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Six hours to go before Georgia voting closes and the pressure builds on Pence who oversees tomorrow’

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited January 5 in General
imageSix hours to go before Georgia voting closes and the pressure builds on Pence who oversees tomorrow’s vital Congress session – politicalbetting.com

Today must be the most critical non presidential election in modern American history for if the Democrats can take both the Georgia senate seats then the Biden will start his presidency with his party holding the House, the Senate, and of course the White House.

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Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 81,377
    edited January 5
    'Today must be the most critical non presidential election in modern American history'? What about the 1994, 2002, 2010 or 2018 midterms to name just a few. The 1994 midterms in particular was a major change in terms of the victory for Newt Gingrich's 'Contract with America' and I would suggest far more significant than the 2 Georgia Senate runoffs today.

    All these elections will determine is whether Joe Manchin or Susan Collins or Mitt Romney will have the casting vote in the Senate, depending on whether the Democrats win both, 1 or 0 of the seats up, not that major a change, indeed on some issues Collins is less conservative than Manchin is.

    Plus even if the Democrats fail to win the seats, previous Presidents like Nixon, Ford, Reagan and Bush 41 have had to deal with a Congress not fully controlled by their party throughout their presidencies so Biden would not be unique
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 548
    First?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 60,514
    Pence could totally decide things. One man, one vote is the essence of Democracy.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 88,575
    edited January 5
    ClippP said:

    First?

    First like Trump.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 15,846
    On Topic what time do polls close and are they counting overnight??
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 4,893
    rpjs said:

    kle4 said:

    Pence could totally decide things. One man, one vote is the essence of Democracy.

    The Vetinari Doctrine
    He's a great character - so far as I know only partially sketched. I hope so anyway in that he's better thus.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 31,369

    On Topic what time do polls close and are they counting overnight??

    And every night? Probably not
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,108
    edited January 5
    HYUFD said:

    'Today must be the most critical non presidential election in modern American history'? What about the 1994, 2002, 2010 or 2018 midterms to name just a few. The 1994 midterms in particular was a major change in terms of the victory for Newt Gingrich's 'Contract with America' and I would suggest far more significant than the 2 Georgia Senate runoffs today.

    All these elections will determine is whether Joe Manchin or Susan Collins or Mitt Romney will have the casting vote in the Senate, depending on whether the Democrats win both, 1 or 0 of the seats up, not that major a change, indeed on some issues Collins is less conservative than Manchin is.

    Plus even if the Democrats fail to win the seats, previous Presidents like Nixon, Ford, Reagan and Bush 41 have had to deal with a Congress not fully controlled by their party throughout their presidencies so Biden would not be unique

    It's a little bit more significant than which particular member of the two parties' awkward squads gets the most influence on close votes: if the Democrats do win both seats, then Vice-President Harris can ensure that the Democrats appoint the Senate majority leader who effectively sets the Senate's agenda and decides whether to take up bills from the House.

    (Most likely if the Dems take control it'll be Chuck Shumer, but indeed Manchin would be able to veto that if he so feels. The important bit is that it would not be Mitch McConnell any more.)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 34,793
    edited January 5
    Just to repost the table I created: this is early voting stats for the six most important counties in Georgia, comparing November's General to the run-offs.
              Nov Rslt  2000    2001        Change
    Fulton D +46 57.9 42.4 -27%
    DeKalb D +67 60.8 46.6 -23%
    Forsyth R +33 73.2 47.9 -35%
    Hall R +43 61.3 37.6 -39%
    Richmond D +37 51.6 33.9 -34%
    Cherokee R +39 61.9 37.2 -40%
    The turnout in the most Republican counties is down 38%, vs a drop of 28% in the most Democratic counties.

    That makes the Dems - to my mind - the clear odds on favourites.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 28,312
    edited January 5
    HYUFD said:

    'Today must be the most critical non presidential election in modern American history'? What about the 1994, 2002, 2010 or 2018 midterms to name just a few. The 1994 midterms in particular was a major change in terms of the victory for Newt Gingrich's 'Contract with America' and I would suggest far more significant than the 2 Georgia Senate runoffs today.

    All these elections will determine is whether Joe Manchin or Susan Collins or Mitt Romney will have the casting vote in the Senate, depending on whether the Democrats win both, 1 or 0 of the seats up, not that major a change, indeed on some issues Collins is less conservative than Manchin is.

    Plus even if the Democrats fail to win the seats, previous Presidents like Nixon, Ford, Reagan and Bush 41 have had to deal with a Congress not fully controlled by their party throughout their presidencies so Biden would not be unique

    Sure.
    You fail to mention, despite being reminded of it at least a dozen times today, the power of the Senate majority leader. Whose identity the election will decide.
    How many times have Collins or Romney defied him in order to hold a vote which he has obstructed ?

    Your examples of previous presidents simply don't compare.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,108

    On Topic what time do polls close and are they counting overnight??

    Most Southern states close fairly early, so probably 6pm or 7pm EST, 11pm or midnight GMT.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 28,312
    Following on from the discussion FPT of Johnsonian negligence ...

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 47,349
    rpjs said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Today must be the most critical non presidential election in modern American history'? What about the 1994, 2002, 2010 or 2018 midterms to name just a few. The 1994 midterms in particular was a major change in terms of the victory for Newt Gingrich's 'Contract with America' and I would suggest far more significant than the 2 Georgia Senate runoffs today.

    All these elections will determine is whether Joe Manchin or Susan Collins or Mitt Romney will have the casting vote in the Senate, depending on whether the Democrats win both, 1 or 0 of the seats up, not that major a change, indeed on some issues Collins is less conservative than Manchin is.

