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Boris’s big Christmas gamble – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,168
edited December 2020 in General
imageBoris’s big Christmas gamble – politicalbetting.com

It is a very fine gamble for Christmas – not actually tightening the regulations that can be legally enforced but rather toughening up the guidance for how people should operate during the 5 designated days of the Christmas period.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    Santa's First Helper ...
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831
    Not really any better than Trump with his "the virus will just magically go away" nonsense. Same across Europe though.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    In July a plan for it was not unreasonable as a possibility at least. Not reacting to events sufficiently, or taking measures in advance which mitigate the impact more, is another thing.
  • After all, they've handled them so well so far:

    https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/1339266350322245634?s=20
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831
    kle4 said:

    In July a plan for it was not unreasonable as a possibility at least. Not reacting to events sufficiently, or taking measures in advance which mitigate the impact more, is another thing.
    Nothing about the virus had changed though, and going back to much the same conditions as in February and March was always going to lead to the same result.

    Okay, they had test&trace to pin their hopes on, but they released restrictions too far and too fast without validating that it works sufficiently to keep the virus in check. (Again, not just the UK.)
  • I best change all my passwords from 'PineappleDoesNotBelongOnPizza'.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,600
    kle4 said:

    In July a plan for it was not unreasonable as a possibility at least. Not reacting to events sufficiently, or taking measures in advance which mitigate the impact more, is another thing.
    Summer holidays in Euope meant it was doomed.

    Obviously.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,696

    I best change all my passwords from 'PineappleDoesNotBelongOnPizza'.
    At least you can only be hacked by people with taste.
  • kle4 said:

    In July a plan for it was not unreasonable as a possibility at least. Not reacting to events sufficiently, or taking measures in advance which mitigate the impact more, is another thing.
    Some of us warned at the time that the winter seems like the perfect situation for Covid-19 and that having a rubbish test, trace, and isolate system would stop us returning to normality absent a vaccine.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    edited December 2020
    JACK_W said:

    Santa's First Helper ...

    Appropriate for a thread on Elf and Safety.

    I best change all my passwords from 'PineappleDoesNotBelongOnPizza'.
    It’s not much harder to guess ‘DieHardIsNotAChr!stmasMovie’ so I wouldn’t bother.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357

    After all, they've handled them so well so far:

    https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/1339266350322245634?s=20

    They've obviously forgotten Rule 1 of enquires.

    1. Only hold an enquiry when you are quite certain of what the result will be.
  • I've got some sympathy for the government on this. It was never going to be easy, and whatever they do they'll be vilified on one ground or another, and often on two contradictory grounds simultaneously.

    Still, in the big picture, it's been unnecessarily chaotic. Rafael Behr nails it in this article:

    Johnson’s technique for dealing with problems is to let them run out of control, building to a point of sufficient crisis that delay is no longer viable. That way the choice becomes perversely easier because there are fewer options left. Wait long enough and there might be only one.
    ...
    [Bit about Brexit omitted!]
    ...
    It is a chaotic way to run anything: leaving it all to the last minute, relying on a critical mass of external pressure to get motivated. As a way of governing in a pandemic it is disastrous because there is no slack time between deadlines. The moment to make the tough choices is always now. The rate at which good options decay is exponential. The virus thrives on indecision. Johnson’s method is effective for one thing, though: it guarantees a sustained pitch of political drama, with the figure of the prime minister lit centre stage.


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/15/boris-johnson-pandemic-britain-christmas-covid
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Jonathan said:
    That is a truly bizarre non-sequitur.
  • I suppose Prince Andrew best get used to references like this in stories.

    A wealthy fashion designer who hosted the Duke of York at his Caribbean mansion faces extradition to the US over allegations of sexual assault spanning four decades.

    Peter Nygard, 79, is accused of raping girls as young as 14. He hosted Andrew, 60, with his former wife, Sarah, Duchess of York at his Bahamas estate in the summer of 2000, shortly after the designer had settled cases of sexual harassment against three women out of court in Canada. He has also been photographed with the duke’s daughters, Princess Beatrice and Princess Eugenie.

    US authorities have charged him with racketeering and sex trafficking. Fifty-seven women have joined the suit alleging that Mr Nygard trafficked women and girls, and lured victims as young as 14 to “pamper parties”, where they were raped.

    Mr Nygard, who denies the allegations, blames a conspiracy caused by a disagreement with his neighbour in the Bahamas. He is being held in Winnipeg Remand Centre under the Extradition Act. He appeared in court yesterday.



