The bottom line is that arguments for Brexit are the same for Scottish Independence, you can’t logically believe in one and reject the other. But unfortunately logic plays no role in C21 politics, it’s all emotional nationalist bullshit so we end up with right wing and nationalist parties passionately arguing contradictory points depending on what day of the week it is.
My biggest contempt is for my own party. The coherent argument of the left that we’re all better off forming unions and collaborating seems to be expressed in the most dull, boring and apologetic terms. Frustrating.
Well, I think David L is quite logical in believing in one, and rejecting the other.
As other posters have commented, the economic arguments don't really drive many votes one way or the other. It's about identity. There's nothing illogical about feeling an attachment to the United Kingdom, but no attachment to the European Union.
The problem is what you then do about it.
If a majority of Scots have little to no attachment to the U.K., Brexiteers should sympathise and set them free. Instead the Brexiteers argue that they should stay in the union.
Equally the SNP argue that unions with London are inherently bad, but unions with Brussels are inherently good.
It’s pathetic.
Well, if most Scots do desire independence, there's no point holding them against their will.
That's been my view not just since Brexit, but since the Conservatives came to power in 2010, depsite holding just one Scottish seat. The argument at that point was that Scotland would not tolerate a government with so little Scottish support. Even if that's true, that's no reason why the rest of us can't vote for a centre-eight eurosceptic government.
Our constitution, unlike the US senate, offers no mechanism to restrain the executive when it pursued policies that di not give regard regional differences and create tensions inside the union.
When we have a government that aggressively takes advantage of our elective dictatorship,assert a majority position and pursue a policy supported by only parts of country problems will inevitably emerge.
Come off it, we don't have an elective dictatorship. We have an overcentralised democracy, with too much executive power, but the legislature and judiciary are capable of reigning in the executive, and we have free elections to decide the legislature.
Better, more experienced minds than ours disagree with you.
An appeal to accomplishment fallacy, compelling!
I think it can be argued either way, in fairness, though I think those pushing the elective dictatorship theory tend to overdo it and undermine themselves.
If Johnsonism is about the personal and party exercise of power, so what?
I'm sure that he would rather have untrammeled power over the whole UK, but given a choice between complete power over England and incomplete power over the UK, I think I know which way this version of the Conservative Party will jump. And it's not to protect the Union.
I agree that's the way the party would jump, but I don't think that is the legacy BoZo imagined for himself.
He wants to be the hero of Brexit, not the villain of secession
The trouble with this England and Wales one party dominance by the Conservatives notion, is that once in a while the dominant party irritate the voters to the point where they are no longer dominant, and it can happen very quickly. See Labour in Scotland as an example.
Labour in Scotland was overtaken by a nationalist party of the left, the SNP.
The Tories in England would be overtaken by a nationalist party of the right, probably the latest Farage or Lawrence Fox vehicle or similar, so England would just move even further right on that scenario
On topic Alastair's desire to prove everything bad that might happen in the next millenium is an inevitable consequence of Brexit and proves that everyone who voted for it is an idiot really understates pretty long running trends in NI. The Protestants have been losing their majority for 30 years at least and we are at the switching point where the non religious are already the swing voters and the catholics have a plurality.
The deal with NI reflects not evil incompetence but the reality that NI is much more integrated with a much more dynamic Southern Ireland than it was when Ireland had a pretty ordinary agricultural economy. That needed to be protected. NI is not economically strong as it is and could not afford to lose access to that dynamism. Will there come a point when Ireland offers more than the UK? Maybe. But probably not for a while yet.
The key point with the Northern Ireland Protocol is that Johnson deliberately prioritised the ability of England to diverge from the European Union over maintaining the integrity of the United Kingdom, And to make this clearer, Theresa May prioritised the other way. That's the difference between the two deals.
The union flags that Johnson drapes himself in are just as fraudulent as the rest of his act. The surprising thing about this story is that the DUP went along with it, with enthusiasm, Whatever you might think of the DUP you would expect them to sniff out a fake Unionist at twenty paces.
I acknowledge that May's deal was better in this respect but it is a fact that the southern Irish economy is far, far more of a draw than it was 20 years ago and it will inevitably play a bigger role in NI's economic future going forward.
What Boris didn't like about May's deal was that it tied in the UK as a whole more closely to the EU than his deal does. In his view that is a trade off worth making, even if NI's economy meant that they had to have a different arrangement.
I agree with your first point. Northern Ireland hasn't flourished in recent decades under British Rule. The pivot to the South engendered by the NI Protocol that no-one in Northern Ireland wants may in time deliver an economic boost. Ireland is a successful and prosperous country these days. As Northern Ireland becomes defacto a political part of Ireland, remaining in the EU, the formal ties to the UK waste away and no-one minds too much. That would be a benign scenario if it happens.
I disagree with your second point. Johnson explicitly prioritised divergence of part of the UK over maintaining the integrity of the Union. It's in the treaty and no amount of denying the Irish Sea border gets away from that. Theresa May prioritised the other way. Johnson's choice may or may not be the right one, but it was the choice he made, despite him denying the consequences of it.
Has anyone done a poll in NI which splits respondents to the question by age?. If support for the Union is higher among older people it might mean that the secularisation of the Republic is having an effect. Younger people, by and large, seem less 'religious' than us oldies. And, no, I'm not a churchgoer, although I was brought up to be, and most of my children and grandchildren certainly aren't.
The Alliance Party, which is non-aligned and doing well right now, draws its support more from Protestants than Catholics, I believe. It looks like the DUP is doing an increasingly poor job of representing its own community. The article linked in the thread I posted above goes into this.
The bottom line is that arguments for Brexit are the same for Scottish Independence, you can’t logically believe in one and reject the other. But unfortunately logic plays no role in C21 politics, it’s all emotional nationalist bullshit so we end up with right wing and nationalist parties passionately arguing contradictory points depending on what day of the week it is.
My biggest contempt is for my own party. The coherent argument of the left that we’re all better off forming unions and collaborating seems to be expressed in the most dull, boring and apologetic terms. Frustrating.
Well, I think David L is quite logical in believing in one, and rejecting the other.
As other posters have commented, the economic arguments don't really drive many votes one way or the other. It's about identity. There's nothing illogical about feeling an attachment to the United Kingdom, but no attachment to the European Union.
The problem is what you then do about it.
If a majority of Scots have little to no attachment to the U.K., Brexiteers should sympathise and set them free. Instead the Brexiteers argue that they should stay in the union.
Equally the SNP argue that unions with London are inherently bad, but unions with Brussels are inherently good.
It’s pathetic.
Well, if most Scots do desire independence, there's no point holding them against their will.
That's been my view not just since Brexit, but since the Conservatives came to power in 2010, depsite holding just one Scottish seat. The argument at that point was that Scotland would not tolerate a government with so little Scottish support. Even if that's true, that's no reason why the rest of us can't vote for a centre-eight eurosceptic government.
Our constitution, unlike the US senate, offers no mechanism to restrain the executive when it pursued policies that di not give regard regional differences and create tensions inside the union.
When we have a government that aggressively takes advantage of our elective dictatorship,assert a majority position and pursue a policy supported by only parts of country problems will inevitably emerge.
Come off it, we don't have an elective dictatorship. We have an overcentralised democracy, with too much executive power, but the legislature and judiciary are capable of reigning in the executive, and we have free elections to decide the legislature.
Better, more experienced minds than ours disagree with you.
Here's a good place to start: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index Put together by experts, scoring countries in multiple dimensions to give an assessment on how democratic a country is. The UK consistently scores decently in all categories and very well in some of them. It is characterised as a "full democracy", along with almost all of Western and Northern Europe.
The bill for Mr Johnson’s Brexit is coming in and that bill is a punishingly steep one. It is being paid by the fishing fleets in Scotland and the West Country that are tied up because they are unable to export their catch. It is being paid in a slump in activity at Welsh ports because the trade they used to handle is being diverted to France and Spain. It is being paid in billions of pounds worth of transactions disappearing from the City of London, which may not be much loved by all that many Britons but employs a million people, because the deal was so threadbare for the financial sector. It is being paid in car manufacturers shutting down some production because they can’t get parts across borders in time. It is being paid in tonnes of British meat exports rotting at European harbours. It is being paid by many UK businesses, especially the kind of smaller, exporting enterprises that the Tories always profess to love, which are being overwhelmed by the heavy burdens and high costs of the thin deal the prime minister rushed through parliament at the turn of the year.
You will recall that it was one of the Brexiters’ signature promises that departure from the EU would be a liberating moment. A buccaneering free trade Britain would flourish as wealth creators were unshackled from the stifling regulatory chains of Brussels. What Brexit has actually done is impose a vast amount of cumbersome and costly new bureaucracy on exporters and importers. British companies have been put in a chokehold of regulations, customs declarations, conformity assessments, health and rules-of-origin certifications, VAT demands and inflated shipping charges.
The post-Brexit world is so tough for many that the government’s own trade specialists are advising afflicted British entrepreneurs to relocate some of their operations out of the UK and to the EU. This has to be one of the greater absurdities of Brexit. British companies are being told by the British government that the way to survive is to lay off British workers and transfer their jobs to folk across the Channel.
Boris Johnson... knew enough about the importance of this issue to fib about it. On Christmas Eve, when he was hailing his agreement with the EU as a fantastic new chapter in our island story, he claimed that “there will be no non-tariff barriers to trade”. This was self-evidently untrue even at the time that he said it.
We're running at over a thousand deaths per day and the twats are talking about easing lockdown. FFS.
Do they have any concept of how fucked we currently are?
Edinburgh down to 117 cases per week per 100,000, and falling >30% a week. A long way below any other similar-sized UK city, which makes it a prime candidate for trialling the first reopening steps ...
We're running at over a thousand deaths per day and the twats are talking about easing lockdown. FFS.
Do they have any concept of how fucked we currently are?
Infections are falling sharply and there is initial evidence that hospitalizations are doing the same. At the same time, we are removing the higher risk people from the path of the virus. It seems reasonable to plan for the lifting of some restrictions in the future.
In spring last year it took a month to go from 3 deaths a day to 1000 deaths a day. It then took 4 months to get back down to 3 deaths a day.
Now the vaccines makes this year different from last but it seems once again people have no grasp on the time scales involved.
Yes, without a very shart death drop, which as you note did not happen last time for us, things are going to be awful for quite some time, with another 25-30000 deaths or more perhaps (I've not done the maths, but it will be a lot).
The 'plan for lifting of some restrictions' thing sounds reasonable, except what people really want is a date to lift restriction X, and that is probably not possible, so we really do have to wait and see before getting hopes up by announcing what we'd like to do once things are better.
The voters may say that now but Scottish indie has the massive issue of currency and the £.
What other country in the world has an issue with it's currency, why should it be an issue here, like any other country they either peg to a currency or issue their own, it is not rocket science.
The issue is how you get from UK £ to Scottish Groat or whatever it is to be called.
NHS workers have been asked if they want to turn down Nicola Sturgeon’s controversial £500 Covid-19 bonus. Managers have written to employees offering them the chance to opt out of the payment after it emerged it could impact on other benefits. Low-paid health service workers receive government top-ups to wages from schemes including Universal Credit.
The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) confirmed the bonus – due to be paid next month – would be considered earnings, resulting in some payments being cut.
If Johnsonism is about the personal and party exercise of power, so what?
I'm sure that he would rather have untrammeled power over the whole UK, but given a choice between complete power over England and incomplete power over the UK, I think I know which way this version of the Conservative Party will jump. And it's not to protect the Union.
I agree that's the way the party would jump, but I don't think that is the legacy BoZo imagined for himself.
He wants to be the hero of Brexit, not the villain of secession
[Stern nanny voice ON] Master Boris needs to learn that just because Master Boris wants something doesn't mean that Master Boris gets it. [Stern nanny voice OFF]
Parents out there, stop telling your little darlings they can be whatever they want to be and achieve whatever they want to achieve, this is what happens!
What most struck me about the Sunday Times piece is that only 50% of Scots want a referendum in the next 5 years and that support for independence was only 52-48. These are not the sort of figures to inspire confidence that Scotland will go down the independence route.
Ireland will be united sooner or later. It was the inevitable consequence of planting a border in the Irish sea, though in truth it has been headed that way for some time. Alastair's quite wrong to pin this on the DUP. The ethnic outlook of N Ireland has been changing and support for the union receding.
Good morning everybody. I seem to recall that, in other circumstances, 52-48 was held to be enough for some pretty significant changes.
The point that @Mysticrose was making is, of course, that it doesn't exactly look like a done deal. Using round numbers, if we assume an 85% turnout in the next independence referendum then 2% of participating voters equals about 75,000 people. If 52:48 is in any way an accurate reflection of sentiment and a net 75,000 pro-independence electors can be convinced to switch horses during the campaign then that narrow majority is erased.
