Good news on the new vaccine. Nothing is now more important than vaccinating more people than we think possible in January. Deaths in January will almost certainly exceed 30k. If February is to be better we need to move incredibly fast.
...Has to be coupled with a *very* tight lockdown through January, I'm afraid.
Needs to be everything closed except schools and supermarkets, compulsory WFH for office workers, and everyone who has to work lining up this week and next for a vaccine.
Astra Zeneca confirm they can start delivering today or tomorrow
An amazing and inspirational UK success and let's celebrate it and hope we can look to vaccinating the impoverished throughout Africa and beyond as well as our own citizens
Seems like Starmer has called the vote right tomorrow by backing the Deal according to Opinium with both Labour voters and voters as a whole wanting MPs to vote it through and Sturgeon is about to make one of the biggest gaffes of her career as the SNP oppose the Deal according to Opinium's Scottish subsample despite Scottish support for its passage.
Sturgeon is making a minor error. She should probably have ordered abstention - "we can't vote for this deal but neither can we vote for No Deal". It will barely matter a jot in terms of Scottish politics.
She is doing the right thing and every party , with exception of the Nasties will also vote it down in Scottish parliament , by a massive majority. Only the Nasty party will pretend it is anything other than a shit deal for Scotland.
Seems like Starmer has called the vote right tomorrow by backing the Deal according to Opinium with both Labour voters and voters as a whole wanting MPs to vote it through and Sturgeon is about to make one of the biggest gaffes of her career as the SNP oppose the Deal according to Opinium's Scottish subsample despite Scottish support for its passage.
Sturgeon is making a minor error. She should probably have ordered abstention - "we can't vote for this deal but neither can we vote for No Deal". It will barely matter a jot in terms of Scottish politics.
As I keep pointing out, voting against a deal that (a) will already have been signed (b) will pass regardless and (c) would be repeatedly voted on until it did pass in the unlikely event of a mass whip-breaking is not a vote for no deal.
This is about giving your consent for what is about to be done to your constituents. Tory Sheep MPs do as they are told. Labour are led by a coward. LibDems Green SNP DUP Plaid are all standing up for the best interests of constituents as they see it - literally their function in a representative democracy.
Still, we recalcitrant types won’t be able to share in the warm glow of all the tangible Brexit benefits that will come flooding in after 01/01/21. Makes you think.
30 years ago Michael Crichton was making the same kind of point, that computers were incapable of visually distinguishing 8 from B, and claims were commonplace that playing (never mind winning) chess, translating human languages etc were off the menu forever.
Seems like Starmer has called the vote right tomorrow by backing the Deal according to Opinium with both Labour voters and voters as a whole wanting MPs to vote it through and Sturgeon is about to make one of the biggest gaffes of her career as the SNP oppose the Deal according to Opinium's Scottish subsample despite Scottish support for its passage.
Sturgeon is making a minor error. She should probably have ordered abstention - "we can't vote for this deal but neither can we vote for No Deal". It will barely matter a jot in terms of Scottish politics.
She is doing the right thing and every party , with exception of the Nasties will also vote it down in Scottish parliament , by a massive majority. Only the Nasty party will pretend it is anything other than a shit deal for Scotland.
YouGov daily has 63% backing for voting for the deal, 12% against. In the second question only 18% think it a good deal, and 29% a bad one.
Basically voters think (like me) it is crap, but the alternative is even more crap.
It really isn't a ringing endorsement.
No it isn't, but if what you quote is right then is it saying voters think it is crap, but the alternative is even more crap? Since only 29% say it is bad and presumably most said 'don't know' given only 18% said it wsa good. So wouldn't it be that most people don't know if it is crap or not, but on the whole think it should be approved regardless, not that they think it is crap?
Yes, the view that it is neither good nor bad is the plurality.
Not really a sound base for triumphilism is it?
No, that's why I agreed it wasn't a ringing endorsement. Yet it's also not a sound base for presuming people agree it is crap.
More people think it a bad deal than a good one, the remainder are neutral. Perhaps it is just a fart rather than a crap...
How very HYUFD (if he'll forgive the expression). 'Basically voters think (like me) it is crap' has transmogrified to 'more people think it a bad deal than a good one'.
Both seemingly the same point, true to a point, but one implying a lot more than the other.
But we can safely say that the LibDems backing voting the deal down (and so, by default, getting No Deal) is not a winning formula for them....
Not necessarily for the LDs though, 15% of voters want MPs to vote against the Deal and only 11% of voters voted LD in 2019.
Boris, Starmer and maybe Davey have called this right, Sturgeon and Blackford though have clearly called it completely wrong
Have you worked out which way Labour’s sole Scottish MP is voting yet, and has he called it right?
Be a first if he did, but as he is a Tory it is easy to know which way he will vote
30 years ago Michael Crichton was making the same kind of point, that computers were incapable of visually distinguishing 8 from B, and claims were commonplace that playing (never mind winning) chess, translating human languages etc were off the menu forever.
His point is not that it is impossible (indeed his timeline for success at the challenge looks pretty aggressive to me). It is that lay-people don't understand what the hard problems of AI are and that claims of "in 5 years all X will be out of a job due to AI" are overblown.
30 years ago Michael Crichton was making the same kind of point, that computers were incapable of visually distinguishing 8 from B, and claims were commonplace that playing (never mind winning) chess, translating human languages etc were off the menu forever.
Since which time we’ve gone from IBM needing a room full of computers to beat Kasparov, to having phone apps that can play at GM level, and another phone app that is now good enough for me to speak conversational Russian when on holiday there or talking to the wife’s friends.
Seems like Starmer has called the vote right tomorrow by backing the Deal according to Opinium with both Labour voters and voters as a whole wanting MPs to vote it through and Sturgeon is about to make one of the biggest gaffes of her career as the SNP oppose the Deal despite, according to Opinium's Scottish subsample, Scottish support for its passage.