    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/fashion-guru-peter-nygard-held-after-sex-claims-by-57-women-mv5hpg8fc
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,600
    Jonathan said:
    Next year, this tweet is all we will remember of 2020.....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,665
    edited December 2020
    Jonathan said:
    I saw that earlier and I spent most of the afternoon trying to get rid of the image of John Major being pegged senseless.

    I failed.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    Jonathan said:
    I saw that earlier and I spent most of the afternoon trying to get rid of the image of John Major being pegged senseless.

    I failed.
    And we all thought Johnson’s negotiations with the EU were the fudge packing...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,600
    Assuming MPs aren't jetting all over the planet this Christmas, it does make recall very much easier. Especially with Zoom.
  • I assume the likes of Toby Young, Andrew Neil, Alison Pearson, Cricket Wyvern, Alistair Hames, and the rest of the Sweden is awesome mob have covered this extensively?

    https://twitter.com/EddieHughes4WN/status/1339183291992322050
  • Jonathan said:
    What upsets me about this is less the indelible image of a respected elder statesman being brutally pegged that is now imprinted on my brain, and more the use of the word "ass" rather than "arse" by a British person in the original tweet. And he seems like a right [insert preferred term]hole, by the way.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:
    That is a truly bizarre non-sequitur.
    I assume she is recommending mask wearing.

    Otherwise, John Major.
  • With Parliament in recess from tomorrow until the New Year am I right in thinking that if the PM did suddenly say "talks have failed, we're going to WTO" then that would be it? No votes in Parliament or anything like it?

    Or could the Speaker unilaterally recall Parliament for an opposition Urgent Question or similar on that.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,866
    Case figures look bad today in England.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:
    That is a truly bizarre non-sequitur.
    I assume she is recommending mask wearing.

    Otherwise, John Major.
    From all I know of Ms Salmonella, I don’t think she was referring to mask wearing.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,696

    Assuming MPs aren't jetting all over the planet this Christmas, it does make recall very much easier. Especially with Zoom.
    I'm not sure that's a safe assumption.
  • kle4 said:

    In July a plan for it was not unreasonable as a possibility at least. Not reacting to events sufficiently, or taking measures in advance which mitigate the impact more, is another thing.
    What was unreasonable was briefing the press on 22nd November during lockdown that we could rely on the post lockdown restrictions being waived over Christmas. What should have been announced was that the Government hoped for some relaxation then but that it was too early to say. But that would have made it harder for Johnson to get his party on board to win the 1st December parliamentary vote, so to curry favour then he gambled that things would be going to plan by Christmas, and now he isn't willing to lose face by admitting that he was (yet again) wrong.
  • I said earlier on today Arsenal had made a huge mistake in letting West Brom appoint Sam Allardyce, they should have got in there first.
  • I suppose Prince Andrew best get used to references like this in stories.

    A wealthy fashion designer who hosted the Duke of York at his Caribbean mansion faces extradition to the US over allegations of sexual assault spanning four decades.

    Peter Nygard, 79, is accused of raping girls as young as 14. He hosted Andrew, 60, with his former wife, Sarah, Duchess of York at his Bahamas estate in the summer of 2000, shortly after the designer had settled cases of sexual harassment against three women out of court in Canada. He has also been photographed with the duke’s daughters, Princess Beatrice and Princess Eugenie.

    US authorities have charged him with racketeering and sex trafficking. Fifty-seven women have joined the suit alleging that Mr Nygard trafficked women and girls, and lured victims as young as 14 to “pamper parties”, where they were raped.

    Mr Nygard, who denies the allegations, blames a conspiracy caused by a disagreement with his neighbour in the Bahamas. He is being held in Winnipeg Remand Centre under the Extradition Act. He appeared in court yesterday.



    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/fashion-guru-peter-nygard-held-after-sex-claims-by-57-women-mv5hpg8fc

    It's sub-optimal in PR terms for keywords in articles about your client tending to be things like "rape", "lured", and "trafficking".

    Ideally, you'd more be looking for things like "philanthropist", "admired" and "definitely not a paedophile" instead.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    UK cases by specimen date

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100k population

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    UK Local R

    image
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    Assuming MPs aren't jetting all over the planet this Christmas, it does make recall very much easier. Especially with Zoom.
    Can they vote via Zoom?

    Does anyone know whether any trade deal legislation will be amendable?
  • MaxPB said:

    Case figures look bad today in England.

