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So it’s a 7 week lockdown for England – will this contain it at last? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited January 4 in General
imageSo it’s a 7 week lockdown for England – will this contain it at last? – politicalbetting.com

Almost everything, from how long this lockdown will last to what the government’s reputation will be at the end of it, now turns on how quickly the vaccine can be rolled out https://t.co/ERlYOtbODf

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 53,302
    edited January 4
    Prepare for its being well into March befote we really get out of lockdown....and then only back into T4/T3.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 371
    We will no doubt come out at half term... Too early...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 13,707
    He looks ill. Can't he sit in front of a camera without a Union Jack behind him?

    Does he think he's the Queen?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 60,514
    mwadams said:

    We will no doubt come out at half term... Too early...

    Don't areas have half term at different times? I don't have kids, so I'm perpetually surprised by school break periods.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 63,352
    We've acquired an Irish passport in our household now, the new horse still has free movement rights all over europe !
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 371

    Prepare for its being well into March befote we really get out of lockdown....and then only back into T4/T3.

    Optimism! That would indicate that sense prevails over political dither.

    Best thing now would be for the Tories to defenestrate Boris, put in an interim leader prepared to be the wasp cake for all the difficult decisions needed this year, and then claim the credit for sorting it out, with Boris taking the blame for past sins. They retire and someone runs through 2022-2024 rebuilding to the next election.

    Once I'd have said that sounds like too many leaders in too short a time... But these days?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 60,514
    Roger said:

    He looks ill. Can't he sit in front of a camera without a Union Jack behind him?

    Does he think he's the Queen?

    He always looks a little ill. No, because Starmer is going patriotic so now it is all flags all the time.

    And no, he thinks he's Churchill, everyone knows that.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 31,369
    Guardian: Since before Christmas, the government has trailed along haplessly in the wake of events, as if constantly surprised by them. The chaos over this week’s return to schools carried eerie echoes of the early spring. Then, as now, schools simply began to close their gates. Workplaces emptied, as the public grasped, more quickly than the government, what had to be done. This time round, Mr Johnson’s scientific advisers warned on 22 December that the exponential spread of infections meant that schools should remain closed and a national lockdown considered. The best form of crisis management is to anticipate and pre-empt, even if that means making unpopular decisions. But in Downing Street there is a persistent refusal to confront and act on the worst-case scenario before the worst has actually happened.

    The government’s capacity to endlessly repeat the same mistakes hardly inspires confidence. But for a time-limited period, as the population is vaccinated, it is right to batten down the hatches. Tough as the coming weeks will be, this is not the open-ended nightmare that began to unfold last February and March. It is just a pity that the government did not recognise that changed context and act sooner.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 15,678
    Roger said:

    He looks ill. Can't he sit in front of a camera without a Union Jack behind him?

    Does he think he's the Queen?

    Dorian Grey, but without the portrait.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 371
    kle4 said:

    mwadams said:

    We will no doubt come out at half term... Too early...

    Don't areas have half term at different times? I don't have kids, so I'm perpetually surprised by school break periods.
    Perhaps I should say "at the end of the latest half term".
  • Have told the kids they have already had their last day at their old schools. As I have had my last day as a freeman of England.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 371
    Pulpstar said:

    We've acquired an Irish passport in our household now, the new horse still has free movement rights all over europe !

    My partner and daughter are both in the process of getting their Irish passports. I'm the only non-European pleb in my household. 🙂
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 38,035
    Roger said:

    He looks ill. Can't he sit in front of a camera without a Union Jack behind him?

    Does he think he's the Queen?

    Starmer was sitting in front of the union jack today
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 11,407
    Roger said:

    He looks ill. Can't he sit in front of a camera without a Union Jack behind him?

    Does he think he's the Queen?

    What is it about the left and its objection to our flag?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 26,009
    Pulpstar said:

    We've acquired an Irish passport in our household now, the new horse still has free movement rights all over europe !

    Did you see the new charges on the Eurotunnel? Brutal.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 13,707
    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    He looks ill. Can't he sit in front of a camera without a Union Jack behind him?

    Does he think he's the Queen?

    He always looks a little ill. No, because Starmer is going patriotic so now it is all flags all the time.

    And no, he thinks he's Churchill, everyone knows that.
    Doesn't he know that at least half the country would like to stick it through his arras
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 8,690

    Roger said:

    He looks ill. Can't he sit in front of a camera without a Union Jack behind him?

    Does he think he's the Queen?

    Starmer was sitting in front of the union jack today
    It proves what we on the left already knew, Starmer is a Tory.

    You wouldn't catch Jezza selling out like that!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 15,678

    Roger said:

    He looks ill. Can't he sit in front of a camera without a Union Jack behind him?

    Does he think he's the Queen?

    Starmer was sitting in front of the union jack today
    Boris copies again?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 15,312
    kinabalu said:

    Well I picked a great time to quit smoking 🙏

    And I picked a fine day to start dry January.

    (I know... but there were a few opened bottles that needed finishing off.)
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 8,498
    Yes it will very likely "contain" it, probably reduce it a bit. It wont get us down to the low levels of summer though.

    My guess

    Lockdown till first week of March
    Tier 3/4 for most of March & April
    Tier 1/2/3 for May
    Local lockdowns from June
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 38,035

    Roger said:

    He looks ill. Can't he sit in front of a camera without a Union Jack behind him?