I see that the US is now sixth in the global league table of population adjusted case numbers, and the only country of any size that is above them is Czechia. We don’t hear much about them or why the Czechs have such a bad outbreak?
They had a farewell party for Covid and the bug took offence
Good news on the new vaccine. Nothing is now more important than vaccinating more people than we think possible in January. Deaths in January will almost certainly exceed 30k. If February is to be better we need to move incredibly fast.
...Has to be coupled with a *very* tight lockdown through January, I'm afraid.
Needs to be everything closed except schools and supermarkets, compulsory WFH for office workers, and everyone who has to work lining up this week and next for a vaccine.
The sad truth is that the Tier system is now redundant. It could work against the old variant which was relatively difficult to catch, so, for example, you were relatively safe being in an enclosed space for less than 2 hours providing you were both wearing masks or maintaining social distancing. The new variant does not seem to be like that so many of the things that were relatively safe are now not.
Speaking personally, I will WFH now until I get my jab. Much though I appreciate and enjoy my trips to Edinburgh it would be madness to risk infection now when help is so near at hand. Unfortunately my observations of local activity suggests this is very much a minority view with far more people out and carrying on normally than was the case in lockdown 1 where the streets were deserted. People are completely fed up with this and no longer listening. We will pay a heavy price.
YouGov daily has 63% backing for voting for the deal, 12% against. In the second question only 18% think it a good deal, and 29% a bad one.
Basically voters think (like me) it is crap, but the alternative is even more crap.
It really isn't a ringing endorsement.
No it isn't, but if what you quote is right then is it saying voters think it is crap, but the alternative is even more crap? Since only 29% say it is bad and presumably most said 'don't know' given only 18% said it wsa good. So wouldn't it be that most people don't know if it is crap or not, but on the whole think it should be approved regardless, not that they think it is crap?
Yes, the view that it is neither good nor bad is the plurality.
Not really a sound base for triumphilism is it?
No, that's why I agreed it wasn't a ringing endorsement. Yet it's also not a sound base for presuming people agree it is crap.
More people think it a bad deal than a good one, the remainder are neutral. Perhaps it is just a fart rather than a crap...
How very HYUFD (if he'll forgive the expression). 'Basically voters think (like me) it is crap' has transmogrified to 'more people think it a bad deal than a good one'.
Both seemingly the same point, true to a point, but one implying a lot more than the other.
But we can safely say that the LibDems backing voting the deal down (and so, by default, getting No Deal) is not a winning formula for them....
No you can't safely say that.
Only people with an agenda will say voting against the deal is voting for no deal. (By default blah blah)
Potential LibDem voters will know that the LibDems are certainly not in favour of no deal, but are not in favour of this deal either.
The LibDems are the Remain party. They are not pursuing a rejoin policy (at this stage) but favour a much closer relationship such as CU/SM. A lot of people will support that. The LibDems are at about 7% in the polls at the moment. This clear difference from the two major parties may well be a winning formula. You can't safely say that it isn't.
Are they going to out-Remain Next Prime Minister Jo Fuck Brexit Swinson?
It is pathetic for the Lib Dems to try and be a Remain but maybe not Rejoin party. We've left its done. What do the Lib Dems stand for besides refighting an old referendum that has already been fulfilled now? Can anyone say?
I don't think the LibDems will use the label "Remain" as we've left. It will be something along the lines of a closer relationship with Europe and include a policy of joining the CU/SM.
Brexit isn't over. It has only just begun. The battle will be over convergence (stronger together) versus divergence (sovereignty). It will mirror the Scottish independence battle.
Only the LibDems will be on the Union side in both battles (better together). All the other parties will inconsistently favour sovereignty for one and union for the other.
You, at least, will consistently favour sovereignty both for Scotland and for Britain I think.
"Remain" and "Rejoin" are labels being thrown around as supposed weapons by the people who are still fighting for valediction despite having won. The LibDems represent a pro-business pro-consumer position.
As the dust settles from the deal being signed we start to understand the details - exactly the same process of realisation as Osborne's Omnishambles budget. The "its just a bit of red tape suck it up you remoaners" attitude only gets you a minute of so of sympathy before the reality kicks in.
Business is about to embark on the exact kind of opportunity throttling costly bureaucracy journey that the Tories used to be dead against - this time their approach is to cajole then sneer then attack business. Costs puts prices up. Delays puts prices up. To say nothing of the "fun" we are going to see as people emerge from the pandemic and try to resume their lives to encounter all the barriers that have been put in their way.
The Tories will have this as the preverbial albatross around the neck until they finally toss aside Shagger and replace him with someone who gets to work on trying to remove all these barriers and impediments. Keith Starmer is just as sunk, with "you voted for it" haunting his every attempt to attack the government for the mess.
Which leaves the other parties to mop up. In the smaller nations their respective national parties all resolutely point to how they were against this deal in principle. The LibDems engage with business and consumers about how we can strip away these burdens and restore more personal freedoms.
30 years ago Michael Crichton was making the same kind of point, that computers were incapable of visually distinguishing 8 from B, and claims were commonplace that playing (never mind winning) chess, translating human languages etc were off the menu forever.
His point is not that it is impossible (indeed his timeline for success at the challenge looks pretty aggressive to me). It is that lay-people don't understand what the hard problems of AI are and that claims of "in 5 years all X will be out of a job due to AI" are overblown.
That much is definitely true. Self-driving cars being the obvious example. That was though to be a classic 90/10 problem, whereas it’s becoming clearly at best a 99/1 problem. SD cars are unlikely to share roads with humans in the next decade or more likely two, if they do get deployed anywhere in ‘production’, it will be on their own private road network.
