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The other side of the bet. The ethics of political gambling. – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • Cyclefree said:

    Am very busy working.

    Wander in briefly to see what is going on.

    Note that within a few opening posts people are again being called "traitors" for pointing out the obvious.

    Wanders off again.

    The only people who have used the "traitor" word today are Remainers, finding it the only way to obfuscate their inability to defend the timing of the Select Committee report - because it is aimed at helping only the EU, not the UK.....
    I couldn't see anyone use that word.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428

    Cyclefree said:

    Am very busy working.

    Wander in briefly to see what is going on.

    Note that within a few opening posts people are again being called "traitors" for pointing out the obvious.

    Wanders off again.

    The only people who have used the "traitor" word today are Remainers, finding it the only way to obfuscate their inability to defend the timing of the Select Committee report - because it is aimed at helping only the EU, not the UK.....
    It doesn’t help the EU because the EU are already aware we are not ready. Everyone is aware.

    What part of that do you not understand?
  • Cyclefree said:

    Am very busy working.

    Wander in briefly to see what is going on.

    Note that within a few opening posts people are again being called "traitors" for pointing out the obvious.

    Wanders off again.

    The only people who have used the "traitor" word today are Remainers, finding it the only way to obfuscate their inability to defend the timing of the Select Committee report - because it is aimed at helping only the EU, not the UK.....
    It doesn’t help the EU because the EU are already aware we are not ready. Everyone is aware.

    What part of that do you not understand?
    To be honest the EU are not ready either and chaos beckons across Europe, not just in the UK
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Its good that suicides are not obviously up, and possibly down. It may well the recognised effect of national emergency on suicides, that in time of national crisis, the "pull together" factor reduces suicide, for example in wartimes*.

    Locally though new diagnoses of type 2 DM are down by 70% though, so potentially a recording issue.

    *though ample opportunity to conceal suicide in wartime too, so may not be completely valid.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    Nigelb said:

    Jesus are we so far down the post-truth hole that we’re angry that a committee said No Deal was a bad idea

    How can the timing of their report be seen as anything other than telling the UK governmet negotiators "You MUST accept whatever is on the table from the EU"?
    I suspect that you are actually correct. However, the Committee rather than showing Johnson's hand of all the cards, are nervous that he might accidentally fall into no deal Brexit over a handful of mackerel.
    That is ultimately the PM's decision.

    As it always was.

    This is like an incredibly protracted corporate deal, which it is essential for the company to conclude, getting down to a handful of the toughest issues - and then a couple of the non-execs issue a public report criticising your negotiations to date and telling you - and the Board - "Just sign the bloody deal on offer. You will never get anything better."

    With whom do you think the shareholders are going to be pissed off?
    It’s only ‘like’ a corporate deal in the same way it’s like any number of unsatisfactory analogies that have been put forward.
    No, they can be fun, analogies for the EU/UK negotiations, but most are no improvement on Swiss Toni. If I were to try one it would have to capture the word that dominates my word cloud when I think about the process and the outcome.

    Inevitability.

    So, something from fluid mechanics perhaps. A bucket of water draining through 2 holes, one twice the size of the other, each with a bottle positioned to catch the flow. You end up with all the water in the bottles and one bottle has double what the other has. Or maybe it doesn't - as I bet there are people with the relevant expertise here who will point out - but assuming it does, that's a decent analogy imo. Although to make it fit exactly you'd have to picture the bucket draining calmly into the bottles against a backdrop of frenetic, totally inappropriate music.

    Whatever - point is, the process is just like a bucket of water draining into 2 bottles to an unsuitable musical accomplishment, and the Deal is those bottles.

    Johnson then takes the smaller one and brings it back here, holds it up to us and grins, "Look what I've squeezed out of Brussels."

    The big bottle does the rounds of European capitals in similar fashion.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,800
    Morning all :)

    I made the mistake of looking at the Brian Rose website - how about this little gem:

    "We will create the strongest, most resilient citizens in the world who are physically and mentally robust, always prepared for times of crisis. We will do this by proactively implementing early education and practice of a proper diet, daily exercise routine, and the avoidance of smoking and excessive drinking. This topic is close to my heart as I’ve spent the past 9 years educating the world on how to take control of one’s own physical and mental health."

    Here's another corker:

    "We will get London back to school to ensure a bright future for our young people and the socialisation they desperately need for their development. We will remove the culture of fear and implement science-based protocols to safely get our younger generation learning again. We will restore the daily structure of our families and stave off the risk of creating a “lost generation.”

    Like all authoritarians, he is desperate to tell people how they should live, what they should eat and ultimately how they should think. This semi-fascist claptrap is bolstered by a fair slice from the Magic Money Tree - cutting business rates (not sure he can do that) and removing the Congestion Charge (fine but where do you pick up the shortfall?).

    This nonsense will have its fans and he might get into the scrap for third with the LDs and Greens but unless Shaun Bailey does something else incredibly stupid, Rose will get nowhere near the run-off.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jesus are we so far down the post-truth hole that we’re angry that a committee said No Deal was a bad idea

    How can the timing of their report be seen as anything other than telling the UK governmet negotiators "You MUST accept whatever is on the table from the EU"?
    I suspect that you are actually correct. However, the Committee rather than showing Johnson's hand of all the cards, are nervous that he might accidentally fall into no deal Brexit over a handful of mackerel.
    That is ultimately the PM's decision.

    As it always was.

    This is like an incredibly protracted corporate deal, which it is essential for the company to conclude, getting down to a handful of the toughest issues - and then a couple of the non-execs issue a public report criticising your negotiations to date and telling you - and the Board - "Just sign the bloody deal on offer. You will never get anything better."

    With whom do you think the shareholders are going to be pissed off?
    It’s only ‘like’ a corporate deal in the same way it’s like any number of unsatisfactory analogies that have been put forward.
    No, they can be fun, analogies for the EU/UK negotiations, but most are no improvement on Swiss Toni. If I were to try one it would have to capture the word that dominates my word cloud when I think about the process and the outcome.

    Inevitability.

    So, something from fluid mechanics perhaps. A bucket of water draining through 2 holes, one twice the size of the other, each with a bottle positioned to catch the flow. You end up with all the water in the bottles and one bottle has double what the other has. Or maybe it doesn't - as I bet there are people with the relevant expertise here who will point out - but assuming it does, that's a decent analogy imo. Although to make it fit exactly you'd have to picture the bucket draining calmly into the bottles against a backdrop of frenetic, totally inappropriate music.

    Whatever - point is, the process is just like a bucket of water draining into 2 bottles to an unsuitable musical accomplishment, and the Deal is those bottles.

    Johnson then takes the smaller one and brings it back here, holds it up to us and grins, "Look what I've squeezed out of Brussels."

    The big bottle does the rounds of European capitals in similar fashion.
    Rate of flow is regulated by Poiseuilles law, with flow varying amongst other factors with the 4th power of radius.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hagen–Poiseuille_equation

    Though in the case of a bucket would be a short tube.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    Cyclefree said:

    Am very busy working.

    Wander in briefly to see what is going on.

    Note that within a few opening posts people are again being called "traitors" for pointing out the obvious.

    Wanders off again.

    The only people who have used the "traitor" word today are Remainers, finding it the only way to obfuscate their inability to defend the timing of the Select Committee report - because it is aimed at helping only the EU, not the UK.....
    It doesn’t help the EU because the EU are already aware we are not ready. Everyone is aware.

    What part of that do you not understand?
    To be honest the EU are not ready either and chaos beckons across Europe, not just in the UK
    though they can trade normally with the other 26 countries, we cannot trade with any of them, not quite the same kind of disaster or chaos.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Charles said:

    Alistair said:

    Charles said:

    Alistair said:

    Inspired the gob smacking article posted by @ydoethur in the last thread I have a second topic for the Truth and Reconciliation committee after they have dealt with "Why the fuck were the airports kept completely open"

    It is "WTF was up with schools". The idea that someone can state that schools being open did not increase spread of virus is either an astonishing lie or and attempt at word play to avoid rating the truth.

    When the half term break happened cases stopped growing/fell. The attempt to claim no correlation is staggering. Who is so invested in this?

    It was a deliberate choice

    I don’t know if you have school age kids, but having schools closed was massively destructive to their education, mental health and life chances.

    Closing everything else to keep schools open would have been a price worth paying
    Yes I have a school age child. I have talked extensively on here about the challenges of having a spouse of the shielding list as well as having a school age child.

    You are going to need to produce some cites on the "massively destructive to their mental health" when the only studies that have been done say that school age children were less stressed and more relaxed over lockdown.

    Also we didn't close everything else to keep schools open. That would be a decision I could understand. Instead we opened everything and the schools.
    The point of my last paragraph is that schools have a large impact on r0, but there are the first - and if necessary only - thing you open. The fact that the government screwed up is a different point
    Yes, I agree, but falsifying research in order to justify a stubborn adherence to a failed policy when flexibility is urgently needed is outrageous.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    Inspired the gob smacking article posted by @ydoethur in the last thread I have a second topic for the Truth and Reconciliation committee after they have dealt with "Why the fuck were the airports kept completely open"

    It is "WTF was up with schools". The idea that someone can state that schools being open did not increase spread of virus is either an astonishing lie or and attempt at word play to avoid rating the truth.

    When the half term break happened cases stopped growing/fell. The attempt to claim no correlation is staggering. Who is so invested in this?

    The Department for Education.

    But the academics concerned should be facing disciplinary.

    Edit - for those who have not read it, this was the article in question:

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/schools-not-increasing-covid-spread-stay-open-experts-b352746.html

    SAGE, notably, are arguing the exact opposite.

    Edit to the edit - I should point out that Ladhani has spent most of the pandemic downplaying the issue of infections among children.

    https://www.sgul.ac.uk/news/children-found-to-have-made-up-just-1-of-covid-19-cases-during-first-wave-in-england
    Nobody rational or capable of even the most basic analysis could possibly conclude that keeping schools open did not increase the spread of the virus. Of course it did. The much trickier bit is whether the risk of the virus to that age group (and the teaching staff) is sufficient to offset the clear harm of disrupting children's education. The even trickier thing is if your target is an R rate of less than 1, how much of your "1" does having schools open cost and what do you need to do to offset it?

    These are very difficult judgments indeed and I have sympathy with those having to make them. I agree with the government that in constructing the "wish list" of things we can do whilst keeping under R1 schools should be right up there, right at the top. But sometimes it seems even a wish list is a bit of a delusion and we have to accept that no kind of normal life is possible whilst this virus is at play in our society.
    I would agree with much of that. But lying to justify a policy that has failed in the first place due to a wilful blindness to obvious facts is absolutely not on. That’s not Trumpian, it’s Bolivarian.
    What did the late Simon do, to deserve that comment?
    Bolivarian socialism - ie the lying, cheating, thieving, murdering scumbags Chavez and Maduro.
  • malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Am very busy working.

    Wander in briefly to see what is going on.

    Note that within a few opening posts people are again being called "traitors" for pointing out the obvious.

    Wanders off again.

    The only people who have used the "traitor" word today are Remainers, finding it the only way to obfuscate their inability to defend the timing of the Select Committee report - because it is aimed at helping only the EU, not the UK.....
    It doesn’t help the EU because the EU are already aware we are not ready. Everyone is aware.

