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New Ipsos MORI polling finds nearly half of Brits having favourable view of Biden – politicalbetting

SystemSystem Posts: 12,127
edited January 2021 in General
imageNew Ipsos MORI polling finds nearly half of Brits having favourable view of Biden – politicalbetting.com

In a new survey by Ipsos MORI, half of Britons (49%) are favourable towards the incoming President of the United States, Joe Biden, only 18% view him negatively. A similar proportion (47%) expect the USA to use its influence around the world mostly for good over the next four years under Biden’s presidency.

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Comments

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited January 2021
    First

    "use its influence around the world mostly for good" is sweet, though. Not how foreign policy works.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    edited January 2021
    Second. That 13% favourable for Trump seem to spend most of their time BTL at the Express.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,450
    edited January 2021
    BBC News - Alexei Navalny: Millions watch jailed critic's 'Putin palace' film
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55732296

    Up to 33 million now...i had some idea of this before, but it really os jaw dropping and Navalny has an excellent presentation, with hint of Jon Oliver, taking the piss out of purchases such as 1000 euro bog brushes.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Omnium said:

    Alistair said:

    Omnium said:

    eek said:
    Not true, but if you like not true things then great.

    Fairly easy to see why.
    Why?
    Well, actually I was just about to post an edit to say that the "If they voted like the majority of their age group" is actually fair enough.

    But suppose you vote randomly and the elections have been 50/50 then it's unlikely that as a 33 year old you'd have managed to not be with the winning side. It's even more unlikely that a 66 year old would have managed to avoid disappointment.

    So it's clear that the claim is questionable. Now consider correlations - this raises the chance that a voter might have been on the winning side hugely if they've always voted one way and that side has always won. Now we know that voters pretty much vote one way, but we certainly know that one side hasn't always won.

    So I suspect you will find a lot of 33 year olds that have never voted for the winning side (my guess would be around 40% - just because the Tories have won every election since 2010), but you'll find it quite hard to find 66 year olds that have always been celebrating on election night - I'd be a seller at 5%.
    I think the point is that the cohort overall has been shafted by democracy, not whether any given individual's record exactly matches that of the cohort.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    edited January 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    Omnium said:

    Alistair said:

    Omnium said:

    eek said:
    Not true, but if you like not true things then great.

    Fairly easy to see why.
    Why?
    Well, actually I was just about to post an edit to say that the "If they voted like the majority of their age group" is actually fair enough.

    But suppose you vote randomly and the elections have been 50/50 then it's unlikely that as a 33 year old you'd have managed to not be with the winning side. It's even more unlikely that a 66 year old would have managed to avoid disappointment.

    So it's clear that the claim is questionable. Now consider correlations - this raises the chance that a voter might have been on the winning side hugely if they've always voted one way and that side has always won. Now we know that voters pretty much vote one way, but we certainly know that one side hasn't always won.

    So I suspect you will find a lot of 33 year olds that have never voted for the winning side (my guess would be around 40% - just because the Tories have won every election since 2010), but you'll find it quite hard to find 66 year olds that have always been celebrating on election night - I'd be a seller at 5%.
    I think the point is that the cohort overall has been shafted by democracy, not whether any given individual's record exactly matches that of the cohort.
    And that the Boomer cohort have generally got all their own way.
    Not that you'd easily know it.

    Edit: Apologies if the capital B triggers anyone.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870

    kle4 said:
    And the USA still haven’t had a female head of state, while we have had a queen for more than 50% of its existence.
    I'm a monarchist and all, but I don't think we get credit for gender balance when we the public have no say in the matter, unless we actively voted for people who would rule out female monarchs.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Ftpt
    TimT said:

    Alistair said:

    TimT said:

    eek said:
    Also sounds like a totally bollocks one. The average 66-year old? What is that when it comes to binary outcomes?
    I presume it is based on who the majority of the age group the person was in at each vote voted for.

    So in 1997 thr majority of 42 year olds voted for Blair. Last year the majoriry o 65 year olds voted for Boris etc.
    So, what it is say is that:

    In 1974, the majority of 20-year-olds voted Labour
    In 1974, a small majority of 20-year-olds voted Labour again
    In 1979, the majority of 25-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1983, the majority of 29-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1987, the majority of 33-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1992, the majority of 38-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1997, the majority of 43-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2001, the majority of 47-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2005, the majority of 51-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2010, the majority of 56-year-olds voted Conservative/Lib
    In 2015, the majority of 61-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 2017, the majority of 63-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 2019, the majority of 65-year-olds voted Conservative

    I guess someone could check that. It may indeed be correct (although both 1979 and 1992 look very iffy to me), but even if it is, it tells you nothing really, except perhaps that baby-boomers were an outsize group in the population and bothered to vote.
    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-1992

    25-24 and 35-44 went Con.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,284
    edited January 2021
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:
    And the USA still haven’t had a female head of state, while we have had a queen for more than 50% of its existence.
    I'm a monarchist and all, but I don't think we get credit for gender balance when we the public have no say in the matter, unless we actively voted for people who would rule out female monarchs.
    We have had two female heads of government as well, both of whom won elections (the second by a whisker, but she was still PM after the vote which is what counts in my book).

    Edit for homophone
  • 'I had a lovely conversation with Angela Merkel yesterday morning, in which she sort of complained to me that every day she gets it from the German media that they are not doing as well as Canada is,' the Prime Minister Trudeau said on Tuesday.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9168883/Merkel-furious-media-criticised-Germanys-dismal-vaccination-program-Trudeau-reveals.html
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,450
    edited January 2021
    Oxford scientists preparing new vaccine versions to combat emerging Covid strains

    The team behind the vaccine from Oxford and AstraZeneca is undertaking feasibility studies to reconfigure the technology, the newspaper said, citing a confirmation from the Oxford University.

    A university spokesman told the newspaper that Oxford is carefully assessing the impact of new variants on vaccine immunity and evaluating the processes needed for rapid development of adjusted Covid-19 vaccines.

    Separately, British prime minister Boris Johnson said on Wednesday that the nation’s medicines regulator will be ready and able to give approval to new versions of Covid-19 vaccines designed to counter new variants of the coronavirus that may appear.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/20/oxford-scientists-preparing-new-vaccine-versions-combat-emerging/
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-october-1974

    And in '79 the youngsters did indeed go Con. Just.
  • Oxford scientists preparing new vaccine versions to combat emerging Covid strains

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/20/oxford-scientists-preparing-new-vaccine-versions-combat-emerging/

    I'm guessing the 66 year olds will be first in line.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:
    And the USA still haven’t had a female head of state, while we have had a queen for more than 50% of its existence.
    I'm a monarchist and all, but I don't think we get credit for gender balance when we the public have no say in the matter, unless we actively voted for people who would rule out female monarchs.
    We have had two female heads of government as well, both of whom won elections (the second by a whisker, but she was still PM after the vote which is what counts in my book).

    Edit for homophone
    You should never pander to homophones. Next it'll be transphones, and then...
  • Alistair said:

    Ftpt

    TimT said:

    Alistair said:

    TimT said:

    eek said:
    Also sounds like a totally bollocks one. The average 66-year old? What is that when it comes to binary outcomes?
    I presume it is based on who the majority of the age group the person was in at each vote voted for.

    So in 1997 thr majority of 42 year olds voted for Blair. Last year the majoriry o 65 year olds voted for Boris etc.
    So, what it is say is that:

    In 1974, the majority of 20-year-olds voted Labour
    In 1974, a small majority of 20-year-olds voted Labour again
    In 1979, the majority of 25-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1983, the majority of 29-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1987, the majority of 33-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1992, the majority of 38-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1997, the majority of 43-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2001, the majority of 47-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2005, the majority of 51-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2010, the majority of 56-year-olds voted Conservative/Lib
    In 2015, the majority of 61-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 2017, the majority of 63-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 2019, the majority of 65-year-olds voted Conservative

    I guess someone could check that. It may indeed be correct (although both 1979 and 1992 look very iffy to me), but even if it is, it tells you nothing really, except perhaps that baby-boomers were an outsize group in the population and bothered to vote.
    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-1992

    25-24 and 35-44 went Con.
    Only the plurality, not the majority. So the original statement is wrong.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:
    And the USA still haven’t had a female head of state, while we have had a queen for more than 50% of its existence.
    I'm a monarchist and all, but I don't think we get credit for gender balance when we the public have no say in the matter, unless we actively voted for people who would rule out female monarchs.
    We have had two female heads of government as well, both of whom won elections (the second by a whisker, but she was still PM after the vote which is what counts in my book).

    Edit for homophone
    You should never pander to homophones. Next it'll be transphones, and then...
    A panda? Where?
    Got to be careful of those pandas. They consume, open fire, and depart.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    IshmaelZ said:

    First

    "use its influence around the world mostly for good" is sweet, though. Not how foreign policy works.

    Oh, I don't know. I think what it says is that they feel that President Biden mostly has the same values as they do, so when it comes to big issues of foreign affairs he's mostly going to have the same objectives. Whereas the previous guy was only trying to feed his ego.

    Not everything in foreign policy is as nakedly a tussle for national advantage as trade disputes.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:
    And the USA still haven’t had a female head of state, while we have had a queen for more than 50% of its existence.
    I'm a monarchist and all, but I don't think we get credit for gender balance when we the public have no say in the matter, unless we actively voted for people who would rule out female monarchs.
    Though not too long ago Parliament changed the Law of Succession, so that oldest child of monarch inherits regardless of gender, which over time should increase the female percentage.

    Think we in US should get SOME credit for
    >> electing woman as Speaker of US House and thus third in line of presidential succession
    >> giving majority of popular vote to a woman for President, in 2016
    >> giving popular majority AND electing woman as Vice President in 2020

    Though I think Biden will run for re-election in 2024, and win, certainly Kamala Harris is a hot prospect, as is Nicky Haley for the Republicans. Just to mention two obvious potential POTUS of the not-so-distant future.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:
    And the USA still haven’t had a female head of state, while we have had a queen for more than 50% of its existence.
    I'm a monarchist and all, but I don't think we get credit for gender balance when we the public have no say in the matter, unless we actively voted for people who would rule out female monarchs.
    We have had two female heads of government as well, both of whom won elections (the second by a whisker, but she was still PM after the vote which is what counts in my book).

    Edit for homophone
    I count May as a winner. It wasn't a 'full' win, but being PM afterwards is what counts. Just ask Jacinda Ardern.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    IshmaelZ said:

    First

    "use its influence around the world mostly for good" is sweet, though. Not how foreign policy works.

    Oh, I don't know. I think what it says is that they feel that President Biden mostly has the same values as they do, so when it comes to big issues of foreign affairs he's mostly going to have the same objectives. Whereas the previous guy was only trying to feed his ego.

    Not everything in foreign policy is as nakedly a tussle for national advantage as trade disputes.
    Indeed. Rejoining the WHO and signing up to the Paris climate accord are two positive steps already taken.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:
    And the USA still haven’t had a female head of state, while we have had a queen for more than 50% of its existence.
    I'm a monarchist and all, but I don't think we get credit for gender balance when we the public have no say in the matter, unless we actively voted for people who would rule out female monarchs.
    Though not too long ago Parliament changed the Law of Succession, so that oldest child of monarch inherits regardless of gender, which over time should increase the female percentage.

    Think we in US should get SOME credit for
    >> electing woman as Speaker of US House and thus third in line of presidential succession
    >> giving majority of popular vote to a woman for President, in 2016
    >> giving popular majority AND electing woman as Vice President in 2020

    Though I think Biden will run for re-election in 2024, and win, certainly Kamala Harris is a hot prospect, as is Nicky Haley for the Republicans. Just to mention two obvious potential POTUS of the not-so-distant future.
    Good for Biden if he runs, and wins, again. Assuming he is capable, why not indeed.
  • Alistair said:

    Ftpt

    TimT said:

    Alistair said:

    TimT said:

    eek said:
    Also sounds like a totally bollocks one. The average 66-year old? What is that when it comes to binary outcomes?
    I presume it is based on who the majority of the age group the person was in at each vote voted for.