Horrible local teaching news this morning. Local secondary teacher has died of Covid. The school in question is large, and has had a lot of problems trying to manage in-school infection with multiple bubbles off at any one time.
I see that the US is now sixth in the global league table of population adjusted case numbers, and the only country of any size that is above them is Czechia. We don’t hear much about them or why the Czechs have such a bad outbreak?
They had a farewell party for Covid and the bug took offence
All the reports are the EU won't approve the Oxford vaccine anytime soon. I wonder if European countries will go to a single dose strategy?
Astra Zeneca haven’t submitted an application yet - and when they do I suspect the EMA will take its time.
Is there any point if we have bought up all the available vaccine for months? I suspect that in the medium term the Astra Zeneca vaccine will protect more people around the world than any other. It’s cheap and easy to move about. But right now we need all they’ve got.
The AZ man ducked the question of how many they have actually manufactured, on R4, just now - it sounds like they intend to produce JIT and say they will soon be able to manufacture at least a million a week (in the UK, was the unstated implication). Asked if they could go higher, the guy says achieving the million target will be challenging but they can do it. Asked again, he says they could produce two million a week.
We need at least 2m a week. This is a race against time.
I fear the government are going to oversell again and talk about Easter...when in reality, still going to be at least 6 months to getthe majority of people to have both jabs.
Spring takes us into the second half of June, not sure that is what people are hearing when the govt use the word though.
YouGov daily has 63% backing for voting for the deal, 12% against. In the second question only 18% think it a good deal, and 29% a bad one.
Basically voters think (like me) it is crap, but the alternative is even more crap.
It really isn't a ringing endorsement.
No it isn't, but if what you quote is right then is it saying voters think it is crap, but the alternative is even more crap? Since only 29% say it is bad and presumably most said 'don't know' given only 18% said it wsa good. So wouldn't it be that most people don't know if it is crap or not, but on the whole think it should be approved regardless, not that they think it is crap?
Yes, the view that it is neither good nor bad is the plurality.
Not really a sound base for triumphilism is it?
No, that's why I agreed it wasn't a ringing endorsement. Yet it's also not a sound base for presuming people agree it is crap.
More people think it a bad deal than a good one, the remainder are neutral. Perhaps it is just a fart rather than a crap...
How very HYUFD (if he'll forgive the expression). 'Basically voters think (like me) it is crap' has transmogrified to 'more people think it a bad deal than a good one'.
Both seemingly the same point, true to a point, but one implying a lot more than the other.
But we can safely say that the LibDems backing voting the deal down (and so, by default, getting No Deal) is not a winning formula for them....
No you can't safely say that.
Only people with an agenda will say voting against the deal is voting for no deal. (By default blah blah)
Potential LibDem voters will know that the LibDems are certainly not in favour of no deal, but are not in favour of this deal either.
The LibDems are the Remain party. They are not pursuing a rejoin policy (at this stage) but favour a much closer relationship such as CU/SM. A lot of people will support that. The LibDems are at about 7% in the polls at the moment. This clear difference from the two major parties may well be a winning formula. You can't safely say that it isn't.
Are they going to out-Remain Next Prime Minister Jo Fuck Brexit Swinson?
It is pathetic for the Lib Dems to try and be a Remain but maybe not Rejoin party. We've left its done. What do the Lib Dems stand for besides refighting an old referendum that has already been fulfilled now? Can anyone say?
I don't think the LibDems will use the label "Remain" as we've left. It will be something along the lines of a closer relationship with Europe and include a policy of joining the CU/SM.
Brexit isn't over. It has only just begun. The battle will be over convergence (stronger together) versus divergence (sovereignty). It will mirror the Scottish independence battle.
Only the LibDems will be on the Union side in both battles (better together). All the other parties will inconsistently favour sovereignty for one and union for the other.
You, at least, will consistently favour sovereignty both for Scotland and for Britain I think.
"Remain" and "Rejoin" are labels being thrown around as supposed weapons by the people who are still fighting for valediction despite having won. The LibDems represent a pro-business pro-consumer position.
As the dust settles from the deal being signed we start to understand the details - exactly the same process of realisation as Osborne's Omnishambles budget. The "its just a bit of red tape suck it up you remoaners" attitude only gets you a minute of so of sympathy before the reality kicks in.
Business is about to embark on the exact kind of opportunity throttling costly bureaucracy journey that the Tories used to be dead against - this time their approach is to cajole then sneer then attack business. Costs puts prices up. Delays puts prices up. To say nothing of the "fun" we are going to see as people emerge from the pandemic and try to resume their lives to encounter all the barriers that have been put in their way.
The Tories will have this as the preverbial albatross around the neck until they finally toss aside Shagger and replace him with someone who gets to work on trying to remove all these barriers and impediments. Keith Starmer is just as sunk, with "you voted for it" haunting his every attempt to attack the government for the mess.
Which leaves the other parties to mop up. In the smaller nations their respective national parties all resolutely point to how they were against this deal in principle. The LibDems engage with business and consumers about how we can strip away these burdens and restore more personal freedoms.
And this will probably accelerate the shift of the educated middle classes away from the Tories, as those will include the small business owners and managers in larger enterprises who see the impact first hand.
All the electoral focus seems to be on the 'red wall' seats and whether Labour can recover them. Perhaps there's a 'blue wall' of middle class Tory seats that should be getting a bit more attention?
I fear the government are going to oversell again and talk about Easter...when in reality, still going to be at least 6 months to getthe majority of people to have both jabs.
Spring takes us into the second half of June, not sure that is what people are hearing when the govt use the word though.
Spring starts in February.
March 1 or March 20-21, by almost all definitions.
I fear the government are going to oversell again and talk about Easter...when in reality, still going to be at least 6 months to getthe majority of people to have both jabs.
