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Punters think the deal will be done by the deadline – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,168
edited December 2020 in General
imagePunters think the deal will be done by the deadline – politicalbetting.com

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  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,725
    First?
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Now we will need 10 years work to rejoin
  • I still don't believe it. Not until I see both Johnson and Ursula say the words.
  • Fenman said:

    Now we will need 10 years work to rejoin

    I very much doubt the UK will rejoin in the future as our trading agreements with the rest of the world will change quite dramatically
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    edited December 2020
    Negotiations remind me of this clip:
    https://youtu.be/hgdKFcOssnA
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,725
    Fenman said:

    Now we will need 10 years work to rejoin

    We won't rejoin. We will never give up the pound sterling.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Adler stressing the new friction in physical trade and the deal doing very little for services, clearly to avoid the news appearing to suggest that the deal will solve all the potential problems.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209

    Fenman said:

    Now we will need 10 years work to rejoin

    We won't rejoin. We will never give up the pound sterling.
    I'm with you on the first, but it's entirely possible that governments will lose control of currency at some point in the future.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001

    I very much doubt the UK will rejoin in the future as our trading agreements with the rest of the world will change quite dramatically

    They will be much smaller than they are now...
  • Fenman said:

    Now we will need 10 years work to rejoin

    I very much doubt the UK will rejoin in the future as our trading agreements with the rest of the world will change quite dramatically
    Yet to see them sign any deal that is as good a deal as we have in EU, has anyone any evidence of where they got an improved deal for all the expense and hassle????
    PS: I don't mean a miniscule opportunity like selling stilton to Japan either for worse terms
  • "The Tory MP Sir Bill Cash will lead a "star chamber" of Brexit lawyers including Martin Howe QC in poring over the legal text before giving a verdict to MPs ahead of a vote, expected to take place on December 30."

    Telegraph

    Who cares? They don't have the numbers.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    edited December 2020

    Worth bearing in mind that this is the first trade deal in history designed to make it harder not easier to trade. On average, economists think it will subtract about 4% from UK GDP in the long run, relative to single market membership. If they are right this cost is far greater than the net payments we made as an EU member. Still, it is better than no deal, and for that at least we should be thankful.

    Well, no it really isn’t, and I say that as a Remainer. The EU wasn’t just about trade, or it’s unlikely we’d ever have left it. It also had major sociopolitical ramifications that were, to put it mildly, not universally popular.

    This deal *is* designed to make trade easier than it would be in a clean break. So from that point of view it might fairly be compared to the free trade deals in the former Soviet Union, or Greenland’s arrangements with Denmark after 1985, which in itself sees your point fail.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Never is a long time. Not long ago people might have said the same thing about leaving. At some point the U.K. will leave nostalgia behind and embrace the C21. My hunch is that the future will neither look like leaving or rejoining, but something quite different.
  • Worth bearing in mind that this is the first trade deal in history designed to make it harder not easier to trade. On average, economists think it will subtract about 4% from UK GDP in the long run, relative to single market membership. If they are right this cost is far greater than the net payments we made as an EU member. Still, it is better than no deal, and for that at least we should be thankful.

    You could not make it up , the Tory muppets on here ecstatic that fatso has signed a crap deal and we are much worse off than we were before. No wonder the Europeans are rolling about the floor laughing. Not hard to swap £20 for £10 yet it still took these muppets over 4 years.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Fenman said:

    Now we will need 10 years work to rejoin

    I very much doubt the UK will rejoin in the future as our trading agreements with the rest of the world will change quite dramatically
    They wouldn’t have us we’re not worth the hassle
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,220
    rcs1000 said:

    Fenman said:

    Now we will need 10 years work to rejoin

    We won't rejoin. We will never give up the pound sterling.
    I'm with you on the first, but it's entirely possible that governments will lose control of currency at some point in the future.
    On neither matter is the future writ in stone - and neither is of great concern for the next few years at least.

    A deal will be a relief, but I suspect the practical consequences will disappoint many who voted to leave. None of the rest of us are expecting much anyway.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Scott_xP said:
    Isn’t that going to be highly problematic for EU potato farmers?

    And since 80% of the world’s potatoes are certainly not grown in Europe, it’s not exactly a ‘devastating’ blow if the industry is that monopolistic.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    "The Tory MP Sir Bill Cash will lead a "star chamber" of Brexit lawyers including Martin Howe QC in poring over the legal text before giving a verdict to MPs ahead of a vote, expected to take place on December 30."

    Telegraph

    Who cares? They don't have the numbers.

