politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My New Year wish: Some interesting by-elections in NON LAB

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My New Year wish: Some interesting by-elections in NON LAB seats

In March PB will be celebrating its tenth anniversary and in looking back over the decade it’s worth reflecting how important Westminster by-elections have been to the site’s development and growth.

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

I think by-elections in Surbiton, Hampstead & Kilburn and Sutton Coldfield would be fascinating.

TheScreamingEagles

@Scrapheap, I told you, never doubt me.

Also winning on He's quick, he's slick, he's named after a porno flick, scoring first.

foxinsoxuk

Portsmouth?

Would be interesting to see if Eastleigh could be repeated for both LDs and UKIP.

MikeSmithson

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think by-elections in Surbiton, Hampstead & Kilburn and Sutton Coldfield would be fascinating.

Who would Dan Hodges support in Hampstead? But we all wish that his mother remains in good health.

MikeSmithson

foxinsoxuk said:

Portsmouth?

Would be interesting to see if Eastleigh could be repeated for both LDs and UKIP.

The LDs in Portsmouh South have a stronger orgsnisation than Eastleigh and, indeed, played a big part in that LD defence.

FluffyThoughts

The Bible is an allegory: No-one seriously believes the world is just over 5000-year old. This "post thread" epitomises the wishes of the "challenged" (wherein they mark a dot and voila)....

TheScreamingEagles

MikeSmithson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think by-elections in Surbiton, Hampstead & Kilburn and Sutton Coldfield would be fascinating.

Who would Dan Hodges support in Hampstead? But we all wish that his mother remains in good health.

Well, given recent trends, Dan Hodges could be the Labour candidate in Hampstead and Kilburn.

I was thinking, Glenda gets a great movie offer, she decides to resign her seat, and we have a by-election.

She's a very good actress.

Scott_P

@steve1anderson: Breaking: Thousands of Romanians and Bulgarians "tempted to fly to Luton to meet Keith Vaz MP" - Reuters

anotherDave

MikeSmithson said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Portsmouth?

Would be interesting to see if Eastleigh could be repeated for both LDs and UKIP.

The LDs in Portsmouh South have a stronger orgsnisation than Eastleigh and, indeed, played a big part in that LD defence.

?
At the time of the by-election, every elected councillor was a LD.

http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/8849651/at-war-in-eastleigh/

anotherDave

Is anything happening with Mr Evans & Ribble Valley?

isam

Without saying there will be x amount of Romanians, Bulgarians etc, does anyone lose think very small percentage of those who do come will do so by air?

TheScreamingEagles

anotherDave said:

Is anything happening with Mr Evans & Ribble Valley?

There's a trial date of the 10th of March.

TheScreamingEagles

Being a Muslim, obviously this doesn't apply to me

What your favorite drink says about your politics, in one chart

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/wp/2013/12/31/what-your-favorite-drink-says-about-your-politics-in-one-chart/

Scrapheap_as_was

2015 - Labour Maj nailed on
19:15 Man U late winner nailed on

FluffyThoughts

TheScreamingEagles said:

Being a Muslim, obviously this doesn't apply to me

What your favorite drink says about your politics, in one chart

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/wp/2013/12/31/what-your-favorite-drink-says-about-your-politics-in-one-chart/

Poor Wodger: His 'Moet & Chandon' rating is so far from his 'Smoking Loon' reality. Where is the lickle dahling...?

Pulpstar

isam said:

Without saying there will be x amount of Romanians, Bulgarians etc, does anyone lose think very small percentage of those who do come will do so by air?

Well its a bloody long drive

Stuart_Dickson

It'd be nice if PB even deigned to mention the Cowdenbeath by-election. Not long now til Polling Day.

Pulpstar

Stuart_Dickson said:

It'd be nice if PB even deigned to mention the Cowdenbeath by-election. Not long now til Polling Day.

No odds up anywhere - Shd be a good test of fortunes for SLAB/SNP.

MikeSmithson

If a sitting MP is chosen as next UK EU commissioner later in the year then that would trigger a by-election. It has been said that Andrew Mitchell might be in wih a chance which would mean a contest in Sutton Coldfield.

TheScreamingEagles

MikeSmithson said:

If a sitting MP is chosen as next UK EU commissioner later in the year then that would trigger a by-election. It has been said that Andrew Mitchell might be in wih a chance which would mean a contest in Sutton Coldfield.

One of the reasons Sutton Coldfield would be good, is that in 2010 UKIP polled 3.1% there, which is roughly what they polled nationwide.

Would Clegg take the job if offered?

FluffyThoughts

:Without-comment:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/defence/10545808/India-terminates-AgustaWestland-helicopter-deal.html

Carnyx

FluffyThoughts said:

The Bible is an allegory: No-one seriously believes the world is just over 5000-year old. This "post thread" epitomises the wishes of the "challenged" (wherein they mark a dot and voila)....

As any fule kno, the Biblical exegetists didn't either - they reckoned that the Earth is 6018 years old (on one count) ... http://sp.lyellcollection.org/content/190/1/1.full.pdf+html?sid=616d03de-51d2-4210-9950-9405ff3050a8

Scrapheap_as_was

OSR

I'm going for a long lie down.

