also think the site underestimates the extent to which traditional supporters of the main parties have seen their representatives in a new light. Labour calling for ever tighter restrictions and job destroying measures on their young voters. Conservatives spending like Corbynites and acting like authoritarian socialists.

    These insights may count one day. Or they may not. We don;t know yet.
    Lockdown is very popular for the following reasons:

    1. Widespread public fear of the virus on the one hand; on the other, the idea that if we stick it out for just a bit longer then the vaccines will finish the thing off and we can go back to normal
    2. Large numbers of working age people are yet to suffer because they're being paid most of their salary to do nothing via the furlough scheme
    3. Large numbers of old people (the key Tory demographic) spend most of their lives sat in front of the TV or shuffling to and from the supermarket, so they barely notice the difference anyway
    4. Much of the population are sanctimonious curtain-twitchers for whom moaning about the bad behaviour of others makes them feel really good

    Moreover, a large fraction of the people who are absolutely sick of it nonetheless regard it as a necessary evil, and/or something that they can do nothing about anyway.

    I don't think somehow that we're on the cusp of a revolution here.
    You missed 5)

    5) a lot of the country can't afford to drink in pubs or eat in restaurants or go on holidays foreign or otherwise so a life of staying at home watching tv occasionally going to the supermarket so they barely notice the difference anyway
    I think that`s a good point.

    Living life to the full, for me, means taking advantages of the freedoms and choices available in our (previously) wonderful liberal democracy. Those that didn`t make use of those freedoms for the reasons you state or for others (including simple lack of ambition/gumption): 1) don`t miss the freedoms they never had and 2) are relishing the ability to clip the wings of those that did.

    It`s very depressing.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    OT. I'm surprised nobody warned him before he took the job.....

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-56069642
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629
    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    More holiday questions.

    Of course.

    Millions of people want to escape this and go on holiday.

    The prior question was about support for people with mental health problems. Having clarity about holidays one way or another, and asking about when and if is a part of the normalisation of our lives and a coping mechanism for people who are suffering.

    Does it mean they are demanding holidays? Only JHB and Tobes. The rest are just willing for it all to be "ok" and these questions are part of it.

    Not everyone is as sanguine, wise, or has all the stats at their fingertips plus an informed view of the viral epidemiology.
    Where do they want to go, Israel?
    They are just scared, depressed, nervous, anxious. But for sure smartarse comments will help I'm sure.
    I'm genuinely curious where they are hoping to go? Perhaps a dose of realism is in order.
    Rob they want it all to be ok later in the year. Will it be? Who knows. But that is what people, in all their illogical, ignorant, misinformed glory want.

    And hence the press are articulating this.

    Both the questions and the answers are part of the coping mechanism.
    The journalist was asking about holidays in weeks, not months. They should simply get a grip and stop asking.
    I know we're all on PB but you do understand how human beings work, don't you?

    Not all as clever as you, obvs, but the lumpen proletariat are a funny lot.
    I honestly don't see how anyone, lumpen or not, benefits from false hope. There's plenty of good news coming in by the day, but foreign holidays are obviously going to be impractical for a while and there's no point in pretending otherwise.
    It's not false hope. It's a process. First, it means it is in the public domain and, as @Anabobazina points out, ensures that the government - and scientists - are aware that millions of people want them, somehow, to work towards getting them to be able to go on holiday as soon as possible.

    Secondly, by articulating it it is then out in the open. So "When can I go on holiday?" is met with "Not yet." that addresses directly peoples' concerns and helps them reconcile themselves with the situation.
    Well, God knows the country is in need of some collective reassurance and counselling during this thing. In the past, my concern was that that kind of pressure could lead to too quick a loosening for the sake of some easy popularity, but it looks as if the government have learned that lesson this time around.
    Except that this approach contradicts the government's own narrative.

    Look at our wonderful vaccines!

    Careful they may NOT protect you! that's why we still need lockdown!!

    No it doesn't. Why do you keep peddling something you don't understand?

    1. The vaccines don't protect EVERYBODY, although they do protect most people.
    2. Not everyone is vaccinated.
    3. Time is needed after vaccination to build immunity.

    Which part of this don't you understand?
    Contrarian understands all of that. What he is saying is despite the government presenting the vaccines as a silver bullet reasons will always be found for more lockdowns because the public/gov opponents/the media/the killjoys have a taste for it.

    I think Contrarian over-eggs it rather and I don`t accept that the government is addicted to authoritarian measures.
    Either it is a silver bullet or it isn't

    If it is we no longer need lockdowns and we can indeed set a timetable for exit.

    If vaccination isn't a silver bullet then why are they trumpeting it like it is?

    The only answer is surely that the government's strategy is containment.

    Get through today, get to tomorrow.
    Shouldn't the timetable be set by events?
    He believes his right to go out as he pleases and spread covid is inhibited is all he wants to be typhoid contrarian
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    More holiday questions.

    Of course.

    Millions of people want to escape this and go on holiday.

    The prior question was about support for people with mental health problems. Having clarity about holidays one way or another, and asking about when and if is a part of the normalisation of our lives and a coping mechanism for people who are suffering.

    Does it mean they are demanding holidays? Only JHB and Tobes. The rest are just willing for it all to be "ok" and these questions are part of it.

    Not everyone is as sanguine, wise, or has all the stats at their fingertips plus an informed view of the viral epidemiology.
    Where do they want to go, Israel?
    They are just scared, depressed, nervous, anxious. But for sure smartarse comments will help I'm sure.
    I'm genuinely curious where they are hoping to go? Perhaps a dose of realism is in order.
    Rob they want it all to be ok later in the year. Will it be? Who knows. But that is what people, in all their illogical, ignorant, misinformed glory want.

    And hence the press are articulating this.

    Both the questions and the answers are part of the coping mechanism.
    The journalist was asking about holidays in weeks, not months. They should simply get a grip and stop asking.
    I know we're all on PB but you do understand how human beings work, don't you?

    Not all as clever as you, obvs, but the lumpen proletariat are a funny lot.
    I honestly don't see how anyone, lumpen or not, benefits from false hope. There's plenty of good news coming in by the day, but foreign holidays are obviously going to be impractical for a while and there's no point in pretending otherwise.
    It's not false hope. It's a process. First, it means it is in the public domain and, as @Anabobazina points out, ensures that the government - and scientists - are aware that millions of people want them, somehow, to work towards getting them to be able to go on holiday as soon as possible.

    Secondly, by articulating it it is then out in the open. So "When can I go on holiday?" is met with "Not yet." that addresses directly peoples' concerns and helps them reconcile themselves with the situation.
    Well, God knows the country is in need of some collective reassurance and counselling during this thing. In the past, my concern was that that kind of pressure could lead to too quick a loosening for the sake of some easy popularity, but it looks as if the government have learned that lesson this time around.
    Except that this approach contradicts the government's own narrative.

    Look at our wonderful vaccines!

    Careful they may NOT protect you! that's why we still need lockdown!!

    No it doesn't. Why do you keep peddling something you don't understand?

    1. The vaccines don't protect EVERYBODY, although they do protect most people.
    2. Not everyone is vaccinated.
    3. Time is needed after vaccination to build immunity.

    Which part of this don't you understand?
    Contrarian understands all of that. What he is saying is despite the government presenting the vaccines as a silver bullet reasons will always be found for more lockdowns because the public/gov opponents/the media/the killjoys have a taste for it.

    I think Contrarian over-eggs it rather and I don`t accept that the government is addicted to authoritarian measures.
    Either it is a silver bullet or it isn't

    If it is we no longer need lockdowns and we can indeed set a timetable for exit.

    If vaccination isn't a silver bullet then why are they trumpeting it like it is?

    The only answer is surely that the government's strategy is containment.

    Get through today, get to tomorrow.
    Shouldn't the timetable be set by events?
    Yes but those who object to the current policy on principle and/or legality (e.g. Sumption) will oppose regardless of events.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited February 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    More holiday questions.

    Of course.

    Millions of people want to escape this and go on holiday.

    The prior question was about support for people with mental health problems. Having clarity about holidays one way or another, and asking about when and if is a part of the normalisation of our lives and a coping mechanism for people who are suffering.

    Does it mean they are demanding holidays? Only JHB and Tobes. The rest are just willing for it all to be "ok" and these questions are part of it.

    Not everyone is as sanguine, wise, or has all the stats at their fingertips plus an informed view of the viral epidemiology.
    Where do they want to go, Israel?
    They are just scared, depressed, nervous, anxious. But for sure smartarse comments will help I'm sure.
    I'm genuinely curious where they are hoping to go? Perhaps a dose of realism is in order.
    Rob they want it all to be ok later in the year. Will it be? Who knows. But that is what people, in all their illogical, ignorant, misinformed glory want.

    And hence the press are articulating this.

    Both the questions and the answers are part of the coping mechanism.
    The journalist was asking about holidays in weeks, not months. They should simply get a grip and stop asking.
    I know we're all on PB but you do understand how human beings work, don't you?

    Not all as clever as you, obvs, but the lumpen proletariat are a funny lot.
    I honestly don't see how anyone, lumpen or not, benefits from false hope. There's plenty of good news coming in by the day, but foreign holidays are obviously going to be impractical for a while and there's no point in pretending otherwise.
    It's not false hope. It's a process. First, it means it is in the public domain and, as @Anabobazina points out, ensures that the government - and scientists - are aware that millions of people want them, somehow, to work towards getting them to be able to go on holiday as soon as possible.

    Secondly, by articulating it it is then out in the open. So "When can I go on holiday?" is met with "Not yet." that addresses directly peoples' concerns and helps them reconcile themselves with the situation.
    Well, God knows the country is in need of some collective reassurance and counselling during this thing. In the past, my concern was that that kind of pressure could lead to too quick a loosening for the sake of some easy popularity, but it looks as if the government have learned that lesson this time around.
    Except that this approach contradicts the government's own narrative.

    Look at our wonderful vaccines!

    Careful they may NOT protect you! that's why we still need lockdown!!

    No it doesn't. Why do you keep peddling something you don't understand?

    1. The vaccines don't protect EVERYBODY, although they do protect most people.
    2. Not everyone is vaccinated.
    3. Time is needed after vaccination to build immunity.

    Which part of this don't you understand?
    Contrarian understands all of that. What he is saying is despite the government presenting the vaccines as a silver bullet reasons will always be found for more lockdowns because the public/gov opponents/the media/the killjoys have a taste for it.

    I think Contrarian over-eggs it rather and I don`t accept that the government is addicted to authoritarian measures.
    Either it is a silver bullet or it isn't

    If it is we no longer need lockdowns and we can indeed set a timetable for exit.

    If vaccination isn't a silver bullet then why are they trumpeting it like it is?

    The only answer is surely that the government's strategy is containment.

    Get through today, get to tomorrow.
    Shouldn't the timetable be set by events?
    Yes. Hospitalisations and deaths. What if, as the PM and the medicos were saying today, the timetable is set by just in case. Just in case new variants emerge. Just in case cases spike. Just in case the vaccine is not effective. Just in case...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    What a shit Sir Andrew Murray and his brother are.

    Judy Murray has revealed that she had a £4,500 non-surgical facelift after her sons, the tennis champions, teased her about having “turkey neck”.

    The 61-year-old tennis coach said that years training outside and watching her sons compete in the sun had left her skin wrinkly.

    “My kids, Jamie and Andy, started to call me turkey neck a few years ago in a loving and jokey way,” she said in a talk released by her cosmetic doctor. “That may have had something to do with me thinking I really should do something about this if I can.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/judy-murray-facelift-andy-fp5pm5vb2?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1613409425

    Like either of those two are oil paintings!
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629
    Stocky said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Stocky said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Chatting to my MP today, he is very clear about one thing: there can be no more lockdowns after these end. If that requires a little more caution on the dates we exit the current one, so be it.

    He's a very stupid MP then, and almost certainly trumpeting his own greatness.

    There will be as many lockdowns as it needs. I suspect though that there will be no more lockdowns, but he's right in the idea that we run this lockdown as long as is needed.
    Except that some new political parties will pledge never to have lockdowns again, whatever ills befall the British people.

    Perhaps that will be popular. Or not. We do not yet know.
    I can't see such a thing. The idea of basing a party on it is absurd.
    Reform and Reclaim will both campaign on No lockdown tickets in the spring. Reform have Great Barrington as a policy.

    Oh God. That may do more harm than good.
    I think this site, along with the media and the government enormously underestimates the suffering that lockdown has caused.

    I also think the site underestimates the extent to which traditional supporters of the main parties have seen their representatives in a new light. Labour calling for ever tighter restrictions and job destroying measures on their young voters. Conservatives spending like Corbynites and acting like authoritarian socialists.

    These insights may count one day. Or they may not. We don;t know yet.
    Lockdown is very popular for the following reasons:

    1. Widespread public fear of the virus on the one hand; on the other, the idea that if we stick it out for just a bit longer then the vaccines will finish the thing off and we can go back to normal
    2. Large numbers of working age people are yet to suffer because they're being paid most of their salary to do nothing via the furlough scheme
    3. Large numbers of old people (the key Tory demographic) spend most of their lives sat in front of the TV or shuffling to and from the supermarket, so they barely notice the difference anyway
    4. Much of the population are sanctimonious curtain-twitchers for whom moaning about the bad behaviour of others makes them feel really good

    Moreover, a large fraction of the people who are absolutely sick of it nonetheless regard it as a necessary evil, and/or something that they can do nothing about anyway.

    I don't think somehow that we're on the cusp of a revolution here.
    You missed 5)

    5) a lot of the country can't afford to drink in pubs or eat in restaurants or go on holidays foreign or otherwise so a life of staying at home watching tv occasionally going to the supermarket so they barely notice the difference anyway
    I think that`s a good point.

    Living life to the full, for me, means taking advantages of the freedoms and choices available in our (previously) wonderful liberal democracy. Those that didn`t make use of those freedoms for the reasons you state or for others (including simple lack of ambition/gumption): 1) don`t miss the freedoms they never had and 2) are relishing the ability to clip the wings of those that did.

    It`s very depressing.
    Well I am very much in the dont go on holidays/pub/restaurant crowd as part of my normal life. However I have argued in the past on here that the cost of lives saved is becoming extreme. I would still much rather that people can do those things. I do however think currently that we shouldn't unlock to we are sure we wont need to do it again. Sunk cost fallacy maybe
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    Restaurants might be closed, but we are swapping food cooked by neighbours. One of them left us a world-class fish curry last week. We have responded by dropping them off a duck and sausage cassoulet with a chocolate and orange mousse (Raymond Blanc's mother's recipe....).

    We are coping.

    I think this posting might be Peak pb.com. :)
    provisionsbartering.com?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629
    Roger said:

    What a shit Sir Andrew Murray and his brother are.

    Judy Murray has revealed that she had a £4,500 non-surgical facelift after her sons, the tennis champions, teased her about having “turkey neck”.

    The 61-year-old tennis coach said that years training outside and watching her sons compete in the sun had left her skin wrinkly.

    “My kids, Jamie and Andy, started to call me turkey neck a few years ago in a loving and jokey way,” she said in a talk released by her cosmetic doctor. “That may have had something to do with me thinking I really should do something about this if I can.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/judy-murray-facelift-andy-fp5pm5vb2?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1613409425

    Like either of those two are oil paintings!
    Maybe you should not be so judgemental without showing what an oil painting you are yourself
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,054

    What a shit Sir Andrew Murray and his brother are.

    Judy Murray has revealed that she had a £4,500 non-surgical facelift after her sons, the tennis champions, teased her about having “turkey neck”.

    The 61-year-old tennis coach said that years training outside and watching her sons compete in the sun had left her skin wrinkly.

    “My kids, Jamie and Andy, started to call me turkey neck a few years ago in a loving and jokey way,” she said in a talk released by her cosmetic doctor. “That may have had something to do with me thinking I really should do something about this if I can.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/judy-murray-facelift-andy-fp5pm5vb2?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1613409425

    Must be a barrel of laughs around their dinner table!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    More holiday questions.

    Of course.

    Millions of people want to escape this and go on holiday.

    The prior question was about support for people with mental health problems. Having clarity about holidays one way or another, and asking about when and if is a part of the normalisation of our lives and a coping mechanism for people who are suffering.

    Does it mean they are demanding holidays? Only JHB and Tobes. The rest are just willing for it all to be "ok" and these questions are part of it.

    Not everyone is as sanguine, wise, or has all the stats at their fingertips plus an informed view of the viral epidemiology.
    Where do they want to go, Israel?
    They are just scared, depressed, nervous, anxious. But for sure smartarse comments will help I'm sure.
    I'm genuinely curious where they are hoping to go? Perhaps a dose of realism is in order.
    Rob they want it all to be ok later in the year. Will it be? Who knows. But that is what people, in all their illogical, ignorant, misinformed glory want.

    And hence the press are articulating this.

    Both the questions and the answers are part of the coping mechanism.
    The journalist was asking about holidays in weeks, not months. They should simply get a grip and stop asking.
    I know we're all on PB but you do understand how human beings work, don't you?

    Not all as clever as you, obvs, but the lumpen proletariat are a funny lot.
    I honestly don't see how anyone, lumpen or not, benefits from false hope. There's plenty of good news coming in by the day, but foreign holidays are obviously going to be impractical for a while and there's no point in pretending otherwise.
    It's not false hope. It's a process. First, it means it is in the public domain and, as @Anabobazina points out, ensures that the government - and scientists - are aware that millions of people want them, somehow, to work towards getting them to be able to go on holiday as soon as possible.

    Secondly, by articulating it it is then out in the open. So "When can I go on holiday?" is met with "Not yet." that addresses directly peoples' concerns and helps them reconcile themselves with the situation.
    Well, God knows the country is in need of some collective reassurance and counselling during this thing. In the past, my concern was that that kind of pressure could lead to too quick a loosening for the sake of some easy popularity, but it looks as if the government have learned that lesson this time around.
    Except that this approach contradicts the government's own narrative.

    Look at our wonderful vaccines!

    Careful they may NOT protect you! that's why we still need lockdown!!

    No it doesn't. Why do you keep peddling something you don't understand?

    1. The vaccines don't protect EVERYBODY, although they do protect most people.
    2. Not everyone is vaccinated.
    3. Time is needed after vaccination to build immunity.

    Which part of this don't you understand?
    Contrarian understands all of that. What he is saying is despite the government presenting the vaccines as a silver bullet reasons will always be found for more lockdowns because the public/gov opponents/the media/the killjoys have a taste for it.

    I think Contrarian over-eggs it rather and I don`t accept that the government is addicted to authoritarian measures.
    Either it is a silver bullet or it isn't

    If it is we no longer need lockdowns and we can indeed set a timetable for exit.

    If vaccination isn't a silver bullet then why are they trumpeting it like it is?

    The only answer is surely that the government's strategy is containment.

    Get through today, get to tomorrow.
    Shouldn't the timetable be set by events?
    Yes. Hospitalisations and deaths. What if, as they were saying today, the timetable is set by just in case. Just in case new variants emerge. Just in case cases spike. Just in case the vaccine is not effective. Just in case...
    They can`t restrict liberties "just on case". It would be a contravention (arguably?) of the Coronavirus Act 2020 , as I linked to earlier:

    www.lawgazette.co.uk/legal-updates/why-did-government-not-use-the-civil-contingencies-act/5103742.article
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    rcs1000 said:

    Restaurants might be closed, but we are swapping food cooked by neighbours. One of them left us a world-class fish curry last week. We have responded by dropping them off a duck and sausage cassoulet with a chocolate and orange mousse (Raymond Blanc's mother's recipe....).

    We are coping.

    I think this posting might be Peak pb.com. :)
    provisionsbartering.com?
    Rarified food and/or drink. Plus a name drop. A full house for PB.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    More holiday questions.

    Of course.

    Millions of people want to escape this and go on holiday.

    The prior question was about support for people with mental health problems. Having clarity about holidays one way or another, and asking about when and if is a part of the normalisation of our lives and a coping mechanism for people who are suffering.

    Does it mean they are demanding holidays? Only JHB and Tobes. The rest are just willing for it all to be "ok" and these questions are part of it.

    Not everyone is as sanguine, wise, or has all the stats at their fingertips plus an informed view of the viral epidemiology.
    Where do they want to go, Israel?
    They are just scared, depressed, nervous, anxious. But for sure smartarse comments will help I'm sure.
    I'm genuinely curious where they are hoping to go? Perhaps a dose of realism is in order.
    Rob they want it all to be ok later in the year. Will it be? Who knows. But that is what people, in all their illogical, ignorant, misinformed glory want.

    And hence the press are articulating this.

    Both the questions and the answers are part of the coping mechanism.
    The journalist was asking about holidays in weeks, not months. They should simply get a grip and stop asking.
    I know we're all on PB but you do understand how human beings work, don't you?

    Not all as clever as you, obvs, but the lumpen proletariat are a funny lot.
    I honestly don't see how anyone, lumpen or not, benefits from false hope. There's plenty of good news coming in by the day, but foreign holidays are obviously going to be impractical for a while and there's no point in pretending otherwise.
    It's not false hope. It's a process. First, it means it is in the public domain and, as @Anabobazina points out, ensures that the government - and scientists - are aware that millions of people want them, somehow, to work towards getting them to be able to go on holiday as soon as possible.