    They do have the numbers, not to vote down the deal, but to get rid of Boris.
  • I'm sure this can be sorted down the road if it is such a major problem.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Won’t be the first time one of Johnson’s dodgy negotiations has ended with a massive bang in which everyone gets a good screwing.
  • Scott_xP said:

    I very much doubt the UK will rejoin in the future as our trading agreements with the rest of the world will change quite dramatically

    They will be much smaller than they are now...
    We are not even members of TPP yet and that market will dwarf the EU

    Furthermore, we will continue trading with the EU

    I do not want to be unkind but despite your 24/7 anti brexit postings you have failed
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Congratulations to Boris.
    It’s a historic achievement to avoid a No Deal.
    It really is.

    Admittedly, it was Boris that made No Deal scarily possible since he ousted Theresa May, but he has managed to avert what would have been an economic and political calamity.

    Despite his ill-advised Internal Markets Bill.
    And Cummings being allowed to firebomb half of Whitehall.

    Hopefully Boris will now piss off and let the grown-ups rebuild links into the single market.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    The big determinant about the next stage of our relationship with the EU is what happens in Scotland. Can we stop the Balkanisation if the U.K.?
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Fenman said:

    Now we will need 10 years work to rejoin

    We won't rejoin. We will never give up the pound sterling.
    I'm with you on the first, but it's entirely possible that governments will lose control of currency at some point in the future.
    On neither matter is the future writ in stone - and neither is of great concern for the next few years at least.

    A deal will be a relief, but I suspect the practical consequences will disappoint many who voted to leave. None of the rest of us are expecting much anyway.
    The practical consequences might disappoint some of those who voted to leave, yes, but I think the fatigue has well and truly set in now and this issue won't be touched with a bargepole by any of the main parties until the next election.
  • Punters haven't had a great record predicting EU twists and turns...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,220

    Congratulations to Boris.
    It’s a historic achievement to avoid a No Deal.
    It really is.

    Admittedly, it was Boris that made No Deal scarily possible since he ousted Theresa May, but he has managed to avert what would have been an economic and political calamity.

    Despite his ill-advised Internal Markets Bill.
    And Cummings being allowed to firebomb half of Whitehall.

    Hopefully Boris will now piss off and let the grown-ups rebuild links into the single market.

    Can you identify any ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    Congratulations to Boris.
    It’s a historic achievement to avoid a No Deal.
    It really is.

    Admittedly, it was Boris that made No Deal scarily possible since he ousted Theresa May, but he has managed to avert what would have been an economic and political calamity.

    Despite his ill-advised Internal Markets Bill.
    And Cummings being allowed to firebomb half of Whitehall.

    Hopefully Boris will now piss off and let the grown-ups rebuild links into the single market.

    Given Cummings’ track record, we owe Princess Nut Nuts, oooops, Carrie Symonds a debt of gratitude for being the pretext to fire him before he got his tiny mitts on the rest.
  • Fenman said:

    Now we will need 10 years work to rejoin

    I very much doubt the UK will rejoin in the future as our trading agreements with the rest of the world will change quite dramatically
    Yet to see them sign any deal that is as good a deal as we have in EU, has anyone any evidence of where they got an improved deal for all the expense and hassle????
    PS: I don't mean a miniscule opportunity like selling stilton to Japan either for worse terms
    From the 1st January the UK is free to strike deals and the biggest prize is the TPP which I expect us to join in the next couple of years, especially as Joe Biden is now likely to take the US into the partnership
  • MaxPB said:

    "The Tory MP Sir Bill Cash will lead a "star chamber" of Brexit lawyers including Martin Howe QC in poring over the legal text before giving a verdict to MPs ahead of a vote, expected to take place on December 30."

    Telegraph

    Who cares? They don't have the numbers.

    They do have the numbers, not to vote down the deal, but to get rid of Boris.
    Do they? They might just have the #s to force a leadership challenge, but then???
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    It will be interesting to see the ERG’s take.
    Although, it is hard to have much faith in their abilities since they overlooked the glaring clauses in the Withdrawal Agreement.
  • "The Tory MP Sir Bill Cash will lead a "star chamber" of Brexit lawyers including Martin Howe QC in poring over the legal text before giving a verdict to MPs ahead of a vote, expected to take place on December 30."

    Telegraph

    Who cares? They don't have the numbers.

    As I said last night, comedy hour
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Will we be able to put PT back in his box now that the most wonderful deal has been achieved by the worlds best ever leader? Or will we have to put up with years of explanation as to why it’s so good.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Nigelb said:

    Congratulations to Boris.
    It’s a historic achievement to avoid a No Deal.
    It really is.

    Admittedly, it was Boris that made No Deal scarily possible since he ousted Theresa May, but he has managed to avert what would have been an economic and political calamity.

    Despite his ill-advised Internal Markets Bill.
    And Cummings being allowed to firebomb half of Whitehall.

    Hopefully Boris will now piss off and let the grown-ups rebuild links into the single market.

    Can you identify any ?
    Any what?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    MaxPB said:

    "The Tory MP Sir Bill Cash will lead a "star chamber" of Brexit lawyers including Martin Howe QC in poring over the legal text before giving a verdict to MPs ahead of a vote, expected to take place on December 30."

