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SystemSystem Posts: 12,634
edited January 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My New Year wish: Some interesting by-elections in NON LAB seats

In March PB will be celebrating its tenth anniversary and in looking back over the decade it’s worth reflecting how important Westminster by-elections have been to the site’s development and growth.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,325
    edited January 2014
    I think by-elections in Surbiton, Hampstead & Kilburn and Sutton Coldfield would be fascinating.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,325
    edited January 2014
    @Scrapheap, I told you, never doubt me.

    Also winning on He's quick, he's slick, he's named after a porno flick, scoring first.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Portsmouth?

    Would be interesting to see if Eastleigh could be repeated for both LDs and UKIP.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think by-elections in Surbiton, Hampstead & Kilburn and Sutton Coldfield would be fascinating.

    Who would Dan Hodges support in Hampstead? But we all wish that his mother remains in good health.

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Portsmouth?

    Would be interesting to see if Eastleigh could be repeated for both LDs and UKIP.

    The LDs in Portsmouh South have a stronger orgsnisation than Eastleigh and, indeed, played a big part in that LD defence.

  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    edited January 2014
    The Bible is an allegory: No-one seriously believes the world is just over 5000-year old. This "post thread" epitomises the wishes of the "challenged" (wherein they mark a dot and voila)....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,325
    MikeSmithson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think by-elections in Surbiton, Hampstead & Kilburn and Sutton Coldfield would be fascinating.

    Who would Dan Hodges support in Hampstead? But we all wish that his mother remains in good health.

    Well, given recent trends, Dan Hodges could be the Labour candidate in Hampstead and Kilburn.

    I was thinking, Glenda gets a great movie offer, she decides to resign her seat, and we have a by-election.

    She's a very good actress.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @steve1anderson: Breaking: Thousands of Romanians and Bulgarians "tempted to fly to Luton to meet Keith Vaz MP" - Reuters
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    MikeSmithson said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Portsmouth?

    Would be interesting to see if Eastleigh could be repeated for both LDs and UKIP.

    The LDs in Portsmouh South have a stronger orgsnisation than Eastleigh and, indeed, played a big part in that LD defence.

    ?
    At the time of the by-election, every elected councillor was a LD.

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/8849651/at-war-in-eastleigh/
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Is anything happening with Mr Evans & Ribble Valley?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,327
    Without saying there will be x amount of Romanians, Bulgarians etc, does anyone lose think very small percentage of those who do come will do so by air?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,325
    anotherDave said:

    Is anything happening with Mr Evans & Ribble Valley?

    There's a trial date of the 10th of March.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,325
    Being a Muslim, obviously this doesn't apply to me

    What your favorite drink says about your politics, in one chart

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/wp/2013/12/31/what-your-favorite-drink-says-about-your-politics-in-one-chart/
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    2015 - Labour Maj nailed on
    19:15 Man U late winner nailed on
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Being a Muslim, obviously this doesn't apply to me

    What your favorite drink says about your politics, in one chart

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/wp/2013/12/31/what-your-favorite-drink-says-about-your-politics-in-one-chart/

    Poor Wodger: His 'Moet & Chandon' rating is so far from his 'Smoking Loon' reality. Where is the lickle dahling...?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,983
    isam said:

    Without saying there will be x amount of Romanians, Bulgarians etc, does anyone lose think very small percentage of those who do come will do so by air?

    Well its a bloody long drive :D
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    It'd be nice if PB even deigned to mention the Cowdenbeath by-election. Not long now til Polling Day.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,983
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    It'd be nice if PB even deigned to mention the Cowdenbeath by-election. Not long now til Polling Day.

    No odds up anywhere - Shd be a good test of fortunes for SLAB/SNP.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    If a sitting MP is chosen as next UK EU commissioner later in the year then that would trigger a by-election. It has been said that Andrew Mitchell might be in wih a chance which would mean a contest in Sutton Coldfield.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,325
    MikeSmithson said:

    If a sitting MP is chosen as next UK EU commissioner later in the year then that would trigger a by-election. It has been said that Andrew Mitchell might be in wih a chance which would mean a contest in Sutton Coldfield.

    One of the reasons Sutton Coldfield would be good, is that in 2010 UKIP polled 3.1% there, which is roughly what they polled nationwide.

    Would Clegg take the job if offered?
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    :Without-comment:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/defence/10545808/India-terminates-AgustaWestland-helicopter-deal.html
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,941
    FluffyThoughts said:

    The Bible is an allegory: No-one seriously believes the world is just over 5000-year old. This "post thread" epitomises the wishes of the "challenged" (wherein they mark a dot and voila)....

    As any fule kno, the Biblical exegetists didn't either - they reckoned that the Earth is 6018 years old (on one count) ... http://sp.lyellcollection.org/content/190/1/1.full.pdf+html?sid=616d03de-51d2-4210-9950-9405ff3050a8
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    OSR

    I'm going for a long lie down.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,325
    edited January 2014
    See, Scrapheap - 2 nil

    Edit: Balls 2-1 now.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    O/T

    When we were discussing Lithuanian fire extinguishers yesterday, a number of posters took the time to make lengthy replies to a post of mine in that thread, to which I didn't reply.