    Secondly, by articulating it it is then out in the open. So "When can I go on holiday?" is met with "Not yet." that addresses directly peoples' concerns and helps them reconcile themselves with the situation.
    Well, God knows the country is in need of some collective reassurance and counselling during this thing. In the past, my concern was that that kind of pressure could lead to too quick a loosening for the sake of some easy popularity, but it looks as if the government have learned that lesson this time around.
    Except that this approach contradicts the government's own narrative.

    Look at our wonderful vaccines!

    Careful they may NOT protect you! that's why we still need lockdown!!

    No it doesn't. Why do you keep peddling something you don't understand?

    1. The vaccines don't protect EVERYBODY, although they do protect most people.
    2. Not everyone is vaccinated.
    3. Time is needed after vaccination to build immunity.

    Which part of this don't you understand?
    Contrarian understands all of that. What he is saying is despite the government presenting the vaccines as a silver bullet reasons will always be found for more lockdowns because the public/gov opponents/the media/the killjoys have a taste for it.

    I think Contrarian over-eggs it rather and I don`t accept that the government is addicted to authoritarian measures.
    Either it is a silver bullet or it isn't

    If it is we no longer need lockdowns and we can indeed set a timetable for exit.

    If vaccination isn't a silver bullet then why are they trumpeting it like it is?

    The only answer is surely that the government's strategy is containment.

    Get through today, get to tomorrow.
    Shouldn't the timetable be set by events?
    Yes. Hospitalisations and deaths. What if, as they were saying today, the timetable is set by just in case. Just in case new variants emerge. Just in case cases spike. Just in case the vaccine is not effective. Just in case...
    They can`t restrict liberties "just on case". It would be a contravention (arguably?) of the Coronavirus Act 2020 , as I linked to earlier:

    www.lawgazette.co.uk/legal-updates/why-did-government-not-use-the-civil-contingencies-act/5103742.article
    That was a good article. But watch them try.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    More holiday questions.

    Of course.

    Millions of people want to escape this and go on holiday.

    The prior question was about support for people with mental health problems. Having clarity about holidays one way or another, and asking about when and if is a part of the normalisation of our lives and a coping mechanism for people who are suffering.

    Does it mean they are demanding holidays? Only JHB and Tobes. The rest are just willing for it all to be "ok" and these questions are part of it.

    Not everyone is as sanguine, wise, or has all the stats at their fingertips plus an informed view of the viral epidemiology.
    Where do they want to go, Israel?
    They are just scared, depressed, nervous, anxious. But for sure smartarse comments will help I'm sure.
    I'm genuinely curious where they are hoping to go? Perhaps a dose of realism is in order.
    Rob they want it all to be ok later in the year. Will it be? Who knows. But that is what people, in all their illogical, ignorant, misinformed glory want.

    And hence the press are articulating this.

    Both the questions and the answers are part of the coping mechanism.
    The journalist was asking about holidays in weeks, not months. They should simply get a grip and stop asking.
    I know we're all on PB but you do understand how human beings work, don't you?

    Not all as clever as you, obvs, but the lumpen proletariat are a funny lot.
    I honestly don't see how anyone, lumpen or not, benefits from false hope. There's plenty of good news coming in by the day, but foreign holidays are obviously going to be impractical for a while and there's no point in pretending otherwise.
    It's not false hope. It's a process. First, it means it is in the public domain and, as @Anabobazina points out, ensures that the government - and scientists - are aware that millions of people want them, somehow, to work towards getting them to be able to go on holiday as soon as possible.

    Secondly, by articulating it it is then out in the open. So "When can I go on holiday?" is met with "Not yet." that addresses directly peoples' concerns and helps them reconcile themselves with the situation.
    Well, God knows the country is in need of some collective reassurance and counselling during this thing. In the past, my concern was that that kind of pressure could lead to too quick a loosening for the sake of some easy popularity, but it looks as if the government have learned that lesson this time around.
    Except that this approach contradicts the government's own narrative.

    Look at our wonderful vaccines!

    Careful they may NOT protect you! that's why we still need lockdown!!

    No it doesn't. Why do you keep peddling something you don't understand?

    1. The vaccines don't protect EVERYBODY, although they do protect most people.
    2. Not everyone is vaccinated.
    3. Time is needed after vaccination to build immunity.

    Which part of this don't you understand?
    Contrarian understands all of that. What he is saying is despite the government presenting the vaccines as a silver bullet reasons will always be found for more lockdowns because the public/gov opponents/the media/the killjoys have a taste for it.

    I think Contrarian over-eggs it rather and I don`t accept that the government is addicted to authoritarian measures.
    Either it is a silver bullet or it isn't

    If it is we no longer need lockdowns and we can indeed set a timetable for exit.

    If vaccination isn't a silver bullet then why are they trumpeting it like it is?

    The only answer is surely that the government's strategy is containment.

    Get through today, get to tomorrow.
    Shouldn't the timetable be set by events?
    Vaccinations are events aren't they?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    More holiday questions.

    Of course.

    Millions of people want to escape this and go on holiday.

    The prior question was about support for people with mental health problems. Having clarity about holidays one way or another, and asking about when and if is a part of the normalisation of our lives and a coping mechanism for people who are suffering.

    Does it mean they are demanding holidays? Only JHB and Tobes. The rest are just willing for it all to be "ok" and these questions are part of it.

    Not everyone is as sanguine, wise, or has all the stats at their fingertips plus an informed view of the viral epidemiology.
    Where do they want to go, Israel?
    They are just scared, depressed, nervous, anxious. But for sure smartarse comments will help I'm sure.
    I'm genuinely curious where they are hoping to go? Perhaps a dose of realism is in order.
    Rob they want it all to be ok later in the year. Will it be? Who knows. But that is what people, in all their illogical, ignorant, misinformed glory want.

    And hence the press are articulating this.

    Both the questions and the answers are part of the coping mechanism.
    The journalist was asking about holidays in weeks, not months. They should simply get a grip and stop asking.
    I know we're all on PB but you do understand how human beings work, don't you?

    Not all as clever as you, obvs, but the lumpen proletariat are a funny lot.
    I honestly don't see how anyone, lumpen or not, benefits from false hope. There's plenty of good news coming in by the day, but foreign holidays are obviously going to be impractical for a while and there's no point in pretending otherwise.
    It's not false hope. It's a process. First, it means it is in the public domain and, as @Anabobazina points out, ensures that the government - and scientists - are aware that millions of people want them, somehow, to work towards getting them to be able to go on holiday as soon as possible.

    Secondly, by articulating it it is then out in the open. So "When can I go on holiday?" is met with "Not yet." that addresses directly peoples' concerns and helps them reconcile themselves with the situation.
    Well, God knows the country is in need of some collective reassurance and counselling during this thing. In the past, my concern was that that kind of pressure could lead to too quick a loosening for the sake of some easy popularity, but it looks as if the government have learned that lesson this time around.
    Except that this approach contradicts the government's own narrative.

    Look at our wonderful vaccines!

    Careful they may NOT protect you! that's why we still need lockdown!!

    No it doesn't. Why do you keep peddling something you don't understand?

    1. The vaccines don't protect EVERYBODY, although they do protect most people.
    2. Not everyone is vaccinated.
    3. Time is needed after vaccination to build immunity.

    Which part of this don't you understand?
    Contrarian understands all of that. What he is saying is despite the government presenting the vaccines as a silver bullet reasons will always be found for more lockdowns because the public/gov opponents/the media/the killjoys have a taste for it.

    I think Contrarian over-eggs it rather and I don`t accept that the government is addicted to authoritarian measures.
    Either it is a silver bullet or it isn't

    If it is we no longer need lockdowns and we can indeed set a timetable for exit.

    If vaccination isn't a silver bullet then why are they trumpeting it like it is?

    The only answer is surely that the government's strategy is containment.

    Get through today, get to tomorrow.
    Shouldn't the timetable be set by events?
    Vaccinations are events aren't they?
    Not events merely points
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    More holiday questions.

    Of course.

    Millions of people want to escape this and go on holiday.

    The prior question was about support for people with mental health problems. Having clarity about holidays one way or another, and asking about when and if is a part of the normalisation of our lives and a coping mechanism for people who are suffering.

    Does it mean they are demanding holidays? Only JHB and Tobes. The rest are just willing for it all to be "ok" and these questions are part of it.

    Not everyone is as sanguine, wise, or has all the stats at their fingertips plus an informed view of the viral epidemiology.
    Where do they want to go, Israel?
    They are just scared, depressed, nervous, anxious. But for sure smartarse comments will help I'm sure.
    I'm genuinely curious where they are hoping to go? Perhaps a dose of realism is in order.
    Rob they want it all to be ok later in the year. Will it be? Who knows. But that is what people, in all their illogical, ignorant, misinformed glory want.

    And hence the press are articulating this.

    Both the questions and the answers are part of the coping mechanism.
    The journalist was asking about holidays in weeks, not months. They should simply get a grip and stop asking.
    I know we're all on PB but you do understand how human beings work, don't you?

    Not all as clever as you, obvs, but the lumpen proletariat are a funny lot.
    I honestly don't see how anyone, lumpen or not, benefits from false hope. There's plenty of good news coming in by the day, but foreign holidays are obviously going to be impractical for a while and there's no point in pretending otherwise.
    It's not false hope. It's a process. First, it means it is in the public domain and, as @Anabobazina points out, ensures that the government - and scientists - are aware that millions of people want them, somehow, to work towards getting them to be able to go on holiday as soon as possible.

    Secondly, by articulating it it is then out in the open. So "When can I go on holiday?" is met with "Not yet." that addresses directly peoples' concerns and helps them reconcile themselves with the situation.
    Well, God knows the country is in need of some collective reassurance and counselling during this thing. In the past, my concern was that that kind of pressure could lead to too quick a loosening for the sake of some easy popularity, but it looks as if the government have learned that lesson this time around.
    Except that this approach contradicts the government's own narrative.

    Look at our wonderful vaccines!

    Careful they may NOT protect you! that's why we still need lockdown!!

    No it doesn't. Why do you keep peddling something you don't understand?

    1. The vaccines don't protect EVERYBODY, although they do protect most people.
    2. Not everyone is vaccinated.
    3. Time is needed after vaccination to build immunity.

    Which part of this don't you understand?
    Contrarian understands all of that. What he is saying is despite the government presenting the vaccines as a silver bullet reasons will always be found for more lockdowns because the public/gov opponents/the media/the killjoys have a taste for it.

    I think Contrarian over-eggs it rather and I don`t accept that the government is addicted to authoritarian measures.
    Either it is a silver bullet or it isn't

    If it is we no longer need lockdowns and we can indeed set a timetable for exit.

    If vaccination isn't a silver bullet then why are they trumpeting it like it is?

    The only answer is surely that the government's strategy is containment.

    Get through today, get to tomorrow.
    Shouldn't the timetable be set by events?
    Vaccinations are events aren't they?
    Hospital numbers are the only real measure that matter in the long term. If we can turn this into something where only a few hundred people end up in hospital over each winter because they've refused a booster shot then it's the end state. We need to have the whole economy reopened and international travel with vaccine passports reopened as well to countries in a similar state of affairs.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    More holiday questions.

    Of course.

    Millions of people want to escape this and go on holiday.

    The prior question was about support for people with mental health problems. Having clarity about holidays one way or another, and asking about when and if is a part of the normalisation of our lives and a coping mechanism for people who are suffering.

    Does it mean they are demanding holidays? Only JHB and Tobes. The rest are just willing for it all to be "ok" and these questions are part of it.

    Not everyone is as sanguine, wise, or has all the stats at their fingertips plus an informed view of the viral epidemiology.
    Where do they want to go, Israel?
    They are just scared, depressed, nervous, anxious. But for sure smartarse comments will help I'm sure.
    I'm genuinely curious where they are hoping to go? Perhaps a dose of realism is in order.
    Rob they want it all to be ok later in the year. Will it be? Who knows. But that is what people, in all their illogical, ignorant, misinformed glory want.

    And hence the press are articulating this.

    Both the questions and the answers are part of the coping mechanism.
    The journalist was asking about holidays in weeks, not months. They should simply get a grip and stop asking.
    I know we're all on PB but you do understand how human beings work, don't you?

    Not all as clever as you, obvs, but the lumpen proletariat are a funny lot.
    I honestly don't see how anyone, lumpen or not, benefits from false hope. There's plenty of good news coming in by the day, but foreign holidays are obviously going to be impractical for a while and there's no point in pretending otherwise.
    It's not false hope. It's a process. First, it means it is in the public domain and, as @Anabobazina points out, ensures that the government - and scientists - are aware that millions of people want them, somehow, to work towards getting them to be able to go on holiday as soon as possible.

    Secondly, by articulating it it is then out in the open. So "When can I go on holiday?" is met with "Not yet." that addresses directly peoples' concerns and helps them reconcile themselves with the situation.
    Well, God knows the country is in need of some collective reassurance and counselling during this thing. In the past, my concern was that that kind of pressure could lead to too quick a loosening for the sake of some easy popularity, but it looks as if the government have learned that lesson this time around.
    Except that this approach contradicts the government's own narrative.

    Look at our wonderful vaccines!

    Careful they may NOT protect you! that's why we still need lockdown!!

    No it doesn't. Why do you keep peddling something you don't understand?

    1. The vaccines don't protect EVERYBODY, although they do protect most people.
    2. Not everyone is vaccinated.
    3. Time is needed after vaccination to build immunity.

    Which part of this don't you understand?
    Contrarian understands all of that. What he is saying is despite the government presenting the vaccines as a silver bullet reasons will always be found for more lockdowns because the public/gov opponents/the media/the killjoys have a taste for it.

    I think Contrarian over-eggs it rather and I don`t accept that the government is addicted to authoritarian measures.
    Either it is a silver bullet or it isn't

    If it is we no longer need lockdowns and we can indeed set a timetable for exit.

    If vaccination isn't a silver bullet then why are they trumpeting it like it is?

    The only answer is surely that the government's strategy is containment.

    Get through today, get to tomorrow.
    Shouldn't the timetable be set by events?
    Vaccinations are events aren't they?
    Hospital numbers are the only real measure that matter in the long term. If we can turn this into something where only a few hundred people end up in hospital over each winter because they've refused a booster shot then it's the end state. We need to have the whole economy reopened and international travel with vaccine passports reopened as well to countries in a similar state of affairs.
    The thing I find most amusing is most of those that are whining about foreign holidays are the same ones that will turn round and whine about climate change, especially it seems amongst the guardinista's
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    More holiday questions.

    Of course.

    Millions of people want to escape this and go on holiday.

    The prior question was about support for people with mental health problems. Having clarity about holidays one way or another, and asking about when and if is a part of the normalisation of our lives and a coping mechanism for people who are suffering.

    Does it mean they are demanding holidays? Only JHB and Tobes. The rest are just willing for it all to be "ok" and these questions are part of it.

    Not everyone is as sanguine, wise, or has all the stats at their fingertips plus an informed view of the viral epidemiology.
    Where do they want to go, Israel?
    They are just scared, depressed, nervous, anxious. But for sure smartarse comments will help I'm sure.
    I'm genuinely curious where they are hoping to go? Perhaps a dose of realism is in order.
    Rob they want it all to be ok later in the year. Will it be? Who knows. But that is what people, in all their illogical, ignorant, misinformed glory want.

    And hence the press are articulating this.

    Both the questions and the answers are part of the coping mechanism.
    The journalist was asking about holidays in weeks, not months. They should simply get a grip and stop asking.
    I know we're all on PB but you do understand how human beings work, don't you?

    Not all as clever as you, obvs, but the lumpen proletariat are a funny lot.
    I honestly don't see how anyone, lumpen or not, benefits from false hope. There's plenty of good news coming in by the day, but foreign holidays are obviously going to be impractical for a while and there's no point in pretending otherwise.
    It's not false hope. It's a process. First, it means it is in the public domain and, as @Anabobazina points out, ensures that the government - and scientists - are aware that millions of people want them, somehow, to work towards getting them to be able to go on holiday as soon as possible.

    Secondly, by articulating it it is then out in the open. So "When can I go on holiday?" is met with "Not yet." that addresses directly peoples' concerns and helps them reconcile themselves with the situation.
    Well, God knows the country is in need of some collective reassurance and counselling during this thing. In the past, my concern was that that kind of pressure could lead to too quick a loosening for the sake of some easy popularity, but it looks as if the government have learned that lesson this time around.
    Except that this approach contradicts the government's own narrative.

    Look at our wonderful vaccines!

    Careful they may NOT protect you! that's why we still need lockdown!!

    No it doesn't. Why do you keep peddling something you don't understand?

    1. The vaccines don't protect EVERYBODY, although they do protect most people.
    2. Not everyone is vaccinated.
    3. Time is needed after vaccination to build immunity.

    Which part of this don't you understand?
    Contrarian understands all of that. What he is saying is despite the government presenting the vaccines as a silver bullet reasons will always be found for more lockdowns because the public/gov opponents/the media/the killjoys have a taste for it.

    I think Contrarian over-eggs it rather and I don`t accept that the government is addicted to authoritarian measures.
    Either it is a silver bullet or it isn't

    If it is we no longer need lockdowns and we can indeed set a timetable for exit.

    If vaccination isn't a silver bullet then why are they trumpeting it like it is?

    The only answer is surely that the government's strategy is containment.

    Get through today, get to tomorrow.
    Shouldn't the timetable be set by events?
    Yes. Hospitalisations and deaths. What if, as the PM and the medicos were saying today, the timetable is set by just in case. Just in case new variants emerge. Just in case cases spike. Just in case the vaccine is not effective. Just in case...
    Completely agree. If 100k people per day are testing positive but only 10 people per day are going to hospital for it then there's no need for lockdown. We can't allow for this idea of zero COVID to take off. We need to aim to minimise hospitalisation and death from it, nothing more than that.
    I think Hancock knocked Zero Covid on the head the other week and the recent outbreaks in NZ and Aus have demonstrated the impossibility of the idea even there.

    Ferguson, the man whose modelling sent us into the first lockdown, has gone on record to say he is optimistic and he's still on NERVTAG. Ultimately, unless you believe in a global conspiracy we will be driven in part by what happens elsewhere. For example, if Tokyo runs an Olympic Games that results in a devastating second wave we won't have any spectators back in stadiums for the forseeable. However, if the games go without much of a hitch, then expect pressure to build here. I am confident that there will be crowds at US college and NFL football come September, similarly that will inform the debate about crowds in the Premier League.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Pulpstar said:

    Key workers May

    Overstating her importance, I fear.
  • Restaurants might be closed, but we are swapping food cooked by neighbours. One of them left us a world-class fish curry last week. We have responded by dropping them off a duck and sausage cassoulet with a chocolate and orange mousse (Raymond Blanc's mother's recipe....).

    We are coping.

    I think this posting might be Peak pb.com. :)
    Peak PB would have been Raymond Blanc’s mummy dropping off the mousse herself..
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629

    Restaurants might be closed, but we are swapping food cooked by neighbours. One of them left us a world-class fish curry last week. We have responded by dropping them off a duck and sausage cassoulet with a chocolate and orange mousse (Raymond Blanc's mother's recipe....).

    We are coping.

    I think this posting might be Peak pb.com. :)
    Peak PB would have been Raymond Blanc’s mummy dropping off the mousse herself..
    Are you claiming Raymond blanc embalms women?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812


    The voices crusading against higher Tiers (The "Lockdown Sceptics," Toby Young, Allison Pearson, Julia Hartley-Brewer, Peter Hitchens, James Delingpole, Ivor Cummins, Michael Yeadon, David Paton, the CRG on the backbenches) ... they got their wish.
    And they ended up condemning us to all this bloody lockdown.

    Good post but you forgot Sunetra Gupta, the Barrington Declaration, Rishi Sunak, and ultimately, Boris Johnson.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    More holiday questions.

    Of course.

    Millions of people want to escape this and go on holiday.

    The prior question was about support for people with mental health problems. Having clarity about holidays one way or another, and asking about when and if is a part of the normalisation of our lives and a coping mechanism for people who are suffering.

    Does it mean they are demanding holidays? Only JHB and Tobes. The rest are just willing for it all to be "ok" and these questions are part of it.

    Not everyone is as sanguine, wise, or has all the stats at their fingertips plus an informed view of the viral epidemiology.
    Where do they want to go, Israel?
    They are just scared, depressed, nervous, anxious. But for sure smartarse comments will help I'm sure.
    I'm genuinely curious where they are hoping to go? Perhaps a dose of realism is in order.
    Rob they want it all to be ok later in the year. Will it be? Who knows. But that is what people, in all their illogical, ignorant, misinformed glory want.

    And hence the press are articulating this.

    Both the questions and the answers are part of the coping mechanism.
    The journalist was asking about holidays in weeks, not months. They should simply get a grip and stop asking.
    I know we're all on PB but you do understand how human beings work, don't you?