    What part of that do you not understand?
    To be honest the EU are not ready either and chaos beckons across Europe, not just in the UK
    though they can trade normally with the other 26 countries, we cannot trade with any of them, not quite the same kind of disaster or chaos.
    We are integrated into their economies and a sudden severance is going to effect them as well
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:
    We won’t beg for it, we will simply require airlines to provide it to us
    Lol, would that be the royal ‘we’?
    No, the U.K. as a sovereign entity
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jesus are we so far down the post-truth hole that we’re angry that a committee said No Deal was a bad idea

    How can the timing of their report be seen as anything other than telling the UK governmet negotiators "You MUST accept whatever is on the table from the EU"?
    I suspect that you are actually correct. However, the Committee rather than showing Johnson's hand of all the cards, are nervous that he might accidentally fall into no deal Brexit over a handful of mackerel.
    That is ultimately the PM's decision.

    As it always was.

    This is like an incredibly protracted corporate deal, which it is essential for the company to conclude, getting down to a handful of the toughest issues - and then a couple of the non-execs issue a public report criticising your negotiations to date and telling you - and the Board - "Just sign the bloody deal on offer. You will never get anything better."

    With whom do you think the shareholders are going to be pissed off?
    It’s only ‘like’ a corporate deal in the same way it’s like any number of unsatisfactory analogies that have been put forward.
    No, they can be fun, analogies for the EU/UK negotiations, but most are no improvement on Swiss Toni. If I were to try one it would have to capture the word that dominates my word cloud when I think about the process and the outcome.

    Inevitability.

    So, something from fluid mechanics perhaps. A bucket of water draining through 2 holes, one twice the size of the other, each with a bottle positioned to catch the flow. You end up with all the water in the bottles and one bottle has double what the other has. Or maybe it doesn't - as I bet there are people with the relevant expertise here who will point out - but assuming it does, that's a decent analogy imo. Although to make it fit exactly you'd have to picture the bucket draining calmly into the bottles against a backdrop of frenetic, totally inappropriate music.

    Whatever - point is, the process is just like a bucket of water draining into 2 bottles to an unsuitable musical accomplishment, and the Deal is those bottles.

    Johnson then takes the smaller one and brings it back here, holds it up to us and grins, "Look what I've squeezed out of Brussels."

    The big bottle does the rounds of European capitals in similar fashion.
    Rate of flow is regulated by Poiseuilles law, with flow varying amongst other factors with the 4th power of radius.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hagen–Poiseuille_equation

    Though in the case of a bucket would be a short tube.
    Right. The 4th power of the radius. Excellent. So my analogy just about survives that, I think. The essence is intact.
  • malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Am very busy working.

    Wander in briefly to see what is going on.

    Note that within a few opening posts people are again being called "traitors" for pointing out the obvious.

    Wanders off again.

    The only people who have used the "traitor" word today are Remainers, finding it the only way to obfuscate their inability to defend the timing of the Select Committee report - because it is aimed at helping only the EU, not the UK.....
    It doesn’t help the EU because the EU are already aware we are not ready. Everyone is aware.

    What part of that do you not understand?
    To be honest the EU are not ready either and chaos beckons across Europe, not just in the UK
    though they can trade normally with the other 26 countries, we cannot trade with any of them, not quite the same kind of disaster or chaos.
    We are integrated into their economies and a sudden severance is going to effect them as well
    No one is denying that, but for them it will be an inconvenience. For the UK it will be much worse.
  • malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Am very busy working.

    Wander in briefly to see what is going on.

    Note that within a few opening posts people are again being called "traitors" for pointing out the obvious.

    Wanders off again.

    The only people who have used the "traitor" word today are Remainers, finding it the only way to obfuscate their inability to defend the timing of the Select Committee report - because it is aimed at helping only the EU, not the UK.....
    It doesn’t help the EU because the EU are already aware we are not ready. Everyone is aware.

    What part of that do you not understand?
    To be honest the EU are not ready either and chaos beckons across Europe, not just in the UK
    though they can trade normally with the other 26 countries, we cannot trade with any of them, not quite the same kind of disaster or chaos.
    But they’ll be cut off from...THE UK!!!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828

    malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Am very busy working.

    Wander in briefly to see what is going on.

    Note that within a few opening posts people are again being called "traitors" for pointing out the obvious.

    Wanders off again.

    The only people who have used the "traitor" word today are Remainers, finding it the only way to obfuscate their inability to defend the timing of the Select Committee report - because it is aimed at helping only the EU, not the UK.....
    It doesn’t help the EU because the EU are already aware we are not ready. Everyone is aware.

    What part of that do you not understand?
    To be honest the EU are not ready either and chaos beckons across Europe, not just in the UK
    though they can trade normally with the other 26 countries, we cannot trade with any of them, not quite the same kind of disaster or chaos.
    We are integrated into their economies and a sudden severance is going to effect them as well
    No one is denying that, but for them it will be an inconvenience. For the UK it will be much worse.
    Net over the entire EU it'll be an inconvenience. For some it'll be much worse.
  • malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Am very busy working.

    Wander in briefly to see what is going on.

    Note that within a few opening posts people are again being called "traitors" for pointing out the obvious.

    Wanders off again.

    The only people who have used the "traitor" word today are Remainers, finding it the only way to obfuscate their inability to defend the timing of the Select Committee report - because it is aimed at helping only the EU, not the UK.....
    It doesn’t help the EU because the EU are already aware we are not ready. Everyone is aware.

    What part of that do you not understand?
    To be honest the EU are not ready either and chaos beckons across Europe, not just in the UK
    though they can trade normally with the other 26 countries, we cannot trade with any of them, not quite the same kind of disaster or chaos.
    We are integrated into their economies and a sudden severance is going to effect them as well
    No one is denying that, but for them it will be an inconvenience. For the UK it will be much worse.
    You may be right but I would be surprised if measures were not agreed to mitigate the worst effects over the next 6 months
  • RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Am very busy working.

    Wander in briefly to see what is going on.

    Note that within a few opening posts people are again being called "traitors" for pointing out the obvious.

    Wanders off again.

    The only people who have used the "traitor" word today are Remainers, finding it the only way to obfuscate their inability to defend the timing of the Select Committee report - because it is aimed at helping only the EU, not the UK.....
    It doesn’t help the EU because the EU are already aware we are not ready. Everyone is aware.

    What part of that do you not understand?
    To be honest the EU are not ready either and chaos beckons across Europe, not just in the UK
    though they can trade normally with the other 26 countries, we cannot trade with any of them, not quite the same kind of disaster or chaos.
    We are integrated into their economies and a sudden severance is going to effect them as well
    No one is denying that, but for them it will be an inconvenience. For the UK it will be much worse.
    Net over the entire EU it'll be an inconvenience. For some it'll be much worse.
    But for the UK it will be a major screw-up worse than any EU country will experience
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Am very busy working.

    Wander in briefly to see what is going on.

    Note that within a few opening posts people are again being called "traitors" for pointing out the obvious.

    Wanders off again.

    The only people who have used the "traitor" word today are Remainers, finding it the only way to obfuscate their inability to defend the timing of the Select Committee report - because it is aimed at helping only the EU, not the UK.....
    It doesn’t help the EU because the EU are already aware we are not ready. Everyone is aware.

    What part of that do you not understand?
    To be honest the EU are not ready either and chaos beckons across Europe, not just in the UK
    though they can trade normally with the other 26 countries, we cannot trade with any of them, not quite the same kind of disaster or chaos.
    We are integrated into their economies and a sudden severance is going to effect them as well
    No one is denying that, but for them it will be an inconvenience. For the UK it will be much worse.
    Net over the entire EU it'll be an inconvenience. For some it'll be much worse.
    But for the UK it will be a major screw-up worse than any EU country will experience
    Yes, but let's not try to pretend it won't also be bad for some on the other side.
  • RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Am very busy working.

    Wander in briefly to see what is going on.

    Note that within a few opening posts people are again being called "traitors" for pointing out the obvious.

    Wanders off again.

    The only people who have used the "traitor" word today are Remainers, finding it the only way to obfuscate their inability to defend the timing of the Select Committee report - because it is aimed at helping only the EU, not the UK.....
    It doesn’t help the EU because the EU are already aware we are not ready. Everyone is aware.

    What part of that do you not understand?
    To be honest the EU are not ready either and chaos beckons across Europe, not just in the UK
    though they can trade normally with the other 26 countries, we cannot trade with any of them, not quite the same kind of disaster or chaos.
    We are integrated into their economies and a sudden severance is going to effect them as well
    No one is denying that, but for them it will be an inconvenience. For the UK it will be much worse.
    Net over the entire EU it'll be an inconvenience. For some it'll be much worse.
    But for the UK it will be a major screw-up worse than any EU country will experience
    Not sure Ireland will not be very badly effected
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,800
    Morning again all :)

    Back on topic, gambling - a multi-faceted subject if there ever was one. I'm a gambler - I could imagine myself having a serious problem under the right conditions - it's one of my demons.

    That said, my life of mostly unsuccessful gambling has taught me enough - I enjoy Vegas as a place but I can't play properly there because it would consume me. Twenty five years ago, when I was going racing 100+ days a year, I made a note of every bet. Over the year, for every £1 staked, I got back 88p. That taught me you can't win - in the medium to long term, you can't win. In the short term, by picking your battles, you can ambush the bookies and relieve them of a few quid but you must never chase your winnings (or of course your losses).

    I think there have been societal changes in attitudes to gambling. There has been a backlash against the numbers of betting shops on some High Streets and to the FOBTs and some of the clientele they attract. I wouldn't go into a betting shop on East Ham High Street - they are filled with machine players and no one bets on the horses or dogs (virtual or otherwise).

    The liberalisation of betting which began with the abolition of betting tax and continued in the Blair period hasn't gone unnoticed. Bookmakers "look" rich (some are, many aren't) and for all their undoubted largesse sponsoring races part of me says this is motivated self-interest.

    The Gambling Review will be one of the early tests for incoming BHA chair Julie Harrington, Horse racing's relationship with bookmaking has always been close and often controversial. If societal attitudes are moving towards a less liberal environment for gambling, it's something racing will have to understand and accept. The truth is racing needs the bookies more than the bookies need racing - the big money sport is now football and that's a completely different subject.

    I'd also add that as with every other sector of high street retail, betting shops are under pressure as never before with the continued rise of online gambling. I'd love to see the kind of sports book type environments you see in Vegas where betting is comfortable, enjoyable with food and drink. That's a different model than most bookmakers operate but why couldn't it work in a larger retail environment?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    edited December 2020
    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jesus are we so far down the post-truth hole that we’re angry that a committee said No Deal was a bad idea

    How can the timing of their report be seen as anything other than telling the UK governmet negotiators "You MUST accept whatever is on the table from the EU"?
    I suspect that you are actually correct. However, the Committee rather than showing Johnson's hand of all the cards, are nervous that he might accidentally fall into no deal Brexit over a handful of mackerel.
    That is ultimately the PM's decision.

    As it always was.

    This is like an incredibly protracted corporate deal, which it is essential for the company to conclude, getting down to a handful of the toughest issues - and then a couple of the non-execs issue a public report criticising your negotiations to date and telling you - and the Board - "Just sign the bloody deal on offer. You will never get anything better."