TheScreamingEagles

See, Scrapheap - 2 nil

Edit: Balls 2-1 now.

Bond_James_Bond

O/T

When we were discussing Lithuanian fire extinguishers yesterday, a number of posters took the time to make lengthy replies to a post of mine in that thread, to which I didn't reply.

Lest I be thought rude: about 5 minutes after my last post in that thread, my mother phoned me to tell me my father had died. He was 84 and the kindest man I have ever met.

So I am afraid I have been preoccupied, but thanks to those who troubled to reply. I will be back later in 2014 to argue matters out properly with all you misguided PB lefties.

Bye for now.

BJB

dr_spyn

@bond_James_bond I'm sorry to read of your bad news about your father. RIP.

No_Offence_Alan

Pulpstar said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

It'd be nice if PB even deigned to mention the Cowdenbeath by-election. Not long now til Polling Day.

No odds up anywhere - Shd be a good test of fortunes for SLAB/SNP.

Nah, should be a walk-over for SLAB.

dr_spyn

I was wondering if Paul Goggins might step down before 2014 is out.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-25563342

Morris_Dancer

My condolences on your loss, Mr. Bond.

TOPPING

Bond_James_Bond said:

O/T

When we were discussing Lithuanian fire extinguishers yesterday, a number of posters took the time to make lengthy replies to a post of mine in that thread, to which I didn't reply.

Lest I be thought rude: about 5 minutes after my last post in that thread, my mother phoned me to tell me my father had died. He was 84 and the kindest man I have ever met.

So I am afraid I have been preoccupied, but thanks to those who troubled to reply. I will be back later in 2014 to argue matters out properly with all you misguided PB lefties.

Bye for now.

BJB

Very sorry to hear that @Bond_James_Bond. I have had that phonecall.

I hope your next few months pass with much love and support.

TheScreamingEagles

My condolences Mr Bond.

anotherDave

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeSmithson said:

If a sitting MP is chosen as next UK EU commissioner later in the year then that would trigger a by-election. It has been said that Andrew Mitchell might be in wih a chance which would mean a contest in Sutton Coldfield.

One of the reasons Sutton Coldfield would be good, is that in 2010 UKIP polled 3.1% there, which is roughly what they polled nationwide.

If Sutton Coldfield isn't a safe Conservative seat, they'll be looking a Canadian Conservatives style wipeout in 2015.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/suttoncoldfield/

TheScreamingEagles

::Buffs nails::

Part one of my big win on Tottenham this week.

I'm reinvesting my profits on West Ham getting relegated.

Plus Spurs only 2points from a Champs League Place.

Another potential winner.

And yes, Scrapheap, I accept your apology.

Scrapheap_as_was

GET THE FECK IN!!

TSE = POTY 2014!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Scrapheap_as_was

Crikey - condolences to BJB, puts little ball games in context.

Pulpstar

Backed Spurs in play for the last 10 minutes - was nervous times !

Not sure which race she will go in yet, but I think Annie Power could be a great bet at Cheltenham.

TheScreamingEagles

7/2 on Spurs winning on Saturday.

https://www.skybet.com/football/fa-cup/event/16042996?bsnls=1&bsopen=1&aff_id=9299

GeoffM

My condolences, Mr Bond.

Scrapheap_as_was

TheScreamingEagles said:

7/2 on Spurs winning on Saturday.

https://www.skybet.com/football/fa-cup/event/16042996?
bsnls=1&bsopen=1&aff_id=9299

4-1 available for Spurs win today in many places once Rooney was named in the MU team...

Arsenal to win the FA Cup... you heard it hear first.

TheScreamingEagles

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

7/2 on Spurs winning on Saturday.

https://www.skybet.com/football/fa-cup/event/16042996?
bsnls=1&bsopen=1&aff_id=9299

4-1 available for Spurs win today in many places once Rooney was named in the MU team...

Arsenal to win the FA Cup... you heard it hear first.

So long as no one says Spurs are on the up for the rest of the season, should be a good season for Spurs.

JohnLoony

The solution to the problem would be to have a rule that says that there should be by-elections in the most marginal constituencies held by the party which has the plurality of seats.

The number of such by-elections should be determined by the difference in seats between the largest party and the second party, and the frequency of by-elections determined by the marginality of the seat at the previous election.

So the most marginal constituency (in the case of 2010, it would be Warwickshire North, which had a Conservative majority of 54) would have a by-election about a month after the general election. If the by-election again makes it a close result, another by-election would follow soon thereafter. If the by-election creates a big majority, it would be safe until the next GE.

isam

Bond_James_Bond said:

O/T

When we were discussing Lithuanian fire extinguishers yesterday, a number of posters took the time to make lengthy replies to a post of mine in that thread, to which I didn't reply.

Lest I be thought rude: about 5 minutes after my last post in that thread, my mother phoned me to tell me my father had died. He was 84 and the kindest man I have ever met.