It's why there was some suggestion in the past of attaining a consistent 60:40 gap before pressing for an actual vote, so as to avoid the prospect of a narrow defeat at the ballot box. The 1995 Quebec referendum was lost by a wafer thin majority and twenty-five years later there's no prospect of a third tilt on the horizon. Though that said, I think that Scotland's a different case and if there is a second defeat the campaign for a third vote begins the following morning. Stability cannot be achieved within the existing settlement, which is one more good reason for wanting to see the back of the Union.
In 1995 Yes to independence from Canada got 49% in Quebec but 26 years later there has been no indyref3.
Devomax for Quebec resolved the matter as would devomax for Scotland
Because throwing them more powers has always worked for Unionists before.
And Devomax does nothing at all to address the dreaded West Lothian Question. Au contraire: the issue of the 59 Scottish squatters in the House of Commons only becomes more acute.
Again, there is no problem in the constitutional mess that is the United Kingdom that is not resolved by getting rid of the United Kingdom.
Devomax for Holyrood plus an English Parliament would be my preferred option, though I would accept regional Assemblies within England.
Most large nations in the world now are Federal and we should become more Federal too
I suspect that England is simply too big to work well as a devolved unit alongside the other nations.
I also suspect that part of the trouble is that word "regions"- it sounds beige, bureaucratic and British Rail knocking down Euston Arch. Ugh.
We need a better name for them.
If England doesn't want the Union, the gig's up for the United Kingdom. As the by the biggest part of the setup, England has to act with tact and consideration if it wants the Union to be a success. The current regime is completely oblivious to tact and consideration, or even the need for it. Hence the crisis.
The bottom line is that arguments for Brexit are the same for Scottish Independence, you can’t logically believe in one and reject the other. But unfortunately logic plays no role in C21 politics, it’s all emotional nationalist bullshit so we end up with right wing and nationalist parties passionately arguing contradictory points depending on what day of the week it is.
My biggest contempt is for my own party. The coherent argument of the left that we’re all better off forming unions and collaborating seems to be expressed in the most dull, boring and apologetic terms. Frustrating.
Well, I think David L is quite logical in believing in one, and rejecting the other.
As other posters have commented, the economic arguments don't really drive many votes one way or the other. It's about identity. There's nothing illogical about feeling an attachment to the United Kingdom, but no attachment to the European Union.
The problem is what you then do about it.
If a majority of Scots have little to no attachment to the U.K., Brexiteers should sympathise and set them free. Instead the Brexiteers argue that they should stay in the union.
Equally the SNP argue that unions with London are inherently bad, but unions with Brussels are inherently good.
It’s pathetic.
Well, if most Scots do desire independence, there's no point holding them against their will.
That's been my view not just since Brexit, but since the Conservatives came to power in 2010, depsite holding just one Scottish seat. The argument at that point was that Scotland would not tolerate a government with so little Scottish support. Even if that's true, that's no reason why the rest of us can't vote for a centre-eight eurosceptic government.
Our constitution, unlike the US senate, offers no mechanism to restrain the executive when it pursued policies that di not give regard regional differences and create tensions inside the union.
When we have a government that aggressively takes advantage of our elective dictatorship,assert a majority position and pursue a policy supported by only parts of country problems will inevitably emerge.
Come off it, we don't have an elective dictatorship. We have an overcentralised democracy, with too much executive power, but the legislature and judiciary are capable of reigning in the executive, and we have free elections to decide the legislature.
Better, more experienced minds than ours disagree with you.
Here's a good place to start: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index Put together by experts, scoring countries in multiple dimensions to give an assessment on how democratic a country is. The UK consistently scores decently in all categories and very well in some of them. It is characterised as a "full democracy", along with almost all of Western and Northern Europe.
It's the political culture score for the UK and Germany that get me here, as PBers are always saying politics is less divisive and confrontational there, more effective.
Anecdata on why people refuse vaccinations (source: council colleagues): Primarily, they are confused by media messaging and it's really that which needs addressing with public information broadcasts. Commandeer the BBC for 10 minutes a day, throw money at Facebook and Twitter and Snapchat and YouTube, just get the message out, use diverse multi-ethnic multi-party messengers (here we really do need community leaders) and keep it honest.
1. Are there serious side-effects? (Virtually never.) 2. Might they get the bug anyway? (Yes, but much less likely, and stay sensibly distanced for now anyway.) 3. Is the 12(+?)-week gap scientifically based? (Not really, but it's still much better than nothing.) 4. Is vaccine X better than vaccine Y? (Yes, but they're all much better than nothing.) 5. Should we trust Boris Johnson? (Not relevant.)
On the upside, someone who runs a chain of care homes says that reports of resistance there seem overblown - in her homes, 99% are taking the jab with more or less enthusiasm.
Good post, an important point on 2 is not just that it is much less likely, but that if they do catch it the severe versions are extremely rare to the point of being non existent or close to in the trials.
TV and social media dream team to do the messaging:
HMQ Prince William David Attenborough Marcus Rashford Martin Lewis Helen Mirren Deborah Meeden Mo Farah Chris Whitty Ranvir Singh
The argument is that brexit has turbo charged the Scottish Indy movement.
The SNP would still be arguing for Indy even if remain had won. Makes 0 difference.
Makes a big difference to the support though, why do you think it is rising as we are torn out of EU and Westminster start demolishing devolution, are you blind.
I was under the impression that since Brexit has actually become a reality (the uncomfortable aspects) support for independence has fallen slightly - at least plateaued. It doesn't surprise me.
We're running at over a thousand deaths per day and the twats are talking about easing lockdown. FFS.
Do they have any concept of how fucked we currently are?
At a guess, I'd say some of the opponents have a libertarian monomania around tearing down all the restrictions, others are worried merely that the Government will swing into overcautious territory and we'll all be locked down tighter and for longer than is actually necessary. Personally, I suspect that easing will be very tentative indeed and that substantial chunks of the economy (notably hotels, pubs and restaurants) will be kept firmly closed until the entire adult population has been lanced. This is probably the sort of thing that the latter group of opponents is afraid of as well: first jabs for all the young and fit might very well not be completed before August or September.
Because Captain Cautious keeps merrily voting with the Govt, or decisively abstaining, the only opposition to Govt is coming from the backbenches.
We cannot stay locked down for longer than the spring when at the same time lots of people will have acquired protection from vaccines.
Even if we continue to do well and get to the end of phase one at some point in April, the script for extreme caution has already been written. It is likely to include the following themes:
1. The vaccines are not 100% effective for the old and vulnerable, and Covid remains a threat to the young more generally as well. If we open too much up we still run the risk of overwhelming the hospitals 2. If there is widespread transmission of Covid amongst the young then the risk of a disastrous new variant emerging increases. It also leaves a lot more people potentially vulnerable to Long Covid, the evidence of the seriousness of which continues to increase 3. The NHS is knackered, the staff are exhausted and the routine treatment backlogs are enormous. We need to keep the pressure firmly off them, to allow them to recover and start to catch up
Conclusion: we've already been going through this for over a year now. An extra few months isn't going to make that much of a difference, and at the end of it everyone will have been jabbed and we can all be let out to play a lot more safely.
I reckon primary schools, gyms and hairdressers upon completion of phase one; shops about a month later, if there's no sign of a major disease spike; but pubs, restaurants and holidays are off until everyone's been lanced at least once, at a guess by the end of July or possibly a bit later.
What most struck me about the Sunday Times piece is that only 50% of Scots want a referendum in the next 5 years and that support for independence was only 52-48. These are not the sort of figures to inspire confidence that Scotland will go down the independence route.
Ireland will be united sooner or later. It was the inevitable consequence of planting a border in the Irish sea, though in truth it has been headed that way for some time. Alastair's quite wrong to pin this on the DUP. The ethnic outlook of N Ireland has been changing and support for the union receding.
Good morning everybody. I seem to recall that, in other circumstances, 52-48 was held to be enough for some pretty significant changes.
The point that @Mysticrose was making is, of course, that it doesn't exactly look like a done deal. Using round numbers, if we assume an 85% turnout in the next independence referendum then 2% of participating voters equals about 75,000 people. If 52:48 is in any way an accurate reflection of sentiment and a net 75,000 pro-independence electors can be convinced to switch horses during the campaign then that narrow majority is erased.
It's why there was some suggestion in the past of attaining a consistent 60:40 gap before pressing for an actual vote, so as to avoid the prospect of a narrow defeat at the ballot box. The 1995 Quebec referendum was lost by a wafer thin majority and twenty-five years later there's no prospect of a third tilt on the horizon. Though that said, I think that Scotland's a different case and if there is a second defeat the campaign for a third vote begins the following morning. Stability cannot be achieved within the existing settlement, which is one more good reason for wanting to see the back of the Union.
In 1995 Yes to independence from Canada got 49% in Quebec but 26 years later there has been no indyref3.
Devomax for Quebec resolved the matter as would devomax for Scotland
Because throwing them more powers has always worked for Unionists before.
And Devomax does nothing at all to address the dreaded West Lothian Question. Au contraire: the issue of the 59 Scottish squatters in the House of Commons only becomes more acute.
Again, there is no problem in the constitutional mess that is the United Kingdom that is not resolved by getting rid of the United Kingdom.
Devomax for Holyrood plus an English Parliament would be my preferred option, though I would accept regional Assemblies within England.
Most large nations in the world now are Federal and we should become more Federal too
I suspect that England is simply too big to work well as a devolved unit alongside the other nations.
I also suspect that part of the trouble is that word "regions"- it sounds beige, bureaucratic and British Rail knocking down Euston Arch. Ugh.
We need a better name for them.
If England doesn't want the Union, the gig's up for the United Kingdom. As the by the biggest part of the setup, England has to act with tact and consideration if it wants the Union to be a success. The current regime is completely oblivious to tact and consideration, or even the need for it. Hence the crisis.
On current polling England will not get the UK government it wants though in 2024 for the first time since February 1974.
Most current polls suggest Starmer could become PM with SNP confidence and supply despite the Tories still winning most seats in England.
I predict therefore that after the next general election the shift will move from Scottish and Welsh nationalism to English nationalism as England is denied what it voted for at Westminster as well as being denied its own Parliament too as Scotland and Wales have.
It will be the first time the West Lothian question really becomes an issue in England and a PM Starmer would have to solve it
We're running at over a thousand deaths per day and the twats are talking about easing lockdown. FFS.
Do they have any concept of how fucked we currently are?
Infections are falling sharply and there is initial evidence that hospitalizations are doing the same. At the same time, we are removing the higher risk people from the path of the virus. It seems reasonable to plan for the lifting of some restrictions in the future.
In spring last year it took a month to go from 3 deaths a day to 1000 deaths a day. It then took 4 months to get back down to 3 deaths a day.
Now the vaccines makes this year different from last but it seems once again people have no grasp on the time scales involved.
Yes, without a very shart death drop, which as you note did not happen last time for us, things are going to be awful for quite some time, with another 25-30000 deaths or more perhaps (I've not done the maths, but it will be a lot).
The 'plan for lifting of some restrictions' thing sounds reasonable, except what people really want is a date to lift restriction X, and that is probably not possible, so we really do have to wait and see before getting hopes up by announcing what we'd like to do once things are better.
Yes, as you say the demand for a "plan to reopen" is a trap designed to get the government to commit to a "date to reopen"
What most struck me about the Sunday Times piece is that only 50% of Scots want a referendum in the next 5 years and that support for independence was only 52-48. These are not the sort of figures to inspire confidence that Scotland will go down the independence route.
Ireland will be united sooner or later. It was the inevitable consequence of planting a border in the Irish sea, though in truth it has been headed that way for some time. Alastair's quite wrong to pin this on the DUP. The ethnic outlook of N Ireland has been changing and support for the union receding.
Good morning everybody. I seem to recall that, in other circumstances, 52-48 was held to be enough for some pretty significant changes.
The point that @Mysticrose was making is, of course, that it doesn't exactly look like a done deal. Using round numbers, if we assume an 85% turnout in the next independence referendum then 2% of participating voters equals about 75,000 people. If 52:48 is in any way an accurate reflection of sentiment and a net 75,000 pro-independence electors can be convinced to switch horses during the campaign then that narrow majority is erased.
It's why there was some suggestion in the past of attaining a consistent 60:40 gap before pressing for an actual vote, so as to avoid the prospect of a narrow defeat at the ballot box. The 1995 Quebec referendum was lost by a wafer thin majority and twenty-five years later there's no prospect of a third tilt on the horizon. Though that said, I think that Scotland's a different case and if there is a second defeat the campaign for a third vote begins the following morning. Stability cannot be achieved within the existing settlement, which is one more good reason for wanting to see the back of the Union.