    Telegraph

    Who cares? They don't have the numbers.

    They do have the numbers, not to vote down the deal, but to get rid of Boris.
    Do they? They might just have the #s to force a leadership challenge, but then???
    There's a lot of MPs unhappy with Boris over the virus handling, piss the hard brexit crew off and they will easily have the numbers.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Scott_xP said:

    I very much doubt the UK will rejoin in the future as our trading agreements with the rest of the world will change quite dramatically

    They will be much smaller than they are now...
    We are not even members of TPP yet and that market will dwarf the EU

    Furthermore, we will continue trading with the EU

    I do not want to be unkind but despite your 24/7 anti brexit postings you have failed
    You too. You voted Remain.
  • nichomar said:

    Fenman said:

    Now we will need 10 years work to rejoin

    I very much doubt the UK will rejoin in the future as our trading agreements with the rest of the world will change quite dramatically
    They wouldn’t have us we’re not worth the hassle
    They would in a heart beat if we entered full membership
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    "The Tory MP Sir Bill Cash will lead a "star chamber" of Brexit lawyers including Martin Howe QC in poring over the legal text before giving a verdict to MPs ahead of a vote, expected to take place on December 30."

    Telegraph

    Who cares? They don't have the numbers.

    They do have the numbers, not to vote down the deal, but to get rid of Boris.
    Do they? They might just have the #s to force a leadership challenge, but then???
    There's a lot of MPs unhappy with Boris over the virus handling, piss the hard brexit crew off and they will easily have the numbers.
    Although it’s not just about whether they have a majority. As was proved with May, if about a third of the party vote against him he’s goosed - albeit not immediately - and I think that would be a likely outcome.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    nichomar said:

    Will we be able to put PT back in his box now that the most wonderful deal has been achieved by the worlds best ever leader? Or will we have to put up with years of explanation as to why it’s so good.

    And how it's all good because any ensuing business failures and job losses do not affect him personally.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Wasn’t what he was finally arrested for a state crime? Which can’t be pardoned by the President.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Some pertinent conclusions about the (UK) new variant in this preprint from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine:
    https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf

    Highlights:
    (1) Transmissibility estimated as 56% higher than pre-existing variants
    (2) Increased transmissibility fits the data much better than alternative explanations such as increased susceptibility among children, decreased generation time or (crucially) immune escape. (The last of those conclusions is supportive of hopes that existing vaccines and immunity acquired from previous infections will be protective.)
    (3) The new variant is unlikely to be controllable by a November-style lockdown, without closure of schools and universities (= common sense).
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Scott_xP said:
    Harry Cole is a total embarrassment. When he tries the "I'm a neutral journalist" schtick it is utterly cringe inducing.
  • ydoethur said:

    Worth bearing in mind that this is the first trade deal in history designed to make it harder not easier to trade. On average, economists think it will subtract about 4% from UK GDP in the long run, relative to single market membership. If they are right this cost is far greater than the net payments we made as an EU member. Still, it is better than no deal, and for that at least we should be thankful.

    Well, no it really isn’t, and I say that as a Remainer. The EU wasn’t just about trade, or it’s unlikely we’d ever have left it. It also had major sociopolitical ramifications that were, to put it mildly, not universally popular.

    This deal *is* designed to make trade easier than it would be in a clean break. So from that point of view it might fairly be compared to the free trade deals in the former Soviet Union, or Greenland’s arrangements with Denmark after 1985, which in itself sees your point fail.
    If you are arguing that UK-EU trade won't be harder on Jan 1st after this deal takes effect than on Dec 31st under existing rules then you are demonstrably wrong. Of course it is better than no deal, which is why I said precisely that.
  • MaxPB said:

    "The Tory MP Sir Bill Cash will lead a "star chamber" of Brexit lawyers including Martin Howe QC in poring over the legal text before giving a verdict to MPs ahead of a vote, expected to take place on December 30."

    Telegraph

    Who cares? They don't have the numbers.

    They do have the numbers, not to vote down the deal, but to get rid of Boris.
    Do they? They might just have the #s to force a leadership challenge, but then???
    They may have the 40 needed but not the numbers to beat him post a Brexit deal

    I very much doubt Boris will be going anywhere anytime soon
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,421
    I can't understand why they would be excluded, unless the clowns in Westminster were trying to provoke Scotland into leaving.

  • Simon Coveney, the Irish foreign minister, has said fishing is agreed in principle in the EU Brexit deal but there are still discussions on the details.

    Negotiators are understood to be haggling over individual species and how many can be caught.

    A planned briefing in Brussels on fish at 8.30am has been cancelled as the talks continue.

