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Remember when Betfair settled a US election market too early and paid out on the loser? – politicalb
Remember when Betfair settled a US election market too early and paid out on the loser? – politicalbetting.com
Back in January 2012 all the political betting interest was on the caucuses in Iowa the first state to decide in the race to choose the Republican nominee to take on Barack Obama.
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https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global?dmax=2020-12-06&fbclid=IwAR32hL75kdz_d_UU57eUBbNmSPSOVgRYZFZYVoDUeIWjTBtahLl592aoG5Q
I see QAnon have been at work:
https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1339009958629793794?s=19
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Iowa_Democratic_presidential_caucuses
I am educated now.
https://twitter.com/hurryupharry/status/1338117574261940224
I think he's still got a better than average shot to make it to the top job in the next half century.
You know what: I believe that white people are - on average - more privileged than people of colour. I believe that - on average - men are more privileged than women, that the straight are more privileged than the gay, and that the able bodied are more privileged than the disabled.
But you know what else I know: that those with parents who give a shit about education are privileged; that those with parents that stay together are privileged, that those born in the UK are privileged; that those who came into being in the late 20th Century are privileged, and should I go on?
Privilege is ultimately individual. One cannot simply look at a single measure and say that person is privileged. Indeed, when you do so, and you say that to a white person living in poverty in Appalachia with a father that left long ago and a mother addicted to opioids, you know what you're going to get: insurrection and violence. You can't look at them and say they're privileged, because compared to the average American, they're not.
It's time to start thinking of people as individuals and recognise their own struggles, rather than chucking them in some big bucket and saying "lo, you are the bucket."
https://twitter.com/LLinWood/status/1338715369566048256
Imagine if Trump were re-elected in 2024, and the Krakens were in the Justice Department...
...charged for running a man off the road and pointing a gun at his head in an attempt to prove claims of a massive voter fraud scheme in Harris County, according to a news release from the Harris County's DA's office.
Mark Anthony Aguirre, 63, was arrested by Houston police Tuesday and charged with aggravated assault with a deadly weapon, a second-degree felony punishable by up to 20 years in prison.
"He crossed the line from dirty politics to commission of a violent crime, and we are lucky no one was killed," Harris County District Attorney Kim Ogg said. "His alleged investigation was backward from the start - first alleging a crime had occurred and then trying to prove it happened."
"botched raid" = he shot an innocent citizen?
Or maybe it was his botched raid....
Anyway, he sounds like Ralph from "Wait Til Your Father Gets Home" in the 70's, made flesh. (I think it used to be on just before Weekend World, late Sunday mornings)
They're too afraid too right now and I don't entirely blame them. The bizarre constitutional set up that generates a near 3-month gap from election to inauguration is to blame. It relies on decency but breaks down when you have an as5hole in the White House.
Stripped of office, Trump will no longer look or sound like a person of power. He will still rant and rave but he will come to regret making so many enemies. There's that moment in House of Cards when the big cheese Raymond Tusk suddenly finds himself facing jail ...
It’s just as likely, perhaps more so, that the party remains in thrall to him.
So that presumably means there are people out there who now believe these fake votes went on to be cast because the ex-cop stopped the wrong van.
Maybe a new centre right party will be the medium term solution? There's been mutterings.
When Biden actually gets sworn in it could turn really nasty.
"While Downing Street acknowledges that allowing more household mixing from December 23 to 27 may push up infections, the feeling is it would be even worse to cancel Christmas and face the prospect of a disgruntled public abandoning the rules altogether in the New Year."
They're too worried about his influence with Primary voters. I expect they're hearing directly from a lot of these voters.
I doubt the politicians can resolve this problem either way and it is time everyone took responsibility for their own safety
Mr. Borough, I have quite a lot of sympathy with that position.
If a harder line had been taken earlier it would've stood a better chance of general adherence, but changing when most people will have planned things out would see more people not following guidelines.
F1: There's a 2021 testing market up. As usual, I have very little interest in backing anything in that market.
Put Sky News on this morning and they're talking about "personal responsibility" at Christmas rather than banging on about the limits of what can be done.
It's a Christmas miracle. Most responsible I've seen the media all year.
Oh and Kay Burley isn't on and someone else is instead. Coincidence or not?
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1339117194576343040
Johnson is no real leader and we are suffering the consequences.
There are people who have no option but to work in public-facing roles who can do little to protect themselves. A call for personal responsibility is victim-blaming.
We need a leader more interested in doing what is right than what is popular.
Then when it was clear there would be a problem, say late October, started saying it will not be illegal to gather but we strongly urge against on medical grounds and that is the message we will be delivering until the xmas arrives.
But we are were we are. Far too late now to tell people the rules are changing again. That way does lie mass disobedience and so on. Travel plans have been made now etc etc.
Postpone to Easter would have been an easier sell than foregoing it completely.