    Not all as clever as you, obvs, but the lumpen proletariat are a funny lot.
    I honestly don't see how anyone, lumpen or not, benefits from false hope. There's plenty of good news coming in by the day, but foreign holidays are obviously going to be impractical for a while and there's no point in pretending otherwise.
    It's not false hope. It's a process. First, it means it is in the public domain and, as @Anabobazina points out, ensures that the government - and scientists - are aware that millions of people want them, somehow, to work towards getting them to be able to go on holiday as soon as possible.

    Secondly, by articulating it it is then out in the open. So "When can I go on holiday?" is met with "Not yet." that addresses directly peoples' concerns and helps them reconcile themselves with the situation.
    Well, God knows the country is in need of some collective reassurance and counselling during this thing. In the past, my concern was that that kind of pressure could lead to too quick a loosening for the sake of some easy popularity, but it looks as if the government have learned that lesson this time around.
    Except that this approach contradicts the government's own narrative.

    Look at our wonderful vaccines!

    Careful they may NOT protect you! that's why we still need lockdown!!

    No it doesn't. Why do you keep peddling something you don't understand?

    1. The vaccines don't protect EVERYBODY, although they do protect most people.
    2. Not everyone is vaccinated.
    3. Time is needed after vaccination to build immunity.

    Which part of this don't you understand?
    Contrarian understands all of that. What he is saying is despite the government presenting the vaccines as a silver bullet reasons will always be found for more lockdowns because the public/gov opponents/the media/the killjoys have a taste for it.

    I think Contrarian over-eggs it rather and I don`t accept that the government is addicted to authoritarian measures.
    Either it is a silver bullet or it isn't

    If it is we no longer need lockdowns and we can indeed set a timetable for exit.

    If vaccination isn't a silver bullet then why are they trumpeting it like it is?

    The only answer is surely that the government's strategy is containment.

    Get through today, get to tomorrow.
    Shouldn't the timetable be set by events?
    Vaccinations are events aren't they?
    Hospital numbers are the only real measure that matter in the long term. If we can turn this into something where only a few hundred people end up in hospital over each winter because they've refused a booster shot then it's the end state. We need to have the whole economy reopened and international travel with vaccine passports reopened as well to countries in a similar state of affairs.
    Hancock was pretty explicit that that was the endgame this weekend.
  • Foxy said:

    What a shit Sir Andrew Murray and his brother are.

    Judy Murray has revealed that she had a £4,500 non-surgical facelift after her sons, the tennis champions, teased her about having “turkey neck”.

    The 61-year-old tennis coach said that years training outside and watching her sons compete in the sun had left her skin wrinkly.

    “My kids, Jamie and Andy, started to call me turkey neck a few years ago in a loving and jokey way,” she said in a talk released by her cosmetic doctor. “That may have had something to do with me thinking I really should do something about this if I can.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/judy-murray-facelift-andy-fp5pm5vb2?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1613409425

    Must be a barrel of laughs around their dinner table!
    image

    Quite.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    More holiday questions.

    Of course.

    Millions of people want to escape this and go on holiday.

    The prior question was about support for people with mental health problems. Having clarity about holidays one way or another, and asking about when and if is a part of the normalisation of our lives and a coping mechanism for people who are suffering.

    Does it mean they are demanding holidays? Only JHB and Tobes. The rest are just willing for it all to be "ok" and these questions are part of it.

    Not everyone is as sanguine, wise, or has all the stats at their fingertips plus an informed view of the viral epidemiology.
    Where do they want to go, Israel?
    They are just scared, depressed, nervous, anxious. But for sure smartarse comments will help I'm sure.
    I'm genuinely curious where they are hoping to go? Perhaps a dose of realism is in order.
    Rob they want it all to be ok later in the year. Will it be? Who knows. But that is what people, in all their illogical, ignorant, misinformed glory want.

    And hence the press are articulating this.

    Both the questions and the answers are part of the coping mechanism.
    The journalist was asking about holidays in weeks, not months. They should simply get a grip and stop asking.
    I know we're all on PB but you do understand how human beings work, don't you?

    Not all as clever as you, obvs, but the lumpen proletariat are a funny lot.
    I honestly don't see how anyone, lumpen or not, benefits from false hope. There's plenty of good news coming in by the day, but foreign holidays are obviously going to be impractical for a while and there's no point in pretending otherwise.
    It's not false hope. It's a process. First, it means it is in the public domain and, as @Anabobazina points out, ensures that the government - and scientists - are aware that millions of people want them, somehow, to work towards getting them to be able to go on holiday as soon as possible.

    Secondly, by articulating it it is then out in the open. So "When can I go on holiday?" is met with "Not yet." that addresses directly peoples' concerns and helps them reconcile themselves with the situation.
    Well, God knows the country is in need of some collective reassurance and counselling during this thing. In the past, my concern was that that kind of pressure could lead to too quick a loosening for the sake of some easy popularity, but it looks as if the government have learned that lesson this time around.
    Except that this approach contradicts the government's own narrative.

    Look at our wonderful vaccines!

    Careful they may NOT protect you! that's why we still need lockdown!!

    No it doesn't. Why do you keep peddling something you don't understand?

    1. The vaccines don't protect EVERYBODY, although they do protect most people.
    2. Not everyone is vaccinated.
    3. Time is needed after vaccination to build immunity.

    Which part of this don't you understand?
    Contrarian understands all of that. What he is saying is despite the government presenting the vaccines as a silver bullet reasons will always be found for more lockdowns because the public/gov opponents/the media/the killjoys have a taste for it.

    I think Contrarian over-eggs it rather and I don`t accept that the government is addicted to authoritarian measures.
    Either it is a silver bullet or it isn't

    If it is we no longer need lockdowns and we can indeed set a timetable for exit.

    If vaccination isn't a silver bullet then why are they trumpeting it like it is?

    The only answer is surely that the government's strategy is containment.

    Get through today, get to tomorrow.
    Shouldn't the timetable be set by events?
    Vaccinations are events aren't they?
    Hospital numbers are the only real measure that matter in the long term. If we can turn this into something where only a few hundred people end up in hospital over each winter because they've refused a booster shot then it's the end state. We need to have the whole economy reopened and international travel with vaccine passports reopened as well to countries in a similar state of affairs.
    Hancock was pretty explicit that that was the endgame this weekend.
    I hope so and he doesn't get convinced otherwise by the zero COVID scientists.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    kamski said:

    538 net approval shows Biden having the worst honeymoon of any president since the second world war except for Trump.

    Numbers on 538 yours truly is looking at (as I type this drivel) re: presidential approval % on Day (edit) 27

    Biden 54.6%
    Trump 44.6% (lower than Uncle Joe)
    Obama 63.9%
    Bush II 52.0% (lower)
    Clinton 51.8% (lower)
    Bush I 54.6% (even with Biden)
    Reagan 51.6% (lower)
    Carter 66%
    Ford 71%
    Nixon 59%
    Johnson 76%
    Kennedy 72%
    Eisenhower 68%
    Truman not given

    SO out of 14 post-WWII POTUS, there are FOUR with lower approval ratings on equivalent date that Uncle Joe, plus one tie.

    AND from 1980 forward, Biden's approval three weeks was exceeded only by Barack Obama.
    Shows how divided US politics now is that IKE, a Republican and Kennedy and Johnson, both Democrats all had approval ratings over 65% at this stage which no President since 1980 has been able to match
    Absolutely for Kennedy especially considering how very narrowly he won his election. Johnson was after the assasination wasn't it so you'd expect a sympathy surge.

    Though it seems even stranger in hindsight seeing how much approval there was for Ford and Carter. Neither are particularly remembered as popular POTUS's.
    They weren't especially noteworthy Presidents but both Ford, as a socially liberal Michigan Republican and Carter, as a socially conservative Southern Democrat, were relative moderates within their parties
    Ford "socially liberal"? Certainly NOT when he was in Congress, where he was leading advocate for the impeachment of Chief Justice Earl Warren!

    Anyway, the real reason for the sharp difference pre-1980 versus post-1980, is the change in US attitudes towards politicians in particular, and the American political system in general. Characterized by rising distrust, disgust and disappointment among a VERY broad spectrum - left, right & center.
    Ford was the last pro choice Republican US president in that he did not favour outlawing abortion, so he certainly was.

    Indeed in 1976 Ford was on most issues more socially liberal than Carter, even if more fiscally conservative.

    1976 was also the last election the Democrats won Texas and Ohio and the Republicans won California and Illinois
    Ford tacked to the left once he was sworn in a President. As for abortion, THAT was NOT a burning issue for either left or right UNTIL Roe v. Wade (1973).
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 793
    edited February 2021
    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    More holiday questions.

    Of course.

    Millions of people want to escape this and go on holiday.

    The prior question was about support for people with mental health problems. Having clarity about holidays one way or another, and asking about when and if is a part of the normalisation of our lives and a coping mechanism for people who are suffering.

    Does it mean they are demanding holidays? Only JHB and Tobes. The rest are just willing for it all to be "ok" and these questions are part of it.

    Not everyone is as sanguine, wise, or has all the stats at their fingertips plus an informed view of the viral epidemiology.
    Where do they want to go, Israel?
    They are just scared, depressed, nervous, anxious. But for sure smartarse comments will help I'm sure.
    I'm genuinely curious where they are hoping to go? Perhaps a dose of realism is in order.
    Rob they want it all to be ok later in the year. Will it be? Who knows. But that is what people, in all their illogical, ignorant, misinformed glory want.

    And hence the press are articulating this.

    Both the questions and the answers are part of the coping mechanism.
    The journalist was asking about holidays in weeks, not months. They should simply get a grip and stop asking.
    I know we're all on PB but you do understand how human beings work, don't you?

    Not all as clever as you, obvs, but the lumpen proletariat are a funny lot.
    I honestly don't see how anyone, lumpen or not, benefits from false hope. There's plenty of good news coming in by the day, but foreign holidays are obviously going to be impractical for a while and there's no point in pretending otherwise.
    It's not false hope. It's a process. First, it means it is in the public domain and, as @Anabobazina points out, ensures that the government - and scientists - are aware that millions of people want them, somehow, to work towards getting them to be able to go on holiday as soon as possible.

    Secondly, by articulating it it is then out in the open. So "When can I go on holiday?" is met with "Not yet." that addresses directly peoples' concerns and helps them reconcile themselves with the situation.
    Well, God knows the country is in need of some collective reassurance and counselling during this thing. In the past, my concern was that that kind of pressure could lead to too quick a loosening for the sake of some easy popularity, but it looks as if the government have learned that lesson this time around.
    Except that this approach contradicts the government's own narrative.

    Look at our wonderful vaccines!

    Careful they may NOT protect you! that's why we still need lockdown!!

    No it doesn't. Why do you keep peddling something you don't understand?

    1. The vaccines don't protect EVERYBODY, although they do protect most people.
    2. Not everyone is vaccinated.
    3. Time is needed after vaccination to build immunity.

    Which part of this don't you understand?
    Contrarian understands all of that. What he is saying is despite the government presenting the vaccines as a silver bullet reasons will always be found for more lockdowns because the public/gov opponents/the media/the killjoys have a taste for it.

    I think Contrarian over-eggs it rather and I don`t accept that the government is addicted to authoritarian measures.
    Either it is a silver bullet or it isn't

    If it is we no longer need lockdowns and we can indeed set a timetable for exit.

    If vaccination isn't a silver bullet then why are they trumpeting it like it is?

    The only answer is surely that the government's strategy is containment.

    Get through today, get to tomorrow.
    Shouldn't the timetable be set by events?
    Yes. Hospitalisations and deaths. What if, as the PM and the medicos were saying today, the timetable is set by just in case. Just in case new variants emerge. Just in case cases spike. Just in case the vaccine is not effective. Just in case...
    Completely agree. If 100k people per day are testing positive but only 10 people per day are going to hospital for it then there's no need for lockdown. We can't allow for this idea of zero COVID to take off. We need to aim to minimise hospitalisation and death from it, nothing more than that.
    I think Hancock knocked Zero Covid on the head the other week and the recent outbreaks in NZ and Aus have demonstrated the impossibility of the idea even there.

    Ferguson, the man whose modelling sent us into the first lockdown, has gone on record to say he is optimistic and he's still on NERVTAG. Ultimately, unless you believe in a global conspiracy we will be driven in part by what happens elsewhere. For example, if Tokyo runs an Olympic Games that results in a devastating second wave we won't have any spectators back in stadiums for the forseeable. However, if the games go without much of a hitch, then expect pressure to build here. I am confident that there will be crowds at US college and NFL football come September, similarly that will inform the debate about crowds in the Premier League.
    Thing is, the vaccines actually do make "zero" covid more feasible, both because they help suppress it in the first place, and because they slow down any outbreaks, thus making it possible to contain them without full lockdown. 10 hospitalisations in 100,000 cases isn't realistic when vaccine efficacy is 95%.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    Evening all :)

    It's a Monday so the figures always look "better" but the hospitalisation number in particular is encouraging though there are still 23,000 in hospital though we've a way to go yet on that front.

    15 million vaccinations is of course impressive and we're closing in on getting one quarter of the entire population vaccinated. However, behind the figures it would be encouraging to see more equal progress countrywide. It's already been anecdotally reported some areas are speeding into groups 6 and 7 on the vaccination yet other seem much further behind.

    In my part of East London, we seem to be struggling compared to other areas. It's important where there are issues with contacting people or supplies of vaccine or places where vaccinations can be administered these are promptly addressed. There's no point "finishing" some areas while areas are still weeks away from completing the vaccination for their populations as we can't really lift restrictions until we are all at a certain point unless we go back to the hotchpotch of tiers and that doesn't seem to be where the Government is.

    The logistical triumph of vaccination needs to be for everyone not just for the fortunate areas.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Gaussian said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    More holiday questions.

    Of course.

    Millions of people want to escape this and go on holiday.

    The prior question was about support for people with mental health problems. Having clarity about holidays one way or another, and asking about when and if is a part of the normalisation of our lives and a coping mechanism for people who are suffering.

    Does it mean they are demanding holidays? Only JHB and Tobes. The rest are just willing for it all to be "ok" and these questions are part of it.

    Not everyone is as sanguine, wise, or has all the stats at their fingertips plus an informed view of the viral epidemiology.
    Where do they want to go, Israel?
    They are just scared, depressed, nervous, anxious. But for sure smartarse comments will help I'm sure.
    I'm genuinely curious where they are hoping to go? Perhaps a dose of realism is in order.
    Rob they want it all to be ok later in the year. Will it be? Who knows. But that is what people, in all their illogical, ignorant, misinformed glory want.

    And hence the press are articulating this.

    Both the questions and the answers are part of the coping mechanism.
    The journalist was asking about holidays in weeks, not months. They should simply get a grip and stop asking.
    I know we're all on PB but you do understand how human beings work, don't you?

    Not all as clever as you, obvs, but the lumpen proletariat are a funny lot.
    I honestly don't see how anyone, lumpen or not, benefits from false hope. There's plenty of good news coming in by the day, but foreign holidays are obviously going to be impractical for a while and there's no point in pretending otherwise.
    It's not false hope. It's a process. First, it means it is in the public domain and, as @Anabobazina points out, ensures that the government - and scientists - are aware that millions of people want them, somehow, to work towards getting them to be able to go on holiday as soon as possible.

    Secondly, by articulating it it is then out in the open. So "When can I go on holiday?" is met with "Not yet." that addresses directly peoples' concerns and helps them reconcile themselves with the situation.
    Well, God knows the country is in need of some collective reassurance and counselling during this thing. In the past, my concern was that that kind of pressure could lead to too quick a loosening for the sake of some easy popularity, but it looks as if the government have learned that lesson this time around.
    Except that this approach contradicts the government's own narrative.

    Look at our wonderful vaccines!

    Careful they may NOT protect you! that's why we still need lockdown!!

    No it doesn't. Why do you keep peddling something you don't understand?

    1. The vaccines don't protect EVERYBODY, although they do protect most people.
    2. Not everyone is vaccinated.
    3. Time is needed after vaccination to build immunity.

    Which part of this don't you understand?
    Contrarian understands all of that. What he is saying is despite the government presenting the vaccines as a silver bullet reasons will always be found for more lockdowns because the public/gov opponents/the media/the killjoys have a taste for it.

    I think Contrarian over-eggs it rather and I don`t accept that the government is addicted to authoritarian measures.
    Either it is a silver bullet or it isn't

    If it is we no longer need lockdowns and we can indeed set a timetable for exit.

    If vaccination isn't a silver bullet then why are they trumpeting it like it is?

    The only answer is surely that the government's strategy is containment.

    Get through today, get to tomorrow.
    Shouldn't the timetable be set by events?
    Yes. Hospitalisations and deaths. What if, as the PM and the medicos were saying today, the timetable is set by just in case. Just in case new variants emerge. Just in case cases spike. Just in case the vaccine is not effective. Just in case...
    Completely agree. If 100k people per day are testing positive but only 10 people per day are going to hospital for it then there's no need for lockdown. We can't allow for this idea of zero COVID to take off. We need to aim to minimise hospitalisation and death from it, nothing more than that.
    I think Hancock knocked Zero Covid on the head the other week and the recent outbreaks in NZ and Aus have demonstrated the impossibility of the idea even there.

    Ferguson, the man whose modelling sent us into the first lockdown, has gone on record to say he is optimistic and he's still on NERVTAG. Ultimately, unless you believe in a global conspiracy we will be driven in part by what happens elsewhere. For example, if Tokyo runs an Olympic Games that results in a devastating second wave we won't have any spectators back in stadiums for the forseeable. However, if the games go without much of a hitch, then expect pressure to build here. I am confident that there will be crowds at US college and NFL football come September, similarly that will inform the debate about crowds in the Premier League.
    Thing is, the vaccines actually do make "zero" covid more feasible, both because they help suppress it in the first place, and because they slow down any outbreaks, thus making it possible to contain them without full lockdown. 10 hospitalisations in 100,000 cases isn't realistic when vaccine efficacy is 95%.
    Vaccine efficacy is 95% for mild symptoms. It's close to 100% against hospitalisation. 1 in 10,000 (99.99%) for an mRNA vaccine is actually realistic becuase we have two trials with 40k each and neither has had any hospitalisations in the vaccine arm.
  • Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:
    Cheap grub or another spike in Covid cases? Tough call.
    I can see the Government leaving restaurants shut for so long that there'll be little prospect of a large spike in cases by the time they let them open again, barring a disastrous vaccine-evading mutation.

    Here's my guess. I can see primary schools coming back on March 8th, secondaries not until after the Easter holidays, shops, gyms and hairdressers in stages during late Spring, but probably no movement at all on hospitality until three weeks after the last of the over 50s have been jabbed.

    That takes us up to about the second May Bank Holiday, by which point there's a better chance of the weather not being consistently crap. That's the point at which I think we might get some of the hospitality trade back - though under, at a minimum, the same distancing and other restrictions that existed before they were last shut down. It's a distinct possibility that they might also be obliged to operate outdoors only for a couple of months, at least until priority groups in the second phase of the vaccine program (perhaps including, at a guess, all the over 40s) have had their shots. Hotels might have to wait until July, in time for the school holidays.

    We might eventually get theatres and spectator sports back in late Summer as well (probably too late for the likes of Wimbledon, but in time for the start of the new football season,) and they won't be allowed full crowds for the foreseeable future. I think we can forget about things like music festivals and nightclubs altogether until next year; masks and social distancing will be around until Spring 2022.
    I hope you are wrong. The figures are improving so fast and we are well past the point that NHS is under threat.

    Keeping cafes and restaurants shut (especially outside eating and drinking) until May is ridiculous. I think things will relax faster than you say, not least because that data will demand it and further curtailment of liberty will be legally suspect. And, of course, financially we are in the sh1t already.

    We need legalities to be replaced with guidelines as soon as possible.
    Spot on.

    The roadmap needs to looking something like this:

    Beer gardens 2 April (Good Friday)
    Pubs (indoor allowed, Rule of Six) 1 May (May Day)
    All restrictions removed 21 June (First Day of Summer)

    Where you and I slightly disagree is that I would actually keep the exact same lockdown we have now until the 0001hrs on 2 April.

    Why? By doing so, you get a free 17 days of schools closure, because they break up on Good Friday anyway.

    Doesn't seem worth opening schools for three weeks to me, but I can understand those that think otherwise.


    I think you're being overly pessimistic and I would go faster than that.

    08 March Schools reopen
    29 March Non-essential shops and Beer Gardens
    19 or 26 April Pubs (indoor allowed, rule of 6)
    24 May All domestic restrictions removed.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    edited February 2021
    Let's temporarily and briefly forget the question of when the economy will open up, when pubs and restaurants and holidays etc. will be permitted and look a bit closer to home at a restriction that probably affects most people, even on the list of 1. - 5. we had earlier in the thread.

    When will I be able to have people round my house for an indoor social visit?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited February 2021
    MaxPB said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    More holiday questions.

    Of course.

    Millions of people want to escape this and go on holiday.

    The prior question was about support for people with mental health problems. Having clarity about holidays one way or another, and asking about when and if is a part of the normalisation of our lives and a coping mechanism for people who are suffering.

    Does it mean they are demanding holidays? Only JHB and Tobes. The rest are just willing for it all to be "ok" and these questions are part of it.