    So in 1997 thr majority of 42 year olds voted for Blair. Last year the majoriry o 65 year olds voted for Boris etc.
    So, what it is say is that:

    In 1974, the majority of 20-year-olds voted Labour
    In 1974, a small majority of 20-year-olds voted Labour again
    In 1979, the majority of 25-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1983, the majority of 29-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1987, the majority of 33-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1992, the majority of 38-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1997, the majority of 43-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2001, the majority of 47-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2005, the majority of 51-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2010, the majority of 56-year-olds voted Conservative/Lib
    In 2015, the majority of 61-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 2017, the majority of 63-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 2019, the majority of 65-year-olds voted Conservative

    I guess someone could check that. It may indeed be correct (although both 1979 and 1992 look very iffy to me), but even if it is, it tells you nothing really, except perhaps that baby-boomers were an outsize group in the population and bothered to vote.
    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-1992

    25-24 and 35-44 went Con.
    Only the plurality, not the majority. So the original statement is wrong.
    In fact, looking at the data I would say most people in almost any age cohort in almost any election will end up not voting for the winner.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:
    And the USA still haven’t had a female head of state, while we have had a queen for more than 50% of its existence.
    I'm a monarchist and all, but I don't think we get credit for gender balance when we the public have no say in the matter, unless we actively voted for people who would rule out female monarchs.
    Though not too long ago Parliament changed the Law of Succession, so that oldest child of monarch inherits regardless of gender, which over time should increase the female percentage.

    Think we in US should get SOME credit for
    >> electing woman as Speaker of US House and thus third in line of presidential succession
    >> giving majority of popular vote to a woman for President, in 2016
    >> giving popular majority AND electing woman as Vice President in 2020

    Though I think Biden will run for re-election in 2024, and win, certainly Kamala Harris is a hot prospect, as is Nicky Haley for the Republicans. Just to mention two obvious potential POTUS of the not-so-distant future.
    2016: Woman prevented from becoming president by bonkers electoral system
    2017: Woman saved from losing premiership by bonkers electoral system

    When it comes to giving credit for voting for women (a dubious concept in its own right), I'm not sure recent history shows the UK in as positive light as some might think.
  • Alistair said:

    Ftpt

    TimT said:

    Alistair said:

    TimT said:

    eek said:
    Also sounds like a totally bollocks one. The average 66-year old? What is that when it comes to binary outcomes?
    I presume it is based on who the majority of the age group the person was in at each vote voted for.

    So in 1997 thr majority of 42 year olds voted for Blair. Last year the majoriry o 65 year olds voted for Boris etc.
    So, what it is say is that:

    In 1974, the majority of 20-year-olds voted Labour
    In 1974, a small majority of 20-year-olds voted Labour again
    In 1979, the majority of 25-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1983, the majority of 29-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1987, the majority of 33-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1992, the majority of 38-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1997, the majority of 43-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2001, the majority of 47-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2005, the majority of 51-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2010, the majority of 56-year-olds voted Conservative/Lib
    In 2015, the majority of 61-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 2017, the majority of 63-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 2019, the majority of 65-year-olds voted Conservative

    I guess someone could check that. It may indeed be correct (although both 1979 and 1992 look very iffy to me), but even if it is, it tells you nothing really, except perhaps that baby-boomers were an outsize group in the population and bothered to vote.
    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-1992

    25-24 and 35-44 went Con.
    Only the plurality, not the majority. So the original statement is wrong.
    In fact, looking at the data I would say most people in almost any age cohort in almost any election will end up not voting for the winner.
    because, bonkers electoral system. minority rule is almost baked in.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:
    And the USA still haven’t had a female head of state, while we have had a queen for more than 50% of its existence.
    I'm a monarchist and all, but I don't think we get credit for gender balance when we the public have no say in the matter, unless we actively voted for people who would rule out female monarchs.
    Though not too long ago Parliament changed the Law of Succession, so that oldest child of monarch inherits regardless of gender, which over time should increase the female percentage.

    Think we in US should get SOME credit for
    >> electing woman as Speaker of US House and thus third in line of presidential succession
    >> giving majority of popular vote to a woman for President, in 2016
    >> giving popular majority AND electing woman as Vice President in 2020

    Though I think Biden will run for re-election in 2024, and win, certainly Kamala Harris is a hot prospect, as is Nicky Haley for the Republicans. Just to mention two obvious potential POTUS of the not-so-distant future.
    Good for Biden if he runs, and wins, again. Assuming he is capable, why not indeed.
    I think a gentle saunter rather than a run might be metaphorically more appropriate given his age and the tenor of his recent campaign.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:
    And the USA still haven’t had a female head of state, while we have had a queen for more than 50% of its existence.
    I'm a monarchist and all, but I don't think we get credit for gender balance when we the public have no say in the matter, unless we actively voted for people who would rule out female monarchs.
    The Law of Succession starts with Princess Sophia, the Elector of Hanover, chosen to be the successor to the then incumbent, Queen Anne, so I think that's not a bad starting point.

    Queen Mary aside, the female monarchs have tended to be a lot less trouble than the male. When was the last notably good King? You probably have to go back to Henry V. We could do worse than to skip Charles, William and George and give the crown to Charlotte.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:
    And the USA still haven’t had a female head of state, while we have had a queen for more than 50% of its existence.
    I'm a monarchist and all, but I don't think we get credit for gender balance when we the public have no say in the matter, unless we actively voted for people who would rule out female monarchs.
    Though not too long ago Parliament changed the Law of Succession, so that oldest child of monarch inherits regardless of gender, which over time should increase the female percentage.

    Think we in US should get SOME credit for
    >> electing woman as Speaker of US House and thus third in line of presidential succession
    >> giving majority of popular vote to a woman for President, in 2016
    >> giving popular majority AND electing woman as Vice President in 2020

    Though I think Biden will run for re-election in 2024, and win, certainly Kamala Harris is a hot prospect, as is Nicky Haley for the Republicans. Just to mention two obvious potential POTUS of the not-so-distant future.
    2016: Woman prevented from becoming president by bonkers electoral system
    2017: Woman saved from losing premiership by bonkers electoral system

    When it comes to giving credit for voting for women (a dubious concept in its own right), I'm not sure recent history shows the UK in as positive light as some might think.
    Only one major party in the UK haven’t had at least one female leader in the past decade I think (and that one hasn’t had one yet). Even they have if we count acting leaders.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:
    And the USA still haven’t had a female head of state, while we have had a queen for more than 50% of its existence.
    I'm a monarchist and all, but I don't think we get credit for gender balance when we the public have no say in the matter, unless we actively voted for people who would rule out female monarchs.
    Though not too long ago Parliament changed the Law of Succession, so that oldest child of monarch inherits regardless of gender, which over time should increase the female percentage.

    Think we in US should get SOME credit for
    >> electing woman as Speaker of US House and thus third in line of presidential succession
    >> giving majority of popular vote to a woman for President, in 2016
    >> giving popular majority AND electing woman as Vice President in 2020

    Though I think Biden will run for re-election in 2024, and win, certainly Kamala Harris is a hot prospect, as is Nicky Haley for the Republicans. Just to mention two obvious potential POTUS of the not-so-distant future.
    2016: Woman prevented from becoming president by bonkers electoral system
    2017: Woman saved from losing premiership by bonkers electoral system

    When it comes to giving credit for voting for women (a dubious concept in its own right), I'm not sure recent history shows the UK in as positive light as some might think.
    Only one major party in the UK haven’t had at least one female leader in the past decade I think (and that one hasn’t had one yet). Even they have if we count acting leaders.
    Yes, all true, but tell me how many people elected those leaders?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:
    And the USA still haven’t had a female head of state, while we have had a queen for more than 50% of its existence.
    I'm a monarchist and all, but I don't think we get credit for gender balance when we the public have no say in the matter, unless we actively voted for people who would rule out female monarchs.
    The Law of Succession starts with Princess Sophia, the Elector of Hanover, chosen to be the successor to the then incumbent, Queen Anne, so I think that's not a bad starting point.

    Queen Mary aside, the female monarchs have tended to be a lot less trouble than the male. When was the last notably good King? You probably have to go back to Henry V. We could do worse than to skip Charles, William and George and give the crown to Charlotte.
    What do 5 year old actual Princesses go to fancy dress parties as?
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,284
    edited January 2021

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:
    And the USA still haven’t had a female head of state, while we have had a queen for more than 50% of its existence.
    I'm a monarchist and all, but I don't think we get credit for gender balance when we the public have no say in the matter, unless we actively voted for people who would rule out female monarchs.
    Though not too long ago Parliament changed the Law of Succession, so that oldest child of monarch inherits regardless of gender, which over time should increase the female percentage.

    Think we in US should get SOME credit for
    >> electing woman as Speaker of US House and thus third in line of presidential succession
    >> giving majority of popular vote to a woman for President, in 2016
    >> giving popular majority AND electing woman as Vice President in 2020

    Though I think Biden will run for re-election in 2024, and win, certainly Kamala Harris is a hot prospect, as is Nicky Haley for the Republicans. Just to mention two obvious potential POTUS of the not-so-distant future.
    2016: Woman prevented from becoming president by bonkers electoral system
    2017: Woman saved from losing premiership by bonkers electoral system

    When it comes to giving credit for voting for women (a dubious concept in its own right), I'm not sure recent history shows the UK in as positive light as some might think.
    Only one major party in the UK haven’t had at least one female leader in the past decade I think (and that one hasn’t had one yet). Even they have if we count acting leaders.
    Yes, all true, but tell me how many people elected those leaders?
    Electing leaders to political parties leads to people like Trump, Corbyn, and Johnson being in charge. I think letting party leaders select them is much better as long as the electorate as a whole gets to pick the actual heads of government.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:
    And the USA still haven’t had a female head of state, while we have had a queen for more than 50% of its existence.
    I'm a monarchist and all, but I don't think we get credit for gender balance when we the public have no say in the matter, unless we actively voted for people who would rule out female monarchs.
    Though not too long ago Parliament changed the Law of Succession, so that oldest child of monarch inherits regardless of gender, which over time should increase the female percentage.

    Think we in US should get SOME credit for
    >> electing woman as Speaker of US House and thus third in line of presidential succession
    >> giving majority of popular vote to a woman for President, in 2016
    >> giving popular majority AND electing woman as Vice President in 2020

    Though I think Biden will run for re-election in 2024, and win, certainly Kamala Harris is a hot prospect, as is Nicky Haley for the Republicans. Just to mention two obvious potential POTUS of the not-so-distant future.
    2016: Woman prevented from becoming president by bonkers electoral system
    2017: Woman saved from losing premiership by bonkers electoral system

    When it comes to giving credit for voting for women (a dubious concept in its own right), I'm not sure recent history shows the UK in as positive light as some might think.
    Only one major party in the UK haven’t had at least one female leader in the past decade I think (and that one hasn’t had one yet). Even they have if we count acting leaders.
    Yes, all true, but tell me how many people elected those leaders?
    Electing leaders to political parties leads to people like Trump, Corbyn, and Johnson being in charge. I think letting party leaders select them is much better as long as the electorate as a whole gets to pick the actual heads of government.
    Perilously close to advocating for philosopher-kings there, Fysics. I won't board that particular ship, sorry.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Alistair said:

    Ftpt

    TimT said:

    Alistair said:

    TimT said:

    eek said:
    Also sounds like a totally bollocks one. The average 66-year old? What is that when it comes to binary outcomes?
    I presume it is based on who the majority of the age group the person was in at each vote voted for.

    So in 1997 thr majority of 42 year olds voted for Blair. Last year the majoriry o 65 year olds voted for Boris etc.
    So, what it is say is that:

    In 1974, the majority of 20-year-olds voted Labour
    In 1974, a small majority of 20-year-olds voted Labour again
    In 1979, the majority of 25-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1983, the majority of 29-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1987, the majority of 33-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1992, the majority of 38-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1997, the majority of 43-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2001, the majority of 47-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2005, the majority of 51-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2010, the majority of 56-year-olds voted Conservative/Lib
    In 2015, the majority of 61-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 2017, the majority of 63-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 2019, the majority of 65-year-olds voted Conservative

    I guess someone could check that. It may indeed be correct (although both 1979 and 1992 look very iffy to me), but even if it is, it tells you nothing really, except perhaps that baby-boomers were an outsize group in the population and bothered to vote.
    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-1992

    25-24 and 35-44 went Con.
    Only the plurality, not the majority. So the original statement is wrong.
    In fact, looking at the data I would say most people in almost any age cohort in almost any election will end up not voting for the winner.
    because, bonkers electoral system. minority rule is almost baked in.
    Wonderful. As progressives, we should be delighted to empower minorities any way we can.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:
    And the USA still haven’t had a female head of state, while we have had a queen for more than 50% of its existence.
    I'm a monarchist and all, but I don't think we get credit for gender balance when we the public have no say in the matter, unless we actively voted for people who would rule out female monarchs.
    Though not too long ago Parliament changed the Law of Succession, so that oldest child of monarch inherits regardless of gender, which over time should increase the female percentage.