In 1995 Yes to independence from Canada got 49% in Quebec but 26 years later there has been no indyref3.
Devomax for Quebec resolved the matter as would devomax for Scotland
Because throwing them more powers has always worked for Unionists before.
And Devomax does nothing at all to address the dreaded West Lothian Question. Au contraire: the issue of the 59 Scottish squatters in the House of Commons only becomes more acute.
Again, there is no problem in the constitutional mess that is the United Kingdom that is not resolved by getting rid of the United Kingdom.
Devomax for Holyrood plus an English Parliament would be my preferred option, though I would accept regional Assemblies within England.
Most large nations in the world now are Federal and we should become more Federal too
I suspect that England is simply too big to work well as a devolved unit alongside the other nations.
I also suspect that part of the trouble is that word "regions"- it sounds beige, bureaucratic and British Rail knocking down Euston Arch. Ugh.
We need a better name for them.
If Starmer becomes PM in 2024 expect Lord Gordon Brown to be appointed Grand High Minister for the Union and indeed to give Scotland devomax and break England up into regions and regional assemblies, or provinces if you prefer.
England in effect at the moment only exists on the rugby and football pitch (even the cricket team is actually England and Wales), otherwise it is a non existent merely ceremonial nation so it would not make that much difference
Cricket won't be a problem. The West Indies operate as a collective. You are scraping the bottom of the barrel using national sporting teams as justification for the continuation of the Union.
The Union is over. Scotland has already packed it's bags. A United Ireland will follow on shortly, by which time the demand for an independent Wales will peak over 50% shortly thereafter. You can quote me figures that Wales voted Brexit, but the demand will be one of "if they are having some of that I want some too", and the argument will again be over sovereignty rather than economics.
Boris unleashing the monster that is "sovereignty" might work against his planned legacy.
The argument is that brexit has turbo charged the Scottish Indy movement.
The SNP would still be arguing for Indy even if remain had won. Makes 0 difference.
Makes a big difference to the support though, why do you think it is rising as we are torn out of EU and Westminster start demolishing devolution, are you blind.
I was under the impression that since Brexit has actually become a reality (the uncomfortable aspects) support for independence has fallen slightly - at least plateaued. It doesn't surprise me.
Indeed. "Don't repeat the Brexit clusterfuck for Scotland" is a powerful argument. It's not one the Conservatives are in a good place to make.
What most struck me about the Sunday Times piece is that only 50% of Scots want a referendum in the next 5 years and that support for independence was only 52-48. These are not the sort of figures to inspire confidence that Scotland will go down the independence route.
Ireland will be united sooner or later. It was the inevitable consequence of planting a border in the Irish sea, though in truth it has been headed that way for some time. Alastair's quite wrong to pin this on the DUP. The ethnic outlook of N Ireland has been changing and support for the union receding.
Good morning everybody. I seem to recall that, in other circumstances, 52-48 was held to be enough for some pretty significant changes.
The point that @Mysticrose was making is, of course, that it doesn't exactly look like a done deal. Using round numbers, if we assume an 85% turnout in the next independence referendum then 2% of participating voters equals about 75,000 people. If 52:48 is in any way an accurate reflection of sentiment and a net 75,000 pro-independence electors can be convinced to switch horses during the campaign then that narrow majority is erased.
It's why there was some suggestion in the past of attaining a consistent 60:40 gap before pressing for an actual vote, so as to avoid the prospect of a narrow defeat at the ballot box. The 1995 Quebec referendum was lost by a wafer thin majority and twenty-five years later there's no prospect of a third tilt on the horizon. Though that said, I think that Scotland's a different case and if there is a second defeat the campaign for a third vote begins the following morning. Stability cannot be achieved within the existing settlement, which is one more good reason for wanting to see the back of the Union.
In 1995 Yes to independence from Canada got 49% in Quebec but 26 years later there has been no indyref3.
Devomax for Quebec resolved the matter as would devomax for Scotland
Because throwing them more powers has always worked for Unionists before.
And Devomax does nothing at all to address the dreaded West Lothian Question. Au contraire: the issue of the 59 Scottish squatters in the House of Commons only becomes more acute.
Again, there is no problem in the constitutional mess that is the United Kingdom that is not resolved by getting rid of the United Kingdom.
Devomax for Holyrood plus an English Parliament would be my preferred option, though I would accept regional Assemblies within England.
Most large nations in the world now are Federal and we should become more Federal too
I suspect that England is simply too big to work well as a devolved unit alongside the other nations.
I also suspect that part of the trouble is that word "regions"- it sounds beige, bureaucratic and British Rail knocking down Euston Arch. Ugh.
We need a better name for them.
If England doesn't want the Union, the gig's up for the United Kingdom. As the by the biggest part of the setup, England has to act with tact and consideration if it wants the Union to be a success. The current regime is completely oblivious to tact and consideration, or even the need for it. Hence the crisis.
On current polling England will not get the UK government it wants though in 2024 for the first time since February 1974.
Most current polls suggest Starmer could become PM with SNP confidence and supply despite the Tories still winning most seats in England.
I predict therefore that after the next general election the shift will move from Scottish and Welsh nationalism to English nationalism as England is denied what it voted for at Westminster as well as being denied its own Parliament too as Scotland and Wales have.
It's a UK Parliament, it would be hypocritical to get mad if Scots and Welsh MPs make the difference for a government.
Not that I disagree that in the circumstances the English Parliament crowd would flare up.
We're running at over a thousand deaths per day and the twats are talking about easing lockdown. FFS.
Do they have any concept of how fucked we currently are?
At a guess, I'd say some of the opponents have a libertarian monomania around tearing down all the restrictions, others are worried merely that the Government will swing into overcautious territory and we'll all be locked down tighter and for longer than is actually necessary. Personally, I suspect that easing will be very tentative indeed and that substantial chunks of the economy (notably hotels, pubs and restaurants) will be kept firmly closed until the entire adult population has been lanced. This is probably the sort of thing that the latter group of opponents is afraid of as well: first jabs for all the young and fit might very well not be completed before August or September.
Because Captain Cautious keeps merrily voting with the Govt, or decisively abstaining, the only opposition to Govt is coming from the backbenches.
We cannot stay locked down for longer than the spring when at the same time lots of people will have acquired protection from vaccines.
Even if we continue to do well and get to the end of phase one at some point in April, the script for extreme caution has already been written. It is likely to include the following themes:
1. The vaccines are not 100% effective for the old and vulnerable, and Covid remains a threat to the young more generally as well. If we open too much up we still run the risk of overwhelming the hospitals 2. If there is widespread transmission of Covid amongst the young then the risk of a disastrous new variant emerging increases. It also leaves a lot more people potentially vulnerable to Long Covid, the evidence of the seriousness of which continues to increase 3. The NHS is knackered, the staff are exhausted and the routine treatment backlogs are enormous. We need to keep the pressure firmly off them, to allow them to recover and start to catch up
Conclusion: we've already been going through this for over a year now. An extra few months isn't going to make that much of a difference, and at the end of it everyone will have been jabbed and we can all be let out to play a lot more safely.
I reckon primary schools, gyms and hairdressers upon completion of phase one; shops about a month later, if there's no sign of a major disease spike; but pubs, restaurants and holidays are off until everyone's been lanced at least once, at a guess by the end of July or possibly a bit later.
Sadly I can see it too. Maybe taking a month off each of your dates.
However, I think if things are tending that way there will be a flurry of letters to the '22 that may focus Boris' mind. The backbenches are not at all happy.
52% of UK voters say only vaccinated people should be allowed to travel abroad and 57% say only vaccinated people should be allowed to travel to the UK.
What most struck me about the Sunday Times piece is that only 50% of Scots want a referendum in the next 5 years and that support for independence was only 52-48. These are not the sort of figures to inspire confidence that Scotland will go down the independence route.
Ireland will be united sooner or later. It was the inevitable consequence of planting a border in the Irish sea, though in truth it has been headed that way for some time. Alastair's quite wrong to pin this on the DUP. The ethnic outlook of N Ireland has been changing and support for the union receding.
Good morning everybody. I seem to recall that, in other circumstances, 52-48 was held to be enough for some pretty significant changes.
The point that @Mysticrose was making is, of course, that it doesn't exactly look like a done deal. Using round numbers, if we assume an 85% turnout in the next independence referendum then 2% of participating voters equals about 75,000 people. If 52:48 is in any way an accurate reflection of sentiment and a net 75,000 pro-independence electors can be convinced to switch horses during the campaign then that narrow majority is erased.
It's why there was some suggestion in the past of attaining a consistent 60:40 gap before pressing for an actual vote, so as to avoid the prospect of a narrow defeat at the ballot box. The 1995 Quebec referendum was lost by a wafer thin majority and twenty-five years later there's no prospect of a third tilt on the horizon. Though that said, I think that Scotland's a different case and if there is a second defeat the campaign for a third vote begins the following morning. Stability cannot be achieved within the existing settlement, which is one more good reason for wanting to see the back of the Union.
In 1995 Yes to independence from Canada got 49% in Quebec but 26 years later there has been no indyref3.
Devomax for Quebec resolved the matter as would devomax for Scotland
Because throwing them more powers has always worked for Unionists before.
And Devomax does nothing at all to address the dreaded West Lothian Question. Au contraire: the issue of the 59 Scottish squatters in the House of Commons only becomes more acute.
Again, there is no problem in the constitutional mess that is the United Kingdom that is not resolved by getting rid of the United Kingdom.
Devomax for Holyrood plus an English Parliament would be my preferred option, though I would accept regional Assemblies within England.
Most large nations in the world now are Federal and we should become more Federal too
I suspect that England is simply too big to work well as a devolved unit alongside the other nations.
I also suspect that part of the trouble is that word "regions"- it sounds beige, bureaucratic and British Rail knocking down Euston Arch. Ugh.
We need a better name for them.
If Starmer becomes PM in 2024 expect Lord Gordon Brown to be appointed Grand High Minister for the Union and indeed to give Scotland devomax and break England up into regions and regional assemblies, or provinces if you prefer.
England in effect at the moment only exists on the rugby and football pitch (even the cricket team is actually England and Wales), otherwise it is a non existent merely ceremonial nation so it would not make that much difference
Cricket won't be a problem. The West Indies operate as a collective. You are scraping the bottom of the barrel using national sporting teams as justification for the continuation of the Union.
The Union is over. Scotland has already packed it's bags. A United Ireland will follow on shortly, by which time the demand for an independent Wales will peak over 50% shortly thereafter. You can quote me figures that Wales voted Brexit, but the demand will be one of "if they are having some of that I want some too", and the argument will again be over sovereignty rather than economics.
Boris unleashing the monster that is "sovereignty" might work against his planned legacy.
Some of his arguments are poor, and it is clearly in trouble, but nothing is inevitable even if it is likely, so people going 'the union is over' as if there can be no argument or anyone arguing the counter view is being silly gets my goat a bit.
But time to stop being depressed about my country and enjoy the snowfall.
Cold causing coronaviruses are "sharply seasonal" according to peer reviewed literature. This one won't be any different. Strict restrictions through winter.
52% of UK voters say only vaccinated people should be allowed to travel abroad and 57% say only vaccinated people should be allowed to travel to the UK.
If Johnsonism is about the personal and party exercise of power, so what?
I'm sure that he would rather have untrammeled power over the whole UK, but given a choice between complete power over England and incomplete power over the UK, I think I know which way this version of the Conservative Party will jump. And it's not to protect the Union.
I agree that's the way the party would jump, but I don't think that is the legacy BoZo imagined for himself.
He wants to be the hero of Brexit, not the villain of secession
The trouble with this England and Wales one party dominance by the Conservatives notion, is that once in a while the dominant party irritate the voters to the point where they are no longer dominant, and it can happen very quickly. See Labour in Scotland as an example.
Labour in Scotland was overtaken by a nationalist party of the left, the SNP.
The Tories in England would be overtaken by a nationalist party of the right, probably the latest Farage or Lawrence Fox vehicle or similar, so England would just move even further right on that scenario
If people tire of the dominant Tories in England they can vote for a combination of Labour, LD, Green, or a Farage/Fox Rainbow Alliance. The Conservatives don't have to be so unpopular as to wither on the vine like SLab, just ship enough support to lose power once in a while.
We're running at over a thousand deaths per day and the twats are talking about easing lockdown. FFS.
Do they have any concept of how fucked we currently are?
At a guess, I'd say some of the opponents have a libertarian monomania around tearing down all the restrictions, others are worried merely that the Government will swing into overcautious territory and we'll all be locked down tighter and for longer than is actually necessary. Personally, I suspect that easing will be very tentative indeed and that substantial chunks of the economy (notably hotels, pubs and restaurants) will be kept firmly closed until the entire adult population has been lanced. This is probably the sort of thing that the latter group of opponents is afraid of as well: first jabs for all the young and fit might very well not be completed before August or September.