    Does he think he's the Queen?

    Starmer was sitting in front of the union jack today
    It proves what we on the left already knew, Starmer is a Tory.

    You wouldn't catch Jezza selling out like that!
    Starmer wants to win elections
  • Have told the kids they have already had their last day at their old schools. As I have had my last day as a freeman of England.

    Good luck with the move - are you coming to the beautiful Borders? Or some lesser part of Scotland.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 17,156
    Floater said:

    Roger said:

    He looks ill. Can't he sit in front of a camera without a Union Jack behind him?

    Does he think he's the Queen?

    What is it about the left and its objection to our flag?
    We gauche find it gauche.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 53,302
    The world is very strange at the moment....Farage is now praising Tony Blair...claiming he forced government hand into going for the single dose strategy.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 35,791

    The world is very strange at the moment....Farage is now praising Tony Blair...claiming he forced government hand into going for the single dose strategy.

    Make Britannia Cool Again!
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 5,043

    Roger said:

    He looks ill. Can't he sit in front of a camera without a Union Jack behind him?

    Does he think he's the Queen?

    Starmer was sitting in front of the union jack today
    It proves what we on the left already knew, Starmer is a Tory.

    You wouldn't catch Jezza selling out like that!
    Certainly not. Jezza would have had a Palestinian flag.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 13,707

    Roger said:

    He looks ill. Can't he sit in front of a camera without a Union Jack behind him?

    Does he think he's the Queen?

    Starmer was sitting in front of the union jack today
    That would have been even worse than Johnson. It might have made me actually vomit.

    Fortunately I missed it.

    The future's Bright (ish) The Future's Orange.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 13,707

    The world is very strange at the moment....Farage is now praising Tony Blair...claiming he forced government hand into going for the single dose strategy.

    He did!

    What wouldn't we give to have Tony around now.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 53,302
    Foxy said:
    Would you expect anything less....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 47,349
    Roger said:

    He looks ill. Can't he sit in front of a camera without a Union Jack behind him?

    Does he think he's the Queen?

    Perhaps he thinks he's the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 9,887

    The world is very strange at the moment....Farage is now praising Tony Blair...claiming he forced government hand into going for the single dose strategy.

    "A new day has dawned, has it not?"
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 8,335
    Replace Hancock with Hunt tomorrow.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 20,920

    The world is very strange at the moment....Farage is now praising Tony Blair...claiming he forced government hand into going for the single dose strategy.

    Make Britannia Cool Again!
    Where's Geri Halliwell's gusset when we need it?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 15,846

    Roger said:

    He looks ill. Can't he sit in front of a camera without a Union Jack behind him?

    Does he think he's the Queen?

    Starmer was sitting in front of the union jack today
    It proves what we on the left already knew, Starmer is a Tory.

    You wouldn't catch Jezza selling out like that!
    All hail Sir Abstainalot
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 38,035
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    He looks ill. Can't he sit in front of a camera without a Union Jack behind him?

    Does he think he's the Queen?

    Starmer was sitting in front of the union jack today
    That would have been even worse than Johnson. It might have made me actually vomit.

    Fortunately I missed it.

    The future's Bright (ish) The Future's Orange.
    Maybe Starmer is going to speak in front of it regularly

    He does want to win elections

  • Have told the kids they have already had their last day at their old schools. As I have had my last day as a freeman of England.

    Good luck with the move - are you coming to the beautiful Borders? Or some lesser part of Scotland.
    The north east
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 5,043
    Roger said:

    The world is very strange at the moment....Farage is now praising Tony Blair...claiming he forced government hand into going for the single dose strategy.

    He did!

    What wouldn't we give to have Tony around now.
    Just as a point of order, the strategy of giving a single dose is widely known (both in the general context of two dose vaccines and in the specific context of COVID) & had been discussed before.

    Blair took the idea and he presented it as his own.

    Of course, if Blair wanted to be really generous ... he could have given the idea to SKS to present & popularize.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 47,349

    Roger said:

    The world is very strange at the moment....Farage is now praising Tony Blair...claiming he forced government hand into going for the single dose strategy.

    He did!

    What wouldn't we give to have Tony around now.
    Just as a point of order, the strategy of giving a single dose is widely known (both in the general context of two dose vaccines and in the specific context of COVID) & had been discussed before.

    Blair took the idea and he presented it as his own.

    Of course, if Blair wanted to be really generous ... he could have given the idea to SKS to present & popularize.
    And he would have taken it and abstained until he could see in hindsight which was best.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 13,707

    Roger said:

    He looks ill. Can't he sit in front of a camera without a Union Jack behind him?

    Does he think he's the Queen?

    Starmer was sitting in front of the union jack today
    It proves what we on the left already knew, Starmer is a Tory.

    You wouldn't catch Jezza selling out like that!
    It's worse than that. It shows he's a phoney like Johnson
  • Have told the kids they have already had their last day at their old schools. As I have had my last day as a freeman of England.

    Good luck with the move - are you coming to the beautiful Borders? Or some lesser part of Scotland.
    The north east
    That's a good bit, if a tad brisk in the winter months. Enjoy!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 44,520

    Roger said:

    The world is very strange at the moment....Farage is now praising Tony Blair...claiming he forced government hand into going for the single dose strategy.

    He did!