    Plus even if the Democrats fail to win the seats, previous Presidents like Nixon, Ford, Reagan and Bush 41 have had to deal with a Congress not fully controlled by their party throughout their presidencies so Biden would not be unique

    It's a little bit more significant than which particular member of the two parties' awkward squads gets the most influence on close votes: if the Democrats do win both seats, then Vice-President Harris can ensure that the Democrats appoint the Senate majority leader who effectively sets the Senate's agenda and decides whether to take up bills from the House.

    (Most likely if the Dems take control it'll be Chuck Shumer, but indeed Manchin would be able to veto that if he so feels. The important bit is that it would not be Mitch McConnell any more.)
    I very much hope Mitch goes this way.

    First step following the ousting of Mitch should be starting the process to recognise the 51st state in Puerto Rico. It is unbelievable that Mitch can unilaterally veto that otherwise, despite millions of Americans voting to become a State in November and both parties (and many GOP Senators) officially supporting their right to decide.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 2,525
    I hope everyone's ready for the glacial Georgia vote counting machine to grind into action again.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 10,115
    Omnium said:

    rpjs said:

    kle4 said:

    Pence could totally decide things. One man, one vote is the essence of Democracy.

    The Vetinari Doctrine
    He's a great character - so far as I know only partially sketched. I hope so anyway in that he's better thus.
    Played by Jeremy Irons and Charles Dance in 2 movies, so far.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 8,690

    I hope everyone's ready for the glacial Georgia vote counting machine to grind into action again.

    Stop the count!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 81,377

    I hope everyone's ready for the glacial Georgia vote counting machine to grind into action again.

    Stop the count!
  • IanB2 said:

    On Topic what time do polls close and are they counting overnight??

    And every night? Probably not
    Is there a market on when Betfair will settle?
  • IanB2 said:

    On Topic what time do polls close and are they counting overnight??

    And every night? Probably not
    Is there a market on when Betfair will settle?
    July 2021.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 50,909
    HYUFD said:
    Another journalist who doesn't understand statistics. There is no evidence it is falling, as indicated by the confidence interval.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 9,230
    edited January 5
    Nigelb said:

    Following on from the discussion FPT of Johnsonian negligence ...

    Interesting to see that peoiple are identifying the free travel in and out of the UK of Tory, erm, party support payment providers as a major obstacle to rational management of the pandemic.

    Edit: because it is seen as a reason for the refusal to close borders.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 34,793
    rpjs said:

    On Topic what time do polls close and are they counting overnight??

    Most Southern states close fairly early, so probably 6pm or 7pm EST, 11pm or midnight GMT.
    Polls close at 7pm EST / midnight GMT.

    Final results expected by around 11pm EST.

    February 12th.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 81,377
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Today must be the most critical non presidential election in modern American history'? What about the 1994, 2002, 2010 or 2018 midterms to name just a few. The 1994 midterms in particular was a major change in terms of the victory for Newt Gingrich's 'Contract with America' and I would suggest far more significant than the 2 Georgia Senate runoffs today.

    All these elections will determine is whether Joe Manchin or Susan Collins or Mitt Romney will have the casting vote in the Senate, depending on whether the Democrats win both, 1 or 0 of the seats up, not that major a change, indeed on some issues Collins is less conservative than Manchin is.

    Plus even if the Democrats fail to win the seats, previous Presidents like Nixon, Ford, Reagan and Bush 41 have had to deal with a Congress not fully controlled by their party throughout their presidencies so Biden would not be unique

    Sure.
    You fail to mention, despite being reminded of it at least a dozen times today, the power of the Senate majority leader. Whose identity the election will decide.
    How many times have Collins or Romney defied him in order to hold a vote which he has obstructed ?

    Your examples of previous presidents simply don't compare.
    And if they come to a vote Manchin and Collins will vote down anything that shifts the centre of gravity significantly
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 10,115
    rcs1000 said:

    rpjs said:

    On Topic what time do polls close and are they counting overnight??

    Most Southern states close fairly early, so probably 6pm or 7pm EST, 11pm or midnight GMT.
    Polls close at 7pm EST / midnight GMT.

    Final results expected by around 11pm EST.

    February 12th.
    But February which year?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 9,230
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Another journalist who doesn't understand statistics. There is no evidence it is falling, as indicated by the confidence interval.
    "Journalist." Not respectful enough term for the Speccy editor.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 27,581
    FPT:
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    The vaccination programmes hasn't even started in my part of Sussex. We have an elderly population, so this is rather worrying.

    Farr's sale began today btw.
    My order went in at 10.32 this morning. Have to do something* with those winnings on the US election...

    * Although quite a chunk also went to charities
    Ha! Did you get the Rieussec?? I blinked and it had gone!
    I considered it, but I'm already long in Rieussec from other vintages. I picked up a two-dozen case of halves of Doisy Védrines 2010 instead; it fills a gap before my 2014s and 2015s come on stream.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 47,349
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Another journalist who doesn't understand statistics. There is no evidence it is falling, as indicated by the confidence interval.
    Is that right?

    Surely there is some evidence it is falling but no certainty that it is due to the confidence interval?

