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Some Definitions – politicalbetting.com

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  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Exam in 50 mins. Wish me luck.

    Good luck!
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    FF43 said:

    Roger said:

    A very fine header cyclefree. I didn't manage to read it yesterday.

    I heard on radio yesterday that negotiating deals is what the EU excels at. Apparently there is nowhere in the world better.

    Something else we will lose in this quest for the chimera called sovereignty

    The EU is screwed, once we are properly out and seen to be doing ok, others will want to free themsemves from the EU yoke. I voted remain, but the EU "negotiation" is not about the deal, ,its about protecting the EU institution.
    In part it is about protecting the EU institution. All membership organisations need to maximise the value of membership. If you are out you don't get what you get when you are in. I wouldn't assume others will follow us out the door (aka "free themselves from the EU yoke"). Brexit has so far had the opposite effect of making people in the EU appreciate what they have got.
    Bollocks. The trauma of Brexit has made eurosceptic member states worry about the cost and grief of divorce. And rightly: Article 50 is designed to be horrifically painful. That was the explicit intent of the guy who wrote it, a Brit, Lord Kerr. He intended to deter future secessions, as he has admitted, by making departure a nightmare.

    This is very different from making skeptical countries *love the EU even more*. They don’t.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Scott_xP said:
    It was a hilarious interview. Poor Sharma. Why he didn't simply say his leader had a tick that made him say the first thing that came into his head and 'no' he couldn't explain it is a mystery.
  • Take f##king action....but no going to wait until the new year

    BBC News - Covid: Grange Hospital 'at tipping point' with coronavirus patients
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55299862
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,315

    Exam in 50 mins. Wish me luck.

    Best of luck!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    kamski said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC saying Trump has since the election raised $250,000,000 - only a small part of which has actually gone to the legal cases, the rest ready to be syphoned off by Trump himself. So no wonder he isnt conceding.

    That's a lot of money. Not enough to pay off the 340million he owes to Deutsche Bank, let alone his other creditors:
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2020/10/16/donald-trump-has-at-least-1-billion-in-debt-more-than-twice-the-amount-he-suggested/
    but still a lot of money.

    I'm hoping many of his angrier supporters realise they've been duped by a member of the metropolitan elite that they hate.
    It suggests a reason for his ongoing behaviour - he is being massively rewarded for it. All he has to do is keep on dancing, and his adoring fans shower him with money.

    In a month, he has raised enough money to pay off 20% of his debts, if Forbes is correct. Being able to payoff such a major chunk of debt in cash would allow him to re-finance/extend the remaining debt. Assuming he can find someone will to lend....

    Why not keep going?
  • LadyG said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Freedom to ignore the pathetic, self serving, myopic europhile wankery of people like him, or, indeed, you?

    One of the GREAT benefits of Brexit is that Remoaners will finally have to STFU, because, quite frankly, no one will care. Listening to people like Maugham or Dunt or Alibhai-Brown will be the 21st century equivalent of going to Bedlam to laugh at the loonies. Entertaining in a way, but really quite inhumane and ultimately very dull. Let them rant and wear their tricorn hats and think they are Napoleon. Let them do it unobserved
    Projection.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    The man is mad....

    BBC News - Covid-19: Trump rejects plan for early vaccines at White House
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-55298015

    How many other countries join the US in having current daily death totals above those of peak first wave?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    On the vaccine - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55295702

    - So far, only hospital based vaccinations
    - GP vaccinations start this week. 100 practices to start with, growing to 1200
    - They seem to be taking the approach of targeting the over 80s, with a list of health workers to take up any "spare" vaccinations. I presume due to the shelf life after de-frosting.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    A very fine header cyclefree. I didn't manage to read it yesterday.

    I heard on radio yesterday that negotiating deals is what the EU excels at. Apparently there is nowhere in the world better.

    Something else we will lose in this quest for the chimera called sovereignty

    The EU is screwed, once we are properly out and seen to be doing ok, others will want to free themsemves from the EU yoke. I voted remain, but the EU "negotiation" is not about the deal, ,its about protecting the EU institution.
    Interesting but the odds are very much the other way. As the US declines the EU could well move on from being the biggest trading block in the world into being one of the most powerful political blocks. Losing the UK with their permanent hand brake on is likely to help them. The EU is almost certain to take a place on the security council and the UK could lose theirs.
    Yeah, coz the French are gonna be absolutely cool with giving their UNSC seat to Germany, in effect. You’re an idiot. It may happen in the end, by force majeure, but it will take decades, and it will take a very brave and very weak French president.
  • I've also posted a link to pb on Twitter before and had people say they got taken to some spam site, I'm pretty sure they didn't mean this one but it always loads correctly for me...

    It is possible lots of people have browser exploits, and also that some family-friendly web filters have this site on the naughty list.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,191

    kamski said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC saying Trump has since the election raised $250,000,000 - only a small part of which has actually gone to the legal cases, the rest ready to be syphoned off by Trump himself. So no wonder he isnt conceding.

    That's a lot of money. Not enough to pay off the 340million he owes to Deutsche Bank, let alone his other creditors:
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2020/10/16/donald-trump-has-at-least-1-billion-in-debt-more-than-twice-the-amount-he-suggested/
    but still a lot of money.

    I'm hoping many of his angrier supporters realise they've been duped by a member of the metropolitan elite that they hate.
    It suggests a reason for his ongoing behaviour - he is being massively rewarded for it. All he has to do is keep on dancing, and his adoring fans shower him with money.

    In a month, he has raised enough money to pay off 20% of his debts, if Forbes is correct. Being able to payoff such a major chunk of debt in cash would allow him to re-finance/extend the remaining debt. Assuming he can find someone will to lend....

    Why not keep going?
    Actually I kind of assume that the money raised that's going into his PAC can't be directly used to pay of Trump's debts. But this is Trump we're talking about so who knows...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364

    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    TimT said:

    nico679 said:

    DavidL said:

    I don’t think that I agree with @Cyclefree’s analysis. This is not just a power play.

    Both sides want a deal or, perhaps more accurately, neither side wants the blame for failing to have a deal. The UK probably wants a deal more because it has a bigger impact on it. So the EU has the power, right?

    Not necessarily. In my experience a party that is willing to gamble more, to take the bigger risk, often gets what it wants. Their position may be irrational but if they hold in there sometimes the other side’s desire for a deal means agreement is reached on terms closer to what the reckless party wants than you would expect.

    The UK is being reckless here. They are giving the impression of being genuinely willing to risk no deal. That may be what they end up with. But it’s not a sure thing, whatever the objective measure of their respective strengths are.

    Interesting point . I think there’s two ways to look at this .The UK has both a weak and strong hand which might seem strange at the same time .

    The weak part is the EU has the much bigger market and no deal is likely to harm the UK more , the strong part is Johnson is now viewed as willing to burn the whole house down . The EU might be wondering that he might just be crazy enough to go for no deal . I personally think the sovereignty argument is a pile of tosh as all trade agreements mean you give some of that up especially with a big market but he can always revert to that and will have a mostly willing press to argue for him . Personally I don’t see any downsides to him getting a deal . He has an 80 seat majority , the ERG don’t have enough votes to cause him problems . Even if they hate the deal and say they put the letters in , he’d comfortably win that vote . The next election is years away , the public are unlikely to be voting on Brexit if he gets a deal but could well do if he doesn’t and the economy suffers. Interestingly any deal will go to a vote , legally this doesn’t need to happen but I suspect it’s only being done to put Labour in a difficult position .
    Indeed, DavidL.

    The time honored way to win at Chicken may appear irrational, but is highly rational. You signal your absolute determination to win by throwing your steering wheel out of the window (while the other driver is watching so he/she knows what you have done). The other driver then knows that he/she cannot win - the 'best' they can achieve is a head-on collision, so the only rational option left at that point is for that other driver to steer away and lose.

    Will is about the most important thing in negotiations - look at Putin.
    But it would be a head-on collision between a medium-sized van and a largeish but lighter milk-float. The EU and Britain are not equal in economic size, and this is why Johnson's technique hasn't worked so far.
    Economic size is not particularly relevant. It means, at the most, that the UK might suffer a more substantial shock but if we are willing to run that risk the EU have to decide whether they are willing to pay their share of the cost to teach us a lesson.

    A no deal Brexit means the loss of tens of thousands of EU jobs. The impact is more diffuse although Eire and the fishing communities of France would be particularly badly affected. It also means the loss of tens of thousands of UK jobs as well as our trade re-orientates. In an economy with over 31m employed this is not the end of the world but it is far from optimal and it should be avoided if it can be. The same applies to the EU. Both parties have to decide if not having a deal is worth the cost.
    I can't agree here at all. Economic size, or more accurately dispersal, is certainly relevant, because throughout the bloc the shock will be distributed in a vey different way. I'm afraid I must say that to me this reads a lot like a more educated incarnation of the illusions that have led us up to this point.
    COVID is quite instructive. It has been catastrophic for some people, but most people are unaffected and spending money like it’s going out of fashion. I think the same would happen with no deal brexit.
    People are spending the money they saved by not being allowed to take a holiday or go down the pub. The Times (£££) tells us this amounts to £7,000 for the average household.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/lockdown-savings-give-households-a-7-000-christmas-present-hnl0vbfv9 (£££)
    In London, the domestic building trade is running at capacity - everyone who can is extending/digging.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    Roger said:

    A very fine header cyclefree. I didn't manage to read it yesterday.

    I heard on radio yesterday that negotiating deals is what the EU excels at. Apparently there is nowhere in the world better.

    Something else we will lose in this quest for the chimera called sovereignty

    The EU is screwed, once we are properly out and seen to be doing ok, others will want to free themsemves from the EU yoke. I voted remain, but the EU "negotiation" is not about the deal, ,its about protecting the EU institution.
    You are one of many Remainers who post on PB and have subsequently enthusiastically bought into Brexit.

    The opinion polls must be wrong.
    I havent bought into brexit at all. I still think we are better off overall in, for all the EU's sins. However i loathe the likes or Barnier.
    It just gets stranger. Barnier is one of the two politicians I would love to be on our side. The other is Van Dur Luyden. Not just for their political skills-though they're very impressive- but for their articulacy and elegance. Our side look leaden next to them.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    On the vaccine - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55295702

    - So far, only hospital based vaccinations
    - GP vaccinations start this week. 100 practices to start with, growing to 1200
    - They seem to be taking the approach of targeting the over 80s, with a list of health workers to take up any "spare" vaccinations. I presume due to the shelf life after de-frosting.

    Once the vaccine is delivered, there will be no messing around. GP practices will receive batches containing 975 doses. These will have been thawed out - they are kept in ultra-cold storage in hospital - which means practices only have three-and-a-half days to use them up.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788

    On the vaccine - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55295702

    - So far, only hospital based vaccinations
    - GP vaccinations start this week. 100 practices to start with, growing to 1200
    - They seem to be taking the approach of targeting the over 80s, with a list of health workers to take up any "spare" vaccinations. I presume due to the shelf life after de-frosting.

    Glad they seem to have a plan to make sure as much of it is used as possible.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751

    On the vaccine - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55295702

    - So far, only hospital based vaccinations
    - GP vaccinations start this week. 100 practices to start with, growing to 1200
    - They seem to be taking the approach of targeting the over 80s, with a list of health workers to take up any "spare" vaccinations. I presume due to the shelf life after de-frosting.

    My parents’ (large) GP practice in a big commuter town has sent an email to all patients, saying that no one registered there will receive the Pfizer vaccine and will instead receive the AZN vaccine. So stop calling us.

    Seems an odd bit of messaging given AZN still has no approval!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,601
    LadyG said:

    FF43 said:

    Roger said:

    A very fine header cyclefree. I didn't manage to read it yesterday.

    I heard on radio yesterday that negotiating deals is what the EU excels at. Apparently there is nowhere in the world better.

    Something else we will lose in this quest for the chimera called sovereignty

    The EU is screwed, once we are properly out and seen to be doing ok, others will want to free themsemves from the EU yoke. I voted remain, but the EU "negotiation" is not about the deal, ,its about protecting the EU institution.
    In part it is about protecting the EU institution. All membership organisations need to maximise the value of membership. If you are out you don't get what you get when you are in. I wouldn't assume others will follow us out the door (aka "free themselves from the EU yoke"). Brexit has so far had the opposite effect of making people in the EU appreciate what they have got.
    Bollocks. The trauma of Brexit has made eurosceptic member states worry about the cost and grief of divorce. And rightly: Article 50 is designed to be horrifically painful. That was the explicit intent of the guy who wrote it, a Brit, Lord Kerr. He intended to deter future secessions, as he has admitted, by making departure a nightmare.