So I am afraid I have been preoccupied, but thanks to those who troubled to reply. I will be back later in 2014 to argue matters out properly with all you misguided PB lefties.

Bye for now.

BJB

Oh dear so sorry

Scrapheap_as_was

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

7/2 on Spurs winning on Saturday.

https://www.skybet.com/football/fa-cup/event/16042996?
bsnls=1&bsopen=1&aff_id=9299

4-1 available for Spurs win today in many places once Rooney was named in the MU team...

Arsenal to win the FA Cup... you heard it hear first.

So long as no one says Spurs are on the up for the rest of the season, should be a good season for Spurs.

Shush.... don't mention him....

I'd hoped the 'big' squad of ours would show through over the frantic Xmas period and despite us having a massive number out, plus barndoor now too, it's just about done it.

Capoue coming in today was the only real option with so many of our midfielders crocked but actually was a good one.... Lamela needs to play against Arsenal now with Soldado.

TheScreamingEagles

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

7/2 on Spurs winning on Saturday.

https://www.skybet.com/football/fa-cup/event/16042996?
bsnls=1&bsopen=1&aff_id=9299

4-1 available for Spurs win today in many places once Rooney was named in the MU team...

Arsenal to win the FA Cup... you heard it hear first.

So long as no one says Spurs are on the up for the rest of the season, should be a good season for Spurs.

Shush.... don't mention him....

I'd hoped the 'big' squad of ours would show through over the frantic Xmas period and despite us having a massive number out, plus barndoor now too, it's just about done it.

Capoue coming in today was the only real option with so many of our midfielders crocked but actually was a good one.... Lamela needs to play against Arsenal now with Soldado.

Remember, the last time AVB was sacked, his team went onto win the Champions League in the same season.

Tim Sherwood is the new Roberto Di Matteo.

Spurs to win the Premier League 66/1

Just saying.

Richard_Tyndall

Bond_James_Bond said:

O/T

When we were discussing Lithuanian fire extinguishers yesterday, a number of posters took the time to make lengthy replies to a post of mine in that thread, to which I didn't reply.

Lest I be thought rude: about 5 minutes after my last post in that thread, my mother phoned me to tell me my father had died. He was 84 and the kindest man I have ever met.

So I am afraid I have been preoccupied, but thanks to those who troubled to reply. I will be back later in 2014 to argue matters out properly with all you misguided PB lefties.

Bye for now.

BJB

Truly sorry to hear that BJB. Best wishes to you and your family. Looking forward to seeing you back later in the year and hope all goes as well as it can over the next few months for you.

foxinsoxuk

better still, I would like 1/5 of the seats to have an election each year. The Chartists wanted annual parliaments, but I think this a reasonable compromise.

It would get away from the issue of pre election giveaway budgets, either that or we would get them each year.

JohnLoony said:

The solution to the problem would be to have a rule that says that there should be by-elections in the most marginal constituencies held by the party which has the plurality of seats.

The number of such by-elections should be determined by the difference in seats between the largest party and the second party, and the frequency of by-elections determined by the marginality of the seat at the previous election.

So the most marginal constituency (in the case of 2010, it would be Warwickshire North, which had a Conservative majority of 54) would have a by-election about a month after the general election. If the by-election again makes it a close result, another by-election would follow soon thereafter. If the by-election creates a big majority, it would be safe until the next GE.

JosiasJessop

Condolences, Mr Bond.

Charles

Bond_James_Bond said:

O/T

When we were discussing Lithuanian fire extinguishers yesterday, a number of posters took the time to make lengthy replies to a post of mine in that thread, to which I didn't reply.

Lest I be thought rude: about 5 minutes after my last post in that thread, my mother phoned me to tell me my father had died. He was 84 and the kindest man I have ever met.

So I am afraid I have been preoccupied, but thanks to those who troubled to reply. I will be back later in 2014 to argue matters out properly with all you misguided PB lefties.

Bye for now.

BJB

I am sorry to hear that BJB. Hope all that needs to be done gets done.

JosiasJessop

That's an interesting chart - for one reason, I had no ideas that there had been so many by-elections in that period. Although thinking about it, it is only three or so a year on average.

It would also be interesting to see a chart of the reasons for the by-elections. There would be a hefty percentage of deaths, but also some forced (e.g. criminal conviction), ill-health, and some who resigned their seats (David Miliband / Louise Mensch).

another_richard

Richard_Tyndall said:

Bond_James_Bond said:

O/T

When we were discussing Lithuanian fire extinguishers yesterday, a number of posters took the time to make lengthy replies to a post of mine in that thread, to which I didn't reply.

Lest I be thought rude: about 5 minutes after my last post in that thread, my mother phoned me to tell me my father had died. He was 84 and the kindest man I have ever met.

So I am afraid I have been preoccupied, but thanks to those who troubled to reply. I will be back later in 2014 to argue matters out properly with all you misguided PB lefties.

Bye for now.

BJB

Truly sorry to hear that BJB. Best wishes to you and your family. Looking forward to seeing you back later in the year and hope all goes as well as it can over the next few months for you.

