We need to get on with the vaccines at super high speed as it is Covid meltdown central at the moment.
A friend's father, 89, who lives in London, got a call today asking him to come in for the vaccine on Friday. Things are moving, although people are having to travel and drop everything at short notice to get it.
The inability of a significant number of people in some areas of the country to observe even the most basic of public health precautions in a desperate attempt to live what they consider a "normal" life has brought us to the point when even a 4-week national "lockdown" (albeit much looser than that in March and April) has failed to significantly slow the virus in some areas and in others case numbers are rising sharply.
There's probably a significant element of truth to that argument, but it may also be that any form of lockdown short of herding people into their homes and nailing or welding the doors shut for a month simply isn't that effective, and may to an extent even be counter-productive. Going in hard and early has failed abysmally in Wales, which probably has a lot to do with incarcerating a lot of not particularly well-off people in cramped, low quality housing with nothing much to do but watch TV. The disease runs through individual households like a dose of salts and then gets passed around when they all get lonely and/or bored to tears, and start visiting each others' houses - something that the authorities, save in truly egregious cases like massive house parties, are essentially powerless to prevent.
In the final analysis, more cautious folk (especially old or rich cautious folk, who may have the luxury of not being forced to go out to work each morning) can exercise discretion, but the disease is going to keep on propagating itself through those who don't care or can't afford to care for the rest of the Winter. I'm still not at all sure how much or how little of the improvement we saw through late Spring and into Summer was to do with all the desperate measures enacted to suppress the virus, and how much was the product of the warm weather. But I suspect that it is mainly the latter.
In short, more and lengthier lockdowns (and I'm as sure as I can be that everyone will be following the Welsh example in fairly short order after Christmas) may take the edge off the illness - at horrendous economic cost - but the only way we're getting any real relief is when a very substantial proportion of the population has been immunised and/or when the warm weather returns. The rest of the Winter is going to be fucking terrible.
Wales has not failed because its lockdown was too early and too hard. It has failed because the lockdown was too short and the exit was too liberal.
I write this from the discomfort of my damp coastal Welsh cave.
A month in lockdown and Dorset figures have plummeted, to the extent that we ought to be in Tier 1. Wealthier and better at dealing with outside activity (the urban areas are all coastal) than many other places must help.
I`ve just had an email from my local LibDem Chair. He say`s he hadn`t heard of the term "woke" until yesterday. He had to look it up. Are you surprised that local party activists have their heads up there arses or is this a common thing in your experience?
Generally speaking, people assume that everyone else is familiar with the language of their circle. I've certainly never heard anyone use the term and I've mainly seen it on PB, but I gather that in right-wing circles it's in common use, always pejoratively. As with "political correctness", the origin was left-wing usage, but it's long since disappeared in any context other than reactionary derision.
A few months ago I saw some newspaper comment pages from 1990.
Did you know what the Mail and Sun called political correctness gone mad?
Equality for gay people.
Attitudes were very different then. And the direction can go both ways.
There were those who thought the paedophile exchange was a good idea in the 70s, and marriage a repressive and outdated institution in the 90s, which civil partnerships would wholly replace one day. And the trans debate/gender identity debate now isn't simple either.
It's good to test the arguments of those making arguments for major social change.
A large part of the PIE issue in the Seventies and Eighties was the usage of the law to criminalise young gay men, as the age of consent was 21 years at the time.
Might have seemed like foresight had they just campaigned to lower it to 16.
Unfortunately, they were campaigning to abolish the age of consent outright, and legalise sex between adults and children; a PIE survey of its members in 1978 and 1979 found that its members were most attracted to girls aged 8–11 and boys aged 11–15.
I am sure that is the case. The more mainstream support was because of the way the law was being used for gay persecution.
It is worth noting that in the age of sexual liberation lusting after nuble youths was also mainstream. John Peel used to have "Schoolgirl of the year" slot in his programme, for example. Some of the other stuff would raise eyebrows now, but was just considered OK at the time.
The inability of a significant number of people in some areas of the country to observe even the most basic of public health precautions in a desperate attempt to live what they consider a "normal" life has brought us to the point when even a 4-week national "lockdown" (albeit much looser than that in March and April) has failed to significantly slow the virus in some areas and in others case numbers are rising sharply.
There's probably a significant element of truth to that argument, but it may also be that any form of lockdown short of herding people into their homes and nailing or welding the doors shut for a month simply isn't that effective, and may to an extent even be counter-productive. Going in hard and early has failed abysmally in Wales, which probably has a lot to do with incarcerating a lot of not particularly well-off people in cramped, low quality housing with nothing much to do but watch TV. The disease runs through individual households like a dose of salts and then gets passed around when they all get lonely and/or bored to tears, and start visiting each others' houses - something that the authorities, save in truly egregious cases like massive house parties, are essentially powerless to prevent.
In the final analysis, more cautious folk (especially old or rich cautious folk, who may have the luxury of not being forced to go out to work each morning) can exercise discretion, but the disease is going to keep on propagating itself through those who don't care or can't afford to care for the rest of the Winter. I'm still not at all sure how much or how little of the improvement we saw through late Spring and into Summer was to do with all the desperate measures enacted to suppress the virus, and how much was the product of the warm weather. But I suspect that it is mainly the latter.
In short, more and lengthier lockdowns (and I'm as sure as I can be that everyone will be following the Welsh example in fairly short order after Christmas) may take the edge off the illness - at horrendous economic cost - but the only way we're getting any real relief is when a very substantial proportion of the population has been immunised and/or when the warm weather returns. The rest of the Winter is going to be fucking terrible.
Wales has not failed because its lockdown was too early and too hard. It has failed because the lockdown was too short and the exit was too liberal.
I write this from the discomfort of my damp coastal Welsh cave.
A month in lockdown and Dorset figures have plummeted, to the extent that we ought to be in Tier 1. Wealthier and better at dealing with outside activity (the urban areas are all coastal) than many other places must help.
I am sure there will be some relaxation announced tomorrow. Top of the list will be the northern cities where numbers are falling going into T2
The inability of a significant number of people in some areas of the country to observe even the most basic of public health precautions in a desperate attempt to live what they consider a "normal" life has brought us to the point when even a 4-week national "lockdown" (albeit much looser than that in March and April) has failed to significantly slow the virus in some areas and in others case numbers are rising sharply.
There's probably a significant element of truth to that argument, but it may also be that any form of lockdown short of herding people into their homes and nailing or welding the doors shut for a month simply isn't that effective, and may to an extent even be counter-productive. Going in hard and early has failed abysmally in Wales, which probably has a lot to do with incarcerating a lot of not particularly well-off people in cramped, low quality housing with nothing much to do but watch TV. The disease runs through individual households like a dose of salts and then gets passed around when they all get lonely and/or bored to tears, and start visiting each others' houses - something that the authorities, save in truly egregious cases like massive house parties, are essentially powerless to prevent.
In the final analysis, more cautious folk (especially old or rich cautious folk, who may have the luxury of not being forced to go out to work each morning) can exercise discretion, but the disease is going to keep on propagating itself through those who don't care or can't afford to care for the rest of the Winter. I'm still not at all sure how much or how little of the improvement we saw through late Spring and into Summer was to do with all the desperate measures enacted to suppress the virus, and how much was the product of the warm weather. But I suspect that it is mainly the latter.
In short, more and lengthier lockdowns (and I'm as sure as I can be that everyone will be following the Welsh example in fairly short order after Christmas) may take the edge off the illness - at horrendous economic cost - but the only way we're getting any real relief is when a very substantial proportion of the population has been immunised and/or when the warm weather returns. The rest of the Winter is going to be fucking terrible.
Wales has not failed because its lockdown was too early and too hard. It has failed because the lockdown was too short and the exit was too liberal.
I write this from the discomfort of my damp coastal Welsh cave.
A month in lockdown and Dorset figures have plummeted, to the extent that we ought to be in Tier 1. Wealthier and better at dealing with outside activity (the urban areas are all coastal) than many other places must help.
I am sure there will be some relaxation announced tomorrow. Top of the list will be the northern cities where numbers are falling going into T2
The inability of a significant number of people in some areas of the country to observe even the most basic of public health precautions in a desperate attempt to live what they consider a "normal" life has brought us to the point when even a 4-week national "lockdown" (albeit much looser than that in March and April) has failed to significantly slow the virus in some areas and in others case numbers are rising sharply.
There's probably a significant element of truth to that argument, but it may also be that any form of lockdown short of herding people into their homes and nailing or welding the doors shut for a month simply isn't that effective, and may to an extent even be counter-productive. Going in hard and early has failed abysmally in Wales, which probably has a lot to do with incarcerating a lot of not particularly well-off people in cramped, low quality housing with nothing much to do but watch TV. The disease runs through individual households like a dose of salts and then gets passed around when they all get lonely and/or bored to tears, and start visiting each others' houses - something that the authorities, save in truly egregious cases like massive house parties, are essentially powerless to prevent.