    This is very different from making skeptical countries *love the EU even more*. They don’t.
    There has been a positive benefit to being in the EU whilst the UK was making huge contributions that could be showered around as regional aid. Now we have gone - not so much. Much more stick, far less carrot.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Good luck, Mr. Gate.
  • kamski said:

    Biden back out to 1.03 on the day of the Electoral College vote. Current Betfair prices:-

    Biden 1.03
    Democrats 1.02
    Biden PV 1.02
    Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.03
    Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.02
    Trump ECV 210-239 1.03
    Biden ECV 300-329 1.03
    Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.03
    Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.03
    Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 no offers

    AZ Dem 1.02
    GA Dem 1.02
    MI Dem 1.02
    NV Dem 1.02
    PA Dem 1.02
    WI Dem 1.03

    Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.05
    Trump exit date 2021 1.05

    Is there any reason why Trump not leaving before end of term has come in so much? Seem to remember it was 1.11 a few days ago.
    I would have thought the only likely way that Trump leaves before the end of his term would be if he resigns to grant himself a pardon, not sure why that has become significantly less likely. If anything the chance of him winning disappearing (if punters ever believed them) makes it more likely that he WILL leave before the end of his term, or?
    Maybe I'm missing something, but it seems illogical. NB can't see the actual market myself.
    Tick tock. It is the passage of time. If Trump is planning to resign in favour of Pence (and a pardon) then he is running out of time to do so.

    Trump to leave before end of first term:
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.129133401

    Trump exit date:
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.138799270

    Currently the favourites are 1.05 on both.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    On the vaccine - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55295702

    - So far, only hospital based vaccinations
    - GP vaccinations start this week. 100 practices to start with, growing to 1200
    - They seem to be taking the approach of targeting the over 80s, with a list of health workers to take up any "spare" vaccinations. I presume due to the shelf life after de-frosting.

    We're getting our medical supplies across from North Island by drone, now:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stT86QcYsdw

    So we'll be watching it for our first shipment of vaccine..
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    A very fine header cyclefree. I didn't manage to read it yesterday.

    I heard on radio yesterday that negotiating deals is what the EU excels at. Apparently there is nowhere in the world better.

    Something else we will lose in this quest for the chimera called sovereignty

    The EU is screwed, once we are properly out and seen to be doing ok, others will want to free themsemves from the EU yoke. I voted remain, but the EU "negotiation" is not about the deal, ,its about protecting the EU institution.
    You are one of many Remainers who post on PB and have subsequently enthusiastically bought into Brexit.

    The opinion polls must be wrong.
    I havent bought into brexit at all. I still think we are better off overall in, for all the EU's sins. However i loathe the likes or Barnier.
    It just gets stranger. Barnier is one of the two politicians I would love to be on our side. The other is Van Dur Luyden. Not just for their political skills-though they're very impressive- but for their articulacy and elegance. Our side look leaden next to them.
    You misspelled van Der liyyyen’s name, badly, and you seem unaware that she was a notoriously unpopular and incompetent German defence minister. That’s why she was shuffled off to Brussels. Apart from that, good post
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,191

    On how to leave the EU:
    The only sensible way to do it would have been into the safe arms of a soft Brexit, after which voters would be able to vote go further if they wanted to.
    Unfortunately Conservative MPs kept voting against that option, the shits.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,601
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    A very fine header cyclefree. I didn't manage to read it yesterday.

    I heard on radio yesterday that negotiating deals is what the EU excels at. Apparently there is nowhere in the world better.

    Something else we will lose in this quest for the chimera called sovereignty

    The EU is screwed, once we are properly out and seen to be doing ok, others will want to free themsemves from the EU yoke. I voted remain, but the EU "negotiation" is not about the deal, ,its about protecting the EU institution.
    You are one of many Remainers who post on PB and have subsequently enthusiastically bought into Brexit.

    The opinion polls must be wrong.
    I havent bought into brexit at all. I still think we are better off overall in, for all the EU's sins. However i loathe the likes or Barnier.
    It just gets stranger. Barnier is one of the two politicians I would love to be on our side. The other is Van Dur Luyden. Not just for their political skills-though they're very impressive- but for their articulacy and elegance. Our side look leaden next to them.
    Roger, we Brits are a lumpen people. We are on the cold, wet fringes of NW Europe. Our bodies put on fat against the winter. We just don't look good against people who have an agreeable climate and diet.

    And their haute couture just doesn't fit our lumpen body politic.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,218
    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:
    It was a hilarious interview. Poor Sharma. Why he didn't simply say his leader had a tick that made him say the first thing that came into his head and 'no' he couldn't explain it is a mystery.
    I'm starting to notice quite a few interviews now where this or that cabinet minister has to try and justify some piece of utter bollocks that Boris Johnson has come out with. They take different tacks, depending who it is, but there's no obvious best way to do it. I sense the more senior ones are more able to hint at their exasperation (with Johnson) than the others. Regardless, I feel sorry for them. I know they weren't forced to become lackies, and I know they're paid well, but still, everyone deserves dignity and these Conservative politicians at the court of "Boris" are being cruelly stripped of theirs.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364

    kamski said:

    Biden back out to 1.03 on the day of the Electoral College vote. Current Betfair prices:-

    Biden 1.03
    Democrats 1.02
    Biden PV 1.02
    Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.03
    Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.02
    Trump ECV 210-239 1.03
    Biden ECV 300-329 1.03
    Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.03
    Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.03
    Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 no offers

    AZ Dem 1.02
    GA Dem 1.02
    MI Dem 1.02
    NV Dem 1.02
    PA Dem 1.02
    WI Dem 1.03

    Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.05
    Trump exit date 2021 1.05

    Is there any reason why Trump not leaving before end of term has come in so much? Seem to remember it was 1.11 a few days ago.
    I would have thought the only likely way that Trump leaves before the end of his term would be if he resigns to grant himself a pardon, not sure why that has become significantly less likely. If anything the chance of him winning disappearing (if punters ever believed them) makes it more likely that he WILL leave before the end of his term, or?
    Maybe I'm missing something, but it seems illogical. NB can't see the actual market myself.
    Tick tock. It is the passage of time. If Trump is planning to resign in favour of Pence (and a pardon) then he is running out of time to do so.

    Trump to leave before end of first term:
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.129133401

    Trump exit date:
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.138799270

    Currently the favourites are 1.05 on both.
    I had a thought the other day. Trump doesn't need to resign.

    He uses the Temporary-25th-For-Medical thing - say, has a general for dental work. This means that Pence is acting President for some hours. Pence can issue a pardon. Trump wakes up as President again....

    This has the advantage of looking normal (well, to Trump). And not quitting as president - which would mean being a Loser to Trump.

    The quid pro quo would be a catch all pardon for Pence. *After* he does the above....
  • theakestheakes Posts: 931
    Trade Negotiations , boring, boring.
    Sometimes you make a wrong decision and either have to put it right or live with it.
    Looks as if the government is trying to do both, it is one or the other.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    edited December 2020
    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC saying Trump has since the election raised $250,000,000 - only a small part of which has actually gone to the legal cases, the rest ready to be syphoned off by Trump himself. So no wonder he isnt conceding.

    That's a lot of money. Not enough to pay off the 340million he owes to Deutsche Bank, let alone his other creditors:
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2020/10/16/donald-trump-has-at-least-1-billion-in-debt-more-than-twice-the-amount-he-suggested/
    but still a lot of money.

    I'm hoping many of his angrier supporters realise they've been duped by a member of the metropolitan elite that they hate.
    It suggests a reason for his ongoing behaviour - he is being massively rewarded for it. All he has to do is keep on dancing, and his adoring fans shower him with money.

    In a month, he has raised enough money to pay off 20% of his debts, if Forbes is correct. Being able to payoff such a major chunk of debt in cash would allow him to re-finance/extend the remaining debt. Assuming he can find someone will to lend....

    Why not keep going?
    Actually I kind of assume that the money raised that's going into his PAC can't be directly used to pay of Trump's debts. But this is Trump we're talking about so who knows...
    They can book events at Trump venues. They can employ people (Former Rep Doolittle - remarkably aptly naming - used a PAC to make payments to a firm that employed only his wife). They can buy gifts and products, cover hotel bills, baseball tickets for donors (cr former Rep Pombo).

    At the least it means that if Trump runs again, he won't have to put up his own money, and will be able to channel a good proportion of the funds into his own businesses (assuming they are still afloat)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    TimT said:

    nico679 said:

    DavidL said:

    I don’t think that I agree with @Cyclefree’s analysis. This is not just a power play.

    Both sides want a deal or, perhaps more accurately, neither side wants the blame for failing to have a deal. The UK probably wants a deal more because it has a bigger impact on it. So the EU has the power, right?

    Not necessarily. In my experience a party that is willing to gamble more, to take the bigger risk, often gets what it wants. Their position may be irrational but if they hold in there sometimes the other side’s desire for a deal means agreement is reached on terms closer to what the reckless party wants than you would expect.

    The UK is being reckless here. They are giving the impression of being genuinely willing to risk no deal. That may be what they end up with. But it’s not a sure thing, whatever the objective measure of their respective strengths are.

    Interesting point . I think there’s two ways to look at this .The UK has both a weak and strong hand which might seem strange at the same time .

    The weak part is the EU has the much bigger market and no deal is likely to harm the UK more , the strong part is Johnson is now viewed as willing to burn the whole house down . The EU might be wondering that he might just be crazy enough to go for no deal . I personally think the sovereignty argument is a pile of tosh as all trade agreements mean you give some of that up especially with a big market but he can always revert to that and will have a mostly willing press to argue for him . Personally I don’t see any downsides to him getting a deal . He has an 80 seat majority , the ERG don’t have enough votes to cause him problems . Even if they hate the deal and say they put the letters in , he’d comfortably win that vote . The next election is years away , the public are unlikely to be voting on Brexit if he gets a deal but could well do if he doesn’t and the economy suffers. Interestingly any deal will go to a vote , legally this doesn’t need to happen but I suspect it’s only being done to put Labour in a difficult position .
    Indeed, DavidL.

    The time honored way to win at Chicken may appear irrational, but is highly rational. You signal your absolute determination to win by throwing your steering wheel out of the window (while the other driver is watching so he/she knows what you have done). The other driver then knows that he/she cannot win - the 'best' they can achieve is a head-on collision, so the only rational option left at that point is for that other driver to steer away and lose.

    Will is about the most important thing in negotiations - look at Putin.
    But it would be a head-on collision between a medium-sized van and a largeish but lighter milk-float. The EU and Britain are not equal in economic size, and this is why Johnson's technique hasn't worked so far.
    Economic size is not particularly relevant. It means, at the most, that the UK might suffer a more substantial shock but if we are willing to run that risk the EU have to decide whether they are willing to pay their share of the cost to teach us a lesson.

    A no deal Brexit means the loss of tens of thousands of EU jobs. The impact is more diffuse although Eire and the fishing communities of France would be particularly badly affected. It also means the loss of tens of thousands of UK jobs as well as our trade re-orientates. In an economy with over 31m employed this is not the end of the world but it is far from optimal and it should be avoided if it can be. The same applies to the EU. Both parties have to decide if not having a deal is worth the cost.
    I can't agree here at all. Economic size, or more accurately dispersal, is certainly relevant, because throughout the bloc the shock will be distributed in a vey different way. I'm afraid I must say that to me this reads a lot like a more educated incarnation of the illusions that have led us up to this point.
    COVID is quite instructive. It has been catastrophic for some people, but most people are unaffected and spending money like it’s going out of fashion. I think the same would happen with no deal brexit.
    People are spending the money they saved by not being allowed to take a holiday or go down the pub. The Times (£££) tells us this amounts to £7,000 for the average household.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/lockdown-savings-give-households-a-7-000-christmas-present-hnl0vbfv9 (£££)
    In London, the domestic building trade is running at capacity - everyone who can is extending/digging.
    Here's hoping the tunnels don't come up short of the woods
  • TimT said:

    nico679 said:

    DavidL said:

    I don’t think that I agree with @Cyclefree’s analysis. This is not just a power play.