    Lest I be thought rude: about 5 minutes after my last post in that thread, my mother phoned me to tell me my father had died. He was 84 and the kindest man I have ever met.

    So I am afraid I have been preoccupied, but thanks to those who troubled to reply. I will be back later in 2014 to argue matters out properly with all you misguided PB lefties.

    Bye for now.

    BJB
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,325
    @bond_James_bond I'm sorry to read of your bad news about your father. RIP.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,170
    Pulpstar said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    It'd be nice if PB even deigned to mention the Cowdenbeath by-election. Not long now til Polling Day.

    No odds up anywhere - Shd be a good test of fortunes for SLAB/SNP.
    Nah, should be a walk-over for SLAB.

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,325
    I was wondering if Paul Goggins might step down before 2014 is out.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-25563342
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,835
    My condolences on your loss, Mr. Bond.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,231
    Bond_James_Bond said:

    O/T

    When we were discussing Lithuanian fire extinguishers yesterday, a number of posters took the time to make lengthy replies to a post of mine in that thread, to which I didn't reply.

    Lest I be thought rude: about 5 minutes after my last post in that thread, my mother phoned me to tell me my father had died. He was 84 and the kindest man I have ever met.

    So I am afraid I have been preoccupied, but thanks to those who troubled to reply. I will be back later in 2014 to argue matters out properly with all you misguided PB lefties.

    Bye for now.

    BJB

    Very sorry to hear that @Bond_James_Bond. I have had that phonecall.

    I hope your next few months pass with much love and support.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,325
    My condolences Mr Bond.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    If a sitting MP is chosen as next UK EU commissioner later in the year then that would trigger a by-election. It has been said that Andrew Mitchell might be in wih a chance which would mean a contest in Sutton Coldfield.

    One of the reasons Sutton Coldfield would be good, is that in 2010 UKIP polled 3.1% there, which is roughly what they polled nationwide.
    If Sutton Coldfield isn't a safe Conservative seat, they'll be looking a Canadian Conservatives style wipeout in 2015.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/suttoncoldfield/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,325
    edited January 2014
    ::Buffs nails::

    Part one of my big win on Tottenham this week.

    I'm reinvesting my profits on West Ham getting relegated.

    Plus Spurs only 2points from a Champs League Place.

    Another potential winner.

    And yes, Scrapheap, I accept your apology.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    GET THE FECK IN!!

    TSE = POTY 2014!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Crikey - condolences to BJB, puts little ball games in context.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,983
    Backed Spurs in play for the last 10 minutes - was nervous times !

    Not sure which race she will go in yet, but I think Annie Power could be a great bet at Cheltenham.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,325
    7/2 on Spurs winning on Saturday.

    https://www.skybet.com/football/fa-cup/event/16042996?bsnls=1&bsopen=1&aff_id=9299
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    My condolences, Mr Bond.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited January 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    7/2 on Spurs winning on Saturday.

    https://www.skybet.com/football/fa-cup/event/16042996?
    bsnls=1&bsopen=1&aff_id=9299


    4-1 available for Spurs win today in many places once Rooney was named in the MU team...

    Arsenal to win the FA Cup... you heard it hear first.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,325
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    7/2 on Spurs winning on Saturday.

    https://www.skybet.com/football/fa-cup/event/16042996?
    bsnls=1&bsopen=1&aff_id=9299


    4-1 available for Spurs win today in many places once Rooney was named in the MU team...

    Arsenal to win the FA Cup... you heard it hear first.
    So long as no one says Spurs are on the up for the rest of the season, should be a good season for Spurs.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    The solution to the problem would be to have a rule that says that there should be by-elections in the most marginal constituencies held by the party which has the plurality of seats.

    The number of such by-elections should be determined by the difference in seats between the largest party and the second party, and the frequency of by-elections determined by the marginality of the seat at the previous election.

    So the most marginal constituency (in the case of 2010, it would be Warwickshire North, which had a Conservative majority of 54) would have a by-election about a month after the general election. If the by-election again makes it a close result, another by-election would follow soon thereafter. If the by-election creates a big majority, it would be safe until the next GE.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,327
    Bond_James_Bond said:

    O/T

    When we were discussing Lithuanian fire extinguishers yesterday, a number of posters took the time to make lengthy replies to a post of mine in that thread, to which I didn't reply.

    Lest I be thought rude: about 5 minutes after my last post in that thread, my mother phoned me to tell me my father had died. He was 84 and the kindest man I have ever met.

    So I am afraid I have been preoccupied, but thanks to those who troubled to reply. I will be back later in 2014 to argue matters out properly with all you misguided PB lefties.

    Bye for now.