    With whom do you think the shareholders are going to be pissed off?
    It’s only ‘like’ a corporate deal in the same way it’s like any number of unsatisfactory analogies that have been put forward.
    No, they can be fun, analogies for the EU/UK negotiations, but most are no improvement on Swiss Toni. If I were to try one it would have to capture the word that dominates my word cloud when I think about the process and the outcome.

    Inevitability.

    So, something from fluid mechanics perhaps. A bucket of water draining through 2 holes, one twice the size of the other, each with a bottle positioned to catch the flow. You end up with all the water in the bottles and one bottle has double what the other has. Or maybe it doesn't - as I bet there are people with the relevant expertise here who will point out - but assuming it does, that's a decent analogy imo. Although to make it fit exactly you'd have to picture the bucket draining calmly into the bottles against a backdrop of frenetic, totally inappropriate music.

    Whatever - point is, the process is just like a bucket of water draining into 2 bottles to an unsuitable musical accomplishment, and the Deal is those bottles.

    Johnson then takes the smaller one and brings it back here, holds it up to us and grins, "Look what I've squeezed out of Brussels."

    The big bottle does the rounds of European capitals in similar fashion.
    Rate of flow is regulated by Poiseuilles law, with flow varying amongst other factors with the 4th power of radius.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hagen–Poiseuille_equation

    Though in the case of a bucket would be a short tube.
    Right. The 4th power of the radius. Excellent. So my analogy just about survives that, I think. The essence is intact.
    The law is really applicable to blood vessels, possibly @Fysics_Teacher could better advise on the fluid dynamics of bucket leakage!

    Timing No Deal to coincide with the New Year holiday, possible bad weather etc even before the peak of the second (third?) Wave of pandemic hits was a bad choice of date. April 1st perhaps would have been a better date for foolishness.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Am very busy working.

    Wander in briefly to see what is going on.

    Note that within a few opening posts people are again being called "traitors" for pointing out the obvious.

    Wanders off again.

    The only people who have used the "traitor" word today are Remainers, finding it the only way to obfuscate their inability to defend the timing of the Select Committee report - because it is aimed at helping only the EU, not the UK.....
    It doesn’t help the EU because the EU are already aware we are not ready. Everyone is aware.

    What part of that do you not understand?
    To be honest the EU are not ready either and chaos beckons across Europe, not just in the UK
    though they can trade normally with the other 26 countries, we cannot trade with any of them, not quite the same kind of disaster or chaos.
    We are integrated into their economies and a sudden severance is going to effect them as well
    Still I say again to a much lesser extant than to ours , they have significantly less trading with us than we do with them. If I am owed £100 and you are owed a £1000, when the bank goes bust who is most affected assuming we are both financially equal.
  • RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Am very busy working.

    Wander in briefly to see what is going on.

    Note that within a few opening posts people are again being called "traitors" for pointing out the obvious.

    Wanders off again.

    The only people who have used the "traitor" word today are Remainers, finding it the only way to obfuscate their inability to defend the timing of the Select Committee report - because it is aimed at helping only the EU, not the UK.....
    It doesn’t help the EU because the EU are already aware we are not ready. Everyone is aware.

    What part of that do you not understand?
    To be honest the EU are not ready either and chaos beckons across Europe, not just in the UK
    though they can trade normally with the other 26 countries, we cannot trade with any of them, not quite the same kind of disaster or chaos.
    We are integrated into their economies and a sudden severance is going to effect them as well
    No one is denying that, but for them it will be an inconvenience. For the UK it will be much worse.
    Net over the entire EU it'll be an inconvenience. For some it'll be much worse.
    But for the UK it will be a major screw-up worse than any EU country will experience
    Not sure Ireland will not be very badly effected
    No question- though bear in mind that the RoI / NI border is staying open, and the Britain bypassing ferries are available from January.

    They will still be set to be less harmed than the UK. It's basic maths, and hardly leaking a state secret to point it out.
  • So despite these late meetings on Friday, given no smoke signals about any possible Boris press conference for this weekend, I presume no change for now.
  • So despite these late meetings on Friday, given no smoke signals about any possible Boris press conference for this weekend, I presume no change for now.

    Sage are meeting on Monday to provide their recommendations so expect something after that meeting
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,895

    So despite these late meetings on Friday, given no smoke signals about any possible Boris press conference for this weekend, I presume no change for now.

    Are you talking about covid or brexit here :) ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    edited December 2020
    BBC News - Epstein ex-associate Jean-Luc Brunel placed under formal investigation
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55376323

    I wonder if Air Miles Andy is still unable to break sweat?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:



    It’s only ‘like’ a corporate deal in the same way it’s like any number of unsatisfactory analogies that have been put forward.

    I wish I had kept an exhaustive list of all the shit Brexit metaphors we've had. They generally lack the illustrative value necessary to make it to the status of analogy. Off the top of my head I can recall Brexit being likened to:

    Chemotherapy
    Cricket
    Quitting a golf club
    War
    Top Trumps
    Buying sausages, specifically in Aldi
    Having a pet euthanased
    Leaving school
    The Spice Girls splitting up (the UK is Ginger obvs)
    Getting a tattoo (This one actually works. Costs money, fundamentally stupid and painful but reinforces identity.)
    Some rubbish Star Wars film I've never seen
    There’s also TSE’s divorce & expecting BJ one. Up there with the tattoo.
  • RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Am very busy working.

    Wander in briefly to see what is going on.

    Note that within a few opening posts people are again being called "traitors" for pointing out the obvious.

    Wanders off again.

    The only people who have used the "traitor" word today are Remainers, finding it the only way to obfuscate their inability to defend the timing of the Select Committee report - because it is aimed at helping only the EU, not the UK.....
    It doesn’t help the EU because the EU are already aware we are not ready. Everyone is aware.

    What part of that do you not understand?
    To be honest the EU are not ready either and chaos beckons across Europe, not just in the UK
    though they can trade normally with the other 26 countries, we cannot trade with any of them, not quite the same kind of disaster or chaos.
    We are integrated into their economies and a sudden severance is going to effect them as well
    No one is denying that, but for them it will be an inconvenience. For the UK it will be much worse.
    Net over the entire EU it'll be an inconvenience. For some it'll be much worse.
    But for the UK it will be a major screw-up worse than any EU country will experience
    Not sure Ireland will not be very badly effected
    No question- though bear in mind that the RoI / NI border is staying open, and the Britain bypassing ferries are available from January.

    They will still be set to be less harmed than the UK. It's basic maths, and hardly leaking a state secret to point it out.
    As far as I understand it a lot of Ireland exports are for the UK market
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    On the subject of betting, Southampton look way too long against Man City, the way both teams are playing. Should be evens.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    I was having a think about schools and how badly this has been done.

    For this year secondary schools should have been organised to have a two week break every 6 weeks. It's not a perfect solution but it would have been good enough to ensure proper education for the year and give teachers a proper amount of time off from what I can imagine is a very difficult situation. It also gives the nation a regular two week break from secondary school infections to keep the national picture in check until the vaccine is ready for wide roll out.

    The idiotic stance from the DfE has led to more infections and a pretty rubbish year of education for kids who have been constantly interrupted by either having to do the stupid isolation themselves or where they teacher needs to isolate.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Am very busy working.

    Wander in briefly to see what is going on.

    Note that within a few opening posts people are again being called "traitors" for pointing out the obvious.

    Wanders off again.

    The only people who have used the "traitor" word today are Remainers, finding it the only way to obfuscate their inability to defend the timing of the Select Committee report - because it is aimed at helping only the EU, not the UK.....
    It doesn’t help the EU because the EU are already aware we are not ready. Everyone is aware.

    What part of that do you not understand?
    To be honest the EU are not ready either and chaos beckons across Europe, not just in the UK
    though they can trade normally with the other 26 countries, we cannot trade with any of them, not quite the same kind of disaster or chaos.
    We are integrated into their economies and a sudden severance is going to effect them as well
    No one is denying that, but for them it will be an inconvenience. For the UK it will be much worse.
    Net over the entire EU it'll be an inconvenience. For some it'll be much worse.
    But for the UK it will be a major screw-up worse than any EU country will experience
    Not sure Ireland will not be very badly effected
    Somebody suggested that the EU would cut power supplies to the UK through the French and Dutch connectors.

    Now, I’m not saying that’s impossible. I do say it’s unlikely, as that power surplus is used to enable us to export to Ireland, which AIUI has quite low energy security and is a net importer of power.

    So while power reductions might be a bloody nuisance for us, and especially for industry, they would be a catastrophe for Ireland.

    So I’m thinking that is unlikely to happen. It could, but it would be a foolish act by the EU regulators.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895

    It doesn’t help the EU because the EU are already aware we are not ready. Everyone is aware.

    What part of that do you not understand?

    Just imagine what Mark would be saying if the committee waited until after No Deal, and then produced a report saying we aren't ready.

    His anger this morning is deflection from the true culprits, those who wanted Brexit and voted for it.
  • MaxPB said:

    I was having a think about schools and how badly this has been done.

    For this year secondary schools should have been organised to have a two week break every 6 weeks. It's not a perfect solution but it would have been good enough to ensure proper education for the year and give teachers a proper amount of time off from what I can imagine is a very difficult situation. It also gives the nation a regular two week break from secondary school infections to keep the national picture in check until the vaccine is ready for wide roll out.

    The idiotic stance from the DfE has led to more infections and a pretty rubbish year of education for kids who have been constantly interrupted by either having to do the stupid isolation themselves or where they teacher needs to isolate.

    Williamson is on a par with Grayling as one of the most useless government ministers ever
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Am very busy working.

    Wander in briefly to see what is going on.

    Note that within a few opening posts people are again being called "traitors" for pointing out the obvious.

    Wanders off again.

    The only people who have used the "traitor" word today are Remainers, finding it the only way to obfuscate their inability to defend the timing of the Select Committee report - because it is aimed at helping only the EU, not the UK.....
    It doesn’t help the EU because the EU are already aware we are not ready. Everyone is aware.

    What part of that do you not understand?
    To be honest the EU are not ready either and chaos beckons across Europe, not just in the UK
    though they can trade normally with the other 26 countries, we cannot trade with any of them, not quite the same kind of disaster or chaos.
    We are integrated into their economies and a sudden severance is going to effect them as well
    No one is denying that, but for them it will be an inconvenience. For the UK it will be much worse.
    Net over the entire EU it'll be an inconvenience. For some it'll be much worse.
    But for the UK it will be a major screw-up worse than any EU country will experience
    Not sure Ireland will not be very badly effected
    Somebody suggested that the EU would cut power supplies to the UK through the French and Dutch connectors.

    Now, I’m not saying that’s impossible. I do say it’s unlikely, as that power surplus is used to enable us to export to Ireland, which AIUI has quite low energy security and is a net importer of power.

    So while power reductions might be a bloody nuisance for us, and especially for industry, they would be a catastrophe for Ireland.

    So I’m thinking that is unlikely to happen. It could, but it would be a foolish act by the EU regulators.
    Energy isn't an EU competence and we have an interconnect from Norway who really don't want to get involved in EU politics. It would be the companies who generate the energy in France and Belgium deciding not to sell us spare capacity and explaining to their shareholders why they decided to get involved in political games rather than maximise returns.
  • RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Am very busy working.

    Wander in briefly to see what is going on.