    Telegrph blog
  • Fenman said:

    Now we will need 10 years work to rejoin

    I very much doubt the UK will rejoin in the future as our trading agreements with the rest of the world will change quite dramatically
    Yet to see them sign any deal that is as good a deal as we have in EU, has anyone any evidence of where they got an improved deal for all the expense and hassle????
    PS: I don't mean a miniscule opportunity like selling stilton to Japan either for worse terms
    From the 1st January the UK is free to strike deals and the biggest prize is the TPP which I expect us to join in the next couple of years, especially as Joe Biden is now likely to take the US into the partnership
    It is hard to see what the TPP has to do with us. Although we might want to strike a trade deal with it, going so far as to join the thing would involve submitting to the sort of foreign rules and arbitration that we have just struggled to escape.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    Mega concession from the EU wrt third country status on agriculture. The whole seed market block is a political fig leaf for them to say they did something despite the UK now not being aligned to EU agricultural standards and still having full export rights. It's a £13m export market by value, literally peanuts but it gives the EU an illusion of control.

    Expect a lot more of these symbolic gestures in the deal for both sides where we or they maintain control over a tiny, tiny portion of some industry but ultimately both sides are free to get on with 99.9% of life and export to each other without too much fuss.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,220

    Nigelb said:

    Congratulations to Boris.
    It’s a historic achievement to avoid a No Deal.
    It really is.

    Admittedly, it was Boris that made No Deal scarily possible since he ousted Theresa May, but he has managed to avert what would have been an economic and political calamity.

    Despite his ill-advised Internal Markets Bill.
    And Cummings being allowed to firebomb half of Whitehall.

    Hopefully Boris will now piss off and let the grown-ups rebuild links into the single market.

    Can you identify any ?
    Any what?
    Grown-ups.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    edited December 2020

    ydoethur said:

    Worth bearing in mind that this is the first trade deal in history designed to make it harder not easier to trade. On average, economists think it will subtract about 4% from UK GDP in the long run, relative to single market membership. If they are right this cost is far greater than the net payments we made as an EU member. Still, it is better than no deal, and for that at least we should be thankful.

    Well, no it really isn’t, and I say that as a Remainer. The EU wasn’t just about trade, or it’s unlikely we’d ever have left it. It also had major sociopolitical ramifications that were, to put it mildly, not universally popular.

    This deal *is* designed to make trade easier than it would be in a clean break. So from that point of view it might fairly be compared to the free trade deals in the former Soviet Union, or Greenland’s arrangements with Denmark after 1985, which in itself sees your point fail.
    If you are arguing that UK-EU trade won't be harder on Jan 1st after this deal takes effect than on Dec 31st under existing rules then you are demonstrably wrong. Of course it is better than no deal, which is why I said precisely that.
    Yes, but my point is that you are making a totally false statement. Your implication is we have negotiated a trade deal to make trade harder. We haven’t. We left a political system, rightly or wrongly, and negotiated a trade deal to free up trade in this new political situation rather than trade on WTO terms. Which actually happens very frequently. So whatever your private views on leave or remain, it is you who is ‘demonstrably wrong’ in your claim that ‘this is the first trade deal in history designed to make it harder not easier to trade.‘
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    The concern I have about Boris is that the potential headlines will be driving the deal rather than the substance.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,725
    Boris is determined to make everyone's Christmas as miserable as possible by announcing a deal, and setting leaver against remainer for ever and a day.
  • Scott_xP said:

    I very much doubt the UK will rejoin in the future as our trading agreements with the rest of the world will change quite dramatically

    They will be much smaller than they are now...
    We are not even members of TPP yet and that market will dwarf the EU

    Furthermore, we will continue trading with the EU

    I do not want to be unkind but despite your 24/7 anti brexit postings you have failed
    You too. You voted Remain.
    I am content to recognise the democratic vote and to leave with a deal
  • Jonathan said:

    The concern I have about Boris is that the potential headlines will be driving the deal rather than the substance.

    No sh*t Sherlock. :smiley:
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    Brexit deal. Boris Falklands EU moment.

    "The EU was a danger to our fish"

    and

    "Just Rejoice at that news a
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Jonathan said:

    The concern I have about Boris is that the potential headlines will be driving the deal rather than the substance.

    Well, the positive from that statement is that there would at least be substance.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Congratulations to Boris.
    It’s a historic achievement to avoid a No Deal.
    It really is.

    Admittedly, it was Boris that made No Deal scarily possible since he ousted Theresa May, but he has managed to avert what would have been an economic and political calamity.

    Despite his ill-advised Internal Markets Bill.
    And Cummings being allowed to firebomb half of Whitehall.

    Hopefully Boris will now piss off and let the grown-ups rebuild links into the single market.

    Can you identify any ?
    Any what?
    Grown-ups.
    No, I honestly can’t see any.
    Maybe with “Brexit” proper out of the way some sanity will return to the body politic.