Because Captain Cautious keeps merrily voting with the Govt, or decisively abstaining, the only opposition to Govt is coming from the backbenches.
We cannot stay locked down for longer than the spring when at the same time lots of people will have acquired protection from vaccines.
Even if we continue to do well and get to the end of phase one at some point in April, the script for extreme caution has already been written. It is likely to include the following themes:
1. The vaccines are not 100% effective for the old and vulnerable, and Covid remains a threat to the young more generally as well. If we open too much up we still run the risk of overwhelming the hospitals 2. If there is widespread transmission of Covid amongst the young then the risk of a disastrous new variant emerging increases. It also leaves a lot more people potentially vulnerable to Long Covid, the evidence of the seriousness of which continues to increase 3. The NHS is knackered, the staff are exhausted and the routine treatment backlogs are enormous. We need to keep the pressure firmly off them, to allow them to recover and start to catch up
Conclusion: we've already been going through this for over a year now. An extra few months isn't going to make that much of a difference, and at the end of it everyone will have been jabbed and we can all be let out to play a lot more safely.
I reckon primary schools, gyms and hairdressers upon completion of phase one; shops about a month later, if there's no sign of a major disease spike; but pubs, restaurants and holidays are off until everyone's been lanced at least once, at a guess by the end of July or possibly a bit later.
Sadly I can see it too. Maybe taking a month off each of your dates.
However, I think if things are tending that way there will be a flurry of letters to the '22 that may focus Boris' mind. The backbenches are not at all happy.
Makes no difference. Johnson is completely secure. His party isn't going to split and precipitate a no confidence vote in the Government, and it would require a vast rebellion to threaten his position as leader. There might not be anyone on the backbenches willing to wield the knife in the middle of a national disaster. There certainly won't be the numbers required.
They have no idea if they died because of COVID, no idea of how many weeks since they had the first jab and none of these vaccines are 100%. Very old frail people in care homes unfortunately die on a regular basis regardless of COVID and very few people are more than 3 weeks out from their first jab. Before Christmas hardly any care homes residents were getting vaccinated.
Furthermore most care homes residents aren't getting the Pfizer jab, so the argument about changing the dosing strategy is not relevant. AZN, the evidence is much stronger to leave the second dose and the BMA aren't calling for the government to change for that vaccine.
Marr really has no political sense in his questioning at all does he? He has no clue about when to focus in on something rather than proceed with his planned banalities. No wonder politicians like getting interviewed by him.
What most struck me about the Sunday Times piece is that only 50% of Scots want a referendum in the next 5 years and that support for independence was only 52-48. These are not the sort of figures to inspire confidence that Scotland will go down the independence route.
Ireland will be united sooner or later. It was the inevitable consequence of planting a border in the Irish sea, though in truth it has been headed that way for some time. Alastair's quite wrong to pin this on the DUP. The ethnic outlook of N Ireland has been changing and support for the union receding.
Good morning everybody. I seem to recall that, in other circumstances, 52-48 was held to be enough for some pretty significant changes.
The point that @Mysticrose was making is, of course, that it doesn't exactly look like a done deal. Using round numbers, if we assume an 85% turnout in the next independence referendum then 2% of participating voters equals about 75,000 people. If 52:48 is in any way an accurate reflection of sentiment and a net 75,000 pro-independence electors can be convinced to switch horses during the campaign then that narrow majority is erased.
It's why there was some suggestion in the past of attaining a consistent 60:40 gap before pressing for an actual vote, so as to avoid the prospect of a narrow defeat at the ballot box. The 1995 Quebec referendum was lost by a wafer thin majority and twenty-five years later there's no prospect of a third tilt on the horizon. Though that said, I think that Scotland's a different case and if there is a second defeat the campaign for a third vote begins the following morning. Stability cannot be achieved within the existing settlement, which is one more good reason for wanting to see the back of the Union.
In 1995 Yes to independence from Canada got 49% in Quebec but 26 years later there has been no indyref3.
Devomax for Quebec resolved the matter as would devomax for Scotland
Because throwing them more powers has always worked for Unionists before.
And Devomax does nothing at all to address the dreaded West Lothian Question. Au contraire: the issue of the 59 Scottish squatters in the House of Commons only becomes more acute.
Again, there is no problem in the constitutional mess that is the United Kingdom that is not resolved by getting rid of the United Kingdom.
Devomax for Holyrood plus an English Parliament would be my preferred option, though I would accept regional Assemblies within England.
Most large nations in the world now are Federal and we should become more Federal too
I suspect that England is simply too big to work well as a devolved unit alongside the other nations.
I also suspect that part of the trouble is that word "regions"- it sounds beige, bureaucratic and British Rail knocking down Euston Arch. Ugh.
We need a better name for them.
If Starmer becomes PM in 2024 expect Lord Gordon Brown to be appointed Grand High Minister for the Union and indeed to give Scotland devomax and break England up into regions and regional assemblies, or provinces if you prefer.
England in effect at the moment only exists on the rugby and football pitch (even the cricket team is actually England and Wales), otherwise it is a non existent merely ceremonial nation so it would not make that much difference
Cricket won't be a problem. The West Indies operate as a collective. You are scraping the bottom of the barrel using national sporting teams as justification for the continuation of the Union.
The Union is over. Scotland has already packed it's bags. A United Ireland will follow on shortly, by which time the demand for an independent Wales will peak over 50% shortly thereafter. You can quote me figures that Wales voted Brexit, but the demand will be one of "if they are having some of that I want some too", and the argument will again be over sovereignty rather than economics.
Boris unleashing the monster that is "sovereignty" might work against his planned legacy.
Just 49% of Scots backing independence including undecideds, only 42% of Northern Irish voters backing a United Ireland and a mere 23% of Welsh voters backing independence, little different to the 15% of English voters who currently want independence on today's ST poll does not suggest that.
Indeed the UK is more likely to rejoin the EU than Wales is to ever be independent
There might not be anyone on the backbenches willing to wield the knife in the middle of a national disaster. There certainly won't be the numbers required.
Letters have already been submitted because of the National disaster BoZo is presiding over
We're running at over a thousand deaths per day and the twats are talking about easing lockdown. FFS.
Do they have any concept of how fucked we currently are?
At a guess, I'd say some of the opponents have a libertarian monomania around tearing down all the restrictions, others are worried merely that the Government will swing into overcautious territory and we'll all be locked down tighter and for longer than is actually necessary. Personally, I suspect that easing will be very tentative indeed and that substantial chunks of the economy (notably hotels, pubs and restaurants) will be kept firmly closed until the entire adult population has been lanced. This is probably the sort of thing that the latter group of opponents is afraid of as well: first jabs for all the young and fit might very well not be completed before August or September.
Because Captain Cautious keeps merrily voting with the Govt, or decisively abstaining, the only opposition to Govt is coming from the backbenches.
We cannot stay locked down for longer than the spring when at the same time lots of people will have acquired protection from vaccines.
Even if we continue to do well and get to the end of phase one at some point in April, the script for extreme caution has already been written. It is likely to include the following themes:
1. The vaccines are not 100% effective for the old and vulnerable, and Covid remains a threat to the young more generally as well. If we open too much up we still run the risk of overwhelming the hospitals 2. If there is widespread transmission of Covid amongst the young then the risk of a disastrous new variant emerging increases. It also leaves a lot more people potentially vulnerable to Long Covid, the evidence of the seriousness of which continues to increase 3. The NHS is knackered, the staff are exhausted and the routine treatment backlogs are enormous. We need to keep the pressure firmly off them, to allow them to recover and start to catch up
Conclusion: we've already been going through this for over a year now. An extra few months isn't going to make that much of a difference, and at the end of it everyone will have been jabbed and we can all be let out to play a lot more safely.
I reckon primary schools, gyms and hairdressers upon completion of phase one; shops about a month later, if there's no sign of a major disease spike; but pubs, restaurants and holidays are off until everyone's been lanced at least once, at a guess by the end of July or possibly a bit later.
Sadly I can see it too. Maybe taking a month off each of your dates.
However, I think if things are tending that way there will be a flurry of letters to the '22 that may focus Boris' mind. The backbenches are not at all happy.
Makes no difference. Johnson is completely secure. His party isn't going to split and precipitate a no confidence vote in the Government, and it would require a vast rebellion to threaten his position as leader. There might not be anyone on the backbenches willing to wield the knife in the middle of a national disaster. There certainly won't be the numbers required.
Wouldn't be so sure about that - I'd say there are 25-35 already terribly unhappy. Doesn't take much to get letters in from each one. Delaying reopening until April probably pushes another 10 in that direction.
Then you start getting the opportunists looking for promotion by means of a new leader.
Boris would wan't to avoid a confidence vote within the party. It is the beginning of the end even when you win, as Tory leader. Hence this pressure from the right will help to focus his mind.
They have no idea if they died because of COVID, no idea of how many weeks since they had the first jab and none of these vaccines are 100%. Very old frail people in care homes unfortunately die on a regular basis regardless of COVID and very few people are more than 3 weeks out from their first jab. Before Christmas hardly any care homes residents were getting vaccinated.
Furthermore most care homes residents aren't getting the Pfizer jab, so the argument about changing the dosing strategy is not relevant. AZN, the evidence is much stronger to leave the second dose and the BMI are calling for the government to change for that vaccine.
Is there any correlation between care homes with higher death rates and care homes with lower staff vaccine take up?
We're running at over a thousand deaths per day and the twats are talking about easing lockdown. FFS.
Do they have any concept of how fucked we currently are?
Edinburgh down to 117 cases per week per 100,000, and falling >30% a week. A long way below any other similar-sized UK city, which makes it a prime candidate for trialling the first reopening steps ...
Unlikely to happen. Sturgeon has made big mistakes with Covid, but unlike Jhnson seems capable of learning from them. Scottish case, death and hospitalisation rates are half those of England because she didn't try to "save Christmas" or unlockdown too early.
We're running at over a thousand deaths per day and the twats are talking about easing lockdown. FFS.
Do they have any concept of how fucked we currently are?
At a guess, I'd say some of the opponents have a libertarian monomania around tearing down all the restrictions, others are worried merely that the Government will swing into overcautious territory and we'll all be locked down tighter and for longer than is actually necessary. Personally, I suspect that easing will be very tentative indeed and that substantial chunks of the economy (notably hotels, pubs and restaurants) will be kept firmly closed until the entire adult population has been lanced. This is probably the sort of thing that the latter group of opponents is afraid of as well: first jabs for all the young and fit might very well not be completed before August or September.
Because Captain Cautious keeps merrily voting with the Govt, or decisively abstaining, the only opposition to Govt is coming from the backbenches.
We cannot stay locked down for longer than the spring when at the same time lots of people will have acquired protection from vaccines.
Even if we continue to do well and get to the end of phase one at some point in April, the script for extreme caution has already been written. It is likely to include the following themes:
1. The vaccines are not 100% effective for the old and vulnerable, and Covid remains a threat to the young more generally as well. If we open too much up we still run the risk of overwhelming the hospitals 2. If there is widespread transmission of Covid amongst the young then the risk of a disastrous new variant emerging increases. It also leaves a lot more people potentially vulnerable to Long Covid, the evidence of the seriousness of which continues to increase 3. The NHS is knackered, the staff are exhausted and the routine treatment backlogs are enormous. We need to keep the pressure firmly off them, to allow them to recover and start to catch up
Conclusion: we've already been going through this for over a year now. An extra few months isn't going to make that much of a difference, and at the end of it everyone will have been jabbed and we can all be let out to play a lot more safely.
I reckon primary schools, gyms and hairdressers upon completion of phase one; shops about a month later, if there's no sign of a major disease spike; but pubs, restaurants and holidays are off until everyone's been lanced at least once, at a guess by the end of July or possibly a bit later.
Sadly I can see it too. Maybe taking a month off each of your dates.
However, I think if things are tending that way there will be a flurry of letters to the '22 that may focus Boris' mind. The backbenches are not at all happy.
I fear we may find problems arising from symptomatic but infected youngsters. Especially as the effects of our vaccinations wear off.
They have no idea if they died because of COVID, no idea of how many weeks since they had the first jab and none of these vaccines are 100%. Very old frail people in care homes unfortunately die on a regular basis regardless of COVID and very few people are more than 3 weeks out from their first jab. Before Christmas hardly any care homes residents were getting vaccinated.
Furthermore most care homes residents aren't getting the Pfizer jab, so the argument about changing the dosing strategy is not relevant. AZN, the evidence is much stronger to leave the second dose and the BMI are calling for the government to change for that vaccine.
