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On Betfair punters make it a 73% chance that not enough Republican Senators will back the impeachmen
On Betfair punters make it a 73% chance that not enough Republican Senators will back the impeachment move – politicalbetting.com
At the start of a momentous week in US politics the big question is whether the Senate is going to follow the the House of Representatives’ move last week and pass a resolution impeaching the outgoing president.
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People in England aged 70 and over, as well as those listed as clinically extremely vulnerable, will begin receiving offers of a coronavirus vaccine this week. It comes as 10 new mass vaccination hubs open across England."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55698132
Sure, he and a few others may be approaching their last terms, so might look a bit further ahead than others, and they could stop Trump running, but people are optimistic - they'll think he won't anyway.
Research by Leicester University and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) found that out of 47,780 people discharged from hospital in the first wave, 29.4 per cent returned to hospital within 140 days and 12.3 per cent died.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-9157893/Covid-UK-One-eight-recovered-Covid-patients-DIE-140-days.html
There is a delay between his exit and this thing making progress in the Senate. A lot can happen in that short time, though I will be surprised if any real street action happens in Washington.
'You start to feel stupid': Tech workers can't leave SF fast enough
https://www.sfgate.com/business/article/They-Can-t-Leave-the-Bay-Area-Fast-Enough-15876405.php
Surely Germany didn't extradite him?
Its quite common for BBC to adjust headlines, but each time they just don't seem to be able to say he was a convicted murderer.
That he has the ability has long been known.
That he has the temperament on the highest stage has just been confirmed.
The Senate will also then vote to prevent Trump from running for public office again, which will by that stage be far more significant
Also, if Obama hadn't tweaked Trump's tail at the White House Correspondent's Dinner.
But if almost anyone other than Clinton, H had been the Democratic nominee, then we would never have had Trump as President. (Indeed, it would probably be Paul Ryan taking over from Joe Biden right now.)
Yet in terms of being able to connect with the average voter as 2020 proved Biden was far better than Hillary and had he been the Democratic nominee in 2016 then yes Trump would likely never have won in the first place
The question then is what happens in 2024. If the GOP can get rid of their Trump issue and nominate someone with the populist instinct just not the complete narcissism, lack of ability, malcontentary (maybe its a word, maybe its not) and corruption of Trump, what then?
I went for Biden early, refused to buy the negatives claimed for him as I was convinced he was the one person in the field who could emphatically build the numbers. He's stable , known and a man of a fairly sunny disposition. i.e. the complete and total opposite of Trump.
Biden is not likely to run in 2024, however. The country I suspect wont be doing too bad but what about the party? Harris will have had 4 years of exposure to motivate or demotivate on both sides, the socialist left of the party will try again.
Whilst the likelihood is that the GOP will not have quite washed the stink off by then, there is no guarantee the Democrats will get anywhere near the mammoth vote in 2024 and it may not be the smooth sail that it perhaps should be for them in 2024.
If a lot of the returnees were in the >85 contingent, then their normal risk of dying is about 16% / year. After any major illness, probably a lot higher.
Still, another reason to put Covid in the DO NOT WANT category.
Crazy times. Can you imagine what a Friday night in this bar must be like -
https://futurism.com/the-byte/spacex-bar-restaurant-starship
A gang of PhDs in rocketry & some rough neck welders building a space ship. In the Texas wetlands....
The Washington Post has an article this weekend saying that law enforcement are now finding it a bit more difficult to monitor because of the loss of a valuable source of info and people knowledge. What has happened is that more of these people have moved to less visible mediums.
Intelligence (Of the academic kind) is vastly overrated.
Insane yes, a genius yes, at least musically and a convicted murderer yes and all that has to be taken into account but he was not Shipman or Bundy or Brady either
The evening BBC Radio 4 news even decided to play about 30 seconds of music as part of their headlines. Not only was this not suitable as a headline, it definitely skirted the issue.
His death should still be frontpage but obviously with details of his crime added too
The easily influenced, radicalisable, less careful, more hot headed sympathisers won't bother.
Just like ISIS and the Provos.
It was shear luck that he only killed one person. That we know of.
What was the line from "Speed" -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3m9fnVPpG1E
If Parler had built itself properly the authorities would have a lot bigger problem now.
Equally, however, you can count plenty of people number of people who do end up committing acts of violence who do come to the attention of authorities as a possible threat through their social media activity. Its often a highly used source, at least a supporting evidence source and in some cases the initiator for a deeper investigation into individuals. Watch how much open social media is used in prosecution cases in the US in particular and you will get an indication
Greater infiltration of hard core networks is just as much about getting someone on fringes into the hard core groups as trying to turn a person already well established within that hard core. Again you only have go back to what happened in NI to see that, countless informants went through that route.
This has only be done once since Reconstruction, to unseat Victor Berger, a Socialist representative after WW1, but SCOTUS subsequently threw out the conviction that was the basis of the disqualification and Berger won his seat back at the next election.
https://twitter.com/apimientaDC/status/1350941964166946821
“ The big attraction to the Republicans of this happening is that Trump would never be able to stand again.‘.
You keep publishing this in headers Mike, but are you sure of it?