    Especially since Wales still isn't even properly reporting. You can add a other 2k on top.
  • I said earlier on today Arsenal had made a huge mistake in letting West Brom appoint Sam Allardyce, they should have got in there first.

    Greatest ever England manager, IMHO. 100% win record - the stats don't lie.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    edited December 2020
    Case summary

    Today (looks like there is something up with the Welsh data)

    image

    Yesterday

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    Positivity

    image
    image
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,380

    I said earlier on today Arsenal had made a huge mistake in letting West Brom appoint Sam Allardyce, they should have got in there first.

    ...but Allardyce is a Dudley born "Dingle". This will not end well. The Albion found themselves in the old third division after Allardyce'd last spell at the Hawthorns (as Brian Talbot's assistant as I recall).
  • MaxPB said:

    Case figures look bad today in England.

    It's all looking pretty grim. Hospital admissions rising steadily, and deaths seem to have stopped falling too. Rats.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    UK hospitals

    image
    image
    image
    image
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    I said earlier on today Arsenal had made a huge mistake in letting West Brom appoint Sam Allardyce, they should have got in there first.

    Sam Allardyce! He`s a joke manager isn`t he? He`s had more clubs than Tiger.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    UK deaths

    image
    image
    image
  • I said earlier on today Arsenal had made a huge mistake in letting West Brom appoint Sam Allardyce, they should have got in there first.

    Greatest ever England manager, IMHO. 100% win record - the stats don't lie.
    I once wrote an opening to a PB thread saying Gavin Williamson was the Sam Allardyce of British politics.

    Both had resigned in disgrace but you were astonished anyone wanted to hire them again.

    Never ended up publishing that.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    edited December 2020

    Jonathan said:
    I saw that earlier and I spent most of the afternoon trying to get rid of the image of John Major being pegged senseless.

    I failed.
    I remember the Bottom episode that had a tape of the event. It all kicks off at 20:20.

    https://youtu.be/4sm4yMWpxYc
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,090
    edited December 2020
    Stocky said:

    I said earlier on today Arsenal had made a huge mistake in letting West Brom appoint Sam Allardyce, they should have got in there first.

    Sam Allardyce! He`s a joke manager isn`t he? He`s had more clubs than Tiger.
    Modern football analytics is down in no small part to Big Sam. Lazy sterotype to see him as ludite manager.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    UK R

    From case data

    image
    image

    From hospitalisation data

    image
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,209
    Jonathan said:
    Good one from Edwina there.

    Spunky.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    @stodge

    I`ve just had an email from my local LibDem Chair. He say`s he hadn`t heard of the term "woke" until yesterday. He had to look it up. Are you surprised that local party activists have their heads up there arses or is this a common thing in your experience?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,665
    edited December 2020
    Stocky said:

    I said earlier on today Arsenal had made a huge mistake in letting West Brom appoint Sam Allardyce, they should have got in there first.

    Sam Allardyce! He`s a joke manager isn`t he? He`s had more clubs than Tiger.
    He only manages small and/or joke clubs, clubs like Newcastle United Comedy Club and Everton.

    It is still an astonishing stat that the last Premier League manager to win away at Anfield is Sam Allardyce, back in March 2017.

    Although I fully expect that unbeaten record to end tonight.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    Stocky said:

    I said earlier on today Arsenal had made a huge mistake in letting West Brom appoint Sam Allardyce, they should have got in there first.

    Sam Allardyce! He`s a joke manager isn`t he? He`s had more clubs than Tiger.
    He only manages small and/or joke clubs, clubs like Newcastle United Comedy Club and Everton.

    It is still an astonishing stat that the last Premier League manager to win away at Anfield is Sam Allardyce, back in March 2017.

    Although I fully that unbeaten record to end tonight.
    Hmm
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    With Parliament in recess from tomorrow until the New Year am I right in thinking that if the PM did suddenly say "talks have failed, we're going to WTO" then that would be it? No votes in Parliament or anything like it?

    Or could the Speaker unilaterally recall Parliament for an opposition Urgent Question or similar on that.


    The Government has a 80 seat majority. I'm not sure it matters either way.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    Stocky said:

    @stodge

    I`ve just had an email from my local LibDem Chair. He say`s he hadn`t heard of the term "woke" until yesterday. He had to look it up. Are you surprised that local party activists have their heads up there arses or is this a common thing in your experience?