Same thoughts from me as well.

AveryLP

JosiasJessop said:

There would be a hefty percentage of deaths, but also some forced (e.g. criminal conviction), ill-health, and some who resigned their seats (David Miliband / Louise Mensch).

The shame of decamping to New York "for family reasons" and a better paid job.

As the late departed tim might have said: Me Me Miliband

NickPalmer

Really sorry to hear that, BJB - it's kind of you to let us know, and we'll look forward to welcoming you back (for about 5 minutes after which we'll start arguing with you again, of course). All the best.

anotherDave

foxinsoxuk said:

better still, I would like 1/5 of the seats to have an election each year. The Chartists wanted annual parliaments, but I think this a reasonable compromise.

It would get away from the issue of pre election giveaway budgets, either that or we would get them each year.

JohnLoony said:

The solution to the problem would be to have a rule that says that there should be by-elections in the most marginal constituencies held by the party which has the plurality of seats.

The number of such by-elections should be determined by the difference in seats between the largest party and the second party, and the frequency of by-elections determined by the marginality of the seat at the previous election.

So the most marginal constituency (in the case of 2010, it would be Warwickshire North, which had a Conservative majority of 54) would have a by-election about a month after the general election. If the by-election again makes it a close result, another by-election would follow soon thereafter. If the by-election creates a big majority, it would be safe until the next GE.

I quite like the US system, where the House of Representatives, Senate, and the Presidency all have different length terms of office.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_the_United_States#Federal_elections

Cyclefree

Bond_James_Bond said:

O/T

When we were discussing Lithuanian fire extinguishers yesterday, a number of posters took the time to make lengthy replies to a post of mine in that thread, to which I didn't reply.

Lest I be thought rude: about 5 minutes after my last post in that thread, my mother phoned me to tell me my father had died. He was 84 and the kindest man I have ever met.

So I am afraid I have been preoccupied, but thanks to those who troubled to reply. I will be back later in 2014 to argue matters out properly with all you misguided PB lefties.

Bye for now.

BJB

My condolences Mr Bond. I hope you and your mother find the love and support you need at this time.

MikeK

NickPalmer said:

Really sorry to hear that, BJB - it's kind of you to let us know, and we'll look forward to welcoming you back (for about 5 minutes after which we'll start arguing with you again, of course). All the best.

I'll add my condolence and commiseration, BJB. That this happened in the festive season is all the more reason for sadness. Come back soon as you can, we need more right wingers on PB.

FrankBooth

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeSmithson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think by-elections in Surbiton, Hampstead & Kilburn and Sutton Coldfield would be fascinating.

Who would Dan Hodges support in Hampstead? But we all wish that his mother remains in good health.

Well, given recent trends, Dan Hodges could be the Labour candidate in Hampstead and Kilburn.

I was thinking, Glenda gets a great movie offer, she decides to resign her seat, and we have a by-election.

She's a very good actress.

Dan Hodges, the LABOUR candidate? He's left the party I believe because Ed refused to back military intervention in Syria. (I'm sure there's all sorts of reasons why people have left the Labour Party over the years, this one seemed amongst the more unusual). I presumed he would be standing as an independent in Doncaster? He he mop up all the anti-Miliband vote? If Farage is thinking of Sheffield Hallam, why doesn't Hodges take on Doncaster? I think peter Hitchens lives in Oxfordshire. I wonder if he's thought about standing in Witney?

HYUFD

Move over the resorts of the Alps and Rockies, North Korea has launched its first ski resort, with Kim Jong-Un promising visitors they would 'feel the loving care of the party'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/10544664/Kim-Jong-un-spends-New-Years-Eve-skiing-in-his-impeccable-resort.html

HYUFD

Condolonces on your loss BJB

notme

FrankBooth said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeSmithson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think by-elections in Surbiton, Hampstead & Kilburn and Sutton Coldfield would be fascinating.

Who would Dan Hodges support in Hampstead? But we all wish that his mother remains in good health.

Well, given recent trends, Dan Hodges could be the Labour candidate in Hampstead and Kilburn.

I was thinking, Glenda gets a great movie offer, she decides to resign her seat, and we have a by-election.

She's a very good actress.

Dan Hodges, the LABOUR candidate? He's left the party I believe because Ed refused to back military intervention in Syria. (I'm sure there's all sorts of reasons why people have left the Labour Party over the years, this one seemed amongst the more unusual). I presumed he would be standing as an independent in Doncaster? He he mop up all the anti-Miliband vote? If Farage is thinking of Sheffield Hallam, why doesn't Hodges take on Doncaster? I think peter Hitchens lives in Oxfordshire. I wonder if he's thought about standing in Witney?

I got the impression that Dan Hodges was more annoyed at the way that Milband played the PM on such an issue. Cameron had asked him what was needed to secure a united front from parliament. Miliband told him. Cameron incorporated Milibands requirements for support, organised a vote in parliament, along those lines, and then just before the vote the PM was told that he could no longer support the resolution.