    What wouldn't we give to have Tony around now.
    Of course, if Blair wanted to be really generous ... he could have given the idea to SKS to present & popularize.


  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 47,349
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    He looks ill. Can't he sit in front of a camera without a Union Jack behind him?

    Does he think he's the Queen?

    Starmer was sitting in front of the union jack today
    It proves what we on the left already knew, Starmer is a Tory.

    You wouldn't catch Jezza selling out like that!
    It's worse than that. It shows he's a phoney like Johnson
    I don't think Johnson is a phoney when as PM he sits in front of a flag. He probably finds it perfectly normal, as does Macron.

    Starmer on the other hand probably is a phoney doing it unlike them.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 36,845
    Funny times. We were being assured just this morning by the Boris-haters that we'd have to wait days for him to announce what he has announced today.

    We now stand a good chance of coming out of Covid weeks before many EU countries. If Boris pulls that off, there is going to be a wailing and a gnashing of teeth and rending of garments of Biblical proportions....

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 47,349
    RobD said:

    Roger said:

    He looks ill. Can't he sit in front of a camera without a Union Jack behind him?

    Does he think he's the Queen?

    What a tedious attack line. It'd resonate more if you were equally damning of Macron, Merkel etc. for appearing in front of theirs.
    He wouldn't attack Macron for appearing in front of his flag, since he doesn't hate France.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 50,909

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    He looks ill. Can't he sit in front of a camera without a Union Jack behind him?

    Does he think he's the Queen?

    Starmer was sitting in front of the union jack today
    It proves what we on the left already knew, Starmer is a Tory.

    You wouldn't catch Jezza selling out like that!
    It's worse than that. It shows he's a phoney like Johnson
    I don't think Johnson is a phoney when as PM he sits in front of a flag. He probably finds it perfectly normal, as does Macron.

    Starmer on the other hand probably is a phoney doing it unlike them.
    I've seen no evidence Starmer hates Britain or anything like that. He's a knight of the realm for goodness sake :D
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 5,830
    edited January 4
    Is MarqueeMark one of Boris’s lovers?

    Even Big G and Carlotta make the occasional criticism.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 47,349
    RobD said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    He looks ill. Can't he sit in front of a camera without a Union Jack behind him?

    Does he think he's the Queen?

    Starmer was sitting in front of the union jack today
    It proves what we on the left already knew, Starmer is a Tory.

    You wouldn't catch Jezza selling out like that!
    It's worse than that. It shows he's a phoney like Johnson
    I don't think Johnson is a phoney when as PM he sits in front of a flag. He probably finds it perfectly normal, as does Macron.

    Starmer on the other hand probably is a phoney doing it unlike them.
    I've seen no evidence Starmer hates Britain or anything like that. He's a knight of the realm for goodness sake :D
    He's just prepared to serve under those who do hate Britain?
  • CrabbieCrabbie Posts: 47

    Roger said:

    The world is very strange at the moment....Farage is now praising Tony Blair...claiming he forced government hand into going for the single dose strategy.

    He did!

    What wouldn't we give to have Tony around now.
    Just as a point of order, the strategy of giving a single dose is widely known (both in the general context of two dose vaccines and in the specific context of COVID) & had been discussed before.

    Blair took the idea and he presented it as his own.
    Quite right. Blair is out of order. In the future he should only suggest ideas where he has done the primary research himself.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 5,830

    RobD said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    He looks ill. Can't he sit in front of a camera without a Union Jack behind him?

    Does he think he's the Queen?

    Starmer was sitting in front of the union jack today
    It proves what we on the left already knew, Starmer is a Tory.

    You wouldn't catch Jezza selling out like that!
    It's worse than that. It shows he's a phoney like Johnson
    I don't think Johnson is a phoney when as PM he sits in front of a flag. He probably finds it perfectly normal, as does Macron.

    Starmer on the other hand probably is a phoney doing it unlike them.
    I've seen no evidence Starmer hates Britain or anything like that. He's a knight of the realm for goodness sake :D
    He's just prepared to serve under those who do hate Britain?
    Surely Boris hates Britain?
    He has made it poorer, weaker, increased separatist sentiment; and his dithering has probably contributed to tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 5,043

    Funny times. We were being assured just this morning by the Boris-haters that we'd have to wait days for him to announce what he has announced today.

    We now stand a good chance of coming out of Covid weeks before many EU countries. If Boris pulls that off, there is going to be a wailing and a gnashing of teeth and rending of garments of Biblical proportions....

    It is the job of a politician to be deep in the shit, yet come up smelling of roses.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 60,514
    Crabbie said:

    Roger said:

    The world is very strange at the moment....Farage is now praising Tony Blair...claiming he forced government hand into going for the single dose strategy.

    He did!

    What wouldn't we give to have Tony around now.
    Just as a point of order, the strategy of giving a single dose is widely known (both in the general context of two dose vaccines and in the specific context of COVID) & had been discussed before.

    Blair took the idea and he presented it as his own.
    Quite right. Blair is out of order. In the future he should only suggest ideas where he has done the primary research himself.
    Fair point, but the level of ascribing of the government changing position due to his pressure is likely pushing it a bit. Given how slowly government moves they were probably looking at it from other suggestions before he raised it, so his contributions may be part of the pressure, but he cannot crow too much.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 34,793

    Yes it will very likely "contain" it, probably reduce it a bit. It wont get us down to the low levels of summer though.