    It’s been a divisive, maddening, deluding force for four v long years.
  • MaxPB said:

    Mega concession from the EU wrt third country status on agriculture. The whole seed market block is a political fig leaf for them to say they did something despite the UK now not being aligned to EU agricultural standards and still having full export rights. It's a £13m export market by value, literally peanuts but it gives the EU an illusion of control.

    Expect a lot more of these symbolic gestures in the deal for both sides where we or they maintain control over a tiny, tiny portion of some industry but ultimately both sides are free to get on with 99.9% of life and export to each other without too much fuss.

    Aren't our agri standards higher?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,052
    nichomar said:

    Fenman said:

    Now we will need 10 years work to rejoin

    I very much doubt the UK will rejoin in the future as our trading agreements with the rest of the world will change quite dramatically
    They wouldn’t have us we’re not worth the hassle
    £12 billion/year offsets a lot of hassle.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    MaxPB said:

    Mega concession from the EU wrt third country status on agriculture. The whole seed market block is a political fig leaf for them to say they did something despite the UK now not being aligned to EU agricultural standards and still having full export rights. It's a £13m export market by value, literally peanuts but it gives the EU an illusion of control.

    Expect a lot more of these symbolic gestures in the deal for both sides where we or they maintain control over a tiny, tiny portion of some industry but ultimately both sides are free to get on with 99.9% of life and export to each other without too much fuss.

    It is not ‘literally peanuts.’ You can’t grow potatoes from peanuts.
  • Fenman said:

    Now we will need 10 years work to rejoin

    I very much doubt the UK will rejoin in the future as our trading agreements with the rest of the world will change quite dramatically
    Yet to see them sign any deal that is as good a deal as we have in EU, has anyone any evidence of where they got an improved deal for all the expense and hassle????
    PS: I don't mean a miniscule opportunity like selling stilton to Japan either for worse terms
    From the 1st January the UK is free to strike deals and the biggest prize is the TPP which I expect us to join in the next couple of years, especially as Joe Biden is now likely to take the US into the partnership
    It is hard to see what the TPP has to do with us. Although we might want to strike a trade deal with it, going so far as to join the thing would involve submitting to the sort of foreign rules and arbitration that we have just struggled to escape.
    It will be the world's largest trading block once the US joins and avoids a UK-US deal
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Scott_xP said:

    I very much doubt the UK will rejoin in the future as our trading agreements with the rest of the world will change quite dramatically

    They will be much smaller than they are now...
    We are not even members of TPP yet and that market will dwarf the EU

    Furthermore, we will continue trading with the EU

    I do not want to be unkind but despite your 24/7 anti brexit postings you have failed
    You too. You voted Remain.
    I am content to recognise the democratic vote and to leave with a deal
    If by “content” you mean trolling certain Remainers every morning, sure.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,220
    ydoethur said:

    Wasn’t what he was finally arrested for a state crime? Which can’t be pardoned by the President.
    Indeed - and there’s little point in such reductios ad absurdam, given Trump has already pardoned mass murderers.

    Though the mooted posthumous pardon of James Earl Ray might cause a stir.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,052
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Worth bearing in mind that this is the first trade deal in history designed to make it harder not easier to trade. On average, economists think it will subtract about 4% from UK GDP in the long run, relative to single market membership. If they are right this cost is far greater than the net payments we made as an EU member. Still, it is better than no deal, and for that at least we should be thankful.

    Well, no it really isn’t, and I say that as a Remainer. The EU wasn’t just about trade, or it’s unlikely we’d ever have left it. It also had major sociopolitical ramifications that were, to put it mildly, not universally popular.

    This deal *is* designed to make trade easier than it would be in a clean break. So from that point of view it might fairly be compared to the free trade deals in the former Soviet Union, or Greenland’s arrangements with Denmark after 1985, which in itself sees your point fail.
    If you are arguing that UK-EU trade won't be harder on Jan 1st after this deal takes effect than on Dec 31st under existing rules then you are demonstrably wrong. Of course it is better than no deal, which is why I said precisely that.
    Yes, but my point is that you are making a totally false statement. Your implication is we have negotiated a trade deal to make trade harder. We haven’t. We left a political system, rightly or wrongly, and negotiated a trade deal to free up trade in this new political situation rather than trade on WTO terms. Which actually happens very frequently. So whatever your private views on leave or remain, it is you who is ‘demonstrably wrong’ in your claim that ‘this is the first trade deal in history designed to make it harder not easier to trade.‘
    I'm not actually sure what OLB said is true anyway about this being the only trade deal in history that makes trade harder rather than easier. Didn't Trump's recent deal with Mexico and Canada include more barriers than NAFTA?
  • I'm sure this can be sorted down the road if it is such a major problem.
    As if they will care a jot, it is Scotland so of no importance. Four and a half years and that is bit they miss, very appropriate.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,996
    edited December 2020
    MaxPB said:

    Mega concession from the EU wrt third country status on agriculture. The whole seed market block is a political fig leaf for them to say they did something despite the UK now not being aligned to EU agricultural standards and still having full export rights. It's a £13m export market by value, literally peanuts but it gives the EU an illusion of control.