To leave a PM hanging such a way was both grubby and dishonourable.

Pulpstar

Sorry about your loss, JBJ. Condolences.

Pulpstar

When is the first poll of 2014 out ^_^ ?

nigel4england

Pulpstar said:

When is the first poll of 2014 out ^_^ ?

Would piss myself if there's a crossover, compouter1 would have breakdown!

Wulfrun_Phil

FrankBooth said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeSmithson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think by-elections in Surbiton, Hampstead & Kilburn and Sutton Coldfield would be fascinating.

Who would Dan Hodges support in Hampstead? But we all wish that his mother remains in good health.

Well, given recent trends, Dan Hodges could be the Labour candidate in Hampstead and Kilburn.

I was thinking, Glenda gets a great movie offer, she decides to resign her seat, and we have a by-election.

She's a very good actress.

Dan Hodges, the LABOUR candidate? He's left the party I believe because Ed refused to back military intervention in Syria. (I'm sure there's all sorts of reasons why people have left the Labour Party over the years, this one seemed amongst the more unusual). I presumed he would be standing as an independent in Doncaster? He he mop up all the anti-Miliband vote? If Farage is thinking of Sheffield Hallam, why doesn't Hodges take on Doncaster? I think peter Hitchens lives in Oxfordshire. I wonder if he's thought about standing in Witney?

Hodges writes for the Telegraph, and confines his (political) comments to attacking Labour and particularly Miliband. He's a Conservative in all but name, and I expect him to declare for them by 2015. A betting market on that outcome would be interesting.

NickPalmer

nigel4england said:

Pulpstar said:

When is the first poll of 2014 out ^_^ ?

Would piss myself if there's a crossover, compouter1 would have breakdown!

You're expecting UKIP to take the lead, eh? I suspect you may have to wait till the Sunday papers - there are no YouGovs Fridays and a poll on Thursday would need to have been started today.

Shall we idle away the days by guessing? My guess is a Labour lead in the 4-5 range - people have been preoccupied with other things and unless they've been flooded or power-cut are feeling reasonably mellow. UKIP will probably do OK on the back of the "Bulgarians are coming" stuff. Say 37/32/14/8.

HYUFD

Sad News, Uncle Phil from the 'Fresh Prince of Bel Air' has died http://omg.yahoo.com/news/james-avery-dead-65-fresh-prince-bel-air-190000424-us-weekly.html

nigel4england

NickPalmer said:

nigel4england said:

Pulpstar said:

When is the first poll of 2014 out ^_^ ?

Would piss myself if there's a crossover, compouter1 would have breakdown!

You're expecting UKIP to take the lead, eh? I suspect you may have to wait till the Sunday papers - there are no YouGovs Fridays and a poll on Thursday would need to have been started today.

Shall we idle away the days by guessing? My guess is a Labour lead in the 4-5 range - people have been preoccupied with other things and unless they've been flooded or power-cut are feeling reasonably mellow. UKIP will probably do OK on the back of the "Bulgarians are coming" stuff. Say 37/32/14/8.

I wish!

I agree with you Labour will still be at least 5% ahead, very interesting year ahead.

surbiton

There are fewer by-elections because MPs like the rest of us die later. Number of retired peopel are going up. We need soem immigrants of working age... from various places so that there is a balance !

bigjohnowls

I see Labour claim we were overcharged by £4bn on our energy bills by big 6 paying inflated prices to themselves.

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

When is the first poll of 2014 out ^_^ ?

Monday night/Tuesday morning - The YouGov for the Sun.

TheScreamingEagles

Tonight's Sherlock was the finest bit of TV since, well the last episode of Sherlock.

Tim_B

He's a Conservative in all but name, and I expect him to declare for them by 2015.

Does that make him a LINO - Labour in name only? :-)

surbiton

bigjohnowls said:

I see Labour claim we were overcharged by £4bn on our energy bills by big 6 paying inflated prices to themselves.

A "one-off" tax bill coming up. Extremely popular it will be too !

surbiton

Tim_B said:

He's a Conservative in all but name, and I expect him to declare for them by 2015.

Does that make him a LINO - Labour in name only? :-)

He is not Labour in any way. Even when he wa sin the Labour Party, he was a Blairite which is not quite Labour.

surbiton

isam said:

Without saying there will be x amount of Romanians, Bulgarians etc, does anyone lose think very small percentage of those who do come will do so by air?

I have not read any reports as to how many Britons will go to Romania !

TheScreamingEagles

surbiton said:

Tim_B said:

He's a Conservative in all but name, and I expect him to declare for them by 2015.

Does that make him a LINO - Labour in name only? :-)

He is not Labour in any way. Even when he wa sin the Labour Party, he was a Blairite which is not quite Labour.

So that's your way of saying no quite Labour leader has won a working majority in 47 years and counting?

MikeSmithson

Tim_B said:

He's a Conservative in all but name, and I expect him to declare for them by 2015.