    If you estimate that there is a 60% chance of A and 40% chance of B then surely there is some evidence for A.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 8,690
    Carnyx said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Another journalist who doesn't understand statistics. There is no evidence it is falling, as indicated by the confidence interval.
    "Journalist." Not respectful enough term for the Speccy editor.
    Does "legend" adequately describe Fraser?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 28,312
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Today must be the most critical non presidential election in modern American history'? What about the 1994, 2002, 2010 or 2018 midterms to name just a few. The 1994 midterms in particular was a major change in terms of the victory for Newt Gingrich's 'Contract with America' and I would suggest far more significant than the 2 Georgia Senate runoffs today.

    All these elections will determine is whether Joe Manchin or Susan Collins or Mitt Romney will have the casting vote in the Senate, depending on whether the Democrats win both, 1 or 0 of the seats up, not that major a change, indeed on some issues Collins is less conservative than Manchin is.

    Plus even if the Democrats fail to win the seats, previous Presidents like Nixon, Ford, Reagan and Bush 41 have had to deal with a Congress not fully controlled by their party throughout their presidencies so Biden would not be unique

    Sure.
    You fail to mention, despite being reminded of it at least a dozen times today, the power of the Senate majority leader. Whose identity the election will decide.
    How many times have Collins or Romney defied him in order to hold a vote which he has obstructed ?

    Your examples of previous presidents simply don't compare.
    And if they come to a vote Manchin and Collins will vote down anything that shifts the centre of gravity significantly
    You're comparing normal politics with complete obstructionism.
    That is tonight's choice, to which you seem determined to remain blind.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 8,690
    HYUFD said:
    GOP voters taking Trump's sound advice, and staying at home?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 9,230

    Carnyx said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Another journalist who doesn't understand statistics. There is no evidence it is falling, as indicated by the confidence interval.
    "Journalist." Not respectful enough term for the Speccy editor.
    Does "legend" adequately describe Fraser?
    There are times when I think a Maths A-level with stats and ideally also mechanics supplements should be absolutely compulsory for all university entrants. Before they are let loose on the innocent lieges of HMtQ.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 9,887
    R5L spending another quarter hour talking about holidays from mid February.
    Easter ski trips making an appearance you'll be glad to hear.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 47,349
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Today must be the most critical non presidential election in modern American history'? What about the 1994, 2002, 2010 or 2018 midterms to name just a few. The 1994 midterms in particular was a major change in terms of the victory for Newt Gingrich's 'Contract with America' and I would suggest far more significant than the 2 Georgia Senate runoffs today.

    All these elections will determine is whether Joe Manchin or Susan Collins or Mitt Romney will have the casting vote in the Senate, depending on whether the Democrats win both, 1 or 0 of the seats up, not that major a change, indeed on some issues Collins is less conservative than Manchin is.

    Plus even if the Democrats fail to win the seats, previous Presidents like Nixon, Ford, Reagan and Bush 41 have had to deal with a Congress not fully controlled by their party throughout their presidencies so Biden would not be unique

    Sure.
    You fail to mention, despite being reminded of it at least a dozen times today, the power of the Senate majority leader. Whose identity the election will decide.
    How many times have Collins or Romney defied him in order to hold a vote which he has obstructed ?

    Your examples of previous presidents simply don't compare.
    And if they come to a vote Manchin and Collins will vote down anything that shifts the centre of gravity significantly
    You're comparing normal politics with complete obstructionism.
    That is tonight's choice, to which you seem determined to remain blind.
    McConnell given the opportunity would veto almost every federal judicial appointment for the next four years.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 60,514
    Isn't spending much of the period between electoral cycles having legal battles over the result of the last election and the actions of those elected how the Roman Republic did it at the end many times? And it worked out great, I don't see the problem.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 47,349
    It is no exaggeration to say that some Republicans are enemies of democracy now.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 10,115
    Isn't that going to get them into a world of fun with Biden DOJ - Civil Rights Act etc?
  • A helpful suggestion from Kevin Maguire.

  • RattersRatters Posts: 65
    Looking at the detail of the ONS data (published here ), the estimate is that c.3.5% of people in London have Covid as at the end of December. That's remarkably high, but not high enough to get any sort of herd immunity until the vaccines save us. I can only hope this represents close to the peak, as I've heard hospitals here are really struggling already.

    Given this, I'm relieved that the government has announced a lockdown and closed schools. Especially as it should mean they don't need to spend time making further decisions on tweaking the Tiers, school closures by region etc. They also don't need to focus on Brexit anymore. Which means they can put close to 100% of their energy into the vaccination programme. And like the "100k tests per day" is now far exceeded, "2m vaccinations per week" should just be a staging post to 5m or 10m per day by the summer.

    That means the government's top two priorities should be:

    1) Vaccine supply: both from the existing suppliers and those like Moderna and Johnson & Johnson in the future. We need commitments for supply to either be maintained or increased over the course of the year (even as other countries approve the Oxford vaccine), and provide any support the manufacturers need in order to achieve that.

    2) Distribution: this hasn't been an issue so far as the Pfizer vaccine supply has been the bottleneck. But it will become one soon unless we act now, so we need everything planned and resourced ahead of time - even if it means paying people (vets, or retired doctors/nurses) and venues (hotels?) to do nothing in the meantime.

    We're in a relatively good starting position compared to a lot of other countries in terms of vaccine supply, but a fairly bad one for current infection levels, so we really need to put all our focus into getting this right.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 38,775
    HYUFD said:

    I hope everyone's ready for the glacial Georgia vote counting machine to grind into action again.