    BJB


    Oh dear so sorry
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    7/2 on Spurs winning on Saturday.

    https://www.skybet.com/football/fa-cup/event/16042996?
    bsnls=1&bsopen=1&aff_id=9299


    4-1 available for Spurs win today in many places once Rooney was named in the MU team...

    Arsenal to win the FA Cup... you heard it hear first.
    So long as no one says Spurs are on the up for the rest of the season, should be a good season for Spurs.
    Shush.... don't mention him....

    I'd hoped the 'big' squad of ours would show through over the frantic Xmas period and despite us having a massive number out, plus barndoor now too, it's just about done it.

    Capoue coming in today was the only real option with so many of our midfielders crocked but actually was a good one.... Lamela needs to play against Arsenal now with Soldado.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,325
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    7/2 on Spurs winning on Saturday.

    https://www.skybet.com/football/fa-cup/event/16042996?
    bsnls=1&bsopen=1&aff_id=9299


    4-1 available for Spurs win today in many places once Rooney was named in the MU team...

    Arsenal to win the FA Cup... you heard it hear first.
    So long as no one says Spurs are on the up for the rest of the season, should be a good season for Spurs.
    Shush.... don't mention him....

    I'd hoped the 'big' squad of ours would show through over the frantic Xmas period and despite us having a massive number out, plus barndoor now too, it's just about done it.

    Capoue coming in today was the only real option with so many of our midfielders crocked but actually was a good one.... Lamela needs to play against Arsenal now with Soldado.
    Remember, the last time AVB was sacked, his team went onto win the Champions League in the same season.

    Tim Sherwood is the new Roberto Di Matteo.

    Spurs to win the Premier League 66/1

    Just saying.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,512
    Bond_James_Bond said:

    O/T

    When we were discussing Lithuanian fire extinguishers yesterday, a number of posters took the time to make lengthy replies to a post of mine in that thread, to which I didn't reply.

    Lest I be thought rude: about 5 minutes after my last post in that thread, my mother phoned me to tell me my father had died. He was 84 and the kindest man I have ever met.

    So I am afraid I have been preoccupied, but thanks to those who troubled to reply. I will be back later in 2014 to argue matters out properly with all you misguided PB lefties.

    Bye for now.

    BJB

    Truly sorry to hear that BJB. Best wishes to you and your family. Looking forward to seeing you back later in the year and hope all goes as well as it can over the next few months for you.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    better still, I would like 1/5 of the seats to have an election each year. The Chartists wanted annual parliaments, but I think this a reasonable compromise.

    It would get away from the issue of pre election giveaway budgets, either that or we would get them each year.
    JohnLoony said:

    The solution to the problem would be to have a rule that says that there should be by-elections in the most marginal constituencies held by the party which has the plurality of seats.

    The number of such by-elections should be determined by the difference in seats between the largest party and the second party, and the frequency of by-elections determined by the marginality of the seat at the previous election.

    So the most marginal constituency (in the case of 2010, it would be Warwickshire North, which had a Conservative majority of 54) would have a by-election about a month after the general election. If the by-election again makes it a close result, another by-election would follow soon thereafter. If the by-election creates a big majority, it would be safe until the next GE.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,581
    Condolences, Mr Bond.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Bond_James_Bond said:

    O/T

    When we were discussing Lithuanian fire extinguishers yesterday, a number of posters took the time to make lengthy replies to a post of mine in that thread, to which I didn't reply.

    Lest I be thought rude: about 5 minutes after my last post in that thread, my mother phoned me to tell me my father had died. He was 84 and the kindest man I have ever met.

    So I am afraid I have been preoccupied, but thanks to those who troubled to reply. I will be back later in 2014 to argue matters out properly with all you misguided PB lefties.

    Bye for now.

    BJB

    I am sorry to hear that BJB. Hope all that needs to be done gets done.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,581
    That's an interesting chart - for one reason, I had no ideas that there had been so many by-elections in that period. Although thinking about it, it is only three or so a year on average.

    It would also be interesting to see a chart of the reasons for the by-elections. There would be a hefty percentage of deaths, but also some forced (e.g. criminal conviction), ill-health, and some who resigned their seats (David Miliband / Louise Mensch).
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,131
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Bond_James_Bond said:

    O/T

    When we were discussing Lithuanian fire extinguishers yesterday, a number of posters took the time to make lengthy replies to a post of mine in that thread, to which I didn't reply.

    Lest I be thought rude: about 5 minutes after my last post in that thread, my mother phoned me to tell me my father had died. He was 84 and the kindest man I have ever met.

    So I am afraid I have been preoccupied, but thanks to those who troubled to reply. I will be back later in 2014 to argue matters out properly with all you misguided PB lefties.

    Bye for now.

    BJB

    Truly sorry to hear that BJB. Best wishes to you and your family. Looking forward to seeing you back later in the year and hope all goes as well as it can over the next few months for you.
    Same thoughts from me as well.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    JosiasJessop said:



    There would be a hefty percentage of deaths, but also some forced (e.g. criminal conviction), ill-health, and some who resigned their seats (David Miliband / Louise Mensch).

