Today must be the most critical non presidential election in modern American history for if the Democrats can take both the Georgia senate seats then the Biden will start his presidency with his party holding the House, the Senate, and of course the White House.
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All these elections will determine is whether Joe Manchin or Susan Collins or Mitt Romney will have the casting vote in the Senate, depending on whether the Democrats win both, 1 or 0 of the seats up, not that major a change, indeed on some issues Collins is less conservative than Manchin is.
Plus even if the Democrats fail to win the seats, previous Presidents like Nixon, Ford, Reagan and Bush 41 have had to deal with a Congress not fully controlled by their party throughout their presidencies so Biden would not be unique
(Most likely if the Dems take control it'll be Chuck Shumer, but indeed Manchin would be able to veto that if he so feels. The important bit is that it would not be Mitch McConnell any more.)
That makes the Dems - to my mind - the clear odds on favourites.
You fail to mention, despite being reminded of it at least a dozen times today, the power of the Senate majority leader. Whose identity the election will decide.
How many times have Collins or Romney defied him in order to hold a vote which he has obstructed ?
Your examples of previous presidents simply don't compare.
https://twitter.com/adamhamdy/status/1346357071013416960
First step following the ousting of Mitch should be starting the process to recognise the 51st state in Puerto Rico. It is unbelievable that Mitch can unilaterally veto that otherwise, despite millions of Americans voting to become a State in November and both parties (and many GOP Senators) officially supporting their right to decide.
Edit: because it is seen as a reason for the refusal to close borders.
Final results expected by around 11pm EST.
February 12th.
Surely there is some evidence it is falling but no certainty that it is due to the confidence interval?
If you estimate that there is a 60% chance of A and 40% chance of B then surely there is some evidence for A.
That is tonight's choice, to which you seem determined to remain blind.
https://twitter.com/abgutman/status/1346519659005284353
https://twitter.com/abgutman/status/1346520529042362369
Some further tweets
https://twitter.com/abgutman/status/1346522564865253376
Easter ski trips making an appearance you'll be glad to hear.
https://twitter.com/Kevin_Maguire/status/1346521147773513731
Given this, I'm relieved that the government has announced a lockdown and closed schools. Especially as it should mean they don't need to spend time making further decisions on tweaking the Tiers, school closures by region etc. They also don't need to focus on Brexit anymore. Which means they can put close to 100% of their energy into the vaccination programme. And like the "100k tests per day" is now far exceeded, "2m vaccinations per week" should just be a staging post to 5m or 10m per day by the summer.
That means the government's top two priorities should be:
1) Vaccine supply: both from the existing suppliers and those like Moderna and Johnson & Johnson in the future. We need commitments for supply to either be maintained or increased over the course of the year (even as other countries approve the Oxford vaccine), and provide any support the manufacturers need in order to achieve that.
2) Distribution: this hasn't been an issue so far as the Pfizer vaccine supply has been the bottleneck. But it will become one soon unless we act now, so we need everything planned and resourced ahead of time - even if it means paying people (vets, or retired doctors/nurses) and venues (hotels?) to do nothing in the meantime.
We're in a relatively good starting position compared to a lot of other countries in terms of vaccine supply, but a fairly bad one for current infection levels, so we really need to put all our focus into getting this right.
The pb Skiing Club normally meets after the pb Vintage Wine Experience (currently in progress)
It's fortunate Biden's win was pretty clear cut. Had it not been, I really do think you would have seen civil unrest, and quite possibly some form of attempted coup.
https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1346518236515479554?s=20
So this absolutely has to be the sole focus of the country almost at the moment. To paraphrase Blair the top priorities of the country should be vaccination, vaccination, vaccination.
"All 10 former US defence secretaries still living, including two who worked for Donald Trump, have called for the president and his supporters to accept he lost the election and warned against attempts to involve the military in his increasingly desperate efforts to overturn the result.
In an unprecedented joint letter published in the Washington Post, the defence secretaries addressed the worst fears of what could happen in 17 days of Trump’s administration remaining before Joe Biden’s inauguration: an attempt by Trump to foment a crisis with the aim of triggering a military intervention in his last-ditch struggle to hold on power.
“Efforts to involve the US armed forces in resolving election disputes would take us into dangerous, unlawful and unconstitutional territory,” the letter said.
“Civilian and military officials who direct or carry out such measures would be accountable, including potentially facing criminal penalties, for the grave consequences of their actions on our republic.”
From yesterday, but worrying if all 10 former defence secretaries are prepared to go into print about it. It is easy to say that the armed forces are loyal to the constitution not the President and they all think he's a twat, but there are Trumpsters among them. Even if nothing sinister happens in future the fact that the Pentagon is currently not talking to Biden leaves the country in a dangerously exposed condition.
As for your question FPT, yes I do think the unrestricted R is very high.
We're having doubts whether the current lockdown is enough to push it below 1, and we've seen cases double in a week in places despite still quite significant restrictions.
Then think about all the contacts that aren't currently happening: the packed pubs, clubs, and restaurants, the crowds squeezing in and out of stadiums and theatres, the open plan offices, the rush-hour busses and trains, the large family gatherings, ...
R=4 corresponds to herd immunity at 75% immunity, but that still seems like an underestimate to me.
So, restrictions forever?
No, use both vaccines and restrictions to push the virus near zero, and then use test&trace, isolation and aggressive local restrictions to keep it in check. We haven't been able or willing to do it so far, but we really ought to be able to do it with the help of the vaccines.
So Trump has decided to go out with a bang, in the early hours of Jan 20th, he's going to bomb Iran, then say over to you Joe.
Edit: Perhaps this will motivate Schapps to close the borders.
The problem is that unless Mr T is genuinely movcing house he can't legally leave the airport - and neither can his entourage, and they can't all be moving house can they? Also he loses diplomatic immunity the next day.
The difference between evil piece of crap McConnell heading the Senate or wimpish piece of crap Schumer heading the Senate is night and day for Biden.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-48582267
Biden and McConnell are friends. Mitch was the only Republican to attend the funeral of Joe's son. Yes they would spar and disagree but they would also strike deals. Joe Biden isn't Barack Obama and he knows how to win people over with the equivalent of fireside chats and backroom deals.
What would be really interesting is a 49-51 split ... leaving Mitt Romney as the most powerful person in America after the President. If you get my drift.
Why was the meeting on Monday morning knowing that schools were going back that very morning?
But close the effing border anyway.
https://news.sky.com/story/donald-trump-told-by-nicola-sturgeon-hes-not-allowed-to-play-golf-in-scotland-during-joe-biden-inauguration-12180046
https://twitter.com/OdysseanProject/status/1346535172683014145
There is a separate concept that Heads of State have immunity by virtue of their office. Which has a ton of caveats and gets the 4 figure per hour lawyers all excited.
There is also the fun area of law regarding immunity for former Heads of State.
Quibbling over small distinctions though.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibrahim_Prize
That's how I read it in an article I read a while back.
I have developed my own 100% reliable Covid Test
Result known in 10 secs
Fart under the covers
Place head under covers
Waft covers
If you cant smell it you have Covid if you can all is well even if it makes you cough