    So he's woken up to the work issue? Does the fact that he wasn't aware about wokeness mean that he needs to be awakened?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533

    With Parliament in recess from tomorrow until the New Year am I right in thinking that if the PM did suddenly say "talks have failed, we're going to WTO" then that would be it? No votes in Parliament or anything like it?

    Or could the Speaker unilaterally recall Parliament for an opposition Urgent Question or similar on that.


    The Government has a 80 seat majority. I'm not sure it matters either way.
    Probably right. But in answer to the question, I'm not sure but my recollection is that the Speaker can recall Parliament. In practice, if the Speaker announced that he thought it necessary I think it would be extremely difficult not to do so - much easier to recall it for a statement (not necessarily a vote).
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    With Parliament in recess from tomorrow until the New Year am I right in thinking that if the PM did suddenly say "talks have failed, we're going to WTO" then that would be it? No votes in Parliament or anything like it?

    Or could the Speaker unilaterally recall Parliament for an opposition Urgent Question or similar on that.


    The Government has a 80 seat majority. I'm not sure it matters either way.
    Pithy piece of legal analysis 😂
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831
    edited December 2020
    Public Health Wales have officially said that there'll be around 11,000 cases reported tomorrow. In the graph below, I've redistributed 8000 of them across the four days with incomplete data to smooth the curve.

    England with 23,432 reported cases today after only 12,960 last Wednesday. More than half of the effect of the lockdown has already been undone.


  • Charles said:

    With Parliament in recess from tomorrow until the New Year am I right in thinking that if the PM did suddenly say "talks have failed, we're going to WTO" then that would be it? No votes in Parliament or anything like it?

    Or could the Speaker unilaterally recall Parliament for an opposition Urgent Question or similar on that.


    The Government has a 80 seat majority. I'm not sure it matters either way.
    Pithy piece of legal analysis 😂
    Make him AG, he'd be better than Suella Braverman.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    Stocky said:

    @stodge

    I`ve just had an email from my local LibDem Chair. He say`s he hadn`t heard of the term "woke" until yesterday. He had to look it up. Are you surprised that local party activists have their heads up there arses or is this a common thing in your experience?

    Generally speaking, people assume that everyone else is familiar with the language of their circle. I've certainly never heard anyone use the term and I've mainly seen it on PB, but I gather that in right-wing circles it's in common use, always pejoratively. As with "political correctness", the origin was left-wing usage, but it's long since disappeared in any context other than reactionary derision.
  • Stocky said:

    @stodge

    I`ve just had an email from my local LibDem Chair. He say`s he hadn`t heard of the term "woke" until yesterday. He had to look it up. Are you surprised that local party activists have their heads up there arses or is this a common thing in your experience?

    Generally speaking, people assume that everyone else is familiar with the language of their circle. I've certainly never heard anyone use the term and I've mainly seen it on PB, but I gather that in right-wing circles it's in common use, always pejoratively. As with "political correctness", the origin was left-wing usage, but it's long since disappeared in any context other than reactionary derision.
    A few months ago I saw some newspaper comment pages from 1990.

    Did you know what the Mail and Sun called political correctness gone mad?

    Equality for gay people.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    Stocky said:

    Assuming MPs aren't jetting all over the planet this Christmas, it does make recall very much easier. Especially with Zoom.
    Can they vote via Zoom?

    Does anyone know whether any trade deal legislation will be amendable?
    It won't. The Government has offered to consult Parliament, who will get a yes/no vote. Even that is not binding as the power to sign trade deals is reserved to the Executive. However, it would be a brave Executive that asked Parlament, got the answer "No", and then signed it anyway.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    Jonathan said:
    I saw that earlier and I spent most of the afternoon trying to get rid of the image of John Major being pegged senseless.

    I failed.
    Well you didn't need to ensure the rest of us failed too!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:
    That is a truly bizarre non-sequitur.
    I assume she is recommending mask wearing.
    That would make no sense in the context of 'enjoying it'.
  • kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:
    I saw that earlier and I spent most of the afternoon trying to get rid of the image of John Major being pegged senseless.

    I failed.
    Well you didn't need to ensure the rest of us failed too!
    I've always been told caring is sharing.
  • With Parliament in recess from tomorrow until the New Year am I right in thinking that if the PM did suddenly say "talks have failed, we're going to WTO" then that would be it? No votes in Parliament or anything like it?

    Or could the Speaker unilaterally recall Parliament for an opposition Urgent Question or similar on that.