    Expect a lot more of these symbolic gestures in the deal for both sides where we or they maintain control over a tiny, tiny portion of some industry but ultimately both sides are free to get on with 99.9% of life and export to each other without too much fuss.

    ‘Literally’ peanuts?

    Edit: ha, snap! (not literally)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    MaxPB said:

    Mega concession from the EU wrt third country status on agriculture. The whole seed market block is a political fig leaf for them to say they did something despite the UK now not being aligned to EU agricultural standards and still having full export rights. It's a £13m export market by value, literally peanuts but it gives the EU an illusion of control.

    Expect a lot more of these symbolic gestures in the deal for both sides where we or they maintain control over a tiny, tiny portion of some industry but ultimately both sides are free to get on with 99.9% of life and export to each other without too much fuss.

    Aren't our agri standards higher?
    Yes, and the EU weren't willing agree third country status because of that. It's expected that there's now going to be an even bigger divergence but we've got third country status written into the deal. As I said it's a very big concession from them, freedom to diverge whilst maintaining third country status. The potato row is covering up that they've basically given us everything we asked for. Expect there to be serious pushback against it from EU agribusiness in the coming days.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,602

    Congratulations to Boris.
    It’s a historic achievement to avoid a No Deal.
    It really is.

    Admittedly, it was Boris that made No Deal scarily possible since he ousted Theresa May, but he has managed to avert what would have been an economic and political calamity.

    Despite his ill-advised Internal Markets Bill.
    And Cummings being allowed to firebomb half of Whitehall.

    Hopefully Boris will now piss off and let the grown-ups rebuild links into the single market.

    It was all theatre. But he might have accidentally tripped off the stage. Thankfully he hasn't - fingers crossed. We now have a very thin deal on which we can build rather than an acrimonious divorce.
  • Boris is determined to make everyone's Christmas as miserable as possible by announcing a deal, and setting leaver against remainer for ever and a day.

    The die hard remainers and leavers may want to continue their battles but the vast majority will move on
  • And today is the last day that the Johnson government-media complex is in control of the Brexit deal. At the moment, we can all opine on what happens next because it's a matter of opinion. None of us have seen The Deal, let alone it's consequences.

    But by tonight, there will be a real bulky document. People will start going through it. In January, there will be real bulky processes. The lipstick won't stay on forever.

    Maybe it will turn out to be just the job. Maybe. But I would point out that:

    1 Every other attempt to define how to do Brexit has fallen apart under examination.
    2 Johnson is much better at opinion than reality.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001

    We are not even members of TPP yet and that market will dwarf the EU

    Furthermore, we will continue trading with the EU

    Market for what? I think our manufacturing base will continue to shrink given the number of parts we import from the EU. If we join the TPP with the US that will just make it cheaper for them to sell us their crappy cars, and chlorinated chicken.

    I do not want to be unkind but despite your 24/7 anti brexit postings you have failed

    And a Merry Christmas to you too

    Not entirely clear what you think I was doing, or why you think it failed.

    If you mean criticising Brexit, today (assuming they sign the bloody deal) is the best it is ever going to be.

    All of the problems have been mainly theoretical until now. From here on the practical realities start to bite.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    edited December 2020
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Wasn’t what he was finally arrested for a state crime? Which can’t be pardoned by the President.
    Indeed - and there’s little point in such reductios ad absurdam, given Trump has already pardoned mass murderers.

    Though the mooted posthumous pardon of James Earl Ray might cause a stir.
    But that’s a state crime too, AIUI, and therefore even leaving aside the moral dimension it’s not eligible for a Presidential pardon.
  • ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mega concession from the EU wrt third country status on agriculture. The whole seed market block is a political fig leaf for them to say they did something despite the UK now not being aligned to EU agricultural standards and still having full export rights. It's a £13m export market by value, literally peanuts but it gives the EU an illusion of control.

    Expect a lot more of these symbolic gestures in the deal for both sides where we or they maintain control over a tiny, tiny portion of some industry but ultimately both sides are free to get on with 99.9% of life and export to each other without too much fuss.

    It is not ‘literally peanuts.’ You can’t grow potatoes from peanuts.
    It always grates / amuses when people misuse the word "literally", but I fear the battle is now lost.

    https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/literally

    informal
    used to emphasize what you are saying:
    • He missed that kick literally by miles.
    • I was literally bowled over by the news.
  • I can't understand why they would be excluded, unless the clowns in Westminster were trying to provoke Scotland into leaving.
    Well, it’s not like the Scottish agfish sector has traditionally tended to support the Union..
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    Boris is determined to make everyone's Christmas as miserable as possible by announcing a deal, and setting leaver against remainer for ever and a day.