    Not everyone is as sanguine, wise, or has all the stats at their fingertips plus an informed view of the viral epidemiology.
    Where do they want to go, Israel?
    They are just scared, depressed, nervous, anxious. But for sure smartarse comments will help I'm sure.
    I'm genuinely curious where they are hoping to go? Perhaps a dose of realism is in order.
    Rob they want it all to be ok later in the year. Will it be? Who knows. But that is what people, in all their illogical, ignorant, misinformed glory want.

    And hence the press are articulating this.

    Both the questions and the answers are part of the coping mechanism.
    The journalist was asking about holidays in weeks, not months. They should simply get a grip and stop asking.
    I know we're all on PB but you do understand how human beings work, don't you?

    Not all as clever as you, obvs, but the lumpen proletariat are a funny lot.
    I honestly don't see how anyone, lumpen or not, benefits from false hope. There's plenty of good news coming in by the day, but foreign holidays are obviously going to be impractical for a while and there's no point in pretending otherwise.
    It's not false hope. It's a process. First, it means it is in the public domain and, as @Anabobazina points out, ensures that the government - and scientists - are aware that millions of people want them, somehow, to work towards getting them to be able to go on holiday as soon as possible.

    Secondly, by articulating it it is then out in the open. So "When can I go on holiday?" is met with "Not yet." that addresses directly peoples' concerns and helps them reconcile themselves with the situation.
    Well, God knows the country is in need of some collective reassurance and counselling during this thing. In the past, my concern was that that kind of pressure could lead to too quick a loosening for the sake of some easy popularity, but it looks as if the government have learned that lesson this time around.
    Except that this approach contradicts the government's own narrative.

    Look at our wonderful vaccines!

    Careful they may NOT protect you! that's why we still need lockdown!!

    No it doesn't. Why do you keep peddling something you don't understand?

    1. The vaccines don't protect EVERYBODY, although they do protect most people.
    2. Not everyone is vaccinated.
    3. Time is needed after vaccination to build immunity.

    Which part of this don't you understand?
    Contrarian understands all of that. What he is saying is despite the government presenting the vaccines as a silver bullet reasons will always be found for more lockdowns because the public/gov opponents/the media/the killjoys have a taste for it.

    I think Contrarian over-eggs it rather and I don`t accept that the government is addicted to authoritarian measures.
    Either it is a silver bullet or it isn't

    If it is we no longer need lockdowns and we can indeed set a timetable for exit.

    If vaccination isn't a silver bullet then why are they trumpeting it like it is?

    The only answer is surely that the government's strategy is containment.

    Get through today, get to tomorrow.
    Shouldn't the timetable be set by events?
    Vaccinations are events aren't they?
    Hospital numbers are the only real measure that matter in the long term. If we can turn this into something where only a few hundred people end up in hospital over each winter because they've refused a booster shot then it's the end state. We need to have the whole economy reopened and international travel with vaccine passports reopened as well to countries in a similar state of affairs.
    Hancock was pretty explicit that that was the endgame this weekend.
    I hope so and he doesn't get convinced otherwise by the zero COVID scientists.
    We're not going for zero Covid because it would require total lockdown until - well, probably forever. Or at least until the country decides to do a New Zealand, i.e. properly wall itself up (no truckers travelling back and forth across the Channel and a sealed border in Ireland.)

    And even that wouldn't do the Government any good because it's clearly unsustainable in the long term: Saint Jacinda of Ardern herself is suffering some criticism for the pedestrian nature of the Kiwi vaccine effort. They want letting out too, and ultimately that's going to have to mean accepting a certain level of illness and death.

    What I am just a little concerned about is that the Government might tip too far in the direction of caution, and we end up with lockdown-plus-schools until August or September. I don't think it will be that bad either, but I wouldn't put it past them.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:
    Cheap grub or another spike in Covid cases? Tough call.
    I can see the Government leaving restaurants shut for so long that there'll be little prospect of a large spike in cases by the time they let them open again, barring a disastrous vaccine-evading mutation.

    Here's my guess. I can see primary schools coming back on March 8th, secondaries not until after the Easter holidays, shops, gyms and hairdressers in stages during late Spring, but probably no movement at all on hospitality until three weeks after the last of the over 50s have been jabbed.

    That takes us up to about the second May Bank Holiday, by which point there's a better chance of the weather not being consistently crap. That's the point at which I think we might get some of the hospitality trade back - though under, at a minimum, the same distancing and other restrictions that existed before they were last shut down. It's a distinct possibility that they might also be obliged to operate outdoors only for a couple of months, at least until priority groups in the second phase of the vaccine program (perhaps including, at a guess, all the over 40s) have had their shots. Hotels might have to wait until July, in time for the school holidays.

    We might eventually get theatres and spectator sports back in late Summer as well (probably too late for the likes of Wimbledon, but in time for the start of the new football season,) and they won't be allowed full crowds for the foreseeable future. I think we can forget about things like music festivals and nightclubs altogether until next year; masks and social distancing will be around until Spring 2022.
    I hope you are wrong. The figures are improving so fast and we are well past the point that NHS is under threat.

    Keeping cafes and restaurants shut (especially outside eating and drinking) until May is ridiculous. I think things will relax faster than you say, not least because that data will demand it and further curtailment of liberty will be legally suspect. And, of course, financially we are in the sh1t already.

    We need legalities to be replaced with guidelines as soon as possible.
    Spot on.

    The roadmap needs to looking something like this:

    Beer gardens 2 April (Good Friday)
    Pubs (indoor allowed, Rule of Six) 1 May (May Day)
    All restrictions removed 21 June (First Day of Summer)

    Where you and I slightly disagree is that I would actually keep the exact same lockdown we have now until the 0001hrs on 2 April.

    Why? By doing so, you get a free 17 days of schools closure, because they break up on Good Friday anyway.

    Doesn't seem worth opening schools for three weeks to me, but I can understand those that think otherwise.


    I think you're being overly pessimistic and I would go faster than that.

    08 March Schools reopen
    29 March Non-essential shops and Beer Gardens
    19 or 26 April Pubs (indoor allowed, rule of 6)
    24 May All domestic restrictions removed.
    Thats my hoped for timeline too.
  • MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    More holiday questions.

    Of course.

    Millions of people want to escape this and go on holiday.

    The prior question was about support for people with mental health problems. Having clarity about holidays one way or another, and asking about when and if is a part of the normalisation of our lives and a coping mechanism for people who are suffering.

    Does it mean they are demanding holidays? Only JHB and Tobes. The rest are just willing for it all to be "ok" and these questions are part of it.

    Not everyone is as sanguine, wise, or has all the stats at their fingertips plus an informed view of the viral epidemiology.
    Where do they want to go, Israel?
    They are just scared, depressed, nervous, anxious. But for sure smartarse comments will help I'm sure.
    I'm genuinely curious where they are hoping to go? Perhaps a dose of realism is in order.
    Rob they want it all to be ok later in the year. Will it be? Who knows. But that is what people, in all their illogical, ignorant, misinformed glory want.

    And hence the press are articulating this.

    Both the questions and the answers are part of the coping mechanism.
    The journalist was asking about holidays in weeks, not months. They should simply get a grip and stop asking.
    I know we're all on PB but you do understand how human beings work, don't you?

    Not all as clever as you, obvs, but the lumpen proletariat are a funny lot.
    I honestly don't see how anyone, lumpen or not, benefits from false hope. There's plenty of good news coming in by the day, but foreign holidays are obviously going to be impractical for a while and there's no point in pretending otherwise.
    It's not false hope. It's a process. First, it means it is in the public domain and, as @Anabobazina points out, ensures that the government - and scientists - are aware that millions of people want them, somehow, to work towards getting them to be able to go on holiday as soon as possible.

    Secondly, by articulating it it is then out in the open. So "When can I go on holiday?" is met with "Not yet." that addresses directly peoples' concerns and helps them reconcile themselves with the situation.
    Well, God knows the country is in need of some collective reassurance and counselling during this thing. In the past, my concern was that that kind of pressure could lead to too quick a loosening for the sake of some easy popularity, but it looks as if the government have learned that lesson this time around.
    Except that this approach contradicts the government's own narrative.

    Look at our wonderful vaccines!

    Careful they may NOT protect you! that's why we still need lockdown!!

    No it doesn't. Why do you keep peddling something you don't understand?

    1. The vaccines don't protect EVERYBODY, although they do protect most people.
    2. Not everyone is vaccinated.
    3. Time is needed after vaccination to build immunity.

    Which part of this don't you understand?
    Contrarian understands all of that. What he is saying is despite the government presenting the vaccines as a silver bullet reasons will always be found for more lockdowns because the public/gov opponents/the media/the killjoys have a taste for it.

    I think Contrarian over-eggs it rather and I don`t accept that the government is addicted to authoritarian measures.
    Either it is a silver bullet or it isn't

    If it is we no longer need lockdowns and we can indeed set a timetable for exit.

    If vaccination isn't a silver bullet then why are they trumpeting it like it is?

    The only answer is surely that the government's strategy is containment.

    Get through today, get to tomorrow.
    Shouldn't the timetable be set by events?
    Vaccinations are events aren't they?
    Hospital numbers are the only real measure that matter in the long term. If we can turn this into something where only a few hundred people end up in hospital over each winter because they've refused a booster shot then it's the end state. We need to have the whole economy reopened and international travel with vaccine passports reopened as well to countries in a similar state of affairs.
    Absolutely agreed, but as we get through this then we ought to be able to timetable how and when the hospital numbers will fall based upon the progress of the vaccination drive.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Let's temporarily and briefly forget the question of when the economy will open up, when pubs and restaurants and holidays etc. will be permitted and look a bit closer to home at a restriction that probably affects most people, even on the list of 1. - 5. we had earlier in the thread.

    When will I be able to have people round my house for an indoor social visit?

    At a guess, whenever indoor service resumes in restaurants. July, maybe? Technically this will probably also require you to obey the rule of six, or only have people from one other household round, or some such thing - though when it finally gets that far the death count will probably be down almost to zero anyway and I imagine that many or most people will disregard such restrictions, which are largely unenforceable regardless.
  • Mortimer said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:
    Cheap grub or another spike in Covid cases? Tough call.
    I can see the Government leaving restaurants shut for so long that there'll be little prospect of a large spike in cases by the time they let them open again, barring a disastrous vaccine-evading mutation.

    Here's my guess. I can see primary schools coming back on March 8th, secondaries not until after the Easter holidays, shops, gyms and hairdressers in stages during late Spring, but probably no movement at all on hospitality until three weeks after the last of the over 50s have been jabbed.

    That takes us up to about the second May Bank Holiday, by which point there's a better chance of the weather not being consistently crap. That's the point at which I think we might get some of the hospitality trade back - though under, at a minimum, the same distancing and other restrictions that existed before they were last shut down. It's a distinct possibility that they might also be obliged to operate outdoors only for a couple of months, at least until priority groups in the second phase of the vaccine program (perhaps including, at a guess, all the over 40s) have had their shots. Hotels might have to wait until July, in time for the school holidays.

    We might eventually get theatres and spectator sports back in late Summer as well (probably too late for the likes of Wimbledon, but in time for the start of the new football season,) and they won't be allowed full crowds for the foreseeable future. I think we can forget about things like music festivals and nightclubs altogether until next year; masks and social distancing will be around until Spring 2022.
    I hope you are wrong. The figures are improving so fast and we are well past the point that NHS is under threat.

    Keeping cafes and restaurants shut (especially outside eating and drinking) until May is ridiculous. I think things will relax faster than you say, not least because that data will demand it and further curtailment of liberty will be legally suspect. And, of course, financially we are in the sh1t already.

    We need legalities to be replaced with guidelines as soon as possible.
    Spot on.

    The roadmap needs to looking something like this:

    Beer gardens 2 April (Good Friday)
    Pubs (indoor allowed, Rule of Six) 1 May (May Day)
    All restrictions removed 21 June (First Day of Summer)

    Where you and I slightly disagree is that I would actually keep the exact same lockdown we have now until the 0001hrs on 2 April.

    Why? By doing so, you get a free 17 days of schools closure, because they break up on Good Friday anyway.

    Doesn't seem worth opening schools for three weeks to me, but I can understand those that think otherwise.


    I think you're being overly pessimistic and I would go faster than that.

    08 March Schools reopen
    29 March Non-essential shops and Beer Gardens
    19 or 26 April Pubs (indoor allowed, rule of 6)
    24 May All domestic restrictions removed.
    Thats my hoped for timeline too.
    24 May: does that mean eg return to football crowds without restrictions - I know the domestic season will be over but we will have 'Euro 2020'
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    More holiday questions.

    Of course.

    Millions of people want to escape this and go on holiday.

    The prior question was about support for people with mental health problems. Having clarity about holidays one way or another, and asking about when and if is a part of the normalisation of our lives and a coping mechanism for people who are suffering.

    Does it mean they are demanding holidays? Only JHB and Tobes. The rest are just willing for it all to be "ok" and these questions are part of it.

    Not everyone is as sanguine, wise, or has all the stats at their fingertips plus an informed view of the viral epidemiology.
    Where do they want to go, Israel?
    They are just scared, depressed, nervous, anxious. But for sure smartarse comments will help I'm sure.
    I'm genuinely curious where they are hoping to go? Perhaps a dose of realism is in order.
    Rob they want it all to be ok later in the year. Will it be? Who knows. But that is what people, in all their illogical, ignorant, misinformed glory want.

    And hence the press are articulating this.

    Both the questions and the answers are part of the coping mechanism.
    The journalist was asking about holidays in weeks, not months. They should simply get a grip and stop asking.
    I know we're all on PB but you do understand how human beings work, don't you?

    Not all as clever as you, obvs, but the lumpen proletariat are a funny lot.
    I honestly don't see how anyone, lumpen or not, benefits from false hope. There's plenty of good news coming in by the day, but foreign holidays are obviously going to be impractical for a while and there's no point in pretending otherwise.
    It's not false hope. It's a process. First, it means it is in the public domain and, as @Anabobazina points out, ensures that the government - and scientists - are aware that millions of people want them, somehow, to work towards getting them to be able to go on holiday as soon as possible.

    Secondly, by articulating it it is then out in the open. So "When can I go on holiday?" is met with "Not yet." that addresses directly peoples' concerns and helps them reconcile themselves with the situation.
    Well, God knows the country is in need of some collective reassurance and counselling during this thing. In the past, my concern was that that kind of pressure could lead to too quick a loosening for the sake of some easy popularity, but it looks as if the government have learned that lesson this time around.
    Except that this approach contradicts the government's own narrative.

    Look at our wonderful vaccines!

    Careful they may NOT protect you! that's why we still need lockdown!!

    No it doesn't. Why do you keep peddling something you don't understand?

    1. The vaccines don't protect EVERYBODY, although they do protect most people.
    2. Not everyone is vaccinated.
    3. Time is needed after vaccination to build immunity.

    Which part of this don't you understand?
    Contrarian understands all of that. What he is saying is despite the government presenting the vaccines as a silver bullet reasons will always be found for more lockdowns because the public/gov opponents/the media/the killjoys have a taste for it.

    I think Contrarian over-eggs it rather and I don`t accept that the government is addicted to authoritarian measures.
    Either it is a silver bullet or it isn't

    If it is we no longer need lockdowns and we can indeed set a timetable for exit.

    If vaccination isn't a silver bullet then why are they trumpeting it like it is?

    The only answer is surely that the government's strategy is containment.

    Get through today, get to tomorrow.
    Shouldn't the timetable be set by events?
    Vaccinations are events aren't they?
    Hospital numbers are the only real measure that matter in the long term. If we can turn this into something where only a few hundred people end up in hospital over each winter because they've refused a booster shot then it's the end state. We need to have the whole economy reopened and international travel with vaccine passports reopened as well to countries in a similar state of affairs.
    Hancock was pretty explicit that that was the endgame this weekend.
    I hope so and he doesn't get convinced otherwise by the zero COVID scientists.
    We're not going for zero Covid because it would require total lockdown until - well, probably forever. Or at least until the country decides to do a New Zealand, i.e. properly wall itself up (no truckers travelling back and forth across the Channel and a sealed border in Ireland.)

    And even that wouldn't do the Government any good because it's clearly unsustainable in the long term: Saint Jacinda of Ardern herself is suffering some criticism for the pedestrian nature of the Kiwi vaccine effort. They want letting out too, and ultimately that's going to have to mean accepting a certain level of illness and death.

    What I am just a little concerned about is that the Government might tip too far in the direction of caution, and we end up with lockdown-plus-schools until August or September. I don't think it will be that bad either, but I wouldn't put it past them.
    Boris finds himself on the receiving end of a leadership challenge if he does the latter. The Tory party is our ultimate guarantee against zero COVID and against any lockdown longer than necessary. Thank fuck for Steve Baker, I guess.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 793

    MaxPB said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    More holiday questions.

    Of course.

    Millions of people want to escape this and go on holiday.

    The prior question was about support for people with mental health problems. Having clarity about holidays one way or another, and asking about when and if is a part of the normalisation of our lives and a coping mechanism for people who are suffering.

    Does it mean they are demanding holidays? Only JHB and Tobes. The rest are just willing for it all to be "ok" and these questions are part of it.

    Not everyone is as sanguine, wise, or has all the stats at their fingertips plus an informed view of the viral epidemiology.
    Where do they want to go, Israel?
    They are just scared, depressed, nervous, anxious. But for sure smartarse comments will help I'm sure.
    I'm genuinely curious where they are hoping to go? Perhaps a dose of realism is in order.
    Rob they want it all to be ok later in the year. Will it be? Who knows. But that is what people, in all their illogical, ignorant, misinformed glory want.

    And hence the press are articulating this.

    Both the questions and the answers are part of the coping mechanism.
    The journalist was asking about holidays in weeks, not months. They should simply get a grip and stop asking.
    I know we're all on PB but you do understand how human beings work, don't you?

    Not all as clever as you, obvs, but the lumpen proletariat are a funny lot.
    I honestly don't see how anyone, lumpen or not, benefits from false hope. There's plenty of good news coming in by the day, but foreign holidays are obviously going to be impractical for a while and there's no point in pretending otherwise.
    It's not false hope. It's a process. First, it means it is in the public domain and, as @Anabobazina points out, ensures that the government - and scientists - are aware that millions of people want them, somehow, to work towards getting them to be able to go on holiday as soon as possible.

    Secondly, by articulating it it is then out in the open. So "When can I go on holiday?" is met with "Not yet." that addresses directly peoples' concerns and helps them reconcile themselves with the situation.
    Well, God knows the country is in need of some collective reassurance and counselling during this thing. In the past, my concern was that that kind of pressure could lead to too quick a loosening for the sake of some easy popularity, but it looks as if the government have learned that lesson this time around.
    Except that this approach contradicts the government's own narrative.

    Look at our wonderful vaccines!

    Careful they may NOT protect you! that's why we still need lockdown!!

    No it doesn't. Why do you keep peddling something you don't understand?

    1. The vaccines don't protect EVERYBODY, although they do protect most people.
    2. Not everyone is vaccinated.
    3. Time is needed after vaccination to build immunity.

    Which part of this don't you understand?
    Contrarian understands all of that. What he is saying is despite the government presenting the vaccines as a silver bullet reasons will always be found for more lockdowns because the public/gov opponents/the media/the killjoys have a taste for it.

    I think Contrarian over-eggs it rather and I don`t accept that the government is addicted to authoritarian measures.
    Either it is a silver bullet or it isn't

    If it is we no longer need lockdowns and we can indeed set a timetable for exit.

    If vaccination isn't a silver bullet then why are they trumpeting it like it is?

    The only answer is surely that the government's strategy is containment.

    Get through today, get to tomorrow.
    Shouldn't the timetable be set by events?
    Vaccinations are events aren't they?
    Hospital numbers are the only real measure that matter in the long term. If we can turn this into something where only a few hundred people end up in hospital over each winter because they've refused a booster shot then it's the end state. We need to have the whole economy reopened and international travel with vaccine passports reopened as well to countries in a similar state of affairs.
    Hancock was pretty explicit that that was the endgame this weekend.
    I hope so and he doesn't get convinced otherwise by the zero COVID scientists.
    We're not going for zero Covid because it would require total lockdown until - well, probably forever. Or at least until the country decides to do a New Zealand, i.e. properly wall itself up (no truckers travelling back and forth across the Channel and a sealed border in Ireland.)

    And even that wouldn't do the Government any good because it's clearly unsustainable in the long term: Saint Jacinda of Ardern herself is suffering some criticism for the pedestrian nature of the Kiwi vaccine effort. They want letting out too, and ultimately that's going to have to mean accepting a certain level of illness and death.

    What I am just a little concerned about is that the Government might tip too far in the direction of caution, and we end up with lockdown-plus-schools until August or September. I don't think it will be that bad either, but I wouldn't put it past them.
    It doesn't require full lockdown. It does require case R to be kept below 1, so as to keep moving towards zero. As vaccine immunity kicks in and cases get low enough for test&trace to at least cut out a decent proportion of transmission, restrictions can be lifted step by step while staying below 1.

