Categories
Options
Some Definitions – politicalbetting.com
Some Definitions – politicalbetting.com
“Democracy in Europe” by Larry Siedentop, written when the EU was trying to draft a constitution is, despite its age, worth a read. Surprising as it may seem, given the US’s own current democratic difficulties, the outsider’s analysis of what constitutions mean, how they are arrived at, different views of democracy and how these interact with a Continent’s history, culture and religions is acute. It is one which European and British politicians would have done well to consider before embarking on changes which, arguably, led to Brexit and certainly resulted in one of the biggest popular rejections in the Dutch and French votes on the constitution.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
The future is Big Sam.
Yes. It's a negotiation after all. People will disagree on the reasonableness of the cherries to be picked, and the EU is in a strong position to insist on many cherries. The UK crying about unfairness wouldn't really matter even if true. As Mike says 'Powerful entities get more of what they want than less powerful ones'. It's not a matter of one side being more morally correct, high minded or consistent. It's what the sides think they can get out of the other.
Lots more to come from Tottenham, I think. Leicester? I’m not so sure - they have already lost four games - suggesting fragility.
Current Betfair prices:-
Biden 1.02
Democrats 1.02
Biden PV 1.02
Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.03
Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.02
Trump ECV 210-239 1.04
Biden ECV 300-329 1.04
Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.03
Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 no offers
AZ Dem 1.02
GA Dem 1.03
MI Dem 1.02
NV Dem 1.02
PA Dem 1.02
WI Dem 1.02
Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.04
Trump exit date 2021 1.05
https://twitter.com/JonnyGeller/status/1338239733638508547
I would hope Biden and his incoming team will be getting it at the same time.
https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1338232587748315136/photo/2
Which is the limit of my festive spirit towards him.
Let's hope a good many MPs and journalists read it and learn.
If they do 200k a week, would be decent going. And much better for him to underpromise and say hope to get 500k done by Christmas and if they do get a million, he can boast about it.
--AS
PS: not an aggressive question, I'd just like to know. Also I might not reply because I've fallen asleep so thanks in advance!
It might help to explain why we're flailing around sending gunboats.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9049237/Proof-Prince-Andrew-misled-Emily-Maitlis-Duke-DID-stay-Jeffrey-Epsteins-New-York-mansion.html
I bet famously unsweaty Andrew is at least feeling a little warm...
It rules out late swing, shy conservatives, deliberate misleading, and early voting effects, as explanations for the bulk of the error. Its main conclusion is that the likely explanation was unrepresentative and poorly adjusted sampling, and specifically over-representation of more politically engaged and better educated voters, which led to over-stating Labor support. It also suggests (but doesn’t have the evidence to establish) there may have been a degree of herding among the polling companies.
The (long) full report is here:
https://3859gp38qzh51h504x6gvv0o-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/files/2020/12/Report-of-the-Inquiry-into-the-Performance-of-the-Opinion-Polls-at-the-2019-Australian-Federal-Election.pdf
Our GP surgery has plans for a drive through vaccination at a local airfield. They trialled this process for this year's flu vaccine and it was a great success. I am sure most GP surgeries have similar plans ready to roll.
Big night on Wednesday. One or other or both of Spurs or Pool will drop points, so if we can beat Everton...🙂
Only scientist who comes up with weird analogies than us discussing Brexit.
If on the other hand it is a less effective vaccine, you’d want to prioritise the Pfizer for the elderly, which would mean a parallel programme of using the AZ now on younger people. Which isn’t the current plan.
--AS
I think if that is the case then the government will luck into the best strategy as they can run the Pfizer programme for old and AZ for the young simultaneously. Do the Pfizer one in hospitals, clinics and GP surgeries from 9-5 and the AZ one from school halls, church halls and other community locations during evenings and weekends do 2m of each type of jab per week.
I’d suggest alternatives, but I don’t want to get into arguments with the legendarily modest.
Meanwhile the highest case number areas in the Uk are now 1. Swale, north Kent, 2. Medway, north Kent, 3. Basildon, south Essex
Speaking to the nurse who did my jab this morning, it is not just the freezing, reconstitution and shelf life of 6 hours that are a problem, but also the vials need to be kept upright and not shaken or agitated. I think Pfizer is going to find that a problem outside major hubs. There were 8 injection stations at our Leicester hub.