    Both sides want a deal or, perhaps more accurately, neither side wants the blame for failing to have a deal. The UK probably wants a deal more because it has a bigger impact on it. So the EU has the power, right?

    Not necessarily. In my experience a party that is willing to gamble more, to take the bigger risk, often gets what it wants. Their position may be irrational but if they hold in there sometimes the other side’s desire for a deal means agreement is reached on terms closer to what the reckless party wants than you would expect.

    The UK is being reckless here. They are giving the impression of being genuinely willing to risk no deal. That may be what they end up with. But it’s not a sure thing, whatever the objective measure of their respective strengths are.

    Interesting point . I think there’s two ways to look at this .The UK has both a weak and strong hand which might seem strange at the same time .

    The weak part is the EU has the much bigger market and no deal is likely to harm the UK more , the strong part is Johnson is now viewed as willing to burn the whole house down . The EU might be wondering that he might just be crazy enough to go for no deal . I personally think the sovereignty argument is a pile of tosh as all trade agreements mean you give some of that up especially with a big market but he can always revert to that and will have a mostly willing press to argue for him . Personally I don’t see any downsides to him getting a deal . He has an 80 seat majority , the ERG don’t have enough votes to cause him problems . Even if they hate the deal and say they put the letters in , he’d comfortably win that vote . The next election is years away , the public are unlikely to be voting on Brexit if he gets a deal but could well do if he doesn’t and the economy suffers. Interestingly any deal will go to a vote , legally this doesn’t need to happen but I suspect it’s only being done to put Labour in a difficult position .
    Indeed, DavidL.

    The time honored way to win at Chicken may appear irrational, but is highly rational. You signal your absolute determination to win by throwing your steering wheel out of the window (while the other driver is watching so he/she knows what you have done). The other driver then knows that he/she cannot win - the 'best' they can achieve is a head-on collision, so the only rational option left at that point is for that other driver to steer away and lose.

    Will is about the most important thing in negotiations - look at Putin.
    But it would be a head-on collision between a medium-sized van and a largeish but lighter milk-float. The EU and Britain are not equal in economic size, and this is why Johnson's technique hasn't worked so far.
    But size both doesn't matter and that isn't the relationship between them. People like you make much of the fact the EU is bigger than the UK but don't put much thought beyond that. Size isn't everything and the UK is not some weak, small milk float.

    The EU combined is the world's second largest economy, the UK is the world's sixth largest.

    The relevant size ratio between the EU and the UK is comparable to that between the UK and Saudi Arabia, even with all the oil Saudi Arabia deals with. I wonder how many here would say Saudi Arabia is a milk float relative to the UK?
    Most people would say that Saudi Arabia is further away than Europe. In the gravitational model of international trade, distance (or distance squared) counts as well as size, and Dominic Raab just texted me to say France is just past Dover. He's probably never been to Northern Ireland.
    Well indeed distance matters but that cuts both ways. We are more valuable to them too.

    People make out like the UK is tiny relative to the EU but it's not true. Their economy isn't 27x our own, it is "just" 5x. Or in the inane words of WhisperingOracle it is a mere five milk floats.

    To do a further illustration if the UK was Northern Ireland then the EU wouldn't be England it would be Scotland in relative size.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited December 2020
    LadyG said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    A very fine header cyclefree. I didn't manage to read it yesterday.

    I heard on radio yesterday that negotiating deals is what the EU excels at. Apparently there is nowhere in the world better.

    Something else we will lose in this quest for the chimera called sovereignty

    The EU is screwed, once we are properly out and seen to be doing ok, others will want to free themsemves from the EU yoke. I voted remain, but the EU "negotiation" is not about the deal, ,its about protecting the EU institution.
    You are one of many Remainers who post on PB and have subsequently enthusiastically bought into Brexit.

    The opinion polls must be wrong.
    I havent bought into brexit at all. I still think we are better off overall in, for all the EU's sins. However i loathe the likes or Barnier.
    It just gets stranger. Barnier is one of the two politicians I would love to be on our side. The other is Van Dur Luyden. Not just for their political skills-though they're very impressive- but for their articulacy and elegance. Our side look leaden next to them.
    You misspelled van Der liyyyen’s name, badly, and you seem unaware that she was a notoriously unpopular and incompetent German defence minister. That’s why she was shuffled off to Brussels. Apart from that, good post
    I did it phonetically so not a bad shot! Should be VAN DER LEYEN
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,601
    IanB2 said:

    On the vaccine - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55295702

    - So far, only hospital based vaccinations
    - GP vaccinations start this week. 100 practices to start with, growing to 1200
    - They seem to be taking the approach of targeting the over 80s, with a list of health workers to take up any "spare" vaccinations. I presume due to the shelf life after de-frosting.

    We're getting our medical supplies across from North Island by drone, now:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stT86QcYsdw

    So we'll be watching it for our first shipment of vaccine..
    The Isles of Scilly jut ran an inaugural drone flight to Cornwall. Tiny cargo - 10 kg - but they hope to get up to 100 kg next.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    LadyG said:

    FF43 said:

    Roger said:

    A very fine header cyclefree. I didn't manage to read it yesterday.

    I heard on radio yesterday that negotiating deals is what the EU excels at. Apparently there is nowhere in the world better.

    Something else we will lose in this quest for the chimera called sovereignty

    The EU is screwed, once we are properly out and seen to be doing ok, others will want to free themsemves from the EU yoke. I voted remain, but the EU "negotiation" is not about the deal, ,its about protecting the EU institution.
    In part it is about protecting the EU institution. All membership organisations need to maximise the value of membership. If you are out you don't get what you get when you are in. I wouldn't assume others will follow us out the door (aka "free themselves from the EU yoke"). Brexit has so far had the opposite effect of making people in the EU appreciate what they have got.
    Bollocks. The trauma of Brexit has made eurosceptic member states worry about the cost and grief of divorce. And rightly: Article 50 is designed to be horrifically painful. That was the explicit intent of the guy who wrote it, a Brit, Lord Kerr. He intended to deter future secessions, as he has admitted, by making departure a nightmare.

    This is very different from making skeptical countries *love the EU even more*. They don’t.
    There has been a positive benefit to being in the EU whilst the UK was making huge contributions that could be showered around as regional aid. Now we have gone - not so much. Much more stick, far less carrot.
    In the medium term the EU, post Brexit, will either evolve into a loose, almost meaningless constellation of states with equal rights - like Eurovision (now including Australia) - or, more likely, it will become a solar system around the sun/euro and the original six members, with different levels of association for more peripheral planets.

    I predict Britain, including Scotland, will remain on the outer rim, equally influenced by rival stars like the USA. Indeed we may end up in an economic anglophone association, like five eyes, further from Brussels than ever. But squarely confronting China, our genuine rival and potential enemy
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,459
    The Times today suggests that Wiltshire could be heading for tier three this week. I checked the rates, 67 per 100,000 in the last 7 days. WTAF? Another innumerate journalist looking at a % increase?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    kamski said:

    Actually I kind of assume that the money raised that's going into his PAC can't be directly used to pay of Trump's debts. But this is Trump we're talking about so who knows...

    Have you seen Irresistible ?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,315
    kinabalu said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:
    It was a hilarious interview. Poor Sharma. Why he didn't simply say his leader had a tick that made him say the first thing that came into his head and 'no' he couldn't explain it is a mystery.
    I'm starting to notice quite a few interviews now where this or that cabinet minister has to try and justify some piece of utter bollocks that Boris Johnson has come out with. They take different tacks, depending who it is, but there's no obvious best way to do it. I sense the more senior ones are more able to hint at their exasperation (with Johnson) than the others. Regardless, I feel sorry for them. I know they weren't forced to become lackies, and I know they're paid well, but still, everyone deserves dignity and these Conservative politicians at the court of "Boris" are being cruelly stripped of theirs.
    No-one’s forcing them to stay in the Cabinet. If they had any self-respect they’d have left long ago instead of coming out with the lying tripe most of them do on a daily basis.
  • LadyG said:

    One of the GREAT benefits of Brexit is that Remoaners will finally have to STFU, because, quite frankly, no one will care. Listening to people like Maugham or Dunt or Alibhai-Brown will be the 21st century equivalent of going to Bedlam to laugh at the loonies. Entertaining in a way, but really quite inhumane and ultimately very dull. Let them rant and wear their tricorn hats and think they are Napoleon. Let them do it unobserved

    In your dreams.... :D
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,459

    On the vaccine - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55295702

    - So far, only hospital based vaccinations
    - GP vaccinations start this week. 100 practices to start with, growing to 1200
    - They seem to be taking the approach of targeting the over 80s, with a list of health workers to take up any "spare" vaccinations. I presume due to the shelf life after de-frosting.

    Yep. Hard to argue this is wrong as over 50 % of deaths have been in the over 80's. I know some want to target superspreaders, but we don't know who they are.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,601
    LadyG said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    A very fine header cyclefree. I didn't manage to read it yesterday.

    I heard on radio yesterday that negotiating deals is what the EU excels at. Apparently there is nowhere in the world better.

    Something else we will lose in this quest for the chimera called sovereignty

    The EU is screwed, once we are properly out and seen to be doing ok, others will want to free themsemves from the EU yoke. I voted remain, but the EU "negotiation" is not about the deal, ,its about protecting the EU institution.
    You are one of many Remainers who post on PB and have subsequently enthusiastically bought into Brexit.

    The opinion polls must be wrong.
    I havent bought into brexit at all. I still think we are better off overall in, for all the EU's sins. However i loathe the likes or Barnier.
    It just gets stranger. Barnier is one of the two politicians I would love to be on our side. The other is Van Dur Luyden. Not just for their political skills-though they're very impressive- but for their articulacy and elegance. Our side look leaden next to them.
    You misspelled van Der liyyyen’s name, badly, and you seem unaware that she was a notoriously unpopular and incompetent German defence minister. That’s why she was shuffled off to Brussels. Apart from that, good post
    One of the downsides of Brexit is that we can no longer send Gavin Williamson to the EU as a Commissioner.....
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,191

    kamski said:

    Biden back out to 1.03 on the day of the Electoral College vote. Current Betfair prices:-

    Biden 1.03
    Democrats 1.02
    Biden PV 1.02
    Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.03
    Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.02
    Trump ECV 210-239 1.03
    Biden ECV 300-329 1.03
    Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.03
    Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.03
    Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 no offers

    AZ Dem 1.02
    GA Dem 1.02
    MI Dem 1.02
    NV Dem 1.02
    PA Dem 1.02
    WI Dem 1.03

    Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.05
    Trump exit date 2021 1.05

    Is there any reason why Trump not leaving before end of term has come in so much? Seem to remember it was 1.11 a few days ago.
    I would have thought the only likely way that Trump leaves before the end of his term would be if he resigns to grant himself a pardon, not sure why that has become significantly less likely. If anything the chance of him winning disappearing (if punters ever believed them) makes it more likely that he WILL leave before the end of his term, or?
    Maybe I'm missing something, but it seems illogical. NB can't see the actual market myself.
    Tick tock. It is the passage of time. If Trump is planning to resign in favour of Pence (and a pardon) then he is running out of time to do so.

    Trump to leave before end of first term:
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.129133401

    Trump exit date:
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.138799270

    Currently the favourites are 1.05 on both.
    (Can't see the markets in Germany.)

    I don't know if i buy that explanation. If he was going to resign for a Pence pardon, I would have thought it would happen as late as possible, so doesn't really explain the collapse from 1.11 to 1.05 in a few days (and previously i don't think it was falling steadily).
    It would make sense if a story had come out that Trump was planning to pardon himself so wouldn't need to resign, but I haven't seen one recently?
  • Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:
    It was a hilarious interview. Poor Sharma. Why he didn't simply say his leader had a tick that made him say the first thing that came into his head and 'no' he couldn't explain it is a mystery.
    I'm starting to notice quite a few interviews now where this or that cabinet minister has to try and justify some piece of utter bollocks that Boris Johnson has come out with. They take different tacks, depending who it is, but there's no obvious best way to do it. I sense the more senior ones are more able to hint at their exasperation (with Johnson) than the others. Regardless, I feel sorry for them. I know they weren't forced to become lackies, and I know they're paid well, but still, everyone deserves dignity and these Conservative politicians at the court of "Boris" are being cruelly stripped of theirs.
    No-one’s forcing them to stay in the Cabinet. If they had any self-respect they’d have left long ago instead of coming out with the lying tripe most of them do on a daily basis.
    Why? It is one of the best and most productive Cabinets of my adult lifetime.