    The payoff is denying the virus opportunities to mutate and evade the vaccines.
  • Mortimer said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:
    Cheap grub or another spike in Covid cases? Tough call.
    I can see the Government leaving restaurants shut for so long that there'll be little prospect of a large spike in cases by the time they let them open again, barring a disastrous vaccine-evading mutation.

    Here's my guess. I can see primary schools coming back on March 8th, secondaries not until after the Easter holidays, shops, gyms and hairdressers in stages during late Spring, but probably no movement at all on hospitality until three weeks after the last of the over 50s have been jabbed.

    That takes us up to about the second May Bank Holiday, by which point there's a better chance of the weather not being consistently crap. That's the point at which I think we might get some of the hospitality trade back - though under, at a minimum, the same distancing and other restrictions that existed before they were last shut down. It's a distinct possibility that they might also be obliged to operate outdoors only for a couple of months, at least until priority groups in the second phase of the vaccine program (perhaps including, at a guess, all the over 40s) have had their shots. Hotels might have to wait until July, in time for the school holidays.

    We might eventually get theatres and spectator sports back in late Summer as well (probably too late for the likes of Wimbledon, but in time for the start of the new football season,) and they won't be allowed full crowds for the foreseeable future. I think we can forget about things like music festivals and nightclubs altogether until next year; masks and social distancing will be around until Spring 2022.
    I hope you are wrong. The figures are improving so fast and we are well past the point that NHS is under threat.

    Keeping cafes and restaurants shut (especially outside eating and drinking) until May is ridiculous. I think things will relax faster than you say, not least because that data will demand it and further curtailment of liberty will be legally suspect. And, of course, financially we are in the sh1t already.

    We need legalities to be replaced with guidelines as soon as possible.
    Spot on.

    The roadmap needs to looking something like this:

    Beer gardens 2 April (Good Friday)
    Pubs (indoor allowed, Rule of Six) 1 May (May Day)
    All restrictions removed 21 June (First Day of Summer)

    Where you and I slightly disagree is that I would actually keep the exact same lockdown we have now until the 0001hrs on 2 April.

    Why? By doing so, you get a free 17 days of schools closure, because they break up on Good Friday anyway.

    Doesn't seem worth opening schools for three weeks to me, but I can understand those that think otherwise.


    I think you're being overly pessimistic and I would go faster than that.

    08 March Schools reopen
    29 March Non-essential shops and Beer Gardens
    19 or 26 April Pubs (indoor allowed, rule of 6)
    24 May All domestic restrictions removed.
    Thats my hoped for timeline too.
    24 May: does that mean eg return to football crowds without restrictions - I know the domestic season will be over but we will have 'Euro 2020'
    I would hope so, yes.

    By 24 May we will have all of groups 1-4 double-vaccinated, all of groups 5-9 single-vaccinated, plus the three weeks will have passed for the vaccination to become active.

    That should be enough to get back to normal. Anyone who doesn't want to go to a football crowd should avoid it, but the vulnerable will all be vaccinated.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    More holiday questions.

    Of course.

    Millions of people want to escape this and go on holiday.

    The prior question was about support for people with mental health problems. Having clarity about holidays one way or another, and asking about when and if is a part of the normalisation of our lives and a coping mechanism for people who are suffering.

    Does it mean they are demanding holidays? Only JHB and Tobes. The rest are just willing for it all to be "ok" and these questions are part of it.

    Not everyone is as sanguine, wise, or has all the stats at their fingertips plus an informed view of the viral epidemiology.
    Where do they want to go, Israel?
    They are just scared, depressed, nervous, anxious. But for sure smartarse comments will help I'm sure.
    I'm genuinely curious where they are hoping to go? Perhaps a dose of realism is in order.
    Rob they want it all to be ok later in the year. Will it be? Who knows. But that is what people, in all their illogical, ignorant, misinformed glory want.

    And hence the press are articulating this.

    Both the questions and the answers are part of the coping mechanism.
    The journalist was asking about holidays in weeks, not months. They should simply get a grip and stop asking.
    I know we're all on PB but you do understand how human beings work, don't you?

    Not all as clever as you, obvs, but the lumpen proletariat are a funny lot.
    I honestly don't see how anyone, lumpen or not, benefits from false hope. There's plenty of good news coming in by the day, but foreign holidays are obviously going to be impractical for a while and there's no point in pretending otherwise.
    It's not false hope. It's a process. First, it means it is in the public domain and, as @Anabobazina points out, ensures that the government - and scientists - are aware that millions of people want them, somehow, to work towards getting them to be able to go on holiday as soon as possible.

    Secondly, by articulating it it is then out in the open. So "When can I go on holiday?" is met with "Not yet." that addresses directly peoples' concerns and helps them reconcile themselves with the situation.
    Well, God knows the country is in need of some collective reassurance and counselling during this thing. In the past, my concern was that that kind of pressure could lead to too quick a loosening for the sake of some easy popularity, but it looks as if the government have learned that lesson this time around.
    Except that this approach contradicts the government's own narrative.

    Look at our wonderful vaccines!

    Careful they may NOT protect you! that's why we still need lockdown!!

    No it doesn't. Why do you keep peddling something you don't understand?

    1. The vaccines don't protect EVERYBODY, although they do protect most people.
    2. Not everyone is vaccinated.
    3. Time is needed after vaccination to build immunity.

    Which part of this don't you understand?
    Contrarian understands all of that. What he is saying is despite the government presenting the vaccines as a silver bullet reasons will always be found for more lockdowns because the public/gov opponents/the media/the killjoys have a taste for it.

    I think Contrarian over-eggs it rather and I don`t accept that the government is addicted to authoritarian measures.
    Either it is a silver bullet or it isn't

    If it is we no longer need lockdowns and we can indeed set a timetable for exit.

    If vaccination isn't a silver bullet then why are they trumpeting it like it is?

    The only answer is surely that the government's strategy is containment.

    Get through today, get to tomorrow.
    Shouldn't the timetable be set by events?
    Vaccinations are events aren't they?
    Hospital numbers are the only real measure that matter in the long term. If we can turn this into something where only a few hundred people end up in hospital over each winter because they've refused a booster shot then it's the end state. We need to have the whole economy reopened and international travel with vaccine passports reopened as well to countries in a similar state of affairs.
    Hancock was pretty explicit that that was the endgame this weekend.
    I hope so and he doesn't get convinced otherwise by the zero COVID scientists.
    We're not going for zero Covid because it would require total lockdown until - well, probably forever. Or at least until the country decides to do a New Zealand, i.e. properly wall itself up (no truckers travelling back and forth across the Channel and a sealed border in Ireland.)

    And even that wouldn't do the Government any good because it's clearly unsustainable in the long term: Saint Jacinda of Ardern herself is suffering some criticism for the pedestrian nature of the Kiwi vaccine effort. They want letting out too, and ultimately that's going to have to mean accepting a certain level of illness and death.

    What I am just a little concerned about is that the Government might tip too far in the direction of caution, and we end up with lockdown-plus-schools until August or September. I don't think it will be that bad either, but I wouldn't put it past them.
    Boris finds himself on the receiving end of a leadership challenge if he does the latter. The Tory party is our ultimate guarantee against zero COVID and against any lockdown longer than necessary. Thank fuck for Steve Baker, I guess.
    I don't think zero covid is a plan by anyone. the issue is really more a question about what and when - and I would be looking more at opening things for May than for Easter - Easter is just that bit too early
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042
    Roger said:

    What a shit Sir Andrew Murray and his brother are.

    Judy Murray has revealed that she had a £4,500 non-surgical facelift after her sons, the tennis champions, teased her about having “turkey neck”.

    The 61-year-old tennis coach said that years training outside and watching her sons compete in the sun had left her skin wrinkly.

    “My kids, Jamie and Andy, started to call me turkey neck a few years ago in a loving and jokey way,” she said in a talk released by her cosmetic doctor. “That may have had something to do with me thinking I really should do something about this if I can.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/judy-murray-facelift-andy-fp5pm5vb2?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1613409425

    Like either of those two are oil paintings!
    Quite.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 793

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    More holiday questions.

    Of course.

    Millions of people want to escape this and go on holiday.

    The prior question was about support for people with mental health problems. Having clarity about holidays one way or another, and asking about when and if is a part of the normalisation of our lives and a coping mechanism for people who are suffering.

    Does it mean they are demanding holidays? Only JHB and Tobes. The rest are just willing for it all to be "ok" and these questions are part of it.

    Not everyone is as sanguine, wise, or has all the stats at their fingertips plus an informed view of the viral epidemiology.
    Where do they want to go, Israel?
    They are just scared, depressed, nervous, anxious. But for sure smartarse comments will help I'm sure.
    I'm genuinely curious where they are hoping to go? Perhaps a dose of realism is in order.
    Rob they want it all to be ok later in the year. Will it be? Who knows. But that is what people, in all their illogical, ignorant, misinformed glory want.

    And hence the press are articulating this.

    Both the questions and the answers are part of the coping mechanism.
    The journalist was asking about holidays in weeks, not months. They should simply get a grip and stop asking.
    I know we're all on PB but you do understand how human beings work, don't you?

    Not all as clever as you, obvs, but the lumpen proletariat are a funny lot.
    I honestly don't see how anyone, lumpen or not, benefits from false hope. There's plenty of good news coming in by the day, but foreign holidays are obviously going to be impractical for a while and there's no point in pretending otherwise.
    It's not false hope. It's a process. First, it means it is in the public domain and, as @Anabobazina points out, ensures that the government - and scientists - are aware that millions of people want them, somehow, to work towards getting them to be able to go on holiday as soon as possible.

    Secondly, by articulating it it is then out in the open. So "When can I go on holiday?" is met with "Not yet." that addresses directly peoples' concerns and helps them reconcile themselves with the situation.
    Well, God knows the country is in need of some collective reassurance and counselling during this thing. In the past, my concern was that that kind of pressure could lead to too quick a loosening for the sake of some easy popularity, but it looks as if the government have learned that lesson this time around.
    Except that this approach contradicts the government's own narrative.

    Look at our wonderful vaccines!

    Careful they may NOT protect you! that's why we still need lockdown!!

    No it doesn't. Why do you keep peddling something you don't understand?

    1. The vaccines don't protect EVERYBODY, although they do protect most people.
    2. Not everyone is vaccinated.
    3. Time is needed after vaccination to build immunity.

    Which part of this don't you understand?
    Contrarian understands all of that. What he is saying is despite the government presenting the vaccines as a silver bullet reasons will always be found for more lockdowns because the public/gov opponents/the media/the killjoys have a taste for it.

    I think Contrarian over-eggs it rather and I don`t accept that the government is addicted to authoritarian measures.
    Either it is a silver bullet or it isn't

    If it is we no longer need lockdowns and we can indeed set a timetable for exit.

    If vaccination isn't a silver bullet then why are they trumpeting it like it is?

    The only answer is surely that the government's strategy is containment.

    Get through today, get to tomorrow.
    Shouldn't the timetable be set by events?
    Vaccinations are events aren't they?
    Hospital numbers are the only real measure that matter in the long term. If we can turn this into something where only a few hundred people end up in hospital over each winter because they've refused a booster shot then it's the end state. We need to have the whole economy reopened and international travel with vaccine passports reopened as well to countries in a similar state of affairs.
    Absolutely agreed, but as we get through this then we ought to be able to timetable how and when the hospital numbers will fall based upon the progress of the vaccination drive.
    No we can't because there's two factors in this: hospitalisations per case, which are somewhat predictable based on vaccination progress, and cases, which are far less predictable because small differences in R quickly multiply into big differences in case numbers.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    End of April for over 50s requires an average of 368,338 jabs per day. With 10.92 million second jabs needed in the mix
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Gaussian said:

    MaxPB said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    More holiday questions.

    Of course.

    Millions of people want to escape this and go on holiday.

    The prior question was about support for people with mental health problems. Having clarity about holidays one way or another, and asking about when and if is a part of the normalisation of our lives and a coping mechanism for people who are suffering.

    Does it mean they are demanding holidays? Only JHB and Tobes. The rest are just willing for it all to be "ok" and these questions are part of it.

    Not everyone is as sanguine, wise, or has all the stats at their fingertips plus an informed view of the viral epidemiology.
    Where do they want to go, Israel?
    They are just scared, depressed, nervous, anxious. But for sure smartarse comments will help I'm sure.
    I'm genuinely curious where they are hoping to go? Perhaps a dose of realism is in order.
    Rob they want it all to be ok later in the year. Will it be? Who knows. But that is what people, in all their illogical, ignorant, misinformed glory want.

    And hence the press are articulating this.

    Both the questions and the answers are part of the coping mechanism.
    The journalist was asking about holidays in weeks, not months. They should simply get a grip and stop asking.
    I know we're all on PB but you do understand how human beings work, don't you?

    Not all as clever as you, obvs, but the lumpen proletariat are a funny lot.
    I honestly don't see how anyone, lumpen or not, benefits from false hope. There's plenty of good news coming in by the day, but foreign holidays are obviously going to be impractical for a while and there's no point in pretending otherwise.
    It's not false hope. It's a process. First, it means it is in the public domain and, as @Anabobazina points out, ensures that the government - and scientists - are aware that millions of people want them, somehow, to work towards getting them to be able to go on holiday as soon as possible.

    Secondly, by articulating it it is then out in the open. So "When can I go on holiday?" is met with "Not yet." that addresses directly peoples' concerns and helps them reconcile themselves with the situation.
    Well, God knows the country is in need of some collective reassurance and counselling during this thing. In the past, my concern was that that kind of pressure could lead to too quick a loosening for the sake of some easy popularity, but it looks as if the government have learned that lesson this time around.
    Except that this approach contradicts the government's own narrative.

    Look at our wonderful vaccines!

    Careful they may NOT protect you! that's why we still need lockdown!!

    No it doesn't. Why do you keep peddling something you don't understand?

    1. The vaccines don't protect EVERYBODY, although they do protect most people.
    2. Not everyone is vaccinated.
    3. Time is needed after vaccination to build immunity.

    Which part of this don't you understand?
    Contrarian understands all of that. What he is saying is despite the government presenting the vaccines as a silver bullet reasons will always be found for more lockdowns because the public/gov opponents/the media/the killjoys have a taste for it.

    I think Contrarian over-eggs it rather and I don`t accept that the government is addicted to authoritarian measures.
    Either it is a silver bullet or it isn't

    If it is we no longer need lockdowns and we can indeed set a timetable for exit.

    If vaccination isn't a silver bullet then why are they trumpeting it like it is?

    The only answer is surely that the government's strategy is containment.

    Get through today, get to tomorrow.
    Shouldn't the timetable be set by events?
    Vaccinations are events aren't they?
    Hospital numbers are the only real measure that matter in the long term. If we can turn this into something where only a few hundred people end up in hospital over each winter because they've refused a booster shot then it's the end state. We need to have the whole economy reopened and international travel with vaccine passports reopened as well to countries in a similar state of affairs.
    Hancock was pretty explicit that that was the endgame this weekend.
    I hope so and he doesn't get convinced otherwise by the zero COVID scientists.
    We're not going for zero Covid because it would require total lockdown until - well, probably forever. Or at least until the country decides to do a New Zealand, i.e. properly wall itself up (no truckers travelling back and forth across the Channel and a sealed border in Ireland.)

    And even that wouldn't do the Government any good because it's clearly unsustainable in the long term: Saint Jacinda of Ardern herself is suffering some criticism for the pedestrian nature of the Kiwi vaccine effort. They want letting out too, and ultimately that's going to have to mean accepting a certain level of illness and death.

    What I am just a little concerned about is that the Government might tip too far in the direction of caution, and we end up with lockdown-plus-schools until August or September. I don't think it will be that bad either, but I wouldn't put it past them.
    It doesn't require full lockdown. It does require case R to be kept below 1, so as to keep moving towards zero. As vaccine immunity kicks in and cases get low enough for test&trace to at least cut out a decent proportion of transmission, restrictions can be lifted step by step while staying below 1.

    The payoff is denying the virus opportunities to mutate and evade the vaccines.
    Even if the Test & Trace system were any good, it would be less than 100% effective and this is such an infectious disease it would just escape through one or two asymptomatic carriers and live on. And then there's the problem of reinfection from abroad.

    Zero Covid is about as realistic an aim as Zero Flu.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    More holiday questions.

    Of course.

    Millions of people want to escape this and go on holiday.

    The prior question was about support for people with mental health problems. Having clarity about holidays one way or another, and asking about when and if is a part of the normalisation of our lives and a coping mechanism for people who are suffering.

    Does it mean they are demanding holidays? Only JHB and Tobes. The rest are just willing for it all to be "ok" and these questions are part of it.

    Not everyone is as sanguine, wise, or has all the stats at their fingertips plus an informed view of the viral epidemiology.
    Where do they want to go, Israel?
    They are just scared, depressed, nervous, anxious. But for sure smartarse comments will help I'm sure.
    I'm genuinely curious where they are hoping to go? Perhaps a dose of realism is in order.
    Rob they want it all to be ok later in the year. Will it be? Who knows. But that is what people, in all their illogical, ignorant, misinformed glory want.

    And hence the press are articulating this.

    Both the questions and the answers are part of the coping mechanism.
    The journalist was asking about holidays in weeks, not months. They should simply get a grip and stop asking.
    I know we're all on PB but you do understand how human beings work, don't you?

    Not all as clever as you, obvs, but the lumpen proletariat are a funny lot.
    I honestly don't see how anyone, lumpen or not, benefits from false hope. There's plenty of good news coming in by the day, but foreign holidays are obviously going to be impractical for a while and there's no point in pretending otherwise.
    It's not false hope. It's a process. First, it means it is in the public domain and, as @Anabobazina points out, ensures that the government - and scientists - are aware that millions of people want them, somehow, to work towards getting them to be able to go on holiday as soon as possible.

    Secondly, by articulating it it is then out in the open. So "When can I go on holiday?" is met with "Not yet." that addresses directly peoples' concerns and helps them reconcile themselves with the situation.
    Well, God knows the country is in need of some collective reassurance and counselling during this thing. In the past, my concern was that that kind of pressure could lead to too quick a loosening for the sake of some easy popularity, but it looks as if the government have learned that lesson this time around.
    Except that this approach contradicts the government's own narrative.

    Look at our wonderful vaccines!

    Careful they may NOT protect you! that's why we still need lockdown!!

    No it doesn't. Why do you keep peddling something you don't understand?

    1. The vaccines don't protect EVERYBODY, although they do protect most people.
    2. Not everyone is vaccinated.
    3. Time is needed after vaccination to build immunity.

    Which part of this don't you understand?
    Contrarian understands all of that. What he is saying is despite the government presenting the vaccines as a silver bullet reasons will always be found for more lockdowns because the public/gov opponents/the media/the killjoys have a taste for it.

    I think Contrarian over-eggs it rather and I don`t accept that the government is addicted to authoritarian measures.
    Either it is a silver bullet or it isn't

    If it is we no longer need lockdowns and we can indeed set a timetable for exit.

    If vaccination isn't a silver bullet then why are they trumpeting it like it is?

    The only answer is surely that the government's strategy is containment.

    Get through today, get to tomorrow.
    Shouldn't the timetable be set by events?
    Vaccinations are events aren't they?
    Hospital numbers are the only real measure that matter in the long term. If we can turn this into something where only a few hundred people end up in hospital over each winter because they've refused a booster shot then it's the end state. We need to have the whole economy reopened and international travel with vaccine passports reopened as well to countries in a similar state of affairs.
    Hancock was pretty explicit that that was the endgame this weekend.
    I hope so and he doesn't get convinced otherwise by the zero COVID scientists.
    We're not going for zero Covid because it would require total lockdown until - well, probably forever. Or at least until the country decides to do a New Zealand, i.e. properly wall itself up (no truckers travelling back and forth across the Channel and a sealed border in Ireland.)

    And even that wouldn't do the Government any good because it's clearly unsustainable in the long term: Saint Jacinda of Ardern herself is suffering some criticism for the pedestrian nature of the Kiwi vaccine effort. They want letting out too, and ultimately that's going to have to mean accepting a certain level of illness and death.

    What I am just a little concerned about is that the Government might tip too far in the direction of caution, and we end up with lockdown-plus-schools until August or September. I don't think it will be that bad either, but I wouldn't put it past them.
    Boris finds himself on the receiving end of a leadership challenge if he does the latter. The Tory party is our ultimate guarantee against zero COVID and against any lockdown longer than necessary. Thank fuck for Steve Baker, I guess.
    I don't think zero covid is a plan by anyone. the issue is really more a question about what and when - and I would be looking more at opening things for May than for Easter - Easter is just that bit too early
    Let's see what SAGE members start briefing after the 22nd on the subject. That's what the government will need to resist.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,599

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    More holiday questions.

    Of course.

    Millions of people want to escape this and go on holiday.

    The prior question was about support for people with mental health problems. Having clarity about holidays one way or another, and asking about when and if is a part of the normalisation of our lives and a coping mechanism for people who are suffering.

    Does it mean they are demanding holidays? Only JHB and Tobes. The rest are just willing for it all to be "ok" and these questions are part of it.