Is there any correlation between care homes with higher death rates and care homes with lower staff vaccine take up?
All of this is too soon to tell anything, but that is a far bigger scandal, that there are large numbers of care home workers refusing the vaccine and still working. It should be a legal requirement of working in such environments.
They have no idea if they died because of COVID, no idea of how many weeks since they had the first jab and none of these vaccines are 100%. Very old frail people in care homes unfortunately die on a regular basis regardless of COVID and very few people are more than 3 weeks out from their first jab. Before Christmas hardly any care homes residents were getting vaccinated.
Furthermore most care homes residents aren't getting the Pfizer jab, so the argument about changing the dosing strategy is not relevant. AZN, the evidence is much stronger to leave the second dose and the BMI are calling for the government to change for that vaccine.
It is indeed disgraceful reporting. I would have had sympathy for the government if they, and specifically the PM, had not been one of the key drivers in declining journalistic standards and misinformation.
Reading the thread this morning everything seems so predictable with options polarised as has been the case for a long time
I am not convinced the public are switched on to talk of independence, or the early issues around brexit, as much as many on here think
Covid dominates everything and will continue to do so for many months
As most of you know my wife and I had the Pfizer vaccinations yesterday and the organisation of it was so impressive with the use of the military, volunteers, administrators, and of course doctors and nurses
Our doctor took time to explain how difficult Pfizer is to transport, store and use.
The max time out of store is six hours, but she also said that unlike normal vaccines the phial itself must nor be shaken and handled very carefully during the vaccination process
As I understand it the Oxford Astra Zeneca is much less complex, both in storage and injection
Anyway, we are both just so grateful to have had our first vaccination and have our card recording the date, batch number and location of the injection with space for recording the detail of the second within the next 11 weeks, according to the doctor
What most struck me about the Sunday Times piece is that only 50% of Scots want a referendum in the next 5 years and that support for independence was only 52-48. These are not the sort of figures to inspire confidence that Scotland will go down the independence route.
Ireland will be united sooner or later. It was the inevitable consequence of planting a border in the Irish sea, though in truth it has been headed that way for some time. Alastair's quite wrong to pin this on the DUP. The ethnic outlook of N Ireland has been changing and support for the union receding.
Good morning everybody. I seem to recall that, in other circumstances, 52-48 was held to be enough for some pretty significant changes.
The point that @Mysticrose was making is, of course, that it doesn't exactly look like a done deal. Using round numbers, if we assume an 85% turnout in the next independence referendum then 2% of participating voters equals about 75,000 people. If 52:48 is in any way an accurate reflection of sentiment and a net 75,000 pro-independence electors can be convinced to switch horses during the campaign then that narrow majority is erased.
It's why there was some suggestion in the past of attaining a consistent 60:40 gap before pressing for an actual vote, so as to avoid the prospect of a narrow defeat at the ballot box. The 1995 Quebec referendum was lost by a wafer thin majority and twenty-five years later there's no prospect of a third tilt on the horizon. Though that said, I think that Scotland's a different case and if there is a second defeat the campaign for a third vote begins the following morning. Stability cannot be achieved within the existing settlement, which is one more good reason for wanting to see the back of the Union.
In 1995 Yes to independence from Canada got 49% in Quebec but 26 years later there has been no indyref3.
Devomax for Quebec resolved the matter as would devomax for Scotland
Because throwing them more powers has always worked for Unionists before.
And Devomax does nothing at all to address the dreaded West Lothian Question. Au contraire: the issue of the 59 Scottish squatters in the House of Commons only becomes more acute.
Again, there is no problem in the constitutional mess that is the United Kingdom that is not resolved by getting rid of the United Kingdom.
Devomax for Holyrood plus an English Parliament would be my preferred option, though I would accept regional Assemblies within England.
Most large nations in the world now are Federal and we should become more Federal too
I suspect that England is simply too big to work well as a devolved unit alongside the other nations.
I also suspect that part of the trouble is that word "regions"- it sounds beige, bureaucratic and British Rail knocking down Euston Arch. Ugh.
We need a better name for them.
If Starmer becomes PM in 2024 expect Lord Gordon Brown to be appointed Grand High Minister for the Union and indeed to give Scotland devomax and break England up into regions and regional assemblies, or provinces if you prefer.
England in effect at the moment only exists on the rugby and football pitch (even the cricket team is actually England and Wales), otherwise it is a non existent merely ceremonial nation so it would not make that much difference
Cricket won't be a problem. The West Indies operate as a collective. You are scraping the bottom of the barrel using national sporting teams as justification for the continuation of the Union.
The Union is over. Scotland has already packed it's bags. A United Ireland will follow on shortly, by which time the demand for an independent Wales will peak over 50% shortly thereafter. You can quote me figures that Wales voted Brexit, but the demand will be one of "if they are having some of that I want some too", and the argument will again be over sovereignty rather than economics.
Boris unleashing the monster that is "sovereignty" might work against his planned legacy.
Just 49% of Scots backing independence including undecideds, only 42% of Northern Irish voters backing a United Ireland and a mere 23% of Welsh voters backing independence, little different to the 15% of English voters who currently want independence on today's ST poll does not suggest that.
Indeed the UK is more likely to rejoin the EU than Wales is to ever be independent
At least Scotland and Northern Ireland are viewed as problems which is better than the contemptuous disregard the Welsh seem to get.
The argument is that brexit has turbo charged the Scottish Indy movement.
The SNP would still be arguing for Indy even if remain had won. Makes 0 difference.
The SNP would still be arguing for it.
Brexit makes them winning it more likely. Turbocharged, even.
45% of Scots voted for independence in 2014, 62% of Scots voted Remain in 2016.
If Brexit was decisive Yes should now be on 62%+ at least.
Yet on today's ST poll Yes is on just 49% including don't knows, a pathetic rise of just 4% since Brexit
You do know turnout was slightly different between the two referendum right?
72% voted in the EU referendum, 84% voted in the independence referendum, it was not that different.
There wasn't just a difference in turnout though, the electorate was bigger in the Scottish vote as it included all Scottish residents.
How did EU citizens resident in Scotland vote in 2014?
Against. Quite likely they will vote for next time if they get the vote.
My European colleagues/compatriots in Scotland have noted the lies about staying in the EU that they were fed in 2014 and the massive disparity with the truth of Brexit. They are not happy, and not just cause of Brexit itself.
They have no idea if they died because of COVID, no idea of how many weeks since they had the first jab and none of these vaccines are 100%. Very old frail people in care homes unfortunately die on a regular basis regardless of COVID and very few people are more than 3 weeks out from their first jab. Before Christmas hardly any care homes residents were getting vaccinated.
Furthermore most care homes residents aren't getting the Pfizer jab, so the argument about changing the dosing strategy is not relevant. AZN, the evidence is much stronger to leave the second dose and the BMI are calling for the government to change for that vaccine.
It is indeed disgraceful reporting. I would have had sympathy for the government if they, and specifically the PM, had not been one of the key drivers in declining journalistic standards and misinformation.
Of sod off, the Mirror / People were European champion level in phone hacking, they made the NOTW look like part timers at it.
But this highly misleading reporting of the vaccine potentially puts huge numbers of people lives at risk. There being a debate over Pfizer timing schedule is legitimate, but their story twists different elements in a false way into something that will scare the crap out of oldies and their families.
What most struck me about the Sunday Times piece is that only 50% of Scots want a referendum in the next 5 years and that support for independence was only 52-48. These are not the sort of figures to inspire confidence that Scotland will go down the independence route.
Ireland will be united sooner or later. It was the inevitable consequence of planting a border in the Irish sea, though in truth it has been headed that way for some time. Alastair's quite wrong to pin this on the DUP. The ethnic outlook of N Ireland has been changing and support for the union receding.
Good morning everybody. I seem to recall that, in other circumstances, 52-48 was held to be enough for some pretty significant changes.
The point that @Mysticrose was making is, of course, that it doesn't exactly look like a done deal. Using round numbers, if we assume an 85% turnout in the next independence referendum then 2% of participating voters equals about 75,000 people. If 52:48 is in any way an accurate reflection of sentiment and a net 75,000 pro-independence electors can be convinced to switch horses during the campaign then that narrow majority is erased.
It's why there was some suggestion in the past of attaining a consistent 60:40 gap before pressing for an actual vote, so as to avoid the prospect of a narrow defeat at the ballot box. The 1995 Quebec referendum was lost by a wafer thin majority and twenty-five years later there's no prospect of a third tilt on the horizon. Though that said, I think that Scotland's a different case and if there is a second defeat the campaign for a third vote begins the following morning. Stability cannot be achieved within the existing settlement, which is one more good reason for wanting to see the back of the Union.
In 1995 Yes to independence from Canada got 49% in Quebec but 26 years later there has been no indyref3.
Devomax for Quebec resolved the matter as would devomax for Scotland
Because throwing them more powers has always worked for Unionists before.
And Devomax does nothing at all to address the dreaded West Lothian Question. Au contraire: the issue of the 59 Scottish squatters in the House of Commons only becomes more acute.
Again, there is no problem in the constitutional mess that is the United Kingdom that is not resolved by getting rid of the United Kingdom.
Devomax for Holyrood plus an English Parliament would be my preferred option, though I would accept regional Assemblies within England.
Most large nations in the world now are Federal and we should become more Federal too
I suspect that England is simply too big to work well as a devolved unit alongside the other nations.
I also suspect that part of the trouble is that word "regions"- it sounds beige, bureaucratic and British Rail knocking down Euston Arch. Ugh.
We need a better name for them.
If Starmer becomes PM in 2024 expect Lord Gordon Brown to be appointed Grand High Minister for the Union and indeed to give Scotland devomax and break England up into regions and regional assemblies, or provinces if you prefer.
England in effect at the moment only exists on the rugby and football pitch (even the cricket team is actually England and Wales), otherwise it is a non existent merely ceremonial nation so it would not make that much difference
Cricket won't be a problem. The West Indies operate as a collective. You are scraping the bottom of the barrel using national sporting teams as justification for the continuation of the Union.
The Union is over. Scotland has already packed it's bags. A United Ireland will follow on shortly, by which time the demand for an independent Wales will peak over 50% shortly thereafter. You can quote me figures that Wales voted Brexit, but the demand will be one of "if they are having some of that I want some too", and the argument will again be over sovereignty rather than economics.
Boris unleashing the monster that is "sovereignty" might work against his planned legacy.
Just 49% of Scots backing independence including undecideds, only 42% of Northern Irish voters backing a United Ireland and a mere 23% of Welsh voters backing independence, little different to the 15% of English voters who currently want independence on today's ST poll does not suggest that.
Indeed the UK is more likely to rejoin the EU than Wales is to ever be independent
Don't KNows all being included on your preferred side again.
That is known in the academic community as "fiddling the data".
They have no idea if they died because of COVID, no idea of how many weeks since they had the first jab and none of these vaccines are 100%. Very old frail people in care homes unfortunately die on a regular basis regardless of COVID and very few people are more than 3 weeks out from their first jab. Before Christmas hardly any care homes residents were getting vaccinated.
Furthermore most care homes residents aren't getting the Pfizer jab, so the argument about changing the dosing strategy is not relevant. AZN, the evidence is much stronger to leave the second dose and the BMA aren't calling for the government to change for that vaccine.
There will undoubtedly by a lot of similar stupid stories, which verge on being malicious to public health, coming out over the next few weeks and months as the number of vaccinated grows by millions per week. It doesn't surprise me in the slightest that the Mirror is writing such rubbish, they deserved to go out of business at least as much as the News of the World did.
What most struck me about the Sunday Times piece is that only 50% of Scots want a referendum in the next 5 years and that support for independence was only 52-48. These are not the sort of figures to inspire confidence that Scotland will go down the independence route.
Ireland will be united sooner or later. It was the inevitable consequence of planting a border in the Irish sea, though in truth it has been headed that way for some time. Alastair's quite wrong to pin this on the DUP. The ethnic outlook of N Ireland has been changing and support for the union receding.
Good morning everybody. I seem to recall that, in other circumstances, 52-48 was held to be enough for some pretty significant changes.
The point that @Mysticrose was making is, of course, that it doesn't exactly look like a done deal. Using round numbers, if we assume an 85% turnout in the next independence referendum then 2% of participating voters equals about 75,000 people. If 52:48 is in any way an accurate reflection of sentiment and a net 75,000 pro-independence electors can be convinced to switch horses during the campaign then that narrow majority is erased.