    Stop the count!
    Aren't they already suing him? Maybe he is beyond caring?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 9,230
    edited January 5
    kle4 said:

    Isn't spending much of the period between electoral cycles having legal battles over the result of the last election and the actions of those elected how the Roman Republic did it at the end many times? And it worked out great, I don't see the problem.
    They ended up murdering the plebeian tribunes and having battles with legions ratyher than laws. Inter arma silent leges.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 60,514
    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    Isn't spending much of the period between electoral cycles having legal battles over the result of the last election and the actions of those elected how the Roman Republic did it at the end many times? And it worked out great, I don't see the problem.
    They ended up murdering the plebeian tribunes and having battles with legions rather than laws. Inter arma silent leges.
    Exactly. Fine.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 5,155
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Another journalist who doesn't understand statistics. There is no evidence it is falling, as indicated by the confidence interval.
    "Journalist." Not respectful enough term for the Speccy editor.
    Does "legend" adequately describe Fraser?
    There are times when I think a Maths A-level with stats and ideally also mechanics supplements should be absolutely compulsory for all university entrants. Before they are let loose on the innocent lieges of HMtQ.
    What? The fall in the estimated number of infections is evidence that levels are falling; confidence intervals are about the reliability of that evidence. They don't disqualify it as evidence altogether. And if you look at the actual numbers the upper bound figures have been falling for 7 days straight anyway, the lower bound for 6 and the central estimate for 5.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 5,043
    dixiedean said:

    R5L spending another quarter hour talking about holidays from mid February.
    Easter ski trips making an appearance you'll be glad to hear.

    Excellent.

    The pb Skiing Club normally meets after the pb Vintage Wine Experience (currently in progress) :)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 10,115
    kle4 said:

    Isn't spending much of the period between electoral cycles having legal battles over the result of the last election and the actions of those elected how the Roman Republic did it at the end many times? And it worked out great, I don't see the problem.
    Any minute now, Pence will look at the sky, declare that thunder makes the omens unfavourable and send the everyone home.....
  • It is no exaggeration to say that some Republicans are enemies of democracy now.

    It is no exaggeration to say that some Republicans are enemies of democracy now.
    The whole refusal to concede thing is a repudiation of democracy.

    It's fortunate Biden's win was pretty clear cut. Had it not been, I really do think you would have seen civil unrest, and quite possibly some form of attempted coup.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 9,230
    IshmaelZ said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Another journalist who doesn't understand statistics. There is no evidence it is falling, as indicated by the confidence interval.
    "Journalist." Not respectful enough term for the Speccy editor.
    Does "legend" adequately describe Fraser?
    There are times when I think a Maths A-level with stats and ideally also mechanics supplements should be absolutely compulsory for all university entrants. Before they are let loose on the innocent lieges of HMtQ.
    What? The fall in the estimated number of infections is evidence that levels are falling; confidence intervals are about the reliability of that evidence. They don't disqualify it as evidence altogether. And if you look at the actual numbers the upper bound figures have been falling for 7 days straight anyway, the lower bound for 6 and the central estimate for 5.
    Fair enough in this case, and indeed quite right (though still some room for concern if the actual underlying trend has changed very recently, in the last very few days). I was just being grumpy about the wider problem of qualkifications for politically influential figures!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 60,514

    kle4 said:

    Isn't spending much of the period between electoral cycles having legal battles over the result of the last election and the actions of those elected how the Roman Republic did it at the end many times? And it worked out great, I don't see the problem.
    Any minute now, Pence will look at the sky, declare that thunder makes the omens unfavourable and send the everyone home.....
    Look, nothing in the Constitution says you cannot appoint a Chief Augur, I'm just saying.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 24,349
    Bloody free market, the government should step in.

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 10,870
    I see Keir has brought his Union Flag along for the cameras.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 47,349
    Ratters said:

    Looking at the detail of the ONS data (published here ), the estimate is that c.3.5% of people in London have Covid as at the end of December. That's remarkably high, but not high enough to get any sort of herd immunity until the vaccines save us. I can only hope this represents close to the peak, as I've heard hospitals here are really struggling already.

    Given this, I'm relieved that the government has announced a lockdown and closed schools. Especially as it should mean they don't need to spend time making further decisions on tweaking the Tiers, school closures by region etc. They also don't need to focus on Brexit anymore. Which means they can put close to 100% of their energy into the vaccination programme. And like the "100k tests per day" is now far exceeded, "2m vaccinations per week" should just be a staging post to 5m or 10m per day by the summer.

    That means the government's top two priorities should be:

    1) Vaccine supply: both from the existing suppliers and those like Moderna and Johnson & Johnson in the future. We need commitments for supply to either be maintained or increased over the course of the year (even as other countries approve the Oxford vaccine), and provide any support the manufacturers need in order to achieve that.

    2) Distribution: this hasn't been an issue so far as the Pfizer vaccine supply has been the bottleneck. But it will become one soon unless we act now, so we need everything planned and resourced ahead of time - even if it means paying people (vets, or retired doctors/nurses) and venues (hotels?) to do nothing in the meantime.

    We're in a relatively good starting position compared to a lot of other countries in terms of vaccine supply, but a fairly bad one for current infection levels, so we really need to put all our focus into getting this right.

    It seems unlikely distribution is going to be the limitation any time soon. Theoretically 5000 GP surgeries doing a thousand injections a week would be 5 million vaccinations per week without any at hospitals etc.