    Not everyone is as sanguine, wise, or has all the stats at their fingertips plus an informed view of the viral epidemiology.
    Where do they want to go, Israel?
    They are just scared, depressed, nervous, anxious. But for sure smartarse comments will help I'm sure.
    I'm genuinely curious where they are hoping to go? Perhaps a dose of realism is in order.
    Rob they want it all to be ok later in the year. Will it be? Who knows. But that is what people, in all their illogical, ignorant, misinformed glory want.

    And hence the press are articulating this.

    Both the questions and the answers are part of the coping mechanism.
    The journalist was asking about holidays in weeks, not months. They should simply get a grip and stop asking.
    I know we're all on PB but you do understand how human beings work, don't you?

    Not all as clever as you, obvs, but the lumpen proletariat are a funny lot.
    I honestly don't see how anyone, lumpen or not, benefits from false hope. There's plenty of good news coming in by the day, but foreign holidays are obviously going to be impractical for a while and there's no point in pretending otherwise.
    It's not false hope. It's a process. First, it means it is in the public domain and, as @Anabobazina points out, ensures that the government - and scientists - are aware that millions of people want them, somehow, to work towards getting them to be able to go on holiday as soon as possible.

    Secondly, by articulating it it is then out in the open. So "When can I go on holiday?" is met with "Not yet." that addresses directly peoples' concerns and helps them reconcile themselves with the situation.
    Well, God knows the country is in need of some collective reassurance and counselling during this thing. In the past, my concern was that that kind of pressure could lead to too quick a loosening for the sake of some easy popularity, but it looks as if the government have learned that lesson this time around.
    Except that this approach contradicts the government's own narrative.

    Look at our wonderful vaccines!

    Careful they may NOT protect you! that's why we still need lockdown!!

    No it doesn't. Why do you keep peddling something you don't understand?

    1. The vaccines don't protect EVERYBODY, although they do protect most people.
    2. Not everyone is vaccinated.
    3. Time is needed after vaccination to build immunity.

    Which part of this don't you understand?
    Contrarian understands all of that. What he is saying is despite the government presenting the vaccines as a silver bullet reasons will always be found for more lockdowns because the public/gov opponents/the media/the killjoys have a taste for it.

    I think Contrarian over-eggs it rather and I don`t accept that the government is addicted to authoritarian measures.
    Either it is a silver bullet or it isn't

    If it is we no longer need lockdowns and we can indeed set a timetable for exit.

    If vaccination isn't a silver bullet then why are they trumpeting it like it is?

    The only answer is surely that the government's strategy is containment.

    Get through today, get to tomorrow.
    Shouldn't the timetable be set by events?
    Vaccinations are events aren't they?
    Hospital numbers are the only real measure that matter in the long term. If we can turn this into something where only a few hundred people end up in hospital over each winter because they've refused a booster shot then it's the end state. We need to have the whole economy reopened and international travel with vaccine passports reopened as well to countries in a similar state of affairs.
    Absolutely agreed, but as we get through this then we ought to be able to timetable how and when the hospital numbers will fall based upon the progress of the vaccination drive.
    Interesting nugget in yesterday’s Sunday Times or Observer (I take both and can’t remember which it was) that the government gets the PHE England report into real-world vaccination efficacy on Friday. That’s a key date although it’s early findings have already leaked.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,599

    Mortimer said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:
    Cheap grub or another spike in Covid cases? Tough call.
    I can see the Government leaving restaurants shut for so long that there'll be little prospect of a large spike in cases by the time they let them open again, barring a disastrous vaccine-evading mutation.

    Here's my guess. I can see primary schools coming back on March 8th, secondaries not until after the Easter holidays, shops, gyms and hairdressers in stages during late Spring, but probably no movement at all on hospitality until three weeks after the last of the over 50s have been jabbed.

    That takes us up to about the second May Bank Holiday, by which point there's a better chance of the weather not being consistently crap. That's the point at which I think we might get some of the hospitality trade back - though under, at a minimum, the same distancing and other restrictions that existed before they were last shut down. It's a distinct possibility that they might also be obliged to operate outdoors only for a couple of months, at least until priority groups in the second phase of the vaccine program (perhaps including, at a guess, all the over 40s) have had their shots. Hotels might have to wait until July, in time for the school holidays.

    We might eventually get theatres and spectator sports back in late Summer as well (probably too late for the likes of Wimbledon, but in time for the start of the new football season,) and they won't be allowed full crowds for the foreseeable future. I think we can forget about things like music festivals and nightclubs altogether until next year; masks and social distancing will be around until Spring 2022.
    I hope you are wrong. The figures are improving so fast and we are well past the point that NHS is under threat.

    Keeping cafes and restaurants shut (especially outside eating and drinking) until May is ridiculous. I think things will relax faster than you say, not least because that data will demand it and further curtailment of liberty will be legally suspect. And, of course, financially we are in the sh1t already.

    We need legalities to be replaced with guidelines as soon as possible.
    Spot on.

    The roadmap needs to looking something like this:

    Beer gardens 2 April (Good Friday)
    Pubs (indoor allowed, Rule of Six) 1 May (May Day)
    All restrictions removed 21 June (First Day of Summer)

    Where you and I slightly disagree is that I would actually keep the exact same lockdown we have now until the 0001hrs on 2 April.

    Why? By doing so, you get a free 17 days of schools closure, because they break up on Good Friday anyway.

    Doesn't seem worth opening schools for three weeks to me, but I can understand those that think otherwise.


    I think you're being overly pessimistic and I would go faster than that.

    08 March Schools reopen
    29 March Non-essential shops and Beer Gardens
    19 or 26 April Pubs (indoor allowed, rule of 6)
    24 May All domestic restrictions removed.
    Thats my hoped for timeline too.
    24 May: does that mean eg return to football crowds without restrictions - I know the domestic season will be over but we will have 'Euro 2020'
    We should offer to host Euro 2021 in its entirety and offer places to those who have been vaccinated. Key workers fill up the stadiums. Would be a superb move.
  • Pulpstar said:

    End of April for over 50s requires an average of 368,338 jabs per day. With 10.92 million second jabs needed in the mix

    It has to be much more than 10.92 million isn't it? It is surely over 14 million?
  • MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    More holiday questions.

    Of course.

    Millions of people want to escape this and go on holiday.

    The prior question was about support for people with mental health problems. Having clarity about holidays one way or another, and asking about when and if is a part of the normalisation of our lives and a coping mechanism for people who are suffering.

    Does it mean they are demanding holidays? Only JHB and Tobes. The rest are just willing for it all to be "ok" and these questions are part of it.

    Not everyone is as sanguine, wise, or has all the stats at their fingertips plus an informed view of the viral epidemiology.
    Where do they want to go, Israel?
    They are just scared, depressed, nervous, anxious. But for sure smartarse comments will help I'm sure.
    I'm genuinely curious where they are hoping to go? Perhaps a dose of realism is in order.
    Rob they want it all to be ok later in the year. Will it be? Who knows. But that is what people, in all their illogical, ignorant, misinformed glory want.

    And hence the press are articulating this.

    Both the questions and the answers are part of the coping mechanism.
    The journalist was asking about holidays in weeks, not months. They should simply get a grip and stop asking.
    I know we're all on PB but you do understand how human beings work, don't you?

    Not all as clever as you, obvs, but the lumpen proletariat are a funny lot.
    I honestly don't see how anyone, lumpen or not, benefits from false hope. There's plenty of good news coming in by the day, but foreign holidays are obviously going to be impractical for a while and there's no point in pretending otherwise.
    It's not false hope. It's a process. First, it means it is in the public domain and, as @Anabobazina points out, ensures that the government - and scientists - are aware that millions of people want them, somehow, to work towards getting them to be able to go on holiday as soon as possible.

    Secondly, by articulating it it is then out in the open. So "When can I go on holiday?" is met with "Not yet." that addresses directly peoples' concerns and helps them reconcile themselves with the situation.
    Well, God knows the country is in need of some collective reassurance and counselling during this thing. In the past, my concern was that that kind of pressure could lead to too quick a loosening for the sake of some easy popularity, but it looks as if the government have learned that lesson this time around.
    Except that this approach contradicts the government's own narrative.

    Look at our wonderful vaccines!

    Careful they may NOT protect you! that's why we still need lockdown!!

    No it doesn't. Why do you keep peddling something you don't understand?

    1. The vaccines don't protect EVERYBODY, although they do protect most people.
    2. Not everyone is vaccinated.
    3. Time is needed after vaccination to build immunity.

    Which part of this don't you understand?
    Contrarian understands all of that. What he is saying is despite the government presenting the vaccines as a silver bullet reasons will always be found for more lockdowns because the public/gov opponents/the media/the killjoys have a taste for it.

    I think Contrarian over-eggs it rather and I don`t accept that the government is addicted to authoritarian measures.
    Either it is a silver bullet or it isn't

    If it is we no longer need lockdowns and we can indeed set a timetable for exit.

    If vaccination isn't a silver bullet then why are they trumpeting it like it is?

    The only answer is surely that the government's strategy is containment.

    Get through today, get to tomorrow.
    Shouldn't the timetable be set by events?
    Vaccinations are events aren't they?
    Hospital numbers are the only real measure that matter in the long term. If we can turn this into something where only a few hundred people end up in hospital over each winter because they've refused a booster shot then it's the end state. We need to have the whole economy reopened and international travel with vaccine passports reopened as well to countries in a similar state of affairs.
    Absolutely agreed, but as we get through this then we ought to be able to timetable how and when the hospital numbers will fall based upon the progress of the vaccination drive.
    Interesting nugget in yesterday’s Sunday Times or Observer (I take both and can’t remember which it was) that the government gets the PHE England report into real-world vaccination efficacy on Friday. That’s a key date although it’s early findings have already leaked.
    Indeed this is key - there will be a week's worth of updated data, it doesn't sound much but will cover a week of additional 'progression' for cohorts 1 and 2 who would have got past the 'three weeks' stage.

    Expect some references to the outcome in the Plan.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,226
    Personally speaking, there is an air - literally - of optimism in north London tonight.

    Today it was occasionally sunny and 13C at peak. Even now it is 9C, dry and mild: a pleasant, fresh, very walkable evening. This feels like spring, and it probably is (the forecast next week is for 18C and sun!)

    We are, at least in the south of England. over the hump of winter. For sure it will come back and have another bite, but winter is beaten.

    It's difficult to know how this will affect us psychologically. If we get an amazing, sunny spring like last year - unlikely, but not impossible - the pressure to unlock will be intense, as cases and deaths fall off a cliff. If they don't open the pubs, the parks will become ad hoc beer gardens, anyway. Tricky.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    More holiday questions.

    Of course.

    Millions of people want to escape this and go on holiday.

    The prior question was about support for people with mental health problems. Having clarity about holidays one way or another, and asking about when and if is a part of the normalisation of our lives and a coping mechanism for people who are suffering.

    Does it mean they are demanding holidays? Only JHB and Tobes. The rest are just willing for it all to be "ok" and these questions are part of it.

    Not everyone is as sanguine, wise, or has all the stats at their fingertips plus an informed view of the viral epidemiology.
    Where do they want to go, Israel?
    They are just scared, depressed, nervous, anxious. But for sure smartarse comments will help I'm sure.
    I'm genuinely curious where they are hoping to go? Perhaps a dose of realism is in order.
    Rob they want it all to be ok later in the year. Will it be? Who knows. But that is what people, in all their illogical, ignorant, misinformed glory want.

    And hence the press are articulating this.

    Both the questions and the answers are part of the coping mechanism.
    The journalist was asking about holidays in weeks, not months. They should simply get a grip and stop asking.
    I know we're all on PB but you do understand how human beings work, don't you?

    Not all as clever as you, obvs, but the lumpen proletariat are a funny lot.
    I honestly don't see how anyone, lumpen or not, benefits from false hope. There's plenty of good news coming in by the day, but foreign holidays are obviously going to be impractical for a while and there's no point in pretending otherwise.
    It's not false hope. It's a process. First, it means it is in the public domain and, as @Anabobazina points out, ensures that the government - and scientists - are aware that millions of people want them, somehow, to work towards getting them to be able to go on holiday as soon as possible.

    Secondly, by articulating it it is then out in the open. So "When can I go on holiday?" is met with "Not yet." that addresses directly peoples' concerns and helps them reconcile themselves with the situation.
    Well, God knows the country is in need of some collective reassurance and counselling during this thing. In the past, my concern was that that kind of pressure could lead to too quick a loosening for the sake of some easy popularity, but it looks as if the government have learned that lesson this time around.
    Except that this approach contradicts the government's own narrative.

    Look at our wonderful vaccines!

    Careful they may NOT protect you! that's why we still need lockdown!!

    No it doesn't. Why do you keep peddling something you don't understand?

    1. The vaccines don't protect EVERYBODY, although they do protect most people.
    2. Not everyone is vaccinated.
    3. Time is needed after vaccination to build immunity.

    Which part of this don't you understand?
    Contrarian understands all of that. What he is saying is despite the government presenting the vaccines as a silver bullet reasons will always be found for more lockdowns because the public/gov opponents/the media/the killjoys have a taste for it.

    I think Contrarian over-eggs it rather and I don`t accept that the government is addicted to authoritarian measures.
    Either it is a silver bullet or it isn't

    If it is we no longer need lockdowns and we can indeed set a timetable for exit.

    If vaccination isn't a silver bullet then why are they trumpeting it like it is?

    The only answer is surely that the government's strategy is containment.

    Get through today, get to tomorrow.
    Shouldn't the timetable be set by events?
    Vaccinations are events aren't they?
    Hospital numbers are the only real measure that matter in the long term. If we can turn this into something where only a few hundred people end up in hospital over each winter because they've refused a booster shot then it's the end state. We need to have the whole economy reopened and international travel with vaccine passports reopened as well to countries in a similar state of affairs.
    Hancock was pretty explicit that that was the endgame this weekend.
    I hope so and he doesn't get convinced otherwise by the zero COVID scientists.
    We're not going for zero Covid because it would require total lockdown until - well, probably forever. Or at least until the country decides to do a New Zealand, i.e. properly wall itself up (no truckers travelling back and forth across the Channel and a sealed border in Ireland.)

    And even that wouldn't do the Government any good because it's clearly unsustainable in the long term: Saint Jacinda of Ardern herself is suffering some criticism for the pedestrian nature of the Kiwi vaccine effort. They want letting out too, and ultimately that's going to have to mean accepting a certain level of illness and death.

    What I am just a little concerned about is that the Government might tip too far in the direction of caution, and we end up with lockdown-plus-schools until August or September. I don't think it will be that bad either, but I wouldn't put it past them.
    Boris finds himself on the receiving end of a leadership challenge if he does the latter. The Tory party is our ultimate guarantee against zero COVID and against any lockdown longer than necessary. Thank fuck for Steve Baker, I guess.
    The same Tory back benches who got Boris the job are the ONLY ones who can take it away prematurely. Boris is well aware of this.

    I'm expecting to see some briefing about going faster than the leaked timescale soon.
  • Gaussian said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    More holiday questions.

    Of course.

    Millions of people want to escape this and go on holiday.

    The prior question was about support for people with mental health problems. Having clarity about holidays one way or another, and asking about when and if is a part of the normalisation of our lives and a coping mechanism for people who are suffering.

    Does it mean they are demanding holidays? Only JHB and Tobes. The rest are just willing for it all to be "ok" and these questions are part of it.

    Not everyone is as sanguine, wise, or has all the stats at their fingertips plus an informed view of the viral epidemiology.
    Where do they want to go, Israel?
    They are just scared, depressed, nervous, anxious. But for sure smartarse comments will help I'm sure.
    I'm genuinely curious where they are hoping to go? Perhaps a dose of realism is in order.
    Rob they want it all to be ok later in the year. Will it be? Who knows. But that is what people, in all their illogical, ignorant, misinformed glory want.

    And hence the press are articulating this.

    Both the questions and the answers are part of the coping mechanism.
    The journalist was asking about holidays in weeks, not months. They should simply get a grip and stop asking.
    I know we're all on PB but you do understand how human beings work, don't you?

    Not all as clever as you, obvs, but the lumpen proletariat are a funny lot.
    I honestly don't see how anyone, lumpen or not, benefits from false hope. There's plenty of good news coming in by the day, but foreign holidays are obviously going to be impractical for a while and there's no point in pretending otherwise.
    It's not false hope. It's a process. First, it means it is in the public domain and, as @Anabobazina points out, ensures that the government - and scientists - are aware that millions of people want them, somehow, to work towards getting them to be able to go on holiday as soon as possible.

    Secondly, by articulating it it is then out in the open. So "When can I go on holiday?" is met with "Not yet." that addresses directly peoples' concerns and helps them reconcile themselves with the situation.
    Well, God knows the country is in need of some collective reassurance and counselling during this thing. In the past, my concern was that that kind of pressure could lead to too quick a loosening for the sake of some easy popularity, but it looks as if the government have learned that lesson this time around.
    Except that this approach contradicts the government's own narrative.

    Look at our wonderful vaccines!

    Careful they may NOT protect you! that's why we still need lockdown!!

    No it doesn't. Why do you keep peddling something you don't understand?

    1. The vaccines don't protect EVERYBODY, although they do protect most people.
    2. Not everyone is vaccinated.
    3. Time is needed after vaccination to build immunity.

    Which part of this don't you understand?
    Contrarian understands all of that. What he is saying is despite the government presenting the vaccines as a silver bullet reasons will always be found for more lockdowns because the public/gov opponents/the media/the killjoys have a taste for it.

    I think Contrarian over-eggs it rather and I don`t accept that the government is addicted to authoritarian measures.
    Either it is a silver bullet or it isn't

    If it is we no longer need lockdowns and we can indeed set a timetable for exit.

    If vaccination isn't a silver bullet then why are they trumpeting it like it is?

    The only answer is surely that the government's strategy is containment.

    Get through today, get to tomorrow.
    Shouldn't the timetable be set by events?
    Vaccinations are events aren't they?
    Hospital numbers are the only real measure that matter in the long term. If we can turn this into something where only a few hundred people end up in hospital over each winter because they've refused a booster shot then it's the end state. We need to have the whole economy reopened and international travel with vaccine passports reopened as well to countries in a similar state of affairs.
    Absolutely agreed, but as we get through this then we ought to be able to timetable how and when the hospital numbers will fall based upon the progress of the vaccination drive.
    No we can't because there's two factors in this: hospitalisations per case, which are somewhat predictable based on vaccination progress, and cases, which are far less predictable because small differences in R quickly multiply into big differences in case numbers.

    If hospitalisations per case are miniscule (because of vaccinations) then it doesn't matter too much what the case numbers are.

    Plus of course fewer unvaccinated people will push R down by itself too.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,722

    Pulpstar said:

    End of April for over 50s requires an average of 368,338 jabs per day. With 10.92 million second jabs needed in the mix

    It has to be much more than 10.92 million isn't it? It is surely over 14 million?
    Not by the end of April though
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,599
    Leon said:

    Personally speaking, there is an air - literally - of optimism in north London tonight.

    Today it was occasionally sunny and 13C at peak. Even now it is 9C, dry and mild: a pleasant, fresh, very walkable evening. This feels like spring, and it probably is (the forecast next week is for 18C and sun!)

    We are, at least in the south of England. over the hump of winter. For sure it will come back and have another bite, but winter is beaten.

    It's difficult to know how this will affect us psychologically. If we get an amazing, sunny spring like last year - unlikely, but not impossible - the pressure to unlock will be intense, as cases and deaths fall off a cliff. If they don't open the pubs, the parks will become ad hoc beer gardens, anyway. Tricky.

    Yes spring is in the air, and we have gone from days of snow and ice to almost balmy conditions with crocuses a welcome sight! Saturday looks lovely with 16c and some vernal sunshine. It’s been quite a winter on my edge of the capital, with several snowfalls.

    But, spring is here. Bright and early.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Leon said:

    Personally speaking, there is an air - literally - of optimism in north London tonight.

    Today it was occasionally sunny and 13C at peak. Even now it is 9C, dry and mild: a pleasant, fresh, very walkable evening. This feels like spring, and it probably is (the forecast next week is for 18C and sun!)

    We are, at least in the south of England. over the hump of winter. For sure it will come back and have another bite, but winter is beaten.

    It's difficult to know how this will affect us psychologically. If we get an amazing, sunny spring like last year - unlikely, but not impossible - the pressure to unlock will be intense, as cases and deaths fall off a cliff. If they don't open the pubs, the parks will become ad hoc beer gardens, anyway. Tricky.

    Oh goodness, wouldn't a repeat of last Spring be wonderful? It was just about the only good thing about that entire shitty year. Husband says he thinks that's what he'll remember most about 2020 when all of this is over and we're determined to forget the sheer horror of the rest of it.
  • Pulpstar said:

    End of April for over 50s requires an average of 368,338 jabs per day. With 10.92 million second jabs needed in the mix

    It has to be much more than 10.92 million isn't it? It is surely over 14 million?
    Not by the end of April though
    Why not? He announced today they'd be done by end of April didn't he?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    Restaurants might be closed, but we are swapping food cooked by neighbours. One of them left us a world-class fish curry last week. We have responded by dropping them off a duck and sausage cassoulet with a chocolate and orange mousse (Raymond Blanc's mother's recipe....).