In the final analysis, more cautious folk (especially old or rich cautious folk, who may have the luxury of not being forced to go out to work each morning) can exercise discretion, but the disease is going to keep on propagating itself through those who don't care or can't afford to care for the rest of the Winter. I'm still not at all sure how much or how little of the improvement we saw through late Spring and into Summer was to do with all the desperate measures enacted to suppress the virus, and how much was the product of the warm weather. But I suspect that it is mainly the latter.
In short, more and lengthier lockdowns (and I'm as sure as I can be that everyone will be following the Welsh example in fairly short order after Christmas) may take the edge off the illness - at horrendous economic cost - but the only way we're getting any real relief is when a very substantial proportion of the population has been immunised and/or when the warm weather returns. The rest of the Winter is going to be fucking terrible.
Wales has not failed because its lockdown was too early and too hard. It has failed because the lockdown was too short and the exit was too liberal.
I write this from the discomfort of my damp coastal Welsh cave.
A month in lockdown and Dorset figures have plummeted, to the extent that we ought to be in Tier 1. Wealthier and better at dealing with outside activity (the urban areas are all coastal) than many other places must help.
I am sure there will be some relaxation announced tomorrow. Top of the list will be the northern cities where numbers are falling going into T2
It's all academic. It'll be back into yet another full national lockdown shortly after Christmas.
The inability of a significant number of people in some areas of the country to observe even the most basic of public health precautions in a desperate attempt to live what they consider a "normal" life has brought us to the point when even a 4-week national "lockdown" (albeit much looser than that in March and April) has failed to significantly slow the virus in some areas and in others case numbers are rising sharply.
There's probably a significant element of truth to that argument, but it may also be that any form of lockdown short of herding people into their homes and nailing or welding the doors shut for a month simply isn't that effective, and may to an extent even be counter-productive. Going in hard and early has failed abysmally in Wales, which probably has a lot to do with incarcerating a lot of not particularly well-off people in cramped, low quality housing with nothing much to do but watch TV. The disease runs through individual households like a dose of salts and then gets passed around when they all get lonely and/or bored to tears, and start visiting each others' houses - something that the authorities, save in truly egregious cases like massive house parties, are essentially powerless to prevent.
In the final analysis, more cautious folk (especially old or rich cautious folk, who may have the luxury of not being forced to go out to work each morning) can exercise discretion, but the disease is going to keep on propagating itself through those who don't care or can't afford to care for the rest of the Winter. I'm still not at all sure how much or how little of the improvement we saw through late Spring and into Summer was to do with all the desperate measures enacted to suppress the virus, and how much was the product of the warm weather. But I suspect that it is mainly the latter.
In short, more and lengthier lockdowns (and I'm as sure as I can be that everyone will be following the Welsh example in fairly short order after Christmas) may take the edge off the illness - at horrendous economic cost - but the only way we're getting any real relief is when a very substantial proportion of the population has been immunised and/or when the warm weather returns. The rest of the Winter is going to be fucking terrible.
Wales has not failed because its lockdown was too early and too hard. It has failed because the lockdown was too short and the exit was too liberal.
I write this from the discomfort of my damp coastal Welsh cave.
A month in lockdown and Dorset figures have plummeted, to the extent that we ought to be in Tier 1. Wealthier and better at dealing with outside activity (the urban areas are all coastal) than many other places must help.
I am sure there will be some relaxation announced tomorrow. Top of the list will be the northern cities where numbers are falling going into T2
You think?
Personally I'd rather everywhere was kept at least where it was till after christmas.
The inability of a significant number of people in some areas of the country to observe even the most basic of public health precautions in a desperate attempt to live what they consider a "normal" life has brought us to the point when even a 4-week national "lockdown" (albeit much looser than that in March and April) has failed to significantly slow the virus in some areas and in others case numbers are rising sharply.
There's probably a significant element of truth to that argument, but it may also be that any form of lockdown short of herding people into their homes and nailing or welding the doors shut for a month simply isn't that effective, and may to an extent even be counter-productive. Going in hard and early has failed abysmally in Wales, which probably has a lot to do with incarcerating a lot of not particularly well-off people in cramped, low quality housing with nothing much to do but watch TV. The disease runs through individual households like a dose of salts and then gets passed around when they all get lonely and/or bored to tears, and start visiting each others' houses - something that the authorities, save in truly egregious cases like massive house parties, are essentially powerless to prevent.
In the final analysis, more cautious folk (especially old or rich cautious folk, who may have the luxury of not being forced to go out to work each morning) can exercise discretion, but the disease is going to keep on propagating itself through those who don't care or can't afford to care for the rest of the Winter. I'm still not at all sure how much or how little of the improvement we saw through late Spring and into Summer was to do with all the desperate measures enacted to suppress the virus, and how much was the product of the warm weather. But I suspect that it is mainly the latter.
In short, more and lengthier lockdowns (and I'm as sure as I can be that everyone will be following the Welsh example in fairly short order after Christmas) may take the edge off the illness - at horrendous economic cost - but the only way we're getting any real relief is when a very substantial proportion of the population has been immunised and/or when the warm weather returns. The rest of the Winter is going to be fucking terrible.
Wales has not failed because its lockdown was too early and too hard. It has failed because the lockdown was too short and the exit was too liberal.
I write this from the discomfort of my damp coastal Welsh cave.
A month in lockdown and Dorset figures have plummeted, to the extent that we ought to be in Tier 1. Wealthier and better at dealing with outside activity (the urban areas are all coastal) than many other places must help.
I am sure there will be some relaxation announced tomorrow. Top of the list will be the northern cities where numbers are falling going into T2
It's all academic. It'll be back into yet another full national lockdown shortly after Christmas.
But it's politics - some recognition for the improvement up north, and trying to address the perceived unfairness given the length of their restrictions. If they make the relaxation from the weekend, it'll make little difference anyway, as you say. For the same reason there might be some extra areas in T1.
The inability of a significant number of people in some areas of the country to observe even the most basic of public health precautions in a desperate attempt to live what they consider a "normal" life has brought us to the point when even a 4-week national "lockdown" (albeit much looser than that in March and April) has failed to significantly slow the virus in some areas and in others case numbers are rising sharply.
There's probably a significant element of truth to that argument, but it may also be that any form of lockdown short of herding people into their homes and nailing or welding the doors shut for a month simply isn't that effective, and may to an extent even be counter-productive. Going in hard and early has failed abysmally in Wales, which probably has a lot to do with incarcerating a lot of not particularly well-off people in cramped, low quality housing with nothing much to do but watch TV. The disease runs through individual households like a dose of salts and then gets passed around when they all get lonely and/or bored to tears, and start visiting each others' houses - something that the authorities, save in truly egregious cases like massive house parties, are essentially powerless to prevent.
In the final analysis, more cautious folk (especially old or rich cautious folk, who may have the luxury of not being forced to go out to work each morning) can exercise discretion, but the disease is going to keep on propagating itself through those who don't care or can't afford to care for the rest of the Winter. I'm still not at all sure how much or how little of the improvement we saw through late Spring and into Summer was to do with all the desperate measures enacted to suppress the virus, and how much was the product of the warm weather. But I suspect that it is mainly the latter.
In short, more and lengthier lockdowns (and I'm as sure as I can be that everyone will be following the Welsh example in fairly short order after Christmas) may take the edge off the illness - at horrendous economic cost - but the only way we're getting any real relief is when a very substantial proportion of the population has been immunised and/or when the warm weather returns. The rest of the Winter is going to be fucking terrible.
Wales has not failed because its lockdown was too early and too hard. It has failed because the lockdown was too short and the exit was too liberal.
I write this from the discomfort of my damp coastal Welsh cave.
A month in lockdown and Dorset figures have plummeted, to the extent that we ought to be in Tier 1. Wealthier and better at dealing with outside activity (the urban areas are all coastal) than many other places must help.
I am sure there will be some relaxation announced tomorrow. Top of the list will be the northern cities where numbers are falling going into T2
You think?
R calculated from case numbers is going up pretty much everywhere
The inability of a significant number of people in some areas of the country to observe even the most basic of public health precautions in a desperate attempt to live what they consider a "normal" life has brought us to the point when even a 4-week national "lockdown" (albeit much looser than that in March and April) has failed to significantly slow the virus in some areas and in others case numbers are rising sharply.
There's probably a significant element of truth to that argument, but it may also be that any form of lockdown short of herding people into their homes and nailing or welding the doors shut for a month simply isn't that effective, and may to an extent even be counter-productive. Going in hard and early has failed abysmally in Wales, which probably has a lot to do with incarcerating a lot of not particularly well-off people in cramped, low quality housing with nothing much to do but watch TV. The disease runs through individual households like a dose of salts and then gets passed around when they all get lonely and/or bored to tears, and start visiting each others' houses - something that the authorities, save in truly egregious cases like massive house parties, are essentially powerless to prevent.
In the final analysis, more cautious folk (especially old or rich cautious folk, who may have the luxury of not being forced to go out to work each morning) can exercise discretion, but the disease is going to keep on propagating itself through those who don't care or can't afford to care for the rest of the Winter. I'm still not at all sure how much or how little of the improvement we saw through late Spring and into Summer was to do with all the desperate measures enacted to suppress the virus, and how much was the product of the warm weather. But I suspect that it is mainly the latter.