    Think we in US should get SOME credit for
    >> electing woman as Speaker of US House and thus third in line of presidential succession
    >> giving majority of popular vote to a woman for President, in 2016
    >> giving popular majority AND electing woman as Vice President in 2020

    Though I think Biden will run for re-election in 2024, and win, certainly Kamala Harris is a hot prospect, as is Nicky Haley for the Republicans. Just to mention two obvious potential POTUS of the not-so-distant future.
    2016: Woman prevented from becoming president by bonkers electoral system
    2017: Woman saved from losing premiership by bonkers electoral system

    When it comes to giving credit for voting for women (a dubious concept in its own right), I'm not sure recent history shows the UK in as positive light as some might think.
    Only one major party in the UK haven’t had at least one female leader in the past decade I think (and that one hasn’t had one yet). Even they have if we count acting leaders.
    Yes, all true, but tell me how many people elected those leaders?
    Electing leaders to political parties leads to people like Trump, Corbyn, and Johnson being in charge. I think letting party leaders select them is much better as long as the electorate as a whole gets to pick the actual heads of government.
    I'd kind of agree with that. I get why parties open it up to their memberships, but particularly when the memberships are so much smaller than they used to be (when they didn't get votes), it doesn't really gain them all that much.

    They know it as well, given both the big parties here have procedures designed to limit the choice of their members (via different mechanisms) and we saw the troubles that arose when one of the parties ignored the point of that part of the rules by allowing a choice of someone the MPs did not want. Though some of Boris's cronies got pretty whingy about the idea he might not get put before the Members, given the MP screening process, whatever one thinks of him the Members and MPs both backed him last time.
  • Alistair said:

    Ftpt

    TimT said:

    Alistair said:

    TimT said:

    eek said:
    Also sounds like a totally bollocks one. The average 66-year old? What is that when it comes to binary outcomes?
    I presume it is based on who the majority of the age group the person was in at each vote voted for.

    So in 1997 thr majority of 42 year olds voted for Blair. Last year the majoriry o 65 year olds voted for Boris etc.
    So, what it is say is that:

    In 1974, the majority of 20-year-olds voted Labour
    In 1974, a small majority of 20-year-olds voted Labour again
    In 1979, the majority of 25-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1983, the majority of 29-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1987, the majority of 33-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1992, the majority of 38-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1997, the majority of 43-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2001, the majority of 47-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2005, the majority of 51-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2010, the majority of 56-year-olds voted Conservative/Lib
    In 2015, the majority of 61-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 2017, the majority of 63-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 2019, the majority of 65-year-olds voted Conservative

    I guess someone could check that. It may indeed be correct (although both 1979 and 1992 look very iffy to me), but even if it is, it tells you nothing really, except perhaps that baby-boomers were an outsize group in the population and bothered to vote.
    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-1992

    25-24 and 35-44 went Con.
    Only the plurality, not the majority. So the original statement is wrong.
    In fact, looking at the data I would say most people in almost any age cohort in almost any election will end up not voting for the winner.
    because, bonkers electoral system. minority rule is almost baked in.
    Wonderful. As progressives, we should be delighted to empower minorities any way we can.
    You keep your minor interests to yourself, Blue.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    IshmaelZ said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:
    And the USA still haven’t had a female head of state, while we have had a queen for more than 50% of its existence.
    I'm a monarchist and all, but I don't think we get credit for gender balance when we the public have no say in the matter, unless we actively voted for people who would rule out female monarchs.
    We have had two female heads of government as well, both of whom won elections (the second by a whisker, but she was still PM after the vote which is what counts in my book).

    Edit for homophone
    You should never pander to homophones. Next it'll be transphones, and then...
    A panda? Where?
    Got to be careful of those pandas. They consume, open fire, and depart.
    Yes it says on Wikipedia, they eat shoots and leaves
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:
    And the USA still haven’t had a female head of state, while we have had a queen for more than 50% of its existence.
    I'm a monarchist and all, but I don't think we get credit for gender balance when we the public have no say in the matter, unless we actively voted for people who would rule out female monarchs.
    Though not too long ago Parliament changed the Law of Succession, so that oldest child of monarch inherits regardless of gender, which over time should increase the female percentage.

    Think we in US should get SOME credit for
    >> electing woman as Speaker of US House and thus third in line of presidential succession
    >> giving majority of popular vote to a woman for President, in 2016
    >> giving popular majority AND electing woman as Vice President in 2020

    Though I think Biden will run for re-election in 2024, and win, certainly Kamala Harris is a hot prospect, as is Nicky Haley for the Republicans. Just to mention two obvious potential POTUS of the not-so-distant future.
    2016: Woman prevented from becoming president by bonkers electoral system
    2017: Woman saved from losing premiership by bonkers electoral system

    When it comes to giving credit for voting for women (a dubious concept in its own right), I'm not sure recent history shows the UK in as positive light as some might think.
    Only one major party in the UK haven’t had at least one female leader in the past decade I think (and that one hasn’t had one yet). Even they have if we count acting leaders.
    Yes, all true, but tell me how many people elected those leaders?
    Electing leaders to political parties leads to people like Trump, Corbyn, and Johnson being in charge. I think letting party leaders select them is much better as long as the electorate as a whole gets to pick the actual heads of government.
    I'd kind of agree with that. I get why parties open it up to their memberships, but particularly when the memberships are so much smaller than they used to be (when they didn't get votes), it doesn't really gain them all that much.

    They know it as well, given both the big parties here have procedures designed to limit the choice of their members (via different mechanisms) and we saw the troubles that arose when one of the parties ignored the point of that part of the rules by allowing a choice of someone the MPs did not want. Though some of Boris's cronies got pretty whingy about the idea he might not get put before the Members, given the MP screening process, whatever one thinks of him the Members and MPs both backed him last time.
    It's surely the fact of large parties that's the problem here. You can always get a nutter taking control of a party, but what invests people amongst the wider public who know better to vote for them come election time? It's the sense that you have to support your grand coalition of the Bad to avoid the grand coalition of the Truly Damned from getting in. So you get people who want Blair voting for Corbyn and people who want Clarke voting for Johnson.

    And we're back to bonkers electoral system. It's the bleeding wound at the heart of our politics.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:
    And the USA still haven’t had a female head of state, while we have had a queen for more than 50% of its existence.
    I'm a monarchist and all, but I don't think we get credit for gender balance when we the public have no say in the matter, unless we actively voted for people who would rule out female monarchs.
    Though not too long ago Parliament changed the Law of Succession, so that oldest child of monarch inherits regardless of gender, which over time should increase the female percentage.

    Think we in US should get SOME credit for
    >> electing woman as Speaker of US House and thus third in line of presidential succession
    >> giving majority of popular vote to a woman for President, in 2016
    >> giving popular majority AND electing woman as Vice President in 2020

    Though I think Biden will run for re-election in 2024, and win, certainly Kamala Harris is a hot prospect, as is Nicky Haley for the Republicans. Just to mention two obvious potential POTUS of the not-so-distant future.
    2016: Woman prevented from becoming president by bonkers electoral system
    2017: Woman saved from losing premiership by bonkers electoral system

    When it comes to giving credit for voting for women (a dubious concept in its own right), I'm not sure recent history shows the UK in as positive light as some might think.
    Only one major party in the UK haven’t had at least one female leader in the past decade I think (and that one hasn’t had one yet). Even they have if we count acting leaders.
    Yes, all true, but tell me how many people elected those leaders?
    Electing leaders to political parties leads to people like Trump, Corbyn, and Johnson being in charge. I think letting party leaders select them is much better as long as the electorate as a whole gets to pick the actual heads of government.
    Perilously close to advocating for philosopher-kings there, Fysics. I won't board that particular ship, sorry.
    There's quite a compelling argument that in some conditions, having more internal party democracy can be harmful to democracy overall. Party leaders have to worry more about party members than voters which gives members of the party disproportionate power, and the likelihood of a minority faction gaining control is greater.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:
    And the USA still haven’t had a female head of state, while we have had a queen for more than 50% of its existence.
    I'm a monarchist and all, but I don't think we get credit for gender balance when we the public have no say in the matter, unless we actively voted for people who would rule out female monarchs.
    Though not too long ago Parliament changed the Law of Succession, so that oldest child of monarch inherits regardless of gender, which over time should increase the female percentage.

    Think we in US should get SOME credit for
    >> electing woman as Speaker of US House and thus third in line of presidential succession
    >> giving majority of popular vote to a woman for President, in 2016
    >> giving popular majority AND electing woman as Vice President in 2020

    Though I think Biden will run for re-election in 2024, and win, certainly Kamala Harris is a hot prospect, as is Nicky Haley for the Republicans. Just to mention two obvious potential POTUS of the not-so-distant future.
    2016: Woman prevented from becoming president by bonkers electoral system
    2017: Woman saved from losing premiership by bonkers electoral system

    When it comes to giving credit for voting for women (a dubious concept in its own right), I'm not sure recent history shows the UK in as positive light as some might think.
    Only one major party in the UK haven’t had at least one female leader in the past decade I think (and that one hasn’t had one yet). Even they have if we count acting leaders.
    Yes, all true, but tell me how many people elected those leaders?
    Electing leaders to political parties leads to people like Trump, Corbyn, and Johnson being in charge. I think letting party leaders select them is much better as long as the electorate as a whole gets to pick the actual heads of government.
    Perilously close to advocating for philosopher-kings there, Fysics. I won't board that particular ship, sorry.
    There's quite a compelling argument that in some conditions, having more internal party democracy can be harmful to democracy overall. Party leaders have to worry more about party members than voters which gives members of the party disproportionate power, and the likelihood of a minority faction gaining control is greater.
    Addressed, hopefully in full, in my reply to kle.
    You raise an important problem, and, I think, propose the wrong solution.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Alistair said:

    Ftpt

    TimT said:

    Alistair said:

    TimT said:

    eek said:
    Also sounds like a totally bollocks one. The average 66-year old? What is that when it comes to binary outcomes?
    I presume it is based on who the majority of the age group the person was in at each vote voted for.

    So in 1997 thr majority of 42 year olds voted for Blair. Last year the majoriry o 65 year olds voted for Boris etc.
    So, what it is say is that:

    In 1974, the majority of 20-year-olds voted Labour
    In 1974, a small majority of 20-year-olds voted Labour again
    In 1979, the majority of 25-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1983, the majority of 29-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1987, the majority of 33-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1992, the majority of 38-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1997, the majority of 43-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2001, the majority of 47-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2005, the majority of 51-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2010, the majority of 56-year-olds voted Conservative/Lib
    In 2015, the majority of 61-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 2017, the majority of 63-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 2019, the majority of 65-year-olds voted Conservative

    I guess someone could check that. It may indeed be correct (although both 1979 and 1992 look very iffy to me), but even if it is, it tells you nothing really, except perhaps that baby-boomers were an outsize group in the population and bothered to vote.
    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-1992

    25-24 and 35-44 went Con.
    Only the plurality, not the majority. So the original statement is wrong.
    In fact, looking at the data I would say most people in almost any age cohort in almost any election will end up not voting for the winner.
    because, bonkers electoral system. minority rule is almost baked in.
    Wonderful. As progressives, we should be delighted to empower minorities any way we can.
    You keep your minor interests to yourself, Blue.
    Aren't you a Lib Dem? That's pretty much their Mastermind subject.
  • Alistair said:

    Ftpt

    TimT said:

    Alistair said:

    TimT said:

    eek said:
    Also sounds like a totally bollocks one. The average 66-year old? What is that when it comes to binary outcomes?
    I presume it is based on who the majority of the age group the person was in at each vote voted for.

    So in 1997 thr majority of 42 year olds voted for Blair. Last year the majoriry o 65 year olds voted for Boris etc.
    So, what it is say is that:

    In 1974, the majority of 20-year-olds voted Labour
    In 1974, a small majority of 20-year-olds voted Labour again
    In 1979, the majority of 25-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1983, the majority of 29-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1987, the majority of 33-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1992, the majority of 38-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1997, the majority of 43-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2001, the majority of 47-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2005, the majority of 51-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2010, the majority of 56-year-olds voted Conservative/Lib
    In 2015, the majority of 61-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 2017, the majority of 63-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 2019, the majority of 65-year-olds voted Conservative

    I guess someone could check that. It may indeed be correct (although both 1979 and 1992 look very iffy to me), but even if it is, it tells you nothing really, except perhaps that baby-boomers were an outsize group in the population and bothered to vote.
    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-1992

    25-24 and 35-44 went Con.
    Only the plurality, not the majority. So the original statement is wrong.
    In fact, looking at the data I would say most people in almost any age cohort in almost any election will end up not voting for the winner.
    because, bonkers electoral system. minority rule is almost baked in.
    Wonderful. As progressives, we should be delighted to empower minorities any way we can.
    You keep your minor interests to yourself, Blue.
    Aren't you a Lib Dem? That's pretty much their Mastermind subject.
    No, I'm not a Lib Dem.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Alistair said:

    Ftpt

    TimT said:

    Alistair said:

    TimT said:

    eek said:
    Also sounds like a totally bollocks one. The average 66-year old? What is that when it comes to binary outcomes?
    I presume it is based on who the majority of the age group the person was in at each vote voted for.