    We are coping.

    I think this posting might be Peak pb.com. :)
    Until next weekend's menu at least..... 😉
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    edited February 2021

    Pulpstar said:

    End of April for over 50s requires an average of 368,338 jabs per day. With 10.92 million second jabs needed in the mix

    It has to be much more than 10.92 million isn't it? It is surely over 14 million?
    It's over 14 million by the 6th May, so I expect by the end of April it'll be approx 13 million maybe.
  • Pulpstar said:

    End of April for over 50s requires an average of 368,338 jabs per day. With 10.92 million second jabs needed in the mix

    It has to be much more than 10.92 million isn't it? It is surely over 14 million?
    Not by the end of April though
    Why not? He announced today they'd be done by end of April didn't he?
    Boris said today that groups 5 to 9 will be done by end April

    As I understand it there are 17m in this group, so total 32m groups 1 to 9.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841

    Pulpstar said:

    End of April for over 50s requires an average of 368,338 jabs per day. With 10.92 million second jabs needed in the mix

    It has to be much more than 10.92 million isn't it? It is surely over 14 million?
    Not by the end of April though
    Why not? He announced today they'd be done by end of April didn't he?
    Boris said today that groups 5 to 9 will be done by end April

    As I understand it there are 17m in this group, so total 32m groups 1 to 9.
    32 million 2nd doses certainly won't be done by the end of April ! It'll be somewhere between 11 and 15 million I think.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762

    Leon said:

    Personally speaking, there is an air - literally - of optimism in north London tonight.

    Today it was occasionally sunny and 13C at peak. Even now it is 9C, dry and mild: a pleasant, fresh, very walkable evening. This feels like spring, and it probably is (the forecast next week is for 18C and sun!)

    We are, at least in the south of England. over the hump of winter. For sure it will come back and have another bite, but winter is beaten.

    It's difficult to know how this will affect us psychologically. If we get an amazing, sunny spring like last year - unlikely, but not impossible - the pressure to unlock will be intense, as cases and deaths fall off a cliff. If they don't open the pubs, the parks will become ad hoc beer gardens, anyway. Tricky.

    Yes spring is in the air, and we have gone from days of snow and ice to almost balmy conditions with crocuses a welcome sight! Saturday looks lovely with 16c and some vernal sunshine. It’s been quite a winter on my edge of the capital, with several snowfalls.

    But, spring is here. Bright and early.
    We are still surrounded by huge lumps of snow which has largely turned to ice. The roads are clear now and there is a big improvement on the footpaths but that ice will be with us for the best part of 2 weeks yet.

    A repeat of last spring would just be fantastic. especially if we can get cafes and the village pub opened for the well earned rest! That will probably be mid to end May though.
  • Pulpstar said:

    End of April for over 50s requires an average of 368,338 jabs per day. With 10.92 million second jabs needed in the mix

    It has to be much more than 10.92 million isn't it? It is surely over 14 million?
    Not by the end of April though
    Why not? He announced today they'd be done by end of April didn't he?
    Boris said today that groups 5 to 9 will be done by end April

    As I understand it there are 17m in this group, so total 32m groups 1 to 9.
    I thought today he said that groups 5 to 9 first dose and second dose of 1 to 4 would be done by end April?
  • Pulpstar said:

    End of April for over 50s requires an average of 368,338 jabs per day. With 10.92 million second jabs needed in the mix

    It has to be much more than 10.92 million isn't it? It is surely over 14 million?
    Not by the end of April though
    Why not? He announced today they'd be done by end of April didn't he?
    Boris said today that groups 5 to 9 will be done by end April

    As I understand it there are 17m in this group, so total 32m groups 1 to 9.
    I thought today he said that groups 5 to 9 first dose and second dose of 1 to 4 would be done by end April?
    Yes he did, at least he said there would be lots of second doses done by end April.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,722

    Pulpstar said:

    End of April for over 50s requires an average of 368,338 jabs per day. With 10.92 million second jabs needed in the mix

    It has to be much more than 10.92 million isn't it? It is surely over 14 million?
    Not by the end of April though
    Why not? He announced today they'd be done by end of April didn't he?
    Only 2nd doses required by end of April are those that had first jabs by end of Jan. surely.

    As I said on the day Mrs BJO had her jab she was told her 2nd one "could be up to 20 weeks" after first one.

    I have had mine in February and been given a date of 4.5.21 for 2nd one
  • DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Personally speaking, there is an air - literally - of optimism in north London tonight.

    Today it was occasionally sunny and 13C at peak. Even now it is 9C, dry and mild: a pleasant, fresh, very walkable evening. This feels like spring, and it probably is (the forecast next week is for 18C and sun!)

    We are, at least in the south of England. over the hump of winter. For sure it will come back and have another bite, but winter is beaten.

    It's difficult to know how this will affect us psychologically. If we get an amazing, sunny spring like last year - unlikely, but not impossible - the pressure to unlock will be intense, as cases and deaths fall off a cliff. If they don't open the pubs, the parks will become ad hoc beer gardens, anyway. Tricky.

    Yes spring is in the air, and we have gone from days of snow and ice to almost balmy conditions with crocuses a welcome sight! Saturday looks lovely with 16c and some vernal sunshine. It’s been quite a winter on my edge of the capital, with several snowfalls.

    But, spring is here. Bright and early.
    We are still surrounded by huge lumps of snow which has largely turned to ice. The roads are clear now and there is a big improvement on the footpaths but that ice will be with us for the best part of 2 weeks yet.

    A repeat of last spring would just be fantastic. especially if we can get cafes and the village pub opened for the well earned rest! That will probably be mid to end May though.
    Of course - you have to follow the Sturgeon - and you know she likes a lockdown. So maybe August bank holiday in Scotland.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,054
    DougSeal said:

    Foxy said:

    DougSeal said:

    Lennon said:

    MaxPB said:

    The R in London has completely dropped off, I think we're at just over 0.6 so I think we need to start looking into whether herd immunity has been reached in some boroughs.

    How would you propose testing that hypothesis? (Which I think is potentially valid - but if so will likely be through a combination of Vaccine, Antibodies from previous COVID infection, T-Cell from previous COVID, and T-Cell from previous related infection - so non straightforward to test for)

    Also - it might be the case that herd immunity has been reached *with the current lockdown rules in place* - ie that herd immunity has been reached amongst hospital workers, bus drivers etc. but that the general populace is still more vulnerable.
    I agree with all of that. It is a very difficult hypothesis to test. However, globally, if we assume in the aggregate the rate of human contact is similar throughout the world, then I cannot fathom an explanation as to the current downward slope of the below graph unless the virus is running out of people to infect, or at least cause symptoms in. It's been doing this for over a month now - tomorrow or the day after the seven day average will be half what it was at the peak on 13 January.


    People were calling "herd immunity" last June, as I recall.
    They were wrong. And those claiming it now may be wrong. But the fact of the longest and sharpest global decline incases since the beginning of the pandemic is one that needs an explanation and it is not an unreasonable hypothesis.
    I think prevalence estimates for past infection are not high enough for herd immunity to account for the drop.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Tut tut - Guy Verhofstadt making a Europe/EU conflation when talking about negotation of contracts. For shame.

    https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1360554953446686722?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1360554953446686722|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://order-order.com/

    Not sure why he's split his video up into so many discrete chunks that are so short though. I do like the shots of reading and highlighting contracts however, makes for a more dynamic video than merely a statement.

    Though given all the incoming doses, not sure they would see a need to follow some of his suggestions for renegotiation.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    kle4 said:

    Tut tut - Guy Verhofstadt making a Europe/EU conflation when talking about negotation of contracts. For shame.

    https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1360554953446686722?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1360554953446686722|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://order-order.com/

    Not sure why he's split his video up into so many discrete chunks that are so short though. I do like the shots of reading and highlighting contracts however, makes for a more dynamic video than merely a statement.

    Though given all the incoming doses, not sure they would see a need to follow some of his suggestions for renegotiation.

    Yes, a very, very large chunk of that vaccine production is in the UK and Switzerland, neither of which are in the EU.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,226

    Leon said:

    Personally speaking, there is an air - literally - of optimism in north London tonight.

    Today it was occasionally sunny and 13C at peak. Even now it is 9C, dry and mild: a pleasant, fresh, very walkable evening. This feels like spring, and it probably is (the forecast next week is for 18C and sun!)

    We are, at least in the south of England. over the hump of winter. For sure it will come back and have another bite, but winter is beaten.

    It's difficult to know how this will affect us psychologically. If we get an amazing, sunny spring like last year - unlikely, but not impossible - the pressure to unlock will be intense, as cases and deaths fall off a cliff. If they don't open the pubs, the parks will become ad hoc beer gardens, anyway. Tricky.

    Yes spring is in the air, and we have gone from days of snow and ice to almost balmy conditions with crocuses a welcome sight! Saturday looks lovely with 16c and some vernal sunshine. It’s been quite a winter on my edge of the capital, with several snowfalls.

    But, spring is here. Bright and early.
    The daffs are up and the crocuses are OUT in Regents Park.

    AIR PUNCH
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited February 2021
    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    Tut tut - Guy Verhofstadt making a Europe/EU conflation when talking about negotation of contracts. For shame.

    https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1360554953446686722?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1360554953446686722|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://order-order.com/

    Not sure why he's split his video up into so many discrete chunks that are so short though. I do like the shots of reading and highlighting contracts however, makes for a more dynamic video than merely a statement.

    Though given all the incoming doses, not sure they would see a need to follow some of his suggestions for renegotiation.

    Yes, a very, very large chunk of that vaccine production is in the UK and Switzerland, neither of which are in the EU.
    I was more just amused because occasionally people forget that it is not just Brexiteers who are casual about talking of Europe when they mean the EU, a lot of people do it and so it really doesn't signify anything.

    His overall comments are interesting, even if I suspect some will find his conclusion of a Health Union etc not one they would support, but he is at least the kind of guy who will, as he opened with, criticise when he thinks it appropriate.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    Tut tut - Guy Verhofstadt making a Europe/EU conflation when talking about negotation of contracts. For shame.

    https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1360554953446686722?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1360554953446686722|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://order-order.com/

    Not sure why he's split his video up into so many discrete chunks that are so short though. I do like the shots of reading and highlighting contracts however, makes for a more dynamic video than merely a statement.

    Though given all the incoming doses, not sure they would see a need to follow some of his suggestions for renegotiation.

    Yes, a very, very large chunk of that vaccine production is in the UK and Switzerland, neither of which are in the EU.
    I was more just amused because occasionally people forget that it is not just Brexiteers who are casual about talking of Europe when they mean the EU, a lot of people do it and so it really doesn't signify anything.

    His overall comments are interesting, even if I suspect some will find his conclusion of a Health Union etc not one they would support, but he is at least the kind of guy who will, as he opened with, criticise when he thinks it appropriate.
    The conclusion from his analysis was that the solution was more europe? Couldn't make it up.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited February 2021
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    Tut tut - Guy Verhofstadt making a Europe/EU conflation when talking about negotation of contracts. For shame.

    https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1360554953446686722?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1360554953446686722|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://order-order.com/

    Not sure why he's split his video up into so many discrete chunks that are so short though. I do like the shots of reading and highlighting contracts however, makes for a more dynamic video than merely a statement.

    Though given all the incoming doses, not sure they would see a need to follow some of his suggestions for renegotiation.

    Yes, a very, very large chunk of that vaccine production is in the UK and Switzerland, neither of which are in the EU.
    I was more just amused because occasionally people forget that it is not just Brexiteers who are casual about talking of Europe when they mean the EU, a lot of people do it and so it really doesn't signify anything.

    His overall comments are interesting, even if I suspect some will find his conclusion of a Health Union etc not one they would support, but he is at least the kind of guy who will, as he opened with, criticise when he thinks it appropriate.
    The conclusion from his analysis was that the solution was more europe? Couldn't make it up.
    Well yes, that is his instinct of course, but he at least wants better Europe at the same time and is willing to point out when it was not better, not merely want more of it.
  • Pulpstar said:

    End of April for over 50s requires an average of 368,338 jabs per day. With 10.92 million second jabs needed in the mix

    It has to be much more than 10.92 million isn't it? It is surely over 14 million?
    Not by the end of April though
    Why not? He announced today they'd be done by end of April didn't he?
    Only 2nd doses required by end of April are those that had first jabs by end of Jan. surely.

    As I said on the day Mrs BJO had her jab she was told her 2nd one "could be up to 20 weeks" after first one.

    I have had mine in February and been given a date of 4.5.21 for 2nd one
    Whoever told you that was being overly pessimistic.

    Its been officially confirmed a few times since then they're sticking with a 12 week timescale and unless I misheard Boris committed tonight that all of the 1-4 group second doses will be completed by 30 April. So even if someone got their first jab on 13 February, the second jab is now due by 30 April.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Kohli facing a ban from the third test after his protests for the Root lbw that wasn't. Good, he shouldn't try and intimidate the umpires in that manner. The call was a very, very poor one but India have received more than their fair share of favourable calls this test and we didn't see that kind of intimidation by our players when we were in the wrong end of those poor calls.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Pulpstar said:

    End of April for over 50s requires an average of 368,338 jabs per day. With 10.92 million second jabs needed in the mix

    It has to be much more than 10.92 million isn't it? It is surely over 14 million?
    Not by the end of April though
    Why not? He announced today they'd be done by end of April didn't he?
    Only 2nd doses required by end of April are those that had first jabs by end of Jan. surely.

    As I said on the day Mrs BJO had her jab she was told her 2nd one "could be up to 20 weeks" after first one.

    I have had mine in February and been given a date of 4.5.21 for 2nd one
    Whoever told you that was being overly pessimistic.

    Its been officially confirmed a few times since then they're sticking with a 12 week timescale and unless I misheard Boris committed tonight that all of the 1-4 group second doses will be completed by 30 April. So even if someone got their first jab on 13 February, the second jab is now due by 30 April.
    Having a Bigquery window open during the day really helps calculate date_diffs without needing to look at calendars. Such a handy thing to be able to do.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    MaxPB said:

    Kohli facing a ban from the third test after his protests for the Root lbw that wasn't. Good, he shouldn't try and intimidate the umpires in that manner. The call was a very, very poor one but India have received more than their fair share of favourable calls this test and we didn't see that kind of intimidation by our players when we were in the wrong end of those poor calls.

    Dangers of being a superstar. See Serena Williams also.
  • MaxPB said:

    Gaussian said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    More holiday questions.

    Of course.

    Millions of people want to escape this and go on holiday.

    The prior question was about support for people with mental health problems. Having clarity about holidays one way or another, and asking about when and if is a part of the normalisation of our lives and a coping mechanism for people who are suffering.

    Does it mean they are demanding holidays? Only JHB and Tobes. The rest are just willing for it all to be "ok" and these questions are part of it.

    Not everyone is as sanguine, wise, or has all the stats at their fingertips plus an informed view of the viral epidemiology.
    Where do they want to go, Israel?
    They are just scared, depressed, nervous, anxious. But for sure smartarse comments will help I'm sure.
    I'm genuinely curious where they are hoping to go? Perhaps a dose of realism is in order.
    Rob they want it all to be ok later in the year. Will it be? Who knows. But that is what people, in all their illogical, ignorant, misinformed glory want.

    And hence the press are articulating this.

    Both the questions and the answers are part of the coping mechanism.
    The journalist was asking about holidays in weeks, not months. They should simply get a grip and stop asking.
    I know we're all on PB but you do understand how human beings work, don't you?

    Not all as clever as you, obvs, but the lumpen proletariat are a funny lot.
    I honestly don't see how anyone, lumpen or not, benefits from false hope. There's plenty of good news coming in by the day, but foreign holidays are obviously going to be impractical for a while and there's no point in pretending otherwise.
    It's not false hope. It's a process. First, it means it is in the public domain and, as @Anabobazina points out, ensures that the government - and scientists - are aware that millions of people want them, somehow, to work towards getting them to be able to go on holiday as soon as possible.

    Secondly, by articulating it it is then out in the open. So "When can I go on holiday?" is met with "Not yet." that addresses directly peoples' concerns and helps them reconcile themselves with the situation.
    Well, God knows the country is in need of some collective reassurance and counselling during this thing. In the past, my concern was that that kind of pressure could lead to too quick a loosening for the sake of some easy popularity, but it looks as if the government have learned that lesson this time around.
    Except that this approach contradicts the government's own narrative.

    Look at our wonderful vaccines!

    Careful they may NOT protect you! that's why we still need lockdown!!

    No it doesn't. Why do you keep peddling something you don't understand?

    1. The vaccines don't protect EVERYBODY, although they do protect most people.
    2. Not everyone is vaccinated.
    3. Time is needed after vaccination to build immunity.

    Which part of this don't you understand?
    Contrarian understands all of that. What he is saying is despite the government presenting the vaccines as a silver bullet reasons will always be found for more lockdowns because the public/gov opponents/the media/the killjoys have a taste for it.

    I think Contrarian over-eggs it rather and I don`t accept that the government is addicted to authoritarian measures.
    Either it is a silver bullet or it isn't

    If it is we no longer need lockdowns and we can indeed set a timetable for exit.

    If vaccination isn't a silver bullet then why are they trumpeting it like it is?

    The only answer is surely that the government's strategy is containment.

    Get through today, get to tomorrow.
    Shouldn't the timetable be set by events?
    Yes. Hospitalisations and deaths. What if, as the PM and the medicos were saying today, the timetable is set by just in case. Just in case new variants emerge. Just in case cases spike. Just in case the vaccine is not effective. Just in case...
    Completely agree. If 100k people per day are testing positive but only 10 people per day are going to hospital for it then there's no need for lockdown. We can't allow for this idea of zero COVID to take off. We need to aim to minimise hospitalisation and death from it, nothing more than that.
    I think Hancock knocked Zero Covid on the head the other week and the recent outbreaks in NZ and Aus have demonstrated the impossibility of the idea even there.

    Ferguson, the man whose modelling sent us into the first lockdown, has gone on record to say he is optimistic and he's still on NERVTAG. Ultimately, unless you believe in a global conspiracy we will be driven in part by what happens elsewhere. For example, if Tokyo runs an Olympic Games that results in a devastating second wave we won't have any spectators back in stadiums for the forseeable. However, if the games go without much of a hitch, then expect pressure to build here. I am confident that there will be crowds at US college and NFL football come September, similarly that will inform the debate about crowds in the Premier League.
    Thing is, the vaccines actually do make "zero" covid more feasible, both because they help suppress it in the first place, and because they slow down any outbreaks, thus making it possible to contain them without full lockdown. 10 hospitalisations in 100,000 cases isn't realistic when vaccine efficacy is 95%.
    Vaccine efficacy is 95% for mild symptoms. It's close to 100% against hospitalisation. 1 in 10,000 (99.99%) for an mRNA vaccine is actually realistic becuase we have two trials with 40k each and neither has had any hospitalisations in the vaccine arm.
    Max, I'm afraid this is getting way ahead of the evidence. Yes, there were no hospitalizations in the vaccine arm of the Pfizer trial. There might have been one hospitalization in the Moderna trial (I think it was a reaction to the vaccine, rather than COVID, but I'm not sure). But there were only about 15 hospitalizations, total, in the placebo arms. And I'm not even sure that all of them were hospitalized because of COVID, it might have been something else.

    Sure, 1 in 10,000 out of the population might be hospitalized if vaccinated (that's still a lot of people). Not 1 in 10,000 infected. Or at least we have nowhere near evidence to believe it.

    --AS
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 793
    MaxPB said:

    Gaussian said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    More holiday questions.

    Of course.

    Millions of people want to escape this and go on holiday.

    The prior question was about support for people with mental health problems. Having clarity about holidays one way or another, and asking about when and if is a part of the normalisation of our lives and a coping mechanism for people who are suffering.

    Does it mean they are demanding holidays? Only JHB and Tobes. The rest are just willing for it all to be "ok" and these questions are part of it.

    Not everyone is as sanguine, wise, or has all the stats at their fingertips plus an informed view of the viral epidemiology.
    Where do they want to go, Israel?
    They are just scared, depressed, nervous, anxious. But for sure smartarse comments will help I'm sure.
    I'm genuinely curious where they are hoping to go? Perhaps a dose of realism is in order.
    Rob they want it all to be ok later in the year. Will it be? Who knows. But that is what people, in all their illogical, ignorant, misinformed glory want.

    And hence the press are articulating this.

    Both the questions and the answers are part of the coping mechanism.
    The journalist was asking about holidays in weeks, not months. They should simply get a grip and stop asking.
    I know we're all on PB but you do understand how human beings work, don't you?

    Not all as clever as you, obvs, but the lumpen proletariat are a funny lot.
    I honestly don't see how anyone, lumpen or not, benefits from false hope. There's plenty of good news coming in by the day, but foreign holidays are obviously going to be impractical for a while and there's no point in pretending otherwise.
    It's not false hope. It's a process. First, it means it is in the public domain and, as @Anabobazina points out, ensures that the government - and scientists - are aware that millions of people want them, somehow, to work towards getting them to be able to go on holiday as soon as possible.