    And far more credible and honest that Teflon Tony's 45 minutes Cabinet.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    IanB2 said:

    On the vaccine - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55295702

    - So far, only hospital based vaccinations
    - GP vaccinations start this week. 100 practices to start with, growing to 1200
    - They seem to be taking the approach of targeting the over 80s, with a list of health workers to take up any "spare" vaccinations. I presume due to the shelf life after de-frosting.

    We're getting our medical supplies across from North Island by drone, now:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stT86QcYsdw

    So we'll be watching it for our first shipment of vaccine..
    The Isles of Scilly jut ran an inaugural drone flight to Cornwall. Tiny cargo - 10 kg - but they hope to get up to 100 kg next.

    I've landed a light aircraft at that airport myself. The runway has a hump in the middle after which it runs sharp downhill to the edge of a cliff. It certainly encourages early braking - let's hope the drone cargo doesn't end up in the sea.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    LadyG said:

    FF43 said:

    Roger said:

    A very fine header cyclefree. I didn't manage to read it yesterday.

    I heard on radio yesterday that negotiating deals is what the EU excels at. Apparently there is nowhere in the world better.

    Something else we will lose in this quest for the chimera called sovereignty

    The EU is screwed, once we are properly out and seen to be doing ok, others will want to free themsemves from the EU yoke. I voted remain, but the EU "negotiation" is not about the deal, ,its about protecting the EU institution.
    In part it is about protecting the EU institution. All membership organisations need to maximise the value of membership. If you are out you don't get what you get when you are in. I wouldn't assume others will follow us out the door (aka "free themselves from the EU yoke"). Brexit has so far had the opposite effect of making people in the EU appreciate what they have got.
    Bollocks. The trauma of Brexit has made eurosceptic member states worry about the cost and grief of divorce. And rightly: Article 50 is designed to be horrifically painful. That was the explicit intent of the guy who wrote it, a Brit, Lord Kerr. He intended to deter future secessions, as he has admitted, by making departure a nightmare.

    This is very different from making skeptical countries *love the EU even more*. They don’t.
    Prove it
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    LadyG said:



    I predict Britain, including Scotland, will remain on the outer rim, equally influenced by rival stars like the USA. Indeed we may end up in an economic anglophone association, like five eyes, further from Brussels than ever. But squarely confronting China, our genuine rival and potential enemy

    I don't think the UK will ever be allowed anywhere near the security and defence alliance the US are building to contain and confront China. (QSD).
  • Scott_xP said:
    Prepare for WTO terms stupid Dunt.

    Been told that for months. 🤦🏻‍♂️
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    LadyG said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    A very fine header cyclefree. I didn't manage to read it yesterday.

    I heard on radio yesterday that negotiating deals is what the EU excels at. Apparently there is nowhere in the world better.

    Something else we will lose in this quest for the chimera called sovereignty

    The EU is screwed, once we are properly out and seen to be doing ok, others will want to free themsemves from the EU yoke. I voted remain, but the EU "negotiation" is not about the deal, ,its about protecting the EU institution.
    You are one of many Remainers who post on PB and have subsequently enthusiastically bought into Brexit.

    The opinion polls must be wrong.
    I havent bought into brexit at all. I still think we are better off overall in, for all the EU's sins. However i loathe the likes or Barnier.
    It just gets stranger. Barnier is one of the two politicians I would love to be on our side. The other is Van Dur Luyden. Not just for their political skills-though they're very impressive- but for their articulacy and elegance. Our side look leaden next to them.
    You misspelled van Der liyyyen’s name, badly, and you seem unaware that she was a notoriously unpopular and incompetent German defence minister. That’s why she was shuffled off to Brussels. Apart from that, good post
    LadyG said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    A very fine header cyclefree. I didn't manage to read it yesterday.

    I heard on radio yesterday that negotiating deals is what the EU excels at. Apparently there is nowhere in the world better.

    Something else we will lose in this quest for the chimera called sovereignty

    The EU is screwed, once we are properly out and seen to be doing ok, others will want to free themsemves from the EU yoke. I voted remain, but the EU "negotiation" is not about the deal, ,its about protecting the EU institution.
    You are one of many Remainers who post on PB and have subsequently enthusiastically bought into Brexit.

    The opinion polls must be wrong.
    I havent bought into brexit at all. I still think we are better off overall in, for all the EU's sins. However i loathe the likes or Barnier.
    It just gets stranger. Barnier is one of the two politicians I would love to be on our side. The other is Van Dur Luyden. Not just for their political skills-though they're very impressive- but for their articulacy and elegance. Our side look leaden next to them.
    You misspelled van Der liyyyen’s name, badly, and you seem unaware that she was a notoriously unpopular and incompetent German defence minister. That’s why she was shuffled off to Brussels. Apart from that, good post
    Yes - her achievement as Defence minister were staggering. And not in a good way.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Obama reading his memoir of becoming Pres, on R4 now
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,244
    moonshine said:

    On the vaccine - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55295702

    - So far, only hospital based vaccinations
    - GP vaccinations start this week. 100 practices to start with, growing to 1200
    - They seem to be taking the approach of targeting the over 80s, with a list of health workers to take up any "spare" vaccinations. I presume due to the shelf life after de-frosting.

    My parents’ (large) GP practice in a big commuter town has sent an email to all patients, saying that no one registered there will receive the Pfizer vaccine and will instead receive the AZN vaccine. So stop calling us.

    Seems an odd bit of messaging given AZN still has no approval!
    I wonder if that is cost related, or how it was decided? Is not AZN about 10-20% of the price?

    Surely funding is central or area based?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    A very fine header cyclefree. I didn't manage to read it yesterday.

    I heard on radio yesterday that negotiating deals is what the EU excels at. Apparently there is nowhere in the world better.

    Something else we will lose in this quest for the chimera called sovereignty

    The EU is screwed, once we are properly out and seen to be doing ok, others will want to free themsemves from the EU yoke. I voted remain, but the EU "negotiation" is not about the deal, ,its about protecting the EU institution.
    You are one of many Remainers who post on PB and have subsequently enthusiastically bought into Brexit.

    The opinion polls must be wrong.
    I havent bought into brexit at all. I still think we are better off overall in, for all the EU's sins. However i loathe the likes or Barnier.
    It just gets stranger. Barnier is one of the two politicians I would love to be on our side. The other is Van Dur Luyden. Not just for their political skills-though they're very impressive- but for their articulacy and elegance. Our side look leaden next to them.
    Roger, we Brits are a lumpen people. We are on the cold, wet fringes of NW Europe. Our bodies put on fat against the winter. We just don't look good against people who have an agreeable climate and diet.

    And their haute couture just doesn't fit our lumpen body politic.
    I wondered that as I was writing and dismissed it thinking that even if correct it was an unacceptable opinion for this forum. I was even going to use the word 'Lumpen' but my dictionary says it doesn't exist. (If it doesn't it should)
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,244
    edited December 2020

    The Times today suggests that Wiltshire could be heading for tier three this week. I checked the rates, 67 per 100,000 in the last 7 days. WTAF? Another innumerate journalist looking at a % increase?

    I think that would be consistent with a second wave which has rolled through the country far more slowly. In my part of the Midlands we have been coming back down slowly for a several of weeks now, and are back below national average (last time I looked).
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,191
    edited December 2020
    Roger said:

    LadyG said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    A very fine header cyclefree. I didn't manage to read it yesterday.

    I heard on radio yesterday that negotiating deals is what the EU excels at. Apparently there is nowhere in the world better.

    Something else we will lose in this quest for the chimera called sovereignty

    The EU is screwed, once we are properly out and seen to be doing ok, others will want to free themsemves from the EU yoke. I voted remain, but the EU "negotiation" is not about the deal, ,its about protecting the EU institution.
    You are one of many Remainers who post on PB and have subsequently enthusiastically bought into Brexit.

    The opinion polls must be wrong.
    I havent bought into brexit at all. I still think we are better off overall in, for all the EU's sins. However i loathe the likes or Barnier.
    It just gets stranger. Barnier is one of the two politicians I would love to be on our side. The other is Van Dur Luyden. Not just for their political skills-though they're very impressive- but for their articulacy and elegance. Our side look leaden next to them.
    You misspelled van Der liyyyen’s name, badly, and you seem unaware that she was a notoriously unpopular and incompetent German defence minister. That’s why she was shuffled off to Brussels. Apart from that, good post
    I did it phonetically so not a bad shot! Should be VAN DER LEYEN
    is this a different person to von der Leyen?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    TimT said:

    nico679 said:

    DavidL said:

    I don’t think that I agree with @Cyclefree’s analysis. This is not just a power play.

    Both sides want a deal or, perhaps more accurately, neither side wants the blame for failing to have a deal. The UK probably wants a deal more because it has a bigger impact on it. So the EU has the power, right?

    Not necessarily. In my experience a party that is willing to gamble more, to take the bigger risk, often gets what it wants. Their position may be irrational but if they hold in there sometimes the other side’s desire for a deal means agreement is reached on terms closer to what the reckless party wants than you would expect.

    The UK is being reckless here. They are giving the impression of being genuinely willing to risk no deal. That may be what they end up with. But it’s not a sure thing, whatever the objective measure of their respective strengths are.

    Interesting point . I think there’s two ways to look at this .The UK has both a weak and strong hand which might seem strange at the same time .

    The weak part is the EU has the much bigger market and no deal is likely to harm the UK more , the strong part is Johnson is now viewed as willing to burn the whole house down . The EU might be wondering that he might just be crazy enough to go for no deal . I personally think the sovereignty argument is a pile of tosh as all trade agreements mean you give some of that up especially with a big market but he can always revert to that and will have a mostly willing press to argue for him . Personally I don’t see any downsides to him getting a deal . He has an 80 seat majority , the ERG don’t have enough votes to cause him problems . Even if they hate the deal and say they put the letters in , he’d comfortably win that vote . The next election is years away , the public are unlikely to be voting on Brexit if he gets a deal but could well do if he doesn’t and the economy suffers. Interestingly any deal will go to a vote , legally this doesn’t need to happen but I suspect it’s only being done to put Labour in a difficult position .
    Indeed, DavidL.

    The time honored way to win at Chicken may appear irrational, but is highly rational. You signal your absolute determination to win by throwing your steering wheel out of the window (while the other driver is watching so he/she knows what you have done). The other driver then knows that he/she cannot win - the 'best' they can achieve is a head-on collision, so the only rational option left at that point is for that other driver to steer away and lose.

    Will is about the most important thing in negotiations - look at Putin.
    But it would be a head-on collision between a medium-sized van and a largeish but lighter milk-float. The EU and Britain are not equal in economic size, and this is why Johnson's technique hasn't worked so far.
    Economic size is not particularly relevant. It means, at the most, that the UK might suffer a more substantial shock but if we are willing to run that risk the EU have to decide whether they are willing to pay their share of the cost to teach us a lesson.

    A no deal Brexit means the loss of tens of thousands of EU jobs. The impact is more diffuse although Eire and the fishing communities of France would be particularly badly affected. It also means the loss of tens of thousands of UK jobs as well as our trade re-orientates. In an economy with over 31m employed this is not the end of the world but it is far from optimal and it should be avoided if it can be. The same applies to the EU. Both parties have to decide if not having a deal is worth the cost.
    I can't agree here at all. Economic size, or more accurately dispersal, is certainly relevant, because throughout the bloc the shock will be distributed in a vey different way. I'm afraid I must say that to me this reads a lot like a more educated incarnation of the illusions that have led us up to this point.
    COVID is quite instructive. It has been catastrophic for some people, but most people are unaffected and spending money like it’s going out of fashion. I think the same would happen with no deal brexit.
    People are spending the money they saved by not being allowed to take a holiday or go down the pub. The Times (£££) tells us this amounts to £7,000 for the average household.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/lockdown-savings-give-households-a-7-000-christmas-present-hnl0vbfv9 (£££)
    In London, the domestic building trade is running at capacity - everyone who can is extending/digging.
    Here's hoping the tunnels don't come up short of the woods
    Ha. The recent collapse (due to insane stupidity) has nearly killed the basement digging business. Insurance has gone through the roof.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398

    Scott_xP said:
    Prepare for WTO terms stupid Dunt.