    So in 1997 thr majority of 42 year olds voted for Blair. Last year the majoriry o 65 year olds voted for Boris etc.
    So, what it is say is that:

    In 1974, the majority of 20-year-olds voted Labour
    In 1974, a small majority of 20-year-olds voted Labour again
    In 1979, the majority of 25-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1983, the majority of 29-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1987, the majority of 33-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1992, the majority of 38-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1997, the majority of 43-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2001, the majority of 47-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2005, the majority of 51-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2010, the majority of 56-year-olds voted Conservative/Lib
    In 2015, the majority of 61-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 2017, the majority of 63-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 2019, the majority of 65-year-olds voted Conservative

    I guess someone could check that. It may indeed be correct (although both 1979 and 1992 look very iffy to me), but even if it is, it tells you nothing really, except perhaps that baby-boomers were an outsize group in the population and bothered to vote.
    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-1992

    25-24 and 35-44 went Con.
    Only the plurality, not the majority. So the original statement is wrong.
    In fact, looking at the data I would say most people in almost any age cohort in almost any election will end up not voting for the winner.
    because, bonkers electoral system. minority rule is almost baked in.
    Wonderful. As progressives, we should be delighted to empower minorities any way we can.
    You keep your minor interests to yourself, Blue.
    Aren't you a Lib Dem? That's pretty much their Mastermind subject.
    No, I'm not a Lib Dem.
    It's easy to lose track. Last time you were expressing your fervent wish to become a member of the SNP out of fear of what England was becoming, so who knows?
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:
    And the USA still haven’t had a female head of state, while we have had a queen for more than 50% of its existence.
    I'm a monarchist and all, but I don't think we get credit for gender balance when we the public have no say in the matter, unless we actively voted for people who would rule out female monarchs.
    Though not too long ago Parliament changed the Law of Succession, so that oldest child of monarch inherits regardless of gender, which over time should increase the female percentage.

    Think we in US should get SOME credit for
    >> electing woman as Speaker of US House and thus third in line of presidential succession
    >> giving majority of popular vote to a woman for President, in 2016
    >> giving popular majority AND electing woman as Vice President in 2020

    Though I think Biden will run for re-election in 2024, and win, certainly Kamala Harris is a hot prospect, as is Nicky Haley for the Republicans. Just to mention two obvious potential POTUS of the not-so-distant future.
    2016: Woman prevented from becoming president by bonkers electoral system
    2017: Woman saved from losing premiership by bonkers electoral system

    When it comes to giving credit for voting for women (a dubious concept in its own right), I'm not sure recent history shows the UK in as positive light as some might think.
    Only one major party in the UK haven’t had at least one female leader in the past decade I think (and that one hasn’t had one yet). Even they have if we count acting leaders.
    Yes, all true, but tell me how many people elected those leaders?
    Electing leaders to political parties leads to people like Trump, Corbyn, and Johnson being in charge. I think letting party leaders select them is much better as long as the electorate as a whole gets to pick the actual heads of government.
    Perilously close to advocating for philosopher-kings there, Fysics. I won't board that particular ship, sorry.
    There's quite a compelling argument that in some conditions, having more internal party democracy can be harmful to democracy overall. Party leaders have to worry more about party members than voters which gives members of the party disproportionate power, and the likelihood of a minority faction gaining control is greater.
    That’s a really good thought I haven’t considered before. When someone gets a majority in UK election we would like them to govern for the whole electorate and national interest, not fan clubs at back of a conference hall wearing poll tax or CND t shirts?
  • Alistair said:

    Ftpt

    TimT said:

    Alistair said:

    TimT said:

    eek said:
    Also sounds like a totally bollocks one. The average 66-year old? What is that when it comes to binary outcomes?
    I presume it is based on who the majority of the age group the person was in at each vote voted for.

    So in 1997 thr majority of 42 year olds voted for Blair. Last year the majoriry o 65 year olds voted for Boris etc.
    So, what it is say is that:

    In 1974, the majority of 20-year-olds voted Labour
    In 1974, a small majority of 20-year-olds voted Labour again
    In 1979, the majority of 25-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1983, the majority of 29-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1987, the majority of 33-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1992, the majority of 38-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1997, the majority of 43-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2001, the majority of 47-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2005, the majority of 51-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2010, the majority of 56-year-olds voted Conservative/Lib
    In 2015, the majority of 61-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 2017, the majority of 63-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 2019, the majority of 65-year-olds voted Conservative

    I guess someone could check that. It may indeed be correct (although both 1979 and 1992 look very iffy to me), but even if it is, it tells you nothing really, except perhaps that baby-boomers were an outsize group in the population and bothered to vote.
    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-1992

    25-24 and 35-44 went Con.
    Only the plurality, not the majority. So the original statement is wrong.
    In fact, looking at the data I would say most people in almost any age cohort in almost any election will end up not voting for the winner.
    because, bonkers electoral system. minority rule is almost baked in.
    Wonderful. As progressives, we should be delighted to empower minorities any way we can.
    You keep your minor interests to yourself, Blue.
    Aren't you a Lib Dem? That's pretty much their Mastermind subject.
    No, I'm not a Lib Dem.
    It's easy to lose track. Last time you were expressing your fervent wish to become a member of the SNP out of fear of what England was becoming, so who knows?
    No, I said I was tempted to join in solidarity because I'm fucked off with the headbangers who think it's acceptable to hold a country against its will. And I was referring to being afraid of what the UK is becoming.
    If you jumped to Lib Dem from that, I can't really help you.
  • Mary_BattyMary_Batty Posts: 630
    edited January 2021
    gealbhan said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:
    And the USA still haven’t had a female head of state, while we have had a queen for more than 50% of its existence.
    I'm a monarchist and all, but I don't think we get credit for gender balance when we the public have no say in the matter, unless we actively voted for people who would rule out female monarchs.
    Though not too long ago Parliament changed the Law of Succession, so that oldest child of monarch inherits regardless of gender, which over time should increase the female percentage.

    Think we in US should get SOME credit for
    >> electing woman as Speaker of US House and thus third in line of presidential succession
    >> giving majority of popular vote to a woman for President, in 2016
    >> giving popular majority AND electing woman as Vice President in 2020

    Though I think Biden will run for re-election in 2024, and win, certainly Kamala Harris is a hot prospect, as is Nicky Haley for the Republicans. Just to mention two obvious potential POTUS of the not-so-distant future.
    2016: Woman prevented from becoming president by bonkers electoral system
    2017: Woman saved from losing premiership by bonkers electoral system

    When it comes to giving credit for voting for women (a dubious concept in its own right), I'm not sure recent history shows the UK in as positive light as some might think.
    Only one major party in the UK haven’t had at least one female leader in the past decade I think (and that one hasn’t had one yet). Even they have if we count acting leaders.
    Yes, all true, but tell me how many people elected those leaders?
    Electing leaders to political parties leads to people like Trump, Corbyn, and Johnson being in charge. I think letting party leaders select them is much better as long as the electorate as a whole gets to pick the actual heads of government.
    Perilously close to advocating for philosopher-kings there, Fysics. I won't board that particular ship, sorry.
    There's quite a compelling argument that in some conditions, having more internal party democracy can be harmful to democracy overall. Party leaders have to worry more about party members than voters which gives members of the party disproportionate power, and the likelihood of a minority faction gaining control is greater.
    That’s a really good thought I haven’t considered before. When someone gets a majority in UK election we would like them to govern for the whole electorate and national interest, not fan clubs at back of a conference hall wearing poll tax or CND t shirts?
    Do you think a good way to start would be to ensure that to get a majority, they have to first have a majority of votes? It feels like a pretty solid democratic firewall to me.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Alistair said:

    Ftpt

    TimT said:

    Alistair said:

    TimT said:

    eek said:
    Also sounds like a totally bollocks one. The average 66-year old? What is that when it comes to binary outcomes?
    I presume it is based on who the majority of the age group the person was in at each vote voted for.

    So in 1997 thr majority of 42 year olds voted for Blair. Last year the majoriry o 65 year olds voted for Boris etc.
    So, what it is say is that:

    In 1974, the majority of 20-year-olds voted Labour
    In 1974, a small majority of 20-year-olds voted Labour again
    In 1979, the majority of 25-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1983, the majority of 29-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1987, the majority of 33-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1992, the majority of 38-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1997, the majority of 43-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2001, the majority of 47-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2005, the majority of 51-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2010, the majority of 56-year-olds voted Conservative/Lib
    In 2015, the majority of 61-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 2017, the majority of 63-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 2019, the majority of 65-year-olds voted Conservative

    I guess someone could check that. It may indeed be correct (although both 1979 and 1992 look very iffy to me), but even if it is, it tells you nothing really, except perhaps that baby-boomers were an outsize group in the population and bothered to vote.
    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-1992

    25-24 and 35-44 went Con.
    Only the plurality, not the majority. So the original statement is wrong.
    In fact, looking at the data I would say most people in almost any age cohort in almost any election will end up not voting for the winner.
    because, bonkers electoral system. minority rule is almost baked in.
    Wonderful. As progressives, we should be delighted to empower minorities any way we can.
    You keep your minor interests to yourself, Blue.
    Aren't you a Lib Dem? That's pretty much their Mastermind subject.
    No, I'm not a Lib Dem.
    It's easy to lose track. Last time you were expressing your fervent wish to become a member of the SNP out of fear of what England was becoming, so who knows?
    No, I said I was tempted to join in solidarity because I'm fucked off with the headbangers who think it's acceptable to hold a country against its will. And I was referring to being afraid of what the UK is becoming.
    If you jumped to Lib Dem from that, I can't really help you.
    Well, that plus your wholehearted swallowing of every woke nostrum around. No doubt you're too cool to associate yourself with any party with a membership greater than one.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,165
    Good news: around 10% of UK adults have received the vaccine.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/
  • Vice President Harris has sworn in new US Senators Ossoff, Warnock and Padilla (her successor as Senator from California).
  • Alistair said:

    Ftpt

    TimT said:

    Alistair said:

    TimT said:

    eek said:
    Also sounds like a totally bollocks one. The average 66-year old? What is that when it comes to binary outcomes?
    I presume it is based on who the majority of the age group the person was in at each vote voted for.

    So in 1997 thr majority of 42 year olds voted for Blair. Last year the majoriry o 65 year olds voted for Boris etc.
    So, what it is say is that:

    In 1974, the majority of 20-year-olds voted Labour
    In 1974, a small majority of 20-year-olds voted Labour again
    In 1979, the majority of 25-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1983, the majority of 29-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1987, the majority of 33-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1992, the majority of 38-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1997, the majority of 43-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2001, the majority of 47-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2005, the majority of 51-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2010, the majority of 56-year-olds voted Conservative/Lib
    In 2015, the majority of 61-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 2017, the majority of 63-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 2019, the majority of 65-year-olds voted Conservative

    I guess someone could check that. It may indeed be correct (although both 1979 and 1992 look very iffy to me), but even if it is, it tells you nothing really, except perhaps that baby-boomers were an outsize group in the population and bothered to vote.
    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-1992

    25-24 and 35-44 went Con.
    Only the plurality, not the majority. So the original statement is wrong.
    In fact, looking at the data I would say most people in almost any age cohort in almost any election will end up not voting for the winner.
    because, bonkers electoral system. minority rule is almost baked in.
    Wonderful. As progressives, we should be delighted to empower minorities any way we can.
    You keep your minor interests to yourself, Blue.
    Aren't you a Lib Dem? That's pretty much their Mastermind subject.
    No, I'm not a Lib Dem.
    It's easy to lose track. Last time you were expressing your fervent wish to become a member of the SNP out of fear of what England was becoming, so who knows?
    No, I said I was tempted to join in solidarity because I'm fucked off with the headbangers who think it's acceptable to hold a country against its will. And I was referring to being afraid of what the UK is becoming.
    If you jumped to Lib Dem from that, I can't really help you.
    Well, that plus your wholehearted swallowing of every woke nostrum around. No doubt you're too cool to associate yourself with any party with a membership greater than one.
    Hmmm, I'd ask which "woke nostra" you think I've been swallowing, but frankly I think you're just flailing around for your usual bogeymen, looking for a decent line of attack and resorting to guesswork. It's not very interesting. If you want to pursue a grudge, at least start with some decent material. Until then, stop your flirting.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    gealbhan said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:
    And the USA still haven’t had a female head of state, while we have had a queen for more than 50% of its existence.
    I'm a monarchist and all, but I don't think we get credit for gender balance when we the public have no say in the matter, unless we actively voted for people who would rule out female monarchs.
    Though not too long ago Parliament changed the Law of Succession, so that oldest child of monarch inherits regardless of gender, which over time should increase the female percentage.