    Secondly, by articulating it it is then out in the open. So "When can I go on holiday?" is met with "Not yet." that addresses directly peoples' concerns and helps them reconcile themselves with the situation.
    Well, God knows the country is in need of some collective reassurance and counselling during this thing. In the past, my concern was that that kind of pressure could lead to too quick a loosening for the sake of some easy popularity, but it looks as if the government have learned that lesson this time around.
    Except that this approach contradicts the government's own narrative.

    Look at our wonderful vaccines!

    Careful they may NOT protect you! that's why we still need lockdown!!

    No it doesn't. Why do you keep peddling something you don't understand?

    1. The vaccines don't protect EVERYBODY, although they do protect most people.
    2. Not everyone is vaccinated.
    3. Time is needed after vaccination to build immunity.

    Which part of this don't you understand?
    Contrarian understands all of that. What he is saying is despite the government presenting the vaccines as a silver bullet reasons will always be found for more lockdowns because the public/gov opponents/the media/the killjoys have a taste for it.

    I think Contrarian over-eggs it rather and I don`t accept that the government is addicted to authoritarian measures.
    Either it is a silver bullet or it isn't

    If it is we no longer need lockdowns and we can indeed set a timetable for exit.

    If vaccination isn't a silver bullet then why are they trumpeting it like it is?

    The only answer is surely that the government's strategy is containment.

    Get through today, get to tomorrow.
    Shouldn't the timetable be set by events?
    Yes. Hospitalisations and deaths. What if, as the PM and the medicos were saying today, the timetable is set by just in case. Just in case new variants emerge. Just in case cases spike. Just in case the vaccine is not effective. Just in case...
    Completely agree. If 100k people per day are testing positive but only 10 people per day are going to hospital for it then there's no need for lockdown. We can't allow for this idea of zero COVID to take off. We need to aim to minimise hospitalisation and death from it, nothing more than that.
    I think Hancock knocked Zero Covid on the head the other week and the recent outbreaks in NZ and Aus have demonstrated the impossibility of the idea even there.

    Ferguson, the man whose modelling sent us into the first lockdown, has gone on record to say he is optimistic and he's still on NERVTAG. Ultimately, unless you believe in a global conspiracy we will be driven in part by what happens elsewhere. For example, if Tokyo runs an Olympic Games that results in a devastating second wave we won't have any spectators back in stadiums for the forseeable. However, if the games go without much of a hitch, then expect pressure to build here. I am confident that there will be crowds at US college and NFL football come September, similarly that will inform the debate about crowds in the Premier League.
    Thing is, the vaccines actually do make "zero" covid more feasible, both because they help suppress it in the first place, and because they slow down any outbreaks, thus making it possible to contain them without full lockdown. 10 hospitalisations in 100,000 cases isn't realistic when vaccine efficacy is 95%.
    Vaccine efficacy is 95% for mild symptoms. It's close to 100% against hospitalisation. 1 in 10,000 (99.99%) for an mRNA vaccine is actually realistic becuase we have two trials with 40k each and neither has had any hospitalisations in the vaccine arm.
    Only a small proportion of those would have been exposed to the virus, so that is not a valid conclusion to draw from those numbers.

    This Israel study found 92% efficacy against serious illness after two Pfizer doses (which is still bloody brilliant):

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-symptomatic-cases-drop-by-94-with-pfizer-jab-israeli-study-shows-12218773
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Gibraltar has now overtaken Israel as the country or territory with the highest per capita Covid vaccination rate in the world.

    In terms of countries with a population in excess of a million, the current top ten are:

    Israel - 74.4 per 100
    UAE - 51.1
    UK - 23.0
    US - 15.8
    Bahrain - 14.6
    Serbia - 14.0
    Chile - 9.9
    Denmark - 6.9
    Romania - 5.8
    Slovenia - 5.7

    The EU average is now 4.8 per 100.

    Source: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,226
    kle4 said:

    Tut tut - Guy Verhofstadt making a Europe/EU conflation when talking about negotation of contracts. For shame.

    https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1360554953446686722?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1360554953446686722|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://order-order.com/

    Not sure why he's split his video up into so many discrete chunks that are so short though. I do like the shots of reading and highlighting contracts however, makes for a more dynamic video than merely a statement.

    Though given all the incoming doses, not sure they would see a need to follow some of his suggestions for renegotiation.

    Confession: I have a soft spot for Guy Verhoefsdtattdat. (sp?)

    He seems rather amusing, and he is an honest Federalist. He wants a united Europe, under one democratic government. I believe that is Utopian, but it is an honourable cause, much better than the evil anti-democratic, crypto-technocratic EU that has, so far, been constructed, with no apparent prospect of real reform.

    Apparently he is, like Juncker, a drinking buddy of Farage. It would not surprise me.

    He is also right in his criticisms, even if he elides EU/Europe. The vaccine programme is such a major EU fuck up
    I am not sure it will be forgotten that quickly, even if the market floods with jabs in the summer. People will remember.


    Whether that leaves EU citizens wanting more EU or less, I have no idea.

    What I have noted in myself is that I am now referring to Europe when I mean "Europe minus the UK" - ie the Continent. Mentally, I used to think of the UK as part of "Europe". I no longer do so. Of course logically, geographically, culturally, we are and always will be a hugely important part of Europe. But as a shorthand, for me, the concept "Europe" no longer automatically includes the UK. It is the "UK & Europe".

    To give a concrete example. If a non-European asked me, "well, what do they do in Europe?", I would not reflexively answer, "well this is what we do in Britain, part of Europe". That has already gone.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Gaussian said:

    MaxPB said:

    Gaussian said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    More holiday questions.

    Of course.

    Millions of people want to escape this and go on holiday.

    The prior question was about support for people with mental health problems. Having clarity about holidays one way or another, and asking about when and if is a part of the normalisation of our lives and a coping mechanism for people who are suffering.

    Does it mean they are demanding holidays? Only JHB and Tobes. The rest are just willing for it all to be "ok" and these questions are part of it.

    Not everyone is as sanguine, wise, or has all the stats at their fingertips plus an informed view of the viral epidemiology.
    Where do they want to go, Israel?
    They are just scared, depressed, nervous, anxious. But for sure smartarse comments will help I'm sure.
    I'm genuinely curious where they are hoping to go? Perhaps a dose of realism is in order.
    Rob they want it all to be ok later in the year. Will it be? Who knows. But that is what people, in all their illogical, ignorant, misinformed glory want.

    And hence the press are articulating this.

    Both the questions and the answers are part of the coping mechanism.
    The journalist was asking about holidays in weeks, not months. They should simply get a grip and stop asking.
    I know we're all on PB but you do understand how human beings work, don't you?

    Not all as clever as you, obvs, but the lumpen proletariat are a funny lot.
    I honestly don't see how anyone, lumpen or not, benefits from false hope. There's plenty of good news coming in by the day, but foreign holidays are obviously going to be impractical for a while and there's no point in pretending otherwise.
    It's not false hope. It's a process. First, it means it is in the public domain and, as @Anabobazina points out, ensures that the government - and scientists - are aware that millions of people want them, somehow, to work towards getting them to be able to go on holiday as soon as possible.

    Secondly, by articulating it it is then out in the open. So "When can I go on holiday?" is met with "Not yet." that addresses directly peoples' concerns and helps them reconcile themselves with the situation.
    Well, God knows the country is in need of some collective reassurance and counselling during this thing. In the past, my concern was that that kind of pressure could lead to too quick a loosening for the sake of some easy popularity, but it looks as if the government have learned that lesson this time around.
    Except that this approach contradicts the government's own narrative.

    Look at our wonderful vaccines!

    Careful they may NOT protect you! that's why we still need lockdown!!

    No it doesn't. Why do you keep peddling something you don't understand?

    1. The vaccines don't protect EVERYBODY, although they do protect most people.
    2. Not everyone is vaccinated.
    3. Time is needed after vaccination to build immunity.

    Which part of this don't you understand?
    Contrarian understands all of that. What he is saying is despite the government presenting the vaccines as a silver bullet reasons will always be found for more lockdowns because the public/gov opponents/the media/the killjoys have a taste for it.

    I think Contrarian over-eggs it rather and I don`t accept that the government is addicted to authoritarian measures.
    Either it is a silver bullet or it isn't

    If it is we no longer need lockdowns and we can indeed set a timetable for exit.

    If vaccination isn't a silver bullet then why are they trumpeting it like it is?

    The only answer is surely that the government's strategy is containment.

    Get through today, get to tomorrow.
    Shouldn't the timetable be set by events?
    Yes. Hospitalisations and deaths. What if, as the PM and the medicos were saying today, the timetable is set by just in case. Just in case new variants emerge. Just in case cases spike. Just in case the vaccine is not effective. Just in case...
    Completely agree. If 100k people per day are testing positive but only 10 people per day are going to hospital for it then there's no need for lockdown. We can't allow for this idea of zero COVID to take off. We need to aim to minimise hospitalisation and death from it, nothing more than that.
    I think Hancock knocked Zero Covid on the head the other week and the recent outbreaks in NZ and Aus have demonstrated the impossibility of the idea even there.

    Ferguson, the man whose modelling sent us into the first lockdown, has gone on record to say he is optimistic and he's still on NERVTAG. Ultimately, unless you believe in a global conspiracy we will be driven in part by what happens elsewhere. For example, if Tokyo runs an Olympic Games that results in a devastating second wave we won't have any spectators back in stadiums for the forseeable. However, if the games go without much of a hitch, then expect pressure to build here. I am confident that there will be crowds at US college and NFL football come September, similarly that will inform the debate about crowds in the Premier League.
    Thing is, the vaccines actually do make "zero" covid more feasible, both because they help suppress it in the first place, and because they slow down any outbreaks, thus making it possible to contain them without full lockdown. 10 hospitalisations in 100,000 cases isn't realistic when vaccine efficacy is 95%.
    Vaccine efficacy is 95% for mild symptoms. It's close to 100% against hospitalisation. 1 in 10,000 (99.99%) for an mRNA vaccine is actually realistic becuase we have two trials with 40k each and neither has had any hospitalisations in the vaccine arm.
    Only a small proportion of those would have been exposed to the virus, so that is not a valid conclusion to draw from those numbers.

    This Israel study found 92% efficacy against serious illness after two Pfizer doses (which is still bloody brilliant):

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-symptomatic-cases-drop-by-94-with-pfizer-jab-israeli-study-shows-12218773
    You're misreading that. It says a 92% reduction in severe cases and a 94% efficacy overall. That means in 100,000 cases where previously around 60k were symptomatic and of those 6k would get serious symptoms and around 2k serious enough to go hospital and 1k serious enough to die (rough numbers, I know), now we get a situation where only 6k people get any symptom and 480 of them have serious symptoms, we don't know how that currently translates to hospitalisations becuase they haven't released the data, also don't forget that the vaccine groups in Israel are predominantly those who are older (same as here) so they are predisposed to serious symptoms, among the wider population that reduction might go up.
  • Scott_xP said:
    The problem is that it would be unfair to rely upon vaccine passports until everyone in the country has had an offer to get their vaccine.

    But by the time everyone has had their offer to get their vaccine then what purpose would the passports serve as surely domestic restrictions would be done by then.

    Only thing a passport maybe makes sense for domestically is large stadium etc events.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,784
    DougSeal said:

    Lennon said:

    MaxPB said:

    The R in London has completely dropped off, I think we're at just over 0.6 so I think we need to start looking into whether herd immunity has been reached in some boroughs.

    How would you propose testing that hypothesis? (Which I think is potentially valid - but if so will likely be through a combination of Vaccine, Antibodies from previous COVID infection, T-Cell from previous COVID, and T-Cell from previous related infection - so non straightforward to test for)

    Also - it might be the case that herd immunity has been reached *with the current lockdown rules in place* - ie that herd immunity has been reached amongst hospital workers, bus drivers etc. but that the general populace is still more vulnerable.
    I agree with all of that. It is a very difficult hypothesis to test. However, globally, if we assume in the aggregate the rate of human contact is similar throughout the world, then I cannot fathom an explanation as to the current downward slope of the below graph unless the virus is running out of people to infect, or at least cause symptoms in. It's been doing this for over a month now - tomorrow or the day after the seven day average will be half what it was at the peak on 13 January.


    Herd immunity amongst the types of people who are still going out at the moment is not necessarily the same as herd immunity in the general population when things open up.

    Same when case numbers came down sharply in some places when student residence outbreaks burned out. That offshoot from the overall herd gained substantial immunity.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    Leon said:

    Personally speaking, there is an air - literally - of optimism in north London tonight.

    Today it was occasionally sunny and 13C at peak. Even now it is 9C, dry and mild: a pleasant, fresh, very walkable evening. This feels like spring, and it probably is (the forecast next week is for 18C and sun!)

    We are, at least in the south of England. over the hump of winter. For sure it will come back and have another bite, but winter is beaten.

    It's difficult to know how this will affect us psychologically. If we get an amazing, sunny spring like last year - unlikely, but not impossible - the pressure to unlock will be intense, as cases and deaths fall off a cliff. If they don't open the pubs, the parks will become ad hoc beer gardens, anyway. Tricky.

    Was above freezing up here today.
    After a week of bitter, painful cold, and a week of continuous, and I mean continuous, precipitation the week before, it was actually pleasant to be outside.
    I, too, detected an air of optimism. Or at the very least a lifting of the literal and metaphorical depression.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,226

    Gibraltar has now overtaken Israel as the country or territory with the highest per capita Covid vaccination rate in the world.

    In terms of countries with a population in excess of a million, the current top ten are:

    Israel - 74.4 per 100
    UAE - 51.1
    UK - 23.0
    US - 15.8
    Bahrain - 14.6
    Serbia - 14.0
    Chile - 9.9
    Denmark - 6.9
    Romania - 5.8
    Slovenia - 5.7

    The EU average is now 4.8 per 100.

    Source: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

    The UK has done a brilliant job of jabbing its overseas territories. The Caymans, Bermuda, Turks and Caicos, Anguilla, Gibraltar, Falklands, etc, are all world leading in Jabs-per-tricep.


    https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/haiti/article248354030.html
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Time to see the numpty refuseniks on Panorama.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,054
    MaxPB said:

    Gaussian said:

    MaxPB said:

    Gaussian said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    More holiday questions.

    Of course.

    Millions of people want to escape this and go on holiday.

    The prior question was about support for people with mental health problems. Having clarity about holidays one way or another, and asking about when and if is a part of the normalisation of our lives and a coping mechanism for people who are suffering.

    Does it mean they are demanding holidays? Only JHB and Tobes. The rest are just willing for it all to be "ok" and these questions are part of it.

    Not everyone is as sanguine, wise, or has all the stats at their fingertips plus an informed view of the viral epidemiology.
    Where do they want to go, Israel?
    They are just scared, depressed, nervous, anxious. But for sure smartarse comments will help I'm sure.
    I'm genuinely curious where they are hoping to go? Perhaps a dose of realism is in order.
    Rob they want it all to be ok later in the year. Will it be? Who knows. But that is what people, in all their illogical, ignorant, misinformed glory want.

    And hence the press are articulating this.

    Both the questions and the answers are part of the coping mechanism.
    The journalist was asking about holidays in weeks, not months. They should simply get a grip and stop asking.
    I know we're all on PB but you do understand how human beings work, don't you?

    Not all as clever as you, obvs, but the lumpen proletariat are a funny lot.
    I honestly don't see how anyone, lumpen or not, benefits from false hope. There's plenty of good news coming in by the day, but foreign holidays are obviously going to be impractical for a while and there's no point in pretending otherwise.
    It's not false hope. It's a process. First, it means it is in the public domain and, as @Anabobazina points out, ensures that the government - and scientists - are aware that millions of people want them, somehow, to work towards getting them to be able to go on holiday as soon as possible.

    Secondly, by articulating it it is then out in the open. So "When can I go on holiday?" is met with "Not yet." that addresses directly peoples' concerns and helps them reconcile themselves with the situation.
    Well, God knows the country is in need of some collective reassurance and counselling during this thing. In the past, my concern was that that kind of pressure could lead to too quick a loosening for the sake of some easy popularity, but it looks as if the government have learned that lesson this time around.
    Except that this approach contradicts the government's own narrative.

    Look at our wonderful vaccines!

    Careful they may NOT protect you! that's why we still need lockdown!!

    No it doesn't. Why do you keep peddling something you don't understand?

    1. The vaccines don't protect EVERYBODY, although they do protect most people.
    2. Not everyone is vaccinated.
    3. Time is needed after vaccination to build immunity.

    Which part of this don't you understand?
    Contrarian understands all of that. What he is saying is despite the government presenting the vaccines as a silver bullet reasons will always be found for more lockdowns because the public/gov opponents/the media/the killjoys have a taste for it.

    I think Contrarian over-eggs it rather and I don`t accept that the government is addicted to authoritarian measures.
    Either it is a silver bullet or it isn't

    If it is we no longer need lockdowns and we can indeed set a timetable for exit.

    If vaccination isn't a silver bullet then why are they trumpeting it like it is?

    The only answer is surely that the government's strategy is containment.

    Get through today, get to tomorrow.
    Shouldn't the timetable be set by events?
    Yes. Hospitalisations and deaths. What if, as the PM and the medicos were saying today, the timetable is set by just in case. Just in case new variants emerge. Just in case cases spike. Just in case the vaccine is not effective. Just in case...
    Completely agree. If 100k people per day are testing positive but only 10 people per day are going to hospital for it then there's no need for lockdown. We can't allow for this idea of zero COVID to take off. We need to aim to minimise hospitalisation and death from it, nothing more than that.
    I think Hancock knocked Zero Covid on the head the other week and the recent outbreaks in NZ and Aus have demonstrated the impossibility of the idea even there.

    Ferguson, the man whose modelling sent us into the first lockdown, has gone on record to say he is optimistic and he's still on NERVTAG. Ultimately, unless you believe in a global conspiracy we will be driven in part by what happens elsewhere. For example, if Tokyo runs an Olympic Games that results in a devastating second wave we won't have any spectators back in stadiums for the forseeable. However, if the games go without much of a hitch, then expect pressure to build here. I am confident that there will be crowds at US college and NFL football come September, similarly that will inform the debate about crowds in the Premier League.
    Thing is, the vaccines actually do make "zero" covid more feasible, both because they help suppress it in the first place, and because they slow down any outbreaks, thus making it possible to contain them without full lockdown. 10 hospitalisations in 100,000 cases isn't realistic when vaccine efficacy is 95%.
    Vaccine efficacy is 95% for mild symptoms. It's close to 100% against hospitalisation. 1 in 10,000 (99.99%) for an mRNA vaccine is actually realistic becuase we have two trials with 40k each and neither has had any hospitalisations in the vaccine arm.
    Only a small proportion of those would have been exposed to the virus, so that is not a valid conclusion to draw from those numbers.

    This Israel study found 92% efficacy against serious illness after two Pfizer doses (which is still bloody brilliant):

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-symptomatic-cases-drop-by-94-with-pfizer-jab-israeli-study-shows-12218773
    You're misreading that. It says a 92% reduction in severe cases and a 94% efficacy overall. That means in 100,000 cases where previously around 60k were symptomatic and of those 6k would get serious symptoms and around 2k serious enough to go hospital and 1k serious enough to die (rough numbers, I know), now we get a situation where only 6k people get any symptom and 480 of them have serious symptoms, we don't know how that currently translates to hospitalisations becuase they haven't released the data, also don't forget that the vaccine groups in Israel are predominantly those who are older (same as here) so they are predisposed to serious symptoms, among the wider population that reduction might go up.
    In Maccabi, with 500 000 immunised, a week after the second vaccine 544 cases have been reported, with 4 serious, and no deaths so far. As time goes on, we would expect these numbers to creep up, but so far appears good.
  • Scott_xP said:
    The problem is that it would be unfair to rely upon vaccine passports until everyone in the country has had an offer to get their vaccine.

    But by the time everyone has had their offer to get their vaccine then what purpose would the passports serve as surely domestic restrictions would be done by then.

    Only thing a passport maybe makes sense for domestically is large stadium etc events.
    Stopping under 50s going to the pub, cinema, gigs when they reopen because they don't have a vaccine passport seems a pretty surefire way to me to guarantee serious unrest.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,054
    Leon said:

    Gibraltar has now overtaken Israel as the country or territory with the highest per capita Covid vaccination rate in the world.

    In terms of countries with a population in excess of a million, the current top ten are:

    Israel - 74.4 per 100
    UAE - 51.1
    UK - 23.0
    US - 15.8
    Bahrain - 14.6
    Serbia - 14.0
    Chile - 9.9
    Denmark - 6.9
    Romania - 5.8
    Slovenia - 5.7

    The EU average is now 4.8 per 100.

    Source: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

    The UK has done a brilliant job of jabbing its overseas territories. The Caymans, Bermuda, Turks and Caicos, Anguilla, Gibraltar, Falklands, etc, are all world leading in Jabs-per-tricep.


    https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/haiti/article248354030.html
    Deltoid, not triceps.
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