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Longstanding PBer, DavidL, gives his forecasts for the new year – politicalbetting.com
Longstanding PBer, DavidL, gives his forecasts for the new year – politicalbetting.com
I think it takes a bit of temerity to make forecasts for the year ahead after the year we have just had. Looking back at my forecasts for 2020 there is a notable missing black swan from the list. However, and in the spirit of things:
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This is an awesome word I want to make more use of, but what does it mean?
‘Buttler taking over the captaincy.’
Proof, if proof were needed, that Ed Smith is a closet Aussie.
https://twitter.com/Frances_Coppola/status/1343203771229343744?s=20
Some Scottish predictions.
The SNP will win almost all the FPTP seats in May, enough for an overall majority, and around 50% of the vote. The Scottish electorate are impressed with SNP government performance, especially concerning COVID, and will support them. Not everyone in North East Scotland is a fisherman. Some electors grow seed potatoes.
The SNP will win very few regional seats. The media will concentrate extensively on the Salmond argument in the weeks leading up to the election. The top places on the regional lists will be allocated to wokes. (The ordinary membership no longer have a significant say in who is on the list.) Many SNP activists will vote for their constituency MSP, but will abstain on the list, or vote for another party. The ISP and SSP may pick up the odd seat. The Greens will increase their numbers.
Nicola Sturgeon will ask Boris Johnson for a referendum. Boris will refuse. Nicola will be hesitant to press the matter. There will not be a referendum. There will be a power struggle within the SNP, which Nicola will lose, having lost the support of the media.
Fairliered will be very sad, as he has been fighting for Independence for nearly 50 years, and he’s getting on a bit.
HYUFD will be arrested at Gretna under the SNP Hate Crime Bill.
Surely it should be, ‘will be stopped at Gretna for driving without a licence?’
https://twitter.com/Frances_Coppola/status/1343206045896859648?s=20
How many years will Scotland have to wait to join the EU while within the UK?
That’s a serious question.
On a serious note, however, the currency question would in itself need resolving before an independent Scotland could apply for EU membership. So it certainly wouldn’t happen at once.
https://twitter.com/mateirosca/status/1343145503333240832?s=20
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/1343170363589586945
Just post the URL for the relevant Youtube or Twatter page? Seems to work for me.
Arrest at the border in his tank could be a useful stepping stone for HYUFD, as regards publicity.
It will be followed by violent demonstrations by HYUFD's Proud Boys.
Boris will call for the release of the HYUFD One. Scotland will expel him on the grounds of cleanliness.
HYUFD will then be adopted as Parliamentary candidate for a safe Essex seat.
He has all the qualities needed to be an excellent Tory MP.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zw15jSptIHM
Not expecting the jab anytime soon (nor think I should be other than back of the queue for it), so will hopefully be able to use my lack of vaccine as a bulletproof excuse for shunning social invitations throughout 2021.
The last 12 months should be a salutary lesson for anyone trying to do predictions but it doesn't seem to stop anyone.
I'll offer two for now - the Conservatives will suffer a net loss of seats in the English County Council elections and Sadiq Khan will be re-elected London Mayor.
Somewhere, a bear will shit in the woods.
https://www.chortle.co.uk/news/2020/12/17/47505/mrs_browns_boys_to_be_on_tv_until_2026#:~:text=Mrs Brown's Boys creator Brendan,of 10pm on Christmas Day.
This is potentially very interesting and something I would personally be in favour of but I can't see it doing well politically. I think Labour would be best to build on social elements and environmental protections but leave the FOM stuff well alone.
What I'd surprised that hasn't been featured is the word 'green'. My hunch is that by the end of 2021 the world will have gone bananas about climate and icecaps. Mostly that'll be a good thing.
I can picture Nigel now, in red ermine and standing on the roof of an old Ford Cortina, returning to the village a people's hero.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lG4VkPoG3ko
John Allan told the BBC that it would "hardly be felt in terms of the prices that consumers are paying".
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55460948
Which is why I think Fairliered is right, and Boris will refuse a Referendum.