    The Government has a 80 seat majority. I'm not sure it matters either way.
    Well indeed but it's amusing after all the furore over the prorogation that didn't even take us past exit day last time ... And now this can happen and people don't even blink an eye.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    Gaussian said:

    Public Health Wales have officially said that there'll be around 11,000 cases reported tomorrow. In the graph below, I've redistributed 8000 of them across the four days with incomplete data to smooth the curve.

    England with 23,432 reported cases today after only 12,960 last Wednesday. More than half of the effect of the lockdown has already been undone.


    11k cases just in Wales o_O ?!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,880
    edited December 2020
    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:
    That is a truly bizarre non-sequitur.
    I assume she is recommending mask wearing.
    That would make no sense in the context of 'enjoying it'.
    PLease don't ask him. We'll learn about something we had neither imagined nor wished to know about, as so often on PB.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,711

    UK hospitals

    image
    image
    image
    image

    Yep, my hospital has gone to alert level 5 today.

    That is all hands to the pumps, am shipping water...
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    Stocky said:

    @stodge

    I`ve just had an email from my local LibDem Chair. He say`s he hadn`t heard of the term "woke" until yesterday. He had to look it up. Are you surprised that local party activists have their heads up there arses or is this a common thing in your experience?

    Generally speaking, people assume that everyone else is familiar with the language of their circle. I've certainly never heard anyone use the term and I've mainly seen it on PB, but I gather that in right-wing circles it's in common use, always pejoratively. As with "political correctness", the origin was left-wing usage, but it's long since disappeared in any context other than reactionary derision.
    Yes - I agree - it has - or at least the left is trying to make it disappear, largely because the term, though invented by the left, now represents a steaming turd on their own doorstep.

    Wokeism is not just a reactionary thing. It is profoundly illiberal. And he is the local Chair of the LibDems. He should be all over this.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Gaussian said:

    Public Health Wales have officially said that there'll be around 11,000 cases reported tomorrow. In the graph below, I've redistributed 8000 of them across the four days with incomplete data to smooth the curve.

    England with 23,432 reported cases today after only 12,960 last Wednesday. More than half of the effect of the lockdown has already been undone.


    11k cases just in Wales o_O ?!
    It is why they already announced another lockdown, this time with no fixed end.
  • NI hospitals apparently at breaking point, they of course had 2 circuit breakers.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    Have to wonder what the hell people are doing once the circuit breakers run out.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Stocky said:

    @stodge

    I`ve just had an email from my local LibDem Chair. He say`s he hadn`t heard of the term "woke" until yesterday. He had to look it up. Are you surprised that local party activists have their heads up there arses or is this a common thing in your experience?

    It’s a word I have never heard used save by persons of a somewhat reactionary mindset. It may have started on the left but the right grabbed it and have run with it as fast as they possibly can.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,880
    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    @stodge

    I`ve just had an email from my local LibDem Chair. He say`s he hadn`t heard of the term "woke" until yesterday. He had to look it up. Are you surprised that local party activists have their heads up there arses or is this a common thing in your experience?

    Generally speaking, people assume that everyone else is familiar with the language of their circle. I've certainly never heard anyone use the term and I've mainly seen it on PB, but I gather that in right-wing circles it's in common use, always pejoratively. As with "political correctness", the origin was left-wing usage, but it's long since disappeared in any context other than reactionary derision.
    Yes - I agree - it has - or at least the left is trying to make it disappear, largely because the term, though invented by the left, now represents a steaming turd on their own doorstep.

    Wokeism is not just a reactionary thing. It is profoundly illiberal. And he is the local Chair of the LibDems. He should be all over this.
    Bit of a mixed metaphor there - makes the poor LD chap sound like a child with a kitchen basin of chocolate pudding.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831
    Pulpstar said:

    Gaussian said:

    Public Health Wales have officially said that there'll be around 11,000 cases reported tomorrow. In the graph below, I've redistributed 8000 of them across the four days with incomplete data to smooth the curve.

    England with 23,432 reported cases today after only 12,960 last Wednesday. More than half of the effect of the lockdown has already been undone.


    11k cases just in Wales o_O ?!
    Due to "planned maintenance", they've only reported around 2500 altogether for the last four days, so they've got an enormous backlog to put into the system.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited December 2020
    It's no consolation, but it seems to be just as bad throughout much of Europe. Even Denmark has had to impose a Christmas lockdown. We just need to hunker down until things improve, and wait for the vaccines.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    Charles said:

    With Parliament in recess from tomorrow until the New Year am I right in thinking that if the PM did suddenly say "talks have failed, we're going to WTO" then that would be it? No votes in Parliament or anything like it?