    So this absolutely has to be the sole focus of the country almost at the moment. To paraphrase Blair the top priorities of the country should be vaccination, vaccination, vaccination.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 10,115
    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    Isn't spending much of the period between electoral cycles having legal battles over the result of the last election and the actions of those elected how the Roman Republic did it at the end many times? And it worked out great, I don't see the problem.
    They ended up murdering the plebeian tribunes and having battles with legions ratyher than laws. Inter arma silent leges.
    Because the people kept on doing the voting thing wrong. Despite a massive thumb in the scale on the side of the oligarchy (Senate). So they moderated what democracy there was, with murder.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 9,230
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Isn't spending much of the period between electoral cycles having legal battles over the result of the last election and the actions of those elected how the Roman Republic did it at the end many times? And it worked out great, I don't see the problem.
    Any minute now, Pence will look at the sky, declare that thunder makes the omens unfavourable and send the everyone home.....
    Look, nothing in the Constitution says you cannot appoint a Chief Augur, I'm just saying.
    Don't give Mr Trump ideas ...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 60,514

    HYUFD said:

    I hope everyone's ready for the glacial Georgia vote counting machine to grind into action again.

    Stop the count!
    Aren't they already suing him? Maybe he is beyond caring?
    He'll be in seclusion in Scotland, why should he worry?
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Isn't spending much of the period between electoral cycles having legal battles over the result of the last election and the actions of those elected how the Roman Republic did it at the end many times? And it worked out great, I don't see the problem.
    Any minute now, Pence will look at the sky, declare that thunder makes the omens unfavourable and send the everyone home.....
    Look, nothing in the Constitution says you cannot appoint a Chief Augur, I'm just saying.
    The 9th and 10th Amendments says otherwise.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 5,155
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/04/leave-military-out-of-it-former-defence-secretaries-tell-trump

    "All 10 former US defence secretaries still living, including two who worked for Donald Trump, have called for the president and his supporters to accept he lost the election and warned against attempts to involve the military in his increasingly desperate efforts to overturn the result.

    In an unprecedented joint letter published in the Washington Post, the defence secretaries addressed the worst fears of what could happen in 17 days of Trump’s administration remaining before Joe Biden’s inauguration: an attempt by Trump to foment a crisis with the aim of triggering a military intervention in his last-ditch struggle to hold on power.

    “Efforts to involve the US armed forces in resolving election disputes would take us into dangerous, unlawful and unconstitutional territory,” the letter said.

    “Civilian and military officials who direct or carry out such measures would be accountable, including potentially facing criminal penalties, for the grave consequences of their actions on our republic.”

    From yesterday, but worrying if all 10 former defence secretaries are prepared to go into print about it. It is easy to say that the armed forces are loyal to the constitution not the President and they all think he's a twat, but there are Trumpsters among them. Even if nothing sinister happens in future the fact that the Pentagon is currently not talking to Biden leaves the country in a dangerously exposed condition.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 583
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Another journalist who doesn't understand statistics. There is no evidence it is falling, as indicated by the confidence interval.
    Oh come on let us hold on to a bit of hope. If tier 4 with schools shut and most people at home on holiday doesn't do it, we're in deep deep trouble.

    As for your question FPT, yes I do think the unrestricted R is very high.

    We're having doubts whether the current lockdown is enough to push it below 1, and we've seen cases double in a week in places despite still quite significant restrictions.

    Then think about all the contacts that aren't currently happening: the packed pubs, clubs, and restaurants, the crowds squeezing in and out of stadiums and theatres, the open plan offices, the rush-hour busses and trains, the large family gatherings, ...

    R=4 corresponds to herd immunity at 75% immunity, but that still seems like an underestimate to me.

    So, restrictions forever?

    No, use both vaccines and restrictions to push the virus near zero, and then use test&trace, isolation and aggressive local restrictions to keep it in check. We haven't been able or willing to do it so far, but we really ought to be able to do it with the help of the vaccines.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 60,514
    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Isn't spending much of the period between electoral cycles having legal battles over the result of the last election and the actions of those elected how the Roman Republic did it at the end many times? And it worked out great, I don't see the problem.
    Any minute now, Pence will look at the sky, declare that thunder makes the omens unfavourable and send the everyone home.....
    Look, nothing in the Constitution says you cannot appoint a Chief Augur, I'm just saying.
    Don't give Mr Trump ideas ...
    He got the idea after watching Air Bud.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/04/leave-military-out-of-it-former-defence-secretaries-tell-trump

    "All 10 former US defence secretaries still living, including two who worked for Donald Trump, have called for the president and his supporters to accept he lost the election and warned against attempts to involve the military in his increasingly desperate efforts to overturn the result.

    In an unprecedented joint letter published in the Washington Post, the defence secretaries addressed the worst fears of what could happen in 17 days of Trump’s administration remaining before Joe Biden’s inauguration: an attempt by Trump to foment a crisis with the aim of triggering a military intervention in his last-ditch struggle to hold on power.

    “Efforts to involve the US armed forces in resolving election disputes would take us into dangerous, unlawful and unconstitutional territory,” the letter said.

    “Civilian and military officials who direct or carry out such measures would be accountable, including potentially facing criminal penalties, for the grave consequences of their actions on our republic.”

    From yesterday, but worrying if all 10 former defence secretaries are prepared to go into print about it. It is easy to say that the armed forces are loyal to the constitution not the President and they all think he's a twat, but there are Trumpsters among them. Even if nothing sinister happens in future the fact that the Pentagon is currently not talking to Biden leaves the country in a dangerously exposed condition.

    A friend has convinced me that Trump wanted to use the military to stay in power but they said no.

    So Trump has decided to go out with a bang, in the early hours of Jan 20th, he's going to bomb Iran, then say over to you Joe.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 9,268
    edited January 5
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I hope everyone's ready for the glacial Georgia vote counting machine to grind into action again.

