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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The monthly projection from Electoral Calculus sees the LAB

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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,247

    RodCrosby said:

    Superb documentary by Clarkson on the convoys on BBC2.

    The Merchant Navy - 25% of these guys never came back.

    'Unacceptable Losses' in any other theatre of war....

    My Grandfather was in the RN in WW2. After being sunk 3 times in the Med and Atlantic he was assigned as naval liaison to the armed Merchantmen (DEMS or Defensively Armed Merchant Ships) and then volunteered for the Tankers as it was an extra shilling a day.

    He died in 1975 but we are just waiting to get his Arctic Convoy medal after the announcement last year.
    My granddad was DEMS as well. He died a couple of years ago, aged 101 and 1 day.

    He had so few stories, mainly because he seemed rather haunted by the experience. He was exempted, but volunteered. He lived in Derby and Lincolnshire, had three children, and had never been to sea.

    We concentrate too much on the few of the Battle of Britain, and the men who fought on the beaches of Normandy. There were many other people who risked their lives as well in all walks of life helping the war effort.

    Maybe there should be a I-bloody-well-worked-through-the-worst-of-what-those-bastards-could-throws-at-us medal.
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    :)

    Good Lord. Drinking whilst posting. The man is clearly a bounder!

    fitalass said:

    IIRC, John Hemming used to be an occasional poster here on PB a few years back?

    Independent - MP John Hemming suspended from Mumsnet after flouting anonymity guidelines

    "It might be regarded as a happy hunting ground for the crucial female votes of Middle England but Mumsnet has again proved it can be a jungle for politicians hoping to reach out beyond the confines of Westminster.

    It was a lesson that has been learnt by an MP who it emerged on Thursday has been suspended from using the site after breaching rules safeguarding the anonymity of users taking part in online debates.

    John Hemming, who represents Birmingham Yardley was originally reported to moderators when he became embroiled in a long-running discussion in the controversial case of an Italian woman who was forced to undergo a Caesarean operation and her child taken into care by Essex County Council.

    The Liberal Democrat, who also admitted drinking whilst using the forum, contacted the social network after he posted a transcript of Italian court proceedings which identified some of the protagonists in the case breaching UK reporting restrictions protecting children. The post was deleted."


    The Liberal Democrat, who also admitted drinking whilst using the forum,

    LOL on that basis Mike better close PB down !
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,255

    RodCrosby said:


    The Merchant Navy - 25% of these guys never came back.

    'Unacceptable Losses' in any other theatre of war....

    Not really, Bomber Command ran at 45% casualty rates, while the U-Boat arm of the Kriegsmarine ended WWII with about 80% lost if I recall correctly.
    Still disgraceful the lack of recognition they received though.

    Bomber Command didn't get any recognition after the war either. Not Churchill's finest hour - leaving them out of his end of the war speech thanking all those who fought.

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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Paddy Ashdown in the Times, says voters' trust is declining collapsing in the things like the BBC, NHS, etc,

    This decline was deterring some people from voting and pushing others into the arms of “demagogues” such as Nigel Farage, the UKIP leader, and Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Front in France, whom he brackets together. “I’m reminded of the terrible line in Larkin, ‘England, with a cast of crooks and tarts’. Now I’m not saying that’s true. [However] I think all of these add up to a mood of Jacobinism which I think is quite frightening . . .

    Even Larkin was outdone by my favourite description of Russia under Yeltsin and the oligarchs:

    Russia: a country of cowboys and callgirls.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,040

    Paddy Ashdown in the Times, says voters' trust is declining collapsing in the things like the BBC, NHS, etc,

    This decline was deterring some people from voting and pushing others into the arms of “demagogues” such as Nigel Farage, the UKIP leader, and Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Front in France, whom he brackets together. “I’m reminded of the terrible line in Larkin, ‘England, with a cast of crooks and tarts’. Now I’m not saying that’s true. [However] I think all of these add up to a mood of Jacobinism which I think is quite frightening . . .

    I would hope that, given a choice between 90 minutes of Sherlock last night, and 60 minutes of Clarkson tonight, anyone with a scintilla of intelligence would have chosen Clarkson.

    An amazing programme. Worth a month's licence fee in anyone's money.

    Don't need to choose ;)
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    A brilliant documentary, and Clarkson leaps up in my estimation.

    The interviews with the old sailors were the best bit. The bravery of ordinary men in extraordinary circumstances is always humbling.

    Spellbinding.

    I would hope that, given a choice between 90 minutes of Sherlock last night, and 60 minutes of Clarkson tonight, anyone with a scintilla of intelligence would have chosen Clarkson.