It's why there was some suggestion in the past of attaining a consistent 60:40 gap before pressing for an actual vote, so as to avoid the prospect of a narrow defeat at the ballot box. The 1995 Quebec referendum was lost by a wafer thin majority and twenty-five years later there's no prospect of a third tilt on the horizon. Though that said, I think that Scotland's a different case and if there is a second defeat the campaign for a third vote begins the following morning. Stability cannot be achieved within the existing settlement, which is one more good reason for wanting to see the back of the Union.
In 1995 Yes to independence from Canada got 49% in Quebec but 26 years later there has been no indyref3.
Devomax for Quebec resolved the matter as would devomax for Scotland
Because throwing them more powers has always worked for Unionists before.
And Devomax does nothing at all to address the dreaded West Lothian Question. Au contraire: the issue of the 59 Scottish squatters in the House of Commons only becomes more acute.
Again, there is no problem in the constitutional mess that is the United Kingdom that is not resolved by getting rid of the United Kingdom.
Devomax for Holyrood plus an English Parliament would be my preferred option, though I would accept regional Assemblies within England.
Most large nations in the world now are Federal and we should become more Federal too
I suspect that England is simply too big to work well as a devolved unit alongside the other nations.
I also suspect that part of the trouble is that word "regions"- it sounds beige, bureaucratic and British Rail knocking down Euston Arch. Ugh.
We need a better name for them.
If Starmer becomes PM in 2024 expect Lord Gordon Brown to be appointed Grand High Minister for the Union and indeed to give Scotland devomax and break England up into regions and regional assemblies, or provinces if you prefer.
England in effect at the moment only exists on the rugby and football pitch (even the cricket team is actually England and Wales), otherwise it is a non existent merely ceremonial nation so it would not make that much difference
Cricket won't be a problem. The West Indies operate as a collective. You are scraping the bottom of the barrel using national sporting teams as justification for the continuation of the Union.
The Union is over. Scotland has already packed it's bags. A United Ireland will follow on shortly, by which time the demand for an independent Wales will peak over 50% shortly thereafter. You can quote me figures that Wales voted Brexit, but the demand will be one of "if they are having some of that I want some too", and the argument will again be over sovereignty rather than economics.
Boris unleashing the monster that is "sovereignty" might work against his planned legacy.
Just 49% of Scots backing independence including undecideds, only 42% of Northern Irish voters backing a United Ireland and a mere 23% of Welsh voters backing independence, little different to the 15% of English voters who currently want independence on today's ST poll does not suggest that.
Indeed the UK is more likely to rejoin the EU than Wales is to ever be independent
You should look at longer-term direction of travel, rather than the current headline figure.
Prior to all the excitement over Scotland leaving the Union and a United Ireland, people here in Wales are deciding they no longer want to be English serfs. When the mood changes, it will change quickly.
They have no idea if they died because of COVID, no idea of how many weeks since they had the first jab and none of these vaccines are 100%. Very old frail people in care homes unfortunately die on a regular basis regardless of COVID and very few people are more than 3 weeks out from their first jab. Before Christmas hardly any care homes residents were getting vaccinated.
Furthermore most care homes residents aren't getting the Pfizer jab, so the argument about changing the dosing strategy is not relevant. AZN, the evidence is much stronger to leave the second dose and the BMA aren't calling for the government to change for that vaccine.
There will undoubtedly by a lot of similar stupid stories, which verge on being malicious to public health, coming out over the next few weeks and months as the number of vaccinated grows by millions per week. It doesn't surprise me in the slightest that the Mirror is writing such rubbish, they deserved to go out of business at least as much as the News of the World did.
It is to be hoped that one of the results of this pandemic will be a careful, thoughtful, non-partisan review of all the arrangements for Care of the (frail) Elderly, whether in Homes or their own homes.
They have no idea if they died because of COVID, no idea of how many weeks since they had the first jab and none of these vaccines are 100%. Very old frail people in care homes unfortunately die on a regular basis regardless of COVID and very few people are more than 3 weeks out from their first jab. Before Christmas hardly any care homes residents were getting vaccinated.
Furthermore most care homes residents aren't getting the Pfizer jab, so the argument about changing the dosing strategy is not relevant. AZN, the evidence is much stronger to leave the second dose and the BMA aren't calling for the government to change for that vaccine.
I think of all the mass media in this country I think Reach and the newspapers/online newspapers it owns are by far the worst, purely for the sheer truth twisting that goes on in their journalism. That's a dangerous story to publish at exactly the time people are beginning to look for signs that this might be working.
There might not be anyone on the backbenches willing to wield the knife in the middle of a national disaster. There certainly won't be the numbers required.
Letters have already been submitted because of the National disaster BoZo is presiding over
The mischievous part of me would be for Boris to form an alliance with Joe Biden around climate change, international vaccinations, NATO, and against China to the point that he actually sails past the 2024 GE in charge of all he surveys and on and on, just to see how long you keep going on about him or is this a lifelong crusade
I think of all the mass media in this country I think Reach and the newspapers/online newspapers it owns are by far the worst, purely for the sheer truth twisting that goes on in their journalism.
52% of UK voters say only vaccinated people should be allowed to travel abroad and 57% say only vaccinated people should be allowed to travel to the UK.
I don't have a problem with vaccination being compulsory for travel on aeroplanes because of the confined space. Might not need to be quite so strict on ferries, if the country you're travelling to is okay with it.
There might not be anyone on the backbenches willing to wield the knife in the middle of a national disaster. There certainly won't be the numbers required.
Letters have already been submitted because of the National disaster BoZo is presiding over
The mischievous part of me would be for Boris to form an alliance with Joe Biden around climate change, international vaccinations, NATO, and against China to the point that he actually sails past the 2024 GE in charge of all he surveys and on and on, just to see how long you keep going on about him or is this a lifelong crusade
Did you complain at Bill Cash's ultimately successful "lifelong crusade"?
Andrew RT Davies unanimously elected leader of the Welsh Tories in the Senedd again after Paul Davies' resignation.
RT is a firm Unionist and will have no time for any deals with Plaid and is ideally placed to win back votes for the Tories lost to Abolish the Assembly and to take the fight to Welsh Labour over their failures on vaccinations etc.
They have no idea if they died because of COVID, no idea of how many weeks since they had the first jab and none of these vaccines are 100%. Very old frail people in care homes unfortunately die on a regular basis regardless of COVID and very few people are more than 3 weeks out from their first jab. Before Christmas hardly any care homes residents were getting vaccinated.
Furthermore most care homes residents aren't getting the Pfizer jab, so the argument about changing the dosing strategy is not relevant. AZN, the evidence is much stronger to leave the second dose and the BMI are calling for the government to change for that vaccine.
Is there any correlation between care homes with higher death rates and care homes with lower staff vaccine take up?
All of this is too soon to tell anything, but that is a far bigger scandal, that there are large numbers of care home workers refusing the vaccine and still working. It should be a legal requirement of working in such environments.
Maybe worker power - people hardly want to do this job in the first place do they?
They have no idea if they died because of COVID, no idea of how many weeks since they had the first jab and none of these vaccines are 100%. Very old frail people in care homes unfortunately die on a regular basis regardless of COVID and very few people are more than 3 weeks out from their first jab. Before Christmas hardly any care homes residents were getting vaccinated.
Furthermore most care homes residents aren't getting the Pfizer jab, so the argument about changing the dosing strategy is not relevant. AZN, the evidence is much stronger to leave the second dose and the BMI are calling for the government to change for that vaccine.
It is indeed disgraceful reporting. I would have had sympathy for the government if they, and specifically the PM, had not been one of the key drivers in declining journalistic standards and misinformation.
To be honest the standard of journalism in this crisis is as bad as I can ever recall
“Joe, Joe, that ridiculous, racist, Churchill bust guy from England won’t stop calling. Can you please speak to him briefly so that we can get on with talking to the people who actually matter?”
Sri Lanka are having a nightmare in the field. Root 167 not out.
Its an absolutely brilliant performance from Root but the intensity of the Sri Lankan attack has been poor over the last hour and a half. It won't be this easy in India.
Anecdata on why people refuse vaccinations (source: council colleagues): Primarily, they are confused by media messaging and it's really that which needs addressing with public information broadcasts. Commandeer the BBC for 10 minutes a day, throw money at Facebook and Twitter and Snapchat and YouTube, just get the message out, use diverse multi-ethnic multi-party messengers (here we really do need community leaders) and keep it honest.
1. Are there serious side-effects? (Virtually never.) 2. Might they get the bug anyway? (Yes, but much less likely, and stay sensibly distanced for now anyway.) 3. Is the 12(+?)-week gap scientifically based? (Not really, but it's still much better than nothing.) 4. Is vaccine X better than vaccine Y? (Yes, but they're all much better than nothing.) 5. Should we trust Boris Johnson? (Not relevant.)
On the upside, someone who runs a chain of care homes says that reports of resistance there seem overblown - in her homes, 99% are taking the jab with more or less enthusiasm.
Good post, an important point on 2 is not just that it is much less likely, but that if they do catch it the severe versions are extremely rare to the point of being non existent or close to in the trials.
TV and social media dream team to do the messaging:
HMQ Prince William David Attenborough Marcus Rashford Martin Lewis Helen Mirren Deborah Meeden Mo Farah Chris Whitty Ranvir Singh
i am sorry but FFS- If this is an idea worth doing you dont want woke establishment figures doing it (which they all are ) , you want oddbods . It is probably not your typical woke middle class social media rashford lovign person not wanting the jab . Try more like Clarkson , Hitchens (he maybe anti lockdown but pragmatic about the jab ) etc
The argument is that brexit has turbo charged the Scottish Indy movement.
The SNP would still be arguing for Indy even if remain had won. Makes 0 difference.
The SNP would still be arguing for it.
Brexit makes them winning it more likely. Turbocharged, even.
45% of Scots voted for independence in 2014, 62% of Scots voted Remain in 2016.
If Brexit was decisive Yes should now be on 62%+ at least.
Yet on today's ST poll Yes is on just 49% including don't knows, a pathetic rise of just 4% since Brexit
You do know turnout was slightly different between the two referendum right?
72% voted in the EU referendum, 84% voted in the independence referendum, it was not that different.
There wasn't just a difference in turnout though, the electorate was bigger in the Scottish vote as it included all Scottish residents.
How did EU citizens resident in Scotland vote in 2014?
Against. Quite likely they will vote for next time if they get the vote.
My European colleagues/compatriots in Scotland have noted the lies about staying in the EU that they were fed in 2014 and the massive disparity with the truth of Brexit. They are not happy, and not just cause of Brexit itself.
However, the "disparity of the truth of Brexit" is why, whenever the next Referendum happens, Yes will lose. People won't see those sunlit uplands of independence either. The SNP had no answers to basic economic questions in 2014, which is why Yes lost. If anything, the feeble arguments made then have been shwon to be quite hollow in the past six years. Brexit shows the Scots that "FREEEEEDOM!!!" will not make them one jot better off.
Sri Lanka are having a nightmare in the field. Root 167 not out.
Its an absolutely brilliant performance from Root but the intensity of the Sri Lankan attack has been poor over the last hour and a half. It won't be this easy in India.
Also worrying how poor the rest of the batting line-up is...
Andrew RT Davies unanimously elected leader of the Welsh Tories in the Senedd after Paul Davies' resignation.
RT is a firm Unionist and will have no time for any deals with Plaid and is ideally placed to win back votes for the Tories lost to Abolish the Assembly
RT is an idiot of Paul Davies proportions. Infact, Paul was something of a wallflower that nobody noticed. RT is very noticeable, and not popular outside the confines of the wilder fringes of Welsh Conservativism.
Marr really has no political sense in his questioning at all does he? He has no clue about when to focus in on something rather than proceed with his planned banalities. No wonder politicians like getting interviewed by him.
Marr is a reliably poor interviewer. He is a fine write, though. In that, too, he is the reverse of Andrew Neil.
Cold causing coronaviruses are "sharply seasonal" according to peer reviewed literature. This one won't be any different. Strict restrictions through winter.
Barring catastrophic new variants, a high take up of vaccines across all age groups ought (hopefully) to avert the calamity of further lockdown cycles later in the year. However, I reckon we shan't be entirely rid of masks and social distancing until Spring 2022 (and they may come back every Winter forever, but that's a different discussion.) As with the arguments I suggested for dragging out many of the lockdown measures through the Summer, so with keeping some of them in place for longer than that: the threat of the combination of Winter Covid and Winter Flu to an exhausted and backlogged health service means that the narrative will probably move towards putting up with some countermeasures until next Winter is out of the way as well.
Looking forward to the point at which hospitality, secondary and higher education are unshuttered, which I estimate at the end of Summer/early Autumn of this year, I think we also get theatres, cinemas and spectator sporting events back, BUT with substantially reduced capacity; things like mask wearing protocols in enclosed spaces, and spacing and other extra hygiene measures maintained in hospitality through the Autumn and Winter; and certain mass gatherings (music festivals, nightclubs, mass participation runs and so on) don't come back until about Easter of next year.