    Stop the count!
    Aren't they already suing him? Maybe he is beyond caring?
    He'll be in seclusion in Scotland, why should he worry?
    Is he terrifically popular in Scotland? I thought there was a problem with a golf club of his.

    Edit: Perhaps this will motivate Schapps to close the borders.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 60,514

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Isn't spending much of the period between electoral cycles having legal battles over the result of the last election and the actions of those elected how the Roman Republic did it at the end many times? And it worked out great, I don't see the problem.
    Any minute now, Pence will look at the sky, declare that thunder makes the omens unfavourable and send the everyone home.....
    Look, nothing in the Constitution says you cannot appoint a Chief Augur, I'm just saying.
    The 9th and 10th Amendments says otherwise.
    Well, I wasn't about to let the facts get in the way of an opportunity like that.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 9,230

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I hope everyone's ready for the glacial Georgia vote counting machine to grind into action again.

    Stop the count!
    Aren't they already suing him? Maybe he is beyond caring?
    He'll be in seclusion in Scotland, why should he worry?
    Is he terrifically popular in Scotland? I thought there was a problem with a golf club of his.
    More his behaviour with the natives at all levels.

    The problem is that unless Mr T is genuinely movcing house he can't legally leave the airport - and neither can his entourage, and they can't all be moving house can they? Also he loses diplomatic immunity the next day.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,108

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Isn't spending much of the period between electoral cycles having legal battles over the result of the last election and the actions of those elected how the Roman Republic did it at the end many times? And it worked out great, I don't see the problem.
    Any minute now, Pence will look at the sky, declare that thunder makes the omens unfavourable and send the everyone home.....
    Look, nothing in the Constitution says you cannot appoint a Chief Augur, I'm just saying.
    The 9th and 10th Amendments says otherwise.
    I respectfully disagree. There are plenty of federal offices appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate that are not specifically provided for in the Constitution. They do have to be authorised by statute though. However, as auguries are clearly a religious practice, creating such an office would likely fall foul of the 1st Amendment though: "Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion".
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 35,791
    dr_spyn said:

    I see Keir has brought his Union Flag along for the cameras.

    He must be pining for the return of the Brittas Empire.
  • Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I hope everyone's ready for the glacial Georgia vote counting machine to grind into action again.

    Stop the count!
    Aren't they already suing him? Maybe he is beyond caring?
    He'll be in seclusion in Scotland, why should he worry?
    Is he terrifically popular in Scotland? I thought there was a problem with a golf club of his.
    More his behaviour with the natives at all levels.

    The problem is that unless Mr T is genuinely movcing house he can't legally leave the airport - and neither can his entourage, and they can't all be moving house can they? Also he loses diplomatic immunity the next day.
    Doesn't the US guarantee all their Presidents and cabinet officers lifelong diplomatic immunity?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,108
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I hope everyone's ready for the glacial Georgia vote counting machine to grind into action again.

    Stop the count!
    Aren't they already suing him? Maybe he is beyond caring?
    He'll be in seclusion in Scotland, why should he worry?
    Defamation is a lot easier to action in English law than in the US. I don't know about Scots law.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 18,992
    HYUFD said:

    'Today must be the most critical non presidential election in modern American history'? What about the 1994, 2002, 2010 or 2018 midterms to name just a few. The 1994 midterms in particular was a major change in terms of the victory for Newt Gingrich's 'Contract with America' and I would suggest far more significant than the 2 Georgia Senate runoffs today.

    All these elections will determine is whether Joe Manchin or Susan Collins or Mitt Romney will have the casting vote in the Senate, depending on whether the Democrats win both, 1 or 0 of the seats up, not that major a change, indeed on some issues Collins is less conservative than Manchin is.

    Plus even if the Democrats fail to win the seats, previous Presidents like Nixon, Ford, Reagan and Bush 41 have had to deal with a Congress not fully controlled by their party throughout their presidencies so Biden would not be unique

    You completely ignore Mitch McConnell in this statement.

    The difference between evil piece of crap McConnell heading the Senate or wimpish piece of crap Schumer heading the Senate is night and day for Biden.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 50,909

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Another journalist who doesn't understand statistics. There is no evidence it is falling, as indicated by the confidence interval.
    Is that right?

    Surely there is some evidence it is falling but no certainty that it is due to the confidence interval?

    If you estimate that there is a 60% chance of A and 40% chance of B then surely there is some evidence for A.
    You cannot say with any confidence that it is falling. For that you need the downward trend to be statistically significant which is not the case here.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,108
    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I hope everyone's ready for the glacial Georgia vote counting machine to grind into action again.

    Stop the count!
    Aren't they already suing him? Maybe he is beyond caring?
    He'll be in seclusion in Scotland, why should he worry?
    Is he terrifically popular in Scotland? I thought there was a problem with a golf club of his.
    More his behaviour with the natives at all levels.

    The problem is that unless Mr T is genuinely movcing house he can't legally leave the airport - and neither can his entourage, and they can't all be moving house can they? Also he loses diplomatic immunity the next day.
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but as Trump's mother was born in the United Kingdom, does he not legally possess British citizenship by descent?
  • Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I hope everyone's ready for the glacial Georgia vote counting machine to grind into action again.

    Stop the count!
    Aren't they already suing him? Maybe he is beyond caring?
    He'll be in seclusion in Scotland, why should he worry?
    Is he terrifically popular in Scotland? I thought there was a problem with a golf club of his.
    More his behaviour with the natives at all levels.