In short, more and lengthier lockdowns (and I'm as sure as I can be that everyone will be following the Welsh example in fairly short order after Christmas) may take the edge off the illness - at horrendous economic cost - but the only way we're getting any real relief is when a very substantial proportion of the population has been immunised and/or when the warm weather returns. The rest of the Winter is going to be fucking terrible.
Wales has not failed because its lockdown was too early and too hard. It has failed because the lockdown was too short and the exit was too liberal.
I write this from the discomfort of my damp coastal Welsh cave.
A month in lockdown and Dorset figures have plummeted, to the extent that we ought to be in Tier 1. Wealthier and better at dealing with outside activity (the urban areas are all coastal) than many other places must help.
I am sure there will be some relaxation announced tomorrow. Top of the list will be the northern cities where numbers are falling going into T2
It's all academic. It'll be back into yet another full national lockdown shortly after Christmas.
But it's politics - some recognition for the improvement up north, and trying to address the perceived unfairness given the length of their restrictions. If they make the relaxation from the weekend, it'll make little difference anyway, as you say. For the same reason there might be some extra areas in T1.
We all know that this bullshit is going on for another five or six months. Such gestures are hollow and meaningless and almost nobody will be taken in by them.
Have to wonder what the hell people are doing once the circuit breakers run out.
The evidence surely is that, with no vaccine, the virus was always going to do what the virus was going to do, whatever any administration does. Just like any large scale natural phenomenon.
Maybe we have slowed the virus down and spaced it out, at the cost of enormous collateral damage. But the notion of 'saving lives' is clearly utterly bogus. We may have 'delayed deaths' but at the cost of hastening other deaths, and maybe causing many unnecessary deaths.
Re your 2nd para do you actually think of the logic of what you say? If a hospital gets 10 covid patients in, in a day and another gets a 1000 in, in a day which do you think will result in most deaths both for covid and other causes.
Clearly the hospital that can cope will have less covid deaths because it won't have an overflowing ICU, knackered staff and lack of ventilators. It will also be able to cope better with other potential causes of death such as accidents, cancer etc. So the notion is not bogus, it is blindingly obvious to anyone with half a brain.
You do talk tosh.
And the delayed deaths comment has been covered numerous times, but I will give it another go. The average life expectancy for an 80 year old is 10 years. It is not a 'delayed death' except in the obvious sense of the word.
Even an 80 year old obese man with heart disease has a life expectancy of 5 years (credit More or Less)
Do you know how life expectancy works? With every day you get older your life expectancy increases by a small amount.
The inability of a significant number of people in some areas of the country to observe even the most basic of public health precautions in a desperate attempt to live what they consider a "normal" life has brought us to the point when even a 4-week national "lockdown" (albeit much looser than that in March and April) has failed to significantly slow the virus in some areas and in others case numbers are rising sharply.
There's probably a significant element of truth to that argument, but it may also be that any form of lockdown short of herding people into their homes and nailing or welding the doors shut for a month simply isn't that effective, and may to an extent even be counter-productive. Going in hard and early has failed abysmally in Wales, which probably has a lot to do with incarcerating a lot of not particularly well-off people in cramped, low quality housing with nothing much to do but watch TV. The disease runs through individual households like a dose of salts and then gets passed around when they all get lonely and/or bored to tears, and start visiting each others' houses - something that the authorities, save in truly egregious cases like massive house parties, are essentially powerless to prevent.
In the final analysis, more cautious folk (especially old or rich cautious folk, who may have the luxury of not being forced to go out to work each morning) can exercise discretion, but the disease is going to keep on propagating itself through those who don't care or can't afford to care for the rest of the Winter. I'm still not at all sure how much or how little of the improvement we saw through late Spring and into Summer was to do with all the desperate measures enacted to suppress the virus, and how much was the product of the warm weather. But I suspect that it is mainly the latter.
In short, more and lengthier lockdowns (and I'm as sure as I can be that everyone will be following the Welsh example in fairly short order after Christmas) may take the edge off the illness - at horrendous economic cost - but the only way we're getting any real relief is when a very substantial proportion of the population has been immunised and/or when the warm weather returns. The rest of the Winter is going to be fucking terrible.
Wales has not failed because its lockdown was too early and too hard. It has failed because the lockdown was too short and the exit was too liberal.
I write this from the discomfort of my damp coastal Welsh cave.
A month in lockdown and Dorset figures have plummeted, to the extent that we ought to be in Tier 1. Wealthier and better at dealing with outside activity (the urban areas are all coastal) than many other places must help.
I am sure there will be some relaxation announced tomorrow. Top of the list will be the northern cities where numbers are falling going into T2
It's all academic. It'll be back into yet another full national lockdown shortly after Christmas.
A national lockdown is nailed on from 28 Dec. We will be up to 60,000 daily cases by then.
The inability of a significant number of people in some areas of the country to observe even the most basic of public health precautions in a desperate attempt to live what they consider a "normal" life has brought us to the point when even a 4-week national "lockdown" (albeit much looser than that in March and April) has failed to significantly slow the virus in some areas and in others case numbers are rising sharply.
There's probably a significant element of truth to that argument, but it may also be that any form of lockdown short of herding people into their homes and nailing or welding the doors shut for a month simply isn't that effective, and may to an extent even be counter-productive. Going in hard and early has failed abysmally in Wales, which probably has a lot to do with incarcerating a lot of not particularly well-off people in cramped, low quality housing with nothing much to do but watch TV. The disease runs through individual households like a dose of salts and then gets passed around when they all get lonely and/or bored to tears, and start visiting each others' houses - something that the authorities, save in truly egregious cases like massive house parties, are essentially powerless to prevent.
In the final analysis, more cautious folk (especially old or rich cautious folk, who may have the luxury of not being forced to go out to work each morning) can exercise discretion, but the disease is going to keep on propagating itself through those who don't care or can't afford to care for the rest of the Winter. I'm still not at all sure how much or how little of the improvement we saw through late Spring and into Summer was to do with all the desperate measures enacted to suppress the virus, and how much was the product of the warm weather. But I suspect that it is mainly the latter.
In short, more and lengthier lockdowns (and I'm as sure as I can be that everyone will be following the Welsh example in fairly short order after Christmas) may take the edge off the illness - at horrendous economic cost - but the only way we're getting any real relief is when a very substantial proportion of the population has been immunised and/or when the warm weather returns. The rest of the Winter is going to be fucking terrible.
Wales has not failed because its lockdown was too early and too hard. It has failed because the lockdown was too short and the exit was too liberal.
I write this from the discomfort of my damp coastal Welsh cave.
A month in lockdown and Dorset figures have plummeted, to the extent that we ought to be in Tier 1. Wealthier and better at dealing with outside activity (the urban areas are all coastal) than many other places must help.
Covid is the least of my worries. A "Dingle" managing the Baggies is exercising me more!
The inability of a significant number of people in some areas of the country to observe even the most basic of public health precautions in a desperate attempt to live what they consider a "normal" life has brought us to the point when even a 4-week national "lockdown" (albeit much looser than that in March and April) has failed to significantly slow the virus in some areas and in others case numbers are rising sharply.
There's probably a significant element of truth to that argument, but it may also be that any form of lockdown short of herding people into their homes and nailing or welding the doors shut for a month simply isn't that effective, and may to an extent even be counter-productive. Going in hard and early has failed abysmally in Wales, which probably has a lot to do with incarcerating a lot of not particularly well-off people in cramped, low quality housing with nothing much to do but watch TV. The disease runs through individual households like a dose of salts and then gets passed around when they all get lonely and/or bored to tears, and start visiting each others' houses - something that the authorities, save in truly egregious cases like massive house parties, are essentially powerless to prevent.
In the final analysis, more cautious folk (especially old or rich cautious folk, who may have the luxury of not being forced to go out to work each morning) can exercise discretion, but the disease is going to keep on propagating itself through those who don't care or can't afford to care for the rest of the Winter. I'm still not at all sure how much or how little of the improvement we saw through late Spring and into Summer was to do with all the desperate measures enacted to suppress the virus, and how much was the product of the warm weather. But I suspect that it is mainly the latter.
In short, more and lengthier lockdowns (and I'm as sure as I can be that everyone will be following the Welsh example in fairly short order after Christmas) may take the edge off the illness - at horrendous economic cost - but the only way we're getting any real relief is when a very substantial proportion of the population has been immunised and/or when the warm weather returns. The rest of the Winter is going to be fucking terrible.
Wales has not failed because its lockdown was too early and too hard. It has failed because the lockdown was too short and the exit was too liberal.
I write this from the discomfort of my damp coastal Welsh cave.
A month in lockdown and Dorset figures have plummeted, to the extent that we ought to be in Tier 1. Wealthier and better at dealing with outside activity (the urban areas are all coastal) than many other places must help.
I am sure there will be some relaxation announced tomorrow. Top of the list will be the northern cities where numbers are falling going into T2
It's all academic. It'll be back into yet another full national lockdown shortly after Christmas.
A national lockdown is nailed on from 28 Dec. We will be up to 60,000 daily cases by then.
Still doesn't make sense to lock down Cornwall when cases in London are going through the roof. Introducing a localised tier 4 would be useful though.