    An amazing programme. Worth a month's licence fee in anyone's money.

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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    Twitter
    Jeremy Clarkson ‏@JeremyClarkson 12m
    Glad you enjoyed PQ17. But I just told the story. Those guys in the film are what made it incredible. And 3 have died since we made it
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    RodCrosby said:


    The Merchant Navy - 25% of these guys never came back.

    'Unacceptable Losses' in any other theatre of war....

    Not really, Bomber Command ran at 45% casualty rates, while the U-Boat arm of the Kriegsmarine ended WWII with about 80% lost if I recall correctly.
    Still disgraceful the lack of recognition they received though.

    I was aware of the U-Boats, but of course they were on the other side (Doenitz lost both his own sons, btw - one on his 21st birthday)

    As for Bomber Command, yes horrendous losses, but you must remember a significant proportion of those sadly were in training, before they even dropped a single bomb!.

    The Merchant Navy were civvies, and were often attacked or spat at when home on leave - mistaken for draft-dodgers or conchies...

    No cross marks the place where now we lie
    What happened is known but to us
    You asked, and we gave our lives to protect
    Our land from the enemy curse
    No Flanders Field where poppies blow;
    No Gleaming Crosses, row on row;
    No Unnamed Tomb for all to see
    And pause -- and wonder who we might be
    The Sailors’ Valhalla is where we lie
    On the ocean bed, watching ships pass by
    Sailing in safety now thru’ the waves
    Often right over our sea-locked graves
    We ask you just to remember us.


    John Curtin, Australian wartime Prime Minister, said of the merchant seaman: "Whenever you see a man in the street wearing the distinctive MN badge, raise your hat to him because without these gallant men the war would be lost."

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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2014
    Is Ballance a Saffer?

    Edit. A Zimbabwean
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,040
    Are we playing 2 keepers ?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,543
    Evening all. Have been out first footing today and I have still not managed to log onto the site with my new Iphone 5. It will not recognise the password.

    On topic we have down this before but the now cast is a reflection of the random results that can be thrown up by uneven allocations of the votes cast. The fact that there is a 5% chance of a tory majority with a Labour lead of 6% strikes me as remarkable. I suppose it might be possible if the bias in favour of Labour was completely reversed and then some but is there really a 5% chance of this? Surely not. Even as a now cast it somewhat lacks credibility.

    On a more interesting note I was surprised to note over the last couple of days a much more cautious assessment of economic prospects for the year from AveryLP based, as I understood it, on the OBR assumption that 2013's astonishing over performance was achieved by bringing forward future growth rather than actually increasing the overall quantity of growth.

    I personally do not believe this, at least in the short term. I think growth in the UK economy this year will be very close to 3% as the BoE seems to be assuming. The increasing levels of economic confidence will swing into investment giving a second leg to the recovery and stronger growth and I expect a net contribution from exports as well (by reducing although by no means eliminating the trade deficit).

    On the other hand I remain much more pessimistic about the longer term than the OBR or the BoE seems to be. The damage done over the last decade to our economy is deep rooted and fundamental. We are so far from living within our means either as a country or in the public finances that there will ultimately be a very, very heavy price to pay in living standards. The short term improvements do not come close to addressing an economy that is not competitive enough, does not sell enough to the world, consumes too much and has borrowed and spent their childrens' inheritance for a couple of generations.

    Still. as Mr Prince pointed out in 2007 "“As long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.” 2014 should be a year for dancing and hopefully a tory recovery.

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    @DavidL, are you using safari on your iPhone?

    For some reason vanilla doesn't like safarri.

    Try using chrome.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,543

    @DavidL, are you using safari on your iPhone?

    For some reason vanilla doesn't like safarri.

    Try using chrome.

    Thanks TSE, I will try that. It is quite frustrating.

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    I'm cheering for Australia.

    Dropping Joe Root is an utter disgrace.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Steven Finn must be well pissed off... We have bowled rubbish and he hasn't had a look in

    Carberry stays, Root dropped... Hmm like Carbs but he's not the future

    Think someone mentioned Nick Compton being unlucky, have to agree
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,543
    Really surprised that Root has got the chop. He has done no worse than most of the batsmen and is apparently a better spin bowler than Panesar (at least in Cook's eyes). Bell at 3 must be right though.

    So will England lose this test in 3, 4 or 5 days? Surely this is the question.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,040

    I'm cheering for Australia.

    Dropping Joe Root is an utter disgrace.

    For Prior ffsake lol
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    I'm cheering for Australia.