I think 250 000 in 5 days is good work. It takes a while to get the logistics, recording and recall working smoothly, then can speed up a bit.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1372117/brexit-news-uk-eu-trade-talks-boris-johnson-ursula-von-der-leyen-no-deal-latest
They aren't named.
Both sides want a deal or, perhaps more accurately, neither side wants the blame for failing to have a deal. The UK probably wants a deal more because it has a bigger impact on it. So the EU has the power, right?
Not necessarily. In my experience a party that is willing to gamble more, to take the bigger risk, often gets what it wants. Their position may be irrational but if they hold in there sometimes the other side’s desire for a deal means agreement is reached on terms closer to what the reckless party wants than you would expect.
The UK is being reckless here. They are giving the impression of being genuinely willing to risk no deal. That may be what they end up with. But it’s not a sure thing, whatever the objective measure of their respective strengths are.
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1338171268202377217
https://c8930375-0dbb-4319-ae2f-025f70d4b441.filesusr.com/ugd/ab45f7_a40832c6069842e6af33fcf2b06611bf.pdf
The weak part is the EU has the much bigger market and no deal is likely to harm the UK more , the strong part is Johnson is now viewed as willing to burn the whole house down . The EU might be wondering that he might just be crazy enough to go for no deal . I personally think the sovereignty argument is a pile of tosh as all trade agreements mean you give some of that up especially with a big market but he can always revert to that and will have a mostly willing press to argue for him . Personally I don’t see any downsides to him getting a deal . He has an 80 seat majority , the ERG don’t have enough votes to cause him problems . Even if they hate the deal and say they put the letters in , he’d comfortably win that vote . The next election is years away , the public are unlikely to be voting on Brexit if he gets a deal but could well do if he doesn’t and the economy suffers. Interestingly any deal will go to a vote , legally this doesn’t need to happen but I suspect it’s only being done to put Labour in a difficult position .
https://twitter.com/DaveClark_AFP/status/1338183785305792515?s=20
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9049547/War-games-mock-worst-case-scenarios-No-Deal-Brexit-carried-WEEK.html
I hear he spoke very well of you.
The time honored way to win at Chicken may appear irrational, but is highly rational. You signal your absolute determination to win by throwing your steering wheel out of the window (while the other driver is watching so he/she knows what you have done). The other driver then knows that he/she cannot win - the 'best' they can achieve is a head-on collision, so the only rational option left at that point is for that other driver to steer away and lose.
Will is about the most important thing in negotiations - look at Putin.
He's incapable of being serious
Even being seen to give in to such negotiating tactics will harm all the EU's negotiations with other parties.
For neither side is avoiding no deal really a matter of life and death, they both have other things to consider.
This will include, how they negotiate other deals. If the EU allows German car manufacturers to come in at the last minute and insist that the EU gives in to all the other side's demands because Britain is crazy, it will also undermine the ability of the EU to stick to an agreed position in any other negotiations.
It will be good if Shagger gets a deal that avoids tariffs. He is though going to sign a deal which imposes massive red tape costs and logistics delays costs on the UK. Taking a day or two to cross the border is hardly a better scenario for Britain than spending 2 minutes crossing the border as now.
Also doesn't work well when playing head on chicken in a mini vs an articulated lorry.
Being crazy in negotiations is not an advantage, when it is an ongoing relationship rather than a one off. We cannot change geography, so have to have an ongoing relationship.
This is the problem. Morons who don't have a clue how things work. If people buying cars have to pay a 10% import tariff it's 10% on cars from anywhere. If people eating food have to pay tariffs you can't bypass it buying from somewhere else.
This is why Shagger will desperately avoid no deal if he can. Because the consequence of how the world works not being as they have told people won't go down well. Its not EU tariffs. Its tariffs. Its not other people paying the tariffs it's you the consumer. Its not sovereignty over faceless EU courts it's subservience to even more faceless WTO courts
We could also set zero tariffs for all countries too, if we preferred, though once again that carries its own problems.
You're right though, we won't have to pay tariffs on the cars Japan imports from Japan. No need for them to have an EU assembly plant any more, especially one who has been expensively cut off from both it's parts suppliers and it's main market.
In this way the balance of our trade would change. We would, at the margins, import less from the EU and more from elsewhere. Ideally we would have some import substitution as well. Tariffs in this way are a self inflicted wound for the EU who have run a large surplus with us for 20 years. They are designed to protect the EU manufacturers from unfair competition from the UK but they come at the cost of exports and jobs.