    The problem is that unless Mr T is genuinely movcing house he can't legally leave the airport - and neither can his entourage, and they can't all be moving house can they? Also he loses diplomatic immunity the next day.
    He'll need a safe secure environment, I should think. Fortunately Scotland has the perfect spot.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-48582267

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 47,349
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Another journalist who doesn't understand statistics. There is no evidence it is falling, as indicated by the confidence interval.
    Is that right?

    Surely there is some evidence it is falling but no certainty that it is due to the confidence interval?

    If you estimate that there is a 60% chance of A and 40% chance of B then surely there is some evidence for A.
    You cannot say with any confidence that it is falling. For that you need the downward trend to be statistically significant which is not the case here.
    Indeed but there is evidence that it is. Still within margin of error but some evidence is there. Needs further confirmation.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,354
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Today must be the most critical non presidential election in modern American history'? What about the 1994, 2002, 2010 or 2018 midterms to name just a few. The 1994 midterms in particular was a major change in terms of the victory for Newt Gingrich's 'Contract with America' and I would suggest far more significant than the 2 Georgia Senate runoffs today.

    All these elections will determine is whether Joe Manchin or Susan Collins or Mitt Romney will have the casting vote in the Senate, depending on whether the Democrats win both, 1 or 0 of the seats up, not that major a change, indeed on some issues Collins is less conservative than Manchin is.

    Plus even if the Democrats fail to win the seats, previous Presidents like Nixon, Ford, Reagan and Bush 41 have had to deal with a Congress not fully controlled by their party throughout their presidencies so Biden would not be unique

    You completely ignore Mitch McConnell in this statement.

    The difference between evil piece of crap McConnell heading the Senate or wimpish piece of crap Schumer heading the Senate is night and day for Biden.
    Hyperbole.

    Biden and McConnell are friends. Mitch was the only Republican to attend the funeral of Joe's son. Yes they would spar and disagree but they would also strike deals. Joe Biden isn't Barack Obama and he knows how to win people over with the equivalent of fireside chats and backroom deals.

    What would be really interesting is a 49-51 split ... leaving Mitt Romney as the most powerful person in America after the President. If you get my drift.

  • rpjs said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Isn't spending much of the period between electoral cycles having legal battles over the result of the last election and the actions of those elected how the Roman Republic did it at the end many times? And it worked out great, I don't see the problem.
    Any minute now, Pence will look at the sky, declare that thunder makes the omens unfavourable and send the everyone home.....
    Look, nothing in the Constitution says you cannot appoint a Chief Augur, I'm just saying.
    The 9th and 10th Amendments says otherwise.
    I respectfully disagree. There are plenty of federal offices appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate that are not specifically provided for in the Constitution. They do have to be authorised by statute though. However, as auguries are clearly a religious practice, creating such an office would likely fall foul of the 1st Amendment though: "Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion".
    Ok you can have that.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 38,775


    Why was the meeting on Monday morning knowing that schools were going back that very morning?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 8,850

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I hope everyone's ready for the glacial Georgia vote counting machine to grind into action again.

    Stop the count!
    Aren't they already suing him? Maybe he is beyond caring?
    He'll be in seclusion in Scotland, why should he worry?
    Is he terrifically popular in Scotland? I thought there was a problem with a golf club of his.

    Edit: Perhaps this will motivate Schapps to close the borders.
    https://www.bbcamerica.com/anglophenia/2012/12/anti-trump-farmer-michael-forbes-wins-scotsman-of-the-year-award


  • Why was the meeting on Monday morning knowing that schools were going back that very morning?
    Boris Johnson displaying his legendary fatherly instincts once more.
  • rpjs said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I hope everyone's ready for the glacial Georgia vote counting machine to grind into action again.

    Stop the count!
    Aren't they already suing him? Maybe he is beyond caring?
    He'll be in seclusion in Scotland, why should he worry?
    Is he terrifically popular in Scotland? I thought there was a problem with a golf club of his.
    More his behaviour with the natives at all levels.

    The problem is that unless Mr T is genuinely movcing house he can't legally leave the airport - and neither can his entourage, and they can't all be moving house can they? Also he loses diplomatic immunity the next day.
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but as Trump's mother was born in the United Kingdom, does he not legally possess British citizenship by descent?
    rpjs said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I hope everyone's ready for the glacial Georgia vote counting machine to grind into action again.

    Stop the count!
    Aren't they already suing him? Maybe he is beyond caring?
    He'll be in seclusion in Scotland, why should he worry?
    Is he terrifically popular in Scotland? I thought there was a problem with a golf club of his.
    More his behaviour with the natives at all levels.

    The problem is that unless Mr T is genuinely movcing house he can't legally leave the airport - and neither can his entourage, and they can't all be moving house can they? Also he loses diplomatic immunity the next day.
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but as Trump's mother was born in the United Kingdom, does he not legally possess British citizenship by descent?
    Fake news.

    But close the effing border anyway.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 50,909
    .

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Another journalist who doesn't understand statistics. There is no evidence it is falling, as indicated by the confidence interval.
    Is that right?

    Surely there is some evidence it is falling but no certainty that it is due to the confidence interval?

    If you estimate that there is a 60% chance of A and 40% chance of B then surely there is some evidence for A.
    You cannot say with any confidence that it is falling. For that you need the downward trend to be statistically significant which is not the case here.
    Indeed but there is evidence that it is. Still within margin of error but some evidence is there. Needs further confirmation.
    Evidence usually has to be significant, which isn't the case. It could just as easily still be going up.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 10,870

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I hope everyone's ready for the glacial Georgia vote counting machine to grind into action again.