The inability of a significant number of people in some areas of the country to observe even the most basic of public health precautions in a desperate attempt to live what they consider a "normal" life has brought us to the point when even a 4-week national "lockdown" (albeit much looser than that in March and April) has failed to significantly slow the virus in some areas and in others case numbers are rising sharply.
There's probably a significant element of truth to that argument, but it may also be that any form of lockdown short of herding people into their homes and nailing or welding the doors shut for a month simply isn't that effective, and may to an extent even be counter-productive. Going in hard and early has failed abysmally in Wales, which probably has a lot to do with incarcerating a lot of not particularly well-off people in cramped, low quality housing with nothing much to do but watch TV. The disease runs through individual households like a dose of salts and then gets passed around when they all get lonely and/or bored to tears, and start visiting each others' houses - something that the authorities, save in truly egregious cases like massive house parties, are essentially powerless to prevent.
In the final analysis, more cautious folk (especially old or rich cautious folk, who may have the luxury of not being forced to go out to work each morning) can exercise discretion, but the disease is going to keep on propagating itself through those who don't care or can't afford to care for the rest of the Winter. I'm still not at all sure how much or how little of the improvement we saw through late Spring and into Summer was to do with all the desperate measures enacted to suppress the virus, and how much was the product of the warm weather. But I suspect that it is mainly the latter.
In short, more and lengthier lockdowns (and I'm as sure as I can be that everyone will be following the Welsh example in fairly short order after Christmas) may take the edge off the illness - at horrendous economic cost - but the only way we're getting any real relief is when a very substantial proportion of the population has been immunised and/or when the warm weather returns. The rest of the Winter is going to be fucking terrible.
Wales has not failed because its lockdown was too early and too hard. It has failed because the lockdown was too short and the exit was too liberal.
I write this from the discomfort of my damp coastal Welsh cave.
A month in lockdown and Dorset figures have plummeted, to the extent that we ought to be in Tier 1. Wealthier and better at dealing with outside activity (the urban areas are all coastal) than many other places must help.
I am sure there will be some relaxation announced tomorrow. Top of the list will be the northern cities where numbers are falling going into T2
It's all academic. It'll be back into yet another full national lockdown shortly after Christmas.
A national lockdown is nailed on from 28 Dec. We will be up to 60,000 daily cases by then.
Still doesn't make sense to lock down Cornwall when cases in London are going through the roof. Introducing a localised tier 4 would be useful though.
The inability of a significant number of people in some areas of the country to observe even the most basic of public health precautions in a desperate attempt to live what they consider a "normal" life has brought us to the point when even a 4-week national "lockdown" (albeit much looser than that in March and April) has failed to significantly slow the virus in some areas and in others case numbers are rising sharply.
There's probably a significant element of truth to that argument, but it may also be that any form of lockdown short of herding people into their homes and nailing or welding the doors shut for a month simply isn't that effective, and may to an extent even be counter-productive. Going in hard and early has failed abysmally in Wales, which probably has a lot to do with incarcerating a lot of not particularly well-off people in cramped, low quality housing with nothing much to do but watch TV. The disease runs through individual households like a dose of salts and then gets passed around when they all get lonely and/or bored to tears, and start visiting each others' houses - something that the authorities, save in truly egregious cases like massive house parties, are essentially powerless to prevent.
In the final analysis, more cautious folk (especially old or rich cautious folk, who may have the luxury of not being forced to go out to work each morning) can exercise discretion, but the disease is going to keep on propagating itself through those who don't care or can't afford to care for the rest of the Winter. I'm still not at all sure how much or how little of the improvement we saw through late Spring and into Summer was to do with all the desperate measures enacted to suppress the virus, and how much was the product of the warm weather. But I suspect that it is mainly the latter.
In short, more and lengthier lockdowns (and I'm as sure as I can be that everyone will be following the Welsh example in fairly short order after Christmas) may take the edge off the illness - at horrendous economic cost - but the only way we're getting any real relief is when a very substantial proportion of the population has been immunised and/or when the warm weather returns. The rest of the Winter is going to be fucking terrible.
Wales has not failed because its lockdown was too early and too hard. It has failed because the lockdown was too short and the exit was too liberal.
I write this from the discomfort of my damp coastal Welsh cave.
A month in lockdown and Dorset figures have plummeted, to the extent that we ought to be in Tier 1. Wealthier and better at dealing with outside activity (the urban areas are all coastal) than many other places must help.
I am sure there will be some relaxation announced tomorrow. Top of the list will be the northern cities where numbers are falling going into T2
It's all academic. It'll be back into yet another full national lockdown shortly after Christmas.
A national lockdown is nailed on from 28 Dec. We will be up to 60,000 daily cases by then.
Still doesn't make sense to lock down Cornwall when cases in London are going through the roof. Introducing a localised tier 4 would be useful though.
You can advance that argument about Wales where the North is being whacked with the same mallet as the South, doesn't mean it won't also happen in England. Nobody's going to make fine distinctions between different local authority areas when the Government is in a state of blind panic and the medics everywhere are issuing continuous deafening screams.
The inability of a significant number of people in some areas of the country to observe even the most basic of public health precautions in a desperate attempt to live what they consider a "normal" life has brought us to the point when even a 4-week national "lockdown" (albeit much looser than that in March and April) has failed to significantly slow the virus in some areas and in others case numbers are rising sharply.
There's probably a significant element of truth to that argument, but it may also be that any form of lockdown short of herding people into their homes and nailing or welding the doors shut for a month simply isn't that effective, and may to an extent even be counter-productive. Going in hard and early has failed abysmally in Wales, which probably has a lot to do with incarcerating a lot of not particularly well-off people in cramped, low quality housing with nothing much to do but watch TV. The disease runs through individual households like a dose of salts and then gets passed around when they all get lonely and/or bored to tears, and start visiting each others' houses - something that the authorities, save in truly egregious cases like massive house parties, are essentially powerless to prevent.
In the final analysis, more cautious folk (especially old or rich cautious folk, who may have the luxury of not being forced to go out to work each morning) can exercise discretion, but the disease is going to keep on propagating itself through those who don't care or can't afford to care for the rest of the Winter. I'm still not at all sure how much or how little of the improvement we saw through late Spring and into Summer was to do with all the desperate measures enacted to suppress the virus, and how much was the product of the warm weather. But I suspect that it is mainly the latter.
In short, more and lengthier lockdowns (and I'm as sure as I can be that everyone will be following the Welsh example in fairly short order after Christmas) may take the edge off the illness - at horrendous economic cost - but the only way we're getting any real relief is when a very substantial proportion of the population has been immunised and/or when the warm weather returns. The rest of the Winter is going to be fucking terrible.
Wales has not failed because its lockdown was too early and too hard. It has failed because the lockdown was too short and the exit was too liberal.
I write this from the discomfort of my damp coastal Welsh cave.
A month in lockdown and Dorset figures have plummeted, to the extent that we ought to be in Tier 1. Wealthier and better at dealing with outside activity (the urban areas are all coastal) than many other places must help.
I am sure there will be some relaxation announced tomorrow. Top of the list will be the northern cities where numbers are falling going into T2
It's all academic. It'll be back into yet another full national lockdown shortly after Christmas.
A national lockdown is nailed on from 28 Dec. We will be up to 60,000 daily cases by then.
Still doesn't make sense to lock down Cornwall when cases in London are going through the roof. Introducing a localised tier 4 would be useful though.
Frankly we need Tier 6 in London at the moment 😠
Nothing will work short of a hard reset of the whole country. Close down industry, close all the shops, turn the army out on the streets, shoot anybody seen out of their house on sight. Continue for a month.
That element of the population that hasn't frozen or starved to death should then be free of the virus.
All you can do with any measure short of that is just slow it down a little.
The inability of a significant number of people in some areas of the country to observe even the most basic of public health precautions in a desperate attempt to live what they consider a "normal" life has brought us to the point when even a 4-week national "lockdown" (albeit much looser than that in March and April) has failed to significantly slow the virus in some areas and in others case numbers are rising sharply.
There's probably a significant element of truth to that argument, but it may also be that any form of lockdown short of herding people into their homes and nailing or welding the doors shut for a month simply isn't that effective, and may to an extent even be counter-productive. Going in hard and early has failed abysmally in Wales, which probably has a lot to do with incarcerating a lot of not particularly well-off people in cramped, low quality housing with nothing much to do but watch TV. The disease runs through individual households like a dose of salts and then gets passed around when they all get lonely and/or bored to tears, and start visiting each others' houses - something that the authorities, save in truly egregious cases like massive house parties, are essentially powerless to prevent.
In the final analysis, more cautious folk (especially old or rich cautious folk, who may have the luxury of not being forced to go out to work each morning) can exercise discretion, but the disease is going to keep on propagating itself through those who don't care or can't afford to care for the rest of the Winter. I'm still not at all sure how much or how little of the improvement we saw through late Spring and into Summer was to do with all the desperate measures enacted to suppress the virus, and how much was the product of the warm weather. But I suspect that it is mainly the latter.