Spring takes us into the second half of June, not sure that is what people are hearing when the govt use the word though.
There are many definitions of the seasons, but having spring start on Midsummer's Day is one of the stranger ones, and people would be generally right to regard spring as having ended much earlier in the year.
Good news on the new vaccine. Nothing is now more important than vaccinating more people than we think possible in January. Deaths in January will almost certainly exceed 30k. If February is to be better we need to move incredibly fast.
...Has to be coupled with a *very* tight lockdown through January, I'm afraid.
Needs to be everything closed except schools and supermarkets, compulsory WFH for office workers, and everyone who has to work lining up this week and next for a vaccine.
The sad truth is that the Tier system is now redundant. It could work against the old variant which was relatively difficult to catch, so, for example, you were relatively safe being in an enclosed space for less than 2 hours providing you were both wearing masks or maintaining social distancing. The new variant does not seem to be like that so many of the things that were relatively safe are now not.
Speaking personally, I will WFH now until I get my jab. Much though I appreciate and enjoy my trips to Edinburgh it would be madness to risk infection now when help is so near at hand. Unfortunately my observations of local activity suggests this is very much a minority view with far more people out and carrying on normally than was the case in lockdown 1 where the streets were deserted. People are completely fed up with this and no longer listening. We will pay a heavy price.
Yep, people just don’t seem to understand the many shades of grey between total lockdown and partying like it’s New Year’s Eve.
Personally I’ve been staying well away from public places for the last couple of weeks, and will continue to do so until all the British tourists go back home!
There’s a huge light just appeared at the end of the tunnel, you’d have to be really silly to want to blow things now, after all the inconveniences of the past nine months.
I fear the government are going to oversell again and talk about Easter...when in reality, still going to be at least 6 months to getthe majority of people to have both jabs.
Spring takes us into the second half of June, not sure that is what people are hearing when the govt use the word though.
Spring starts in February.
It has multiple meanings, hence the govt love it, great for obfuscation, delivering optimism now, but then claiming success later on.
I fear the government are going to oversell again and talk about Easter...when in reality, still going to be at least 6 months to getthe majority of people to have both jabs.
Spring takes us into the second half of June, not sure that is what people are hearing when the govt use the word though.
There are many definitions of the seasons, but having spring start on Midsummer's Day is one of the stranger ones, and people would be generally right to regard spring as having ended much earlier in the year.
It is indeed. And to answer your point last night, when you said that you chose your wife whereas the UK didn't choose the Lisbon treaty; absolutely wrong. The country, in the shape of the democratically elected government, did indeed choose the Lisbon Treaty.
I see that the US is now sixth in the global league table of population adjusted case numbers, and the only country of any size that is above them is Czechia. We don’t hear much about them or why the Czechs have such a bad outbreak?
I am not sure case numbers per million are a good comparitor... depends so much on testing levels.
US still has fewer deaths per million than the UK, Spain, Italy, Belgium...
I fear the government are going to oversell again and talk about Easter...when in reality, still going to be at least 6 months to getthe majority of people to have both jabs.
Spring takes us into the second half of June, not sure that is what people are hearing when the govt use the word though.
There are many definitions of the seasons, but having spring start on Midsummer's Day is one of the stranger ones, and people would be generally right to regard spring as having ended much earlier in the year.
Have they said by the start of spring? I have only heard by spring? Which presumably, from their point of view, includes the last day of spring within "by spring".
I see that the US is now sixth in the global league table of population adjusted case numbers, and the only country of any size that is above them is Czechia. We don’t hear much about them or why the Czechs have such a bad outbreak?
They had a farewell party for Covid and the bug took offence
I fear the government are going to oversell again and talk about Easter...when in reality, still going to be at least 6 months to getthe majority of people to have both jabs.
Spring takes us into the second half of June, not sure that is what people are hearing when the govt use the word though.
There are many definitions of the seasons, but having spring start on Midsummer's Day is one of the stranger ones, and people would be generally right to regard spring as having ended much earlier in the year.
I think the theory is it *ends* on midsummer's day.
Hancock dropping a hint that schools may not be re-opening after all
As we're due to move in early February the plan was to keep the kids in school through until at least the end of January. I wonder now if my son will go back at all...
I see that the US is now sixth in the global league table of population adjusted case numbers, and the only country of any size that is above them is Czechia. We don’t hear much about them or why the Czechs have such a bad outbreak?
I am not sure case numbers per million are a good comparitor... depends so much on testing levels.
US still has fewer deaths per million than the UK, Spain, Italy, Belgium...
That latter is quite likely to change within days, at least in respect of the UK
All the reports are the EU won't approve the Oxford vaccine anytime soon. I wonder if European countries will go to a single dose strategy?
Astra Zeneca haven’t submitted an application yet - and when they do I suspect the EMA will take its time.
I’m surprised at that. I suspect the EU is being misleading.
Typically you don’t officially “submit an application” until *all the data* is available. The regulators don’t start looking until that point because they want to look at the totality of the data.
The MHRA allowed what is called a “rolling submission” - you file each chapter (tox, preclinical, CMC, clinical etc) as it is available.
I don’t know whether the EMA allowed a rolling submission for Jenner/AZ but I would be surprised if they didn’t.
My guess is that the EMA is engaging in some pre-emptive blame shifting relying on journalists taking them at face value and Astra not wanting get into a public fight with its regulator
George Galloway: ‘Why do people take an instant dislike to me?’
Peter Shore: ‘Because it saves time.’
Ernest Bevin who, when told that Herbert Morrison was his own worst enemy, said: “Not while I’m alive he ain’t.
If we’re going for politicians and inventive insults, Churchill, rising to respond to a comment that Aneurin Bevan was unwell, ‘Nothing trivial, I hope.’