    The die hard remainers and leavers may want to continue their battles but the vast majority will move on
    Rather depends on what happens to people’s jobs and whether the nationalists can be defeated.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    Fishing said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Worth bearing in mind that this is the first trade deal in history designed to make it harder not easier to trade. On average, economists think it will subtract about 4% from UK GDP in the long run, relative to single market membership. If they are right this cost is far greater than the net payments we made as an EU member. Still, it is better than no deal, and for that at least we should be thankful.

    Well, no it really isn’t, and I say that as a Remainer. The EU wasn’t just about trade, or it’s unlikely we’d ever have left it. It also had major sociopolitical ramifications that were, to put it mildly, not universally popular.

    This deal *is* designed to make trade easier than it would be in a clean break. So from that point of view it might fairly be compared to the free trade deals in the former Soviet Union, or Greenland’s arrangements with Denmark after 1985, which in itself sees your point fail.
    If you are arguing that UK-EU trade won't be harder on Jan 1st after this deal takes effect than on Dec 31st under existing rules then you are demonstrably wrong. Of course it is better than no deal, which is why I said precisely that.
    Yes, but my point is that you are making a totally false statement. Your implication is we have negotiated a trade deal to make trade harder. We haven’t. We left a political system, rightly or wrongly, and negotiated a trade deal to free up trade in this new political situation rather than trade on WTO terms. Which actually happens very frequently. So whatever your private views on leave or remain, it is you who is ‘demonstrably wrong’ in your claim that ‘this is the first trade deal in history designed to make it harder not easier to trade.‘
    I'm not actually sure what OLB said is true anyway about this being the only trade deal in history that makes trade harder rather than easier. Didn't Trump's recent deal with Mexico and Canada include more barriers than NAFTA?
    Yes, notably in some areas to protect US industries. We also gave up loads of independent trade deals when we joined the EU. Nations suspend and amend trade deals all the time.
  • Scott_xP said:

    I very much doubt the UK will rejoin in the future as our trading agreements with the rest of the world will change quite dramatically

    They will be much smaller than they are now...
    We are not even members of TPP yet and that market will dwarf the EU

    Furthermore, we will continue trading with the EU

    I do not want to be unkind but despite your 24/7 anti brexit postings you have failed
    You too. You voted Remain.
    I am content to recognise the democratic vote and to leave with a deal
    If by “content” you mean trolling certain Remainers every morning, sure.
    And maybe they should stop trolling those who want a deal and move on
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mega concession from the EU wrt third country status on agriculture. The whole seed market block is a political fig leaf for them to say they did something despite the UK now not being aligned to EU agricultural standards and still having full export rights. It's a £13m export market by value, literally peanuts but it gives the EU an illusion of control.

    Expect a lot more of these symbolic gestures in the deal for both sides where we or they maintain control over a tiny, tiny portion of some industry but ultimately both sides are free to get on with 99.9% of life and export to each other without too much fuss.

    It is not ‘literally peanuts.’ You can’t grow potatoes from peanuts.
    It always grates / amuses when people misuse the word "literally", but I fear the battle is now lost.

    https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/literally

    informal
    used to emphasize what you are saying:
    • He missed that kick literally by miles.
    • I was literally bowled over by the news.
    The asides in Yes Minister (the novelisations) were very good at calling this out:

    My heart was literally in my mouth. [If so, Hacker had a uniquely mobile anatomy - Ed.]
  • MaxPB said:

    . It's a £13m export market

    So the SNP administration will still have plenty left from the £330million COVID relief they’ve held back from Scottish businesses “for Brexit”.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Worth bearing in mind that this is the first trade deal in history designed to make it harder not easier to trade. On average, economists think it will subtract about 4% from UK GDP in the long run, relative to single market membership. If they are right this cost is far greater than the net payments we made as an EU member. Still, it is better than no deal, and for that at least we should be thankful.

    Well, no it really isn’t, and I say that as a Remainer. The EU wasn’t just about trade, or it’s unlikely we’d ever have left it. It also had major sociopolitical ramifications that were, to put it mildly, not universally popular.