Does that make him a LINO - Labour in name only? :-)

Methinks that Hodges is well beyond the pale for Labour. He's the guy, it will be recalled, who in Sept 2010 was so confident that David Miliband had won leadership that he posted a piece declaring that that is what has happened.

http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2010/09/21/david-miliband-has-won-says-dan-hodges/comment-page-1/#comment-5528

He's never forgiven Ed. My view at the time was that it was 50-50 which is what happened. http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/09/21/charlie-whelan-goes-large-on-edm/

JosiasJessop

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tonight's Sherlock was the finest bit of TV since, well the last episode of Sherlock.

TSE, I know that you are a man of rare intellect and irrepressible good humour, and I can only assume that you wrote your post with the latter attribute in mind.

Sherlock was cr@p. Really, really, cr@p. In fact it's been cr@p since the very first episode - although the pilot (which they scr@pped) was excellent. It was so cr@p that Mrs J left after an hour and did not come back for twenty minutes, preferring instead to argue with someone on a blog. (*) And she's a dirty girl who really fancies Benedict Cumberbatch. (1)

It utterly wasted good actors. It is yet another example of Jessop's first (and so far only) rule of Benedict Cumberbatch: anything that Benedict Cumberbatch appears in is cr@p, but he will be the best thing in it.

(*) It is a trait we share. One day we shall find ourselves anonymously arguing with each other on some blog ...

(1): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPpYDHQVp9c

TheScreamingEagles

@JosiasJessop.

That has to be worst troll in the history of PB.

FrankBooth

TheScreamingEagles said:

surbiton said:

Tim_B said:

He's a Conservative in all but name, and I expect him to declare for them by 2015.

Does that make him a LINO - Labour in name only? :-)

He is not Labour in any way. Even when he wa sin the Labour Party, he was a Blairite which is not quite Labour.

So that's your way of saying no quite Labour leader has won a working majority in 47 years and counting?

That is basically it. Of course Blair could have won without reaching to the centre-right, but firstly he wanted big majorities and secondly and perhaps most importantly, he just didn't believe in the Labour party in any way shape or form. I donthink history will judge the Blair era in the Labour party as a strange one. I mean what were people like Dan Hodges doing in the Labour Party?

JosiasJessop

TheScreamingEagles said:

@JosiasJessop.

That has to be worst troll in the history of PB.

I fear you might quote Mark 8:18 to me.

In all seriousness, it was terrible. Really really terrible.

TheScreamingEagles

JosiasJessop said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@JosiasJessop.

That has to be worst troll in the history of PB.

I fear you might quote Mark 8:18 to me.

In all seriousness, it was terrible. Really really terrible.

No, just no.

You're just annoyed that the plot featured the tube and not a proper train service.

surbiton

FrankBooth said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

surbiton said:

Tim_B said:

He's a Conservative in all but name, and I expect him to declare for them by 2015.

Does that make him a LINO - Labour in name only? :-)

He is not Labour in any way. Even when he wa sin the Labour Party, he was a Blairite which is not quite Labour.

So that's your way of saying no quite Labour leader has won a working majority in 47 years and counting?

That is basically it. Of course Blair could have won without reaching to the centre-right, but firstly he wanted big majorities and secondly and perhaps most importantly, he just didn't believe in the Labour party in any way shape or form. I donthink history will judge the Blair era in the Labour party as a strange one. I mean what were people like Dan Hodges doing in the Labour Party?

Not only Hodges but I am getting worried about the utterences of Blunkett. Increasingly, he is sounding xenophobic !

surbiton

MikeSmithson said:

Tim_B said:

He's a Conservative in all but name, and I expect him to declare for them by 2015.

Does that make him a LINO - Labour in name only? :-)

Methinks that Hodges is well beyond the pale for Labour. He's the guy, it will be recalled, who in Sept 2010 was so confident that David Miliband had won leadership that he posted a piece declaring that that is what has happened.

http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2010/09/21/david-miliband-has-won-says-dan-hodges/comment-page-1/#comment-5528

He's never forgiven Ed. My view at the time was that it was 50-50 which is what happened. http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/09/21/charlie-whelan-goes-large-on-edm/

We think of journalists as siding with one side or other. We forget that some have other jobs lined up. When someone does not get that job......hell hath no fury..........

surbiton

FrankBooth said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

surbiton said:

Tim_B said:

He's a Conservative in all but name, and I expect him to declare for them by 2015.

Does that make him a LINO - Labour in name only? :-)

He is not Labour in any way. Even when he wa sin the Labour Party, he was a Blairite which is not quite Labour.

So that's your way of saying no quite Labour leader has won a working majority in 47 years and counting?

That is basically it. Of course Blair could have won without reaching to the centre-right, but firstly he wanted big majorities and secondly and perhaps most importantly, he just didn't believe in the Labour party in any way shape or form. I donthink history will judge the Blair era in the Labour party as a strange one. I mean what were people like Dan Hodges doing in the Labour Party?

I would count 1997 as definitely Labour. Great achievements were made. Minimum wage, for instance is something we should all be proud of. In fact, I remember some Blairite warning that this could price British business out of the market etc. Bullshit !