What isn't clear is it now pot luck if you get a pfizer or azn jab or is there still going to be a strategy of the oldest / most vulnerable get the one proven to be the most effective.
"Proven effective" is another phrase that could do with being clarified and differentiated.
AIUI it means catching covid.
Whereas to me, what I would regard as effectiveness is avoiding serious illness, where the data suggests both are 99%+ effective.
Is that correct, and if so why are the scientists not clarifying this?
“Efficacy” is a very specific concept in pharma development
Seems like Starmer has called the vote right tomorrow by backing the Deal according to Opinium with both Labour voters and voters as a whole wanting MPs to vote it through and Sturgeon is about to make one of the biggest gaffes of her career as the SNP oppose the Deal according to Opinium's Scottish subsample despite Scottish support for its passage.
Sturgeon is making a minor error. She should probably have ordered abstention - "we can't vote for this deal but neither can we vote for No Deal". It will barely matter a jot in terms of Scottish politics.
She is doing the right thing and every party , with exception of the Nasties will also vote it down in Scottish parliament , by a massive majority. Only the Nasty party will pretend it is anything other than a shit deal for Scotland.
So Scotland should leave the EU with no deal?
Scotland should have remained in the EU and will be back in as soon as possible after independence. Unfortunately being a colony we were forced out by our Colonial Masters against our will.
Hancock dropping a hint that schools may not be re-opening after all
I have been very keen on the schools remaining open because the consequences for children's education, especially those from poorer backgrounds, have been horrendous. But in the face of the new variant and with mass vaccination under way keeping them closed for January is a no brainer, it really is.
The knock on consequences may well be the cancellation of exams in England and Wales, just as we have suffered in Scotland. I think that this could still be avoided but it unquestionably becomes more difficult as the playing field gets tilted ever more in favour of those who are getting effective distance learning and against those who aren't.
YouGov daily has 63% backing for voting for the deal, 12% against. In the second question only 18% think it a good deal, and 29% a bad one.
Basically voters think (like me) it is crap, but the alternative is even more crap.
It really isn't a ringing endorsement.
No it isn't, but if what you quote is right then is it saying voters think it is crap, but the alternative is even more crap? Since only 29% say it is bad and presumably most said 'don't know' given only 18% said it wsa good. So wouldn't it be that most people don't know if it is crap or not, but on the whole think it should be approved regardless, not that they think it is crap?
Yes, the view that it is neither good nor bad is the plurality.
Not really a sound base for triumphilism is it?
No, that's why I agreed it wasn't a ringing endorsement. Yet it's also not a sound base for presuming people agree it is crap.
More people think it a bad deal than a good one, the remainder are neutral. Perhaps it is just a fart rather than a crap...
How very HYUFD (if he'll forgive the expression). 'Basically voters think (like me) it is crap' has transmogrified to 'more people think it a bad deal than a good one'.
Both seemingly the same point, true to a point, but one implying a lot more than the other.
But we can safely say that the LibDems backing voting the deal down (and so, by default, getting No Deal) is not a winning formula for them....
No you can't safely say that.
Only people with an agenda will say voting against the deal is voting for no deal. (By default blah blah)
Potential LibDem voters will know that the LibDems are certainly not in favour of no deal, but are not in favour of this deal either.
The LibDems are the Remain party. They are not pursuing a rejoin policy (at this stage) but favour a much closer relationship such as CU/SM. A lot of people will support that. The LibDems are at about 7% in the polls at the moment. This clear difference from the two major parties may well be a winning formula. You can't safely say that it isn't.
Are they going to out-Remain Next Prime Minister Jo Fuck Brexit Swinson?
It is pathetic for the Lib Dems to try and be a Remain but maybe not Rejoin party. We've left its done. What do the Lib Dems stand for besides refighting an old referendum that has already been fulfilled now? Can anyone say?
I don't think the LibDems will use the label "Remain" as we've left. It will be something along the lines of a closer relationship with Europe and include a policy of joining the CU/SM.
Brexit isn't over. It has only just begun. The battle will be over convergence (stronger together) versus divergence (sovereignty). It will mirror the Scottish independence battle.
Only the LibDems will be on the Union side in both battles (better together). All the other parties will inconsistently favour sovereignty for one and union for the other.
You, at least, will consistently favour sovereignty both for Scotland and for Britain I think.
"Remain" and "Rejoin" are labels being thrown around as supposed weapons by the people who are still fighting for valediction despite having won. The LibDems represent a pro-business pro-consumer position.
As the dust settles from the deal being signed we start to understand the details - exactly the same process of realisation as Osborne's Omnishambles budget. The "its just a bit of red tape suck it up you remoaners" attitude only gets you a minute of so of sympathy before the reality kicks in.
Business is about to embark on the exact kind of opportunity throttling costly bureaucracy journey that the Tories used to be dead against - this time their approach is to cajole then sneer then attack business. Costs puts prices up. Delays puts prices up. To say nothing of the "fun" we are going to see as people emerge from the pandemic and try to resume their lives to encounter all the barriers that have been put in their way.
The Tories will have this as the preverbial albatross around the neck until they finally toss aside Shagger and replace him with someone who gets to work on trying to remove all these barriers and impediments. Keith Starmer is just as sunk, with "you voted for it" haunting his every attempt to attack the government for the mess.
Which leaves the other parties to mop up. In the smaller nations their respective national parties all resolutely point to how they were against this deal in principle. The LibDems engage with business and consumers about how we can strip away these burdens and restore more personal freedoms.
And this will probably accelerate the shift of the educated middle classes away from the Tories, as those will include the small business owners and managers in larger enterprises who see the impact first hand.
All the electoral focus seems to be on the 'red wall' seats and whether Labour can recover them. Perhaps there's a 'blue wall' of middle class Tory seats that should be getting a bit more attention?