    Note that within a few opening posts people are again being called "traitors" for pointing out the obvious.

    Wanders off again.

    The only people who have used the "traitor" word today are Remainers, finding it the only way to obfuscate their inability to defend the timing of the Select Committee report - because it is aimed at helping only the EU, not the UK.....
    It doesn’t help the EU because the EU are already aware we are not ready. Everyone is aware.

    What part of that do you not understand?
    To be honest the EU are not ready either and chaos beckons across Europe, not just in the UK
    though they can trade normally with the other 26 countries, we cannot trade with any of them, not quite the same kind of disaster or chaos.
    We are integrated into their economies and a sudden severance is going to effect them as well
    No one is denying that, but for them it will be an inconvenience. For the UK it will be much worse.
    Net over the entire EU it'll be an inconvenience. For some it'll be much worse.
    But for the UK it will be a major screw-up worse than any EU country will experience
    Not sure Ireland will not be very badly effected
    No question- though bear in mind that the RoI / NI border is staying open, and the Britain bypassing ferries are available from January.

    They will still be set to be less harmed than the UK. It's basic maths, and hardly leaking a state secret to point it out.
    As far as I understand it a lot of Ireland exports are for the UK market
    About 10%, I think. Enough to be a problem, sure, but about a fifth of the problem the UK has with its exports to the EU.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Scott_xP said:

    It doesn’t help the EU because the EU are already aware we are not ready. Everyone is aware.

    What part of that do you not understand?

    Just imagine what Mark would be saying if the committee waited until after No Deal, and then produced a report saying we aren't ready.

    His anger this morning is deflection from the true culprits, those who wanted Brexit and voted for it.
    Those who wanted Brexit are unlikely to be the ones paying for it. They can have their Sovereignty, and let others pick up the tab.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    It doesn’t help the EU because the EU are already aware we are not ready. Everyone is aware.

    What part of that do you not understand?

    Just imagine what Mark would be saying if the committee waited until after No Deal, and then produced a report saying we aren't ready.

    His anger this morning is deflection from the true culprits, those who wanted Brexit and voted for it.
    Those who wanted Brexit are unlikely to be the ones paying for it. They can have their Sovereignty, and let others pick up the tab.
    Car workers in Bridgend, Swindon and Sunderland?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Am very busy working.

    Wander in briefly to see what is going on.

    Note that within a few opening posts people are again being called "traitors" for pointing out the obvious.

    Wanders off again.

    The only people who have used the "traitor" word today are Remainers, finding it the only way to obfuscate their inability to defend the timing of the Select Committee report - because it is aimed at helping only the EU, not the UK.....
    It doesn’t help the EU because the EU are already aware we are not ready. Everyone is aware.

    What part of that do you not understand?
    To be honest the EU are not ready either and chaos beckons across Europe, not just in the UK
    though they can trade normally with the other 26 countries, we cannot trade with any of them, not quite the same kind of disaster or chaos.
    We are integrated into their economies and a sudden severance is going to effect them as well
    No one is denying that, but for them it will be an inconvenience. For the UK it will be much worse.
    Net over the entire EU it'll be an inconvenience. For some it'll be much worse.
    But for the UK it will be a major screw-up worse than any EU country will experience
    Not sure Ireland will not be very badly effected
    No question- though bear in mind that the RoI / NI border is staying open, and the Britain bypassing ferries are available from January.

    They will still be set to be less harmed than the UK. It's basic maths, and hardly leaking a state secret to point it out.
    As far as I understand it a lot of Ireland exports are for the UK market
    About 10%, I think. Enough to be a problem, sure, but about a fifth of the problem the UK has with its exports to the EU.
    In 1970 90% of RoI exports were to the UK, one reason they joined at the same time. It shows how totally different trade dependencies are a half century later.
  • RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Am very busy working.

    Wander in briefly to see what is going on.

    Note that within a few opening posts people are again being called "traitors" for pointing out the obvious.

    Wanders off again.

    The only people who have used the "traitor" word today are Remainers, finding it the only way to obfuscate their inability to defend the timing of the Select Committee report - because it is aimed at helping only the EU, not the UK.....
    It doesn’t help the EU because the EU are already aware we are not ready. Everyone is aware.

    What part of that do you not understand?
    To be honest the EU are not ready either and chaos beckons across Europe, not just in the UK
    though they can trade normally with the other 26 countries, we cannot trade with any of them, not quite the same kind of disaster or chaos.
    We are integrated into their economies and a sudden severance is going to effect them as well
    No one is denying that, but for them it will be an inconvenience. For the UK it will be much worse.
    Net over the entire EU it'll be an inconvenience. For some it'll be much worse.
    But for the UK it will be a major screw-up worse than any EU country will experience
    Not sure Ireland will not be very badly effected
    No question- though bear in mind that the RoI / NI border is staying open, and the Britain bypassing ferries are available from January.

    They will still be set to be less harmed than the UK. It's basic maths, and hardly leaking a state secret to point it out.
    As far as I understand it a lot of Ireland exports are for the UK market
    About 10%, I think. Enough to be a problem, sure, but about a fifth of the problem the UK has with its exports to the EU.
    In 2017

    US 33.3% UK 16.4% Belgium 13.3% Germany 10% Switzerland 6.2%
  • kle4 said:

    Nice reflective header. I like the anecdote about Bridge in California.

    Yes, very good header but I was intrigued about the bridge reference.

    I once had a friend who was a top class player at both bridge and chess. He reckoned bridge was the more skilful game.
    There’s no luck involved in duplicate bridge.

    I played both bridge and chess to a reasonable standard. Chess is much more complex. Bridge is ‘just’ probabilities if you can remember where all the cards are. Bridge is more fun to play though if yiu can get four players of a similar standard together.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    It doesn’t help the EU because the EU are already aware we are not ready. Everyone is aware.

    What part of that do you not understand?

    Just imagine what Mark would be saying if the committee waited until after No Deal, and then produced a report saying we aren't ready.

    His anger this morning is deflection from the true culprits, those who wanted Brexit and voted for it.
    Those who wanted Brexit are unlikely to be the ones paying for it. They can have their Sovereignty, and let others pick up the tab.
    Car workers in Bridgend, Swindon and Sunderland?
    Sure, some folk will be stumping up themselves, but the old folk will still have their triple lock etc. The costs will not predominantly fall on those who voted for it. For them it is a free lunch.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    Inspired the gob smacking article posted by @ydoethur in the last thread I have a second topic for the Truth and Reconciliation committee after they have dealt with "Why the fuck were the airports kept completely open"

    It is "WTF was up with schools". The idea that someone can state that schools being open did not increase spread of virus is either an astonishing lie or and attempt at word play to avoid rating the truth.

    When the half term break happened cases stopped growing/fell. The attempt to claim no correlation is staggering. Who is so invested in this?

    The Department for Education.

    But the academics concerned should be facing disciplinary.

    Edit - for those who have not read it, this was the article in question:

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/schools-not-increasing-covid-spread-stay-open-experts-b352746.html

    SAGE, notably, are arguing the exact opposite.

    Edit to the edit - I should point out that Ladhani has spent most of the pandemic downplaying the issue of infections among children.

    https://www.sgul.ac.uk/news/children-found-to-have-made-up-just-1-of-covid-19-cases-during-first-wave-in-england
    Nobody rational or capable of even the most basic analysis could possibly conclude that keeping schools open did not increase the spread of the virus. Of course it did. The much trickier bit is whether the risk of the virus to that age group (and the teaching staff) is sufficient to offset the clear harm of disrupting children's education. The even trickier thing is if your target is an R rate of less than 1, how much of your "1" does having schools open cost and what do you need to do to offset it?

    These are very difficult judgments indeed and I have sympathy with those having to make them. I agree with the government that in constructing the "wish list" of things we can do whilst keeping under R1 schools should be right up there, right at the top. But sometimes it seems even a wish list is a bit of a delusion and we have to accept that no kind of normal life is possible whilst this virus is at play in our society.
    I would agree with much of that. But lying to justify a policy that has failed in the first place due to a wilful blindness to obvious facts is absolutely not on. That’s not Trumpian, it’s Bolivarian.
    What did the late Simon do, to deserve that comment?
    Bolivarian socialism - ie the lying, cheating, thieving, murdering scumbags Chavez and Maduro.
    Half a moment, YDoethur, before you assemble the disciplinary committees, as a good historian, you need to check the primary source, not the journalistic write-up

    Here, it is (I believe):

    https://tinyurl.com/y72pasrl

    I agree it is a pretty unimpressive, middle-of-the-pack piece of work. But, there is not a huge amount to disagree with there -- it is all pretty unarguable, even mundane.

    In fact, the paper does not even set out to answer the interesting questions, such as the role of asymptomatic cases in schools. It is just a bald statistical analysis of some data that could be done by a semi-competent A Level student.

    The paper does not appear to have any real conclusions -- always the mark of a poorish paper.

    It is the write-up in the Standard which is sloppy & seems to put a spin on the paper which is not present in the original paper & conclusions. Arts graduates, probably 😁

    Certainly, the title in the Standard "Schools do not appear to be increasing the spread of covid and should remain open" does not appear in the scientific paper anywhere, at least as far as I can see.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Am very busy working.

    Wander in briefly to see what is going on.

    Note that within a few opening posts people are again being called "traitors" for pointing out the obvious.

    Wanders off again.

    The only people who have used the "traitor" word today are Remainers, finding it the only way to obfuscate their inability to defend the timing of the Select Committee report - because it is aimed at helping only the EU, not the UK.....
    It doesn’t help the EU because the EU are already aware we are not ready. Everyone is aware.

    What part of that do you not understand?
    To be honest the EU are not ready either and chaos beckons across Europe, not just in the UK
    though they can trade normally with the other 26 countries, we cannot trade with any of them, not quite the same kind of disaster or chaos.
    We are integrated into their economies and a sudden severance is going to effect them as well
    No one is denying that, but for them it will be an inconvenience. For the UK it will be much worse.
    Net over the entire EU it'll be an inconvenience. For some it'll be much worse.
    But for the UK it will be a major screw-up worse than any EU country will experience
    Not sure Ireland will not be very badly effected
    No question- though bear in mind that the RoI / NI border is staying open, and the Britain bypassing ferries are available from January.

    They will still be set to be less harmed than the UK. It's basic maths, and hardly leaking a state secret to point it out.
    As far as I understand it a lot of Ireland exports are for the UK market
    About 10%, I think. Enough to be a problem, sure, but about a fifth of the problem the UK has with its exports to the EU.
    Ireland's trade statistics are absolutely horrible, it's actually very difficult to get a sense of their true import/export positions because of their tax haven status. For example Ireland "exports" iPhones to the rest of the world but in reality is does nothing of the sort. It also "exports" IP and other licencing services across Europe, but again, in reality it's just corporate tax avoidance.

    It's actually part of the GDP vs GNI conversation from earlier this week. You can't take many of Ireland's economic statistics at face value.
  • Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    It doesn’t help the EU because the EU are already aware we are not ready. Everyone is aware.

    What part of that do you not understand?

    Just imagine what Mark would be saying if the committee waited until after No Deal, and then produced a report saying we aren't ready.