    The shame of decamping to New York "for family reasons" and a better paid job.

    As the late departed tim might have said: Me Me Miliband

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,755
    Really sorry to hear that, BJB - it's kind of you to let us know, and we'll look forward to welcoming you back (for about 5 minutes after which we'll start arguing with you again, of course). All the best.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    foxinsoxuk said:

    better still, I would like 1/5 of the seats to have an election each year. The Chartists wanted annual parliaments, but I think this a reasonable compromise.

    It would get away from the issue of pre election giveaway budgets, either that or we would get them each year.

    JohnLoony said:

    The solution to the problem would be to have a rule that says that there should be by-elections in the most marginal constituencies held by the party which has the plurality of seats.

    The number of such by-elections should be determined by the difference in seats between the largest party and the second party, and the frequency of by-elections determined by the marginality of the seat at the previous election.

    So the most marginal constituency (in the case of 2010, it would be Warwickshire North, which had a Conservative majority of 54) would have a by-election about a month after the general election. If the by-election again makes it a close result, another by-election would follow soon thereafter. If the by-election creates a big majority, it would be safe until the next GE.

    I quite like the US system, where the House of Representatives, Senate, and the Presidency all have different length terms of office.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_the_United_States#Federal_elections
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,718
    Bond_James_Bond said:

    O/T

    When we were discussing Lithuanian fire extinguishers yesterday, a number of posters took the time to make lengthy replies to a post of mine in that thread, to which I didn't reply.

    Lest I be thought rude: about 5 minutes after my last post in that thread, my mother phoned me to tell me my father had died. He was 84 and the kindest man I have ever met.

    So I am afraid I have been preoccupied, but thanks to those who troubled to reply. I will be back later in 2014 to argue matters out properly with all you misguided PB lefties.

    Bye for now.

    BJB

    My condolences Mr Bond. I hope you and your mother find the love and support you need at this time.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    NickPalmer said:

    Really sorry to hear that, BJB - it's kind of you to let us know, and we'll look forward to welcoming you back (for about 5 minutes after which we'll start arguing with you again, of course). All the best.

    I'll add my condolence and commiseration, BJB. That this happened in the festive season is all the more reason for sadness. Come back soon as you can, we need more right wingers on PB.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think by-elections in Surbiton, Hampstead & Kilburn and Sutton Coldfield would be fascinating.

    Who would Dan Hodges support in Hampstead? But we all wish that his mother remains in good health.

    Well, given recent trends, Dan Hodges could be the Labour candidate in Hampstead and Kilburn.

    I was thinking, Glenda gets a great movie offer, she decides to resign her seat, and we have a by-election.

    She's a very good actress.
    Dan Hodges, the LABOUR candidate? He's left the party I believe because Ed refused to back military intervention in Syria. (I'm sure there's all sorts of reasons why people have left the Labour Party over the years, this one seemed amongst the more unusual). I presumed he would be standing as an independent in Doncaster? He he mop up all the anti-Miliband vote? If Farage is thinking of Sheffield Hallam, why doesn't Hodges take on Doncaster? I think peter Hitchens lives in Oxfordshire. I wonder if he's thought about standing in Witney?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,602
    Move over the resorts of the Alps and Rockies, North Korea has launched its first ski resort, with Kim Jong-Un promising visitors they would 'feel the loving care of the party'
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/10544664/Kim-Jong-un-spends-New-Years-Eve-skiing-in-his-impeccable-resort.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,602
    Condolonces on your loss BJB
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    FrankBooth said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think by-elections in Surbiton, Hampstead & Kilburn and Sutton Coldfield would be fascinating.

    Who would Dan Hodges support in Hampstead? But we all wish that his mother remains in good health.

    Well, given recent trends, Dan Hodges could be the Labour candidate in Hampstead and Kilburn.

    I was thinking, Glenda gets a great movie offer, she decides to resign her seat, and we have a by-election.

    She's a very good actress.
    Dan Hodges, the LABOUR candidate? He's left the party I believe because Ed refused to back military intervention in Syria. (I'm sure there's all sorts of reasons why people have left the Labour Party over the years, this one seemed amongst the more unusual). I presumed he would be standing as an independent in Doncaster? He he mop up all the anti-Miliband vote? If Farage is thinking of Sheffield Hallam, why doesn't Hodges take on Doncaster? I think peter Hitchens lives in Oxfordshire. I wonder if he's thought about standing in Witney?

    I got the impression that Dan Hodges was more annoyed at the way that Milband played the PM on such an issue. Cameron had asked him what was needed to secure a united front from parliament. Miliband told him. Cameron incorporated Milibands requirements for support, organised a vote in parliament, along those lines, and then just before the vote the PM was told that he could no longer support the resolution.

    To leave a PM hanging such a way was both grubby and dishonourable.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,983
    Sorry about your loss, JBJ. Condolences.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,983
    When is the first poll of 2014 out ^_^ ?
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Pulpstar said:

    When is the first poll of 2014 out ^_^ ?