    Or could the Speaker unilaterally recall Parliament for an opposition Urgent Question or similar on that.


    The Government has a 80 seat majority. I'm not sure it matters either way.
    Pithy piece of legal analysis 😂
    Make him AG, he'd be better than Suella Braverman.
    That’s hardly a ringing endorsement. My tomcat would do better than Suella Cowardlyone but I don’t think he would be up to being AG.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    It's no consolation, but it seems to be just as bad throughout much of Europe. Even Denmark has had to impose a Christmas lockdown. We just need to hunker down until things improve, and wait for the vaccines.

    If somebody could section Nick Gibb, who seems to be deliberately trying to make matters worse, that would probably help somewhat.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    Gaussian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Gaussian said:

    Public Health Wales have officially said that there'll be around 11,000 cases reported tomorrow. In the graph below, I've redistributed 8000 of them across the four days with incomplete data to smooth the curve.

    England with 23,432 reported cases today after only 12,960 last Wednesday. More than half of the effect of the lockdown has already been undone.


    11k cases just in Wales o_O ?!
    Due to "planned maintenance", they've only reported around 2500 altogether for the last four days, so they've got an enormous backlog to put into the system.
    ok Well that's a little better, still not that good though.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,477
    FPT

    I like being privileged. I enjoy the privileges I have, and I'm excited about the thought of accruing more privileges as I go through life. I don't wish others were less privileged so I could be more privileged - that seems like screwed up logic.

    Congratulations on finding a new way of spectacularly missing the point on the issue of white privilege, a significant achievement given the wide range of bone-headed responses we've already seen on this topic here.
    We await your insightful contributions with interest.
    I've said loads on this topic, I feel like a broken record. Bottom line - living in a multiracial household I belive white privilege to be real, I have seen it in action. It is one of many ways (like class or sex) that some groups are treated better than others in ways that are unconnected to their talents or intrinsic worth. To be honest, it surprises me that people find it controversial and put so much effort into proving it doesn't exist, rather than listening to those who say it has affected them and finding ways of making society fairer.
    The idea of white privilege is (afaik) that white people communicating with other white people benefit from a sort of unconscious shortcut of supposed familiarity and approbation. So is the 'solution' to this problem that white people should be more suspicious and disapproving of each other? How would that help society? The problem is not white people being too privileged, it is non-white people not being privileged enough, and therefore the solution does not lie in attacking white privilege, but building non-white privilege. See also every other problem based on 'those people' having 'too much'. That's why white privilege being a problem is an absurdity.
    That is not what white privilege means, which perhaps explains your opposition to it. From the dictionary:
    “inherent advantages possessed by a white person on the basis of their race in a society characterized by racial inequality and injustice.“
    So what are these inherent advantages? If my explanation doesn't cover it, let's hear it.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    With Parliament in recess from tomorrow until the New Year am I right in thinking that if the PM did suddenly say "talks have failed, we're going to WTO" then that would be it? No votes in Parliament or anything like it?

    Or could the Speaker unilaterally recall Parliament for an opposition Urgent Question or similar on that.


    The Government has a 80 seat majority. I'm not sure it matters either way.
    Well indeed but it's amusing after all the furore over the prorogation that didn't even take us past exit day last time ... And now this can happen and people don't even blink an eye.
    You don't have to do anything legislative or executive or prerogative or anything else to make WTO happen. Time just has to pass.
  • Wales looks to me like a lockdown from tonight until Christmas Eve job to me (then local travel only) and then again after 28th.. but what do I know.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    Stocky said:

    @stodge

    I`ve just had an email from my local LibDem Chair. He say`s he hadn`t heard of the term "woke" until yesterday. He had to look it up. Are you surprised that local party activists have their heads up there arses or is this a common thing in your experience?

    Generally speaking, people assume that everyone else is familiar with the language of their circle. I've certainly never heard anyone use the term and I've mainly seen it on PB, but I gather that in right-wing circles it's in common use, always pejoratively. As with "political correctness", the origin was left-wing usage, but it's long since disappeared in any context other than reactionary derision.
    I have heard it used once by someone who did mean it positively, but as you say that is almost always not the case anymore, though many would no doubt agree with the original intended goals if not the label.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    If this story is accurate, then the government must know they are in deep, deep shit.

    https://www.tes.com/news/exclusive-dfe-considering-delay-start-next-term
  • Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    @stodge

    I`ve just had an email from my local LibDem Chair. He say`s he hadn`t heard of the term "woke" until yesterday. He had to look it up. Are you surprised that local party activists have their heads up there arses or is this a common thing in your experience?