    Think we in US should get SOME credit for
    >> electing woman as Speaker of US House and thus third in line of presidential succession
    >> giving majority of popular vote to a woman for President, in 2016
    >> giving popular majority AND electing woman as Vice President in 2020

    Though I think Biden will run for re-election in 2024, and win, certainly Kamala Harris is a hot prospect, as is Nicky Haley for the Republicans. Just to mention two obvious potential POTUS of the not-so-distant future.
    2016: Woman prevented from becoming president by bonkers electoral system
    2017: Woman saved from losing premiership by bonkers electoral system

    When it comes to giving credit for voting for women (a dubious concept in its own right), I'm not sure recent history shows the UK in as positive light as some might think.
    Only one major party in the UK haven’t had at least one female leader in the past decade I think (and that one hasn’t had one yet). Even they have if we count acting leaders.
    Yes, all true, but tell me how many people elected those leaders?
    Electing leaders to political parties leads to people like Trump, Corbyn, and Johnson being in charge. I think letting party leaders select them is much better as long as the electorate as a whole gets to pick the actual heads of government.
    Perilously close to advocating for philosopher-kings there, Fysics. I won't board that particular ship, sorry.
    There's quite a compelling argument that in some conditions, having more internal party democracy can be harmful to democracy overall. Party leaders have to worry more about party members than voters which gives members of the party disproportionate power, and the likelihood of a minority faction gaining control is greater.
    That’s a really good thought I haven’t considered before. When someone gets a majority in UK election we would like them to govern for the whole electorate and national interest, not fan clubs at back of a conference hall wearing poll tax or CND t shirts?
    Do you think a good way to start would be to ensure that to get a majority, they have to first have a majority of votes? It feels like a pretty solid democratic firewall to me.
    I like these democracy questions because they are never black and white. For example to take representative democracy is not simply to communicate the wishes of the electorate but to use their own judgment in the exercise of their powers, even if their views are not reflective of those of a majority of voters to a logical conclusion, the parliament does gain from secret voting in the chamber because the whips and party machines cannot whip. However voters who vote to elect or remove representatives may not know how they voted. And to answer your question, I think this is at the heart of it - electing a representative to parliament, or electing a party machine with policy stances to Downing Street? Which also feeds back into what williglen just said, how much policy making teeth do you want party members to have, because the opposite argument to willi’s point would be okay then, the Cummingses would be running the policy direction. Is that democracy?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Alistair said:

    Ftpt

    TimT said:

    Alistair said:

    TimT said:

    eek said:
    Also sounds like a totally bollocks one. The average 66-year old? What is that when it comes to binary outcomes?
    I presume it is based on who the majority of the age group the person was in at each vote voted for.

    So in 1997 thr majority of 42 year olds voted for Blair. Last year the majoriry o 65 year olds voted for Boris etc.
    So, what it is say is that:

    In 1974, the majority of 20-year-olds voted Labour
    In 1974, a small majority of 20-year-olds voted Labour again
    In 1979, the majority of 25-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1983, the majority of 29-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1987, the majority of 33-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1992, the majority of 38-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1997, the majority of 43-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2001, the majority of 47-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2005, the majority of 51-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2010, the majority of 56-year-olds voted Conservative/Lib
    In 2015, the majority of 61-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 2017, the majority of 63-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 2019, the majority of 65-year-olds voted Conservative

    I guess someone could check that. It may indeed be correct (although both 1979 and 1992 look very iffy to me), but even if it is, it tells you nothing really, except perhaps that baby-boomers were an outsize group in the population and bothered to vote.
    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-1992

    25-24 and 35-44 went Con.
    Only the plurality, not the majority. So the original statement is wrong.
    In fact, looking at the data I would say most people in almost any age cohort in almost any election will end up not voting for the winner.
    because, bonkers electoral system. minority rule is almost baked in.
    Wonderful. As progressives, we should be delighted to empower minorities any way we can.
    You keep your minor interests to yourself, Blue.
    Aren't you a Lib Dem? That's pretty much their Mastermind subject.
    No, I'm not a Lib Dem.
    It's easy to lose track. Last time you were expressing your fervent wish to become a member of the SNP out of fear of what England was becoming, so who knows?
    No, I said I was tempted to join in solidarity because I'm fucked off with the headbangers who think it's acceptable to hold a country against its will. And I was referring to being afraid of what the UK is becoming.
    If you jumped to Lib Dem from that, I can't really help you.
    Well, that plus your wholehearted swallowing of every woke nostrum around. No doubt you're too cool to associate yourself with any party with a membership greater than one.
    Hmmm, I'd ask which "woke nostra" you think I've been swallowing, but frankly I think you're just flailing around for your usual bogeymen, looking for a decent line of attack and resorting to guesswork. It's not very interesting. If you want to pursue a grudge, at least start with some decent material. Until then, stop your flirting.
    You're greatly overestimating how interesting I find you. By all means, continue to be a sphinx without a secret.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:
    And the USA still haven’t had a female head of state, while we have had a queen for more than 50% of its existence.
    I'm a monarchist and all, but I don't think we get credit for gender balance when we the public have no say in the matter, unless we actively voted for people who would rule out female monarchs.
    The Law of Succession starts with Princess Sophia, the Elector of Hanover, chosen to be the successor to the then incumbent, Queen Anne, so I think that's not a bad starting point.

    Queen Mary aside, the female monarchs have tended to be a lot less trouble than the male. When was the last notably good King? You probably have to go back to Henry V. We could do worse than to skip Charles, William and George and give the crown to Charlotte.
    Somewhat unfair on George VI, no?
  • gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:
    And the USA still haven’t had a female head of state, while we have had a queen for more than 50% of its existence.
    I'm a monarchist and all, but I don't think we get credit for gender balance when we the public have no say in the matter, unless we actively voted for people who would rule out female monarchs.
    Though not too long ago Parliament changed the Law of Succession, so that oldest child of monarch inherits regardless of gender, which over time should increase the female percentage.

    Think we in US should get SOME credit for
    >> electing woman as Speaker of US House and thus third in line of presidential succession
    >> giving majority of popular vote to a woman for President, in 2016
    >> giving popular majority AND electing woman as Vice President in 2020

    Though I think Biden will run for re-election in 2024, and win, certainly Kamala Harris is a hot prospect, as is Nicky Haley for the Republicans. Just to mention two obvious potential POTUS of the not-so-distant future.
    2016: Woman prevented from becoming president by bonkers electoral system
    2017: Woman saved from losing premiership by bonkers electoral system

    When it comes to giving credit for voting for women (a dubious concept in its own right), I'm not sure recent history shows the UK in as positive light as some might think.
    Only one major party in the UK haven’t had at least one female leader in the past decade I think (and that one hasn’t had one yet). Even they have if we count acting leaders.
    Yes, all true, but tell me how many people elected those leaders?
    Electing leaders to political parties leads to people like Trump, Corbyn, and Johnson being in charge. I think letting party leaders select them is much better as long as the electorate as a whole gets to pick the actual heads of government.
    Perilously close to advocating for philosopher-kings there, Fysics. I won't board that particular ship, sorry.
    There's quite a compelling argument that in some conditions, having more internal party democracy can be harmful to democracy overall. Party leaders have to worry more about party members than voters which gives members of the party disproportionate power, and the likelihood of a minority faction gaining control is greater.
    That’s a really good thought I haven’t considered before. When someone gets a majority in UK election we would like them to govern for the whole electorate and national interest, not fan clubs at back of a conference hall wearing poll tax or CND t shirts?
    Do you think a good way to start would be to ensure that to get a majority, they have to first have a majority of votes? It feels like a pretty solid democratic firewall to me.
    I like these democracy questions because they are never black and white. For example to take representative democracy is not simply to communicate the wishes of the electorate but to use their own judgment in the exercise of their powers, even if their views are not reflective of those of a majority of voters to a logical conclusion, the parliament does gain from secret voting in the chamber because the whips and party machines cannot whip. However voters who vote to elect or remove representatives may not know how they voted. And to answer your question, I think this is at the heart of it - electing a representative to parliament, or electing a party machine with policy stances to Downing Street? Which also feeds back into what williglen just said, how much policy making teeth do you want party members to have, because the opposite argument to willi’s point would be okay then, the Cummingses would be running the policy direction. Is that democracy?
    Some very good points in there. I let them stand for themselves and add that smaller parties can be more responsive to nuances. Why isn't there an anti-EU pro-Scottish independence party? Why isn't there a socially conservative pro-Europe party? Why is Northern Ireland largely locked into conservative unionist versus socialist republican? The poor sods who are forced to shuttle back and forth between parties who represent this part or that part of their politics deserve better than this.
    Capitalism's strength is that a free market brings choice to the consumer. Why do we have such barriers to entry in politics? If Westminster were an industrial sector, the duopoly would have been broken apart ages ago. We have an economy geared towards the consumer, but a politics geared towards the producers. And it's not working.
  • Alistair said:

    Ftpt

    TimT said:

    Alistair said:

    TimT said:

    eek said:
    Also sounds like a totally bollocks one. The average 66-year old? What is that when it comes to binary outcomes?
    I presume it is based on who the majority of the age group the person was in at each vote voted for.

    So in 1997 thr majority of 42 year olds voted for Blair. Last year the majoriry o 65 year olds voted for Boris etc.
    So, what it is say is that:

    In 1974, the majority of 20-year-olds voted Labour
    In 1974, a small majority of 20-year-olds voted Labour again
    In 1979, the majority of 25-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1983, the majority of 29-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1987, the majority of 33-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1992, the majority of 38-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1997, the majority of 43-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2001, the majority of 47-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2005, the majority of 51-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2010, the majority of 56-year-olds voted Conservative/Lib
    In 2015, the majority of 61-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 2017, the majority of 63-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 2019, the majority of 65-year-olds voted Conservative

    I guess someone could check that. It may indeed be correct (although both 1979 and 1992 look very iffy to me), but even if it is, it tells you nothing really, except perhaps that baby-boomers were an outsize group in the population and bothered to vote.
    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-1992

    25-24 and 35-44 went Con.
    Only the plurality, not the majority. So the original statement is wrong.
    In fact, looking at the data I would say most people in almost any age cohort in almost any election will end up not voting for the winner.
    because, bonkers electoral system. minority rule is almost baked in.
    Wonderful. As progressives, we should be delighted to empower minorities any way we can.
    You keep your minor interests to yourself, Blue.
    Aren't you a Lib Dem? That's pretty much their Mastermind subject.
    No, I'm not a Lib Dem.
    It's easy to lose track. Last time you were expressing your fervent wish to become a member of the SNP out of fear of what England was becoming, so who knows?
    No, I said I was tempted to join in solidarity because I'm fucked off with the headbangers who think it's acceptable to hold a country against its will. And I was referring to being afraid of what the UK is becoming.
    If you jumped to Lib Dem from that, I can't really help you.
    Well, that plus your wholehearted swallowing of every woke nostrum around. No doubt you're too cool to associate yourself with any party with a membership greater than one.
    Hmmm, I'd ask which "woke nostra" you think I've been swallowing, but frankly I think you're just flailing around for your usual bogeymen, looking for a decent line of attack and resorting to guesswork. It's not very interesting. If you want to pursue a grudge, at least start with some decent material. Until then, stop your flirting.
    You're greatly overestimating how interesting I find you. By all means, continue to be a sphinx without a secret.
    I'm not even sure I find myself that interesting. So I'm surprised at the attention. There are better people on here for you to talk to. Off you go now.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:
    And the USA still haven’t had a female head of state, while we have had a queen for more than 50% of its existence.
    I'm a monarchist and all, but I don't think we get credit for gender balance when we the public have no say in the matter, unless we actively voted for people who would rule out female monarchs.
    Though not too long ago Parliament changed the Law of Succession, so that oldest child of monarch inherits regardless of gender, which over time should increase the female percentage.