No, leave them alone. Let the LD's get on with it. Then suddenly see a swathe of councils in the South fall to them in May.
YouGov daily has 63% backing for voting for the deal, 12% against. In the second question only 18% think it a good deal, and 29% a bad one.
Basically voters think (like me) it is crap, but the alternative is even more crap.
It really isn't a ringing endorsement.
No it isn't, but if what you quote is right then is it saying voters think it is crap, but the alternative is even more crap? Since only 29% say it is bad and presumably most said 'don't know' given only 18% said it wsa good. So wouldn't it be that most people don't know if it is crap or not, but on the whole think it should be approved regardless, not that they think it is crap?
Yes, the view that it is neither good nor bad is the plurality.
Not really a sound base for triumphilism is it?
No, that's why I agreed it wasn't a ringing endorsement. Yet it's also not a sound base for presuming people agree it is crap.
More people think it a bad deal than a good one, the remainder are neutral. Perhaps it is just a fart rather than a crap...
How very HYUFD (if he'll forgive the expression). 'Basically voters think (like me) it is crap' has transmogrified to 'more people think it a bad deal than a good one'.
Both seemingly the same point, true to a point, but one implying a lot more than the other.
But we can safely say that the LibDems backing voting the deal down (and so, by default, getting No Deal) is not a winning formula for them....
No you can't safely say that.
Only people with an agenda will say voting against the deal is voting for no deal. (By default blah blah)
Potential LibDem voters will know that the LibDems are certainly not in favour of no deal, but are not in favour of this deal either.
The LibDems are the Remain party. They are not pursuing a rejoin policy (at this stage) but favour a much closer relationship such as CU/SM. A lot of people will support that. The LibDems are at about 7% in the polls at the moment. This clear difference from the two major parties may well be a winning formula. You can't safely say that it isn't.
Are they going to out-Remain Next Prime Minister Jo Fuck Brexit Swinson?
It is pathetic for the Lib Dems to try and be a Remain but maybe not Rejoin party. We've left its done. What do the Lib Dems stand for besides refighting an old referendum that has already been fulfilled now? Can anyone say?
I don't think the LibDems will use the label "Remain" as we've left. It will be something along the lines of a closer relationship with Europe and include a policy of joining the CU/SM.
Brexit isn't over. It has only just begun. The battle will be over convergence (stronger together) versus divergence (sovereignty). It will mirror the Scottish independence battle.
Only the LibDems will be on the Union side in both battles (better together). All the other parties will inconsistently favour sovereignty for one and union for the other.
You, at least, will consistently favour sovereignty both for Scotland and for Britain I think.
"Remain" and "Rejoin" are labels being thrown around as supposed weapons by the people who are still fighting for valediction despite having won. The LibDems represent a pro-business pro-consumer position.
As the dust settles from the deal being signed we start to understand the details - exactly the same process of realisation as Osborne's Omnishambles budget. The "its just a bit of red tape suck it up you remoaners" attitude only gets you a minute of so of sympathy before the reality kicks in.
Business is about to embark on the exact kind of opportunity throttling costly bureaucracy journey that the Tories used to be dead against - this time their approach is to cajole then sneer then attack business. Costs puts prices up. Delays puts prices up. To say nothing of the "fun" we are going to see as people emerge from the pandemic and try to resume their lives to encounter all the barriers that have been put in their way.
The Tories will have this as the preverbial albatross around the neck until they finally toss aside Shagger and replace him with someone who gets to work on trying to remove all these barriers and impediments. Keith Starmer is just as sunk, with "you voted for it" haunting his every attempt to attack the government for the mess.
Which leaves the other parties to mop up. In the smaller nations their respective national parties all resolutely point to how they were against this deal in principle. The LibDems engage with business and consumers about how we can strip away these burdens and restore more personal freedoms.
If the EU were willing to take down the barriers based on mutual economic benefit that would be great. But they are demanding political conditions which are unacceptable. So until we compromise or they do there is only limited space to remove the barriers to wealth generation that they want to erect
Hancock dropping a hint that schools may not be re-opening after all
I have been very keen on the schools remaining open because the consequences for children's education, especially those from poorer backgrounds, have been horrendous. But in the face of the new variant and with mass vaccination under way keeping them closed for January is a no brainer, it really is.
The knock on consequences may well be the cancellation of exams in England and Wales, just as we have suffered in Scotland. I think that this could still be avoided but it unquestionably becomes more difficult as the playing field gets tilted ever more in favour of those who are getting effective distance learning and against those who aren't.
The problem is, for the reasons you give to avoid cancelling exams we need to have sensible planning for distance learning and catch up sessions from April onwards. And that just hasn’t happened. Some students have actually missed around 60% of the normal teaching time they would have had for their GCSEs. Others, hardly anything. How can you make a judgement about their ability based on a common exam under the circumstances?
What worries me is not so much cancelling them but the fact that it is becoming absolutely painfully obvious that nobody has thought of alternative forms of assessment. If History, Geography, English, languages and the creative arts had been switched to externally moderated coursework - a perfectly feasible option - it might just have been possible to salvage exams for maths and science. But nobody made the effort to think and have plans in place.
Edit - incidentally if it’s a ‘no brainer’ the government still won’t do it, as while they have no brains they are so dim even a no brainer wouldn’t compute.
I fear the government are going to oversell again and talk about Easter...when in reality, still going to be at least 6 months to getthe majority of people to have both jabs.
Spring takes us into the second half of June, not sure that is what people are hearing when the govt use the word though.
There are many definitions of the seasons, but having spring start on Midsummer's Day is one of the stranger ones, and people would be generally right to regard spring as having ended much earlier in the year.
Have they said by the start of spring? I have only heard by spring? Which presumably, from their point of view, includes the last day of spring within "by spring".