    My guess

    Lockdown till first week of March
    Tier 3/4 for most of March & April
    Tier 1/2/3 for May
    Local lockdowns from June

    Don't forget that sunny weather helps drive R down irrespective of anything else: people being outside more means the virus spreads less. Hence that Sweden saw cases decline sharply without any kind of lockdown
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 12,989
    Don't worry folks. Keir will be swapping it for a red flag the day he enters Number 10.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 47,349

    RobD said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    He looks ill. Can't he sit in front of a camera without a Union Jack behind him?

    Does he think he's the Queen?

    Starmer was sitting in front of the union jack today
    It proves what we on the left already knew, Starmer is a Tory.

    You wouldn't catch Jezza selling out like that!
    It's worse than that. It shows he's a phoney like Johnson
    I don't think Johnson is a phoney when as PM he sits in front of a flag. He probably finds it perfectly normal, as does Macron.

    Starmer on the other hand probably is a phoney doing it unlike them.
    I've seen no evidence Starmer hates Britain or anything like that. He's a knight of the realm for goodness sake :D
    He's just prepared to serve under those who do hate Britain?
    Surely Boris hates Britain?
    He has made it poorer, weaker, increased separatist sentiment; and his dithering has probably contributed to tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths.
    Oh push the other one.

    His "dithering" government has vaccinated more than the rest of the continent put together. Why is that if the UK is dithering?

    His "dithering" government has set a rod for 14 million people to have been vaccinated by 14 February; Macron has set an ambitious target for 1 million by 31 January.

    Dithering my arse.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 12,989

    RobD said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    He looks ill. Can't he sit in front of a camera without a Union Jack behind him?

    Does he think he's the Queen?

    Starmer was sitting in front of the union jack today
    It proves what we on the left already knew, Starmer is a Tory.

    You wouldn't catch Jezza selling out like that!
    It's worse than that. It shows he's a phoney like Johnson
    I don't think Johnson is a phoney when as PM he sits in front of a flag. He probably finds it perfectly normal, as does Macron.

    Starmer on the other hand probably is a phoney doing it unlike them.
    I've seen no evidence Starmer hates Britain or anything like that. He's a knight of the realm for goodness sake :D
    He's just prepared to serve under those who do hate Britain?
    That's quite a strong accusation to make against the Queen!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 8,690

    Roger said:

    He looks ill. Can't he sit in front of a camera without a Union Jack behind him?

    Does he think he's the Queen?

    Perhaps he thinks he's the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?
    A delusion of grandeur.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 60,514

    RobD said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    He looks ill. Can't he sit in front of a camera without a Union Jack behind him?

    Does he think he's the Queen?

    Starmer was sitting in front of the union jack today
    It proves what we on the left already knew, Starmer is a Tory.

    You wouldn't catch Jezza selling out like that!
    It's worse than that. It shows he's a phoney like Johnson
    I don't think Johnson is a phoney when as PM he sits in front of a flag. He probably finds it perfectly normal, as does Macron.

    Starmer on the other hand probably is a phoney doing it unlike them.
    I've seen no evidence Starmer hates Britain or anything like that. He's a knight of the realm for goodness sake :D
    He's just prepared to serve under those who do hate Britain?
    Surely Boris hates Britain?
    He has made it poorer, weaker, increased separatist sentiment; and his dithering has probably contributed to tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths.
    Oh push the other one.

    His "dithering" government has vaccinated more than the rest of the continent put together. Why is that if the UK is dithering?

    His "dithering" government has set a rod for 14 million people to have been vaccinated by 14 February; Macron has set an ambitious target for 1 million by 31 January.

    Dithering my arse.
    The judgement on dithering may well take in more than just the vaccination policy and procurement. It may or may not be a fair charge, but a good job on vaccination alone doesn't disprove it.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 5,043
    Crabbie said:

    Roger said:

    The world is very strange at the moment....Farage is now praising Tony Blair...claiming he forced government hand into going for the single dose strategy.

    He did!

    What wouldn't we give to have Tony around now.
    Just as a point of order, the strategy of giving a single dose is widely known (both in the general context of two dose vaccines and in the specific context of COVID) & had been discussed before.

    Blair took the idea and he presented it as his own.
    Quite right. Blair is out of order. In the future he should only suggest ideas where he has done the primary research himself.
    Blair should credit ideas properly. Just because ideas are free as air, doesn't mean you can just nick 'em.

    Blair could have done SKS -- and by extension the Labour party -- a bit of good, but he chose not to.

    It so happens I think Blair has had a good pandemic, but it is foolish to believe that he is mainly interested in anyone or anything other than Blair.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 5,830
    edited January 4

    RobD said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    He looks ill. Can't he sit in front of a camera without a Union Jack behind him?

    Does he think he's the Queen?

    Starmer was sitting in front of the union jack today
    It proves what we on the left already knew, Starmer is a Tory.

    You wouldn't catch Jezza selling out like that!
    It's worse than that. It shows he's a phoney like Johnson
    I don't think Johnson is a phoney when as PM he sits in front of a flag. He probably finds it perfectly normal, as does Macron.