    This deal *is* designed to make trade easier than it would be in a clean break. So from that point of view it might fairly be compared to the free trade deals in the former Soviet Union, or Greenland’s arrangements with Denmark after 1985, which in itself sees your point fail.
    If you are arguing that UK-EU trade won't be harder on Jan 1st after this deal takes effect than on Dec 31st under existing rules then you are demonstrably wrong. Of course it is better than no deal, which is why I said precisely that.
    Yes, but my point is that you are making a totally false statement. Your implication is we have negotiated a trade deal to make trade harder. We haven’t. We left a political system, rightly or wrongly, and negotiated a trade deal to free up trade in this new political situation rather than trade on WTO terms. Which actually happens very frequently. So whatever your private views on leave or remain, it is you who is ‘demonstrably wrong’ in your claim that ‘this is the first trade deal in history designed to make it harder not easier to trade.‘
    It is common in analysing trade deals to compare what has been negotiated with what went before, rather than with some hypothetical third scenario. Since I have repeatedly said that the deal is better than this hypothetical third scenario I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. Yes it is better than no deal, but much much worse than our prior arrangements.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Is Hans Gruber a Die Hard remainer?
  • Scott_xP said:

    I very much doubt the UK will rejoin in the future as our trading agreements with the rest of the world will change quite dramatically

    They will be much smaller than they are now...
    We are not even members of TPP yet and that market will dwarf the EU

    Furthermore, we will continue trading with the EU

    I do not want to be unkind but despite your 24/7 anti brexit postings you have failed
    You too. You voted Remain.
    I am content to recognise the democratic vote and to leave with a deal
    If by “content” you mean trolling certain Remainers every morning, sure.
    And maybe they should stop trolling those who want a deal and move on
    Most of those who don't want a deal are Faragists, not remainers.
  • Scott_xP said:

    I very much doubt the UK will rejoin in the future as our trading agreements with the rest of the world will change quite dramatically

    They will be much smaller than they are now...
    We are not even members of TPP yet and that market will dwarf the EU

    Furthermore, we will continue trading with the EU

    I do not want to be unkind but despite your 24/7 anti brexit postings you have failed
    You too. You voted Remain.
    I am content to recognise the democratic vote and to leave with a deal
    If by “content” you mean trolling certain Remainers every morning, sure.
    And maybe they should stop trolling those who want a deal and move on
    If only this forum was run to suit you..
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    edited December 2020

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Worth bearing in mind that this is the first trade deal in history designed to make it harder not easier to trade. On average, economists think it will subtract about 4% from UK GDP in the long run, relative to single market membership. If they are right this cost is far greater than the net payments we made as an EU member. Still, it is better than no deal, and for that at least we should be thankful.

    Well, no it really isn’t, and I say that as a Remainer. The EU wasn’t just about trade, or it’s unlikely we’d ever have left it. It also had major sociopolitical ramifications that were, to put it mildly, not universally popular.

    This deal *is* designed to make trade easier than it would be in a clean break. So from that point of view it might fairly be compared to the free trade deals in the former Soviet Union, or Greenland’s arrangements with Denmark after 1985, which in itself sees your point fail.
    If you are arguing that UK-EU trade won't be harder on Jan 1st after this deal takes effect than on Dec 31st under existing rules then you are demonstrably wrong. Of course it is better than no deal, which is why I said precisely that.
    Yes, but my point is that you are making a totally false statement. Your implication is we have negotiated a trade deal to make trade harder. We haven’t. We left a political system, rightly or wrongly, and negotiated a trade deal to free up trade in this new political situation rather than trade on WTO terms. Which actually happens very frequently. So whatever your private views on leave or remain, it is you who is ‘demonstrably wrong’ in your claim that ‘this is the first trade deal in history designed to make it harder not easier to trade.‘
    It is common in analysing trade deals to compare what has been negotiated with what went before, rather than with some hypothetical third scenario. Since I have repeatedly said that the deal is better than this hypothetical third scenario I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. Yes it is better than no deal, but much much worse than our prior arrangements.
    Yes, but our prior arrangements were not a trade deal, and shouldn’t therefore be compared on a like for like basis.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    ydoethur said:

    Wasn’t what he was finally arrested for a state crime? Which can’t be pardoned by the President.
    He's surely not going to pardon her, is he?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Wonder where we would be today if Trump had won.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Jonathan said:

    Is Hans Gruber a Die Hard remainer?

    Only at Christmas.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mega concession from the EU wrt third country status on agriculture. The whole seed market block is a political fig leaf for them to say they did something despite the UK now not being aligned to EU agricultural standards and still having full export rights. It's a £13m export market by value, literally peanuts but it gives the EU an illusion of control.

    Expect a lot more of these symbolic gestures in the deal for both sides where we or they maintain control over a tiny, tiny portion of some industry but ultimately both sides are free to get on with 99.9% of life and export to each other without too much fuss.

    It is not ‘literally peanuts.’ You can’t grow potatoes from peanuts.
    They won't be able to grow potatoes from UK seeds, either. So it's as good as peanuts.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,220
    edited December 2020
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Wasn’t what he was finally arrested for a state crime? Which can’t be pardoned by the President.
    Indeed - and there’s little point in such reductios ad absurdam, given Trump has already pardoned mass murderers.

    Though the mooted posthumous pardon of James Earl Ray might cause a stir.
    But that’s a state crime too, AIUI, and therefore even leaving aside the moral dimension it’s not eligible for a Presidential pardon.
    True.
This discussion has been closed.