    Would piss myself if there's a crossover, compouter1 would have breakdown!
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,784
    FrankBooth said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think by-elections in Surbiton, Hampstead & Kilburn and Sutton Coldfield would be fascinating.

    Who would Dan Hodges support in Hampstead? But we all wish that his mother remains in good health.

    Well, given recent trends, Dan Hodges could be the Labour candidate in Hampstead and Kilburn.

    I was thinking, Glenda gets a great movie offer, she decides to resign her seat, and we have a by-election.

    She's a very good actress.
    Dan Hodges, the LABOUR candidate? He's left the party I believe because Ed refused to back military intervention in Syria. (I'm sure there's all sorts of reasons why people have left the Labour Party over the years, this one seemed amongst the more unusual). I presumed he would be standing as an independent in Doncaster? He he mop up all the anti-Miliband vote? If Farage is thinking of Sheffield Hallam, why doesn't Hodges take on Doncaster? I think peter Hitchens lives in Oxfordshire. I wonder if he's thought about standing in Witney?

    Hodges writes for the Telegraph, and confines his (political) comments to attacking Labour and particularly Miliband. He's a Conservative in all but name, and I expect him to declare for them by 2015. A betting market on that outcome would be interesting.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,755
    nigel4england said:

    Pulpstar said:

    When is the first poll of 2014 out ^_^ ?

    Would piss myself if there's a crossover, compouter1 would have breakdown!
    You're expecting UKIP to take the lead, eh? I suspect you may have to wait till the Sunday papers - there are no YouGovs Fridays and a poll on Thursday would need to have been started today.

    Shall we idle away the days by guessing? My guess is a Labour lead in the 4-5 range - people have been preoccupied with other things and unless they've been flooded or power-cut are feeling reasonably mellow. UKIP will probably do OK on the back of the "Bulgarians are coming" stuff. Say 37/32/14/8.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,602
    Sad News, Uncle Phil from the 'Fresh Prince of Bel Air' has died http://omg.yahoo.com/news/james-avery-dead-65-fresh-prince-bel-air-190000424-us-weekly.html
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    NickPalmer said:

    nigel4england said:

    Pulpstar said:

    When is the first poll of 2014 out ^_^ ?

    Would piss myself if there's a crossover, compouter1 would have breakdown!
    You're expecting UKIP to take the lead, eh? I suspect you may have to wait till the Sunday papers - there are no YouGovs Fridays and a poll on Thursday would need to have been started today.

    Shall we idle away the days by guessing? My guess is a Labour lead in the 4-5 range - people have been preoccupied with other things and unless they've been flooded or power-cut are feeling reasonably mellow. UKIP will probably do OK on the back of the "Bulgarians are coming" stuff. Say 37/32/14/8.

    I wish!

    I agree with you Labour will still be at least 5% ahead, very interesting year ahead.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    There are fewer by-elections because MPs like the rest of us die later. Number of retired peopel are going up. We need soem immigrants of working age... from various places so that there is a balance !
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    I see Labour claim we were overcharged by £4bn on our energy bills by big 6 paying inflated prices to themselves.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,325
    Pulpstar said:

    When is the first poll of 2014 out ^_^ ?

    Monday night/Tuesday morning - The YouGov for the Sun.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,325
    Tonight's Sherlock was the finest bit of TV since, well the last episode of Sherlock.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    He's a Conservative in all but name, and I expect him to declare for them by 2015.

    Does that make him a LINO - Labour in name only? :-)

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    bigjohnowls said:

    I see Labour claim we were overcharged by £4bn on our energy bills by big 6 paying inflated prices to themselves.

    A "one-off" tax bill coming up. Extremely popular it will be too !
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Tim_B said:

    He's a Conservative in all but name, and I expect him to declare for them by 2015.

    Does that make him a LINO - Labour in name only? :-)

    He is not Labour in any way. Even when he wa sin the Labour Party, he was a Blairite which is not quite Labour.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    isam said:

    Without saying there will be x amount of Romanians, Bulgarians etc, does anyone lose think very small percentage of those who do come will do so by air?

    I have not read any reports as to how many Britons will go to Romania !
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,325
    surbiton said:

    Tim_B said:

    He's a Conservative in all but name, and I expect him to declare for them by 2015.

    Does that make him a LINO - Labour in name only? :-)

    He is not Labour in any way. Even when he wa sin the Labour Party, he was a Blairite which is not quite Labour.
    So that's your way of saying no quite Labour leader has won a working majority in 47 years and counting?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited January 2014
    Tim_B said:

    He's a Conservative in all but name, and I expect him to declare for them by 2015.

    Does that make him a LINO - Labour in name only? :-)

    Methinks that Hodges is well beyond the pale for Labour. He's the guy, it will be recalled, who in Sept 2010 was so confident that David Miliband had won leadership that he posted a piece declaring that that is what has happened.