    Stop the count!
    Aren't they already suing him? Maybe he is beyond caring?
    He'll be in seclusion in Scotland, why should he worry?
    Is he terrifically popular in Scotland? I thought there was a problem with a golf club of his.
    More his behaviour with the natives at all levels.

    The problem is that unless Mr T is genuinely movcing house he can't legally leave the airport - and neither can his entourage, and they can't all be moving house can they? Also he loses diplomatic immunity the next day.
    He'll need a safe secure environment, I should think. Fortunately Scotland has the perfect spot.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-48582267

    The State Hospital at Carstairs may have some underused rooms.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 36,845
    Fleggggggg!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 10,115

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I hope everyone's ready for the glacial Georgia vote counting machine to grind into action again.

    Stop the count!
    Aren't they already suing him? Maybe he is beyond caring?
    He'll be in seclusion in Scotland, why should he worry?
    Is he terrifically popular in Scotland? I thought there was a problem with a golf club of his.
    More his behaviour with the natives at all levels.

    The problem is that unless Mr T is genuinely movcing house he can't legally leave the airport - and neither can his entourage, and they can't all be moving house can they? Also he loses diplomatic immunity the next day.
    Doesn't the US guarantee all their Presidents and cabinet officers lifelong diplomatic immunity?
    Diplomatic immunity can only be *granted* by the receiving country.

    There is a separate concept that Heads of State have immunity by virtue of their office. Which has a ton of caveats and gets the 4 figure per hour lawyers all excited.

    There is also the fun area of law regarding immunity for former Heads of State.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 47,349
    RobD said:

    .

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Another journalist who doesn't understand statistics. There is no evidence it is falling, as indicated by the confidence interval.
    Is that right?

    Surely there is some evidence it is falling but no certainty that it is due to the confidence interval?

    If you estimate that there is a 60% chance of A and 40% chance of B then surely there is some evidence for A.
    You cannot say with any confidence that it is falling. For that you need the downward trend to be statistically significant which is not the case here.
    Indeed but there is evidence that it is. Still within margin of error but some evidence is there. Needs further confirmation.
    Evidence usually has to be significant, which isn't the case. It could just as easily still be going up.
    It could still be going up but not just as easily.

    Quibbling over small distinctions though.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 583
    He can probably still afford the £30 fine.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 47,349
    Gaussian said:

    He can probably still afford the £30 fine.
    Are we sure? He's been struggling to pay his taxes.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 9,887



    Why was the meeting on Monday morning knowing that schools were going back that very morning?
    Cos Sunday morning was booked for talking bollocks on Marr.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 10,115
    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Isn't spending much of the period between electoral cycles having legal battles over the result of the last election and the actions of those elected how the Roman Republic did it at the end many times? And it worked out great, I don't see the problem.
    Any minute now, Pence will look at the sky, declare that thunder makes the omens unfavourable and send the everyone home.....
    Look, nothing in the Constitution says you cannot appoint a Chief Augur, I'm just saying.
    Don't give Mr Trump ideas ...
    I was thinking more of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Calpurnius_Bibulus
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 60,514
    I feel like Trump would need something like this to leave office with dignity

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibrahim_Prize
  • Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I hope everyone's ready for the glacial Georgia vote counting machine to grind into action again.

    Stop the count!
    Aren't they already suing him? Maybe he is beyond caring?
    He'll be in seclusion in Scotland, why should he worry?
    Is he terrifically popular in Scotland? I thought there was a problem with a golf club of his.
    More his behaviour with the natives at all levels.

    The problem is that unless Mr T is genuinely movcing house he can't legally leave the airport - and neither can his entourage, and they can't all be moving house can they? Also he loses diplomatic immunity the next day.
    Doesn't the US guarantee all their Presidents and cabinet officers lifelong diplomatic immunity?
    Diplomatic immunity can only be *granted* by the receiving country.

    There is a separate concept that Heads of State have immunity by virtue of their office. Which has a ton of caveats and gets the 4 figure per hour lawyers all excited.

    There is also the fun area of law regarding immunity for former Heads of State.
    But right now Trump has diplomatic immunity and pretty much every country has granted it to him, the worst they can do is revoke it and tell him to go back.

    That's how I read it in an article I read a while back.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 18,992
    I have a certain feeling Dom Cummings won't be on that list.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 15,846
    I feel i have a duty to working PBers to repeat my earlier post to safeguard them.

    I have developed my own 100% reliable Covid Test

    Result known in 10 secs

    Fart under the covers

    Place head under covers

    Waft covers

    If you cant smell it you have Covid if you can all is well even if it makes you cough
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 10,115
    dr_spyn said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I hope everyone's ready for the glacial Georgia vote counting machine to grind into action again.

    Stop the count!
    Aren't they already suing him? Maybe he is beyond caring?
    He'll be in seclusion in Scotland, why should he worry?
    Is he terrifically popular in Scotland? I thought there was a problem with a golf club of his.
    More his behaviour with the natives at all levels.

    The problem is that unless Mr T is genuinely movcing house he can't legally leave the airport - and neither can his entourage, and they can't all be moving house can they? Also he loses diplomatic immunity the next day.
    He'll need a safe secure environment, I should think. Fortunately Scotland has the perfect spot.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-48582267

    The State Hospital at Carstairs may have some underused rooms.
    Didn't they practically build a special suite at Greenock for Megrahi, for medical care reasons?
  • That thing in Pennsylvania is fabulous. What time is Congress certifying the presidential election tomorrow? I may have to watch on CNN.
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