    His anger this morning is deflection from the true culprits, those who wanted Brexit and voted for it.
    Those who wanted Brexit are unlikely to be the ones paying for it. They can have their Sovereignty, and let others pick up the tab.
    Car workers in Bridgend, Swindon and Sunderland?
    Sure, some folk will be stumping up themselves, but the old folk will still have their triple lock etc. The costs will not predominantly fall on those who voted for it. For them it is a free lunch.
    The triple lock is morally wrong, especially post covid, and for the benefit of doubt my wife and I do benefit from it
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    edited December 2020

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Am very busy working.

    Wander in briefly to see what is going on.

    Note that within a few opening posts people are again being called "traitors" for pointing out the obvious.

    Wanders off again.

    The only people who have used the "traitor" word today are Remainers, finding it the only way to obfuscate their inability to defend the timing of the Select Committee report - because it is aimed at helping only the EU, not the UK.....
    It doesn’t help the EU because the EU are already aware we are not ready. Everyone is aware.

    What part of that do you not understand?
    To be honest the EU are not ready either and chaos beckons across Europe, not just in the UK
    though they can trade normally with the other 26 countries, we cannot trade with any of them, not quite the same kind of disaster or chaos.
    We are integrated into their economies and a sudden severance is going to effect them as well
    No one is denying that, but for them it will be an inconvenience. For the UK it will be much worse.
    Net over the entire EU it'll be an inconvenience. For some it'll be much worse.
    But for the UK it will be a major screw-up worse than any EU country will experience
    Not sure Ireland will not be very badly effected
    No question- though bear in mind that the RoI / NI border is staying open, and the Britain bypassing ferries are available from January.

    They will still be set to be less harmed than the UK. It's basic maths, and hardly leaking a state secret to point it out.
    As far as I understand it a lot of Ireland exports are for the UK market
    About 10%, I think. Enough to be a problem, sure, but about a fifth of the problem the UK has with its exports to the EU.
    I think about 25% of their imports are from the UK
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    edited December 2020

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    Inspired the gob smacking article posted by @ydoethur in the last thread I have a second topic for the Truth and Reconciliation committee after they have dealt with "Why the fuck were the airports kept completely open"

    It is "WTF was up with schools". The idea that someone can state that schools being open did not increase spread of virus is either an astonishing lie or and attempt at word play to avoid rating the truth.

    When the half term break happened cases stopped growing/fell. The attempt to claim no correlation is staggering. Who is so invested in this?

    The Department for Education.

    But the academics concerned should be facing disciplinary.

    Edit - for those who have not read it, this was the article in question:

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/schools-not-increasing-covid-spread-stay-open-experts-b352746.html

    SAGE, notably, are arguing the exact opposite.

    Edit to the edit - I should point out that Ladhani has spent most of the pandemic downplaying the issue of infections among children.

    https://www.sgul.ac.uk/news/children-found-to-have-made-up-just-1-of-covid-19-cases-during-first-wave-in-england
    Nobody rational or capable of even the most basic analysis could possibly conclude that keeping schools open did not increase the spread of the virus. Of course it did. The much trickier bit is whether the risk of the virus to that age group (and the teaching staff) is sufficient to offset the clear harm of disrupting children's education. The even trickier thing is if your target is an R rate of less than 1, how much of your "1" does having schools open cost and what do you need to do to offset it?

    These are very difficult judgments indeed and I have sympathy with those having to make them. I agree with the government that in constructing the "wish list" of things we can do whilst keeping under R1 schools should be right up there, right at the top. But sometimes it seems even a wish list is a bit of a delusion and we have to accept that no kind of normal life is possible whilst this virus is at play in our society.
    I would agree with much of that. But lying to justify a policy that has failed in the first place due to a wilful blindness to obvious facts is absolutely not on. That’s not Trumpian, it’s Bolivarian.
    What did the late Simon do, to deserve that comment?
    Bolivarian socialism - ie the lying, cheating, thieving, murdering scumbags Chavez and Maduro.
    Half a moment, YDoethur, before you assemble the disciplinary committees, as a good historian, you need to check the primary source, not the journalistic write-up

    Here, it is (I believe):

    https://tinyurl.com/y72pasrl

    I agree it is a pretty unimpressive, middle-of-the-pack piece of work. But, there is not a huge amount to disagree with there -- it is all pretty unarguable, even mundane.

    In fact, the paper does not even set out to answer the interesting questions, such as the role of asymptomatic cases in schools. It is just a bald statistical analysis of some data that could be done by a semi-competent A Level student.

    The paper does not appear to have any real conclusions -- always the mark of a poorish paper.

    It is the write-up in the Standard which is sloppy & seems to put a spin on the paper which is not present in the original paper & conclusions. Arts graduates, probably 😁

    Certainly, the title in the Standard "Schools do not appear to be increasing the spread of covid and should remain open" does not appear in the scientific paper anywhere, at least as far as I can see.
    Here’s what the author retweeted:
    https://twitter.com/PHE_uk/status/1339517263729274887
    So he has endorsed the idea that transmission happens outside schools, not within them, and that schools are therefore suffering because of incidence elsewhere rather than the other way around.

    Which is one possible reading of the evidence they had, but as that ignored the minor detail that case numbers correlate closely with the opening/reopening of schools and universities, not at all the most likely one. That evidence has been ignored, and given his past research record has been to consistently downplay the level of infection among children, it’s hard to believe it’s not deliberate.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Am very busy working.

    Wander in briefly to see what is going on.

    Note that within a few opening posts people are again being called "traitors" for pointing out the obvious.

    Wanders off again.

    The only people who have used the "traitor" word today are Remainers, finding it the only way to obfuscate their inability to defend the timing of the Select Committee report - because it is aimed at helping only the EU, not the UK.....
    It doesn’t help the EU because the EU are already aware we are not ready. Everyone is aware.

    What part of that do you not understand?
    To be honest the EU are not ready either and chaos beckons across Europe, not just in the UK
    though they can trade normally with the other 26 countries, we cannot trade with any of them, not quite the same kind of disaster or chaos.
    We are integrated into their economies and a sudden severance is going to effect them as well
    No one is denying that, but for them it will be an inconvenience. For the UK it will be much worse.
    Net over the entire EU it'll be an inconvenience. For some it'll be much worse.
    But for the UK it will be a major screw-up worse than any EU country will experience
    Yes, but let's not try to pretend it won't also be bad for some on the other side.
    That is a great consolation to me Rob. other people will suffer a small amount so I will be happy suffering a lot knowing that. Tories really are wierd.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,800


    You may be right but I would be surprised if measures were not agreed to mitigate the worst effects over the next 6 months

    Naturally, there's no problem that can't be solved if you throw enough money and resources at it whether it's Covid vaccination or the UK leaving the EU. It should be a matter of record how much taxpayers' money is devoted to mitigating the initial impact of us leaving the EU and the Government should be held accountable for that spending (just as they should for the Covid vaccination programme).

    The bit I don't get is if I were the EU I'd now recognise that I have a problem at each corner. The EU itself may be okay for now (though that may change) but in the UK, Russia, Turkey and North Africa it has, at each corner, a state or an area with which it has to forge a meaningful relationship.

    The UK is a significant economic power, Russia has significant resources on which the EU is dependent quite apart from its military posture. Turkey is a growing regional power with population resources and is the gateway to the Middle East and North Africa remains unstable with an authoritarian Egypt and a fractured Libya and the ever-present issue of migrants from Sub-Saharan Africa as well as Eritrea.

    Most of these comments apply to the UK as well which cannot insulate itself fully, however much some may wish otherwise, from developments in this part of the globe. It seems to me it's therefore in both the UK and EU's interests to have concluded a fairly comfortable basic trading arrangement. So much of what we hear (and I accept that may not be the reality of the discussion) looks like pointless posturing for domestic consumption.

    There's the thing - sometimes Governments need to do things which aren't going to be popular at home but which are in the country's wider interests. We've done it before, I can't quite see why Johnson lacks the courage to do the same now.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Am very busy working.

    Wander in briefly to see what is going on.

    Note that within a few opening posts people are again being called "traitors" for pointing out the obvious.

    Wanders off again.

    The only people who have used the "traitor" word today are Remainers, finding it the only way to obfuscate their inability to defend the timing of the Select Committee report - because it is aimed at helping only the EU, not the UK.....
    It doesn’t help the EU because the EU are already aware we are not ready. Everyone is aware.

    What part of that do you not understand?
    To be honest the EU are not ready either and chaos beckons across Europe, not just in the UK
    though they can trade normally with the other 26 countries, we cannot trade with any of them, not quite the same kind of disaster or chaos.
    We are integrated into their economies and a sudden severance is going to effect them as well
    No one is denying that, but for them it will be an inconvenience. For the UK it will be much worse.
    Net over the entire EU it'll be an inconvenience. For some it'll be much worse.
    But for the UK it will be a major screw-up worse than any EU country will experience
    Not sure Ireland will not be very badly effected
    No question- though bear in mind that the RoI / NI border is staying open, and the Britain bypassing ferries are available from January.

    They will still be set to be less harmed than the UK. It's basic maths, and hardly leaking a state secret to point it out.
    As far as I understand it a lot of Ireland exports are for the UK market
    About 10%, I think. Enough to be a problem, sure, but about a fifth of the problem the UK has with its exports to the EU.
    I think about 25% of their imports are from the UK
    EU will be helping them out as well, whilst UK is Billie no mates.
  • MaxPB said:



    Ireland's trade statistics are absolutely horrible, it's actually very difficult to get a sense of their true import/export positions because of their tax haven status. For example Ireland "exports" iPhones to the rest of the world but in reality is does nothing of the sort. It also "exports" IP and other licencing services across Europe, but again, in reality it's just corporate tax avoidance.

    It's actually part of the GDP vs GNI conversation from earlier this week. You can't take many of Ireland's economic statistics at face value.

    Irelands top 10 exports:
    1 Pharmaceuticals: US$53.5 billion (31.5% of total exports)
    2 Organic chemicals: $35.6 billion (21%)
    3 Optical, technical, medical apparatus: $15.2 billion (9%)
    4 Electrical machinery, equipment: $11.7 billion (6.9%)
    5 Machinery including computers: $9.8 billion (5.7%)
    6 Perfumes, cosmetics: $8.8 billion (5.2%)
    7 Aircraft, spacecraft: $4.6 billion (2.7%)
    8 Other chemical goods: $4.1 billion (2.4%)
    9 Meat: $3.5 billion (2.1%)
    10 Dairy, eggs, honey: $3.4 billion (2%)

    How much of this is made in ROI?
  • ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Am very busy working.

    Wander in briefly to see what is going on.

    Note that within a few opening posts people are again being called "traitors" for pointing out the obvious.

    Wanders off again.

    The only people who have used the "traitor" word today are Remainers, finding it the only way to obfuscate their inability to defend the timing of the Select Committee report - because it is aimed at helping only the EU, not the UK.....
    It doesn’t help the EU because the EU are already aware we are not ready. Everyone is aware.

    What part of that do you not understand?
    To be honest the EU are not ready either and chaos beckons across Europe, not just in the UK
    though they can trade normally with the other 26 countries, we cannot trade with any of them, not quite the same kind of disaster or chaos.
    We are integrated into their economies and a sudden severance is going to effect them as well
    No one is denying that, but for them it will be an inconvenience. For the UK it will be much worse.
    Net over the entire EU it'll be an inconvenience. For some it'll be much worse.
    But for the UK it will be a major screw-up worse than any EU country will experience
    Not sure Ireland will not be very badly effected
    Somebody suggested that the EU would cut power supplies to the UK through the French and Dutch connectors.