    Starmer on the other hand probably is a phoney doing it unlike them.
    I've seen no evidence Starmer hates Britain or anything like that. He's a knight of the realm for goodness sake :D
    He's just prepared to serve under those who do hate Britain?
    Surely Boris hates Britain?
    He has made it poorer, weaker, increased separatist sentiment; and his dithering has probably contributed to tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths.
    Oh push the other one.

    His "dithering" government has vaccinated more than the rest of the continent put together. Why is that if the UK is dithering?

    His "dithering" government has set a rod for 14 million people to have been vaccinated by 14 February; Macron has set an ambitious target for 1 million by 31 January.

    Dithering my arse.
    I would rather not think about Boris dithering your arse; some fantasies are too candid to be shared on PB.

    He was late to lockdown in March.
    Relaxed too early in June.
    Late to respond in November.
    All too lax in December.
    And here we are again in January; late again.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 36,845

    Funny times. We were being assured just this morning by the Boris-haters that we'd have to wait days for him to announce what he has announced today.

    We now stand a good chance of coming out of Covid weeks before many EU countries. If Boris pulls that off, there is going to be a wailing and a gnashing of teeth and rending of garments of Biblical proportions....

    It is the job of a politician to be deep in the shit, yet come up smelling of roses.
    It's the route for a successful one.

    Jury's out until February/March; but there are plenty here so obviously terrified that he might just pull it off.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 1,269
    edited January 4
    rcs1000 said:

    Yes it will very likely "contain" it, probably reduce it a bit. It wont get us down to the low levels of summer though.

    My guess

    Lockdown till first week of March
    Tier 3/4 for most of March & April
    Tier 1/2/3 for May
    Local lockdowns from June

    Don't forget that sunny weather helps drive R down irrespective of anything else: people being outside more means the virus spreads less. Hence that Sweden saw cases decline sharply without any kind of lockdown
    That's true, but on the flipside we didn't have the newer more transmissible variant of the virus last summer. Its lowered R in sunny weather may still be considerably higher than what we'd expect from the previous version - we don't know how that's going to be a factor.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 5,155

    Funny times. We were being assured just this morning by the Boris-haters that we'd have to wait days for him to announce what he has announced today.

    We now stand a good chance of coming out of Covid weeks before many EU countries. If Boris pulls that off, there is going to be a wailing and a gnashing of teeth and rending of garments of Biblical proportions....

    It was variously Boris himself, and Boris sidekicks briefing the Telegraph, who indicated that it would be days before a decision was made. Let's all celebrate his inability to formulate a plan and stick to it for three minutes.

    "Almost the only people who think Johnson a nice guy are those who do not know him." Max Hastings.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 47,349
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    He looks ill. Can't he sit in front of a camera without a Union Jack behind him?

    Does he think he's the Queen?

    Starmer was sitting in front of the union jack today
    It proves what we on the left already knew, Starmer is a Tory.

    You wouldn't catch Jezza selling out like that!
    It's worse than that. It shows he's a phoney like Johnson
    I don't think Johnson is a phoney when as PM he sits in front of a flag. He probably finds it perfectly normal, as does Macron.

    Starmer on the other hand probably is a phoney doing it unlike them.
    I've seen no evidence Starmer hates Britain or anything like that. He's a knight of the realm for goodness sake :D
    He's just prepared to serve under those who do hate Britain?
    Surely Boris hates Britain?
    He has made it poorer, weaker, increased separatist sentiment; and his dithering has probably contributed to tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths.
    Oh push the other one.

    His "dithering" government has vaccinated more than the rest of the continent put together. Why is that if the UK is dithering?

    His "dithering" government has set a rod for 14 million people to have been vaccinated by 14 February; Macron has set an ambitious target for 1 million by 31 January.

    Dithering my arse.
    The judgement on dithering may well take in more than just the vaccination policy and procurement. It may or may not be a fair charge, but a good job on vaccination alone doesn't disprove it.
    The vaccination programme is the only endgame to this. It absolutely the #1 ultimate issue above all else.

    The world's three biggest priorities must be vaccination, vaccination, vaccination.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 8,498
    rcs1000 said:

    Yes it will very likely "contain" it, probably reduce it a bit. It wont get us down to the low levels of summer though.

    My guess

    Lockdown till first week of March
    Tier 3/4 for most of March & April
    Tier 1/2/3 for May
    Local lockdowns from June

    Don't forget that sunny weather helps drive R down irrespective of anything else: people being outside more means the virus spreads less. Hence that Sweden saw cases decline sharply without any kind of lockdown
    Agreed and part of the reason I am more optimistic than most.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 47,349

    RobD said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    He looks ill. Can't he sit in front of a camera without a Union Jack behind him?

    Does he think he's the Queen?

    Starmer was sitting in front of the union jack today
    It proves what we on the left already knew, Starmer is a Tory.

    You wouldn't catch Jezza selling out like that!
    It's worse than that. It shows he's a phoney like Johnson
    I don't think Johnson is a phoney when as PM he sits in front of a flag. He probably finds it perfectly normal, as does Macron.

    Starmer on the other hand probably is a phoney doing it unlike them.
    I've seen no evidence Starmer hates Britain or anything like that. He's a knight of the realm for goodness sake :D
    He's just prepared to serve under those who do hate Britain?
    Surely Boris hates Britain?
    He has made it poorer, weaker, increased separatist sentiment; and his dithering has probably contributed to tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths.
    Oh push the other one.