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2010/09/21/david-miliband-has-won-says-dan-hodges/comment-page-1/#comment-5528

    He's never forgiven Ed. My view at the time was that it was 50-50 which is what happened. http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/09/21/charlie-whelan-goes-large-on-edm/
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,581
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tonight's Sherlock was the finest bit of TV since, well the last episode of Sherlock.

    TSE, I know that you are a man of rare intellect and irrepressible good humour, and I can only assume that you wrote your post with the latter attribute in mind.

    Sherlock was cr@p. Really, really, cr@p. In fact it's been cr@p since the very first episode - although the pilot (which they scr@pped) was excellent. It was so cr@p that Mrs J left after an hour and did not come back for twenty minutes, preferring instead to argue with someone on a blog. (*) And she's a dirty girl who really fancies Benedict Cumberbatch. (1)

    It utterly wasted good actors. It is yet another example of Jessop's first (and so far only) rule of Benedict Cumberbatch: anything that Benedict Cumberbatch appears in is cr@p, but he will be the best thing in it.

    (*) It is a trait we share. One day we shall find ourselves anonymously arguing with each other on some blog ...

    (1): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPpYDHQVp9c
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,325
    @JosiasJessop.

    That has to be worst troll in the history of PB.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    surbiton said:

    Tim_B said:

    He's a Conservative in all but name, and I expect him to declare for them by 2015.

    Does that make him a LINO - Labour in name only? :-)

    He is not Labour in any way. Even when he wa sin the Labour Party, he was a Blairite which is not quite Labour.
    So that's your way of saying no quite Labour leader has won a working majority in 47 years and counting?
    That is basically it. Of course Blair could have won without reaching to the centre-right, but firstly he wanted big majorities and secondly and perhaps most importantly, he just didn't believe in the Labour party in any way shape or form. I donthink history will judge the Blair era in the Labour party as a strange one. I mean what were people like Dan Hodges doing in the Labour Party?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,581
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @JosiasJessop.

    That has to be worst troll in the history of PB.

    I fear you might quote Mark 8:18 to me.

    In all seriousness, it was terrible. Really really terrible.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,325
    JosiasJessop said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @JosiasJessop.

    That has to be worst troll in the history of PB.

    I fear you might quote Mark 8:18 to me.

    In all seriousness, it was terrible. Really really terrible.
    No, just no.

    You're just annoyed that the plot featured the tube and not a proper train service.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    FrankBooth said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    surbiton said:

    Tim_B said:

    He's a Conservative in all but name, and I expect him to declare for them by 2015.

    Does that make him a LINO - Labour in name only? :-)

    He is not Labour in any way. Even when he wa sin the Labour Party, he was a Blairite which is not quite Labour.
    So that's your way of saying no quite Labour leader has won a working majority in 47 years and counting?
    That is basically it. Of course Blair could have won without reaching to the centre-right, but firstly he wanted big majorities and secondly and perhaps most importantly, he just didn't believe in the Labour party in any way shape or form. I donthink history will judge the Blair era in the Labour party as a strange one. I mean what were people like Dan Hodges doing in the Labour Party?
    Not only Hodges but I am getting worried about the utterences of Blunkett. Increasingly, he is sounding xenophobic !
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    MikeSmithson said:

    Tim_B said:

    He's a Conservative in all but name, and I expect him to declare for them by 2015.

    Does that make him a LINO - Labour in name only? :-)

    Methinks that Hodges is well beyond the pale for Labour. He's the guy, it will be recalled, who in Sept 2010 was so confident that David Miliband had won leadership that he posted a piece declaring that that is what has happened.

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2010/09/21/david-miliband-has-won-says-dan-hodges/comment-page-1/#comment-5528

    He's never forgiven Ed. My view at the time was that it was 50-50 which is what happened. http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/09/21/charlie-whelan-goes-large-on-edm/
    We think of journalists as siding with one side or other. We forget that some have other jobs lined up. When someone does not get that job......hell hath no fury..........

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    FrankBooth said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    surbiton said:

    Tim_B said:

    He's a Conservative in all but name, and I expect him to declare for them by 2015.

    Does that make him a LINO - Labour in name only? :-)

    He is not Labour in any way. Even when he wa sin the Labour Party, he was a Blairite which is not quite Labour.
    So that's your way of saying no quite Labour leader has won a working majority in 47 years and counting?
    That is basically it. Of course Blair could have won without reaching to the centre-right, but firstly he wanted big majorities and secondly and perhaps most importantly, he just didn't believe in the Labour party in any way shape or form. I donthink history will judge the Blair era in the Labour party as a strange one. I mean what were people like Dan Hodges doing in the Labour Party?
    I would count 1997 as definitely Labour. Great achievements were made. Minimum wage, for instance is something we should all be proud of. In fact, I remember some Blairite warning that this could price British business out of the market etc. Bullshit !
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited January 2014
    I've just finished watching an unbelievably good Thames TV series of from the 1970s called Danger USB. Brilliantly made and telling a story of WW2 that I've not heard about before - bomb disposal.