I'm more worried by the cricket predictions though. Well he gets more votes in Scotland than Cameron did from the time of hte last Sindy ref.
Of course, one would hope the benefits or negatives of the Union would not come down to whosoever happens to be PM or FM at the time, but of course some number will, and if it is close that could be important.
There have been times when he was instrumental in driving the political movement forwards, and times when he was just carping from the sidelines.
As FrancisUrquhart says, the prime moment for it is past. Whether there are smaller informal agreements is another matter. It's hard to work out what is a reasonable number of places to help out another in that way, and where. The Greens are a good example - obvioulsy whilst Lucas is there many say she should be given a clear run, even from Labour (though I'd disagree), but once she stands down should the Greens be granted any favours there?
As for the actual predictions, they mostly look very feasible. Hoping the (chronologically) very 1st one falls, however, and I reckon it will. The odds say the Dems do not pull off the Georgia double but I say they will. Another contra consensus prediction of mine is we will see and hear little of political note from Donald Trump. Stripped of the trappings of POTUS his essential absurdity will become ever more apparent to ever more people.
And to @ydoethur re SNP Blackford, I can't say I like him - in fact I dislike his aura - but he is forceful and fluent and he does have a presence. Sort of bloke you might wish to ignore but find you sadly can't. That's my assessment. Definitely not a joke figure.
https://riverlevels.uk/taff-llandaff-north-community-western-avenue#.X-ipLtj7SUk
However, he did an interview from his home at some point in the summer. He seemed rather warm and lovely.
As ever, better someone get a gong than a Peerage.
I probably do believe that, but I bet most Labour Party members don't.
I also would caution the SNP into taking the Orkneys and Shetlands into their independence campaign as it does look possible they could indeed leave Scotland for their own independence
Although I don't know whether such a policy would require a conference vote or whether he could just pledge to introduce it? Perhaps a referendum first.
I think Labour should undoubtedly back it.
Just in case it should ever come up, I should warn PBers I am not the 6ft 6 muscle bound adonis they were probably picturing me as.
They can get to largest party, sure, but win a majority?
In 1997, at constituency level, it was more tacit than strategic - where either Labour or the LDs was perceived as the clear challenger to the Conservatives, the other party did very little or nothing.
Oddly enough, the strength and size of the Labour vote proved in some ways counter-productive. The Conservatives survived in a few seats on the strength of the Labour vote not transferring across to the LDs who were in second place and indeed there were a few incidents of Labour moving from third to first (Bristol West, Falmouth & Camborne).
As a wise man said, "that was then but this is now". Would Labour voters tactically vote LD against a Conservative - perhaps. Would LD voters vote tactically Labour against a Conservative? There's also the Greens to consider - the electoral pact in Bristol West was one instance.
The truth is electoral pacts imposed from above don't usually work well but if they form in the area they can work better but neither is the panacea some would hope.
Betting PostF1: got a £1 free bet so stuck it on Leclerc at 34 each way (third the odds top 2) to win the driver's in 2021.
Ferrari's performance fell off a cliff in 2020, compared to 2019. This is because they were naughty with the engine in 2019 and effectively had a massive setback in on-track performance. This should see a dramatic recovery on that front next year and the regulation changes are on the modest side.
We know Leclerc's fast and also favoured by the time, and this year, even with a dominant car, Bottas struggled to beat Verstappen (the Finn did have some bad luck, to be fair).
It's not a bad shout for a free bet that might come off. And nothing lost if it doesn't.
I suspect that, for example, Lord Hannan will better understand the role of a Lord, and be more willing to arrange his private engagements around when Parliament is sitting.
PR isn't in either of the main parties interests, but it perhaps will be if Scotland ever sails off that it is in Labour's.
So 121 seats to gain: http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour
Target 121 has a majority of 10270. 16 of those seats are in Scotland. 10.33% swing required.
So assuming they fail to win any in Scotland, they need another 16 elsewhere, then you get to swings of 15% or more.
Realistically their easiest solution is for the Lib Dems to do better, I can't see them forming a majority anytime soon and I say that as a Labour supporter.
Labour/LD coalition without the SNP? More likely.