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Sturgeon’s planned “go it alone” IndyRef2 poses problems for the bookies as well as Boris – politica
Sturgeon’s planned “go it alone” IndyRef2 poses problems for the bookies as well as Boris – politicalbetting.com
Sturgeon’s statement yesterday that she intends to hold what she describes as a “legal referendum” on independence from the UK if she wins the Scottish elections scheduled for May certainly puts her on a collision course with Boris who opposes opposes another secession vote.
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Let's not blow this out of proportion.
Politicians are twats when trying to boost their popularity. WHO KNEW?
Yes to win 90% of the vote on a 35% turnout would be my guess.
The EU didn't authorise the UK's 2016 referendum did it? And if the Scottish Parliament does have the authority to hold a 2016-style advisory referendum then the Scottish Parliament has no need to request authorisation either - and winning a referendum, even an advisory one, would set the stage for everything that follows. Just as the UK's did in 2016.
It is debatable as to whether Holyrood does have the power. I expect it to be taken to the Supreme Court to decide - if they decide it does (since its advisory) then its legally authorised per Betfair terms surely?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9184795/Britain-manages-220-000-coronavirus-vaccines-Sunday-slowdown-early-figures-show.html
ITS A DISASTTTTERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR...
I fear for our manufacturing base on Alderaan.....
https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1353730587350212608?s=20
The Mail will run out of tissues.
A win is a win is a win.
The last thing the SNP want is for the election to be about education etc. hence ramping up Indy. Placates the hard-core (and there is definitely a party management issue in play) and distracts from what appears to be a less than impressive performance on the vaccination roll-out. Also they may be slightly (very slightly) concerned about SLAB coming back to life under Sarwar. Making everything about Indy is the best way of stifling a Labour revival.
It must REALLY be pissing off the EU that those pesky Brits are jabbing and saving their Brexit-votig oldies, whilst true-blooded EU veterans are dying from the virus....they didn't order.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/jan/25/four-charged-colston-statue-damage-bristol-tried-crown-court
Salmond or Sturgeon: Which One Is Lying?
https://order-order.com/2021/01/25/salmond-or-sturgeon-which-one-is-lying/
(Gets in haggis flavoured popcorn, especially for Burns’ Night!)
Playing with fire there to hand a victory to your opponents.
https://wingsoverscotland.com/the-rock-in-the-hard-place/
2. U.K. Parliament votes it down 590ish to 48.
What happens next?
From the point of view of the Conservative government, I really can't see any upside to agreeing the referendum. Better to say No, ignore the fuss, and leave it to the next Labour PM to impale himself or herself on the spike.
He says Australian citizens need the permission of the government to leave the country so "in effect you can’t leave".
Quite right....no popping to Barbados on a fictional "business trip".
https://twitter.com/ClarenceHouse/status/1353690091345096725?s=20
He thinks what will happen is
1) Scottish Government will ask for a referendum
2) UK Government will say no
3) Scottish Government holds one anyway and wins
4) Scottish Government asks the UK Government to start talks on Scexit deal
5) UK Government says no, the Scottish referendum has no weight as it wasn't a section 30 authorised referendum
6) Scottish Government takes this to the courts
7) SCOTUK will probably say the Scottish Government has acted outside its powers ending any talk of Scexit based on 3)
8) However it may rule that a lawful referendum be granted (or ask the UK Government what exactly it considers the trigger for a S30 referendum) because if a party or parties committed to holding Indref2 consistently winning the popular vote/most/majority seats consistently at Westminster and Holyrood elections isn't a trigger then what is?
9) The UK Government response to 8) could trigger all sorts of unintended consequences, I suspect the Belfast agreement and possibly the Australian marriage law postal survey maybe cited.
Constitutional matters are reserved matters. The Scottish Parliament could not pass a legal Act which set up and regulated a referendum without Westminster's consent, which is not going to be forthcoming. If the SNP win a majority and seek to pass such a Bill it will be challenged in the Courts who have the power to strike it down because Scottish legislation is subject to that power. Such a decision would be made, ultimately, in the Supreme Court and I have little doubt that in the current extraordinary circumstance where both the President and Deputy President are Scots lawyers Sturgeon could not make much of that.
