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Biden: Europe’s last American – politicalbetting.com
Biden: Europe’s last American – politicalbetting.com
Chicago has produced more than its fair share of colourful politicians. Rod Blagojevich – recently pardoned by Donald Trump – was impeached in 2009 as Governor of Illinois for attempting to sell (among other executive actions) Barack Obama’s former senate seat after the latter was elected president. A half-century earlier, Mayor Richard J Daley ran the city like a fiefdom, making and breaking presidential campaigns along the way. Forty years before that, Mayor Bill Thompson openly colluded in the Capone prohibition gangsterism.
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https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/16/europe/trump-has-trashed-the-transatlantic-alliance-intl/index.html
The presidency of Donald Trump has left such a wretched stench in Europe that it's hard to see how, even in four years, Joe Biden could possibly get America's most important alliance back on track.
Regardless, the Trump era has left Europeans with little choice but to wait and see how much of a priority Biden places on reclaiming America's place on the world stage. And they will use the four years of relative quiet under Biden to build safeguards against the all too real possibility of another Euroskeptic firestarter winning the White House in 2024.
https://twitter.com/northumbriana/status/1350373035489046529
One thing that I find slightly peculiar is why some still persist in describing Russia as the "third superpower" - which seems a bit farfetched now.
The next logical step is to accept that the "West" as we know it, has already been killed by Trump. The US and EU cannot be reliable allies as US politics is both too uncertain and likely to be less Atlanticist anyway even if America first nationalism does not reappear under another Trumpist.
What's left is 3 main power blocs, US, China, EU, with the likes of Russia, India, UK, Japan a level below.
https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1350361219543216128?s=20
China is a threat, the EU is an ally, and as China gets stronger and the US relatively weaker it gets less practical to counter China without allies. Any president regardless of party who's serious about countering China will want a strong alliance with the EU. Trump didn't, because he wasn't serious about countering China, or anything else for that matter.
Its superpower status is certainly questionable and probably fragile, but it remains a threat to many countries, owing to its belligerence.
And agreed, David’s article is thought provoking.
"Grifters, conspiracy theorists, and bad faith actors have been tolerated for too long by lockdown sceptics. "
Boris Johnson is planning to host a virtual G7 summit of world leaders within weeks of Joe Biden becoming US president in an attempt to set an ambitious agenda covering climate change, a worldwide vaccination programme, future pandemic preparedness and relations with China.
He is also pressing ahead with plans to convert the face-to-face annual summit of the G7 in June into a D10 of leading democracies. It is due to be the first in-person meeting of world leaders for nearly two years, after the US-hosted G7 was cancelled and the Saudi-hosted G20 meeting moved online last year.
The proposal to expand the G7 into a wider group has met resistance from some European states concerned it will be perceived as an anti-China alliance and a means of diluting the power of EU countries. Concern has been expressed within French and Italian diplomatic circles.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/15/uk-plans-early-g7-virtual-meeting-and-presses-ahead-with-switch-to-d10
Interesting to see how the UK's foreign policy develops after leaving the European Union. It has latched onto the G7/D10 (and less plausibly the Trans Pacific Partnership). India is a wildcard, I think. Has significant potential, but interests aren't all aligned and not especially reliable.
On that weaselly Tweet, here is an extract from the Minutes.
Cllr Sarah Warren, local ward member, spoke against the application. She highlighted the duty of the Committee to prevent harm. She stated that some research showed that 5G can have an adverse effect on health. Electromagnetic pollution could also cause environmental harm. There was real concern from local residents regarding the effect of the 5G mast and she felt that the Committee should be cautious about approving the application.
Cllr Kevin Guy, local ward member, spoke against the application. He noted that an exclusion zone was required for areas with high levels of radiation. He pointed out that the mast would be close to a nursery school and community hall and that it would be irresponsible to approve the application.
The Case Officer then responded to questions as follows:
· Health concerns are a material consideration, however, the NPPF guidance is clear on this issue. To go against these guidelines would be going against national planning policy. The applicant has submitted a certificate of compliance with the ICNIRP public exposure guidelines. The key issues for the Committee to consider are visual impact, greenbelt policies, trees and ecology issues. Any refusal on health grounds would be in clear contravention of planning policy.
and
The Deputy Head of Planning advised that, although the Committee could give weight to the health aspects of the application, given that the applicant has supplied the required certification, if it were refused on health grounds, at appeal the applicant would be able to demonstrate compliance with guidelines and the Council would need its own evidence to weigh against that, and there is none that it could provide.
(Link to Minutes:
https://democracy.bathnes.gov.uk/mgAi.aspx?ID=26893)
They were very silly to make those concerns prominent in their comments. Inspectors can tell when the arrived at reasons for refusal are a pretext when you do that. Unless also on the committee the local members wont have had a vote, but if most public concerns were 5G and the local members brought it up, it's pretty obvious what swayed the committee. Committees are usually more sensible than local members pandering, but given the primary objection is 5G, its suspicious.