MikeSmithson

I've just finished watching an unbelievably good Thames TV series of from the 1970s called Danger USB. Brilliantly made and telling a story of WW2 that I've not heard about before - bomb disposal.

They really made great TV programmes in the late 70s

Don't buy the boxed set - you can get it for nothing on YouTube

Tim_B

MikeSmithson said:

I've just finished watching an unbelievably good Thames TV series of from the 1970s called Danger USB. Brilliantly made and telling a story of WW2

Don't buy the boxed set - you can get it for nothing on YouTube

I got the box set for about 4 pounds on one of amazon.co.uk sale days. It stars the guy from Brideshead. It's a great show.

AveryLP

Wulfrun_Phil said:

FrankBooth said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeSmithson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think by-elections in Surbiton, Hampstead & Kilburn and Sutton Coldfield would be fascinating.

Who would Dan Hodges support in Hampstead? But we all wish that his mother remains in good health.

Well, given recent trends, Dan Hodges could be the Labour candidate in Hampstead and Kilburn.

I was thinking, Glenda gets a great movie offer, she decides to resign her seat, and we have a by-election.

She's a very good actress.

Dan Hodges, the LABOUR candidate? He's left the party I believe because Ed refused to back military intervention in Syria. (I'm sure there's all sorts of reasons why people have left the Labour Party over the years, this one seemed amongst the more unusual). I presumed he would be standing as an independent in Doncaster? He he mop up all the anti-Miliband vote? If Farage is thinking of Sheffield Hallam, why doesn't Hodges take on Doncaster? I think peter Hitchens lives in Oxfordshire. I wonder if he's thought about standing in Witney?

Hodges writes for the Telegraph, and confines his (political) comments to attacking Labour and particularly Miliband. He's a Conservative in all but name, and I expect him to declare for them by 2015. A betting market on that outcome would be interesting.

Dan Hodges is not and will never be a Conservative.

His aspiration is for an electable Labour Party.

Hence his disappointment with, lack of faith in, and, criticism of Ed Miliband.

Carola

Maybe Labour seats are tougher. Less affluence, more misery. Far easier to deal with 'the council only trims my verge every other day' than 'get me out - the whole estate's addicted to heroin.'

God Sherlock was a mess. (Sorry TSE). And so many holes in the 'back from the dead' reveal. I had a less holey solution.

philiph

surbiton said:

FrankBooth said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

surbiton said:

Tim_B said:

He's a Conservative in all but name, and I expect him to declare for them by 2015.

Does that make him a LINO - Labour in name only? :-)

He is not Labour in any way. Even when he wa sin the Labour Party, he was a Blairite which is not quite Labour.

So that's your way of saying no quite Labour leader has won a working majority in 47 years and counting?

That is basically it. Of course Blair could have won without reaching to the centre-right, but firstly he wanted big majorities and secondly and perhaps most importantly, he just didn't believe in the Labour party in any way shape or form. I donthink history will judge the Blair era in the Labour party as a strange one. I mean what were people like Dan Hodges doing in the Labour Party?

I would count 1997 as definitely Labour. Great achievements were made. Minimum wage, for instance is something we should all be proud of. In fact, I remember some Blairite warning that this could price British business out of the market etc. Bullshit !

I still think the long term effect of the minimum wage will be negative to workers.

It provides a base for low paid and low medium paid jobs to be leveled down to. Those that will suffer are the employees that used to earn minimum wage plus 20 pc or so.

If you provide a minimum don't be shocked when it is used for leveling down.

FrankBooth

surbiton said:

FrankBooth said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

surbiton said:

Tim_B said:

He's a Conservative in all but name, and I expect him to declare for them by 2015.

Does that make him a LINO - Labour in name only? :-)

He is not Labour in any way. Even when he wa sin the Labour Party, he was a Blairite which is not quite Labour.

So that's your way of saying no quite Labour leader has won a working majority in 47 years and counting?

That is basically it. Of course Blair could have won without reaching to the centre-right, but firstly he wanted big majorities and secondly and perhaps most importantly, he just didn't believe in the Labour party in any way shape or form. I donthink history will judge the Blair era in the Labour party as a strange one. I mean what were people like Dan Hodges doing in the Labour Party?

I would count 1997 as definitely Labour. Great achievements were made. Minimum wage, for instance is something we should all be proud of. In fact, I remember some Blairite warning that this could price British business out of the market etc. Bullshit !

There was a lot of low hanging fruit available in '97. But the general ethos didn't last long. Right from the start it was uncritical support of big business, the city and the USA.

TheScreamingEagles

My final observation on tonight's Sherlock.

When Sherlock was doing his mind palace/word list on John fiancée, these are the prominent words

“Only Child. Disillusioned Lib Dem. Guardian. Bakes Own Bread.”

Carola

Condolences Mr B.

Tim_B

Folks might recall my distress at finding my Terry's Chocolate Orange was not made by Terry's, not made in Yorkshire, or even in the UK.