    Dropping Joe Root is an utter disgrace.

    No need to go overboard.

    He will probably benefit from the rest.

    I'm worried his bowling will be missed if Borthwick is a Kerrigan
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,728
    edited January 2014
    DavidL said:

    Really surprised that Root has got the chop. He has done no worse than most of the batsmen and is apparently a better spin bowler than Panesar (at least in Cook's eyes). Bell at 3 must be right though.

    So will England lose this test in 3, 4 or 5 days? Surely this is the question.

    I'd prefer them to lose it on Saturday night/early hours of Sunday.

    Monday is my first day back at work after nearly three weeks off and really shouldn't be going to work after going to be bed around 1.30am on Monday morning.
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    I'm cheering for Australia.

    Dropping Joe Root is an utter disgrace.

    No need to go overboard.

    He will probably benefit from the rest.

    I'm worried his bowling will be missed if Borthwick is a Kerrigan
    I have a 14/1 betting slip on Australia winning 5 nil.

    I think because of Borthwick's batting ability (and approach in all formats) he'll get a long stint in the England side.

    Plus, I think Monty's not very good, and doesn't have the confidence of his captain, so his career is over.
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    One of the intriguing suggestions (backed by survey research) is that people with strong ideological views become LESS accurate at prediction when they get more information, because they use it to build on their rigid theories and make themselves feel they're yet more perfect than before.

    It may well not be related to ideology, but knowledge leading to over-confidence. There's a similar effect in financial markets: for example, there was a large study (I think in Denmark), which found that people who invest in shares in the same industry that they work in do less well than average investors. That's because they over-estimate the extent to which they understand the industry and the drivers of share prices.
    Disasters aren't caused by the things you don't know.

    But the things you are certain of but are wrong about.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm cheering for Australia.

    Dropping Joe Root is an utter disgrace.

    For Prior ffsake lol
    Eh? Priors not playing, it's Ballance, Rankin and Borthwick ( one Englishman in, three out , can't be bad I suppose)

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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    Twitter
    Jeremy Clarkson ‏@JeremyClarkson 3m
    One thing I didn't have time to say in tonight's PQ17 story. The behaviour of the German submariners was exemplary.

    Jeremy Clarkson ‏@JeremyClarkson 50s
    And another. It was David Cameron who personally insisted the Arctic Star medal was awarded last year. Credit where credit's due.
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    I see SeanT's amused by the Guardian alread reaching stage one of the immigration denail scale.

    But has he noted the blog immediately prior to his:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/
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    Fred Boycott ‏@FredBoycott 1m

    Should be singing God Save Our Team ....
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,040
    edited January 2014
    England choosing to bowl ... lol

    Laid England for a tenner for my starter for ten.

    Aus will bat .... and bat and bat... and bring the draw in.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,040
    We;re going to get spanked I think. 3.70 was too short for England anyhow - given we're bowling 1st.
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    Steve Kilner ‏@1StevieKilner 1m

    @FredBoycott Good to see @joeroot05 reacting to his shocking omission in the right manner #Ashes

    pic.twitter.com/EJRmXierU5
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    Eight left handers in the England team!
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,543
    Brave of short leg to throw that ball to the keeper.
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    Pulpstar said:

    We;re going to get spanked I think. 3.70 was too short for England anyhow - given we're bowling 1st.

    3.7? Must have come in a long way.

    Rankin will steamroller the buggers.

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    The England XI for the first test against Sri Lanka in June

    Cook, Robson, Bell, Pietersen, Root, Stokes, Buttler, Broad, Borthwick, Anderson, Mills.

    Discuss.
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    Whatever happened to Adil Rashid?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,040

    Pulpstar said:

    We;re going to get spanked I think. 3.70 was too short for England anyhow - given we're bowling 1st.

    3.7? Must have come in a long way.

    Rankin will steamroller the buggers.

    I took an upside of £10 at 3.75 - 3.95/4.0 now ;p. Early days of though.
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    The England XI for the first test against Sri Lanka in June

    Cook, Robson, Bell, Pietersen, Root, Stokes, Buttler, Broad, Borthwick, Anderson, Mills.

    Discuss.

    Mills? You must be joking.

    Robson and Buttler might come in if this side underperforms again. Ballance would also have to fail for that to be the team.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,543
    Jimmy still bowling too short. Is it too harsh to say he is bowling for his career here?
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    The England XI for the first test against Sri Lanka in June

    Cook, Robson, Bell, Pietersen, Root, Stokes, Buttler, Broad, Borthwick, Anderson, Mills.

    Discuss.