    His "dithering" government has vaccinated more than the rest of the continent put together. Why is that if the UK is dithering?

    His "dithering" government has set a rod for 14 million people to have been vaccinated by 14 February; Macron has set an ambitious target for 1 million by 31 January.

    Dithering my arse.
    I would rather not think about Boris dithering your arse; some fantasies are too candid to be shared on PB.

    He was late to lockdown in March.
    Relaxed too early in June.
    Late to respond in November.
    All too lax in December.
    And here we are again in January; late again.
    Yes here we are in January with more vaccinated than the rest of the continent put together. 🤔

    He's doing a better job than Merkel let alone Macron.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 13,707
    "I WANT a Prime Minister who takes embarrassing decisions..."

    Anyone think Jeremy Hunt might be damning with faint praise ?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 5,830
    Kamala Harris will never be President

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 36,845

    Is MarqueeMark one of Boris’s lovers?

    Even Big G and Carlotta make the occasional criticism.

    I have said loudly that Boris is a complete twat for the way he has been taken in on his energy policy.

    But on Covid, he is no worse than many other world leaders - and may yet prove to be well ahead of most. Today should give huge hope for that.

    Surely, you want him to be ahead of most world leaders in defeating Covid?

    And once more, with conviction.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 9,887
    Things going badly in Alberta. After the bloke in Ontario it makes our lot look good.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/04/canada-politicians-ignore-holiday-travel-advice
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 2,966
    IshmaelZ said:

    Funny times. We were being assured just this morning by the Boris-haters that we'd have to wait days for him to announce what he has announced today.

    We now stand a good chance of coming out of Covid weeks before many EU countries. If Boris pulls that off, there is going to be a wailing and a gnashing of teeth and rending of garments of Biblical proportions....

    It was variously Boris himself, and Boris sidekicks briefing the Telegraph, who indicated that it would be days before a decision was made. Let's all celebrate his inability to formulate a plan and stick to it for three minutes.

    "Almost the only people who think Johnson a nice guy are those who do not know him." Max Hastings.
    It would be fun to read some similarly-spiteful barbs about Mr. Hastings, but sadly no one seems to have given enough of a shit about him to make any...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 44,520
    MRDA

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 5,830

    Is MarqueeMark one of Boris’s lovers?

    Even Big G and Carlotta make the occasional criticism.

    I have said loudly that Boris is a complete twat for the way he has been taken in on his energy policy.

    But on Covid, he is no worse than many other world leaders - and may yet prove to be well ahead of most. Today should give huge hope for that.

    Surely, you want him to be ahead of most world leaders in defeating Covid?

    And once more, with conviction.
    If we can deliver the plan he outlined this evening (his best performance to date), I will of course be delighted.

    It just surprises me how much Boris cock-smoking there is on this forum in opposition to all evidence (save his continued relative buoyancy in the polls).
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 8,690

    Funny times. We were being assured just this morning by the Boris-haters that we'd have to wait days for him to announce what he has announced today.

    We now stand a good chance of coming out of Covid weeks before many EU countries. If Boris pulls that off, there is going to be a wailing and a gnashing of teeth and rending of garments of Biblical proportions....

    It is the job of a politician to be deep in the shit, yet come up smelling of roses.
    It's the route for a successful one.

    Jury's out until February/March; but there are plenty here so obviously terrified that he might just pull it off.
    What a daft assumption to make.

    Boris detractors are terrified Johnson will be the UK Prime Minister to eventually beat Covid? Clearly we would all prefer to die of Coronavirus to prove him wrong.

    Hats off to Johnson for the procurement of the vaccine. Hats off for little else.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 47,349

    MRDA

    What can you say? 🤦🏻‍♂️
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 5,155

    IshmaelZ said:

    Funny times. We were being assured just this morning by the Boris-haters that we'd have to wait days for him to announce what he has announced today.

    We now stand a good chance of coming out of Covid weeks before many EU countries. If Boris pulls that off, there is going to be a wailing and a gnashing of teeth and rending of garments of Biblical proportions....

    It was variously Boris himself, and Boris sidekicks briefing the Telegraph, who indicated that it would be days before a decision was made. Let's all celebrate his inability to formulate a plan and stick to it for three minutes.

    "Almost the only people who think Johnson a nice guy are those who do not know him." Max Hastings.
    It would be fun to read some similarly-spiteful barbs about Mr. Hastings, but sadly no one seems to have given enough of a shit about him to make any...
    Just for the data point, have you met the PM?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 47,349

    Funny times. We were being assured just this morning by the Boris-haters that we'd have to wait days for him to announce what he has announced today.

    We now stand a good chance of coming out of Covid weeks before many EU countries. If Boris pulls that off, there is going to be a wailing and a gnashing of teeth and rending of garments of Biblical proportions....

    It is the job of a politician to be deep in the shit, yet come up smelling of roses.
    It's the route for a successful one.

    Jury's out until February/March; but there are plenty here so obviously terrified that he might just pull it off.
    What a daft assumption to make.

    Boris detractors are terrified Johnson will be the UK Prime Minister to eventually beat Covid? Clearly we would all prefer to die of Coronavirus to prove him wrong.

    Hats off to Johnson for the procurement of the vaccine. Hats off for little else.
    Hats off for the most important issue of the past 12 months?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 13,707

    Is MarqueeMark one of Boris’s lovers?