    Been told that for months. 🤦🏻‍♂️
    The killer items are paperwork and tariffs.

    And the department of Trade can't tell me what paperwork we need to fill in (so I can't create systems to collect the data) and we don't know how much the tariffs will be - but if it's food exports we aren't exporting anything to the EU.
  • Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:
    It was a hilarious interview. Poor Sharma. Why he didn't simply say his leader had a tick that made him say the first thing that came into his head and 'no' he couldn't explain it is a mystery.
    I'm starting to notice quite a few interviews now where this or that cabinet minister has to try and justify some piece of utter bollocks that Boris Johnson has come out with. They take different tacks, depending who it is, but there's no obvious best way to do it. I sense the more senior ones are more able to hint at their exasperation (with Johnson) than the others. Regardless, I feel sorry for them. I know they weren't forced to become lackies, and I know they're paid well, but still, everyone deserves dignity and these Conservative politicians at the court of "Boris" are being cruelly stripped of theirs.
    No-one’s forcing them to stay in the Cabinet. If they had any self-respect they’d have left long ago instead of coming out with the lying tripe most of them do on a daily basis.
    TBF, a requirement for the top level in British politics in all parties seems to be the ability to do a shameless volte face on the previous policy and then, with a totally straight face, talk about the new policy like you have believed in it all your life.

    I could not do it. I cannot defend an obviously crap policy. Thus my stance on Brexit.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,244

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    TimT said:

    nico679 said:

    DavidL said:

    I don’t think that I agree with @Cyclefree’s analysis. This is not just a power play.

    Both sides want a deal or, perhaps more accurately, neither side wants the blame for failing to have a deal. The UK probably wants a deal more because it has a bigger impact on it. So the EU has the power, right?

    Not necessarily. In my experience a party that is willing to gamble more, to take the bigger risk, often gets what it wants. Their position may be irrational but if they hold in there sometimes the other side’s desire for a deal means agreement is reached on terms closer to what the reckless party wants than you would expect.

    The UK is being reckless here. They are giving the impression of being genuinely willing to risk no deal. That may be what they end up with. But it’s not a sure thing, whatever the objective measure of their respective strengths are.

    Interesting point . I think there’s two ways to look at this .The UK has both a weak and strong hand which might seem strange at the same time .

    The weak part is the EU has the much bigger market and no deal is likely to harm the UK more , the strong part is Johnson is now viewed as willing to burn the whole house down . The EU might be wondering that he might just be crazy enough to go for no deal . I personally think the sovereignty argument is a pile of tosh as all trade agreements mean you give some of that up especially with a big market but he can always revert to that and will have a mostly willing press to argue for him . Personally I don’t see any downsides to him getting a deal . He has an 80 seat majority , the ERG don’t have enough votes to cause him problems . Even if they hate the deal and say they put the letters in , he’d comfortably win that vote . The next election is years away , the public are unlikely to be voting on Brexit if he gets a deal but could well do if he doesn’t and the economy suffers. Interestingly any deal will go to a vote , legally this doesn’t need to happen but I suspect it’s only being done to put Labour in a difficult position .
    Indeed, DavidL.

    The time honored way to win at Chicken may appear irrational, but is highly rational. You signal your absolute determination to win by throwing your steering wheel out of the window (while the other driver is watching so he/she knows what you have done). The other driver then knows that he/she cannot win - the 'best' they can achieve is a head-on collision, so the only rational option left at that point is for that other driver to steer away and lose.

    Will is about the most important thing in negotiations - look at Putin.
    But it would be a head-on collision between a medium-sized van and a largeish but lighter milk-float. The EU and Britain are not equal in economic size, and this is why Johnson's technique hasn't worked so far.
    Economic size is not particularly relevant. It means, at the most, that the UK might suffer a more substantial shock but if we are willing to run that risk the EU have to decide whether they are willing to pay their share of the cost to teach us a lesson.

    A no deal Brexit means the loss of tens of thousands of EU jobs. The impact is more diffuse although Eire and the fishing communities of France would be particularly badly affected. It also means the loss of tens of thousands of UK jobs as well as our trade re-orientates. In an economy with over 31m employed this is not the end of the world but it is far from optimal and it should be avoided if it can be. The same applies to the EU. Both parties have to decide if not having a deal is worth the cost.
    I can't agree here at all. Economic size, or more accurately dispersal, is certainly relevant, because throughout the bloc the shock will be distributed in a vey different way. I'm afraid I must say that to me this reads a lot like a more educated incarnation of the illusions that have led us up to this point.
    COVID is quite instructive. It has been catastrophic for some people, but most people are unaffected and spending money like it’s going out of fashion. I think the same would happen with no deal brexit.
    People are spending the money they saved by not being allowed to take a holiday or go down the pub. The Times (£££) tells us this amounts to £7,000 for the average household.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/lockdown-savings-give-households-a-7-000-christmas-present-hnl0vbfv9 (£££)
    In London, the domestic building trade is running at capacity - everyone who can is extending/digging.
    Here's hoping the tunnels don't come up short of the woods
    Ha. The recent collapse (due to insane stupidity) has nearly killed the basement digging business. Insurance has gone through the roof.
    So, a good time to get a basement dug properly :smile:
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    kamski said:

    Roger said:

    LadyG said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    A very fine header cyclefree. I didn't manage to read it yesterday.

    I heard on radio yesterday that negotiating deals is what the EU excels at. Apparently there is nowhere in the world better.

    Something else we will lose in this quest for the chimera called sovereignty

    The EU is screwed, once we are properly out and seen to be doing ok, others will want to free themsemves from the EU yoke. I voted remain, but the EU "negotiation" is not about the deal, ,its about protecting the EU institution.
    You are one of many Remainers who post on PB and have subsequently enthusiastically bought into Brexit.

    The opinion polls must be wrong.
    I havent bought into brexit at all. I still think we are better off overall in, for all the EU's sins. However i loathe the likes or Barnier.
    It just gets stranger. Barnier is one of the two politicians I would love to be on our side. The other is Van Dur Luyden. Not just for their political skills-though they're very impressive- but for their articulacy and elegance. Our side look leaden next to them.
    You misspelled van Der liyyyen’s name, badly, and you seem unaware that she was a notoriously unpopular and incompetent German defence minister. That’s why she was shuffled off to Brussels. Apart from that, good post
    I did it phonetically so not a bad shot! Should be VAN DER LEYEN
    is this a different person to von der Leyen?
    Dutch cousin?
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    kamski said:

    Biden back out to 1.03 on the day of the Electoral College vote. Current Betfair prices:-

    Biden 1.03
    Democrats 1.02
    Biden PV 1.02
    Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.03
    Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.02
    Trump ECV 210-239 1.03
    Biden ECV 300-329 1.03
    Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.03
    Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.03
    Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 no offers

    AZ Dem 1.02
    GA Dem 1.02
    MI Dem 1.02
    NV Dem 1.02
    PA Dem 1.02
    WI Dem 1.03

    Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.05
    Trump exit date 2021 1.05

    Is there any reason why Trump not leaving before end of term has come in so much? Seem to remember it was 1.11 a few days ago.
    I would have thought the only likely way that Trump leaves before the end of his term would be if he resigns to grant himself a pardon, not sure why that has become significantly less likely. If anything the chance of him winning disappearing (if punters ever believed them) makes it more likely that he WILL leave before the end of his term, or?
    Maybe I'm missing something, but it seems illogical. NB can't see the actual market myself.
    Tick tock. It is the passage of time. If Trump is planning to resign in favour of Pence (and a pardon) then he is running out of time to do so.

    Trump to leave before end of first term:
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.129133401

    Trump exit date:
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.138799270

    Currently the favourites are 1.05 on both.
    I had a thought the other day. Trump doesn't need to resign.

    He uses the Temporary-25th-For-Medical thing - say, has a general for dental work. This means that Pence is acting President for some hours. Pence can issue a pardon. Trump wakes up as President again....

    This has the advantage of looking normal (well, to Trump). And not quitting as president - which would mean being a Loser to Trump.

    The quid pro quo would be a catch all pardon for Pence. *After* he does the above....
    Has Pence done anything he needs a pardon for? In fact, has he done anything at all?
  • On the vaccine - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55295702

    - So far, only hospital based vaccinations
    - GP vaccinations start this week. 100 practices to start with, growing to 1200
    - They seem to be taking the approach of targeting the over 80s, with a list of health workers to take up any "spare" vaccinations. I presume due to the shelf life after de-frosting.

    Yep. Hard to argue this is wrong as over 50 % of deaths have been in the over 80's. I know some want to target superspreaders, but we don't know who they are.
    Are the test and trace people even looking for superspreaders? This is the complaint they are tracing forward (who the positive person subsequently met) rather than backwards to where they might have picked it up. They might have changed.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    The Times today suggests that Wiltshire could be heading for tier three this week. I checked the rates, 67 per 100,000 in the last 7 days. WTAF? Another innumerate journalist looking at a % increase?

    Areas both E and SW of Swindon are in blue on the interactive map; Swindon itself in dark blue, as is the area with the army camps around Larkhill
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    kamski said:



    is this a different person to von der Leyen?

    She was born and brought up in Ixelles in the Brussels Hoofdstedelijk Gewest so a hint of Vlaams might not be entirely inappropriate.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751
    Scott_xP said:
    Do these morons not realise that by posting this sort of thing, they perversely make it less likely a deal will be agreed by making the Commission think they don’t need to compromise?

    Never heard of this guy but he needs to be sent out to grass.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Dura_Ace said:

    LadyG said:



    I predict Britain, including Scotland, will remain on the outer rim, equally influenced by rival stars like the USA. Indeed we may end up in an economic anglophone association, like five eyes, further from Brussels than ever. But squarely confronting China, our genuine rival and potential enemy

    I don't think the UK will ever be allowed anywhere near the security and defence alliance the US are building to contain and confront China. (QSD).
    One just to file alongside his other predictions.
  • Scott_xP said:
    Prepare for WTO terms stupid Dunt.

    Been told that for months. 🤦🏻‍♂️
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Prepare for WTO terms stupid Dunt.

    Been told that for months. 🤦🏻‍♂️
    The killer items are paperwork and tariffs.

    And the department of Trade can't tell me what paperwork we need to fill in (so I can't create systems to collect the data) and we don't know how much the tariffs will be - but if it's food exports we aren't exporting anything to the EU.
    So if you're making the decision not to export food to the EU then I'm going to guess there won't be much food paperwork to fill in? And you'd presumably be wanting to find alternative customers instead?

    So in the knowledge that you've been officially advised to prepare for WTO terms then what more information are you lacking?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364

    kamski said:

    Biden back out to 1.03 on the day of the Electoral College vote. Current Betfair prices:-

    Biden 1.03
    Democrats 1.02
    Biden PV 1.02
    Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.03
    Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.02
    Trump ECV 210-239 1.03
    Biden ECV 300-329 1.03
    Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.03
    Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.03
    Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 no offers

    AZ Dem 1.02
    GA Dem 1.02
    MI Dem 1.02
    NV Dem 1.02
    PA Dem 1.02
    WI Dem 1.03

    Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.05
    Trump exit date 2021 1.05

    Is there any reason why Trump not leaving before end of term has come in so much? Seem to remember it was 1.11 a few days ago.
    I would have thought the only likely way that Trump leaves before the end of his term would be if he resigns to grant himself a pardon, not sure why that has become significantly less likely. If anything the chance of him winning disappearing (if punters ever believed them) makes it more likely that he WILL leave before the end of his term, or?
    Maybe I'm missing something, but it seems illogical. NB can't see the actual market myself.
    Tick tock. It is the passage of time. If Trump is planning to resign in favour of Pence (and a pardon) then he is running out of time to do so.

    Trump to leave before end of first term:
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.129133401

    Trump exit date:
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.138799270

    Currently the favourites are 1.05 on both.
    I had a thought the other day. Trump doesn't need to resign.