In short, more and lengthier lockdowns (and I'm as sure as I can be that everyone will be following the Welsh example in fairly short order after Christmas) may take the edge off the illness - at horrendous economic cost - but the only way we're getting any real relief is when a very substantial proportion of the population has been immunised and/or when the warm weather returns. The rest of the Winter is going to be fucking terrible.
Wales has not failed because its lockdown was too early and too hard. It has failed because the lockdown was too short and the exit was too liberal.
I write this from the discomfort of my damp coastal Welsh cave.
A month in lockdown and Dorset figures have plummeted, to the extent that we ought to be in Tier 1. Wealthier and better at dealing with outside activity (the urban areas are all coastal) than many other places must help.
I am sure there will be some relaxation announced tomorrow. Top of the list will be the northern cities where numbers are falling going into T2
It's all academic. It'll be back into yet another full national lockdown shortly after Christmas.
But it's politics - some recognition for the improvement up north, and trying to address the perceived unfairness given the length of their restrictions. If they make the relaxation from the weekend, it'll make little difference anyway, as you say. For the same reason there might be some extra areas in T1.
Yes, you can see the government making the tiers a bit more fine-grained, with low-incidence areas (with Tory MPs who have been voluble on this issue) being moved to Tier 1 where they are currently lumped into larger tier 2 regions. It works on public health grounds, on compassionate grounds, and on cynical throw backbenchers a bone before asking for their support on Brexit grounds.
The inability of a significant number of people in some areas of the country to observe even the most basic of public health precautions in a desperate attempt to live what they consider a "normal" life has brought us to the point when even a 4-week national "lockdown" (albeit much looser than that in March and April) has failed to significantly slow the virus in some areas and in others case numbers are rising sharply.
There's probably a significant element of truth to that argument, but it may also be that any form of lockdown short of herding people into their homes and nailing or welding the doors shut for a month simply isn't that effective, and may to an extent even be counter-productive. Going in hard and early has failed abysmally in Wales, which probably has a lot to do with incarcerating a lot of not particularly well-off people in cramped, low quality housing with nothing much to do but watch TV. The disease runs through individual households like a dose of salts and then gets passed around when they all get lonely and/or bored to tears, and start visiting each others' houses - something that the authorities, save in truly egregious cases like massive house parties, are essentially powerless to prevent.
In the final analysis, more cautious folk (especially old or rich cautious folk, who may have the luxury of not being forced to go out to work each morning) can exercise discretion, but the disease is going to keep on propagating itself through those who don't care or can't afford to care for the rest of the Winter. I'm still not at all sure how much or how little of the improvement we saw through late Spring and into Summer was to do with all the desperate measures enacted to suppress the virus, and how much was the product of the warm weather. But I suspect that it is mainly the latter.
In short, more and lengthier lockdowns (and I'm as sure as I can be that everyone will be following the Welsh example in fairly short order after Christmas) may take the edge off the illness - at horrendous economic cost - but the only way we're getting any real relief is when a very substantial proportion of the population has been immunised and/or when the warm weather returns. The rest of the Winter is going to be fucking terrible.
Wales has not failed because its lockdown was too early and too hard. It has failed because the lockdown was too short and the exit was too liberal.
I write this from the discomfort of my damp coastal Welsh cave.
Absolutely spot on and from my detached home by the sea with park behind and mountain views, plus heating on
My wife and I know we are truly blessed and made the right decision in 1976 to buy our home for £15,000
The inability of a significant number of people in some areas of the country to observe even the most basic of public health precautions in a desperate attempt to live what they consider a "normal" life has brought us to the point when even a 4-week national "lockdown" (albeit much looser than that in March and April) has failed to significantly slow the virus in some areas and in others case numbers are rising sharply.
There's probably a significant element of truth to that argument, but it may also be that any form of lockdown short of herding people into their homes and nailing or welding the doors shut for a month simply isn't that effective, and may to an extent even be counter-productive. Going in hard and early has failed abysmally in Wales, which probably has a lot to do with incarcerating a lot of not particularly well-off people in cramped, low quality housing with nothing much to do but watch TV. The disease runs through individual households like a dose of salts and then gets passed around when they all get lonely and/or bored to tears, and start visiting each others' houses - something that the authorities, save in truly egregious cases like massive house parties, are essentially powerless to prevent.
In the final analysis, more cautious folk (especially old or rich cautious folk, who may have the luxury of not being forced to go out to work each morning) can exercise discretion, but the disease is going to keep on propagating itself through those who don't care or can't afford to care for the rest of the Winter. I'm still not at all sure how much or how little of the improvement we saw through late Spring and into Summer was to do with all the desperate measures enacted to suppress the virus, and how much was the product of the warm weather. But I suspect that it is mainly the latter.
In short, more and lengthier lockdowns (and I'm as sure as I can be that everyone will be following the Welsh example in fairly short order after Christmas) may take the edge off the illness - at horrendous economic cost - but the only way we're getting any real relief is when a very substantial proportion of the population has been immunised and/or when the warm weather returns. The rest of the Winter is going to be fucking terrible.
Wales has not failed because its lockdown was too early and too hard. It has failed because the lockdown was too short and the exit was too liberal.
I write this from the discomfort of my damp coastal Welsh cave.
A month in lockdown and Dorset figures have plummeted, to the extent that we ought to be in Tier 1. Wealthier and better at dealing with outside activity (the urban areas are all coastal) than many other places must help.
I am sure there will be some relaxation announced tomorrow. Top of the list will be the northern cities where numbers are falling going into T2
It's all academic. It'll be back into yet another full national lockdown shortly after Christmas.
A national lockdown is nailed on from 28 Dec. We will be up to 60,000 daily cases by then.
Still doesn't make sense to lock down Cornwall when cases in London are going through the roof. Introducing a localised tier 4 would be useful though.
Frankly we need Tier 6 in London at the moment 😠
What happened? People believing that it couldn't happen again after the first wave?
Have to wonder what the hell people are doing once the circuit breakers run out.
The evidence surely is that, with no vaccine, the virus was always going to do what the virus was going to do, whatever any administration does. Just like any large scale natural phenomenon.
Maybe we have slowed the virus down and spaced it out, at the cost of enormous collateral damage. But the notion of 'saving lives' is clearly utterly bogus. We may have 'delayed deaths' but at the cost of hastening other deaths, and maybe causing many unnecessary deaths.
1. The collateral damage happens anyway. Hence the overwhelming evidence from the US that places without lockdowns end up with the same (or even worse) economic performance.
2. How is "saving lives" bogus? Look at Sweden (which, by the way, has now locked down). It's death rate is 3-4x it's neighbours. Will there be a rush of Norwegians doing "catch up dying" in a few months?
Well look at Germany. Praised to the skies here at the beginning. Suddenly, now, absolutely horrendous numbers. Full panic total lockdown.
I wonder if it is true. There is a long-standing anomaly in our trade with America, which is we both think we have a trade surplus, and we can't both be right. Or most likely we are both right but include different things. Anyway, I can't be bothered to investigate but it leaves me suspicious of any US trade story.
The inability of a significant number of people in some areas of the country to observe even the most basic of public health precautions in a desperate attempt to live what they consider a "normal" life has brought us to the point when even a 4-week national "lockdown" (albeit much looser than that in March and April) has failed to significantly slow the virus in some areas and in others case numbers are rising sharply.
There's probably a significant element of truth to that argument, but it may also be that any form of lockdown short of herding people into their homes and nailing or welding the doors shut for a month simply isn't that effective, and may to an extent even be counter-productive. Going in hard and early has failed abysmally in Wales, which probably has a lot to do with incarcerating a lot of not particularly well-off people in cramped, low quality housing with nothing much to do but watch TV. The disease runs through individual households like a dose of salts and then gets passed around when they all get lonely and/or bored to tears, and start visiting each others' houses - something that the authorities, save in truly egregious cases like massive house parties, are essentially powerless to prevent.
In the final analysis, more cautious folk (especially old or rich cautious folk, who may have the luxury of not being forced to go out to work each morning) can exercise discretion, but the disease is going to keep on propagating itself through those who don't care or can't afford to care for the rest of the Winter. I'm still not at all sure how much or how little of the improvement we saw through late Spring and into Summer was to do with all the desperate measures enacted to suppress the virus, and how much was the product of the warm weather. But I suspect that it is mainly the latter.
In short, more and lengthier lockdowns (and I'm as sure as I can be that everyone will be following the Welsh example in fairly short order after Christmas) may take the edge off the illness - at horrendous economic cost - but the only way we're getting any real relief is when a very substantial proportion of the population has been immunised and/or when the warm weather returns. The rest of the Winter is going to be fucking terrible.
Wales has not failed because its lockdown was too early and too hard. It has failed because the lockdown was too short and the exit was too liberal.
I write this from the discomfort of my damp coastal Welsh cave.
Absolutely spot on and from my detached home by the sea with park behind and mountain views, plus heating on
My wife and I know we are truly blessed and made the right decision in 1976 to buy our home for £15,000
I am not quoting today'value
Has Drakeford changed the rules again in the last hour Big G?
The inability of a significant number of people in some areas of the country to observe even the most basic of public health precautions in a desperate attempt to live what they consider a "normal" life has brought us to the point when even a 4-week national "lockdown" (albeit much looser than that in March and April) has failed to significantly slow the virus in some areas and in others case numbers are rising sharply.