    Even Big G and Carlotta make the occasional criticism.

    There are more than a few on here. In the words of our own DuraAce "He'd crawl over broken glass to drink Boris's bath water..."
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 36,845
    IshmaelZ said:

    Funny times. We were being assured just this morning by the Boris-haters that we'd have to wait days for him to announce what he has announced today.

    We now stand a good chance of coming out of Covid weeks before many EU countries. If Boris pulls that off, there is going to be a wailing and a gnashing of teeth and rending of garments of Biblical proportions....

    It was variously Boris himself, and Boris sidekicks briefing the Telegraph, who indicated that it would be days before a decision was made. Let's all celebrate his inability to formulate a plan and stick to it for three minutes.

    "Almost the only people who think Johnson a nice guy are those who do not know him." Max Hastings.
    Who the fuck wants a "nice" Prime Minister? If it is a question of us or the Germans taking delivery of the next batch of the vaccine, this is who I want going in on behalf of our NHS:

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 9,887

    Funny times. We were being assured just this morning by the Boris-haters that we'd have to wait days for him to announce what he has announced today.

    We now stand a good chance of coming out of Covid weeks before many EU countries. If Boris pulls that off, there is going to be a wailing and a gnashing of teeth and rending of garments of Biblical proportions....

    It is the job of a politician to be deep in the shit, yet come up smelling of roses.
    It's the route for a successful one.

    Jury's out until February/March; but there are plenty here so obviously terrified that he might just pull it off.
    What a daft assumption to make.

    Boris detractors are terrified Johnson will be the UK Prime Minister to eventually beat Covid? Clearly we would all prefer to die of Coronavirus to prove him wrong.

    Hats off to Johnson for the procurement of the vaccine. Hats off for little else.
    Jeez. He's got till 2024. If he isn't the PM to beat Covid then we've all got far bigger problems.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 36,845

    Is MarqueeMark one of Boris’s lovers?

    Even Big G and Carlotta make the occasional criticism.

    I have said loudly that Boris is a complete twat for the way he has been taken in on his energy policy.

    But on Covid, he is no worse than many other world leaders - and may yet prove to be well ahead of most. Today should give huge hope for that.

    Surely, you want him to be ahead of most world leaders in defeating Covid?

    And once more, with conviction.
    If we can deliver the plan he outlined this evening (his best performance to date), I will of course be delighted.

    It just surprises me how much Boris cock-smoking there is on this forum in opposition to all evidence (save his continued relative buoyancy in the polls).
    It never surprises me how much spite there is on here towards a PM who made fools of most of the bettors on this site - and who lost money because they could never seen him as a winner.

    Mwhahahahahaha!
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 2,966
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Funny times. We were being assured just this morning by the Boris-haters that we'd have to wait days for him to announce what he has announced today.

    We now stand a good chance of coming out of Covid weeks before many EU countries. If Boris pulls that off, there is going to be a wailing and a gnashing of teeth and rending of garments of Biblical proportions....

    It was variously Boris himself, and Boris sidekicks briefing the Telegraph, who indicated that it would be days before a decision was made. Let's all celebrate his inability to formulate a plan and stick to it for three minutes.

    "Almost the only people who think Johnson a nice guy are those who do not know him." Max Hastings.
    It would be fun to read some similarly-spiteful barbs about Mr. Hastings, but sadly no one seems to have given enough of a shit about him to make any...
    Just for the data point, have you met the PM?
    I have indeed. Although most of my information about him comes from people who knew him much better, and it doesn't bear out Hastings' snide nonsense.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 15,312
    Wn't she be ex-Senator Loeffler by then?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 13,707

    Roger said:

    The world is very strange at the moment....Farage is now praising Tony Blair...claiming he forced government hand into going for the single dose strategy.

    He did!

    What wouldn't we give to have Tony around now.
    Just as a point of order, the strategy of giving a single dose is widely known (both in the general context of two dose vaccines and in the specific context of COVID) & had been discussed before.

    Blair took the idea and he presented it as his own.

    Of course, if Blair wanted to be really generous ... he could have given the idea to SKS to present & popularize.
    I first heard him say it on Boxing Day and I hadn't heard anyone say it before that.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 8,498

    Is MarqueeMark one of Boris’s lovers?

    Even Big G and Carlotta make the occasional criticism.

    I have said loudly that Boris is a complete twat for the way he has been taken in on his energy policy.

    But on Covid, he is no worse than many other world leaders - and may yet prove to be well ahead of most. Today should give huge hope for that.

    Surely, you want him to be ahead of most world leaders in defeating Covid?

    And once more, with conviction.
    If we can deliver the plan he outlined this evening (his best performance to date), I will of course be delighted.

    It just surprises me how much Boris cock-smoking there is on this forum in opposition to all evidence (save his continued relative buoyancy in the polls).
    It never surprises me how much spite there is on here towards a PM who made fools of most of the bettors on this site - and who lost money because they could never seen him as a winner.

    Mwhahahahahaha!
    Really? I would be surprised if most bettors on here dont win every year given the quality of tips available. The vast majority of us were on a big Tory win in 2019 as it was clear value based on the numbers, not because of our political views one way or the other.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 81,377
    edited January 4

    Roger said:

    He looks ill. Can't he sit in front of a camera without a Union Jack behind him?

    Does he think he's the Queen?