So Betfair's bet is almost certainly a loser; there will be no legally authorised referendum unless Boris folds in the face of an SNP landslide in May. I would say that this is no better than 10/1, maybe 20/1.
Can the Scottish government run an "informal" referendum without Westminster authorisation? I think that there are several problems. Firstly, spending public money on it might be ultra vires and subject to challenge. I think that this is a lot less straightforward than a bill supporting a referendum. I am not completely confident that any such challenge would succeed. But it is a risk.
The second problem, without a bill, is that requiring people to assist in a referendum becomes much more difficult. What if a local authority directs its returning officer not to co-operate? What if it said its schools and polling stations were not to be made available? How would material be distributed without a freepost, especially if 1 side says it is not playing? The more "informal" this referendum is, without the use of officials who regulate our elections, the easier it will be to ignore. Sturgeon knows all this which is why she has always wanted an official referendum.
I therefore think that the SMarkets bet is very probably a loser too. I don't think Sturgeon would do it. Of course if she is removed as leader all bets are off.
Why should they ship vaccine to the EU to gather dust in warehouses while a bunch of third rate politicians argue over who gets what eventually when the vaccine instead could be jabbed into arms to save lives?
In London, the rolling seven-day rate as of 20 January stood at 557.8 cases per 100,000 people - down from 770.6 a week earlier, and the lowest since the seven days to 16 December.
In the south west the rate is 281.1, down from 351.1 and the lowest since 30 December, Public Health England data shows.
But the picture is more mixed across the Midlands and northern England.
Rates are down in every region, but not every area is quite back to levels last seen at the end of 2020.
North-west England, for example, is currently recording a rate of 441.3 cases per 100,000, down from 557.3 for the previous week and the lowest since 1 January.
Yorkshire & the Humber continues to record the lowest rate of any region: 241.2, down from 286.1.
And by interesting, I mean messy and not to the PM's advantage.
Wouldn't put it past them...
We're doing well with vaccinations. Our pharma industry is stepping up. That's something to be proud of. Is that not enough?
Cue talk of reopening. Sigh!
https://twitter.com/AkivaMCohen/status/1353716125834612736
To be honest, it shows the unattractive side of the EU - the smugness, complacency and bone-headed stupidity coupled with a complete inability to actually think through issues in the round rather than merely how they affect their own little world.
Either comments from random elected officials matter or they dont.
It's bouncing around on Twitter. Only a matter of time before a politicians says it.
https://twitter.com/DailyMailUK/status/1353735430823436289?s=20
Note that Conservative and Unionist Party manifesto from 2019 said no referendum during this Parliament.
I do think the claims of obsession with the EU on this topic are rather strange. Quite apart from the EU being our neighbour and what we each do affecting the other, it's not as though the EU has stopped commenting about the UK on things nor should they.
There was a young lady called Bickers
Who often went out without...
Like how Nobby Nobbs technically had arms as his hands were attached to his shoulders, but that's all you could say about them.
https://twitter.com/rbrharrison/status/1353710847986696196
A huge risk. But I kinda get the impression that she may be losing her grip a bit. Her husband is in the firing line for possibly misleading the parliamentary inquiry. Wonder if that is getting to her.
What do you expect them to do?
Britain's dismal record on Covid-19 puts us quite high up on that list.
Boris Johnson has hinted that the Government will be "looking at the potential of relaxing some measures", before mid- February.
The Prime Minister said that the Government was "looking at the data as it comes in", and then added that "before then we'll be looking at the potential of relaxing some measures".
However No 10 pushed back against Mr Johnson's words and said that the 15th of February "remains the earliest point at which we could change any of the rules".
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/01/25/boris-johnson-schools-reopen-vaccine-rollout-easter-lockdown/
Also, I’d write “🇬🇧UK Aid, 🇬🇧 Vaccinating the Developing World🇬🇧” on the boxes.
That's all.
https://twitter.com/Esmerel44191850/status/1353739358940049409?s=20
If they cant supply they cant supply, end of.
Governments should be used to that given pretty how often defence, IT and infrastructure estimates for cost and timescale are well out.
Actually, pretty much certain. Since he is probably representing himself in this.