    Think we in US should get SOME credit for
    >> electing woman as Speaker of US House and thus third in line of presidential succession
    >> giving majority of popular vote to a woman for President, in 2016
    >> giving popular majority AND electing woman as Vice President in 2020

    Though I think Biden will run for re-election in 2024, and win, certainly Kamala Harris is a hot prospect, as is Nicky Haley for the Republicans. Just to mention two obvious potential POTUS of the not-so-distant future.
    2016: Woman prevented from becoming president by bonkers electoral system
    2017: Woman saved from losing premiership by bonkers electoral system

    When it comes to giving credit for voting for women (a dubious concept in its own right), I'm not sure recent history shows the UK in as positive light as some might think.
    Only one major party in the UK haven’t had at least one female leader in the past decade I think (and that one hasn’t had one yet). Even they have if we count acting leaders.
    Yes, all true, but tell me how many people elected those leaders?
    Electing leaders to political parties leads to people like Trump, Corbyn, and Johnson being in charge. I think letting party leaders select them is much better as long as the electorate as a whole gets to pick the actual heads of government.
    Perilously close to advocating for philosopher-kings there, Fysics. I won't board that particular ship, sorry.
    There's quite a compelling argument that in some conditions, having more internal party democracy can be harmful to democracy overall. Party leaders have to worry more about party members than voters which gives members of the party disproportionate power, and the likelihood of a minority faction gaining control is greater.
    That’s a really good thought I haven’t considered before. When someone gets a majority in UK election we would like them to govern for the whole electorate and national interest, not fan clubs at back of a conference hall wearing poll tax or CND t shirts?
    Do you think a good way to start would be to ensure that to get a majority, they have to first have a majority of votes? It feels like a pretty solid democratic firewall to me.
    I like these democracy questions because they are never black and white. For example to take representative democracy is not simply to communicate the wishes of the electorate but to use their own judgment in the exercise of their powers, even if their views are not reflective of those of a majority of voters to a logical conclusion, the parliament does gain from secret voting in the chamber because the whips and party machines cannot whip. However voters who vote to elect or remove representatives may not know how they voted. And to answer your question, I think this is at the heart of it - electing a representative to parliament, or electing a party machine with policy stances to Downing Street? Which also feeds back into what williglen just said, how much policy making teeth do you want party members to have, because the opposite argument to willi’s point would be okay then, the Cummingses would be running the policy direction. Is that democracy?
    Some very good points in there. I let them stand for themselves and add that smaller parties can be more responsive to nuances. Why isn't there an anti-EU pro-Scottish independence party? Why isn't there a socially conservative pro-Europe party? Why is Northern Ireland largely locked into conservative unionist versus socialist republican? The poor sods who are forced to shuttle back and forth between parties who represent this part or that part of their politics deserve better than this.
    Capitalism's strength is that a free market brings choice to the consumer. Why do we have such barriers to entry in politics? If Westminster were an industrial sector, the duopoly would have been broken apart ages ago. We have an economy geared towards the consumer, but a politics geared towards the producers. And it's not working.
    I like the idea democracy is about tolerating and incorporating minority views in decision making, representative democracy allows for more efficient scrutiny by a sufficiently small number of people with time and skills, who have maturity of judgment and unbiased in opinion to go into forensic depth and come to a more enlightened conclusion on behalf of all people and points of view. The complete opposite of that is the Brexit referendum for example. So to answer your question, no, it’s not important for whoever takes Downing Street to have won an election 52 to 48 for example, because the ultimate democracy would be getting your agenda passed by the scrutiny and skills in parliament.

    Ultra’s on the right and Left would raise other questions about democracy, such who owns and controls the media, who appoints the judiciary, to whom and what are the military beholden.

    And that is sort of close to the point you just made, how is a mould broken? Considering the potential to vote for Farage, and support for him in media, why do they end up voting Conservative at GE instead? How could a Farage of the left break through? Why can’t greens breakthrough in mainland Britain or Ireland in parliamentary elections. The answer to that is really straightforward, introduce the electoral system they have in Germany here, and the sectarian and tribal mould would shatter.
  • Interesting watching the news conference then for Biden's first press conference. A return to professionalism and a competent televised daily briefing with a press spokesperson who reminded me of CJ Cregg - like Biden rather boring but getting on with the job. But also showing it in its best.

    Also made me think again at their best, even if boring, what a good idea it is to have this level of televised daily scrutiny from the media. It is long overdue for this to be brought over here.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    One last thought from the inauguration, why did Biden keep calling himself Robin Hood?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,354
    edited January 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    Good news: around 10% of UK adults have received the vaccine.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/

    UK and Canada the only countries to have awarded vaccine contracts for more than 400% of their population.

    Which, if they all come in, means we can be a net vaccine provider as part of aid around the globe. And Boris can travel that globe delivering vaccines and getting photo ops in jab-poor South Africa, Colombia, Indonesia and France.
  • In honor of our new President -

    I'M FROM DELAWARE
    by Todd Chappelle

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2yJT98Q-v9U
  • Endillion said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:
    And the USA still haven’t had a female head of state, while we have had a queen for more than 50% of its existence.
    I'm a monarchist and all, but I don't think we get credit for gender balance when we the public have no say in the matter, unless we actively voted for people who would rule out female monarchs.
    The Law of Succession starts with Princess Sophia, the Elector of Hanover, chosen to be the successor to the then incumbent, Queen Anne, so I think that's not a bad starting point.

    Queen Mary aside, the female monarchs have tended to be a lot less trouble than the male. When was the last notably good King? You probably have to go back to Henry V. We could do worse than to skip Charles, William and George and give the crown to Charlotte.
    Somewhat unfair on George VI, no?
    Both George V and VI are under-rated today. Both were models of (dare I say it) proper constitutional monarchs. Given their deeply conservative personalities & procivities, they worked hard and effectively to support their Liberal and Labour prime ministers every bit as much as their Conservative ones. Each was a pretty ordinary man married to an extraordinary woman - and thankful for it.

    Above all, father and son, they did their duty to their country (by their lights) the best they could, in times of crisis and peril. What's not to like?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,450
    edited January 2021
    Coronavirus cases 'DIDN'T fall during the first ten days of Lockdown 3.0': Imperial College study finds number of positive tests 'barely changed'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9168531/Coronavirus-cases-DIDNT-fall-ten-days-Englands-lockdown-major-study-claims.html

    Where PB leads....we have talked about how we thought it was likely the case that the first few days of lockdown don't do anything to squashing COVID and why 2 week firebreak is flawed.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456

    In honor of our new President -

    I'M FROM DELAWARE
    by Todd Chappelle

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2yJT98Q-v9U

    The worst traffic jam I have ever been in was in Delaware. Travelling from DC to NY in August, major accident where 95 and 295/the NJ Turnpike meet (overturned tractor trailer carrying thousands of beehives) shut down both major arteries. All the holiday traffic turned off onto the Delaware back roads trying to find a way around the blockage.
  • TimT said:

    In honor of our new President -

    I'M FROM DELAWARE
    by Todd Chappelle

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2yJT98Q-v9U

    The worst traffic jam I have ever been in was in Delaware. Travelling from DC to NY in August, major accident where 95 and 295/the NJ Turnpike meet (overturned tractor trailer carrying thousands of beehives) shut down both major arteries. All the holiday traffic turned off onto the Delaware back roads trying to find a way around the blockage.
    Sounds like it created quite the buzz!

    Traveled across DE on the interstate from MD to NJ. Always scared me just a little - sometimes a lot.
  • Nigelb said:
    So the only person that can talk down to people seems to be biden then!
  • Nigelb said:
    So the only person that can talk down to people seems to be biden then!
    Talking straight. Big difference.

    These are NOT the "little people" they are top political appointees, directly responsible to the President and answerable to him. AND most especially speaking in HIS name.

    Worse problems yours truly ever had boss-wise, were with those who did NOT tell you the score straight up.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456

    TimT said:

    In honor of our new President -

    I'M FROM DELAWARE
    by Todd Chappelle

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2yJT98Q-v9U

    The worst traffic jam I have ever been in was in Delaware. Travelling from DC to NY in August, major accident where 95 and 295/the NJ Turnpike meet (overturned tractor trailer carrying thousands of beehives) shut down both major arteries. All the holiday traffic turned off onto the Delaware back roads trying to find a way around the blockage.
    Sounds like it created quite the buzz!

    Traveled across DE on the interstate from MD to NJ. Always scared me just a little - sometimes a lot.
    Yep. Where 95/295 join can be crazy. And then there is that bridge over the Susquehanna a bit further south on 95.
  • TimT said:

    In honor of our new President -

    I'M FROM DELAWARE
    by Todd Chappelle

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2yJT98Q-v9U

    The worst traffic jam I have ever been in was in Delaware. Travelling from DC to NY in August, major accident where 95 and 295/the NJ Turnpike meet (overturned tractor trailer carrying thousands of beehives) shut down both major arteries. All the holiday traffic turned off onto the Delaware back roads trying to find a way around the blockage.
    Sounds like it created quite the buzz!

    Traveled across DE on the interstate from MD to NJ. Always scared me just a little - sometimes a lot.
    Should add that my only semi-substantial road trip was when I had some time, so first dinged around looking for where Delaware, Maryland and Pennsylvania converge. Then driving south across the Chesapeake & Delaware Canal into southern Delaware, southern in direction AND culturally. Home of the famous Blue Hen.

    Tootled down to Dover, which is a small town whose cottage industry happens to be state government (of a small state). Then headed west to the Maryland line, which was about ten miles away, and crossed Chesapeake Bay with what seemed like a hundred thousand cars heading back from the beach to metro DC.

    One of the items on my life's ambitions, as yet unrealized, is to visit the Cape Fenwick lighthouse, the seaward terminus of the Delaware-Maryland border, one of the starting points for Mason and Dixon when they surveyed this portion of their famous line.

    Admittedly, it's a pretty pathetic ambition. But so it goes.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,214

    Coronavirus cases 'DIDN'T fall during the first ten days of Lockdown 3.0': Imperial College study finds number of positive tests 'barely changed'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9168531/Coronavirus-cases-DIDNT-fall-ten-days-Englands-lockdown-major-study-claims.html

    Where PB leads....we have talked about how we thought it was likely the case that the first few days of lockdown don't do anything to squashing COVID and why 2 week firebreak is flawed.

    A 1 day lockdown would reduce cases vs what they would have been otherwise.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:
    And the USA still haven’t had a female head of state, while we have had a queen for more than 50% of its existence.
    I'm a monarchist and all, but I don't think we get credit for gender balance when we the public have no say in the matter, unless we actively voted for people who would rule out female monarchs.
    Though not too long ago Parliament changed the Law of Succession, so that oldest child of monarch inherits regardless of gender, which over time should increase the female percentage.

    Think we in US should get SOME credit for
    >> electing woman as Speaker of US House and thus third in line of presidential succession
    >> giving majority of popular vote to a woman for President, in 2016
    >> giving popular majority AND electing woman as Vice President in 2020

    Though I think Biden will run for re-election in 2024, and win, certainly Kamala Harris is a hot prospect, as is Nicky Haley for the Republicans. Just to mention two obvious potential POTUS of the not-so-distant future.
    2016: Woman prevented from becoming president by bonkers electoral system
    2017: Woman saved from losing premiership by bonkers electoral system

    When it comes to giving credit for voting for women (a dubious concept in its own right), I'm not sure recent history shows the UK in as positive light as some might think.
    Only one major party in the UK haven’t had at least one female leader in the past decade I think (and that one hasn’t had one yet). Even they have if we count acting leaders.
    Yes, all true, but tell me how many people elected those leaders?
    Tens of thousands of times more people than elected Kamala Harris to her position as VP nominee.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    BBC News - Alexei Navalny: Millions watch jailed critic's 'Putin palace' film
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55732296

    Up to 33 million now...i had some idea of this before, but it really os jaw dropping and Navalny has an excellent presentation, with hint of Jon Oliver, taking the piss out of purchases such as 1000 euro bog brushes.

    He must be playing a very long game, releasing a video like that just as he goes back to Russia (and straight to jail).

    IMO he has a much greater chance of simply disappearing into Siberia, than of being free and able to run in the next election.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456

    TimT said:

    In honor of our new President -

    I'M FROM DELAWARE
    by Todd Chappelle

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2yJT98Q-v9U

    The worst traffic jam I have ever been in was in Delaware. Travelling from DC to NY in August, major accident where 95 and 295/the NJ Turnpike meet (overturned tractor trailer carrying thousands of beehives) shut down both major arteries. All the holiday traffic turned off onto the Delaware back roads trying to find a way around the blockage.
    Sounds like it created quite the buzz!