There's probably a significant element of truth to that argument, but it may also be that any form of lockdown short of herding people into their homes and nailing or welding the doors shut for a month simply isn't that effective, and may to an extent even be counter-productive. Going in hard and early has failed abysmally in Wales, which probably has a lot to do with incarcerating a lot of not particularly well-off people in cramped, low quality housing with nothing much to do but watch TV. The disease runs through individual households like a dose of salts and then gets passed around when they all get lonely and/or bored to tears, and start visiting each others' houses - something that the authorities, save in truly egregious cases like massive house parties, are essentially powerless to prevent.
In the final analysis, more cautious folk (especially old or rich cautious folk, who may have the luxury of not being forced to go out to work each morning) can exercise discretion, but the disease is going to keep on propagating itself through those who don't care or can't afford to care for the rest of the Winter. I'm still not at all sure how much or how little of the improvement we saw through late Spring and into Summer was to do with all the desperate measures enacted to suppress the virus, and how much was the product of the warm weather. But I suspect that it is mainly the latter.
In short, more and lengthier lockdowns (and I'm as sure as I can be that everyone will be following the Welsh example in fairly short order after Christmas) may take the edge off the illness - at horrendous economic cost - but the only way we're getting any real relief is when a very substantial proportion of the population has been immunised and/or when the warm weather returns. The rest of the Winter is going to be fucking terrible.
Wales has not failed because its lockdown was too early and too hard. It has failed because the lockdown was too short and the exit was too liberal.
I write this from the discomfort of my damp coastal Welsh cave.
A month in lockdown and Dorset figures have plummeted, to the extent that we ought to be in Tier 1. Wealthier and better at dealing with outside activity (the urban areas are all coastal) than many other places must help.
I am sure there will be some relaxation announced tomorrow. Top of the list will be the northern cities where numbers are falling going into T2
It's all academic. It'll be back into yet another full national lockdown shortly after Christmas.
A national lockdown is nailed on from 28 Dec. We will be up to 60,000 daily cases by then.
Still doesn't make sense to lock down Cornwall when cases in London are going through the roof. Introducing a localised tier 4 would be useful though.
Frankly we need Tier 6 in London at the moment 😠
What happened? People believing that it couldn't happen again after the first wave?
New variant spreading faster, according to Matt Hancock.
The inability of a significant number of people in some areas of the country to observe even the most basic of public health precautions in a desperate attempt to live what they consider a "normal" life has brought us to the point when even a 4-week national "lockdown" (albeit much looser than that in March and April) has failed to significantly slow the virus in some areas and in others case numbers are rising sharply.
There's probably a significant element of truth to that argument, but it may also be that any form of lockdown short of herding people into their homes and nailing or welding the doors shut for a month simply isn't that effective, and may to an extent even be counter-productive. Going in hard and early has failed abysmally in Wales, which probably has a lot to do with incarcerating a lot of not particularly well-off people in cramped, low quality housing with nothing much to do but watch TV. The disease runs through individual households like a dose of salts and then gets passed around when they all get lonely and/or bored to tears, and start visiting each others' houses - something that the authorities, save in truly egregious cases like massive house parties, are essentially powerless to prevent.
In the final analysis, more cautious folk (especially old or rich cautious folk, who may have the luxury of not being forced to go out to work each morning) can exercise discretion, but the disease is going to keep on propagating itself through those who don't care or can't afford to care for the rest of the Winter. I'm still not at all sure how much or how little of the improvement we saw through late Spring and into Summer was to do with all the desperate measures enacted to suppress the virus, and how much was the product of the warm weather. But I suspect that it is mainly the latter.
In short, more and lengthier lockdowns (and I'm as sure as I can be that everyone will be following the Welsh example in fairly short order after Christmas) may take the edge off the illness - at horrendous economic cost - but the only way we're getting any real relief is when a very substantial proportion of the population has been immunised and/or when the warm weather returns. The rest of the Winter is going to be fucking terrible.
Wales has not failed because its lockdown was too early and too hard. It has failed because the lockdown was too short and the exit was too liberal.
I write this from the discomfort of my damp coastal Welsh cave.
Absolutely spot on and from my detached home by the sea with park behind and mountain views, plus heating on
My wife and I know we are truly blessed and made the right decision in 1976 to buy our home for £15,000
I am not quoting today'value
Has Drakeford changed the rules again in the last hour Big G?
I have no idea and to be honest I have stopped listening to him and will take steps to protect my family without any input from him
He has been banned from over 150 pubs here in North Wales for a minimum of 18 months
The inability of a significant number of people in some areas of the country to observe even the most basic of public health precautions in a desperate attempt to live what they consider a "normal" life has brought us to the point when even a 4-week national "lockdown" (albeit much looser than that in March and April) has failed to significantly slow the virus in some areas and in others case numbers are rising sharply.
There's probably a significant element of truth to that argument, but it may also be that any form of lockdown short of herding people into their homes and nailing or welding the doors shut for a month simply isn't that effective, and may to an extent even be counter-productive. Going in hard and early has failed abysmally in Wales, which probably has a lot to do with incarcerating a lot of not particularly well-off people in cramped, low quality housing with nothing much to do but watch TV. The disease runs through individual households like a dose of salts and then gets passed around when they all get lonely and/or bored to tears, and start visiting each others' houses - something that the authorities, save in truly egregious cases like massive house parties, are essentially powerless to prevent.
In the final analysis, more cautious folk (especially old or rich cautious folk, who may have the luxury of not being forced to go out to work each morning) can exercise discretion, but the disease is going to keep on propagating itself through those who don't care or can't afford to care for the rest of the Winter. I'm still not at all sure how much or how little of the improvement we saw through late Spring and into Summer was to do with all the desperate measures enacted to suppress the virus, and how much was the product of the warm weather. But I suspect that it is mainly the latter.
In short, more and lengthier lockdowns (and I'm as sure as I can be that everyone will be following the Welsh example in fairly short order after Christmas) may take the edge off the illness - at horrendous economic cost - but the only way we're getting any real relief is when a very substantial proportion of the population has been immunised and/or when the warm weather returns. The rest of the Winter is going to be fucking terrible.
Wales has not failed because its lockdown was too early and too hard. It has failed because the lockdown was too short and the exit was too liberal.
I write this from the discomfort of my damp coastal Welsh cave.
Absolutely spot on and from my detached home by the sea with park behind and mountain views, plus heating on
My wife and I know we are truly blessed and made the right decision in 1976 to buy our home for £15,000
I am not quoting today'value
BigG. I live in the Welsh mirror image of your house by the sound of it.
The Bristol Channel, North Somerset and the tip of North Devon to the South. The Village green to the North, with views across the mountains at the head of the Ogwr Valley.
There is a meteorological theory in coastal South Wales that if you can see the Somerset and Devon coast clearly, it is going to rain. If you can't see the Somerset and Devon coast clearly it is already raining.
Far be it for me to cheerlead for Johnson and Brexit, although I am not entirely sure mid-pandemic is necessarily the time for a fair analysis.
Is Italy not also mid-pandemic?
And doesn't have Brexit?
That I think is the point...
Scott, as you will have already gathered, I believe when reality bites the effects on the post Covid and post Brexit (even with a deal) economy will be brutal.
I just don't believe the analysis mid pandemic is necessarily a reliable indicator.
The inability of a significant number of people in some areas of the country to observe even the most basic of public health precautions in a desperate attempt to live what they consider a "normal" life has brought us to the point when even a 4-week national "lockdown" (albeit much looser than that in March and April) has failed to significantly slow the virus in some areas and in others case numbers are rising sharply.
There's probably a significant element of truth to that argument, but it may also be that any form of lockdown short of herding people into their homes and nailing or welding the doors shut for a month simply isn't that effective, and may to an extent even be counter-productive. Going in hard and early has failed abysmally in Wales, which probably has a lot to do with incarcerating a lot of not particularly well-off people in cramped, low quality housing with nothing much to do but watch TV. The disease runs through individual households like a dose of salts and then gets passed around when they all get lonely and/or bored to tears, and start visiting each others' houses - something that the authorities, save in truly egregious cases like massive house parties, are essentially powerless to prevent.
In the final analysis, more cautious folk (especially old or rich cautious folk, who may have the luxury of not being forced to go out to work each morning) can exercise discretion, but the disease is going to keep on propagating itself through those who don't care or can't afford to care for the rest of the Winter. I'm still not at all sure how much or how little of the improvement we saw through late Spring and into Summer was to do with all the desperate measures enacted to suppress the virus, and how much was the product of the warm weather. But I suspect that it is mainly the latter.
In short, more and lengthier lockdowns (and I'm as sure as I can be that everyone will be following the Welsh example in fairly short order after Christmas) may take the edge off the illness - at horrendous economic cost - but the only way we're getting any real relief is when a very substantial proportion of the population has been immunised and/or when the warm weather returns. The rest of the Winter is going to be fucking terrible.
Wales has not failed because its lockdown was too early and too hard. It has failed because the lockdown was too short and the exit was too liberal.
I write this from the discomfort of my damp coastal Welsh cave.