Which granny hasn't heard that message or thought it for themselves?
The messaging for this has been awful. The lockdowns have not worked and show increasingly limited utility in controlling the virus. Relaxations do show it is "ok" even if the advice is otherwise, apparently. It is just sad that independent thought seems such an endangered species.
And coincidence or not but without her the reporting is far, far more responsible this morning.
Talking about "personal responsibility" and making smart choices rather than trying to find hypothetical edge case limits of what is legally permissible.
https://twitter.com/adamcooperF1/status/1339119614429720577
They are doing the exact polar opposite of what they should be doing. Its not a surprise with this lot, and once again the inevitable death toll will be on their hands come Jan/Feb.
Doesn't mean that you should be going to see granny or give her a hug. Which they've been saying and emphasising Easter for weeks since the vaccine was announced.
More than one thing can be true simultaneously.
It shouldn't happen but there was a chance it could until SCOTUS ruled.
There is inevitably going to be more going back and forward between University and home in the coming weeks. For example my nephew has a part time job at Tesco's in Dundee and is coming up to Dundee to work there at weekends staying in his University accommodation. Students will continue to meet up for both study and entertainment purposes. That is just inevitable.
As his own Sec of State said: "he's a moron".
This makes me very angry.
I am choosing not to see my mother - in her 70s - at Christmas. It would be a stupid risk to run for her.
People need to grow up, look at the facts and do the right thing. Personal responsibility for your own health, the health of your friends and family and for society as a whole is at the heart of everything.
A leader should be calling for that and trusting the public
It seems entirely reasonable that the neighbours hold him to that
The big risk isn't so much me killing granny because of meeting up over Christmas, it's granny being killed because she goes to the shops in January when there's more virus in circulation. And there's less I can do about that, because the circulation of virus depends on what everyone else does. So I might as well go up to the limits of family mixing.
It's a bit like the issue some people (ninnies mostly) have with masks. I'm not wearing a mask to protect me, I'm wearing it to protect other people and hoping that they will reciprocate. As a culture, we're not brilliant at weighing up those calculations.
The other trouble is that this government is so fearful of looking weak (because it is run by weak people, they have to go to unhealthy lengths to appear strong), they can't even run with "we can't stop you, but please don't" messaging. Because that would be to admit their weakness and that the "Operation Save Christmas" controls of autumn failed. You know, like some people were accusing Mark the Welshman of yesterday, when they thought he was blocking this, not Boris.
He torched any chance of doing this when he failed to sack Cummings who not only failed to take personal responsibility for your own health, the health of your friends and family and for society as a whole, he got a prime TV slot to lie about it
Just about got away with it I would say.
The strains are already severe though. Watch Georgia. I'm beginning to think the Dems can take both seats.
There is no one who is not aware of the Covid risks. Whether they be 20 or 80. Hence we should be trusted to do what we believe we want to or think right. For some that will be seeing their 80-yr old parents; for some that will not be seeing their 80-yr old parents.
I don't think anyone will go directly from a knees-up at Spoons to their 80-yr old parents.
I think given the risk profile it is mostly for the 80-yr old parents to decide ultimately. For some of those, Christmas and seeing family is a hugely important part of their lives in a pretty miserable year, perhaps enough for it to be a significant factor in their mental health wellbeing; for others they will not mind waiting a few more months to see the family.
It is the Courts job to issue rulings, it is not Betfair's. If Betfair starts preempting rulings then where do they draw the line?
The law provides a cut off date and the Ts and C's explicitly mentioned waiting for the official results. They paid out on the day of the official results as their Ts and C's explicitly mentioned.
(There was a lot more going on behind the scenes with Tillerson. He couldn’t adapt from being the bloke in charge to being one of a team)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9057857/Palm-Beach-residents-demand-town-ban-Trump-moving-Mar-Lago.html
Live by the lawsuit, die by the lawsuit.
Primaries (and one member one vote here) are more democratic for the party memberships but less democratic and more divisive for the countries they run.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/maralago-florida-trump-white-house-b1774737.html
Before condemning President Trump's new neighbours, remember that every time he steps out for a pint of milk, the Secret Service will close the roads.
This is a Dogs Must Be Carried situation.
It is not mandatory to carry a dog on the tube and if you decide not to carry a dog on the tube you are unlikely to get into trouble.
But such rules would have inflicted unnecessary harm on areas with low prevalence of the virus. The tier system and its complexity was designed to mitigate that damage. I am not sure that it has worked but I can fully understand why they felt the need to try.
It's not impossible, but there is simply no Republican leader in sight who might attempt such a process, or possess the capacity to carry it out.
Rather like the White House....
Consider Coco Chanel at the Savoy.
I think the importance of the Georgia Senate elections are being overplayed, regardless of the result there will be a group of about half a dozen median Senators across the parties with effective control, not McConnell nor Biden.