    Starmer was sitting in front of the union jack today
    It proves what we on the left already knew, Starmer is a Tory.

    You wouldn't catch Jezza selling out like that!
    Attlee, Blair, even Gordon Brown saw no problem posing with the Union Jack and as patriots, Starmer knows to become PM he must do the same.

    Corbyn looked like he would rather wave the Irish Tricolour or the Palestinian, Cuban or Iranian flags than his own and the voters reacted accordingly and handed him a landslide defeat
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 81,377

    Wn't she be ex-Senator Loeffler by then?
    The vote count will almost certainly not be completed in Georgia by the end of Wednesday when Congress certifies the EC votes
  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 49

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Funny times. We were being assured just this morning by the Boris-haters that we'd have to wait days for him to announce what he has announced today.

    We now stand a good chance of coming out of Covid weeks before many EU countries. If Boris pulls that off, there is going to be a wailing and a gnashing of teeth and rending of garments of Biblical proportions....

    It was variously Boris himself, and Boris sidekicks briefing the Telegraph, who indicated that it would be days before a decision was made. Let's all celebrate his inability to formulate a plan and stick to it for three minutes.

    "Almost the only people who think Johnson a nice guy are those who do not know him." Max Hastings.
    It would be fun to read some similarly-spiteful barbs about Mr. Hastings, but sadly no one seems to have given enough of a shit about him to make any...
    Just for the data point, have you met the PM?
    I have indeed. Although most of my information about him comes from people who knew him much better, and it doesn't bear out Hastings' snide nonsense.
    I know several people who were on the GLA when he was mayor, and the only way their opinions differ from Hastings' is that they are more disparaging of him.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 36,845
    IshmaelZ said:

    Is MarqueeMark one of Boris’s lovers?

    Even Big G and Carlotta make the occasional criticism.

    I have said loudly that Boris is a complete twat for the way he has been taken in on his energy policy.

    But on Covid, he is no worse than many other world leaders - and may yet prove to be well ahead of most. Today should give huge hope for that.

    Surely, you want him to be ahead of most world leaders in defeating Covid?

    And once more, with conviction.
    If we can deliver the plan he outlined this evening (his best performance to date), I will of course be delighted.

    It just surprises me how much Boris cock-smoking there is on this forum in opposition to all evidence (save his continued relative buoyancy in the polls).
    What is really fucking tiresome is the suggestion that if you think Johnson is a bit of an arse, you must secretly hate your country and want everyone in it to die horribly.
    "bit of an arse"? There are people on here tonight who have called for our freely elected PM with an 80 seat majority to be swinging on a rope beneath a London bridge.

    You do not secretly hate your country.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 44,520
    That should help get the Dems out in Ga.....
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 24,349
    IshmaelZ said:

    Is MarqueeMark one of Boris’s lovers?

    Even Big G and Carlotta make the occasional criticism.

    I have said loudly that Boris is a complete twat for the way he has been taken in on his energy policy.

    But on Covid, he is no worse than many other world leaders - and may yet prove to be well ahead of most. Today should give huge hope for that.

    Surely, you want him to be ahead of most world leaders in defeating Covid?

    And once more, with conviction.
    If we can deliver the plan he outlined this evening (his best performance to date), I will of course be delighted.

    It just surprises me how much Boris cock-smoking there is on this forum in opposition to all evidence (save his continued relative buoyancy in the polls).
    What is really fucking tiresome is the suggestion that if you think Johnson is a bit of an arse, you must secretly hate your country and want everyone in it to die horribly.
    Now you come to mention it..
  • RogerRoger Posts: 13,707
    RobD said:

    Roger said:

    He looks ill. Can't he sit in front of a camera without a Union Jack behind him?

    Does he think he's the Queen?

    What a tedious attack line. It'd resonate more if you were equally damning of Macron, Merkel etc. for appearing in front of theirs.
    Even Tony when announcing we were going to war managed to talk to the nation without a set of flags behind him. This is Johnson aping Trump. Nothing more



  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 5,830

    Is MarqueeMark one of Boris’s lovers?

    Even Big G and Carlotta make the occasional criticism.

    I have said loudly that Boris is a complete twat for the way he has been taken in on his energy policy.

    But on Covid, he is no worse than many other world leaders - and may yet prove to be well ahead of most. Today should give huge hope for that.

    Surely, you want him to be ahead of most world leaders in defeating Covid?

    And once more, with conviction.
    If we can deliver the plan he outlined this evening (his best performance to date), I will of course be delighted.

    It just surprises me how much Boris cock-smoking there is on this forum in opposition to all evidence (save his continued relative buoyancy in the polls).
    It never surprises me how much spite there is on here towards a PM who made fools of most of the bettors on this site - and who lost money because they could never seen him as a winner.

    Mwhahahahahaha!
    Well that’s not me, as I don’t bet and I never doubted he would win any election in 2019.

    My spite is simply because he’s a terrible leader. He is not even a good campaigner; he spent most of the 2019 election campaign hiding from the cameras and his most notable outing was astride a bulldozer.

    He’s a terrible speaker, proverbially dishonest, and famously lazy. Why anyone of at least average IQ has the slightest time of day for him I cannot fathom.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 81,377
    edited January 4

    That should help get the Dems out in Ga.....
    Or the 49.3% of Georgians who voted Trump, Perdue and Loeffler cannot win without them
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