It's being approved at appeal I think. Committees try to use weak refusal reasons as a cover all the time, and it doesn't work.
New coronavirus variants could cause more reinfections, require updated vaccines
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/new-coronavirus-variants-could-cause-more-reinfections-require-updated-vaccines
When the number of COVID-19 cases began to rise again in Manaus, Brazil, in December 2020, Nuno Faria was stunned. The virologist at Imperial College London and associate professor at the University of Oxford had just co-authored a paper in Science estimating that three-quarters of the city’s inhabitants had already been infected with SARS-CoV-2, the pandemic coronavirus—more than enough, it seemed, for herd immunity to develop. The virus should be done with Manaus. Yet hospitals were filling up again. “It was hard to reconcile these two things,” Faria says. He started to hunt for samples he could sequence to find out whether changes in the virus could explain the resurgence.
On 12 January, Faria and his colleagues posted their initial conclusions on the website virological.org. Thirteen of 31 samples collected in mid-December in Manaus turned out to be part of a new viral lineage they called P.1. Much more research is needed, but they say one possibility is that in some people, P.1 eludes the human immune response triggered by the lineage that ravaged the city earlier in 2020...
Europe has no strategic autonomy in NATO because it's never going to be an alliance of equals.
Meanwhile hospitals are at breaking point, with patients fighting for their every breath in makeshift wards. Now is the time for our greatest caution until that situation passes.
Rather than covidiot deniers. Although I wouldn't give them time of day.
It is rarely discussed but there is in effect a trade war between US and EU as well as US and China. Both ratcheting up ever increasing fines on each others companies, increasing tariffs, creating new and significant regulatory hurdles for trade.
On top of which about 40% of America supports a fascist who prefers Putin, Xi, Kim, Erdogan to Merket, Macron and Trudeaux.
The UK establishment wants a return of a united West, with the EU acting how the UK would like, rather than the EU acting how it does, and the US acting how the UK would like rather than the US acting how it does.
We need to grow up and face some clear realities, one of which is the US is not a reliable ally over the next couple of decades.
That doesn't mean we have to have economic nationalism, but we do need to be able to rely on non-hostile states for matters of national and international economic security.
A good method for dealing with this is the elimination of oil from the economy. That will remove the ability of Russia etc to 'turn off the tap', as well as defunding many hostile states.
But we also need to ensure China don't have a monopoly on the production of any key silicone chips etc in the economy either.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9152751/Covid-UK-Piers-Corbyn-leads-anti-vaxxer-movement-thinks-jabs-conspiracy.html
The question exposed by David's piece, is how much the parties will engage with each other? Or will they retreat into their respective comfort zones and ignore the other party?
Obviously the EU needs a more coherent defence policy, possibly an NEBTO (North East Baltic Treaty Organisation) with its own shoulder flash? That’ll go down well in certain quarters..
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/12/23/national/japan-vaccine-history-coronavirus/
... Japan’s modern vaccine unease has its roots in a measles, mumps and rubella inoculation that some suspected of leading to higher rates of aseptic meningitis in the early 1990s. Though no definitive link was established, the shots were discontinued, and to this day Japan doesn’t recommend a combined MMR shot.
Another catalyst was a 1992 court ruling that not only made the government responsible for any adverse reactions related to vaccines, but also stipulated that suspected side effects would be considered adverse events, said Tetsuo Nakayama, a professor at the Kitasato Institute for Life Sciences whose research focuses on vaccines. Two years later, the government revised a vaccination law, scrapping mandatory vaccinations.
These events helped send a message that inoculations should be taken at one’s own risk, and diluted the awareness of vaccination as a greater public benefit, said Mikihito Tanaka, a professor at Waseda University specializing in science communication...
There is a reason in the Iraq War that Tony Blair sided with the US President over the French and German Presidents. The EU did not trump Atlanticism and never has done in realpolitk security.
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-london-mayoral-and-general-elections-voting-intentions-13-14-january-2021/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=latest-london-mayoral-and-general-elections-voting-intentions-13-14-january-2021&utm_source=Polling+UnPacked&utm_campaign=d0c939a698-MAILCHIMP&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_494ca252da-d0c939a698-312615349&goal=0_494ca252da-d0c939a698-312615349
Brian Rose, layable at just 9.6 on Betfair, doesn't appear.
Louisa Porritt (LibDem) currently has zero visibility but as we near the election that will change. She is a very attractive candidate with appealing policies and may just outshine Shaun Bailey (Tory) in Remainer London.
https://www.facebook.com/LuisaMPorritt/posts/999042640592084
Louisa Porritt is 660 on Betfair. Trading bet?
In the UK we don't see this as a realistic possibility as we have a romanticised and nostalgic view of the US. The US Trump Republican party is not just America first, it is wholly transactional and has zero problem throwing allies under the bus if they think it helps them get a better deal.