    He uses the Temporary-25th-For-Medical thing - say, has a general for dental work. This means that Pence is acting President for some hours. Pence can issue a pardon. Trump wakes up as President again....

    This has the advantage of looking normal (well, to Trump). And not quitting as president - which would mean being a Loser to Trump.

    The quid pro quo would be a catch all pardon for Pence. *After* he does the above....
    Has Pence done anything he needs a pardon for? In fact, has he done anything at all?
    Being *in the room* for some of Trumps behaviour would put you in legal jeopardy, probably.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,601
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    A very fine header cyclefree. I didn't manage to read it yesterday.

    I heard on radio yesterday that negotiating deals is what the EU excels at. Apparently there is nowhere in the world better.

    Something else we will lose in this quest for the chimera called sovereignty

    The EU is screwed, once we are properly out and seen to be doing ok, others will want to free themsemves from the EU yoke. I voted remain, but the EU "negotiation" is not about the deal, ,its about protecting the EU institution.
    You are one of many Remainers who post on PB and have subsequently enthusiastically bought into Brexit.

    The opinion polls must be wrong.
    I havent bought into brexit at all. I still think we are better off overall in, for all the EU's sins. However i loathe the likes or Barnier.
    It just gets stranger. Barnier is one of the two politicians I would love to be on our side. The other is Van Dur Luyden. Not just for their political skills-though they're very impressive- but for their articulacy and elegance. Our side look leaden next to them.
    Roger, we Brits are a lumpen people. We are on the cold, wet fringes of NW Europe. Our bodies put on fat against the winter. We just don't look good against people who have an agreeable climate and diet.

    And their haute couture just doesn't fit our lumpen body politic.
    I wondered that as I was writing and dismissed it thinking that even if correct it was an unacceptable opinion for this forum. I was even going to use the word 'Lumpen' but my dictionary says it doesn't exist. (If it doesn't it should)
    Google DIctionary:

    lumpen
    /ˈlʌmpən/
    adjective
    1.
    (in Marxist contexts) uninterested in revolutionary advancement.
    "the lumpen public is enveloped in a culture of dependency"
    2.
    BRITISH
    lumpy and misshapen; ugly and ponderous.
    "her own body was lumpen and awkward"
    noun
    the lumpenproletariat.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited December 2020
    LadyG said:

    FF43 said:

    Roger said:

    A very fine header cyclefree. I didn't manage to read it yesterday.

    I heard on radio yesterday that negotiating deals is what the EU excels at. Apparently there is nowhere in the world better.

    Something else we will lose in this quest for the chimera called sovereignty

    The EU is screwed, once we are properly out and seen to be doing ok, others will want to free themsemves from the EU yoke. I voted remain, but the EU "negotiation" is not about the deal, ,its about protecting the EU institution.
    In part it is about protecting the EU institution. All membership organisations need to maximise the value of membership. If you are out you don't get what you get when you are in. I wouldn't assume others will follow us out the door (aka "free themselves from the EU yoke"). Brexit has so far had the opposite effect of making people in the EU appreciate what they have got.
    Bollocks. The trauma of Brexit has made eurosceptic member states worry about the cost and grief of divorce. And rightly: Article 50 is designed to be horrifically painful. That was the explicit intent of the guy who wrote it, a Brit, Lord Kerr. He intended to deter future secessions, as he has admitted, by making departure a nightmare.

    This is very different from making skeptical countries *love the EU even more*. They don’t.
    Lord Kerr sets out his reasons for Article 50 here . They aren't at all as you claim. Basically if any country was stupid enough to want to leave the EU, Article 50 provided a less chaotic way of going about it than the alternative.
  • Let's replace Tory for Labour and pretend Labour was about to leave the EU on WTO terms.

    Now we all know what the reaction would be.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    TimT said:

    nico679 said:

    DavidL said:

    I don’t think that I agree with @Cyclefree’s analysis. This is not just a power play.

    Both sides want a deal or, perhaps more accurately, neither side wants the blame for failing to have a deal. The UK probably wants a deal more because it has a bigger impact on it. So the EU has the power, right?

    Not necessarily. In my experience a party that is willing to gamble more, to take the bigger risk, often gets what it wants. Their position may be irrational but if they hold in there sometimes the other side’s desire for a deal means agreement is reached on terms closer to what the reckless party wants than you would expect.

    The UK is being reckless here. They are giving the impression of being genuinely willing to risk no deal. That may be what they end up with. But it’s not a sure thing, whatever the objective measure of their respective strengths are.

    Interesting point . I think there’s two ways to look at this .The UK has both a weak and strong hand which might seem strange at the same time .

    The weak part is the EU has the much bigger market and no deal is likely to harm the UK more , the strong part is Johnson is now viewed as willing to burn the whole house down . The EU might be wondering that he might just be crazy enough to go for no deal . I personally think the sovereignty argument is a pile of tosh as all trade agreements mean you give some of that up especially with a big market but he can always revert to that and will have a mostly willing press to argue for him . Personally I don’t see any downsides to him getting a deal . He has an 80 seat majority , the ERG don’t have enough votes to cause him problems . Even if they hate the deal and say they put the letters in , he’d comfortably win that vote . The next election is years away , the public are unlikely to be voting on Brexit if he gets a deal but could well do if he doesn’t and the economy suffers. Interestingly any deal will go to a vote , legally this doesn’t need to happen but I suspect it’s only being done to put Labour in a difficult position .
    Indeed, DavidL.

    The time honored way to win at Chicken may appear irrational, but is highly rational. You signal your absolute determination to win by throwing your steering wheel out of the window (while the other driver is watching so he/she knows what you have done). The other driver then knows that he/she cannot win - the 'best' they can achieve is a head-on collision, so the only rational option left at that point is for that other driver to steer away and lose.

    Will is about the most important thing in negotiations - look at Putin.
    But it would be a head-on collision between a medium-sized van and a largeish but lighter milk-float. The EU and Britain are not equal in economic size, and this is why Johnson's technique hasn't worked so far.
    But size both doesn't matter and that isn't the relationship between them. People like you make much of the fact the EU is bigger than the UK but don't put much thought beyond that. Size isn't everything and the UK is not some weak, small milk float.

    The EU combined is the world's second largest economy, the UK is the world's sixth largest.

    The relevant size ratio between the EU and the UK is comparable to that between the UK and Saudi Arabia, even with all the oil Saudi Arabia deals with. I wonder how many here would say Saudi Arabia is a milk float relative to the UK?
    Most people would say that Saudi Arabia is further away than Europe. In the gravitational model of international trade, distance (or distance squared) counts as well as size, and Dominic Raab just texted me to say France is just past Dover. He's probably never been to Northern Ireland.
    Well indeed distance matters but that cuts both ways. We are more valuable to them too.

    People make out like the UK is tiny relative to the EU but it's not true. Their economy isn't 27x our own, it is "just" 5x. Or in the inane words of WhisperingOracle it is a mere five milk floats.

    To do a further illustration if the UK was Northern Ireland then the EU wouldn't be England it would be Scotland in relative size.
    Uh, no. The economy of England alone would be the 7th or 8th biggest in the world. Around 2.5 trillion dollars.

    The economy of Scotland is vastly smaller. Twelve times smaller. 200 billion dollars.

    The EU is losing a sixth of its GDP, its equal biggest military, its most important city, its best universities and the home of the English language, and its most influential “soft power”. That’s why they’re so fucked off
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,218
    RIP Le Carre then. Loved his books, read most of them, and also loved hearing him talk. One of those people who's so fluently articulate and yet at the same time very thoughtful (which many gift of the gabbers are not) that you wonder why bother saying anything yourself. Just give up the struggle and let people like him do it.

    Once heard a debate on Islam and the West between him and one of those ultra liberals gone wrong (could have been Christopher Hitchens) and he was so good that he completely changed my mind on the topic. I went into it with a "Religions are an affront to rationality and should be mocked mercilessly" position and emerged with a far more nuanced view.

    Anyway, here he is, JLC, saying something about Brexit that resonates with me and I think with many. "I'm English through and through and my England would be the one that recognises its place in the EU. The jingoistic England that is trying to march us out of the EU, that is an England I don't want to know."

    Last sentence being quite poignant since of course he will not know it.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,191
    Dura_Ace said:

    kamski said:



    is this a different person to von der Leyen?

    She was born and brought up in Ixelles in the Brussels Hoofdstedelijk Gewest so a hint of Vlaams might not be entirely inappropriate.
    Descended from big North American slave owners and slave traders, apparently...
  • LadyG said:

    TimT said:

    nico679 said:

    DavidL said:

    I don’t think that I agree with @Cyclefree’s analysis. This is not just a power play.

    Both sides want a deal or, perhaps more accurately, neither side wants the blame for failing to have a deal. The UK probably wants a deal more because it has a bigger impact on it. So the EU has the power, right?

    Not necessarily. In my experience a party that is willing to gamble more, to take the bigger risk, often gets what it wants. Their position may be irrational but if they hold in there sometimes the other side’s desire for a deal means agreement is reached on terms closer to what the reckless party wants than you would expect.

    The UK is being reckless here. They are giving the impression of being genuinely willing to risk no deal. That may be what they end up with. But it’s not a sure thing, whatever the objective measure of their respective strengths are.

    Interesting point . I think there’s two ways to look at this .The UK has both a weak and strong hand which might seem strange at the same time .

    The weak part is the EU has the much bigger market and no deal is likely to harm the UK more , the strong part is Johnson is now viewed as willing to burn the whole house down . The EU might be wondering that he might just be crazy enough to go for no deal . I personally think the sovereignty argument is a pile of tosh as all trade agreements mean you give some of that up especially with a big market but he can always revert to that and will have a mostly willing press to argue for him . Personally I don’t see any downsides to him getting a deal . He has an 80 seat majority , the ERG don’t have enough votes to cause him problems . Even if they hate the deal and say they put the letters in , he’d comfortably win that vote . The next election is years away , the public are unlikely to be voting on Brexit if he gets a deal but could well do if he doesn’t and the economy suffers. Interestingly any deal will go to a vote , legally this doesn’t need to happen but I suspect it’s only being done to put Labour in a difficult position .
    Indeed, DavidL.

    The time honored way to win at Chicken may appear irrational, but is highly rational. You signal your absolute determination to win by throwing your steering wheel out of the window (while the other driver is watching so he/she knows what you have done). The other driver then knows that he/she cannot win - the 'best' they can achieve is a head-on collision, so the only rational option left at that point is for that other driver to steer away and lose.

    Will is about the most important thing in negotiations - look at Putin.
    But it would be a head-on collision between a medium-sized van and a largeish but lighter milk-float. The EU and Britain are not equal in economic size, and this is why Johnson's technique hasn't worked so far.
    But size both doesn't matter and that isn't the relationship between them. People like you make much of the fact the EU is bigger than the UK but don't put much thought beyond that. Size isn't everything and the UK is not some weak, small milk float.

    The EU combined is the world's second largest economy, the UK is the world's sixth largest.

    The relevant size ratio between the EU and the UK is comparable to that between the UK and Saudi Arabia, even with all the oil Saudi Arabia deals with. I wonder how many here would say Saudi Arabia is a milk float relative to the UK?
    Most people would say that Saudi Arabia is further away than Europe. In the gravitational model of international trade, distance (or distance squared) counts as well as size, and Dominic Raab just texted me to say France is just past Dover. He's probably never been to Northern Ireland.
    Well indeed distance matters but that cuts both ways. We are more valuable to them too.

    People make out like the UK is tiny relative to the EU but it's not true. Their economy isn't 27x our own, it is "just" 5x. Or in the inane words of WhisperingOracle it is a mere five milk floats.

    To do a further illustration if the UK was Northern Ireland then the EU wouldn't be England it would be Scotland in relative size.
    Uh, no. The economy of England alone would be the 7th or 8th biggest in the world. Around 2.5 trillion dollars.

    The economy of Scotland is vastly smaller. Twelve times smaller. 200 billion dollars.

    The EU is losing a sixth of its GDP, its equal biggest military, its most important city, its best universities and the home of the English language, and its most influential “soft power”. That’s why they’re so fucked off
    Uh, yes, that was my point.