    Mills? You must be joking.

    Robson and Buttler might come in if this side underperforms again. Ballance would also have to fail for that to be the team.
    New Selectors, plus they may fancy a tearaway fast bowler.
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    I'm so glad I decided not to go out for this Ashes series.
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    Whatever happened to Adil Rashid?

    I bet he wishes he knew.

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    The England XI for the first test against Sri Lanka in June

    Cook, Robson, Bell, Pietersen, Root, Stokes, Buttler, Broad, Borthwick, Anderson, Mills.

    Discuss.

    Mills? You must be joking.

    Robson and Buttler might come in if this side underperforms again. Ballance would also have to fail for that to be the team.
    New Selectors, plus they may fancy a tearaway fast bowler.
    He's done nothing to suggest he's ready other than bowling fast.
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    DavidL said:

    Jimmy still bowling too short. Is it too harsh to say he is bowling for his career here?

    Shouldn't be harsh. He's been awful for just about as long as his prior success allows.
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    The England XI for the first test against Sri Lanka in June

    Cook, Robson, Bell, Pietersen, Root, Stokes, Buttler, Broad, Borthwick, Anderson, Mills.

    Discuss.

    Mills? You must be joking.

    Robson and Buttler might come in if this side underperforms again. Ballance would also have to fail for that to be the team.
    New Selectors, plus they may fancy a tearaway fast bowler.
    He's done nothing to suggest he's ready other than bowling fast.
    Rankin it is then.

    This is 90s cricket, mass changes in a test.

    We just need some one cap wonders.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,040
    Lol pathetic field setting here. We've chosen to bowl first. The reason for that is to get wickets not worrying about whether we go for 4 rather than 2.5 runs an over...
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    Pulpstar said:

    Lol pathetic field setting here. We've chosen to bowl first. The reason for that is to get wickets not worrying about whether we go for 4 rather than 2.5 runs an over...

    That fielding move has made me go to bed.

    Sack Cook.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,543

    The England XI for the first test against Sri Lanka in June

    Cook, Robson, Bell, Pietersen, Root, Stokes, Buttler, Broad, Borthwick, Anderson, Mills.

    Discuss.

    Mills? You must be joking.

    Robson and Buttler might come in if this side underperforms again. Ballance would also have to fail for that to be the team.
    New Selectors, plus they may fancy a tearaway fast bowler.
    He's done nothing to suggest he's ready other than bowling fast.
    Rankin it is then.

    This is 90s cricket, mass changes in a test.

    We just need some one cap wonders.
    It's a tricky one though. There seemed such an air of complacency about the England team, so many players who thought they deserved their place no matter what, that wholesale changes are needed.

    This team has not performed well consistently for a long time. They got away with a few good sessions and basically giving little away. Consistency of selection can be a weakness as much as a strength.

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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Was

    The England XI for the first test against Sri Lanka in June

    Cook, Robson, Bell, Pietersen, Root, Stokes, Buttler, Broad, Borthwick, Anderson, Mills.

    Discuss.

    Mills? You must be joking.

    Robson and Buttler might come in if this side underperforms again. Ballance would also have to fail for that to be the team.
    New Selectors, plus they may fancy a tearaway fast bowler.
    He's done nothing to suggest he's ready other than bowling fast.
    Who is Robson?

    Why is no one talking up Finn? Tymal Mills is better now is he?! Crazy, Finn is only 24 and I reckon will be England's main man in a year or two

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    isam said:

    Was

    The England XI for the first test against Sri Lanka in June

    Cook, Robson, Bell, Pietersen, Root, Stokes, Buttler, Broad, Borthwick, Anderson, Mills.

    Discuss.

    Mills? You must be joking.

    Robson and Buttler might come in if this side underperforms again. Ballance would also have to fail for that to be the team.
    New Selectors, plus they may fancy a tearaway fast bowler.
    He's done nothing to suggest he's ready other than bowling fast.
    Who is Robson?

    Why is no one talking up Finn? Tymal Mills is better now is he?! Crazy, Finn is only 24 and I reckon will be England's main man in a year or two

    Finn goes for far too many runs.

    Sam Robson rejects Australia to pledge future to England

    The 24-year-old represented Australia at U19 level but has played first-class cricket for Middlesex since 2009

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/cricket/international/theashes/10464813/Sam-Robson-rejects-Australia-to-pledge-future-to-England.html
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    Huzzah. Cook's shocking field cowardice doesn't matter if we clean bowl 'em.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Is there *nothing* to be said for Jade Dernbach?! ;)
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,040

    Huzzah. Cook's shocking field cowardice doesn't matter if we clean bowl 'em.