    Traveled across DE on the interstate from MD to NJ. Always scared me just a little - sometimes a lot.
    Should add that my only semi-substantial road trip was when I had some time, so first dinged around looking for where Delaware, Maryland and Pennsylvania converge. Then driving south across the Chesapeake & Delaware Canal into southern Delaware, southern in direction AND culturally. Home of the famous Blue Hen.

    Tootled down to Dover, which is a small town whose cottage industry happens to be state government (of a small state). Then headed west to the Maryland line, which was about ten miles away, and crossed Chesapeake Bay with what seemed like a hundred thousand cars heading back from the beach to metro DC.

    One of the items on my life's ambitions, as yet unrealized, is to visit the Cape Fenwick lighthouse, the seaward terminus of the Delaware-Maryland border, one of the starting points for Mason and Dixon when they surveyed this portion of their famous line.

    Admittedly, it's a pretty pathetic ambition. But so it goes.
    Fenwick Island is one of the few nice-ish parts of that coastline these days.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited January 2021

    Coronavirus cases 'DIDN'T fall during the first ten days of Lockdown 3.0': Imperial College study finds number of positive tests 'barely changed'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9168531/Coronavirus-cases-DIDNT-fall-ten-days-Englands-lockdown-major-study-claims.html

    Where PB leads....we have talked about how we thought it was likely the case that the first few days of lockdown don't do anything to squashing COVID and why 2 week firebreak is flawed.

    Don't drag me into your trope please.

    The Imperial college data is lagging behind and it's clear that lockdowns do work and so do firebreaks. In c. 3 weeks Imperial college data will catch up. There is now a clear and definite downturn in infection rates.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited January 2021
    This is the moment the Senate officially flipped. A 2-minute clip.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/20/politics/democratic-senators-swearing-in/index.html

    Jon Ossoff finally becomes a Senator, four months after I tipped him on here as a good bet. Smug? No, it's just that all pb punters know that warm glow when a bet comes off.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    IshmaelZ said:

    Omnium said:

    Alistair said:

    Omnium said:

    eek said:
    Not true, but if you like not true things then great.

    Fairly easy to see why.
    Why?
    Well, actually I was just about to post an edit to say that the "If they voted like the majority of their age group" is actually fair enough.

    But suppose you vote randomly and the elections have been 50/50 then it's unlikely that as a 33 year old you'd have managed to not be with the winning side. It's even more unlikely that a 66 year old would have managed to avoid disappointment.

    So it's clear that the claim is questionable. Now consider correlations - this raises the chance that a voter might have been on the winning side hugely if they've always voted one way and that side has always won. Now we know that voters pretty much vote one way, but we certainly know that one side hasn't always won.

    So I suspect you will find a lot of 33 year olds that have never voted for the winning side (my guess would be around 40% - just because the Tories have won every election since 2010), but you'll find it quite hard to find 66 year olds that have always been celebrating on election night - I'd be a seller at 5%.
    I think the point is that the cohort overall has been shafted by democracy, not whether any given individual's record exactly matches that of the cohort.
    Of course, this is quite selective. The same is not true for 34-42 year olds.

    I’m 34 and have voted in five GEs and two UK-wide referendums. My record is:

    2005 - Lost
    2010 - Won
    2011 - Won
    2015 - Lost
    2016 - Won
    2017 - Lost
    2019 - Won

    Obviously you can argue that I did win in 2015, but it wasn’t just about Europe it was about Osbrown economics.

    Personally I don’t think my generation and the next one have been shafted by democracy. We’ve been shafted by Gordon Brown, George Osborne and the Bank of England.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,463
    tlg86 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Omnium said:

    Alistair said:

    Omnium said:

    eek said:
    Not true, but if you like not true things then great.

    Fairly easy to see why.
    Why?
    Well, actually I was just about to post an edit to say that the "If they voted like the majority of their age group" is actually fair enough.

    But suppose you vote randomly and the elections have been 50/50 then it's unlikely that as a 33 year old you'd have managed to not be with the winning side. It's even more unlikely that a 66 year old would have managed to avoid disappointment.

    So it's clear that the claim is questionable. Now consider correlations - this raises the chance that a voter might have been on the winning side hugely if they've always voted one way and that side has always won. Now we know that voters pretty much vote one way, but we certainly know that one side hasn't always won.

    So I suspect you will find a lot of 33 year olds that have never voted for the winning side (my guess would be around 40% - just because the Tories have won every election since 2010), but you'll find it quite hard to find 66 year olds that have always been celebrating on election night - I'd be a seller at 5%.
    I think the point is that the cohort overall has been shafted by democracy, not whether any given individual's record exactly matches that of the cohort.
    Of course, this is quite selective. The same is not true for 34-42 year olds.

    I’m 34 and have voted in five GEs and two UK-wide referendums. My record is:

    2005 - Lost
    2010 - Won
    2011 - Won
    2015 - Lost
    2016 - Won
    2017 - Lost
    2019 - Won

    Obviously you can argue that I did win in 2015, but it wasn’t just about Europe it was about Osbrown economics.

    Personally I don’t think my generation and the next one have been shafted by democracy. We’ve been shafted by Gordon Brown, George Osborne and the Bank of England.
    What is it the BOE are supposed to have done?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123

    tlg86 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Omnium said:

    Alistair said:

    Omnium said:

    eek said:
    Not true, but if you like not true things then great.

    Fairly easy to see why.
    Why?
    Well, actually I was just about to post an edit to say that the "If they voted like the majority of their age group" is actually fair enough.

    But suppose you vote randomly and the elections have been 50/50 then it's unlikely that as a 33 year old you'd have managed to not be with the winning side. It's even more unlikely that a 66 year old would have managed to avoid disappointment.

    So it's clear that the claim is questionable. Now consider correlations - this raises the chance that a voter might have been on the winning side hugely if they've always voted one way and that side has always won. Now we know that voters pretty much vote one way, but we certainly know that one side hasn't always won.

    So I suspect you will find a lot of 33 year olds that have never voted for the winning side (my guess would be around 40% - just because the Tories have won every election since 2010), but you'll find it quite hard to find 66 year olds that have always been celebrating on election night - I'd be a seller at 5%.
    I think the point is that the cohort overall has been shafted by democracy, not whether any given individual's record exactly matches that of the cohort.
    Of course, this is quite selective. The same is not true for 34-42 year olds.

    I’m 34 and have voted in five GEs and two UK-wide referendums. My record is:

    2005 - Lost
    2010 - Won
    2011 - Won
    2015 - Lost
    2016 - Won
    2017 - Lost
    2019 - Won

    Obviously you can argue that I did win in 2015, but it wasn’t just about Europe it was about Osbrown economics.

    Personally I don’t think my generation and the next one have been shafted by democracy. We’ve been shafted by Gordon Brown, George Osborne and the Bank of England.
    What is it the BOE are supposed to have done?
    Left interest rates at rock bottom despite an allegedly strong economy between 2012 and 2016 (and after, but I guess Brexit was the excuse).

    Thankfully, talk of negative rates appears to have subsided.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/

    I thought the figures for last few days might suggest that the vaccine was starting to have an impact on the overall number of deaths. But Israel added a load more yesterday so perhaps not.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    edited January 2021
    Good morning, everyone.

    Most of the power's out here. Didn't think the winds would be that high but wondering if the storm's damaged power lines. Excitingly, as you may've noticed, the computer and internet are still (currently) up. Less excitingly, the lights and heating are not.

    Edited extra bit: on the plus side, the solar lantern (which isn't broken and can only be recharged from the plug...) I bought some months ago is proving of some practical use right now.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Good morning, everyone.

    Most of the power's out here. Didn't think the winds would be that high but wondering if the storm's damaged power lines. Excitingly, as you may've noticed, the computer and internet are still (currently) up. Less excitingly, the lights and heating are not.

    Edited extra bit: on the plus side, the solar lantern (which isn't broken and can only be recharged from the plug...) I bought some months ago is proving of some practical use right now.

    Sorry to hear of your travails, Mr Dancer. I hope the heating is fixed soon.

    Out of curiosity, what is the point of a solar lantern you can only recharge from the plug?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Sandpit said:

    BBC News - Alexei Navalny: Millions watch jailed critic's 'Putin palace' film
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55732296

    Up to 33 million now...i had some idea of this before, but it really os jaw dropping and Navalny has an excellent presentation, with hint of Jon Oliver, taking the piss out of purchases such as 1000 euro bog brushes.

    He must be playing a very long game, releasing a video like that just as he goes back to Russia (and straight to jail).

    IMO he has a much greater chance of simply disappearing into Siberia, than of being free and able to run in the next election.
    He is either very clever, or very stupid, but certainly very brave and patriotic.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    edited January 2021
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    BBC News - Alexei Navalny: Millions watch jailed critic's 'Putin palace' film
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55732296

    Up to 33 million now...i had some idea of this before, but it really os jaw dropping and Navalny has an excellent presentation, with hint of Jon Oliver, taking the piss out of purchases such as 1000 euro bog brushes.

    He must be playing a very long game, releasing a video like that just as he goes back to Russia (and straight to jail).

    IMO he has a much greater chance of simply disappearing into Siberia, than of being free and able to run in the next election.
    He is either very clever, or very stupid, but certainly very brave and patriotic.
    I’m not thinking it’s clever to release something like that three years before the next presidential election, tbh. Three months would have had much more impact.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    tlg86 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Omnium said:

    Alistair said:

    Omnium said:

    eek said:
    Not true, but if you like not true things then great.

    Fairly easy to see why.
    Why?
    Well, actually I was just about to post an edit to say that the "If they voted like the majority of their age group" is actually fair enough.

    But suppose you vote randomly and the elections have been 50/50 then it's unlikely that as a 33 year old you'd have managed to not be with the winning side. It's even more unlikely that a 66 year old would have managed to avoid disappointment.

    So it's clear that the claim is questionable. Now consider correlations - this raises the chance that a voter might have been on the winning side hugely if they've always voted one way and that side has always won. Now we know that voters pretty much vote one way, but we certainly know that one side hasn't always won.

    So I suspect you will find a lot of 33 year olds that have never voted for the winning side (my guess would be around 40% - just because the Tories have won every election since 2010), but you'll find it quite hard to find 66 year olds that have always been celebrating on election night - I'd be a seller at 5%.
    I think the point is that the cohort overall has been shafted by democracy, not whether any given individual's record exactly matches that of the cohort.
    Of course, this is quite selective. The same is not true for 34-42 year olds.

    I’m 34 and have voted in five GEs and two UK-wide referendums. My record is:

    2005 - Lost
    2010 - Won
    2011 - Won
    2015 - Lost
    2016 - Won
    2017 - Lost
    2019 - Won

    Obviously you can argue that I did win in 2015, but it wasn’t just about Europe it was about Osbrown economics.

    Personally I don’t think my generation and the next one have been shafted by democracy. We’ve been shafted by Gordon Brown, George Osborne and the Bank of England.
    I have voted in 10 General Elections and 2 referendums. In only 3 GE's has the party I voted for won (1997, 2001 and 2010) and neither of the referendums. In my mid fifties, I have only had a government that represents me for a fraction of my life, so yes, I understand how the young feel alienated from politics and how it doesn't represent them.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Coronavirus cases 'DIDN'T fall during the first ten days of Lockdown 3.0': Imperial College study finds number of positive tests 'barely changed'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9168531/Coronavirus-cases-DIDNT-fall-ten-days-Englands-lockdown-major-study-claims.html

    Where PB leads....we have talked about how we thought it was likely the case that the first few days of lockdown don't do anything to squashing COVID and why 2 week firebreak is flawed.

    Don't drag me into your trope please.

    The Imperial college data is lagging behind and it's clear that lockdowns do work and so do firebreaks. In c. 3 weeks Imperial college data will catch up. There is now a clear and definite downturn in infection rates.
    Whilst there is obviously the problem of misuse/misrepresentation, it is not inconsistent (absent actual data to the contrary) to simultaneously advance the arguments that

    1) Lockdowns "work"
    2) Initial days of lockdowns can generate increases in cases (and by extension argue against "firebreaks"

    For two reasons.