    The UK is one fifth of the size of the EU, like NI is one fifth of the size of Scotland.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751
    MattW said:

    moonshine said:

    On the vaccine - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55295702

    - So far, only hospital based vaccinations
    - GP vaccinations start this week. 100 practices to start with, growing to 1200
    - They seem to be taking the approach of targeting the over 80s, with a list of health workers to take up any "spare" vaccinations. I presume due to the shelf life after de-frosting.

    My parents’ (large) GP practice in a big commuter town has sent an email to all patients, saying that no one registered there will receive the Pfizer vaccine and will instead receive the AZN vaccine. So stop calling us.

    Seems an odd bit of messaging given AZN still has no approval!
    I wonder if that is cost related, or how it was decided? Is not AZN about 10-20% of the price?

    Surely funding is central or area based?
    Are they rationing the scarce early batches by geography? All a bit odd. Very frustrating that there’s not transparent and regular updates of the vaccine rollout, given how many times we’ve had to listen to tedious metaphors about trains and cricket.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    TimT said:

    nico679 said:

    DavidL said:

    I don’t think that I agree with @Cyclefree’s analysis. This is not just a power play.

    Both sides want a deal or, perhaps more accurately, neither side wants the blame for failing to have a deal. The UK probably wants a deal more because it has a bigger impact on it. So the EU has the power, right?

    Not necessarily. In my experience a party that is willing to gamble more, to take the bigger risk, often gets what it wants. Their position may be irrational but if they hold in there sometimes the other side’s desire for a deal means agreement is reached on terms closer to what the reckless party wants than you would expect.

    The UK is being reckless here. They are giving the impression of being genuinely willing to risk no deal. That may be what they end up with. But it’s not a sure thing, whatever the objective measure of their respective strengths are.

    Interesting point . I think there’s two ways to look at this .The UK has both a weak and strong hand which might seem strange at the same time .

    The weak part is the EU has the much bigger market and no deal is likely to harm the UK more , the strong part is Johnson is now viewed as willing to burn the whole house down . The EU might be wondering that he might just be crazy enough to go for no deal . I personally think the sovereignty argument is a pile of tosh as all trade agreements mean you give some of that up especially with a big market but he can always revert to that and will have a mostly willing press to argue for him . Personally I don’t see any downsides to him getting a deal . He has an 80 seat majority , the ERG don’t have enough votes to cause him problems . Even if they hate the deal and say they put the letters in , he’d comfortably win that vote . The next election is years away , the public are unlikely to be voting on Brexit if he gets a deal but could well do if he doesn’t and the economy suffers. Interestingly any deal will go to a vote , legally this doesn’t need to happen but I suspect it’s only being done to put Labour in a difficult position .
    Indeed, DavidL.

    The time honored way to win at Chicken may appear irrational, but is highly rational. You signal your absolute determination to win by throwing your steering wheel out of the window (while the other driver is watching so he/she knows what you have done). The other driver then knows that he/she cannot win - the 'best' they can achieve is a head-on collision, so the only rational option left at that point is for that other driver to steer away and lose.

    Will is about the most important thing in negotiations - look at Putin.
    But it would be a head-on collision between a medium-sized van and a largeish but lighter milk-float. The EU and Britain are not equal in economic size, and this is why Johnson's technique hasn't worked so far.
    Economic size is not particularly relevant. It means, at the most, that the UK might suffer a more substantial shock but if we are willing to run that risk the EU have to decide whether they are willing to pay their share of the cost to teach us a lesson.

    A no deal Brexit means the loss of tens of thousands of EU jobs. The impact is more diffuse although Eire and the fishing communities of France would be particularly badly affected. It also means the loss of tens of thousands of UK jobs as well as our trade re-orientates. In an economy with over 31m employed this is not the end of the world but it is far from optimal and it should be avoided if it can be. The same applies to the EU. Both parties have to decide if not having a deal is worth the cost.
    I can't agree here at all. Economic size, or more accurately dispersal, is certainly relevant, because throughout the bloc the shock will be distributed in a vey different way. I'm afraid I must say that to me this reads a lot like a more educated incarnation of the illusions that have led us up to this point.
    COVID is quite instructive. It has been catastrophic for some people, but most people are unaffected and spending money like it’s going out of fashion. I think the same would happen with no deal brexit.
    People are spending the money they saved by not being allowed to take a holiday or go down the pub. The Times (£££) tells us this amounts to £7,000 for the average household.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/lockdown-savings-give-households-a-7-000-christmas-present-hnl0vbfv9 (£££)
    In London, the domestic building trade is running at capacity - everyone who can is extending/digging.
    Here's hoping the tunnels don't come up short of the woods
    Ha. The recent collapse (due to insane stupidity) has nearly killed the basement digging business. Insurance has gone through the roof.
    So, a good time to get a basement dug properly :smile:
    Well, the cowboys have no insurance, or insurance that only insures against Donald Trump appearing in your basement or something.

    The people with real insurance, and real skills are simply raising the price to match.

    The ironic bit is that for the small number of accidents involving basement digging, it has always turned out that the insurance was non-existent or inadequate.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,601
    LadyG said:

    TimT said:

    nico679 said:

    DavidL said:

    I don’t think that I agree with @Cyclefree’s analysis. This is not just a power play.

    Both sides want a deal or, perhaps more accurately, neither side wants the blame for failing to have a deal. The UK probably wants a deal more because it has a bigger impact on it. So the EU has the power, right?

    Not necessarily. In my experience a party that is willing to gamble more, to take the bigger risk, often gets what it wants. Their position may be irrational but if they hold in there sometimes the other side’s desire for a deal means agreement is reached on terms closer to what the reckless party wants than you would expect.

    The UK is being reckless here. They are giving the impression of being genuinely willing to risk no deal. That may be what they end up with. But it’s not a sure thing, whatever the objective measure of their respective strengths are.

    Interesting point . I think there’s two ways to look at this .The UK has both a weak and strong hand which might seem strange at the same time .

    The weak part is the EU has the much bigger market and no deal is likely to harm the UK more , the strong part is Johnson is now viewed as willing to burn the whole house down . The EU might be wondering that he might just be crazy enough to go for no deal . I personally think the sovereignty argument is a pile of tosh as all trade agreements mean you give some of that up especially with a big market but he can always revert to that and will have a mostly willing press to argue for him . Personally I don’t see any downsides to him getting a deal . He has an 80 seat majority , the ERG don’t have enough votes to cause him problems . Even if they hate the deal and say they put the letters in , he’d comfortably win that vote . The next election is years away , the public are unlikely to be voting on Brexit if he gets a deal but could well do if he doesn’t and the economy suffers. Interestingly any deal will go to a vote , legally this doesn’t need to happen but I suspect it’s only being done to put Labour in a difficult position .
    Indeed, DavidL.

    The time honored way to win at Chicken may appear irrational, but is highly rational. You signal your absolute determination to win by throwing your steering wheel out of the window (while the other driver is watching so he/she knows what you have done). The other driver then knows that he/she cannot win - the 'best' they can achieve is a head-on collision, so the only rational option left at that point is for that other driver to steer away and lose.

    Will is about the most important thing in negotiations - look at Putin.
    But it would be a head-on collision between a medium-sized van and a largeish but lighter milk-float. The EU and Britain are not equal in economic size, and this is why Johnson's technique hasn't worked so far.
    But size both doesn't matter and that isn't the relationship between them. People like you make much of the fact the EU is bigger than the UK but don't put much thought beyond that. Size isn't everything and the UK is not some weak, small milk float.

    The EU combined is the world's second largest economy, the UK is the world's sixth largest.

    The relevant size ratio between the EU and the UK is comparable to that between the UK and Saudi Arabia, even with all the oil Saudi Arabia deals with. I wonder how many here would say Saudi Arabia is a milk float relative to the UK?
    Most people would say that Saudi Arabia is further away than Europe. In the gravitational model of international trade, distance (or distance squared) counts as well as size, and Dominic Raab just texted me to say France is just past Dover. He's probably never been to Northern Ireland.
    Well indeed distance matters but that cuts both ways. We are more valuable to them too.

    People make out like the UK is tiny relative to the EU but it's not true. Their economy isn't 27x our own, it is "just" 5x. Or in the inane words of WhisperingOracle it is a mere five milk floats.

    To do a further illustration if the UK was Northern Ireland then the EU wouldn't be England it would be Scotland in relative size.
    Uh, no. The economy of England alone would be the 7th or 8th biggest in the world. Around 2.5 trillion dollars.

    The economy of Scotland is vastly smaller. Twelve times smaller. 200 billion dollars.

    The EU is losing a sixth of its GDP, its equal biggest military, its most important city, its best universities and the home of the English language, and its most influential “soft power”. That’s why they’re so fucked off
    And all they had to do was give Cameron a deal he could sell as meaningful. They are right to be fucked off. They brought it on themselves.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    LadyG said:

    That’s why they’re so fucked off

    They seem considerably more relaxed than you

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1338129933202300930
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,459
    IanB2 said:

    The Times today suggests that Wiltshire could be heading for tier three this week. I checked the rates, 67 per 100,000 in the last 7 days. WTAF? Another innumerate journalist looking at a % increase?

    Areas both E and SW of Swindon are in blue on the interactive map; Swindon itself in dark blue, as is the area with the army camps around Larkhill
    Where I am is white. The county as a whole is at 67 cases per 100,000. If you use the area as a whole for simplicity, then the rate is one of the lowest in the country (bottom 10%). If you are going to look as MSOA then where I am should in tier 1. Can't have it both ways.
  • moonshine said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Do these morons not realise that by posting this sort of thing, they perversely make it less likely a deal will be agreed by making the Commission think they don’t need to compromise?

    Never heard of this guy but he needs to be sent out to grass.
    Idiots like Gale should have left the party when Clarke, Hammond and Grieve were expelled. Being prepared to leave on WTO terms was literally a confidence issue over a year ago and we are far better prepared now than we were then.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,095
    edited December 2020
    Oh FFS... another British comoany bought by a total shit of a US one. Its worse than nVidia buying ARM.

    BBC News - EA to buy Dirt-Rally-maker Codemasters for £1bn
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-55300362

    EA buying your studio is equivalent of Microsoft buying your software development house. It will be gutted and shuttered within 5 years.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:
    It was a hilarious interview. Poor Sharma. Why he didn't simply say his leader had a tick that made him say the first thing that came into his head and 'no' he couldn't explain it is a mystery.
    I'm starting to notice quite a few interviews now where this or that cabinet minister has to try and justify some piece of utter bollocks that Boris Johnson has come out with. They take different tacks, depending who it is, but there's no obvious best way to do it. I sense the more senior ones are more able to hint at their exasperation (with Johnson) than the others. Regardless, I feel sorry for them. I know they weren't forced to become lackies, and I know they're paid well, but still, everyone deserves dignity and these Conservative politicians at the court of "Boris" are being cruelly stripped of theirs.
    No-one’s forcing them to stay in the Cabinet. If they had any self-respect they’d have left long ago instead of coming out with the lying tripe most of them do on a daily basis.
    Why? It is one of the best and most productive Cabinets of my adult lifetime.

    And far more credible and honest that Teflon Tony's 45 minutes Cabinet.
    Cobblers
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    FF43 said:

    Roger said:

    A very fine header cyclefree. I didn't manage to read it yesterday.

    I heard on radio yesterday that negotiating deals is what the EU excels at. Apparently there is nowhere in the world better.

    Something else we will lose in this quest for the chimera called sovereignty

    The EU is screwed, once we are properly out and seen to be doing ok, others will want to free themsemves from the EU yoke. I voted remain, but the EU "negotiation" is not about the deal, ,its about protecting the EU institution.
    In part it is about protecting the EU institution. All membership organisations need to maximise the value of membership. If you are out you don't get what you get when you are in. I wouldn't assume others will follow us out the door (aka "free themselves from the EU yoke"). Brexit has so far had the opposite effect of making people in the EU appreciate what they have got.
    Bollocks. The trauma of Brexit has made eurosceptic member states worry about the cost and grief of divorce. And rightly: Article 50 is designed to be horrifically painful. That was the explicit intent of the guy who wrote it, a Brit, Lord Kerr. He intended to deter future secessions, as he has admitted, by making departure a nightmare.