Hancock used “in spring” rather than “by spring” today which tends to support your contention
What isn't clear is it now pot luck if you get a pfizer or azn jab or is there still going to be a strategy of the oldest / most vulnerable get the one proven to be the most effective.
"Proven effective" is another phrase that could do with being clarified and differentiated.
AIUI it means catching covid.
Whereas to me, what I would regard as effectiveness is avoiding serious illness, where the data suggests both are 99%+ effective.
Is that correct, and if so why are the scientists not clarifying this?
“Efficacy” is a very specific concept in pharma development
Sure, but the vast majority of the public arent pharma experts.
They are fine with getting coughs and colds but dont want serious illnesses.
The emphasis in the public communication should be on preventing serious illnesses, not catching mild covid. The efficacy percentages as presented fail in that regard.
I see that the US is now sixth in the global league table of population adjusted case numbers, and the only country of any size that is above them is Czechia. We don’t hear much about them or why the Czechs have such a bad outbreak?
They had a farewell party for Covid and the bug took offence
By that graph they never really suffered a first wave. Yet their total results overall are one of the worst.
I think that is fairly consistent across Eastern Europe although haven’t had the time to understand why.
Similarly people forget that Germany was lucky in that their initial infections were in a group of young people which gave they a longer lead time than others (which they took full advantage of)
I see that the US is now sixth in the global league table of population adjusted case numbers, and the only country of any size that is above them is Czechia. We don’t hear much about them or why the Czechs have such a bad outbreak?
They had a farewell party for Covid and the bug took offence
By that graph they never really suffered a first wave. Yet their total results overall are one of the worst.
By the standards of their "first wave" (as you say barely a ripple really) they actually had quite a large outbreak in the week leading up to the goodbye to Covid party.
Hancock dropping a hint that schools may not be re-opening after all
I have been very keen on the schools remaining open because the consequences for children's education, especially those from poorer backgrounds, have been horrendous. But in the face of the new variant and with mass vaccination under way keeping them closed for January is a no brainer, it really is.
The knock on consequences may well be the cancellation of exams in England and Wales, just as we have suffered in Scotland. I think that this could still be avoided but it unquestionably becomes more difficult as the playing field gets tilted ever more in favour of those who are getting effective distance learning and against those who aren't.
The problem is, for the reasons you give to avoid cancelling exams we need to have sensible planning for distance learning and catch up sessions from April onwards. And that just hasn’t happened. Some students have actually missed around 60% of the normal teaching time they would have had for their GCSEs. Others, hardly anything. How can you make a judgement about their ability based on a common exam under the circumstances?
What worries me is not so much cancelling them but the fact that it is becoming absolutely painfully obvious that nobody has thought of alternative forms of assessment. If History, Geography, English, languages and the creative arts had been switched to externally moderated coursework - a perfectly feasible option - it might just have been possible to salvage exams for maths and science. But nobody made the effort to think and have plans in place.
Edit - incidentally if it’s a ‘no brainer’ the government still won’t do it, as while they have no brains they are so dim even a no brainer wouldn’t compute.
As I said back in the Spring when a system is stressed it defends what it sees as vital.
It is clear that the Education System sees exams, not teaching children, as vital.
Everything is focused on "exams going ahead" even last year when exams were cancelled the focus was on "producing exam results" because the purpose of schools in the UK is to produce exam results.
I think one statistic that would put an end to this charade would be "number of days in school" min and max's for every pupil/school. If people could see that some GCSE pupils have been in for only a few weeks over the Autumn term compared to others who have been in practically every day then the notion of being able to judge those pupils on the same exam would be exposed for the nonsense it is.
I see that the US is now sixth in the global league table of population adjusted case numbers, and the only country of any size that is above them is Czechia. We don’t hear much about them or why the Czechs have such a bad outbreak?
They had a farewell party for Covid and the bug took offence
By that graph they never really suffered a first wave. Yet their total results overall are one of the worst.
I think that is fairly consistent across Eastern Europe although haven’t had the time to understand why.
Similarly people forget that Germany was lucky in that their initial infections were in a group of young people which gave they a longer lead time than others (which they took full advantage of)
It's often repeated on here that Germany's initial infections were a group of young people (including the misguided idea that the outbreak in Heinsberg involved a "festival" of young people), but I don't think that is especially true. The main thing different that happened in Germany is that there was a lot of local testing capacity already in January, everything else follows from that.
I see that the US is now sixth in the global league table of population adjusted case numbers, and the only country of any size that is above them is Czechia. We don’t hear much about them or why the Czechs have such a bad outbreak?
They had a farewell party for Covid and the bug took offence
By that graph they never really suffered a first wave. Yet their total results overall are one of the worst.
I think that is fairly consistent across Eastern Europe although haven’t had the time to understand why.
Similarly people forget that Germany was lucky in that their initial infections were in a group of young people which gave they a longer lead time than others (which they took full advantage of)
It's often repeated on here that Germany's initial infections were a group of young people (including the misguided idea that the outbreak in Heinsberg involved a "festival" of young people), but I don't think that is especially true. The main thing different that happened in Germany is that there was a lot of local testing capacity already in January, everything else follows from that.
As for Eastern Europe (including most of former East Germany) the lack of first wave is probably mainly down to it not really arriving there before lockdowns came in.
I fear the government are going to oversell again and talk about Easter...when in reality, still going to be at least 6 months to getthe majority of people to have both jabs.
Spring takes us into the second half of June, not sure that is what people are hearing when the govt use the word though.
Spring starts in February.
March 1 or March 20-21, by almost all definitions.
Those are just two definitions. There are several. February is another one too.
So it took Tony Blair on the radio and a whole week’s hard thinking before this government arrives at what was obvious to everyone else.
It’s good that they waited to review the data.