    They really made great TV programmes in the late 70s

    Don't buy the boxed set - you can get it for nothing on YouTube
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    MikeSmithson said:

    I've just finished watching an unbelievably good Thames TV series of from the 1970s called Danger USB. Brilliantly made and telling a story of WW2

    Don't buy the boxed set - you can get it for nothing on YouTube

    I got the box set for about 4 pounds on one of amazon.co.uk sale days. It stars the guy from Brideshead. It's a great show.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited January 2014
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    FrankBooth said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think by-elections in Surbiton, Hampstead & Kilburn and Sutton Coldfield would be fascinating.

    Who would Dan Hodges support in Hampstead? But we all wish that his mother remains in good health.

    Well, given recent trends, Dan Hodges could be the Labour candidate in Hampstead and Kilburn.

    I was thinking, Glenda gets a great movie offer, she decides to resign her seat, and we have a by-election.

    She's a very good actress.
    Dan Hodges, the LABOUR candidate? He's left the party I believe because Ed refused to back military intervention in Syria. (I'm sure there's all sorts of reasons why people have left the Labour Party over the years, this one seemed amongst the more unusual). I presumed he would be standing as an independent in Doncaster? He he mop up all the anti-Miliband vote? If Farage is thinking of Sheffield Hallam, why doesn't Hodges take on Doncaster? I think peter Hitchens lives in Oxfordshire. I wonder if he's thought about standing in Witney?

    Hodges writes for the Telegraph, and confines his (political) comments to attacking Labour and particularly Miliband. He's a Conservative in all but name, and I expect him to declare for them by 2015. A betting market on that outcome would be interesting.
    Dan Hodges is not and will never be a Conservative.

    His aspiration is for an electable Labour Party.

    Hence his disappointment with, lack of faith in, and, criticism of Ed Miliband.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Maybe Labour seats are tougher. Less affluence, more misery. Far easier to deal with 'the council only trims my verge every other day' than 'get me out - the whole estate's addicted to heroin.'

    God Sherlock was a mess. (Sorry TSE). And so many holes in the 'back from the dead' reveal. I had a less holey solution.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,706
    surbiton said:

    FrankBooth said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    surbiton said:

    Tim_B said:

    He's a Conservative in all but name, and I expect him to declare for them by 2015.

    Does that make him a LINO - Labour in name only? :-)

    He is not Labour in any way. Even when he wa sin the Labour Party, he was a Blairite which is not quite Labour.
    So that's your way of saying no quite Labour leader has won a working majority in 47 years and counting?
    That is basically it. Of course Blair could have won without reaching to the centre-right, but firstly he wanted big majorities and secondly and perhaps most importantly, he just didn't believe in the Labour party in any way shape or form. I donthink history will judge the Blair era in the Labour party as a strange one. I mean what were people like Dan Hodges doing in the Labour Party?
    I would count 1997 as definitely Labour. Great achievements were made. Minimum wage, for instance is something we should all be proud of. In fact, I remember some Blairite warning that this could price British business out of the market etc. Bullshit !
    I still think the long term effect of the minimum wage will be negative to workers.

    It provides a base for low paid and low medium paid jobs to be leveled down to. Those that will suffer are the employees that used to earn minimum wage plus 20 pc or so.

    If you provide a minimum don't be shocked when it is used for leveling down.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    surbiton said:

    FrankBooth said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    surbiton said:

    Tim_B said:

    He's a Conservative in all but name, and I expect him to declare for them by 2015.

    Does that make him a LINO - Labour in name only? :-)

    He is not Labour in any way. Even when he wa sin the Labour Party, he was a Blairite which is not quite Labour.
    So that's your way of saying no quite Labour leader has won a working majority in 47 years and counting?
    That is basically it. Of course Blair could have won without reaching to the centre-right, but firstly he wanted big majorities and secondly and perhaps most importantly, he just didn't believe in the Labour party in any way shape or form. I donthink history will judge the Blair era in the Labour party as a strange one. I mean what were people like Dan Hodges doing in the Labour Party?
    I would count 1997 as definitely Labour. Great achievements were made. Minimum wage, for instance is something we should all be proud of. In fact, I remember some Blairite warning that this could price British business out of the market etc. Bullshit !
    There was a lot of low hanging fruit available in '97. But the general ethos didn't last long. Right from the start it was uncritical support of big business, the city and the USA.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,325
    My final observation on tonight's Sherlock.

    When Sherlock was doing his mind palace/word list on John fiancée, these are the prominent words

    “Only Child. Disillusioned Lib Dem. Guardian. Bakes Own Bread.”
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Condolences Mr B.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Folks might recall my distress at finding my Terry's Chocolate Orange was not made by Terry's, not made in Yorkshire, or even in the UK.

    Thanks to someone here reassuring me that it still tastes the same, I decided to open it during the Capital One Bowl this afternoon - (one of 6 football games today: how much better can it get unless the Cowboys win the Super Bowl? - I was asked by a fan, and of course I'm not one) -and I can report that it does indeed still taste just as good.