    Generally speaking, people assume that everyone else is familiar with the language of their circle. I've certainly never heard anyone use the term and I've mainly seen it on PB, but I gather that in right-wing circles it's in common use, always pejoratively. As with "political correctness", the origin was left-wing usage, but it's long since disappeared in any context other than reactionary derision.
    Yes - I agree - it has - or at least the left is trying to make it disappear, largely because the term, though invented by the left, now represents a steaming turd on their own doorstep.

    Wokeism is not just a reactionary thing. It is profoundly illiberal. And he is the local Chair of the LibDems. He should be all over this.
    The liberals have lost sight of liberalism.

    That is why they are nowhere.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    ydoethur said:

    If this story is accurate, then the government must know they are in deep, deep shit.

    https://www.tes.com/news/exclusive-dfe-considering-delay-start-next-term

    In contrast my university seems to think we'll be having face-to-face teaching again in February. 🤷‍♂️
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    MaxPB said:

    Case figures look bad today in England.

    It's all looking pretty grim. Hospital admissions rising steadily, and deaths seem to have stopped falling too. Rats.
    Not any more.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,588
    Stocky said:

    @stodge

    I`ve just had an email from my local LibDem Chair. He say`s he hadn`t heard of the term "woke" until yesterday. He had to look it up. Are you surprised that local party activists have their heads up there arses or is this a common thing in your experience?

    You would have to be pretty uninterested in the recent political conversation not to have heard of the word. Although I've never heard anyone say it in real life, only read about online.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    ydoethur said:

    If this story is accurate, then the government must know they are in deep, deep shit.

    https://www.tes.com/news/exclusive-dfe-considering-delay-start-next-term

    I expect there are bits of government that know they are in deep shit, but not all of government knows or accepts it. In my experience a lot of people can see shit hitting the fan but are prevented from blocking the path.
  • Stocky said:

    @stodge

    I`ve just had an email from my local LibDem Chair. He say`s he hadn`t heard of the term "woke" until yesterday. He had to look it up. Are you surprised that local party activists have their heads up there arses or is this a common thing in your experience?

    Generally speaking, people assume that everyone else is familiar with the language of their circle. I've certainly never heard anyone use the term and I've mainly seen it on PB, but I gather that in right-wing circles it's in common use, always pejoratively. As with "political correctness", the origin was left-wing usage, but it's long since disappeared in any context other than reactionary derision.
    A few months ago I saw some newspaper comment pages from 1990.

    Did you know what the Mail and Sun called political correctness gone mad?

    Equality for gay people.
    Attitudes were very different then. And the direction can go both ways.

    There were those who thought the paedophile exchange was a good idea in the 70s, and marriage a repressive and outdated institution in the 90s, which civil partnerships would wholly replace one day. And the trans debate/gender identity debate now isn't simple either.

    It's good to test the arguments of those making arguments for major social change.
  • Jonathan said:
    I saw that earlier and I spent most of the afternoon trying to get rid of the image of John Major being pegged senseless.

    I failed.
    At least I know now what was on the stolen John Major Video Tape that Richie and Eddie tried to blackmail John Major with:

    Bottom, season 3 episode 6. "Carnival"

    [Eddie and Richie are watching a secret video of the prime minister and a woman, thinking it's him with his mother]

    Eddie : He's obviously got a very high fever.

    Richie : Yeah.

    Eddie : And that's why she sucking the poison out of him.

    [They both move closer to the TV]

    Richie : I wish I had a mum like that.

    [They both have a painful expression]

    Eddie : [To TV] Yeah, that's right! Thrash the fever out of him!

    Richie : He's saying something, Eddie. What's he saying? Turn the sound up!

    Eddie : [Turns the volume button] Oh no, I think it's mute.

    Richie : Well, you can lip-read. What's he saying?

    Eddie : Er... "Oh, yes! Ooooh, yes! Oh, yeeeees! Ooooh, yeeeees! Oh, oh, oh, yeeeeeees! OH, YEEEEES! OH YEEEHEEEHEEES! Aaaaaah!"

    Richie : Ah, he's, he's calmed down a bit now.

    Eddie : Hang on, who's she?