Thanks to someone here reassuring me that it still tastes the same, I decided to open it during the Capital One Bowl this afternoon - (one of 6 football games today: how much better can it get unless the Cowboys win the Super Bowl? - I was asked by a fan, and of course I'm not one) -and I can report that it does indeed still taste just as good.

An allegedly Yorkshire product made in Poland by an American company (Kraft). I'm sure lefties could use this as proof of global warming :-)

Carola

Tim_B said:

Folks might recall my distress at finding my Terry's Chocolate Orange was not made by Terry's, not made in Yorkshire, or even in the UK.

Thanks to someone here reassuring me that it still tastes the same, I decided to open it during the Capital One Bowl this afternoon - (one of 6 football games today: how much better can it get unless the Cowboys win the Super Bowl? - I was asked by a fan, and of course I'm not one) -and I can report that it does indeed still taste just as good.

An allegedly Yorkshire product made in Poland by an American company (Kraft). I'm sure lefties could use this as proof of global warming :-)

They also used to be massive. But that's a general chocolatey issue.

MikeK

For those of a financial bent, some news and data on the Bitcoin phenom.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2013/12/31/bitcoins-incredible-year/?utm_campaign=forbestwittersf&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

Inspite of reading the article, I'm still all at sea regarding whether it's a bluff, a double bluff, the Emperors New Clothes or the real thing.

AveryLP

Tim_B said:

Folks might recall my distress at finding my Terry's Chocolate Orange was not made by Terry's, not made in Yorkshire, or even in the UK.

Thanks to someone here reassuring me that it still tastes the same, I decided to open it during the Capital One Bowl this afternoon - (one of 6 football games today: how much better can it get unless the Cowboys win the Super Bowl? - I was asked by a fan, and of course I'm not one) -and I can report that it does indeed still taste just as good.

An allegedly Yorkshire product made in Poland by an American company (Kraft). I'm sure lefties could use this as proof of global warming :-)

It is proof of globularism, Tim.

Have you heard recently from your twin and fellow expatriate, 'chemical Tim'?

stjohn

BJB.

Very sorry to hear your sad news.

I don't know you but I have appreciated the support of PBers at times of personal sadness in the past.

Sorry for your loss.

compouter1

Hodges expected a job when David Miliband became leader of the Labour Party. Ed won and Hodges has never forgiven him for the money he has lost because of it. It then didn't take him long to leave the Labour Party.

He writes for a right wing paper and plays to it's readership. He doesn't actually need any insiders as all he has to say is "nameless" or "one that would like to remain nameless". This did lead to the humorous episode where a "Tory source" gave him his *Ahem* marginal poll info. When a number of people asked him or the Tory Party to confirm this information.....it went all quiet. The fact that no one would back this poll up was very highlighting. For one it showed that his sources are, how can I be polite, not all he makes out. Also, his friends in the Tory Party left him to hang out to dry.

Oh, and quite a few on here hang on his every word.

All very entertaining.

Wulfrun_Phil

AveryLP said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

FrankBooth said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeSmithson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think by-elections in Surbiton, Hampstead & Kilburn and Sutton Coldfield would be fascinating.

Who would Dan Hodges support in Hampstead? But we all wish that his mother remains in good health.

Well, given recent trends, Dan Hodges could be the Labour candidate in Hampstead and Kilburn.

I was thinking, Glenda gets a great movie offer, she decides to resign her seat, and we have a by-election.

She's a very good actress.

Dan Hodges, the LABOUR candidate? He's left the party I believe because Ed refused to back military intervention in Syria. (I'm sure there's all sorts of reasons why people have left the Labour Party over the years, this one seemed amongst the more unusual). I presumed he would be standing as an independent in Doncaster? He he mop up all the anti-Miliband vote? If Farage is thinking of Sheffield Hallam, why doesn't Hodges take on Doncaster? I think peter Hitchens lives in Oxfordshire. I wonder if he's thought about standing in Witney?

Hodges writes for the Telegraph, and confines his (political) comments to attacking Labour and particularly Miliband. He's a Conservative in all but name, and I expect him to declare for them by 2015. A betting market on that outcome would be interesting.

Dan Hodges is not and will never be a Conservative.

His aspiration is for an electable Labour Party.

Hence his disappointment with, lack of faith in, and, criticism of Ed Miliband.

He criticises Labour and its leader at every opportunity. He chooses to offer no criticism of Cameron or any of the other Conservatives in the Government. He takes regular advantage of a platform offered by a Conservative-supporting newspaper.

I could be describing Dan Hodges. Equally I could be describing George Osborne.

stjohn

On a different note.

One thing that I find gives me great hope and interest in the future is ......

An ANTEPOST BET!

:-)

My 2014 long term, ridiculously optimistic bet, which could make me "Rich as Creases", (pace Chris Huhne), is as follows: £12.50 each way patent with vcbet. £175 stake.

Aston Villa to win the FA Cup at 50/1. each way 1/2
Rory McIlroy to win the US Masters at 12/1 e.w. 1/2/3/4/5
Triolo Dalene to win the Grand National at 20/1 e.w. 1/2/3/4/5

The win part of the bets is worth £199,000.