    Now, I’m not saying that’s impossible. I do say it’s unlikely, as that power surplus is used to enable us to export to Ireland, which AIUI has quite low energy security and is a net importer of power.

    So while power reductions might be a bloody nuisance for us, and especially for industry, they would be a catastrophe for Ireland.

    So I’m thinking that is unlikely to happen. It could, but it would be a foolish act by the EU regulators.
    There’s a single market In the island of Ireland for electricity. I don’t know how that will be impacted by no deal, but I think it’s so interconnected I can’t see how it would be able to function as separate markets.

    The interconnectors with the EU are fewer in number, two or three at the moment with another one half a dozen planned last time I looked. I would have thought it would be straightforward for either the UK or the EU to apply tariffs to imported electricity if they chose to do so.
  • malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Am very busy working.

    Wander in briefly to see what is going on.

    Note that within a few opening posts people are again being called "traitors" for pointing out the obvious.

    Wanders off again.

    The only people who have used the "traitor" word today are Remainers, finding it the only way to obfuscate their inability to defend the timing of the Select Committee report - because it is aimed at helping only the EU, not the UK.....
    It doesn’t help the EU because the EU are already aware we are not ready. Everyone is aware.

    What part of that do you not understand?
    To be honest the EU are not ready either and chaos beckons across Europe, not just in the UK
    though they can trade normally with the other 26 countries, we cannot trade with any of them, not quite the same kind of disaster or chaos.
    We are integrated into their economies and a sudden severance is going to effect them as well
    No one is denying that, but for them it will be an inconvenience. For the UK it will be much worse.
    Net over the entire EU it'll be an inconvenience. For some it'll be much worse.
    But for the UK it will be a major screw-up worse than any EU country will experience
    Not sure Ireland will not be very badly effected
    No question- though bear in mind that the RoI / NI border is staying open, and the Britain bypassing ferries are available from January.

    They will still be set to be less harmed than the UK. It's basic maths, and hardly leaking a state secret to point it out.
    As far as I understand it a lot of Ireland exports are for the UK market
    About 10%, I think. Enough to be a problem, sure, but about a fifth of the problem the UK has with its exports to the EU.
    I think about 25% of their imports are from the UK
    EU will be helping them out as well, whilst UK is Billie no mates.
    Until they align tax rates across the union
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    Mr Stodge.
    I urge you to reflect on the last paragraph in your last post, viz:
    'There's the thing - sometimes Governments need to do things which aren't going to be popular at home but which are in the country's wider interests. We've done it before, I can't quite see why Johnson lacks the courage to do the same now.'

    Are you quite sure you can't see a reason?
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,055

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    It doesn’t help the EU because the EU are already aware we are not ready. Everyone is aware.

    What part of that do you not understand?

    Just imagine what Mark would be saying if the committee waited until after No Deal, and then produced a report saying we aren't ready.

    His anger this morning is deflection from the true culprits, those who wanted Brexit and voted for it.
    Those who wanted Brexit are unlikely to be the ones paying for it. They can have their Sovereignty, and let others pick up the tab.
    Car workers in Bridgend, Swindon and Sunderland?
    Sure, some folk will be stumping up themselves, but the old folk will still have their triple lock etc. The costs will not predominantly fall on those who voted for it. For them it is a free lunch.
    The triple lock is morally wrong, especially post covid, and for the benefit of doubt my wife and I do benefit from it
    I agree (and I also benefit from it). It's looking back to a time when pensioners were the poorest of the poor. I'm far from wealthy, but even so I'm helping to support related families without enough to live on.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,800
    MaxPB said:

    I was having a think about schools and how badly this has been done.

    For this year secondary schools should have been organised to have a two week break every 6 weeks. It's not a perfect solution but it would have been good enough to ensure proper education for the year and give teachers a proper amount of time off from what I can imagine is a very difficult situation. It also gives the nation a regular two week break from secondary school infections to keep the national picture in check until the vaccine is ready for wide roll out.

    The idiotic stance from the DfE has led to more infections and a pretty rubbish year of education for kids who have been constantly interrupted by either having to do the stupid isolation themselves or where they teacher needs to isolate.

    I don't have any skin in this game but my early observation from when schools returned made me think it wasn't going to end well.

    I had to go to my audiologist in Plaistow and I passed a primary school as the children were leaving and the children and their parents were all walking together down the road - not a mask between them. The only people with masks and gloves were the school staff. IF children are asymptomatic carriers, putting them all back together was fine for the children but simply allowed the virus to start back among the parents.

    That's one reason why we are where we are - there are others and while I'm no friend of this Government, I don't think lately it's been too bad. The decisions not to close the borders in March and to allow infected people back into care homes were outrageous for which, I hope, one day, the relevant Minister will pay with his or her resignation.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    Swing from the Tories and Labour to the LDs, Brexit Party and Greens in the latest Yougov

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1339961179851075586?s=20
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jesus are we so far down the post-truth hole that we’re angry that a committee said No Deal was a bad idea

    How can the timing of their report be seen as anything other than telling the UK governmet negotiators "You MUST accept whatever is on the table from the EU"?
    I suspect that you are actually correct. However, the Committee rather than showing Johnson's hand of all the cards, are nervous that he might accidentally fall into no deal Brexit over a handful of mackerel.
    That is ultimately the PM's decision.

    As it always was.

    This is like an incredibly protracted corporate deal, which it is essential for the company to conclude, getting down to a handful of the toughest issues - and then a couple of the non-execs issue a public report criticising your negotiations to date and telling you - and the Board - "Just sign the bloody deal on offer. You will never get anything better."

    With whom do you think the shareholders are going to be pissed off?
    It’s only ‘like’ a corporate deal in the same way it’s like any number of unsatisfactory analogies that have been put forward.
    No, they can be fun, analogies for the EU/UK negotiations, but most are no improvement on Swiss Toni. If I were to try one it would have to capture the word that dominates my word cloud when I think about the process and the outcome.

    Inevitability.

    So, something from fluid mechanics perhaps. A bucket of water draining through 2 holes, one twice the size of the other, each with a bottle positioned to catch the flow. You end up with all the water in the bottles and one bottle has double what the other has. Or maybe it doesn't - as I bet there are people with the relevant expertise here who will point out - but assuming it does, that's a decent analogy imo. Although to make it fit exactly you'd have to picture the bucket draining calmly into the bottles against a backdrop of frenetic, totally inappropriate music.

    Whatever - point is, the process is just like a bucket of water draining into 2 bottles to an unsuitable musical accomplishment, and the Deal is those bottles.

    Johnson then takes the smaller one and brings it back here, holds it up to us and grins, "Look what I've squeezed out of Brussels."

    The big bottle does the rounds of European capitals in similar fashion.
    Rate of flow is regulated by Poiseuilles law, with flow varying amongst other factors with the 4th power of radius.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hagen–Poiseuille_equation

    Though in the case of a bucket would be a short tube.
    Right. The 4th power of the radius. Excellent. So my analogy just about survives that, I think. The essence is intact.
    The law is really applicable to blood vessels, possibly @Fysics_Teacher could better advise on the fluid dynamics of bucket leakage!

    Timing No Deal to coincide with the New Year holiday, possible bad weather etc even before the peak of the second (third?) Wave of pandemic hits was a bad choice of date. April 1st perhaps would have been a better date for foolishness.
    Yes he will know. If there's 2 holes of different size in a bucket of water, what happens to the water and what precisely does this tell us (if anything at all) about the process of the UK leaving the European Union? I still like it. It's quite high brow, I think.

    Totally agree with you about the nonsense of what's going on. Lots of people and businesses being screwed around for no good reason.
  • RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Am very busy working.

    Wander in briefly to see what is going on.

    Note that within a few opening posts people are again being called "traitors" for pointing out the obvious.

    Wanders off again.

    The only people who have used the "traitor" word today are Remainers, finding it the only way to obfuscate their inability to defend the timing of the Select Committee report - because it is aimed at helping only the EU, not the UK.....
    It doesn’t help the EU because the EU are already aware we are not ready. Everyone is aware.

    What part of that do you not understand?
    To be honest the EU are not ready either and chaos beckons across Europe, not just in the UK
    though they can trade normally with the other 26 countries, we cannot trade with any of them, not quite the same kind of disaster or chaos.
    We are integrated into their economies and a sudden severance is going to effect them as well
    No one is denying that, but for them it will be an inconvenience. For the UK it will be much worse.
    Net over the entire EU it'll be an inconvenience. For some it'll be much worse.
    But for the UK it will be a major screw-up worse than any EU country will experience
    Not sure Ireland will not be very badly effected
    No question- though bear in mind that the RoI / NI border is staying open, and the Britain bypassing ferries are available from January.

    They will still be set to be less harmed than the UK. It's basic maths, and hardly leaking a state secret to point it out.
    As far as I understand it a lot of Ireland exports are for the UK market
    About 10%, I think. Enough to be a problem, sure, but about a fifth of the problem the UK has with its exports to the EU.
    In 2017

    US 33.3% UK 16.4% Belgium 13.3% Germany 10% Switzerland 6.2%
    Figures are a mess, for sure.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/amount-ireland-trades-with-the-uk-4745788-Jul2019/

    But even if you round up the problem for Ireland, and round down the problem for GB, there's a factor of two difference, and Ireland has way more nearby alternatives.
  • RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Am very busy working.

    Wander in briefly to see what is going on.

    Note that within a few opening posts people are again being called "traitors" for pointing out the obvious.

    Wanders off again.

    The only people who have used the "traitor" word today are Remainers, finding it the only way to obfuscate their inability to defend the timing of the Select Committee report - because it is aimed at helping only the EU, not the UK.....
    It doesn’t help the EU because the EU are already aware we are not ready. Everyone is aware.

    What part of that do you not understand?
    To be honest the EU are not ready either and chaos beckons across Europe, not just in the UK
    though they can trade normally with the other 26 countries, we cannot trade with any of them, not quite the same kind of disaster or chaos.
    We are integrated into their economies and a sudden severance is going to effect them as well
    No one is denying that, but for them it will be an inconvenience. For the UK it will be much worse.
    Net over the entire EU it'll be an inconvenience. For some it'll be much worse.
    But for the UK it will be a major screw-up worse than any EU country will experience
    Not sure Ireland will not be very badly effected
    No question- though bear in mind that the RoI / NI border is staying open, and the Britain bypassing ferries are available from January.

    They will still be set to be less harmed than the UK. It's basic maths, and hardly leaking a state secret to point it out.
    As far as I understand it a lot of Ireland exports are for the UK market
    About 10%, I think. Enough to be a problem, sure, but about a fifth of the problem the UK has with its exports to the EU.
    Sadly the very much underplays the problem Ireland is going to have in a No Deal situation. This from the Irish RTE explains why they are so badly exposed.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2017/0913/904427-irish-exports-to-uk/

    "Products of Ireland's agri-food sector are among the EU's most exposed to Brexit, the research showed, led by cereals, fruit and vegetables, almost 90% of which are exported to the UK. "

    "The proportion of food and live animal exports to the UK increased to 46% in 2015 from 38% in 2000, while exports in manufactured goods rose to 55% of the sectors' total exports from 43% over the same time."