    Richie : That must be his... his aunty.

    [surprised expression]

    Richie : She's very friendly, isn't she?

    Eddie : I think they must be sisters.

    Richie : Yeah, that'll be it.

    [to TV]

    Richie : NO, DON'T SIT THERE!

    Eddie : She can't have seen him!

    Richie : He'll suffocate!

    Eddie : I can't think that that's hygenic!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    ydoethur said:

    If this story is accurate, then the government must know they are in deep, deep shit.

    https://www.tes.com/news/exclusive-dfe-considering-delay-start-next-term

    In contrast my university seems to think we'll be having face-to-face teaching again in February. 🤷‍♂️
    Have you tried selling them the Tyne Bridge? Could be decent money in it for you.
  • Stocky said:

    Assuming MPs aren't jetting all over the planet this Christmas, it does make recall very much easier. Especially with Zoom.
    Can they vote via Zoom?

    Does anyone know whether any trade deal legislation will be amendable?
    It won't. The Government has offered to consult Parliament, who will get a yes/no vote. Even that is not binding as the power to sign trade deals is reserved to the Executive. However, it would be a brave Executive that asked Parlament, got the answer "No", and then signed it anyway.
    I can make an exception for this year (where we have to ram through and replicate many trade deals asap) but in future I hope it becomes accepted that Parliament votes on future trade deals, just as we now do on major military commitments.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,209
    edited December 2020
    DougSeal said:

    Stocky said:

    @stodge

    I`ve just had an email from my local LibDem Chair. He say`s he hadn`t heard of the term "woke" until yesterday. He had to look it up. Are you surprised that local party activists have their heads up there arses or is this a common thing in your experience?

    It’s a word I have never heard used save by persons of a somewhat reactionary mindset. It may have started on the left but the right grabbed it and have run with it as fast as they possibly can.
    I think its original coining was to mean a black person becoming aware of the sometimes subtle ways in which they are kept down. "Waking up" to this. Great word for such an event or process really.

    But it is sadly now principally a weaponised word for facetious reactionaries to mock the whole notion of structural racism.
  • kinabalu said:

    DougSeal said:

    Stocky said:

    @stodge

    I`ve just had an email from my local LibDem Chair. He say`s he hadn`t heard of the term "woke" until yesterday. He had to look it up. Are you surprised that local party activists have their heads up there arses or is this a common thing in your experience?

    It’s a word I have never heard used save by persons of a somewhat reactionary mindset. It may have started on the left but the right grabbed it and have run with it as fast as they possibly can.
    I think its original coining was to mean a black person becoming aware of the sometimes subtle ways in which they are kept down. "Waking up" to this. Great word for such an event or process really.

    But it is sadly now principally a weaponised word for facetious reactionaries to mock the whole notion of structural racism.
    Sigh. It really isn't. We've covered this extensively today. And we even made progress.

    Please let's not go back to square one again.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831
    Pulpstar said:

    Gaussian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Gaussian said:

    Public Health Wales have officially said that there'll be around 11,000 cases reported tomorrow. In the graph below, I've redistributed 8000 of them across the four days with incomplete data to smooth the curve.

    England with 23,432 reported cases today after only 12,960 last Wednesday. More than half of the effect of the lockdown has already been undone.


    11k cases just in Wales o_O ?!
    Due to "planned maintenance", they've only reported around 2500 altogether for the last four days, so they've got an enormous backlog to put into the system.
    ok Well that's a little better, still not that good though.
    Yep, still going up at 1.5x a week. Thing is England is now on a similar growth rate, albeit from a lower starting level that's worth about two weeks at that rate.

    Weirdly, the summary page at https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk still says that "The latest R number is estimated at 0.9 to 1", which is complete and utter nonsense.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Pulpstar said:

    Have to wonder what the hell people are doing once the circuit breakers run out.

    The evidence surely is that, with no vaccine, the virus was always going to do what the virus was going to do, whatever any administration does. Just like any large scale natural phenomenon.

    Maybe we have slowed the virus down and spaced it out, at the cost of enormous collateral damage. But the notion of 'saving lives' is clearly utterly bogus. We may have 'delayed deaths' but at the cost of hastening other deaths, and maybe causing many unnecessary deaths.

  • Pulpstar said:

    Have to wonder what the hell people are doing once the circuit breakers run out.

    I suspect the young are not observing social distancing. Rarely bad for them but fatal for Granny etc.
This discussion has been closed.