Absolutely spot on and from my detached home by the sea with park behind and mountain views, plus heating on
My wife and I know we are truly blessed and made the right decision in 1976 to buy our home for £15,000
I am not quoting today'value
BigG. I live in the Welsh mirror image of your house by the sound of it.
The Bristol Channel, North Somerset and the tip of North Devon to the South. The Village green to the North, with views across the mountains at the head of the Ogwr Valley.
There is a meteorological theory in coastal South Wales that if you can see the Somerset and Devon coast clearly, it is going to rain. If you can't see the Somerset and Devon coast clearly it is already raining.
Yes sounds like it and we are both so fortunate
New apartments are being built nearby marketing in excess of one million each
"It’s tempting for anyone who isn’t in Trump’s camp to dismiss his failing effort as foolish, even laughable.
But that’s a mistake. The president’s attacks on the honesty of the election and the legitimacy of Biden’s victory will have lasting effects, even if they don’t succeed in overturning the outcome.
He has already succeeded in bending the Republican Party to his will and concocting an animating cause for his post-presidency: a grievance-fueled campaign against Biden and the Democrats he accuses of stealing the election — as well as against any Republicans who didn’t bend the rules the way he wanted."
Have to wonder what the hell people are doing once the circuit breakers run out.
The evidence surely is that, with no vaccine, the virus was always going to do what the virus was going to do, whatever any administration does. Just like any large scale natural phenomenon.
Maybe we have slowed the virus down and spaced it out, at the cost of enormous collateral damage. But the notion of 'saving lives' is clearly utterly bogus. We may have 'delayed deaths' but at the cost of hastening other deaths, and maybe causing many unnecessary deaths.
1. The collateral damage happens anyway. Hence the overwhelming evidence from the US that places without lockdowns end up with the same (or even worse) economic performance.
2. How is "saving lives" bogus? Look at Sweden (which, by the way, has now locked down). It's death rate is 3-4x it's neighbours. Will there be a rush of Norwegians doing "catch up dying" in a few months?
Well look at Germany. Praised to the skies here at the beginning. Suddenly, now, absolutely horrendous numbers. Full panic total lockdown.
Would you call that 'catch up dying....??'
Do you mean that UK residents who were spared death by the first lockdown are now dying in Germany? What?
The inability of a significant number of people in some areas of the country to observe even the most basic of public health precautions in a desperate attempt to live what they consider a "normal" life has brought us to the point when even a 4-week national "lockdown" (albeit much looser than that in March and April) has failed to significantly slow the virus in some areas and in others case numbers are rising sharply.
There's probably a significant element of truth to that argument, but it may also be that any form of lockdown short of herding people into their homes and nailing or welding the doors shut for a month simply isn't that effective, and may to an extent even be counter-productive. Going in hard and early has failed abysmally in Wales, which probably has a lot to do with incarcerating a lot of not particularly well-off people in cramped, low quality housing with nothing much to do but watch TV. The disease runs through individual households like a dose of salts and then gets passed around when they all get lonely and/or bored to tears, and start visiting each others' houses - something that the authorities, save in truly egregious cases like massive house parties, are essentially powerless to prevent.
In the final analysis, more cautious folk (especially old or rich cautious folk, who may have the luxury of not being forced to go out to work each morning) can exercise discretion, but the disease is going to keep on propagating itself through those who don't care or can't afford to care for the rest of the Winter. I'm still not at all sure how much or how little of the improvement we saw through late Spring and into Summer was to do with all the desperate measures enacted to suppress the virus, and how much was the product of the warm weather. But I suspect that it is mainly the latter.
In short, more and lengthier lockdowns (and I'm as sure as I can be that everyone will be following the Welsh example in fairly short order after Christmas) may take the edge off the illness - at horrendous economic cost - but the only way we're getting any real relief is when a very substantial proportion of the population has been immunised and/or when the warm weather returns. The rest of the Winter is going to be fucking terrible.
Wales has not failed because its lockdown was too early and too hard. It has failed because the lockdown was too short and the exit was too liberal.
I write this from the discomfort of my damp coastal Welsh cave.
Absolutely spot on and from my detached home by the sea with park behind and mountain views, plus heating on
My wife and I know we are truly blessed and made the right decision in 1976 to buy our home for £15,000
I am not quoting today'value
BigG. I live in the Welsh mirror image of your house by the sound of it.
The Bristol Channel, North Somerset and the tip of North Devon to the South. The Village green to the North, with views across the mountains at the head of the Ogwr Valley.
There is a meteorological theory in coastal South Wales that if you can see the Somerset and Devon coast clearly, it is going to rain. If you can't see the Somerset and Devon coast clearly it is already raining.
Yes sounds like it and we are both so fortunate
New apartments are being built nearby marketing in excess of one million each
We have had some really nasty David Wilson boxes put up in our village, the larger 4 bedroom ones with tiny yards sold easily for £550,000. My house has two bedrooms more and is in its own, not insubstantial walled garden. I am hoping these hideous carbuncles have dragged the price of my property up, so that when we re-enter a freedom of movement arrangement with the EU, I can bugger off to the South of France with my state pension, medical benefits and a handsome nest egg.
The inability of a significant number of people in some areas of the country to observe even the most basic of public health precautions in a desperate attempt to live what they consider a "normal" life has brought us to the point when even a 4-week national "lockdown" (albeit much looser than that in March and April) has failed to significantly slow the virus in some areas and in others case numbers are rising sharply.
There's probably a significant element of truth to that argument, but it may also be that any form of lockdown short of herding people into their homes and nailing or welding the doors shut for a month simply isn't that effective, and may to an extent even be counter-productive. Going in hard and early has failed abysmally in Wales, which probably has a lot to do with incarcerating a lot of not particularly well-off people in cramped, low quality housing with nothing much to do but watch TV. The disease runs through individual households like a dose of salts and then gets passed around when they all get lonely and/or bored to tears, and start visiting each others' houses - something that the authorities, save in truly egregious cases like massive house parties, are essentially powerless to prevent.
In the final analysis, more cautious folk (especially old or rich cautious folk, who may have the luxury of not being forced to go out to work each morning) can exercise discretion, but the disease is going to keep on propagating itself through those who don't care or can't afford to care for the rest of the Winter. I'm still not at all sure how much or how little of the improvement we saw through late Spring and into Summer was to do with all the desperate measures enacted to suppress the virus, and how much was the product of the warm weather. But I suspect that it is mainly the latter.
In short, more and lengthier lockdowns (and I'm as sure as I can be that everyone will be following the Welsh example in fairly short order after Christmas) may take the edge off the illness - at horrendous economic cost - but the only way we're getting any real relief is when a very substantial proportion of the population has been immunised and/or when the warm weather returns. The rest of the Winter is going to be fucking terrible.
Wales has not failed because its lockdown was too early and too hard. It has failed because the lockdown was too short and the exit was too liberal.
I write this from the discomfort of my damp coastal Welsh cave.
Absolutely spot on and from my detached home by the sea with park behind and mountain views, plus heating on
My wife and I know we are truly blessed and made the right decision in 1976 to buy our home for £15,000
I am not quoting today'value
BigG. I live in the Welsh mirror image of your house by the sound of it.
The Bristol Channel, North Somerset and the tip of North Devon to the South. The Village green to the North, with views across the mountains at the head of the Ogwr Valley.
There is a meteorological theory in coastal South Wales that if you can see the Somerset and Devon coast clearly, it is going to rain. If you can't see the Somerset and Devon coast clearly it is already raining.
Yes sounds like it and we are both so fortunate
New apartments are being built nearby marketing in excess of one million each
We have had some really nasty David Wilson boxes put up in our village, the larger 4 bedroom ones with tiny yards sold easily for £550,000. My house has two bedrooms more and is in its own, not insubstantial walled garden. I am hoping these hideous carbuncles have dragged the price of my property up, so that when we re-enter a freedom of movement arrangement with the EU, I can bugger off to the South of France with my state pension, medical benefits and a handsome nest egg.
"It’s tempting for anyone who isn’t in Trump’s camp to dismiss his failing effort as foolish, even laughable.
But that’s a mistake. The president’s attacks on the honesty of the election and the legitimacy of Biden’s victory will have lasting effects, even if they don’t succeed in overturning the outcome.
He has already succeeded in bending the Republican Party to his will and concocting an animating cause for his post-presidency: a grievance-fueled campaign against Biden and the Democrats he accuses of stealing the election — as well as against any Republicans who didn’t bend the rules the way he wanted."
Have to wonder what the hell people are doing once the circuit breakers run out.
The evidence surely is that, with no vaccine, the virus was always going to do what the virus was going to do, whatever any administration does. Just like any large scale natural phenomenon.
Maybe we have slowed the virus down and spaced it out, at the cost of enormous collateral damage. But the notion of 'saving lives' is clearly utterly bogus. We may have 'delayed deaths' but at the cost of hastening other deaths, and maybe causing many unnecessary deaths.
1. The collateral damage happens anyway. Hence the overwhelming evidence from the US that places without lockdowns end up with the same (or even worse) economic performance.