Medical protocols shouldn’t be determined based on “what’s obvious”
Yes. Its possible that the government or independent agencies etc might have been able to move faster on some things, but they will never be able nor do we really want them to be moving as fast as commentators can.
I fear the government are going to oversell again and talk about Easter...when in reality, still going to be at least 6 months to getthe majority of people to have both jabs.
Spring takes us into the second half of June, not sure that is what people are hearing when the govt use the word though.
There are many definitions of the seasons, but having spring start on Midsummer's Day is one of the stranger ones, and people would be generally right to regard spring as having ended much earlier in the year.
Have they said by the start of spring? I have only heard by spring? Which presumably, from their point of view, includes the last day of spring within "by spring".
Hancock used “in spring” rather than “by spring” today which tends to support your contention
Yes, though I expect people will get confused. I imagine he didn't want to say 'by the summer' in case they can cover sooner, whilst still providing a range.
That is brilliant news about the Oxford vaccine. Given that this will go all over the world, I also hope the Government got their way, and it will carry a small union flag. But let's get the UK vaccinated first so we can be in a position to help others.
Comments
An amazing and inspirational UK success and let's celebrate it and hope we can look to vaccinating the impoverished throughout Africa and beyond as well as our own citizens
Immunity comes two weeks after the first dose, which will be the priority for the first three months
Only the Nasty party will pretend it is anything other than a shit deal for Scotland.
https://twitter.com/nickhassey/status/1344191408048103429?s=20
Speaking personally, I will WFH now until I get my jab. Much though I appreciate and enjoy my trips to Edinburgh it would be madness to risk infection now when help is so near at hand. Unfortunately my observations of local activity suggests this is very much a minority view with far more people out and carrying on normally than was the case in lockdown 1 where the streets were deserted. People are completely fed up with this and no longer listening. We will pay a heavy price.
https://twitter.com/kevinbrannigans/status/1343941334466498568?s=21
As the dust settles from the deal being signed we start to understand the details - exactly the same process of realisation as Osborne's Omnishambles budget. The "its just a bit of red tape suck it up you remoaners" attitude only gets you a minute of so of sympathy before the reality kicks in.
Business is about to embark on the exact kind of opportunity throttling costly bureaucracy journey that the Tories used to be dead against - this time their approach is to cajole then sneer then attack business. Costs puts prices up. Delays puts prices up. To say nothing of the "fun" we are going to see as people emerge from the pandemic and try to resume their lives to encounter all the barriers that have been put in their way.
The Tories will have this as the preverbial albatross around the neck until they finally toss aside Shagger and replace him with someone who gets to work on trying to remove all these barriers and impediments. Keith Starmer is just as sunk, with "you voted for it" haunting his every attempt to attack the government for the mess.
Which leaves the other parties to mop up. In the smaller nations their respective national parties all resolutely point to how they were against this deal in principle. The LibDems engage with business and consumers about how we can strip away these burdens and restore more personal freedoms.
https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/tributes-paid-much-loved-inspirational-19536602
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53244688
All the electoral focus seems to be on the 'red wall' seats and whether Labour can recover them. Perhaps there's a 'blue wall' of middle class Tory seats that should be getting a bit more attention?
Personally I’ve been staying well away from public places for the last couple of weeks, and will continue to do so until all the British tourists go back home!
There’s a huge light just appeared at the end of the tunnel, you’d have to be really silly to want to blow things now, after all the inconveniences of the past nine months.
Medical protocols shouldn’t be determined based on “what’s obvious”
Peter Shore: ‘Because it saves time.’
US still has fewer deaths per million than the UK, Spain, Italy, Belgium...
Typically you don’t officially “submit an application” until *all the data* is available. The regulators don’t start looking until that point because they want to look at the totality of the data.
The MHRA allowed what is called a “rolling submission” - you file each chapter (tox, preclinical, CMC, clinical etc) as it is available.
I don’t know whether the EMA allowed a rolling submission for Jenner/AZ but I would be surprised if they didn’t.
My guess is that the EMA is engaging in some pre-emptive blame shifting relying on journalists taking them at face value and Astra not wanting get into a public fight with its regulator
What if the data had showed the second shot within 4 weeks was essential for protection?
It was a mess of a phase 3 trial, but lets get it out there. It is less risky than new covid.
The knock on consequences may well be the cancellation of exams in England and Wales, just as we have suffered in Scotland. I think that this could still be avoided but it unquestionably becomes more difficult as the playing field gets tilted ever more in favour of those who are getting effective distance learning and against those who aren't.
What worries me is not so much cancelling them but the fact that it is becoming absolutely painfully obvious that nobody has thought of alternative forms of assessment. If History, Geography, English, languages and the creative arts had been switched to externally moderated coursework - a perfectly feasible option - it might just have been possible to salvage exams for maths and science. But nobody made the effort to think and have plans in place.
Edit - incidentally if it’s a ‘no brainer’ the government still won’t do it, as while they have no brains they are so dim even a no brainer wouldn’t compute.
They are fine with getting coughs and colds but dont want serious illnesses.
The emphasis in the public communication should be on preventing serious illnesses, not catching mild covid. The efficacy percentages as presented fail in that regard.
Similarly people forget that Germany was lucky in that their initial infections were in a group of young people which gave they a longer lead time than others (which they took full advantage of)
It is clear that the Education System sees exams, not teaching children, as vital.
Everything is focused on "exams going ahead" even last year when exams were cancelled the focus was on "producing exam results" because the purpose of schools in the UK is to produce exam results.
I think one statistic that would put an end to this charade would be "number of days in school" min and max's for every pupil/school. If people could see that some GCSE pupils have been in for only a few weeks over the Autumn term compared to others who have been in practically every day then the notion of being able to judge those pupils on the same exam would be exposed for the nonsense it is.