    In addition, in 2017 85% of Irish freight trade went through British ports. Now obviously this will have been reducing but the majority of Irish freight exports still currently relies on the UK landbridge.

  • llefllef Posts: 300
    Bad Welsh covid nos today:

    3065 cases reported today with a positive rate of 22.5%

    Merthyr had 228 cases per 100k with a rate of 29%
    Neath had 170 cases per 100k with a rate of 36%
    Newport had 160 cases per 100k with a rate of 26% etc

    I know the daily nos are a bit lumpy due to reporting delays, but the positive rate of tests is nonetheless pretty staggering.

    https://public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
  • Carnyx said:

    Stocky said:

    I`m seeing an old friend today who - I know for sure - will be boring the heck out of me with the conspiracy theory that "they" (he may finger Bill Gates) have put microchips in the vaccines.

    Just so that I don`t lose my shit with the guy has anyone any suggestions on how to counter this ridiculous claim in a calm, succinct and science-based way? (Wouldn`t a micro chip need a power source of some sort?)

    The best retort I have seen is to list all the ways they can already track you if they were so minded (credit cards, social media, phones etc) and then ask why they would need to spend all that money on a vaccine to do what they can already do much more easily.
    And for thatr matter, how does the chip know whom it inhabits? It's not as if they program the chip before injecting it. They just take a few drops out of the phial at a time (AIUI).
    It’s actually a miniaturised submarine crewed by woke secret police reporting back on all the ghastly things we get up to. Bagsy Raquel Welch for my sub.
    More my vintage than yours, surely!
    Raquel is timeless (literally so judging by this recent pic)


  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344

    Carnyx said:

    Stocky said:

    I`m seeing an old friend today who - I know for sure - will be boring the heck out of me with the conspiracy theory that "they" (he may finger Bill Gates) have put microchips in the vaccines.

    Just so that I don`t lose my shit with the guy has anyone any suggestions on how to counter this ridiculous claim in a calm, succinct and science-based way? (Wouldn`t a micro chip need a power source of some sort?)

    The best retort I have seen is to list all the ways they can already track you if they were so minded (credit cards, social media, phones etc) and then ask why they would need to spend all that money on a vaccine to do what they can already do much more easily.
    And for thatr matter, how does the chip know whom it inhabits? It's not as if they program the chip before injecting it. They just take a few drops out of the phial at a time (AIUI).
    It’s actually a miniaturised submarine crewed by woke secret police reporting back on all the ghastly things we get up to. Bagsy Raquel Welch for my sub.
    More my vintage than yours, surely!
    Raquel is timeless (literally so judging by this recent pic)


    Hmmm. Don't think I'll post one of me!
  • kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Tres said:

    Scott_xP said:

    How can the timing of their report be seen as anything other than telling the UK governmet negotiators "You MUST accept whatever is on the table from the EU"?

    Once again Brexiteers outraged by a statement of the bleeding obvious.

    We need a deal. It must be done now.

    Neither of these statements is controversial, unless your head is up your ass.
    But "it must be done now" is only because the Johnson/Cummings/Gove dream team refuse to even consider an additional extension due to the covid crisis.

    Any half rational person facing the situation we are in would roll these discussions on until this time next year. It would still be completed well in time for 2024 when Johnson faces the voters again.
    We needed a deal months ago. Even if one materialises tomorrow Q1 21 will be fucked.
    Yep. When the deal is announced it will be clear it could easily have been done months ago. The last minute shenanigans aspect - and maintaining the public and commentariat fear of no deal - is to help Johnson politically. It will create relief and the optics of battling to the wire with the EU and late concessions being wrung. Also a deal announced a long time before end of Transition would have given more time for critical scrutiny of the detail, not something Johnson would welcome. So, sure, it makes sense from Johnson's point of view to do things this way. It's objectively crazy, though, and unfair on many people. As you say, and as Rochdale's post explains, the effect is to inject the "Deal" outcome with some of the chaos of "No Deal".
    I could not disagree more.

    Yes a deal "could" have been agreed months ago but more importantly one "could not" as without time pressure neither side would compromise. It is why to do it any other way is objectively crazy because to do it any other way means like May/Robbins you're the only one that compromises.

    Asking for an extension as rottenborough and others have suggested is crazy too because again it would just remove the pressure and the can would be kicked.

    I don't often agree with Guy Verhofstadt but completely agree with him the other day when he said compromises are only ever made at the last minute and "if you give extra time to politicians they will take all that extra time and still only compromise at the last minute".
    No - THIS deal could have been done months ago. The reason it wasn't is primarily for the reasons I explained.
    No.

    THIS deal could NOT have been done months ago since the EU have moved in recent months under the time pressure. And they may likely still move again.

    If we move back months ago how would you get the EU to move? Why wouldn't Barnier do what he did under Robbins and May and just take British movements while standing firm?
  • HYUFD said:

    Swing from the Tories and Labour to the LDs, Brexit Party and Greens in the latest Yougov

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1339961179851075586?s=20

    Is that poll not a week old
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    Inspired the gob smacking article posted by @ydoethur in the last thread I have a second topic for the Truth and Reconciliation committee after they have dealt with "Why the fuck were the airports kept completely open"

    It is "WTF was up with schools". The idea that someone can state that schools being open did not increase spread of virus is either an astonishing lie or and attempt at word play to avoid rating the truth.

    When the half term break happened cases stopped growing/fell. The attempt to claim no correlation is staggering. Who is so invested in this?

    The Department for Education.

    But the academics concerned should be facing disciplinary.

    Edit - for those who have not read it, this was the article in question:

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/schools-not-increasing-covid-spread-stay-open-experts-b352746.html

    SAGE, notably, are arguing the exact opposite.

    Edit to the edit - I should point out that Ladhani has spent most of the pandemic downplaying the issue of infections among children.

    https://www.sgul.ac.uk/news/children-found-to-have-made-up-just-1-of-covid-19-cases-during-first-wave-in-england
    Nobody rational or capable of even the most basic analysis could possibly conclude that keeping schools open did not increase the spread of the virus. Of course it did. The much trickier bit is whether the risk of the virus to that age group (and the teaching staff) is sufficient to offset the clear harm of disrupting children's education. The even trickier thing is if your target is an R rate of less than 1, how much of your "1" does having schools open cost and what do you need to do to offset it?

    These are very difficult judgments indeed and I have sympathy with those having to make them. I agree with the government that in constructing the "wish list" of things we can do whilst keeping under R1 schools should be right up there, right at the top. But sometimes it seems even a wish list is a bit of a delusion and we have to accept that no kind of normal life is possible whilst this virus is at play in our society.
    I would agree with much of that. But lying to justify a policy that has failed in the first place due to a wilful blindness to obvious facts is absolutely not on. That’s not Trumpian, it’s Bolivarian.
    What did the late Simon do, to deserve that comment?
    Bolivarian socialism - ie the lying, cheating, thieving, murdering scumbags Chavez and Maduro.
    Half a moment, YDoethur, before you assemble the disciplinary committees, as a good historian, you need to check the primary source, not the journalistic write-up

    Here, it is (I believe):

    https://tinyurl.com/y72pasrl

    I agree it is a pretty unimpressive, middle-of-the-pack piece of work. But, there is not a huge amount to disagree with there -- it is all pretty unarguable, even mundane.

    In fact, the paper does not even set out to answer the interesting questions, such as the role of asymptomatic cases in schools. It is just a bald statistical analysis of some data that could be done by a semi-competent A Level student.

    The paper does not appear to have any real conclusions -- always the mark of a poorish paper.

    It is the write-up in the Standard which is sloppy & seems to put a spin on the paper which is not present in the original paper & conclusions. Arts graduates, probably 😁

    Certainly, the title in the Standard "Schools do not appear to be increasing the spread of covid and should remain open" does not appear in the scientific paper anywhere, at least as far as I can see.
    Here’s what the author retweeted:
    https://twitter.com/PHE_uk/status/1339517263729274887
    So he has endorsed the idea that transmission happens outside schools, not within them, and that schools are therefore suffering because of incidence elsewhere rather than the other way around.

    Which is one possible reading of the evidence they had, but as that ignored the minor detail that case numbers correlate closely with the opening/reopening of schools and universities, not at all the most likely one. That evidence has been ignored, and given his past research record has been to consistently downplay the level of infection among children, it’s hard to believe it’s not deliberate.
    I haven't looked at all of Dr Ladhani's corpus of work, so I can't comment on his entire record. It is also possible that Dr Ladhani is saying things to journalists (which is or is not accurately reported), but that he is more cautious in the written record.

    The tweet (which is from PHE, & so perhaps not written by Dr Ladhani) does not seem to me to say what you claim it does.

    It does not say "transmission happens outside schools".

    It says -- and this is not very surprising -- "rate of infection among staff and students attending schools closely mirrors that which is happening outside school gates".

    I'd pretty much expect that to be the case, within confidence limits.

    The deductions in the Standard article are clearly wrong -- but I am not sure who to blame there.

    My strong prior would be the journalist, though, looking for "a story".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279

    HYUFD said:

    Swing from the Tories and Labour to the LDs, Brexit Party and Greens in the latest Yougov

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1339961179851075586?s=20

    Is that poll not a week old
    I doubt much has changed in a week and the full breakdown only shows the swing
  • Cyclefree said:

    Am very busy working.

    Wander in briefly to see what is going on.

    Note that within a few opening posts people are again being called "traitors" for pointing out the obvious.

    Wanders off again.

    The only people who have used the "traitor" word today are Remainers, finding it the only way to obfuscate their inability to defend the timing of the Select Committee report - because it is aimed at helping only the EU, not the UK.....
    How is it "helping the EU". Specifically.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    Is Gorgeous George not cutting through?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    edited December 2020
    The SNP got 63 seats in 2016 so not a vast change since, plenty of time to squeeze it back.

    It only needs 7 SNP constituency seats to be lost to the Unionist parties thanks to tactical voting on those numbers for the SNP to fail to win a majority
  • Scott_xP said:
    A no deal exit would not be Black Wednesday redux.

    The difference is that on Black Wednesday the UK did everything possible to avoid being ejected from the ERM and failed. Even 15% interest rates couldn't prevent failure. It didn't matter what happened next the Tories had been shown to fail.

    This time is totally different. Walking away wouldn't be a failure it would be a choice. Some may call it a good choice, others may call it a disastrous one. We wouldn't be humiliatingly ejected we would have a rally to the flag cry and say to Europe "so long and thanks for all the fish"

    Totally different circumstances.
  • The strips in the palace v liverpool game are far too similar - daft
  • Marquee can foam on about the select committee but he can't explain why it is is a problem in the "negotiation". We aren't prepared for no deal as the French might have noticed with all those queues on the A16. And we haven't even implemented a hard border yet.

    There is no longer a deal to be done to avoid No Deal. That is simply the de facto arrangement already in effect. As I said earlier diplomacy may take things to the last minute but trade doesn't. We are witnessing the final act of free trade between the UK and our main supply chain counterparty. Send as much stuff as you can in the final days before you stop.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    Inspired the gob smacking article posted by @ydoethur in the last thread I have a second topic for the Truth and Reconciliation committee after they have dealt with "Why the fuck were the airports kept completely open"

    It is "WTF was up with schools". The idea that someone can state that schools being open did not increase spread of virus is either an astonishing lie or and attempt at word play to avoid rating the truth.