    This is very different from making skeptical countries *love the EU even more*. They don’t.
    There has been a positive benefit to being in the EU whilst the UK was making huge contributions that could be showered around as regional aid. Now we have gone - not so much. Much more stick, far less carrot.
    In the medium term the EU, post Brexit, will either evolve into a loose, almost meaningless constellation of states with equal rights - like Eurovision (now including Australia) - or, more likely, it will become a solar system around the sun/euro and the original six members, with different levels of association for more peripheral planets.

    I predict Britain, including Scotland, will remain on the outer rim, equally influenced by rival stars like the USA. Indeed we may end up in an economic anglophone association, like five eyes, further from Brussels than ever. But squarely confronting China, our genuine rival and potential enemy
    Even by the late much lamented SeanT's standards that's bollocks!!
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Scott_xP said:

    LadyG said:

    That’s why they’re so fucked off

    They seem considerably more relaxed than you

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1338129933202300930
    Jeremy Cliffe. A man whose entire career, mindset, ethos and livelihood is justified by UK membership of the EU. Really. Do better. This is like quoting English “cardinals” after the Reformation

    It’s HAPPENED. We’re LEAVING. Grow UP
  • nichomar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:
    It was a hilarious interview. Poor Sharma. Why he didn't simply say his leader had a tick that made him say the first thing that came into his head and 'no' he couldn't explain it is a mystery.
    I'm starting to notice quite a few interviews now where this or that cabinet minister has to try and justify some piece of utter bollocks that Boris Johnson has come out with. They take different tacks, depending who it is, but there's no obvious best way to do it. I sense the more senior ones are more able to hint at their exasperation (with Johnson) than the others. Regardless, I feel sorry for them. I know they weren't forced to become lackies, and I know they're paid well, but still, everyone deserves dignity and these Conservative politicians at the court of "Boris" are being cruelly stripped of theirs.
    No-one’s forcing them to stay in the Cabinet. If they had any self-respect they’d have left long ago instead of coming out with the lying tripe most of them do on a daily basis.
    Why? It is one of the best and most productive Cabinets of my adult lifetime.

    And far more credible and honest that Teflon Tony's 45 minutes Cabinet.
    Cobblers
    At some point we need to be able to distinguish between what is clear and obvious shilling/propaganda for the Tory Party and what is interesting and insightful debate from the right.

    I believe we have reached that point now with some users.
  • Mr. Urquhart, aye... Dragon Age 4 is something I'll keep an eye on but certainly won't preorder. Bioware's fallen off a cliff since being acquired by EA.
  • nichomar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:
    It was a hilarious interview. Poor Sharma. Why he didn't simply say his leader had a tick that made him say the first thing that came into his head and 'no' he couldn't explain it is a mystery.
    I'm starting to notice quite a few interviews now where this or that cabinet minister has to try and justify some piece of utter bollocks that Boris Johnson has come out with. They take different tacks, depending who it is, but there's no obvious best way to do it. I sense the more senior ones are more able to hint at their exasperation (with Johnson) than the others. Regardless, I feel sorry for them. I know they weren't forced to become lackies, and I know they're paid well, but still, everyone deserves dignity and these Conservative politicians at the court of "Boris" are being cruelly stripped of theirs.
    No-one’s forcing them to stay in the Cabinet. If they had any self-respect they’d have left long ago instead of coming out with the lying tripe most of them do on a daily basis.
    Why? It is one of the best and most productive Cabinets of my adult lifetime.

    And far more credible and honest that Teflon Tony's 45 minutes Cabinet.
    Cobblers
    Just because you're not getting what you want?

    Same pathetic squealing as occurred during my childhood in the last meaningful transformative government this nation had under Thatcher.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    LadyG said:

    It’s HAPPENED. We’re LEAVING. Grow UP

    That's the point.

    We are leaving, and while people like you get ever angrier and bitter about your win, the EU has bigger stuff to worry about

    Move on...
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    kamski said:


    On how to leave the EU:
    The only sensible way to do it would have been into the safe arms of a soft Brexit, after which voters would be able to vote go further if they wanted to.
    Unfortunately Conservative MPs kept voting against that option, the shits.

    Soft Brexit is damage limitation and therefore a Remainer concept. We lost -let's make it a bit less shit.

    No Leaver voted to be damaged, therefore there is no damage to be limited and if there is damage it's all the fault of the EU and Remainers. The harder the Brexit the better.

    As Remainers we may not like this, but we lost.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Dura_Ace said:

    LadyG said:



    I predict Britain, including Scotland, will remain on the outer rim, equally influenced by rival stars like the USA. Indeed we may end up in an economic anglophone association, like five eyes, further from Brussels than ever. But squarely confronting China, our genuine rival and potential enemy

    I don't think the UK will ever be allowed anywhere near the security and defence alliance the US are building to contain and confront China. (QSD).
    Yeah, America is going to exclude its most powerful and reliable ally. Right. Yep. Gotcha
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    LadyG said:

    Yeah, America is going to exclude its most powerful and reliable ally.

    Biden doesn't think BoZo is reliable

    Ad he's right

    Nobody thinks BoZo is reliable
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720

    LadyG said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    A very fine header cyclefree. I didn't manage to read it yesterday.

    I heard on radio yesterday that negotiating deals is what the EU excels at. Apparently there is nowhere in the world better.

    Something else we will lose in this quest for the chimera called sovereignty

    The EU is screwed, once we are properly out and seen to be doing ok, others will want to free themsemves from the EU yoke. I voted remain, but the EU "negotiation" is not about the deal, ,its about protecting the EU institution.
    You are one of many Remainers who post on PB and have subsequently enthusiastically bought into Brexit.

    The opinion polls must be wrong.
    I havent bought into brexit at all. I still think we are better off overall in, for all the EU's sins. However i loathe the likes or Barnier.
    It just gets stranger. Barnier is one of the two politicians I would love to be on our side. The other is Van Dur Luyden. Not just for their political skills-though they're very impressive- but for their articulacy and elegance. Our side look leaden next to them.
    You misspelled van Der liyyyen’s name, badly, and you seem unaware that she was a notoriously unpopular and incompetent German defence minister. That’s why she was shuffled off to Brussels. Apart from that, good post
    LadyG said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    A very fine header cyclefree. I didn't manage to read it yesterday.

    I heard on radio yesterday that negotiating deals is what the EU excels at. Apparently there is nowhere in the world better.

    Something else we will lose in this quest for the chimera called sovereignty

    The EU is screwed, once we are properly out and seen to be doing ok, others will want to free themsemves from the EU yoke. I voted remain, but the EU "negotiation" is not about the deal, ,its about protecting the EU institution.
    You are one of many Remainers who post on PB and have subsequently enthusiastically bought into Brexit.

    The opinion polls must be wrong.
    I havent bought into brexit at all. I still think we are better off overall in, for all the EU's sins. However i loathe the likes or Barnier.
    It just gets stranger. Barnier is one of the two politicians I would love to be on our side. The other is Van Dur Luyden. Not just for their political skills-though they're very impressive- but for their articulacy and elegance. Our side look leaden next to them.
    You misspelled van Der liyyyen’s name, badly, and you seem unaware that she was a notoriously unpopular and incompetent German defence minister. That’s why she was shuffled off to Brussels. Apart from that, good post
    Yes - her achievement as Defence minister were staggering. And not in a good way.
    Her Brussels predecessor's achievements were also staggering, not in a good way.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,244
    edited December 2020
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    If we don't get a deal - I wonder if what was offered by either side will be published?
    I could imagine Starmer pursuing this line of questioning. "Why won't the government tell us what the EU offered?"
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    LadyG said:

    TimT said:

    nico679 said:

    DavidL said:

    I don’t think that I agree with @Cyclefree’s analysis. This is not just a power play.

    Both sides want a deal or, perhaps more accurately, neither side wants the blame for failing to have a deal. The UK probably wants a deal more because it has a bigger impact on it. So the EU has the power, right?

    Not necessarily. In my experience a party that is willing to gamble more, to take the bigger risk, often gets what it wants. Their position may be irrational but if they hold in there sometimes the other side’s desire for a deal means agreement is reached on terms closer to what the reckless party wants than you would expect.

    The UK is being reckless here. They are giving the impression of being genuinely willing to risk no deal. That may be what they end up with. But it’s not a sure thing, whatever the objective measure of their respective strengths are.

    Interesting point . I think there’s two ways to look at this .The UK has both a weak and strong hand which might seem strange at the same time .

    The weak part is the EU has the much bigger market and no deal is likely to harm the UK more , the strong part is Johnson is now viewed as willing to burn the whole house down . The EU might be wondering that he might just be crazy enough to go for no deal . I personally think the sovereignty argument is a pile of tosh as all trade agreements mean you give some of that up especially with a big market but he can always revert to that and will have a mostly willing press to argue for him . Personally I don’t see any downsides to him getting a deal . He has an 80 seat majority , the ERG don’t have enough votes to cause him problems . Even if they hate the deal and say they put the letters in , he’d comfortably win that vote . The next election is years away , the public are unlikely to be voting on Brexit if he gets a deal but could well do if he doesn’t and the economy suffers. Interestingly any deal will go to a vote , legally this doesn’t need to happen but I suspect it’s only being done to put Labour in a difficult position .
    Indeed, DavidL.

    The time honored way to win at Chicken may appear irrational, but is highly rational. You signal your absolute determination to win by throwing your steering wheel out of the window (while the other driver is watching so he/she knows what you have done). The other driver then knows that he/she cannot win - the 'best' they can achieve is a head-on collision, so the only rational option left at that point is for that other driver to steer away and lose.

    Will is about the most important thing in negotiations - look at Putin.
    But it would be a head-on collision between a medium-sized van and a largeish but lighter milk-float. The EU and Britain are not equal in economic size, and this is why Johnson's technique hasn't worked so far.
    But size both doesn't matter and that isn't the relationship between them. People like you make much of the fact the EU is bigger than the UK but don't put much thought beyond that. Size isn't everything and the UK is not some weak, small milk float.

    The EU combined is the world's second largest economy, the UK is the world's sixth largest.

    The relevant size ratio between the EU and the UK is comparable to that between the UK and Saudi Arabia, even with all the oil Saudi Arabia deals with. I wonder how many here would say Saudi Arabia is a milk float relative to the UK?
    Most people would say that Saudi Arabia is further away than Europe. In the gravitational model of international trade, distance (or distance squared) counts as well as size, and Dominic Raab just texted me to say France is just past Dover. He's probably never been to Northern Ireland.
    Well indeed distance matters but that cuts both ways. We are more valuable to them too.

    People make out like the UK is tiny relative to the EU but it's not true. Their economy isn't 27x our own, it is "just" 5x. Or in the inane words of WhisperingOracle it is a mere five milk floats.

    To do a further illustration if the UK was Northern Ireland then the EU wouldn't be England it would be Scotland in relative size.
    Uh, no. The economy of England alone would be the 7th or 8th biggest in the world. Around 2.5 trillion dollars.

    The economy of Scotland is vastly smaller. Twelve times smaller. 200 billion dollars.

    The EU is losing a sixth of its GDP, its equal biggest military, its most important city, its best universities and the home of the English language, and its most influential “soft power”. That’s why they’re so fucked off
    Uh, yes, that was my point.

    The UK is one fifth of the size of the EU, like NI is one fifth of the size of Scotland.
    So NI and Scotland are destined to end up in different political entities? You've a double chance of winning that one!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,095
    edited December 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    No matter how long had been scheduled it would have been 90% pissing about, dragged out, red lines, no possibility of any movement on any issue, then 10% negotiating.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,601

    IanB2 said:

    The Times today suggests that Wiltshire could be heading for tier three this week. I checked the rates, 67 per 100,000 in the last 7 days. WTAF? Another innumerate journalist looking at a % increase?

    Areas both E and SW of Swindon are in blue on the interactive map; Swindon itself in dark blue, as is the area with the army camps around Larkhill
    Where I am is white. The county as a whole is at 67 cases per 100,000. If you use the area as a whole for simplicity, then the rate is one of the lowest in the country (bottom 10%). If you are going to look as MSOA then where I am should in tier 1. Can't have it both ways.
    Last time I looked, South Hams was 20 per 100,000. In Tier 2. Cornwall in Tier 1 was 19.

    Still reckon we won't get changed though.
This discussion has been closed.