    Doesn't matter in terms of the decision though. This is whats masked Cook's poor and utterly defensive decisions for a long time, England have been 'good enough'./

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    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Was

    The England XI for the first test against Sri Lanka in June

    Cook, Robson, Bell, Pietersen, Root, Stokes, Buttler, Broad, Borthwick, Anderson, Mills.

    Discuss.

    Mills? You must be joking.

    Robson and Buttler might come in if this side underperforms again. Ballance would also have to fail for that to be the team.
    New Selectors, plus they may fancy a tearaway fast bowler.
    He's done nothing to suggest he's ready other than bowling fast.
    Who is Robson?

    Why is no one talking up Finn? Tymal Mills is better now is he?! Crazy, Finn is only 24 and I reckon will be England's main man in a year or two

    Finn goes for far too many runs.

    Sam Robson rejects Australia to pledge future to England

    The 24-year-old represented Australia at U19 level but has played first-class cricket for Middlesex since 2009

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/cricket/international/theashes/10464813/Sam-Robson-rejects-Australia-to-pledge-future-to-England.html
    Hmm we shall see. Taking wickets is more important than keeping the run rate down in test match cricket and Finn is proven in that respect.

    Mind you the selectors obviously think he is not doing it at the moment
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    Can Anderson pitch the ball up! He is/was a swing bowler isn't he!!
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,543
    edited January 2014
    5% of England's balls in the series have been hitting the stumps??? The sackings should start with the bowling coaches.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    @Neil

    Great Barnet
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    Neil said:

    Is there *nothing* to be said for Jade Dernbach?! ;)

    Lots to be said. All of it bad.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,728
    edited January 2014
    Neil said:

    Is there *nothing* to be said for Jade Dernbach?! ;)

    His bowling stats are like Ed Miliband's leadership ratings.

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    Pulpstar said:

    Huzzah. Cook's shocking field cowardice doesn't matter if we clean bowl 'em.

    Doesn't matter in terms of the decision though. This is whats masked Cook's poor and utterly defensive decisions for a long time, England have been 'good enough'./

    I'm not defending it. I was ranting on Twitter when it happened.
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    Please can we get a confident Finn back soon, Need that pace and bounce.
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    I get the feeling Geoff Boycott's mum in her pinny would make a better keeper than Bairstow.
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    Bairstow is part of the young brigade and I don't mind seeing him get an extended run.
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    Sean T, have you seen a Fox's Glacier mint!! It's all melting, ask that crew that got, wait, stuck in the ice!!
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    shipmate1 said:

    Please can we get a confident Finn back soon, Need that pace and bounce.

    Can't bowl sides out so we don't play the bowler with the best average. Weird.
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    Are you related to Finn? He wasn't bowling well. He'll get another go soon. Probably when the campaign to gift Anderson Botham's record is given up as a bad job.
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    Unlucky Rogers. Such a pity. 51/2

    Of course, keeping Rogers in keeps the run rate down like England having Carberry at the crease.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,040
    Was waiting for England to hit 4-1... oh well back to square zero. Market has no respect for England tbh...
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    Are we judging Carberry on one slow innings when the Aussies bowled so accurately at him? Or is it because we don't like 33 year olds playing unless they have 8000 runs behind them?

    He is the 2nd top scorer and at least made the Aussie bowlers bowl!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,040
    England have 2 wickets and yet we're a longer price than at the start o_O ?
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Rumours abounding about movement of a Bulgarian worker from West to North London...
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    shipmate1 said:

    Are we judging Carberry on one slow innings when the Aussies bowled so accurately at him? Or is it because we don't like 33 year olds playing unless they have 8000 runs behind them?

    He is the 2nd top scorer and at least made the Aussie bowlers bowl!

    You're not saying he's looked good?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,040
    Night lads !
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    Promising start by Rankin.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Are you related to Finn? He wasn't bowling well. He'll get another go soon. Probably when the campaign to gift Anderson Botham's record is given up as a bad job.

    Just seems strange to take a potential match winner all the way to Oz and play every other bowler in front of him.

    He and Broad will probably lead the line in the next Ashes I suppose

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    isam said:

    Are you related to Finn? He wasn't bowling well. He'll get another go soon. Probably when the campaign to gift Anderson Botham's record is given up as a bad job.

    Just seems strange to take a potential match winner all the way to Oz and play every other bowler in front of him.

    He and Broad will probably lead the line in the next Ashes I suppose

    Rankin needs to be tried now or he never will be.
This discussion has been closed.