That said, if enough of the population remains unvaccinated to put significant pressure back on the health service come about November time, then yes, I can see things getting worse again. That is the point at which the Government might consider attempting to force the refuseniks to have the jab.
One of my wife's cousins in Canada was ill for 7 weeks. He didn't need hospitalisation but was in a bad way - laid up in bed and any attempt to talk set off a bout of coughing. Had his first day back at work yesterday. His wife and 2 sons also had it, but just mild symptoms.
He is otherwise fit and well in his 50s. Just like me.
Andrew RT Davies unanimously elected leader of the Welsh Tories in the Senedd again after Paul Davies' resignation.
RT is a firm Unionist and will have no time for any deals with Plaid and is ideally placed to win back votes for the Tories lost to Abolish the Assembly and to take the fight to Welsh Labour over their failures on vaccinations etc.
So the choice in May for Wales is between the polite but inept Drakeford, RT Davies - the man who equivocated the Capitol riot with peaceful anti-Brexit demonstrations; or Price who sees himself as a mini Nicola in that he would spend zero time governing Wales and would bang on about independence 24/7.
Andrew RT Davies unanimously elected leader of the Welsh Tories in the Senedd after Paul Davies' resignation.
RT is a firm Unionist and will have no time for any deals with Plaid and is ideally placed to win back votes for the Tories lost to Abolish the Assembly
RT is an idiot of Paul Davies proportions. Infact, Paul was something of a wallflower that nobody noticed. RT is very noticeable, and not popular outside the confines of the wilder fringes of Welsh Conservativism.
Good news for Labour and PC.
RT is a hard hitter and firm Unionist and Brexiteer, he will unite the Welsh right behind the Tories and give Drakeford no respite.
It is bad news for Labour and also ensures no deals of any form between Plaid and the Tories after the election, RT will have no truck with that.
One of my wife's cousins in Canada was ill for 7 weeks. He didn't need hospitalisation but was in a bad way - laid up in bed and any attempt to talk set off a bout of coughing. Had his first day back at work yesterday. His wife and 2 sons also had it, but just mild symptoms.
He is otherwise fit and well in his 50s. Just like me.
The argument is that brexit has turbo charged the Scottish Indy movement.
The SNP would still be arguing for Indy even if remain had won. Makes 0 difference.
The SNP would still be arguing for it.
Brexit makes them winning it more likely. Turbocharged, even.
45% of Scots voted for independence in 2014, 62% of Scots voted Remain in 2016.
If Brexit was decisive Yes should now be on 62%+ at least.
Yet on today's ST poll Yes is on just 49% including don't knows, a pathetic rise of just 4% since Brexit
You do know turnout was slightly different between the two referendum right?
72% voted in the EU referendum, 84% voted in the independence referendum, it was not that different.
There wasn't just a difference in turnout though, the electorate was bigger in the Scottish vote as it included all Scottish residents.
How did EU citizens resident in Scotland vote in 2014?
Against. Quite likely they will vote for next time if they get the vote.
My European colleagues/compatriots in Scotland have noted the lies about staying in the EU that they were fed in 2014 and the massive disparity with the truth of Brexit. They are not happy, and not just cause of Brexit itself.
However, the "disparity of the truth of Brexit" is why, whenever the next Referendum happens, Yes will lose. People won't see those sunlit uplands of independence either. The SNP had no answers to basic economic questions in 2014, which is why Yes lost. If anything, the feeble arguments made then have been shwon to be quite hollow in the past six years. Brexit shows the Scots that "FREEEEEDOM!!!" will not make them one jot better off.
I will be heavily backing No next time too.
We haven't had the campaign yet. Or the full truth of Brexit.
I was specifically commenting on the changed attitude of the European Scots residents since 2014, which is what the previous poster was discussing.
We're running at over a thousand deaths per day and the twats are talking about easing lockdown. FFS.
Do they have any concept of how fucked we currently are?
Edinburgh down to 117 cases per week per 100,000, and falling >30% a week. A long way below any other similar-sized UK city, which makes it a prime candidate for trialling the first reopening steps ...
Unlikely to happen. Sturgeon has made big mistakes with Covid, but unlike Jhnson seems capable of learning from them. Scottish case, death and hospitalisation rates are half those of England because she didn't try to "save Christmas" or unlockdown too early.
Yep she did pretty well resisting pressure to push areas down the tiers too early, with a few exceptions such as Dumfries & Galloway that paid the price in large Christmas spikes. And I don't think she'll rush the reopening.
But I wouldn't be surprised if she reopened primary schools in areas with low and falling cases after half term, and then see how it goes. Chances are though that alone is already enough to eat up the R budget until the vaccines push R down further.
Marr really has no political sense in his questioning at all does he? He has no clue about when to focus in on something rather than proceed with his planned banalities. No wonder politicians like getting interviewed by him.
Marr is a reliably poor interviewer. He is a fine write, though. In that, too, he is the reverse of Andrew Neil.
He is a change to the too in yer face questioning that is now dominant - so in that respect he is a throw back to the 1960's style - which has it merits at times -
Andrew RT Davies unanimously elected leader of the Welsh Tories in the Senedd after Paul Davies' resignation.
RT is a firm Unionist and will have no time for any deals with Plaid and is ideally placed to win back votes for the Tories lost to Abolish the Assembly
RT is an idiot of Paul Davies proportions. Infact, Paul was something of a wallflower that nobody noticed. RT is very noticeable, and not popular outside the confines of the wilder fringes of Welsh Conservativism.
Good news for Labour and PC.
RT is a hard hitter and firm Unionist and Brexiteer, he will unite the Welsh right behind the Tories and give Drakeford no respite.
It is bad news for Labour and also ensures no deals of any form between Plaid and the Tories after the election, RT will have no truck with that.
You are always using opinion polls. The Welsh Conservatives don't have more than 30% or so conceivably. "Uniting the Welsh" implies about 80-100% and that is a looooong way off.
What most struck me about the Sunday Times piece is that only 50% of Scots want a referendum in the next 5 years and that support for independence was only 52-48. These are not the sort of figures to inspire confidence that Scotland will go down the independence route.
Ireland will be united sooner or later. It was the inevitable consequence of planting a border in the Irish sea, though in truth it has been headed that way for some time. Alastair's quite wrong to pin this on the DUP. The ethnic outlook of N Ireland has been changing and support for the union receding.
Good morning everybody. I seem to recall that, in other circumstances, 52-48 was held to be enough for some pretty significant changes.
The point that @Mysticrose was making is, of course, that it doesn't exactly look like a done deal. Using round numbers, if we assume an 85% turnout in the next independence referendum then 2% of participating voters equals about 75,000 people. If 52:48 is in any way an accurate reflection of sentiment and a net 75,000 pro-independence electors can be convinced to switch horses during the campaign then that narrow majority is erased.
It's why there was some suggestion in the past of attaining a consistent 60:40 gap before pressing for an actual vote, so as to avoid the prospect of a narrow defeat at the ballot box. The 1995 Quebec referendum was lost by a wafer thin majority and twenty-five years later there's no prospect of a third tilt on the horizon. Though that said, I think that Scotland's a different case and if there is a second defeat the campaign for a third vote begins the following morning. Stability cannot be achieved within the existing settlement, which is one more good reason for wanting to see the back of the Union.
In 1995 Yes to independence from Canada got 49% in Quebec but 26 years later there has been no indyref3.
Devomax for Quebec resolved the matter as would devomax for Scotland
Because throwing them more powers has always worked for Unionists before.
And Devomax does nothing at all to address the dreaded West Lothian Question. Au contraire: the issue of the 59 Scottish squatters in the House of Commons only becomes more acute.
Again, there is no problem in the constitutional mess that is the United Kingdom that is not resolved by getting rid of the United Kingdom.
Devomax for Holyrood plus an English Parliament would be my preferred option, though I would accept regional Assemblies within England.
Most large nations in the world now are Federal and we should become more Federal too
I suspect that England is simply too big to work well as a devolved unit alongside the other nations.
I also suspect that part of the trouble is that word "regions"- it sounds beige, bureaucratic and British Rail knocking down Euston Arch. Ugh.
We need a better name for them.
If Starmer becomes PM in 2024 expect Lord Gordon Brown to be appointed Grand High Minister for the Union and indeed to give Scotland devomax and break England up into regions and regional assemblies, or provinces if you prefer.
England in effect at the moment only exists on the rugby and football pitch (even the cricket team is actually England and Wales), otherwise it is a non existent merely ceremonial nation so it would not make that much difference
Cricket won't be a problem. The West Indies operate as a collective. You are scraping the bottom of the barrel using national sporting teams as justification for the continuation of the Union.
The Union is over. Scotland has already packed it's bags. A United Ireland will follow on shortly, by which time the demand for an independent Wales will peak over 50% shortly thereafter. You can quote me figures that Wales voted Brexit, but the demand will be one of "if they are having some of that I want some too", and the argument will again be over sovereignty rather than economics.
Boris unleashing the monster that is "sovereignty" might work against his planned legacy.
Just 49% of Scots backing independence including undecideds, only 42% of Northern Irish voters backing a United Ireland and a mere 23% of Welsh voters backing independence, little different to the 15% of English voters who currently want independence on today's ST poll does not suggest that.
Indeed the UK is more likely to rejoin the EU than Wales is to ever be independent
At least Scotland and Northern Ireland are viewed as problems which is better than the contemptuous disregard the Welsh seem to get.
The contemptuous disregard we Welsh voters receive comes from only one source, and that is Drakeford in charge of his failing labour Assembly
Andrew RT Davies unanimously elected leader of the Welsh Tories in the Senedd after Paul Davies' resignation.
RT is a firm Unionist and will have no time for any deals with Plaid and is ideally placed to win back votes for the Tories lost to Abolish the Assembly
RT is an idiot of Paul Davies proportions. Infact, Paul was something of a wallflower that nobody noticed. RT is very noticeable, and not popular outside the confines of the wilder fringes of Welsh Conservativism.
Good news for Labour and PC.
RT is a hard hitter and firm Unionist and Brexiteer, he will unite the Welsh right behind the Tories and give Drakeford no respite.
It is bad news for Labour and also ensures no deals of any form between Plaid and the Tories after the election, RT will have no truck with that.
So in the most likely scenario after the election you would be happy to see RT leading the opposition to a Plaid/Labour coalition, rather than showing what the Welsh Tories could do as part of a Government?
The voters may say that now but Scottish indie has the massive issue of currency and the £.
What other country in the world has an issue with it's currency, why should it be an issue here, like any other country they either peg to a currency or issue their own, it is not rocket science.
Absolutely true, but Salmond tripped over his own shoelaces last time around when he tried to articulate what the choice would be. It would be a very good idea for his successor to advance a clear and workable plan this time.
Ah, you didn't watch the second debate then.
It's been about six-and-a-half years, refresh my memory.
Andrew RT Davies unanimously elected leader of the Welsh Tories in the Senedd again after Paul Davies' resignation.
RT is a firm Unionist and will have no time for any deals with Plaid and is ideally placed to win back votes for the Tories lost to Abolish the Assembly and to take the fight to Welsh Labour over their failures on vaccinations etc.
So the choice in May for Wales is between the polite but inept Drakeford, RT Davies - the man who equivocated the Capitol riot with peaceful anti-Brexit demonstrations; or Price who sees himself as a mini Nicola in that he would spend zero time governing Wales and would bang on about independence 24/7.
In fairness, it wwas Ruth Davidson, not Ms Sturgeon, who kept on going on and on and on and on about No to Independence. But that is an interesting point in itself. Maybe Mr Davies will take a leaf out of her book and do the same thing, and rebrand the Welsh Torties as the RT Davies No to Independence Party.
The United Kingdom - in its current form - is finished. An absurd hodge-podge of laws and conventions, with half-finished reforms which give MPs from some places the vote on laws in other places but not vice-versa, a 2nd chamber of cronies, bishops and people sat there because an ancestor was mates with George III.
At the very least a wholesale constitutional reformation is needed to create a form of government that actually represents both the make-up of this "United" Kingdom and reflects the 21st century. English unltra-nationalists like HYUFD can no longer have the power to say "we don't care what you think, we are in charge in your country" unless the aim is to beak up the UK.
What @DavidL has done an admirable job of denying is that the Brexit deal catastrophe has turbo-charged the breakup of our country. As cretinous as the Tory government & their parrot's denials of reality are, Norniron is no longer a full partner in the UK. For GB the trade barriers have the department for International Trade advising the fix is "move abroad". For the city the outflow of cash and influence is a disaster. Like the early days of the Covid catastrophe, the impacts are brutal even if they haven't been noticed by you yet.