In terms of precedent it’s pretty much uncharted territory.
In terms of wording it only removes a sitting president, not bars them from standing again. Dems are saying they need an additional vote wording that,
Any supplementary vote could be over turned by future votes.
The Supreme Court may rule they have the ultimately say on what is and isn’t legal about debarring, on the basis the fairest thing is to let someone legislators blocked to actually stand, because being elected by the people would trump the legislators opinion.
I’m not saying you are wrong, only it can only be said with these caveats
“Judgment in Cases of Impeachment shall not extend further than to removal from Office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any Office of honor, Trust or Profit under the United States: but the Party convicted shall nevertheless be liable and subject to Indictment, Trial, Judgment and Punishment, according to Law.”
I think I’m correct in saying that the “and” before “disqualification” is interpreted as making disqualification an optional extra to removal from office, not mandatory. I think it has been the usual practice in successful impeachments though, mostly of corrupt federal judges.
I am., however, of the view that impeachment conviction is a waste of time even it is going to succeed. I think its signalling, will only give him more victim status and will help towards a certain level of support sticking with the shyster.
More importantly I think there are many other ways Trump can and most likely will be ruined. Mainly criminally but also on character.
I am aware that much of the voter base that went for him in 2016 & 2020 had baked in an allowance for his character and some of those voters may not actually want Trump living next door. There are things about the man, however, that are not truly clear to the masses and there are a lot of people he has pissed off. No longer President, he is more vulnerable, he cant trumpet policies to keep some of that support onside, he cant do anything practical so its going to be negative after negative if the wagon gets rolling.
It isn't as if Specter did anything totally novel, though. It was something old, but on tape. Worse, it was just a precursor to the loudness war and dynamic compression, which wasn't exactly a good thing.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=iajyvVaeFS4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bWLN7rIby9s
What a speech.
Marvellous to see Eric Heffer walking out. The GOP are a long, long, way from this vital and visceral moment.
We're cracking this virus through the most stupendous mass vaccination success.
I've been deeply critical of Johnson and I lean left of centre but I'm bloody impressed with the brilliance of our vaccine rollout.
Bravo.
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Pence is the key more than McConnell. I think it needs Pence to go after Trump to get the conviction, and if he does McConnell will pile on and get the votes. If Pence is silent, McConnell is probably just short.
AnneJGP starts here ...
I wonder whether those brought to court after the Capitol assault will be using the line that 'the President wanted us to do it'. If so, would that add to Mr Trump's legal problems.
Good morning, everyone.
I'm a young home owner in the Red Wall and would likely have to pay less than £400 a year!
As a side effect I reckon it would compress house prices, making cheaper houses slightly more desirable and expensive ones less so.
However, I don't think the GOP will need to confront any of that stuff exactly. They'll say, "impeaching an ex-president is unconstitutional, and it's time to move on". Acquitting on that basis feels like the path of least resistance for an incumbent torn between the two wings of their party.
I know there's also the argument that they should impeach to get him out of their hair and stop him running again, but that has a "who will bell the cat" problem, unless the Dems can arrange for a secret ballot.
Let local authorities decide how much they want to charge, and let locally-elected politicians be held accountable for both the raising of the money and the spending of it.
My ideal system is probably a cut of the 20% income tax rate to 17%, with central government grants to local authorities cut by a similar money amount, the local authorities being allowed to raise council tax and business rates as they wish. If more council tax bands are required by local authorities in areas of very high and low prices, then allow them to be added. Perhaps also reserve a proportion of employer NI contributions to local authorities, to incentivise them further to create jobs and allow building of commercial and residential property.
They could, after conviction, vote to bar him from standing for office in the future, but the guy will be 78 at the time of the next election (although Biden is older and will be 81). He’s unlikely to stand again, although he may well support someone else’s campaign.
I’m still of the opinion that they should let him disappear to wherever he wants to go. More than anything else he wants to be the centre of attention, leading the news every night as he has done for the past half a decade. Everyone simply ignoring him once he leaves office would be his worst nightmare.
He’ll want to leave office not only as the best President ever, but also the most pardoningest in US history!
While I have sympathy with Mr S's view that it would be highly desirable to let Trump fade into obscurity, there is, unfortunately for him, the matter of those whom he urged to take violent action. Why should they be jailed when the man who, from a position of power and influence encouraged them, retires to the beach and an endless supply of Big Macs?
The MAGA Army will have plenty of grievances that can be stoked after 4 years of Biden and/or Harris.
I know some people won't like it but there are always winners and loses and for a lot of people this Change would be a win.
Was Glitter blacklisted in the USA? (Surely they don't do that as much, no having a maiden Auntie running the network.)
Pc not a problem - it was how edonkey and Co worked 25 years ago but mobiles have far greater restrictions on how they connect to the outside world
I guess it's up to the new President and what he wants from his first hundred days - does he want it to be dominated by his appointments, policies and vision, or by the raw politics of trying to see his predecessor barred from further office?
Maybe a third way is for the Senate to postpone Trump's impeachment for a year - they might then choose to drop it *if* he behaves himself out of office, and doesn't let the start of Biden's term be overshadowed.