    1) the issue of behaviour outside of the lockdown. A pre-announced lockdown may lead to behaviour prior to the lockdown that contributes to increased transmission. And even without pre-announcing (in the context of a 'firebreak', there is the potential impact of adverse behaviour once the lockdown is lifted (if the lockdown period hasn't clamped down sufficiently on case numbers). It should also be noted that advocates of the "firebreak" policy were arguing for a number of scheduled short lockdowns to allow businesses to "plan" around them. Of course this makes them pre-announced and would result, not just in businesses planning around them, but also people planning their social calendar around them.

    2) Potential for increased (or at least accelerated) intra household transmission in the first few days, particularly if the lockdown involves home schooling. Lockdowns result in people within households spending more time together, increasing the likelihood of transmission where one individual is entering the lockdown infected.

    In the long run (and this of course depends on the extent, and is made harder by more transmissable variants), lockdowns should 'work' by ultimately preventing transmission between households. Those households which enter lockdown uninfected will exit it in the same way. Those entering it infected will burn themselves out. But this is not inconsistent with a lack of immediate short term infectiveness.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    While the adults are back in charge in America, we still have a petulant toddler in Downing Street...

    https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1352156166466498560
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Scott_xP said:

    While the adults are back in charge in America, we still have a petulant toddler in Downing Street...

    https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1352156166466498560

    More evidence of the Uk Govt just being a series of separate islands, unable to function as a coherent whole. On the one hand you have those involved in trade desperately trying to reassure businesses that they are working through difficult issues with their European "partners", to resolve "teething difficulties" arisings from the implementation of the post Brexit trade deal. Whilst another hand is saying that they won't deal with those same EU partners on an equal basis.

    All to the detriment of the country.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    ydoethur said:

    And that’s the reason why although the EU isn’t likely to break up, it’s also never likely to be really popular.

    https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1352162681810268160
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    While the adults are back in charge in America, we still have a petulant toddler in Downing Street...

    https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1352156166466498560

    Two petulant toddlers, surely?

    Although actually, Johnson is (for once) right about this. The EU isn’t a country and it shouldn’t be exchanging diplomats. As for their claims that the UK is a signatory to the Lisbon Treaty, in case they haven’t noticed, we’ve left and are no longer a signatory.

    Moreover, the Lisbon Treaty was signed over the strenuous objections of the party currently in power, partly because of this idea that the EU should have its own foreign service, and we all know no parliament can bind its successors.

    It’s the EU that are behaving like petulant toddlers here, and are in any case wrong about their status. They’re showing themselves at their pompous, stuck up, unselfaware and stupid worst, as over, say, that illegal ban on our beef.

    And that’s the reason why although the EU isn’t likely to break up, it’s also never likely to be really popular.
    Diplomatic immunity should be limited anyway. It should not include protection against illegal activities such as murder, rape, etc. The parking fines are anoyher ridiculous irritation.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    And that’s the reason why although the EU isn’t likely to break up, it’s also never likely to be really popular.

    https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1352162681810268160
    Seems a non-sequitur Scott. Why shouldn’t banning travel during a pandemic be popular?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    edited January 2021
    Scott_xP said:

    Meanwhile...

    https://twitter.com/MarinaHyde/status/ 1352162543209508866

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/ 1352156886783709184

    Well, he is right. Nobody expected we would be closed because after the mass of fraud, corruption and incompetence at the DfE to deliberately conceal and falsify the true infection rates in order to keep schools open and themselves relevant nobody expected that they would suddenly be forced to confront reality like this. I actually bet that regardless of the deaths it would cause, they would keep schools open - not to help children, but to save face.

    And truthfully, life would be pleasanter if we were not in this situation, but since it is at least partly the aforementioned fraud corruption and incompetence at the DfE that brought us to it - insofar as if they had looked at blended learning or closed schools a fortnight early in the worst hit areas, things would not have been as bad - it’s not worth giving them a gold star for effort.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited January 2021
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Well, he is right. Nobody expected we would be closed because after the mass of fraud, corruption and incompetence at the DfE to deliberately conceal and falsify the true infection rates in order to keep schools open and themselves relevant that they would suddenly be forced to confront reality like this. I actually bet that regardless of the deaths it would cause, they would keep schools open - not to help children, but to save face.

    And truthfully, life would be pleasanter if we were not in this situation, but since it is at least partly the aforementioned fraud corruption and incompetence at the DfE that brought us to it - insofar as if they had looked at blended learning or closed schools a fortnight early in the worst hit areas, things would not have been as bad - it’s not worth giving them a good start for effort.
    They should have been making contingency plans for national home learning last summer. It's scary how in so many areas over the last few years we have discovered that contingency planning (or more accurately lack of it),across large and crucial areas of government, appears to have been driven by anticipation of the world as the Government would like it to be, and not by the world as it could be if things don't go as hoped. In fact the very scenarios that contingency planning is designed for.

    People should be asking serious questions about what else the Government hasn't currently got contingency plans for, but i fear that the answers would be too horrific to be made public.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,354
    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    And that’s the reason why although the EU isn’t likely to break up, it’s also never likely to be really popular.

    https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1352162681810268160
    It's far easier to ban us, than have us all swanning around the EU this summer showing off our vaccination certificates.

    "What are those???", incredulous EU residents would be asking. That would never do. No, not at all....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    While the adults are back in charge in America, we still have a petulant toddler in Downing Street...

    https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1352156166466498560

    Two petulant toddlers, surely?

    Although actually, Johnson is (for once) right about this. The EU isn’t a country and it shouldn’t be exchanging diplomats. As for their claims that the UK is a signatory to the Lisbon Treaty, in case they haven’t noticed, we’ve left and are no longer a signatory.

    Moreover, the Lisbon Treaty was signed over the strenuous objections of the party currently in power, partly because of this idea that the EU should have its own foreign service, and we all know no parliament can bind its successors.

    It’s the EU that are behaving like petulant toddlers here, and are in any case wrong about their status. They’re showing themselves at their pompous, stuck up, unselfaware and stupid worst, as over, say, that illegal ban on our beef.

    And that’s the reason why although the EU isn’t likely to break up, it’s also never likely to be really popular.
    We do though have diplomatic relations with a number of other non countries, such as the UN and NATO.

    Though there is some irony in the Brexiterrs insisting the EU is a superstate, yet refusing to accept it as such.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited January 2021
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    While the adults are back in charge in America, we still have a petulant toddler in Downing Street...

    https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1352156166466498560

    Two petulant toddlers, surely?

    Although actually, Johnson is (for once) right about this. The EU isn’t a country and it shouldn’t be exchanging diplomats. As for their claims that the UK is a signatory to the Lisbon Treaty, in case they haven’t noticed, we’ve left and are no longer a signatory.

    Moreover, the Lisbon Treaty was signed over the strenuous objections of the party currently in power, partly because of this idea that the EU should have its own foreign service, and we all know no parliament can bind its successors.

    It’s the EU that are behaving like petulant toddlers here, and are in any case wrong about their status. They’re showing themselves at their pompous, stuck up, unselfaware and stupid worst, as over, say, that illegal ban on our beef.

    And that’s the reason why although the EU isn’t likely to break up, it’s also never likely to be really popular.
    We do though have diplomatic relations with a number of other non countries, such as the UN and NATO.

    Though there is some irony in the Brexiterrs insisting the EU is a superstate, yet refusing to accept it as such.
    Is this guy (UK ambassador to the EU) still in position? Wonder how we view his status?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Mr. Doethur, it's meant to be solar or plug, but it took me a while (because it runs for a decent length of time) to realise the solar aspect didn't work.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,888
    On the vaccinations, we're vaccinating those least likely to respond with a (For 12 weeks) diluted form compared to trial. The efficacy therefore will I think tend to be at the lower end compared to trial
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    tlg86 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Omnium said:

    Alistair said:

    Omnium said:

    eek said:
    Not true, but if you like not true things then great.

    Fairly easy to see why.
    Why?
    Well, actually I was just about to post an edit to say that the "If they voted like the majority of their age group" is actually fair enough.

    But suppose you vote randomly and the elections have been 50/50 then it's unlikely that as a 33 year old you'd have managed to not be with the winning side. It's even more unlikely that a 66 year old would have managed to avoid disappointment.

    So it's clear that the claim is questionable. Now consider correlations - this raises the chance that a voter might have been on the winning side hugely if they've always voted one way and that side has always won. Now we know that voters pretty much vote one way, but we certainly know that one side hasn't always won.

    So I suspect you will find a lot of 33 year olds that have never voted for the winning side (my guess would be around 40% - just because the Tories have won every election since 2010), but you'll find it quite hard to find 66 year olds that have always been celebrating on election night - I'd be a seller at 5%.
    I think the point is that the cohort overall has been shafted by democracy, not whether any given individual's record exactly matches that of the cohort.
    Of course, this is quite selective. The same is not true for 34-42 year olds.

    I’m 34 and have voted in five GEs and two UK-wide referendums. My record is:

    2005 - Lost
    2010 - Won
    2011 - Won
    2015 - Lost
    2016 - Won
    2017 - Lost
    2019 - Won

    Obviously you can argue that I did win in 2015, but it wasn’t just about Europe it was about Osbrown economics.

    Personally I don’t think my generation and the next one have been shafted by democracy. We’ve been shafted by Gordon Brown, George Osborne and the Bank of England.
    What is it the BOE are supposed to have done?
    The obvious ones would be not regulating mortgage lending (especially BTL) so house prices are sky high
    And the impact of low interest rates since 2010 on the same thing.

    As we are talking about people who are 33 years old this is probably a useful statistic from https://www.money.co.uk/guides/first-time-buyers-around-the-world

    Since 2007 the age of the average first time buyer in the UK has increased from 28 years old to 34 years old.

    Back in 2007 your typical 33 year old would have now owned a house for 5 years, now he's still a year away from buying one.

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    And that’s the reason why although the EU isn’t likely to break up, it’s also never likely to be really popular.

    https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1352162681810268160
    It's far easier to ban us, than have us all swanning around the EU this summer showing off our vaccination certificates.

    "What are those???", incredulous EU residents would be asking. That would never do. No, not at all....
    There I was planning where to go on a very nice holiday this summer - ok USA or Canada it is then
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    While the adults are back in charge in America, we still have a petulant toddler in Downing Street...

    https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1352156166466498560

    Two petulant toddlers, surely?

    Although actually, Johnson is (for once) right about this. The EU isn’t a country and it shouldn’t be exchanging diplomats. As for their claims that the UK is a signatory to the Lisbon Treaty, in case they haven’t noticed, we’ve left and are no longer a signatory.

    Moreover, the Lisbon Treaty was signed over the strenuous objections of the party currently in power, partly because of this idea that the EU should have its own foreign service, and we all know no parliament can bind its successors.

    It’s the EU that are behaving like petulant toddlers here, and are in any case wrong about their status. They’re showing themselves at their pompous, stuck up, unselfaware and stupid worst, as over, say, that illegal ban on our beef.

    And that’s the reason why although the EU isn’t likely to break up, it’s also never likely to be really popular.
    The fact that every other country in the entire world does differently ought to be a clue. At the least, our government knew that denying this status would create a storm, which presumably is the object.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    edited January 2021
    alex_ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Well, he is right. Nobody expected we would be closed because after the mass of fraud, corruption and incompetence at the DfE to deliberately conceal and falsify the true infection rates in order to keep schools open and themselves relevant that they would suddenly be forced to confront reality like this. I actually bet that regardless of the deaths it would cause, they would keep schools open - not to help children, but to save face.

    And truthfully, life would be pleasanter if we were not in this situation, but since it is at least partly the aforementioned fraud corruption and incompetence at the DfE that brought us to it - insofar as if they had looked at blended learning or closed schools a fortnight early in the worst hit areas, things would not have been as bad - it’s not worth giving them a good start for effort.
    They should have been making contingency plans for national home learning last summer. It's scary how in so many areas over the last few years we have discovered that contingency planning (or more accurately lack of it),across large and crucial areas of government, appears to have been driven by anticipation of the world as the Government would like it to be, and not by the world as it could be if things don't go as hoped. In fact the very scenarios that contingency planning is designed for.

    People should be asking serious questions about what else the Government hasn't currently got contingency plans for, but i fear that the answers would be too horrific to be made public.
    Do you want to know the worst bit?

    We were ordered to draw up contingency plans by local management over the summer in case of a second lockdown, and did. Then we were ordered to stop doing them by the DfE ‘because the virus isn’t spread through schools so they won’t be needed.’

    That also seems to be why they stopped rolling out laptops to poorer children.

    How do you spell ‘lowlifes?’

    Fortunately it did mean we had a basic outline plan ready to go, as we hadn’t destroyed our work. But really...
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