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1350367297626632192?s=21
The only thing (other than keeping Johnson from being PM obviously) that I liked about Corbyn was his foreign policy preferences which included leaning towards not militarisation
I think the Europe / US relationship will be mostly or entirely transactional - the time of NATO as a meaningful alliance is probably over for now - but there is plenty of deal making to be done, if the parties want.
So, one mark off for no Eton & Oxford, but still 9/10 for sameyness.
Most people don't judge another country just because they get some amusement at its political leaders, since everywhere gets its stupid leaders at some point, it really is not a big deal and you shouldn't get so personally, deeply upset by it, nor expect others to feel ashamed because JRM is a cartoon character.
For the realistically foreseeable future then.
https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1203590191069433856
Of course, the US will always play *some* role in NATO - it has an interest in European stability and containing Russia as well - but it will expect to play only a 20-30% role in European security in the long run, not an 80%+ one.
That is inevitable.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9153499/Academic-says-GARDENING-roots-racial-injustice.html
There was a recent poll showing that in any confrontation between the USA and China the EU would prefer to remain neutral.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/16/covid-vaccine-black-people-unlikely-covid-jab-uk?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
However the fact the US now sees China as the main threat rather than Russia also means it no longer sees the need to prop up Western Europe to contain a Russia that is weaker than it was under the USSR
One can read too much into that, of course, but it does suggest there's some basic level of trust there in the Indian population, which is what close relationships are built upon.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1350385633924177922?s=20
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1350389657599668225?s=20
Makes a CDU and Green coalition more likely after September's Federal election in Germany but means the CDU is still likely to leak votes to the AfD on its right.
A parallel here is in WWII where in 1942 American forces were relatively small and British policy led the strategy into Scilly and Italy, and they were even 50:50 at D-Day which was largely commanded by Brits.
Once American forces massively outnumbered British forces (by over 4:1 at the war's end) they called the shots.
It's quite difficult to separate a reasonable analysis of the actual risks from the look-squirrel attempts by Western leaders in difficulty - Trump in the most obvious example but he's not alone. During the Cold War, both sides issued blood-curdling warnings which proved to be somewhat exaggerated (no credible account of either side ever actually getting close to attacking the other has ever emerged). The alliance with America had obvious benefits in basic security but also implicated us in numerous unsavoury interventions; if we take a more dispassionate view of each other in future it may be no bad thing - good friends rather than an uneasy married couple.
All countries will want to influence others in their national interest.
There’s a parallel inability in this country, on both sides of the Brexit debate, to see that (with the possible exception of Ireland) people in EU counties don’t generally give a shit about our domestic politics. They neither fear nor laugh at us - they generally ignore us to focus on their own dramas. The Dutch Government just resigned because the state racially profiled benefit claimants to accuse them of fraud. Pretty dramatic. As I implied earlier in this thread on another topic, there’s an inability to see any nuance in online discourse. It’s all black or white thinking, taking extremes positions in order to get noticed. that has got the whole world into the various degrees of mess (even without COVID) it’s in today. US Presidents either “love” or “hate” places. We’re either a “laughing stock” or “holding all the cards”. It’s all shite. Centrism is boring as hell but...
The last CSU chancellor candidate was 19 years, ago, Bavarian Minister President Edmund Stoiber in 2002 who narrowly lost to Schroder
If the threat shifts to a more global one, from China as well, then it will simply be broadened and renamed.
Of course, most people would prefer to avoid confrontation and mind your own business, but sometimes you don't have a choice if you want to preserve things you value.
I think British opinion would be far more CCP sceptic and supportive of countering the values based threat from China.
I have a hobby that leads to me being in frequent contact with strangers around Europe. When these email exchanges happen, I often subtly try to get a feeling for what they think about UK politics. The frequency with which they speak knowledgably with almost no prompting about UK domestic policy is really eye-opening. Danes and Germans in particular seem to have as good an understanding of what's going on here as people I know in the same hobby circle from the UK.
I see a reversal of that trend with respect to America. Brits know America better than Americans know Britain. But for Europeans, several topics loom large, and the UK is a major one. For good or ill, the eyes of Europe ARE on on, insofar as people are politically engaged outside their own locale. Their gaze is upon us much more than ours is upon theirs.
I find it richly ironic that the professed balance of your post majors on American interventions - together with its loaded language with words like "implicated" and "unsavoury" - whilst failing to mention Soviet interventions that tried to intimidate the West out of Berlin in defiance of its treaty obligations, crushed the Hungarian uprising and Prague spring with tanks, made dozens of interventions in Africa to try and spread its model by force, and tried to suppress Afghanistan under a communist dictatorship.
Of course, the common thread is simply that you sympathise with communism and see American as the crowning symbol of global capitalism.
ON TOPIC. absolutely brilliant header by David.