2. How is "saving lives" bogus? Look at Sweden (which, by the way, has now locked down). It's death rate is 3-4x it's neighbours. Will there be a rush of Norwegians doing "catch up dying" in a few months?
Well look at Germany. Praised to the skies here at the beginning. Suddenly, now, absolutely horrendous numbers. Full panic total lockdown.
Would you call that 'catch up dying....??'
That'll be because - oh yes - they had a much less severe lockdown (schools open for instance) second time around.
Even so.
Their deaths per million are about (checks it...) under a third of the level of the UK.
Presumably, though, that's about to go through the roof. Because. Ummm. Ummm.
The inability of a significant number of people in some areas of the country to observe even the most basic of public health precautions in a desperate attempt to live what they consider a "normal" life has brought us to the point when even a 4-week national "lockdown" (albeit much looser than that in March and April) has failed to significantly slow the virus in some areas and in others case numbers are rising sharply.
There's probably a significant element of truth to that argument, but it may also be that any form of lockdown short of herding people into their homes and nailing or welding the doors shut for a month simply isn't that effective, and may to an extent even be counter-productive. Going in hard and early has failed abysmally in Wales, which probably has a lot to do with incarcerating a lot of not particularly well-off people in cramped, low quality housing with nothing much to do but watch TV. The disease runs through individual households like a dose of salts and then gets passed around when they all get lonely and/or bored to tears, and start visiting each others' houses - something that the authorities, save in truly egregious cases like massive house parties, are essentially powerless to prevent.
In the final analysis, more cautious folk (especially old or rich cautious folk, who may have the luxury of not being forced to go out to work each morning) can exercise discretion, but the disease is going to keep on propagating itself through those who don't care or can't afford to care for the rest of the Winter. I'm still not at all sure how much or how little of the improvement we saw through late Spring and into Summer was to do with all the desperate measures enacted to suppress the virus, and how much was the product of the warm weather. But I suspect that it is mainly the latter.
In short, more and lengthier lockdowns (and I'm as sure as I can be that everyone will be following the Welsh example in fairly short order after Christmas) may take the edge off the illness - at horrendous economic cost - but the only way we're getting any real relief is when a very substantial proportion of the population has been immunised and/or when the warm weather returns. The rest of the Winter is going to be fucking terrible.
Wales has not failed because its lockdown was too early and too hard. It has failed because the lockdown was too short and the exit was too liberal.
I write this from the discomfort of my damp coastal Welsh cave.
A month in lockdown and Dorset figures have plummeted, to the extent that we ought to be in Tier 1. Wealthier and better at dealing with outside activity (the urban areas are all coastal) than many other places must help.
I am sure there will be some relaxation announced tomorrow. Top of the list will be the northern cities where numbers are falling going into T2
It's all academic. It'll be back into yet another full national lockdown shortly after Christmas.
A national lockdown is nailed on from 28 Dec. We will be up to 60,000 daily cases by then.
Still doesn't make sense to lock down Cornwall when cases in London are going through the roof. Introducing a localised tier 4 would be useful though.
Frankly we need Tier 6 in London at the moment 😠
Nothing will work short of a hard reset of the whole country. Close down industry, close all the shops, turn the army out on the streets, shoot anybody seen out of their house on sight. Continue for a month.
That element of the population that hasn't frozen or starved to death should then be free of the virus.
All you can do with any measure short of that is just slow it down a little.
That was the Australian strategy. Six weeks of complete lockdown.
The inability of a significant number of people in some areas of the country to observe even the most basic of public health precautions in a desperate attempt to live what they consider a "normal" life has brought us to the point when even a 4-week national "lockdown" (albeit much looser than that in March and April) has failed to significantly slow the virus in some areas and in others case numbers are rising sharply.
There's probably a significant element of truth to that argument, but it may also be that any form of lockdown short of herding people into their homes and nailing or welding the doors shut for a month simply isn't that effective, and may to an extent even be counter-productive. Going in hard and early has failed abysmally in Wales, which probably has a lot to do with incarcerating a lot of not particularly well-off people in cramped, low quality housing with nothing much to do but watch TV. The disease runs through individual households like a dose of salts and then gets passed around when they all get lonely and/or bored to tears, and start visiting each others' houses - something that the authorities, save in truly egregious cases like massive house parties, are essentially powerless to prevent.
In the final analysis, more cautious folk (especially old or rich cautious folk, who may have the luxury of not being forced to go out to work each morning) can exercise discretion, but the disease is going to keep on propagating itself through those who don't care or can't afford to care for the rest of the Winter. I'm still not at all sure how much or how little of the improvement we saw through late Spring and into Summer was to do with all the desperate measures enacted to suppress the virus, and how much was the product of the warm weather. But I suspect that it is mainly the latter.
In short, more and lengthier lockdowns (and I'm as sure as I can be that everyone will be following the Welsh example in fairly short order after Christmas) may take the edge off the illness - at horrendous economic cost - but the only way we're getting any real relief is when a very substantial proportion of the population has been immunised and/or when the warm weather returns. The rest of the Winter is going to be fucking terrible.
Wales has not failed because its lockdown was too early and too hard. It has failed because the lockdown was too short and the exit was too liberal.
I write this from the discomfort of my damp coastal Welsh cave.
A month in lockdown and Dorset figures have plummeted, to the extent that we ought to be in Tier 1. Wealthier and better at dealing with outside activity (the urban areas are all coastal) than many other places must help.
I am sure there will be some relaxation announced tomorrow. Top of the list will be the northern cities where numbers are falling going into T2
It's all academic. It'll be back into yet another full national lockdown shortly after Christmas.
A national lockdown is nailed on from 28 Dec. We will be up to 60,000 daily cases by then.
Still doesn't make sense to lock down Cornwall when cases in London are going through the roof. Introducing a localised tier 4 would be useful though.
Frankly we need Tier 6 in London at the moment 😠
Nothing will work short of a hard reset of the whole country. Close down industry, close all the shops, turn the army out on the streets, shoot anybody seen out of their house on sight. Continue for a month.
That element of the population that hasn't frozen or starved to death should then be free of the virus.
All you can do with any measure short of that is just slow it down a little.
That was the Australian strategy. Six weeks of complete lockdown.
Australia started from a much lower incidence didn't it though? And much less travel.
Eradication worked for them but I can't see it working for us. Plus with the vaccine I'm not sure we need it to, not as it stands.
Comments
Clearly the hospital that can cope will have less covid deaths because it won't have an overflowing ICU, knackered staff and lack of ventilators. It will also be able to cope better with other potential causes of death such as accidents, cancer etc. So the notion is not bogus, it is blindingly obvious to anyone with half a brain.
You do talk tosh.
And the delayed deaths comment has been covered numerous times, but I will give it another go. The average life expectancy for an 80 year old is 10 years. It is not a 'delayed death' except in the obvious sense of the word.
Even an 80 year old obese man with heart disease has a life expectancy of 5 years (credit More or Less)
Do you know how life expectancy works? With every day you get older your life expectancy increases by a small amount.
That element of the population that hasn't frozen or starved to death should then be free of the virus.
All you can do with any measure short of that is just slow it down a little.
My wife and I know we are truly blessed and made the right decision in 1976 to buy our home for £15,000
I am not quoting today'value
Would you call that 'catch up dying....??'
I wonder if it is true. There is a long-standing anomaly in our trade with America, which is we both think we have a trade surplus, and we can't both be right. Or most likely we are both right but include different things. Anyway, I can't be bothered to investigate but it leaves me suspicious of any US trade story.
And doesn't have Brexit?
That I think is the point...
He has been banned from over 150 pubs here in North Wales for a minimum of 18 months
The Bristol Channel, North Somerset and the tip of North Devon to the South. The Village green to the North, with views across the mountains at the head of the Ogwr Valley.
There is a meteorological theory in coastal South Wales that if you can see the Somerset and Devon coast clearly, it is going to rain. If you can't see the Somerset and Devon coast clearly it is already raining.
It's shit.
It's the cheerleaders who have yet to make peace with their vote...
I just don't believe the analysis mid pandemic is necessarily a reliable indicator.
New apartments are being built nearby marketing in excess of one million each
"It’s tempting for anyone who isn’t in Trump’s camp to dismiss his failing effort as foolish, even laughable.
But that’s a mistake. The president’s attacks on the honesty of the election and the legitimacy of Biden’s victory will have lasting effects, even if they don’t succeed in overturning the outcome.
He has already succeeded in bending the Republican Party to his will and concocting an animating cause for his post-presidency: a grievance-fueled campaign against Biden and the Democrats he accuses of stealing the election — as well as against any Republicans who didn’t bend the rules the way he wanted."
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-12-13/trump-has-changed-tactics-in-his-election-fight-his-new-approach-is-more-dangerous
--AS
Maybe we need to be out and in time things will change, even including joining the single market and customs union
I'm doing it
I ain't digging it
NEW THREAD
He was demanding they rip up US democracy completely.
Even so.
Their deaths per million are about (checks it...) under a third of the level of the UK.
Presumably, though, that's about to go through the roof. Because. Ummm. Ummm.
Eradication worked for them but I can't see it working for us. Plus with the vaccine I'm not sure we need it to, not as it stands.