    An allegedly Yorkshire product made in Poland by an American company (Kraft). I'm sure lefties could use this as proof of global warming :-)
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Tim_B said:

    Folks might recall my distress at finding my Terry's Chocolate Orange was not made by Terry's, not made in Yorkshire, or even in the UK.

    Thanks to someone here reassuring me that it still tastes the same, I decided to open it during the Capital One Bowl this afternoon - (one of 6 football games today: how much better can it get unless the Cowboys win the Super Bowl? - I was asked by a fan, and of course I'm not one) -and I can report that it does indeed still taste just as good.

    An allegedly Yorkshire product made in Poland by an American company (Kraft). I'm sure lefties could use this as proof of global warming :-)

    They also used to be massive. But that's a general chocolatey issue.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    For those of a financial bent, some news and data on the Bitcoin phenom.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2013/12/31/bitcoins-incredible-year/?utm_campaign=forbestwittersf&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

    Inspite of reading the article, I'm still all at sea regarding whether it's a bluff, a double bluff, the Emperors New Clothes or the real thing.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Tim_B said:

    Folks might recall my distress at finding my Terry's Chocolate Orange was not made by Terry's, not made in Yorkshire, or even in the UK.

    Thanks to someone here reassuring me that it still tastes the same, I decided to open it during the Capital One Bowl this afternoon - (one of 6 football games today: how much better can it get unless the Cowboys win the Super Bowl? - I was asked by a fan, and of course I'm not one) -and I can report that it does indeed still taste just as good.

    An allegedly Yorkshire product made in Poland by an American company (Kraft). I'm sure lefties could use this as proof of global warming :-)

    It is proof of globularism, Tim.

    Have you heard recently from your twin and fellow expatriate, 'chemical Tim'?

  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,914
    BJB.

    Very sorry to hear your sad news.

    I don't know you but I have appreciated the support of PBers at times of personal sadness in the past.

    Sorry for your loss.
  • compouter1compouter1 Posts: 642
    Hodges expected a job when David Miliband became leader of the Labour Party. Ed won and Hodges has never forgiven him for the money he has lost because of it. It then didn't take him long to leave the Labour Party.

    He writes for a right wing paper and plays to it's readership. He doesn't actually need any insiders as all he has to say is "nameless" or "one that would like to remain nameless". This did lead to the humorous episode where a "Tory source" gave him his *Ahem* marginal poll info. When a number of people asked him or the Tory Party to confirm this information.....it went all quiet. The fact that no one would back this poll up was very highlighting. For one it showed that his sources are, how can I be polite, not all he makes out. Also, his friends in the Tory Party left him to hang out to dry.

    Oh, and quite a few on here hang on his every word.

    All very entertaining.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,784
    AveryLP said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    FrankBooth said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think by-elections in Surbiton, Hampstead & Kilburn and Sutton Coldfield would be fascinating.

    Who would Dan Hodges support in Hampstead? But we all wish that his mother remains in good health.

    Well, given recent trends, Dan Hodges could be the Labour candidate in Hampstead and Kilburn.

    I was thinking, Glenda gets a great movie offer, she decides to resign her seat, and we have a by-election.

    She's a very good actress.
    Dan Hodges, the LABOUR candidate? He's left the party I believe because Ed refused to back military intervention in Syria. (I'm sure there's all sorts of reasons why people have left the Labour Party over the years, this one seemed amongst the more unusual). I presumed he would be standing as an independent in Doncaster? He he mop up all the anti-Miliband vote? If Farage is thinking of Sheffield Hallam, why doesn't Hodges take on Doncaster? I think peter Hitchens lives in Oxfordshire. I wonder if he's thought about standing in Witney?

    Hodges writes for the Telegraph, and confines his (political) comments to attacking Labour and particularly Miliband. He's a Conservative in all but name, and I expect him to declare for them by 2015. A betting market on that outcome would be interesting.
    Dan Hodges is not and will never be a Conservative.

    His aspiration is for an electable Labour Party.

    Hence his disappointment with, lack of faith in, and, criticism of Ed Miliband.
    He criticises Labour and its leader at every opportunity. He chooses to offer no criticism of Cameron or any of the other Conservatives in the Government. He takes regular advantage of a platform offered by a Conservative-supporting newspaper.

    I could be describing Dan Hodges. Equally I could be describing George Osborne.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,914
    edited January 2014
    On a different note.

    One thing that I find gives me great hope and interest in the future is ......

    An ANTEPOST BET!

    :-)

    My 2014 long term, ridiculously optimistic bet, which could make me "Rich as Creases", (pace Chris Huhne), is as follows: £12.50 each way patent with vcbet. £175 stake.

    Aston Villa to win the FA Cup at 50/1. each way 1/2
    Rory McIlroy to win the US Masters at 12/1 e.w. 1/2/3/4/5
    Triolo Dalene to win the Grand National at 20/1 e.w. 1/2/3/4/5

    The win part of the bets is worth £199,000.
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