    When the half term break happened cases stopped growing/fell. The attempt to claim no correlation is staggering. Who is so invested in this?

    The Department for Education.

    But the academics concerned should be facing disciplinary.

    Edit - for those who have not read it, this was the article in question:

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/schools-not-increasing-covid-spread-stay-open-experts-b352746.html

    SAGE, notably, are arguing the exact opposite.

    Edit to the edit - I should point out that Ladhani has spent most of the pandemic downplaying the issue of infections among children.

    https://www.sgul.ac.uk/news/children-found-to-have-made-up-just-1-of-covid-19-cases-during-first-wave-in-england
    Nobody rational or capable of even the most basic analysis could possibly conclude that keeping schools open did not increase the spread of the virus. Of course it did. The much trickier bit is whether the risk of the virus to that age group (and the teaching staff) is sufficient to offset the clear harm of disrupting children's education. The even trickier thing is if your target is an R rate of less than 1, how much of your "1" does having schools open cost and what do you need to do to offset it?

    These are very difficult judgments indeed and I have sympathy with those having to make them. I agree with the government that in constructing the "wish list" of things we can do whilst keeping under R1 schools should be right up there, right at the top. But sometimes it seems even a wish list is a bit of a delusion and we have to accept that no kind of normal life is possible whilst this virus is at play in our society.
    I would agree with much of that. But lying to justify a policy that has failed in the first place due to a wilful blindness to obvious facts is absolutely not on. That’s not Trumpian, it’s Bolivarian.
    What did the late Simon do, to deserve that comment?
    Bolivarian socialism - ie the lying, cheating, thieving, murdering scumbags Chavez and Maduro.
    Half a moment, YDoethur, before you assemble the disciplinary committees, as a good historian, you need to check the primary source, not the journalistic write-up

    Here, it is (I believe):

    https://tinyurl.com/y72pasrl

    I agree it is a pretty unimpressive, middle-of-the-pack piece of work. But, there is not a huge amount to disagree with there -- it is all pretty unarguable, even mundane.

    In fact, the paper does not even set out to answer the interesting questions, such as the role of asymptomatic cases in schools. It is just a bald statistical analysis of some data that could be done by a semi-competent A Level student.

    The paper does not appear to have any real conclusions -- always the mark of a poorish paper.

    It is the write-up in the Standard which is sloppy & seems to put a spin on the paper which is not present in the original paper & conclusions. Arts graduates, probably 😁

    Certainly, the title in the Standard "Schools do not appear to be increasing the spread of covid and should remain open" does not appear in the scientific paper anywhere, at least as far as I can see.
    Here’s what the author retweeted:
    https://twitter.com/PHE_uk/status/1339517263729274887
    So he has endorsed the idea that transmission happens outside schools, not within them, and that schools are therefore suffering because of incidence elsewhere rather than the other way around.

    Which is one possible reading of the evidence they had, but as that ignored the minor detail that case numbers correlate closely with the opening/reopening of schools and universities, not at all the most likely one. That evidence has been ignored, and given his past research record has been to consistently downplay the level of infection among children, it’s hard to believe it’s not deliberate.
    Correlation isn't causation of course. They reopened at a time of year when the weather was getting cooler and cases were already rising. Importation of the virus by holidaymakers over the summer also seems to have been an issue.
  • HYUFD said:

    The SNP got 63 seats in 2016 so not a vast change since, plenty of time to squeeze it back.

    It only needs 7 SNP constituency seats to be lost to the Unionist parties thanks to tactical voting on those numbers for the SNP to fail to win a majority
    The greens aren't a Unionist Party you knobber. That projection gives the SNP a working majority of 17. I know that as a leading GOPper your only interest in democracy is overturning it, but barring a major scandal or massive change of opinions the SNP will have a comfortable majority on a manifesto of independence.
  • HYUFD said:

    The SNP got 63 seats in 2016 so not a vast change since, plenty of time to squeeze it back.

    It only needs 7 SNP constituency seats to be lost to the Unionist parties thanks to tactical voting on those numbers for the SNP to fail to win a majority
    You didn't answer the last 3 times I asked a similar question. You said if the SNP didn't get an overall majority there was zero chance of another indy referendum being granted. What difference would them getting an overall majority make?
  • Is this "mutant" bug just in the UK?

    If so shouldn't we close our borders to not export it to the rest of the world?

    Or is it just we know about it and the genie is already out of the bottle?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    Foxy said:

    On the subject of betting, Southampton look way too long against Man City, the way both teams are playing. Should be evens.

    Yes, I agree. I`ve just got 6.6 with Smarkets and an enormous 48 on a 2-0 win.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    edited December 2020

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Tres said:

    Scott_xP said:

    How can the timing of their report be seen as anything other than telling the UK governmet negotiators "You MUST accept whatever is on the table from the EU"?

    Once again Brexiteers outraged by a statement of the bleeding obvious.

    We need a deal. It must be done now.

    Neither of these statements is controversial, unless your head is up your ass.
    But "it must be done now" is only because the Johnson/Cummings/Gove dream team refuse to even consider an additional extension due to the covid crisis.

    Any half rational person facing the situation we are in would roll these discussions on until this time next year. It would still be completed well in time for 2024 when Johnson faces the voters again.
    We needed a deal months ago. Even if one materialises tomorrow Q1 21 will be fucked.
    Yep. When the deal is announced it will be clear it could easily have been done months ago. The last minute shenanigans aspect - and maintaining the public and commentariat fear of no deal - is to help Johnson politically. It will create relief and the optics of battling to the wire with the EU and late concessions being wrung. Also a deal announced a long time before end of Transition would have given more time for critical scrutiny of the detail, not something Johnson would welcome. So, sure, it makes sense from Johnson's point of view to do things this way. It's objectively crazy, though, and unfair on many people. As you say, and as Rochdale's post explains, the effect is to inject the "Deal" outcome with some of the chaos of "No Deal".
    I could not disagree more.

    Yes a deal "could" have been agreed months ago but more importantly one "could not" as without time pressure neither side would compromise. It is why to do it any other way is objectively crazy because to do it any other way means like May/Robbins you're the only one that compromises.

    Asking for an extension as rottenborough and others have suggested is crazy too because again it would just remove the pressure and the can would be kicked.

    I don't often agree with Guy Verhofstadt but completely agree with him the other day when he said compromises are only ever made at the last minute and "if you give extra time to politicians they will take all that extra time and still only compromise at the last minute".
    No - THIS deal could have been done months ago. The reason it wasn't is primarily for the reasons I explained.
    No.

    THIS deal could NOT have been done months ago since the EU have moved in recent months under the time pressure. And they may likely still move again.

    If we move back months ago how would you get the EU to move? Why wouldn't Barnier do what he did under Robbins and May and just take British movements while standing firm?
    The narrative Johnson wants is exactly this. That by making the EU take "no deal" seriously and taking negotiations to the wire, we have forced them to make serious concessions which were otherwise not achievable. He'll be pleased - and not a little relieved - that Leavers such as yourself are buying into this. He'll be hoping that some agnostics and even some Remainers will too. We will see. Not long to wait now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    edited December 2020

    HYUFD said:

    The SNP got 63 seats in 2016 so not a vast change since, plenty of time to squeeze it back.

    It only needs 7 SNP constituency seats to be lost to the Unionist parties thanks to tactical voting on those numbers for the SNP to fail to win a majority
    The greens aren't a Unionist Party you knobber. That projection gives the SNP a working majority of 17. I know that as a leading GOPper your only interest in democracy is overturning it, but barring a major scandal or massive change of opinions the SNP will have a comfortable majority on a manifesto of independence.
    There is already an SNP and Green majority now.

    If the SNP fail to get a thumping majority next year after all the hype and huge SNP poll leads it will be as humiliating for Sturgeon as May's failure to get a majority in 2017 was.

  • Is this "mutant" bug just in the UK?

    If so shouldn't we close our borders to not export it to the rest of the world?

    Or is it just we know about it and the genie is already out of the bottle?

    Something remarkably similar is already in South Africa although it looks like that might be due to a similar but separate mutation on the same gene. I suspect this is going to be widespread already.

    That said if I were in charge I would shut down our borders now as it is still possible that the mutation is limited to the UK and South Africa. It seems to me to be the moral thing to do.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895

    Is BJ being..er..BJed in that pic?

    I can't unsee that now
  • HYUFD said:

    The SNP got 63 seats in 2016 so not a vast change since, plenty of time to squeeze it back.

    It only needs 7 SNP constituency seats to be lost to the Unionist parties thanks to tactical voting on those numbers for the SNP to fail to win a majority
    The greens aren't a Unionist Party you knobber. That projection gives the SNP a working majority of 17. I know that as a leading GOPper your only interest in democracy is overturning it, but barring a major scandal or massive change of opinions the SNP will have a comfortable majority on a manifesto of independence.
    He denies being a Trumpist but has as much respect for democracy as him.

    A 17 majority for an independence referendum is as comprehensive as it gets. Anyone who denies that is not a democrat. No if's or buts.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,695

    Is this "mutant" bug just in the UK?

    If so shouldn't we close our borders to not export it to the rest of the world?

    Or is it just we know about it and the genie is already out of the bottle?

    It is elsewhere as well.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Scott_xP said:
    That's a great photo of Johnson. I reckon he keeps that hard hat on when he's giving PNN a sorting out.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    kinabalu said:

    He'll be pleased - and not a little relieved - that Leavers such as yourself are buying into this.

    He is reliant on them still being totally gullible
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    edited December 2020

    HYUFD said:

    The SNP got 63 seats in 2016 so not a vast change since, plenty of time to squeeze it back.

    It only needs 7 SNP constituency seats to be lost to the Unionist parties thanks to tactical voting on those numbers for the SNP to fail to win a majority
    You didn't answer the last 3 times I asked a similar question. You said if the SNP didn't get an overall majority there was zero chance of another indy referendum being granted. What difference would them getting an overall majority make?
    There would be absolutely zero chance of Boris giving the SNP a referendum if the SNP fail to even match the Holyrood majority they got in 2011 before the 2014 independence referendum.

    If the SNP do get a majority Boris will still likely refuse the referendum as UK government policy is 2014 was a once in a generation referendum but Sturgeon would be able to put more pressure on him as a result
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The SNP got 63 seats in 2016 so not a vast change since, plenty of time to squeeze it back.

    It only needs 7 SNP constituency seats to be lost to the Unionist parties thanks to tactical voting on those numbers for the SNP to fail to win a majority
    The greens aren't a Unionist Party you knobber. That projection gives the SNP a working majority of 17. I know that as a leading GOPper your only interest in democracy is overturning it, but barring a major scandal or massive change of opinions the SNP will have a comfortable majority on a manifesto of independence.
    There is already an SNP and Green majority now.

    If the SNP fail to get a thumping majority next year after all the hype and huge SNP poll leads it will be as humiliating for Sturgeon as May's failure to get a majority in 2017 was.

    I know that you are deliberately blinkered. But right now we have a secessionist majority in Holyrood. If we get another secessionist majority in Holyrood - and its highly likely - then your "humiliation" for the SNP will be the opposite.

    You really would be better off sticking to local politics as you know literally nothing about anywhere outside of Essicks.
This discussion has been closed.