"Devo-Max" is the only solution to avoid the end of the UK. A federal UK, a much smaller UK government with significant "home rule" given to the 4 national parliaments. Or Scotland walks, Ireland unifies, and Wales follows. Whats more, once you go down that route the inequalities within England come to the top of the pile, and the previous sackings of the north by the south can't be repeated without the various regional independence movements (Hi @Freggles) becoming more vocal.
I don't believe the Westminster policy is capable of reform. Which makes Scottish independence inevitable. I am fully aware of this as I continue to pack boxes for my move to Scotland...
There might not be anyone on the backbenches willing to wield the knife in the middle of a national disaster. There certainly won't be the numbers required.
Letters have already been submitted because of the National disaster BoZo is presiding over
The mischievous part of me would be for Boris to form an alliance with Joe Biden around climate change, international vaccinations, NATO, and against China to the point that he actually sails past the 2024 GE in charge of all he surveys and on and on, just to see how long you keep going on about him or is this a lifelong crusade
Did you complain at Bill Cash's ultimately successful "lifelong crusade"?
To be honest I ignore Cash completely so I do not know anything about his lifelong crusade
Be interested in DavidL's opinions on this, seeems to be some issue with crown office bringing malicious charges forward even though a blind man could tell them they have no hope.
Andrew RT Davies unanimously elected leader of the Welsh Tories in the Senedd again after Paul Davies' resignation.
RT is a firm Unionist and will have no time for any deals with Plaid and is ideally placed to win back votes for the Tories lost to Abolish the Assembly and to take the fight to Welsh Labour over their failures on vaccinations etc.
Comments
I think it can be argued either way, in fairness, though I think those pushing the elective dictatorship theory tend to overdo it and undermine themselves.
Leavers drink beer.
The Tories in England would be overtaken by a nationalist party of the right, probably the latest Farage or Lawrence Fox vehicle or similar, so England would just move even further right on that scenario
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index
Put together by experts, scoring countries in multiple dimensions to give an assessment on how democratic a country is. The UK consistently scores decently in all categories and very well in some of them. It is characterised as a "full democracy", along with almost all of Western and Northern Europe.
The bill for Mr Johnson’s Brexit is coming in and that bill is a punishingly steep one. It is being paid by the fishing fleets in Scotland and the West Country that are tied up because they are unable to export their catch. It is being paid in a slump in activity at Welsh ports because the trade they used to handle is being diverted to France and Spain. It is being paid in billions of pounds worth of transactions disappearing from the City of London, which may not be much loved by all that many Britons but employs a million people, because the deal was so threadbare for the financial sector. It is being paid in car manufacturers shutting down some production because they can’t get parts across borders in time. It is being paid in tonnes of British meat exports rotting at European harbours. It is being paid by many UK businesses, especially the kind of smaller, exporting enterprises that the Tories always profess to love, which are being overwhelmed by the heavy burdens and high costs of the thin deal the prime minister rushed through parliament at the turn of the year.
You will recall that it was one of the Brexiters’ signature promises that departure from the EU would be a liberating moment. A buccaneering free trade Britain would flourish as wealth creators were unshackled from the stifling regulatory chains of Brussels. What Brexit has actually done is impose a vast amount of cumbersome and costly new bureaucracy on exporters and importers. British companies have been put in a chokehold of regulations, customs declarations, conformity assessments, health and rules-of-origin certifications, VAT demands and inflated shipping charges.
The post-Brexit world is so tough for many that the government’s own trade specialists are advising afflicted British entrepreneurs to relocate some of their operations out of the UK and to the EU. This has to be one of the greater absurdities of Brexit. British companies are being told by the British government that the way to survive is to lay off British workers and transfer their jobs to folk across the Channel.
Boris Johnson... knew enough about the importance of this issue to fib about it. On Christmas Eve, when he was hailing his agreement with the EU as a fantastic new chapter in our island story, he claimed that “there will be no non-tariff barriers to trade”. This was self-evidently untrue even at the time that he said it.
The 'plan for lifting of some restrictions' thing sounds reasonable, except what people really want is a date to lift restriction X, and that is probably not possible, so we really do have to wait and see before getting hopes up by announcing what we'd like to do once things are better.
NHS workers have been asked if they want to turn down Nicola Sturgeon’s controversial £500 Covid-19 bonus. Managers have written to employees offering them the chance to opt out of the payment after it emerged it could impact on other benefits. Low-paid health service workers receive government top-ups to wages from schemes including Universal Credit.
The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) confirmed the bonus – due to be paid next month – would be considered earnings, resulting in some payments being cut.
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/unions-hit-out-covid-19-23374235
How did EU citizens resident in Scotland vote in 2014?
TV and social media dream team to do the messaging:
HMQ
Prince William
David Attenborough
Marcus Rashford
Martin Lewis
Helen Mirren
Deborah Meeden
Mo Farah
Chris Whitty
Ranvir Singh
1. The vaccines are not 100% effective for the old and vulnerable, and Covid remains a threat to the young more generally as well. If we open too much up we still run the risk of overwhelming the hospitals
2. If there is widespread transmission of Covid amongst the young then the risk of a disastrous new variant emerging increases. It also leaves a lot more people potentially vulnerable to Long Covid, the evidence of the seriousness of which continues to increase
3. The NHS is knackered, the staff are exhausted and the routine treatment backlogs are enormous. We need to keep the pressure firmly off them, to allow them to recover and start to catch up
Conclusion: we've already been going through this for over a year now. An extra few months isn't going to make that much of a difference, and at the end of it everyone will have been jabbed and we can all be let out to play a lot more safely.
I reckon primary schools, gyms and hairdressers upon completion of phase one; shops about a month later, if there's no sign of a major disease spike; but pubs, restaurants and holidays are off until everyone's been lanced at least once, at a guess by the end of July or possibly a bit later.
Most current polls suggest Starmer could become PM with SNP confidence and supply despite the Tories still winning most seats in England.
I predict therefore that after the next general election the shift will move from Scottish and Welsh nationalism to English nationalism as England is denied what it voted for at Westminster as well as being denied its own Parliament too as Scotland and Wales have.
It will be the first time the West Lothian question really becomes an issue in England and a PM Starmer would have to solve it
The Union is over. Scotland has already packed it's bags. A United Ireland will follow on shortly, by which time the demand for an independent Wales will peak over 50% shortly thereafter. You can quote me figures that Wales voted Brexit, but the demand will be one of "if they are having some of that I want some too", and the argument will again be over sovereignty rather than economics.
Boris unleashing the monster that is "sovereignty" might work against his planned legacy.
Not that I disagree that in the circumstances the English Parliament crowd would flare up.
However, I think if things are tending that way there will be a flurry of letters to the '22 that may focus Boris' mind. The backbenches are not at all happy.
72% support making masks compulsory in all public places
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9179985/Were-sadder-poorer-fatter-Mail-Sunday-survey-finds-Britain-suffering-lockdown.html
But time to stop being depressed about my country and enjoy the snowfall.
Care home residents dying after first jab as Boris Johnson gambles on vaccine delay
Those in care homes – where residents who have had the first dose are dying before they get the second – are once again being thrown to the wolves.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/care-home-residents-dying-after-23373801
They have no idea if they died because of COVID, no idea of how many weeks since they had the first jab and none of these vaccines are 100%. Very old frail people in care homes unfortunately die on a regular basis regardless of COVID and very few people are more than 3 weeks out from their first jab. Before Christmas hardly any care homes residents were getting vaccinated.
Furthermore most care homes residents aren't getting the Pfizer jab, so the argument about changing the dosing strategy is not relevant. AZN, the evidence is much stronger to leave the second dose and the BMA aren't calling for the government to change for that vaccine.
Indeed the UK is more likely to rejoin the EU than Wales is to ever be independent
Then you start getting the opportunists looking for promotion by means of a new leader.
Boris would wan't to avoid a confidence vote within the party. It is the beginning of the end even when you win, as Tory leader. Hence this pressure from the right will help to focus his mind.
I am not convinced the public are switched on to talk of independence, or the early issues around brexit, as much as many on here think
Covid dominates everything and will continue to do so for many months
As most of you know my wife and I had the Pfizer vaccinations yesterday and the organisation of it was so impressive with the use of the military, volunteers, administrators, and of course doctors and nurses
Our doctor took time to explain how difficult Pfizer is to transport, store and use.
The max time out of store is six hours, but she also said that unlike normal vaccines the phial itself must nor be shaken and handled very carefully during the vaccination process
As I understand it the Oxford Astra Zeneca is much less complex, both in storage and injection
Anyway, we are both just so grateful to have had our first vaccination and have our card recording the date, batch number and location of the injection with space for recording the detail of the second within the next 11 weeks, according to the doctor
But this highly misleading reporting of the vaccine potentially puts huge numbers of people lives at risk. There being a debate over Pfizer timing schedule is legitimate, but their story twists different elements in a false way into something that will scare the crap out of oldies and their families.
That is known in the academic community as "fiddling the data".
Prior to all the excitement over Scotland leaving the Union and a United Ireland, people here in Wales are deciding they no longer want to be English serfs. When the mood changes, it will change quickly.
Andrew RT Davies unanimously elected leader of the Welsh Tories in the Senedd again after Paul Davies' resignation.
RT is a firm Unionist and will have no time for any deals with Plaid and is ideally placed to win back votes for the Tories lost to Abolish the Assembly and to take the fight to Welsh Labour over their failures on vaccinations etc.
https://www.conservatives.wales/news/welsh-conservatives-appoint-new-senedd-leader
https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/08/27/how-special-is-special-the-us-uk-relationship/
I will be heavily backing No next time too.
Good news for Labour and PC.
Looking forward to the point at which hospitality, secondary and higher education are unshuttered, which I estimate at the end of Summer/early Autumn of this year, I think we also get theatres, cinemas and spectator sporting events back, BUT with substantially reduced capacity; things like mask wearing protocols in enclosed spaces, and spacing and other extra hygiene measures maintained in hospitality through the Autumn and Winter; and certain mass gatherings (music festivals, nightclubs, mass participation runs and so on) don't come back until about Easter of next year.
That said, if enough of the population remains unvaccinated to put significant pressure back on the health service come about November time, then yes, I can see things getting worse again. That is the point at which the Government might consider attempting to force the refuseniks to have the jab.
Politics trumps economics.
I thought the Brexiteers had worked that one out at least...
One of my wife's cousins in Canada was ill for 7 weeks. He didn't need hospitalisation but was in a bad way - laid up in bed and any attempt to talk set off a bout of coughing. Had his first day back at work yesterday. His wife and 2 sons also had it, but just mild symptoms.
He is otherwise fit and well in his 50s. Just like me.
It is bad news for Labour and also ensures no deals of any form between Plaid and the Tories after the election, RT will have no truck with that.
I was specifically commenting on the changed attitude of the European Scots residents since 2014, which is what the previous poster was discussing.
But I wouldn't be surprised if she reopened primary schools in areas with low and falling cases after half term, and then see how it goes. Chances are though that alone is already enough to eat up the R budget until the vaccines push R down further.
At the very least a wholesale constitutional reformation is needed to create a form of government that actually represents both the make-up of this "United" Kingdom and reflects the 21st century. English unltra-nationalists like HYUFD can no longer have the power to say "we don't care what you think, we are in charge in your country" unless the aim is to beak up the UK.
What @DavidL has done an admirable job of denying is that the Brexit deal catastrophe has turbo-charged the breakup of our country. As cretinous as the Tory government & their parrot's denials of reality are, Norniron is no longer a full partner in the UK. For GB the trade barriers have the department for International Trade advising the fix is "move abroad". For the city the outflow of cash and influence is a disaster. Like the early days of the Covid catastrophe, the impacts are brutal even if they haven't been noticed by you yet.
"Devo-Max" is the only solution to avoid the end of the UK. A federal UK, a much smaller UK government with significant "home rule" given to the 4 national parliaments. Or Scotland walks, Ireland unifies, and Wales follows. Whats more, once you go down that route the inequalities within England come to the top of the pile, and the previous sackings of the north by the south can't be repeated without the various regional independence movements (Hi @Freggles) becoming more vocal.
I don't believe the Westminster policy is capable of reform. Which makes Scottish independence inevitable. I am fully aware of this as I continue to pack boxes for my move to Scotland...
https://archive.is/0GLEI#selection-1321.0-1321.83
Be interested in DavidL's opinions on this, seeems to be some issue with crown office bringing malicious charges forward even though a blind man could tell them they have no hope.
Excitement and happy faces in the streets.
Good to see.
And Drakeford is a unionist as well
Cases are linked to travellers arriving in the UK, rather than community transmission, Matt Hancock added.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55786409
FFS....